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Speaker 1: And we are live. Welcome to the best sports betting

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show on the planet. This is wager Talk Today. I

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am your host, Andy Lang. It is Wednesday, and we're

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covering it all. We got college football, we got MLB,

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a little bit of everything. Midweek is where the sharp

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betters get prepped. That's exactly what we're gonna do today.

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Ralph Michaels is gonna join us. We're gonna talk college football.

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We're gonna break down the Rice and Charlotte game, and

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then we're gonna talk NFL Week three trends. We're gonna

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look at these teams that are two and zero and

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the teams that are oh and to, what are their

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likelihood of making the playoffs? How can it help us

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out this weekend? And then Ross Benjamin that's gonna join us.

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We're talking Phillies and Dodgers. He's gonna break down Iowa Rutgers,

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and we're gonna play This line makes no sense, so

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let's get after it. Hit the like button. Thank you

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so much for joining us here. Let's do a quick

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steam report. Not too much in NFL. The line for

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Thursday night is staying pretty pretty. It's twelve and a

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half or thirteen. Not really big key numbers there. The

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over under has stayed the same. We're gonna look at

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college football. Nothing too much on Thursday and Friday, but

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there is some movement on the Saturday games. By far,

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the biggest one is North Texas at Army. Army opens

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up minus two and a half. North Texas is now

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minus two and a half, and if you want to

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bet it, I would get on at asap because threes

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are already popping up at DraftKings and pinnacles, So North

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Texas huge line swing there. So if you're gonna bet

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on North Texas, you're gonna want to get on it now.

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If you're gonna want to bet Army, just wait, you're

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gonna get a better number. Some money's coming in on

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TCU as the favorite. Georgia Tech has moved off the

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key number there at twenty four. That's down to twenty

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three and a half. A little bit of money coming

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in on Temple. I see sevens are popping up in

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the Central Florida game at Central Florida minus seven at

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home against North Carolina, So if you want to fade

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North Carolina, I'd jump on that one pretty quick. And

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let's see there was one other one of no oh,

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Duke Duke at minus two that's blown through the key

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number of three. Everything's at three and a half right now,

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so Duke at home in NC State. We got a

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big total in that one. Opened at fifty seven on

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the over under, and I'm seeing fifty eights and a

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half across the board on that one. I think that

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is it for the Saturday games. I didn't see anything

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on the late game. Some money is coming in on

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Tulane and Kansas has moved to fourteen were they opened

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it twelve and a half and it looks like DraftKings

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has put it all the way up to fourteen. So

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is Pinnacles. Take a look at baseball Pittsburgh. People are

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betting on Pittsburgh. I opened minus one fifty six, down

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down to minus one thirty six even minus won twenty

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eight at one of the books. And some money's coming

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in on San Francisco. Here's a game, here's a game

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that's interesting. Be careful with this game. I don't know

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what to make of this. Oakland Athletics at Boston, and

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we're gonna get to them. In all around the world.

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The amount of money and the amount of tickets favors Boston,

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but the line is moving towards Oakland. That spells a

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lot of trouble. Anytime this happens. I feel like you

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always want to be on the side of the books

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when they're moving this line. When all the money's on

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one side, yet the line is moving the complete other direction,

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it stinks. Something stinks about that game. So just tread

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lightly with that one, because that one makes absolutely no sense.

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Royals are taking a lot of money against Seattle, and

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late game, no surprise, Milwaukee taking a ton of money

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against the Angels. But yeah, I'm going to be monitoring

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this Oakland Boston game. Hate situations like that where everyone's

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beending on one side and the book's like, oh, we're

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going to move the line the other way. So all right,

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here we go. Aubrey, Why be on the side of

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the books, I don't know, Because the books win ninety

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nine percent of the time. I kind of want to

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be on that side. So whenever the books have a

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strong opinion, they're probably going to be right more than

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they are wrong. So, Aubrey, there's a ever there's a

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strong opinion one way or the other, you really want

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to be on the other side of the books. It's

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terrifying when you bet in the line moves a complete

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other way. So yeah, it's it's important to be on

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the side of the books. We'll just say that. All right,

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let's bring let's bring in Ralph. Michael's s F Niner says,

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the books are wrong a lot correct correct. The books

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are not right every single time. But as winning sports betters,

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if you're betting the minus one ten, minus one twenty lines,

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you're going to be right fifty five percent of the time.

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That means you're losing forty five percent of time. Books

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are in the same boat. If they can win fifty

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eight sixty percent of the time, that means they're losing

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forty percent of the time, but they're still wildly successful.

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So all right, let's bring on Ralph. Let's talk Rice

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and Charlotte. Ralph, do you have anything else to add

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to that? Why do you want to be on the

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side of the books.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, my number was going to be the books are

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wrong forty five percent of the time. But yeah, if

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if they're correct fifty five percent of the time, let's

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add in the ten percent use they're getting. That fifty

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five percent now goes to sixty point five percent with

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the ten percent choose yeah.

