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Speaker 1: Love.

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Speaker 2: It is Last Call Sunday. I'm the brad Queen Aria Epstein,

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finally back here in New York City and on the

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East Coast, ready to give you guys some winners here

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on Wager Talks Last Call. We've got great guests today

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as always. It's Yanni the Greek joining us from Las

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Vegas telling you where all the sharp baction's coming in.

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The steam Room will be live today. And we've got

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a special offer today which I'll get to in a second.

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John Murray from the Westgates Superbook, and they give us

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all the needs. We know how much my favorite group

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Chat loves the needs. So we got the needs of

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the day for the super Book over there at the

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Westgate in Las Vegas. Ronald Kbang going to join the

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show and end this show with the Bang. We'll talk

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some NFL, We'll talk maybe a little NBA. I Oka Bang.

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That's where his bread and butter is the deal, the

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deal that we have to get to today. So if

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you love what Yannie tells you and you love the

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ninety nine a month for the insiders so waitter Talk Insiders,

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you go to WT dot buzz slash Insiders is the

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web page you get the VR steam room today for free.

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But what does the two ninety nine a month give you? Well,

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it gives you early access to shows like bet on

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It and specialty segments. So I actually was texting Kelly

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a few weeks ago when this was new, and I said,

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kel why can't I access bet on It yet? And

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she said, oh, because our insiders get it first and

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then you guys get it later. And I was like,

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damn okay. So the insiders get bet on It first,

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you get all that early action early, just for two

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ninety nine a month, So that would be very helpful. Again,

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WT dot Buzz slash Insiders. I watch bet on It

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every week because I love being able to talk to

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Yanny the Greeks, see how he feels on those Wednesdays

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when they record, and then how he feels on Sunday

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right before kickoff. We've got all the action that you need.

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I'll get props to you at the end of the show,

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but first spring on Yanni the gree Glyde from Las Vegas,

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VR Vegas Runner, whatever you'd like to call him. Yanni,

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But I know that usually we have a little BS talk,

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but before we get to any BS talk, before we

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talk about anything later on. Today it's halftime in this

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game in Spain. Has any action come in for halftime?

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Speaker 3: No?

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Speaker 4: Nothing in the second half. But we're on Washington. Took

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Washington at plus three. Also got Washington in a couple

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of those plus ev teasers.

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Speaker 3: As well, But yeah, we're on the Washington side.

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Speaker 4: I'm not seeing anything except under the unders getting hit

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in the second half. No surprise, low scoring first half,

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but yeah, I like Washington. I don't like the second

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half line now because their minus a half in the

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second half tells you at plus three we got a

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good bet. So hopefully we start off with a four

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percent winner. You got me at a good time, are

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I'm coming off a huge, huge weekend, I said coming in.

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I've won coming into this week. I was had on

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like ten of eleven weeks in college football. I had it,

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and I'm coming off a losing week. I said, I'm

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going to progress towards the mean. That's exactly what we

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should do. And we bounced back with a fourteen and

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six week in college.

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Speaker 3: Football with the weekday.

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Speaker 4: Games and Saturday games, So seventy percent college football, seven

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and two in MMA, hit our five percent, five and

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Oho four percent.

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Speaker 3: Just the crushing couple days. And I love this NFL card.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, Washington, you can't get three, but I like

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Washington to get the cover.

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Speaker 3: We're running hot right now. So yeah, yeah, it's a good.

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Speaker 2: Time of the NFL card for Week eleven. Why.

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Speaker 4: I just think this is that time where people have

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already drawn conclusions, just like in college football, and you're

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able to pick apart like so many of those narratives.

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Speaker 3: Perfect example. I'm going to talk about them again.

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Speaker 4: Everybody thinks I have something personal against Texas A and M,

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but that was a perfect example yesterday.

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Speaker 3: And I'm not knocking Texas A and M.

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Speaker 4: My argument was that they were not a top three team,

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and yet they've been in the top five for so

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long and they barely just cracked my top ten. And

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that's why I thought there was a ton of value

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looking to fade them. I'm not saying they're going to lose,

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but what I'm saying is they're being overvalued by the

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betting market. Usually you'll get a place of good bet

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going against that, and it's like that in the NFL

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right now. You saw the look aheads get demolished on

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some of these games today simply because of what happens someday,

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like one result of last week, and we saw so

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many of these lines go from pick them to now

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minus three. We saw it with the Chargers, we saw

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it with San Francisco. We saw it with so many

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of those games that went from even as a one

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point dog and now they're the favorite, all because of

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recency bias.

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Speaker 3: So I just think when that's.

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Speaker 4: The case and you're seeing line movements like that in

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the NFL, there's money to be made because usually they

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have so much confidence in their NFL lines, they're tight.

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There's not value either way Team MAY or Team B

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when lane eleven to win ten.

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Speaker 2: It's funny, though, because you talk about these teams that

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might be overvalued by the book. You're wearing a forty

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nine Ers hat today. You've been wearing a Phillies hat

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for a few weeks, but now you switch to forty

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nine Ers. That's a team that every week I am

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waiting to take advantage because I feel the books overvalued them.

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Until this week. That line against Arizona seems very fishy.

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Because it's so short, facing a struggling Cardinals team, and

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the Niners have all these injuries, but yet they keep

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finding ways to it.

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Speaker 3: Here's my problem. I placed the bad bet. I'm on Arizona.

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Speaker 4: I took Arizona plus three, and I even had to

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lay a little bit of vig to get plus three.

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So now I'm trying to be hoping to be the

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product of good luck because we didn't place a great bet.

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That's the bottom line. If you get plus three and

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a half today and I have a plus three ticket

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in my pocket, then I did wrong by my subscribers. Fortunately,

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we get out ahead of the market more times than not.

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But when you try to do that, you will be

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wrong on occasion. And in this case, like now, I

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don't like that that position because of that that significant

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line move and.

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Speaker 3: Yesterday the bet on It result.

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Speaker 4: My only loss was Michigan State, and when we did

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the show, that was the only dog. I had actually

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a premium off until that time, but I had bet

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it earlier in the week, and by the time we

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went to bed bet on It, forgive me they it

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went through the key number of seven to seven and

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a half, and I had taken them at seven, and

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I tried to stress I no longer have that same

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amount of confidence, but since they're the only dog, I'm

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gonna have to use them. They ended up losing. I'm

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not telling you Arizona's going to lose, but what I'm

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saying is at plus three, I didn't place a great bet.

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But I just think this, this uh San Francisco team. Yeah,

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I think they're a little bit overvalued. I think the

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party situation is adding a premium that I don't think

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is warranted. I like how this Arizona team just doesn't

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lose by margin. Even when they do lose, you know

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what I mean, they don't get blown out, which shows

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me effort.

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Speaker 3: Now, I get it.

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Speaker 4: This line isn't like six or seven points, so they

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don't you know that San Francisco don't have to blow

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them out to cover.

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Speaker 3: But I do like how well they play when they

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are dogs.

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Speaker 4: And more importantly, they haven't played well at all at home,

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and I think that's going to change. Like historically they

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play better at home than they do on the road.

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That hasn't been the case so far this year. So

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I think all those little factors are giving us more

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points than we should be getting in with Arizona. But

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I don't like this three and a half right now.

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I'm just keeping it real.

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Speaker 2: I know that you have the Steam room coming up,

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so give us a little bit of insights into some

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of the steam that we've seen throughout the week, and

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then I'll ask you my individual questions and the group

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chats quest.

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Speaker 4: Yes, yes, yes, for selfish reasons, that's what I'm here for.

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Speaker 3: Tell me what you need Ariel.

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Speaker 2: Okay, sir, I have some big questions of some of

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the big games, starting with I know I'm bet on it.

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A big talking point was that Brown Ghost Chiefs game.

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Huge game for the Broncos, a chance to essentially take

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the Chiefs out of Division contention, giving the Broncos a

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much better shot at this division going head to head

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with those Chargers. I know, v are you and I

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are on the Chargers with a lot of futures, But

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what about those Broncos today and the line moving in

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favor of the Chiefs.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and they're starting to pile up on the Kansas

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City side at least early on. And you can't forget

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the look ahead on this game was two and a half. Okay,

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they brought it out at two and a half that

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got hit immediately went the two minus one twenty went

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to three to three minus one twenty three and a

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half four four and a half. So the Kansas City

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money continues coming in. You can't bet Kansas City right now.

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That boat's gone. It's long gone. Unless you have the

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ability to move markets and bring it back.

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Speaker 3: Let that go.

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Speaker 4: You're not placing a great bet. That's what I try

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to stress more than anything else. Regardless of whether Kansas

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City goes out there and covers this game, it's not

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a good bet right now because we have line movement

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all week, meaning I could have got a much better

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bet if I placed it any time other than today.

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So why would I want to place it today? Again,

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I'm just not getting the best of it. The only

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way I'd be getting the best of it with Kansas

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City is if this line closes six, and I don't

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think that's going to happen. So it gives me one choice.

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Do I like Denver or doing't I like Denver? Well,

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here's what I know about Denver. They have a strong

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home field advantage they always have, but more importantly this year,

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they haven't lost a single game at home compared to

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being only three and two on the road, so obviously

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strong home field advantage. Then look at the split for

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Kansas City four and one at home, one and three

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on the road, so the split heavily favors the Denver Broncos.

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I look at the head to head matchup. Denver's won

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two of the last three against them. More importantly, even

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when Denver's lost, they covered plenty of games. They've covered

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in fact, six of the last ten, so they've been profitable.

