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<v Speaker 1>Hello, and welcome to India. Today's special coverage from Davos

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<v Speaker 1>at the World Economic Forum. It's day four now. Many

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<v Speaker 1>years ago, a British prime minister said a week is

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<v Speaker 1>a long time in politics. He's perhaps wrong, because in

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<v Speaker 1>the age in which we live, that Trumpian era, even

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<v Speaker 1>twenty four hours can be a very long time. Just

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<v Speaker 1>about twenty four hours ago, the US President launched an

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<v Speaker 1>extraordinary attack on his European allies, describing them, many of

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<v Speaker 1>them as stupid. A few hours later, though, on truth

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<v Speaker 1>social Donald Trump said that he wasn't imposing tariffs on Europe,

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<v Speaker 1>that NATO was still very much there, and that he

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<v Speaker 1>would in fact have a framework for a deal on

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<v Speaker 1>Greenland in place. Today he's about to sign, we are told,

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<v Speaker 1>the Board of Peace on Gaza. There's also talk of

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<v Speaker 1>a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenski and the possibility of

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<v Speaker 1>some thaw in the ice between Russia and Ukraine. McDonald Trump,

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<v Speaker 1>you never know what tomorrow brings. Therefore, to get a sense,

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<v Speaker 1>today we are kicking off our special program with someone

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<v Speaker 1>who's become an expert in predicting the future, even in

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<v Speaker 1>these Trumpion times, these extraordinary times in which we live.

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<v Speaker 1>Joining me now is Ian Bremer, President of Eurasia Group

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<v Speaker 1>Political Scientists author. Good to have you, mister Bremmer on

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<v Speaker 1>our special coverage. Give us your prediction for these extraordinary times.

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<v Speaker 1>I know it's very tough. We had the World Economic

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<v Speaker 1>Forum president where you were the other day, and he

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<v Speaker 1>said we are living in the most challenging and complex

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<v Speaker 1>time since nineteen forty five. Given all that, I still

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<v Speaker 1>want you to put your thinking gap on and tell

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<v Speaker 1>me what's going to happen over the next twelve months.

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<v Speaker 1>What can we expect in this Trump your need on Nicks?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, First, let's recognize that Trumpian era is what he

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<v Speaker 2>wants you to call it. It's not very accurate. The

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<v Speaker 2>United States is the most powerful country in the world.

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<v Speaker 2>I accept that President Trump is not the most powerful leader.

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<v Speaker 2>Xi Jinping is why is that Chizhiping doesn't have midterm elections,

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<v Speaker 2>He doesn't have an independent judiciary. Trump is going to

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<v Speaker 2>be there in three years. Xi Jinping is right, and

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<v Speaker 2>so he's Trump is getting all the headlines, He's getting

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<v Speaker 2>all the media attention. Xi Jinping is actually in the

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<v Speaker 2>better position as a leader. In many ways. Mody is

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<v Speaker 2>in better position as the leader, longer term, more consistent,

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<v Speaker 2>allows Mody to push back more effectively than many of

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<v Speaker 2>the European leaders, and we've seen that over the last

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<v Speaker 2>few days. I guess one thing, I would say, one

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<v Speaker 2>thing that we've learned from these three days that we've

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<v Speaker 2>wasted on Greenland is that it turns out that even

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<v Speaker 2>the Europeans are capable of hitting the Americans back effectively.

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<v Speaker 2>Because this was Taco right, this was Trump chickening out.

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<v Speaker 2>He said he was going to own Greenland. He threatened

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<v Speaker 2>them there were going to be tariffs on all of

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<v Speaker 2>the countries by February one that supported Denmark. He backed

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<v Speaker 2>off of all of those things, and he got nothing

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<v Speaker 2>for it. Why why did that happen?

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<v Speaker 1>Well?

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<v Speaker 2>Number one, because the Europeans were prepared to actually put

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<v Speaker 2>reciprocal tariffs in place and use the anti coercion instrument.

