Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Hockey Life, presented by fan Tracks. Here
shit Qus, your source of information and analysis to help
you win your fantasy hockey league.
Speaker 2: Block off hot a step hit on, Staylock.
Speaker 3: Here's your hosts, Jesse Severe and Victor Nuno gonnes.
Speaker 4: See Hockey Live back once again, living in the moment,
Living in the moment of world. Junior's dominance is myself
Fan Tracks is Jesse Severe and that there Victor Nunio
of ep ringk side.
Speaker 5: How you doing, Victor, I'm doing pretty well, Jesse twenty
twenty five, welcome me with a pretty lingering cold from Christmas.
So I'm struggling over here, but I sound better than
I did on the last podcast with Pete, so I
think my voice manned trying to recover.
Speaker 4: Go back and listen to this week's Gaber Prospects Report, folks,
if you want to hear Victor gutting through it. It
was I always make reference to the Michael Jordan flu game,
but never was it more appropriate than Victor carrying himself
pure will. But yeah, Victor, No, you're sounding good, buddy,
and you're back and ready to roll into the new year.
You were flying down hill, skiing the other day, right.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that was the flu day was actually the two
days I had to ski. It was like the two
days that I had outlined, and I felt horrible. I
definitely would not have skied if I hadn't outlined those days,
but I ended up feeling pretty It was fun, but yeah,
I definitely crashed afterwards and finally.
Speaker 3: Got some rest. So yeah, it was a good time.
It was beautiful out there.
Speaker 5: One day was really snowy, the other day was really clear,
so it was good to get a little bit of both,
but good to get out there and do something different.
Speaker 4: We got the polar vortex here in Wisconsin, but all
the snow melted right before it and ain't many hills,
so there are places to ski in Wisconsin, but they're
not nearby. There's a sledding hill by my house, so
there's always people out there sledding, But right now it's
just frozen grass. This is the frozen tundra of lambeau
Field weather that we got here. So it's yeah, it's
zero degrees outside today and it's that type of deal
where pretty much it's going to be too cold to
have clouds. Do you ever get that in California? Victor,
too cold for clouds is just a beautiful blue sky
because it's too cold for any kind of moisture to
gather up above you.
Speaker 5: I don't think it happens the same way here, at
least maybe in the central California.
Speaker 3: But on the coast that's always foggy.
Speaker 4: Oh man, all right, enough of this dilly dallying. The
Fantasy Hockey Life Weather Report, which is a traditional opening
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good time. And I know occasionally Victor will come in
and say, hey, you got any ideas for articles. I
might put in some stuff for once in a while,
but mostly when we have votes on trades going on.
Sometimes some of that is in other things that Victor's
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Life on X and Victor Nunno twelfth on X and Victor,
you have other goodies that you'd like to offer brand
New Year's gifts that you'd like to offer certain of
our listeners.
Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely.
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Speaker 4: And we will come back right after this for picture
in me running alone into this.
Speaker 2: Episode back in today, it's just Victor and I and
we're talking midseason strategy.
Speaker 4: And for this we start with a couple of questions
and then we're gonna have a little game, a little
segment in the second half of the show. But we
put out the call, like we said in the discord,
and a couple of people put in some ideas, some
questions for us. And the first one is simple Victor.
It's from Scott the Tour and he says, if trading
win Now players to contenders like Sherwood and Severson are
a couple that he has to unload. How does asking
price change as you approach the deadline? What do you
think Victor.
Speaker 5: Yeah, this is a great question, and I think it's
a bit of a game of chicken, right. You have
your guys, you want to sell the other guy the
contenders have they want to push their chips in and win,
and so there's a bit of a timing sometimes as
a contender, you want to make sure or that you
are in the right place, that you have, that you
are sure you can compete, that you can try to win,
and they're usually maybe waiting for the right time for
that to happen. Sometimes it might be early. Sometimes they
you know, might be a few weeks out from playoffs.
As a rebuilding team, I think the biggest thing to
remember is that you don't have to do anything. You
have these assets. A lot of times those assets are fine,
you know. I remember I joined a twenty league team
several years ago and I had Macar and Kutrov and
Caprice off that I drafted thinking that I was going
to be better initially, and I just wasn't and I'd
had to retool. And people kept coming to me saying,
I'll give you like these this first round pick, or
these two first round picks for Kutrov or something, and
these are contenders that are going to be like picks
in the twenties, and was like, no, you just.
Speaker 3: To remember that you don't have to do anything.
Speaker 5: You don't have to trade these good guys, especially guys
like that Koutrov caprisof several years ago. You knew they
were going to be good for years. There's no reason
to do anything. You can wait. You can even wait
till the end of the season. The contending teams are
the ones that really have to push the envelope here.
They should be competing for these assets, and so you
really should just wait and put them against each other
as much as you can and just hold out for
the price that you think is right. Sometimes you have guys,
I know he mentioned Surewood. There's other guys who maybe
are on hot streaks and you can wait. Sorry, you
may not be able to wait because they might be
cooking a little hot and you might feel like you
have to move them.
Speaker 3: And in that case it is hard to gauge. He
for sure Wood, He's.
Speaker 5: Continued a little bit, but he's someone who the questions
are like, is he really this good?
Speaker 3: It's hard to say.
Speaker 5: And so you might actually on guys like that want
to pull the trigger a little bit early. But then
I can think of other examples like Alexi Protas right,
like he was cooking a little hot at the end of.
Speaker 3: The season, and he's still going. He's still good.
Speaker 5: And so that's an example of maybe you should just
hold wait till you.
Speaker 3: Get what you think you should get.
Speaker 5: And I think that's what it comes down to, is
that you should decide on the price that you think
is right. And I know Scott in this example and
in others, has asked me. He's a patron, and so
you can ask, like what is an appropriate price? And
I'll give you an idea, and you can ask in
the discord, you can ask other people, but get a
gauge of what you think is a good price and
just stick to that.
Speaker 3: I know, Jesse, you're really good at this.
Speaker 5: You decide what you think is fair and you're just
not going to change your mind until you get what
you want.
Speaker 3: Is that right?
Speaker 4: I appreciate that victory. That is right. I have a
lot of thoughts on this whole situation, and really depends
on the age and quality guys. I can get back
in the situation I'm expecting to be in next year.
