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Speaker 1: Oh absolutely, I don't think Brian. From the years we've

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done this, I've seen an MVRV that bad on a

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thirty day.

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Speaker 2: I know, I know.

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Speaker 3: I think ever since this big drop here in mid

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May that just caught so many XRP traders off guard

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when they were getting excited about one point fifty and stuff.

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This just decimated a lot of people and we saw

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just a massive drop off from there.

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Speaker 1: Hey, folks, welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast. I'm your host,

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Tony Edward, and joining me is Brian from the Sentiment

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And as you all know, we're going to do a

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deep dive into the metrics on chain metrics for bitcoin

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and the all coins to get an idea what's happening

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in the market and what may come next. Brian, Great

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to see you. Good to see you, Tony.

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Speaker 3: We've got a FOMC decision that's coming up in a

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couple hours, so things are about to go pretty crazy,

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I would imagine, no matter what.

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Speaker 2: But I'm excited to dig in. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: You know, every time there's an FOMC meeting, I've noticed

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from years of setting into markets, there's a lot of

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volatility swings in both ways and you kind of have

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to let the dust settle. But you know, certainly everybody's

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curious to see what Kevin Warsh is gonna do. And

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there's also a lot of talks about the Clarity Act

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and you know, will that pass next week, so lots

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to discuss.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Yeah, from what I've seen on the FOMC expectations,

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we are seeing anywhere between the mid low to mid

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twenty percentile for expectations that an interest rate hike will happen,

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at least according to Polymark and Calci. Many of you

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watching have your own expectations and you'll find out the

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truth by the time this episode gets released. But going

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into the market into that decision, it looks like the

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predominant assumption is if rates hike for some reason, we're

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going to go down. If rates stay the same, we'll

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probably have a moderate uptick, where Trey collectively exhale a bit.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm looking at the CME fed watch tool. It's

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also showing a higher probability that there's no change and

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rates remain the same. But then you'll see if we're

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going to get a dubbish or a hawkish Warsh almost

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at Powell, but you know Warsh exactly the new normal.

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We got to get used to that.

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Speaker 3: Still, I still think of Powell every time there's an

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FOMC meeting, and now we're on our second for warsh here,

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So yeah, it should be interesting. And regarding the Clarity Act,

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it's funny, just about two weeks ago they said we

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are two weeks away from having that decision made. Of

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course that hasn't happened yet, but we're continuing to get

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little breadcrumbs showing us that they're progressing. So we're still

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kind of waiting and seeing on that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I know there's a hard deadline next week because

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the Senate and the House go on August recess, so

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they have to get something passed by next week or

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it's going to be tough to move it later this

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year in an election year. But obviously this is big

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for crypto right It could have a significant impact on

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what happens with bitcoin and all coins. So maybe on

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that no, Brian, we could take a look at the

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sentiment around bitcoin.

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Speaker 4: How are people feeling right now?

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Speaker 2: Sure, let's check it out here.

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Speaker 3: So beginning with just a quick price update, you can

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see at least over the past week, almost call it,

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ninety percent of assets are in the red. You've got

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this anomaly over here, beat up forty six percent, but

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for the most part, you know, Bitcoin back down in

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the sixty four k's. I would imagine that's about to

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get shaken up once we find out the interest rate decision.

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Speaker 2: Ethereum pretty similar.

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Speaker 3: You got Solana and XRP down six percent each collectively.

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So when we check out the sentiment for those, I

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wouldn't be surprised if they're a little.

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Speaker 2: In the negative.

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Speaker 3: But what's interesting here, Tony, is look how much the

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social volume is up fairly across the board, Bitcoin seeing

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a six percent rising discussions overall compared last week, Ethereum

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eighteen and a half percent rise, Tether or even plus

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sixteen percent, And you can see it kind of across

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the board here, just a lot of assets with interest rates,

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not that kind of interest rate, but the amount of

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discussion related to them spiking a bit heading into this

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FOMC decision. And of course, like you said, the Clarity

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Act and the increased focus on cryptocurrencies as we get

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closer to.

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Speaker 4: That regards to the MVRV, what does that look like.

