Speaker 1: Divisional weekend in the NFL, like VR likes to say,
just pick the winner up next.
Speaker 2: I'm beat on it.
Speaker 1: Kelly Stewart here, Marco DiAngelo front and center, and VR
Yanni corrals over there.
Speaker 2: To my right. VR I alluded to in the opening
that it's just picked the winner weekend.
Speaker 1: How do you approach the divisional round because of course
we know I'm going to have those teasers.
Speaker 3: Yeah, once we get to the playoffs, the point spread
plays a very small role historically. Now we're all going
to remember that time where it didn't happen, or last
week where the Rams won but didn't cover. But historically
the favorite either wins comfortably or the dog wins outright.
That's just a history of the NFL playoffs. In fact,
in the wildcard round, the conference championship round, it's close
to ninety percent, and overall in the playoffs you're talking
eighty plus percent eighty five percent of the time. So
you're in that probability where eight out of ten times
or greater, all you have to do is pick the winner.
Don't even look at the number, look at the teams.
This is the opposite of what we're supposed to be doing.
But when you get to the playoffs, you gotta trust history,
and history tells us that the point spread plays a
very small role in determining the winner as far as
cashing a ticket, and if you're able to determine the
winner of the game, the probability of cashing that ticket
is great. Unlike a regular season, you could pick the
right side, and we always say this spread becomes the
great equalizer, but when you get to the playoffs, that
just hasn't been the case. The spread hasn't been the equalizer.
And we'll see if it holds true throughout these playoffs.
But history tells us if you could pick the winner,
you'll cast your ticket.
Speaker 1: Marco, I know you've already been doing some videos over
on the Wager Talking YouTube channel regarding the NFL playoffs,
but let our bet on it audience, know how you
approach not only the NFL playoffs, but specifically the divisional rounds.
Speaker 4: Well, Kelly, when you look at the divisional round, and
for me, I like to look at it, is take
the team that had a scare in that first round, okay,
because the market likes to overreact and this has been
a situation for me, whether it be first round. You
know you're coming in we see generally, now we didn't
last week. There's vr said last week, we've never seen
as many home underdogs in the playoffs. Now you saw
a lot of those ones that opened up his home
underdogs ended up crossing over and being the favorite, you
know at game time, the Jacksonville Buffalo game, you know,
for instance. But you generally we'll have some bigger spreads
in those first round games. And if you get one
of those teams that has a scare, it's a wake
up call. You know they're gonna come back with a
focused effort the next week. Maybe it was a situation
where you know, they rested starters in the last week
or two because they didn't have anything to play for,
they were locked into their position, whatever. But when you
have a scare and you survive, I like to look
for those teams in the next round because you're gonna
get that focused effort from the start, and you're generally
gonna get a little bit of line value. And that's
what we're always looking for. Where's the value in the
line Because the public likes to bet with what they
saw last and if they think a team won lucky,
they're gonna look to go against them, and it's gonna
create value for you. Those are things that I like
to look at.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but Marco, the Bears win lucky every single week. Anyway,
we're gonna get to that game in a little bit.
We're just gonna go in order of the games we got.
Each of us are gonna have a best bet, and
then we'll break down the one game they gut left off.
But we know you still guys want a little bit
if we know you guys still would like a little
information on it, So I'm gonna go first because Saturday
at four thirty Eastern, my Denver Broncos are taken on
the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 2: And this is interesting because if you open up your
Odds logic.
Speaker 1: Screen, Broncos plus one and a half, Broncos pick them.
I think it's all determining on who is trying to
protect themselves from teasers on that end. But that's a
whole nother debate based on your specific sportsbook. So I'm
just gonna tell you hand up, I am the residentt
Broncos fan. But if you guys remember all season long,
I have been screaming from the mountaintops. Something has to give.
Last year, Broncos as underdogs win on an absolute tear.
This year, Broncos's favorites woof eight in one straight up,
five and four against the spread at home this season,
but they've been a favorite in every single one of
those home games. But one now, something to keep in
mind here Denver's defense. When's the last time the Denver
Broncos won a Super Bowl? That's right, Peyton Manning, who
didn't have a whole lot to do with it. Remember
the guy with the glove, the game manager. Yeah, that's right,
that Denver defense and Von Miller who ended up being
MVP in that one. That is because this defense is vaulted.