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Speaker 5: Against Kansas City.

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Speaker 3: Right now, for me, it's Denver or pass.

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Speaker 4: Automatically, there's no way you could get me to bet

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Kansas City because I just don't bet bad numbers, and

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right now that's exactly what you're getting with Kansas City.

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So for me, it's take the four and a half

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with the Denver Broncos or leave it alone. I haven't

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bet it yet, but I like the Broncos.

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Speaker 2: Mitchell Brothers three asked my next question thoughts on Matt

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Lions Eagles game. It hasn't moved either. It's been two

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and a half. I know Kelly and I spoke about,

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Oh tease the Lions. It's plus two and a half.

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Great teaser leg how about a side.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and disclaimer, I've done really well at these primetime games.

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I think something like fourteen and two, thirteen and three three.

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Speaker 2: It's so funny. Kelly and I were talking about this.

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People think, oh, we're two girls in Aruba that were

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just beaching. No, we like wake up and we're talking football,

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she said. I said to her, you know it's hard

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when you guys on bet On It have to talk

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about primetime games all the time. She said, yeah, VR

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felt that way, and his primetime games have been absolutely

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crushing it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. I get the TV.

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Speaker 4: I've been just on fire with these freaking TV games.

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But the disclaimer is I get really good confirmation late

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because I've gotten really good at deciphering based on what

240
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happens earlier, so I kind of wait to see what

241
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happens during the day. Make a long story short, here's

242
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what I have going in. I just don't want to

243
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paint myself in a corner and say I like the

244
00:11:18,799 --> 00:11:21,159
over and then end up firing a four percent play

245
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on the under. But here's what I can tell you.

246
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The under has gotten steam. There's a lot of sharp

247
00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:30,080
money that has come in on the under. With Philadelphia

248
00:11:30,159 --> 00:11:33,080
and Detroit. No surprise, the public is going to bet

249
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that one over, so that's going to balance out that total.

250
00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:38,639
That's not why not you're not seeing huge, huge, huge

251
00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:42,159
line movements as far as the signe goes. Also saw

252
00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:46,000
sharp money on Philadelphia minus one and a half and

253
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minus two. That's why you're looking at two and a

254
00:11:48,919 --> 00:11:52,120
half and juice that most of the sharp shops.

255
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Speaker 3: The key is is it getting to three.

256
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Speaker 4: If it gets to three, I think it makes a

257
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really strong case for Philadelphia, meaning if you're willing to

258
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give if the market's given Detroit three points in Philly

259
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when on paper Detroit's the number one power rated team,

260
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at least in my power ratings, it tells you there's

261
00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:15,080
a lot of sharp money defending that Philadelphia at anything

262
00:12:15,159 --> 00:12:18,879
less than a field goal. I don't disagree with Kelly's

263
00:12:18,919 --> 00:12:22,720
move on taking Detroit up to nine eight and a half,

264
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especially with the total being hit down towards the under.

265
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I lean Philadelphia, but that has nothing to do with

266
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my teasers. Teasers are simply bet because you have the

267
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number and you know you're placing a plus TV bet.

268
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Your opinion shouldn't come into into the picture at all.

269
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When you're placing teasers, So I do lean Detroit on

270
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the teaser side, but I like Philadelphia for the game

271
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they're coming in. Hut won three straight games, covered three

272
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straight games. Usually you're gonna be a little overvalued in

273
00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:55,240
that spot, but because it's Detroit on the other side

274
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of the football, that's not the case. So you were

275
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getting Philly at a discount that's not discounted no more.

276
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That's the problem I'm having. Like if I got down

277
00:13:02,519 --> 00:13:05,159
on Philly on the money line when this first opened up,

278
00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:07,720
I kicked my feet up. Regardless of outcome. I placed

279
00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:11,000
a great bet right now. If I bet Philly unless

280
00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:13,759
it closes three, I didn't really place the great bet,

281
00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:16,919
but I do lean the Philadelphia side right now, hoping

282
00:13:17,919 --> 00:13:21,039
to get some kind of confirmation, maybe even on the total,

283
00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:24,759
because again primetime has been where the money is, and

284
00:13:24,799 --> 00:13:26,840
so far we have a difference of opinion.

285
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Speaker 3: Sharp's over I mean Sharp's under.

286
00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:32,720
Speaker 4: Public over see where that takes us bucks bills.

287
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Speaker 2: That's one of the biggest games at the one pm

288
00:13:34,759 --> 00:13:37,799
Eastern time slate. Steam is on the bills minus five

289
00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:40,480
and a half to six and a half total, dropping

290
00:13:40,519 --> 00:13:42,440
though fifteen and a half to forty six and a half.

291
00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:44,879
What are you seeing on this bucks Bills gave me.

292
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Speaker 3: On me again.

293
00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:48,840
Speaker 4: I wonder if it's weather related out there in Buffalo.

294
00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:53,559
Obviously wintertime we gotta start paying attention to that with

295
00:13:53,639 --> 00:13:54,320
the totals.

296
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Speaker 3: But again with the weather.

297
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Speaker 4: Unless you get out ahead of the weather, it really

298
00:13:56,960 --> 00:13:59,679
doesn't matter after the adjustment's made. Like if you got

299
00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:02,120
under forty nine and a half and now it's forty

300
00:14:02,159 --> 00:14:03,720
six and a half because of the weather, you place

301
00:14:03,799 --> 00:14:05,639
the great bet, But going under forty six and a

302
00:14:05,679 --> 00:14:07,960
half because the weather's bat the value is.

303
00:14:07,919 --> 00:14:08,559
Speaker 3: No longer there.

304
00:14:08,639 --> 00:14:10,279
Speaker 4: That was at forty eight and a half, forty nine

305
00:14:10,279 --> 00:14:11,480
and a half forty seven and a half.

306
00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:13,720
Speaker 3: See where I'm going with that. As far as the

307
00:14:13,799 --> 00:14:15,799
side goes, I like Tampa Bay.

308
00:14:16,919 --> 00:14:19,559
Speaker 4: I haven't gotten to the window with it because of

309
00:14:19,639 --> 00:14:23,600
the sharp money I'm respecting on the Buffalo Bill's side.

310
00:14:24,759 --> 00:14:29,000
But here's the thing, you got a huge advantage on

311
00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:31,919
the quarterback side. I know Mayfield's has been playing good,

312
00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:34,039
but when you look at his passing success rate, he's

313
00:14:34,039 --> 00:14:36,960
in the bottom five of the NFL. That's keeping me

314
00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:41,480
off of Tampa Bay and also Buffalo coming in off

315
00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:44,159
a loss where they got blown out by Miami as

316
00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:47,080
eight point favorites. Like, that's what's kept me off it.

317
00:14:47,279 --> 00:14:50,080
Gum the head. I think the sharp side gets it

318
00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:54,399
done Buffalo where this line sits right now, I just

319
00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:55,679
can't get to the window.

320
00:14:55,399 --> 00:14:59,320
Speaker 2: With them another game, this one the chat just brought up.

321
00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:02,000
Let me see who just brought it up now, Oh,

322
00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:07,519
David talk uh Jaggs San Diego. Well, La, they moved

323
00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:10,279
from one and a half to three the Chargers, And

324
00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:12,720
now that's the key number of three that I'm seeing,

325
00:15:13,399 --> 00:15:14,879
Jags Chargers.

326
00:15:14,879 --> 00:15:17,879
Speaker 4: What do you say, Yeah, they'll always be San Diego

327
00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:19,799
to me that that's.

328
00:15:19,759 --> 00:15:22,799
Speaker 2: Always politically correct sometimes.

329
00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:25,679
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yeah, they're the way up up to three

330
00:15:25,799 --> 00:15:29,799
now and like you said, the totals dropping. Also, i'd

331
00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:32,679
actually like the over, but again, you've got to give

332
00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:34,200
respect when you're seeing.

333
00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:39,039
Speaker 3: That kind of line movement, and that kind of keeps

334
00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:39,799
me off of it.

335
00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:42,759
Speaker 4: As far as the side goes, I'm not surprised that

336
00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:46,120
the line's moved on the Chargers. If the sharp money's

337
00:15:46,159 --> 00:15:48,480
gotten down on them, it's getting out ahead of the market.

338
00:15:48,519 --> 00:15:51,000
Why because you have a Chargers team that's coming in red.

339
00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:51,480
Speaker 3: Huh.

340
00:15:51,519 --> 00:15:54,080
Speaker 4: They've won three straight games. They've won four of their

341
00:15:54,159 --> 00:15:57,039
last five. They've covered two out of the last three

342
00:15:57,360 --> 00:16:00,960
across from them Jacksonville. Other than being home, what have

343
00:16:01,039 --> 00:16:04,960
they done. They've only had one cover since October sixth,

344
00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:09,120
Like they're they're not really been all that impressive. But

345
00:16:09,399 --> 00:16:10,960
I think this line is a little bit too high

346
00:16:11,039 --> 00:16:15,159
right now at three Again in the NFL, these lines

347
00:16:15,200 --> 00:16:17,840
are so tight, like a line movement like that, I

348
00:16:18,679 --> 00:16:21,320
don't think is warranted. I just don't see any reason

349
00:16:21,679 --> 00:16:26,000
why the Chargers should be a field goal favorite over Jacksonville.

350
00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:28,919
What would they be a touchdown at home? I just

351
00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:31,879
don't see it. I mean, they were three against Pittsburgh,

352
00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:34,000
they were three against Minnesota, two and a half against

353
00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:34,759
Indiana at home.

