Speaker 1: Love.
Speaker 2: It is Last Call Sunday. I'm the brad Queen Aria Epstein,
finally back here in New York City and on the
East Coast, ready to give you guys some winners here
on Wager Talks Last Call. We've got great guests today
as always. It's Yanni the Greek joining us from Las
Vegas telling you where all the sharp baction's coming in.
The steam Room will be live today. And we've got
a special offer today which I'll get to in a second.
John Murray from the Westgates Superbook, and they give us
all the needs. We know how much my favorite group
Chat loves the needs. So we got the needs of
the day for the super Book over there at the
Westgate in Las Vegas. Ronald Kbang going to join the
show and end this show with the Bang. We'll talk
some NFL, We'll talk maybe a little NBA. I Oka Bang.
That's where his bread and butter is the deal, the
deal that we have to get to today. So if
you love what Yannie tells you and you love the
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room for free today because we've got a deal to
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But what does the two ninety nine a month give you? Well,
it gives you early access to shows like bet on
It and specialty segments. So I actually was texting Kelly
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kel why can't I access bet on It yet? And
she said, oh, because our insiders get it first and
then you guys get it later. And I was like,
damn okay. So the insiders get bet on It first,
you get all that early action early, just for two
ninety nine a month, So that would be very helpful. Again,
WT dot Buzz slash Insiders. I watch bet on It
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Yanny the Greeks, see how he feels on those Wednesdays
when they record, and then how he feels on Sunday
right before kickoff. We've got all the action that you need.
I'll get props to you at the end of the show,
but first spring on Yanni the gree Glyde from Las Vegas,
VR Vegas Runner, whatever you'd like to call him. Yanni,
But I know that usually we have a little BS talk,
but before we get to any BS talk, before we
talk about anything later on. Today it's halftime in this
game in Spain. Has any action come in for halftime?
Speaker 3: No?
Speaker 4: Nothing in the second half. But we're on Washington. Took
Washington at plus three. Also got Washington in a couple
of those plus ev teasers.
Speaker 3: As well, But yeah, we're on the Washington side.
Speaker 4: I'm not seeing anything except under the unders getting hit
in the second half. No surprise, low scoring first half,
but yeah, I like Washington. I don't like the second
half line now because their minus a half in the
second half tells you at plus three we got a
good bet. So hopefully we start off with a four
percent winner. You got me at a good time, are
I'm coming off a huge, huge weekend, I said coming in.
I've won coming into this week. I was had on
like ten of eleven weeks in college football. I had it,
and I'm coming off a losing week. I said, I'm
going to progress towards the mean. That's exactly what we
should do. And we bounced back with a fourteen and
six week in college.
Speaker 3: Football with the weekday.
Speaker 4: Games and Saturday games, So seventy percent college football, seven
and two in MMA, hit our five percent, five and
Oho four percent.
Speaker 3: Just the crushing couple days. And I love this NFL card.
Speaker 4: So yeah, Washington, you can't get three, but I like
Washington to get the cover.
Speaker 3: We're running hot right now. So yeah, yeah, it's a good.
Speaker 2: Time of the NFL card for Week eleven. Why.
Speaker 4: I just think this is that time where people have
already drawn conclusions, just like in college football, and you're
able to pick apart like so many of those narratives.
Speaker 3: Perfect example. I'm going to talk about them again.
Speaker 4: Everybody thinks I have something personal against Texas A and M,
but that was a perfect example yesterday.
Speaker 3: And I'm not knocking Texas A and M.
Speaker 4: My argument was that they were not a top three team,
and yet they've been in the top five for so
long and they barely just cracked my top ten. And
that's why I thought there was a ton of value
looking to fade them. I'm not saying they're going to lose,
but what I'm saying is they're being overvalued by the
betting market. Usually you'll get a place of good bet
going against that, and it's like that in the NFL
right now. You saw the look aheads get demolished on
some of these games today simply because of what happens someday,
like one result of last week, and we saw so
many of these lines go from pick them to now
minus three. We saw it with the Chargers, we saw
it with San Francisco. We saw it with so many
of those games that went from even as a one
point dog and now they're the favorite, all because of
recency bias.
Speaker 3: So I just think when that's.
Speaker 4: The case and you're seeing line movements like that in
the NFL, there's money to be made because usually they
have so much confidence in their NFL lines, they're tight.
There's not value either way Team MAY or Team B
when lane eleven to win ten.
Speaker 2: It's funny, though, because you talk about these teams that
might be overvalued by the book. You're wearing a forty
nine Ers hat today. You've been wearing a Phillies hat
for a few weeks, but now you switch to forty
nine Ers. That's a team that every week I am
waiting to take advantage because I feel the books overvalued them.
Until this week. That line against Arizona seems very fishy.
Because it's so short, facing a struggling Cardinals team, and
the Niners have all these injuries, but yet they keep
finding ways to it.
Speaker 3: Here's my problem. I placed the bad bet. I'm on Arizona.
Speaker 4: I took Arizona plus three, and I even had to
lay a little bit of vig to get plus three.
So now I'm trying to be hoping to be the
product of good luck because we didn't place a great bet.
That's the bottom line. If you get plus three and
a half today and I have a plus three ticket
in my pocket, then I did wrong by my subscribers. Fortunately,
we get out ahead of the market more times than not.
But when you try to do that, you will be
wrong on occasion. And in this case, like now, I
don't like that that position because of that that significant
line move and.
Speaker 3: Yesterday the bet on It result.
Speaker 4: My only loss was Michigan State, and when we did
the show, that was the only dog. I had actually
a premium off until that time, but I had bet
it earlier in the week, and by the time we
went to bed bet on It, forgive me they it
went through the key number of seven to seven and
a half, and I had taken them at seven, and
I tried to stress I no longer have that same
amount of confidence, but since they're the only dog, I'm
gonna have to use them. They ended up losing. I'm
not telling you Arizona's going to lose, but what I'm
saying is at plus three, I didn't place a great bet.