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Speaker 3: So for mvrvs, when we look at the average trading

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returns for traders that have been active in the past

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thirty days, it's pretty much break even right now. Bitcoin

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thirty day holders are plus one point one percent, so

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not much of a signal in either direction there. However,

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long term still down at negative twenty six percent. I

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would expect that we continue to see this healthily in

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the negative range, which does create a slight bullish signal

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if you're in it for the long term. Remember that

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if you're looking at the thirty day and you want

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a trading strategy, look at it as how am I

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going to do over the next thirty days relative to

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what the traders have just done over their past thirty days,

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And if they're plus one point one not much of

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a signal. But if you're planning to hold for a year,

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this line here signals that you would be doing so

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with much less risk than average. So I continue to

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look at this as good news, and as you would expect,

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most assets right now are going to be well into

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the negative range for three hundred and sixty five day.

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If we take a look at ethereum, it's going to

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be a little bit lower on the three sixty five day,

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way down at negative thirty three percent, So again, very

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good signal there the thirty day because there's been a

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bit of a rebound over the past month. If we

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go back to June thirtieth, until now, ethereum is up

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about twenty one percent, So the thirty day traders are

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only up plus three and.

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Speaker 2: A half percent because there's so much.

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Speaker 3: Call it incorrect decision making on the way up, where

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people buy at the top, sell at the bottom, so

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on and so forth.

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Speaker 1: How about XRP on that note, maybe it's a similar situation.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, XRP. I still remember our talk from last

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time about how it was getting extremely low in early July,

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and now it's even worse because XRP hasn't done much

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to write the ship yet. And the thirty day MVRV

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is a whopping negative fifty seven and a half percent,

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which is about as low as it gets. You can see,

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was actually slightly off my little custom acts this year,

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all the way down to negative seventy two percent in

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late May and the three sixty five days at negative

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forty five percent. So this continues to be a very

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very bullish signal. It doesn't mean we're going to turn

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around immediately, but if you're looking for a specific asset

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where you're buying with objective blood in the street from

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other traders, this is the one you'd be wanting to

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look at.

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Speaker 1: Oh absolutely, I don't think, Brian. From the years we've

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done this, I've seen an MVRV that bad on a

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thirty day.

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Speaker 2: I know, I know.

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Speaker 3: I think ever since this big drop here in mid

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May that just caught so many XRP traders off guard

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when they were getting excited about one point fifty and stuff.

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This just decimated a lot of people and we saw

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just a massive drop off from there.

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Speaker 1: So I wonder, you know, could we get and this

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is potentially now not guaranteed, some good news on the Clariac.

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Let's say to send it passes it. Some of these

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coins start to rip, and because they were all ways

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underwater for the most part, you know, that's where the

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fomo kicks saying, oh my god, it's pumping again. We

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got good news. But I'll see they're not looking at data,

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just going by the sentiment and emotions. But you could

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position yourself based on this data and other data points,

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of course not financial wise, and be on the right

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side of that trade.

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Speaker 2: Exactly.

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Speaker 3: I think the theory is once we do turn toward

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a bull cycle, the assets that have got hammered the most,

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and MVRV is the best way to see what those

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by low assets really are. These are the ones that

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will theoretically pump the most, just based on a regression

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to the mean happening.

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Speaker 4: Oh absolutely, I don't remember. Is there a Solana version

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for this.

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Speaker 3: No, Salona MVRV. But we do have sentiment if you

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want to switch over to that side. Yeah, let's look

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at sentiment. We'll go through bitcoin eat XRP Sjuana perfect.

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Speaker 2: So bitcoin is about average.

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Speaker 3: I was actually affecting a little more, you know, up

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and down here, but I think the consensus has kind

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of been the same for the past few weeks, where

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there's a moderate chance of an interest rate hike, but

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not enough to really freak people out with like a

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sudden news report that it's very likely or you know,

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not likely at all. So people have kind of stayed

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steady here, and I would call this just about dead

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average on the sentiment. When you talk about all of

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the positive commentary and all of the negative commentary toward

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bitcoin across rudd it, Telegram, four chan, x et cetera,

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we're kind of smack dab in the middle, and I

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expect it's gonna either skew way up if interest rates

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go unchanged, which is the most likely outcome, or way

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down if worsh pulls a little surprise rabbit out of

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his hat.

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Speaker 2: And he does hike rates.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, there is a lot of uncertainty to your point

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with regards to what the Fed's going to do, but

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also the Clarity Act. There's a lot of back and forth.

