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Speaker 1: Divisional weekend in the NFL, like VR likes to say,

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just pick the winner up next.

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Speaker 2: I'm beat on it.

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Speaker 1: Kelly Stewart here, Marco DiAngelo front and center, and VR

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Yanni corrals over there.

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Speaker 2: To my right. VR I alluded to in the opening

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that it's just picked the winner weekend.

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Speaker 1: How do you approach the divisional round because of course

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we know I'm going to have those teasers.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, once we get to the playoffs, the point spread

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plays a very small role historically. Now we're all going

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to remember that time where it didn't happen, or last

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week where the Rams won but didn't cover. But historically

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the favorite either wins comfortably or the dog wins outright.

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That's just a history of the NFL playoffs. In fact,

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in the wildcard round, the conference championship round, it's close

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to ninety percent, and overall in the playoffs you're talking

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eighty plus percent eighty five percent of the time. So

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you're in that probability where eight out of ten times

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or greater, all you have to do is pick the winner.

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Don't even look at the number, look at the teams.

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This is the opposite of what we're supposed to be doing.

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But when you get to the playoffs, you gotta trust history,

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and history tells us that the point spread plays a

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very small role in determining the winner as far as

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cashing a ticket, and if you're able to determine the

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winner of the game, the probability of cashing that ticket

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is great. Unlike a regular season, you could pick the

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right side, and we always say this spread becomes the

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great equalizer, but when you get to the playoffs, that

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just hasn't been the case. The spread hasn't been the equalizer.

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And we'll see if it holds true throughout these playoffs.

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But history tells us if you could pick the winner,

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you'll cast your ticket.

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Speaker 1: Marco, I know you've already been doing some videos over

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on the Wager Talking YouTube channel regarding the NFL playoffs,

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but let our bet on it audience, know how you

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approach not only the NFL playoffs, but specifically the divisional rounds.

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Speaker 4: Well, Kelly, when you look at the divisional round, and

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for me, I like to look at it, is take

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the team that had a scare in that first round, okay,

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because the market likes to overreact and this has been

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a situation for me, whether it be first round. You

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know you're coming in we see generally, now we didn't

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last week. There's vr said last week, we've never seen

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as many home underdogs in the playoffs. Now you saw

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a lot of those ones that opened up his home

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underdogs ended up crossing over and being the favorite, you

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know at game time, the Jacksonville Buffalo game, you know,

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for instance. But you generally we'll have some bigger spreads

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in those first round games. And if you get one

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of those teams that has a scare, it's a wake

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up call. You know they're gonna come back with a

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focused effort the next week. Maybe it was a situation

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where you know, they rested starters in the last week

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or two because they didn't have anything to play for,

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they were locked into their position, whatever. But when you

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have a scare and you survive, I like to look

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for those teams in the next round because you're gonna

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get that focused effort from the start, and you're generally

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gonna get a little bit of line value. And that's

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what we're always looking for. Where's the value in the

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line Because the public likes to bet with what they

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saw last and if they think a team won lucky,

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they're gonna look to go against them, and it's gonna

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create value for you. Those are things that I like

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to look at.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but Marco, the Bears win lucky every single week. Anyway,

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we're gonna get to that game in a little bit.

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We're just gonna go in order of the games we got.

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Each of us are gonna have a best bet, and

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then we'll break down the one game they gut left off.

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But we know you still guys want a little bit

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if we know you guys still would like a little

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information on it, So I'm gonna go first because Saturday

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at four thirty Eastern, my Denver Broncos are taken on

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the Buffalo Bills.

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Speaker 2: And this is interesting because if you open up your

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Odds logic.

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Speaker 1: Screen, Broncos plus one and a half, Broncos pick them.

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I think it's all determining on who is trying to

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protect themselves from teasers on that end. But that's a

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whole nother debate based on your specific sportsbook. So I'm

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just gonna tell you hand up, I am the residentt

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Broncos fan. But if you guys remember all season long,

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I have been screaming from the mountaintops. Something has to give.

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Last year, Broncos as underdogs win on an absolute tear.