You've got to be very realistic at this point the season,
when your next competitive team is going to be and
where your players are going to be when you get there.
And there is the thing is you think I'm going
to sell high on Sherwood and I'm going to sell
high on Sieverson. But in a league like the Tidy,
for example, where it's a key forever, you are playing
with people who probably aren't going to get sucked into
these things the same way you would hope that some
teams are going to want to pay for something. And
there's a lot of times when, like with a Sherwood
or a Severson, there's one scenario you turn him into
a protash. Yeah, if you can get a protash and
you can buy high on him, I did it frankly
in our home league last week, and I paid up
for him because when people are always going to say
it's because I'm a Caps fan, but no, I've been
watching him. This guy's legit. He's going to keep on.
I don't think this guy's a flash in the pan.
I think this is a guy who's figured it out.
And even though for such a big, bulky guy, he
doesn't throw a lot of hits, he is a great
kind of Nephork guy, and he's really fitting into that offense.
And I just think he's going to be high quality.
And he's very young. That's exactly what you want. Journeyman
twenty nine years old. This is really only his second
year getting full time stuff. Sure he would be a
nice sell high. Everybody knows it. Everybody in your league
is gonna know that. Surewood would be a is probably
not a guy who's going to sustain. So there I
tend to find. We always talk every podcast, every fantasy
podcast talks about, yeah, sell high on these guys, get
rid of them before their value follows. I don't know
who these people are playing with. The tidy managers, the
people we have around on the tight they're not going
to buy into that. You're not gonna get much at all.
For guys like Sherwood. If you can get something, there's
a level. Okay, So here's where I'm going with this.
There's a level of unsustainable. There's a level of turning
a waiver wire guy into any kind of asset that
you can carry forward. That I'm pretty much always willing
to do. But there are other guys who you have
to figure out where you're going to sell, and when
you're going to sell. Look, what I find is the
psychology is not there for getting a very good price
like that. If there's a situation now, it's completely different
in like a salary or a keeper league. All right,
that's a completely different situation where you can only keep
so many players, I'm sorry, or a contract league where
you can only keep players for so many years. If
you have a guy who's expiring for this year, you
literally are going to have nothing at the end of
the year, in which case, exp your valued return can
be much lower. Anything that is going to be something
for you next year is literally worth more than nothing.
But I am like I said, Let's say I'm in
a situation where I'm not competing and I have a
guy whose contract is expiring, or I have a guy
who I'm not going to keep for next year. There's
no way Surewood is not going to be on a
keeper list. If I'm in something like that, then I
know I'm in a situation where I'm about to lose
this guy for nothing. But so do the sharks out there.
They're going to act like they've got leverage. My least
favorite thing to see in a trade offer is you
have to trade this guy. But you have to trade him, No,
I don't. I'm going to be difficult just because you
said that. Man, I'm going to be a jerk just
because you said that, I don't have to do anything.
I remember there was an NHL GM and I really
wish I could remember the scenario, but it were coming
up in the trade line. I kind of swore it
was like Pittsburgh or I can't remember what team it was,
but they were coming up on the trade deadline. It
was the guy whose contract was going to expire, he's
going to become a free agent, and everybody was talking
about this GM's got to trade this guy. And in
the end, the GM just didn't. And he said, nobody's
going to give me everything, anything at all. And so
I'm not going to just fold. I'm going to show
people for next time that I'm willing to I'm building
up leverage for myself by proving I will do I
will just hold this guy if you're going to totally
low ball me for this league. So you get that
reputation as a manager that people can't get stuff from
you for free, you have to be willing to take
your ball and go home. The other piece of this
that I think is worth talking about here is the
only trade you're going to be able to get is
a trade from somebody who's willing to make it with you,
if that makes sense. It's not that what is this
guy worth, it's what partner is going to trade for
them and what assets do they happen to have that
is really important in the severe storms, the FHL original dynasty,
the two dynasties that we have. I traded I believe
it was Alex Ovechkin last year. I knew I wasn't
going to compete this year. There's a chance to me
that after this year or next year, well, Vechkin's not
in the NHL anymore, so he really does become something
who's as of last year. I traded him last year.
His value is going to decline, and it is going
to be he is not going to be a contributor
to my next successful team. And his value was never
going to be greater than it was last year, because
he obviously had last year, by definition, has more years
left in the NHL than he ever will at another time,
and I traded him for everything I could get. The
problem is the people who are willing to buy on
expensive older guys are the winning teams, And like you
said before with the Kucharov deal you were offered, they
are going to have the worst picks. Sometimes you're gonna
get lucky. Maybe one of them has a lottery pick.
They're gonna hold onto it like it's their baby. They're
not gonna be willing to part with it. But it's like,
the teams that I would like to target in a
league are the ones that are overperforming and are hoping
to scrap their way into a playoff berth. But legitimately
they could end up in the middle of the league.
Maybe they're they've just gotten lucky in the head to
head format, or they've had a lot of guys who've
run hot early in the season, and I look at
their roster and I'm like, yeah, that's not going to
keep up. That's really all things mean equal the trade
partner you want. The very top teams in the league
are often very depleted in their prospect pool. It's not
often they're gonna have future assets. If they did, they
probably wouldn't have a great pro roster because they've already
done some of those things. So it's very difficult I
know I'm talking all around this, Victor, but this is
a very flush topic to me because we're really we're
talking this is the Dynasty game in a nutshell. How
do you figure out a way to sell these is
just one part of this, this whole thing. Any thoughts
about this word salad that I just threw out here.
Speaker 5: I think the biggest thing is, like you said, no,
you don't have to do anything, you really don't.
Speaker 3: I hear that so much.
Speaker 5: Oh, these guys aren't going to be helpful for me
in my windows, so I have to And it's like
this urgency and it's no. First of all, like you said,
take stock of when you're going to be good and
decide if that player is going to be helpful. But
you don't have to get rid of them today if
you decide that he's not going to be helpful for
you in your windows.
Speaker 3: Sometimes think about the timing.
Speaker 5: I think that's one of the biggest things is don't
just think about your situation, think about everyone else's situation.
When is the timing best for that player to be moved?