But I just think this, this uh San Francisco team. Yeah,
I think they're a little bit overvalued. I think the
party situation is adding a premium that I don't think
is warranted. I like how this Arizona team just doesn't
lose by margin. Even when they do lose, you know
what I mean, they don't get blown out, which shows
me effort.
Speaker 3: Now, I get it.
Speaker 4: This line isn't like six or seven points, so they
don't you know that San Francisco don't have to blow
them out to cover.
Speaker 3: But I do like how well they play when they
are dogs.
Speaker 4: And more importantly, they haven't played well at all at home,
and I think that's going to change. Like historically they
play better at home than they do on the road.
That hasn't been the case so far this year. So
I think all those little factors are giving us more
points than we should be getting in with Arizona. But
I don't like this three and a half right now.
I'm just keeping it real.
Speaker 2: I know that you have the Steam room coming up,
so give us a little bit of insights into some
of the steam that we've seen throughout the week, and
then I'll ask you my individual questions and the group
chats quest.
Speaker 4: Yes, yes, yes, for selfish reasons, that's what I'm here for.
Speaker 3: Tell me what you need Ariel.
Speaker 2: Okay, sir, I have some big questions of some of
the big games, starting with I know I'm bet on it.
A big talking point was that Brown Ghost Chiefs game.
Huge game for the Broncos, a chance to essentially take
the Chiefs out of Division contention, giving the Broncos a
much better shot at this division going head to head
with those Chargers. I know, v are you and I
are on the Chargers with a lot of futures, But
what about those Broncos today and the line moving in
favor of the Chiefs.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and they're starting to pile up on the Kansas
City side at least early on. And you can't forget
the look ahead on this game was two and a half. Okay,
they brought it out at two and a half that
got hit immediately went the two minus one twenty went
to three to three minus one twenty three and a
half four four and a half. So the Kansas City
money continues coming in. You can't bet Kansas City right now.
That boat's gone. It's long gone. Unless you have the
ability to move markets and bring it back.
Speaker 3: Let that go.
Speaker 4: You're not placing a great bet. That's what I try
to stress more than anything else. Regardless of whether Kansas
City goes out there and covers this game, it's not
a good bet right now because we have line movement
all week, meaning I could have got a much better
bet if I placed it any time other than today.
So why would I want to place it today? Again,
I'm just not getting the best of it. The only
way I'd be getting the best of it with Kansas
City is if this line closes six, and I don't
think that's going to happen. So it gives me one choice.
Do I like Denver or doing't I like Denver? Well,
here's what I know about Denver. They have a strong
home field advantage they always have, but more importantly this year,
they haven't lost a single game at home compared to
being only three and two on the road, so obviously
strong home field advantage. Then look at the split for
Kansas City four and one at home, one and three
on the road, so the split heavily favors the Denver Broncos.
I look at the head to head matchup. Denver's won
two of the last three against them. More importantly, even
when Denver's lost, they covered plenty of games. They've covered
in fact, six of the last ten, so they've been profitable.
Speaker 5: Against Kansas City.
Speaker 3: Right now, for me, it's Denver or pass.
Speaker 4: Automatically, there's no way you could get me to bet
Kansas City because I just don't bet bad numbers, and
right now that's exactly what you're getting with Kansas City.
So for me, it's take the four and a half
with the Denver Broncos or leave it alone. I haven't
bet it yet, but I like the Broncos.
Speaker 2: Mitchell Brothers three asked my next question thoughts on Matt
Lions Eagles game. It hasn't moved either. It's been two
and a half. I know Kelly and I spoke about,
Oh tease the Lions. It's plus two and a half.
Great teaser leg how about a side.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and disclaimer, I've done really well at these primetime games.
I think something like fourteen and two, thirteen and three three.
Speaker 2: It's so funny. Kelly and I were talking about this.
People think, oh, we're two girls in Aruba that were
just beaching. No, we like wake up and we're talking football,
she said. I said to her, you know it's hard
when you guys on bet On It have to talk
about primetime games all the time. She said, yeah, VR
felt that way, and his primetime games have been absolutely
crushing it.
Speaker 3: Yeah. I get the TV.
Speaker 4: I've been just on fire with these freaking TV games.
But the disclaimer is I get really good confirmation late
because I've gotten really good at deciphering based on what
happens earlier, so I kind of wait to see what
happens during the day. Make a long story short, here's
what I have going in. I just don't want to
paint myself in a corner and say I like the
over and then end up firing a four percent play
on the under. But here's what I can tell you.
The under has gotten steam. There's a lot of sharp
money that has come in on the under. With Philadelphia
and Detroit. No surprise, the public is going to bet
that one over, so that's going to balance out that total.
That's not why not you're not seeing huge, huge, huge
line movements as far as the signe goes. Also saw
sharp money on Philadelphia minus one and a half and
minus two. That's why you're looking at two and a
half and juice that most of the sharp shops.
Speaker 3: The key is is it getting to three.
Speaker 4: If it gets to three, I think it makes a
really strong case for Philadelphia, meaning if you're willing to
give if the market's given Detroit three points in Philly
when on paper Detroit's the number one power rated team,
at least in my power ratings, it tells you there's
a lot of sharp money defending that Philadelphia at anything
less than a field goal. I don't disagree with Kelly's
move on taking Detroit up to nine eight and a half,
especially with the total being hit down towards the under.
I lean Philadelphia, but that has nothing to do with
my teasers. Teasers are simply bet because you have the
number and you know you're placing a plus TV bet.
Your opinion shouldn't come into into the picture at all.
When you're placing teasers, So I do lean Detroit on
the teaser side, but I like Philadelphia for the game
they're coming in. Hut won three straight games, covered three
straight games. Usually you're gonna be a little overvalued in
that spot, but because it's Detroit on the other side
of the football, that's not the case. So you were
getting Philly at a discount that's not discounted no more.
