WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.280 --> 00:00:03.480 Elon, thanks so much for being here today. As you know, 2 00:00:03.560 --> 00:00:08.199 and many people in the audience know, we're reprising a 3 00:00:08.240 --> 00:00:12.679 fireless fireside chat that we did at Air Force Space 4 00:00:12.720 --> 00:00:18.039 Pitch Day back in November. I ran into General Goldfeend, 5 00:00:18.079 --> 00:00:19.760 the Chief of Staff of the United States Air Force, 6 00:00:19.800 --> 00:00:22.839 this morning, and maybe I was being a little bit 7 00:00:22.879 --> 00:00:26.480 too confident, but I said, hey, I think that we 8 00:00:26.559 --> 00:00:29.519 did such a good job together at Space Pitch Day 9 00:00:30.120 --> 00:00:33.520 that Elon and I got invited back for a much 10 00:00:33.560 --> 00:00:37.560 bigger audience, higher stakes and everything like that. And General 11 00:00:37.600 --> 00:00:40.679 Goldfeind looked at me and went, no, JT. You guys 12 00:00:40.719 --> 00:00:42.399 are going to do it until you get it right. 13 00:00:43.600 --> 00:00:47.640 So we're going to talk a little bit today about innovation. 14 00:00:48.840 --> 00:00:53.719 For those of you in the audience that nothing that 15 00:00:53.920 --> 00:00:59.000 was introduced about Elon made it to the prefrontal cortex, 16 00:00:59.039 --> 00:01:00.880 and you're like, I still don't know who this guy is. 17 00:01:02.280 --> 00:01:05.920 You may remember him from a movie role in Iron 18 00:01:05.920 --> 00:01:10.719 Man two or the TV show The Big Bang Theory. 19 00:01:11.879 --> 00:01:13.640 You may remember him if you're. 20 00:01:13.519 --> 00:01:15.359 Old like me, when you used to have to do 21 00:01:15.519 --> 00:01:21.319 dial in modems, you may remember how PayPal actually worked 22 00:01:21.439 --> 00:01:26.120 over a dial in modem. And if just In case 23 00:01:26.159 --> 00:01:29.120 you've had your head in the sand for the last decade, 24 00:01:29.560 --> 00:01:30.840 you absolutely have. 25 00:01:30.799 --> 00:01:31.280 To know him. 26 00:01:31.319 --> 00:01:35.400 For Space Exploration Technologies SpaceX, a tremendous partner of the 27 00:01:35.480 --> 00:01:38.879 United States Air Force in the space business. 28 00:01:39.959 --> 00:01:40.840 And for Tesla. 29 00:01:41.719 --> 00:01:48.840 So for just for grins, this fastest growing auto company 30 00:01:49.200 --> 00:01:53.959 on the planet, most amazing capability. And when Elon pulled up, 31 00:01:54.239 --> 00:01:57.760 he pulled up, he and his entourage in three different 32 00:01:57.799 --> 00:01:58.840 Tesla's this morning. 33 00:01:59.480 --> 00:02:02.840 How many Tesla owners do we have in the audience? 34 00:02:04.000 --> 00:02:08.639 Stand up? Stand up if you're a Tesl owner? All right, 35 00:02:10.479 --> 00:02:18.479 very nice. So Elon, you and I have talked about 36 00:02:18.479 --> 00:02:23.639 whether the Air Force is the most innovative service the 37 00:02:23.680 --> 00:02:25.719 Department of the Air Force now and the last time 38 00:02:25.719 --> 00:02:26.719 we interviewed it was. 39 00:02:26.680 --> 00:02:27.719 It was just the Air Force. 40 00:02:27.759 --> 00:02:29.599 Now we're the Air Force and the Space Force as 41 00:02:29.639 --> 00:02:31.560 part of the Department of the Air Force. Most of 42 00:02:31.560 --> 00:02:33.759 those people who stood up were in the front row. 43 00:02:33.800 --> 00:02:36.199 We have a lot of first adopters here in the 44 00:02:36.199 --> 00:02:38.560 front of the audience apparently, or maybe those. 45 00:02:38.400 --> 00:02:40.599 Are the folks that just make the most money. Who knows. 46 00:02:41.439 --> 00:02:48.719 Okay, So again, today's today's discussion is about innovation and 47 00:02:49.199 --> 00:02:51.639 how we can make the Department of the Air Force, 48 00:02:52.159 --> 00:02:56.599 the most innovative department within the Department of Defense and 49 00:02:56.960 --> 00:02:59.000 perhaps across the United States government. 