Is it often I hear this at the beginning of
the season or before the Christmas break, or think about
when it's best. Oftentimes those teams that are pushing their
chips in do so now or in the next month
or two, right, and so it's best to wait until
this time of the year, the fantasy season to get
that offer that you want. If you would have traded
one of those players in you know, like October, you
might not have gotten the best deal because that team
may not have known that they were going to be
that competitive or or if they're going to The biggest
thing though, is if you think you're getting the right price,
then I don't think it's ever bad to make that deal.
Some people have wonky ideas of what the right price is,
and we can have discussions about that, but really think
about what the best appropriate price is. And we'll talk
about this a little bit more later, but definitely be
careful to get just magic beings for a star player.
Speaker 4: And one other thing on this ficture if you're trading
with a win now team. If you're trading with win
now team, always get picks further out for them. If
you can get picks four years from now from them,
get it. We're playing the long game here in dynasty,
and if you have a team that's topping out now
and in two years, all these old guys are gonna
go downhill. They might have a good draft pick in
four years, and that's where I want. I don't care.
I hope everything's still going in four years. But what
are you gonna do?
Speaker 3: Yeah? Definitely, here's the next one.
Speaker 5: Which type of prospects do you try to bundle to
obtain higher end prospects or young NHLs?
Speaker 3: And how do you do it?
Speaker 4: Yeah? This is hard because nobody trusts a multi for
one offer, and nobody trusts it. It goes against everybody's
fantasy instincts to say you're trying to trade me three
guys for one, because it almost always seems like a
bad deal. What I've run into, for a scenario in
multiple of my leaks is I've gone into the phase
where I try to acquire a whole bunch of players,
and suddenly I realized that my whole minor system is full.
Maybe some guys who are still in the minors are
on my active roster, and I've got a bunch of
draft picks coming up. What the heck am I going
to do? This happened in our home league, and that's
why I propose a I'm going to propose a five phase,
and I'm gonna flash this at more as we get
over I started. I said two phases in my notes,
but it's a multi phase process. The first phase of
a build up is just acquire talent, just whatever talent.
I don't care what the position is, I don't care
what the I just want the best players available. If
it's five centers and I don't have any goalies yet, fine,
because I can deal with that later. And then the
second phase of the process, once you've acquired that talent,
is trying to Winnow this down. That's what you're talking
about here, And I think my thing is, I don't
think you're very often going to be able to trade
a bunch of mid players for one great player unless
you get a team that really it's a very deep
league and you get a team that maybe doesn't value
that player. I feel like you have to get a
couple of players for one who's not that much better,
or two guys that are maybe perceived as an even swap,
but you think his guy is better than your guy,
and maybe you can throw in a lower asset to
get it. So it's almost like you're almost making a
lateral move. But you're using your depth of prospects to
try to grease the wheels with more of a long
shot guy, especially for a team that doesn't have a
whole lot of prospect depth. For example, I'm trying to
think what if it was what was the what was
the actual trade victor between the Jets, and it was
Brandon Yeager and Wrecker McGarty that went in the preseason
in the real NHL, if some people might have viewed
those as relatively even sides even in fantasy. I think
at that time I liked Recker McGarty better. I'm not
sure whether I would today. Maybe you would trade Yeager
plus a depth goalie Ar tur Akimov from the Maple
Leafs to get McGarty at that time. Is that a
deal you could have got done? Maybe? And that's where
you're looking at two guys maybe who are a little
bit more of a coin toss, but you're winning down
your prospects by doing that. The other thing I'm trying
to do in phase two, after I get talent acquisition,
then I'm starting to focus on position weaknesses. If I
don't have defenseman coming up, I know that's not good.
I want to get a good defenseman. I want to
get a goalie who's actually going to have a shot
at having something, because I probably usually you end up
acquiring forwards or maybe goalies in an early stage and
then you're trying to winnle those things down. So those
are some things I'm looking at when I'm trying to
bundle the prospects and get myself concentrated a little bit
more of that. I think this is one of the
very difficult thing to do when you're dealing with savvy gms,
is to get a better prospect for lesser prospects. Victor,
what do you think.
Speaker 5: Yeah, certainly the quality of the teammates makes a huge
difference in doing this, And I think this is where
you think about what kind of league you're in. Certainly,
if you're in like a buddies league and they don't
they're casual, you can rip people off. And if they're
your buddies and they're going to be in the league
no matter what, then I guess that's one thing. But
I always try to have this be a bit of
a win. But I always this is how I think
of it. I think of prospects on a scale of
one to ten, and that's how I set up my ranks.
Five is an average roster player on your dynasty when
you're in your competitive window, basically replacement level, a guy
that you could probably find in your on waivers, and
of course cap and category situation that might change a
little bit. A ten is someone who never comes off
your bench. Conor McDavid, Austin, Matthews, Croll, Caprice off Kutrov,
Guys like that Cail mccarr and six, seven, eight, nine
is in between there. Six is just about average, seven
is pretty good, eight is really good, and nine.
Speaker 3: Is just below that superstar level.
Speaker 5: So in general, if you can bundle two sevens for
an eight, it's probably worth it that roster consolidation of
having one better player that taking up a one roster
spot instead of two. Certainly, if you could trade like
two fives for seven or an eight, that would be amazing.
That's less likely. Sometimes you have to give to get
a little right, and so that's something to think about
whenever you're doing a two for one. I would always
suggest making two for two. If you want one guy
who's clearly better, offer two guys that are a little
bit worse and then ask for one guy back who's
clearly worse, and so that might make it seem a
little bit more fair, and then you can try to
fill in the gap there or negotiate to something that
seems more reasonable. All of these ranks and everything is
league dependent. You really need to know your league. You
need to know your league and your league mates. You
need to know where your team is, where the other
teams are positioned, all of that, all of that needs
to be clearly understood. What the categories are, what categories
you're doing well in, what categories or points that you
need to beef up. So that needs to come from
a place of clear understanding, like where you are in
the league, are you a middle team bottom? And what
categories you're good at? And do you have a legitimate
chance all these kinds of things. So you have to
take into account project ability, which my ranks do. I
like the percent right, So for a seven is not
just a seven. A seven point ninety nine is essentially
a lock to be a decent amount above average player
on your team. If it's a seven point one to oh,
that's a ten percent chance of hitting their upside. So
that means someone who's pretty unlikely has upside but is
unlikely to hit it. Sometimes you need to take a
guy who's a little bit more secure to make it
for a makeup for a guy with upside that doesn't
have much chance. And sometimes you might want to do
the opposite. You might want guy with a big upside
for a guy who has a secure floor. It really depends.