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People liked saying, hey, we're not we don't agree to

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this draft of the bill, and it looks like I'm

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gonna get done. Democrats pushing back, banking lobby pushing back.

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Speaker 4: So a lot of uncertainty out.

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Speaker 2: There, exactly.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean there's just so many waiting and seeing

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periods right now, even going back to when the war

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was at its.

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Speaker 2: Peak, you know, media coverage.

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Speaker 3: We saw the same thing here in late May where

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people got super positive when Trump said that a ceasefire

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was imminent and then surprised that didn't quite happen. And

201
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then even these mini tops here, anytime people got a

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little too.

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Speaker 2: Positive, down we go positive slight downwards.

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Speaker 3: This little segment right here where people were just excited

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because we got back above sixty six k and then

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down we've gone just a couple thousand ever since.

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Speaker 4: HM, and how is ethereum looking.

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Speaker 3: So Ethereum has been on a decent price run and

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we can see that price has reflect or sorry, sentiment

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has reflected that pretty well. This spike here on the

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twenty seventh, This was Monday. This was the highest sentiment

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we've seen in about five weeks, give or take. And

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from what I see, there is a little bit of

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a warning signal due to the fact that we're skewing

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a bit too bullish as a crowd right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I know a lot of people have been talking

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about Ethan how it's outperforming bitcoin, and to your point

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of crowd just starts to get too bullish and then

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you know, I'm sure the market has to correct to

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reset that sentiment a bit.

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Speaker 3: And it's not like they're outperforming thems performing them significantly.

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We can look because we have a little metric called

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price BTC, and we can see the ratio and this

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and I'll just hide the other two things here for

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a minute. So this line shows you can see in

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the top left of top left of my screen when

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I hover the mouse. The ratio is getting pretty close

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to point oh three for the first time in a

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long time.

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Speaker 2: Actually, it did go above briefly a couple of days ago.

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Speaker 3: Maybe that's what people saw, a nice little round number

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ratio that got them excited. But regardless, it basically the

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ratio is back to where it was in late April.

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So when people say, oh, it's it's outperforming for the

235
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long run, I call it about a three month high.

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But that doesn't mean that we should be too excited,

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especially when we look at the ratio over the last year,

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where you know, we had it way up at about

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point oh four to two, so a long way to

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go there. But you know, the Ethereum crowd, for those

241
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still on the on the eighth train and they're staying

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away from bitcoin, called this a nice minor.

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Speaker 2: Celebration that they're enjoying right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think people are looking for any sign of

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hope because we've been in the bear market. That did

246
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they this little uptake? Oh my god, let's get it's

247
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where back right, It's the same sentiment. It's so funny

248
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how it plays out. You see it on crypto Twitter

249
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and other social platforms. Absolutely, how's XRP sentiment looking so.

250
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Speaker 2: As you would expouse.

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Speaker 3: Sorry, this is the raw prices compared to Bitcoin, which

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looks devastating as you'd expect with the way XRP has

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been performing.

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Speaker 2: So XRP.

255
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Speaker 3: It's kind of had some violent mood swings yesterday and

256
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even today it's up a little bit. I would assume

257
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this is probably related to some Clarity Act optimism and

258
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interest rate optimism. The XRP community is really just looking

259
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for something to celebrate right now, because there's been a

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lot of positive news, even stuff that we've been able

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to report throughout twenty twenty six, but it just hasn't

262
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reflected in the price yet. So you know, call right now,

263
00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:58,120
right now a little bit above average in terms of

264
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bullish sentiment. But I I don't see any significant pattern here, Tony.

265
00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:06,240
It's just kind of zig zagging up and down. As

266
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you know, Bulls try to buy what they think is

267
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the final dip, and bears continue to lol at all

268
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of the blood that continues to pour in on XRP traders.

269
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Speaker 1: And let's take a look at Solana, but also if

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we can after Solana Cardono, because there's been a lot

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of news around Cardono being a dead project, Charles Hostinson

272
00:14:32,039 --> 00:14:34,240
getting criticized a bit, So I want to take a

273
00:14:34,279 --> 00:14:35,480
look at that one after Solana.

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00:14:35,879 --> 00:14:38,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, and Cardona actually did have a very good day yesterday,

275
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one of the few green assets going up a modest

276
00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:43,799
six percent while most were down.