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This year, Broncos's favorites woof eight in one straight up,

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five and four against the spread at home this season,

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but they've been a favorite in every single one of

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those home games. But one now, something to keep in

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mind here Denver's defense. When's the last time the Denver

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Broncos won a Super Bowl? That's right, Peyton Manning, who

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didn't have a whole lot to do with it. Remember

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the guy with the glove, the game manager. Yeah, that's right,

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that Denver defense and Von Miller who ended up being

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MVP in that one. That is because this defense is vaulted.

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They've just finished the regular season eighth in EPA per play,

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first in success rate allowed. Now, granted, down the stretch,

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they didn't look very competitive because they played a team's

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name the Commanders, the Raiders.

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Speaker 2: And the Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: But they lead the league in sacks by a wide margin.

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They have sixty eight sacks on the season. Broncos have

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big boys on that front seven that I think are

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going to put a lot of pressure on the Bills

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offensive line. Let's see how the Bills defense does though.

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Ranking twenty eighth in rushing EPA. Over the last four weeks,

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they have not done well, but I will say they

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put a lot of pressure on opposing quarterback. So if

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bo Nicks does make mistakes, the Broncos will lose this

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football game. I do not think that that is going

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to be the case, though. I'm gonna take the better

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defense here plus the points. As I mentioned, how could

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you not want to just tease the Denver Broncos here again, guys,

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look for those minus one, ten, minus one twenty teasers

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at the most. You've got a Buffalo team now headed

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on the road again after a rock fight in Jacksonville,

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Denver has now had a week to lick those wounds,

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heal up and get ready for the playoffs here. I

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really like what Sean Payton's done here in Denver, And

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I know I was really hard on this Broncos team

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because they were not covering by margin. But again, better

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defense plus the point, give me the Denver Broncos. Marco DiAngelo,

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you are very hard on your teams and your team.

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Speaker 2: Is now out. How do you feel about Mike Tomlin

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getting canned, I mean sorry, asked to step down?

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Speaker 4: Now? He resigned? He resigned and we did it. If

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you remember, I did a show. It was one of

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the editions of Wager Talk Today a Friday back in

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the first week in December, and I said exactly what

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was gonna happen when the season ended, he was going

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to resign. It's just the Steeler way. They weren't going

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to fire him out of respect to him, he would

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step down, and that's what happened. It's gonna be fun

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to see who the next head coach is gonna be. Kelly.

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I'm sixty four years old, and I beat it to death.

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I've only seen three head coaches for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

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This will be the fourth one. Whoever they hire. A

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lot of names are floating around. I know one name

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that everybody is floating around, and there's no way he's

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leaving college football. But I will say if he ever

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left college football for an NFL job, it would be

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this one. But it's not actually the Steeler way because

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they've always went ever since you go, when Chuck Noles

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started to Bill Cower to Mike Tomlin, they always went

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with a young coach and that would eliminate the name

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Kurt Signetti because he is sixty four years old. You know,

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when you get hired by the Steelers, it's generally a

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fifteen to twenty year hiring. You know, that would put

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him too old at the end of that contract. But

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Marcus Freeman's name is floating around. We'll see. They're supposed

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to be a press conference today at Notre Dame. We'll

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see what happens. But I'm excited about it. It was

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time and we'll see what happens. But for my game

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on Saturday, Kelly, San Francisco travels to Seattle, and we'll

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start with the first thing. That's the big factor in

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this game. We don't have Siriani calling plays in this game,

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so that's gonna be a big problem for San Francisco.

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I don't know why last week Philadelphia, we've you know,

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beat it to death all year, why they didn't continue

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to attack the running game and manhandle San Francisco. We've

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made points about the defense in all of the injuries

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all year, and Philadelphia was rolling on the ground and

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they let the game get, you know, away from They

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let San Francisco stay in that game, and then San Francisco,

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as they do, got the lead in the fourth quarter

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and found a way to win. They made the plays.

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Give them credit. Christian McCaffrey's a one man wrecking crew.

