Speaker 1: What's going on? Umber one, it's wager Talk Last Call.
I am so excited that we've got week two underway
and all the numbers. Everything you need to know, it's
all right here. I Wager Talk Stack show is always today,
as we've got Yanny the Greek Life from Las Vegas
taking you behind the counter, telling you everything. His sharp
groups are on. Carmine also going to break things down
for us. John Murray Super Book. You know them, you
love them. He's telling us the needs on the book
because if you want to be on the winning side,
we always know the book tends to win more than
we do. And then Pres, he's got his show at
one o'clock when you can watch Pres go live and
he can talk about all the different games on this
slate that he's watching and you can watch him have
a meltdown. I'll talk about the show. I'll tell you
what action he's on. Staxton loaded, ready to go. I've
got some prop edges as well. Let's start though with
the man, Yanni the Greek Yanni. Happy Week two.
Speaker 2: Good morning, good morning, busy morning.
Speaker 1: Busy morning, as always. How was UFC last night? By
the way, I had you good?
Speaker 3: I had a good turned the profit in the UFC
lost in boxing with Canelo. I hit the undercard bet
but lost my Canelo bet, And you know, it's crazy,
It's exactly how I expected it to go. With the
score cards in his favor. If only one more round
was scored in his direction, it would have been a draw,
even though he really lost that fight like it was
that heavily swayed in his favor in Las Vegas, which
is the reason I thought was enough to back Canelo,
like if he doesn't get finished. I didn't think they
were gonna give Crawford the decision. It came very close
to that happening.
Speaker 2: So that was wild, but overall good. It's been a
good month.
Speaker 3: Still number one in college football, number one college football
and fel combined.
Speaker 2: So let's just keep doing damage. Not all that much
coming in early.
Speaker 3: Usually I have first quarter bets by now, first half
bets by now. Some team totals nope, nope, nope, nope.
Speaker 2: I don't know week two, they're there. It's slow.
Speaker 3: It's been signs in totals so far, and a lot
of baseball this morning, so I'm thinking it's gonna get
busy over the last hour.
Speaker 1: Oh Okay, So if we don't have any of these
smaller markets like first quarterbets and whatnot, where have you
seen the most action come in on for sides?
Speaker 2: Oh that that's pretty easy. Here are the biggest sides
right now.
Speaker 3: Uh, the latest is the Cowboys, Cowboys, Cowboys, cowboys, nothing
but cowboy money Jets, believe it or not. That's why
that line's now threw that touchdown. The Jets are one
of those dogs that.
Speaker 2: Are getting a lot of love early.
Speaker 4: And who else?
Speaker 2: Who else? Oh forty nine?
Speaker 3: Even though that line's dropped and the wise guys took Arizona. Uh,
the Saints forgive me getting all those points because of Kittle,
because of Party.
Speaker 2: The public doesn't mind.
Speaker 3: They're still coming in with San Francisco today and then Arizona.
Arizona is going to be big risk for the books
later because there's going to be a ton of straight bets,
a ton of moneyline parlays, and a ton of teasers,
all closing with the Carolina Panthers. And yeah, that's pretty
much it. I mean again, good spread out action. But
those are the ones attracting the most money so far,
Dallas forty nine ers and I have to say the
Arizona Cardinals. Biggest risk for the book.
Speaker 1: So far, the big game of the day is the
Eagles and the Chiefs. Where have you seen most action
come in on for that really short one and a
half point spread exactly?
Speaker 2: And it's kind of flipped back and forth staying around
that one.
Speaker 3: This is a great matchup to be a book maker
in because there's really very little risk. They're booking good
two way action, even like with parlays and teasers, getting
good two AA action, So not much risk at all
for the books. I actually made the Eagles a favorite
in the game. I made my total about forty five
forty five and a half, so I don't think I'm.
Speaker 2: Gonna be able to get down. It's right around where
that number is.
Speaker 3: I know all the excitement again is on that Super
Bowl rematch, But so far, what I can tell you
is good split two way action from the recreational betters
and nothing from the wise guys except they got out
ahead on the over. They went over forty six and
a half when that total opened. But pay attention to
the log Odds logic screen and see if there's TakeBack
on that one, because again that's a high profile standalone
more or less late afternoon game that's going to get
a lot of over money from the recreational betters.
Speaker 1: I actually just saw my Ravens line moved to twelve
and a half largest spread on the board this week.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and here's the thing. We bet the Browns earlier
in the week at.
Speaker 1: Please tell me that, Yannie.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah at plus twelve line dropped earlier. It was
like my sharper shops, I'm even seeing thirteen thirteen and
a half, but.
Speaker 3: It was down to like eleven and a half area
because we took the points with the Browns.
Speaker 2: But since then they came back with the Ravens.
Speaker 3: And again, a lot of that has to do with
late injury information that you know, the official injury reports
don't come out till later in the week, so a
lot of times Bettingson's just trying to get out ahead
of that information, and as it changes, they're not afraid
to get offer on a game.
Speaker 2: And it looks like that's what's happening.
Speaker 3: Even though early Brown sharp money, you're starting to see
that Baltimore short money come in because the public's not
really getting involved in that game.
Speaker 2: It's mostly being teased.
Speaker 3: They're teasing the Ravens down to where you know they've
got to win by one score more or less to
cover that teaser.
Speaker 2: That's where I'm seeing most of.
Speaker 3: The betting action from the public on that game, and
they're betting it over blindly over. I'm talking eight to
nine out of every ten bets has been on the
over in the Ravens and Browns.
Speaker 1: Bill wants to know if you've got a teaser for today.
Speaker 3: Teaser right now here, I would definitely tease the New
England Patriots win or lose.
Speaker 2: That's a plus CV side.
Speaker 3: You're getting them up through three through six through seven,
and you're seeing a total that open forty five and
a half. Get that bet down the forty three and
a half. So that's exactly what you want. You want
a game that's expected to have low points. The lower
the scoring, the more each point is worth. That's what
you want for your teasers. The only problem is finding
another leg to time into and right now I would
have to go with Tampa on Monday Night, another perfect
setup where the total open forty six and a half.
