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Speaker 1: What's going on? Umber one, it's wager Talk Last Call.

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I am so excited that we've got week two underway

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and all the numbers. Everything you need to know, it's

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all right here. I Wager Talk Stack show is always today,

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as we've got Yanny the Greek Life from Las Vegas

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taking you behind the counter, telling you everything. His sharp

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groups are on. Carmine also going to break things down

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for us. John Murray Super Book. You know them, you

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love them. He's telling us the needs on the book

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because if you want to be on the winning side,

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we always know the book tends to win more than

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we do. And then Pres, he's got his show at

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one o'clock when you can watch Pres go live and

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he can talk about all the different games on this

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slate that he's watching and you can watch him have

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a meltdown. I'll talk about the show. I'll tell you

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what action he's on. Staxton loaded, ready to go. I've

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got some prop edges as well. Let's start though with

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the man, Yanni the Greek Yanni. Happy Week two.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, good morning, busy morning.

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Speaker 1: Busy morning, as always. How was UFC last night? By

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the way, I had you good?

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Speaker 3: I had a good turned the profit in the UFC

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lost in boxing with Canelo. I hit the undercard bet

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but lost my Canelo bet, And you know, it's crazy,

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It's exactly how I expected it to go. With the

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score cards in his favor. If only one more round

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was scored in his direction, it would have been a draw,

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even though he really lost that fight like it was

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that heavily swayed in his favor in Las Vegas, which

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is the reason I thought was enough to back Canelo,

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like if he doesn't get finished. I didn't think they

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were gonna give Crawford the decision. It came very close

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to that happening.

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Speaker 2: So that was wild, but overall good. It's been a

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good month.

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Speaker 3: Still number one in college football, number one college football

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and fel combined.

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Speaker 2: So let's just keep doing damage. Not all that much

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coming in early.

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Speaker 3: Usually I have first quarter bets by now, first half

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bets by now. Some team totals nope, nope, nope, nope.

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Speaker 2: I don't know week two, they're there. It's slow.

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Speaker 3: It's been signs in totals so far, and a lot

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of baseball this morning, so I'm thinking it's gonna get

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busy over the last hour.

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Speaker 1: Oh Okay, So if we don't have any of these

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smaller markets like first quarterbets and whatnot, where have you

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seen the most action come in on for sides?

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Speaker 2: Oh that that's pretty easy. Here are the biggest sides

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right now.

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Speaker 3: Uh, the latest is the Cowboys, Cowboys, Cowboys, cowboys, nothing

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but cowboy money Jets, believe it or not. That's why

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that line's now threw that touchdown. The Jets are one

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of those dogs that.

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Speaker 2: Are getting a lot of love early.

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Speaker 4: And who else?

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Speaker 2: Who else? Oh forty nine?

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Speaker 3: Even though that line's dropped and the wise guys took Arizona. Uh,

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the Saints forgive me getting all those points because of Kittle,

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because of Party.

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Speaker 2: The public doesn't mind.

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Speaker 3: They're still coming in with San Francisco today and then Arizona.

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Arizona is going to be big risk for the books

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later because there's going to be a ton of straight bets,

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a ton of moneyline parlays, and a ton of teasers,

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all closing with the Carolina Panthers. And yeah, that's pretty

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much it. I mean again, good spread out action. But

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those are the ones attracting the most money so far,

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Dallas forty nine ers and I have to say the

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Arizona Cardinals. Biggest risk for the book.

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Speaker 1: So far, the big game of the day is the

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Eagles and the Chiefs. Where have you seen most action

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come in on for that really short one and a

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half point spread exactly?

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Speaker 2: And it's kind of flipped back and forth staying around

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that one.

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Speaker 3: This is a great matchup to be a book maker

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in because there's really very little risk. They're booking good

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two way action, even like with parlays and teasers, getting

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good two AA action, So not much risk at all

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for the books. I actually made the Eagles a favorite

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in the game. I made my total about forty five

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forty five and a half, so I don't think I'm.

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Speaker 2: Gonna be able to get down. It's right around where

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that number is.

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Speaker 3: I know all the excitement again is on that Super

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Bowl rematch, But so far, what I can tell you

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is good split two way action from the recreational betters

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and nothing from the wise guys except they got out

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ahead on the over. They went over forty six and

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a half when that total opened. But pay attention to

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the log Odds logic screen and see if there's TakeBack

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on that one, because again that's a high profile standalone

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more or less late afternoon game that's going to get

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a lot of over money from the recreational betters.

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Speaker 1: I actually just saw my Ravens line moved to twelve

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and a half largest spread on the board this week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and here's the thing. We bet the Browns earlier

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in the week at.

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Speaker 1: Please tell me that, Yannie.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah at plus twelve line dropped earlier. It was

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like my sharper shops, I'm even seeing thirteen thirteen and

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a half, but.

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Speaker 3: It was down to like eleven and a half area

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because we took the points with the Browns.

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Speaker 2: But since then they came back with the Ravens.

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Speaker 3: And again, a lot of that has to do with

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late injury information that you know, the official injury reports

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don't come out till later in the week, so a

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lot of times Bettingson's just trying to get out ahead

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of that information, and as it changes, they're not afraid

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to get offer on a game.

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Speaker 2: And it looks like that's what's happening.

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Speaker 3: Even though early Brown sharp money, you're starting to see

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that Baltimore short money come in because the public's not

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really getting involved in that game.

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Speaker 2: It's mostly being teased.

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Speaker 3: They're teasing the Ravens down to where you know they've

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got to win by one score more or less to

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cover that teaser.

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Speaker 2: That's where I'm seeing most of.

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Speaker 3: The betting action from the public on that game, and

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they're betting it over blindly over. I'm talking eight to

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nine out of every ten bets has been on the

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over in the Ravens and Browns.

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Speaker 1: Bill wants to know if you've got a teaser for today.

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Speaker 3: Teaser right now here, I would definitely tease the New

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England Patriots win or lose.

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Speaker 2: That's a plus CV side.

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Speaker 3: You're getting them up through three through six through seven,

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and you're seeing a total that open forty five and

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a half. Get that bet down the forty three and

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a half. So that's exactly what you want. You want

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a game that's expected to have low points. The lower

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the scoring, the more each point is worth. That's what

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you want for your teasers. The only problem is finding

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another leg to time into and right now I would

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have to go with Tampa on Monday Night, another perfect

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setup where the total open forty six and a half.

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Now we're looking at forty two and a half. So

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you can't get a better teaser than that like, that's

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a perfect plus CV teaser right now. Where you tie

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in New England, you tie in Tampa Bay. The only

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thing you gotta hope for is that that Houston line

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don't go to three tomorrow. That's a problem. I'm seeing

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two and a half minus one twenty. So if it

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goes to three, it's no longer a wongabut teaser, it's

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no longer advantageous. You're better off just taking the plus three.

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That's the problem. I'm not seeing any other leg you

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could really tease today, and they've done a really good

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job of protecting themselves from them teasers, because again, those

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are very advantageous.

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Speaker 2: You know you have an edge on it.

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Speaker 3: As long as you're not laying more than one twenty

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five on a six point teaser, you could print money.

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Speaker 1: Really really got me mad.

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Speaker 2: This is blocking them.

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Speaker 1: So I live in New York, and I use all

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the books like the I use all the legal books here,

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and every year I use my teasers with Draft Kicks.

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I placed my teasers with DraftKings because they've been minus

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one twenty since DraftKings came to New York. Vanduel was

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minus one thirty six and GM is minus one thirty

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DraftKings are the best number at minus one twenty this season.

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They have now moved it too minus one thirty six

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yees because particular here's why.

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Speaker 2: Let me explain to you exactly why. It's the same reason.

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Speaker 3: On the if you walk through the casino floor, on

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the floor, the black jack is now six to five,

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it's no longer three to two. That little switch of

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one rule where you no longer pay three to two,

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you're playing six to five. Most betters don't even acknowledge that,

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don't even understand that. But that change in rule made

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it to where someone like me can no longer beat

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that game. Where I could beat a game, a fair

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game of blackjack, but switching it from three to two

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to six to five, my edge is gone. In teasers

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by going to one thirty, the six point teasers no

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longer beatable.

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Speaker 2: At one twenty, you had a two percent edge.

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Speaker 3: All you had to do is tease through three, six,

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and seven, and you had a two percent edge. Your

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break even was around seventy four percent.

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Speaker 2: If you're able to do that.

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Speaker 3: You're going to hit around seventy six percent. So they

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knew you had a two percent edge. If you were

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teasing the right sides. Well, most weren't teasing the right numbers.

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So DraftKings didn't care. They had so much recreational betters

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they could keep it at one twenty and attract all

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that teaser action. Eventually, sharp betters took advantage of that,

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and that's why it's no longer avaiuable. If you're laying

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one thirty on a six point teaser, you're now taking

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the worst of it. You're hoping to beat a product

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of good luck because it's a negative eb bet. There's

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negative expectations on your bet there like, that's the math.

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That's not my opinion, that's just how the math plays out.

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Speaker 1: Teaser question, do you have to play a favorite and

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an underdog or can you place two favorites and two underdogs?

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Speaker 2: My man, you could bet two favorites, you could bet

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two underdogs. It really doesn't matter. Just don't tease totals,

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that's it.

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Speaker 1: And don't tease across zero.

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Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, yeah. Don't go through those zeros.

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Speaker 1: We don't go through those zeros. Marley saying, Hi, Yanni.

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By the way, any Steelers Seahawks advice, I.

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Speaker 3: Like the dog there, I like Seattle. Listen the Jets

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were able to score on the Steelers. The Steelers got

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you know that field going the end, they got the win.

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But at the end of the day that year, the

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Jets are able to move the ball like that on you.

