Speaker 1: Allah.
Speaker 2: Welcome in to the opening line report, Kelly Stewart. Here
on this beautiful Monday morning, let's bring in Teddy Covers
because we've got lots to discuss after wild card weekend.
Speaker 3: But it's not over just yet.
Speaker 2: We still have Monday Night football to determine who was
going to play the Patriots. Teddy, We've got the Houston
Texans at the Pittsburgh Steelers. Do you have a video up?
A free play up? Are you selling the pick? What's
going on with Monday Night football?
Speaker 1: Yeah? I'm going to play for this game on my
homepage at watertalk dot com WT dot buzz backslash TC
to take a look and see what we got for today.
The line for this game has been sitting at three
all week, you know, I mean there were three. There
are a couple of three and a halfs at the open,
but they really didn't last thirty eight the prevailing total.
We're seeing some pressure. We're seeing some Pittsburgh money, so
we're seeing some pressure on the threes and we're seeing
some under money. There's still some thirty eight and a
half out there. I don't think they'll be there for
much longer. So if you like the un for the
Texans and the Steelers. I just looked at the weather
forecast two minutes ago. They said the wind is expected
to die down tonight. It's windy right now, but expected
to die down before kickoff. Temperatures near freezing, so it's
not going to be frigid, but it's going to be
a little bit nippy.
Speaker 2: Hetty used that word on last call this weekend, and
you know, I got a pretty good chuckle out of me,
So I think he's going to start putting nippy into
his vernacular just a little bit more. Teddy, Let's get
into some of these games for divisional weekend. Do you
have any thoughts before we do, though on what we
saw last weekend and how it correlates to the divisional round.
Speaker 1: Well, certainly, let's talk about the quarterbacks who are still standing. Okay,
because right now going into Monday Night football, obviously we
have Aaron Rodgers still standing. He's played in Super Bowls,
Brock Purdy, Matthew Stafford the other two qbs who played
at Super Bowls. And then Josh Allen, who's a multi
time MVP and who we expect to be playing in
a Super Bowl sooner or later. In his career. I
think you look at the other side. You know, you've
got the three quarterbacks who were all drafted last year,
Drake May, bow Nicks, Caleb Williams, all on their second season.
You have Sam Donald and c J. Stroud as the
two veterans. Stroud in is quite his third year. Donald,
you know, and Donald's a QB. We'll talk about when
we get to breaking down the Seahawks game against San Francisco.
For Donald's a quarterback that has proven that you can't
trust him in games, in big games. He's proven it.
So there's a pretty big differential between the have qbs
and they have not qbs. That being said, the Drake
Mays and bow Nix's and Caleb Williams of the world,
they may well be the future of this league. And
it's not no surprise to see some of those young
quarterbacks standing out. Certainly, you know, Caleb Williams stood out
this past weekend once again for a Bears team that's
been remarkable. All you do is put Chicago down at
the two minute warning, and then they found a way
second half.
Speaker 3: Dan Alexander and I were sitting there talking.
Speaker 2: I had hackers minus one our other producer Tom Viola
had Bears money line. I said, well, Dan, it we
can't both win. It's twenty one to three. I'm like, Daniel,
why didn't I waste the Bears and a teaser? I'm
talking and Dan goes, Kelly, just bet the Bears second
half and guess who didn't me? And I really feel
like if you just bet the Bears in the second
half or live bet them as you guys do on
end Zone Live every Sunday here on the Wager Talking
YouTube channel, you're making money.
Speaker 3: This has been a okay here.
Speaker 2: I know we're gonna talk about the Bears game here
a minute. But when you have regression to the mean
positive or negative, eventually you'd like to think the Bears
are going to stop overcoming these deficits at halftime, but
they just haven't. They just keep on being resilient, finding
ways to win. I mean, that throw by Caleb Williams
was nothing short of miraculous.
Speaker 1: Kayla Wills is pretty good. You know. That's why I
was in the number one overall pick. And it was
the number number one overall pick on a year where
there were many NFL first round You know, there's years
where the guy can be the number one overall pick
and it's just the wrong year. But when Caleb Williams
was the number one overall pick, there was competition and
he still stood out above the rest. But with the Bear,
I mean there we don't talk about in game bets here,
but I mean to look at the Bears at halftime
and say, hey, let's take some ten to one on
Chicago to win the game. I mean, to me, that
was the most no brainer of all the no brainers
out there. Let's just you know what, you know, just
ask them that this is what they've done all year,
it's their mo You're getting ten to one for them
to come back and win a game at the against
the team that shown vulnerability. So that was a not
a bad little score.
Speaker 2: All right, Well, let's get into this week's games. Divisional
Round is upon us this weekend, Teddy, anything worth noting, right?
I know, Ralph Michaels are a good friend, is the
T and a guy, right, so he dives up all
this stuff. But historically the Divisional Round seems to be
we just picked the winner, right, the spread doesn't come
into play and so forth. Can you kind of break
that down for our audience? Who may be new to
betting this season and wants to know what they should
be looking for for the divisional rounds.