Now we're looking at forty two and a half. So
you can't get a better teaser than that like, that's
a perfect plus CV teaser right now. Where you tie
in New England, you tie in Tampa Bay. The only
thing you gotta hope for is that that Houston line
don't go to three tomorrow. That's a problem. I'm seeing
two and a half minus one twenty. So if it
goes to three, it's no longer a wongabut teaser, it's
no longer advantageous. You're better off just taking the plus three.
That's the problem. I'm not seeing any other leg you
could really tease today, and they've done a really good
job of protecting themselves from them teasers, because again, those
are very advantageous.
Speaker 2: You know you have an edge on it.
Speaker 3: As long as you're not laying more than one twenty
five on a six point teaser, you could print money.
Speaker 1: Really really got me mad.
Speaker 2: This is blocking them.
Speaker 1: So I live in New York, and I use all
the books like the I use all the legal books here,
and every year I use my teasers with Draft Kicks.
I placed my teasers with DraftKings because they've been minus
one twenty since DraftKings came to New York. Vanduel was
minus one thirty six and GM is minus one thirty
DraftKings are the best number at minus one twenty this season.
They have now moved it too minus one thirty six
yees because particular here's why.
Speaker 2: Let me explain to you exactly why. It's the same reason.
Speaker 3: On the if you walk through the casino floor, on
the floor, the black jack is now six to five,
it's no longer three to two. That little switch of
one rule where you no longer pay three to two,
you're playing six to five. Most betters don't even acknowledge that,
don't even understand that. But that change in rule made
it to where someone like me can no longer beat
that game. Where I could beat a game, a fair
game of blackjack, but switching it from three to two
to six to five, my edge is gone. In teasers
by going to one thirty, the six point teasers no
longer beatable.
Speaker 2: At one twenty, you had a two percent edge.
Speaker 3: All you had to do is tease through three, six,
and seven, and you had a two percent edge. Your
break even was around seventy four percent.
Speaker 2: If you're able to do that.
Speaker 3: You're going to hit around seventy six percent. So they
knew you had a two percent edge. If you were
teasing the right sides. Well, most weren't teasing the right numbers.
So DraftKings didn't care. They had so much recreational betters
they could keep it at one twenty and attract all
that teaser action. Eventually, sharp betters took advantage of that,
and that's why it's no longer avaiuable. If you're laying
one thirty on a six point teaser, you're now taking
the worst of it. You're hoping to beat a product
of good luck because it's a negative eb bet. There's
negative expectations on your bet there like, that's the math.
That's not my opinion, that's just how the math plays out.
Speaker 1: Teaser question, do you have to play a favorite and
an underdog or can you place two favorites and two underdogs?
Speaker 2: My man, you could bet two favorites, you could bet
two underdogs. It really doesn't matter. Just don't tease totals,
that's it.
Speaker 1: And don't tease across zero.
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, yeah. Don't go through those zeros.
Speaker 1: We don't go through those zeros. Marley saying, Hi, Yanni.
By the way, any Steelers Seahawks advice, I.
Speaker 3: Like the dog there, I like Seattle. Listen the Jets
were able to score on the Steelers. The Steelers got
you know that field going the end, they got the win.
But at the end of the day that year, the
Jets are able to move the ball like that on you.
I don't think Seattle, whose offense didn't look great, is
going to have all that many problems and defensively, defensively,
what I saw out of Seattle last week, all those turnovers,
fumble interceptions, and they still limited the offense of the opposition.
I think the Steelers gonna have trouble scoring on Seattle.
I like the Seahawks. I think that three is a gift. Yeah,
I like Seattle there, but I'm seeing short money coming in.
They're pushing that Steeler from three to juice.
Speaker 2: I don't like seeing that. I would have liked to
see that two and a half this morning. So but
I like the Seattle side.
Speaker 1: I like the question that the chat also had and
I don't know where it is, but someone asked, is
there a side that the public and the Sharks are
disagreeing on?
Speaker 2: H I'll tell you I don't.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have to go Broncos Colts. I have to
go Broncos Colts because I'm seeing a lot of one
side of public money coming in on the Broncos. And
again in the afternoon, there's not all that many games
that's Broncos Broncos Broncos. I'm seeing Broncos teasers, moneyline parlays.
Speaker 2: And sharp so on the Colt side.
Speaker 3: So that's definitely one where it's Sharp's on one side,
public on the other.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's one for short.
Speaker 1: Speaking of that game, there's gonna be a lot of
overreactions in Week two. We know the public loves to
overreact to. Miami looked like dog crap last week. The
Colts they looked great, even though I don't feel like
people really believe in them. Which teams are we overreacting to,
whether it's for better or for worse? Who should we
not overreact to this week? Ynnie?
Speaker 3: I think the Lions, you know, all the just tell
how bad they look, lost the offensive coordinator, lost the
defensive coordinator, and then on top of it, you have
Green Bay coming out looking phenomenal.
Speaker 2: They beat the.
Speaker 3: Lions in Game one, they come back, they win on
Thursday night against a Washington team. You know that coming
off a great season. So the choice kind of like
that forgotten team.
Speaker 1: Right now, I win by at least ten today, I'm
all over. Yeah there my survivor week for a lot
of spots, I picked them in my pick on pool.
I don't normally love to lay close to a touchdown
the Lions matchup. I don't believe that the Bears run
D was as good as it was last week and
week one Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason. They aren't as good
and dynamic and versatile as the backfield for the Lions.
The Lions should be able to run clock run all
over the Bears D and cover the spread.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so.
Speaker 3: And also, like the Saints again, I don't understand why
how you could have these players out for San Francisco
and yet all the money is on San Francisco again.
I know we usually overreact that players are worth more
to the line than they truly are, but in this spot,
it's like New Orleans was all over already a team
Betters were looking to fade.
Speaker 2: They lost in Week one to Arizona.
Speaker 3: Now they're playing a San Francisco team and like they're
fading them again. I think that's a dangerous spot right there.
Be careful with San Francisco on the road on specially,
and players keep players out. That's one that I keep
see in bet and seeing the over being bet by
the public as well. Again, but the sharps bet that under.
They're usually going to bet the injured matchups under. They
went hundred forty four and a half all the way
to under forty two. That's why you're looking at forty
one right now, and real quickly pay attention to that
because of the look aheads. So if you're looking at
your odds logic screen or at the very least the
free way to talk free once and you'll click, make
sure you look at the date of where the line opened,
because the look aheads are from like before last week's games.