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Speaker 2: So for sure we'll look at that one.

278
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Speaker 3: Solana a little bit of a bullish bias at the moment.

279
00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:53,320
It looks like, Yeah, it looks like the ratio is

280
00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:55,799
up at around four to one in terms of bullish

281
00:14:55,879 --> 00:15:02,000
versus bearish commentary. And I I'm not positive on what

282
00:15:02,039 --> 00:15:04,399
the catalyst would be here for Solana, but it does

283
00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:07,480
look as though there has been a pretty clear.

284
00:15:09,039 --> 00:15:10,320
Speaker 2: Up trend in sentiment.

285
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Speaker 3: I can even we'll make these like weak candles instead

286
00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:17,240
of daily and that'll show that this week is by

287
00:15:17,279 --> 00:15:21,200
far the highest sentiment we've seen of the year. It

288
00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:24,759
looks like make sure of that fact. Yeah, the last

289
00:15:24,799 --> 00:15:28,120
time we go when this high was mid December, and

290
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as we've talked about, it's not ideal when you see

291
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these big bullish sentiment spikes. This was the biggest year

292
00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:40,879
in mid September and that was legitimately the optimal time

293
00:15:40,919 --> 00:15:41,320
to sell.

294
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Speaker 2: Yeah.

295
00:15:42,799 --> 00:15:45,320
Speaker 4: Wow, hmm.

296
00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:49,519
Speaker 1: I wonder what's causing that, especially the price action doesn't

297
00:15:49,559 --> 00:15:52,600
reflect it at all, So I know's some.

298
00:15:52,679 --> 00:15:58,360
Speaker 3: News and they are a bit more known for having

299
00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:01,960
some heavy bought activity. I would assume it's not Solana's

300
00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:06,840
project itself, but many people have bots that kind of

301
00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:11,919
spew out bullish Solana sentiment for days at a time

302
00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:14,679
and then they go away for a while, so it

303
00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:17,679
can be a little chaotic and misleading with Solana. So

304
00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:20,320
I always take this sentiment and with a bit of

305
00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:21,080
a grain of salt.

306
00:16:21,679 --> 00:16:24,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm about Cardono.

307
00:16:24,639 --> 00:16:29,720
Speaker 3: So Cardano with its outperformance, you would expect a little

308
00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:30,960
bit of an uptick, but.

309
00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:35,519
Speaker 2: We're not really seeing that right now. It's staying. Yeah.

310
00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:37,559
Speaker 3: The ratio over the last week is at about one

311
00:16:37,639 --> 00:16:40,279
point seven to one, which is really not that special

312
00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:43,799
at all. We go daily, let's zoom in here, just

313
00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:47,080
the past three months. Yeah, really not a lot of

314
00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:52,159
bullish sentiment in spite of this mild mild rebound while other.

315
00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:53,600
Speaker 2: Assets were not rebounding.

316
00:16:54,279 --> 00:16:57,279
Speaker 3: So this didn't really turn that many heads right now,

317
00:16:57,320 --> 00:17:00,840
And I would say the waters look pretty safe for Gardano.

318
00:17:00,919 --> 00:17:05,240
If you're trying to counter trade the crowd.

319
00:17:05,079 --> 00:17:08,720
Speaker 1: Sentiment, I think one thing we didn't get to look

320
00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:10,400
at was the bitcoin whale data.

321
00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:12,279
Speaker 4: I'm curious what they've been over to.

322
00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:18,039
Speaker 3: Yeah, so we've had some encouraging movement back in the

323
00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:21,799
right direction for key stakeholders. We actually reported on this

324
00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:24,880
a couple of days ago, and it's kind of come

325
00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:29,240
back down just slightly. But I'd call this a mild

326
00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:32,200
win for bitcoin's future.

327
00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:32,599
Speaker 2: Right now.

328
00:17:33,079 --> 00:17:36,680
Speaker 3: We've seen an accumulation just since call it the past

329
00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:41,519
ten days, of about eighteen point five k etc. Back

330
00:17:41,559 --> 00:17:45,599
into the key stakeholders wallets that hold ten to ten kbtc.

