Speaker 1: Welcome to the best sports betting show on the planet.
This is Wager Talk Today. I am your host, Andy Lang.
It is Monday, jumping right into NFL Week two with
a look at the opening lines. We're also gonna talk
Monday Night Football, JJ McCarthy making his debut.
Speaker 2: On top of that, Mets and Phillies are playing today.
We're gonna break that down.
Speaker 1: Johnny's gonna join us with the Steam Report, see where
the money's going for tonight's game as well as this
upcoming weekend. Crack Man's gonna join us. We're gonna talk
MLB or Monday Night Football. We'll get his thoughts on
week one, and Steve Meryl's gonna join us. He's gonna
give you a deep breakdown of Monday Night Football and
then he'll talk Mets and Phillies. We're also gonna take
a look at what's the overreactions from week one, where
the books one, where the betters won, and who are
the big winners in props and fantasy football. Thanks so
much for joining us. Hope everyone had a great weekend.
Hit that like button while we bring in Giohnny and
get the Steam Report and leave us a comment in
the comment section. Jeohnny, Happy Monday. I know it was
a busy, busy weekend. Hope everything well. I'm coming off
a nice six and four day in NFL. You give
me sixty percent winners every Sunday. I'm a happy, happy man.
How are you, sir, wonderful man.
Speaker 3: It's been a great start for the football season, exactly
as I expected. I just hit refresh now currently number
one in NFL and college football combined for twenty twenty five,
up almost fifty units, and yeah, we're just starting. If
you're not on the college foot getting the college football action,
you're missing out. I sent my subscribers, not for the
daily guys, but I sent my subscribers almost what an
entire day of my stuff looked like. Just they voted yes,
they wanted to see it, so I gave them so
much volume on Saturday so they see what a betting
syn ticket actually looks like over a couple hours, the
amount of plays that they fire. So it was an
eye opening experience for them, and it turned out well.
When all the dust settled, we turned the profit overall
really good, really good. Over the last couple of weeks
has been good and now just move on. To next week.
Bottom line, the past is the past. What we do
ahead is what matters most.
Speaker 1: I don't have the heart for all the plays that
they do. My heart can't can't take it. Just give
me some of my props and my random plays and
I'm yeah.
Speaker 3: Everyone styles different. It's we all have different like risk tolerance.
We all are able to handle things differently. Like for me,
it's more nerve racking, like zeroing in on one play
and needing that one. You know what I mean. It's
just everybody approaches it different. It's what works for you
where you're able to be optimum. I think that's what
you stick for, whether it's low volume or high volume.
I don't think there's a correct approach. I just think
it's in what helps you become a profitable better and
that's what you should stick to.
Speaker 2: Yep, stay in our comfort zone.
Speaker 1: Let's take a look at Monday night football. To me,
this is a pretty tough one. We got a quarterback
making it a dB like you got new coaches and everything.
Speaker 2: What's happening here in this game?
Speaker 3: Well, and there was surprise we saw some money come
in on the Minnesota Vikings early. Like you said that,
the question marks for the Chicago Bears, even in a
divisional game, even being at home. But since then we
saw some TakeBack on Chicago, and it's a good two
way action, like this is the kind of game you
want to book where you're getting good two way money.
The opportunity to get middled really isn't there. We're also
seeing under money from the recreational betters, which is a
little surprising on a prime time standalone game. They usually
like to bet the favorite and over on those, but
historically this has been an under series. I think if
you look at the last five or six, maybe only
once one time last year one of the games went over.
Otherwise it's been a lower scoring series, and I think
that's why you're starting to see the under money come
in from the betting public. It'll be interesting to see
if the total starts reflecting that, because you saw kind
of a half point movement towards the under, but not
much respect at all. So it definitely wasn't sharp money
that's betting it. It's recreational betters betting the under, and
like I said, it's good two way action. Some of
the risk that the books have, they definitely have some
risk on Minnesota from some of the parlays from yesterday,
some of the moneyline parlays, and also some teaser liability
as well. Right now, you can teach Chicago up through
if you could get one and a half, you could
get them up to seven and a half. That's a
plus CV long term profitable teaser. But I think a
lot already had in Minnesota in their teasers from yesterday
because Minnesota is designed, they wanted to bet, which again
doesn't make sense, but they feel a little more comfortable
getting Minnesota at plus five or six, depending on what
teaser they use. But I highly recommend don't tease, even
when it's a standalone game. Don't tease totals. There's a
couple of rules you stick by with teasers and you'll
do just fine. Don't lay more than one twenty five
for a six point teaser, try to go through three,
six and seven only. Don't bet numbers, I mean teams
bet numbers, and don't tease totals. So in a game
like tonight with Monday Night Football, if you don't have
something to tease already for next week, forget the teaser.
Don't tease it to the total. You're not getting any
added value, You're better off straight betting.
Speaker 2: Well had to be a huge for teasers.
Speaker 1: I mean yeah, all the all the all the all
the most popular ones. I mean, I'll ask Dave Mason
about it later.
Speaker 2: This week, but teasers. It had to be teaser Central.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: And I narrowed down those one teasers that based on
the closing line, and there were five that qualified. Four
of them fashion only one did it and that was it,
and that was a Detroit against green Bay. You know,
the blowout otherwise and every other leg covered.
Speaker 1: So when you have a week where all the teasers hit,
what do we do next week? Because it feels like
the numbers are gonna end up progressing to the medium.
Speaker 2: So let's take a look here at week two and
look at some of these opening lines. Anything of note.
Speaker 5: Well, Indianapolis Cults getting money now in the Indianapolis cults
where they forgotten team talking about them over to summer,
they were getting no action at all, Like no one
even cared whether beat them to make the playoffs, not
make the playoffs.
Speaker 3: Overseason win totals, underseason win totals, books were really not
booking much Indianapolis Colts. And yesterday after that win, you
saw money come in immediately and grabbed that three and
a half on Indianapolis. They also took the one on
Philadelphia immediately. They laid the five with the La Rams,
immediately laid the three and the four with the Dallas Cowboys.