You really want a blend of these two things. You
don't want too many guys that are just all upside
and no chance of actually hitting it. Imagine if you
had a roster or minors roster full of Ryan Murkley's
that would not have worked out so well for you.
Huge potential but boombust as opposed to guys who have
a super high floor but maybe aren't as don't have
the huge upside like an own Power might be a
good example of that. You could tell right away he
was going to be an NHL or but what's the upside?
Maybe not as high. So you need a blend of
those guys. And so you have to look at your
team too and say, do I have a bunch of
boom bust guys and I need some more security guys
that are actually going to be playing on my team
in a few years, or do you want or do
you have a whole bunch of guys that are just
high floor, secure guys and maybe you need to trade
one or two of those to get some more upside.
You need a blend because you can't just have all
of everything. You need to expect that some of your
guys are going to bust out. But if you have
all high floor guys, then you're going to all those
guys are going to make your roster and you're going
to be just very average. That's not going to be
very helpful either. You need a blend of that. And
you know, you really have to know your league. I
think that's the key. You need to know your team
and your settings and be able to rank these So
if you're not good at ranking them yourself, then you
can use things something like my ranks or get it,
you can use your league setting to rank things.
Speaker 3: But for prospects, that's where I.
Speaker 5: Think it really gets hard, is that it's not always
so easy to rank what someone is going to be,
and that's what I try to do in my ranks.
Speaker 3: Any thoughts on that, Jesse, Yeah.
Speaker 4: This is a fascinating thing and I hope It's something
that people really understand with the puckstud ranks as they're
looking at if you have access to Victor's FHL or
Victor's ranking stuff this business. That a seven point one
and a seven point nine in some sense are both
projected to be a seven, like I said, but the
difference with those decimals is not that one player is
going to have more performance the other. It's that there's
a greater likelihood that they achieve the seven level of performance. Right,
And one thing I've that might be worth explaining for people.
So like you talk about a seven point nine versus
a seven point one seven point nine as a ninety
percent chance of meeting the seven. A seven point one
has a ten percent chance of meeting that, but is
probably more likely to end up a six or a
five or something like that. They're a boombust or maybe
nothing at all. Maybe they've got that high upside, but
they could fall off. How likely is a seven point
nine to end up being an eight, for example, to
overachieve that level or is it just that a seven
point nine is the owen power who's not going to
end up Erasmus Dollin, He's not going to end up
a superstar type defenseman. He's just going to be a
real solid contributor, but he just doesn't have the upside.
It's a seven point nine, in other words, less likely
to become an eight in some ways than even a
guy who might have a lower percentage.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's a good question, and I think that's that's
where I really try to think hard about this, because
it's not always so easy. I try to think about
the player and whoever, if they are really likely to
be that seventy ish point player or seven out of ten,
then I'll keep them at a seven. But I think
if there's a chance that they have upside beyond that,
then I will give them an eight, even if if
it's a small chance of that. I think an example
of that would be like Adam Yerchek, who I struggled
a little bit with. I had him at a low
percentage of being an eight because I still I thought that,
and I still think that he could be that all situations.
Bash Master decent pretty good points, like fifty plus point potential,
but I'm not sure that it's super likely, and it
seems like it's becoming less likely as we go on.
So he's an example of someone who would have a
low percentage chance of being an eight, does that mean
that he's a lock to be a seven. Not necessarily,
because he could even fall below that, But I still
think he has that upside.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 5: I think that's a really gray line, and someone like
Quentin Byfield is someone else who I struggle with that
kind of thought process. But that's where I try to
really think about that and say, is this what is
the most likely thing?
Speaker 3: Do they have upside?
Speaker 5: If they have upside, even if it's smaller, I'll try
to bump them up to the next level. But if
they're just super secure and I don't think they have
much upside, then I'll put them at a high percent
of a lower number.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: So that's something just to keep in mind. If you're
looking at some of these ranks. You have to wrap
your mind around that. But it is very valuable to
be able to wrap your mind around that. So it's
nice that is represented there. Victor. Our third question that
we got today, how do you value trades in Dynasty?
If you're contender trading picks and prospects for a win
now player and vice versa, if you're rebuilding.
Speaker 5: Yeah, to me, this is the beauty of dynasty. I
always look for the win, as I said at the beginning,
and I think it's way easier to do in dynasty.
I think just about every dynasty trade can be a
win because you have teams and players in different situations.
Even if you're close in the standing, you can still
give different things picks, prospects, post type sleepers, young players
who haven't quite realized their potential, guys who are underperforming.
We see these kinds of massive trades all the time.
You can move four or five pieces each way, and
both guys can be pretty happy with what they got.
Sometimes you're just frustrated with someone on your team. That
Adam Fox is someone who's driving me crazy right now
is it's not doing anything. Basically all the New York Rangers
are like that. But yeah, I think that if you're
a contender that you want upside, you want some security
that you don't trade Nathan McKinnon for five round or sorry,
that's not if you're a contender. If you're a rebuilder,
you want some upside, you want some security. You don't
trade Nathan McKinnon for five first round draft picks. That's
just a bag of magic beans. That's not really ideal,
but you could trade him for some draft picks, a
blue chip prospect or too, maybe a young player or too.
Basically you want a blend of that upside and security.
I think the biggest problem is if you just trade
like Nathan McKinnon for I don't know, someone like Gavin McKenna,
which I think that's maybe a little bit more debatable
because he's looks like he's going to be a star.
Or maybe you trade him for some blue chip prospect
that you think is going to be really great, maybe
like a Berkeley Caten. Maybe that's a better example because
he looks great, but is he at the same level. No,
like a one for one there is probably not ideal, right,
and even McKenna might not work out to be quite
as great. So it's just that it's that upside where
you could get blinded to say, oh, this guy's going
to be just as good in five years, So maybe not.
