Speaker 1: What's up, everybody. Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks.
If you are new, we do always start to show
by being transparent. And yesterday it was another good day.
Two and one. Overall, Pistons was a winner, the Blazers
at the right school to thank you letter for that
last second scot that he did there. But honestly, if
the Hornets would have covered, I feel like I feel
like the Blazers were the right side in that game.
So those are the two winners. The one loser was
the Timberwolves, probably their worst game of the season last night.
So overall profitable, Dave, you know, good to be back
here with you. How's everything on your end?
Speaker 2: Good Ski last night was good.
Speaker 3: In the NBA two and out the play that we
left here the Phoenix Milwaukee game over the total Phoenix
got one twenty nine.
Speaker 2: They hadn't really come near one twenty nine and quite a.
Speaker 3: While, but Milwaukee's defense is that bad right now, and
they did their share. And then I was on the
Pistons game too, but that was on the Pistons team
total over one thirty eight.
Speaker 2: Obviously they got way over. So it was a good night.
Picked up a few units here and ready to get
on with it today.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll probably. I feel like we should just have
a This should be a faster show. It's less games.
I know a lot of people want to watch those
college games anyway right now, So let's just talk about
talk about a few of these things here. Cavaliers and
Magic did open two and a half, now three and
a half total, right around the opener. For the Magic,
you have I don't think as well. You have friends
Bogner and Anthony Black both out for the Cavaliers. You
have Allen Proctor and Strus unavailable. The Magic did have
a couple of days off before this game, so they
do have the rest advantage. They do play tomorrow. It's
not a crazy game. They just played the Wizards. But
mentioning it just men mentioning. It is the first of
a back to back for the Cavaliers. It is their
third game in four nights. You know, I was trying
to find reasons to back the Magic. Really, they've been
playing a little bit better. You know, they haven't been
playing the best of competition, but they've won what four
in a row here, scoring pretty well, looks like the
offense is picked up. I was trying to back the Magic.
I mean you look at the same time. No, the
defense has been good last five games. I believe they're
the number one defensive rated team. I thought about either
the Magic or I thought about the Cavaliers team total under.
Team total was one fifteen last I saw, and the
Magic haven't given that up in at least ten games.
Any thoughts from you here, you know on Magic Cavaliers.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I could see that.
Speaker 3: I could see Cavaliers potentially team total under here.
Speaker 2: For Lando, they have to keep stacking wins.
Speaker 3: Last night Miami won them in first place in the division,
but more importantly, it dropped to Orlando behind them in
the conference standing, so Orlando lost a seed here, they
fell out of the playoffs and into the play in
So they are half a game now behind Miami to
get into the playoffs without having to try and play
their way in. So it's really important to them. For
the Calves, understanding that they could move up from four
to three. That's a close race with the Knicks, or
at least push themselves into a type But there's no
sense of urgency for the Cavs because there's nobody chasing them.
Speaker 2: Skiza, I feel like from a mindset.
Speaker 3: From a focus and motivational standpoint, Orlando's probably the right side.
Speaker 2: They need it more. To put it simply at this point.
Speaker 3: With Miami's win last night, and you know, I'd love
to have Franz back, But it seems to me like
Ben Carrol and Desmond Dane have grown pretty accustomed to
playing with one another, because when you look through these
box scores recently, those two guys are now sharing and
carrying the load like they should. Without Franz in there,
you know, Orlando's got the depth out of Cleveland's defense
is untrustable at times out of Jared Allen. Did you
say he's on the injured list tonight.
Speaker 2: Or is he offense?
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's out.
Speaker 2: He's out.
Speaker 3: So it helps Orlando a little bit in that regard
to without Jared Allen cleaning up a lot of boards
for Cleveland.
Speaker 2: You know, their backcourt is what it is.
Speaker 3: It's good offensively, hard and Mitchell not great defensively. I
could see Orlando at home in this instance. I could
also see maybe a Caps team total under It's a
whole different Seeing Orlando at the top of the defensive
rankings last five games hasn't been something we're accustomed to
this year.