That's the problem I'm having. Like if I got down
on Philly on the money line when this first opened up,
I kicked my feet up. Regardless of outcome. I placed
a great bet right now. If I bet Philly unless
it closes three, I didn't really place the great bet,
but I do lean the Philadelphia side right now, hoping
to get some kind of confirmation, maybe even on the total,
because again primetime has been where the money is, and
so far we have a difference of opinion.
Speaker 3: Sharp's over I mean Sharp's under.
Speaker 4: Public over see where that takes us bucks bills.
Speaker 2: That's one of the biggest games at the one pm
Eastern time slate. Steam is on the bills minus five
and a half to six and a half total, dropping
though fifteen and a half to forty six and a half.
What are you seeing on this bucks Bills gave me.
Speaker 3: On me again.
Speaker 4: I wonder if it's weather related out there in Buffalo.
Obviously wintertime we gotta start paying attention to that with
the totals.
Speaker 3: But again with the weather.
Speaker 4: Unless you get out ahead of the weather, it really
doesn't matter after the adjustment's made. Like if you got
under forty nine and a half and now it's forty
six and a half because of the weather, you place
the great bet, But going under forty six and a
half because the weather's bat the value is.
Speaker 3: No longer there.
Speaker 4: That was at forty eight and a half, forty nine
and a half forty seven and a half.
Speaker 3: See where I'm going with that. As far as the
side goes, I like Tampa Bay.
Speaker 4: I haven't gotten to the window with it because of
the sharp money I'm respecting on the Buffalo Bill's side.
But here's the thing, you got a huge advantage on
the quarterback side. I know Mayfield's has been playing good,
but when you look at his passing success rate, he's
in the bottom five of the NFL. That's keeping me
off of Tampa Bay and also Buffalo coming in off
a loss where they got blown out by Miami as
eight point favorites. Like, that's what's kept me off it.
Gum the head. I think the sharp side gets it
done Buffalo where this line sits right now, I just
can't get to the window.
Speaker 2: With them another game, this one the chat just brought up.
Let me see who just brought it up now, Oh,
David talk uh Jaggs San Diego. Well, La, they moved
from one and a half to three the Chargers, And
now that's the key number of three that I'm seeing,
Jags Chargers.
Speaker 4: What do you say, Yeah, they'll always be San Diego
to me that that's.
Speaker 2: Always politically correct sometimes.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yeah, they're the way up up to three
now and like you said, the totals dropping. Also, i'd
actually like the over, but again, you've got to give
respect when you're seeing.
Speaker 3: That kind of line movement, and that kind of keeps
me off of it.
Speaker 4: As far as the side goes, I'm not surprised that
the line's moved on the Chargers. If the sharp money's
gotten down on them, it's getting out ahead of the market.
Why because you have a Chargers team that's coming in red.
Speaker 3: Huh.
Speaker 4: They've won three straight games. They've won four of their
last five. They've covered two out of the last three
across from them Jacksonville. Other than being home, what have
they done. They've only had one cover since October sixth,
Like they're they're not really been all that impressive. But
I think this line is a little bit too high
right now at three Again in the NFL, these lines
are so tight, like a line movement like that, I
don't think is warranted. I just don't see any reason
why the Chargers should be a field goal favorite over Jacksonville.
What would they be a touchdown at home? I just
don't see it. I mean, they were three against Pittsburgh,
they were three against Minnesota, two and a half against
Indiana at home.
Speaker 3: I just don't see it.
Speaker 4: So for me, I like the dog here, the home
dog in the Jacksonville Jaguars. But I haven't bet this
one either.
Speaker 2: The chat wants to know about Bears Vikings as well.
Speaker 4: Oh, a lot of sharp money on Minnesota, a lot
of public money on Minnesota. Also, this is one where
you have everybody on an island. And why isn't this
at three? Why did it get to three and get.
Speaker 2: The Chad said they could grab a three right now.
Speaker 4: Because it's gone to three exactly, it's gone to three,
and yet it kept getting picked off. It went to
three this morning at certain spots it got picked off.
Speaker 3: So someone's out.
Speaker 4: There, some groups out there that thinks that plus three
Chicago's the side. And it looks like the books kind
of like that as well, because they're letting you come
in at two and a half.
Speaker 3: Like again, some of the shops are.
Speaker 4: At three, but there's still plenty of two and a
half's out there, And for me, that's a telling sign.
I don't have any confidence in betting Minnesota when I
see the market like this, I mean, you have Chicago,
they've just played better this year, Like this is more
on You're you're more or less guessing that Minnesota is
the better team because they haven't done it on paper.
So like you're you're going way out there on that
risk curve guessing that they're going to produce when they
have it, And to me, I just don't see it again.
And I respect the short money on Minnesota, but I
don't like that side.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we talk about this big game Seattle Rams and
then you know that the last question I'm going to
ask you is going to be about my Ravens and Browns,
because I know you like the Brownies this week, Yanni.
And the last thing I need for my first day
back in New York after being in a relaxing vacation
in Aruba for two weeks is to watch my Ravens loose.
Speaker 3: Live in the dream, Live in the dream, Live in
the dream. Good for you. Now you're getting good two
way action on this game.
Speaker 2: Which one Ram Seattle or Browns Ravens Ram Seattle.
Speaker 3: Yeah, where it sits? Now? These games. The only way
I could look to play this game, Mario, is look
to the under.
Speaker 4: Look to the under, because this total's jacked up because
of what they've done recently. Like you have set the
Rams coming in scoring what thirty four more points in
three straight games Seattle twenty seven or more three straight games.
But when you look at head to head other than
the January game that went over and that total was
only thirty eight and a half, Let's not forget it
was an under series, like four straight unders with not
all that high totals. This total's jack for these two teams.