So I think you really need some security with that
high upside. And so that's why I think if you're
going to trade one of these superstars, you need multiple
assets getting coming back, and you need something that's both
secure and has high upside and On the other side,
if you're a contender, I think this is easy. You
just push your chips in and cry yolo. I've been
doing this for years in our Common League, where I've
won three championships and the team.
Speaker 3: Is pretty depleted. I think the biggest thing there is
that you just have to.
Speaker 5: You have to work hard to have assets that people
might actually want from you, and right now I don't
have too many good prospects, and it becomes a bit
of a challenge to maintain relevance. A lot of my
team is very old, but they're still kicking. I think
I'm in fourth place right now, still competitive, and you
have to make some.
Speaker 3: Shrewd moves to keep your window open.
Speaker 5: I have guys like Crosby, I have the Carlson and
j Kopitar, so some of those guys are old, but
I have guys like Sam reyn Hard and Miko Rontinen
to keep that window open. Tom Wilson, who's having a
resurgent season, Vasilevski, I think that's the key. But I
think you really have to draft well, draft guys that
can have some upside, like I got Carson Raykoff a
little bit later, Calum Ritchie, a little bit later in
the draft I was able to acquire and mel Andre
trek Parasaka is someone a guy a little late get.
Stein Soldberg make these draft picks of guys that might
take a little bit longer but have some upside, and
then when they pop off, when they're Draft plus one
or something like that, you might be able to trade
them or something like that, which I have been able
to do. I think several years ago I got a
scar off really late. I ended up flipping him. I
think I ended up. I think I flipped him for
Crosby if I remember correctly. That was a couple of
years ago. Oh, you have to work really hard to
keep your window open. But I think when you get
to the point where you're competitive and you're pushing your
chips in, you just don't care. You just get whatever
you can if they're older or whatnot, and you just
you do whatever you can to keep that keep your
window open. And I think the harder thing too, is
then trying to decide when are you too old and
non competitive that you got to rebuild, which I keep
thinking I'm coming to, but it hasn't happened quite yet.
It's right around the corner. For that team than I think.
Speaker 4: The hard part and I kind of referenced this in
the last section, but the teams who are going to
try it, like, if you have Nathan McKinnon, what can
you realistically trade for him? It another team is going
to sweep in and be like, man, I really would
love to get McKinnon on my team to be able
to compete, But the teams that are going to go
all in for him probably are not going to have
the draft assets that you want. They can throw as
many first round picks. A team that's going to win
a championship can throw almost as many first round picks
as they want for me for McKinnon, and if they're
their own first round picks, I no, I can't do that.
I think of the again, the original Dynasty League for FHL.
I have McKinnon and I have a soon to be
four and eighteen. I'm in a rebuild and I've traded off,
as I said, several of my better players. I really
rebuilt a prospect system from not a great position into
you know, I've got a reasonable prospect system. Now it's
on the come and what it's going to have to
be one of the top teams that's willing to part
with almost one of their top players, plus the best
of their prospect system. But a lot of these teams
just don't have any prospects left. I have teams come
to me in Dynasty in multiple different sports and say, boy,
i'd really like to get this guy off you, and
I look at the roster. I say, there's literally nobody
on your roster that I would like better than the
player that I have here. I don't know what we're
going to do because you could almost throw as many
your entire prospect system in. All your picks are not
worth this player for one thing. When people are often
you bulk and you're in a position where you've already
maximized your roster spaces, you'd be like, I can't even
fit these guys on my roster right now. You're trying
to offer me junk for and I know it's the
only thing you have is this junk, and you're willing,
you're being very giving, but you don't have the ponies
to get this done. And I've had to turn people
down multiple times before because they just don't have anybody
is going to be of use to me. All their
players are thirty years old. All of their picks are
going to be what they have are going to be
at the end of the round. All of their prospects
are marginal. Sometimes you just have to tell people it's
just not going to be there. And when you talk
about let's start it out with, how do you value
these trades in dynasty if you're contender trading picks and prospects.
One of the problems with dynasty ranks generally now we're
getting past prospect ranks here right, because we're really talking
about win now players in picks prospects is there needs
to be somebody should come up with, and better not
be Victor, because Victor you don't have time for this.
Two sets of ranks, a set of ranks for the
rebuilding teams and a set of ranks for the win
now teams, and that has value. I've seen this in basketball.
There's a site called Basketball Monster that is two different
sets of ranks, one for the rebuild, one for the
win now and what's going to perform this year. But
one of my favorite dynasty voices in football, Matt Waldman,
puts out report every year and he has two sets
of ranks, one for the team, one for if you're
trying to win this year twenty four to twenty five,
and then he has a second set of ranks for
twenty twenty six, twenty twenty seven. Keeping my football, these
guys they just don't last long. In football, the careers
are shorter, so you can make it that way. In hockey,
you'd want to put something further out. And then there's
annotations that he puts on this. People are underrated, high
risk reward, guy who would have to get a shot,
maybe a guy with specific talent. There's all kinds of
little designations that he puts in there to try to
do it. We all know this is the complicated thing
to do, and it's the thing. Nobody really does this
that I have seen. Maybe somebody's stop me if you've
seen this in dynasty hockey, but I haven't seen it
on the major ranking websites. It's just a very difficult
thing to do because even you call it dynasty rankings,
and what are you talking about, because dynasty teams are
in win now for him two. Theoretically you could look
at redraft ranks versus dynasty ranks, and if we all
define dynasty ranks, is what's happening in five years, that
would be one thing, but I think we define it
multiple different ways, and that's why it's very difficult to
compare apples and apples. And like Victor said, there's so
many ways to get a win trade in Dynasty, but
you almost need to be really working on two different
sets of ranks. And if I could look at the
win now ranks and trade you the twentieth best player
for the twenty twenty eight ranks twentieth best player, that
should be a win, right. We should both get what
we want, and they should be ranked very differently, But
it's something that people are trying to do in their
head and trying to approximate instead of having in a
very sort of rigorous way. And if you'd like to
make these ranks, reach out to Victor in the discord
or by email and you can create them for us
and we'll put them on our website and sell them
back to you. What do you think, Victor, Yeah.
Speaker 3: All I heard was you trying to give me more
work during that whole segment. That's what I heard.
Speaker 4: I'm trying to say this and hope you go earmuffs,
because I don't want you to start this Victor you'll, yeah,
we can't do this to.
