Speaker 1: You are.
Speaker 2: Welcome to the best sports betting show on the planet.
This is wager Talk Today. It is a massive, massive
show on Thursday. Thank you everybody for joining us. I
am your host Andy Lang's NFL Week one first game Tonight.
I'm gonna give you a full prop report here at
the end of the show. Dave Mason is going to
join us from bed online. He's gonna tell us where
he's seeing the sharp money and the sharp action from
bed online. Then we're gonna talk some specific games. Nick
Parsons is gonna break down Kansas and Missouri, and of
course Johnny's gonna get us started with the Steam report.
We have a ton to get to free picks breakdowns,
so let's get that like button please, it really helps
the algorithm out. And let's get started with Gianni. Guys,
we know we have a ton of sports to look at,
so we're gonna do NFL Steam Report, then we're gonna
do college football, and then we'll do baseball. So we're
gonna cover those in the three Giohnny, Happy Thursday.
Speaker 3: How are you never better? Brother?
Speaker 4: Just fired on Gibraltar plus two and a half plus
two and a half over Albania, soccer friendly, soccer friendly,
so plus two and a half goals minus one twenty
we're on Gibraltar, just sharing that it's up all free
pick on uh wagerstalk dot com. But I sent it
out to subscribers as a three percent as well.
Speaker 3: So yeah, man, things are just really good.
Speaker 4: Like I'm sitting in the middle of so much information
that's coming in because I've now had more accounts than
I've had since I was coming up. Like you know,
when I was coming up, I was trying to get
as many accounts as I can for these guys, knowing
the higher up AM in the.
Speaker 3: Food chain, the better the stuff's gonna be.
Speaker 4: And now I'm back, like with I have so many accounts,
so now it's just filtering through the information. So I
have to be so prepared, like with all my leans
already for NFL for college football, so as they come in,
we can fire. And so far, so good, you know,
getting down on most of the numbers. But when I
can't get a number, I just let it go. Our
subscribers to do this, more than enough action, more than
enough opportunities to get your money in good, that's the key.
Now with point spreads, we're not dealing money lines anymore.
Every money lines matter too, but with half points you
feel it every more with point spread sports, where you
know the dinner between a winning a push could be
the dinner between profiting and not profiting. So you gotta
be careful, don't chase bad numbers.
Speaker 2: All right, Well, let's get started with NFL, and let's
take a look at some of these key numbers I
see tonight. I think we've kind of lost a key
number from the opening minus seven now the way up
to minus eight and a half.
Speaker 5: What else are you seeing on these big numbers.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's been it's been Philadelphia early.
Speaker 4: You expected that Super Bowl champs returning and they haven't
lost much at all. Dallas wise guys seeing them not
to make the playoffs this year, even though the betting
public was in love with the Dallas Cowboys before the
season kicked off. They were taking the plus money that
they will make it the playoffs. They were taking the
plus money on the overseason wins. So I wasn't surprised
to see this line climbing. More importantly, as I talked
about on bet on It yesterday, the books are going
to have to protect themselves from teasers.
Speaker 3: With this being a standalone.
Speaker 4: Game and so many Sunday NFL just sitting there right
for teasers rest ashore. Not only are recreational betters going
to start teasing, but you're gonna see a lot of
sharp betters teasing the Eagles because they fall under the
wung where you could go through three and seven.
Speaker 3: So I expected the books to get up to about
nine minus nine.
Speaker 4: I'm actually surprised there's not more nines across the board,
but the reason for that is because a couple eight
and a half were getting picked off last night. There
were some sharps that like the eight and a half
on the Dallas side. Now did they lay the six
and a half on the Eagles and work in the middle.
Speaker 3: Only they know.
Speaker 4: But that's the only reason we're not seeing nines across
the board is as the books were attempting to do
that yesterday to get some teaser protection, you started seeing
the eight and a half's get picked off at minus
one ten. That's why now you gotta pay minus one
fifteen to get that eight and a half or eight
at minus one ten. So interesting game tonight since it's
been sitting at that spread. It's good two way action,
So early Eagle money that's where the risk is. But
as of today, the tickets coming in good balance from
the public, good two way. The only thing that really
stands out is Eagles money line Eagles teaser. So if
the Eagles lose the game outright, it will set up
a huge sound day for the books because it already
wiped out so many live teasers. If the Eagles win
the game out right, there will be a ton of
live teasers going into Sunday's Action. Now tomorrow there's another
standalone game steam on the over forty four, over forty five.
You got the public and the Sharks on the same side.
Let's move on to Sunday.
Speaker 5: For you real quick, Johnny.
Speaker 2: I just want to point out tomorrow, guys, it's in Brazil.
Make sure you know that this is not a home
game for a certain team.
Speaker 5: This is in Brazil. We'll be careful, but with those
numbers and so just want to throw that out.
Speaker 4: Okay, Yeah, completely different different situation there. You're absolutely light
with the standalone on Friday Someday Action. Remember these games
have been out there a long time, so that means
you're gonna see good two way Wi Sky money. They're
betting numbers, not teams. So when the line moves too significantly,
especially off or on or through a key number, you're
gonna see some two way sharp money. But here's some
isolated NFL signs that multiple groups got down on the
four point fifty eight Indianapolis Colts.
Speaker 3: I love the Colts as well.