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Speaker 1: And Aubrey says ninety nine percent of the time. So

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that comes from Dave Mason that ninety nine percent of

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the accounts and bet online are in the negative. So

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ninety nine percent of accounts, ninety nine percent of betters

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at bet online are are have lost. They have losing

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long term results. When I say ninety nine percent of

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the time, I mean the books beat the betters ninety

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nine percent of the times. It's a tough, tough industry

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and that's why we show up every day try and

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help you guys out here. Something. Ralph, Let's open up

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real quick with college football and then we'll get to

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the NFL trends. I do want to ask. I want

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to pose a trivia question to the chat. Don't google it,

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don't look it up. Let's let's do this old school,

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all right, So, Ralph, you're gonna talking about oh and

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two and two and o teams here in NFL. How

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many teams have started off oh to three in the

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NFL and have made the playoffs. Don't look it up,

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just type it in the live chat here and we'll circle.

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We'll circle back.

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Speaker 3: Since nineteen eighty eight.

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Speaker 1: Since nineteen eighty eight, okay, since nineteen eighty eight, open up,

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oh to three? How many teams have made the playoffs?

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All right, Ralph, let's move. Let's let's do college football

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with a shot? Is up pondering that question. Let's talk

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Rice and Charlotte. Here, interesting breakdown on this game. Here, Rice,

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they changed their offense this year, didn't there they're running

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some kind of they're running a different offense. I haven't

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really followed him that much, but their minus two and

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a half over unders at forty four and a half.

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What's you take on this game?

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Speaker 3: Well, Andy, you are correct.

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Speaker 2: In fact, they have run the ball one hundred and

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sixty eight times. They have passed the ball only forty

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one times. They have a new head coach and Scott Abel.

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Scott Abel has been at Davidson for the last five years.

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He leads that team an all time winning record, and

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he is an options type quarterback. So you're looking at

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a team that's gonna run the ball, slow down the pace,

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and they've brought it to the tune of four point

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three yards perk. But that's a little bit misleading because

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you have to throw out the Prairie View A and

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A game. They ran for three hundred and forty seven

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yards and five point eight yards per carry as a

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huge favorite last week, but new head coach running scheme.

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I am impressed with their defense very much. They held

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Houston to three ninety two. That's not great, but again

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it's a decent number because only fourteen first downs. They

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went to Louisiana. They held Lafayette to two hundred and

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thirty nine yards and sixteen first downs. Charlotte also has

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a new head coach for this opening AAC game, or

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they want to be called American, they don't want to

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be called AAC anymore. And their new head coach is

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Tim Alban. And you may say to yourself, Tim Albin

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won the MAC Tournament, won the MAC Conference championship last year.

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He was the MAC Coach of the Year, and he

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leaves to go to Charlotte. Why would a coach do that? Well,

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let me tell you, the MAC doesn't pay for head coaches.

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I think he was making one eight hundred thousand last year.

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I think he's making one point eight million at Charlotte

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in the upgrade to the AAC. So why does the

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coach leave a losing program to try to turn one around.

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Oh for about a million dollars a year. So Ohio

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is the same type of schemes that Alvin ran at Ohio.

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They are run heavy, they play conservative defense. They give

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up some yards, but they try to keep you out

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of the end zone. The defense has struggled a bit.

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They allowed five hundred and eighty six yards to app

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State in their opener. Remember this is a team in

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Charlotte that only had five wins last year and only

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brought back seven returning starters, So it's going to take

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a while for his systems to get into effect.

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Speaker 1: But don't be.

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Speaker 2: Fooled, you might say, Charlotte and Rice, this is probably

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one of the worst national TV games we've ever had

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on a Thursday. But these kids and these programs are excited.

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More people are going to watch this game from these

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two programs that'll probably watch them for the rest of

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the entire season combined.

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Speaker 3: So they will be excited.

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Speaker 2: The fan base will be excited at Charlotte, and again.

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Speaker 3: That excitement to me means.

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Speaker 2: With young quarterbacks, you're gonna have a conservative game plan

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to start. I look at Charlotte's defense in their three games,

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they have allowed four point eight, four point five and

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two point one yards per carry rushing. That is one

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hundred and twenty six yards per game and four yards

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per carry, So I think their defense can slow that

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Rice offense. With that said, it's a low total, but

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I do want to mention this to all the viewers

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with a total of forty five or less in college football,

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if an FBS team is playing an FCS team with

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a low total, it's gone over fifty seven percent. But

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when you have a low total with an FBS versus

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FBS game like this, you are three point fifty one

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and four thirty two over under. That is fifty six

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point two percent to the under. The total forty four

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and a half forty five. I am actually gonna go

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first half. Now we are gonna have to give up

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a point value. Normally the first half is a few

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points less than the full game total. First half under

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twenty one to me is the way I'm looking. And

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not only is this the best bet, Andy, this still

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has a chance to make my client play. So a

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lot of times we give out opinions.

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Speaker 3: On the show.

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Speaker 2: Take that for what it's worth, But when a play

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is close to being a client play that is clearly

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a stronger best bet for this segment.

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Speaker 1: All right, good stuff, Ralph, you want to do that.

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Let's answer the trivia question where everyone's everyone's put their

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guesses in there. I know the answer, So Ralph, what

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is what is the answers? It's nineteen eighty eight. How

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many teams in the NFL started zero to three and

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gone on to make the playoffs?

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Speaker 2: Well, there's been one, and it was it was Houston

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Texans a couple of years ago. They started oh and

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three and they ran off nine straight wins to get

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to uh they ran off nine straight wins and finished

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eleven and five. But just to know how important it

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is for these and two teams, OH and two teams

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Since twenty twenty when they expanded the playoffs to add

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the extra wild card game, only twelve percent have made

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the postseason starting OH to two. So these O and

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two teams already have pressure on them, extreme pressure, because

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again OH and three are basically saying we're done.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 2: Let's go ahead and show the chart and the charts

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three parts, the top part OH and two teams, the

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middle part two and O teams, and the bottom part

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those rare instances where an O and two team is

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playing a two and o team, So it's going to

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be surprising Andy, And we talk about this all the time.