331
00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:50,880
The issue that I see is that retailers just continue

332
00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:56,319
to buy any dips that they can find, and their

333
00:17:56,359 --> 00:18:00,480
optimism appears quite high based on them put their money

334
00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:02,599
where their mouth is. I know we see mixed signals

335
00:18:02,599 --> 00:18:05,640
with sentiment, but when you look at the really small wallets,

336
00:18:06,039 --> 00:18:07,079
they're continuing to.

337
00:18:07,079 --> 00:18:08,279
Speaker 2: Add more and more.

338
00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:11,680
Speaker 3: Albeit they don't own a lot of bitcoin overall, since

339
00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:15,960
they're the smallest here in bitcoin. But this does still

340
00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:20,599
give a nice reflection of what kind of the quote

341
00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:24,000
unquote dumb money is doing, and doesn't mean they're all

342
00:18:24,079 --> 00:18:27,680
dumb traders. Of course, plenty of smart people own very

343
00:18:27,759 --> 00:18:31,000
very tiny wallets. But the reason we look at the

344
00:18:31,039 --> 00:18:34,640
red as a counter signal is it very often will

345
00:18:36,519 --> 00:18:40,759
lead to bad news for bitcoin if they continue to accumulate,

346
00:18:40,839 --> 00:18:43,880
and good news if they start to dump. Even like

347
00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:45,799
we saw right here in the beginning of May when

348
00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:48,680
we finally got that local top and we were up

349
00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:51,440
above eighty k and things were looking really good. That

350
00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:54,920
happened to be when retail was actually selling for a

351
00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:55,880
short amount of time.

352
00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:59,799
Speaker 1: So, h I wonder how it's going to play out,

353
00:19:00,279 --> 00:19:02,960
you know, is there one more flush down that just

354
00:19:03,599 --> 00:19:06,160
wrecks a lot of people and they get very scared. Right,

355
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:09,039
maybe I'm moved down to fifty k. They thought, maybe

356
00:19:09,079 --> 00:19:11,839
the bottom is in at sixty k. You never know,

357
00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:13,880
you know, that's certain instant aara that could play out, But.

358
00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:15,559
Speaker 2: We'll have to wait and see.

359
00:19:15,839 --> 00:19:18,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I wanted to point out the trending stories

360
00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:21,799
that we have right now because, as you would expect,

361
00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:24,880
the FOMC decision is number one. I have seen the

362
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,640
Clarity Act up and down on this list today. It

363
00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:30,839
appears to be off because I'm assuming a lot of

364
00:19:30,839 --> 00:19:33,839
those same people are just looking at the FOMC decision,

365
00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:38,559
which is right in our crosshairs now. But yeah, based

366
00:19:38,599 --> 00:19:43,920
on our collection of discussions that gets put into our

367
00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:48,519
AI system and then posted on the dashboard, it says

368
00:19:48,559 --> 00:19:51,720
the social chatter centers on today's fom CEED decision Kevin

369
00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:56,160
Worsh's press conference as the key market catalyst, consensus expects

370
00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:59,200
a rate hold roughly sixty to eighty percent, but many

371
00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:02,160
traders price twenty to thirty five percent chance of a

372
00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:06,039
twenty five BP hike, so elevated uncertainty.

373
00:20:06,559 --> 00:20:09,079
Speaker 2: You get the idea. So, you know, the.

374
00:20:09,039 --> 00:20:11,920
Speaker 3: Bullish argument is there's a dubbish tone or hint at cuts,

375
00:20:12,319 --> 00:20:15,960
sparking quick crypto and equity rallies, and there is this

376
00:20:16,079 --> 00:20:20,480
surprise twenty five BP hike or pockage tone. So we

377
00:20:20,519 --> 00:20:23,279
can be fairly sure that rates are going to stay

378
00:20:23,319 --> 00:20:26,279
the same, but until that becomes a one hundred percent certainty,

379
00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:30,720
especially with the way this year has gone, with you know,

380
00:20:30,799 --> 00:20:34,440
making assumptions about how the state of the world is

381
00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:38,079
going to be, you really don't know until you get

382
00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:41,319
that stamp of certainty.

383
00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:45,640
Speaker 1: M Yeah, well, I guess well, Brian, we are recording

384
00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:49,440
this before the FLMC meeting on Wednesday, July twenty ninth,

385
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:51,960
So this is going to air tomorrow, so we'll see

386
00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:55,559
what the results are. But certainly, you know, you're looking

387
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:56,200
at everything.