Speaker 4: Four point fifty for sixty forgive me Jacksonville minus two
and a half, minus three for sixty four, Cleveland plus
the six and over forty five, and that's on everybody
on Cincinnati there for sixty seven, Arizona minus four and
a half, all the way up to minus six, Detroit
Green Bay getting steamed under. Surprising they got out ahead
there because I expect the public to go over there,
But they went on forty nine and a half in
under forty eight, Houston and the Rams under forty six.
Then Sunday night Baltimore plus the deuce and the under
fifty three under fifty two, and then on Monday night,
no surprise, you're seeing Minnesota now flip the favorite. They
took Minnesota at plus one, they took Minnesota at pick them.
Now you're looking at Minnesota as the favorite going into Chicago.
But as I said, do not be surprised to see
some resistance, especially once the public gets involved. People make
the mistake that the public just doesn't get any respect,
and that might be true, but their money does, and
they outweigh sharp money.
Speaker 3: When it comes to the NFL.
Speaker 4: There is so much more public money being bet recreational
betters betting, so all that money is going to force
the books to have to move the line so they
could try to entice writing some action on the other side.
That's what gets the sharp betters involved. So you'll see
a lot of steam come in on game day Sunday
and we'll head in to kickoff in the steam room
for that for two hours leading up on Sunday afternoons.
Speaker 3: So a lot of fun ahead for us.
Speaker 5: Let's move to college football.
Speaker 2: There's somewhere in the neighborhood of a million million games,
and there's a lot of huge spreads. I mean there's
a forty there's a forty eight and a half, so
it's kind of you're kind of coming off of a
lot of marquee matchups last week and it's a little
bit of a settled, settled down this week.
Speaker 5: So how are we looking at attacking college football.
Speaker 4: Well, here's what you got to remember. This is kind
of week two. They call it, you know, zero week,
Week one, Week two. This is the biggest adjustment off
very little data.
Speaker 3: And here's what I mean. We only have.
Speaker 4: Sixty minutes of football, maybe one hundred and twenty minutes
of football for most of these teams, and there's nothing
but analysis on those two outcomes. So your garden starts
seeing an overreaction to that, a lot of recency bias.
So that's where you could take advantage of the college
football where a lot of conclusions have been drawn by
it's more on projecting than actual data reflecting it. So
that's the key going into week three that I'm seeing
a lot of from the sharp betters. They're taking advantage
of those teams where there's a lot of recency bias around.
Now here's what we're looking at for college football. Start
off Friday Primetime Action over fifty seven, over fifty eight,
James Madison, Louisville, move on to Saturday. Baylor plus four
plus three and a half plus three. They like Baylor Illinois,
but on the money line, multiple groups took Illinois up
to minus one fifty on the money line three forty six,
Navy minus nineteen and a half minus twenty three seventy
six Charlotte plus sixteen. That's down though, about two touchdowns
right now. I think three fifty six Cincinnati minus eighteen
all the way good to minus one twenty up to
minus twenty forgive me thinking baseball three eighty one Twain
minus ten. Here's a big one, Sam Houston three seventy one.
This is what happens here, Sam Houston minus ten plus ten.
Forgive me Sam Houston plus nine and a half. In
Houston plus nine plus eight and a half plus eight
on Sam Houston hit hit.
Speaker 3: Limit bit, limit bit, limitbit, limitbit. They skipped. This went
through the seven.
Speaker 4: Once the piggybackers got involbed went down the six and
a half, the same exact group that I took plus
ten on for my subscribers. Gave them out a four
percent play on Sam Houston plus ten. They did the same.
They came back yesterday and took Hawaii minus six and
a half. So we have Sam Houston plus ten in
Hawaii minus six and a half.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 4: I didn't send us a Hawaii side out to subscribers yet.
Not sure if I'm going to attempt the middle in
that game. Not a bad bet at all, Not a
bad attempt at all. It's actually a very plus ev
middle opportunity. If you did get the plus ten, I
urge you to do it. It's, you know, more or
less a free bet. Then Colorado three sixty two laid
the chalk twenty three and a half with Colorado four
oh five, UCLA minus to one and a half minus
the two, Oregon State steam three point fifty Oregon State.
We faded Oregon State last week. We're betting Oregon State
this week minus two minus two and a half. Mississippi
State three nine to eight plus seven. Be careful there.
I know the Sharps took the seven, but that is
one of the most one signed public dogs that I've
seen on Saturday, and the public is loving Mississippi State.
They are taking them on the money line thinking they
don't even need the seven points. That's why you're looking
at six and a half here. That wise guys got
involved yesterday. And then finally forty eleven San Diego State
plus the three. I know that's a lot of information,
but we got a lot of games and a lot
of opportunities I hope you guys do some damage with it.
Speaker 2: Well, what I didn't hear you mentioned was these huge numbers.
It doesn't sound like there's a lot of appetite for
minus thirty seven and a half minus forty four and
a half minus thirty seven and a half on some
of these monster spreads right now.
Speaker 4: Those are even you'll even see here in Vegas at
least they'll call them sir both games. So a circle
game means it's half limit, sometimes even less. So they
don't even want to mess with those because again, once
you get into those high of numbers, there's a lot
of variants in Bob. That's why we don't mess with
teasing college football, just because of the variants in scoring,
it's not profitable. And once you get up to those
thirty eights, like what should the line be? The difference
between two and a half and three and a half
is monstrous. The difference between forty two and a half
and forty three and a half seems meaningless to me.
That's the absolutely it's so hard to book those games.