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The charts may help you make your bet better, they

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may keep you off a game by analyzing the data,

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or it may just be a wow, this is not

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what I expected. And I think if you say to

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most people, if you have an zero to two team

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and they're at home, you would think they're absolutely motivated

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to bounce back.

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Speaker 3: But look at those ats numbers.

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Speaker 2: Teams is a home favorite that are oh and two,

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It's only happened seventeen times. They've covered forty four percent.

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Teams is a home dog that are oh and two

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have only covered forty eight percent. You can see who

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it applies to over on the right. But if you're

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on the road as an O two team, away favorites

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fifty seven percent, and away underdogs that are zero and

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two have actually covered sixty six percent against the spread.

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If you look to the right, that applies to Houston, Miami,

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the New York Jets, and the New Orleans Saints. Now

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let's look below at the time two and O teams

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home favorites forty five percent, home dogs fifty five percent

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away favorites a wash away dogs forty four percent, So

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not much that we take out of that, except with

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two and O teams as an away dog only seven

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and nine against the spread. And you see the teams

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that applies to only eleven times as an O two

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team face to two OH team, they've gone five and six,

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like Cleveland and Tennessee in that role and on the

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road ten and seven fifty nine.

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Speaker 3: Percent Miami and the New York Jets.

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Speaker 2: I will post this on Twitter, guys. I ran through

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the data sort of quick. My takeaway two teams you

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fade them at home, you play on them on the road,

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and especially as an away dog. Hopefully that gives you

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some value looking at those zero to two and two

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and O teams in to NFL Week number three, all.

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Speaker 1: Right, yeah, you know the Dolphins are just boy, what

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a tough game. This is short week, going on the

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road at Buffalo. I mean the Titans are zero and

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two playing the two and OH teams Colts. I would

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say they probably need a They probably have a little

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bit better shot, but that's a that's a tough spot

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to be oh and two going going up against two

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and oh teams.

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Speaker 2: And if you're one of the sharps that look at stats,

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I mean, the Cleveland Browns have to be your favorite

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team in the whole world right now, outdating both because

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being two and division aption, it's it's crazy when you

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look at their statistical profile relative to their record.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, absolutely, Ralph. A great job on the chart,

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Great job on the college football game, great job on

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the trivia. What do you have up for everyone at wager.

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Speaker 2: Talk, Well, we cash a five percent NFL teaser and

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00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:48,679
that'sh did not surprise you. Six straight NFL five percent

290
00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:51,960
winners and listen to this. My NFL teasers rated four

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00:14:52,039 --> 00:14:57,120
percent and five percent, Andy eight no O, and fifteen

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00:14:57,200 --> 00:14:59,399
and one the last twelve months.

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Speaker 3: Four.

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00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:04,200
Speaker 2: I will have an NFL five percent teaser for Sunday

295
00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:05,039
again this week.

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00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:09,840
Speaker 3: And remember take advantage of the weekend. Warrior sign up today.

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00:15:10,159 --> 00:15:12,399
You don't need to wait to the weekend. It's only

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00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:13,480
forty nine dollars.

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00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:16,279
Speaker 2: You'll get my five percent, which is thirty five dollars,

300
00:15:16,559 --> 00:15:19,320
and get all of my Saturday college football, all of

301
00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:22,559
my Sunday college football, and if I have a play

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00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:25,960
Monday night in the NFL, you'll receive it as well.

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00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:27,519
Speaker 3: Make sure you sign up today.

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00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:30,399
Speaker 2: I'll be loading that five percent either tonight or first

305
00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:32,600
thing in the morning. You want to make sure you

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00:15:32,679 --> 00:15:35,919
get the positive line value that we afford you. By

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00:15:36,039 --> 00:15:39,679
releasing these plays early, you'll get notified immediately.

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00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:43,960
Speaker 1: Great stuff for Ralph Michaels. Yeah, took the words right

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00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:45,960
out of my mouth. I got that promo. Ralph and

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00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:48,559
the pen, thank you so much for joining us. Have

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a great Wednesday, Ralph h We got Ross Benjamin coming

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up here in a bit. Let's go all around the

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world though. Let's give the people some free plays. We

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got a couple of MLB plays, and we got a

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00:16:00,279 --> 00:16:03,799
college football play. We're gonna go Guardians at the Tigers.

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Let's take this plus one thirty five on the Guardians.

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Guardians won five straight, nine and one in their last ten,

318
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and Williams for the Guardians has not allowed over two

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runs the last three starts. We're getting a really really

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00:16:14,759 --> 00:16:17,799
good price on the Guardians here at plus one thirty five.

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That one comes off of the free picks page at

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00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:23,240
wajertalk dot com. This one does as well, going South

323
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Carolina at Missouri. Take a look at the first half

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under twenty three and a half. South Carolina likely to

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be without their starting quarterback. Backup came in for relief

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00:16:31,159 --> 00:16:33,720
last week. Didn't put up any points. Expects South Carolina

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00:16:33,799 --> 00:16:35,840
try and shorten the game on the road, use as

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much time on the clock as possible, and not put

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up many points. So looking for a low scoring games

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South Carolina and Missouri, and we'll do a team at total.

