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Speaker 1: It is a twenty nine on a Tuesday which means
Speaker 1: for certain we get to gate the the Daniel Davis
Speaker 1: Deep Dive with the retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis, who,
Speaker 1: of course we'll be talking about Russian and Ukraine. Daniel Davis,
Speaker 1: Welcome back to the fifty five Krsey Morning Show, my friend,
Speaker 1: is always a pleasure for having you on.
Speaker 3: I look forward to this day every week.
Speaker 1: I'm glad you do because I do as well. And okay,
Speaker 1: let's start with this because we're gonna get in, you know,
Speaker 1: figure out what's going on with Ukraine and Rush and Russia.
Speaker 1: And I know the Secretary of State Mark Rubio and
Speaker 1: other US officials are planning on having a meeting in Jetta,
Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia to try to get a resolution to this conflict,
Speaker 1: and I hope they do. Ukraine launched its biggest drone
Speaker 1: attack against Moscow and other areas as well. But what
Speaker 1: is this something strategic associated with because it seems to
Speaker 1: be an exercise of futility. Is it just to be
Speaker 1: pesky and try to annoy the Russians because apparently the
Speaker 1: Russians were successful and shooting down almost all the drones.
Speaker 4: Yes, that's exactly what it is. It is trying to
Speaker 4: be pesky, is trying to be annoying. It's saying, hey,
Speaker 4: we have this capability, you might as well use it.
Speaker 4: Everybody see is that the end game is in progress
Speaker 4: right now, and these these talks in Saudi Arabia are
Speaker 4: probably going to start to look at the nature of
Speaker 4: how the war is gonna come to an end. And
Speaker 4: there the Ukraine side is not gonna like it, just
Speaker 4: because they don't have any of the leverage. They don't
Speaker 4: have any of the power cards to play. They literally
Speaker 4: don't have any. So they think, now, how about this,
Speaker 4: we we make a for public relations kind of operation
Speaker 4: to launch these things and get this big splashy thing.
Speaker 4: And I've already seen all these headlines massive drone attack
Speaker 4: into Moscow, across Russia in the course carry et cetera,
Speaker 4: all this stuff, so it looks good splashy. Then when
Speaker 4: you look at some of the pictures, the vast majority
Speaker 4: got shot down, a few got through, one hit them all,
Speaker 4: another one hit an apartment building, won some some cars
Speaker 4: in a parking lot that that got fired because of
Speaker 4: the gas, made some great video images, had nothing, no
Speaker 4: military significance whatsoever. All it's gonna do is just frankly
Speaker 4: make the Russians even matter. And all this is in
Speaker 4: the context of the Course region, a lightning advance that
Speaker 4: Russia hasn't done since they the Ukraine side went in
Speaker 4: there last August. And now in just a matter of days,
Speaker 4: they're just taking massive swaths every day. This thing could
Speaker 4: be already over in the Course area in two or
Speaker 4: three more days from now.
Speaker 1: Well, I guess, and so far, I mean symbolic, we're
Speaker 1: striking Moscow. You know, it's like flying a B to
Speaker 1: B two or whatever bomber over and dropping some bombs
Speaker 1: on Tokyo for the purpose of boosting American morale in
Speaker 1: World War Two. You point out the obvious, it doesn't
Speaker 1: have any military advantage. They're not getting ready to invade Moscow.
Speaker 1: But it seems to me from a strategic standpoint, and
Speaker 1: I'm no general, you know, don't play one on radio,
Speaker 1: but the massive amount of drones that they used to
Speaker 1: engage in these attacks, wouldn't it have been better served
Speaker 1: hitting the front line Russian troops that are advancing into
Speaker 1: the into into the Curse region or whatever region.
Speaker 3: That's exactly what I was saying.
Speaker 4: It just shows that they aren't even attempting to do
Speaker 4: something that makes any military sense, because you're doing these
Speaker 4: things into Russia. The targets weren't even military, so even
Speaker 4: the ones that got through, we're just trying to hit
Speaker 4: civilian targets something that they could to get the pr splash.
Speaker 4: So yes, and when you're looking at the video images
Speaker 4: actually coming out of the Kursk area here, apparently even
Speaker 4: the Ukrainian air defenses the area are almost non existent
Speaker 4: because Russians are flying K fifty two helicopters fighter jets
Speaker 4: strafing targets, which means there is no air defense whatsoever,
Speaker 4: not even tactical. So if you were going to fire
Speaker 4: something somewhere, it would seem to make more sense, as
Speaker 4: you said, and maybe you should start playing a radio general.
Speaker 4: I don't know, but that's what I would have done,
Speaker 4: just to take those where you could have had some
Speaker 4: tactical advantage for your side.
