Speaker 1: And hello, how are you welcome to the Big Podcast.
Speaker 2: It's Wednesday.
Speaker 1: Today is the twenty fifth day of February, Year of
Our Lord, twenty twenty six. My name is Tom Sullivan.
And well, I know it's it's mostly the news barrels
fall with things from the from the State of the Union.
We've got some latest news about Epstein and Bill Gates.
We've got the shutdown of the government still going on,
partial shutdown. And Gavin Newsom is an interesting cat. He's
in he's running around trying to basically sell himself because
he wants to run for president. So but let's start
with the State of the Union. I don't know what
you thought about it. I did. I did not last Sorry,
it was one hour and forty eight minutes, so I
went to about eleven o'clock on the East coast, and
I just I've never been a fan. I know, in
all the years that I've been in the media, I
know we have to talk about it, but I I
find it. You this was a little different because usually
it's a laundry list of the president asking Congress to
pass this and pass that, and he's got a whole
list of things that he wants Congress to do, and
almost none of them come to fruition. But so I
think it's I think it's one of those things where
I told you yesterday the State of the Union was
required by the President to notify Congress the state of
the Union annually, but it used to be done by
a letter, and I think that would be better served.
President would send a letter over to Congress and say
here's what the State of the Union is. Then nineteen
forty seven, I think it was Harry Truman did the
first televised presidential State of the Union, but it was
during the daytime and there were just a handful of
people who had TV sets, so almost nobody saw it.
And then it just kind of languished until nineteen sixty four,
and even as as John Kennedy was very into television. No,
it was the first evening prime time State of the
Union was nineteen sixty January eighteen sixty five, Lyndon Johnson
was the president, and it got big ratings, and that
was it. That solidified it for every president. Okay, they
get big ratings for the Okay, I got to do
one of those. So and you know Donald Trump, he
loves the camera. He loves camera time, he loves the
Keith Clig lights, he likes all that. So of course
this is his Bailey Wick. But this was a new
record in length one hour forty eight minutes. The speech
was basically to his base, Republicans in general, but specifically
to the Maga folks. And oh and by the way,
the Supreme Court there were four of the nine justices
showed up. John Roberts was there, so was Elina Kagan,
Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett. They were all in
attain attendants and the presidentcy worked his way down to
walk up to the podium. He walked by them and
shook all of their hands. So everything was there was
no there was nothing out of the ordinary. But I
just don't And there were a lot of honors there were.
Ronald Reagan started that it had never done before, but
it was during the eighties when Ronald Reagan, I can't
tell you which one of his State of the Unions,
but he had somebody, one person that was in the
gallery and he made a point of them being there,
and everybody stood and applauded and all that. So they
but they had they had a lot of that last
night and the hockey team. Most of the hockey team
was there and there were a number There was a
soldier that was given the Medal of Honor. There were
a number of really touching moments that the President had
all these people in the gallery. One of them was
the mother of the young lady Irena that was stabbed
to death on the on the light rail train in Charlotte,
and next to her was Erica Kirk. So there's just
a lot of that that went on that was nothing
to do with political policy. It was. There was also
the usual where the Republicans got all the exercise stand up,
sit down, stand up, applause, sit down, stand up, applause,
sit down, and just keep dealing with that. And the Democrats, historically,
the party that's not the president's party, sits on their hands.
But the President made some I mean, he knows what
he's doing. He put them into an awkward position about
just basic things about the beauty of our country, and
they would not stand. I've got a couple of political
observers that are saying that was a bad idea. It
was like last year when they held up their little
placards with their signs and they wouldn't stand up on
a plod for a little boy dying of cancer. Stuff
like that. You go, what's wrong with these democrats? It
makes them look small? I think, so we have. He
came up with some of the ideas that he wants
them to deal with it. Mostly it was about look
what we have achieved, and I think the big message
that I got from it was we inherited a really
terrible situation and in one year we have made a
lot of progress. That was the message that he came
up with. But as far as well, let's just play
this is obviously the president declaringess they usually do the
state of the nation.