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<v Speaker 2>Number two, because it turns out that there are issues

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<v Speaker 2>back in the United States where there are real divides,

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<v Speaker 2>including among Republicans, and this is one of them. In fact,

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<v Speaker 2>Greenland was even worse for Trump than the Epstein files

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<v Speaker 2>in polling minus thirty eight on Epstein, minus forty on Greenland,

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<v Speaker 2>and the Republicans were telling him, we will not support

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<v Speaker 2>you on this issue. So we had to back down,

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<v Speaker 2>especially when the markets tanked. And then number three, and

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<v Speaker 2>this is the most important thing. India is a partner

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<v Speaker 2>and a friend of the United States. The Europeans are

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<v Speaker 2>allies of the United States. That is different from being

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<v Speaker 2>a partner and friend of President Trump. And when we

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<v Speaker 2>see Paul that are being advanced by Trump that are

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<v Speaker 2>in his interest but not in the interest of the

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<v Speaker 2>United States, that has to be mentioned. And owning Greenland

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<v Speaker 2>is not in the interests of the United States strategic

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<v Speaker 2>cooperation more security with the Europeans. Sure, owning Greenland was

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<v Speaker 2>an ego issue for President Trump personally, and that's why

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<v Speaker 2>he failed. And that's an important thing for US underside.

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<v Speaker 1>So was Greenland then a distraction, possibly from the Epstein

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<v Speaker 1>files And are us saying therefore relations between the US

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<v Speaker 1>and Europe will return back to some kind of normalcy

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<v Speaker 1>ifn all that word can be used.

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<v Speaker 2>No, No, what I'm saying is that Greenland was an

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<v Speaker 2>opportunity for the Europeans to see that even divided with

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<v Speaker 2>twenty seven countries and not a single state, it's not

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<v Speaker 2>like India, It's not like China. That they were capable

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<v Speaker 2>of drawing a red line and backing Trump down. But

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<v Speaker 2>they have learned because I mean, let's face it, if

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<v Speaker 2>it wasn't for Greenland, we would have been taught talking

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<v Speaker 2>about the board to piece a lot more this week.

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<v Speaker 2>And while Trump was pushing and treating the Europeans with

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<v Speaker 2>contempt on Greenland, he was also inviting the Russian president

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<v Speaker 2>and the Belarusian president to join the border piece. The

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<v Speaker 2>countries that the Americans of the Europeans at war with.

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<v Speaker 2>He didn't even discuss it with the Europeans in advance.

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<v Speaker 2>So the Europeans do not feel like they can trust

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<v Speaker 2>President Trump, and that is leading them to hedge with

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<v Speaker 2>other countries. You know. President Trump has said that he

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<v Speaker 2>wants credit for these eight wars that he has ended,

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<v Speaker 2>but he deserves credit for the EU mercos Or trade deal.

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<v Speaker 2>That trade deal was not going to happen until Trump

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<v Speaker 2>became president and started pushing the Europeans and the Donroe

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<v Speaker 2>doctrine South Americans around, and then they said, we need

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<v Speaker 2>to do this deal. Mark Karney went to Beijing and

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<v Speaker 2>he rebuilt a relationship with Chiji. Thing that had been

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<v Speaker 2>in the toilet between Canada and China. Donald Trump deserves

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<v Speaker 2>credit for that. I mean, if it wasn't for that,

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<v Speaker 2>it wouldn't have happened. And we need to say that

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<v Speaker 2>Trump get deserves credit for that.

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<v Speaker 1>So Trump is actually enabling countries to sort of diversify

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<v Speaker 1>and be risk away from America. But I just want

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<v Speaker 1>to we'll come to the border piece in a moment,

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<v Speaker 1>mister Bremer. Is the model of the story of the

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<v Speaker 1>last three days that if you push back against Trump,

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<v Speaker 1>the big bully Trump chickens out because there could be

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<v Speaker 1>a lesson there for India as well. We've got a

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<v Speaker 1>trade deal with the United States that is still hanging fire.