354
00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:35,720
Speaker 3: I just don't see it.

355
00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:39,120
Speaker 4: So for me, I like the dog here, the home

356
00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:42,679
dog in the Jacksonville Jaguars. But I haven't bet this

357
00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:43,240
one either.

358
00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:46,159
Speaker 2: The chat wants to know about Bears Vikings as well.

359
00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:50,559
Speaker 4: Oh, a lot of sharp money on Minnesota, a lot

360
00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:54,279
of public money on Minnesota. Also, this is one where

361
00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:57,360
you have everybody on an island. And why isn't this

362
00:16:57,440 --> 00:17:00,000
at three? Why did it get to three and get.

363
00:16:59,799 --> 00:17:02,279
Speaker 2: The Chad said they could grab a three right now.

364
00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:05,319
Speaker 4: Because it's gone to three exactly, it's gone to three,

365
00:17:05,599 --> 00:17:08,000
and yet it kept getting picked off. It went to

366
00:17:08,039 --> 00:17:11,119
three this morning at certain spots it got picked off.

367
00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:12,920
Speaker 3: So someone's out.

368
00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:15,240
Speaker 4: There, some groups out there that thinks that plus three

369
00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:18,880
Chicago's the side. And it looks like the books kind

370
00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:21,519
of like that as well, because they're letting you come

371
00:17:21,559 --> 00:17:23,559
in at two and a half.

372
00:17:23,759 --> 00:17:25,559
Speaker 3: Like again, some of the shops are.

373
00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:27,880
Speaker 4: At three, but there's still plenty of two and a

374
00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:30,759
half's out there, And for me, that's a telling sign.

375
00:17:31,799 --> 00:17:35,960
I don't have any confidence in betting Minnesota when I

376
00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:38,640
see the market like this, I mean, you have Chicago,

377
00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:41,240
they've just played better this year, Like this is more

378
00:17:41,319 --> 00:17:48,400
on You're you're more or less guessing that Minnesota is

379
00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:51,279
the better team because they haven't done it on paper.

380
00:17:51,599 --> 00:17:54,079
So like you're you're going way out there on that

381
00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:57,200
risk curve guessing that they're going to produce when they

382
00:17:57,240 --> 00:17:59,960
have it, And to me, I just don't see it again.

383
00:18:00,039 --> 00:18:02,759
And I respect the short money on Minnesota, but I

384
00:18:02,799 --> 00:18:03,920
don't like that side.

385
00:18:04,599 --> 00:18:07,519
Speaker 2: Yeah, we talk about this big game Seattle Rams and

386
00:18:07,559 --> 00:18:09,160
then you know that the last question I'm going to

387
00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:11,960
ask you is going to be about my Ravens and Browns,

388
00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:14,559
because I know you like the Brownies this week, Yanni.

389
00:18:14,759 --> 00:18:16,799
And the last thing I need for my first day

390
00:18:16,799 --> 00:18:20,079
back in New York after being in a relaxing vacation

391
00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:23,279
in Aruba for two weeks is to watch my Ravens loose.

392
00:18:23,759 --> 00:18:26,079
Speaker 3: Live in the dream, Live in the dream, Live in

393
00:18:26,079 --> 00:18:31,039
the dream. Good for you. Now you're getting good two

394
00:18:31,039 --> 00:18:32,519
way action on this game.

395
00:18:33,279 --> 00:18:36,880
Speaker 2: Which one Ram Seattle or Browns Ravens Ram Seattle.

396
00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:58,599
Speaker 3: Yeah, where it sits? Now? These games. The only way

397
00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:01,160
I could look to play this game, Mario, is look

398
00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:02,119
to the under.

399
00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:06,440
Speaker 4: Look to the under, because this total's jacked up because

400
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:09,759
of what they've done recently. Like you have set the

401
00:19:09,839 --> 00:19:13,039
Rams coming in scoring what thirty four more points in

402
00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:17,240
three straight games Seattle twenty seven or more three straight games.

403
00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:20,440
But when you look at head to head other than

404
00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:24,240
the January game that went over and that total was

405
00:19:24,279 --> 00:19:26,960
only thirty eight and a half, Let's not forget it

406
00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:29,960
was an under series, like four straight unders with not

407
00:19:30,039 --> 00:19:33,559
all that high totals. This total's jack for these two teams.

408
00:19:33,599 --> 00:19:36,000
Remember last year's total was thirty eight and a half.

409
00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:39,039
It's now forty eight and a half, big adjustment. I

410
00:19:39,039 --> 00:19:42,640
don't think it's warranted. I like the under Cleveland. Listen, man,

411
00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:47,599
I like the brownies here. And here's why. I understand

412
00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:51,960
that the excitement for Baltimore and having Lamar Jackson back,

413
00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:55,799
I get how big of a PC is, but I

414
00:19:55,880 --> 00:20:02,119
do think that, like most quarterbacks, their overvalue in his

415
00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:06,519
actual worth to the betting line. And with Cleveland, they've

416
00:20:06,559 --> 00:20:09,200
just played them tough in this series. Not only have

417
00:20:09,319 --> 00:20:12,160
they covered against them, they've won straight up five of

418
00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:14,480
the last ten games. So like this has been one

419
00:20:14,519 --> 00:20:18,880
of those series that has a bad team like Cleveland

420
00:20:19,079 --> 00:20:22,039
showing up for whatever reason. And now that it's over

421
00:20:22,079 --> 00:20:24,400
a touchdown, I locked it in an eight and a half,

422
00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:27,680
so it shows you more sharp betters agree with me.

423
00:20:27,759 --> 00:20:31,440
With this line dropping and with Baltimore coming in, covering games,

424
00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:35,119
winning and covering with Lamar back, I expected that this

425
00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:38,799
was going to be a nice high spread I could

426
00:20:38,839 --> 00:20:42,319
take advantage of. And like I said, as ugly, I

427
00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:45,759
can't really defend the Cleveland side. It's more of a

428
00:20:45,759 --> 00:20:49,079
fade of Baltimore than a bet on Cleveland. I like

429
00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,119
when it's the perfect storm and a fade on one

430
00:20:51,319 --> 00:20:52,240
and a bet on the other.

431
00:20:52,519 --> 00:20:53,680
Speaker 3: But this isn't that case.

432
00:20:53,759 --> 00:20:56,599
Speaker 4: I can't really defend Cleveland other than strength of schedule.

433
00:20:56,880 --> 00:20:59,559
But it's a fade of Baltimore, who I think that

434
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:03,039
the the price isn't warranted and we got a good

435
00:21:03,079 --> 00:21:04,400
bed at eight and a half at seven and a

436
00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:05,559
half now, so I'll take it.

437
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:08,079
Speaker 2: Yeah, it won't surprise me if the Ravens make me

438
00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:12,119
sweat this one after exactly a week. Yeah, it's hard

439
00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:16,759
to win. Uh and cover an Yes, they are.

440
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:17,720
Speaker 3: I'm running hot.

441
00:21:18,039 --> 00:21:21,039
Speaker 4: I'm running hot, and I just in football, I'm feeling

442
00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:22,519
it like there's nothing better.

443
00:21:22,559 --> 00:21:23,559
Speaker 3: When they're just love that.

444
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:26,200
Speaker 2: It's like in baseball when everyone says you're seeing it

445
00:21:26,279 --> 00:21:29,000
like a beach exactly, that's exactly what he's acting.

446
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:31,759
Speaker 4: You're like, nope, no, no, no, nope, okay that one

447
00:21:31,839 --> 00:21:33,200
that and it's it's beautiful.

448
00:21:33,319 --> 00:21:35,319
Speaker 2: I love how active the chat's been, and I know

449
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:37,119
that you are. You've got the steam room coming up?

450
00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:37,759
Speaker 3: What time?

451
00:21:38,039 --> 00:21:40,559
Speaker 2: Where can everybody find the rest of your voting?

452
00:21:40,759 --> 00:21:42,680
Speaker 4: Top of the hour? Top of the hour. We're gonna

453
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:45,400
go through every single game as much as time permits,

454
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:49,160
at least all the early games. Signs totals player props.

455
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:51,960
Fifteen minutes before kickoff, we will put together the plus

456
00:21:52,039 --> 00:21:55,279
ev tasers that have been money for us, and of

457
00:21:55,319 --> 00:21:58,079
course any of the live bets that come in, and

458
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:00,319
I'm there to answer all your questions. We get to

459
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:04,559
celebrate our results of late and focus on what's ahead. Baby,

460
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,920
jump on board, because there's a lot coming up between

461
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:08,880
now and the end of the year.

462
00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:11,200
Speaker 3: Do some damage Aerial. Thank you for having me.

463
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:15,000
Speaker 2: Thanks so much, Johnny, have a profitable Sunday, and everybody,

464
00:22:15,039 --> 00:22:18,480
remember that you could join wager Talk Insiders and you

465
00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:21,039
could get access for free to the steam room today

466
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:24,400
WT dot Buzz Slash Insiders. It's only two ninety nine

467
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:26,640
a month early access to shows like bet on It

468
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:29,599
and some specialty segments. So today you get that free

469
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:32,279
access to be our steam room. Right after we end

470
00:22:32,319 --> 00:22:35,319
here on last call coming up now, we've got my

471
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:38,880
great friend John Murray joining us from over at the

472
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,559
Superbook in Las Vegas. I'm back in New York.

473
00:22:41,599 --> 00:22:44,200
Speaker 3: By the way, JM, how was Aba?