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But when you look at this matchup, it is an

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absolute horrible matchup for the forty nine ers. These two

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teams just played two weeks ago, and you're gonna look

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at it and say, Okay, it was a thirteen to

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three score and San Francisco was down, you know, in

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the fourth quarter, down inside the ten yard line before

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they turned the ball over that sealed the game for Seattle.

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That's true. And Seattle did leave them hanging around in

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that game with a couple of mistakes early on, a

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couple coaching decisions, you know, some fourth down plays where

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we didn't put points on the board or end up

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having a penalty that you know, killed a drive. But

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if you watched that game, that was the most lopsided

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statistical domination that I have seen from a team that

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only won by ten points. It was ridiculous. Seattle from

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start to finish suffocated Seattle. San Francisco or excuse me,

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San Francisco. They couldn't stop Seattle's offense. They moved up

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and down the field. And the big thing about it

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is and why I think it'll be even better now

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for Seattle. Saam Darnold exercised those ghosts that he had,

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and it was hanging over him all year long, no

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matter how good of a season he had overall last year,

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all anybody remembered was the final two games of the season.

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The final game of the regular season against Detroit, which

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determined who had home field advantage in the playoffs, the

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division winner, and the first playoff game. Well, it was

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deja vu for him two weeks ago because he was

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in the exact same situation. He was playing for the

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division title in the number one seed, and had he

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lost that game, everybody would have had the same narrative

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here is you know Sam Darnold and what we saw

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with the New York Jets, Well, he exercised those demons.

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He got the win, and he got it on the road.

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I think this team is going to have a very

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good game defensively, their sound top to bottom. I have

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Seattle in Houston as one in one as the two

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best defenses in the NFL, and I just don't see

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San Francisco with all of the injuries, and they suffered

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an another one with Kittle being out. I gotta go

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with Seattle. I gotta go ahead and lay the points.

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When you look at this number, they brought it out

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over a touchdown for a reason. Lay the points with Seattle.

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And yes, Kelly, there'll be some teasers with Seattle.

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Speaker 2: Oh, Marco took the words right out of my mouth.

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Speaker 1: Marco. I know this is your best bet for the

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divisional round, but you also have some other plays over on.

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Speaker 2: Wager talk dot com. Can you let everybody know where

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to get those?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Kelly, and we talked about it last week. The deal,

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it's a no brainer. You guys love that Weekend Warrior

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package for forty nine dollars, but if you want to

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play all week long and get every play from every

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sport from your favorite handicapper, it's a no brainer. Weekend

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Warriors forty nine bucks, twenty dollars more for sixty nine

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dollars this week, you can get seven days. That's what

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we charge for a three day package. You're getting seven

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Head on over to wager talk dot com, get your

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favorite handicapper. And oh, by the way, those include any

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five percent plays and remember five percent play by itself

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sells four thirty five dollars. We're forty one and nineteen

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on the last two years with those five percent plays,

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pretty good shot that there'll be a five percent play

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in the next seven days. Head on over to wagertalk

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dot com grab your favorite cap or now.

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Speaker 1: VR is gonna break down the Bears game. Of course

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he is, but not yet. First we got to go

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to the three pm game on Sunday. Sorry to our

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graphics guy, we're out of order. Here there we go,

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graphics guy, his name's Dan Alexander.

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Speaker 2: You guys know him from wager talk dot com. I

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don't mean to disparage.

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Speaker 1: Him in any of the slightest Patriots now up to

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three and a half, starting to see those pop on

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the Odds logic screen versus the Texans forty and a

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half VR. I'm gonna ask your opinion first, but I

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wanted to get your thoughts. Marco mentioned that he thought

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this Texas Texans defense was one of the best in

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the league in terms of a power rating perspective.

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Speaker 2: How do you have these two teams rated?

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Speaker 1: And do you agree with him on that defensive statement?