Some of them were adoring last week's games, and those
limits are very small, so they're able to, you know,
take some sharp action, but the limits are low off
those first numbers, So look at the date for Monday
on and then see what actually was adjusted, because a
lot of them look like big line movements, but off
of that look ahead there's not much movement at all.
It's just because from the look ahead to where they
are officially opened for the week, there was a big
gap because of the overreaction and.
Speaker 1: Like you touched on, Nick from New York City wants
to know what are the most public totals for the
books that they need today.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, that's easy. It's going to be on the overs,
that's for sure.
Speaker 3: So start with over Jaguars, Bengals, over Giants, Cowboys.
Speaker 2: Over Bill's Jets.
Speaker 3: Yeah, those three are the biggest that stick out the most.
Like it's not even close, like ninety plus percent of
the tickets and the bets.
Speaker 2: Are on the overs in all four of those games.
Speaker 1: Yeah, a lot of unders in Week one. We've got
prime time as well. So we've got one game tonight
between the Falcons and the Vikings, and then we've got
two Monday night games tomorrow. Any action that you see
coming in there.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you're seeing that that Atlanta money continue to come in,
and I'm interested to.
Speaker 1: See if that land that scares me a little. I
liked them.
Speaker 2: It's down to that three now. I was surprised. I
was surprised that they were three.
Speaker 3: You could even get them at now plus three even money,
because you know they got to juice to three.
Speaker 2: I'm like, is it gonna go to three minus one? Ten?
Speaker 3: Two and a half like there's a lot of love
on the Atlanta side and the under there from sharp,
but the public's betting it over. And then tomorrow on
Monday Night it's the Chargers. Everybody's in love with the
Chargers now after week one and playing here against Las Vegas,
you know it's a big Monday night game for the Raiders.
Be careful there. It's above that key number now three.
But a lot of parlays and the teasers that are
going to be live from Sunday are definitely going to
be on the Chargers Monday Night. Interested to see if
that line continues to climb as well, but I.
Speaker 2: Haven't seen sharp money on those.
Speaker 3: The only thing I saw was under in the Buccaneers
Texans immediately when that line opened, and they've just continued
to bet that one under.
Speaker 1: That doesn't surprise me. Survivor picks for today. Who would
you do for Survivor?
Speaker 3: Ooh, well, obviously, and everybody's gonna look at boredom Or
if they haven't played them, he got a.
Speaker 2: Double digit favorite, but there's no fun in that. Ah
would I go with?
Speaker 4: Real quickly?
Speaker 3: I think I would take Buffalo. I think I would
take Buffalo, Buffalo is not losing to the Jets. I
think it's a decent spot to take Buffalo in.
Speaker 2: Yeah, go with Buffalo Buffalo.
Speaker 1: I know that problem are as much of your thing
as mine. But did the groups come in on any
props today?
Speaker 2: No, That's what I keep refreshing, and I'm not saying
they will. I just haven't gotten any. I haven't gotten
on yet.
Speaker 1: Interesting. Is there a reason that they wait because they're
trying to wait for the unders?
Speaker 2: I think so. Again, it's early, still in the season.
Speaker 1: But here's what I notice, and I know that you
can say and maybe listen. There are some times where
a prop will go from like I'll give an example
Travis Kelcey this week was fifty three and a half,
went down to forty nine and a half. At that point,
I would say, like I took under fifty three and
a half earlier this week, and I said, well, now
it's forty nine and a half, so wait to see
if it gets bet over and then you could go
and take the under again. But a lot of the
times when I'm on the right side of that number,
it drops and doesn't bounce back. So I don't know.
Sometimes about waiting long into the week for betting unders, like,
you've got to bet those unders early. I've seen so
many numbers drop five ten yards throughout the span of
a week, and you'll never get that good number back.
Speaker 3: I always tell betters it's hard enough to beat the market.
Don't try to play psychic on when you're gonna beat it.
Like when you have a bet fire fire, if you're
right more than your wrong long term, you're gonna get
closing line value. Don't worry about it on individual bets.
It's kind of like don't overreact on any individual result.
Any one bet the same thing with closing line value.
Like if the line moves against you, that's okay, as
long as in the majority of time it's moving in
your favor. You're getting better number by getting out early.
Continue to get out early. If that's not happening to you,
then you got to revisit the thesis. But if you're
betting early and more times than not, you're getting closing
line value.
Speaker 2: Keep doing what you're doing. You're only going to get
more and more of it because you're doing the right thing.
If you're not, then you got to revisit it.
Speaker 3: But otherwise, don't worry about the time it goes against you,
because even with me, with the.
Speaker 2: Groups that I work with, it happens. So look at
happening with the Browns. I took.
Speaker 3: We took twelve, and now I could get thirteen to day.
So I can get a better number today than what
we betted at.
Speaker 2: That's going to happen.
Speaker 3: But as long as you know seven out of ten
times we're getting the best of the number, I could
live with that.
Speaker 1: Joannie, Is Miami a good team and survivor? This week?
Speaker 2: Oh Miami? What is against the Patriots?
Speaker 1: No?
Speaker 3: I guess if you want to take a shot and
roll the dice, that's too much of a poin flip game.
I think it's too early in season to roll the
dice like that, like in week two.
Speaker 1: To get you always not regressing to the mean. Right,
Miami is not as bad as they looked last year.
Speaker 2: No, no, no, But here's the pay.
Speaker 3: Here's the problem that it's the NFL season and it's
short aerial and we have those outliers. If it was baseball,
I would say one, Miami's gonna regress or progress towards
the mean. There's enough time, But in football sometimes there's
not enough time. We have those outliers. We're on paper
a team so much better or worse than their record,
but they just never have enough time to.
Speaker 2: Become that team they're capable of being. In baseball, you
have one hundred sixty two games.
Speaker 3: That's why before the season started I could tell you
maybe one team's gonna win sixty games. The first place
teams are gonna win between fifty seven and fifty nine,
maybe fifty five and fifty nine. Why because we have
a history of fifty plus years of them playing one
hundred and sixty two games, and that's what happens. No
one's gonna win seventy percent of their games. But in
football sometimes that happened. Not enough time to progress and regress.
There are those outliars. So be poetious with that quick turnaround,
expecting the bias that to flip back the other way.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I don't play here to take Miami. I'm
cheering them in. I don't have a dog in the fight.