After that one got dummied down a little bit and
also took the La Chargers, who looked phenomenal on their
primetime standalone Week one game. So it's Colts, Philly Rams,
Dallas Chargers already seeing some sharp money for Week two
in the NFL. Remember, this is one of the most
advantageous weeks for betters because we've only had one game played,
and yet we have six games week six days to
analyze it. And there are a lot of conclusions that
are going to be drawn off simply sixty minutes of
football that just aren't warranted. And that's where I think
you'll be able to take advantage of recency bias none
greater in Week two because of the overreaction and no
data really to support it behind it. It's all projected,
and when you're going out on that risk curve, you
kind of want a better return than lane eleven to
win ten, but you're gonna see a lot of opportunities
to turn a profit next week, just taking advantage of
some of that recency bias. Uh, because again, we only
had one game played and a lot of analysis on
that sixty minutes.
Speaker 1: As somebody that lives in Indianapolis and watches the Colts
and follows them, can I just say, calm down, calm down.
Speaker 3: Let's see how they were Bland called it. You say,
Colt super Bowl chargers looked good? No Chargers, No Chargers.
Speaker 1: That's yeah, I bet you got the way best of
that number. At this point, Listen, I'm rooting for the Colts.
I'm just saying, let's wait until they play a team
of the pulse. Let's let's just wait and see before
we back up the breeding. Never forget the Saints last year.
Did they win their first two games?
Speaker 3: Zat came out looking like on fire?
Speaker 2: Billion bucks?
Speaker 6: Yeah?
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah? So what uh?
Speaker 1: What do you think was good for for the betters
besides the teasers over the weekend? What did you see
the under is what smoke to everybody? I think in
that Pittsburgh Jets game, I know that was a big
one for the books.
Speaker 2: What did you see that?
Speaker 4: Yeah, they were up.
Speaker 3: The wise guys steamed that one as well. They were
steaming the under first half and the under in the game,
and again that just didn't get there. That always worries me.
Whenever I see sharp betters on the same side that's
truly one sided, it worries me a little bit, especially
when it's an under. Like when it's an over and
you got the the recreational betters on the over and
the sharps on the over, that makes sense. But when
you get the under steam and the public's heavy on
the under as well, those always worry me. Kind of
like when I see the dog money when when the
public's betting the dog and they're taking them on the
money line thinking they don't even need points, and then
the sharps are also on that dog, those dogs tend
to worry me most. Yesterday, I mean, you can't really
draw too many conclusions. Again, it was just one week.
The lines were up for a long time. These teams
had plenty of time to prepare for that one single opponent. Again,
I think this is week two is when you you know,
start uh not being able to draw conclusions. But I
think we're going to see some teams like how they
bounce back off of loss or off a win, and
again you got to take your time. Unfortunately for NFL,
it's a short season, so you never really are able
to get to that long term meaning. There's not enough
time for teams to regress and progress to the means
at time, So there's a lot of outliers. Unlike in baseball,
like we talked about long enough season, nobody's winning sixty two,
sixty five percent of their games. You're regressing, you're progressed,
and that's the bottom line. There's one hundred and sixty
two games played that will happen, but not so likely
in the NFL or college football. What stuck out to
me yesterday was the public money was betting those favorites
like they usually do. And you know, nothing's really changed,
you know, you know, with more and more information and
knowledge and more sports betters entering the party every day,
but that the biases are still the same. Man, They're
towards the favors, they're towards the over and books take
advantage of that every single day.
Speaker 1: Is it amazing, Giohanny, Like we do this every year
and then it's like we all know the publics be
playing money like favorites and teasers. We know the Browns
are gonna screw up a game somehow. We know this
team's gonna have a bad defense. We know this team's
offensive line is gonna be bad.
Speaker 2: Just like it's like, yeah, maybe this is a little
bit predictable from time to time. So time let's take
a look at baseball.
Speaker 1: We don't want to forget about baseball. There's tons of
tons of profits to be made in there. We're gonna
bring on Steve Wild to talk about one game in particular.
Speaker 2: What are you seeing here? I got got a lot
of games to pretty decent slate here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a good, good, good, good card today just
three signs one total. And also w NBA under Connecticut
Atlanta under CONNECTICU Atlanta. The reason I bring that up
is that's one of those where it's opposite with the
recreational betters are betting. We don't get heavy w NBA action,
but the couple bets that I have seen come in
from the recreational accounts, they've been on the over, but
that you have the sharp money coming in on the
under pay attention there now Major League Baseball nine to
fifty three New York Mets even money, nine to fifty
six Atlanta plus one fifteen, nine fifty eight San Diego
minus one thirty and then nine to seventy Milwaukee, Texas
over eight and a half. That's another one. The reason
hasn't gone up to nine yet as you're getting some
public money under there, so that's helped offset a lot
of that risk. So if you agree with that eight
and a half, jump on that before it gets to
nine and loses its value. So little slow in baseball,
but again it's only nine am here on the West Coast,
so we got plenty of time to see some more
action hit the window.
Speaker 2: Before we let you go. Any takeaways from college football
over the weekend, or any opening.
Speaker 1: Lines for college football that jumped off the page that
people are jumping on.
Speaker 3: No, no, no, I mean again, nothing really jumped out.
We're officially now they call it week two's over, but
it was more like week three, so we got more
data under our belts. That's what I'm looking for to
digging into this week's games, that we actually have something
behind it, not just like projecting, like we have some
data to go by, but nothing really stuck out. We
don't have like no huge huge losses by any big
favorites or anything like that. Nothing really out of the
ordinary happen on Saturday. But it's interesting seeing like some
of those higher profile games get that though big teams
have that loss already, you know what I mean, Like
a team like Texas, what do they do now that
have a loss like that? Those things kind of interest
me as we're going forward and how the sportsbooks are
going to handle that, because you know, those teams got
to win, and they got to win with margin. Now,
you know what I mean, you got a loss onto
your belt. You're not just showing up. But even against
a week team that you're a forty point favorite, you're
going to go in there looking to blow them out
by seventy. I think. So you look for style points
on some of those one loss teams that still had
playoff aspirations coming into the season. I think you could
get some value there.
Speaker 1: It's Monday Night football, got fladed baseball slate.
Speaker 2: What do you have up for clients over at wager two?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I got a two pack in the NFL. We're
coming off on Sunday Night Football four percent best bet
winner and we're rolling over on Monday Night Football. Confirmed
side in confirmed total, so they're both in the same package.