50 00:02:59.599 --> 00:03:01.120 So elon question number one. 51 00:03:02.800 --> 00:03:07.439 When you put a weapon system or a product into 52 00:03:07.639 --> 00:03:12.680 production and you start delivering it to your customers, very 53 00:03:12.759 --> 00:03:17.240 very frequently, there is a pushback within the production organization 54 00:03:17.840 --> 00:03:22.639 that you know, we don't want to change that product 55 00:03:22.639 --> 00:03:23.159 too much. 56 00:03:23.599 --> 00:03:24.560 It's successful. 57 00:03:24.800 --> 00:03:27.400 We have a lot of legacy systems that we're responsible 58 00:03:27.479 --> 00:03:30.159 for in the Department of the Air Force. There is 59 00:03:30.199 --> 00:03:36.680 a lot of reticence at times to incrementally improve or 60 00:03:36.759 --> 00:03:40.599 add new capabilities to those systems. From the context of 61 00:03:40.680 --> 00:03:47.080 Tesla and SpaceX, how do you motivate your workforce, how 62 00:03:47.120 --> 00:03:50.759 do you work with your customers, how do you work 63 00:03:50.800 --> 00:03:57.120 with technologists in your ecosystems, your various ecosystems to try 64 00:03:57.159 --> 00:04:01.759 and make sure that products don't become stagnant and they 65 00:04:01.840 --> 00:04:05.159 continue to incrementally improve over time. 66 00:04:06.400 --> 00:04:08.719 Sure, well, first of all, thanks for having me here. 67 00:04:08.800 --> 00:04:11.080 It's an honor to be here with you and with 68 00:04:11.080 --> 00:04:19.160 with everyone else from the Space Slash Air Force, and 69 00:04:20.839 --> 00:04:23.000 obviously had long relationship with the Air Force and very 70 00:04:23.079 --> 00:04:24.959 much appreciate the support of the years. So I just 71 00:04:24.959 --> 00:04:29.040 want to make sure to say that and look forward 72 00:04:29.040 --> 00:04:31.319 to doing a lot of interesting things in the future. 73 00:04:33.800 --> 00:04:37.519 I think it's actually it's cool that that there is 74 00:04:38.639 --> 00:04:42.560 that the creation of the space forces is happening. I 75 00:04:42.560 --> 00:04:45.879 think there's you know, it makes sense that there's a 76 00:04:47.439 --> 00:04:51.480 major branch for every domain, you know, with that and 77 00:04:51.680 --> 00:04:56.319 and so the domain of space the domain of error 78 00:04:56.319 --> 00:05:01.800 are both important. But I think space space is is 79 00:05:01.959 --> 00:05:08.800 certainly a medium of its own, and I think there's 80 00:05:09.240 --> 00:05:13.399 some very exciting things that are possible. If I may 81 00:05:13.399 --> 00:05:17.519 just say it, like what, you know, what the public wants? 82 00:05:17.560 --> 00:05:20.800 I think, and direction pretty confident that the public doesn't want. 83 00:05:20.800 --> 00:05:24.439 This is a starfleet academy, you know, like. 84 00:05:26.360 --> 00:05:28.480 Yeah, like how do we make start, how do we 85 00:05:28.480 --> 00:05:32.480 make star Trek real? You know, that'd be pretty amazing. 86 00:05:32.959 --> 00:05:39.120 I would love that, you know, And so I think, like, 87 00:05:39.160 --> 00:05:42.759 the fastest we can make sort of star fleet reel, 88 00:05:43.000 --> 00:05:44.720 then let's try to do that. 89 00:05:47.079 --> 00:05:47.279 Well. 90 00:05:47.319 --> 00:05:50.519 So elon speaking speaking. 91 00:05:50.199 --> 00:05:53.519 For the United States Space Force, there already is a 92 00:05:53.519 --> 00:05:56.360 starfleet academy. It's the United States Air Force Academy in 93 00:05:56.399 --> 00:05:57.680 Colorado Springs, Colorado. 94 00:06:00.240 --> 00:06:00.439 Yep. 95 00:06:00.480 --> 00:06:03.879 But I've been there, I've given a talk, and you know, 96 00:06:04.399 --> 00:06:07.759 the first launch of Falcon one, we had a Falcon 97 00:06:07.839 --> 00:06:09.879 SAT from the Air Force Academy. 98 00:06:10.839 --> 00:06:11.879 That rocket blew up. 99 00:06:12.240 --> 00:06:17.199 But but but but then the funny thing is that 100 00:06:17.399 --> 00:06:20.560 it blew up like he's this truth of strange than fiction. 101 00:06:21.839 --> 00:06:23.839 The the satellite. 