They've just finished the regular season eighth in EPA per play,
first in success rate allowed. Now, granted, down the stretch,
they didn't look very competitive because they played a team's
name the Commanders, the Raiders.
Speaker 2: And the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: But they lead the league in sacks by a wide margin.
They have sixty eight sacks on the season. Broncos have
big boys on that front seven that I think are
going to put a lot of pressure on the Bills
offensive line. Let's see how the Bills defense does though.
Ranking twenty eighth in rushing EPA. Over the last four weeks,
they have not done well, but I will say they
put a lot of pressure on opposing quarterback. So if
bo Nicks does make mistakes, the Broncos will lose this
football game. I do not think that that is going
to be the case, though. I'm gonna take the better
defense here plus the points. As I mentioned, how could
you not want to just tease the Denver Broncos here again, guys,
look for those minus one, ten, minus one twenty teasers
at the most. You've got a Buffalo team now headed
on the road again after a rock fight in Jacksonville,
Denver has now had a week to lick those wounds,
heal up and get ready for the playoffs here. I
really like what Sean Payton's done here in Denver, And
I know I was really hard on this Broncos team
because they were not covering by margin. But again, better
defense plus the point, give me the Denver Broncos. Marco DiAngelo,
you are very hard on your teams and your team.
Speaker 2: Is now out. How do you feel about Mike Tomlin
getting canned, I mean sorry, asked to step down?
Speaker 4: Now? He resigned? He resigned and we did it. If
you remember, I did a show. It was one of
the editions of Wager Talk Today a Friday back in
the first week in December, and I said exactly what
was gonna happen when the season ended, he was going
to resign. It's just the Steeler way. They weren't going
to fire him out of respect to him, he would
step down, and that's what happened. It's gonna be fun
to see who the next head coach is gonna be. Kelly.
I'm sixty four years old, and I beat it to death.
I've only seen three head coaches for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
This will be the fourth one. Whoever they hire. A
lot of names are floating around. I know one name
that everybody is floating around, and there's no way he's
leaving college football. But I will say if he ever
left college football for an NFL job, it would be
this one. But it's not actually the Steeler way because
they've always went ever since you go, when Chuck Noles
started to Bill Cower to Mike Tomlin, they always went
with a young coach and that would eliminate the name
Kurt Signetti because he is sixty four years old. You know,
when you get hired by the Steelers, it's generally a
fifteen to twenty year hiring. You know, that would put
him too old at the end of that contract. But
Marcus Freeman's name is floating around. We'll see. They're supposed
to be a press conference today at Notre Dame. We'll
see what happens. But I'm excited about it. It was
time and we'll see what happens. But for my game
on Saturday, Kelly, San Francisco travels to Seattle, and we'll
start with the first thing. That's the big factor in
this game. We don't have Siriani calling plays in this game,
so that's gonna be a big problem for San Francisco.
I don't know why last week Philadelphia, we've you know,
beat it to death all year, why they didn't continue
to attack the running game and manhandle San Francisco. We've
made points about the defense in all of the injuries
all year, and Philadelphia was rolling on the ground and
they let the game get, you know, away from They
let San Francisco stay in that game, and then San Francisco,
as they do, got the lead in the fourth quarter
and found a way to win. They made the plays.
Give them credit. Christian McCaffrey's a one man wrecking crew.
But when you look at this matchup, it is an
absolute horrible matchup for the forty nine ers. These two
teams just played two weeks ago, and you're gonna look
at it and say, Okay, it was a thirteen to
three score and San Francisco was down, you know, in
the fourth quarter, down inside the ten yard line before
they turned the ball over that sealed the game for Seattle.
That's true. And Seattle did leave them hanging around in
that game with a couple of mistakes early on, a
couple coaching decisions, you know, some fourth down plays where
we didn't put points on the board or end up
having a penalty that you know, killed a drive. But
if you watched that game, that was the most lopsided
statistical domination that I have seen from a team that
only won by ten points. It was ridiculous. Seattle from
start to finish suffocated Seattle. San Francisco or excuse me,
San Francisco. They couldn't stop Seattle's offense. They moved up
and down the field. And the big thing about it
is and why I think it'll be even better now
for Seattle. Saam Darnold exercised those ghosts that he had,
and it was hanging over him all year long, no
matter how good of a season he had overall last year,
all anybody remembered was the final two games of the season.