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I don't think Seattle, whose offense didn't look great, is

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going to have all that many problems and defensively, defensively,

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what I saw out of Seattle last week, all those turnovers,

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fumble interceptions, and they still limited the offense of the opposition.

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I think the Steelers gonna have trouble scoring on Seattle.

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I like the Seahawks. I think that three is a gift. Yeah,

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I like Seattle there, but I'm seeing short money coming in.

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They're pushing that Steeler from three to juice.

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Speaker 2: I don't like seeing that. I would have liked to

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see that two and a half this morning. So but

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I like the Seattle side.

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Speaker 1: I like the question that the chat also had and

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I don't know where it is, but someone asked, is

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there a side that the public and the Sharks are

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disagreeing on?

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Speaker 2: H I'll tell you I don't.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I have to go Broncos Colts. I have to

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go Broncos Colts because I'm seeing a lot of one

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side of public money coming in on the Broncos. And

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again in the afternoon, there's not all that many games

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that's Broncos Broncos Broncos. I'm seeing Broncos teasers, moneyline parlays.

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Speaker 2: And sharp so on the Colt side.

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Speaker 3: So that's definitely one where it's Sharp's on one side,

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public on the other.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's one for short.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of that game, there's gonna be a lot of

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overreactions in Week two. We know the public loves to

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overreact to. Miami looked like dog crap last week. The

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Colts they looked great, even though I don't feel like

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people really believe in them. Which teams are we overreacting to,

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whether it's for better or for worse? Who should we

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not overreact to this week? Ynnie?

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Speaker 3: I think the Lions, you know, all the just tell

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how bad they look, lost the offensive coordinator, lost the

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defensive coordinator, and then on top of it, you have

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Green Bay coming out looking phenomenal.

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Speaker 2: They beat the.

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Speaker 3: Lions in Game one, they come back, they win on

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Thursday night against a Washington team. You know that coming

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off a great season. So the choice kind of like

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that forgotten team.

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Speaker 1: Right now, I win by at least ten today, I'm

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all over. Yeah there my survivor week for a lot

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of spots, I picked them in my pick on pool.

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I don't normally love to lay close to a touchdown

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the Lions matchup. I don't believe that the Bears run

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D was as good as it was last week and

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week one Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason. They aren't as good

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and dynamic and versatile as the backfield for the Lions.

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The Lions should be able to run clock run all

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over the Bears D and cover the spread.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so.

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Speaker 3: And also, like the Saints again, I don't understand why

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how you could have these players out for San Francisco

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and yet all the money is on San Francisco again.

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I know we usually overreact that players are worth more

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to the line than they truly are, but in this spot,

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it's like New Orleans was all over already a team

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Betters were looking to fade.

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Speaker 2: They lost in Week one to Arizona.

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Speaker 3: Now they're playing a San Francisco team and like they're

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fading them again. I think that's a dangerous spot right there.

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Be careful with San Francisco on the road on specially,

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and players keep players out. That's one that I keep

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see in bet and seeing the over being bet by

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the public as well. Again, but the sharps bet that under.

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They're usually going to bet the injured matchups under. They

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went hundred forty four and a half all the way

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to under forty two. That's why you're looking at forty

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one right now, and real quickly pay attention to that

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because of the look aheads. So if you're looking at

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your odds logic screen or at the very least the

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free way to talk free once and you'll click, make

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sure you look at the date of where the line opened,

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because the look aheads are from like before last week's games.

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Some of them were adoring last week's games, and those

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limits are very small, so they're able to, you know,

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take some sharp action, but the limits are low off

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those first numbers, So look at the date for Monday

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on and then see what actually was adjusted, because a

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lot of them look like big line movements, but off

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of that look ahead there's not much movement at all.

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It's just because from the look ahead to where they

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are officially opened for the week, there was a big

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gap because of the overreaction and.

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Speaker 1: Like you touched on, Nick from New York City wants

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to know what are the most public totals for the

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books that they need today.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, that's easy. It's going to be on the overs,

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that's for sure.

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Speaker 3: So start with over Jaguars, Bengals, over Giants, Cowboys.

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Speaker 2: Over Bill's Jets.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, those three are the biggest that stick out the most.

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Like it's not even close, like ninety plus percent of

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the tickets and the bets.

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Speaker 2: Are on the overs in all four of those games.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, a lot of unders in Week one. We've got

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prime time as well. So we've got one game tonight

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between the Falcons and the Vikings, and then we've got

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two Monday night games tomorrow. Any action that you see

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coming in there.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you're seeing that that Atlanta money continue to come in,

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and I'm interested to.

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Speaker 1: See if that land that scares me a little. I

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liked them.

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Speaker 2: It's down to that three now. I was surprised. I

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was surprised that they were three.

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Speaker 3: You could even get them at now plus three even money,

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because you know they got to juice to three.

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Speaker 2: I'm like, is it gonna go to three minus one? Ten?

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Speaker 3: Two and a half like there's a lot of love

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on the Atlanta side and the under there from sharp,

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but the public's betting it over. And then tomorrow on

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Monday Night it's the Chargers. Everybody's in love with the

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Chargers now after week one and playing here against Las Vegas,

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you know it's a big Monday night game for the Raiders.

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Be careful there. It's above that key number now three.

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But a lot of parlays and the teasers that are

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going to be live from Sunday are definitely going to

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be on the Chargers Monday Night. Interested to see if

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that line continues to climb as well, but I.

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Speaker 2: Haven't seen sharp money on those.

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Speaker 3: The only thing I saw was under in the Buccaneers

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Texans immediately when that line opened, and they've just continued

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to bet that one under.

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Speaker 1: That doesn't surprise me. Survivor picks for today. Who would

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you do for Survivor?

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Speaker 3: Ooh, well, obviously, and everybody's gonna look at boredom Or

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if they haven't played them, he got a.

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Speaker 2: Double digit favorite, but there's no fun in that. Ah

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would I go with?

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Speaker 4: Real quickly?

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Speaker 3: I think I would take Buffalo. I think I would

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take Buffalo, Buffalo is not losing to the Jets. I

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think it's a decent spot to take Buffalo in.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, go with Buffalo Buffalo.

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Speaker 1: I know that problem are as much of your thing

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as mine. But did the groups come in on any

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props today?

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Speaker 2: No, That's what I keep refreshing, and I'm not saying

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they will. I just haven't gotten any. I haven't gotten

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on yet.

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Speaker 1: Interesting. Is there a reason that they wait because they're

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trying to wait for the unders?

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Speaker 2: I think so. Again, it's early, still in the season.

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Speaker 1: But here's what I notice, and I know that you

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can say and maybe listen. There are some times where

359
00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:57,960
a prop will go from like I'll give an example

360
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Travis Kelcey this week was fifty three and a half,

361
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went down to forty nine and a half. At that point,

362
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I would say, like I took under fifty three and

363
00:17:04,279 --> 00:17:06,279
a half earlier this week, and I said, well, now

364
00:17:06,319 --> 00:17:08,160
it's forty nine and a half, so wait to see

365
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if it gets bet over and then you could go

366
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and take the under again. But a lot of the

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times when I'm on the right side of that number,

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it drops and doesn't bounce back. So I don't know.

369
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Sometimes about waiting long into the week for betting unders, like,

370
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you've got to bet those unders early. I've seen so

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00:17:25,319 --> 00:17:28,359
many numbers drop five ten yards throughout the span of

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a week, and you'll never get that good number back.

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Speaker 3: I always tell betters it's hard enough to beat the market.

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Don't try to play psychic on when you're gonna beat it.

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Like when you have a bet fire fire, if you're

376
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right more than your wrong long term, you're gonna get

377
00:17:45,559 --> 00:17:49,519
closing line value. Don't worry about it on individual bets.

378
00:17:49,839 --> 00:17:53,039
It's kind of like don't overreact on any individual result.

379
00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:56,440
Any one bet the same thing with closing line value.

380
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Like if the line moves against you, that's okay, as

381
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long as in the majority of time it's moving in

382
00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:03,680
your favor. You're getting better number by getting out early.

383
00:18:04,039 --> 00:18:07,160
Continue to get out early. If that's not happening to you,

384
00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:11,200
then you got to revisit the thesis. But if you're

385
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betting early and more times than not, you're getting closing

386
00:18:14,839 --> 00:18:15,480
line value.

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Speaker 2: Keep doing what you're doing. You're only going to get

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00:18:17,559 --> 00:18:19,960
more and more of it because you're doing the right thing.

389
00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:22,519
If you're not, then you got to revisit it.

390
00:18:22,839 --> 00:18:25,240
Speaker 3: But otherwise, don't worry about the time it goes against you,

391
00:18:25,279 --> 00:18:26,599
because even with me, with the.

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Speaker 2: Groups that I work with, it happens. So look at

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00:18:28,279 --> 00:18:30,039
happening with the Browns. I took.

394
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Speaker 3: We took twelve, and now I could get thirteen to day.

395
00:18:33,559 --> 00:18:35,119
So I can get a better number today than what

396
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we betted at.

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Speaker 2: That's going to happen.

398
00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:38,279
Speaker 3: But as long as you know seven out of ten

399
00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:40,440
times we're getting the best of the number, I could

400
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live with that.

401
00:18:42,319 --> 00:18:45,240
Speaker 1: Joannie, Is Miami a good team and survivor? This week?

402
00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:53,519
Speaker 2: Oh Miami? What is against the Patriots?

403
00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:53,920
Speaker 1: No?

404
00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:56,640
Speaker 3: I guess if you want to take a shot and

405
00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:59,160
roll the dice, that's too much of a poin flip game.

406
00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:00,960
I think it's too early in season to roll the

407
00:19:01,039 --> 00:19:03,039
dice like that, like in week two.

408
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:06,480
Speaker 1: To get you always not regressing to the mean. Right,

409
00:19:07,039 --> 00:19:09,480
Miami is not as bad as they looked last year.