102 00:06:25.439 --> 00:06:29.959 Was shot through the firing, walked through the air a 103 00:06:30.000 --> 00:06:32.879 couple hundred meters, and then plunged through the roof of 104 00:06:32.879 --> 00:06:35.720 a tool shed, uh and then landed on the floor 105 00:06:37.120 --> 00:06:39.720 and was actually in reasonably good shape, I mean for 106 00:06:40.000 --> 00:06:43.319 crashing through the ceiling. But you know, you're like recognizable, 107 00:06:43.639 --> 00:06:46.800 you know, And and we gave we get to give 108 00:06:46.839 --> 00:06:49.240 it back and so we've not lost one of your satellites. 109 00:06:51.480 --> 00:06:56.720 So so from a SpaceX perspective, a partial mission success. 110 00:06:56.720 --> 00:06:59.439 It's like, well it's it's not lost. I'm just saying. 111 00:07:00.680 --> 00:07:02.839 It's a little the worse for there's a little bit 112 00:07:02.920 --> 00:07:06.759 worse for were of it, you know, but material. But 113 00:07:06.800 --> 00:07:10.160 then we subsequently launched future Falcons that's the actual orbit 114 00:07:10.800 --> 00:07:17.040 that was great. So so so I think I think 115 00:07:17.040 --> 00:07:20.800 there's I think we can go a long way towards 116 00:07:20.800 --> 00:07:23.680 making star Fleet reel and making. 117 00:07:23.839 --> 00:07:25.480 These uh sort of. 118 00:07:27.560 --> 00:07:32.639 Utopian or semi semi utopian future is real, but it 119 00:07:32.720 --> 00:07:39.040 will definitely require radical innovation. One can't get there by 120 00:07:39.720 --> 00:07:48.319 incrementally innovating expendable boosters. There's just no way. So the 121 00:07:48.439 --> 00:07:53.839 I think we need to push for radical breakthroughs. And 122 00:07:53.879 --> 00:07:56.160 if you don't push for radical breakthroughs, you're not going 123 00:07:56.199 --> 00:08:01.240 to get radical outcomes. And that that does mean taking risks, 124 00:08:03.079 --> 00:08:07.279 and common sense that the if you take a big 125 00:08:07.360 --> 00:08:09.920 risk in order to have a bigger reward, there must 126 00:08:09.959 --> 00:08:12.920 be a big risk. It's most of the time you 127 00:08:12.920 --> 00:08:17.240 cannot find bigger reward for small risk. That's those are rare, 128 00:08:18.639 --> 00:08:20.800 so you're going to have some proportionality of the risk 129 00:08:20.839 --> 00:08:25.600 and reward. But if if the goal is important enough, 130 00:08:26.959 --> 00:08:31.240 and I think increasingly the goal is important for for 131 00:08:31.319 --> 00:08:39.440 many reasons, the goal of having the best technology in space, 132 00:08:41.639 --> 00:08:44.279 that that is I think going to become increasingly important, 133 00:08:44.360 --> 00:08:47.519 and it'll be increasingly increasingly important for the United States 134 00:08:47.519 --> 00:08:51.559 to use what I think is its greatest attribute, which 135 00:08:51.720 --> 00:09:00.080 is invention and innovation two to create space technology that 136 00:09:00.240 --> 00:09:05.080 is the best in the world. And in fact, I 137 00:09:05.080 --> 00:09:09.039 think if the United States does not use breakthrough innovation, 138 00:09:10.120 --> 00:09:15.200 it will fulbind. Yeah, so I think this is that 139 00:09:15.600 --> 00:09:18.799 this is not something that was a risk in times past, 140 00:09:18.840 --> 00:09:20.159 but I think is a risk now. 141 00:09:20.559 --> 00:09:22.840 Okay, so. 142 00:09:24.759 --> 00:09:31.080 Yeah, do you characterize that risk in terms of pure 143 00:09:31.240 --> 00:09:34.399 adversary competition around the planet? 144 00:09:35.039 --> 00:09:36.039 Are you are you? 145 00:09:37.679 --> 00:09:42.200 Are you suggesting that it's our adversaries that require us 146 00:09:42.240 --> 00:09:46.159 to be that those radical innovators or is it just 147 00:09:46.639 --> 00:09:49.720 we can't become complacent and stay. 148 00:09:51.080 --> 00:09:53.039 Incrementally improving our systems. 149 00:09:53.080 --> 00:09:56.320 We must take those giant leaps forward as a nation 150 00:09:56.440 --> 00:09:57.720 regardless of the competition. 