Speaker 3: And instead they did this well.
Speaker 1: And I can't remember the region, but I had read
Speaker 1: just the other day that the Ukrainian forces were getting
Speaker 1: surrounded and leaving them with little option to retreat, which
Speaker 1: seemed like an inevitable thing that we're going to have
Speaker 1: to do. Was that the area of Russia that they
Speaker 1: had taken over that we're talking about.
Speaker 4: It is, Yeah, that's exactly what was happening in the
Speaker 4: kurse Carea.
Speaker 3: They had an option.
Speaker 4: I was just almost pleading into the ether on my
Speaker 4: shows in recent days, just saying that that's what they
Speaker 4: should do. The Ukraine side, there was no prospect for
Speaker 4: holding them. They needed to withdraw and get back while
Speaker 4: they could, because Russia was having a pincer movement to
Speaker 4: cut off the one supplier, the one exit route actually
Speaker 4: supply and exit.
Speaker 3: They didn't. They continued to stay there.
Speaker 4: Now many of them are pouring out now, even without orders,
Speaker 4: but in a continuing process that Ukraine has shown almost
Speaker 4: from the very beginning back into Mariopal in twenty twenty two,
Speaker 4: in the spring of twenty twenty two. Every time they
Speaker 4: get into one of these situations a cauldron, they never
Speaker 4: do the military smart thing of withdrawal their forces to
Speaker 4: a more advantageous position. They keep them there, fighting to
Speaker 4: the last man, the last house, forcing Russia to come
Speaker 4: and clean them up. And Russia has the manpower to
Speaker 4: do it. So they lose so many men every time
Speaker 4: that they don't need to. And this is just the
Speaker 4: next one in line.
Speaker 1: And that's a shame because it's been widely reported and
Speaker 1: I haven't read really anything to the contrary. The Ukrainians
Speaker 1: are running out of people to fight this war. So
Speaker 1: if you've got people sitting in an occupied region of
Speaker 1: Russia which has no strategic advantage other than say, hey,
Speaker 1: we've taken over a chunk of Russia and we're going
Speaker 1: to keep it, maybe as a bargaining chip in the negotiation,
Speaker 1: which we all know isn't going to be worth a
Speaker 1: whole lot. But to leave them there, get them surrounded,
Speaker 1: and get them slaughtered when they could have been brought back,
Speaker 1: as you point out, to areas where they were needed.
Speaker 1: Since they're running out of men, that seems the only
Speaker 1: logical and reasonable thing to do.
Speaker 4: It is the only logical and rational and militarily smart
Speaker 4: thing to do. That's what they should have done. The
Speaker 4: whole curse thing was an operation of utility from the beginning.
Speaker 4: It never had any chance to accomplish anything of operational
Speaker 4: value for the Ukraine side. It had the pr value of, hey,
Speaker 4: we're finally sticking it to Russia, taking it to their territory.
Speaker 4: That briefs well made people feel good. At Ukraine for
Speaker 4: a while, but it had no actual importance to the war.
Speaker 3: Effort at all.
Speaker 4: And in fact, then over the months Ukraine kept said
Speaker 4: in tens of thousands of people and to reinforce it
Speaker 4: and all the logistics and everything for something that didn't
Speaker 4: have any outcome of the war. And it was never
Speaker 4: I'll just point this out, never any chance that Russia
Speaker 4: would have traded that away as opposed to taking it
Speaker 4: by force, because that would have made them look weak
Speaker 4: and they weren't. So they were killing a whole bunch
Speaker 4: of Ukraine people here that were not available on the
Speaker 4: Eastern Front where the real fight was going on, the
Speaker 4: one that actually matters. So I'm just sorry but this
Speaker 4: may hurt some people's feelings. But the general ship on
Speaker 4: the Ukraine side has been hideous and it's gotten so
Speaker 4: many of their men killed. That's why they have lost
Speaker 4: the war, and there is no prospect for them to
Speaker 4: get a good deal.
Speaker 1: And Jetta, well, perfect segue where I was going the
Speaker 1: deal in Jedda. What do you anticipate? I mean, Russia's
Speaker 1: got the upper hand now, and it's a stronger hand
Speaker 1: than they had say six months ago. Are they going
Speaker 1: to hold out for even more. You always start with
Speaker 1: your best foot forward. You ask more than you're going
Speaker 1: to get, because that way you can negotiate backward and
Speaker 1: not feel like you're really losing anything. Make an outrageous demand.
Speaker 1: Do you expect Russia to make an outrageous demand to
Speaker 1: resolve this or to bring about peace and negotiate something back?
Speaker 1: And if so, what do you think they're going to
Speaker 1: end up with? If you had to read the tea
Speaker 1: leaves Daniel Davis.