Speaker 1: Well in general in the postseason. I mean the points spreads. Yeah,
they're a piece of the equation, but teams that win
tend to cover. They don't all cover, but teams that
win tend to cover, and that is you know, when
you're talking about mostly short point spreads in a game
from the divisional round. Right now, we've got a game
this price near pick them. We've got a game this
price near a field goal. We've got a game this
price near a touchdown. So we're not talking double digit
favorites of this time of year or anything like that.
And you do have games like yesterday where the Rams
won and didn't cover that they are on Saturday. That
you know that can happen, especially when you have the
bigger favorites in this round and moving forward you don't
tend to have the bigger favorites.
Speaker 2: Right, But essentially, if you just picked the winner outside
of Rams Panthers, you bet that dog on the money
line they want outright, So for the divisional round, should
we be looking for that same kind of thing? If
you like the dog. You should be sprinkling on the
money line.
Speaker 1: You should be doing that in the regular season, you know,
change in the playoffs when you play a dog, all right,
and again there are guys that put it in. And
you know what, just about every underdog I play, I
have at least a taste of the money line. You know,
I sprinkle something on the money line because I'm not
playing the underdog if I don't think they can win
the game, or being in petition to win the game,
unless you're talking about you know, I'm taking plus thirty
two with someone and you know, in college and you
say they're going to hang around and maybe they won't
get bombed. You know. But in the NFL, if I'm
taking a dog, in the NBA, if I'm taking a dog,
I'm just about always sprinkling something on the money line.
I also wanted to go through some future book odds
what we're looking at right now, and again, of all
the bets you can make, the future book mets and bets,
even at this time of year, probably the worst any
of these teams. You want just bet them on the
money line and roll it over. Bet them on the
money line and roll it over. The future book way
is the way you can. You can put it on X,
you can put it on Instagram. Oh look what I got.
But the wise guys who actually make money better on sports,
they're gonna better on the money line and roll it
over if they want to, or they can pull, you know,
they up and pull, you know whether they to, you know,
take some back out. You don't have to hedge against
yourself when you know everyone, Oh I get to the
super Bowl, Do I hedge? What do I do when
you're better on the money line and rolling it over?
The debate is not do I hedge against myself? The
debate is how much do I risk on the next one.
But we're looking at the Seahawks as the favorites right now.
I'm seeing plus two seventy five plus three dollars on Seattle.
The Rams in that same range at plus three dollars.
The Pats are plus five fifty plus six bucks. Same
thing with the Bills. Denver's plus seven hundred, Houston, twelve hundred,
Chicago and San fran The long shots in Pittsburgh the
longest of the long shots at sixty you feelself find
sixty one are better on the Steelers right now, if
that's the bet you want to make. I don't personally
think the Pittsburgh is gonna win their next four games,
So not a bet that I would make.
Speaker 2: All right, let's get into this week's set of games.
We're gonna talk about my Denver Broncos. First, the Bills
are headed to Denver.
Speaker 3: Hey, Teddy.
Speaker 2: All season long, I've been saying the Denver Broncos, they
just keep waiting as a fan, like this metric is
not working for me. There's something that's got to give,
and I've been wrong more occasions than not. They weren't
necessarily blowing teams out or winning by margin.
Speaker 3: Last year.
Speaker 2: They were a great underdog, awful favorite. This year, not
great as an underdog because they weren't in that spot
very many times. But again, they weren't beating the crap
out of teams. They weren't covering the seven and a half,
and that started with Week one versus the Titans. They
were kind of tooth and nail all season long. Now
they're catching points here in Denver, and I'm going, Okay,
this is the spot I want to beat the Broncos.
Speaker 1: Maybe maybe, so I would like to give you a
couple sets of lines for all these games. I'd give
you my powering number for these contests. That'd be the
first number I give them. We'll talk about where the
lines opened last night, and we'll talk about where they
are moving today. And when it comes to movements, not
seeing a whole lot. This is like vetting market with constipation.
Not a lot of movements, but my powering number four Buffalo, Denver.
I've got the bills minus a half of points, all
right at that pickslash minus zero point five. So Buffalo
the shortest of favorites. Last night it opened Buffalo, there
were pick'ms. There were minus ones. There were minus one
and a half. I called it minus one on a quarter.
That was the close. There had more ones in one
and a half. It was like water. Two pickums out there.
Total opened last night forty six and a half forty seven.
What are we seeing today mostly Buffalo minus one, minus
one and a half. There are some prevalent pick'ms out
there in the marketplace. Is also at two and a
half out there in the marketplace right now, at least
in the global books and here in Vegas, I'm seeing
a pick them at circa right now for the bills
and the Broncos. So we're seeing New England. I've seeing
Buffalo short favorite, which is exactly where my number is
for the total. Again, last night we had forty six
and a half forty What are we seeing today? Forty
six and a half forty seven. Not a lot of
movement when it comes to the numbers at this stage
of the season, and I don't expect to see a
lot of movement off the openers. You know, when it
comes to emergency betgalers. We had a couple last week.
I'm not convinced we're gonna have any today, but let's
see if the markets do anything while we're on air.