Speaker 1: Oh I love it. I love to hear all these
sharp sides. And if you guys missed it, our YouTube
page over at Wager Talking can scroll back and see
everything Yannie just gave out. I see all your questions.
In the chat, Yannie talked about pretty much all those games,
so make sure to take a look there. Lastly, I
guess you said you had a lot of MLB coming in,
So anything for the guys that want to take advantage
of a market that maybe is being ignored today.
Speaker 3: Yeah, real quickly nine fifty two Pittsburgh and under eight
and a half, nine fifty eight under eight and a
half Colorado, San Diego, nine sixty under eight Yankees, Boston
nine sixty two under eight and a half Baltimore, Toronto.
Speaker 2: Multiple groups blasted that one nine.
Speaker 3: Sixty six under eight LA and Seattle, Atlanta plus one
twenty five cac plus one forty five Miami plus one
twenty five Dog Dog Dog Dog on Sundays, that time
of the year for baseball. Whether you follow her fate,
good luck today, join us in the steam room. Kicks
off in about thirty minutes. We'll go through every NFL
game and you'll get those teasers about fifteen minutes for
kickoff as well.
Speaker 1: Yanny Degree, he's always over here giving us these winners.
Thanks so much, Johnny, Thanks Cereal. Coming up now we
are joined out by our guy in Vegas again. This Sean.
He's behind the counter. He's my very good friend, best
friend of Kelly and Vegas, co host of Kelly and Murray,
but more importantly, the dog dad to two beautiful puppies.
John Murray joining the show. Hi, John.
Speaker 5: Ariel, best friend of Kelly and Vegas. I don't know,
but my best friend is my pul Mario, So come on.
Speaker 1: I that it was gonna be a raging endorsement to
be Kelly and Vegas.
Speaker 5: So how are you doing today? Are you ready for
the Ravens? I know they let you down last week.
I was disappointed in you last week. Do you remember
this book? Needed Bill's big time? And then I slid
into your DMS after the game and said, are you
at least happy for me? And you said no, no
word answer great disupporting.
Speaker 1: Football is a selfish sport. I don't know what you're
talking about. I'm not a happy person. Football season makes
me more unhappy. I was miserable. It was really nice
of you, though, you're a really great friend. Jam You
love to just harass us when we're down, keep kicking us.
Speaker 5: No, no, that that was a big game for us.
I won't be rooting against you today. Though I will
I will be rooting for I'm going to root for
the Ravens today.
Speaker 4: For you.
Speaker 1: Wow, thank you, thank you John so much. I know
that we two is filled with overreactions, but I know
that my personal group chat loves to know the needs
for the super book this week. What are they?
Speaker 5: Uh, definitely, I'd say early in the morning, we're gonna
need Chicago. It looks like the biggest need of the
morning is actually going to be Tennessee. Tennessee five and
a half point dog right now against the Rain. I
mentioned the Bears. We're gonna need Seattle, so Pittsburgh off
their win against the Jets is a popular side. We'll
need the Seahawks the afternoon. Oh boy, it looks like
we're gonna need Carolina. It doesn't sound the Carolina at Arizona.
Think think about the NFL being on this side of
the counter. Is you gotta You're basically gonna bring for
the same teams every week. I think this year it's
gonna be a lot of Carolina, a lot of New Orleans,
maybe Tennessee. Although I actually thought that cam Ward looked
pretty good last Sunday. To be honest with you, going
on the road against that Denver defense. His receivers did
him no favors. I saw him hitting his receivers right
between the hands and them dropping the ball. So I
don't think cam Ward's gonna be that bad, but I
do think we're gonna need the Titans a lot.
Speaker 4: We need him today.
Speaker 1: I know my group Cat's gonna love to hear that
the Titans, the Bears, the Seahawks, and the Panthers are
gonna be the teams that they have to bet today.
Speaker 4: Setting it was in that group chat Ariel. Who's in
that group chat?
Speaker 1: Kelly, Kelly, this group chat one of eighty thousand, Chris Thurston.
Speaker 4: I love Chris.
Speaker 1: Joe.
Speaker 4: Okay, I know who that is.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Joe, I think that's it. Everyone else kind of
has been eliminated from our lives, the chat figure.
Speaker 4: But every year it seems like everybody else is off
the hook.
Speaker 1: That's good totals, any totals.
Speaker 4: Let me see.
Speaker 5: I'm sure we'll probably need the under in the Yeah,
we do. We need the under in the Philadelphia Kansas
City game. Obviously, that's the big game in the afternoon.
Looks like we'll want under in your game. Want the
under end Baltimore Baltimore Cleveland game, and the under in
the Buffalo game Buffalo and the New York Jets.
Speaker 4: We got some money on the over in that one
as well. We'll be rooting for. Oh here's one.
Speaker 5: We actually need the over. You're ready for this, We
need the over. San Francisco New Orleans. That game is
all the way out of forty nine ers minus three.
Three nine ers obviously have some key injuries on offense.
I mentioned the Saints Spencer Rattler is their quarterback for
whatever reason, and we will be needing them to go over.
Speaker 4: Total right now is forty and a half.
Speaker 1: That actually makes a lot of sense that that game
needs to How did the books in Week one? Overall
jam So.
Speaker 5: We had a great morning We did great in the
morning games, and then we lost every afternoon game last week.
It was it reminded me a lot of like every
weekend last NFL season where the afternoon games really bad
for us.
Speaker 4: We really needed Houston against the Rams. That was a
really bad game for us.
Speaker 5: We lost the forty nine er game, we lost the
Packer game, and then all the moneyline parlays and teasers
went to Denver and they won. So we lost every
game in the afternoon luckily. And I'm not saying this,
I'm not saying this to rub it in, but Buffalo
winning did bail us out. Buffalo beating Baltimore did bail
us out. I will never understand why John Harball punt
it on fourth and three. I I I talked about
this with Kelly. I think I think one of the
biggest things that doesn't get talked about enough in the
NFL is it's not black and white, like, oh, should
you go forward on fourth and three?
Speaker 4: It's who's your quarterback? Who's the other team's quarterback.
Speaker 5: If your quarterback is Lamar Jackson and the other team's
quarterback is Josh Allen, yeah you need to go forward
on fourth and three.