388
00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:57,680
Speaker 2: We are in a bear market.

389
00:20:57,759 --> 00:20:59,640
Speaker 1: I don't think we can confirm that the bottom is

390
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:01,960
in or we've turned a corner, so we still have

391
00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:04,160
to be cautious out there. But you know, one thing

392
00:21:04,279 --> 00:21:06,880
I really like is the looking at that MVR E

393
00:21:07,079 --> 00:21:10,200
heart because it could really gives a signal ass to

394
00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:12,480
you know, a position you can take if again, you

395
00:21:12,559 --> 00:21:14,759
still have to have that long term view, but it

396
00:21:14,759 --> 00:21:17,279
could work out really well, you know, based on how

397
00:21:17,279 --> 00:21:17,920
things are looking.

398
00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:19,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, totally.

399
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:22,240
Speaker 3: And and Bitcoin, you know, as long as this blue

400
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:25,799
line stays nice and low in the negatives because average

401
00:21:25,799 --> 00:21:29,559
long term traders are well in the red, that's your

402
00:21:29,599 --> 00:21:32,240
signal that you'd be buying in right now with a

403
00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:35,920
very limited floor, if that makes sense. Yeah, the ceiling

404
00:21:36,039 --> 00:21:40,240
is still a bit iffy because of these hold ups

405
00:21:40,319 --> 00:21:44,240
with the Clarity Act, and you know, even the ongoing

406
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:48,839
Middle East conflict, which is still not a certain uh

407
00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:51,519
still doesn't have a certain end in sight, even though

408
00:21:51,519 --> 00:21:55,680
there's less media coverage now, there's just a few things

409
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:59,559
that are keeping us from seeing that that big bullish

410
00:21:59,599 --> 00:22:02,359
breakout that I know so many people are awaiting, and

411
00:22:02,559 --> 00:22:05,079
of course we're also for people on the four year

412
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:09,960
cycle theory, which I think does have legitimacy. You know,

413
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:14,200
many people are just awaiting twenty twenty seven, which is

414
00:22:14,519 --> 00:22:18,680
supposed to be the when things really heat up for

415
00:22:18,799 --> 00:22:21,720
bitcoin and crypto based on just the having cycles and

416
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:22,440
stuff like that.

417
00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:27,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, back in October of twenty twenty five,

418
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:31,319
it looked like, let's say, the four year cycle, what's

419
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:34,200
going to break just because of ETFs and all these

420
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:36,480
different things that happened. But it played out to a

421
00:22:36,519 --> 00:22:40,519
t and I think, if I'm not mistaken, if you're

422
00:22:40,559 --> 00:22:46,039
counting days, that bitcoin technically should bottom come the fall.

423
00:22:46,799 --> 00:22:49,880
And that doesn't mean we're going to rebound right away.

424
00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:52,599
But to your point, twenty twenty seven is going to

425
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:55,920
be a better year, possibly a up year.

426
00:22:56,279 --> 00:22:59,440
Speaker 2: That makes sense. Yeah, that's how a lot of us

427
00:22:59,519 --> 00:22:59,880
see it.

428
00:22:59,839 --> 00:23:03,359
Speaker 3: For sure, and we've talked about it before. It's such

429
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:06,160
a small sample size looking at these four year cycles

430
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:10,000
for a sector that's really only existed for about eighteen years,

431
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:12,640
so there's what four and a half there's been four

432
00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:14,759
and a half total cycles, if you want to count

433
00:23:14,759 --> 00:23:20,240
it that way, things can eventually break, but you know,

434
00:23:20,279 --> 00:23:23,480
if the crowd starts to think it's breaking, that that

435
00:23:23,519 --> 00:23:27,160
almost creates a self fulfilling prophecy and makes that cycle

436
00:23:27,279 --> 00:23:29,599
click back into gear more likely.

437
00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 2: In a weird way.