410
00:19:09,599 --> 00:19:12,680
Speaker 2: No, no, no, But here's the pay.

411
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Speaker 3: Here's the problem that it's the NFL season and it's

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short aerial and we have those outliers. If it was baseball,

413
00:19:20,079 --> 00:19:23,759
I would say one, Miami's gonna regress or progress towards

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00:19:23,839 --> 00:19:26,960
the mean. There's enough time, But in football sometimes there's

415
00:19:27,039 --> 00:19:30,240
not enough time. We have those outliers. We're on paper

416
00:19:30,319 --> 00:19:32,720
a team so much better or worse than their record,

417
00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:35,920
but they just never have enough time to.

418
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Speaker 2: Become that team they're capable of being. In baseball, you

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have one hundred sixty two games.

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Speaker 3: That's why before the season started I could tell you

421
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maybe one team's gonna win sixty games. The first place

422
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:48,640
teams are gonna win between fifty seven and fifty nine,

423
00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:51,000
maybe fifty five and fifty nine. Why because we have

424
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a history of fifty plus years of them playing one

425
00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:55,839
hundred and sixty two games, and that's what happens. No

426
00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:58,440
one's gonna win seventy percent of their games. But in

427
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football sometimes that happened. Not enough time to progress and regress.

428
00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:07,839
There are those outliars. So be poetious with that quick turnaround,

429
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:10,759
expecting the bias that to flip back the other way.

430
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Speaker 2: But yeah, I don't play here to take Miami. I'm

431
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cheering them in. I don't have a dog in the fight.

432
00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:17,960
Speaker 1: Oh I love it. I love to hear all these

433
00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:19,920
sharp sides. And if you guys missed it, our YouTube

434
00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:22,359
page over at Wager Talking can scroll back and see

435
00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:24,759
everything Yannie just gave out. I see all your questions.

436
00:20:24,799 --> 00:20:28,000
In the chat, Yannie talked about pretty much all those games,

437
00:20:28,079 --> 00:20:30,839
so make sure to take a look there. Lastly, I

438
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:32,599
guess you said you had a lot of MLB coming in,

439
00:20:32,839 --> 00:20:35,160
So anything for the guys that want to take advantage

440
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,480
of a market that maybe is being ignored today.

441
00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, real quickly nine fifty two Pittsburgh and under eight

442
00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:42,559
and a half, nine fifty eight under eight and a

443
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half Colorado, San Diego, nine sixty under eight Yankees, Boston

444
00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:49,200
nine sixty two under eight and a half Baltimore, Toronto.

445
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Speaker 2: Multiple groups blasted that one nine.

446
00:20:51,279 --> 00:20:54,880
Speaker 3: Sixty six under eight LA and Seattle, Atlanta plus one

447
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,920
twenty five cac plus one forty five Miami plus one

448
00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:01,480
twenty five Dog Dog Dog Dog on Sundays, that time

449
00:21:01,519 --> 00:21:03,480
of the year for baseball. Whether you follow her fate,

450
00:21:03,599 --> 00:21:06,039
good luck today, join us in the steam room. Kicks

451
00:21:06,079 --> 00:21:08,400
off in about thirty minutes. We'll go through every NFL

452
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:11,160
game and you'll get those teasers about fifteen minutes for

453
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kickoff as well.

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Speaker 1: Yanny Degree, he's always over here giving us these winners.

455
00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:19,079
Thanks so much, Johnny, Thanks Cereal. Coming up now we

456
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:22,599
are joined out by our guy in Vegas again. This Sean.

457
00:21:23,319 --> 00:21:26,880
He's behind the counter. He's my very good friend, best

458
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:30,519
friend of Kelly and Vegas, co host of Kelly and Murray,

459
00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:35,359
but more importantly, the dog dad to two beautiful puppies.

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00:21:35,759 --> 00:21:38,440
John Murray joining the show. Hi, John.

461
00:21:39,799 --> 00:21:42,720
Speaker 5: Ariel, best friend of Kelly and Vegas. I don't know,

462
00:21:43,039 --> 00:21:46,000
but my best friend is my pul Mario, So come on.

463
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:48,960
Speaker 1: I that it was gonna be a raging endorsement to

464
00:21:49,039 --> 00:21:49,799
be Kelly and Vegas.

465
00:21:51,039 --> 00:21:53,240
Speaker 5: So how are you doing today? Are you ready for

466
00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:55,640
the Ravens? I know they let you down last week.

467
00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:58,960
I was disappointed in you last week. Do you remember

468
00:21:59,039 --> 00:22:03,359
this book? Needed Bill's big time? And then I slid

469
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:06,160
into your DMS after the game and said, are you

470
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:08,440
at least happy for me? And you said no, no

471
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:10,359
word answer great disupporting.

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Speaker 1: Football is a selfish sport. I don't know what you're

473
00:22:13,079 --> 00:22:16,960
talking about. I'm not a happy person. Football season makes

474
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:20,480
me more unhappy. I was miserable. It was really nice

475
00:22:20,519 --> 00:22:22,480
of you, though, you're a really great friend. Jam You

476
00:22:22,599 --> 00:22:25,160
love to just harass us when we're down, keep kicking us.

477
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:27,880
Speaker 5: No, no, that that was a big game for us.

478
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:30,119
I won't be rooting against you today. Though I will

479
00:22:30,279 --> 00:22:32,759
I will be rooting for I'm going to root for

480
00:22:32,799 --> 00:22:33,599
the Ravens today.

481
00:22:33,839 --> 00:22:34,039
Speaker 4: For you.

482
00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:37,319
Speaker 1: Wow, thank you, thank you John so much. I know

483
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:40,599
that we two is filled with overreactions, but I know

484
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:44,680
that my personal group chat loves to know the needs

485
00:22:45,079 --> 00:22:46,920
for the super book this week. What are they?

486
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:52,279
Speaker 5: Uh, definitely, I'd say early in the morning, we're gonna

487
00:22:52,319 --> 00:22:54,720
need Chicago. It looks like the biggest need of the

488
00:22:54,759 --> 00:22:58,039
morning is actually going to be Tennessee. Tennessee five and

489
00:22:58,039 --> 00:23:00,720
a half point dog right now against the Rain. I

490
00:23:00,839 --> 00:23:05,279
mentioned the Bears. We're gonna need Seattle, so Pittsburgh off

491
00:23:05,319 --> 00:23:07,519
their win against the Jets is a popular side. We'll

492
00:23:07,599 --> 00:23:12,559
need the Seahawks the afternoon. Oh boy, it looks like

493
00:23:12,599 --> 00:23:17,960
we're gonna need Carolina. It doesn't sound the Carolina at Arizona.

494
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:21,079
Think think about the NFL being on this side of

495
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:22,960
the counter. Is you gotta You're basically gonna bring for

496
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,680
the same teams every week. I think this year it's

497
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:29,000
gonna be a lot of Carolina, a lot of New Orleans,

498
00:23:30,519 --> 00:23:34,920
maybe Tennessee. Although I actually thought that cam Ward looked

499
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:37,200
pretty good last Sunday. To be honest with you, going

500
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:40,160
on the road against that Denver defense. His receivers did

501
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:43,519
him no favors. I saw him hitting his receivers right

502
00:23:43,559 --> 00:23:45,480
between the hands and them dropping the ball. So I

503
00:23:45,519 --> 00:23:47,240
don't think cam Ward's gonna be that bad, but I

504
00:23:47,319 --> 00:23:48,880
do think we're gonna need the Titans a lot.

505
00:23:49,279 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 4: We need him today.

506
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:52,480
Speaker 1: I know my group Cat's gonna love to hear that

507
00:23:52,559 --> 00:23:55,279
the Titans, the Bears, the Seahawks, and the Panthers are

508
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:57,359
gonna be the teams that they have to bet today.

509
00:23:57,759 --> 00:24:00,680
Speaker 4: Setting it was in that group chat Ariel. Who's in

510
00:24:00,799 --> 00:24:01,359
that group chat?

511
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:06,440
Speaker 1: Kelly, Kelly, this group chat one of eighty thousand, Chris Thurston.

512
00:24:07,079 --> 00:24:07,640
Speaker 4: I love Chris.

513
00:24:08,759 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 1: Joe.

514
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:11,039
Speaker 4: Okay, I know who that is.

515
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:15,519
Speaker 1: Yeah, Joe, I think that's it. Everyone else kind of

516
00:24:15,559 --> 00:24:18,880
has been eliminated from our lives, the chat figure.

517
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:22,400
Speaker 4: But every year it seems like everybody else is off

518
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:22,799
the hook.

519
00:24:25,599 --> 00:24:27,920
Speaker 1: That's good totals, any totals.

520
00:24:29,279 --> 00:24:29,880
Speaker 4: Let me see.

521
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:33,160
Speaker 5: I'm sure we'll probably need the under in the Yeah,

522
00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:35,680
we do. We need the under in the Philadelphia Kansas

523
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,640
City game. Obviously, that's the big game in the afternoon.

524
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:42,799
Looks like we'll want under in your game. Want the

525
00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:47,680
under end Baltimore Baltimore Cleveland game, and the under in

526
00:24:47,759 --> 00:24:49,680
the Buffalo game Buffalo and the New York Jets.

527
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:51,039
Speaker 4: We got some money on the over in that one

528
00:24:51,079 --> 00:24:53,559
as well. We'll be rooting for. Oh here's one.

529
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:56,160
Speaker 5: We actually need the over. You're ready for this, We

530
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:59,559
need the over. San Francisco New Orleans. That game is

531
00:24:59,599 --> 00:25:01,359
all the way out of forty nine ers minus three.

532
00:25:01,759 --> 00:25:04,279
Three nine ers obviously have some key injuries on offense.

533
00:25:05,039 --> 00:25:09,079
I mentioned the Saints Spencer Rattler is their quarterback for

534
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:12,559
whatever reason, and we will be needing them to go over.

