Speaker 1: NHL Best Bets for Wednesday, March the eighteenth, and someone
commented yesterday and said, I yell a little bit too
much off the intro, So we'll try and keep it
a little bit quiet here today on the show, guys.
But hope you all had a winning Tuesday night, made
some money and enjoyed all the NHL games. As these
wildcard races are getting better and better. Today's show we
got just carm and I look forward to going through
a handful of great games here and finding you guys
some winners. The pod is back and better than ever.
I'm sure Car's got you guys set up for a winner.
And I got a big play on the ice tonight.
I was waiting for some information right before the show
started here, but I'm getting that play punched in you guys,
and grab that at wager talk dot com yesterday it
was a two and two day, but when you give
out mostly plus money, you still end up making money
with a two and two day, so I'm happy about that.
And well, I was just complaining to Carl about how
I had the Islanders over a team total and fell
like it was the right side three goals halfway through
the game. And they don't get there. Carla, I'm gonna
go to you with this. You always want the empty
net goal to, you know, maybe get that last goal
or the puck line of the fourth goal. The Islander's
got a four minute power play and they didn't execute
on the power play. They're passing it around. But the
worst part about that power play was that because they
were on the power play, I didn't get the empty
net chance until like the last second. So Hinstein's twenty twenty.
But what I have even wanted that power play? I
think I would have just preferred the empty net man,
How is your night?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I actually hate the empty I actually hate the
power play at the end of the game because teams
will just dump it instead of aiming for the nets.
They're just dumping it and you don't get the goalie
out of the net. And you know, if you get
that power play with like two minutes and forty seconds left,
you're gonna get maybe forty seconds of empty net time,
which I don't think is enough. So that does blow
my five dollars. Play on Tampa Bay and regulation got there.
They beat the Seattle Cracking. It started strong and then
the Krackings got a little bit of life and then
the Kraken did what the kra can do, which is
just not playing well defensively. But kudos to John Cooper
finally getting this team to play a complete sixty minutes.
This team had the worst record out of the Olympic
Break of all teams in the NHL, and he's got
them back on track. So we'll see what happens in
their next game and see if they can keep that
momentum going. But listen, yesterday's show was action packed, guys,
and if you guys tuned in, the press was on
first and he very rarely bets against the Toronto Maple Leafs,
but told you guys to take the New York Islanders.
Don Buster took the over in the Edmonton game over seven.
He said, don't leave the juice with six and a half.
Take the seven, be happy with a push. If it
lands on seven, well, more goals than that. Eight goals
gets the winner. And Brian Leonard, God bless his soul.
He took the Buffalo Sabers against his Vegas Golden Knights,
and the Sabers get it done. Whether you think they
deserved it or not, they found a way to win
it held on to that one, nothing lead until an
empty netter to assault it away. I didn't even have
any action on that one, Andrew and I stayed up
to watch it just to see if the Sabers could
hold on. And then I mentioned that Columbus game, that
Columbus fifteen two and four since Rick Bonus took over,
And man, did they slap around the Carolina Hurricanes last night.
They're now sixteen two and four since since the coaching change.
It's unbelievable how some of these teams are playing. So yeah,
it really is.
Speaker 1: This Columbus Blue Jackets team. What a ride it has
been for them. And I think I'm less shocked that
they played well and more shocked at the Hurricanes got
slapped around the way they did. And you know, yesterday
I talked about in the Montreal Canadians game with Buster,
when you exited the screen and you're like, all right,
you two Habs fans, you guys can handicap this game.
I gave out Bruins under two and a half goals. Man,
oh man, that was a sweat car. So I can't
complain about my Islanders one if I hit the Bruins one,
because what goes around, comes around sometimes, I guess. And
the Canadians took a penalty thirty three seconds into the
game and then they got scored on. So the team
total under got off to a very very bad start,
but we end up hitting that and defense was the
name of the game. These divisional matchups are so important.
And we had a comment who was it here, Steve?
Steve Duke said, sprayed all the draws and money line
dogs yesterday worked barely, not for the faint of heart.
But you know, Caren, you and I have been talking
about it a little bit on the show these days,
these draw bets. This is where it really starts to work.
You know, they're looking at some of these key games
and I'll be real, the regulation wins matter, but just
the two points in general matter. And I was joking
around with the girlfriend last night saying, once that game
hit five minutes to go in the Habs game, I
was like, they're going to overtime. They're both these teams
want at least one point. They're going to overtime for sure.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know that works so great if nothing else,
that game going to overtime, even though there's a loser point.
Mixed in there, so it becomes a three point game
instead of a two point game. That helps O teams
like the Ottawa Senators, the Columbus Blue Jackets, and the
Detroit Red Wings. Now you're probably thinking, what does he
mean by that? Because one of them got two points,
one of them got one, it's the regulation win. Neither
team got a regulation win. So now you have the
Montreal Canadians on twenty five regulation wins, the Boston Bruins
on twenty seven, Detroit's Detroits at twenty six, Ottawa was
at twenty eight, and they're only five pack of a spot.
Those regulation wins at the end of the season could
very well come into play, Andrew, and if they do
come into play, it is going to hurt some of
these teams. I always each year I talked about the
last week of the NHL season and what happens if
a team needs to win but they can't win it
in overtime. Do they pull their goalie when they are tied.