The final game of the regular season against Detroit, which
determined who had home field advantage in the playoffs, the
division winner, and the first playoff game. Well, it was
deja vu for him two weeks ago because he was
in the exact same situation. He was playing for the
division title in the number one seed, and had he
lost that game, everybody would have had the same narrative
here is you know Sam Darnold and what we saw
with the New York Jets, Well, he exercised those demons.
He got the win, and he got it on the road.
I think this team is going to have a very
good game defensively, their sound top to bottom. I have
Seattle in Houston as one in one as the two
best defenses in the NFL, and I just don't see
San Francisco with all of the injuries, and they suffered
an another one with Kittle being out. I gotta go
with Seattle. I gotta go ahead and lay the points.
When you look at this number, they brought it out
over a touchdown for a reason. Lay the points with Seattle.
And yes, Kelly, there'll be some teasers with Seattle.
Speaker 2: Oh, Marco took the words right out of my mouth.
Speaker 1: Marco. I know this is your best bet for the
divisional round, but you also have some other plays over on.
Speaker 2: Wager talk dot com. Can you let everybody know where
to get those?
Speaker 4: Yeah, Kelly, and we talked about it last week. The deal,
it's a no brainer. You guys love that Weekend Warrior
package for forty nine dollars, but if you want to
play all week long and get every play from every
sport from your favorite handicapper, it's a no brainer. Weekend
Warriors forty nine bucks, twenty dollars more for sixty nine
dollars this week, you can get seven days. That's what
we charge for a three day package. You're getting seven
Head on over to wager talk dot com, get your
favorite handicapper. And oh, by the way, those include any
five percent plays and remember five percent play by itself
sells four thirty five dollars. We're forty one and nineteen
on the last two years with those five percent plays,
pretty good shot that there'll be a five percent play
in the next seven days. Head on over to wagertalk
dot com grab your favorite cap or now.
Speaker 1: VR is gonna break down the Bears game. Of course
he is, but not yet. First we got to go
to the three pm game on Sunday. Sorry to our
graphics guy, we're out of order. Here there we go,
graphics guy, his name's Dan Alexander.
Speaker 2: You guys know him from wager talk dot com. I
don't mean to disparage.
Speaker 1: Him in any of the slightest Patriots now up to
three and a half, starting to see those pop on
the Odds logic screen versus the Texans forty and a
half VR. I'm gonna ask your opinion first, but I
wanted to get your thoughts. Marco mentioned that he thought
this Texas Texans defense was one of the best in
the league in terms of a power rating perspective.
Speaker 2: How do you have these two teams rated?
Speaker 1: And do you agree with him on that defensive statement?
Speaker 3: Houston's number one defense and that was against the number
six strength of schedule. So this as legit as you're
gonna get when it comes to defense, like, it's not
against the even Seattle, who's number two defensively. They did
it against the number thirteen and fourteen toughest strength of schedule,
so they had a lot easier road than Houston. Houston
is legit the number one defense in the NFL. Now,
you know me, I keep it real. Tell you when
I win, tell you when I lose. Finished the NFL
season number one in profit, just like in college football,
did really good. The first day of the wild Card
went four and one, but then got crushed on Sunday.
Every sharp play went opposite us, and that's going to happen.
But if you manage risk correctly and you zoom out,
numbers never lie. And this weekend, I my job is
between now and Saturday and Sunday narrowing down my premium bets,
because I really do. There's eight possible selections side in
total in the four matchups, and I have seven strong leans,
So I'm really going to work over the next couple
of days to narrow those down to premium and then
share the rest on the steam sheet. So subscribers, you
will get all of these strong leans. They will be
on your steam sheet, just like the National championship and
some of the playoff moves are already going there. For
today's now talking about the Rams and Chicago. Now, you
know I've been hard on Chicago and the Oh sorry,
let me start off with Houston and New England. Sorry,
let me cover that game first. Now, Houston is the
second best team in the AFC power rating wise, number
one is Buffalo. Buffalo's the top team power rating. I
got them about third or fourth overall in the NFL.
New England may have the better rankord, but New England's
cracked my top ten. They're sitting at number eight. Here's
where New England is. They're right out of the top
ten on the offensive side of the ball. They're in
the top five on the defensive side of the ball.