535
00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:14,880
Speaker 4: Total right now is forty and a half.

536
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:17,880
Speaker 1: That actually makes a lot of sense that that game

537
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:21,720
needs to How did the books in Week one? Overall

538
00:25:21,839 --> 00:25:22,960
jam So.

539
00:25:23,039 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 5: We had a great morning We did great in the

540
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:28,000
morning games, and then we lost every afternoon game last week.

541
00:25:28,039 --> 00:25:30,079
It was it reminded me a lot of like every

542
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:33,079
weekend last NFL season where the afternoon games really bad

543
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:33,359
for us.

544
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:36,440
Speaker 4: We really needed Houston against the Rams. That was a

545
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:37,519
really bad game for us.

546
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:39,599
Speaker 5: We lost the forty nine er game, we lost the

547
00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:42,400
Packer game, and then all the moneyline parlays and teasers

548
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:45,039
went to Denver and they won. So we lost every

549
00:25:45,079 --> 00:25:47,880
game in the afternoon luckily. And I'm not saying this,

550
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:51,519
I'm not saying this to rub it in, but Buffalo

551
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:55,039
winning did bail us out. Buffalo beating Baltimore did bail

552
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:59,920
us out. I will never understand why John Harball punt

553
00:26:00,079 --> 00:26:02,640
it on fourth and three. I I I talked about

554
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:05,720
this with Kelly. I think I think one of the

555
00:26:05,759 --> 00:26:07,559
biggest things that doesn't get talked about enough in the

556
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:10,319
NFL is it's not black and white, like, oh, should

557
00:26:10,319 --> 00:26:11,519
you go forward on fourth and three?

558
00:26:12,079 --> 00:26:15,079
Speaker 4: It's who's your quarterback? Who's the other team's quarterback.

559
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 5: If your quarterback is Lamar Jackson and the other team's

560
00:26:18,039 --> 00:26:20,480
quarterback is Josh Allen, yeah you need to go forward

561
00:26:20,519 --> 00:26:21,200
on fourth and three.

562
00:26:21,599 --> 00:26:24,880
Speaker 4: You don't mind, Yeah you don't.

563
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:27,640
Speaker 5: Well, you don't punt the ball back to Josh Allen. Okay,

564
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:30,000
you're just you're just saying we're gonna lose. If the

565
00:26:30,039 --> 00:26:33,480
other team's quarterback was Russell Wilson, well then maybe you

566
00:26:33,519 --> 00:26:35,920
would punt the ball back, right. So I think I

567
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,039
think that that doesn't get talked about enough when people

568
00:26:38,079 --> 00:26:39,880
are evaluating those fourth down situations.

569
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:42,880
Speaker 4: But I thought Baltimore made a huge mistake and it

570
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:43,680
was very good for us.

571
00:26:43,799 --> 00:26:48,039
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, hey, listen, I'm gonna overreact and say the

572
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:54,039
Ravens are dead to me until further notice. Week two. Though,

573
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:56,480
where have you seen the public overreact?

574
00:26:58,799 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 5: Let's see the public. I mean, the public is very

575
00:27:01,279 --> 00:27:04,480
heavily on the Rams. I mentioned that game, and then

576
00:27:05,039 --> 00:27:07,039
there's been a there's a lot of money actually on

577
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:09,519
New England this week, so New England is a very

578
00:27:09,559 --> 00:27:12,920
popular side. New England did lose last week to the Raiders,

579
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:17,319
but they at least looked like a competent operation, unlike

580
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:19,799
their opponents today, the Miami Dolphins, who well, that's.

581
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:21,759
Speaker 1: Where I think people could be overreacting. Though that I

582
00:27:21,799 --> 00:27:25,119
don't think Miami gets as bad as they looked last week.

583
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:29,279
Speaker 5: I usually expect Miami to be a decent team until

584
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:31,680
two Tongue of Iola gets injured, which he will right

585
00:27:31,759 --> 00:27:34,319
and then and then after that the wheels will come

586
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:37,359
off for that organization. But as long as two is

587
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:40,440
in there, I don't expect them to be to be terrible.

588
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:41,680
Speaker 4: I don't think so.

589
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:45,839
Speaker 5: The other team that's really the most heavily beat team

590
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:49,440
of the day is absolutely the Dallas Cowboys. We don't

591
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:52,000
have as much money on that game. It's more tickets,

592
00:27:52,519 --> 00:27:54,319
but so it's not as big of a need as

593
00:27:54,319 --> 00:27:55,960
some of the other ones I mentioned. But if you

594
00:27:56,039 --> 00:27:59,319
just want to look at ticket counts, Dallas minus the

595
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:03,400
points Dallas money line is in every parlay under the sun. Today,

596
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:07,079
I just made a Russell Wilson joke, So apparently I

597
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:10,519
agree with the public on that. Russell Wilson looked horrible

598
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:14,880
last week against the Commanders, the football team. I don't

599
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:17,920
blame people for wanting to go with Dallas. Dallas probably

600
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:20,839
should have beat the Eagles in Week one. They get

601
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:21,599
the Giants today.

602
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:26,559
Speaker 1: We'll see those Giants anything in the futures market stand

603
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:28,000
out after week one.

604
00:28:29,519 --> 00:28:31,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, you know they're starting to bet. They're starting to

605
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:34,279
bet on green Bay, which I get.

606
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:39,079
Speaker 4: You know, green Bay look I like Detroit. Last week.

607
00:28:39,119 --> 00:28:40,519
Speaker 5: I think we talked about that when I was on

608
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:42,480
your show, and we had a lot of guys I

609
00:28:42,599 --> 00:28:45,400
respect on Detroit. That line actually closed green Bay minus

610
00:28:45,519 --> 00:28:48,519
one and that was clearly the wrong side. Green Bay

611
00:28:49,359 --> 00:28:52,640
handled Detroit. And then we saw some players we respected

612
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:55,160
on Washington on Thursday thinking maybe green.

613
00:28:55,039 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 4: Bay maybe they're not that good. Well, they are that good.

614
00:28:57,480 --> 00:29:00,799
Especially on defense green Bay. I don't know what.

615
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 5: There's nothing you can say that isn't positive about them

616
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,359
right now, as long as they can keep Jordan Love healthy.

617
00:29:06,079 --> 00:29:08,759
Michael Parsons is just getting his legs underneath him. He's

618
00:29:08,799 --> 00:29:10,039
not even at full speed yet.

619
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:11,039
Speaker 4: Once he can.

620
00:29:11,279 --> 00:29:13,359
Speaker 1: The only nice thing I could say about green Bay

621
00:29:13,559 --> 00:29:14,920
is that everybody's on green Bay.

622
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:19,359
Speaker 5: Yeah, but that's true. But they were on Thursday, and

623
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:21,519
you know, we did not do well on the game Thursday.

624
00:29:21,599 --> 00:29:24,079
Every the public beg green Bay for sure in that game,

625
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:25,519
and they won it easily.

626
00:29:25,839 --> 00:29:27,319
Speaker 4: So what can you say?

627
00:29:27,759 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 1: The public isn't always wrong the pup, Well.

628
00:29:30,319 --> 00:29:34,519
Speaker 5: Hey, look we the public was all over Terrence Bud

629
00:29:34,599 --> 00:29:37,720
Crawford last night here at Allegiance Stadium, and he won

630
00:29:38,079 --> 00:29:40,240
very decisively, very impressive.

631
00:29:40,359 --> 00:29:45,319
Speaker 4: The public nailed that. So definitely not always wrong. Definitely not.

632
00:29:47,559 --> 00:29:50,359
Speaker 1: John Murray coming over to see us from the West gate.

633
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:52,240
I've got my pup. You want to say hi to John?

634
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:53,680
You want to say hi to John?

635
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:55,559
Speaker 4: I do want to John.

636
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 2: J wants to say hi to you.

637
00:29:58,079 --> 00:30:00,279
Speaker 1: She really is mad that we're just sitting here and

638
00:30:00,559 --> 00:30:03,880
not outside playing in this beautiful weather. I guess the

639
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:07,920
final question primetime games. Two games tomorrow, one game tonight.

640
00:30:08,279 --> 00:30:09,200
What do you see in primetime?

641
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 5: Well, there's a lot of action on the two games

642
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:15,599
tomorrow night. And kudos to the NFL. They're finally giving

643
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:17,880
us a true doubleheader. You know, last year they did

644
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:19,480
a lot of those where they had the two Monday

645
00:30:19,519 --> 00:30:21,960
night games spaced out by an hour. I found that

646
00:30:22,039 --> 00:30:24,640
a little annoying. This week we get an actual doubleheader.

647
00:30:25,079 --> 00:30:29,160
Sharp money on Houston against Tampa Bay and then sharp

648
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:31,960
money on the Chargers. Push that number from three to

649
00:30:32,039 --> 00:30:35,079
three and a half at the Raiders. Speaking of teams

650
00:30:35,119 --> 00:30:37,440
that look great in Week one, how about the Chargers

651
00:30:37,519 --> 00:30:41,079
and Justin Herbert. They looked awesome last Friday night they

652
00:30:41,119 --> 00:30:44,640
beat Kansas City in South Paolo, Brazil. They looked really good.

653
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,039
You know, I love Jim Harbaugh, so keep an eye

654
00:30:47,119 --> 00:30:49,960
on the Chargers. They I think the Raiders will end

655
00:30:50,039 --> 00:30:52,200
up being a big need for the books because there

656
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:55,240
will be parlays all day to day going into the

657
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:57,519
Chargers tomorrow night in the late game.

658
00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:00,759
Speaker 4: We'll probably need the Raiders in that one.

659
00:31:01,119 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 1: We've got a w n B. A question, but your

660
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:04,599
feedback in the.