Speaker 4: Well, I would look at it from the other side
Speaker 4: at first, In terms of outrageous demands, I think that
Speaker 4: the Ukraine side will ask, and they already have ask
Speaker 4: for a partial ceasefire. They say they want to ceasefire
Speaker 4: in the sky and in the sea, so no more drones,
Speaker 4: no more fighting in the Black Sea, etc. While they
Speaker 4: work something out that is I mean almost you think
Speaker 4: that it may be a joke that they would ever
Speaker 4: actually ask for that when it would be only a
Speaker 4: benefit to them. Russia would have no advantage whatsoever. And
Speaker 4: as I just pointed out, they were flying K fifty
Speaker 4: two's and fighter jets strafing into the area because there's
Speaker 4: no air defense on the Ukraine side at the tactical level.
Speaker 4: Why would Russia ever agree to something that can only
Speaker 4: benefit the other side. What I think is happening here,
Speaker 4: despite what some of the headlines are, I think that
Speaker 4: the Secretary of Rubio, Mike Walls and Witkoff, I think
Speaker 4: you were representing the United States. I think that they're
Speaker 4: telling the Ukraine side, boys, the game is over. You
Speaker 4: can either capitulate according to the best terms we can get,
Speaker 4: or you're on your own. If they don't agree to
Speaker 4: what the United States is willing to do, which is
Speaker 4: to just bring the war to an end at the
Speaker 4: best terms they can get, which will be ugly, then
Speaker 4: I think that we're gonna say then we're gonna walk.
Speaker 4: Trump has indicated that already. He's implied it a couple
Speaker 4: of times. And if Ukraine still tries to hold out
Speaker 4: for this great deal that they'll never get, then Russia
Speaker 4: will simply keep fighting this issue.
Speaker 3: In the north.
Speaker 4: With the course, Russia is not just going to re
Speaker 4: establish the border. They're gonna keep going because there aren't
Speaker 4: very many defenses on the Ukraine side.
Speaker 3: This could open up a new front. We'll see how
Speaker 3: it goes well.
Speaker 1: And I read the Trump administration the other Day started
Speaker 1: denying Ukraine military until diligence, And is that if that's true,
Speaker 1: is that to egg Ukraine on and just to realizing, hey,
Speaker 1: it's not your Night nine invaluable intelligence or is there
Speaker 1: something behind that, like maybe as a lever to get
Speaker 1: this minerals deal signed.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it could be all the above.
Speaker 4: But we had General Kellogg point blank say that this
Speaker 4: is like and I'm not making this up, he said
Speaker 4: this is like hitting a mule with a tube before
Speaker 4: to get their attention, all the pausing of this stuff,
Speaker 4: which is to tell them.
Speaker 3: I think Fellas, we see the ground as it is.
Speaker 4: We're not the previous administration, we're not Europe, We're definitely not.
Speaker 3: The Ukraine side.
Speaker 4: We see it as it is, and you can't win,
Speaker 4: you can't even hold out. You either make an agreement
Speaker 4: to bring this war to an end or we're not
Speaker 4: going to continue supporting it.
Speaker 3: And I think that he's Trump has.
Speaker 4: Not given in on that so far despite lots of pressure,
Speaker 4: because I think he means it well.
Speaker 1: And I think what you just said there addresses the
Speaker 1: folks who are yelling at Trump about selling Ukraine out
Speaker 1: and being with this this puppet of Vladimir Putin's rather
Speaker 1: than that he's just a realist. I mean, is that
Speaker 1: really not what this boils down to?
Speaker 4: And Brian, let me just point out something because this
Speaker 4: just makes me crazy because I keep hearing that kind
Speaker 4: of stuff.
Speaker 3: Trump is selling us out. He's given up. You had
Speaker 3: three full years to have everything.
Speaker 4: The US could give, everything, Europe could give, everything, Ukraine
Speaker 4: could do, and they lost for thirty straight months.
Speaker 3: Ukraine has been losing and going backwards.
Speaker 4: And you want to say now that Trump should come
Speaker 4: in and repeat that and do more of what has failed.
Speaker 3: It's irrational.
Speaker 4: They're going to lose now because of what we did
Speaker 4: in the previous thirty months before Trump came in.
Speaker 1: That is a fact telling it like it is. Daniel Davis, Man,
Speaker 1: I certainly appreciate your analysis, and that's why I look
Speaker 1: forward to the segment every week. Deep Dive Daniel Davis.
Speaker 1: Search of the Daniel Davis Deep Dive Online for podcasts,
Speaker 1: and tune in next Tuesday for another edition Today thirty
Speaker 1: take care of br brother, Have a great.
Speaker 3: Week, my brother. We'll see you next time. Thanks.
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