Remember last year's total was thirty eight and a half.
It's now forty eight and a half, big adjustment. I
don't think it's warranted. I like the under Cleveland. Listen, man,
I like the brownies here. And here's why. I understand
that the excitement for Baltimore and having Lamar Jackson back,
I get how big of a PC is, but I
do think that, like most quarterbacks, their overvalue in his
actual worth to the betting line. And with Cleveland, they've
just played them tough in this series. Not only have
they covered against them, they've won straight up five of
the last ten games. So like this has been one
of those series that has a bad team like Cleveland
showing up for whatever reason. And now that it's over
a touchdown, I locked it in an eight and a half,
so it shows you more sharp betters agree with me.
With this line dropping and with Baltimore coming in, covering games,
winning and covering with Lamar back, I expected that this
was going to be a nice high spread I could
take advantage of. And like I said, as ugly, I
can't really defend the Cleveland side. It's more of a
fade of Baltimore than a bet on Cleveland. I like
when it's the perfect storm and a fade on one
and a bet on the other.
Speaker 3: But this isn't that case.
Speaker 4: I can't really defend Cleveland other than strength of schedule.
But it's a fade of Baltimore, who I think that
the the price isn't warranted and we got a good
bed at eight and a half at seven and a
half now, so I'll take it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it won't surprise me if the Ravens make me
sweat this one after exactly a week. Yeah, it's hard
to win. Uh and cover an Yes, they are.
Speaker 3: I'm running hot.
Speaker 4: I'm running hot, and I just in football, I'm feeling
it like there's nothing better.
Speaker 3: When they're just love that.
Speaker 2: It's like in baseball when everyone says you're seeing it
like a beach exactly, that's exactly what he's acting.
Speaker 4: You're like, nope, no, no, no, nope, okay that one
that and it's it's beautiful.
Speaker 2: I love how active the chat's been, and I know
that you are. You've got the steam room coming up?
Speaker 3: What time?
Speaker 2: Where can everybody find the rest of your voting?
Speaker 4: Top of the hour? Top of the hour. We're gonna
go through every single game as much as time permits,
at least all the early games. Signs totals player props.
Fifteen minutes before kickoff, we will put together the plus
ev tasers that have been money for us, and of
course any of the live bets that come in, and
I'm there to answer all your questions. We get to
celebrate our results of late and focus on what's ahead. Baby,
jump on board, because there's a lot coming up between
now and the end of the year.
Speaker 3: Do some damage Aerial. Thank you for having me.
Speaker 2: Thanks so much, Johnny, have a profitable Sunday, and everybody,
remember that you could join wager Talk Insiders and you
could get access for free to the steam room today
WT dot Buzz Slash Insiders. It's only two ninety nine
a month early access to shows like bet on It
and some specialty segments. So today you get that free
access to be our steam room. Right after we end
here on last call coming up now, we've got my
great friend John Murray joining us from over at the
Superbook in Las Vegas. I'm back in New York.
Speaker 3: By the way, JM, how was Aba?
Speaker 2: It was amazing. Your girl Kelly and I we had
a great time. She ends up hitting did you see that?
She ended up using the pats in that like NFL
slot game.
Speaker 6: She ended up king why weren't why didn't you appear
on the Kelly and Murray Show On the side she
was working.
Speaker 2: You guys did the show while I did my show.
Speaker 1: You were doing a show at the same time. Yeah, okay,
that's a pretty good exceps.
Speaker 2: I kicked her out to the balcony because she did
way more shows than me this week, so I told
her that she had to go to the balcony. I'm
just using the inside room.
Speaker 6: Well, one thing that I noticed was because she was
on the balcony, there was so much noise out there,
so she was on mute the whole time. So it
was basically just me talking into the camera while she
did nothing. So it's kind of like the opposite of
our normal show where she never shuts up, you know,
and I just sit there. But it was kind of
it was a different style episode for us. It was
mostly me talking.
Speaker 1: I don't know if that's probably not what the audience wants.
Speaker 2: She was on vacasion. She was in zen mode, right.
I think she was just kind of ready to go
get some more Margarita's. But now we're sober for a while.
Until her birthday Okay.
Speaker 1: That's in like ten days, nine days.
Speaker 2: Wow, I'm just kidding. I'll be sober till Friday. But
that's a long stretch after being on a beach for
two weeks and taking advance of every happy hour like
a degenerate. Let's get to the needs of the day.
Because the jack keeps asking. I told them eleven twenty
am Eastern time, so they're like, where are the needs? JM,
where are.
Speaker 1: They in the morning.
Speaker 6: Definitely looks like Jacksonville is our biggest need. They're at
home against the Chargers. We need We'll need Jacksonville pretty big. Actually,
we'll need Carolina, Carolina on the road against Atlanta. We
took a lot of money on Buffalo, so I've seen
Buffalo go from a five and a half point favorite
to a six point favorite. We need the We need
the Buccaneers pretty big as well. That one surprised me
a little. I thought that game would be a little
more even, but it's not. We need the We need
the Bucks, the Buccaneers. We need the Giants.
Speaker 2: The Giants at home against and that's so fun.
Speaker 6: Yeah, Oh, I can't wait. I love James Winston. I
forgot about that for a second. There.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we will, So let's go.
Speaker 6: Let's talk about the afternoon because we don't win afternoon games.
We lose every afternoon game every week for as long
as I can remember.
Speaker 1: We lost of them all last week. We will need.
Speaker 6: Arizona there at home against San Francisco. We'll need Denver
at home against Kansas City. We don't really have much
of a need in the Seattle game. I mean, we
need Seattle for a little bit, but nothing significant. And
we need Cleveland Cleveland against Baltimore. No, that's good. We
lose every afternoon game. Look at the look at the
afternoon last week there were three games.