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<v Speaker 1>That you don't seed to Donald Trump or to play

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<v Speaker 1>to his ego. I mean, there are two ways to

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<v Speaker 1>deal it appears with Donald Trump. Either you play with

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<v Speaker 1>his ego as the pakistanis are doing, virtually suggesting that

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<v Speaker 1>there's a red carpet rolled out for Donald Trump, or

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<v Speaker 1>do you go the way certain other countries are doing.

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<v Speaker 1>You mentioned Canada there. Markkhani was very clear that the

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<v Speaker 1>Middle Powers have to come together at a moment like

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<v Speaker 1>this and stop this coercion that America, without naming them,

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<v Speaker 1>seems to be imposing on the world.

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<v Speaker 2>What I'm saying is that there is a strategy to

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<v Speaker 2>push back on Trump and succeed, but you have to

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<v Speaker 2>have a leader that is willing and capable of actually

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<v Speaker 2>executing on that policy. The obvious example of that is Shijiving, right.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, Trump hit the Chinese hard with tariffs Liberation Day.

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<v Speaker 2>China did not pick up the phone. Instead, they retaliated,

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<v Speaker 2>including on critical minerals, and basically showed the Americans without panicking.

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<v Speaker 2>They showed the Americans, we will shut down your industries

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<v Speaker 2>if you don't actually treat us with respect. What's happening now?

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<v Speaker 2>Trump meets with Xi Jiving and Bussan. He calls it

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<v Speaker 2>a G two, he gives parody, treats China as a peer,

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<v Speaker 2>and now he's traveling to Beijing. It's going to be

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<v Speaker 2>a much more successful meeting. So Shijin Ping was in

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<v Speaker 2>the position that he could make that happen on Mark

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<v Speaker 2>Carney thinks that he is in a stronger position and

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<v Speaker 2>that's why he's pushing Trump around. But I saw in

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<v Speaker 2>that speech that Trump gave here at Davos, he called

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<v Speaker 2>out Mark Carney a number of times, and he said,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, we're not going to tolerate that it is.

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<v Speaker 2>This is a risk that Mark Carney is taking. I

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<v Speaker 2>happen to think that it is a politically savvy move

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<v Speaker 2>for him as Prime Minister. But it is possible that

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<v Speaker 2>that risk will not pay off. It's possible that Canada

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<v Speaker 2>will end up in a recession because of that risk

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<v Speaker 2>and because of trumpetting back. Canada is not only a

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<v Speaker 2>much smaller economy, but it's very dependent on the US economy.

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<v Speaker 2>Now India, you've got a country that is growing by

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<v Speaker 2>over seven percent. You've got a leader that's very popular

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<v Speaker 2>with yes, a coalition government, but he's done very well

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<v Speaker 2>in local elections recently Bihar and the rest right. And

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<v Speaker 2>not only that, but the Indians are not that dependent

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<v Speaker 2>on trade with the United States. India is useful to

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<v Speaker 2>the US in its strategic relationship as a hedge against

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<v Speaker 2>China with the Quad and the rest. So I believe

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<v Speaker 2>that Mody is in one of the stronger positions to

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<v Speaker 2>push back against Trump of most leaders in the world.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's on that moment, come to what is the latest

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<v Speaker 1>Trump headline, the Border Peace where he's effectively asking countries

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<v Speaker 1>to put one billion dollars to become part of this

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<v Speaker 1>board that's not exactly true.

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<v Speaker 2>That's not exactly true.

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<v Speaker 1>Frozen acid of one billion dollars.

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<v Speaker 2>You can join no money, but if you want to

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<v Speaker 2>be a permanent member as opposed to three years, then

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<v Speaker 2>you have to pay a billion. No one has contributed

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<v Speaker 2>that one billion to my knowledge that has accepted membership

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<v Speaker 2>so far as you want to clarify that.