Speaker 6: You, man.
Speaker 5: You know what I'm thinking that made me think of
is instead of a whole different list, which I think
is a cool idea, but you could almost create like
a filter through which you can analyze your team. So
you can just apply like I'm a rebuilder, and it'll
just apply some modifier that will filter the numbers through
your lens of where your team is at. That might
be an easier way to do it if you could
figure out a cool formula that would do that for you.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and there are there are sites like road a
Wire you can do this. I think you might even
be able to do it for hockey if you're paid
on road a Wire. I know Dynasty RS you can
do this for football where you can import all the
rosters automatically and it will jecked standings and it will
tell you realistically what you are in this league versus
where you may be in January because of underperformance, over
performance wherever, and get you on the right track. But yeah,
there's there there could be tools designed to do this,
tools that will be as good as our expectations of
who guys are going to be in a few years,
which of course are very imperfect, but nonetheless, so anyway,
that is the answers the questions we have. We're going
to come right back and do a little exercise here.
It's the Skid Game. Did you miss it. It's been
a couple of years, but now the Squid Game is
back on Netflix. I feel in empowered and I've been
wanting to use this theme song anyway again for a
couple of years. And the Skid Game, we're gonna do
the Express edition. We're gonna do the home edition today
because in the old days, what Skid Game was is
I did an in depth breakdown on somebody's dynasty roster,
and we really tried to get into what could you
do here? What do you really have here? But I'm
going to try and I'm making these rosters up. We
are going to I'm gonna put like the highlights of
somebody's roster up here, and then Victor and I are
going to decide whether this is a full board sell
selling opportunistically, whether we're staying the course, buying opportunistically, pushing
in chips. We're gonna say these are fairly standard twelve
teen points. Just do that in your head. It's we
all know goals and assists will be big. We'll also
include that they'll be shots and blocks and hits included
somehow in goalie categories. Victor, are you up for this exercise?
Can we do this on the fly?
Speaker 3: Do you think? Yeah, let's do it. It's back. I
think it's good time.
Speaker 4: All right, I'm gonna say Team number one, we're gonna
say that the top mature pros on this team, they've
got Austin Matthews, Sam Bennett, Sidney Crosby, Drew Dowdy, and
Andre Vassilevsky. The top young pros will be Connor Zerry,
Jack Hughes, Dustin Wolf, and Joseph Wall. And we're gonna
give them top prospects Yvon Demidoff, Tanner Mullendyke and Ryan Leonard.
And then we'll say that the rest of their starting
roster is above average, slightly above average, the guys that
is not like it drops off to nothing after these
guys that they've got a decent roster around them. They
will have some Sherwood Severson types to sell, as we'll
call them, based on the questions in the first section,
and they've got their own future picks still available. So
if you had a roster like this, Victor, what would
you do?
Speaker 3: I have a heart.
Speaker 5: Time not wanting to push my chips in if I
see guys like this. I think part of it is
you look at some of the assets that you have,
and I think that but you could probably turn a
lot of these assets into some really good players. Now
you have some elite players at each position. I don't
know about defense, but you got Dowdy when he comes back,
should be pretty good. I think that's a big thing
that you're missing. But you have Matthews, you have Crosby,
you have Assilevski, you got some pretty good young players.
Jack Hughes is pretty elite. You got some other goaltending depth.
You really need some defense. Could you turn Ivan Demidov
and Ryan Leonard into some pretty incredible win now pieces.
Speaker 3: I think you could. I think you could get multiple
win now pieces.
Speaker 5: For that, and maybe with some of the other guys
that you have, maybe you could get some depth. So
I would probably think really hard, but that The thing
that might be hard about selling Demodov and Leonard is that.
Speaker 3: They're pretty ready.
Speaker 5: They should be available next year, and so I would
really be looking at that. If I thought that I
could get, you know, I'm an elite forward, someone close
to what Matthews can be, like apries off Er, you know,
someone in that top tier forward Demodov. If someone, if
a HABS fan, was willing to give me that, I
would probably take it Leonard.
Speaker 3: I think Leonard is great. I think he's phenomenal.
Speaker 5: But I would probably take you know, someone really good
now in place of that, because I think Leonard is
still going to take two three years to hit his
full potential in the NHL. I think I'd be willing
to do that. I would be pretty.
Speaker 3: Interested in that.
Speaker 5: I think you also would probably be okay waiting with
this team right as team those guys, at least a
couple of those guys. The prospects are going to be
available pretty soon. Talent Tanner Muhlandyke isn't a to do it.
You need You definitely need some high end defense. That's
the biggest thing I think this team needs. So could
you turn this? Could you turn to get a top
defensive prospect out of one of your other guys or
picks or something. I think if you can do that
and push your chips and it might be worth it
or if you can't quite get exactly what you want.
And I think this is one of the situations where
you may examine multiple deals and see if you can
get everything you want, then maybe you do it, and
if you can't, then maybe you just hold off, because
if you can't get all of those things, it might
be better just to wait a little bit.
Speaker 4: I yeah, I think you're I would agree with your
thought process here. I note that in again making up
these rosters, I note I stacked this team with centers Matthews, Bennett,
Crosby and Hughes. You got the center problem here. Hopefully
you've got a util slot that you can get them
all for in at the same time. But yeah, the
defense is weak, and so is the wing. Really you
can get Zeri in on the wing in summably, you've
got some good pro Like I said, you've got fungible
pros who can go up there. But with Demodoff and Leonard. See,
this is the type of deal. If I had dry
Sidle and I was a bad team and I just
had to I was looking, can I sell a Demodoff
Leonard first round picked? That's the type of pick I'm
hoping to get. That's the type of return I'm hoping
to get if I got a guy like that. So
maybe one of the bottom dwellers in your league would
be willing to do something like this. But with Crosby,
Dowdy and Vassilevski in my top end, this team's not
gonna last forever. You're gonna lose a lot of value
within the next couple of years, so it is a
tough one. I'm with you on going for the all ins.
I don't know if the Sherwood Severson's are worth selling,
except if I had to make roster spaces for other things.