It very rarely happens, but you love to see it
if it does. So I'm pretty pretty excited about the
next couple of weeks. Could start to the week for me,
I said I would bounce back thirteen one in one
NHL run, and then on the weekend I went something
like one in six. I think I won the first game,
and then I lost six in a row, and I'm like,
you gotta be kidding me. But a couple wins on Monday,
a win yesterday, pick up twelve units across the last
three days, and only one play for today, I am
going to I like this card this whole week, but
I really like games tomorrow, and so tomorrow will be
a multi game card for me. Today will just be
the one game.
Speaker 1: You know, Karmit's it's a bit frustrating because if you
think about baseball handicappers, typically they know who the pitcher
is going to be about twenty four hours to even
forty eight hours at events. I do think that coming
into this year, I did not think necessarily that I
would care as much about goaltending splits as I do.
But for some teams, for current form, and I'm a
huge recent form guy, I don't care what a goalie
did in December anymore, right, I don't care what a
goal was doing in January. It's March seventeen or eighteenth.
So it's so vital for me to be able to
see these confirmation numbers, which is a good thing because
we do this show at eleven am Eastern and we
can project what we think at the end of the day.
We're also I won't speak for you, but for me
with my clients, there's a certain wave of plays you
could get overnight or in the morning, and the next
wave of plays come around one or two o'clock Eastern
time when the morning skates are done with. So I'm
waiting to see some goaltending confirmation. We have mostly projections
right now, but we've got some teams that are battling
for some spots today here, karm, so let's dive into it. Man.
Speaker 2: Yes, sorry, my mic has given me a little bit
of problems this morning, Andrew, So if I disappear off
the screen, it's just me fixing my mic. But one
last thought. Here we are. It is March eighteenth, Andrew,
March eighteenth, and sitting tied but a top the Eastern
Conference standings is the Buffalo Sabers. In what bizarro world
are we living in that the Buffalo Sabers are tied
with the Carolina Hurricanes for first place overall in the
Eastern Conference. It's just I'm waiting. I keep waiting for
the other shoe to drop, but it's not. They're just
playing well. Lindy Rev's got them playing well and first
shutout of the season for a man Uko Pecca lukan In.
So we shall see. But with that said, let's talk
about the aforementioned Carolina Hurricanes. Andrew, let's pop up the
odds on this one. This is a weird It's not
a weird one in the sense of Andrew of what
the line is in this game. But when I look
at this one and you got Carolina minus one sixty
one plus one thirty two bussy obviously losing goal yesterday,
it is going to be Freddie Anderson and goal Stuart
Skinner likely for the Pittsburgh Penguins. The first thought from
everyone is going to be I'm taking Carolina. They got
smoked last night and they're going to bounce back. They're
a much better team at home. The Pittsburgh Penguins found
a way to win on the road, and an impressive
one at that, six to two in Colorado, where not
a lot of teams go in there and get a result.
Not a lot of teams go in there and score
six goals and keep a team to two. The Pens
after that brutal start post post Olympic break, Andrew are
playing a little bit better. Gino Malcolm back in the lineup.
There's talk that Sid could be back soon. Why aren't
the Penguins a live dog here? I think they are.
Speaker 1: I think there's this a enough market respect for the Hurricanes,
even if they're on the back to back look hard
for me. We're seeing six and a half shaded towards
the under in this one here, but I would look
towards the over in this game. A lot of it
is due to the fact that the Hurricanes still create
a ton of chances every game. Last four to five games.
They're still at the top of the league in a
high danger generation. But you know, looking for two games
like that, you get an opportunity to bounce back like Carolina.
I don't know what was going on with them. As
I said to you off the top. Do we compliment
Columbus or do we just insult Carolina? That's the biggest question,
and I think we have to do a little bit
of both. Maybe because we saw a great game from
one team, but a not still great game from the other.
But man, you talk about getting Malkin back and some
of these guys who saw the offense coming from Pittsburgh
this season, I don't think anybody could have seen that
this team would be able to contribute the way that
they have multiple goal scorers, multiple players every night and
getting that win against Colorado that's absolutely massive. But looking
at both these projected goaltenders here in this one camera,
I think we could see some goals here, and you know,
when you take a look at the board overall, and
if we do get Stuart Skinner, I'll throw it out
here that he has been playing pretty well. But if
you look at kind of the expected goals against, he
is superseding some of these numbers, calm that it's unexplainable,
like this is not something he can sustain. His expected
goals against over the last five games are somewhere like
four point three or four point five. And same thing
goes for Anderson. He's got on the year an eight
seventy two, say percentage, and then over the last four
or five games his rebound control has been horrible. So
I said earlier in the year, though with second half
of back to backs, it doesn't mean you always bet overs.
There can be unders on back to backs, but this
game kind of has that feel to me. Remember how
I used to like over when teams got shut out. Well,
Carolina didn't get shut out yesterday, but it kind of
feels like they did. So I have a tough time
believing this one's not going to be just an absolute
back and forth battle. So you're looking for Pittsburgh as
a live dog. If they contribute to the scoreboard, then
I think the over should be able to hit.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, to your point of Skinner. If Skinner's
in goal tonight, he's got twenty wins on the season,
He's got a goals against average at his under three
is eight percentage, just just a tick UNDERD nine. I
think it's like eight ninety one. But we see a
lot of goalies in in that, in that very high
eight hundred percentile, very low nine hundred from that eight
ninety to like nine ten, we see a lot of
goalies in that. So but you look at it five
to one. Pittsburgh wins at home against Carolina earlier this year.