Speaker 2: I know we were really pissed at your needs last week.
To be honest, we usually, like one.
Speaker 6: Thing I've noticed the last this season and the second
half of last season, we seem to always do well
in the morning. We seem to always have a nice
cushion after the ten am games. Then we just lose
every afternoon game, and then we try to regroup on
Sunday night football.
Speaker 1: Really good Sunday night game. Yeah, this week Lions Eagles
in Philly.
Speaker 6: We actually need Philly right now for a little not
a big decision, but we do have a little bit
more money on Detroit.
Speaker 2: You think that does we get closer to kickoff or
you think it'll stay pretty much Philly that you need.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to be a big need period.
Speaker 6: I think it's I think it's gonna be similar to
the Seattle game in the afternoon, where people are betting
both sides. I don't I don't see it being a
game that really dictates our bottom line today. I think
it's I think there are two it's just like the
Seattle game, two very very good teams, two teams that
people are happy to support money on both sides of
the game.
Speaker 2: Okay, so pretty much once we stop at the Giants,
so Jaguars, Panthers, Bucks, Giants, needs of the day that
you're confident in, and then we get to the late
afternoon of Arizona, Denver, Seattle, Cleveland, and you're like, we
lose the afternoon, but.
Speaker 1: Hey, we'll lose all of those games. We'll lose them all.
We always do. It's the afternoon.
Speaker 6: I just here's here's my only goal for the afternoon.
One of the games be competitive. Just have one of
the games be close enough that we can show it
on sound here at the Lovely super Book last Sunday.
There wasn't even really anything to show, Like, what what
did you guys do on Sunday?
Speaker 1: After? Into the Ball? Was just three blowout games.
Speaker 2: We actually quit after the one o'clock Eastern time games.
So once the Ravens beat the Vikings, we left the
bar and we went back to the beach.
Speaker 1: What did you think of Kelly? Kelly's a dear friend
of yours.
Speaker 6: She bet the Vikings and she's sitting there in Ruba
rooting against it.
Speaker 2: Was so rude.
Speaker 5: Who does that?
Speaker 2: I invited her two years ago on this trip. She
planned this out. She waited for that schedule to come
out and said, I'm just gonna piss Ariel off and
bet against the Ravens.
Speaker 1: That is not cool on today.
Speaker 2: Now he's on the Brownies.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, the you know the sharp guys, they bet
the Browns every week.
Speaker 2: I mean, well they also well they also have been
betting the Titans every week.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 6: I think it's that's a bit of a surprise, all
kidding aside, we don't really have much of a decision
on that game, and I would have thought looking at
the board, like if we went back to.
Speaker 2: Mine move like two three points throughout the week.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we did that.
Speaker 7: Well.
Speaker 1: There's been some sharp groups taking six and five and
a half.
Speaker 6: But we don't really have a decision because there was
there was some money laid at minus.
Speaker 1: Five and a half on Houston.
Speaker 6: I would have expected that to be a big need,
because Tennessee is almost always a big need, especially when
they're a relatively short dog five point dog in this case,
but it's not. There's just not a lot of money
on that game. There's not a lot of interest in
that game.
Speaker 2: Huh. Well, that one is ugly, So that is ugly.
Speaker 1: I have no I have no interest in that game.
Speaker 2: No, I have zero interest in that can kill us.
The forty nine Ers and Cardinals one was interesting to
me too, JM. Because every week I feel like, Okay,
the forty nine ers injuries are going to catch up,
They're going to catch up. Every week the forty nine
ers find a way, and yet the Cardinals get absolutely
demolished last week by the Seahawks, and here we are
with a three point spread against the Niners.
Speaker 6: We did move it up to three and a half
very recently, and I think it's I think you're seeing
some money on the Niners, Brock parties back for San Francisco.
Speaker 1: I heard different people say different things. If that hurts hurts.
Speaker 6: Them, that helps them. I think it's probably it probably
helps them. But forty nine ers are a very public side.
I can tell you guys that they are probably the
most lopsided.
Speaker 1: They are the most lopsided.
Speaker 6: Take account of the day here at the West Gate,
everybody's on the forty nine ers.
Speaker 2: ARIZONAEF Okay, so you guys need Arizona. I kind of
like them, but they screwed me last week. So I'm
probably gonna stay away from them. Let me think if
there's really.
Speaker 1: You really hold a grudge, don't you.
Speaker 7: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean it's not a great quality of mine. But
you know, I I try not to be so pessimistic,
and people tell me this all the time. I'm very pessimistic,
but I feel like the NFL makes you a pessimist.
Speaker 1: NFL's tough. The NFL is very tough to all aside.
Speaker 6: It's very difficult to sit there and pick winners against
the points spread in the NFL.
Speaker 1: It's not an easy It's not an easy task. That's why.
That's why, like when your friend, Kelly gets all been
out of shape on Sundays. I'm like, what do you want?
This is hard, this is not easy to do this.
Speaker 2: Well, she's everything everyone, everyone's a winner when you're with
Kelly in Vegas. That was why the blackjack table she
got mad at me because at the blackjack table when
she was winning, I kept cursing her out because everyone
else at the table is losing except her, and she's
saying the table's hot.
Speaker 3: No, no, it's just you.
Speaker 1: It's just you.
Speaker 2: NBA and college basketball are better, is what Daniel said.
Pretty mad, Shannon, Well, this chat's like, okay, I'm getting
all over the place. I know props aren't a huge
thing out there for you guys, but are there any
props that you feel are very public?
Speaker 1: Let me look at the prop board? Hold please, Aeriel.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean we'll we'll always do a lot of
action on the Sunday night game, especially this week when
you've got two really good teams. Let me scroll down
to that game see if I can get you something juicy, man.
Speaker 1: Hold on, there's a lot of props. Hell yeah, there's
a lot to scroll through.