But like we've been talking about all year, they've done
this against the easiest schedule, Houston on the flip side,
number one defense, like we talked about, only about thirteenth
in efficiency. But again that was against the number six
strength of schedule. So we have New England eleventh offense,
Houston thirteenth right behind them. On the defensive side of
the ball, though, we have Houston one and New England
about nine. So advantages, advantage of advantages Houston. With that
said power rating power rating, New England should be about
a one and a half point favorite. That's factoring in
home field advantage. Let me repeat that on a neutral field.
On a neutral field, Houston should be about a one
point favorite over the New England Patriots. You add in
home field advantage for the pay worth about two points,
so that makes Patriots about a one one and a
half point favorite. Max. Now we look at the betting
line and what is this show is it has us
in New England at three and a half juiced to
the dog. Juice to the dog. But what's more important
to me, and this is what's kept me off of Houston,
is that the opener was minus two and a half,
went through the key number of three, and now is
up to three and a half. So either my power
ratings are way off and that betting syndicate all the
Patriots as at a discount, or they're getting dummied up
and you're gonna see a big, big move on the
Texans come Sunday. One of those two things is what's
happening right here as far as myself of the playoff
that I'm gonna get for the show is I like
the over. I'll tell you the truth, I lean over.
I think there's a lot of recency bias on both
these teams. They both coming off big unders, especially in
the side of New England nineteen total points. But it's
also the narrative that the strength of both teams is
on the defensive side of the ball. Remember, both are
barely top fifteen offense, but both are top ten, number
one for Houston defense. What does that mean When the
narrative is defense, defense, defense, the market's going to react
to it. So we're going to get a lower total
than we should have had. Why because they have to
shade towards the bias of good defenses. So rather than
forty three, they're going to open forty and a half
forty one. That's what happened here. But the steam hasn't
come in. That's why you haven't seen like a huge
move on the under or on the over, which kind
of tells me. I think I'm right that the total
should be a little bit higher. We'll see what happens
when the public gets involved, because they haven't spoken, and
they won't speak until kickoff. But I do think this
total is a little bit too low that forty. I
think both defenses are this length of these teams, but
defenses create turnovers, create short fields. Special teams get involved
those turning the points. So it doesn't necessarily mean an
under because you have two stud defenses. So I'm gonna
go over forty and a half forty one in Houston,
New England.
Speaker 1: Marco your thoughts on the Patriots Houston. I kind of
I kind of agree with VR. I want to like
this Houston team plus the points. I've been screaming the
Patriots or frauds. I don't know if they look like
the frauds last.
Speaker 2: Week or not.
Speaker 1: This is another team that is superseded expectations all season long.
Give me your thoughts on the Sunday three PM game.
Speaker 4: Yeah, kellyan Is VR said with this line move, part
of it is is because of public perception. Even though
New England won handily and Houston won handily, people are
gonna look at what they saw. And when you watch
that Monday night football game, it was a seven to
sixth game for the longest while. Then they took a
ten to six lead and youre's like CJ. Stroud three turnovers.
They didn't look Chris and they were letting Pittsburgh hang around.
Well finally, whenever the game broke open, it was when
Pittsburgh imploded in the fourth quarter. So New England was
dominant from start to finish. And that's why you're seeing
the love for New England. But let's be honest, Okay,
Houston on the road going into Pittsburgh. Even though all
the problems that Pittsburgh has, it's still the mystique of
playing in that stadium a Monday night football game and
everything else.
Speaker 2: And CJ.
Speaker 4: Stroud did have a bad game, but they survived it.
And I always say, give me the better defense getting points.
Clearly that is Houston. And let's be honest, Okay, Justin
Harbert had no time to throw the football at all,
and he was under duress the entire game. That offensive
line has had injuries all year. We knew that in
New England was able to take advantage, But what did
New England do in that game? Because it still was
tight in that game as well before they pulled away
in the fourth quarter as well? Is just or New
England was able to make plays and keep drives alive
because Drake may beat them with his legs He was
their leading rusher in that game, and it wasn't like,
you know, we're running RPOs and stuff, you know, design
running plays. There were plays that broke down and he
was able to scramble and get the first downs. Those
are backbreakers for defenses. That's not going to happen this
week for a couple of reasons. One, Houston's a better
defensive team. Two, they saw the game film. Okay, they
know what he did. Houston's going to keep a guy
in the middle. They're going to keep a that's gonna
be there to prevent that. Plus, Houston could put more
pressure on the quarterback than the Chargers did. Drake May
It's been a great year and does he deserve the MVP. Absolutely?