Once you get into those thirties and forties, what is
each half point? Where almost nothing Once you get up
to those numbers where a half points worth so much
when you're talking about from minus one to minus six,
but once you get into minus twenties thirties, those half
points mean almost nothing.
Speaker 3: The worst is when I.
Speaker 4: Saw somebody, I saw somebody on the back end, they
bought a plus thirty and a half the plus thirty one,
like they felt more comfortab So they were saying, this
is what they concluded. They do values on thirty one
yet plus thirty and a half, okay, plus thirty and
a half minus one ten, So they concluded that there's
probably not a fifty three percent.
Speaker 3: Chance it goes over thirty and a half that they
cover the.
Speaker 4: Thirty and a half, but they're confident about almost fifty
five percent that they'll do it at with thirty one.
Speaker 3: So they're not confident they.
Speaker 4: There's not even a fifty three percent chance they'll cover
the thirty and a half, but they're fifty five fifty
six percent that they'll cover the thirty one. Like where
does again when people say games are fixed or or Vegas.
Speaker 3: Is, Vegas doesn't have to do nothing.
Speaker 4: All they have to do is open their doors and
let people go in and make bad bets. They don't
have to fix anything for what people are buying hos
on thirty and a half points spreads?
Speaker 3: What do you have to fix?
Speaker 2: Yeah, by that time the backups are in, Like you
think you can handicap a game with the starters.
Speaker 4: That's hard backup even so much better now with thirty
one than thirty and a half.
Speaker 3: Good for him?
Speaker 2: Oh too funny? All right, let's move to baseball. Very
limited card today makes sense. It's you know, it's NFL.
You know, debut debut here? What do we see it
on any lines?
Speaker 1: Here?
Speaker 4: Funny thing yesterday had a four percent play just one
baseball bet. It was the under in the Cleveland game
seven to nothing in like the second inning. I was like,
I was, ah, man, terrible bet. I look in the
ninth it's eight to one. Oh my god, this is
gonna actually push. And it ended up pushing for me.
Sometimes when you're running good like things like that happen
for you. When you're running cold, there's no change. They
would have scored that run in the bottom of the
ninth when it wasn't needed, you know.
Speaker 3: What I mean.
Speaker 4: Absolutely, they go eight straight innings without putting up a
single run to beat you.
Speaker 3: It's so crazy how that works?
Speaker 1: All right?
Speaker 4: Mlbat nine fifty four Pittsburgh plus one ten nine to
fifty six Tampa Bay minus one forty five in the
under eight and a half half there nine point fifty
eight over nine La Kansas City. I like that bet
and uh nine sixty one New York Yankees minus won
twenty five and at eight and a half they went under.
Oh yeah, it is that Tampa Cleveland game. I gave
you that because it looks like the it went from
eight to eight and a half. But they're hitting me
under at eight and a half there.
Speaker 5: All right?
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, you're so right like about about getting like
a miracle push. That's just the stuff that's running. But
when you're running cold, it just turns into a miracle loss.
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, never get.
Speaker 5: Those absolutely so real quick before I let you go.
How is Contender series? This week?
Speaker 3: I ended up losing a little bit. Up for the season,
still ended up losing a little bit.
Speaker 4: I hit my totals again, hit two out of three totals.
The one that I lost was that controversial one where
the ref didn't know whether it was it was an
illegal blow or not, didn't know whether to stop the
fight like that was a bottom call. It was a
little bit unlucky, but the signs I did not do well.
Here's the problem, and I'm not making any excuses, but
it just goes to prove it's so hard to beat
closing lines, and on that show, I'm forced to bet
into the absolute last numbers, and it's hard to do
because it's sometimes it's such a favorite type of show,
and I like the favorites when I leave the house,
but their minus three twenty five, and I get to
the apex and their minus five fifty and by the
time we're in the production meeting, their minus seven to fifty.
By the time we air their minus eleven Hunter, Like,
what do you do at that point? You can't get
out of minus eleven Hunter when it was minus three Hunter.
So you either sprinkle the dog and pray even though
you know it's the wrong side, or you get creative
that he does it in the first round, or does
it inside the distance, or it's a it's not an
easy racket, but it's a seat I know so many
would would love to have.
Speaker 3: So I'm not complaining. This isn't me bitching.
Speaker 4: It just goes to show you that it's very hard
to beat closing lines, like, it's really a tough racket.
Speaker 2: I lost on him going in the in the first one.
I'm pretty sure he was winning. That was the last,
the first four. The first big best bet I had.
We're we had four weeks Brother, four weeks Bro. And
and that was the first time I fired a best bet.
Speaker 3: It was on mcgwien. I felt so confident with that
sign to Bro.
Speaker 4: He looked apart that that that McMillan was over valued
for sure. How he didn't finish him in the first round,
I don't know how that choked it when he was
so sing, he just had it so sunk in. He gassed, Bro,
he gassed. We were on the right side. Bad outcome.
Nothing you can do.
Speaker 5: I agree, by the way.
Speaker 2: The good news on that fight, Johnny, is we get
to bet against that McMillan guy in the UFC.
Speaker 3: Oh, yeah, that guy.
Speaker 4: There, like, yeah, let's stand in trade blow See how
that works out, See how that turns out?
Speaker 5: Absolutely absolutely Well, it's big Thursday. What do you have
up for clients?
Speaker 3: I have a Thursday night NFL.