Speaker 2: For you to tell me about.
Speaker 6: I'm scrolling right now. And I'm still in the ten
am games. I've made very little progress here. Should have
asked me before the show started.
Speaker 2: Sorry, I'll remember next time. I don't remember to ask boy.
Speaker 6: Sorry, hold on, old, Please ask another question while I
scroll through all these games.
Speaker 2: Richard Lockhart asked, what's the biggest dog that you guys
need to win out right? I assume that it's Jacksonville.
Speaker 1: I think it's Jacksonville or Cleveland.
Speaker 6: I mean I think because because I always look at
it like I know what we're gonna need in the
later in the day.
Speaker 1: So once we get through all the.
Speaker 6: Ten am games, we'll have all the parlays going into
the afternoon to Kansas City and Baltimore on the money line.
So if one of those two teams could lose, which
they will because we lose every afternoon game, we would
do very very well if one of.
Speaker 1: Those two teams could lose a game. No, there's really
not a whole lot they bet under the largest lead
in the Eagles game. There's not a ton of good
stuff on the Sunday night game, to be honest.
Speaker 2: How about needs for totals.
Speaker 6: Totals, Let's see, we need the under, and so it's funny.
They love to bet over on all the big primetime games.
Speaker 1: I think you know that. It looks like we'll need
the under tonight.
Speaker 6: Under tonight in Philadelphia, Detroit, we need the under the
forty nine er game. There's a lot of money on
over San Francisco Arizona game. And you know what game
we'll actually need the under. It's not today, it's tomorrow.
But they'll all bet over in the Dallas game, Dallas
and the Raiders. I'm going to that game.
Speaker 2: Can you believe yourself today?
Speaker 6: I'm going to a National Football League game. I'll be
at the game in Martin.
Speaker 2: Are you subjecting yourself to that? That sounds horrible.
Speaker 1: Part of the job. It's part of the jobs for.
Speaker 2: Work purposes or is that just the excuse?
Speaker 1: No, no, no, it's a work related task. It's part of.
Speaker 6: We'll need the under. I think I know we will.
We'll need the under tomorrow night, and that game will
be you'll be surprised. IW heavily bet that game will
be out here because the Raiders. The Raiders and then
you know Dallas obviously has a huge fan base too,
so two big brands. That'll be one of our best
Monday night games of the year for action.
Speaker 2: John Murray, you're the best. Thanks as always for hopping
on the show with us here on Water Talks last call.
Have fun today and have fun tomorrow night at Monday
Night Football. I'm sure it'll be a real doozy of
the game.
Speaker 1: Well, I'm sure two great quarterbacks. I can't wait for
it should be a real good one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, great defenses as well. That's perfect for you, Jam
have a good one, have a fun day and enjoy
the super bug to you. Well that's but certainly not least.
We are going to be joined now by Wager Talks
on ronalds Caban Hi Kabang, Happy.
Speaker 7: Sunday, Happy Sunday, Welcome back from your trip.
Speaker 2: Thanks.
Speaker 5: Seems like you guys had a lot of fun.
Speaker 2: We did too much fun. And I went food shopping
this morning so that I could clear my system of
all of the crappy food and booze that I was
consuming throughout the week. But that's what football's for, right,
to make us like kind of tempt us to have
to find an outlet. I'm like, no no alcohol today, Kobang.
You're running a Seahawks at Is that an indicator of
something for today.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I am.
Speaker 7: I'm actually from Seattle, so I'm a big Seahawks fan,
but I don't typically bet their games unless I have
a good solid read on it, and this is one
of the games that I have put up place placed
a bet on the Seahawks. Obviously, both of these teams
coming in hot right for a game winning streak. I
think both teams coming off really dominant wins in a
row too, So I know a lot of people are
going to run to Stafford and his dominant MVP looking
a season so far twenty five touchdowns to interceptions, but
I think the Rams have haven't faced really a team
that has been this balance offensively and defensively as the Seahawx.
Speaker 5: Yeah, and in the Seahawks, they travel well too.
Speaker 7: On the season for no ats on the road, They've
kept all four opponents on the road under their team total.
I know both teams have been elite against the run,
but I think if there is any weakness on this
Rams defense, it is against the past and against the
uh Against the Seahawks, who have JSN and Donold, they
actually have one of the highest explosive rates in the league,
so that might be the separator here.
Speaker 5: I think.
Speaker 7: You know, obviously divisional games are going to be pretty tight,
especially between these two types of two teams looking for
that number one spot. So I think it's those explosive
type plays that set them apart. And uh, you know,
for me, like I said, I love playing dogs who
I feel like have a solid chance to win games
out right, and this is one of those types of situations.
So I did take the Seahawks plus three.
Speaker 2: Another game that we haven't touched on too much yet
because it's such a large spread. It's this Packers Giants
game Packers. It's gone between seven seven and a half
total drop forty four and a half forty two and
a half. A lot of changes to the Giants. Quarterback
Jamis Winston now under center. No head coach Brian Dabble
got fired this week. How are you going to approach
this game?
Speaker 7: Yeah, I didn't like how he said that they win
morning games and they need the Giants. But I got
to lift towards the Packers here. You talked about a
lot of the changes that they're they're going through right now.
The Giants are going through right now. Obviously the coaching change,
you got Winston coming in and their offensive line has
been you know, dealing with a bunch of injuries, and
if you look at the Packers, there they are in
you know, obviously a short week, but I think this
is a strong bounce back spot. They just played Philly
ten to seven. Offensively, their numbers are pretty strong still
throughout the season, but their defense only giving up nineteen
point six per game, top ten EPA and success rate
as well. So a lot of things kind of you know,
just from a surface level point towards the Packers. But
you know, I think the green Bay offense versus that
this Giants defense is where I expect that separation to happen.