474
00:22:45,279 --> 00:22:48,200
Speaker 2: It was amazing. Your girl Kelly and I we had

475
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:51,039
a great time. She ends up hitting did you see that?

476
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,640
She ended up using the pats in that like NFL

477
00:22:53,799 --> 00:22:54,440
slot game.

478
00:22:54,799 --> 00:22:57,839
Speaker 6: She ended up king why weren't why didn't you appear

479
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,079
on the Kelly and Murray Show On the side she

480
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:00,720
was working.

481
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 2: You guys did the show while I did my show.

482
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:06,079
Speaker 1: You were doing a show at the same time. Yeah, okay,

483
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:07,000
that's a pretty good exceps.

484
00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:08,960
Speaker 2: I kicked her out to the balcony because she did

485
00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:11,559
way more shows than me this week, so I told

486
00:23:11,599 --> 00:23:13,559
her that she had to go to the balcony. I'm

487
00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:15,039
just using the inside room.

488
00:23:15,519 --> 00:23:17,759
Speaker 6: Well, one thing that I noticed was because she was

489
00:23:17,799 --> 00:23:20,680
on the balcony, there was so much noise out there,

490
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:23,000
so she was on mute the whole time. So it

491
00:23:23,079 --> 00:23:26,400
was basically just me talking into the camera while she

492
00:23:26,519 --> 00:23:29,400
did nothing. So it's kind of like the opposite of

493
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:31,599
our normal show where she never shuts up, you know,

494
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:35,720
and I just sit there. But it was kind of

495
00:23:35,759 --> 00:23:37,799
it was a different style episode for us. It was

496
00:23:37,839 --> 00:23:39,559
mostly me talking.

497
00:23:39,759 --> 00:23:42,440
Speaker 1: I don't know if that's probably not what the audience wants.

498
00:23:42,519 --> 00:23:46,039
Speaker 2: She was on vacasion. She was in zen mode, right.

499
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:47,759
I think she was just kind of ready to go

500
00:23:47,799 --> 00:23:50,119
get some more Margarita's. But now we're sober for a while.

501
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,000
Until her birthday Okay.

502
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,400
Speaker 1: That's in like ten days, nine days.

503
00:23:54,519 --> 00:23:56,880
Speaker 2: Wow, I'm just kidding. I'll be sober till Friday. But

504
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:59,000
that's a long stretch after being on a beach for

505
00:23:59,039 --> 00:24:01,359
two weeks and taking advance of every happy hour like

506
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:04,000
a degenerate. Let's get to the needs of the day.

507
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:06,599
Because the jack keeps asking. I told them eleven twenty

508
00:24:06,599 --> 00:24:10,119
am Eastern time, so they're like, where are the needs? JM,

509
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:10,640
where are.

510
00:24:10,559 --> 00:24:11,880
Speaker 1: They in the morning.

511
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:14,839
Speaker 6: Definitely looks like Jacksonville is our biggest need. They're at

512
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:19,160
home against the Chargers. We need We'll need Jacksonville pretty big. Actually,

513
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:24,359
we'll need Carolina, Carolina on the road against Atlanta. We

514
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:27,200
took a lot of money on Buffalo, so I've seen

515
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:29,279
Buffalo go from a five and a half point favorite

516
00:24:29,279 --> 00:24:32,039
to a six point favorite. We need the We need

517
00:24:32,039 --> 00:24:34,440
the Buccaneers pretty big as well. That one surprised me

518
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:36,519
a little. I thought that game would be a little

519
00:24:36,519 --> 00:24:39,039
more even, but it's not. We need the We need

520
00:24:39,039 --> 00:24:41,440
the Bucks, the Buccaneers. We need the Giants.

521
00:24:42,279 --> 00:24:45,279
Speaker 2: The Giants at home against and that's so fun.

522
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,759
Speaker 6: Yeah, Oh, I can't wait. I love James Winston. I

523
00:24:48,799 --> 00:24:50,279
forgot about that for a second. There.

524
00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:51,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, we will, So let's go.

525
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 6: Let's talk about the afternoon because we don't win afternoon games.

526
00:24:56,319 --> 00:24:58,920
We lose every afternoon game every week for as long

527
00:24:58,960 --> 00:24:59,640
as I can remember.

528
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,559
Speaker 1: We lost of them all last week. We will need.

529
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:08,359
Speaker 6: Arizona there at home against San Francisco. We'll need Denver

530
00:25:09,079 --> 00:25:11,839
at home against Kansas City. We don't really have much

531
00:25:11,839 --> 00:25:14,319
of a need in the Seattle game. I mean, we

532
00:25:14,319 --> 00:25:17,960
need Seattle for a little bit, but nothing significant. And

533
00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:23,079
we need Cleveland Cleveland against Baltimore. No, that's good. We

534
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:25,200
lose every afternoon game. Look at the look at the

535
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:27,039
afternoon last week there were three games.

536
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:29,359
Speaker 2: I know we were really pissed at your needs last week.

537
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:33,480
To be honest, we usually, like one.

538
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:36,079
Speaker 6: Thing I've noticed the last this season and the second

539
00:25:36,079 --> 00:25:38,559
half of last season, we seem to always do well

540
00:25:38,559 --> 00:25:40,720
in the morning. We seem to always have a nice

541
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,240
cushion after the ten am games. Then we just lose

542
00:25:43,279 --> 00:25:46,880
every afternoon game, and then we try to regroup on

543
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:47,880
Sunday night football.

544
00:25:48,079 --> 00:25:52,039
Speaker 1: Really good Sunday night game. Yeah, this week Lions Eagles

545
00:25:52,079 --> 00:25:52,680
in Philly.

546
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 6: We actually need Philly right now for a little not

547
00:25:56,839 --> 00:25:58,799
a big decision, but we do have a little bit

548
00:25:58,799 --> 00:26:00,000
more money on Detroit.

549
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:03,279
Speaker 2: You think that does we get closer to kickoff or

550
00:26:03,319 --> 00:26:05,359
you think it'll stay pretty much Philly that you need.

551
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:07,920
Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to be a big need period.

552
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:09,839
Speaker 6: I think it's I think it's gonna be similar to

553
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:12,920
the Seattle game in the afternoon, where people are betting

554
00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:15,599
both sides. I don't I don't see it being a

555
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:19,160
game that really dictates our bottom line today. I think

556
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,119
it's I think there are two it's just like the

557
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:24,559
Seattle game, two very very good teams, two teams that

558
00:26:24,599 --> 00:26:27,279
people are happy to support money on both sides of

559
00:26:27,319 --> 00:26:27,680
the game.

560
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:31,079
Speaker 2: Okay, so pretty much once we stop at the Giants,

561
00:26:31,079 --> 00:26:36,079
so Jaguars, Panthers, Bucks, Giants, needs of the day that

562
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:38,279
you're confident in, and then we get to the late

563
00:26:38,319 --> 00:26:41,279
afternoon of Arizona, Denver, Seattle, Cleveland, and you're like, we

564
00:26:41,319 --> 00:26:42,279
lose the afternoon, but.

565
00:26:42,319 --> 00:26:45,319
Speaker 1: Hey, we'll lose all of those games. We'll lose them all.

566
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:47,039
We always do. It's the afternoon.

567
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 6: I just here's here's my only goal for the afternoon.

568
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:54,200
One of the games be competitive. Just have one of

569
00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:56,039
the games be close enough that we can show it

570
00:26:56,079 --> 00:26:59,440
on sound here at the Lovely super Book last Sunday.

571
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:03,079
There wasn't even really anything to show, Like, what what

572
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:04,720
did you guys do on Sunday?

573
00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:07,160
Speaker 1: After? Into the Ball? Was just three blowout games.

574
00:27:07,319 --> 00:27:11,160
Speaker 2: We actually quit after the one o'clock Eastern time games.

575
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:14,200
So once the Ravens beat the Vikings, we left the

576
00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:16,119
bar and we went back to the beach.

577
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:19,799
Speaker 1: What did you think of Kelly? Kelly's a dear friend

578
00:27:19,799 --> 00:27:20,160
of yours.

579
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:23,400
Speaker 6: She bet the Vikings and she's sitting there in Ruba

580
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:26,359
rooting against it.

581
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:27,160
Speaker 2: Was so rude.

582
00:27:27,599 --> 00:27:28,119
Speaker 5: Who does that?

583
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:31,160
Speaker 2: I invited her two years ago on this trip. She

584
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:33,720
planned this out. She waited for that schedule to come

585
00:27:33,759 --> 00:27:35,799
out and said, I'm just gonna piss Ariel off and

586
00:27:35,799 --> 00:27:36,839
bet against the Ravens.

587
00:27:37,039 --> 00:27:39,480
Speaker 1: That is not cool on today.

588
00:27:39,559 --> 00:27:40,680
Speaker 2: Now he's on the Brownies.

589
00:27:41,799 --> 00:27:43,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, the you know the sharp guys, they bet

590
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:44,839
the Browns every week.

591
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:47,599
Speaker 2: I mean, well they also well they also have been

592
00:27:47,599 --> 00:27:49,039
betting the Titans every week.

593
00:27:49,599 --> 00:27:50,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right.

594
00:27:51,599 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 6: I think it's that's a bit of a surprise, all

595
00:27:53,799 --> 00:27:56,680
kidding aside, we don't really have much of a decision

596
00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:59,079
on that game, and I would have thought looking at

597
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:01,079
the board, like if we went back to.

598
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:03,400
Speaker 2: Mine move like two three points throughout the week.

599
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:04,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, we did that.