Four percent SIDNE, four percent total. Currently number one NFL
College football combined. You're gonna want to see what the
college football and NFL action is the rest of the season.
I'm getting some really good stuff, subscribers will tell you.
And hopefully we just keep cashing tickets. Man, when all
the dust settles. As long as we pick up a
couple units, things are good. So it's been to great
couple of weeks. But today we start off. Oh and oh,
but there is some soccer, so go to wager Fall.
There's the free picks page. I put up some premium
soccer for you as well. There's some World Cup friendlies
out there. And Mattagascar was big today. They laid the
points with Madagascar. They laid three to fifty with Madagascar
for one hundred and Madagascar. So I don't know. I
don't like eating that kind of chalk, but when I
see that kind of they're betting in every kind of way,
first half team total, when you're seeing them try to
just get down as many different ways on the side,
I pay attention. So that's the luck, whether you follo
or fade, hope, you have a winning week ahead.
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you see that kind of movement on soccer exactly,
somebody might know something something. It's like when there's a
random Yeah, It's like when there's a random tennis tournament.
It's like, why is everyone betting on this random?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 2: Oh, the other guys have got a pulled hamstring.
Speaker 1: That's why Giotti, the Greek everyone, thank you so much.
Have stories tomorrow we'll be cheering you on. Let's do
Let's take a look at the recap here. We're gonna
we're gonna look at some over reactions. We're gonna look
at where the books won, where the better is one.
We'll take a look at some props and fantasy football winners.
Let's start with over reactions. Let me know in the chat,
which one do you think is the most accurate or
which one is the most ridiculous. Dolphins are the worst
team in football. I saw that one a lot. Cultureal
jit threat in the AFC South overreaction Steelers and Jets
two of the best offenses.
Speaker 2: In the league.
Speaker 1: The Lions are now wrecked with losing the coordinators and
assistant coaches.
Speaker 2: The Cowboys are good.
Speaker 1: The Chiefs are going to miss the playoffs and everyone
wanting to cancel their Red Zone channel subscription because of
the commercials. That one was that that to me is
the clear overreaction winner for week one overreacting.
Speaker 2: So let me know what you guys think. Red Zone. Yep, yep, yep.
Speaker 1: A lot of a lot of a lot of dislike
for Red Zone and then all of a sudden, it's
really nice to have in your.
Speaker 2: Life on Sundays.
Speaker 1: So let's say, look at where the books won and
where the betters one uh block block that's not my
I'm I'm I go to social media for those I
ask people, that's that's not my opinion. They just go
to Twitter and look and see what's hot and what's not.
And that's that's where I h that's where I get those.
So that wasn't that wasn't me pretty clear cut. Where
the books won. The under in the Steelers and Jets
game was it was. It was over, very very early,
literally over, and then the Giants plus the points to
a big line movement on the Giants, and the Giants
they were who they thought we were, We're the public
one listened the money line parlays and teasers of the Broncos, Cardinals, Bengals,
and Commanders, and I gotta believe everyone did very, very
well in their survivor picks. Say a look at some
of the prop winners. I hope everyone did good in
fantasy football. Justin Fields had to be a big winner
for his props. Baker Mayfield to throw two touchdowns or more.
Just keeps cashing. Ricky pearsall, We're not going to get
that receiving line anymore.
Speaker 2: He looked fantastic anytime.
Speaker 1: Touchdowns for James Connor and Derrick Henry and Jalen Hurts.
Herbert continues to not throw interceptions at a makeup Boka.
Tampa Bay looked great with him there. Fantasy and props
Losers Lions. I'm not panicking on the Lions just yet,
but Saint Brown, Gibbs and Montgomery were horrible.
Speaker 2: The Bengals were terrible.
Speaker 1: Chat already pointed that out Burrow Chase Higgins were bad,
Nico Collins was bad, and that Texans offensive line looks
as bad as it was last year. A. J. Brown
was a bummer, Pacheco who knows what is going on
in the Chiefs backfield, and Bucky Irving was quite disappointing
as well. Those are your props and fantasy football winners
and losers. Let's bring on Bill crack Man. I'm interested
in your take NFL Week one over reactions, big winners,
big losers.
Speaker 2: What'd you take away?
Speaker 7: Andy?
Speaker 6: You know, I actually liked your list wherever you just
got that from.
Speaker 7: It's fantastic. But I'm going to agree with the public too.
The commercials on red zone is stupid. The idea is
to get red zones to get all your plays in,
have your things, I mean, you know, to watch everything
as it's happening. I don't want to have a commercial
when when someone's you know, in the red zone, hence
to say the red zone. But yeah, so that kind
of pisses me off. But nothing what'll surprised me with
ESPN But yeah, and some of those things, of course,
they're overreactions. And what people don't fail to realize is
whatever the public is thinking. Trust me, that is already
in the next week's forecasted numbers. When they when they
the bookmaker that puts them out, they put them out
knowing that that's what the public's going to think. They're
going to think. Teams like oh, maybe you know, the
Pittsburgh's better than we thought with Rogers. And you know
there's some clear cut ones there too, though, especially like
like Kansas City maybe or even you know, even Buffalo.
Even Buffalo's defense was very suspect. So of course the
next week's going to add an extra half a point
or a point on the total, thinking that Buffalo is
going to score a lot of points and their defense sucks.
Speaker 6: So you know what I'm trying to say.
Speaker 7: Is, don't think you can outsmart the bookmakers. You know,
God blesses the bookmakers.
Speaker 6: Look what happened. That's my old saying, Look what happened
on and.
Speaker 7: The show I do on Fox Sports Radio nationwide, we
talked about we talked to their head of trading, so
and I see them all the time and say, listen,
God bless the bookmakers. I mean, one of their biggest
bets was on the They needed the under on the
Dallas game.
Speaker 6: Just think about that.
Speaker 7: They were like heavy, heavy, six figures under. How do
they win that? All over money came in. It was
one of their biggest risks for the week. And by
the way, the Eagles, the Eagles was giant for them.
People Late seven, late seven and a half even late
eight on the Eagles. So that was one of their
biggest wins for the week was that game. All the
bookmakers though, that's just the representation of the bookmakers in
general how they did for the weekend. They did very
well again, So don't let anyone kid you and say,
oh I the a couple of favorites win. People tease
them down, they throw them in the money line, and
you know it doesn't matter. The bookmakers absolutely kill it
because of the teaser juice, the parlays.