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We hit our team total yesterday pretty easily. It's this

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game I talked about earlier with the Stave report, so

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Red Sox I'm going to over four and a half.

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00:16:54,679 --> 00:16:57,240
Barnett is pitching for the for the Athletics and he

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has been awful. Twelve point two innings, eighteen hits and

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00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:06,400
twelve earned runs allowed. He's not gonna go very deep

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00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:09,599
into this game, so this is in essence a bullpen game.

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Red Sox have not been lighting the world on fire

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with runs, but man, this pitching situation is really bad

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for Oakland. So even though the line is wonky supporting Oakland,

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I'm gonna take the Red Sox on the team total.

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Let's bring in Ross, Benjamin Ross, the Boss. How are

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00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:31,200
you today? Thanks for joining us. How's your Wednesday?

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Speaker 4: It's always better when I see you, Andy.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, flattery will get you everywhere. So we're gonna do

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We're gonna do. This line makes no sense. We're gonna

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talk a little bit about the Phillies and the Dodgers.

348
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But I want to get started with this Iowa versus

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rut curse game. Yeah, Iowa minus two and a half,

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we get over under forty five and a half. I

351
00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:59,519
kind of chuckled because I think Iowa thought their offense

352
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was gonna be dynamic. But it's like, it's Iowa. You're

353
00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:08,160
never gonna have a dynamic It's just Iowa. There's no

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such thing as a dynamic offense for Iowa. How do

355
00:18:10,839 --> 00:18:14,240
you break this game down here with this Hawkeys team

356
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hanging on to two and a half, not moved to

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the three yet.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, it's hard to be dynamic when you

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00:18:21,039 --> 00:18:24,240
run the ball sixty five percent of your offensive plays

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00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:27,079
like they do did excuse me in the first three

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games of the season. However, let's look at this game

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in its entirety. Andy, you're looking at a Rutgers team.

363
00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:38,079
They're out to a three and oh start, nothing new there.

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I mean, they seemed to do that every year as

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a matter of fact, since twenty twenty one, Andy Rutgers

366
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is fifteen to oh in their first three games of

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the season. Do you know what the record is after

368
00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:55,680
game three of the season since twenty eighteen.

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Speaker 1: No clue, what is their record? What is their record?

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00:18:59,039 --> 00:19:03,519
Speaker 5: Afy, I am so so glad that you asked. Since

371
00:19:03,599 --> 00:19:07,799
twenty eighteen after game three this season, the Rutgers Scarlet

372
00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:12,680
Knights are fourteen and forty nine straight up after game three,

373
00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:15,240
and you know they're three and zero this year.

374
00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:19,079
Speaker 4: Like I said, they're giving up one hundred and forty

375
00:19:19,079 --> 00:19:22,119
eight point seven yards per game on the ground. Really,

376
00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:25,119
by college football standards, not bad, but when you considered

377
00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:28,640
the level of competition they faced in Ohio, Miami of Ohio,

378
00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:33,079
and Norfolk State, I would be a little leary of that.

379
00:19:33,279 --> 00:19:37,400
And I say that because Iowa has been an extremely,

380
00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:41,720
extremely good rushing attack. And by the way, that one

381
00:19:41,799 --> 00:19:44,400
hundred and forty eight point seven yards per game they're

382
00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:47,720
giving up on the ground, they had double digit leads

383
00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:51,039
in each one of those contests, won two of them

384
00:19:51,079 --> 00:19:57,160
by double digit margins, and the opponent had to abandon

385
00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:01,720
the run early because they behind by so much. So

386
00:20:02,279 --> 00:20:04,839
keep that in mind as well. And when I say

387
00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:07,799
Iowa sixty five percent at a time, they've run the

388
00:20:07,839 --> 00:20:11,039
ball on offense this year, on offensive plays, they should

389
00:20:11,079 --> 00:20:13,519
say in their first three games they averaged over two

390
00:20:13,559 --> 00:20:16,759
hundred yards per game and close to five yards per

391
00:20:16,759 --> 00:20:21,559
attempt running the ball. Their defense, what else is new? Andy,

392
00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:25,960
The Iowa defense has just been outstanding over their first

393
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:30,519
three games. Again, you know, they did play nationally ranked

394
00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:32,960
Iowa State and held them to two hundred and thirty

395
00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:36,720
eight yards all in all over three games. They've allowed

396
00:20:36,759 --> 00:20:40,200
ten points per game, one hundred and seventy eight yards

397
00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:44,799
per game. They've faced Rutgers four times since twenty sixteen,

398
00:20:45,759 --> 00:20:49,000
and they shut them out twice and gave up ten

399
00:20:49,079 --> 00:20:52,079
points in one game seven and the other obviously winning

400
00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:55,319
all four games with those kind of defensive numbers. I

401
00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:57,799
just think that Iowa is going to run the ball

402
00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:02,039
successfully in this game. They're going to control the clock,

403
00:21:02,839 --> 00:21:05,920
They're gonna keep the Rutgers offense off the field, and

404
00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:09,319
when they have to play defense, this defense is shown

405
00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:12,680
to be extremely good and has been for many years now,

406
00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:16,359
and I just think that Rutgers will wear down late

407
00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:19,759
in the third quarter into the fourth quarter in this game.