Will he win it? Most likely unless Stafford gets some
of the you know, because he's never won it. You know,
sometimes the veterans get some of the sympathy votes. But
those two guys both are MVPs. I wouldn't have a
problem with either one getting it, but against this defense,
not gonna happen today for Drake May. I like Houston
to win this game. Houston's held nine of their last
twelve opponents to one hundred yards or less rushing. When
you make a team one dimensional, it's much easier to
defend them, and that's what's gonna end up happening here.
And point wise, they've held fifteen of their last eighteen
opponents to twenty one points or less. That's an entire season.
Only three teams have scored more than twenty one points
against this defense. If you're expecting low scoring game, defensive game,
and you're gonna give me a field goal or over
a field goal, Telly, I say it all the time.
I'll take the points with the better defense. And that's Houston.
Speaker 3: Best bet real quickly because I went a little long
rams Chicago. You know how I feel about Chicago. They
keep getting the job done. We keep talking about it.
Can they sustain this? Can they sustain this? Time? Is
gonna tell? But power rating wise, they're not in my
top fifteen. It's not a bias. I could care less.
Like I'm not a Yankees fan, it's just blue and
I'm wearing blue. I could care less. I bet on
and off of these teams every single day. I trust
my power ratings because they don't have bias, they don't care,
and they tell me that Chicago's not in the top fifteen.
They tell me that the Rams are the second best
team in the NFL. So the Rams on a neutral
field should be about a six point favorite, believe it
or not, close to a touchdown against these Chicago Bears.
Now we add in home field advantage for the Bears,
and that's why we're looking at three and a half.
But I think this line should be a little bit higher.
I'm not messing with the side. Instead, let's go with
the total because I did release a four percent to
my subscribers at under forty nine. The guys I worked
with we went under fifty and I thought that was
good under forty nine as well. Again, we have the
bias towards the offenses. Here, Rams number one offense against
the number one strength of schedule, so there's no argument
who the best offense is in the NFL. That's the
La Rams. Now we have the Chicago Bears. Defensively, they're
barely top twenty. Offensively, they're right near that top ten.
So we have the bias again towards the offenses. This time.
That's why this total is going to be a little
higher than it should be because of that bias of
what we saw last from these two teams. And what
did we see last from these two teams. Well, we
saw the Rams put up thirty four points last week
thirty seven, the week before. We saw Chicago put up
thirty one points last week thirty eight, two weeks before that.
Both these teams been putting up points lately. That's why
we have a much higher total than this should be.
Should be about forty six forty six and a half.
We're getting forty nine's instead. Don't wait too long because
wise guys like it as well. But if its number
gets away from you, wait till Sunday because the betters
are going to come back and bet the over and
probably push this line back off. So go under forty
nine forty eight and a half, probably with best you
can get. If you're shopping, you should get a forty nine.
That's what I released to my subscribers as a four
percent play.
Speaker 1: Three four percent play from you. But what else do
you have going on? Over at wagertalk dot com Before
we get out of here.
Speaker 3: National Championship side end total already confirmed and sent out
to subscribers. NFL will be up later today. Like I said,
narrowing down those seven strong moves. The steam sheets up
every day. Now, if you're a subscriber, you get that
every single day. And what's already in that steamshet College
Basketball for today, NBA for today, NFL steam moves already
sent out from yesterday, College foot as soon as that
came out, and more stuff will be added throughout the day. Again,
if you're a subscriber, you get that for free already,
So every single day the steam sheet will be available
at wager Talk. If you're a handicapper, then that's what
you want because it just lets you know what the
market's done and then you could confirm or deny what
you like. So, yeah, we got a lot going on
at wager Talk. Twenty twenty six is going to be
the banner year.
Speaker 1: Like I said, swanted to thank you guys for hanging
out with us all football season long. We'll get that
recap graphic up for you guys for the best bets
for the divisional round Kelly Stewart, Marco DiAngelo, and Yanni
the Greek until conference championships next week, Let's bet on
it