Speaker 6: Everyone's up. You know.
Speaker 7: I call them chowel maners, like when you when you
when you go to a Chinese restaurant and the waiter
comes to you and you don't know what you want,
and you've been waiting there thirty minutes and you don't
know what you want. You know, give me the chow maine,
you know, because you're a child mayner. That's what they
do with these child maners. They go to the line
last minute. They're online and every sportsbook in America has
people who get shut out. Why they can't make their
decision up. It's just like the guy who ordered the
Chinese food. He can't make a decision up. He goes
to the window and just say, oh, give me, give me,
and then they get shut out. I mean, it's amazing.
We have a we have a challenge on one of
my shows, and it's a it's called the Crack Challenge.
Five games against the spread every week at five minutes
before post. So it's just that hard to beat. And
I've had some professionals got five percent. That's how hard
it is to beat an efficient line. That's why Week
one was so tough. Andy too, these lines have been
out for months, so you know, like like when I'm
getting to a Colts game back in June plus one
and a half and now they're minus one and a half.
Speaker 6: You can't give that out to the public.
Speaker 7: You know.
Speaker 6: That's another thing to Andy.
Speaker 7: I hate, I hate, and some of them I know
they're actually some friends of mine.
Speaker 6: I can't stand when people send out games.
Speaker 7: Oh bet games three fifty nine Arizona over at hard Rock.
That's gonna be your official play one one FN sportsbook
has it, and you want to tell people that's and
now you want to grade you're over thirty nine when
it's forty everywhere and the game lands on forty, and
now you're going to grade it the winner because Hard Rock.
Speaker 6: And Florida had it.
Speaker 7: Or ESPN bet where no one that has a pulse
can bet and they get thrown out, or DraftKings that
throws out on anyone that wins over one hundred dollars on
a bet.
Speaker 6: You know, I'm going after some sportsbooks today. I hate
to usually mention of my name, but yeah, this is
what I get. So I'm kind of pissed off about
a couple things.
Speaker 7: And you know, this weekend was a weekend where I
had great closing line value. And I'm not making excuses,
but hey, I actually lost on Sunday. Most of the
pros that I didn't get to hear what Giohanny said,
but I'm guaranteeing he said lots of the pros. Did
I mean for me to get out, get to get
to Atlanta early afford a line move? I mean not actually,
and Seattle actually seen these games at post time minus one,
I took two and a half. I gave him out
two and a half these games too. But at the end,
like just to see those two teams choked, Seattle was
dominating the whole game.
Speaker 6: Atlanta missed the chippy field goal at the end. I mean, uh,
some of these guys are amazing.
Speaker 7: They can kick sixty some yarders, but yet when the
pressure's on, they can't kick thirty five.
Speaker 6: They can't kick an extra point, so which is unbelievable.
Speaker 7: But yeah, no, it was Uh, it was a it
was a weekend. Uh that was a little chopping on Saturday,
but a small win actually.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 7: For for like, I had Dallas. I hate giving all
these sides out, but people one side, so Dallas. I
thought it was gonna be a great NFL week. I
had Dallas plus the points and and and then you know,
you come right into getting a closing line value. Months
ago I sent out Kansas City pick them minus like thirty.
And boy, now here's an overreaction. Do you really think
the Chiefs are that bad? And you think they're not
gonna learn off of a week you know, overseas and
come back here and and just not be the team
that used to be.
Speaker 6: Maybe not, maybe not, but.
Speaker 7: They're not gonna miss the playoffs, right, I mean I
don't think so. But yeah, so it's it's first week.
I'm really happy to get over that and get some
unique lines in here. We got Monday Night football tonight.
That's the old black and blue game there, and you
know that that this game is a great division rival
game tonight. The sharps are back and forth on this.
Speaker 6: I know. I bet it when it was plus one
and a half.
Speaker 7: When the line light came out, I bet Minnesota. Now
they're minus one and a half, and see a perfect example.
I can't give that out to people and told people
to tell people to buy that.
Speaker 6: It's not fair. It's not fair.
Speaker 7: Now. Granted, I think Minnesota is gonna be a better
team this year. I think they're gonna be a better
team than people think. I like McCarthy, I like just organization.
I actually made some future bets on them, but I
thought Chicago. I like the under on things on Chicago
season wins. Not to make the playoffs. Well, one of
my one of my guys that I really respect, he
actually likes Chicago to make the playoffs. So you know,
you get back and forth, but I gotta stick with
I gotta stick.
Speaker 6: With what I gotta stick with. Though. I got with Minnesota.
Speaker 7: And if you have to make a bet on something,
my god, I would I would suggest a money line
on Minnesota.
Speaker 6: I like Minnesota to my old Division game. Love love that,
But you know.
Speaker 7: I know it's hard for people to stay off the games, Andy,
Monday night football games on TV.
Speaker 1: It shouldn't be it shouldn't be hard. I'm not playing
anything on it at six and four days, No, I
know it. It's our it's our public service announcement. You
don't have to bet Monday Night Football.
Speaker 2: You like any props in this game?
Speaker 1: I was, as I'm on the fence, I kind of
like DeAndre Swift over his rushing and receiving couldn't get there.
A sneaky one is Caleb Williams not to throw an interception.
I think he only had four games with an interception
last year, but nothing. I actually got to the window
with my own money.
Speaker 7: On you know, Andy, It's funny, right, I used to
be like seventy five seventy eight percent all unders on
my props. It's closing. It's getting closer to fifty to
fifty now, so I'm going to give you an over
that I bet. I like loveling over receiving yards twenty
seven and a half minus fifteen. I'm looking at the
bet MGM line. You know, you know new coach Ben
Jonson there he should have a he really should have
a ton of two tight end sets.
Speaker 6: So I like him over.
Speaker 7: Caleb Williams likes those little short routes, so I like
his over.
Speaker 6: On his yards tonight.
Speaker 7: So there's a there's a there's a prop that I
put my money where my mouth is tonight.
Speaker 6: There we go.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you got some Titan says he likes running back Mason.