151 00:10:00.080 --> 00:10:03.080 I think there's there's little I have zero doubt that 152 00:10:03.159 --> 00:10:06.480 if the United States does not take does not seek 153 00:10:06.519 --> 00:10:09.639 great innovations in space, it will be second in space 154 00:10:11.480 --> 00:10:15.000 with as sure as nightfall is day. So it is 155 00:10:15.039 --> 00:10:21.879 a big deal. But this, this, this is a I 156 00:10:21.919 --> 00:10:24.440 mean a very innovative that you know, there's no country 157 00:10:24.480 --> 00:10:27.559 more innovative an eventive than the United States. 158 00:10:27.960 --> 00:10:31.600 So it's just important to use that attributes. That's that's 159 00:10:31.600 --> 00:10:32.960 the ace card. Okay. 160 00:10:33.360 --> 00:10:36.519 Yeah, And since so since it seems like we're going 161 00:10:36.519 --> 00:10:40.480 down the geopolitical path here on the on the questions, 162 00:10:41.000 --> 00:10:44.799 how does the United States as a nation maintain that 163 00:10:44.879 --> 00:10:52.559 innovative edge, that that ability to invest in things and 164 00:10:52.639 --> 00:10:59.200 take those risks. What kind of of governmental policies or 165 00:10:59.679 --> 00:11:02.759 process as do we have to encourage the right kinds 166 00:11:02.759 --> 00:11:04.120 of behavior In your view. 167 00:11:05.240 --> 00:11:11.840 Well, I think having outcome based procurement is actually very important. 168 00:11:13.159 --> 00:11:15.320 So you say, like, this is the outcome that is sought, 169 00:11:16.279 --> 00:11:20.480 and whoever can achieve this outcome or achieve this outcome 170 00:11:20.519 --> 00:11:24.720 to a greater degree that that company will that that's 171 00:11:24.759 --> 00:11:27.600 who the Air Force will do business with and will 172 00:11:27.679 --> 00:11:31.919 procure the thing that is that is radically innovative as 173 00:11:32.000 --> 00:11:39.879 measured by what is important for leadership in space. So 174 00:11:42.600 --> 00:11:45.399 I mean, I do think it's it's absolutely fundamental to 175 00:11:45.480 --> 00:11:48.600 achieve full reusability in access to space. 176 00:11:49.039 --> 00:11:51.679 This is this is the holy grail of space. 177 00:11:52.919 --> 00:11:55.480 At the point of which you have full reusability for 178 00:11:56.159 --> 00:12:03.279 orbital rockets, then you have a profound advantage over anyone 179 00:12:03.320 --> 00:12:08.559 else's profound. It would be like if in the Air Force, 180 00:12:08.720 --> 00:12:11.159 if if you if you had planes that could be 181 00:12:11.240 --> 00:12:14.879 used once and or if you if you had if 182 00:12:14.879 --> 00:12:17.000 you had multi use planes that can be flown over 183 00:12:17.000 --> 00:12:21.519 and over again like normal, and all your adversaries had 184 00:12:21.519 --> 00:12:26.480 single use planes, that would be no contest. It's the 185 00:12:26.480 --> 00:12:30.559 same thing as space. Okay, Yeah, this is extremely fundamental. 186 00:12:35.960 --> 00:12:41.240 So the the cost of a propellant is typically on 187 00:12:41.279 --> 00:12:47.039 the order of one of the cost of the of 188 00:12:47.159 --> 00:12:52.679 the vehicle or less. So if you have a vehicle 189 00:12:52.720 --> 00:12:58.840 that is say locks kerosene like Falcon I or something 190 00:12:58.879 --> 00:13:06.200 like that, it's the oxygen and the fuel are yeah, 191 00:13:06.600 --> 00:13:10.559 maybe half million dollars or something like that. But then 192 00:13:10.600 --> 00:13:14.080 depending upon the mission, the mission price can be anywhere 193 00:13:14.120 --> 00:13:19.600 from like sixty to one hundred million dollars. So no, 194 00:13:19.960 --> 00:13:22.360 Falcon nine is a partially reusable vehicle, but not fully. 195 00:13:23.519 --> 00:13:28.600 The vehicle we're working on right now, quite difficult, is 196 00:13:29.080 --> 00:13:39.000 a starship, and yeah, that has the potential for full reusability, 197 00:13:39.240 --> 00:13:41.919 but I think it would be great to have other 198 00:13:41.960 --> 00:13:44.399 companies as well that are doing full reusability. I think 199 00:13:44.559 --> 00:13:49.639 competition is a good thing. It may seem at times that, 200 00:13:50.360 --> 00:13:56.120 you know, shouldn't we focus all our efforts on one 201 00:13:56.600 --> 00:13:58.720 system and brought. 