Speaker 4: We are kicking off the season with a four percent
best bet in the NFL. I have Saturday's College Football
up four percent. Best bets in there, and the package
is different than the subscription. The package so far has
eight bets in it. As I told subscribers, you're gonna
get BOLU, you're gonna get the added games, you're gonna
get the.
Speaker 3: First quarter stuff, the first half stuff.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna give you all the goal because again, I'm
working with so many good groups. I get so much
good information that I want handicappers. I don't just want
guys that are just gonna piggyback my stuff. Like come
in there ready to have your own opinions and then
let's confirm them together.
Speaker 3: So I have that up.
Speaker 4: I have the Sunday NFL up as well. The UFC
is going up today. I just fired two moves for
an originator that I work with. So a busy, busy
next few days. And of course the steam room is
Sunday two hours leading up the kick off. We're gonna
have a lot of fun, so make sure you join
me head on over towagetalk dot com and best of
luck to you too, brother. I hope you run hot
this weekend and do some damage in the UFC.
Speaker 2: It's gonna be great. And it's gonna be great. Thanks
Giohnny appreciated Johnny the Greek. Everyone with a massive, massive
Steam report, and he's gonna be here again tomorrow. Tomorrow,
guys is Football Friday. Absolutely loaded Fridays. We're gonna go
over Survivor contest, circa Westgate contest, circa We're gonna go
over all of them. Marko was gonna be breaking down games,
Teddy's gonna be breaking down games. We're gonna get the
final report of Steam before the weekend. It's going to
be a massive, massive day tomorrow on Football Friday. Quick question,
uh Mark Javonte to score anytime? Dak to score anytime?
Speaker 5: Bad idea?
Speaker 2: If I take both, If you're gonna take it this
week and it doesn't hit, just go back and take
it again. That's a strategy. You're gonna have to hit
multiple games in a row. So you're either gonna play
at one game and then the next game and then
the next game in the next game, or you're just
gonna lay off of it, but commit to doing that.
I'm not gonna make my card mark, but those are
my thoughts on it. Someone asked, do we do w NBA.
It's almost the end of the w NBA regular season.
These lines are all over the place. Some teams are quitting,
some teams are shutting down players. So I would recommend
not really doing a whole out with some of these SPREADSBA.
I'm looking at the numbers for today. There's really been
no movement, nothing of value. So don't really see anything
in w NBA. All right, let's bring on newest edition
two Wager Talk, the One, the Only, the Surprise.
Speaker 5: Joe Madden, Joe, is this the right Streamyard Lake? What
are you doing here? How did you end up here?
Speaker 6: I don't know how I ended up here, Amie. When
I'm really excited to be here. It's it's gonna be
a ride, that's for sure.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, we got a couple of new shows to talk about,
so we wanted to bring you on and so let's
talk about what you'll be doing here.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 6: Absolutely, So for Wager Talk, I'm going to be doing
a last Call now this week. It will run tonight
as well as Friday because we have the Friday game
in Brazil, but the regular schedule will be Monday and
Thursday night, kicking off at.
Speaker 7: Seven pm Eastern. For Last Call, making sure.
Speaker 6: You guys get those best of the numbers right before
we jump into the games and talk in the best
of the Numbers. Andy, We're seeing that total fly up
tonight for the football Hardroc just posted a forty eight
for that total.
Speaker 5: I love it. I love it.
Speaker 2: Any thoughts or anything you like on tonight's game or
tomorrow's game.
Speaker 6: Oh absolutely, there's a ton of stuff I'm liking for
tonight's game. I really don't feel like this game is
gonna go one of two ways, so I'm gonna stay
off of the spread. Either feel like the Eagles come
out and just blow out the Dallas Cowboys or the
Dallas Cowboys somehow pull off a miracle win here against
their divisional arrival. I don't want a side at all
in this one. I'm gonna look at the first half.
I do think looking at the first half total over
twenty four and a half, that number is still coming
in at plus one hundred is the.
Speaker 7: Right way to go because we're gonna see both of
these teams.
Speaker 6: I feel like come out of the gate nice and hot,
and I'm worried about the Eagles that they get up
really big in the first half, slowing down the clock
in the second, So I'll.
Speaker 7: Take the first half over twenty four and a half.
Speaker 6: I think in a winning or losing situation, Dak Prescott's
gonna go over his passing prop Now, I got it
yesterday and I got the worst of the number Andy
I got twenty or two forty eight and a half.
It's dropped to two forty four and a half as
lots of people expecting the defense here of the Eagles
to shut him down. But I'm gonna still stay with it.
You're gonna get a great number if you alter it
up to that original. And then I'm gonna take Dap
over one and a half passing touchdowns.
Speaker 7: I think A J.
Speaker 6: Brown will get in the end zone for the Eagles.
That's coming in up plus one fifty five. You can
look at his receptions. It's too highly juiced at minus
one forty for the over four and a half. And
then I'm gonna take Ferguson here for the touchdown for
the Cowboys. He's coming in up plus two ninety. We
know he's a prime target for Dak for those short
passes out there on the field.
Speaker 7: So Jake Ferguson touchdown plus two ninety.
Speaker 6: AJ Brown plus one fifty five for the touchdown, dap
over for his passing touchdowns of one and a half
as well as his passing yards and then that first half.
Speaker 5: I love it, Joe.
Speaker 2: What's great is I got a bunch of props here
and we didn't overlap any of them.