438
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:34,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, you can see all the highs and lows. I

439
00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:38,359
just went back eight years here, and you know, twenty

440
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:44,440
eighteen is the same crosshair or whatever, the same year

441
00:23:44,599 --> 00:23:47,599
as what twenty twenty six is relative to the four

442
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,680
year cycle. And that was exactly where we bottomed out,

443
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,519
as you said, kind of in that toward the end

444
00:23:53,559 --> 00:23:57,519
of that year, you saw the MVRV way down at

445
00:23:57,559 --> 00:23:59,640
negative fifty three percent. Let me make it just a

446
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:03,039
little larger for everyone. So yeah, negative fifty three percent

447
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:06,279
way back in December of twenty eighteen, and that was

448
00:24:06,319 --> 00:24:09,480
your ideal by time, and we went on that enormous rally.

449
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:13,720
Then people got super excited at thirteen K, which looked

450
00:24:13,759 --> 00:24:16,200
like just a huge number at the time, and then

451
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:19,920
eventually we fall and COVID and Black Thursday happens and

452
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:22,839
all this stuff, and that ends up being the ideal

453
00:24:22,839 --> 00:24:23,279
by time.

454
00:24:23,319 --> 00:24:23,599
Speaker 2: Again.

455
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:27,279
Speaker 3: You can see how these blue lines though whenever they're

456
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:32,000
negative one, two, three, And this is really the fourth

457
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:35,799
largest blue cycle negative blue cycle we've had in the

458
00:24:35,839 --> 00:24:38,920
last eight years. Every single time this has happened, if

459
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:41,680
you can withstand it for a few weeks or a

460
00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:45,200
few months, you typically get rewarded. And of course it's

461
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:49,200
not investment advice. Anything can happen, but playing the odds

462
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:53,240
and probabilities, which is really what you know, these kind

463
00:24:53,279 --> 00:24:58,000
of metrics are best used for you can be pretty

464
00:24:58,039 --> 00:25:00,440
handsomely rewarded at the end of the day.

465
00:25:00,559 --> 00:25:02,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is such a great view zoomed out because

466
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:06,400
you see it all the cycle peaks, all the cycle bottoms.

467
00:25:07,039 --> 00:25:10,519
See when the long term traders are underwater, and right

468
00:25:10,559 --> 00:25:13,319
now they are death most definitely underwater.

469
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:15,960
Speaker 4: And it could be there's a little.

470
00:25:15,759 --> 00:25:17,680
Speaker 1: Bit more to go, or it could be maybe in

471
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:21,200
the next month or so, there's a reversal. But you know,

472
00:25:21,319 --> 00:25:24,200
for just going based on the data and the historical movements,

473
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:26,359
it looks like there's maybe a little bit more to go.

474
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:30,160
And but to your point, in one of those what

475
00:25:30,279 --> 00:25:35,559
you may call generational opportunities, right to just load up

476
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,000
and then just sit back and you know, give it

477
00:25:38,039 --> 00:25:41,079
a couple of years and then you'll it flips to

478
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:46,119
the upside. Yeah, Well, said, well, Brian, I don't know

479
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:47,920
if we're gonna meet in a couple of weeks, but

480
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:51,960
you know, we'll we'll figure it out. But hopefully to

481
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:54,440
your point, some sort of bottom is in and we

482
00:25:54,559 --> 00:25:57,880
started we start to slowly steadily climb out of this hole.

483
00:25:58,519 --> 00:25:59,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, fingers crossed.

484
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:03,160
Speaker 3: I think step one is make sure interest rates don't

485
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:06,160
get hiked. If they do, you know, there's still some paths,

486
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:10,319
but I think I think here at Sanceman, we're pretty

487
00:26:10,319 --> 00:26:13,400
hopeful that you know, going into Q three at least

488
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:15,680
we start to see some some pretty nice news. If

489
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:19,160
not earlier, oh, absolutely, especially in an election year. And

490
00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:22,400
not to get into politics, but I would think that

491
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:25,480
President Trump would want to go into the midterms with

492
00:26:25,559 --> 00:26:28,839
the markets looking good, you know, at least at the upcurn. Yeah,

493
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,400
US politics, whether we like it or not, it does

494
00:26:31,559 --> 00:26:34,319
matter a lot when it comes to crypto and will

495
00:26:34,559 --> 00:26:35,440
continue to do so.

496
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:39,079
Speaker 1: Absolutely, But Brian, thank you so much, and catching the

497
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:39,519
next one.

498
00:26:40,079 --> 00:26:40,759
Speaker 2: Thanks my friend,