661
00:31:04,599 --> 00:31:10,559
Speaker 5: Playoffs, let me see, I mean repeat the question I'll

662
00:31:10,599 --> 00:31:13,119
attempt to answer it was w NBA.

663
00:31:13,759 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 1: Any advice when the playoffs start?

664
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:18,720
Speaker 4: Oh boy, let's see.

665
00:31:18,759 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 1: Well.

666
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:21,119
Speaker 4: Luckily for me, I do work at a sports book,

667
00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:23,000
so I can look to see what the smart people

668
00:31:23,079 --> 00:31:23,359
bet on.

669
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 5: Because I don't know much about the w NBA. I

670
00:31:25,279 --> 00:31:28,720
apologize for that, but certainly some smart money on. It

671
00:31:28,839 --> 00:31:33,640
looks like the Storm. Oh against the Aces. That's unfortunate.

672
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:37,119
The Storm tonight against the Aces in Game one. They

673
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:40,480
bet them down from plus seven to plus five and

674
00:31:40,519 --> 00:31:43,599
a half. They also bet the over in that game.

675
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:46,279
Speaker 4: So the Storm and the Over. Game one is tonight

676
00:31:46,839 --> 00:31:47,640
in Las Vegas.

677
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,519
Speaker 5: There's a big sporting sporting event in Las Vegas every day,

678
00:31:50,759 --> 00:31:54,440
Ariel every and wait till we get major League Baseball

679
00:31:54,559 --> 00:31:55,359
in a couple of years.

680
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:57,720
Speaker 1: I can't wait. I will be there. I want to

681
00:31:57,759 --> 00:31:59,640
go and make sure that we go to a real

682
00:32:00,279 --> 00:32:04,359
ball game together. JM Live from Las Vegas. Thanks for

683
00:32:04,519 --> 00:32:06,680
hopping on with us as you do every Sunday, giving

684
00:32:06,759 --> 00:32:09,440
us the needs of the day. Appreciate you and not

685
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:11,160
good luck. No good luck today.

686
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 4: Oh that's nice, that's very nice. I'll still talk to

687
00:32:14,759 --> 00:32:15,640
you next week anyway.

688
00:32:15,839 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 1: I appreciate that thanks Sean Murray, have a good one.

689
00:32:19,759 --> 00:32:21,759
And if you guys don't know about it, the odds

690
00:32:21,839 --> 00:32:23,799
Logic screen, you could go to odds Logic dot com

691
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:27,960
slash prop queen and you heard Yanni mention it. It

692
00:32:28,039 --> 00:32:30,640
shows you literally all the odds on the board. It

693
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:34,079
tells you how lines opened, how they're closing, how they moved,

694
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:37,200
and every sports book, et cetera. So odds Logic dot

695
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:40,880
Com slash prop Queen someone who knows about odd logic

696
00:32:41,039 --> 00:32:43,759
very well. Our good friend carl and Bianco joining the show.

697
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:46,640
Now he's not in Vegas, he's in Canada.

698
00:32:46,759 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 6: What what's up, carm Not much, I can't but John

699
00:32:50,759 --> 00:32:53,680
Murray used his luck today on Liverpool. I got a

700
00:32:53,799 --> 00:32:56,920
ninety third minute penalty kicked, so he should be happy

701
00:32:58,119 --> 00:33:01,599
even if the book takes a hit today. But everything's good.

702
00:33:02,839 --> 00:33:05,799
Weather's still good up here, no snow arail, don't worry,

703
00:33:06,079 --> 00:33:08,799
and our Blue Jays are still a top of the

704
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:10,519
Al East.

705
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 4: But we won't go there.

706
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 6: It's football Sunday.

707
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:15,880
Speaker 1: It's football Sunday. We can talk about the Al East

708
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:19,920
and that craziness this coming week. But caarm I don't

709
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:21,359
really get to talk much on a bell with you.

710
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:25,119
Usually it's hockey, it's baseball, it's soccer, and a bell

711
00:33:25,559 --> 00:33:26,000
what do you like?

712
00:33:26,079 --> 00:33:30,839
Speaker 6: Today, We're gonna talk like some overreactions. So I'm gonna

713
00:33:30,839 --> 00:33:32,920
go through some games. I think the two that really

714
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:35,240
stand out to me, well, I have a five percent

715
00:33:35,279 --> 00:33:37,039
play up at wager Talk, so I'm not going to.

716
00:33:37,039 --> 00:33:38,599
Speaker 4: Discuss that game.

717
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:41,720
Speaker 6: We can get it over on my page. But one

718
00:33:41,799 --> 00:33:44,400
of my client plays today is Denver. You know, we

719
00:33:44,519 --> 00:33:48,200
talk about like overreaction. You know, Indya had a very

720
00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:50,880
good game against Miami, but Miami. I thought Miami just

721
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:54,799
looked terrible out of the gate. You know, I feel

722
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:59,279
like this line should probably be around Denver two two

723
00:33:59,319 --> 00:34:01,599
and a half. I'm seeing like a lot of ones

724
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:04,599
and one and a half's on the wager Talk Live odds.

725
00:34:04,599 --> 00:34:06,519
It's never gonna hit three. It's never going to hit

726
00:34:06,559 --> 00:34:09,239
that key number. But you know, Denver supposed to have

727
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:11,280
a good season. They have a very good defense. They

728
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:15,039
didn't play did did did? They didn't seem to be

729
00:34:15,159 --> 00:34:18,920
ready to play in Week one against cam Ward on

730
00:34:19,079 --> 00:34:20,960
the road in his first start as a rookie. But

731
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:23,840
they got the win and that's all that ultimately matters.

732
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:27,559
They don't care about covering point spreads. They care about w's.

733
00:34:29,119 --> 00:34:31,880
I think they win here and uh and I think

734
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:35,639
they cover this spread easily. At least they went by

735
00:34:35,679 --> 00:34:38,559
three points, which is more than enough. Houston definitely on

736
00:34:38,679 --> 00:34:41,159
Monday Night. I absolutely love that one. That's going to

737
00:34:41,199 --> 00:34:43,920
be on my card as well too. I just haven't

738
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:45,360
loaded it yet. At two and a half. When we

739
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:48,320
talk about like overreactions, I'm seeing a lot of money

740
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:51,599
coming in on Miami. Miami is like up to two

741
00:34:51,639 --> 00:34:54,119
and a half right now, and I still don't get

742
00:34:54,199 --> 00:34:58,800
it with the Dolphins. I think once they get rid

743
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:00,880
of there, once they were get rid of their coach,

744
00:35:01,519 --> 00:35:03,000
we may see a change in this team. But I

745
00:35:03,159 --> 00:35:06,199
just don't get how the Miami Dolphins year in and

746
00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:09,000
year out look like a team that has potential to

747
00:35:09,079 --> 00:35:13,159
win the AFC East and then just falters and finishes eight, eight,

748
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:17,159
nine and eight. Cleveland Baltimore, You're not gonna like this one,

749
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:20,920
are But I think Cleveland stays within the number on

750
00:35:21,039 --> 00:35:23,199
this one. It is at a point now where it's

751
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:28,079
at twelve, and there's always that backdoor if Baltimore was

752
00:35:28,159 --> 00:35:29,920
to blow them up. But Cleveland's front four is a

753
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:33,679
very good front four, and if they can somehow stop

754
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:36,639
Derrick Henry, which is it seems like impossible to do,

755
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:40,199
and slow down Lamar, they got a chance to stay

756
00:35:40,199 --> 00:35:43,079
inside this number. Flacco doesn't make a lot of mistakes,

757
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:46,400
the team can run, So we'll see what happens here

758
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:49,519
between those two. I think they can stay within that number.

759
00:35:49,639 --> 00:35:53,639
Everyone is on Baltimore in a survivor and I absolutely

760
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:57,000
understand that. In circa I think there's six thousand plus

761
00:35:57,199 --> 00:36:01,840
on the Ravens as the most picked team San Francisco.

762
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:05,840
I don't get ariol, I don't get the I understand

763
00:36:06,039 --> 00:36:09,360
the line drop. I do, but this is still a

764
00:36:09,679 --> 00:36:13,760
very bad New Orleans Saints team. And if you have

765
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:16,840
to give me Mac Jones versus Rattler, I'm going to

766
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:20,320
take Mac Jones on this team. This team still has

767
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:24,440
CMC persl Juwan Jenny is supposed to be a game

768
00:36:24,519 --> 00:36:28,039
time decision, and they still have that defense. While they

769
00:36:28,079 --> 00:36:30,920
have some rookies on that D, they still have a defense.

770
00:36:31,559 --> 00:36:34,800
And sometimes defense will win you games and put your

771
00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:36,840
team in a position to win games. It's at three

772
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:39,880
now embedible at five and a half. I don't think

773
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:42,280
it was betable at three. I would take San Francisco

774
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:47,119
even with the injuries. What else Casey a little bit

775
00:36:47,119 --> 00:36:49,559
of overreaction, I think on that one. I get at

776
00:36:49,559 --> 00:36:53,840
Philadelphia absolutely smoked them in the super Bowl last season.

777
00:36:53,920 --> 00:37:01,119
But case Casey is still Casey and at home. This

778
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:04,599
is in Casey, I believe. Is it not at home?

779
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:08,440
Casey mahomes as a dog. We've talked about it before.

780
00:37:09,119 --> 00:37:13,360
Not a good situation to bet against them. Regular season

781
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:17,400
and playoffs are two different beasts. Just asked the Buffalo

782
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:22,239
Bills who continuously beat the Kansas City Chiefs in sorry

783
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:26,199
in regular season and then get eliminated in the playoffs.

784
00:37:27,199 --> 00:37:29,519
Two different ones there. And then the final one I

785
00:37:29,559 --> 00:37:31,599
think is Minnesota off a short week. I kind of

786
00:37:31,639 --> 00:37:34,440
like Atlanta getting the hook at the three and a

787
00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:36,440
half tonight in that late one.