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<v Speaker 1>So what should countries like India who've been offered to

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<v Speaker 1>join the board of piece? In your of you do?

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<v Speaker 1>Do you join hands with Donald Trump knowing that he

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<v Speaker 1>could just change his mind in a month from now

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<v Speaker 1>and move in an entirely different direction to what extent

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<v Speaker 1>do countries like India. It comes back to the point

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<v Speaker 1>of pushback. Do we indulge in Donald Trump when he

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<v Speaker 1>comes back with an idea like the border piece on Gaza?

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<v Speaker 1>Is it an idea worth pursuing In the first instance.

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<v Speaker 2>The head of the World Bank is on it. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>you've got the amoralties that have said that they're joining.

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<v Speaker 2>The Israelis are joining, The Russians have not said they're

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<v Speaker 2>joining yet, even though Trump said that Putin said was

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<v Speaker 2>going to join. Frequently there's a gap there, but the

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<v Speaker 2>friendship said they won't the Germans couldn't because the constitution

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<v Speaker 2>actually forbids it. So I think that this is a

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<v Speaker 2>less important question than how India handles their trade deal

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<v Speaker 2>with the United States. This is not a matter of

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<v Speaker 2>the Indians offering a billion dollars. This is not a

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<v Speaker 2>permanent commitment. If it doesn't go well, the Indians could

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<v Speaker 2>step away, just as the Italians joined Belton Road as

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<v Speaker 2>a G seven country and then pulled right out. What

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<v Speaker 2>I think is important is that this Board of Peace

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<v Speaker 2>should not be used to undermine multilateralism of the United Nations,

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<v Speaker 2>should not be used to break institutions that are important

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<v Speaker 2>globally and that India benefits from. And then India participates it.

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<v Speaker 2>And then if India decides to participate, they need to

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<v Speaker 2>make sure that that participation is constructive and does not

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<v Speaker 2>foster a long term development that will make everyone worse off.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's look again at predictions. We are in Europe at

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<v Speaker 1>the moment. Ukraine dominates a lot of the conversation. We

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<v Speaker 1>still don't know at this moment while we are speaking,

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<v Speaker 1>whether President Zelenski will meet Donald Trump here in Davos.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you believe that the war could end in the

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<v Speaker 1>next twelve months, or are we again heading potentially for

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<v Speaker 1>a prolonged conflict that's already gone on really for.

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<v Speaker 2>Four years, four years almost four years. It doesn't look

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<v Speaker 2>like it's ending soon. President Trump understands he wants to

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<v Speaker 2>cease fire, but he has more leverage over Ukraine, even

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<v Speaker 2>though Ukraine is the side that the United States is

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<v Speaker 2>fighting with, because the Ukrainians are weak, so he believes

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<v Speaker 2>he can convince, he can force Zelensky to capitulate. And

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<v Speaker 2>we've seen that with the critical minerals deal. We've seen

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<v Speaker 2>that with accepting a ceasefire with no preconditions. We've seen

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<v Speaker 2>that with a willingness maybe even to withdraw from some

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<v Speaker 2>of the presently Ukrainian occupied territories of Ukraine to make

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<v Speaker 2>them demilitarized. We've seen that with even Zelenski willing to

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<v Speaker 2>talk about elections while the war is going on. All

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<v Speaker 2>of those are things he would not do under Biden,

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<v Speaker 2>but Trump has forced him to. How has Putin conceded

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<v Speaker 2>on anything? What has Putin offered? The United States has

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<v Speaker 2>put a little bit of pressure on, not like Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 2>they put a little pressure on. But Putin sees in

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<v Speaker 2>his view that holding on longer and forcing the weaker

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<v Speaker 2>Ukrainians to continue to capitulate while driving wedges between the

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<v Speaker 2>United States and Europe and NATO is a stronger play

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<v Speaker 2>for Russia. He believes they can wait the Ukrainians, the Americans,

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<v Speaker 2>the Europeans out, and so far that's been a smart

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<v Speaker 2>move on his part.