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Speaker 3: Houston's number one defense and that was against the number

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six strength of schedule. So this as legit as you're

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gonna get when it comes to defense, like, it's not

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against the even Seattle, who's number two defensively. They did

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it against the number thirteen and fourteen toughest strength of schedule,

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so they had a lot easier road than Houston. Houston

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is legit the number one defense in the NFL. Now,

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you know me, I keep it real. Tell you when

258
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I win, tell you when I lose. Finished the NFL

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season number one in profit, just like in college football,

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did really good. The first day of the wild Card

261
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went four and one, but then got crushed on Sunday.

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Every sharp play went opposite us, and that's going to happen.

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But if you manage risk correctly and you zoom out,

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numbers never lie. And this weekend, I my job is

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between now and Saturday and Sunday narrowing down my premium bets,

266
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because I really do. There's eight possible selections side in

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total in the four matchups, and I have seven strong leans,

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So I'm really going to work over the next couple

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of days to narrow those down to premium and then

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share the rest on the steam sheet. So subscribers, you

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will get all of these strong leans. They will be

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on your steam sheet, just like the National championship and

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some of the playoff moves are already going there. For

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today's now talking about the Rams and Chicago. Now, you

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know I've been hard on Chicago and the Oh sorry,

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let me start off with Houston and New England. Sorry,

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let me cover that game first. Now, Houston is the

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second best team in the AFC power rating wise, number

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one is Buffalo. Buffalo's the top team power rating. I

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got them about third or fourth overall in the NFL.

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New England may have the better rankord, but New England's

282
00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:55,919
cracked my top ten. They're sitting at number eight. Here's

283
00:15:55,919 --> 00:15:58,519
where New England is. They're right out of the top

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ten on the offensive side of the ball. They're in

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the top five on the defensive side of the ball.

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But like we've been talking about all year, they've done

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this against the easiest schedule, Houston on the flip side,

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number one defense, like we talked about, only about thirteenth

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in efficiency. But again that was against the number six

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strength of schedule. So we have New England eleventh offense,

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Houston thirteenth right behind them. On the defensive side of

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the ball, though, we have Houston one and New England

293
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about nine. So advantages, advantage of advantages Houston. With that

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said power rating power rating, New England should be about

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a one and a half point favorite. That's factoring in

296
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home field advantage. Let me repeat that on a neutral field.

297
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On a neutral field, Houston should be about a one

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00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:58,440
point favorite over the New England Patriots. You add in

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00:16:58,559 --> 00:17:01,879
home field advantage for the pay worth about two points,

300
00:17:02,159 --> 00:17:04,599
so that makes Patriots about a one one and a

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00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:07,319
half point favorite. Max. Now we look at the betting

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00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:09,480
line and what is this show is it has us

303
00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:12,599
in New England at three and a half juiced to

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00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:15,839
the dog. Juice to the dog. But what's more important

305
00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:17,960
to me, and this is what's kept me off of Houston,

306
00:17:18,559 --> 00:17:21,119
is that the opener was minus two and a half,

307
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went through the key number of three, and now is

308
00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:29,720
up to three and a half. So either my power

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00:17:29,799 --> 00:17:34,880
ratings are way off and that betting syndicate all the

310
00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:41,319
Patriots as at a discount, or they're getting dummied up

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00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:43,440
and you're gonna see a big, big move on the

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00:17:43,519 --> 00:17:47,640
Texans come Sunday. One of those two things is what's

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00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:51,240
happening right here as far as myself of the playoff

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00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:52,839
that I'm gonna get for the show is I like

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00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:55,799
the over. I'll tell you the truth, I lean over.

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00:17:56,079 --> 00:17:59,720
I think there's a lot of recency bias on both

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00:17:59,759 --> 00:18:03,839
these teams. They both coming off big unders, especially in

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00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:07,119
the side of New England nineteen total points. But it's

319
00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:10,599
also the narrative that the strength of both teams is

320
00:18:10,599 --> 00:18:13,240
on the defensive side of the ball. Remember, both are

321
00:18:13,279 --> 00:18:17,920
barely top fifteen offense, but both are top ten, number

322
00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:21,319
one for Houston defense. What does that mean When the

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narrative is defense, defense, defense, the market's going to react

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to it. So we're going to get a lower total