Speaker 5: Nice, it's amazing we're not on different sides, so that's
that's certainly a good thing.
Speaker 2: So all right, well one more time, tell everyone when
you're gonna be on, what time and what days of
the week.
Speaker 6: Yeah, absolutely, guys, So make sure you check out Last
Call with's myself on thursdays this week Friday, but regular
Monday and Thursday right before football kicks off at seven
pm Eastern.
Speaker 7: And tonight we're gonna.
Speaker 6: Have Andy Jumping on the show with Andrew McGinnis, so
make sure you do.
Speaker 1: Check it out.
Speaker 2: Absolutely absolutely, Joe. It's awesome to have you here. I've
been wanting to work with you for a long time.
Thank you so much for joining us. Don't forget to
check her out on Wager Talk Last Call. So surprise debut, Joe,
nice job. Thanks for bringing the props with you.
Speaker 7: Yeah, thanks for having me you guys. Let's make some
freaking money tonight.
Speaker 5: All right, we're gonna do that. I surprised you guys.
Speaker 2: You guys didn't know that was coming, and I left
out of the intro because I'm sneaky like that. All Right,
let's bring on Nick Parsons. And there's a couple of
things that we know. Nick is gonna be bringing away.
He's gonna be bringing in a dope jacket, He's probably
going to be bringing point. Probably, he's probably going to
be bringing points. So we wanted to get into We
wanted to get into one game and get a little
bit more specific on the breakdown. So we're going to
talk Kansas and Missouri. What's your breakdown on this game?
Speaker 8: Well, it's the border showdown here, and Kansas has some
good news Andy, because players like Dean Miller, DJ Graham,
Bryce and Canty they're all back in the mix here.
And so what that does, Andy, is it really gives
the Jayhawks some experienced and dangerous weapons for Jalen Daniels
to utilize. And I mean he's for sure one of
the biggest playmakers in the Big Twelve. Now, Missouri, it
does enter hot. It had a pretty good season last year.
It finished ten and three last year, it's already one
to oh this season. It destroyed Central Arkansas sixty one
to six last weekend. But Kansas it's already two and oh.
It's been unchallenged in either of those games. It thrashed
Fresno State thirty one to seven in Week zero and
then it hammered Wagner forty five to seven as a
forty six and a half point favorite last weekend. And
the history between these two teams, it shows that the
dog has done really well over the last fifteen meetings.
The underdog is ten and five against the spread and
it has eight outright upsets. Add to that that this
is Kansas's first regular season game versus an SEC opponent
since nineteen ninety eight, and so I really think that
the Jayhawks are going to be up for this moment.
And being a situational capper, I always look at the schedules,
even though it's early in the season, and I'll argue
that for sure that this one sets up better for Kansas.
It has a bye week next week. Missouri remains here
for a game against lightweight Sun Belt Louisiana. But I
mean Andy Jalen Daniels. He has all of the tools
to extend plays to keep drives alive, and I think
he will make Missouri uncomfortable here. And so I do
not see the Tigers rolling over the Jayhawks. Andy, So
I'm great the.
Speaker 5: Points, all right, love it.
Speaker 2: Of course you're taking the points, no brain, no brainer?
Speaker 5: All right.
Speaker 2: You told us last week you're doing several contests.
Speaker 5: So what your plan?
Speaker 2: Tell us about the contest. What's your plan going into
week one?
Speaker 1: Here?
Speaker 8: So we're in the Circum Millions the Betting Memo Show,
which is the show that I produce for Sports Memo.
Speaker 2: Guys.
Speaker 8: You can find me over at Sports Memo. I come
on every Thursday to wage to talk to talk about
some of the things that I'm doing on the Betting
Memo but also over at Sports Memos. Yeah, I've entered
the show, the actual show, the Betting Memo Show, into
both the Circum Millions and the Super Contest at the Westgate.
And so I'm actually going to finalize those picks today
and I'm going to share those picks on the show
on Saturday. Guys, So if you tune into the show
on Saturday, you will get all of my contest picks.
Speaker 5: All right, what do we have going over at Sports
Memo these days.
Speaker 8: So just we finish up the summer special there with
the with the five dollars Wednesdays, guys. But we do
have a a special going on right now for sixty
nine ninety nine for three day passes, all all inclusive
or flex passes, guys, so make sure to take advantage
of that. And then also fifty percent off Fridays, Andy,
So that's coming up tomorrow, guys. Every handicapper at sports
Memo releases one fifty percent off package and so head
on over there to take advantage of that.
Speaker 2: All right, Nick Parsons, thank you so much, great job
and can't wait to hear what you what you end
up going with in the contest. Thank you so much
and great job as always.
Speaker 8: Thanks Andy.
Speaker 2: All right, guys, moving along, let's get to Dave Mason.
But do want to tell everybody we have several specials up.
We're still doing these seven days of all access for
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Speaker 5: So go to the deal's page, pick your favorite handy
caapper and get that incidant discount. All right, let's bring
on Dave Mason.
Speaker 2: Dave, I'm guessing, uh, the busy season is officially here,
my friend.
Speaker 1: Yes, sir, the most important week of the year, in.
Speaker 9: My opinion, better bigger than the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1: Bigger than Wow, Kentucky Derby marsh Man, that's anything. It's
just the most important week of the year.
Speaker 9: A lot of those are just one off.