408
00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:23,480
I'm gonna go money line here because Iowa minus two

409
00:21:23,559 --> 00:21:27,240
and a half on a points spread across the board.

410
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:30,920
I'm a firm believer. When you get two and a

411
00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:35,119
half or less as a favorite in college football or

412
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:37,839
the NFL, and you can get money line odds of

413
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:41,000
minus one fifty or less, I always opt for the

414
00:21:41,039 --> 00:21:43,839
money line. That's my choice. I'm sure I get an

415
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,279
argument from pres on this one, and that's okay. I

416
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:50,200
like arguing with present present, wakes up in the morning

417
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:53,279
arguing with somebody, So in any event, I'm gonna take

418
00:21:53,319 --> 00:21:56,839
Iowa here minus one thirty eight against Rutgers.

419
00:21:58,599 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 1: I have been on the phone with Presis where we

420
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:02,680
were just casually talking and all of a sudden, within

421
00:22:02,759 --> 00:22:05,799
ten seconds, there was a full blown argument. Is the

422
00:22:05,839 --> 00:22:08,519
only friend I have that that happens? So I have

423
00:22:08,599 --> 00:22:10,680
no other friend. We're just casually talking. All of a

424
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:14,279
sudden we're screaming at each other, So don't I don't

425
00:22:14,319 --> 00:22:17,039
hate the money line, Ross. I always tell people, I like,

426
00:22:17,759 --> 00:22:20,079
there's a half, you know, do you want the better

427
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,680
number on the price, the better number on the prop number?

428
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:24,440
I always want the better prop number. So if you

429
00:22:24,559 --> 00:22:27,960
like the money line and that spread is really really close. Yeah,

430
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:30,200
by all means, but pay the extra juice. You only

431
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:34,519
pay the juice. Let's see lose. So it I like that.

432
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:38,440
I like that approach. Let's talk MLB. Let's do the

433
00:22:38,799 --> 00:22:42,440
Phillies and a Dodgers got Lozardo going for Philly smell

434
00:22:42,519 --> 00:22:45,440
for Dodgers, I believe. Listen, this Dodgers team's only two

435
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:48,880
games up here on the padres. They got to be

436
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,039
tread and lightly here. Philly's got a huge lead in

437
00:22:52,079 --> 00:22:55,359
the division, and the Dodgers always big favorites. Minus one

438
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,680
forty eight over under seven and a half. Boy, that's

439
00:22:57,680 --> 00:22:59,880
low for a Dodgers game, which will break down to you.

440
00:23:00,799 --> 00:23:03,759
Speaker 4: Yeah, it certainly is. I mean there's a couple eights

441
00:23:03,759 --> 00:23:07,240
out there, but the majority of the sports books are

442
00:23:07,279 --> 00:23:09,680
at seven and a half, like Andy just touched upon,

443
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,880
and that jumps out to me. And why, Well, because

444
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,960
you're looking at two teams that have been red hot

445
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:21,640
offensively of late. They played a nine to six game yesterday,

446
00:23:22,319 --> 00:23:25,759
and why has that number come from down from eight

447
00:23:25,799 --> 00:23:29,079
to seven and a half? I fully attribute that to

448
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:33,200
the starting pitchers because both of these bullpens have been

449
00:23:33,319 --> 00:23:35,880
terrible of late. You're looking at a Phillies bullpen with

450
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,000
a five to fifty seven ERA and a one to

451
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,160
fifty two WHIP, five home runs allowed and twenty one

452
00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:44,440
innings pitched over their last seven games. That's not getting

453
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:47,759
it done for a bullpen. And then the Dodgers are

454
00:23:48,279 --> 00:23:52,319
you know, sixth fifty nine ERA, six home runs allowed

455
00:23:52,319 --> 00:23:55,880
in twenty seven and the third innings over their last

456
00:23:55,920 --> 00:24:00,400
six and by the way, shoey Otani five needs a

457
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:02,880
no hit baseball yesterday they pulled them out of the

458
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:06,359
game because again, uh, they've been doing that with Otani

459
00:24:06,559 --> 00:24:09,640
keeping an eye on his UH innings pitched and pitch

460
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:13,519
count so he's fresh for the postseason. And they pulled

461
00:24:13,559 --> 00:24:15,880
him out of the game with a forur to nothing

462
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,359
lead and him throwing a no hitter, and the Dodgers'

463
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:23,599
bullpen gave up nine runs in the last four innings

464
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,160
and the Phillies prevailed nine to six.

465
00:24:26,759 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 5: Uh.

466
00:24:27,039 --> 00:24:29,480
Speaker 4: Then you look at these head to head matchups with

467
00:24:29,519 --> 00:24:34,440
these starting pitchers. The La Dodgers current roster fifteen for

468
00:24:34,599 --> 00:24:38,279
sixty eight against Lazardo. That's just the two twenty one

469
00:24:38,319 --> 00:24:41,720
team batting average. Again, folks, it's the current roster of

470
00:24:41,799 --> 00:24:45,680
the Phillies fifteen for sixty eight lifetime to twenty one

471
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:49,680
team batting average and forty one point five percent of

472
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:53,839
the ELTs recorded uh, which were fifty three outs came

473
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:58,079
by way of strikeouts. So Lozardo seven of his last

474
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:01,240
nine outings have been quality start, which are six innings

475
00:25:01,279 --> 00:25:03,839
or more and three earned runs are less allowed.