Speaker 1: And the Cavaliers like they've been, you know, prolific scoring
one fifteen ninety eight, one thirteen, one oh six it
I mean one nineteen, one sixteen before that, But just
last four games, I'm surpassed that one fifteen number and
uh basing the Magic team playing some good defense. So
I don't want to discount that the Magic the way
the Magic offense has looked lately in this Cavaliers defense
without without out down there as well. So maybe it's
just take the Magic here. I think I'll think about
it a little bit longer, but it's either Magic or
Calves team total under For me, I feel like real.
Speaker 3: Quick ski befoward, move on when you were just rattling
off the amount of points that the Calves have scored
game by game recently. Feel like they got slower when
they got James Harden, right, and maybe that's why the
point production is going down. We talk an awful lot
and we'll talk again about Clippers getting faster, Calves getting slower.
So another kind of decent reason to put into the
handicap for maybe playing Cleveland team total.
Speaker 1: Wonder, I'm actually uh see it. Can I get can
I get that Calves pace with James Harden? Ninety six
point fourteen? Pretty slow? Now let's see without canna do
without really quick? Because I damn it, what did I
just do here? I agree? And this could help me
make my bet without James Harden. This season, the cast
pace was one hundred point fifty four with James Harden
and it has dropped to ninety six point fourteen. So yeah,
I mean, I tell you right there exactly what you
just said. And the offense hasn't been great eighteenth offensive
great team, yeah, twenty eighth and paced last five games.
I mean against the number one defense. Oh, I think
the Magic can win and I think the team total
under can hit for the Cavaliers might have to play both.
I don't want to rush. I don't want to rush,
but I like it, Rob, you know, way.
Speaker 2: To talk it through. You know what James Harden says.
Speaker 3: He is a system and need protect system with him
a little.
Speaker 1: Slower yep, all right, Raptors Pelicans, I do see Jaka
Pero questionable with the illness. T Jackson Davis questionable cn
B out for Repelicans. McGowan's out looks like pretty healthy
outside of that you know, I have systems telling me
to back back. The Raptors unrested off of that loss
that they had yesterday, But I just I can't trust
it if they if I don't know that they're gonna
have bigs to protect the paint, Like Zion should be
able to go in there and do whatever he wants,
and that's going to open up things for everybody else.
Like this is one where I just couldn't trust the systems.
I'd probably lean more towards Pelicans, would think they know, Yeah, I.
Speaker 3: Tend to leank toward Pelicans overs. At this point in time.
They're scoring really well. They're also allowing a lot, and
the Raptors just ran into a case last night. They'll
probably run into this defensively. Obviously they don't have size,
but they were in into a team last night that
does have size.
Speaker 2: Houston.
Speaker 3: I rebounded Toronto by twenty two last night, fifty two
to thirty. They just Toronto had no chance on the boards,
and you have less of a chance when Ingram and
Quickly have bad nights two for eleven combined from three
six or twenty one combined from the floor, I'd expect
those numbers you know, especially Brandon Ingram playing New Orleans,
I would expect his numbers to go up tonight. More
production out of Toronto, easier defense to conquer than what
Houston's was back to backs aside, I think Toronto's going
to get theirs.
Speaker 2: And also, like.
Speaker 3: You were just saying, without Toronto's bigs involved, New.
Speaker 2: Orleans should score two.
Speaker 3: Just looking over in New Orleans last three games two
fifty six, two thirty four, two fifty six, prior to
that two eleven, two point fifty four. If they've been
up to two forty seven, so they've gone to either
hit this number or going over five of the last seven,
which is pretty solid, I would probably lead teams or
excuse me, full game total over.
Speaker 1: I could get with that, definitely can understand that. Look,
next one we have Nixon Jazz opened up minus twelve
up to fourteen total open two thirty three, down as
low as two twenty nine and a half for the
next Josh Hard is questionable. McBride is out for the Jazz,
Cante George is questionable, Marketing is out contra out man.
We'd love to know Canante George's status If he's in,
you know, I can go for getting points at home
with this Utah Jazz team, and if he's out, I'll
probably become a little disinterested in the game. How about you?
You know.
Speaker 3: Kind of feel the same way, and we talk about
it so often. With Utah home totals full game, they're
not going to put up any resistance on the defensive end,
so the Knicks are going to get there as Nicks arrested,
so it should be okay. I'm trying to see how
many games he been on his road trip. The Knicks
have been there for a little bit, even though even still,
I think they'll be able to score here, and George
really a key part of that Utah offense. Give Kyle
Philipowski the x Dukee guys some credit here.