Speaker 1: You know. Super Bowls might get more track traction and
you great in a PR but a lot of one
and done. Come into the Super Bowl, they sign up,
they bet they never see him again. If they win,
they cash out by bye or maybe not until next season, and.
Speaker 9: You know, or people are just done for the year.
Speaker 1: But super Bowl kind of sets the tone for the
rest of the season. You know, NFL is our biggest sport,
our biggest market, So this sets the tone.
Speaker 5: All right, Well, walk us through. What games do you
see in action on?
Speaker 2: Well, we'll start with tonight, then we'll talk about Friday,
then we'll talk about Sunday.
Speaker 5: So what are we seeing in the Eagles and Cowboys tonight?
Speaker 9: Yeah, Eagles Cowboys.
Speaker 1: I mean, the public's all over the Birds. It's all
some two way sharp on it. Birds minus seven and
a half, and then yesterday went to nine and to
the little bit by back on the Cowboys plus nine.
As far as other sharp stuff, Daguires minus three, minus
one sixty outright as well, he's minus two and a
half early Rams minus three even in minus two and
a half. Dolphins, what are that? Under forty seven? Falcons
under forty eight? More sharp stuff will come in in
the next few days. It's limits go.
Speaker 5: Up, all right, Well, we we do.
Speaker 2: I don't know if we have the graphic ready. But
we tried to beat Dave Mason. So what's a game
or what's something that you guys are a little bit
worried about. How can the public or sharps beat beat
Dave Mason and bet online this week?
Speaker 1: Well we did well last weekend, but you know how
that works out. So I mean, yeah, I can just
tell you what the sharps you bet?
Speaker 9: I mean said NFL.
Speaker 1: I mean I'll give you my not so sharp bets
and see if you can beat me. I actually I
actually took Dallas plus nine yesterday even though I'm an
Eagles fan. Yes, yes, I bet against my team, So
go ahead and curse me out for Eagles fans whatever. Yeah,
I have always why always, always one of that who
bets against their team and who doesn't. Some people don't,
but I you know, they don't pay my bills.
Speaker 9: If I see value, I'll bet against them.
Speaker 1: Jets plus three I bet or that that was the
early Jaguars minus three, pass minus two and a half,
Falcons plus two, and Builds minus one.
Speaker 9: There pick them there now.
Speaker 1: So I got a bad number there, but those are
my place. That's some sharp NFL Northern Illinois plus seventeen,
Uva plus three types of state plus four and a
half to read the minus seven Houston minus thirteen, and
then of course there's a ton of total stuff as well.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think, I think, I think you're right to
bet against your time. I would bet against my team,
but from Indianapolis, I'm the Colts.
Speaker 5: We can't figure we can't figure out our quarterback. Yeah,
getting me.
Speaker 9: The way I see.
Speaker 1: If you're you know, it's there's different kind of things fans.
I just think their team does no wrong, right, But
if you're objective and you can see if your team's
overvalued or whatever, I mean why not. I mean, you
know it's people are like, oh, you're not a real fan, Like, well,
you know what, those guys don't pay my bills? You
know the number, if the numbers, all the numbers all,
I mean, you know, It's doesn't mean I'm not going
to root for them. If they win, okay, I lose
money if they lose, Okay, I won Money's I see
as a win win proposition here. I'm not betting my
house on it or anything. You know, better new Bucks
and see what happens.
Speaker 2: Well, myself and Dan are going to enter a bunch
of the Survivor pools on Bottle Online. Here are you
able to share percentages of what team? Because I think
everybody is. I think Denver is going to be the
most popular pick.
Speaker 5: Yeah on the board this week.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there might pick for the Survivor pools I'm in
as well. Let me let me bring that up. I
know they're the most popular.
Speaker 5: It makes sense. There's a lot of tough matchups this week.
Speaker 1: Yeah, matchups Eagle Tonight are getting picked. I would advise
against that though, because in our Survivor pal you have
to pick Thanksgiving. You know, there's two picks thanks to
the weekend. There's a Sunday Monday games, but there's also
Thursday and Friday, and they're looking forward. They're as of
now shore.
Speaker 9: Lock and change. But as of now, the Eagles.
Speaker 1: Would be the best pick for Thanksgiving Day and and
and Black Friday. So I would, I would that would
pick it. I would. I would keep them on the
back burner. Now you might need them before that, but
it's good that you know you got you gotta look
at that now. You know you have to look forward,
and especially with something like that. Cardinals. Cardinals are popular
pick you know, I would stay away from roadshow week one.
Who else is getting picked? Washington, Washington getting picked, but
Denver is by far the top pick.
Speaker 9: And I'm on Denver too with my Survivor bars.
Speaker 2: Hey, I guess Arizona, Cincinnati, maybe probably some people dipping
their toes into.
Speaker 1: The Yeah, I just try to stay away from, you know,
road teams this early. You know, later in the season
might have take some roadtines. But week one you got
thirty two teams you can pick from, and why would
you take Rachel?
Speaker 9: You know, that's that's just my theory.
Speaker 2: But yeah, road teams with horrific defense is always always
a bad idea in in Survivor Survivor pools.
Speaker 5: So how about how are entries looking for that one?
Speaker 9: Good man?
Speaker 3: We're head of pace it last year.
Speaker 1: I mean, there's gonna be an overlay, and I'm ninety
five percent gonna be an overlay.
Speaker 9: And when we put one million dollars on the line
in our meetings a few months ago, we knew there
was gonna be an overlay.