476
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:04,440
Speaker 1: Uh.

477
00:25:04,599 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 4: So he's been on his game. And then also Snell

478
00:25:08,039 --> 00:25:13,160
against the current Phillies lineup. You're talking about the Phillies

479
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:16,680
as a team and their current roster. Again, I want

480
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:20,279
to clarify that. Uh, they're hitting one fifty one as

481
00:25:20,319 --> 00:25:24,480
a team against Snell, and they've struck out forty six

482
00:25:24,519 --> 00:25:27,799
point eight percent of the time. Uh in terms of

483
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:31,519
the outs they made. So I like this game. We're

484
00:25:31,559 --> 00:25:35,920
gonna I want to eliminate the bullpens Andy, Okay, for

485
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:37,039
obvious reasons.

486
00:25:37,559 --> 00:25:37,799
Speaker 1: Uh.

487
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:41,559
Speaker 4: And I'm gonna make this a first five inning totals wager.

488
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:43,279
Speaker 3: You could get.

489
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:46,759
Speaker 4: Four and a half at Draft Kings and ESPN Bet

490
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:49,880
right now. DraftKings you're gonna have to lay one forty five.

491
00:25:50,599 --> 00:25:54,720
ESPN Bet you have to lay one thirty five if

492
00:25:54,759 --> 00:25:58,359
you don't have accounts at either one of those sportsbooks.

493
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:00,720
The rest are gonna be at four. So I'm just

494
00:26:00,759 --> 00:26:03,559
gonna say this. My official pick is under four and

495
00:26:03,599 --> 00:26:06,200
a half for the first five innings, but I would

496
00:26:07,319 --> 00:26:11,000
not shy away from the four. So anything four or

497
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:14,359
greater for the first five inning total in this game,

498
00:26:14,839 --> 00:26:18,480
got under that number. That is my pick for this

499
00:26:18,559 --> 00:26:20,480
game between the Phillies and the Dodgers.

500
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,039
Speaker 1: Love it, love it. Good breakdown there, Ross, We're gonna

501
00:26:24,039 --> 00:26:27,480
play this line. It makes no sense. But looking here,

502
00:26:27,519 --> 00:26:30,880
you had a really good college football week last week. Yeah, yeah,

503
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:33,680
nice work. Four to oh what are ten and five

504
00:26:34,039 --> 00:26:36,160
this year? So college football has been going well for you.

505
00:26:36,559 --> 00:26:38,160
Tell us what you have about for clients.

506
00:26:38,559 --> 00:26:42,440
Speaker 4: Yeah. I don't have anything up yet, but I will. Okay,

507
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:45,039
most likely I'm not going to have anything for Thursday

508
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:47,480
or Friday. I don't know that for sure yet, but

509
00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:52,200
that's where I'm leaning. And then this card this week

510
00:26:52,319 --> 00:26:56,400
I'm not overly crazy about, but I will have at

511
00:26:56,519 --> 00:27:00,279
least three picks up on Saturday in college football, including

512
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:05,440
a five percent best bet, possibly four. So again, folks,

513
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:08,759
college football five percent best bets so far this season

514
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:13,400
three and zero. I cashed in with LSU in Week

515
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:18,079
one as an underdog outright at Clemson. Also cashed with

516
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:22,960
Oklahoma minus five in week twosday won by eleven against Michigan.

517
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:26,079
And last week I had Tennessee plus four and a

518
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:29,519
half should have won the game outright, but they didn't,

519
00:27:29,759 --> 00:27:32,480
but they did cover as they lose by three in

520
00:27:32,559 --> 00:27:35,240
overtime to Georgia as a plus four and a half dog.

521
00:27:35,799 --> 00:27:38,680
So a lot of good things happen in college football.

522
00:27:38,759 --> 00:27:41,359
Not only that folks ten and five this year, but

523
00:27:41,559 --> 00:27:45,799
number one in win percentage, in number one and units

524
00:27:45,839 --> 00:27:49,119
earned last year, and since it started the twenty twenty

525
00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:53,319
three college football season, I am number one in units

526
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:56,319
earned in college football. So keep an eye on my

527
00:27:56,400 --> 00:28:00,799
college football coming up on Saturday, possibly some on Thursday

528
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:06,799
or Friday. So again WT dot buzz slash RBT at

529
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:11,759
WT dot buzz slash rb is my direct link over

530
00:28:11,839 --> 00:28:14,680
atwaightertalk dot com.

531
00:28:15,079 --> 00:28:18,039
Speaker 1: You can use the Weekend Warrior Pass on Ross forty

532
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:20,799
nine dollars get you the entire weekend plus any plays

533
00:28:21,079 --> 00:28:22,720
might have up on Monday. See at all of his

534
00:28:22,799 --> 00:28:26,000
Saturday plays, all of the Sunday plays all Monday in

535
00:28:26,079 --> 00:28:29,000
football only forty nine dollars all right, Speaking of college

536
00:28:29,039 --> 00:28:35,400
football ross. This line makes no sense. Which line did

537
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:36,599
you pick on this week?