Speaker 3: Our nation is back, bigger, better, richer, and stronger than
ever before. In twelve months, my administration has driven core
inflation down to the lowest level in more than five years.
Mortgage rates are the lowest and four years and falling fast,
and the annual costs of a typical new mortgage is
down almost five thousand dollars just since I took office.
Speaker 1: I agree there's improvement, but the rate of inflation, yes,
it did go up to nine percent, but that was
three years ago. In twenty twenty four, when the president
inherited was a three percent. Inflation rate and mortgage rates
have come down, but you've got to use a microscope
to see how much they've moved down. Just a tiny,
tiny little bit. But they're going the right direction. But
there's a lot more work to be done. Jerry Baker,
former head of the Wall Street Journal, had this comment.
Speaker 4: You know, I don't think he did. I think that
I think that he made a lot of good points.
The economy is in reasonably good health. We've talked about
this before. It's not as bad as it was years ago.
Inflation is way down from where it was in the
Biden years. The problem is, though, that a lot of
people are still don't feel the economy is in good safe.
Part of the reason the economy is doing well is
we know this AI boom. This has been amazing for
companies and the wealthy, the better off people in this
country have done extremely well.
Speaker 5: In the last few years. They feel great. That's powering
the economy. A lot of people on like average wages,
don't feel that good. They've had real wage increases, but
they do see these prices that are much higher than
they were. Prices for utility bills, prices for you know,
a lot of food, a lot of their regular their
their staples, they want. I think some indication that the
administration is addressing those concerns.
Speaker 4: I think just saying this is a golden age, never
been better, We're in great shape. I don't think that
comes across to people as it is as if he
is addressing those concerns, and I think more on tax
cuts that he might have in mind, if he could
do that, more on addressing some of these specific worries
that people have about the cost of living. I think
that's what Republicans want.
Speaker 5: To hear more of. If they if they had to
pull out a victory in the midterms and anyway.
Speaker 1: So it was yeah, there's going to be more work
needs to be done, and they've got some time, but
not a lot, and they're hoping and praying that the
big beautiful bill will kick in big time with lower taxes.
And as you and I sit about our annual process
of filing our tax returns, hopefully you'll be surprised that
you will get a bigger refund or a refund that
that you were not expecting. So with that, that's an
extra money in the pocket and maybe you'll go out
and spend it and drive the economy better that that's
what they're hoping for. As far as the Democrats, they
had a bunch of them did not show. I think
the tally we had last night was thirty six did
not go. Some of them didn't. They just stayed at home.
But some of them put on an alternative State of
the Union, I don't know, protest, whatever you want to
call it. Now they put it on two different places.
And this is where you've got to wonder about some
of the people that did this. But they had a
small crowd that gathered to watch the counterprogramming outside it
was thirty three degrees in Washington, and while another crowd
of Democrats they joined a Democrat only State of the
Swamp party over at the National Press Club. Now I've
been to the National Press Club once in my life.
I remember it's really nice. It's a nice club. It's
a club. You got to be a member. They got
a nice restaurant and a really nice restaurant and a
big bar. So for the Democrats that didn't want to
stand out in the thirty three degree weather, they put
on some sort of protest at the National Press Club,
having a nice dinner and drinks. But The stupid part
about it was they had I don't know who who
is behind these ideas. They came up with a bunch
of people dressed in frog costumes and there was a
guy dressed up in a kangaroo outfit. I don't know
who he was. He may have been an officeholder, but
he was in a kangaroo outfit and he was jumping around.
But they had I'm going to guess seven eight nine
people in frog costumes, and I'm not quite sure what
the point was, but this is what they come up
with on the Democrat side of the aisle. Very strange,
so that that was the alternative as far as the
alternative goes. John Fetterman, of course, wasn't for it.
Speaker 6: And half the people in my party haven't showed up,
and then some of them have chosen to just yell
and say and scream during all of it. I just
don't think that's what we want. And I don't believe
as a Democrat, I think like dancing frogs really moves
the ball for us as a party either.