Speaker 4: You don't mind, Yeah you don't.
Speaker 5: Well, you don't punt the ball back to Josh Allen. Okay,
you're just you're just saying we're gonna lose. If the
other team's quarterback was Russell Wilson, well then maybe you
would punt the ball back, right. So I think I
think that that doesn't get talked about enough when people
are evaluating those fourth down situations.
Speaker 4: But I thought Baltimore made a huge mistake and it
was very good for us.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, hey, listen, I'm gonna overreact and say the
Ravens are dead to me until further notice. Week two. Though,
where have you seen the public overreact?
Speaker 5: Let's see the public. I mean, the public is very
heavily on the Rams. I mentioned that game, and then
there's been a there's a lot of money actually on
New England this week, so New England is a very
popular side. New England did lose last week to the Raiders,
but they at least looked like a competent operation, unlike
their opponents today, the Miami Dolphins, who well, that's.
Speaker 1: Where I think people could be overreacting. Though that I
don't think Miami gets as bad as they looked last week.
Speaker 5: I usually expect Miami to be a decent team until
two Tongue of Iola gets injured, which he will right
and then and then after that the wheels will come
off for that organization. But as long as two is
in there, I don't expect them to be to be terrible.
Speaker 4: I don't think so.
Speaker 5: The other team that's really the most heavily beat team
of the day is absolutely the Dallas Cowboys. We don't
have as much money on that game. It's more tickets,
but so it's not as big of a need as
some of the other ones I mentioned. But if you
just want to look at ticket counts, Dallas minus the
points Dallas money line is in every parlay under the sun. Today,
I just made a Russell Wilson joke, So apparently I
agree with the public on that. Russell Wilson looked horrible
last week against the Commanders, the football team. I don't
blame people for wanting to go with Dallas. Dallas probably
should have beat the Eagles in Week one. They get
the Giants today.
Speaker 1: We'll see those Giants anything in the futures market stand
out after week one.
Speaker 5: Yeah, you know they're starting to bet. They're starting to
bet on green Bay, which I get.
Speaker 4: You know, green Bay look I like Detroit. Last week.
Speaker 5: I think we talked about that when I was on
your show, and we had a lot of guys I
respect on Detroit. That line actually closed green Bay minus
one and that was clearly the wrong side. Green Bay
handled Detroit. And then we saw some players we respected
on Washington on Thursday thinking maybe green.
Speaker 4: Bay maybe they're not that good. Well, they are that good.
Especially on defense green Bay. I don't know what.
Speaker 5: There's nothing you can say that isn't positive about them
right now, as long as they can keep Jordan Love healthy.
Michael Parsons is just getting his legs underneath him. He's
not even at full speed yet.
Speaker 4: Once he can.
Speaker 1: The only nice thing I could say about green Bay
is that everybody's on green Bay.
Speaker 5: Yeah, but that's true. But they were on Thursday, and
you know, we did not do well on the game Thursday.
Every the public beg green Bay for sure in that game,
and they won it easily.
Speaker 4: So what can you say?
Speaker 1: The public isn't always wrong the pup, Well.
Speaker 5: Hey, look we the public was all over Terrence Bud
Crawford last night here at Allegiance Stadium, and he won
very decisively, very impressive.
Speaker 4: The public nailed that. So definitely not always wrong. Definitely not.
Speaker 1: John Murray coming over to see us from the West gate.
I've got my pup. You want to say hi to John?
You want to say hi to John?
Speaker 4: I do want to John.
Speaker 2: J wants to say hi to you.
Speaker 1: She really is mad that we're just sitting here and
not outside playing in this beautiful weather. I guess the
final question primetime games. Two games tomorrow, one game tonight.
What do you see in primetime?
Speaker 5: Well, there's a lot of action on the two games
tomorrow night. And kudos to the NFL. They're finally giving
us a true doubleheader. You know, last year they did
a lot of those where they had the two Monday
night games spaced out by an hour. I found that
a little annoying. This week we get an actual doubleheader.
Sharp money on Houston against Tampa Bay and then sharp
money on the Chargers. Push that number from three to
three and a half at the Raiders. Speaking of teams
that look great in Week one, how about the Chargers
and Justin Herbert. They looked awesome last Friday night they
beat Kansas City in South Paolo, Brazil. They looked really good.
You know, I love Jim Harbaugh, so keep an eye
on the Chargers. They I think the Raiders will end
up being a big need for the books because there
will be parlays all day to day going into the
Chargers tomorrow night in the late game.
Speaker 4: We'll probably need the Raiders in that one.
Speaker 1: We've got a w n B. A question, but your
feedback in the.
Speaker 5: Playoffs, let me see, I mean repeat the question I'll
attempt to answer it was w NBA.
Speaker 1: Any advice when the playoffs start?
Speaker 4: Oh boy, let's see.
Speaker 1: Well.
Speaker 4: Luckily for me, I do work at a sports book,
so I can look to see what the smart people
bet on.
Speaker 5: Because I don't know much about the w NBA. I
apologize for that, but certainly some smart money on. It
looks like the Storm. Oh against the Aces. That's unfortunate.
The Storm tonight against the Aces in Game one. They
bet them down from plus seven to plus five and
a half. They also bet the over in that game.
Speaker 4: So the Storm and the Over. Game one is tonight
in Las Vegas.
Speaker 5: There's a big sporting sporting event in Las Vegas every day,
Ariel every and wait till we get major League Baseball
in a couple of years.
Speaker 1: I can't wait. I will be there. I want to
go and make sure that we go to a real
ball game together. JM Live from Las Vegas. Thanks for
hopping on with us as you do every Sunday, giving
us the needs of the day. Appreciate you and not
good luck. No good luck today.
Speaker 4: Oh that's nice, that's very nice. I'll still talk to
you next week anyway.
Speaker 1: I appreciate that thanks Sean Murray, have a good one.
And if you guys don't know about it, the odds
Logic screen, you could go to odds Logic dot com
slash prop queen and you heard Yanni mention it. It
shows you literally all the odds on the board. It
tells you how lines opened, how they're closing, how they moved,
and every sports book, et cetera. So odds Logic dot
Com slash prop Queen someone who knows about odd logic
very well. Our good friend carl and Bianco joining the show.
Now he's not in Vegas, he's in Canada.