202 00:13:58.639 --> 00:14:00.960 Rather than divide them and have two. 203 00:14:00.879 --> 00:14:07.279 Competing systems, like, you know, not to cause controversy, but 204 00:14:07.480 --> 00:14:12.600 like in my opinion, like Joint Strike Fighter, should this 205 00:14:12.639 --> 00:14:17.039 should be a competitor to JS that that's uh as 206 00:14:17.039 --> 00:14:22.360 a controversial subject, but you know, I think it's it's 207 00:14:22.440 --> 00:14:26.919 not it's not good to have one one provider. It's 208 00:14:26.960 --> 00:14:30.080 good to have competition where that competition is meaningful and 209 00:14:30.200 --> 00:14:31.399 somebody can actually lose. 210 00:14:31.519 --> 00:14:34.799 That's like you know, so then then. 211 00:14:38.279 --> 00:14:47.759 So yeah, okay, yeah, So in radical innovation, obviously the 212 00:14:47.799 --> 00:14:52.480 workforce is a really key component of that. I mean, 213 00:14:52.799 --> 00:14:56.159 as I mean during your PayPal days, you were actually 214 00:14:56.200 --> 00:15:00.879 doing coding, right, But in SpaceX and Tesla they are 215 00:15:01.159 --> 00:15:05.600 so large that Elon can't do everything. What sort of 216 00:15:05.639 --> 00:15:09.120 things do you think about in terms of motivating a 217 00:15:09.200 --> 00:15:13.840 workforce like we have in the Department of the Air Force, 218 00:15:14.399 --> 00:15:19.320 that will help them become more radically innovative. What sort 219 00:15:19.320 --> 00:15:21.559 of things do you look for in people or in 220 00:15:21.679 --> 00:15:23.840 processes that make the workforce better? 221 00:15:25.600 --> 00:15:25.879 Sure? 222 00:15:26.080 --> 00:15:29.840 Well, I think the massive thing that can be done 223 00:15:29.960 --> 00:15:32.559 is to make sure your incentive structure is such that 224 00:15:33.720 --> 00:15:37.240 innovation is rewarded and lack of innovation is punished. They've 225 00:15:37.240 --> 00:15:42.399 got to be a characteristic So if somebody is innovating 226 00:15:43.840 --> 00:15:49.519 and making good progress, then they should be promoted sooner. 227 00:15:50.600 --> 00:15:54.320 And if somebody is completely failing to innovate. Not every 228 00:15:54.399 --> 00:15:58.200 role requires innovation, but if they're in a role where 229 00:15:58.320 --> 00:16:02.399 innovation is should be happening, and it's not happening, then 230 00:16:02.440 --> 00:16:06.399 they should either not be promoted or exited. And let 231 00:16:06.399 --> 00:16:08.360 me tell you, you'll get promote, you'll get you, you'll 232 00:16:08.600 --> 00:16:09.720 get innovation real fast. 233 00:16:10.320 --> 00:16:13.279 Okay, let's stick. Yeah, it's like how much do you want? 234 00:16:13.759 --> 00:16:18.840 H So? 235 00:16:18.919 --> 00:16:22.799 Does that does that carrot and stick approach help? Do 236 00:16:22.879 --> 00:16:30.200 you think people be more risk averse or less risk averse? 237 00:16:32.679 --> 00:16:32.960 Well? 238 00:16:33.320 --> 00:16:37.480 Poor when you when when trying different things, you've got 239 00:16:37.480 --> 00:16:40.759 to have some acceptance of failure. As you're alluding to earlier, 240 00:16:41.000 --> 00:16:43.440 failure must be an option. If failure is not an option, 241 00:16:43.480 --> 00:16:47.639 it's going to result in extremely conservative choices and you 242 00:16:47.720 --> 00:16:50.759 may not may get something even worse than lack of innovation. 243 00:16:50.879 --> 00:16:58.639 Things may go backwards. So, if what you really want is. 244 00:17:00.039 --> 00:17:06.920 A risk risk, you wann't reward and punishment to be 245 00:17:07.000 --> 00:17:12.240 proportionate to the actions that you seek. So if if 246 00:17:12.240 --> 00:17:16.079 what you're seeking is innovation, then should reward success and 247 00:17:16.160 --> 00:17:24.119 innovation and only there should be minor consequences for lack 248 00:17:24.200 --> 00:17:26.400 of minor consequences for for. 249 00:17:26.440 --> 00:17:29.559 Trying and failing. Should that there should be minor. 