600
00:28:04,519 --> 00:28:04,640
Speaker 7: Well.

601
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:06,799
Speaker 1: There's been some sharp groups taking six and five and

602
00:28:06,839 --> 00:28:07,160
a half.

603
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:10,160
Speaker 6: But we don't really have a decision because there was

604
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:12,640
there was some money laid at minus.

605
00:28:12,319 --> 00:28:13,599
Speaker 1: Five and a half on Houston.

606
00:28:14,279 --> 00:28:16,359
Speaker 6: I would have expected that to be a big need,

607
00:28:16,839 --> 00:28:19,920
because Tennessee is almost always a big need, especially when

608
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:24,359
they're a relatively short dog five point dog in this case,

609
00:28:24,799 --> 00:28:26,960
but it's not. There's just not a lot of money

610
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:28,240
on that game. There's not a lot of interest in

611
00:28:28,279 --> 00:28:28,640
that game.

612
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 2: Huh. Well, that one is ugly, So that is ugly.

613
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:35,279
Speaker 1: I have no I have no interest in that game.

614
00:28:35,519 --> 00:28:37,640
Speaker 2: No, I have zero interest in that can kill us.

615
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:40,599
The forty nine Ers and Cardinals one was interesting to

616
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:43,920
me too, JM. Because every week I feel like, Okay,

617
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:45,599
the forty nine ers injuries are going to catch up,

618
00:28:45,599 --> 00:28:47,599
They're going to catch up. Every week the forty nine

619
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:51,000
ers find a way, and yet the Cardinals get absolutely

620
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:54,880
demolished last week by the Seahawks, and here we are

621
00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:58,119
with a three point spread against the Niners.

622
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 6: We did move it up to three and a half

623
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:05,200
very recently, and I think it's I think you're seeing

624
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:09,240
some money on the Niners, Brock parties back for San Francisco.

625
00:29:09,359 --> 00:29:12,720
Speaker 1: I heard different people say different things. If that hurts hurts.

626
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:14,519
Speaker 6: Them, that helps them. I think it's probably it probably

627
00:29:14,519 --> 00:29:18,160
helps them. But forty nine ers are a very public side.

628
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:22,119
I can tell you guys that they are probably the

629
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:23,279
most lopsided.

630
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 1: They are the most lopsided.

631
00:29:25,319 --> 00:29:28,079
Speaker 6: Take account of the day here at the West Gate,

632
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:29,440
everybody's on the forty nine ers.

633
00:29:29,759 --> 00:29:33,759
Speaker 2: ARIZONAEF Okay, so you guys need Arizona. I kind of

634
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:36,000
like them, but they screwed me last week. So I'm

635
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:39,799
probably gonna stay away from them. Let me think if

636
00:29:39,839 --> 00:29:40,799
there's really.

637
00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:42,319
Speaker 1: You really hold a grudge, don't you.

638
00:29:43,079 --> 00:29:43,319
Speaker 7: Yeah.

639
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:45,559
Speaker 2: I mean it's not a great quality of mine. But

640
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:50,960
you know, I I try not to be so pessimistic,

641
00:29:51,039 --> 00:29:53,640
and people tell me this all the time. I'm very pessimistic,

642
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:55,559
but I feel like the NFL makes you a pessimist.

643
00:29:56,279 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 1: NFL's tough. The NFL is very tough to all aside.

644
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:02,799
Speaker 6: It's very difficult to sit there and pick winners against

645
00:30:02,799 --> 00:30:03,839
the points spread in the NFL.

646
00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 1: It's not an easy It's not an easy task. That's why.

647
00:30:07,519 --> 00:30:09,319
That's why, like when your friend, Kelly gets all been

648
00:30:09,359 --> 00:30:11,039
out of shape on Sundays. I'm like, what do you want?

649
00:30:11,079 --> 00:30:12,960
This is hard, this is not easy to do this.

650
00:30:13,799 --> 00:30:17,079
Speaker 2: Well, she's everything everyone, everyone's a winner when you're with

651
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:20,000
Kelly in Vegas. That was why the blackjack table she

652
00:30:20,079 --> 00:30:22,200
got mad at me because at the blackjack table when

653
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:25,759
she was winning, I kept cursing her out because everyone

654
00:30:25,799 --> 00:30:27,799
else at the table is losing except her, and she's

655
00:30:27,839 --> 00:30:29,079
saying the table's hot.

656
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:31,519
Speaker 3: No, no, it's just you.

657
00:30:32,119 --> 00:30:33,119
Speaker 1: It's just you.

658
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 2: NBA and college basketball are better, is what Daniel said.

659
00:30:37,039 --> 00:30:40,160
Pretty mad, Shannon, Well, this chat's like, okay, I'm getting

660
00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:43,519
all over the place. I know props aren't a huge

661
00:30:43,519 --> 00:30:45,720
thing out there for you guys, but are there any

662
00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:48,480
props that you feel are very public?

663
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:52,680
Speaker 1: Let me look at the prop board? Hold please, Aeriel.

664
00:30:53,079 --> 00:30:55,240
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean we'll we'll always do a lot of

665
00:30:55,279 --> 00:30:58,400
action on the Sunday night game, especially this week when

666
00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:01,160
you've got two really good teams. Let me scroll down

667
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:06,240
to that game see if I can get you something juicy, man.

668
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:10,240
Speaker 1: Hold on, there's a lot of props. Hell yeah, there's

669
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:11,599
a lot to scroll through.

670
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:13,960
Speaker 2: For you to tell me about.

671
00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 6: I'm scrolling right now. And I'm still in the ten

672
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:20,599
am games. I've made very little progress here. Should have

673
00:31:20,599 --> 00:31:21,960
asked me before the show started.

674
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 2: Sorry, I'll remember next time. I don't remember to ask boy.

675
00:31:27,279 --> 00:31:31,799
Speaker 6: Sorry, hold on, old, Please ask another question while I

676
00:31:31,839 --> 00:31:32,799
scroll through all these games.

677
00:31:32,839 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 2: Richard Lockhart asked, what's the biggest dog that you guys

678
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:38,640
need to win out right? I assume that it's Jacksonville.

679
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:41,359
Speaker 1: I think it's Jacksonville or Cleveland.

680
00:31:41,519 --> 00:31:44,119
Speaker 6: I mean I think because because I always look at

681
00:31:44,119 --> 00:31:46,119
it like I know what we're gonna need in the

682
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:47,440
later in the day.

683
00:31:47,759 --> 00:31:49,359
Speaker 1: So once we get through all the.

684
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:51,839
Speaker 6: Ten am games, we'll have all the parlays going into

685
00:31:51,839 --> 00:31:56,559
the afternoon to Kansas City and Baltimore on the money line.

686
00:31:56,759 --> 00:31:59,640
So if one of those two teams could lose, which

687
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:02,680
they will because we lose every afternoon game, we would

688
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:04,880
do very very well if one of.

689
00:32:04,799 --> 00:32:07,319
Speaker 1: Those two teams could lose a game. No, there's really

690
00:32:07,319 --> 00:32:10,079
not a whole lot they bet under the largest lead

691
00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:13,079
in the Eagles game. There's not a ton of good

692
00:32:13,079 --> 00:32:14,839
stuff on the Sunday night game, to be honest.

693
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 2: How about needs for totals.

694
00:32:17,519 --> 00:32:22,039
Speaker 6: Totals, Let's see, we need the under, and so it's funny.

695
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:27,200
They love to bet over on all the big primetime games.

696
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:29,039
Speaker 1: I think you know that. It looks like we'll need

697
00:32:29,079 --> 00:32:30,400
the under tonight.

698
00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:36,960
Speaker 6: Under tonight in Philadelphia, Detroit, we need the under the

699
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:39,039
forty nine er game. There's a lot of money on

700
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:43,880
over San Francisco Arizona game. And you know what game

701
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:46,559
we'll actually need the under. It's not today, it's tomorrow.

702
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:51,240
But they'll all bet over in the Dallas game, Dallas

703
00:32:51,319 --> 00:32:53,039
and the Raiders. I'm going to that game.

704
00:32:53,079 --> 00:32:55,599
Speaker 2: Can you believe yourself today?

705
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 6: I'm going to a National Football League game. I'll be

706
00:32:58,279 --> 00:32:58,960
at the game in Martin.

707
00:32:59,119 --> 00:33:01,559
Speaker 2: Are you subjecting yourself to that? That sounds horrible.

708
00:33:02,279 --> 00:33:05,400
Speaker 1: Part of the job. It's part of the jobs for.

709
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:07,319
Speaker 2: Work purposes or is that just the excuse?

710
00:33:07,559 --> 00:33:10,839
Speaker 1: No, no, no, it's a work related task. It's part of.

711
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:14,319
Speaker 6: We'll need the under. I think I know we will.

712
00:33:14,319 --> 00:33:16,839
We'll need the under tomorrow night, and that game will

713
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:19,559
be you'll be surprised. IW heavily bet that game will

714
00:33:19,559 --> 00:33:22,960
be out here because the Raiders. The Raiders and then

715
00:33:23,119 --> 00:33:25,599
you know Dallas obviously has a huge fan base too,

716
00:33:25,839 --> 00:33:28,599
so two big brands. That'll be one of our best

717
00:33:28,599 --> 00:33:30,599
Monday night games of the year for action.

718
00:33:31,759 --> 00:33:34,799
Speaker 2: John Murray, you're the best. Thanks as always for hopping

719
00:33:34,799 --> 00:33:37,079
on the show with us here on Water Talks last call.