That's why we like to go at eight am Pacific time,
because that's when the markets really start to move here
in Las Vegas, where I've been for the last twenty
eight football seasons. So this is a rematch from last
year's wild Card weekend game that Buffalo won thirty one
to seven. Pretty dominant victory in that regard. And of course,
Josh Allen, we talked about the qbs that have won rings.
You know, Rogers has got one, Stafford's got one, Party
has been in the big game. If I got one
quarterback that I want with the game on the line
in the fourth quarter right now standing in the posty
and Josh Allen's that guy. You know, three of three
in the red zone for Buffalo yesterday, two of two
on fourth down, including the ten yard push push that
set up the game winning touchdown. You know, and the
quotes coming out of the Bills locker room after the
game as positive as positive gets, you know, Sean McDermott quote.
When your quarterbacks that type of warrior, that type of competitor,
it just goes through the whole team. And there's truth
to that Josh Allen quote. We feel like Ben, of course,
with Buffalo finding a way to win a tight game
on the road in a hostile environment. You know, that
crowd in Jacksone was something yesterday, you know, as good
a crowd as I've ever seen in Jacksonville. We've perfectly
honest quote from Josh Allen. We feel like we've been
in situations like this now. Every game presents itself in
a different way, but to understand the moment to not
ride the wave again, that was stuff that we've learned
throughout the entire season. We're able to utilize that and
use it today. The cornerback to Davis White, who had
the game ceiling interception on the final drive, quote, these
games come down to the last few minutes. Like I've
been saying for weeks. Man, we're calloused as a team.
We get situations like this. We don't blink. Best quarterback
in the league's gonna get us points, just up to
us to make big time stops at the end of
the game. We really get one. We got a big
time pick today. Those are very positive quotes from a
team that certainly has all kinds of upside this postseason
with the QB. We want our money on that. Being said, boy,
that defense is still suspect. The run defense was still
suspected enough to make me concerned, very concerned about this
matchup with Denver. They allowed six point six yards per
play yesterday in Jacksonville. And I know I wasn't the
only one who live bet both sides of that game.
You didn't trust anyone, you know. Obviously I had the
Jags and the last live bet I made was the Jags.
After the Bills scored the touchdown, but Lawrence has passed
the first down pass was tipped and picked, so the
dam made a clutch play. This hope you know Josh Allen.
I like this quote too from Josh Aller quote. Now
we have a chance to do it again. Feels good.
At the same time, it just means we get another game.
I like that focus, not that celebratory aspect for a
team that's you know, that's the guy they got work
to do to reach their ultimate goal. Worth noting for
Buffalo a couple of key injuries yesterday. Jordan Poyer, the safety,
the Pro Bowl caliber safety, didn't play in the second half.
That secondary is all banged up. They got a rookie
Jordan Hancock and a second year cole bisherpol bischerp made
a play on that interception. It's still a banged up
secondary right now. And of course wide receiver Gave Davis,
who's not a huge factor for that team, but receiving
depth is a big piece of the Bill's equation. He
got hurt in the second half of that ball game
as well. Check his status. As for the Broncos, I
mean they're coming off the buy and this is a
team that if we talk about why Denver is where
they is complimentary football. The games where the defense didn't
play well, the offense stepped up. The games of the
offense didn't play well, the defense stepped up. When the
game that neither one played well, the special team stepped up.
I mean, Denver really did a remarkable job at playing
complimentary football throughout the course of the season. And it's
a Broncos team when we think about their identity defenses,
certainly at the top. You know, and you read the
quotes coming out of this team. You know, you know
Vance Joseph quote. You know, I don't call a lot
of man what we do with mostly pressure up front,
with matchup principles on the back end. It's like playing
a box and one beat to defense in basketball, it's
zoned inside and match outside. These days, the beauty of
playing great defense this league is the ability to have
different structures. You can get DB's close to the receivers
without giving the man tag. That's the expertise. You know,
this team, you know, they entered the season with sacking
their opponents more than ten percent of opposing dropbacks. That's
one out of every ten. Only nine teams in the
twenty first century have been able to do that. Denver
is one of them. So the pass rush has been there,
does that work against Buffalo not as much. You know,
six Pro bowlers for Denver, three of them on the
defensive side of the football. Certainly the talent level is there,
and of course you know the defense sixty eight sacks
best in the NFL in the red zone. They're also
minus three and turnover margin for the full season, and
you know, when you talk about turnover margin in the
postseason since two thousand, only one team, the twenty twenty
one LA Rams has gone on to win a Super
Bowl with a negative turnar of margin in the playoffs.
So a lot of the hype for Denver during their
bye week was we got to control the turnovers. We
need to win that battle because of something they didn't
do obviously with a minus three for the season. And
to have the record they did despite the not positive
turnover margin regular season speaks to how good this defense
actually was and how clutch bo Nicks was as well.
When it comes to this point spread, I'm telling you
the markets do not fully respect Denver. There's a fair
bit of love for Buffalo in the marketplace. I do
not see the Broncos becoming favorites in this game despite
their defensive numbers that are better than their opponents. The
markets are going to trust Josh Allen more than are
going to trust Boone Nicks in this one. I think
Buffalo opened the favorite and they stay the favorite. This
is not a game where I'm expecting this number to flip.