Speaker 1: You know, we keep it, we keep it affordable thirty
dollars entry, So I mean that's a lot of entry
to get that million dollars, so we know, I mean,
there's a ton of entries, right, but we keep it affordable.
You know. We could raise the limits or raise the
entry and probably get to that one million, but we
want as many people to join as possible. We want
to keep it, you know, for the common guy, the
guy the twenty five dollars better. We got a ton
of them, so we want those guys to be able
to plan into it themselves as well. But we have
an overlay of about we're halfway there. My prediction will
get between like seven fifty and eight fifty, So I
think there's going to be a between his hundred and
fifty thousand to two hundred and fifty thousand dollars overlay.
Speaker 3: The spread survivor.
Speaker 1: First time we've done it.
Speaker 9: We we put the.
Speaker 1: Prize pool low because of that.
Speaker 9: We put it one hundred.
Speaker 1: Thousand dollars and we pass one hundred thousand two days ago.
I haven't looked at numbers today, but as yesterday we
had one hundred and thirteen six thousand coming in and
there's no oh.
Speaker 9: There's no rates there. So every dollar week.
Speaker 1: Collect is going to go to the prize pool. So
we could get I don't know. I don't know. Again,
first time we've done it, so I can't really predict.
Speaker 9: But I've said we should get.
Speaker 1: Over one hundred and fifty thousand easily, maybe two hundred
thousand and that one and that's only twenty ventry.
Speaker 9: That one's only twenty.
Speaker 1: Dollars enter, and again you can enter numerous times for
a discount. Is like a big survivor.
Speaker 5: So what's here's a moral question for you? How many
is too many entries? Do you do? You think you
should just give it?
Speaker 2: Like because my buddies do this March Badness pool and
you can enter like multiple brackets, which I think is
it's a bullshit. And you get one bracket, you get
a bracket. You're in a pool, you.
Speaker 5: Get a bracket. Survivors a little different. How many is
too many?
Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean everybody has the opportunity to
buy in.
Speaker 9: We keep it cheap, you know, we keep.
Speaker 1: It cheap to any anybody can buy in for the
whole lot for me, and it's short increase of your advantage.
But still you need to go to that whole season
eighteen and New Old. You can't even push a damn game,
you know, there can't you need a while. So it's
still even if you can buy a twint if i've
it's still extremely defful difficult to increase your odds. Sure,
but everybody had the same And if we didn't do
it that way, then it's either okay, the prize, the
prize polls a lot less because we're just letting people
buying for thirty dollars at least one time. I mean,
the price was going to be fifty thousand dollars or something.
That's not going to be that attractive, or we raised
or we raised the buy in do whatever, five hundred
dollars or whatever, and the common guy.
Speaker 9: This isn't gonna be able to enter.
Speaker 1: So you know, there's a pros and constant every way
which we do it. We've been doing it this way
for years. I mean I've been in I've been doing
these survivor contests for online books since where we're going
to bet online back in two thousand and nine to
work with mentioning names. But that's what we thought was
kind of my thing is like, oh elementary, it's down
as you go up.
Speaker 10: It's worked, you know, Like we had the Mega Contest
too two thousand contest, and we we played around with
sorts of thing buy into to fifty, buying one hundred,
buying for one hundred.
Speaker 1: And yet yet and none of them really ever got
a lot of what we wanted. So we're like, you know, what,
the hell with it making a two hundred thousand dollars
a lot of weekly prizes. I think fifty thousand goes
to the year employes. It's free to enter, you just
the betun of season to get prizing. So we say
that works with us buying Mega Contest or Super Contest
or whatever other books called for other books, and that's great,
So we do what works for us.
Speaker 5: I love it. I love it. Tell averone wherehere you
can find you at.
Speaker 1: YEP on Twitter at Dave Mason, b o L and
the Mind dot A. We had some of the earliest
opening odds, the Big Limits three, Big Fertionality, a lot
of props coming on to bet online dot A, Jesus Season.
Speaker 10: You can enter the Survivor contest, both of them until
Monday night, dilly dally so.
Speaker 3: But of course Monday night, but don't but we always get.
Speaker 1: Some uh you know, lagon by that last day. But
we'll get up to the seven.
Speaker 2: Let's see all right, Dave Mason, thank you so much
for joining us, and go check them out on Twitter
and go join.
Speaker 5: Bet online dot ag. I've been using them.
Speaker 2: Uh myself for years. Great deposits, great withdraws. So I
just I just put some money in there for for
myself and Dan to do the uh to do the
Survivor use Crypto And it was in there in like
ten minutes.
Speaker 5: So a really really good book to use. So all right,
let's go all around the world.
Speaker 2: We got some free plays in a multitude of sports.
I mean we we Legit are going all around the world,
uh in this segment. So we're gonna go to the
main event this weekend in UFC. Kyle Barallo and Nazardine Imovov.
I Likeile Barrollo money line. I have been betting on
this guy since Contender series. He's got an incredible double
leg takedown, incredible ground game. He runs literally the smartest
gym in terms of game plans, and I'm just not
sure that Imovov has all the weapons to take him
out of there. He's improved his striking immensely. It's not elite,
but he won a five round fight against Jared Kannaneer
and Imovov was losing to Cananeir before they got into
round four, so it's a very reasonable price minus won
twenty five. I've been around, I've I've been all aboard
the Kyle Barrallo.