788
00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:40,519
Speaker 1: I'm going through like the entire card today. I wasn't

789
00:37:40,599 --> 00:37:42,159
expecting that last.

790
00:37:43,159 --> 00:37:43,199
Speaker 3: No.

791
00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:46,840
Speaker 1: I love it because John Murray just came on and

792
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:50,679
he told us Tennessee, Chicago, Seattle, Carolina are the four

793
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:53,519
sides that they probably need the most today. And I

794
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:55,679
am not surprised because I feel like a lot of

795
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:58,519
people I've heard of are on Arizona. I get it.

796
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,480
And I really like James Honor today in his rushing

797
00:38:01,519 --> 00:38:04,119
year of prophet with Carolina, d is terrible against the run.

798
00:38:05,559 --> 00:38:08,800
But I have a friend who works in Carolina and

799
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:11,280
he loves the Panthers today. So I feel like there's

800
00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:14,280
just like a lot of pros versus jows today.

801
00:38:15,079 --> 00:38:16,920
Speaker 6: Shouldn't he like Carolina though?

802
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:19,559
Speaker 1: If he, if he lives now, he works in the media,

803
00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:22,159
he's non biased, so.

804
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:26,199
Speaker 6: He's non biased. Okay, Well, I get it. I always

805
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:28,519
put my bias aside when I'm talking about the Buffalo

806
00:38:28,639 --> 00:38:32,000
Bills as well too, because you can sort of let

807
00:38:32,079 --> 00:38:37,800
that your mind. And no, I hardly ever bet on

808
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:42,519
the Bills it normally because number one, the spreads are

809
00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:44,920
just even though they're a good cover team and they

810
00:38:44,960 --> 00:38:47,760
were last year, the spreads are normally just high. You

811
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:50,119
look at the Bills today and we didn't discuss the

812
00:38:50,159 --> 00:38:53,639
Bills and a lot of money. Everyone loves the Jets.

813
00:38:54,679 --> 00:38:58,199
I know Joe Ranieri loves the Jets today. Everyone seems

814
00:38:58,239 --> 00:38:59,079
to love the Jets.

815
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:02,880
Speaker 1: Spot for the Bills Ravens last week. They're on a

816
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:06,039
short week next week going to my facing Miami, so

817
00:39:06,159 --> 00:39:08,519
I understand I had not I wanted nothing to do

818
00:39:08,599 --> 00:39:09,119
with the Bills.

819
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:11,920
Speaker 6: Yeah, and uh, you know, and you look at some

820
00:39:11,960 --> 00:39:15,760
of the injuries. Obviously at Oliver missing is a big

821
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:17,440
miss for them, but you look at some of the

822
00:39:17,519 --> 00:39:22,280
injuries during the week, uh, with regards like the even

823
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:26,119
like even their running back he tweaked his handstring on Wednesday.

824
00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:29,039
He wasn't a full participant on Thursday. I think he

825
00:39:29,159 --> 00:39:32,280
did practice on Friday. So we'll see what we we

826
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:36,199
get from him. Uh Keon Keon Coleman as well too.

827
00:39:36,239 --> 00:39:38,840
And then there's that guy who you just don't want

828
00:39:38,880 --> 00:39:42,320
to throw at, which is uh sauce Gardner. You know,

829
00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:45,280
you just don't want to go against them and the

830
00:39:45,679 --> 00:39:49,440
and if you look at historically over the last few

831
00:39:49,519 --> 00:39:54,360
years with with Josh Allen, uh, he doesn't go after

832
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:56,880
sauce Gardner. He's kind of after him a couple of times.

833
00:39:56,920 --> 00:39:59,719
He doesn't go after him. So it's who else on

834
00:39:59,800 --> 00:40:03,440
the Bills steps up. We'll see what Shakira does as

835
00:40:03,519 --> 00:40:07,280
well too. But I understand the live movement. I think

836
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:11,480
seven coming out opening at seven was probably not a

837
00:40:11,559 --> 00:40:13,079
great thing because it was always going to bring in

838
00:40:13,199 --> 00:40:15,719
Jets money and it's down to like five five and

839
00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:16,719
a half I think six.

840
00:40:17,199 --> 00:40:17,360
Speaker 1: You know.

841
00:40:17,440 --> 00:40:19,719
Speaker 6: The interesting thing is, you know people talk about teasers,

842
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:23,599
and well, I do enjoy playing teasers. You look at

843
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:26,760
the three most popular teams with like a six and

844
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:28,760
a half point teaser, and this was as of like

845
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:31,599
last night. You could have taken the Bills, Zona, and

846
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:35,000
Detroit and essentially made all three games a pick them

847
00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:39,079
and those three teams would pay you back at plus

848
00:40:39,199 --> 00:40:41,039
one thirty on a six and a half point teaser.

849
00:40:41,639 --> 00:40:43,760
If you take the same three teams on the money line,

850
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:46,440
it pays one forty. And this is why when you're

851
00:40:46,440 --> 00:40:48,800
playing teasers, it's important to keep an eye on the

852
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:51,519
money lines of these teams and see is it better

853
00:40:51,599 --> 00:40:53,239
to play a money line ticket than it is to

854
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:56,239
play a teaser, because you're you're giving up some value

855
00:40:56,320 --> 00:40:58,239
by not taking the plus one forty on the money

856
00:40:58,320 --> 00:41:01,239
line parlay as a post to taking a teaser.

857
00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, we were just talking about this before, especially

858
00:41:05,079 --> 00:41:07,239
with all these books now charging you minus one thirty

859
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:11,840
five for a teaser, a two legg teaser just absolutely ridiculous.

860
00:41:12,079 --> 00:41:16,079
And by the way, Jimmy Burke thirteen terrible against the run.

861
00:41:16,079 --> 00:41:18,760
They played one game. Look at the Panthers last year, honey.

862
00:41:19,119 --> 00:41:22,079
They have been terrible against the run for the last

863
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:24,400
year and a half. They were the worst rundee in

864
00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:27,280
football last year and it didn't change after they allowed

865
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:29,679
Traves YTN to put up one forty three. So come on,

866
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:34,559
let's it's not just week one, like not just week one. Sorry.

867
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:36,719
I had to get that out there, Carl. What are

868
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:37,440
you promoting today?

869
00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:41,679
Speaker 6: Uh? Three plays up? I gave you guys one of them,

870
00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:45,320
which is the Denver Broncos, but a five percent play

871
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:49,280
since the start of the twenty twenty two NFL season,

872
00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:52,639
which dates back three years now when releasing four and

873
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:55,719
five percent plays, and all my plays this week are

874
00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:58,480
four and five percent plays plus one hundred and thirty

875
00:41:58,679 --> 00:42:03,239
units wager Talk, which is number one amongst everyone at

876
00:42:03,320 --> 00:42:07,000
wager Talk with NFL. And we're coming off at three

877
00:42:07,159 --> 00:42:10,280
O day in college football yesterday as well too. I

878
00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:14,360
got what aria. I got the closing line value yesterday

879
00:42:14,519 --> 00:42:17,000
on I released it early in the week because I

880
00:42:17,039 --> 00:42:20,920
figured the line would drop on Arkansas they were plus seven.

881
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:26,239
Once Old Miss announced their their QB was out, that

882
00:42:26,400 --> 00:42:29,719
line did drop. It dropped to about four by game time,

883
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:31,840
and I got the cover so I'm pretty happy about

884
00:42:31,880 --> 00:42:34,880
that with Arkansas and everyone who jumped on board. But

885
00:42:35,199 --> 00:42:39,079
the Weekend Warrior package is still up. Forty nine dollars

886
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:41,360
will get you all of today's plays and all of

887
00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:45,800
tomorrow's plays in NFL Football as well too, So that

888
00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:49,920
that is it for now, no other plays up. It's

889
00:42:49,960 --> 00:42:52,920
been a great weekend five and one yesterday, and we're

890
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:55,519
just going to try and keep it going through Sunday

891
00:42:55,599 --> 00:42:58,320
and Monday, and we're going to be sweating the games

892
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:02,760
live today. If you guys haven't seen it or if

893
00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:06,400
you didn't watch it last week End Zone Live, which

894
00:43:06,440 --> 00:43:09,199
will be on I think around one thirty today. I

895
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:12,079
could be wrong on the time, but End Zone Live today,

896
00:43:13,039 --> 00:43:16,719
the pres there's a bunch of people coming on the show.

897
00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:19,000
There's about four or five and we just sweat the games.

898
00:43:19,039 --> 00:43:22,079
We let you know what our bets are, and it

899
00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:26,079
is like five guys at a bar just talking trash

900
00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:29,159
to each other and trying to win bets because sometimes

901
00:43:29,199 --> 00:43:32,440
we're on opposite sides, so talking trash is great.

902
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:35,719
Speaker 1: We love talking trash. Carm You're the best, Thanks so

903
00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:38,679
much for coming on. Good luck today you as well.

904
00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:41,880
Thank you, Cody Holloway, I don't know what Fandele you're at.

905
00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:44,760
My Fandel charges minus one thirty minus one thirty five

906
00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:47,239
on teasers, so I don't know if it's a state

907
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:49,559
by state thing, but here in New York Fandel is

908
00:43:49,679 --> 00:43:52,400
not charging minus one ten. In fact, I haven't seen

909
00:43:53,159 --> 00:43:55,719
one book charge of minus one ten on a teaser,

910
00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:57,960
a two leg teaser. I have not seen a minus

911
00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:01,280
one ten anywhere on any of the public sports books

912
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:05,440
or the the sports books over here, So I don't

913
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:08,280
know where you're getting that. But okay, last, but certainly

914
00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:10,599
not least, as we mentioned before, with carm end Zone

915
00:44:10,639 --> 00:44:13,280
Live coming up at one pm Eastern time, and all

916
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:16,000
of your favorite waistertalk handicappers will be on there sweating

917
00:44:16,039 --> 00:44:18,159
out their bets. Indy and Prez are going to be

918
00:44:18,239 --> 00:44:20,920
on there, so Prez joining the show. How did week

919
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:22,840
one go at that end Zone Live betting show?