720
00:33:37,559 --> 00:33:39,960
Have fun today and have fun tomorrow night at Monday

721
00:33:40,039 --> 00:33:41,920
Night Football. I'm sure it'll be a real doozy of

722
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:42,279
the game.

723
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 1: Well, I'm sure two great quarterbacks. I can't wait for

724
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:47,279
it should be a real good one.

725
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, great defenses as well. That's perfect for you, Jam

726
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:52,519
have a good one, have a fun day and enjoy

727
00:33:52,559 --> 00:33:57,119
the super bug to you. Well that's but certainly not least.

728
00:33:57,119 --> 00:33:59,480
We are going to be joined now by Wager Talks

729
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:03,559
on ronalds Caban Hi Kabang, Happy.

730
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:06,720
Speaker 7: Sunday, Happy Sunday, Welcome back from your trip.

731
00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 2: Thanks.

732
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 5: Seems like you guys had a lot of fun.

733
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:11,079
Speaker 2: We did too much fun. And I went food shopping

734
00:34:11,119 --> 00:34:13,639
this morning so that I could clear my system of

735
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:16,159
all of the crappy food and booze that I was

736
00:34:16,199 --> 00:34:19,679
consuming throughout the week. But that's what football's for, right,

737
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:22,719
to make us like kind of tempt us to have

738
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:28,079
to find an outlet. I'm like, no no alcohol today, Kobang.

739
00:34:28,119 --> 00:34:30,519
You're running a Seahawks at Is that an indicator of

740
00:34:30,559 --> 00:34:31,440
something for today.

741
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:32,679
Speaker 5: Yeah, I am.

742
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:35,320
Speaker 7: I'm actually from Seattle, so I'm a big Seahawks fan,

743
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:37,480
but I don't typically bet their games unless I have

744
00:34:37,519 --> 00:34:40,880
a good solid read on it, and this is one

745
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:42,920
of the games that I have put up place placed

746
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:45,559
a bet on the Seahawks. Obviously, both of these teams

747
00:34:45,559 --> 00:34:47,320
coming in hot right for a game winning streak. I

748
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:50,039
think both teams coming off really dominant wins in a

749
00:34:50,119 --> 00:34:52,119
row too, So I know a lot of people are

750
00:34:52,199 --> 00:34:55,960
going to run to Stafford and his dominant MVP looking

751
00:34:56,039 --> 00:35:00,039
a season so far twenty five touchdowns to interceptions, but

752
00:35:00,159 --> 00:35:03,159
I think the Rams have haven't faced really a team

753
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:06,920
that has been this balance offensively and defensively as the Seahawx.

754
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:09,079
Speaker 5: Yeah, and in the Seahawks, they travel well too.

755
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:12,599
Speaker 7: On the season for no ats on the road, They've

756
00:35:12,679 --> 00:35:15,679
kept all four opponents on the road under their team total.

757
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:18,719
I know both teams have been elite against the run,

758
00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:21,320
but I think if there is any weakness on this

759
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:25,039
Rams defense, it is against the past and against the

760
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:29,119
uh Against the Seahawks, who have JSN and Donold, they

761
00:35:29,159 --> 00:35:32,360
actually have one of the highest explosive rates in the league,

762
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:34,599
so that might be the separator here.

763
00:35:34,639 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 5: I think.

764
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:37,480
Speaker 7: You know, obviously divisional games are going to be pretty tight,

765
00:35:37,599 --> 00:35:41,000
especially between these two types of two teams looking for

766
00:35:41,039 --> 00:35:43,760
that number one spot. So I think it's those explosive

767
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:47,239
type plays that set them apart. And uh, you know,

768
00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:50,840
for me, like I said, I love playing dogs who

769
00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:53,159
I feel like have a solid chance to win games

770
00:35:53,159 --> 00:35:55,360
out right, and this is one of those types of situations.

771
00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:57,760
So I did take the Seahawks plus three.

772
00:35:58,599 --> 00:36:00,880
Speaker 2: Another game that we haven't touched on too much yet

773
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:03,760
because it's such a large spread. It's this Packers Giants

774
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:07,199
game Packers. It's gone between seven seven and a half

775
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:09,480
total drop forty four and a half forty two and

776
00:36:09,559 --> 00:36:12,559
a half. A lot of changes to the Giants. Quarterback

777
00:36:12,639 --> 00:36:15,960
Jamis Winston now under center. No head coach Brian Dabble

778
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:18,159
got fired this week. How are you going to approach

779
00:36:18,199 --> 00:36:18,559
this game?

780
00:36:19,039 --> 00:36:21,320
Speaker 7: Yeah, I didn't like how he said that they win

781
00:36:21,599 --> 00:36:24,760
morning games and they need the Giants. But I got

782
00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:26,760
to lift towards the Packers here. You talked about a

783
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:28,880
lot of the changes that they're they're going through right now.

784
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:32,639
The Giants are going through right now. Obviously the coaching change,

785
00:36:32,639 --> 00:36:37,480
you got Winston coming in and their offensive line has

786
00:36:37,599 --> 00:36:40,320
been you know, dealing with a bunch of injuries, and

787
00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:42,320
if you look at the Packers, there they are in

788
00:36:42,639 --> 00:36:45,960
you know, obviously a short week, but I think this

789
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:48,159
is a strong bounce back spot. They just played Philly

790
00:36:48,239 --> 00:36:51,599
ten to seven. Offensively, their numbers are pretty strong still

791
00:36:51,639 --> 00:36:55,199
throughout the season, but their defense only giving up nineteen

792
00:36:55,199 --> 00:36:58,320
point six per game, top ten EPA and success rate

793
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:01,480
as well. So a lot of things kind of you know,

794
00:37:01,559 --> 00:37:04,039
just from a surface level point towards the Packers. But

795
00:37:05,079 --> 00:37:07,239
you know, I think the green Bay offense versus that

796
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:10,400
this Giants defense is where I expect that separation to happen.

797
00:37:11,039 --> 00:37:13,079
The Packers, like I said, their numbers still look solid,

798
00:37:13,079 --> 00:37:17,199
obviously coming off a terrible offensive game, so that bounce

799
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:20,599
back situation, they're They're still live in the playoff race

800
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:23,800
New York giving up almost four hundred yards per game

801
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:27,960
a red zone touchdown rate over seventy percent. So this team,

802
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:30,079
if Green Bay can get to the red zone, they

803
00:37:30,119 --> 00:37:33,559
should be able to score pretty efficiently. So for me,

804
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:37,280
I got to look towards, you know, a more consistent offense. Obviously,

805
00:37:38,079 --> 00:37:40,880
the bounce back situation does play a role in this one.

806
00:37:41,519 --> 00:37:45,239
So I look towards the Packers here, and I do

807
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:47,880
look at long term trends as well, and this one

808
00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:53,039
goes back to I think twenty thirteen, but the non

809
00:37:53,079 --> 00:37:55,800
divisional road favorites of three or more coming off a

810
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:57,920
home loss as a favorite, so basically a bounce back

811
00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:02,760
spot in six ats since twenty thirteen. So this fits

812
00:38:03,039 --> 00:38:05,800
the Green Bay Packers, and so I did take the

813
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:06,599
minus seven years.

814
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:12,039
Speaker 2: Speaking of divisional favorites, you've got the Pittsburgh Steelers laying

815
00:38:12,039 --> 00:38:14,840
five and a half against the Cincinnati Bengals. Bengals and

816
00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:17,840
Joe Blacko just upset this Aaron Rodgers and Steelers team

817
00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:21,599
a few weeks ago. What's the play for game two

818
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:24,480
of a divisional matchup with Aaron Rodgers at home?

819
00:38:25,039 --> 00:38:25,280
Speaker 1: Yeah.

820
00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:27,599
Speaker 7: I was looking at the over in this one, obviously

821
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:31,360
forty nine. Last night it has come down. I didn't

822
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:34,119
take this. This is not like a client client player

823
00:38:34,159 --> 00:38:36,519
or anything like that, just first glance. So it just

824
00:38:36,519 --> 00:38:40,719
seems like this should be an overtyp game. Obviously, Cincinnati

825
00:38:41,079 --> 00:38:44,239
three and six, they've been living in track meets, right,

826
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:47,960
They've lost two games where they've scored thirty plus themselves.

827
00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:51,079
So this is a situation where Pittsburgh. I know they've

828
00:38:51,119 --> 00:38:54,480
been struggling offensively from a yardage perspective, but they actually

829
00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:57,559
score pretty efficiently. I feel like they could take advantage

830
00:38:57,639 --> 00:39:02,599
of this Bengals you know defense. The Steelers secondary also

831
00:39:02,679 --> 00:39:05,159
is banged up, so I think that's the reason why

832
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:07,719
this can go over as well. Cincinnati should be able

833
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:08,599
to score their.

834
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:12,119
Speaker 5: Score their team total over.

835
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:16,239
Speaker 7: Probably if you look at the Bengals giving up what

836
00:39:16,239 --> 00:39:19,840
twenty four points per game with a top ten red

837
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:23,559
zone touchdown race our bottom ten touchdown rate, I think

838
00:39:23,559 --> 00:39:26,519
this is just one of those games where both teams

839
00:39:26,559 --> 00:39:28,840
are going to pretty score pretty efficiently in the red

840
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:31,840
zone as long as they could get there. I know

841
00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:33,440
the Steelers are coming off a game where they just

842
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:36,960
scored ten points, but this is a terrible Bengals defense.