Speaker 2: All right, Teddy, Let's get into the next game. And
I think this one's going to be really interesting because
we just talked about Caleb Williams and the Bears and
what they were able to do there on Saturday night,
and that was win another second half. Right, you don't
need to play four quarters of football anymore. You just
need to be better in the second half, apparently, and
that's something that the Rams have been really frustrating about.
We talked about winning by margin and whenever the Rams
are going to the East Coast, and I know that
Chicago's not exactly the East coast. That was why I
said I thought I was one of the only ones
on the Panthers the other day, is because it just
didn't seem like every time Matthews traveled east he's really
given much of a you know what. And then he
burned me because I had his under two hundred sixty
five and a half passing yards and that last sixty
six yard drive was the dagger for me. Talk to
me about this La Rams team headed into Chicago. Do
we still think Chicago's frauds? Because I've been saying all
season long that they're frauds, The Broncos are frauds, and
the Patriots are frauds.
Speaker 3: Yet here we are.
Speaker 1: Sure well, lots of questions unpacked there. Let's start with
this my party number, the Rams minus four in Chicago.
The markets last night opened, there were three and a halfs,
there were fours, There were four and a halfs. Really
was a split market total fifty one and a half
by far the highest total of these divisional round games.
What are we seeing today? Mostly three and a half,
But there are still fours out there, and a lot
of the three and a halfs have juice on them.
Fifty one the current total, and most books there is
a fifty and a half and a fifty one and
a half out there if you want to shop around.
But certainly again, if you ask me what the number,
you know, four and fifty one. That's my power numbers
coming four to fifty one. It is pretty close to
where the markets are right now. For these two squads
and the Bears again, even with the come from behind
win against the Packers, there's not going to be a
lot of love for the Bears in the betting market
place because the markets to look at Chicago and say,
this is a positive turnover team, and they don't trust
a positive turnover team. You look at Chicago on the
defensive side of the football, and their defensive numbers aren't
particularly pretty, you know. You know, the defense allowed a
full six yards per play in the win against the Packers,
and of course no one's forgotten the Niners game where
they give up forty two points and thirty two first
downs and seven point three yards per play when they're
not creating turnovers. It's a Bears defense that has been suspect.
That being said, you know, I mean, they're down twenty
one to three. Williams is completed less than half his passes,
He's thrown a couple of picks, and they're down still
at the two minute warning of that ballgame at home
as a number two seed. And what happens, playmaker is
making plays. And that's what Chicago has done again seven
different times this year. The Bears have been trailing at
the two minute warning and found a way to win
a ball game. When you do that again and again
and again, there's a level of confidence, there's a level
of expectation that builds up. So yeah, it's lucky, but
at some point it stops being lucky and it starts
to mean something. You know, sure, you know when you
watch Caleb Williams on fourth and eight and third and
ten and throwing the touchdown pass, you know there's a
lot of things to be impressed for that. And again,
they're minus two in turnovers, they have an eighteen point deficit.
They had four fourth down failures in that ball game
and they still won. You know, again, at ten to one,
the Bears are trailing. It's something to look at. That
being said, you know, there's no team in the NFL
I want more on the money line than Chicago and
the markets. When you see a team with this type
of profile, the qbuho hasn't been there before, the coach
who hasn't been there before, the positive turnover to Branchell,
you know the markets are going to look the other side.
And then that's why you know again, no, no, no, the
Bear's are our lane of field goal here there the
Rams are lanea field goal here. They're laying more than
a field goal here, which is telling us that, you know,
the markets really don't like Chicago very much. But I mean,
the Rams defense down the stretch was not good. Was
not a let's lay poinsts them on the road type
of defense. You give up thirty four to the Alliances,
to give up thirty eight to the Seahawks, twenty seven
of the Falcons, twenty to Arizona, and Arizona passed the
ball up and down the field in that ballgame, meaningless game,
you know, thirty one of the Panthers. That's their last
five games, so twenty seven plus and four of those
contests Carolina against the Rams defense yesterday, four touchdowns and
four red zone trips. All right, Carolina went three on
four thousand. They had two turnover and the ram didn't
sniff a point spread cover. Then you had the Matthew
Stafford finger injury as well, you know, which is supposedly
is not gonna be anything but Stafford quote, you know,
it wasn't pleasant. We'll see what it is. The reports
are there's no ligament damage, and of course Stafford did
still throw for three hundred passes three hundred yards, three
touchdowns and a pick. But you do worry about that finger.
You do worry about that defense from a confidence standpoint,
from a coach who's been in, a quarterback who's been
there standpoint, Certainly the Rams have the edge. But right
now we talked about a travel spot again. You're in Carolina,
you travel back to the West coast. Now you travel
the Soldier Field, and there's going to be different kind
of weather this week. It's still early, but it's still
going to be Chicago in January at night. I think
this is going to be the late game, though I
haven't seen the times for these yet updated. But the
bottom line is, even if it is the early game,
it's still going to be at night in Chicago on Saturday,
which is less rest Rams flying back back west and
then back east. They don't have the extra day to
do that.
Speaker 3: Teddy, I'm gonna chime in here real quick.