Speaker 6: What what's up, carm Not much, I can't but John
Murray used his luck today on Liverpool. I got a
ninety third minute penalty kicked, so he should be happy
even if the book takes a hit today. But everything's good.
Weather's still good up here, no snow arail, don't worry,
and our Blue Jays are still a top of the
Al East.
Speaker 4: But we won't go there.
Speaker 6: It's football Sunday.
Speaker 1: It's football Sunday. We can talk about the Al East
and that craziness this coming week. But caarm I don't
really get to talk much on a bell with you.
Usually it's hockey, it's baseball, it's soccer, and a bell
what do you like?
Speaker 6: Today, We're gonna talk like some overreactions. So I'm gonna
go through some games. I think the two that really
stand out to me, well, I have a five percent
play up at wager Talk, so I'm not going to.
Speaker 4: Discuss that game.
Speaker 6: We can get it over on my page. But one
of my client plays today is Denver. You know, we
talk about like overreaction. You know, Indya had a very
good game against Miami, but Miami. I thought Miami just
looked terrible out of the gate. You know, I feel
like this line should probably be around Denver two two
and a half. I'm seeing like a lot of ones
and one and a half's on the wager Talk Live odds.
It's never gonna hit three. It's never going to hit
that key number. But you know, Denver supposed to have
a good season. They have a very good defense. They
didn't play did did did? They didn't seem to be
ready to play in Week one against cam Ward on
the road in his first start as a rookie. But
they got the win and that's all that ultimately matters.
They don't care about covering point spreads. They care about w's.
I think they win here and uh and I think
they cover this spread easily. At least they went by
three points, which is more than enough. Houston definitely on
Monday Night. I absolutely love that one. That's going to
be on my card as well too. I just haven't
loaded it yet. At two and a half. When we
talk about like overreactions, I'm seeing a lot of money
coming in on Miami. Miami is like up to two
and a half right now, and I still don't get
it with the Dolphins. I think once they get rid
of there, once they were get rid of their coach,
we may see a change in this team. But I
just don't get how the Miami Dolphins year in and
year out look like a team that has potential to
win the AFC East and then just falters and finishes eight, eight,
nine and eight. Cleveland Baltimore, You're not gonna like this one,
are But I think Cleveland stays within the number on
this one. It is at a point now where it's
at twelve, and there's always that backdoor if Baltimore was
to blow them up. But Cleveland's front four is a
very good front four, and if they can somehow stop
Derrick Henry, which is it seems like impossible to do,
and slow down Lamar, they got a chance to stay
inside this number. Flacco doesn't make a lot of mistakes,
the team can run, So we'll see what happens here
between those two. I think they can stay within that number.
Everyone is on Baltimore in a survivor and I absolutely
understand that. In circa I think there's six thousand plus
on the Ravens as the most picked team San Francisco.
I don't get ariol, I don't get the I understand
the line drop. I do, but this is still a
very bad New Orleans Saints team. And if you have
to give me Mac Jones versus Rattler, I'm going to
take Mac Jones on this team. This team still has
CMC persl Juwan Jenny is supposed to be a game
time decision, and they still have that defense. While they
have some rookies on that D, they still have a defense.
And sometimes defense will win you games and put your
team in a position to win games. It's at three
now embedible at five and a half. I don't think
it was betable at three. I would take San Francisco
even with the injuries. What else Casey a little bit
of overreaction, I think on that one. I get at
Philadelphia absolutely smoked them in the super Bowl last season.
But case Casey is still Casey and at home. This
is in Casey, I believe. Is it not at home?
Casey mahomes as a dog. We've talked about it before.
Not a good situation to bet against them. Regular season
and playoffs are two different beasts. Just asked the Buffalo
Bills who continuously beat the Kansas City Chiefs in sorry
in regular season and then get eliminated in the playoffs.
Two different ones there. And then the final one I
think is Minnesota off a short week. I kind of
like Atlanta getting the hook at the three and a
half tonight in that late one.
Speaker 1: I'm going through like the entire card today. I wasn't
expecting that last.
Speaker 3: No.
Speaker 1: I love it because John Murray just came on and
he told us Tennessee, Chicago, Seattle, Carolina are the four
sides that they probably need the most today. And I
am not surprised because I feel like a lot of
people I've heard of are on Arizona. I get it.
And I really like James Honor today in his rushing
year of prophet with Carolina, d is terrible against the run.
But I have a friend who works in Carolina and
he loves the Panthers today. So I feel like there's
just like a lot of pros versus jows today.
Speaker 6: Shouldn't he like Carolina though?
Speaker 1: If he, if he lives now, he works in the media,
he's non biased, so.
Speaker 6: He's non biased. Okay, Well, I get it. I always
put my bias aside when I'm talking about the Buffalo
Bills as well too, because you can sort of let
that your mind. And no, I hardly ever bet on
the Bills it normally because number one, the spreads are
just even though they're a good cover team and they
were last year, the spreads are normally just high. You
look at the Bills today and we didn't discuss the
Bills and a lot of money. Everyone loves the Jets.
I know Joe Ranieri loves the Jets today. Everyone seems
to love the Jets.
Speaker 1: Spot for the Bills Ravens last week. They're on a
short week next week going to my facing Miami, so
I understand I had not I wanted nothing to do
with the Bills.
Speaker 6: Yeah, and uh, you know, and you look at some
of the injuries. Obviously at Oliver missing is a big
miss for them, but you look at some of the
injuries during the week, uh, with regards like the even
like even their running back he tweaked his handstring on Wednesday.
He wasn't a full participant on Thursday. I think he
did practice on Friday. So we'll see what we we
get from him. Uh Keon Keon Coleman as well too.
And then there's that guy who you just don't want
to throw at, which is uh sauce Gardner. You know,
you just don't want to go against them and the
and if you look at historically over the last few
years with with Josh Allen, uh, he doesn't go after
sauce Gardner. He's kind of after him a couple of times.
He doesn't go after him. So it's who else on
the Bills steps up. We'll see what Shakira does as
well too. But I understand the live movement. I think
seven coming out opening at seven was probably not a
great thing because it was always going to bring in
Jets money and it's down to like five five and
a half I think six.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 6: The interesting thing is, you know people talk about teasers,
and well, I do enjoy playing teasers. You look at
the three most popular teams with like a six and
a half point teaser, and this was as of like
last night. You could have taken the Bills, Zona, and
Detroit and essentially made all three games a pick them
and those three teams would pay you back at plus
one thirty on a six and a half point teaser.