The Packers, like I said, their numbers still look solid,
obviously coming off a terrible offensive game, so that bounce
back situation, they're They're still live in the playoff race
New York giving up almost four hundred yards per game
a red zone touchdown rate over seventy percent. So this team,
if Green Bay can get to the red zone, they
should be able to score pretty efficiently. So for me,
I got to look towards, you know, a more consistent offense. Obviously,
the bounce back situation does play a role in this one.
So I look towards the Packers here, and I do
look at long term trends as well, and this one
goes back to I think twenty thirteen, but the non
divisional road favorites of three or more coming off a
home loss as a favorite, so basically a bounce back
spot in six ats since twenty thirteen. So this fits
the Green Bay Packers, and so I did take the
minus seven years.
Speaker 2: Speaking of divisional favorites, you've got the Pittsburgh Steelers laying
five and a half against the Cincinnati Bengals. Bengals and
Joe Blacko just upset this Aaron Rodgers and Steelers team
a few weeks ago. What's the play for game two
of a divisional matchup with Aaron Rodgers at home?
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 7: I was looking at the over in this one, obviously
forty nine. Last night it has come down. I didn't
take this. This is not like a client client player
or anything like that, just first glance. So it just
seems like this should be an overtyp game. Obviously, Cincinnati
three and six, they've been living in track meets, right,
They've lost two games where they've scored thirty plus themselves.
So this is a situation where Pittsburgh. I know they've
been struggling offensively from a yardage perspective, but they actually
score pretty efficiently. I feel like they could take advantage
of this Bengals you know defense. The Steelers secondary also
is banged up, so I think that's the reason why
this can go over as well. Cincinnati should be able
to score their.
Speaker 5: Score their team total over.
Speaker 7: Probably if you look at the Bengals giving up what
twenty four points per game with a top ten red
zone touchdown race our bottom ten touchdown rate, I think
this is just one of those games where both teams
are going to pretty score pretty efficiently in the red
zone as long as they could get there. I know
the Steelers are coming off a game where they just
scored ten points, but this is a terrible Bengals defense.
That's why they're seven and two to the over. Opponents
are seven and two to their team total over as well.
So that was actually another way to look at this
game instead of the full game over Steelers teams total over.
But I think that the Bengals can do their part
as well.
Speaker 2: Jay Dogg asked in The chat Ronald Thoughts on Atlanta,
Carolina Today.
Speaker 5: Atlanta, Carolina.
Speaker 7: That wasn't really too high up on my radar, but
just looking at quick stuff the Panthers on that in
a bounced back spot here. Fuccans got some in season revenge,
but they are coming coming off an ot game and
they're looking ahead to divisional rival. So this is one
of those type of type of games where when there's
signals on both sides, I kind of just throw them
off the list. It gives me more time to focus
on games where I do have an edge, and this
one is not. But my model does lean towards the
Panthers slightly, but not enough to really put too much
into it.
Speaker 2: And lastly, Monday Night Football. So Monday Night Football we
haven't talked too much about, aside for John Murray saying
that the super book probably is going to need the under.
It's a high total of fifteen and a half Cowboys Raiders.
The public's going to zoom two bad defenses a lot
of points, especially for the Cowboys offense. How would you
play Cowboys Raiders Monday Night Football?
Speaker 7: I was actually gonna look towards the Cowboys here. I know,
obviously they're three five and one right on the season,
so doesn't look great, but their offense has been consistent
and efficient. Right they're twenty nine points per game, top
ten in total yards and efficiency. Uh, their defense obviously
has been the problem thirty thirty point eight points per
game given up. Vegas is on the opposite side, right
their their offense is struggling there. They've only won two
of their nine games, so I think they just put
up ten points in Denver as well. So their offense
is really on the opposite side of this Cowboys team.
And for me, what I'm looking at here from a
data standpoint, the offensive edge is just so much cleaner
for the Dallas side. Sitting you know, they're they're at
towards the top and epa a p play, you're fishing
through the air, you're fishing on early downs and.
Speaker 5: They stay ahead of the sticks.
Speaker 7: So if you look at Vegas' defense, they've shown to
be pretty solid as far as yards per play numbers,
but they do fall apart on third down, which is
where Dallas thrives. And for me, where you know Dallas
being what six and third down conversion rate. If you
look at the Raiders offense, their third down converinger rates
towards the bottom of the league. I think they're only
averaging lessons seventeen points per game or something so far
this season, So there's not a lot of upside or
even positive regression that pops up for this Raiders side.
And from the same trend that I mentioned earlier with
the Packers actually fit with this Cowboys team. That forty
four eighteen and six ats trend non divisional world favorites
in a bounce back situation that fits with Dallas a
lot of things. Also for the Dallas defense, they picked
up some guys in the trade dead line. They also
have some guys coming back healthier, So maybe this defense,
you know, as long as they get even just slightly better,
especially on third down defense, this is a situation where
the Dallas Cowboys can separate themselves pretty easily.
Speaker 2: I know that it's an NFL slate, it's week eleven.
People are always high on the NFL. However, people in
the chat were saying earlier, we haven't gotten other sports
today in kbang, I know that the NBA is still
your bread and butter anything through this eight game NBA
slate tonight.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I do have one play up for clients, but
the other one that I haven't really finished capping. I
was actually capping the game earlier when during the show.
But MAVs Blazers over two thirty four and a half.
I know it's tough to look at and over with
the MAVs team just because of how bad their offenses
look if you look at just service level numbers, thirtieth
in offensive rating and points per game. But you know,
from a trend perspective, they're four and eight to the over,
meaning they've gone under, you know, majority of the time.
But all four of their overs this season have come
as home underdog, which is the situation they're in today.