Speaker 2: So we do not have the times, but it looks
like the Saturday games are San Francisco, Seattle, Buffalo, Denver,
and the Sunday games are La Chicago and then New
England will be the late Sunday game.
Speaker 1: All right, So I always taught the Odds Logic Live
odd screen. In this instance, it looks like the Odds
Logic Live od screen has a wrong game.
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, I mean the score app I'd like to
think is correct, but you never know. We'll find out
here here shortly, but that's what it appears as of
right now.
Speaker 3: Sorry.
Speaker 2: If you want to finish any other thoughts on LA Chicago, it's.
Speaker 1: Important note and I'm gonna check one other place real
quick so we have maybe a better idea of.
Speaker 3: Surecause you're right.
Speaker 2: A Sunday afternoon game in Chicago, if the sun is
out partially is a lot more. Is a lot different
than being a freezing cold at night type of game.
Speaker 1: For it, Yes, men is showing it on Sunday. Okay,
so for what it's worth. And the early espn ACU
weather forecast has fourteen degrees at Soldier Fields.
Speaker 2: Not no, it is not LA weather. All right, anything
else before we move on to the next.
Speaker 1: Game again, I'm not anticipating a whole lot of line
move on this one. We've seen a little bit of
Bears money and by the littlest of the little bits,
I'm not I don't think this goes to three. It could,
but I don't think it will. I think there will
be enough RAM support in the marketplace despite the weather,
despite the defensive concerns. You asked Chicago of fraud and
you said you thought there were a fraud all season.
The betting markets agree with you, and that's why this
number is where it is.
Speaker 3: All right, The betting markets probably won't.
Speaker 2: Agree with me here, but the new Lands Patriots were
the third team on the fraud list from me this year,
and they didn't look like it last night, or did they.
That was one of those games where I was just
kind of like, not really involved, just kind of casually watching,
getting ready for Monday morning, you know. And it looked
all right until halftime. I'm just a slug fest with
lots of field goals getting kicked, and then the second half.
Speaker 3: It looked at of like the Chargers quit.
Speaker 1: So I had a great day on Friday, I had
a great day on Saturday, and then I gave it
all back yesterday, which was pretty frustrating. I'm sure it
was frustrating for the clients as well. And I came
I had applied money on Philly. I had a big
ticket play on Philly, and I thought Philly was pretty awful. Well,
let Dan quit for his Eagles, but it wasn't Niners good.
It was Eagles bad. And then I had the Chargers,
and I don't think it was Patriots good. I thought
it was the Chargers were. I did see them play
that way once this year, lost at Jacksonville right before
their bye week. They won four in a row. That
went to Jacksville. They were flat as a pancake. They
were blown out of that game by halftime, and it
was over yesterday's game for the Charger. They weren't blown
out by halftime only because the Patriots weren't good, but
the Charges were pretty awful, and certainly offensively, they were
pretty awful. That being said, you know, the Patriots are
a team that the betting markets don't fully trust, and
we're seeing that obviously. We don't have a look at
the lines here. So New England, I've got New England
minus two at home against Houston if the Texans win tonight.
I've got New England minus five and a half at
home against the Steelers if the Steelers oh win tonight.
And of course it's worth noting if Houston goes to
New England, they'll be on a ten game winning streak
and coming off of Monday night football victory, they will
be playing on a shorter week I was having played
on Monday. Same thing for Pittsburgh. But Pittsburgh, if they
win tonight, they'll have Aaron Rodgers, you know, coming off
back to back National TV wins Dogs. So both teams
could have a decent amount of betting market support, Houston
or Pittsburgh if they get the w especially again, the
Patriots were not outstanding in last night's games and turned
it on the outside of the football. Their defense played
very well, but I thought a lot of that was
La La just didn't have it. And the Patriots last night,
oh three in the red zone. Two turnovers. That's I'm
not going to cut it against teams that plays better
than the Chargers did. That. Being said, they had only
two penalties, they had one hundred and forty six rushing yards.
Those are two really good ways to win playoff games.
Don't penalize yourself and run the football. Multiple injuries for
New England in the secondaries a big concern. Christian Gonzalez
was hurt, Carlton Davis was hurt. Gonzales did not come
back in the ballgame, Davis was out for a long time,
came back in then left again. And if those two
guys of either of those two guys at heart we're
talking were hurt. We're talking about Charles Woods as a
top backup on the outside, the second year player or
the rookie Kobe Minor, the seventh rounder out of Memphis.
The slot cornerback Marcus Jones could move outside if need be.
But injuries at the cornerback position for New England or
definitely something worth paying attention to. That being said, even
with the injuries, last night, Patriots defense was the best
uniton on the field that wasn't close. Herbert was sacked
six times. LA only had one hundred and twenty net
passing yards on thirty seven dropbacks against an elite q
you know, with an elite QB. Drake May after the
game quote, how about our defense man. Congrats to the
defense for a night. It was so fun to watch.