Speaker 1: I don't think anybody did. But there's John Fetterman, common
sense man happens to be a Democrat, but a lot
of Republicans are sure liking that guy a lot. One
other guy who doesn't seem to be getting a lot
of attention, but don't count him out. Rama Manuel. He's
been a congressman, he was a chief of staff or
a part of the Obama administration. He was ambassador to Japan.
He's done a lot of things. Well, Governor, I'm sorry
of Chicago. And he is starting to sound like a
centrist Democrat, which means he's not getting a lot of
attention because he's not a crazy left wing Democrat. This
is what he had to say about what's going on
with his party and the message from the president last night.
Speaker 7: I d I was listening to the speech all one
hour and forty minutes, and I would just say, it's
a tale of Charles Dickens said, a tale of two cities.
It's a tale of two speeches. One he wanted to
tell you everything is great, it's unbelievable, it's a charge
never been better the next three years. And then this
dark side of the speech as he went turned to crime,
turned to immigration, and so with the basket of cultural issues.
And it was a tale of two speeches. And I
do think the latter part was meant to do two things.
One is people have lost sight the president as he's
dropping is dropping also for the first time below ninety
percent among Republicans, And it was an attempt to basically
address Republicans in that effort and really git them up,
because there's across the elections over the last year, Republican
turnout has dropped compared to where Democratic energy is. And
then the economy. I happen to think it's not going
to work convincing people what they don't experience in their
everyday life. Remember you get a utility bill every month
it's up fifteen percent. Telling people everything's going down, everything's great,
just doesn't jive with their reality. First of all, I
go back this all started and the deterioration of the
State of the Union. There's always been theater, going back
to Ronald Reagan when he asked people to be in
the upper gallery. But when Joe Wilson from South Carolina
shouted out at President Obama when I was Chief of
staff that you're a liar. It has been on a
precipitous declined to the point now that it's actually less
State of the Union and more theater and more actually
in my view, very disrespectful on both sides, both of
the president speaker and then the audience there. I think
the Democrats should have shown up, don't play junior varsity
that and listen to the president's remarks and then go
out what they say when you disagreed with and there's
a lot to disagree with. I don't think it helps
the Democrats that said the President was taking them to
play as his backboard to the shot he was taking,
and I don't think you'd give the president that, and
knowing full well this is all political theater for the
public that's watching and stayed at least for an hour
and forty minutes.
Speaker 1: I think his description's pretty good. It is it's become
political theater. And Joe Wilson did start yelling. Ill hand
Omar yelled out at the president, but nobody could really
hear her. And then she was sitting next to Rashida
Talib and she started yelling, but they're kind of drowned
out by I don't know, applause or something. Anyway, you
couldn't barely hear them. But again, it has definitely become
political theater. I was surprised that there was not a
peep out of the President about China. Nothing. I was
also expecting him to do a heavy sales job on tariffs.
He got into a little bit of that he'd mentioned,
but just mentioned that the idea that he would like
to see is for tariffs to replace income taxes. And
my suspicion is is that they're never going to do
away with income taxes, but they may add more tariffs,
which are taxes. It's essentially I've told you that a
thousand times. It's a tax, and when you tax something,
the price of whatever his tax goes up. But anyway,
it's he's talked about this before, and I go, I
think he's dreaming, because let me just give you the
numbers last year, the number of tariffs that were collected
two hundred and sixty four billion. We collected two hundred
and sixty four billion. And by the way, it wasn't
he talked about the tariffs pouring into our country. No,
they're not pouring into the they're coming from our country.
We pay the tariffs. No, not some foreign country. We
pay the tariffs. So we paid two hundred and sixty
four billion. But the total tax revenue for the government,
if you want to replace tax. Income taxes was two
point four trillion. There's a thousand billionaires that will equal
one trillion, So you need two thousand, four hundred billionaires
to pay all their income and that would add up
to it's not going to happen. It's so far off.
And he referred to the fact the country used to
do that. Well, that's true. You know, back in the
eighteen hundreds, we had a much smaller country and the
government did not need a lot of money to run,
so they did run the government off of tariffs and
stamp taxes and things like that. But anyway, I'm surprised
there wasn't a big cell job on teriffs. But again,
the Supreme Court justice is setting right in front of him.