843
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:39,760
That's why they're seven and two to the over. Opponents

844
00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:41,960
are seven and two to their team total over as well.

845
00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:44,599
So that was actually another way to look at this

846
00:39:44,639 --> 00:39:48,119
game instead of the full game over Steelers teams total over.

847
00:39:48,239 --> 00:39:51,000
But I think that the Bengals can do their part

848
00:39:51,039 --> 00:39:51,400
as well.

849
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 2: Jay Dogg asked in The chat Ronald Thoughts on Atlanta,

850
00:39:55,679 --> 00:39:57,239
Carolina Today.

851
00:39:57,599 --> 00:39:58,719
Speaker 5: Atlanta, Carolina.

852
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:02,559
Speaker 7: That wasn't really too high up on my radar, but

853
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:05,920
just looking at quick stuff the Panthers on that in

854
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:09,400
a bounced back spot here. Fuccans got some in season revenge,

855
00:40:09,679 --> 00:40:12,639
but they are coming coming off an ot game and

856
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:17,400
they're looking ahead to divisional rival. So this is one

857
00:40:17,440 --> 00:40:20,559
of those type of type of games where when there's

858
00:40:20,559 --> 00:40:22,280
signals on both sides, I kind of just throw them

859
00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:24,760
off the list. It gives me more time to focus

860
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:27,199
on games where I do have an edge, and this

861
00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:30,159
one is not. But my model does lean towards the

862
00:40:30,199 --> 00:40:34,320
Panthers slightly, but not enough to really put too much

863
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:34,760
into it.

864
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:38,559
Speaker 2: And lastly, Monday Night Football. So Monday Night Football we

865
00:40:38,599 --> 00:40:40,960
haven't talked too much about, aside for John Murray saying

866
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:43,280
that the super book probably is going to need the under.

867
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:46,760
It's a high total of fifteen and a half Cowboys Raiders.

868
00:40:47,199 --> 00:40:50,599
The public's going to zoom two bad defenses a lot

869
00:40:50,599 --> 00:40:53,679
of points, especially for the Cowboys offense. How would you

870
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:55,760
play Cowboys Raiders Monday Night Football?

871
00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:59,840
Speaker 7: I was actually gonna look towards the Cowboys here. I know,

872
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:02,679
obviously they're three five and one right on the season,

873
00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:06,719
so doesn't look great, but their offense has been consistent

874
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:09,119
and efficient. Right they're twenty nine points per game, top

875
00:41:09,119 --> 00:41:12,880
ten in total yards and efficiency. Uh, their defense obviously

876
00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:15,360
has been the problem thirty thirty point eight points per

877
00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:18,239
game given up. Vegas is on the opposite side, right

878
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:21,760
their their offense is struggling there. They've only won two

879
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:24,639
of their nine games, so I think they just put

880
00:41:24,679 --> 00:41:26,960
up ten points in Denver as well. So their offense

881
00:41:27,039 --> 00:41:30,360
is really on the opposite side of this Cowboys team.

882
00:41:30,559 --> 00:41:32,559
And for me, what I'm looking at here from a

883
00:41:32,639 --> 00:41:36,239
data standpoint, the offensive edge is just so much cleaner

884
00:41:36,559 --> 00:41:39,400
for the Dallas side. Sitting you know, they're they're at

885
00:41:39,519 --> 00:41:42,320
towards the top and epa a p play, you're fishing

886
00:41:42,360 --> 00:41:45,079
through the air, you're fishing on early downs and.

887
00:41:45,119 --> 00:41:46,239
Speaker 5: They stay ahead of the sticks.

888
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:49,639
Speaker 7: So if you look at Vegas' defense, they've shown to

889
00:41:49,719 --> 00:41:52,760
be pretty solid as far as yards per play numbers,

890
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:54,880
but they do fall apart on third down, which is

891
00:41:54,920 --> 00:41:58,920
where Dallas thrives. And for me, where you know Dallas

892
00:41:59,039 --> 00:42:02,000
being what six and third down conversion rate. If you

893
00:42:02,039 --> 00:42:05,239
look at the Raiders offense, their third down converinger rates

894
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:07,840
towards the bottom of the league. I think they're only

895
00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:11,440
averaging lessons seventeen points per game or something so far

896
00:42:11,519 --> 00:42:14,000
this season, So there's not a lot of upside or

897
00:42:14,039 --> 00:42:17,920
even positive regression that pops up for this Raiders side.

898
00:42:18,480 --> 00:42:21,280
And from the same trend that I mentioned earlier with

899
00:42:21,320 --> 00:42:23,880
the Packers actually fit with this Cowboys team. That forty

900
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:27,760
four eighteen and six ats trend non divisional world favorites

901
00:42:28,519 --> 00:42:32,280
in a bounce back situation that fits with Dallas a

902
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:36,079
lot of things. Also for the Dallas defense, they picked

903
00:42:36,119 --> 00:42:37,920
up some guys in the trade dead line. They also

904
00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:41,880
have some guys coming back healthier, So maybe this defense,

905
00:42:42,079 --> 00:42:44,639
you know, as long as they get even just slightly better,

906
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:48,960
especially on third down defense, this is a situation where

907
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:52,119
the Dallas Cowboys can separate themselves pretty easily.

908
00:42:54,159 --> 00:42:56,239
Speaker 2: I know that it's an NFL slate, it's week eleven.

909
00:42:56,280 --> 00:42:59,480
People are always high on the NFL. However, people in

910
00:42:59,480 --> 00:43:02,599
the chat were saying earlier, we haven't gotten other sports

911
00:43:02,679 --> 00:43:05,119
today in kbang, I know that the NBA is still

912
00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:08,360
your bread and butter anything through this eight game NBA

913
00:43:08,480 --> 00:43:09,079
slate tonight.

914
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:13,559
Speaker 7: Yeah, I do have one play up for clients, but

915
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:19,119
the other one that I haven't really finished capping. I

916
00:43:19,199 --> 00:43:21,519
was actually capping the game earlier when during the show.

917
00:43:21,559 --> 00:43:24,920
But MAVs Blazers over two thirty four and a half.

918
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:26,679
I know it's tough to look at and over with

919
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:29,039
the MAVs team just because of how bad their offenses

920
00:43:29,079 --> 00:43:31,920
look if you look at just service level numbers, thirtieth

921
00:43:31,920 --> 00:43:34,840
in offensive rating and points per game. But you know,

922
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:37,079
from a trend perspective, they're four and eight to the over,

923
00:43:37,199 --> 00:43:40,559
meaning they've gone under, you know, majority of the time.

924
00:43:40,599 --> 00:43:43,480
But all four of their overs this season have come

925
00:43:43,599 --> 00:43:46,360
as home underdog, which is the situation they're in today.

926
00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:49,280
Blazers have been a solid over team ninety three to

927
00:43:49,320 --> 00:43:53,159
the over this season, including five and over as favorites,

928
00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:56,199
and that obviously they're their favorite today. I mentioned the

929
00:43:56,239 --> 00:43:59,559
MAVs poor offensive numbers, but the Blazers defense is just, uh,

930
00:43:59,679 --> 00:44:02,679
you know, twenty second in defensive rating. Both teams top

931
00:44:02,719 --> 00:44:05,159
five in pace on the season, so a lot of

932
00:44:05,159 --> 00:44:08,239
things for me. I think opportunity is the best thing

933
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:12,079
in in NBA, So if there's opportunities to score, you

934
00:44:12,159 --> 00:44:14,920
got to look towards over. I think the efficiency numbers

935
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:16,880
on the offensive side of the ball for the maps

936
00:44:16,920 --> 00:44:20,760
will get better, you know, I think from a proper perspective,

937
00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:23,679
I know, I think Flag had zero assists in his

938
00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:27,679
last game. But when you get guys like Gafford and

939
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:31,199
Lively back and a d whenever he gets back, he's

940
00:44:31,239 --> 00:44:34,719
He's one of those players who can who can be allowed,

941
00:44:34,719 --> 00:44:37,559
you know, be the pick and roll and the assist

942
00:44:37,559 --> 00:44:39,719
guy on the lob threat. He could do a lot

943
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:41,960
of things just because of how versatile he is. So

944
00:44:42,039 --> 00:44:44,039
this is one of those situations where I think, from

945
00:44:44,079 --> 00:44:46,440
a proper perspective, you bounce back, you get up and over.

946
00:44:46,480 --> 00:44:48,119
Speaker 5: His three and a half assist today too.

947
00:44:49,039 --> 00:44:51,800
Speaker 2: Man off Kabang catch him over at ukapper sports. What

948
00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:52,760
are you promote in today?

949
00:44:54,400 --> 00:44:57,239
Speaker 7: I think the NBA, NFL, and there's a I think

950
00:44:57,239 --> 00:45:01,400
there's a all access pass right now that is by

951
00:45:01,639 --> 00:45:05,880
two months to get the third one for free. October

952
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:09,280
was great. We went up and over sixty units November

953
00:45:09,360 --> 00:45:11,199
early November, we were hitting everything.

954
00:45:11,639 --> 00:45:12,559
Speaker 5: Last three or four.

955
00:45:12,440 --> 00:45:15,480
Speaker 7: Days though it's been the opposite, so it's been coming

956
00:45:15,519 --> 00:45:17,920
down a little bit. You can't hit sixty percent on

957
00:45:18,079 --> 00:45:21,159
four sports, you know, for that long of a period.