Worth noting the Chargers looked I mean, you're right, they
looked on last night. The teams that rested starters in
Week eighteen, the playoff games the Packers didn't win. You know,
they had a big lead and let it get away
and Obviously LA didn't win either. They looked awful. You know,
they had an edge in December, they sat and they
didn't get that edge last night. The passing game didn't work,
they didn't have open receivers, and we'll give New England
credit for that, but it's not anything we necessarily expect
for the Patriots moving forward. That being said, doesn't matter
who wins tonight, New England's going to be favored against
the Texans or the Steelers. Like I said, my numbers
New England minus two versus Houston minus five and a
half Versteelers. Let's see if the markets agree with me
as to where these numbers should be based on what
happens this evening. And obviously, if you see a blowout tonight,
if Houston dominates or at Pittsburgh dominates, the numbers are
likely to be a little bit lower. But if no
one's expecting a blowout tonight.
Speaker 3: Okay, no one is expecting a blowout tonight.
Speaker 2: Take that with what you will, Teddy, Let's kind of
talk about teams playing each other for a third time, right,
that was a discussion when the Bears Packers played. Now,
granted they played three times, and I think five and
a half weeks or something just absolutely absurd.
Speaker 3: Forty nine ers got the win in Philly. Now they're
going on the road. As you mentioned to start the show,
versus the Super Bowl favorite Sam.
Speaker 2: Donald and this Seattle Seahawks, I do a little spreadsheet.
Everybody knows I'm kind of like a spreadsheet nerd, but
I've been doing a lot of stuff with AI and
I kept telling it. No, Sam Donald does not play
for the Jets anymore. He plays for Seattle, and oh
my god, he looks like a possible Super Bowl caliber
quarterback at times. I know he's made some mistakes, but
Sam Donald is now good. Sam Donald, Teddy covers. No,
you disagree with me, Okay, let's hear what your thoughts are.
Speaker 1: My party number is Seattle six and a half. The
market's open seven and forty five and a half last night,
and the sevenths are mostly gone. I'm seeing seven and
a half at all the leading indicator books, both globally
and here in Vegas. There are still sevens with juice
out there as we speak, but the markets are PREI
to the movement and seven and half. Whether they come
back as another question entirely, but we've certainly seen some
initial Seattle money. A lot of that has to do
with the forty nine ers injury report. You brought up
the two meetings between these two teams this year. Let's
talk about them right now. Opening Day, these two teams
played in Seattle. San Francisco got the win and cover,
and they were lucky to get that winning cover, all right.
The Sea Bags had first and five after a penalty,
first and five from the nine yard line with a
minute to play, and what happened, Sam donald sack fumble.
San fran got the victory. The rematch was Week eighteens.
They played Week one and then Week eighteen, and that's
why this game is here in Seattle. In that rematch,
San frank could not control either side of the line
of scrimmage. But it's not like Donald was any more
trustworthy in that game than he was in the first meeting.
The Seahawks scored thirteen points only because they could run
the football effectively. Kyle Shanahan talking about playing Seattle, quote,
glad we get another shot. They played us really well.
They definitely beat us, but I know we can play better.
From a prop standpoint, it's also worth noting and it
was probably a juice to lay with it. But boy,
Christian McCaffrey now has scored a touchdown in all eight
of the postseason games in his career, so it's worth
noting McCaffrey, Yes on the TV might be worth a
look in this one. Of course, san Fran got the win.
San Fran got the cover. The Eagles weren't very good,
you know, the drive to win the game. Aj Brown
and DeVante Smith both dropped potential big play passes. But
that being said, san Fran looked like the hungary your team.
The offsive line held up rock Purdy was sacked only
once in that ballgame. The offense hit a handful of
big plays, you know, demark the Robinson had one. John
Jennings had won as a receiver and won as a passer.
And when you hit big plays and you can stay
in games. But now, obviously George Kittles hurt in that game.
That's another loss for San Fray. Maybe look at Jake
tongs props for what it's worth. They give one hundred
and forty rush yards on the road in a playoff game.
Barclay had more than one hundred. You don't win a
lot of our playoff games, we're giving up one hundred
and forty rushing yards on the road, and I've got
some concerns about certainly the linebacking corps. Obviously, you know,
I mean Dee Winters and Luke Gifford and Tatum Bethune
and obviously Fred Warner. You know, you got Eric Kendricks
and Garrett Wallow. Eric Kendricks was signed by the team
on November twenty ninth, Garrett Walla was signed on December eighth,
and Kendricks goes from the outside looking in, our playoff
run may look super unlikely, but in the being in
the building for the last month and some change, now,
it's not a question of why we're in the situation
we're in. I believe in this team. You know, there's
curely positive chemistry in Sam Fru's going, Chana hancertly a
coach who we trust in these type of ball games.
But it's very very much a flawed football team. And
that's why there's you know, the money's coming for their opponent.
But you know, brock Party is a QB. He's not
getting you know, if you asked me who do I
want in this game? Which which QB? Do I trust
more is not close. It's brock party over Sam Donald.