Speaker 2: You know, he was a.
Speaker 3: Preseason terror, summer league terror for Utah and starting to
get his chance to put in some minutes as an
extremely small senate. I mean, some of these teams using
the little guys to play center just going fast, Nick
should be able to take advantage of him on their
offensive end. I think Philipowski causes trump for Nick Biggs
on the other end, because you have to chase him
around a little bit, and I could see points here.
Steve would want George obviously, but the you know what,
the betting market might have pushed this down enough already
to where I don't have.
Speaker 2: To worry if I have George or not on Utah tonight.
Speaker 3: I'm two twenty nine and a half is a more
than reasonable number where Utah home games are concerned.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, I agree with that. That number kind
of makes me feel like George is not gonna play.
But I do hear you're dropping dimes likes the next
team total? So does Jazz give up one twenty eight
points per game off of a win? Interesting stat right there.
Appreciate you sharing Hornets Kings. Both teams on the back
to back opened up minus fourteen for the Hornets, that says,
and it's down to twelve or I'm sorry, down to
twelve and a half. Total down as well from two
twenty eight as low as two twenty three and a half,
Charlotte White as probable, mcneilly's questionable, Slowan Williams both questionable
or Sacramento card Well's out, Keegan Murray's out, Malik Monk
is doubtful. Yeah, the Hornets have now failed to cover
three straight. Is it the regression Hornets. I mean, this
King's team off two straight wins here now catching double
digits at home. I don't think the Kings even had
to travel. I mean, the spot favors the Kings is
a little bit more. Can we trust them to stay
within the margin. What do you think you're of?
Speaker 3: You know, well, you might be able to simply because
Charlotte and the back to back isn't just as you know,
a black and white issue as you would usually think
with back to backs. I think the back to back
in this situation somewhat you know, it's Charlotte got off
got off real slow last night.
Speaker 2: First quarter.
Speaker 3: I think they're they're down like nineteen at one point
in the first half, and they had to climb their
way back to win that game.
Speaker 2: Second quarter through the fourth quarter. They win eighty three
to sixty seven. But it took work, took a little effort.
Now you're gonna come play back to back. However, all
that said.
Speaker 3: I don't really want much part of Sacramento. You know,
last night, in that Sacramento game, what I noticed is
if I could pull up my notes here real quick,
ski against Indiana, like Indiana was killing that team, and
again We talk about teams all the time that just
aren't interested in winning, and it's like Indiana, just flip
that switch.
Speaker 2: Well, you know what, second half rough.
Speaker 3: Double digits, Better turn it off, And here comes Sacramento
to score seventy two points in the second half against Indiana.
Speaker 2: And win that game. Won't be the case against Charlotte
to night.
Speaker 3: Charlotte is still fighting for positioning inside the playoff teams.
Speaker 2: In the eastern side.
Speaker 3: So I think Charlotte's gonna win whether or not they
win by you know, more than thirteen.
Speaker 2: It's now down to twelve and a half.
Speaker 3: It's a little bit, you know, up in the air
because they haven't been really good lately and they're off
of a game where they were at taxed a little
bit last night and having to come back, but they don't.
They're not resting guys. I mean, you just read the
injury report. I don't hear any key names on the
injury report for them, and I just think Sacramento gives
up too many points defensively. So for me, I like Charlotte,
don't trust them to cover, but I think I could
trust them to score here tonight. They didn't play the
best offensive game all the way through last night. Maybe
they do hear Kings generally high scoring. Charlotte's team total
numbers one eighteen and a half. I have not played it,
but it's the way I would look. I would look
Charlotte team total over and then I don't have to
worry about winning by fourteen points.
Speaker 1: All right. I think I would look at a I
can go for an over, but I would probably refer
to king side Rockets and Nuggets. Is a Rockets team
they played yesterday third game of four knights as well.
I think this is the fifth game of seven nights.