958
00:45:21,239 --> 00:45:23,800
So I did hit a wall the last three or

959
00:45:23,800 --> 00:45:26,679
four days, but well we'll bounce back. The NBA is where,

960
00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:28,599
like you said, my bread and butter is and where

961
00:45:28,599 --> 00:45:31,679
everyone has kind of known me for. But uh, top

962
00:45:31,719 --> 00:45:36,000
three in profit in NHL, NBA, NFL Premier League. So

963
00:45:36,039 --> 00:45:38,639
a lot of things going really well for me right now.

964
00:45:38,679 --> 00:45:40,760
So that's that's the deal that's going on. By two months,

965
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:42,000
get the third one for free.

966
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:44,880
Speaker 2: And I guys, we've got this last question from Andrew.

967
00:45:44,960 --> 00:45:46,800
He said, are you a believer in the Pistons?

968
00:45:47,119 --> 00:45:47,400
Speaker 1: Man?

969
00:45:47,639 --> 00:45:51,039
Speaker 7: You know, this Pistons team has been very surprising. I

970
00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:54,039
not gonna lie I took. I went against them the

971
00:45:54,079 --> 00:45:57,000
last two games, where both Kid and Duran has been

972
00:45:57,480 --> 00:46:00,000
you know, set out. I just didn't think these guys,

973
00:46:00,159 --> 00:46:02,400
role players would step up in the way that they have.

974
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:06,199
So you know, their coach has them believing in their

975
00:46:06,239 --> 00:46:09,840
process and their team. He's pulling the best at all

976
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:12,280
his players. And when you have a coach like that's

977
00:46:12,480 --> 00:46:14,559
that's definitely a threat. So I do believe in this

978
00:46:15,159 --> 00:46:15,760
Detroit team.

979
00:46:16,559 --> 00:46:18,679
Speaker 2: Donald Bang, Thanks, it's always for coming on here on

980
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:20,960
last call on a Sunday. Good luck to those Vets tonight.

981
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:22,079
Speaker 5: Thanks to you too.

982
00:46:23,559 --> 00:46:26,159
Speaker 2: I've got some props that I like. And just so

983
00:46:26,199 --> 00:46:29,519
anyone knows, Miami Dolphins just ran in a touchdown, so

984
00:46:30,079 --> 00:46:33,719
it was oh, Gordon ran it in. So it is

985
00:46:33,760 --> 00:46:38,119
now thirteen to twelve, pending the extra point by Miami

986
00:46:38,199 --> 00:46:41,320
out there in Madrid, So definitely keep an eye on

987
00:46:41,320 --> 00:46:44,599
that game as we're in the fourth lay prop I

988
00:46:44,639 --> 00:46:46,639
call them the prop Queen edges on the Prop Queen Pod,

989
00:46:46,679 --> 00:46:48,760
which you could check out back to six pm Monday

990
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:51,639
through Friday Eastern Time, give out all the best props

991
00:46:51,639 --> 00:46:53,199
of the day, and I always bring on other kaffers

992
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:56,840
who specialize in the props market the one pm slate.

993
00:46:56,920 --> 00:46:58,639
I've got a few props that stood out to me.

994
00:46:59,159 --> 00:47:02,760
Bears quarterback Williams under thirty two and a half past attempts.

995
00:47:03,079 --> 00:47:05,079
He went over this with thirty five and his last

996
00:47:05,079 --> 00:47:08,199
start in September against the Vikings. The same result usually

997
00:47:08,199 --> 00:47:11,960
doesn't happen twice, so Williams has gone under thirty two

998
00:47:11,960 --> 00:47:14,280
and a half pass attempts in three or four divisional

999
00:47:14,400 --> 00:47:16,800
road games since the start of last year. The Vikings

1000
00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:20,000
have allowed the fifth least pass attempts per game to quarterbacks.

1001
00:47:20,159 --> 00:47:22,199
Four of the last five quarterbacks to face the Vikings

1002
00:47:22,199 --> 00:47:25,480
in Minnesota went under their past attempts PROP, so under

1003
00:47:25,480 --> 00:47:30,239
pass attempts for Caleb Williams. Michael Pennick Junior under his

1004
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:34,159
rushing yards so again a divisional game, Game two of

1005
00:47:34,199 --> 00:47:36,559
the season. He went over this with nine in the

1006
00:47:36,599 --> 00:47:39,760
first game against the Panthers. However, the number six and

1007
00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:42,400
a half. The Panthers have allowed the second least rushing

1008
00:47:42,440 --> 00:47:45,679
yards per game to quarterbacks. Seventy percent of quarterbacks went

1009
00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:49,000
under their rushing yards PROP against the Panthers. Pennick Junior

1010
00:47:49,079 --> 00:47:51,360
did go over with nine rushing yards again in game one,

1011
00:47:51,599 --> 00:47:54,760
so I'm going to fade it go under in game two.

1012
00:47:55,760 --> 00:47:58,079
My favorite play of the one o'clock slate is Trevor Lawrence,

1013
00:47:58,119 --> 00:48:00,840
the Jacks quarterback under nineteen and a half completions at

1014
00:48:00,880 --> 00:48:03,119
even money. You can also look at the two ten

1015
00:48:03,159 --> 00:48:05,239
and a half passing yards for an under at minus

1016
00:48:05,280 --> 00:48:08,280
one twelve. Since the start of the season or sorry,

1017
00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:11,440
since the start of last season, Trevor Lawrence is averaging

1018
00:48:11,559 --> 00:48:15,559
just under sixteen completions, just under twenty eight pass attempts,

1019
00:48:15,880 --> 00:48:17,920
and one hundred and eighty nine passing yards when facing

1020
00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:20,360
a top ten pass d The Chargers have allowed the

1021
00:48:20,360 --> 00:48:24,199
fifth least completions and fifth least passing yards per game

1022
00:48:24,480 --> 00:48:27,199
this season. It's why seventy percent of the quarterbacks have

1023
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:30,559
gone under their completions and passing yards prop when facing

1024
00:48:30,599 --> 00:48:32,440
the Chargers. So those are three plays that you could

1025
00:48:32,440 --> 00:48:34,960
take a look at for the one pm Eastern timeslate.

1026
00:48:35,519 --> 00:48:37,360
If you want any more, then you could go to

1027
00:48:37,400 --> 00:48:40,400
the prop Queen dot Com. I always on the newsletter

1028
00:48:40,480 --> 00:48:43,840
am giving out to all the subscribers on Sundays. Everybody

1029
00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:46,360
gets every prop that I like on the board. It

1030
00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:48,639
doesn't mean I bet them all. I just give you

1031
00:48:48,679 --> 00:48:51,280
my long list because sometimes you all know you have

1032
00:48:51,320 --> 00:48:54,039
a long list, you condense it and you end up

1033
00:48:54,159 --> 00:48:56,280
leaving off some winners. So I just give you guys

1034
00:48:56,360 --> 00:48:58,559
every edge that I see in the market in the

1035
00:48:58,559 --> 00:49:01,480
prop queen dot com newsletter, and you could pay eight

1036
00:49:01,599 --> 00:49:03,880
ninety nine a month or seventeen ninety nine a month,

1037
00:49:04,119 --> 00:49:06,039
depending if you want one or two newsletters to day,

1038
00:49:06,679 --> 00:49:08,719
and I'll give you guys all the updates on the

1039
00:49:08,719 --> 00:49:11,559
prep queen dot com for the best prop edges. If

1040
00:49:11,559 --> 00:49:13,599
you guys do want some more VR, because I know

1041
00:49:13,639 --> 00:49:15,719
the chat wants some more VR. He is coming up

1042
00:49:15,760 --> 00:49:18,519
in ten minutes on the steam room. And again it

1043
00:49:18,639 --> 00:49:21,239
is a free offer today, so you get access for

1044
00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:25,239
free to VR's steam room right after last Call and

1045
00:49:25,320 --> 00:49:29,559
then go to WT dot Buds slash Insiders. It's two

1046
00:49:29,679 --> 00:49:31,920
ninety nine a month, two dollars and ninety nine cents

1047
00:49:31,960 --> 00:49:34,239
a month. You get early access to shows like bet

1048
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:37,320
on It and some specialty segments, and today you get

1049
00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:40,320
free access to VR's steamroom and you guys will get

1050
00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:42,840
everything on the board. He's going through every single game.

1051
00:49:42,880 --> 00:49:44,719
So if he missed Anny and you guys want more, VR,

1052
00:49:45,119 --> 00:49:47,679
head over to the steam room at noon Eastern time

1053
00:49:47,719 --> 00:49:51,239
in about nine minutes. Here on waiter Talks Last Call,

1054
00:49:51,440 --> 00:49:55,199
we were joined today by VR, John Murray, Rold Kabang.

1055
00:49:55,760 --> 00:49:57,639
Thank you to all our guests. Thank you to everybody

1056
00:49:57,679 --> 00:50:00,760
in the comments section for contributing to the show today.

1057
00:50:01,079 --> 00:50:02,960
If you can, please go to the YouTube page over

1058
00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:05,800
at wager Talk and like and subscribe. It really means

1059
00:50:05,800 --> 00:50:08,559
a lot for you guys interacting with us and continuing

1060
00:50:08,599 --> 00:50:10,800
to help grow the wager Talk family. For me, the

1061
00:50:10,840 --> 00:50:11,880
prop quenarial Epstein.

1062
00:50:12,039 --> 00:50:12,559
Speaker 3: That is it.

1063
00:50:12,880 --> 00:50:14,880
Speaker 2: We will see you guys next week here on wager

1064
00:50:14,920 --> 00:50:15,719
Talks Last Call.