They just played just a little while ago. Screws Stewart
Skinner was goal that game was in Carolina. Uh, and
that game went to overtime and finishes five to four.
They've picked up three of a possible four points against
this Carolina team. I just think that the with other
people looking at games sometimes they just auto They just
want to auto bet a good team that lost the
night before or two nights previous, and think that they're
going to bounce back in this spot. And I'm not
entirely sure. You know, the Canes are sort of win
one lose one, win one lose one type of thing.
The the Pens have gone three to one and one
their last five, and one of their losses was that
six to two loss to the Vegas Golden Knights. That's
their only bad loss over the last five games. They
have an ot loss and and three wins and that one.
You know, coming back against Utah a good win there.
Going into Colorado and winning there a good win there.
So coming back to the East Coast playing Carolina to
end this road trip, I think it's a I think
it's the end of the road trip for them. I
think they're a live dog at Plus, I'm not laying
that price with Carolina. I think Carolina's the better team,
of course, I do. They're first in the Eastern Conference,
but the Pens are trying to make a playoff push
and sometimes Moe is in the.
Speaker 1: Building momentum, we'll see what happens. You know. It's funny, Karme,
because we've seen this so many times, even without the
new format for playoffs. But it's looking like, right in
front of our eyes, we're once again going to see
a New York Islanders Penguins playoff matchup. Unless anything changes
from here on out. The only thing that looks like
could change is going to be the home ice advantage.
Which team gets home ice. But uh, they're doing all
this without Pittsburgh, And I'm gonna throw this out there.
There's not going to be a soul in the world
that thinks that Pittsburgh has a chance in that series.
That's why you're getting good odds on the Stanley Cup
on the Eastern Conference. Very curious what number we get
on that series as a whole. But I am I
am I off to say that the general population are
going to like the Islanders quite a bit in that series.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I believe so. But you know the weird thing,
Andrew is uh and you and I have discussed this
pretty much over the last two to three months. This
NHL season is like no other. I don't remember another
NHL season where a lot of the preseason narratives at
least mine, and you know, call a spade is spade,
at least mine. We're wrong. I just thought Pittsburgh was
gonna have a miserable season, and they're having a very
good season. I thought the Toronto Maple Leafs would have
a better season the second year under their their coach,
a Barubay, and they've regressed. They ever replaced Mitch Martner.
They looked absolutely terrible. So, you know, did I expect
the Rangers to be where they are? No? The led Kings. No.
It is just there are so many teams that you're
looking at, and like Washington Capitals, the Ottawa Senators, they're
not in the top eight right And then you know, conversely,
the Buffalo Sabers are in there. If you remember the
beginning of the season, I said, and I think you said,
I think the Sabers have a chance to make the
playoffs this year. And I asked you what you were smoking,
because I thought there was no way this team was
making the playoffs again. You know what I mean, you
have to admit when you're wrong. But this is a
season like no other. So to your point, why wouldn't
the NHL playoffs be any different in the sense of
teams that are favored to win their series not winning
their series. Yeah, favor five percent, one hundred percent. You
got Sorokan and goal. Sorocan's phenomenal. He's playing great, the
team is playing great. You got Schaeffer. Shaeffer had a
thousand people at the leaf Skain yesterday, family and friends.
A thousand people. Who buys those tickets?
Speaker 1: Who knows a thousand people? Who knows that many people? Anyway?
Speaker 2: A thousand people? I don't even think I've met a
thousand people and introduced myself over the years. But who
buys those tickets? Especially in Toronto? So I want to
know where they came up with a thousand tickets for
Matthew Shaeffer's friends yesterday, friends and family, a thousand tickets.
But here's my question. Very good, very good team in
New York. Seriously, a very good team in New York.
And you think in the state of New York when
you know what I mean, and New Jersey, if you
thought about the four team in which ones would make
the playoffs, you'd probably be talking about the New Jersey
Devils and the New York Rangers and not the New
York Islanders and the Buffalo Sabers. So this is the
season we're having, Andrew, I ain't there just gonna be
surprises in the playoffs?
Speaker 1: Yeah? I think so too. But I think also maybe
there's gonna be a lot of these teams that were
hot all year that might cool down in the playoffs.
Everybody wants to see the next Saint Louis Blues, right,
Everybody wants to see the next team that started not good.
Like I saw a quote someone said the Ottawa Senators
could miss the playoffs or the Autawa Senators could go
to the conference finals. Same thing goes for the Blue Jackets,
same thing goes for the Buffalo Sabers. You know, like
it you just don't really know. And look, we're gonna
talk about one team at the end of the show
for a maker missed the playoffs, so they're not even
in the playoffs right now, and they're heavy favorites to
make it. So I gotta I got a question for
the for the live chat and for people to comment afterwards.
Here karm and As you guys know the comments afterwards,
they help us out on the show. So here's my question.