If you take the same three teams on the money line,
it pays one forty. And this is why when you're
playing teasers, it's important to keep an eye on the
money lines of these teams and see is it better
to play a money line ticket than it is to
play a teaser, because you're you're giving up some value
by not taking the plus one forty on the money
line parlay as a post to taking a teaser.
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, we were just talking about this before, especially
with all these books now charging you minus one thirty
five for a teaser, a two legg teaser just absolutely ridiculous.
And by the way, Jimmy Burke thirteen terrible against the run.
They played one game. Look at the Panthers last year, honey.
They have been terrible against the run for the last
year and a half. They were the worst rundee in
football last year and it didn't change after they allowed
Traves YTN to put up one forty three. So come on,
let's it's not just week one, like not just week one. Sorry.
I had to get that out there, Carl. What are
you promoting today?
Speaker 6: Uh? Three plays up? I gave you guys one of them,
which is the Denver Broncos, but a five percent play
since the start of the twenty twenty two NFL season,
which dates back three years now when releasing four and
five percent plays, and all my plays this week are
four and five percent plays plus one hundred and thirty
units wager Talk, which is number one amongst everyone at
wager Talk with NFL. And we're coming off at three
O day in college football yesterday as well too. I
got what aria. I got the closing line value yesterday
on I released it early in the week because I
figured the line would drop on Arkansas they were plus seven.
Once Old Miss announced their their QB was out, that
line did drop. It dropped to about four by game time,
and I got the cover so I'm pretty happy about
that with Arkansas and everyone who jumped on board. But
the Weekend Warrior package is still up. Forty nine dollars
will get you all of today's plays and all of
tomorrow's plays in NFL Football as well too, So that
that is it for now, no other plays up. It's
been a great weekend five and one yesterday, and we're
just going to try and keep it going through Sunday
and Monday, and we're going to be sweating the games
live today. If you guys haven't seen it or if
you didn't watch it last week End Zone Live, which
will be on I think around one thirty today. I
could be wrong on the time, but End Zone Live today,
the pres there's a bunch of people coming on the show.
There's about four or five and we just sweat the games.
We let you know what our bets are, and it
is like five guys at a bar just talking trash
to each other and trying to win bets because sometimes
we're on opposite sides, so talking trash is great.
Speaker 1: We love talking trash. Carm You're the best, Thanks so
much for coming on. Good luck today you as well.
Thank you, Cody Holloway, I don't know what Fandele you're at.
My Fandel charges minus one thirty minus one thirty five
on teasers, so I don't know if it's a state
by state thing, but here in New York Fandel is
not charging minus one ten. In fact, I haven't seen
one book charge of minus one ten on a teaser,
a two leg teaser. I have not seen a minus
one ten anywhere on any of the public sports books
or the the sports books over here, So I don't
know where you're getting that. But okay, last, but certainly
not least, as we mentioned before, with carm end Zone
Live coming up at one pm Eastern time, and all
of your favorite waistertalk handicappers will be on there sweating
out their bets. Indy and Prez are going to be
on there, so Prez joining the show. How did week
one go at that end Zone Live betting show?
Speaker 2: Well, I don't know.
Speaker 7: Actually I just did all the talking. Everyone who wants
how you do?
Speaker 4: I did?
Speaker 7: Okay, I want with my clients. The show was fun.
I had a blast, but it's a long show and
you know it's still you got sunshine outside. Normally I
would have watched the game at my pool. I have
like a bank of TVs. I like sit in the
hot tub. But Alas, I gotta work, and I'm okay
with that. I offered my services.
Speaker 1: We love to work. Pres What do you like today?
Speaker 7: What do I like today? God, I'll tell you. I'll
go down the cart at one hundred miles an hour.
But I do want to say one thing, earthly, Ariel,
you mentioned rough spot for the Bills with Baltimore back
behind us and Miami in front. Why is it not
a rough spot for the New York Jets circling a
game against Aaron Rodgers, waiting all year to play it,
then screwing it up at the end, having to go
in to the dressing room in a bad mood, having
to say no to their wives that night because they
are very upset, then having to go to Monday and
being lectured and reamed out all the way through the week,
feeling down about themselves, feeling upset about themselves.
Speaker 1: The only reason it's not is because the Bills are
on a short week going into Thursday. Oh the only difference.
Speaker 7: I accept what you're saying, and that's what kept me
off of the Bills today.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I don't no interest in the Bills today,
but I agree with you that the Jets are not
in any better of a position. Yes, except they are
the home team and they are not a short week.
But I have no interest in the game because if
you think I want to be that miserable that the
Jets this week, the answer is now, Okay.
Speaker 2: I like Miami. You guys were talking about it earlier.
Speaker 7: John Murray said a lot of money coming in on
New England, which is very interesting given that Miami is
now minus two and a half. We've done a deep
dive into this, and if you can get an NFL
team under minus two, you're better off taking it on
the money line.
Speaker 2: That does not work at two and a half.
Speaker 7: At minus two and a half, you're better off in
the long run taking laying the points. But I like
Miami here, and I look at it this way. This
is their season, This might be Mike McDaniel's coaching career.
That last week was so bad, so humiliating, so wrong
in every way that if they can't fix it immediately, Lee,
I don't think they continue. So I think Miami has
to give us the best game they can all year,
and they are at home and it's a short price.
And I also like the Pittsburgh Steelers. I'm an emotional
as a handicapper. I look at the emotions of teams,
and this Pittsburgh team has to be coming into this
game feeling really high on themselves. Look, they won last
week miraculous fashion. They're one and oh they're in a
tough division. They have a game that is easily winnable.
And I think Seattle is a shallow themselves. I'm not
a fan of Sam Darnold at all. So there's two bets.
I like Pittsburgh and I like Miami, and both of
those two are in my circa bets. Also, real quick, Aeriel.
The show starts at one pm. The live show that
we're doing starts at one pm today, and yeah, it's
a blast.
Speaker 2: Last week we have had an absolute blast.