Blazers have been a solid over team ninety three to
the over this season, including five and over as favorites,
and that obviously they're their favorite today. I mentioned the
MAVs poor offensive numbers, but the Blazers defense is just, uh,
you know, twenty second in defensive rating. Both teams top
five in pace on the season, so a lot of
things for me. I think opportunity is the best thing
in in NBA, So if there's opportunities to score, you
got to look towards over. I think the efficiency numbers
on the offensive side of the ball for the maps
will get better, you know, I think from a proper perspective,
I know, I think Flag had zero assists in his
last game. But when you get guys like Gafford and
Lively back and a d whenever he gets back, he's
He's one of those players who can who can be allowed,
you know, be the pick and roll and the assist
guy on the lob threat. He could do a lot
of things just because of how versatile he is. So
this is one of those situations where I think, from
a proper perspective, you bounce back, you get up and over.
Speaker 5: His three and a half assist today too.
Speaker 2: Man off Kabang catch him over at ukapper sports. What
are you promote in today?
Speaker 7: I think the NBA, NFL, and there's a I think
there's a all access pass right now that is by
two months to get the third one for free. October
was great. We went up and over sixty units November
early November, we were hitting everything.
Speaker 5: Last three or four.
Speaker 7: Days though it's been the opposite, so it's been coming
down a little bit. You can't hit sixty percent on
four sports, you know, for that long of a period.
So I did hit a wall the last three or
four days, but well we'll bounce back. The NBA is where,
like you said, my bread and butter is and where
everyone has kind of known me for. But uh, top
three in profit in NHL, NBA, NFL Premier League. So
a lot of things going really well for me right now.
So that's that's the deal that's going on. By two months,
get the third one for free.
Speaker 2: And I guys, we've got this last question from Andrew.
He said, are you a believer in the Pistons?
Speaker 1: Man?
Speaker 7: You know, this Pistons team has been very surprising. I
not gonna lie I took. I went against them the
last two games, where both Kid and Duran has been
you know, set out. I just didn't think these guys,
role players would step up in the way that they have.
So you know, their coach has them believing in their
process and their team. He's pulling the best at all
his players. And when you have a coach like that's
that's definitely a threat. So I do believe in this
Detroit team.
Speaker 2: Donald Bang, Thanks, it's always for coming on here on
last call on a Sunday. Good luck to those Vets tonight.
Speaker 5: Thanks to you too.
Speaker 2: I've got some props that I like. And just so
anyone knows, Miami Dolphins just ran in a touchdown, so
it was oh, Gordon ran it in. So it is
now thirteen to twelve, pending the extra point by Miami
out there in Madrid, So definitely keep an eye on
that game as we're in the fourth lay prop I
call them the prop Queen edges on the Prop Queen Pod,
which you could check out back to six pm Monday
through Friday Eastern Time, give out all the best props
of the day, and I always bring on other kaffers
who specialize in the props market the one pm slate.
I've got a few props that stood out to me.
Bears quarterback Williams under thirty two and a half past attempts.
He went over this with thirty five and his last
start in September against the Vikings. The same result usually
doesn't happen twice, so Williams has gone under thirty two
and a half pass attempts in three or four divisional
road games since the start of last year. The Vikings
have allowed the fifth least pass attempts per game to quarterbacks.
Four of the last five quarterbacks to face the Vikings
in Minnesota went under their past attempts PROP, so under
pass attempts for Caleb Williams. Michael Pennick Junior under his
rushing yards so again a divisional game, Game two of
the season. He went over this with nine in the
first game against the Panthers. However, the number six and
a half. The Panthers have allowed the second least rushing
yards per game to quarterbacks. Seventy percent of quarterbacks went
under their rushing yards PROP against the Panthers. Pennick Junior
did go over with nine rushing yards again in game one,
so I'm going to fade it go under in game two.
My favorite play of the one o'clock slate is Trevor Lawrence,
the Jacks quarterback under nineteen and a half completions at
even money. You can also look at the two ten
and a half passing yards for an under at minus
one twelve. Since the start of the season or sorry,
since the start of last season, Trevor Lawrence is averaging
just under sixteen completions, just under twenty eight pass attempts,
and one hundred and eighty nine passing yards when facing
a top ten pass d The Chargers have allowed the
fifth least completions and fifth least passing yards per game
this season. It's why seventy percent of the quarterbacks have
gone under their completions and passing yards prop when facing
the Chargers. So those are three plays that you could
take a look at for the one pm Eastern timeslate.
If you want any more, then you could go to
the prop Queen dot Com. I always on the newsletter
am giving out to all the subscribers on Sundays. Everybody
gets every prop that I like on the board. It
doesn't mean I bet them all. I just give you
my long list because sometimes you all know you have
a long list, you condense it and you end up
leaving off some winners. So I just give you guys
every edge that I see in the market in the
prop queen dot com newsletter, and you could pay eight
ninety nine a month or seventeen ninety nine a month,
depending if you want one or two newsletters to day,
and I'll give you guys all the updates on the
prep queen dot com for the best prop edges. If
you guys do want some more VR, because I know
the chat wants some more VR. He is coming up
in ten minutes on the steam room. And again it
is a free offer today, so you get access for
free to VR's steam room right after last Call and
then go to WT dot Buds slash Insiders. It's two
ninety nine a month, two dollars and ninety nine cents
a month. You get early access to shows like bet
on It and some specialty segments, and today you get
free access to VR's steamroom and you guys will get
everything on the board. He's going through every single game.
So if he missed Anny and you guys want more, VR,
head over to the steam room at noon Eastern time
in about nine minutes. Here on waiter Talks Last Call,
we were joined today by VR, John Murray, Rold Kabang.
Thank you to all our guests. Thank you to everybody
in the comments section for contributing to the show today.
If you can, please go to the YouTube page over
at wager Talk and like and subscribe. It really means
a lot for you guys interacting with us and continuing
to help grow the wager Talk family. For me, the
prop quenarial Epstein.
Speaker 3: That is it.
Speaker 2: We will see you guys next week here on wager
Talks Last Call.