If you got a free bet right now, and you
had to take a future, but the future had to
be ten to one or higher, what would you be
taking in the NHL right now? So pretty much outside
of the Big Four, who would you be taking in
the NHL to win the Stanley Cup? And you could
go about value, you can go about just who Ethan's
gonna win. So pretty much outside of Colorado, Tampa, Carolina,
and Vegas, there's Dallas, Edmonton, Minnesota, Buffalo, Utah, Ottawa. I mean,
think about this. Carl Pittsburgh is sitting in a playoff
spot right now, right They're sitting in a playoff spot
right now. They're fifty to one. The Ottawa Senators are
not in a playoff spot. They are thirty five to one.
They have like they are not even in a playoff spot,
and they have that better odds. Again, the LA Kings
right now sixty to one, the Islanders sixty to one.
I mean, it's crazy.
Speaker 2: It is nuts, and I know we got to get
to the next game, but let me tell you, like
the way this NHL season, guys have has gone with
so many surprises and stuff. Andrew I would build an
underground bunker bomb shelter if the Standy Cup Finals was
the Edmonton Oiters versus the Pittsburgh Penguins, and Stuart Skinner
gets exact revenge on Tristan Jari and the Edmonton Oiters
and leads the Pittsburgh Penguins to a Cup in side
cross Sydney Crosby's last season in the NHL. Come on, man,
it is no there's nothing in my tea. It's just tea.
But the bizarro world we're living in the bizarro world.
Speaking of bizarro world, the two capital cities face tonight,
the Washington Capitals and the Ottawa Senators. Andrew money on
the sends in this one, coming in minus one thirty
capitals plus one oh eight total sits here at six
and a half shaded minus one twenty to the under.
Where are you going with this one?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean just looking at the way the Senator's
team has been playing car They've been in playoff mode
for a very very long time now. This team, since
the return from the Olympics, they have been I think
one of the best, if not the best teams in
the entire league. It's been so good to see. But
the fact is is that if you're the Ottawa Senators
you're getting a win, then you're looking around you and saying, Okay,
they just won too. They just won too. So that's
a little bit different. Last five games for the Washington
Capitals expected goals against per game three point four goals,
leaky defense. Right now, they're going a ton of high
danger championship chances and their offense actually has not been
that strong. So this is one of those things for me,
I think Ottawa's got to be the play. Look, Logan
Thompson is fantastic. Logan Thompson is a goalie that I
want to be backing. But I'm either playing the Under
or I'm playing Ottawa. And you just mentioned it. Money
has come in on them. The Washington Capitols have been
giving up chances lately, and this Ottawa Senators team, not
only have they found their offense, they've been playing well
defensively in their own end. So whether it's the Under
or whether it's Ottawa, those are the two leans that
I have in this one. This Every time I watch
the Washington Capitols play, and I think there was it
might have been last weekend, carm I had a bet
on the Washington Capitals. They lost the game like two
to one. You know, Logan Thompson stands on his head,
but they just can't score for him, and the offense
is a knemick right now. I don't see that changing.
Tonight's six and a half. If you can find it,
I'll take the under.
Speaker 2: What do you think, I'm not going to argue with you,
man six and a half. I like the under in
this one. Even though the Caps are giving up chances,
they're playing well in goal. Logan Thompson is confirmed for
this one. I would think it's going to be Linus Allmark.
I think he's going to get a majority of the
starts the rest of the way for Ottawa who need
to win games. And you talked about the fact that
that you know the scoring is dried up for the Capitals,
it gets I think a little tougher tonight. I believe
the Ottawa Senators. I don't have the numbers in front
of me. I believe the Auto Senators lead the league
in fewest shots allowed. I saw a game in which
I think it was something shy of twenty four. It
was like twenty three and a half shots on goal
or something that they're allowing per game. You're not going
to score a lot of goals when or you're not
going to allow a lot of goals when your goal
is playing well like Almark is and you're allowing less
than twenty four shots on goal. I think that's why
all marks save percentages a little worse than we would expect.
It's under nine, but that's because not a lot of
shots on goal, you let a couple in. It obviously
affects that save percentage. But seven of nine games for
the Capitals since the Olympic restart have stayed under the number.
The only two games that have gone over they beat
the Calgary Flames seven to three on this what was
a horrendous road trip for the Calgary Flames, and the
Montreal Canadians beat Washington six to two. Those are the
only two games post Olympic break that Washington's been involved
in that have had at least six goals in them
or more. So, you know what that said, Everything else
has been five or less. Give me the under in
this one as well.
Speaker 1: And you got to think, like pretty much when teams
are trying to make the playoffs, or a game feels
like the playoffs for them, every game has to have
that playoff mindset, like you're scared make mistakes, you want
to be extra careful. I feel like that's got to
be the case here, guys, for the Ottawa Senators, I mean,
every game is so important for them. Actually, Karen, since
we're on the topic here, let's just take a little
bit of a peek and take a look at what
the number is for the draw in this game? What
are you seeing for the draw here? I'm seeing plus
three ten? Could we see overtime in this game? The
Autowa Senators need wins, they need two points, not one.
But could we see this game go to an extra frame?