538
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 4: Well, you know, it's not a powerful conference game, but

539
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:43,960
it's a game that I think when the casual better

540
00:28:45,279 --> 00:28:48,519
looks at this line and sees un OLB is just

541
00:28:48,559 --> 00:28:52,440
a two and a half point favorite against Miami Ohio,

542
00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:57,680
a lot of people will tend to jump immediately and

543
00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:01,240
say UNLV is the play. Now I'm not saying they're not, okay,

544
00:29:01,279 --> 00:29:05,480
So these segments are for you to be aware of

545
00:29:05,559 --> 00:29:09,000
everything going into that so you're not tricked and you

546
00:29:09,039 --> 00:29:13,440
don't fall into a trap as well. It's called buyer beware.

547
00:29:14,359 --> 00:29:17,640
This is a West Coast team obviously in UNLV, and

548
00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:21,079
they're going to be playing a noon Eastern time kickoff. Okay,

549
00:29:21,279 --> 00:29:25,000
that's that's for starters. They're also going to be playing

550
00:29:25,039 --> 00:29:27,960
a Miami Ohio team that started the year zero and two.

551
00:29:28,039 --> 00:29:30,000
By the way, UNLV is three and oh and are

552
00:29:30,039 --> 00:29:32,160
only minus two and a half against an oh and

553
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:36,400
two team. So that's another part of the perception of

554
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:40,799
false perception that could possibly happen when betting on a

555
00:29:40,839 --> 00:29:45,359
game like this in Miami Ohio desperate for a win

556
00:29:45,519 --> 00:29:48,640
after starting out oh and two. I mean Miami, Ohio

557
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,079
started out oh and two, but their two losses came

558
00:29:51,119 --> 00:29:56,240
against big town opponents and Rutgers and also Wisconsin, so

559
00:29:56,319 --> 00:29:59,960
they didn't show much offense in those games. Their defense,

560
00:30:00,039 --> 00:30:03,920
it's wore down late because they couldn't sustain anything offensively.

561
00:30:04,359 --> 00:30:06,680
But you look at u LV e they're three and all

562
00:30:06,759 --> 00:30:11,960
start andy. They barely beat Idaho State, an FCS team,

563
00:30:12,039 --> 00:30:14,880
they needed a late touchdown in that game to win.

564
00:30:16,079 --> 00:30:19,359
And then they beat a terrible Sam Houston State team

565
00:30:20,039 --> 00:30:23,359
that I believe is winless against FBS opponents so far

566
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:25,799
this year. And then a UCLA team that's oh and

567
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:28,960
three and just fired their head coach, so it's not

568
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:35,599
like they have played against extremely good competition. And you know,

569
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:38,880
on paper, UNLV is the telling the team right. And

570
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:41,799
you're also looking at UNLV team since it started last

571
00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:46,920
year fourteen and three, okay, fourteen and three overall, and

572
00:30:47,119 --> 00:30:49,720
here they are just a two and a half point

573
00:30:49,839 --> 00:30:53,039
road favored against a MAC team that hasn't won this year.

574
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:56,599
So buyer beware. I'm not saying you should take either

575
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,759
side by what I just told you. I just try

576
00:30:59,759 --> 00:31:03,000
and in these segments to make sure you cross the

577
00:31:03,079 --> 00:31:05,960
t's and dot the eyes before you just jump on

578
00:31:06,039 --> 00:31:08,920
a brand name or jump on what looks to be

579
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:13,279
an obvious play where you feel you're getting an absolute steal.

580
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:18,079
Speaker 1: That West Coast playing the noon game, that just that

581
00:31:18,119 --> 00:31:21,759
trips people up all the time, Like I feel like

582
00:31:21,839 --> 00:31:27,400
it's such an under studied thing. The Oregon they started

583
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:31,039
off slow last week at Northwestern. That first quarter was

584
00:31:31,039 --> 00:31:33,200
so sluggish and it was like, oh yeah, West Coast

585
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:38,119
team starting at noon. So great work, Ross, absolutely fantastic work.

586
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:41,599
Congrats on college football. Thank you so much for joining us.

587
00:31:41,839 --> 00:31:44,920
Use the weekend Warrior pass on Ross Benjamin forty nine

588
00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:48,400
dollars get you Saturday, Sunday and Monday all football plays.

589
00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:51,680
He's coming off of four to oh clean sweep Happy Wednesday. Ross.

590
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:53,119
Can't wait to do this again next week.

591
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:55,599
Speaker 4: I look forward to an Andy and thank you once

592
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:57,079
again for having me my friend.

593
00:31:58,079 --> 00:32:02,079
Speaker 1: Anytime, anytime. All right, guys, we're almost done here. I

594
00:32:02,119 --> 00:32:04,319
did want to take a look at some props here

595
00:32:04,319 --> 00:32:07,279
for Thursday night football if we could real quick, Chris,

596
00:32:07,799 --> 00:32:09,480
you don't need to pull up anything here. I just

597
00:32:09,519 --> 00:32:13,640
wanted to go over a couple interesting props here. I'm

598
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:17,839
going to the rushing props and our Week three props

599
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,240
pack is up by the way. We swept Monday, so

600
00:32:20,279 --> 00:32:23,200
we're now we've hit fifty nine percent of our props

601
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:26,079
in NFL this season. Could not be happier with that.

602
00:32:26,079 --> 00:32:30,480
That is a sustainable winning percentage. We've cashed both weeks.

603
00:32:30,839 --> 00:32:32,960
Like I said, we hit both of our plays on Monday.