Speaker 1: Everyone gets to tune in at one pm Eastern time
to watch end Zone Live betting show. You could see
Prize sweating out all those bets he gave before I
let you go. I know you got to get ready
for the show. Survivor plays today.
Speaker 7: Yeah, so I took Arizona and my Survivor play and
you know, Ariel the Baltimore play for all people in
the circa really freaked me out because anyone who took
Baltimore is now going to get stock having to pick
between green Bay in Detroit, Washington in Dallas, or they're
gonna have to take Cincinnati in Baltimore because Baltimore is
out for Christmas or Thanksgiving.
Speaker 4: Whichever one of those.
Speaker 1: It's Thanksgiving.
Speaker 7: Yeah, So whoever took Baltimore is not thinking about this correctly,
because would you take green Bay going into Detroit? Would
you take Detroit hosting green Bay? Would you take Washington
going into Dallas? Would you take Dallas hosting Washington. No
chance you're taking Cincinnati in Baltimore.
Speaker 2: So ah, I don't get it.
Speaker 7: I try to take a long.
Speaker 1: Term approach with us, so I guess there are people
that take the long term approach. Then they're the people
that take the I just want to survive to that
point approach. That's probably most of the public, the way
that they play it. I know that survivor I know,
like Lyons is probably up there too for some people,
But Arizona is a pretty I like to play, even
though I know the books need the panthers. So good
luck to you.
Speaker 7: Yeah, and one of the guys in the chat room
way back said, who's a better better Gianni or the pres.
Speaker 2: Gianni lives, sleeps, eats, breathe.
Speaker 7: Gianni literally lives betting like nobody I've ever met before
in my life. It's eighteen hours a day. All he
does is study bet I do not. I am a
businessman and I make bets and I'm good at it.
But Gianni Gianni heads Although in NHL I have way
better than Gia, so okay in that one sport.
Speaker 1: But everyone has their sport. I tell Kelly, it's baseball
for me. I could be Kelly and baseball and everything else.
I'll give it to her. Kelly eats, breeds and sleeps
this stuff. Pres. So do you, though, So do you.
We love to have you on here on last call.
Have fun watching those games live with all the audience
at one pm Eastern time. Everyone make sure to tune in.
Good luck today, Thanks.
Speaker 7: Guys, thanks for having me, Thanks for doing the.
Speaker 1: Cereal of course, pres okay, so for me. A few
props that I gave out earlier this week and throughout
the show. Jamiir Gibbs over rushing yards, James Connor over
rushing yards, Travis Kelce under receiving yards. I think Joe
Blacko throws the football a lot in his first game
back at M and T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. There's
obviously analytics and analysis behind all, so if you want
to check it out, you go to the prop Queen
dot com sign up and subscribe to the newsletter, or
you can watch my shows at the prop Queen pod.
I've given out all that info all over the show
best bet right now as of today, I took James
Connor over I think it was sixty three and a half.
I think it's up to sixty eight and a half now,
but I took over sixty three and a half rushing
yards for James Connor earlier this week. He is the
Arizona Cardinals running back getting the Panthers, who I've mentioned
is the worst run d in football dating back to
last year. Travis Dtn just ran for one forty three
last week. James Connor last year underratedly faced four different
teams that were bottom ten against the run, and James
Connor rushed for at least one hundred yards and all
four of those games. They're six and a half point
favorite so if there is a chance they're up, they're
gonna run the ball anyway. Take advantage run down the
Panthers d. The only problem that we'd have with this
is if it is a close game. John Murray said
that the Panthers are in need for their book, so
maybe this game's closer. But James Conner should be able
to run the football well against the Panthers. But if
you don't like that, then Jimi or Gibbs would be
my second favorite over sixty seven and a half rushing yards.
He's also getting a Bears defense that I don't trust
yet against the run either. It looks good last week
against Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones, but we know that
the Lion's backfield is way more versatile and way faster
than those two running backs. The Bears allowed the second
most rushing yards per game to running backs last year,
so I would take advantage of those two running back props.
You can't get the Travis Kelce number anymore at fifty
three and a half. It's now forty nine and a half.
And then I mentioned I think Joe Blackell has to
throw the football a lot to day at M and T.
Banks stadium. It is a very high pass attempts total
thirty seven and a half thirty eight and a half.
So those are my top four props for today. I
probably could give you a fifth. I just have to
go look at the newsletter again to remember exactly what
I gave out. I've also been having some technical difficulties
on my end on my computer today. Let's see a
fifth prop. And we've got Premier Lacrosse Championships, by the way,
coming up in a half hour, So if you want
a PLL play Jared Bernhard over two and a half points.
He had four points in the game winning goal in
overtime last time these two teams played. The Atlasts are
strong against the attack, whereas Bernhardt runs out of the
box and initiates from the top as a midfielder. He
had thirty seven touches and nine shots, which was a
season high in their last matchup. So Jered Bernhard over
two and a half points in Premiere Lacrosse. A few
other plays in the NFL today Cole Comet under nineteen
and a half receiving yards. He had a big catch
for thirty one yards. Last week we had the over
on his longest reception that cashed. But the Bears they
drafted Colston Loveland and he had to catches on two
targets for twelve yards last week, kind of getting his
feet wet. But now you're getting a Lions deep that
allowed the third least forc and third least receiving yards
per game to tight ends, only thirty seven percent of
tight ends when over their receiving yard prop last year
against Detroit. I think coolcomet takes a step back this week,
so I would say under on his receiving yards. Darnell
Mooney is a sleeper ish play slash, a little risky
solely because he missed Week one with the shoulder injury.
He should be playing today. Mooney had the most twenty
plus yard catches for the Falcons last year. He had
twenty one. The next best was Strake London with twelve.
So Darnell Mooney is your deep threat. In Atlanta, the
Vikings allowed the most receptions per game to wide receivers
and second most receiving yards per game to them, So
I trust the amount of touches. Do I trust the
amount of targets that Darnal Mooney will get in his
first game of the year. No, but I do trust
that there's going to be a deep ball thrown to
him and against the secondary, which is more vulnerable than
their pass rush. In Minnesota, Darnell Mooney over nineteen and
a half yards for his longest reception is another play
that I would take a close look at today. That's
it for us here on last call on wager Talk.
I'm the prop Queen Aria Epstein. Thanks so much for
tuning in. We'll see you guys next week. Good luck
for those bets.