Plus three ten is the current numbers, so time will
tell with that. And you talk about shot suppression. The
shot suppression is really good with this Autawa Senator's team,
but shots on goal four has been a big thing
for them as well. So you know, what I think
could be a good look as well is the Logan
Thompson safe prop to the over. You know a lot
of times I like betting unders on goalies. I think
won't get that much action, But guys, this could be
one of those games where you've got a high volume opponent,
a high volume Autawa Senators team against a Logan Thompson,
who you know we just mentioned on the show. He
has been fantastic for a long time. So if you
can get a pretty good number, I would take it.
And I'm seeing at one book right now twenty four
and a half. And the funny thing is all Mark's
number is twenty two and a half. So karm you
mentioned that shot suppression. They are literally thinking that all
Mark is barely gonna face anything because his number is
twenty two and a half. But I'll give that one
out on the show as well, Logan Thompson over twenty
four and a half saves, because I do have respect
for what he's able to do. But the more I
talk myself into this game, car, the more I like
the under. And you know, every game is a must
win for Ottawa. I was talking to an Autawa Senators
fan yesterday at the store and I said, well, you
guys aren't gonna win every game the rest of the season,
and he said, why not, Yeah, maybe they could, Maybe
they could.
Speaker 2: I'm trying to find the Ottawa one per game this season.
Speaker 1: But what are you looking.
Speaker 2: For my official the Ottawa Senators what they're allowing shots
on goal per game this season. So the Otawa Senators
are allowing twenty eight it looks like twenty eight or no.
Twenty four point three, which is the second lowest, only
to the Carolina Hurricanes at twenty four point one. So,
as I mentioned low shots on that's where sometimes the
goalieprops come in and you want to if you see
a bad saves saves number, you might want to bet
the under in it. So the all mark one you
said was at twenty two and a half. That seems
about right. Okay, it seems about right, So no mistake there.
Let's move on, Andrew. Let's find another game to discuss
because we still have a few more things to cover.
So let me get rid of this one. How's about
we talk about this has to be the marquee game
of the night. It is the Dallas Stars and these
two teams just played a little short while ago. No
wrong one, I'm sorry.
Speaker 1: Let's get Colorado minus one fifty. There you go, bound
one out here, come back, come back, Let's get you
back here.
Speaker 2: So Colorado snapped that win streak of the Dallas Stars
that I think it was like at twelve or thirteen games.
The Stars have been phenomenal for the most part. Andrew
plus one twenty seven a rapid revenge spot for you.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, what are we going to get from
this Colorado team? They haven't played a game since Nathan
McKinnon called them out. He said, Hey, what the hell
are we doing? We don't look like we're on the
same page. Sometimes if you're winning games, it disguises all
the problems you have. Here's the question I have for
people is that would you be more concerned if they
lost to Pittsburgh or if they lost to Dallas? Because
I know that good teams play, they should beat everybody.
But I don't care what anybody says. I'm the type
of handicapper that's on the side of teams get up
for some games more than the other. And I feel
like Colorado's going to be ready to go for this one.
But their underlying metrics don't necessarily back that up a
little bit here, so that's what makes it a little
bit confusing. This to me again is an underspot. There's
so many times on the show this year, on Puck Time,
I've talked about it. If a team gives up six,
seven or higher, I like to look towards the un
in the next game. We know Colorado's got offensive capability,
We certainly know Dallas has offensive capability, and obviously we
know the game that Dallas is off of. Both teams
aren't happy right now, carm I kind of like the under.
As dangerous as it is to take an under between
these two teams. I'm looking to find some way, shape
or form to look for defense in this hockey game.
Speaker 2: I would tend to agree with you, Andrew on that one.
The Dallas Stars, Okay, I don't know what happened to
them last time. That was that fishy line that we
talked about, and make me understand why the Stars were
in a bigger favorite against the Utah Mammoth and the
Mammoth win that one sixth three. You got to go
back exactly two months to January January the eighteenth to
find the last time the Dallas Stars lost two games
in a row. Andrew, they lost to the Mammoth. They
follow that up with a four to one loss to
Tampa Bay and then win on that insane run that
they've been on, and they just they just keep winning games.
This one's big in the sense of the number one
seed in the Western Conference. It's it is still up
for grabs. You have the Stars who are three back,
win this game in regulation, and you pull within one
game of them while you've played one game more. But
you're right there. The Dallas Stars will love nothing better
than to have a first round by, sorry not a
first round by but the number one seed and avoid
playing the Minnesota while in the first round and let
Colorado and Minnesota go at it in that one. Back
to back losses for the for Colorado, I've seen better,
I've seen other good teams, Andrew lose three four five
in a row. I would take the plus money here
with the Dallas Stars. They well, they play well on
the road. I get it. Colorado's coming off an embarrassing loss,
but I think Landeskog's is still out of the lineup
for him, so we'll see what happens with them. They're
still deep down the middle. But this is a very
good Dallas team, and off of that loss at home
in ot a quick rapid revenge spot. I'd rather take
the plus money than lay a buck forty or buck
fifty on on the Avalanche. So I'm kind of pushing
the buttons on some plus money place today with Pittsburgh
and the Dallas Stars. But if you like them, you
got to mention them. And that's what I'm trying to
do to you guys right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, karm trust your gut. You're having a
great year, You're on a great run. Trust your gut
with it. And you know what, Like sometimes you look
at a game and you want to just bet the
team that has the plus next to it, because it's
two great teams right now, let's take the plus money.