Sam Donald when he's planning and the numbers, let me
give me some numbers from Sam Donald. Do you know
when Donald played a good defense? He struggled all right,
playing and simple, all right? When we look at what's
happened down the stretch for Donald. Let's see, at one
point he was number one in the NFL and total
QBR and since November he's twenty seventh as many passing
touchdowns eight as interceptions eight. During that span, he avers
nine point nine yards to pass attempt other in the
season seven point two yards per past attempt since So,
Sam Donald has regressed and the film is out on
Sam Donald. And we see us sore Sam Donald in
the postseason last year and stepping up with trying to
make big plays down the stretch, and he was very good.
And Sam Donald this year trying to make big plays
down the stretch wasn't very good. This is not a
quarterback that I trust in a playoff game of this
Magazer is certainly not in this point spread range. But
he's playing the right defense to do it. I mean,
the forty nine ers, they're really really banged up and
Seattle off a bye, they've won, They've run for one
hundred and sixty yards plus in each of the last
three games. You know which Clint Kubie is doing something
right when it comes to the offensive game plan for Seattle.
When they can run the football, and we just saw
San Franz defense vulnerable to the run. Saquon Barkley ran
all over them yesterday. That's advantage Seattle and boy from
a defensive standpoint, I mean, Seattle's defense has been remarkable
throughout the course of the regular season, and down the
stretch they were even better. And they blew up the
line of scrimmage when these two teams played in San
Francisco just a couple of weeks ago. I would be
surprised if they do it again. We're talking about again
the elite defense is in the league. You got Denver,
You've got Houston, and you've got Seattle. Those are the
three that stand out in that regard. Hence the betting
market support for the Seahawks here. And this is one
where you know, it's hard. It's hard for me to
trust Darnold and it's to trust to forty nine ers.
I did not have an early bet early week bet
on the Seahawks and forty nine ers. For me, it's
one that we'll think about it for a few days
and see if see again. A lot of times I
do my best work when I'm perusing, and you know,
you just let it flow through your brain for a
day or two. We'll come back and look at it
again Tuesday or Wednesday. But right now I didn't have
a lean on this one. Wow, I know, I know,
I know. I can't lay it with Seattle.
Speaker 3: Okay, there you go, Teddy.
Speaker 2: Do you have any definitive plays as of eleven thirty
Eastern on Monday morning, No, I have, So.
Speaker 1: I have a play on tonight's game.
Speaker 3: Yes, sorry, Monday Night Football. Teddy's in play.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm in play. And again, I know yesterday was
a crappy day. It's still been a real good I mean,
the last five weeks were over sixty percent across sports
were up nearly forty units of profit. The NFL is
above sixty percent over the last five weeks. I mean,
it's been Yesterday stuck, but the bigger picture has been fine.
So check out my homepage, ott Buzz, Backslash TC. I'm
in play for Monday Night football tonight, I expect to
have one NBA post. They didn't have time to do
it before I got on air, so I expect to
post it soon after passing college basketball tonight. It's a
limited card this evening, and as the week progresses, we'll
put up some I expect to put up something for
the National Championship Game in college football, and I expect
that we'll have something in the NFL as well. But
what are we looking for? Emergency betting alert?
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, the comments section is sad. They said, how
come there's no red light plays? Can you make one up?
We cannot make one up. But I just wanted you
guys to see it. It's still here. It's still sitting
on my desk, patiently waiting in case there is an
emergency betting alert.
Speaker 1: So I mean, if you guys want, if you guys
want something, if you like Seattle, the line has moved
from seven to seven and a half at all the
leading Indicator books. So the seven find a seven with
juice a FanDuel you find a seven at circa here
in Vegas, Seattle, this line's not going to six and
a half, even though my number says it should not
going to six and a half. So if you like
the forty nine ers, there's your emergency betting alert. Okay,
if you like the Seahawks, bet the sevens right now.
If you like the forty nine ers, you can take
plus seven and a half. But san Franz Injins report
is pretty dicey. Look at that piece and I grabbed
Seattle minus six and a half last night. Good job
in the comments. We appreciate it. That's good number.
Speaker 3: That is a great number. That is awesome.
Speaker 2: All right, Teddy, We got a little bit of time
left before Dan Alexander has to leave us for a
wager talk today with Andy Lang. Do you have anything
you want to leave our audience with. Do you want
to answer some questions? Are we taking an ear really out?
Speaker 1: So if anyone so, now's a great time and in
the postseason, and these these are you know, when when
in the regular season we've got sixteen games to go through,
so we're you know a lot of times we're a
little bit pressed for time. In the postseason, we have
six or four or next week two games to go through,
or the week after no games to go through. Great
time for questions. If you guys, have any questions, please
leave them in the chat. I wanted that comment from
Johnny Gang because I thought it was really funny. And
it's true because every time you have the diversity you have,
you pick up the light, you're so happy. You're like, yes,
so it's it's fun.
Speaker 2: It's fun, you know, just like when I have the
CLV trophy on bat on it that wasn't fun. Nobody
wants a CLV trophy everybody else. Everybody wants a siren
and a light like it's like a good crop. All right, guys,
if you do have a question for Teddy regarding the
divisional round of the NFL playoffs or anything leading up
to Super Bowl, please jump in.
Speaker 3: Oh, Dalton Schultz.
Speaker 2: Receiving yards tonight, Teddy, I know you don't do a
ton with player props.