The Nuggets definitely the more rested team. Nuggets also lost
to the Rockets this season one on one to one
fifteen a little bit before Christmas, so maybe a chance
for some get back there for Denver and Denver getting
a little bit healthier now. I mean, the only person
I'm seeing that it's expected to be out with Peyton
Watson for the Rockets during Phinnie Smith is questionable. Tite
is out. This Rockets team. You know they just haven't
been playing good basketball, and you know they're in a spot,
a fatigue spot against a Nuggets team who needs wins.
The only way to look at this game is Nuggets,
and I, hey, only way is Nuggets for me. What
do you think.
Speaker 3: We need their defense? I mean we say this every
single day. Head coach Edelman comes out and says, if
we're going to win the playoffs, we need to play defense.
Denver just refuses to play defense. But now that Aaron
Gordon's back for a few games, I would think that
that starts to change a little bit.
Speaker 2: Two things here.
Speaker 3: Houston lucked into a matchup last night where they couldn't
help but win. I just talked about plus twenty two
rebounding edge.
Speaker 2: They're not going to have that tonight against Denver.
Speaker 3: No how, no way, Gordon and Jokic down there, there's
no real advantage on the boards for them.
Speaker 2: And it almost seems to me ski like maybe Houston.
Speaker 3: The one thing that scares me is I don't know
this number, but I do remember on this show more
than once you say that the Rockets. If I'm right
that the Rockets are pretty good on back to backs,
maybe they are. If they are, that would be the
slightest thing that scares me off here. But I don't
think it would be enough to scare me off Denver.
I think the biggest part of my handicap is what
we talked about yesterday.
Speaker 2: Oh, there you go, Denver.
Speaker 3: They're in sixth place in the West and Phoenix won
last night. There's only one game out of being a
playing team, So the desperation is there, the sense of
urgency is Therefore, Denver, it's not really there. For Houston
got a big win last night. Maybe they looked at
these back to backs and said, let's go out and
crush Toronto and then you know, whatever happens in altitude happens.
But I could see Denver here in this case, despite
the fact that Houston's a good back to back team.
If you don't want to lay points, I mean, this
thing has jumped from five to seven and a half
if you don't want to lake points. Nuggets team total
at home always an option because they scored so well.
I'm looking at one eighteen and a half right now.
I don't think I would mind playing the Nuggets here.
Skiga just hope that Aaron Gordon picks up the defensive
intensity a little bit.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're in agreement on this. One game is Nuggets.
I mean, I'm sorry, Timberwolves and Clippers side right around
the opener total right around the opener as well. Two
twenty six and a half is what we're looking at
right now, though nobody on the injury report for Minnesota. Now,
I mean, they did play yesterday. You know how these
things go. They could always rule somebody out. The Clippers
only see Collins Rode out as of right now. That Minnesota. Man,
I hate the timber Wolves. I'm not gonna lie Timberwolves.
They're not. They need to do something else, like blow
it up and do something. This team is just not
good enough. But the game, specifically last night, it's probably
the worst game I've seen them play. They shot put
that headache from the three point line, didn't really look
like they cared too much. And now I know, I
know coach Finch cussed them out. I would expect a
much better performance here in the back to back, so
Timberwolves would be the way I'm looking here in this game,
expecting some positive regression on that shooting three point shooting
as well. What do you think here Timberwolves and Clippers?
Speaker 4: You know, yeah, well, I mean you know the way
I think about the Clippers right now, And it helped
me last night to make this bet early and I
have my fingers cross ski that Minnesota doesn't rule people out,
and I made.
Speaker 2: The bet knowing that they could.
Speaker 3: But it just doesn't seem to me that Anthony Edwards
could come off at two for fifteen against the Lakers
and say, you know what, I'll just sit it out
tonight against the Clippers.
Speaker 2: I don't think that's happening. I would expect them to
bounce back. You said they played lousy last.
Speaker 3: Night to numbers speak for themselves at least offensively twenty
five percent from three, and I just mentioned the key
guy to the whole tea goes two for fifteen, you.
Speaker 2: Expect him to be better.
Speaker 3: And then it's helpful to me because I'm always a
bounced back guy when I'm betting that I have the
standard with the Clippers to stand by here that they're
just playing faster and these totals still aren't really climbing
all that much to twenty six and a half.
Speaker 2: I think the other night when we doubled up on
the show and won.