That's what it comes down to when it comes to
this one. Goaltending wise, I'm going to put you on
the spot here if the playoffs started tomorrow, who's your
number one goalie? Blackwood or Wedgwood? Because I thought forever
it was Blackwood and then this year Wedgwood is almost
played better. But then a lot of people think that
Jared Bendar likes Blackwood better. So what do you think
who's your number one goalie?
Speaker 2: I think, but I think black I think Blackwood, you
know what I mean? Like, I think the thing that
happens is when there's a goalie injury and the guy
who's the number two or a very good one A
to use horse racing terms, a one in one A
a coupled entry. You have two very good goalies and
one of them gets injured, the other guy fills in.
He's not used to playing a you know, a forty
or fifty game season, but in those initial twenty twenty
first twenty games that he's playing, he's playing extremely well.
But I think over the course of a season it
weighs on you and having Blackwood come back, you know,
I mean, I think obviously a couple of injuries for
Colorado also hurts them. At the beginning of the season,
when they were playing phenomenal hockey, Colorado and I mentioned
him many times, were injury free. They had everyone playing.
It was a perfect scenario for them to go on
an insane run with a talented team. But now you
miss a couple of players, you have to rejig the lines,
and as far as like goaltending goes, I think it's
got to be Blackwood. I think he shoulders more of
the load, and heading into the playoffs, he would be
my choice. He's been in for a couple of stinkers,
But when you look at a game like the one
that you know, I saw them play against Pittsburgh where
Wedgwood just did not look good. The five shots on
goalie lost three and they yank them right away of
that game. It is tough. You know, Pittsburgh goes on
to win that game seven too, but effectively, when you
allowed three goals and then you're down I think for
nothing at one point, the whole, the whole makeup of
the game changes. So even your backup goalie, who obviously
was Blackwood, comes in and you could say, well, he
allowed four goals. It is a completely different game because
you're playing an offensive game and not focusing on defense.
It's different coming in in a four nothing when you're
behind four nothing and coming in when you're down three
to two. It is a completely different game for a goalie.
So Blackwood for me, man.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's important to know who your your
your goalie, your number one guy is. I think that
you don't want to have your team, or your fans
or anybody wondering who the number one guy is. I
think in the NHL, we've seen this season that it's
okay for teams to run two goalies quite a bit
unless you're you know, the Tampa Bay Lightning, or the
New York Rangers or even probably the LA King some
teams like that. But once you get down to playoff time,
I think it's very important to know, you know, hey,
what what is going to be the best option for
us to have success? And then krm, it's never a
good thing if you go back home. Let's say you're
the away team, you go back home, two people start
asking do you change goalies? I'm always surprised how often
we actually see goalie changes in the postseason.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well we've seen them. We've seen goalies getting knocked out.
Remember the Louis de Ming thing. Yeah, with Pittsburgh, it
is tough because you know, I think we saw it
in the Toronto and Tampa series where the first two
games they split. The first two games of that series
opening round to the playoffs. I think that was a
series that the Leafs eventually won, but then a lost
to the Bruins in the next round where there were
seven goals scored by the winning team on you know,
in game one, and seven goals scored by the winning
team in game two. Like, what do you do if
your goalie allows seven goals in Game one? Do you
give him another chance in game two and just chalk
it up to the team did not play while they
weren't prepared, and you give him a second chance. This
is why I'm not a coach or a general manager,
because you know, my thought is, you know, let's get
the guy out of there. But the worst thing I
think you can do andrew to a team and that
locker room is flip flopping goalies throughout this thing. The
Edmonton Oders did it though, you know, with Stewart Skinner
and god, now his name is gonna streak my mind.
Speaker 1: No last year pick pick.
Speaker 2: Picker, that's it. I mean they So I think you
gotta go with your guy. And if you was your
guy all season long, unless there's an injury no one
knows about, uh, you stick with your guy and you
got you have to give him at least a couple
of games even if he struggles in game one. If
he struggles again in game two and it wasn't because
of the defense or you're forwards not back checking, then
maybe you switch the goalie for game three to inspire
or give him that kick kind of like a fight.
When you're down two or three goals, it's supposed to
spark your bench.
Speaker 1: And sometimes you just need that because it's like you
can't fire all the players. You can't bench all the players,
so you have to do something too to get the
guys going, right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, definitely. All right, So we've we've settled on
we're taking the Dallas Stars tonight, right.
Speaker 1: Well, I am, I'm taking the under take, all right.
Speaker 2: So we have a couple of things to do your
I think what we're gonna do Andrew is, let's do
the same game Parla, if you have it ready some
prop bets, then I'll do the pod. Then we'll do
a make or miss with you, and then we will
close out the show with some promos. How does that sound.
Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to the make or miss, but I'm
going to say this, KRM, I've got a five percent
loaded tonight in the NHL. You guys know, the team
totals have been my thing and really looking forward to
this one tonight. This is one that I looked at
quite a bit last night. I really want to get
in a role with these five percent plays and I
think just everything really adds up very well with this.