Speaker 1: I don't anything that I haven't done any work on
Dalton st the Shultz himself and what Pittsburgh allows against
tight ends and all of that. So I'm sorry I'm
the wrong guy to ask. I do the props that
I bet are the ones that just jump off the
page of me. You know, when I'm looking at something,
I'm like, that's stupid. You know, you know those are
the ones that that that stand out and that one doesn't.
The Shultz prop did not, So I apologize for But
I don't you know, I'm one thing I'm never gonna do, guys,
I'm never gonna give you. Oh yeah, I do this
the other night. That's something I haven't looked at. It's
not how it work. I don't know the answer is
I don't know.
Speaker 3: Okay, question and it's okay. I don't see the other
questions in the chat. Guys.
Speaker 2: We got two thousand of you, almost twenty one hundred
of you guys watching live right now. So we just
wanted to say thank you for hanging out with us
every single Monday. Here on the opening line report at
Teddy Underscore covers. You can see him all over the
place at wager talk dot com. Teddy go ahead interject.
Speaker 1: Oh obviously asked if we've got a double of greeting
from Dublin, which we appreciate that. Now we're never for
Josh Allen the Buffalo Bills. No, it is not now
or never.
Speaker 2: Do you think Sean McDermott is a Super Bowl winning
football coach or do you think that he is possibly
holding this team back?
Speaker 1: I don't think Sean McDermott is holding the team back. Okay,
I think Sean McDermott is capable of winning a Super Bowl.
I don't think he's a clown, all right. There are
coaches out there, There are clowns that you know, Yeah,
even clowns can win a Super Bowl. You know, when
you have the right team at the right time and
things break right for you, you can go a long way,
you know. You know, we've seen clowns win, you know,
in college basketball. You see it happen all the time
in March Madness, or you're like, how the hell did
that guy win six games? And said, wow, he has
better talent. His team got hot, you know.
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna assume this question is for me. Would
you tease denverrop over a touchdown? Already did and I
did it with the with the Indianapolis or Indianapolis Indiana Hoosiers.
Speaker 3: I did that last night.
Speaker 2: When that line came out, I said, fine, fine, I'm
looking down to get any money I can on Indiana
here Teddy without laying seven and a half in the
National Championship Game.
Speaker 3: So I tease it with the Bears, the Bills.
Speaker 2: Now with the Broncos, basically any teaser opportunity now until
next Monday for the National Championship.
Speaker 3: I'm locked and loaded.
Speaker 1: So you think Indiana's winning that game and winning it,
We're not worried about what kind of margin they're gonna
win it by it, But do you.
Speaker 2: Think who's I would just I would like listen if
they win twenty four to twenty three, I'm going to
jump off my roof. But I do think this is
an Indiana offense versus a Miami defense right that we
have seen both be absolutely prolific, especially here in the playoffs.
I would be a little I think I think Indiana
is getting a little too much love. But I do
think that they win the football game. I know it's
up to eight in some spots. Now, I know this
is an NFL show, but the teaser question kind of
correlated with that. But yeah, you could absolutely tease the
Niners with the Broncos if the seven and a half
getting it up to seven and a half excuse me,
is available at your book and you are not laying
more than minus one twenty on teasers.
Speaker 1: Where do you finding minus one twenty on teasers in
the modern world?
Speaker 2: I got minus one ten. In fact, Teddy, you got
to ask. Listen, this is not what I'm allowed to
say on the show. This is not anything I should
ever say on air. But I'm going to tell.
Speaker 3: You you can negotiate. Just ask. You'd be surprised.
Speaker 1: Ask.
Speaker 3: There you go, not not in Vegas. You can't walk
up to don't go.
Speaker 2: Don't use that advice and walk up to the super
book or circle and say I want one minus one
ten on teasers.
Speaker 3: But if you catch my drift, you know what I'm
talking about.
Speaker 2: Just ask and you too can get minus one ten
on teasers or maybe.
Speaker 3: Little kickback or you know, reduced juice.
Speaker 2: Never hurts to ask, they say, no, find somebody new,
Teddy covers you are a wealth of knowledge. I am
a wealth of uh not knowledge, but ways to gain
the system. So let's see if we can't have ourselves
a great NFL week between the two of us.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna let you get out of here.
Speaker 2: I know you've got some NBA work to do, as
well as lots of NFL ahead of you. Wt dot
buzz backslash TC is Teddy's homepage on wager talk dot
com full of free picks.
Speaker 1: Go ahead, oh, I just want to say so. First
of all, I disparaged a live on screen for oddological
moment ago and in fact the live o screen was correct,
you know with the Sunday versus Saturday, which where where
the games were loaded A free style seven day all
access for Oslogio to oslogic dot com back slash Teddy.
Check that out, and boy, guys, we really appreciate the likes.
We appreciate the comments, we appreciate the follows. We've got
what two and forty thousand of you yeah, following us
on YouTube, which is remember we started with zero kel
I do I remember having zero? I remember one, you know,
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why are we getting all the you know, if you
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Speaker 3: Thank you guys. Have a wonderful divisional week, Teddy, and
that will be back for the Conference Championships next Monday morning,