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00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:30,480
than we should have had. Why because they have to

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00:18:30,519 --> 00:18:34,279
shade towards the bias of good defenses. So rather than

327
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forty three, they're going to open forty and a half

328
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forty one. That's what happened here. But the steam hasn't

329
00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:44,759
come in. That's why you haven't seen like a huge

330
00:18:44,799 --> 00:18:48,200
move on the under or on the over, which kind

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of tells me. I think I'm right that the total

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00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:53,119
should be a little bit higher. We'll see what happens

333
00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:55,519
when the public gets involved, because they haven't spoken, and

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00:18:55,519 --> 00:18:57,920
they won't speak until kickoff. But I do think this

335
00:18:58,039 --> 00:19:01,480
total is a little bit too low that forty. I

336
00:19:01,519 --> 00:19:04,480
think both defenses are this length of these teams, but

337
00:19:04,559 --> 00:19:09,640
defenses create turnovers, create short fields. Special teams get involved

338
00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:14,599
those turning the points. So it doesn't necessarily mean an

339
00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:18,400
under because you have two stud defenses. So I'm gonna

340
00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:22,440
go over forty and a half forty one in Houston,

341
00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:23,039
New England.

342
00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:27,720
Speaker 1: Marco your thoughts on the Patriots Houston. I kind of

343
00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:30,519
I kind of agree with VR. I want to like

344
00:19:30,559 --> 00:19:33,240
this Houston team plus the points. I've been screaming the

345
00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:35,759
Patriots or frauds. I don't know if they look like

346
00:19:35,839 --> 00:19:37,160
the frauds last.

347
00:19:36,839 --> 00:19:37,519
Speaker 2: Week or not.

348
00:19:38,279 --> 00:19:42,440
Speaker 1: This is another team that is superseded expectations all season long.

349
00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:45,799
Give me your thoughts on the Sunday three PM game.

350
00:19:46,759 --> 00:19:50,559
Speaker 4: Yeah, kellyan Is VR said with this line move, part

351
00:19:50,599 --> 00:19:53,440
of it is is because of public perception. Even though

352
00:19:53,599 --> 00:19:58,279
New England won handily and Houston won handily, people are

353
00:19:58,279 --> 00:20:01,200
gonna look at what they saw. And when you watch

354
00:20:01,279 --> 00:20:04,119
that Monday night football game, it was a seven to

355
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:07,680
sixth game for the longest while. Then they took a

356
00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:11,920
ten to six lead and youre's like CJ. Stroud three turnovers.

357
00:20:12,599 --> 00:20:16,640
They didn't look Chris and they were letting Pittsburgh hang around.

358
00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:20,240
Well finally, whenever the game broke open, it was when

359
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:24,960
Pittsburgh imploded in the fourth quarter. So New England was

360
00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:28,359
dominant from start to finish. And that's why you're seeing

361
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:32,279
the love for New England. But let's be honest, Okay,

362
00:20:33,279 --> 00:20:37,079
Houston on the road going into Pittsburgh. Even though all

363
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:40,519
the problems that Pittsburgh has, it's still the mystique of

364
00:20:40,799 --> 00:20:44,240
playing in that stadium a Monday night football game and

365
00:20:44,319 --> 00:20:44,960
everything else.

366
00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:45,400
Speaker 2: And CJ.

367
00:20:45,559 --> 00:20:48,680
Speaker 4: Stroud did have a bad game, but they survived it.

368
00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:52,279
And I always say, give me the better defense getting points.