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<v Speaker 1>So you're saying no immediate end to the conflict in Ukraine. Today,

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<v Speaker 1>the German Chancellor Fredrick Mrtz said the world is seeing

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<v Speaker 1>the final days of Iran's regime predictions for that part

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<v Speaker 1>of the world. Do you see the Iranian regime being

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<v Speaker 1>toppled in the in the near future? I mean, it

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<v Speaker 1>almost seemed that because Trump did what he did in

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<v Speaker 1>Venezuela very effect did a regime change, not a regime change.

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<v Speaker 1>Removed the president, removed an individual and has allowed his

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<v Speaker 1>vice president to continue, but and spoke more of oil

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<v Speaker 1>than democracy in Venezuela, that he could do the same

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<v Speaker 1>in it on it is clearly not Venezuela. How do

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<v Speaker 1>you see it on playing out?

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<v Speaker 2>So I was I have to say Chancellor Mertz first

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<v Speaker 2>said it was about a week and a half ago.

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<v Speaker 2>He said that he thought that the Iranian regime was

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<v Speaker 2>on its last days or weeks. I was quite startled

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<v Speaker 2>by that. There's no intelligence on the ground that implies that.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, the demonstrations at that point were already getting

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<v Speaker 2>much weaker. The Iranian regime is willing and capable to

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<v Speaker 2>repress with great force. And there were no breaches, no

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<v Speaker 2>breaks within the regime that I could see, either within

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<v Speaker 2>the IRGC, the revolution of GUARDCOREP, the besiege, the paramilitary

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<v Speaker 2>groups that carry out most of the actual repression. I

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<v Speaker 2>didn't see it. With the state media, not with telecommunication

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<v Speaker 2>and the internet that was all shut down. I didn't

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<v Speaker 2>see it. And so yes, the United States might well

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<v Speaker 2>engage in further strikes against Iran. But I just saw

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<v Speaker 2>Steve Whitcoff, the principal negotiator on many of these issues,

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<v Speaker 2>came out and he said, look, you know, even after

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<v Speaker 2>the Iranians have killed thousands of kill thousands of civilians,

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<v Speaker 2>he said, well, maybe we can negotiate with it. If

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<v Speaker 2>they're willing to negotiate, maybe we can get something done.

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<v Speaker 2>So I don't see. I would love to see, I'd

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<v Speaker 2>love to be wrong, but I don't think that in

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<v Speaker 2>the near term, this Islamic Republic is about to collapse.

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<v Speaker 1>So, in conclusion the big worldview are we heading As

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<v Speaker 1>the German Chancellor again says, it's the end of the

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<v Speaker 1>old order as we knew it. There is a new

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<v Speaker 1>world order there, if there is one. What is the

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<v Speaker 1>shape of this new world order? I keep hearing word

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<v Speaker 1>like multipolar world order G two China and America. What

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<v Speaker 1>is this new world order that's emerging out of this scale?

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<v Speaker 2>So what I called it fifteen years ago was a

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<v Speaker 2>G zero world I said that as the as it

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<v Speaker 2>means well, as the United States withdraws from leadership of

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<v Speaker 2>its own global order with its allies, that no other

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<v Speaker 2>country or group of countries are capable and willing of

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<v Speaker 2>replacing the United States. So you will have a period

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<v Speaker 2>of time of a geopolitical recession, a bus cycle where

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<v Speaker 2>it is MESSI where it is chaotic, where there is

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of impunity. And I see emerging three very

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<v Speaker 2>different kinds of global orders. In the economic space, the

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<v Speaker 2>world is already very multipolar. The Europeans are showing that

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<v Speaker 2>with their trade competencies. The Chinese showed this to Trump