I was this is the books are lining this backfield
like it's a true split. If you saw the numbers,
they got Aaron Jones at like fifty three and a
half and Jordan Mason's at thirty nine and a half.
So it's like books are telling us both both guys
are going.
Speaker 2: To get it. I like that Loveland prop a lot.
You can tell the books a struggle with some of
these props because they're just vanilla numbers.
Speaker 6: So if you have a.
Speaker 1: Strong opinion one way or the other, you can really
you can really get after them. So let's see anything
else but anything you like an MLB or you know,
you know.
Speaker 7: You know, I kind of step back now when from
you from Major League Baseball a little bit, a little bit,
but as far as going back to the football, you know,
on a prop I have no problem with you're going over.
Speaker 6: You are are two different compared.
Speaker 7: To a side on a or a total on a
football game. If I tell you to go over forty
three and it's forty five, I'm not going to tell
you to go over forty five. But sure enough, like
like Loveland's over twenty seven and a half minus fifteen,
then I've seen over twenty nine and a half minus
one ten. I have no problem doing that and suggesting
that in case people want to know about that.
Speaker 6: Granted, you should have more outs.
Speaker 7: If you have more outs, you're gonna find I'm always
going to release things that are available at many places.
So I look at the DraftKings line, look at the
fan duel line, which many people have a big part
of the public's repertoire there is to bet those places.
Speaker 6: I sure wish I can.
Speaker 7: Bet in there, and so I try to give out
an available line. Of course, I'm not going to give
out something like I said before I went off on
that rant.
Speaker 6: How about these unders week week one too. That's another thing.
Speaker 7: So if you look yesterday the first set of games,
it looked like they were all gonna fly over all
the first tasks were going over and then eleven and two.
I think even with this new kickoff rule, which is
totally totally insane, you.
Speaker 6: Know you like it.
Speaker 7: Thirty five I kind of like, totally have to get
You only have to get twenty yards. And these guys
are going for sixty sixty three yard field goals. They're
trying to kick them sixty yards.
Speaker 2: You didn't like it, you didn't.
Speaker 6: It's okay.
Speaker 7: I'm all I'm doing is stating fact that I think
these were gonna I thought the NFL was gonna take
a while to adjust and there was gonna be a
lot more points scored in these games, and and to
not see it actually surprised me.
Speaker 6: But you know, I think I think people will get.
Speaker 7: Used to it and it's fun. Listen, it's conducive to
more scoring. They want more scoring, they want fans to
have that retention. So but I was surprised that all
the the unders that came in yesterday. Bill's Ravens in
the fourth quarter was just crazy. To last night, that
was just football, man. Look look at how do you
just toss a coin there? If you would have bet
that game, literally, uh, you know, you could have won
either sides if you have all different outs, and you've
been paying ahead different months. You could have got to
the lines either side. You could have had plus one
and a half on that game. So interesting games, a
lot of fun. And yeah, no, we've got some new
stuff up there for Wader talk. Two hundred bucks again
for the month.
Speaker 6: I don't know.
Speaker 7: I could have swore I talked to the guys and
they were discontinuing that two last week. I don't know,
but I see it up there now, So there you go.
I mean, I've never had I've never charged us to
five hundred dollars for a month, So, uh, there's something
to get on.
Speaker 6: Jump on it right now. We're gonna have a lot.
Speaker 7: Of props week two, three, four, you're gonna get week
five in there, and uh yeah, I'm sure you'll come back.
Speaker 6: So there it is.
Speaker 1: We got we got a new one for you. We
got a new code for you. Uh crack wins sixty nine.
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Speaker 7: Anything USUALLY i wouldn't show that money like. That that
was a. Photo WHEN i was going up to the
window the other day to sign up for the one
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can we film as ever? Ahead i'm bringing up both
one hundred thousand to and we Had denver and That
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Speaker 6: Sweat that was a, sweat even though they wont my.
Speaker 7: Eight let me tell, you, Yes tennessee was driving there
at One time's going to go.
Speaker 6: Ahead that was a. Sweat even, SO i don't.
Speaker 7: Know, now that doesn't Mean tennessee's better that people, thought
and it doesn't Mean denver is worse than people.
Speaker 6: Thought just any Given, sunday anything can.
Speaker 1: Happen, Absolutely Bill, crackman use that promo code crack wins
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thank you. So much can't wait to do it Again.
Next Monday, Bill, crackman everyone we got. Another special if
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Speaker 1: That in over at wager talk, dot com let's Bring In.
Steve merrill and this Is. Weird steve normally we do This,
on tuesday and you got a five dollar bill.
Speaker 2: Coming across but we're. Gonna talk we can we can
we get Five? Dollars? Monday sure? Why not this is.
Speaker 8: Called foreshadowing this IS call I can I? Predict Tomorrow,
On tuesday, september ninth will be a fantastic special offer
a wager Talk dot com called Five. Dollar tuesday we
are less than we're actually less than eight. Hours away
people don't. Know, this andy a little insider. Information here
monday night Eight o'clock eastern is officially in Five dollars
tuesday begins so Tonight on monday after eight, o'clock eastern
Right after monday night football. Kicks off when you're jones
and for, more action there will be some advanced five
dollar best bets starting. To Trickle a blncoln starts to
trickle trickle onto the site at eight O'clock.
Speaker 1: Eastern monday Five dollars tuesday sounds a lot better than
five dollar eight o'clock.
Speaker 3: Five dollar, monday Night after monday night football.
Speaker 2: Kicks off. Be, there yes absolutely shut that.
Speaker 1: One down Speaking of monday, night football let's. Talk it
let's get your breakdown For the vikings And. The bears,
OF course i mean lots of. STORIES HERE. J j
McCarthy making. A start we got new Coaching. In chicago
this is an interesting. Game here it's right AROUND even
i mean you can tell the books are don't have.
Speaker 2: A strong opinion one way or.
Speaker 1: The other even that forty three and a half seems
like a pretty. Vague line so there are leaven some.
Opportunities here if you've got a. Strong opinion what's your
breakdown on?
Speaker 8: This, game yeah the only thing better than Five dollars
tuesday Is Free monday. Night FOOTBALL and i did a
video for this game a couple of. Days ago it's online.
Right now deep dive Breakdown For. Vikings bears i'm gonna
give you the free play right here On water talk today.