920
00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:25,239
Speaker 2: Well, I don't know.

921
00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:28,480
Speaker 7: Actually I just did all the talking. Everyone who wants

922
00:44:28,519 --> 00:44:28,880
how you do?

923
00:44:30,559 --> 00:44:30,800
Speaker 4: I did?

924
00:44:30,880 --> 00:44:33,360
Speaker 7: Okay, I want with my clients. The show was fun.

925
00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:37,280
I had a blast, but it's a long show and

926
00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:42,400
you know it's still you got sunshine outside. Normally I

927
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:45,280
would have watched the game at my pool. I have

928
00:44:45,480 --> 00:44:47,719
like a bank of TVs. I like sit in the

929
00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:51,320
hot tub. But Alas, I gotta work, and I'm okay

930
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:54,400
with that. I offered my services.

931
00:44:54,719 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 1: We love to work. Pres What do you like today?

932
00:44:58,159 --> 00:45:03,079
Speaker 7: What do I like today? God, I'll tell you. I'll

933
00:45:03,119 --> 00:45:04,920
go down the cart at one hundred miles an hour.

934
00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:07,400
But I do want to say one thing, earthly, Ariel,

935
00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:12,159
you mentioned rough spot for the Bills with Baltimore back

936
00:45:12,639 --> 00:45:16,519
behind us and Miami in front. Why is it not

937
00:45:16,639 --> 00:45:19,000
a rough spot for the New York Jets circling a

938
00:45:19,079 --> 00:45:22,320
game against Aaron Rodgers, waiting all year to play it,

939
00:45:22,519 --> 00:45:24,719
then screwing it up at the end, having to go

940
00:45:24,960 --> 00:45:27,800
in to the dressing room in a bad mood, having

941
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:30,000
to say no to their wives that night because they

942
00:45:30,039 --> 00:45:33,599
are very upset, then having to go to Monday and

943
00:45:33,679 --> 00:45:38,039
being lectured and reamed out all the way through the week,

944
00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:41,880
feeling down about themselves, feeling upset about themselves.

945
00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:44,719
Speaker 1: The only reason it's not is because the Bills are

946
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:49,320
on a short week going into Thursday. Oh the only difference.

947
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:52,880
Speaker 7: I accept what you're saying, and that's what kept me

948
00:45:53,119 --> 00:45:54,599
off of the Bills today.

949
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:58,360
Speaker 1: But yeah, I don't no interest in the Bills today,

950
00:45:58,400 --> 00:45:59,920
but I agree with you that the Jets are not

951
00:46:00,079 --> 00:46:02,440
in any better of a position. Yes, except they are

952
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:06,239
the home team and they are not a short week.

953
00:46:06,480 --> 00:46:08,639
But I have no interest in the game because if

954
00:46:08,719 --> 00:46:11,239
you think I want to be that miserable that the

955
00:46:11,360 --> 00:46:13,880
Jets this week, the answer is now, Okay.

956
00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:16,920
Speaker 2: I like Miami. You guys were talking about it earlier.

957
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:19,119
Speaker 7: John Murray said a lot of money coming in on

958
00:46:19,199 --> 00:46:22,400
New England, which is very interesting given that Miami is

959
00:46:22,480 --> 00:46:25,519
now minus two and a half. We've done a deep

960
00:46:25,639 --> 00:46:29,119
dive into this, and if you can get an NFL

961
00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:31,800
team under minus two, you're better off taking it on

962
00:46:31,880 --> 00:46:32,599
the money line.

963
00:46:32,920 --> 00:46:35,199
Speaker 2: That does not work at two and a half.

964
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:37,880
Speaker 7: At minus two and a half, you're better off in

965
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:41,800
the long run taking laying the points. But I like

966
00:46:41,960 --> 00:46:44,760
Miami here, and I look at it this way. This

967
00:46:45,000 --> 00:46:50,280
is their season, This might be Mike McDaniel's coaching career.

968
00:46:51,079 --> 00:46:56,119
That last week was so bad, so humiliating, so wrong

969
00:46:56,480 --> 00:47:00,199
in every way that if they can't fix it immediately, Lee,

970
00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:04,280
I don't think they continue. So I think Miami has

971
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:06,639
to give us the best game they can all year,

972
00:47:07,159 --> 00:47:09,480
and they are at home and it's a short price.

973
00:47:09,880 --> 00:47:13,000
And I also like the Pittsburgh Steelers. I'm an emotional

974
00:47:14,119 --> 00:47:16,840
as a handicapper. I look at the emotions of teams,

975
00:47:16,920 --> 00:47:20,039
and this Pittsburgh team has to be coming into this

976
00:47:20,159 --> 00:47:25,280
game feeling really high on themselves. Look, they won last

977
00:47:25,320 --> 00:47:28,400
week miraculous fashion. They're one and oh they're in a

978
00:47:28,480 --> 00:47:32,239
tough division. They have a game that is easily winnable.

979
00:47:34,199 --> 00:47:37,199
And I think Seattle is a shallow themselves. I'm not

980
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:40,119
a fan of Sam Darnold at all. So there's two bets.

981
00:47:40,480 --> 00:47:43,800
I like Pittsburgh and I like Miami, and both of

982
00:47:43,920 --> 00:47:48,159
those two are in my circa bets. Also, real quick, Aeriel.

983
00:47:48,679 --> 00:47:53,800
The show starts at one pm. The live show that

984
00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:58,559
we're doing starts at one pm today, and yeah, it's

985
00:47:58,599 --> 00:47:59,119
a blast.

986
00:47:59,239 --> 00:48:02,320
Speaker 2: Last week we have had an absolute blast.

987
00:48:03,519 --> 00:48:05,880
Speaker 1: Everyone gets to tune in at one pm Eastern time

988
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:08,360
to watch end Zone Live betting show. You could see

989
00:48:08,559 --> 00:48:11,400
Prize sweating out all those bets he gave before I

990
00:48:11,440 --> 00:48:12,599
let you go. I know you got to get ready

991
00:48:12,599 --> 00:48:14,320
for the show. Survivor plays today.

992
00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:18,119
Speaker 7: Yeah, so I took Arizona and my Survivor play and

993
00:48:18,760 --> 00:48:24,480
you know, Ariel the Baltimore play for all people in

994
00:48:24,559 --> 00:48:27,760
the circa really freaked me out because anyone who took

995
00:48:27,840 --> 00:48:31,239
Baltimore is now going to get stock having to pick

996
00:48:32,079 --> 00:48:39,400
between green Bay in Detroit, Washington in Dallas, or they're

997
00:48:39,440 --> 00:48:44,559
gonna have to take Cincinnati in Baltimore because Baltimore is

998
00:48:44,760 --> 00:48:48,400
out for Christmas or Thanksgiving.

999
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:48,800
Speaker 4: Whichever one of those.

1000
00:48:49,079 --> 00:48:49,920
Speaker 1: It's Thanksgiving.

1001
00:48:50,519 --> 00:48:55,199
Speaker 7: Yeah, So whoever took Baltimore is not thinking about this correctly,

1002
00:48:55,400 --> 00:48:59,920
because would you take green Bay going into Detroit? Would

1003
00:48:59,920 --> 00:49:03,280
you take Detroit hosting green Bay? Would you take Washington

1004
00:49:03,360 --> 00:49:06,960
going into Dallas? Would you take Dallas hosting Washington. No

1005
00:49:07,280 --> 00:49:09,719
chance you're taking Cincinnati in Baltimore.

1006
00:49:09,880 --> 00:49:12,679
Speaker 2: So ah, I don't get it.

1007
00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:13,960
Speaker 7: I try to take a long.

1008
00:49:13,920 --> 00:49:16,880
Speaker 1: Term approach with us, so I guess there are people

1009
00:49:17,000 --> 00:49:19,239
that take the long term approach. Then they're the people

1010
00:49:19,599 --> 00:49:21,440
that take the I just want to survive to that

1011
00:49:21,559 --> 00:49:26,000
point approach. That's probably most of the public, the way

1012
00:49:26,039 --> 00:49:29,280
that they play it. I know that survivor I know,

1013
00:49:29,639 --> 00:49:31,960
like Lyons is probably up there too for some people,

1014
00:49:32,119 --> 00:49:34,239
But Arizona is a pretty I like to play, even

1015
00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:36,119
though I know the books need the panthers. So good

1016
00:49:36,199 --> 00:49:36,599
luck to you.

1017
00:49:37,079 --> 00:49:38,960
Speaker 7: Yeah, and one of the guys in the chat room

1018
00:49:39,599 --> 00:49:43,000
way back said, who's a better better Gianni or the pres.

1019
00:49:43,679 --> 00:49:46,679
Speaker 2: Gianni lives, sleeps, eats, breathe.

1020
00:49:48,440 --> 00:49:54,679
Speaker 7: Gianni literally lives betting like nobody I've ever met before

1021
00:49:54,679 --> 00:49:58,039
in my life. It's eighteen hours a day. All he

1022
00:49:58,199 --> 00:50:02,159
does is study bet I do not. I am a

1023
00:50:02,239 --> 00:50:06,159
businessman and I make bets and I'm good at it.

1024
00:50:06,360 --> 00:50:12,199
But Gianni Gianni heads Although in NHL I have way

1025
00:50:12,280 --> 00:50:15,800
better than Gia, so okay in that one sport.