604
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:34,519
So if you want to lock in that, you're gonna

605
00:32:34,519 --> 00:32:37,079
get all props from Thursday all the way through Monday.

606
00:32:37,119 --> 00:32:40,400
It's an absolutely smoking deal. We're sixteen and eleven this year,

607
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:44,960
just chipping away profit after profit after profit. Pretty decent volume.

608
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:47,920
We're high volume this year compared to last year, so

609
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:49,839
we want to lock that in. It's only fifteen bucks.

610
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:52,519
You get all these props. I'm going to this rushing yards.

611
00:32:52,559 --> 00:32:56,920
I'm looking at Ray Davis over twenty three and a half.

612
00:32:58,319 --> 00:33:00,480
This game could get out of control. This is a

613
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:04,279
twelve and a half point spread. Miami has just looked terrible.

614
00:33:04,759 --> 00:33:07,480
Buffalo has looked like a buzzsaw. If they get up

615
00:33:07,519 --> 00:33:11,880
in the second half, Buffalo absolutely pulls James Cook and

616
00:33:12,119 --> 00:33:14,680
gets Ray Davis carries. Ray Davis only had one carry

617
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:16,960
in Week one, then he had nine carries in week

618
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:20,599
two for twenty four yards. I think ray Davis gets there,

619
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:23,119
and if you want to play this even sneakier, you

620
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:25,559
may be able to live bet this if ray Davis

621
00:33:25,559 --> 00:33:27,720
doesn't play on like the first series, but I would

622
00:33:27,759 --> 00:33:29,359
take him now. I like him over twenty three and

623
00:33:29,359 --> 00:33:31,119
a half. I think Ray Davis gets quite a bit.

624
00:33:31,359 --> 00:33:34,039
James Cook has been a monster the last couple weeks.

625
00:33:34,079 --> 00:33:36,240
I'm sure he'll be really good, but again, fourth quarter,

626
00:33:36,279 --> 00:33:40,240
I could see this being a Ray Davis game. You

627
00:33:40,359 --> 00:33:43,160
like Shakiro over forty one and a half receiving yards,

628
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:47,759
can't be mad at that one. I haven't looked up Shakir,

629
00:33:47,839 --> 00:33:51,359
but it's all I mean. Look at these touchdown props

630
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:53,680
minus one eighty for James Cook to score a touchdowns

631
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:56,200
crazy minus won eighty. I don't think I'm laying that

632
00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:58,519
kind of juice, but of course he's gonna cash. So

633
00:33:58,759 --> 00:34:00,359
all right, guys, it's gonna do it for Thank you

634
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:02,039
so much for joining us. Don't forget we're doing the

635
00:34:02,039 --> 00:34:05,279
same thing tomorrow here noon Eastern. Make sure you hit

636
00:34:05,279 --> 00:34:07,319
that like button. Leave us a comment below in the

637
00:34:07,359 --> 00:34:09,679
comment section, tell us what best bet you like, and

638
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,079
if you want to hear any individual game breakdowns, put

639
00:34:12,119 --> 00:34:13,719
him in the comment section. We'll seef we can do.

640
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:17,239
I know somebody in the chat asked for the Michigan breakdown.

641
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:19,639
We'll sue what we can do. So just put him

642
00:34:19,679 --> 00:34:22,039
down there in the comment section again. The weekend Warrior.

643
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:25,280
That's good for any handicapper on a wager TALKI lock

644
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:29,480
in Saturday, Sunday and Monday. It went so well last weekend,

645
00:34:29,559 --> 00:34:31,480
decided to do it again, so when you guys tell

646
00:34:31,559 --> 00:34:33,719
us what you like and what works well, we'll keep

647
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:35,960
doing it. So and so many people sign up for

648
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:38,079
this and say, hey, do it again next weekend. Doing

649
00:34:38,119 --> 00:34:41,840
it again, so all five percent plays are included, props, parlays,

650
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:45,119
money line spreads, anything for Saturday and Sunday. And as

651
00:34:45,119 --> 00:34:47,760
a bonus, we're throwing in Monday only forty nine dollars.

652
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:51,719
It's over at the deal's page WT dot buzz Slash Deals.

653
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:53,559
All right, thanks for joining us. Oh I wanted to

654
00:34:53,679 --> 00:34:56,159
also say a shout out to Joe, Andrew and Harold

655
00:34:56,920 --> 00:35:01,800
members of the Insiders WT dot buzz Slash Inside. If

656
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:03,480
it's only two ninety nine a month and at the

657
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:05,079
beginning of the month, you get a five dollars coupon

658
00:35:05,199 --> 00:35:08,320
for the website. You get access to the Boji's and

659
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:10,239
bit boji's and things like that. We also got some

660
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:12,960
exclusive contact coming to the Insiders. So you want to

661
00:35:13,039 --> 00:35:16,119
join the special YouTube Insiders. It's wt dot bus slash Insider.

662
00:35:16,159 --> 00:35:18,000
It's only two ninety nine and you get a five

663
00:35:18,039 --> 00:35:20,760
dollars coupon at the beginning of the month, so absolute

664
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:22,960
no brainer. So shout out to Joe, Andrew and Harold

665
00:35:23,039 --> 00:35:25,800
new members for the Insiders. Thanks very much, guys, have

666
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:28,440
a great Wednesday. We'll see everybody tomorrow. Good luck on

667
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:29,719
your bets today. Take care,