AS well i Like The chicago bears in this game
as a live. Home Dog ralph michaels was On last
tuesday right before me here with you and you On wager,
talk Today and ralph had that CHART Of nfl divisional
teams doing very Well in week one sixty five percent
over the past decade. Divisional dogs that is doing well in,
week one and it makes a lot. Of sense teams
know each, other well they have the whole summer, to
prepare and the team that's often the weaker team makes
adjustments where the better team doesn't. Have TO and i
think that'll definitely be the case in. This game bears last.
Year struggled they only out gained four of their seventeen
opponents in. Total yards there was nothing misleading about that
five and twelve, losing record but they do have a,
New Coach, ben johnson and they've got the more experienced.
Quarterback here and One thing ralph pointed out in that
chart last week was how good divisional home dogs have
been the real. Sweet spot, in fact over the past
decade and, a half they were eighteen and four against.
The spread we missed out With The atlanta falcons in,
that role although that game went off in a pick
them yesterday and we all know that could have gone.
Either way atlanta probably should have won that game in.
My opinion we did see Both the Cowboys and chargers
Cover on Thursday and friday night as the Visional dogs giants. Missed,
out Yesterday the lions, missed OUT but i had a
best bet On. The Packers the lions were the most
public underdog on the Board, for sunday so definitely did
not like. That one but this is a public divisional,
dog RATHER which i think is. Live Tonight and i'm
going to go back to something you said IS about
jj McCarthy and not only making his, first start he's
like throwing HIS first nfl regular. Season, pass ever he
only played limited preseason. Last year he got hurt of
the first game Against, the raiders missed the entire season his,
rookie YEAR and i believe he only played a one
preseason game. This year so you talk About green monday,
night football hostile environment on the road AGAINST what i
think is An improved bear squad with a, new scheme,
new coach, new motion And Then caleb williams 'reing getting the,
better quarterback the more experienced quarterback as a home underdog
in a, divisional game which is a strong angle to.
Start WITH so i Like the bears in. This one
if you want a little at, it protection they do
probably make a pretty good. Teaser play now that it's
sitting at plus one and, a half you can get
them up to seven and a half. Or more we've
talked About how week one is not ideal for teasers
because the lines are a, little softer but if you
look back yesterday and this week, in general teasers have done.
Pretty Well philadelphia eagles covered, the teaser didn't cover. The
line you, Look yesterday seattle one and a half two
point home divisional dog also covered, the teaser but did
not cover the two. Point line lost by Four the
broncos eight to nine. Point favorite they win by. Exactly
eight the most public player of the week would have covered,
the teaser so you of course have to tie that
up with some advanced games for next weekend IN. The
NFL but i Like. THE bears i think they're a
live dog plus one and a half, money line and
they make a pretty solid six point teaser at seven
and a half or more.
Speaker 1: As well let's MOVE to mlb. Real quick can't Forget
About Major. League baseball let's Talk this Mets. And PHILLIES
and i was looking at the pitching matchups for today,
and tomorrow and it's amazing that two of the same
teams you gonna have such vastly different pitching situations compared.
Speaker 2: To just like literally twenty four. Hours apart so it.
Looks up we got McLain For. The mets he's, been
sharp only four, earned runs twenty. Six, innings pitch. We
got what's your take On This.
Speaker 8: Mets, phillies yeah it's an interesting matchup because they just
played at the End of august about just over a,
week Ago and nolan McClay made his first start Against
the phillies in. That game, in fact he's had very
limited action this. Season overall he has only. Four starts
but as, You said he's been an excellent one point
three TO, seven era and part of that was an
eight inning shutout just two weeks Ago in august twenty
seventh Against, the phillies and he gave up just, four
hits so he had. THEIR number i do think they'll
have a little bit more of an edge this time
after just. Seeing him they'll make, some adjustments but he has. Been,
Fantastic Meanwhile aaron nola has not been For the phillies,
this season limited due. To injury he missed, three months
was out In, mid may did not come back Until,
mid august and he was awful in the debut against
Not My washington nationals on the road In. Mid august
he gave up six runs and just, two innings and
he hasn't been much. Better since gave up seven runs
over twelve innings his next, two stars and they got
lit up Against, the brewers maybe the best team in baseball,
last week giving up six runs in just. Five INNINGS
so i need to see Something. From nola, you know
a lot of times these guys struggle in their first
couple outings and then they turned. Things on but he's
had four subpar outings now since coming back from injury
overall this year an awful six point EIGHT e ra
and sixty nine innings. Of, Work dude and this is
a guy that's a pure faide. For me and by,
the Way the mets current lineup tonight too eighty five career,
batting average and that's over two hundred and eighty at
bats eighty for two eighty one two eighty five. Career
average So the mets hit. Him well nola's in bad.
Current form, you know the game total at eight and
A half i think has Value with nola himself given
up six and a half runs per, nine innings and
nine is a very. Key number but if you want
to take, you know McLain out of, the situation since
he did shut Down, the phillies we can always look
at a. Team totally you can Get the mets over
four and a half at almost. EVEN money i do
Think the phillies over three and a half could be
worth a look, as WELL as i do think they'll
hit McClain better here this second. Time around but, Once
again mets over four and a half Runs Against aaron
nola has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball.
THIS year i think has some values to Not. A
monday and by, the way this IS The Mlb NETWORK
national tv game at six Forty. Five eastern there are
eleven baseball games on the board Tonight and i've gotten
nearly half of them analyzed from my clients and. For
free i've got three strong best, bets TONIGHT and i
made a three for one triple play don't Sleep on
Baseball in september. LAST year i finished on an incredible
fifty seven and twenty eight best bet winning run over
the final few months of the. Baseball season i've also
got a bonus play for one of your late games
tonight In The, american league and also a free play
video on the other late Game The national league Between
the Diamondbacks and giants right here free On WAGER. Talk
tv so lots of baseball still to be played the next.
Couple months cash in big and this is your last
chance to get seven days, all sports football and baseball
for just seventy. Seven dollars Steve merrillwager talk dot com
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Speaker 2: What a nightmare YEAR For nola like this, poor guy.
Speaker 8: You should have stayed injured.
Speaker 2: Every time he steps on. The mound it's just like
this ball flying out out of. The stadium so great, Work.