But I don't know why if you perceive these guys either,
either of these guys aren't valuable enough for you to
have them on your roster, which it seems like if
anybody could use, it's you looking for the slightly above
replacement players and probably looking at waiver wire guys to
fit in around these big guys, so that I don't
know that there's much selling going on there. My future
picks are fully up for grabs to try to win
right now, because I think I'm still going to be
good in a couple of years, and maybe the guy
who's if I trade look if I'm on the other
side of this too, If I see that a team
is relying on guys like Crosby and Vassilevsky, I'm thinking
to myself, one of their first round picks in three
years might be juicy. That might be even if they
have Matthews and Hughes at that point, they might be
falling off somewhat, and I might be able to if
I get Demenof and Leonard, that first round pick becomes
more valuable in a couple of years than it is
right now, because that's going to weaken this team in
the future. But yeah, I think I'm pushing in chips.
I'm seeing if I can turn some of these super
elite prospects into a super star winger. Like you said,
Kaprizov would be great. I would love to get Kaprizov always,
but especially in a scenario like this. So, yeah, Victor,
I think this one is a win now team. This
first round of the skid game goes to win now
second team, Victor, here is the second. Then I'm gonna
set up again my fund, just making this stuff.
Speaker 3: Up as I go.
Speaker 4: The top mature pros. We're gonna have Jack Eichel Brady Kachuk,
Drake Batherson, Jacob Chikrin, Jacob Markstrom, and Igor Schustjerkin, who
I spelled wrong in this document. And the top young
pros are going to be Dimitri Vankov, Simon and Evanson,
Dustin Wolf again, Joseph Wall again, and Matt Vey Mitchkoff.
I'm gonna give them and the top prospects. I'm going
to give them all the Swedes, Victor. Let's just say
that the top swedes in prospect are all available to them,
including yes for Walstat. We'll give them all the Swedes, man,
that's what we're gonna do. And the other starters, we're
gonna have them be a little bit weaker. Then then
about half of them are a little bit weaker than
the first team had, and about half of them are
less than what you would want on a starting team.
And there's no sure what Seperstons types to sell. They
have most of their own future picks, but they're missing
their own first round or next year and in two years,
so they have a little bit their future prospects are
a little bit diminished except for the Swedes in their system.
What do you do with this team, Victor?
Speaker 3: Where is this team currently in the standard?
Speaker 4: That's a good question. I would say they're probably a
fringe playoff team, just fringe, not probably like sixth place
in one of our one of our fourteen team leagues
or something.
Speaker 3: Okay, that's pretty good.
Speaker 5: The problem with some of these guys is that they're underperforming,
like Shastakan. Do you sell Ego Shirstiakan at this point
when he's having an awful and the Rangers or I
don't know. If someone's going to give you full value
then maybe, but not for what they might think he's
worth based on this year's stats, because that's not going
so well.
Speaker 3: There are definitely some overachiever guys.
Speaker 5: Justusin Wolf is looking great, Varnkov is really kick killing it.
Would you sell yesper waalstat, I don't know. That could
be good. I assume this also includes Axel sandein.
Speaker 3: Pelica, which could garner a lot.
Speaker 5: He's also both those guys are pretty close to NH already,
which is pretty exciting.
Speaker 3: What are the suites? I don't know.
Speaker 5: Stenberg or Lindstein may not be that exciting. Maybe they
get you a little bit, but it may not be
too much in terms of return. And the problem with
this team that I see that I think you've outlined
well is that it lacks a little bit of the
depths to push chips in, which is a little bit
of the problem in terms of the picks. In terms
of the some of the depth players that maybe could
get you something a little bit above replacement, like a
Sherwood who could be your stats. But you have some
really elite players at the top. I know you love
Brady Kuchuk, he's great, and Aichel has been fantastic this year,
Bathurston Chickern has been resurgent, Mark Strum looks great. So
there's some really great guys at the top. And although
Chickern isn't like your elite defenseman, you have some pretty
good players at each position, which I think is really important. Center, wing,
d goalie. You have a strong core. The question is
can you fill out enough around it and you're close.
Do you sell a Mitchikoff for a top of the
lineup guy when he might be that next year or
even arguably at times this year. I think that's a
bit of a difficult question. Seemoan Edvanson, who's been looking great.
I think the thing is if someone will give you
a little bit above market value from some of these
guys that are breaking in but not quite there. This
is a classic example of some of these guys are there,
but they're just not quite killing it yet, and that
makes it a little bit hard for you to evaluate
and for you to be as competitive as you would
like to be. That's probably why your fringe playoff team
and not. If Mitchkoff was what he could be in
a year or two, then this team is probably in
the playoffs, but you're not quite there. So do you
quote unquote give up on him. It's not really giving up,
but it's accelerating the timeline. If you're getting an immediate
value upgrade without giving up too much long term potential,
that's really the hard thing to do. I think a
lot of people would have a hard time selling Mitchkoff
knowing what he could be in a couple of years.
But if you have, if you feel like you have
the right assets to make these moves, and it might
be worth it. I would have personally a hard time
selling Jasper wallstat because I think he's going to be
the best.
Speaker 3: He might be the best player.
Speaker 5: On your team in terms of points per game in
a year or two, maybe not more than Ku Chuck,
but right in that wheelhouse. I think some of these guys,
if you could get what they should garner you like
an ego Schirstirkin. I think if you could get what
he's actually worth, then I think, because because I think
most of us and I certainly don't believe that this
is going to continue.
Speaker 3: I think, whether Drury gets fired or whether.
Speaker 5: Something happens with this team in the future next year,
I don't think they're going to continue to be this bad,
and I don't think Sir Turken.
Speaker 3: Is as bad.
Speaker 5: You could probably comfortably acquire him and know that he's
going to be better than he is this year, And
in terms of pushing your chips in that could help
you this year. If you moved off him and got
some really great assets, you should be able to get
several good skaters or good other assets.
Speaker 3: For him if you moved off of him.