250 00:17:31.240 --> 00:17:36.960 Significant rewards for trying and succeeding, minor consequences for trying 251 00:17:37.039 --> 00:17:42.359 and not succeeding, and big and and major negative consequences 252 00:17:42.440 --> 00:17:43.359 for not trying. 253 00:17:44.400 --> 00:17:45.319 Okay, So. 254 00:17:46.799 --> 00:17:49.680 If you have that incentive structure, you will get innovation 255 00:17:50.279 --> 00:17:51.000 like you can't believe. 256 00:17:51.519 --> 00:17:57.559 Okay, So you've you've talked at Tesla's shareholder meetings and 257 00:17:57.599 --> 00:18:02.960 in various interviews that you consider the machine that builds 258 00:18:03.000 --> 00:18:07.359 the machine to be just as important, if not more important, 259 00:18:07.359 --> 00:18:08.359 than the machine itself. 260 00:18:08.440 --> 00:18:08.640 Yeah. 261 00:18:08.880 --> 00:18:13.519 So we talked about the workforce aspects. Are there processes 262 00:18:13.599 --> 00:18:16.000 that you use within your company that are parts of 263 00:18:16.039 --> 00:18:20.680 that machine that you think are particularly valuable for innovative 264 00:18:20.960 --> 00:18:24.039 radical change? 265 00:18:25.279 --> 00:18:26.839 Well, what I mean by the machine that builds the 266 00:18:26.880 --> 00:18:34.039 machine is that the production Designing the production system of 267 00:18:34.240 --> 00:18:39.519 a new product is I think at least an order 268 00:18:39.519 --> 00:18:44.440 of magnitude or too ards magnitude hotter than designing the 269 00:18:44.480 --> 00:18:45.400 initial prototype. 270 00:18:45.480 --> 00:18:47.519 Yeah. 271 00:18:48.920 --> 00:18:52.119 I think like in America, there's been less, less of 272 00:18:52.160 --> 00:18:58.119 a less importance in modern times placed on manufacturing, and 273 00:18:58.160 --> 00:19:03.440 I think this is a mistake, Like at this point, 274 00:19:04.559 --> 00:19:07.000 really classify And in fact I sent an email to 275 00:19:07.160 --> 00:19:10.000 the to SpaceX just saying this, like, at this point, 276 00:19:10.079 --> 00:19:13.519 I think designing a rocket is trivial, just trivial, there's 277 00:19:13.559 --> 00:19:16.440 like tons of books that will you read them? You know, 278 00:19:17.200 --> 00:19:20.480 you can understand equations. You can design a rocket. It's 279 00:19:20.640 --> 00:19:26.720 really really easy. Yeah, if you say like two stage 280 00:19:27.720 --> 00:19:29.759 two and two percent of your lift off master orbit 281 00:19:31.920 --> 00:19:37.599 from it just to design something like that piece case. Uh, 282 00:19:37.880 --> 00:19:40.640 Now I say you want to go into production with that, 283 00:19:40.960 --> 00:19:42.960 or if you want you want to actually make Let's say, 284 00:19:43.039 --> 00:19:44.599 the next step is you want to make even one 285 00:19:44.640 --> 00:19:47.039 of those things. Okay, Now, making even one of those 286 00:19:47.079 --> 00:19:51.599 things and getting it to orbit is hard, but the 287 00:19:51.599 --> 00:19:54.359 designing of it is not hard. The making of it 288 00:19:54.400 --> 00:19:57.400 is even one is hard. The making of a production 289 00:19:57.519 --> 00:20:01.000 line that builds and launches many is a extremely hard. 290 00:20:02.319 --> 00:20:07.440 And then the next level beyond that would be, uh, 291 00:20:07.559 --> 00:20:11.960 are creating a fully reusable system and having that be 292 00:20:12.200 --> 00:20:16.799 in volume production and volume launch. That's the that's super 293 00:20:16.880 --> 00:20:19.400 super hard. 294 00:20:19.960 --> 00:20:21.759 So that's so yeah. 295 00:20:21.799 --> 00:20:23.839 But but by building the machine and bolt machine, I mean, 296 00:20:23.960 --> 00:20:30.720 I mean creating the production system, and I keep emphasizing 297 00:20:30.799 --> 00:20:36.119 to SpaceX, the hard part is making it and making 298 00:20:36.160 --> 00:20:41.519 lots of them and launching frequently, because reuse must not 299 00:20:41.680 --> 00:20:45.200 just be it can't be reused like the shuttle. It's 300 00:20:45.200 --> 00:20:49.039 got to be rapid and complete reuse. So the shuttle 301 00:20:49.119 --> 00:20:52.880 was a case where the reuse was