There steve takeaways.
Speaker 1: From week one on Your Team so andrews, team won my,
Team won dan's.
Speaker 2: Team won your. Team one how are?
Speaker 8: You feeling Not My, washington commanders which would mean if,
THEY win, i lose not until They're the. Redskins again but,
you know there's a lot of excitement obviously with them
MAKING The Nfc championship game the. Last year i've said
SEVERAL times i thought the best player of the season
Was The philadelphia eagles last year in that game Fading.
THE commanders i just couldn't see them In The. SUPER
bowl i still think they regress. This season and let's,
be Honest the giants are expected to be one of
the worst teams. In football we'll see a stiffer test
this week for Not My, washington commanders as. They believe
They play thursday night football against a feisty little team
Called The Green, bay PACKERS and i will have a
free play. VIDEO up i might actually record, It, today
andy and it'll be up nice and early probably Tomorrow
on tuesday For that thursday. Night game, but yeah their
defense looked okay that. WAS impressive i Thought the giant
would get Where the giants had a chance to score
late they. Were driving ONE thing i will, point, out
though is we've talked about Is that week one is
Kind of week four a of the preseason still and
we will often see Results in week one that do
not correlate to the rest of. THE season i heard
you talking About the Colts and. Dolphins earlier obviously that
was just a blowout offensive game For. The colts we'll
see if that translates to the rest of. The season
but for the, MOST part i think thinks kind of
win as they should tough loss to end. The weekend
we Had The baltimore ravens. LAST time i also did
a free play video for everybody With the ravens. This week,
you know sixteen points in the final four minutes they
allow after a fumble from one of the best running backs.
In history by, the Way the ravens end game had
a ninety nine percent chance of winning straight up with
four minutes. To go so if You, had buffalo you
had a one percent chance and you got. It done,
you know we'll see If that bill's defense gets. Any
better If the ravens offense is really that good minus.
Speaker 1: The, Fumble Yeah, derek henry they had a live line
on his rushing it was like one seventy six and
a half and he was. Over it and then on
that fumble they took away, nine yards so.
Speaker 2: They, really yes you had, a winner and then all
of a sudden you had a Little.
Speaker 8: Like wow that might be the worst bad beat form
one of the worst said beats in the History Of
sunday night.
Speaker 2: Fo football that's a.
Speaker 1: Bad, beat Yeah When derreck henry he gets over and
then they take away nine yards because.
Speaker 8: Of the once again one of the best running backs,
in history He Passed jim brown for career touchdowns. Last
night that's how Good THAT and i consider you know
comment in, THE chat I Consider jim brown the greatest
football player just because he dominated more at his time
than anybody's. EVER dominated i think that's how you have
to look. At, it, so yeah that's. Just insane THAT'S.
The nfl FOR the nfl, is, back.
Speaker 2: Brutal brutal anytime the books need, to win it's like they.
Speaker 8: Just do don't, go there don't beat getting conspiracy. On,
me now Come On Thursday night football said that was
one hundred and seventy two and one to the over
when the team had a forty one points in the
half and the total was fifty, or less it was
one hundred and seventy two to one to. The over
it's now one seventy two. TO two i think there's
A chance i had that, other ONE because I know
i had a game a couple of. Years ago it
was Like a. COLTS game i think we. Are allions
we had like forty some points in the half and it,
stayed UNDER but i think the total was like, fifty
two so.
Speaker 6: It might not a technically.
Speaker 8: Qualified yeah but by, The, way andy real quick for
the viewers, out there if we ever get a situation like,
that again that was one of the best in game
live betting. Opportunities ever, in hindsight nine touchdowns and field
goals in a fumble before, the delay and then five
straight punts end of, game afterwards there is no question
that nearly one hour delay allowed the defensive coordinators to
make the adjustments the zigzag like we see IN the. Nba,
playoffs now it might not work in, all games but
if we get a back and forth shootout, like that
that gets a weather delay here in the next couple.
OF weeks i think that in game under is probably worth. A, wager.
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah bummer.
Speaker 1: BUMMER man i lost a five percent on under one
and a half rain delays this week at minus.
Speaker 2: Seventeen thousand, sorry.
Speaker 4: Guys win by, the way my team didn't Right.
Speaker 6: On saturday it's Actually.
Speaker 8: Almost sunday they wonted eleven Forty five eastern because they
had two one hour. LIFE delays i didn't even gone
to the stadium yet three either one because they kept
kicking fans out and that game went took for their
like ten people in. The arena, so weather it was
wreaking havoc On the east coast, this week and we
might get some more that we got a couple, more
months a couple more Weeks. OF september i do think
that is a good betting strategy to look for the.
Contrarian call, you, know however the game was going look
for the opposite after the.
Speaker 1: Long delay, All Right, steve merrill have A. Great monday
he's in in playing. Baseball tonight so taking Advantage Of
steve merrill over at wager talk, Dot, com.
Speaker 2: Dan what what?
Speaker 7: Is this?
Speaker 2: Shots fired if, you're live if you're betting a live
rushing total it It Won.
Speaker 4: Dave mason and wrote that comment That Was. Dave mason that.
Wasn't me he was. The one, pullie won it, didn't.
Speaker 1: Win didn't win until it didn't never won and lost the.
Speaker 2: Same Bet, yeah no that's that's.
Speaker 4: Pretty brutal that's that's.
Speaker 9: PRETTY brutal I just i had to see if you
were paying attention to The chat andy.
Speaker 10: Ass check, all, right WELL while i got you, on
here we're GONNA get i, WANT dance, I went I
went dan's opinion, on something and then we'll do all
around the world to give you guys.
Speaker 2: Some freedom, All Right, so dan you're you're the.
Speaker 1: Representation of everybody That had denver In. Their survivor So.
Speaker 6: So.
Speaker 1: Lord the game starts and, you're, like, Oh no bonix
is gonna play. Awful today and then what was your
thoughts when it's, Fourth down, they're, like well we could
ice it with a, field goal we could. Punt, it
no we're gonna go, for it and we're gonna Throw
A hail mary bomb.
Speaker 2: To nobody so walk. Us, through uh what what was
it Like having denver In?