Speaker 5: Train up until this point.
Speaker 2: I'm not jumping off yet, so Kyle Barrello is a
pick there free play from the wager Talk Free picks page.
Euro World Cup Qualifiers. Wales at Kazakhstan. We're tak Kazakhstan
plus one. Wales have only won one away match by
more than one in the last sixteen games. Wales beat
this team three to one, but that was at home
last time. Looked for Wales to maybe win, but not
my margin. And we'll take a look at Bay at
SMU Baylor over thirty and a half on the team total,
Baylor threw for four hundred and eighteen yards last week.
They gave up over five yards per carry, but this
SMU team only rushed for one hundred and forty yards
against Eastern Texas A and M. We think Baylor is
gonna be able to get a few stops in the
passing offense for Baylor will make this a back and
forth shootout.
Speaker 5: It's a high total. In this one.
Speaker 2: We like Baylor over thirty and a half. Then we
go to the Buccaneers at the Falcons. Buccaneers over twenty
three and a half on the team total. Last year,
the matchups between these two teams featured sixty six and
fifty seven points. Bucks were seven and one over this
team total in eight road games. Falcons still do not
have a good pass rush. Baker is gonna have time
to throw. Bucky Irvin should flourish. Tampa not a great secondary,
so I'm expecting another big shootout here in this one.
So we'll take the Buccaneers over twenty three and a half.
I have a five percent best bet that's up in UFC.
You can still get that. Lines are perfectly good to
lock that in. We're gonna have multi well plays attached
to that five percent play five percent. MMA plays have
been good eleven and six. I'd be very happy with
that winning percentage at the end of the year, So.
Speaker 5: We look to cash one. This week.
Speaker 2: We lost our Tuesday Contender series five dollars play. I'm
upset about that. We get our revenge this weekend. We
also have a week one of NFL Props that are up.
You guys know, I love me some props, and we're
up thirty units just in twenty twenty five on player props.
So you're gonna get all of the props that are
included from starting tonight all the way through Monday Night Football.
It's a smoking deal, I believe. Duffel asked earlier, how
many do we get? We gotta wait until the numbers
get finalized, and we gotta wait until the more props
get released. So you're gonna get props starting today, but
there's gonna be more. They get added to that pack
throughout the weekend, so expect them all the way up
to game time, even through Sunday and Monday Night Football.
Only nineteen bucks. If you want something more long term,
we still have the promo code Andy thirty gets fifty
percent off thirty days.
Speaker 5: That way you don't even have to worry about it.
Speaker 2: All plays get sent right to your email for the
next thirty days. Fifty percent off, all props, all five
percent plays, WT Dot Buzz slash al All right, we're
gonna break down the Cowboys and the Eagles from a
pro perspective, and there are a ton of them. I'm
gonna start with Dak Prescott to throw an interception. This
offensive line is ranked outside the top twenty by PFF.
They could see a lot of pressure from that Eagles defense.
Dak through eight interceptions in eight games last season. Eagles
had thirteen interceptions last year. That defensive line pushes Dac
out of the pocket. Look for him to force the ball.
I'm not a believer in this Dallas running game. I
think Dak throws a lot and eventually throws at least
one interception. We're gonna go to Dan's favorite. Jalen Hurts
will score a touchdown. Rushed for fourteen last year, two
of them against Dallas in the one game he played.
And we've talked about this, the extra motivation for them
to use the Toush push after the NFL tried to
sneakily ban this play. I expect this will be a
play pretty much every week. Jalen Hurts will score a touchdown.
I'm gonna go to Dallas here and take Javonte Williams
over twelve and a half receiving yards. I know he's
with a different team, but he went over in nine
games last season.
Speaker 5: Looked up all the local reports.
Speaker 2: He is the unquestioned number one running back here, so
he's gonna be getting a majority of the carries. All
this takes as a couple dump offs or screens or
broken plays.
Speaker 5: This is a very low total.
Speaker 2: He's shown he can catch the ball, So I'll take
Javonte Williams over twelve and a half receiving and if
they get in a hurry up at the end of
the first half or at the end of the game,
I expect him to be on the field and for
this to cash. Let's do Saquon. Actually, let's do a
same game parlay. Let's do a plus one seventy same
game parlay. I'm gonna take the Eagles over twenty three
and a half on their team total. They averaged twenty
nine points per game last year. This Dallas defense with
no Micah Parsons could get carved up big time. I'm
gonna take Saquon eighty plus rushing yards. He did this
thirteen times last year, average five point one yards per
carry against Dallas and Aldo Ceedee Lamb sixty plus receiving yards.
Last five games he's played with Dak and they played
against Philly, He's gone over this total. So you combine
all those three. That gets you plus one seventy. That's
Eagles over twenty three and a half on the team
total Saquon eighty plus rushing Ceedee Lamb sixty plus receiving
plus one seventy. All right, thanks guys for joining us,
telling you get ready for tomorrow jam Pack Show. We're
gonna get you ready for the weekend, but it all
starts tonight with Thursday Night Football. To make sure you're
locked and loaded, make sure we're betting responsibly, and make
sure you're here tomorrow, same time, same place, and please
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Speaker 8: Now.
Speaker 2: We got football season and a million breakdown videos on
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if you hit that bell, you get notified when all
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Speaker 5: Thanks very much for joining us, Happy Thursday. Can't wait
to do it again on Football Friday tomorrow. Good luck
on your place. Take care