369
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:57,359
Clearly that is Houston. And let's be honest, Okay, Justin

370
00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:01,319
Harbert had no time to throw the football at all,

371
00:21:01,839 --> 00:21:06,079
and he was under duress the entire game. That offensive

372
00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:08,960
line has had injuries all year. We knew that in

373
00:21:09,079 --> 00:21:12,680
New England was able to take advantage, But what did

374
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:15,279
New England do in that game? Because it still was

375
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,559
tight in that game as well before they pulled away

376
00:21:18,599 --> 00:21:23,559
in the fourth quarter as well? Is just or New

377
00:21:23,599 --> 00:21:27,160
England was able to make plays and keep drives alive

378
00:21:27,559 --> 00:21:30,799
because Drake may beat them with his legs He was

379
00:21:30,839 --> 00:21:34,759
their leading rusher in that game, and it wasn't like,

380
00:21:35,079 --> 00:21:38,640
you know, we're running RPOs and stuff, you know, design

381
00:21:38,759 --> 00:21:41,480
running plays. There were plays that broke down and he

382
00:21:41,519 --> 00:21:44,279
was able to scramble and get the first downs. Those

383
00:21:44,279 --> 00:21:47,720
are backbreakers for defenses. That's not going to happen this

384
00:21:47,799 --> 00:21:51,039
week for a couple of reasons. One, Houston's a better

385
00:21:51,079 --> 00:21:54,720
defensive team. Two, they saw the game film. Okay, they

386
00:21:54,839 --> 00:21:57,960
know what he did. Houston's going to keep a guy

387
00:21:58,519 --> 00:22:01,119
in the middle. They're going to keep a that's gonna

388
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:03,960
be there to prevent that. Plus, Houston could put more

389
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:08,000
pressure on the quarterback than the Chargers did. Drake May

390
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:12,279
It's been a great year and does he deserve the MVP. Absolutely?

391
00:22:12,519 --> 00:22:15,839
Will he win it? Most likely unless Stafford gets some

392
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:18,359
of the you know, because he's never won it. You know,

393
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:21,279
sometimes the veterans get some of the sympathy votes. But

394
00:22:21,319 --> 00:22:24,480
those two guys both are MVPs. I wouldn't have a

395
00:22:24,519 --> 00:22:27,759
problem with either one getting it, but against this defense,

396
00:22:28,079 --> 00:22:31,200
not gonna happen today for Drake May. I like Houston

397
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:34,559
to win this game. Houston's held nine of their last

398
00:22:34,559 --> 00:22:39,279
twelve opponents to one hundred yards or less rushing. When

399
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:42,039
you make a team one dimensional, it's much easier to

400
00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:45,039
defend them, and that's what's gonna end up happening here.

401
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,920
And point wise, they've held fifteen of their last eighteen

402
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:54,440
opponents to twenty one points or less. That's an entire season.

403
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:57,599
Only three teams have scored more than twenty one points

404
00:22:57,599 --> 00:23:02,039
against this defense. If you're expecting low scoring game, defensive game,

405
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:04,000
and you're gonna give me a field goal or over

406
00:23:04,039 --> 00:23:06,279
a field goal, Telly, I say it all the time.

407
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,319
I'll take the points with the better defense. And that's Houston.

408
00:23:09,799 --> 00:23:12,119
Speaker 3: Best bet real quickly because I went a little long

409
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:15,079
rams Chicago. You know how I feel about Chicago. They

410
00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:17,440
keep getting the job done. We keep talking about it.

411
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:20,160
Can they sustain this? Can they sustain this? Time? Is

412
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:23,200
gonna tell? But power rating wise, they're not in my

413
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:26,799
top fifteen. It's not a bias. I could care less.

414
00:23:26,839 --> 00:23:29,240
Like I'm not a Yankees fan, it's just blue and

415
00:23:29,279 --> 00:23:32,160
I'm wearing blue. I could care less. I bet on

416
00:23:32,319 --> 00:23:35,200
and off of these teams every single day. I trust

417
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,079
my power ratings because they don't have bias, they don't care,

418
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:41,039
and they tell me that Chicago's not in the top fifteen.

419
00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:43,319
They tell me that the Rams are the second best

420
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:46,480
team in the NFL. So the Rams on a neutral

421
00:23:46,519 --> 00:23:50,519
field should be about a six point favorite, believe it

422
00:23:50,599 --> 00:23:56,279
or not, close to a touchdown against these Chicago Bears.

423
00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:58,720
Now we add in home field advantage for the Bears,

424
00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:00,759
and that's why we're looking at three and a half.