Speaker 9: The SURVIVOR all i know is it was our esteem
leader Who is it Was a denver Fan In, Kelly
vegas Kelly, and vegas, who said If oh nick throws,
two interceptions we're all gonna lose our survivor player, at
least or at least lose. The cover if people were
Looking At, denver broncos and that was just ringing in.
Speaker 4: My HEAD when i saw the first Turnover, FROM.
Speaker 9: Bonex i, was Like, oh God the denver hype that
we were sold heading into the season is biting them
so hard in the ass right now because they're just
playing down. To competition, and really if you think of
you know what you've Got With sean payton over his,
entire career world beaters who they will play down to.
Their competition so LIKE why i expected anything different.
Speaker 4: Was crazy BUT all i had was.
Speaker 9: Visions dancing in My head andy of what happened last
year With the bengals when they were. The TEAM and
i said it with You on FRIDAY when i said
they could be This, year's, bengals right because it's that
much of a. Slam spot it's a, slam dunk and whenever,
that happens it makes.
Speaker 4: Me nervous but. It wasn't There wasn't there were, Several,
moments ANDY where i, was like, Holy shit. I'm screwed
BUT then i, was like but the team they're playing is,
So bad like they were doing nothing to make.
Speaker 9: Me nervous it was Only the broncos that were making.
Me nervous so we got. It, HOME andy i was
even towards the end Of that cardinals game, FOR you
i was starting to sweat a.
Speaker 4: LITTLE bit i, was Like is rattler really about to tie?
Speaker 1: This game like very cardinalsy, very yeah very cardinalsy.
Speaker 2: Of them oh we're killing, this team let's let them back.
In it lucky.
Speaker 1: FOR me i don't know if you saw the, last play, it's,
like again it's, fourth down it's the last play of.
Speaker 2: The game maybe you should keep the ball. In bounds
spencer just throws it out.
Speaker 4: Of bounds out of the.
Speaker 2: The end wouldn't wear, it hurt but but we had a.
Great way, we survived and. We survived.
Speaker 1: WE survived i Did we WE had i Put the
jags in several of our of our picks on.
Speaker 11: BET online i loved We used we Used the jags
and make it myself so the circa and we end
up going two and Three because falcons end up, Screwing
us seahawks end up, screwing us and we Had.
Speaker 4: The dolphins that was just a.
Speaker 9: Wrong side but the ONE that i wanted to trade
out For the Dolphins, was JAGS and i really Wanted
the raiders in. Our, entry unfortunately, My, cohort adam, you
know he gets the. Final set he's the guy who
actually went and got the proxy, sign up so he
gets the final stamp.
Speaker 4: On, it, so hey what are you? Gonna do two?
Speaker 9: And three at least it wasn't an zero to, five
week doesn't take us down, contention exactly and there will
be a five and oh week in COMING and i
will be insufferable when.
Speaker 4: That happens the guys you can watch that. Every Week.
Speaker 9: Every thursday We're Doing Let's, make millions Me And adam
rosenberg sharing our circum millions.
Speaker 4: Entry card so, but ay we. Did survive, We survived
SO the I will survive story. We could the graphic lives.
Another week the graphics lives.
Speaker 1: ANOTHER week i, GOT that i got that forty nine
ers team circled Against. The, SAINTS yeah I don't i
don't care that they got close to.
Speaker 2: The air they were non competitive. In, that yeah it's terrible.
Speaker 9: Early early look for, Me, TOO andy I think i'm
a sadist. FOR punishment I think i'm gonna go back
to the well On. The dolphins there's nobody wants to
Bet the dolphins. This week and and and here's one
thing that went Under the.
Speaker 2: Raidara, win outright?
Speaker 4: ARE you I Think i'm they're one and a half.
Speaker 9: Point favorites so if it's the if the contest line
comes around to pick them comes around. To one here's
the thing for me Is the patriots came looked awful
too because of all the other crazy stuff that happened
that's going under.
Speaker 4: The radar and this is to Come to.
Speaker 9: Jesus moment this is one of those plays where everybody thinks,
ONE way i want to be on the other side
of the bar, with myself just sitting there dancing. With
myself so so maybe that's what we'll. BE doing i
haven't put it, in yet, but yeah it might be
a little dancing with myself special And the dolphins may be.
Speaker 6: A bed.
Speaker 1: All, right well let's close out with all around. The
world let's do some free plays for. IT today a
couple of these come off OF the uh wager talk for.
Picked page we got a prop Here For monday. NIGHT
football i would Look At caleb williams over twenty and
a half. Pass completions the last seven games of twenty
twenty Four With ben johnson was With. The lions goff
easily flew over. This number Now Bear ben johnson's head
coach Of. The bears running game For the bears not
as good As, The LIONS so i think they're Gonna.
Speaker 2: Get caleb comfortable with a lot of.
Speaker 1: Quick passes he had eighteen and thirty two completions in
two Games against minnesota.
Speaker 2: LAST year i think they've upgraded. Everything There so.
Speaker 1: Brewers At THE rangers. I met that graphic. Is wrong
it's supposed To say brewers. Money, line sorry it's supposed To.
SAY brewis i have no IDEA why I typed rangers on.
That one that's, My. Bad quintana For, the brewers he's
won four out of. Last five brewers are just crushing
and they swept their last series and they scored ten.
Runs yesterday my apologize from the. Graphics apartment Cubs, at
braves Look at elder over seventeen and a.
Speaker 2: Half outs he's gone over in six out of the last.
Speaker 1: Seven games last two games he's went twenty one and
the last game Against the cubs he went twenty one outs.
As well so take a Look at elder to go
deep into. That game, all right thanks, very much appreciate.
You guys it's been A. Great monday my Five dollars
tuesday play will be up at eight. O'clock tonight it's,
four TOMORROW but i already know what it's. Gonna be
it's the only Play that i'm gonna have up today.
For clients we're Sitting Out monday night football because we
had a really good DAY in nfl yesterday going six
and four on. Our prop so anytime you can walk
out a week one with six And, four sunday you're
gonna be.
Speaker 2: Really happy so we're gonna Sit Out monday.
Speaker 1: Night football but at, eight o'clock, get ready we got
a four percent play that's going up for Five. Dollars
tuesday big discount on. That one don't.
Speaker 2: Forget the like button on the.
Speaker 1: Way out leave a comment in the comment section and
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