1026
00:50:16,599 --> 00:50:19,840
Speaker 1: But everyone has their sport. I tell Kelly, it's baseball

1027
00:50:19,920 --> 00:50:22,440
for me. I could be Kelly and baseball and everything else.

1028
00:50:22,480 --> 00:50:24,639
I'll give it to her. Kelly eats, breeds and sleeps

1029
00:50:24,719 --> 00:50:26,880
this stuff. Pres. So do you, though, So do you.

1030
00:50:27,079 --> 00:50:29,039
We love to have you on here on last call.

1031
00:50:29,519 --> 00:50:31,920
Have fun watching those games live with all the audience

1032
00:50:31,960 --> 00:50:34,400
at one pm Eastern time. Everyone make sure to tune in.

1033
00:50:35,519 --> 00:50:37,159
Good luck today, Thanks.

1034
00:50:36,960 --> 00:50:38,719
Speaker 7: Guys, thanks for having me, Thanks for doing the.

1035
00:50:38,800 --> 00:50:42,760
Speaker 1: Cereal of course, pres okay, so for me. A few

1036
00:50:42,800 --> 00:50:44,960
props that I gave out earlier this week and throughout

1037
00:50:45,000 --> 00:50:48,440
the show. Jamiir Gibbs over rushing yards, James Connor over

1038
00:50:48,559 --> 00:50:51,840
rushing yards, Travis Kelce under receiving yards. I think Joe

1039
00:50:51,880 --> 00:50:53,960
Blacko throws the football a lot in his first game

1040
00:50:54,000 --> 00:50:57,480
back at M and T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. There's

1041
00:50:57,519 --> 00:51:01,800
obviously analytics and analysis behind all, so if you want

1042
00:51:01,840 --> 00:51:03,039
to check it out, you go to the prop Queen

1043
00:51:03,079 --> 00:51:05,679
dot com sign up and subscribe to the newsletter, or

1044
00:51:05,760 --> 00:51:07,639
you can watch my shows at the prop Queen pod.

1045
00:51:08,239 --> 00:51:10,440
I've given out all that info all over the show

1046
00:51:10,840 --> 00:51:13,360
best bet right now as of today, I took James

1047
00:51:13,440 --> 00:51:18,679
Connor over I think it was sixty three and a half.

1048
00:51:18,719 --> 00:51:20,440
I think it's up to sixty eight and a half now,

1049
00:51:21,199 --> 00:51:22,960
but I took over sixty three and a half rushing

1050
00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:26,239
yards for James Connor earlier this week. He is the

1051
00:51:26,280 --> 00:51:29,079
Arizona Cardinals running back getting the Panthers, who I've mentioned

1052
00:51:29,199 --> 00:51:31,039
is the worst run d in football dating back to

1053
00:51:31,159 --> 00:51:33,800
last year. Travis Dtn just ran for one forty three

1054
00:51:33,920 --> 00:51:37,880
last week. James Connor last year underratedly faced four different

1055
00:51:37,920 --> 00:51:41,639
teams that were bottom ten against the run, and James

1056
00:51:41,679 --> 00:51:43,440
Connor rushed for at least one hundred yards and all

1057
00:51:43,559 --> 00:51:45,639
four of those games. They're six and a half point

1058
00:51:45,719 --> 00:51:47,840
favorite so if there is a chance they're up, they're

1059
00:51:47,840 --> 00:51:50,400
gonna run the ball anyway. Take advantage run down the

1060
00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:53,679
Panthers d. The only problem that we'd have with this

1061
00:51:54,079 --> 00:51:57,599
is if it is a close game. John Murray said

1062
00:51:57,639 --> 00:52:00,639
that the Panthers are in need for their book, so

1063
00:52:01,039 --> 00:52:03,679
maybe this game's closer. But James Conner should be able

1064
00:52:03,679 --> 00:52:06,519
to run the football well against the Panthers. But if

1065
00:52:06,519 --> 00:52:08,559
you don't like that, then Jimi or Gibbs would be

1066
00:52:08,639 --> 00:52:11,960
my second favorite over sixty seven and a half rushing yards.

1067
00:52:12,280 --> 00:52:15,760
He's also getting a Bears defense that I don't trust

1068
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:18,280
yet against the run either. It looks good last week

1069
00:52:18,360 --> 00:52:20,840
against Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones, but we know that

1070
00:52:20,920 --> 00:52:24,000
the Lion's backfield is way more versatile and way faster

1071
00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:27,239
than those two running backs. The Bears allowed the second

1072
00:52:27,239 --> 00:52:29,639
most rushing yards per game to running backs last year,

1073
00:52:30,039 --> 00:52:32,719
so I would take advantage of those two running back props.

1074
00:52:33,599 --> 00:52:35,719
You can't get the Travis Kelce number anymore at fifty

1075
00:52:35,760 --> 00:52:37,880
three and a half. It's now forty nine and a half.

1076
00:52:39,119 --> 00:52:40,960
And then I mentioned I think Joe Blackell has to

1077
00:52:41,000 --> 00:52:43,000
throw the football a lot to day at M and T.

1078
00:52:43,119 --> 00:52:45,880
Banks stadium. It is a very high pass attempts total

1079
00:52:46,119 --> 00:52:48,159
thirty seven and a half thirty eight and a half.

1080
00:52:48,239 --> 00:52:52,320
So those are my top four props for today. I

1081
00:52:52,559 --> 00:52:55,000
probably could give you a fifth. I just have to

1082
00:52:55,039 --> 00:52:57,639
go look at the newsletter again to remember exactly what

1083
00:52:58,320 --> 00:53:02,800
I gave out. I've also been having some technical difficulties

1084
00:53:03,239 --> 00:53:08,199
on my end on my computer today. Let's see a

1085
00:53:08,280 --> 00:53:11,159
fifth prop. And we've got Premier Lacrosse Championships, by the way,

1086
00:53:11,199 --> 00:53:13,960
coming up in a half hour, So if you want

1087
00:53:14,719 --> 00:53:18,519
a PLL play Jared Bernhard over two and a half points.

1088
00:53:18,599 --> 00:53:20,480
He had four points in the game winning goal in

1089
00:53:20,519 --> 00:53:23,320
overtime last time these two teams played. The Atlasts are

1090
00:53:23,320 --> 00:53:26,199
strong against the attack, whereas Bernhardt runs out of the

1091
00:53:26,239 --> 00:53:29,239
box and initiates from the top as a midfielder. He

1092
00:53:29,320 --> 00:53:31,480
had thirty seven touches and nine shots, which was a

1093
00:53:31,519 --> 00:53:34,599
season high in their last matchup. So Jered Bernhard over

1094
00:53:34,679 --> 00:53:38,039
two and a half points in Premiere Lacrosse. A few

1095
00:53:38,119 --> 00:53:41,679
other plays in the NFL today Cole Comet under nineteen

1096
00:53:41,719 --> 00:53:44,719
and a half receiving yards. He had a big catch

1097
00:53:44,760 --> 00:53:46,679
for thirty one yards. Last week we had the over

1098
00:53:46,760 --> 00:53:50,320
on his longest reception that cashed. But the Bears they

1099
00:53:50,480 --> 00:53:53,480
drafted Colston Loveland and he had to catches on two

1100
00:53:53,599 --> 00:53:55,840
targets for twelve yards last week, kind of getting his

1101
00:53:55,960 --> 00:53:58,719
feet wet. But now you're getting a Lions deep that

1102
00:53:58,840 --> 00:54:01,800
allowed the third least forc and third least receiving yards

1103
00:54:01,800 --> 00:54:04,480
per game to tight ends, only thirty seven percent of

1104
00:54:04,519 --> 00:54:07,280
tight ends when over their receiving yard prop last year

1105
00:54:07,280 --> 00:54:11,639
against Detroit. I think coolcomet takes a step back this week,

1106
00:54:11,880 --> 00:54:15,239
so I would say under on his receiving yards. Darnell

1107
00:54:15,320 --> 00:54:18,079
Mooney is a sleeper ish play slash, a little risky

1108
00:54:18,199 --> 00:54:20,679
solely because he missed Week one with the shoulder injury.

1109
00:54:21,159 --> 00:54:24,840
He should be playing today. Mooney had the most twenty

1110
00:54:24,960 --> 00:54:27,880
plus yard catches for the Falcons last year. He had

1111
00:54:27,960 --> 00:54:30,480
twenty one. The next best was Strake London with twelve.

1112
00:54:30,760 --> 00:54:33,599
So Darnell Mooney is your deep threat. In Atlanta, the

1113
00:54:33,719 --> 00:54:36,639
Vikings allowed the most receptions per game to wide receivers

1114
00:54:36,719 --> 00:54:39,400
and second most receiving yards per game to them, So

1115
00:54:39,559 --> 00:54:42,880
I trust the amount of touches. Do I trust the

1116
00:54:42,920 --> 00:54:45,119
amount of targets that Darnal Mooney will get in his

1117
00:54:45,239 --> 00:54:48,199
first game of the year. No, but I do trust

1118
00:54:48,280 --> 00:54:49,880
that there's going to be a deep ball thrown to

1119
00:54:50,000 --> 00:54:53,519
him and against the secondary, which is more vulnerable than

1120
00:54:53,840 --> 00:54:57,320
their pass rush. In Minnesota, Darnell Mooney over nineteen and

1121
00:54:57,360 --> 00:54:59,760
a half yards for his longest reception is another play

1122
00:55:00,079 --> 00:55:02,920
that I would take a close look at today. That's

1123
00:55:02,960 --> 00:55:05,039
it for us here on last call on wager Talk.

1124
00:55:05,360 --> 00:55:07,639
I'm the prop Queen Aria Epstein. Thanks so much for

1125
00:55:07,719 --> 00:55:10,000
tuning in. We'll see you guys next week. Good luck

1126
00:55:10,039 --> 00:55:10,599
for those bets.