Speaker 5: So I think this one's trickier. I think it might
be you'd have to see you have to explore the
deals that you could get, but I think that there
might be some opportunistic selling. But I'm not sure that
you could full boar push your chips in because I'm
not sure you have all the right assets to do that,
and you might not want to sell a Mitchkov for
an Edmonson or you know, a Gustin Wolf Joseph Wall. Potentially,
if you can get the right pieces then might work.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would agree. This is definitely it's not a
win now team. The opportunity for me, I see two
things as an opportunity for this and again just to
recap Ikeel, Brady, Kachuk, Bathurston, Chicker and Mark Strom, Shasterkin, Bronkoff, Evanson,
Wolf and Wall, Mitchkoff and the Swedes and Ogrin I
guess would be the other suite I can think of
who might be somewhat well regarded there. I feel like
part of what's going to go on here is my
goalies are crazy deep mark Strom, Shasterkin, Wolf, wall In
wallstat is just a it's a it's more goalie than
you end up needing. And if Shasterkin isn't going to
get you the full value, maybe mark Strom will, especially
because right now I don't mind rolling with Wolf and
Wall into the into the playoffs, and with Marc Andre
Fleury going I just I see once those starts don't
have to go for the farewell tour. I got to
think that Wallstet's going to be up there, so it
might be the rare opportunity to opportunistically let yourself do
a one for two trade, right other you never want
to do that, except with this team you don't have depth,
and so getting in a little bit of a haul
for a Markstrom or a Wall because then you got
the Toronto tax involved too. If people believe in Walls
as that was the current future full timer in Toronto,
you could probably get some good depth at the pro level.
And I'd be targeting young, youngish, at least guys who
were in twenty seven year old range or so, because
I think this team is going to compete in a
couple of years if I can get some forward depth,
and so I'm going to try to convert goalies into
valuable above average. What would be a good example of
this archetype Victor Carter ver Hagen might be aiming high here,
guys who are pretty good forwards, not at the level
of some of these elite guys, not ancient, but are
going to be able to contribute positively for quite a
while and fill in these gaps and yeah, and do
it out of my goalies. That's the way that I
would be looking to do this. Missing my own first
rounder next year also gives me no incentive to lose
this year. I may as well try to get in
the playoffs. I may as well see mess around and
find out so to speak, when I get there, because
you never know if you're going to be able to
pull a couple upsets and get there. Yeah, I think
I'm real close. You may as well go when you
don't have a first rounder next year, man, forget it.
There's no tanking now. Doesn't mean you have to push
your chips in, but yes, certainly should be set that
lineup and see if you can screw around and get
yourself in the playoffs.
Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely.
Speaker 5: That's the thing that kind of limits you with this
team in terms of some of the assets that you
have available to make the picks and then also the
draft picks.
Speaker 3: This is tidy, right, is that what you're saying?
Speaker 4: Yeah, let's make it roughly tidy. Again, I'm not gonna
in tidy. We have Fenwick points, we've got to give away,
takeaway some of that stuff. But let's simplify down from that.
But in the sense of the size, the fact that
it's point based, the savviness of the managers, that type
of thing.
Speaker 5: Because one of the things in Tidy that is true
is that hoarding goalies can be really helpful because there's
no limit to how many goalies can play during the week. Now,
if all your goalies are playing on the same day,
that isn't helpful. So what is really helpful is to
have goalies on teams that play a lot of off nights,
which I'm not so sure that your goalies do, and
so that might actually be another reason to move off
of them, but it generally can be a good strategy
to have, especially like Anaheim goalies historically have had a
decent number of off nights, Calgary, Washington. There's some other
teams that might fall into that, but I don't think
yours do, except for a wolf, But that's something that
you could look at. If you could swap a couple
goalies for some skaters, or maybe even one of the
goalies like a backup who could get you some more starts.
That's a real hitten gem for Tidy. But other than that,
I really like that plan. Yeah, getting some other trade
moving off of the Mark Strmen should get you some
pretty great assets for sure.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's I agree with you. You don't want to go
too far down. You can really get yourself in trouble
by having no goalies. I know, in stupid Original Dynasty.
I know, I keep referring to that, but I've got
two goalies right now and it's just killing me.
Speaker 3: I can't. I got to pilt something back up.
Speaker 4: If anybody has a goalie they want to trade me
an Original Dynasty, let me know. See I got the
bully pulp. But I can just say that, I can
put out the call for trades. Nobody's listening, but that's
all right. Yeah you don't want to trade, I would
only trade one of them, but I would be willing
to trade, particularly opportunistically. I would trade one of them.
But yeah, so Victor, that is not an all in team.
But that is a team where you also don't want
to blow it up. I don't think at this point,
because you might be able to get yourself with some
strategic trading, with some good drafting eventually because you don't
have your first rounder next year, and some hard work
into the waiver wire and waiting for those Swedes to
come you might have yourself a pretty good team in
a couple of years.
Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely.
Speaker 4: All right, Victor, we played the Skid Game Express Edition.
I think that's all we got for today. You have
any other awards for the people.
Speaker 5: No, we got some other fun stuff coming up. And
if you have some things you want us to talk about,
let us know. We're always open to feedback.
Speaker 6: All right, we'll be back right after this to close
up the show.
Speaker 4: A couple of things to remind you of. This show's
brought to you by fan Tracks. You can play all
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what you're listening to this one a Sunday, NFL. I
expect I'm going to be able to re roll over
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Because that's how quickly they roll over the Dynasty season.
I hear people talking about their offseason leagues and it's ah,
there's gonna be a couple months. We can't make trades
because we have to wait until they put this up. No,
fan tracks, it's up right away. You roll it over.
You have a full off season to have your fun,
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can do salary leagues, rookie eligibility. I customize it. You
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Brandon has done amazing work on the website. You heard
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I do a show called Dynasty Sports Life. I talk
all the Dynasty Sports. This week is going to be
part two I've been doing. I do what I call
a city Blender series, where I talk about how I
would rank players across hockey, football, baseball, and basketball for
Dynasty purposes. I do the prospects, and then I do
the pros, and I do something I call old man strength,
which is the really old win now players, and then
I do the mystery men, the guys who I don't
know what to make of but they're not in the
top rankings, but they could turn into something. I just
can't figure them out. And this week I'm going to
be releasing part two of the New York version, which
is going to have nine teams, including the Rangers, Islanders,
and Doubles. For that, if that sounds appealing to you,
how would I write Jack Hughes up against any judge?
Let's find out. Follow us on x A Fan Hockey Life.
Fan Hockey Life is me Victor, and you know twelve
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We appreciate you. Hope you enjoyed this edition. Back again
talking about some listenering questions in the Skid Game and
until next time, people living that fantasy hockey life