So you guys can get it. You guys know, I
love the team totals, and when you bet this, you
don't have to worry about what the opponent does. You're
betting for one team to reach third goal number and
that's all you need. It's worked out for us a
few times where hey, you don't have to worry about
what the other team does. You just worry about one
offense versus one defense and one goaltender. So five percent play.
March Madness kicks off tomorrow. Technically there have been games
yesterday and today there will be, but the real March
Madness gets going on Thursday. I will have low volume plays,
So Carm, why am I saying this? If you guys
are jumping involved with my five percent play today, I
encourage you to get a three day or get a
seven day pass, or you can get that hat trick
special three days of NHL. That's the best way to go.
You know, there's one play today for five percent for
five percent play, I also have a three percent play
and tomorrow. Car mentioned it off the top. There are
a ton of games on Thursday that we can make
money in as well. So comment here from Caleb says,
do people wait until goalies confirmed? Yes, Carm and I
wait until goalies are confirmed. But with some of the games,
we're typically a bit more confident in which goalies are
going to be there, so we don't have to worry
about it as much. But that's kind of what I
said before the show, right carm when we're just getting started,
that sometimes you're going to have goalies come from confirm
and sometimes you're not. Right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the only game in which the goalies are for
both teams are confirmed is the Washington Ottawa one. It's
all Mark and Logan Thompson. So those are the two
goalies if you're betting under six and a half, those
are the two goalies that you want in goal. And Andrew,
someone who said that this guy here is on the
ice this morning doing sprints sky Sprints, said the kid
is back on the ice. I love to see it.
We'll see if that makes a difference. Andrew, give us
a winner.
Speaker 1: Love to see it. Plus three sixty plus three sixty
Pittsburgh and Carolina. I told you, guys, I like the over,
So let's get some punt points for this one. Brian
Russ point, Seth Jarvis point and Andre Svechnikov three plus
shots on goal plus three sixty. Not too bad, guys.
Three picks three sixty. I feel like it's a pretty
good number. Two top dogs Jarvis and Rust and of
course Svechnikov is a shooter. That guy has not seen
a shot he doesn't want to take, so you can
get that one at a pretty good price, or you
can get even crazier with the four plus shots on
goal as well with him, he is a good matchup.
Pittsburgh gives up a ton of shots to his position
on a daily basis. So Russ, Sveetchnikov, and Jarvis, those
are the plays for today. And hope you guys all
cashed yesterday with me. Matthew Schaeffer. He got three three
shots on goal and he got an assist, so we
did not get the fourth. Unfortunately the fourth would have
been real nice at plus one seventy five. But we
did still make money with Matthew Schaeffer. And I'll tell you,
carm I was a bit worried yesterday because it seemed
like the whole world liked it. And I know it's
it's you know, it's sometimes you're gonna all be on
the same play, but it's like an NFL Sunday when
the whole world needs this team to cover, you get
a little bit worried. And it seemed like the entire
NHL betting world liked Matthew Shaeffer yesterday, but he got
the job done for us. So today these are our
three guys. Let's make some money.
Speaker 2: Make some money. I love the idea of making money.
Speaker 1: Who hey, why not?
Speaker 2: That's why we're here to make money. We don't always
get it right, but trying to lead you along the
road of how we come up with some of the
decisions that we make hopefully helps and whether you agree
or disagree. If you disagree, you don't play it. If
you agree, you play it. But it's more about the given,
trying to give a little bit of knowledge some of
the sites that we use and some of what what
we used to put all these plays together. Speaking of which, Andrew,
it's about time we brought the pod back. I took
a little break with the pod because I had that
little three day losing streak, and I don't like losing streaks,
but a two day win streak, So let's bring back,
sir pod the pod. And I saw someone asking why
is this line at six? It opened up at five
and a half. It's at six, and I like it.
The Devils are playing a little bit better. The Devils
are scoring goals. Over the last eight games. Devils are
scoring almost four goals per game, three point eighty eight
goals per game. That's a number that if you were
averaging that throughout the NHL season, you would be in
a playoff spot right now. Well, they're only doing it
over the last eight games, but we only need them
to do it over the next or do it tonight.
Jonathan Quick in goal. Quick off a good season last year.
In the season before, he's having a miserable season. He's
like five and fifteen in goal for this New York
Rangers team. Andrew, this is one of those ones where
neither team is going to make the playoffs. A little
bit of stat padding tonight, some goals, I think, and
who knows, maybe even a Rangers home victory, as rare
as they have been. I don't care how it gets there.
I just want over six goals and that is your
pod play.
Speaker 1: Don't care who wins, don't care who scores, Let's get goals.
I like those games.
Speaker 2: I got that T shirt that it is a puck
time t shirt that says, I don't care who wins,
I bet the over. It is funny because sometimes I'll
wear that with some friends when we go to a
sports bar and stuff, and generally the people who are
watching games at the sports bar, they just all love
betting overs and they're like, hey, where'd you get that shirt? Right? So,
you know, the supplier that I had just up and disappeared.
I lost a little bit of money with them. But
I'm trying to find reasonable shirts and some hats that
swag that I can give out during the NHL playoffs,
So I will I will try and get that done.
It is still the same, the same thing. All pod
plays are always two hundred flatbed of two hundred, So
if it's minus one ten, it's two hundred and minus
one ten, which returns about like one ninety or something.