very slow and 302 00:20:52.960 --> 00:20:57.279 it was not complete. The main tag was lost every time, 303 00:20:58.480 --> 00:21:05.000 and ref the shuttle between flights was extremely expensive. It's 304 00:21:05.039 --> 00:21:07.720 not even clear whether it was worth recovering the booster 305 00:21:07.759 --> 00:21:13.519 shells from the ocean. So so just like an aircraft, 306 00:21:14.279 --> 00:21:18.640 the rocket must be rapidly and completely reasonable, and then 307 00:21:18.680 --> 00:21:24.720 you need lots of them. And then I've been sort 308 00:21:24.720 --> 00:21:27.519 of just doing back, kind of back of the envelope 309 00:21:27.519 --> 00:21:31.480 of what's needed to establish a self sustaining city on Mars. 310 00:21:32.119 --> 00:21:35.920 And these are like big numbers, but like you. 311 00:21:35.920 --> 00:21:39.079 Need on the order of a million tons to the 312 00:21:39.119 --> 00:21:44.400 surface of Mars useful payload something like that, because we 313 00:21:44.440 --> 00:21:47.440 sit on the top of a massive base of infrastructure, 314 00:21:47.599 --> 00:21:51.640 or you know, the economy is you think of all 315 00:21:51.640 --> 00:21:54.160 the things that are mined and then refined and then 316 00:21:54.279 --> 00:21:57.319 and then the many steps in the refinement, and in 317 00:21:57.440 --> 00:22:00.400 order to produce like your phone or your host or 318 00:22:00.480 --> 00:22:04.480 even there's there's a vast base of industry that was 319 00:22:04.519 --> 00:22:09.519 required to produce even a simple household item. It's very difficult. 320 00:22:10.400 --> 00:22:18.200 So so you've got to recreate that on Mars, some 321 00:22:18.319 --> 00:22:23.160 million tons on Mars means we're just talking to orders 322 00:22:23.160 --> 00:22:25.759 of magnitude here, and hopefully it's not ten million tons, 323 00:22:26.200 --> 00:22:29.160 and hopefully maybe it's less than a million tons, but 324 00:22:29.599 --> 00:22:34.119 probably not one hundred thousand tons. So that that means 325 00:22:34.160 --> 00:22:40.160 you need to get about about five million tons to 326 00:22:41.599 --> 00:22:46.240 Earth orbit of useful failureed. So you're talking in like 327 00:22:46.279 --> 00:22:49.200 the like. So essentially, unless you have a launch system 328 00:22:49.640 --> 00:22:53.920 that is somewhere in the mega ton per year range 329 00:22:54.480 --> 00:22:57.799 to orbit, it's not it's not relevant. 330 00:22:58.200 --> 00:23:00.640 Okay. Yeah, So. 331 00:23:02.079 --> 00:23:08.359 Starlink, as you're scaling to build more and more Starlink 332 00:23:08.400 --> 00:23:11.920 satellites to go on more and more reusable rockets, what 333 00:23:12.000 --> 00:23:14.519 are some of the challenges you've had to overcome in 334 00:23:14.599 --> 00:23:19.119 Starlink production so that you can perfect that machine, machine 335 00:23:19.119 --> 00:23:20.279 that builds the machine. 336 00:23:22.079 --> 00:23:26.920 Yeah, stalling production is going well. Actually, the that's the 337 00:23:28.480 --> 00:23:31.400 that was a hard that's a hard thing to get right. 338 00:23:33.680 --> 00:23:38.240 We made many we had many iterations on the stalling prototypes, 339 00:23:39.119 --> 00:23:41.599 and then, as I said, the building the stalling production 340 00:23:41.680 --> 00:23:45.680 line was I don't know thousand percent harder than designing 341 00:23:45.680 --> 00:23:46.680 the satellite to begin with. 342 00:23:48.000 --> 00:23:50.359 But but it is important to have like a. 343 00:23:54.079 --> 00:23:57.279 To design full manufacturing and have a tight feedback loop 344 00:23:57.319 --> 00:24:00.720 between the design of the object and may acturing system, 345 00:24:01.119 --> 00:24:04.200 so as when people when when you design the object 346 00:24:04.240 --> 00:24:06.720 at first, you you don't realize all the parts that 347 00:24:06.759 --> 00:24:11.799 are really difficult to manufacture. Uh, And so having the 348 00:24:11.839 --> 00:24:15.559 manufacturing system and the design bring those up at the 349 00:24:15.599 --> 00:24:18.680 same time, so that you're actually in the beginning making 350 00:24:18.720 --> 00:24:20.880 a thing that you know is wrong, but you're actually 351 00:24:20.880 --> 00:24:22.400 figuring out what's hard to manufacture. 