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<v Speaker 2>very clearly. The US is clearly a major poll India

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<v Speaker 2>is emerging very rapidly it's multipolar, but in the security

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<v Speaker 2>order it's still very unipolar. If the United States wants

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<v Speaker 2>to do something, very few people can stop them. No

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<v Speaker 2>one else can project power like that globally. And then

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<v Speaker 2>in the technology space, actually China dominates it as a government,

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<v Speaker 2>but in the West it's dominated not by governments, it's

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<v Speaker 2>dominated by companies. It's becoming increasingly technopolar, and so these

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<v Speaker 2>three emerging orders are kind of jostling side by side

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<v Speaker 2>in different spaces at the same time.

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<v Speaker 1>It's fascinating you said that about technopolar world because you

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<v Speaker 1>stirred a bit of a controversy by suggesting that India

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<v Speaker 1>was a laggard when it came to AI, which is

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<v Speaker 1>the other big buzzword here in Davos. Not what I said,

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<v Speaker 1>it was suggested. I mean, that's what we heard that

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<v Speaker 1>Ian Bremer said India is a laggard when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to Ian.

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<v Speaker 2>Bremer said that there are two countries that are leading

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<v Speaker 2>in the world on AI, the United States and China.

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<v Speaker 2>This is obvious, it is a fact. It is true.

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<v Speaker 2>India is doing quite well compared to its economic status

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<v Speaker 2>and relative power as developing AI, especially human capacity, talent,

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<v Speaker 2>and increasingly investment, even legal framework. But but you cannot

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<v Speaker 2>compare the ability to attract capital and impact outcomes of

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<v Speaker 2>India to the US and China today and AI.

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<v Speaker 1>So therefore, in this world of various polarities economic, political,

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<v Speaker 1>and technology netwhere does India stand? How should India see

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<v Speaker 1>itself as we go ahead to twenty twenty six? What

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<v Speaker 1>do you see India's immediate twelve month timeline. I'm not

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<v Speaker 1>even looking beyond fluster.

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<v Speaker 2>As you said at the beginning, India's a middle power.

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<v Speaker 2>It's very important. It's stable. And the fact that India

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<v Speaker 2>has leadership that is more consolidated and popular than leadership

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<v Speaker 2>in almost any other democracy around the world. Only Mexico

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<v Speaker 2>really has similarity among larger countries means that India is

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<v Speaker 2>capable of pushing back in ways that other countries are not.

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<v Speaker 2>That helps India. Consistent leadership over time is something that

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<v Speaker 2>is lacking in the world today. India looks very stable.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a great growth story. But still the Americans and

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<v Speaker 2>the Chinese are dominating most of the common When you

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<v Speaker 2>talk to the big players here who are like allocating

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<v Speaker 2>capra all over the world, and they say, we don't

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<v Speaker 2>trust the United States so much anymore. What are they

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<v Speaker 2>talking about reallocating to China Because China has the market

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<v Speaker 2>size and China has the technology. India is not in

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<v Speaker 2>that conversation at this point.

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<v Speaker 1>Which is interesting because someone told me that Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 1>decided that he wanted to make America great again. He's

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<v Speaker 1>ended up making China looking great again.

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<v Speaker 2>He is There's no question that Donald Trump is making

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<v Speaker 2>China great again.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, okay, Ian Brema for giving us this wonderful worldview

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<v Speaker 1>in twenty minutes about where we stand. I mean, it's

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<v Speaker 1>all the chaos around us. I appreciate you breaking it

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<v Speaker 1>down for us so sussantly. Thank you very much. Good

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<v Speaker 1>to have you here on India today at the Davos Summit.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you Ian Bremer at the World Economic Forum. One

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<v Speaker 1>of the finest minds that you can get when it

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<v Speaker 1>comes to breaking down the world order as it stands.

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<v Speaker 1>Raj Deep sundays I in Davos for India Today