So that is two hundred of the original five thousand
dollars bank roll. So that that is what it is
as far as that goes. Now, a new segment that
we started the other day and one that I like Andrew.
I am putting Andrew on the hot seats with the
make or Miss segment. Andrew, there you go, take it away.
The La Kings minus won sixty five to make the playoffs. Yes, no,
plus one thirty five there on the outside looking in
right now. But my god, look at that schedule and
that looks like a schedule that if Jake Paul was boxing,
he would he would schedule a lot of these for
his to pad his record.
Speaker 1: What do you think I think Jake Paul must be
an owner of the La Kings he set the schedule
up that way. Great, great call by you, KRM on
that one, because sometimes you have to respect the books
and we have to respect what the market is thinking.
Then you ask yourself, Okay, why is this the way
it is? You have a team that is not even
currently sitting in a playoff position minus one sixty five
to make the playoffs. You're gonna have a handful of
people say, wow, that's a great value on the plus
one thirty five, But you have to ask yourself, why
is this number the way it is? And when you've
got Philadelphia, when you've got Calgary, when you've got Vancouver,
and you've got Saint Louis in Nashville, in Toronto, I
mean not even just once or twice some of these teams,
as Titan CT says, in the live chat. It sure
looks easy on paper. Now, not all these games are
gonna be easy, But then the question remains about the
other teams around them. And the other team we're talking
about will be Seattle, it'd be San Jose. Can LA
be better than those teams can be? And my simple
reasoning is is that I don't think Seattle has an
exciting enough team to put goals up on the board
in big moments. There's going to be times where Seattle
needs their key players to find the back of the
net and have some clutch moments. LA. They've dealt with
injuries all year. I feel for Kevin Fiala, but I
think that they're going to punch their ticket to the
postseason this year. This LA Kings team will be in Hey, sure,
am I coming on here and giving out a minus
one sixty five? Yes, But the idea behind this gar
is that hopefully you and I are talking next Wednesday
together and this price is not minus one sixty five anymore.
That's the name of the game, that's the goal here.
I think LA gets in here.
Speaker 2: I like it. Come the end of the season, if
you're finishing off with Seattle, who are likely eliminated at
that point, even though the game is in Seattle, it
is much more a much bigger game for the LA Kings,
and they play well on the road, and then they
go to Vancouver and Calgary, and those are two teams
that could very well Andrew be battling for last place
in the Western Conference and the greatest chance or percentage
wise of winning the draft lottery, and McKenna. So neither
one of those teams is even gonna want to go overtime.
So it's like, if you wanted to circle a couple
of games to play, I would circle the Vancouver and
Calgary games. At the end of the season. If the
LA Kings are right in there and battling for a
playoff spot, those are two that they're going to be favored,
and they're gonna be favored by much bigger prices than
you would normally see. They're going to go into Vancouver
hypothetically they are holding on to the eighth playoff spot,
the eighth spot, the second wild card, by a point
or two over anybody. They go into Vancouver, they are
going to be about minus one ninety. They go into Calgary,
they are going to be about minus one eighty during
the regular season, those numbers would be about minus one
forty minus one forty five in both instances. So they're
going to make the book makers are going to make
you pay for it because they know they're not stupid.
They don't build these hotels in Vegas with their own money.
They build it with ours, yes, and the slot players money.
So that's the way I look at it as far
as far as that goes. But you know, a couple
of games against Calgary that they have Saint Louis, We'll
see what Saint Louis and Nashville do. They're kind of
hanging in there and stuff. But you get to play
Vancouver twice as well too, you play Nashville twice, you
play the Toronto Maple Leafs. Come on, man, the Toronto
Maple Leafs. Andrew I have we're running late, but I
have a bottle of champagne that I keep on nice
every year. For the official elimination day of the Toronto
Maple Leiefs, I was on vacation and I had them
bring one to my room and as the game ended
and at least were eliminated, I filmed the video posted
it on Twitter for all of my Lee friends popped
the champagne for the official elimination of the Toronto Maple.
Speaker 1: Oh I remember that. I remember that now I saw
that video. Yes, I remember, Yes, you got your you
got your dam damn Bianco.
Speaker 2: You troll. Okay, listen, that is great, guys. I hope
we gave you, guys a lot of knowledge. I have
a play up in the Champions League today, goes at.
I have one play a four percent best bet in
the NHL. Last night's was the Tampa Bay Lightning in regulation.
They wanted six to two, so three to o this week,
hoping to make it four No, heading into a couple
of big games on tomorrow's card. But Andrew, you have
a five percent play. Tell us again and then close
up the show.
Speaker 1: Yeah, five percent, big bet. Love this slate overall, two
plays for me so far in the NHL. Again, guys,
you know I love the team totals. Worry about one team.
One team only to get to their number. Will bet
against a poor defense and a goaltender. I think that
will not have a good night. Get that at W
two dot buzz slash am or you get six days
for the price of three. The next six days you're
gonna get hockey, you're gonna get basketball, you're gonna get baseball.
You're gonna get all kinds of stuff for me at
wager talk dot com. That will do it for the show.
Say hi to Andy and Dan for us guys, because
they're live in seven and a half minutes. All the best.
We'll see you guys next time.