425
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,319
But I think this line should be a little bit higher.

426
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:05,920
I'm not messing with the side. Instead, let's go with

427
00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:08,039
the total because I did release a four percent to

428
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:11,359
my subscribers at under forty nine. The guys I worked

429
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:14,160
with we went under fifty and I thought that was

430
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:18,599
good under forty nine as well. Again, we have the

431
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:23,839
bias towards the offenses. Here, Rams number one offense against

432
00:24:23,839 --> 00:24:26,400
the number one strength of schedule, so there's no argument

433
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:28,480
who the best offense is in the NFL. That's the

434
00:24:28,599 --> 00:24:32,759
La Rams. Now we have the Chicago Bears. Defensively, they're

435
00:24:32,799 --> 00:24:37,039
barely top twenty. Offensively, they're right near that top ten.

436
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:40,799
So we have the bias again towards the offenses. This time.

437
00:24:41,279 --> 00:24:43,480
That's why this total is going to be a little

438
00:24:43,519 --> 00:24:46,799
higher than it should be because of that bias of

439
00:24:46,799 --> 00:24:49,279
what we saw last from these two teams. And what

440
00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:51,400
did we see last from these two teams. Well, we

441
00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:53,599
saw the Rams put up thirty four points last week

442
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:56,359
thirty seven, the week before. We saw Chicago put up

443
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:59,440
thirty one points last week thirty eight, two weeks before that.

444
00:25:00,079 --> 00:25:03,119
Both these teams been putting up points lately. That's why

445
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:05,079
we have a much higher total than this should be.

446
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:07,599
Should be about forty six forty six and a half.

447
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:11,680
We're getting forty nine's instead. Don't wait too long because

448
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:14,559
wise guys like it as well. But if its number

449
00:25:14,559 --> 00:25:17,559
gets away from you, wait till Sunday because the betters

450
00:25:17,559 --> 00:25:19,759
are going to come back and bet the over and

451
00:25:19,839 --> 00:25:23,519
probably push this line back off. So go under forty

452
00:25:23,599 --> 00:25:25,680
nine forty eight and a half, probably with best you

453
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:28,000
can get. If you're shopping, you should get a forty nine.

454
00:25:28,079 --> 00:25:29,920
That's what I released to my subscribers as a four

455
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:30,759
percent play.

456
00:25:30,599 --> 00:25:32,920
Speaker 1: Three four percent play from you. But what else do

457
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:34,960
you have going on? Over at wagertalk dot com Before

458
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:35,559
we get out of here.

459
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:39,400
Speaker 3: National Championship side end total already confirmed and sent out

460
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:44,519
to subscribers. NFL will be up later today. Like I said,

461
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:48,400
narrowing down those seven strong moves. The steam sheets up

462
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:50,640
every day. Now, if you're a subscriber, you get that

463
00:25:50,759 --> 00:25:53,599
every single day. And what's already in that steamshet College

464
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:57,680
Basketball for today, NBA for today, NFL steam moves already

465
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:01,359
sent out from yesterday, College foot as soon as that

466
00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:05,000
came out, and more stuff will be added throughout the day. Again,

467
00:26:05,039 --> 00:26:07,480
if you're a subscriber, you get that for free already,

468
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:10,079
So every single day the steam sheet will be available

469
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,839
at wager Talk. If you're a handicapper, then that's what

470
00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:15,519
you want because it just lets you know what the

471
00:26:15,559 --> 00:26:18,519
market's done and then you could confirm or deny what

472
00:26:18,559 --> 00:26:20,799
you like. So, yeah, we got a lot going on

473
00:26:20,839 --> 00:26:22,799
at wager Talk. Twenty twenty six is going to be

474
00:26:22,799 --> 00:26:23,440
the banner year.

475
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:25,839
Speaker 1: Like I said, swanted to thank you guys for hanging

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out with us all football season long. We'll get that

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recap graphic up for you guys for the best bets

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for the divisional round Kelly Stewart, Marco DiAngelo, and Yanni

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the Greek until conference championships next week, Let's bet on

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it