Speaker 3: That total, it was like two twenty and a half
to twenty one something. But here against the Minnesota defense,
that really isn't terrific to start with.
Speaker 2: That could be a little bit fatigue.
Speaker 3: I could see La thinking, you know what, We're just
gonna run at them all night long and get their points.
In a Minnesota picks up the offense a little bit here,
we should get home to over two twenty six and
a half.
Speaker 2: So that's the way I bet it again.
Speaker 3: Fingers crossed when I did this, because he and I
talk a little bit off the show off air about
how dangerous it is to bet these things early, and
I knew the danger when I walked in. Hopefully I
didn't step into any you know, land mines here. But
I don't think Minnesota's gonna rest a lot of people
up in that performance last night.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think. I think. I don't think they're going
the rest a lot of people either. And I would
agree with you on the Anthony Edwards thing. He probably
will go out there and have a really good bounce
back game tonight, so I would agree with you on
that as well. That is the NBA car for today.
So now before we get over to the best bets,
let me do some of this good old promotion. So
first of all, we have the buy three, get three free,
comes out to just comes out to six days for
just sixty nine dollars. It's a good way to be
involved for you know, about a week. Check either Robber
or myself out. If you're interested in, you know, really
long term, you can go with the all in for
the year comes out to just under four dollars a day,
and you'll get every play that we make in a
long with this, you'll get a twenty five percent bonus
coupon that you can use on something else. So a
lot of different ways to get involved. Veno, I you
know what, I'm gonna go first this time, Okay, and
only because I don't wanna let you guys know. Basketball
has been going well for me. I think what am
I I'm up like maybe in the mid fifties basketball
so far this season and today I do have a
five percent play, so I'm not gonna give a best bet.
And my dog of the day yesterday did come through
and I did bet it. Who knows I may bet
this when I may not, but we're gonna talk about
it for the end of the show. That's my dog,
my dog. That's my dog, and anybody gotta say anything,
you let me know that's my dog. My dog. Would
have to be the Orlando Magic here at the house,
well rested, trying to stay out of play in territory,
playing the number one defense in the league over the
last five games, versus Cavs team who is not playing
the best offense, who's been, who had to travel, playing
the third game in four nights here. I just think
it's a really good spot for Orlando to stay within
the number of not winning the game. So my dog
of the day will be Orlando Magic plus three and
a half. You know, on that note out pass to you,
I'll ask you if there's anything else you would like
to promote, and if you do have a best bet
for the show, we love to hear it.
Speaker 2: I think we've got promotions covered. Well.
Speaker 3: Let me just say this because you did say earlier
people wanted to get on with the show and get
out to watching college basketball.
Speaker 2: If in fact you're betting college basketball, you want to
tune into Full Court Press.
Speaker 3: Wager talks daily college basketball show every morning Eastern time,
ten am.
Speaker 2: To eleven am.
Speaker 3: Adam Trigger and myself sixty minutes of going through the
games are going to be on every single day here, guys,
all the way through Sunday night. We'll have our own
selection Sunday show wager Talk beyond that panel, so you
can catch us over on wager Talk TV with this
huge college basketball weekend. Is concerned tonight for best batski
I bet two of these. We talked about a bunch
of them, but the one I'm going to leave for
the best bet, I'm just gonna stick with. You know,
if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Clippers game over
to twenty six and a half against Minnesota. We just
laid out kind of aligned in our thought process of
why this game could get over again. LA is playing
a lot faster in Minnesota bounce back effecture. I would
expect Anthony Edwards to have a big game in Minnesota
to score better. So give me Clippers Minnesota full game
total over to twenty six and a half.
Speaker 1: Good stuff, Rob, You know, I like that, And I
see people in the chat rooting in their college place.
Appreciate all you guys in the chat letting us know
we had a good show and that they appreciate it,
you know, always, you know, always appreciate you taking the
time to come catch these games definitely helps me out,
even if you know, sometimes I come on here and
don't feel like I have a player, you can talk
it out. You know, we open up our wallet up
here on this show, so, like I say, definitely helps
my process and I always want to let you know
I appreciate you doing that chat. We appreciate you as well.
We'll be back again tomorrow. Best of luck everybody on
all your action and we will catch you all then