352 00:24:22.920 --> 00:24:25.039 That's the real problem. 353 00:24:25.319 --> 00:24:30.680 So we brought up the Starlink production line before we 354 00:24:31.079 --> 00:24:34.000 actually had the design finalized, which which is actually the 355 00:24:34.079 --> 00:24:36.359 right thing to do. And then we discover, oh, there's 356 00:24:36.599 --> 00:24:39.200 all there's all these things that in the design that 357 00:24:39.200 --> 00:24:42.279 are very difficult to make, and so therefore we must 358 00:24:42.319 --> 00:24:49.119 change the design, and the satellite ended up having the 359 00:24:49.119 --> 00:24:54.680 same capability, but just was very easy to make and launch, 360 00:24:55.440 --> 00:24:57.359 So say, very easy. 361 00:24:57.359 --> 00:24:59.359 It's sort of. 362 00:24:59.319 --> 00:25:04.400 Hard, but but but but it's being done, and we're 363 00:25:05.519 --> 00:25:08.680 the satellites are being produced at a rate now faster 364 00:25:08.720 --> 00:25:12.880 than we can order them. So and and the cost 365 00:25:12.880 --> 00:25:16.599 of the satellite has dropped below the cost of transporting 366 00:25:16.640 --> 00:25:21.480 it to orbit, even when taking the Falcon nine in 367 00:25:21.519 --> 00:25:24.039 the most reused configuration, which is to get the booster 368 00:25:24.119 --> 00:25:28.640 back and you get the fairings back. The cost of 369 00:25:28.720 --> 00:25:33.160 the of transporting the satellite to orbit exceeds the cost 370 00:25:33.200 --> 00:25:35.920 of the satellite. So the satellite is in a good, 371 00:25:35.960 --> 00:25:39.119 good situation, and the cost that satellite will keep coming 372 00:25:39.160 --> 00:25:42.400 down as we ramp up rates and make design improvements. 373 00:25:43.319 --> 00:25:48.119 But so we really need Starship to carry Starlink in 374 00:25:48.240 --> 00:25:53.880 order to get the total delivered cost to orbit to 375 00:25:54.000 --> 00:25:56.559 be much better than it is today. 376 00:25:56.720 --> 00:25:59.799 Still pretty good. 377 00:25:59.680 --> 00:26:04.000 When you when you so in terms of deciding what 378 00:26:04.160 --> 00:26:08.359 to build, you can take feedback from customers and let 379 00:26:08.400 --> 00:26:11.720 customers pull to you what they want, or you can 380 00:26:12.240 --> 00:26:15.480 be radically innovative within your company, or you know a 381 00:26:15.519 --> 00:26:18.680 small set of individuals and develop something and push it 382 00:26:18.759 --> 00:26:22.799 into the industrial base. So customer poll would be Tesla 383 00:26:23.799 --> 00:26:30.319 Tesla owners wanting new features on the existing fleet. Push 384 00:26:30.400 --> 00:26:33.799 would be you know, a company push would be something 385 00:26:33.920 --> 00:26:37.839 like when Apple pushed the iPad to everybody and nobody 386 00:26:37.920 --> 00:26:39.880 knew what an iPad was until they touched it and 387 00:26:39.920 --> 00:26:43.519 went wow, and everybody wants an iPad. Now, what do 388 00:26:43.559 --> 00:26:46.559 you all think about in terms of that balance between 389 00:26:47.359 --> 00:26:50.000 customer poll and company push. 390 00:26:50.680 --> 00:26:52.680 Well, in the beginning nobody wanted a Tesla. 391 00:26:53.000 --> 00:26:59.359 Let can tell you that that made the original sort 392 00:26:59.359 --> 00:27:00.480 of roasters car. 393 00:27:01.200 --> 00:27:01.480 Uh. 394 00:27:01.880 --> 00:27:03.640 People were like, why would I want an electric car? 395 00:27:03.680 --> 00:27:08.519 That's my casting car works fine, Like, no electric car 396 00:27:08.559 --> 00:27:08.799 is better? 397 00:27:08.799 --> 00:27:09.400 I should try it. 398 00:27:11.960 --> 00:27:14.240 And it was hard, you know, hard to get people 399 00:27:14.279 --> 00:27:17.920 to do a test drive first. Nobody knew who we were. 400 00:27:18.519 --> 00:27:20.960 Heard of this company and like, yeah, we're named after 401 00:27:21.039 --> 00:27:28.880