He also mentioned that he's brought this up a couple
times now, that he wants to ban large companies institutional investors,
if you will, from buying single family homes, and I
get what he's doing. He's trying to get it so
that people who want to buy home are not pushed
out of the way by somebody that comes in with
a big corporate checkbook. At the same time, I don't
like the idea of banning anybody from being able to
buy anything. Are we going to start telling this administration.
I'm very surprised because he's it's not a conservative, Republican administration.
It's a populist administration. That's what Donald Trump is. And
I just I'm appalled at how much he wants to
get the government involved in the private sector. The investments
in Intel and Nvidia and all these other places, but
also this going you are not allowed to buy a
particular property that the government is going to tell a
private sector company or person that they can't buy a home.
I get what he's doing, but I'm still I don't
like it. It's they want to pass insider trading rules
for members of Congress. They talked about it for years.
That hasn't happened. They need to pass some sort of
healthcare agenda to try to fix the high cost of
health care in this country. There's all those things. National Review,
which is a conservative magazine, more centrist conservative, they had
a nice summary of it. I'll get just to read
a little pieces of it. They said the economy was
the major focus after discontent over the cost of living.
In twenty twenty four, people are still discontented over the
cost of living. Trump made the case that things are
heading in the right direction. Real wages have indeed been increasing.
They have. Real wages are in other words, wages are
going up more than inflation. The problem is talking people
out of how they feel about the economy is difficult
for an elected official. And the inflation rate, even though
it's down, it's still too high. They wrote, the new
initiatives the President advanced to address the cost of living
are either insignificant or they're not going to pass Congress.
The policy that he has unilateral control. He likes to
think that he can decide on everything was shot down
by the Supreme Court last week. He's got to run
things through through Congress. They also wrote that as a
matter of performance, it often had the feel of a
Trump rally, with its over the top of boastfulness, informal asides,
dubious claims, pointed partisan jabs and sheer length. They said,
for all the sound and occasional fury, nothing from the
address is likely to alter the trajectory of the midterms.
That's the thing about the state of the Union speeches
is there. They don't do anything, they don't mean anything,
They have no impact. And again, whoever wrote the speech.
I'm sorry, I'm sure he wanted longer, but you know
why high school and college classes are one hour long
because we don't have the patience to pay attention for longer.
Sixty minutes is pushing it. So an hour and forty
eight minutes. It was just too long, and I think
it was a lot of people whatever he was said
in the last hour probably weren't either they were either
snoring or they were off doing something else. But so
it was it was interesting. Let's talk about tariffs again,
replacing income taxes. It's not even close. As far as
the economy, the growth of the economy for twenty twenty
five was two point two percent. That is down from
the last year of Joe Biden. Joe Biden's was two
point eight, but the first year of Trump was two
point two. He talked about gas prices being below two dollars.
I checked in with the Triple A and they said
there are fours four gas stations out of one hundred
and fifty thousand that are below two dollars. The average
in the country is two dollars and ninety seven cents.
So this is where you know, you got to be accurate.
You can't be boastful, because then nobody will believe anything
you say. And it goes back to this. You're talking
about the tariffs, the money pouring in from foreign countries,
they're not they're paid for by US. And as far
as investments in the country, the President said there was
eighteen trillion dollars worth of foreign investments, and if you
go to the White House website, it says there's nine
trillion combination of foreign and US companies that are investing
in businesses here in the US, which is a good
number and which should have some impact. JD. Vance was
talking about he was kind of doing the cleanup a
little bit about that. Karl Rove called it that JD
was brought into to the cleanup from the speech last night.
Speaker 8: I think we're about to get over the hump. I
think the tax season is around the corner. A lot
of Americans because of no tax on tips, no tax
on overtime, no tax on Social Security, they're about to
get a massive tax income refund. Those construction jobs are
starting to hit the economy. Then the manufacturing jobs, once
those factories are built, will hit the economy too. So
I think that we've got a lot of momentum here.
Speaker 1: That's Jennie Bans and I applaud what he said. He's
not trying to make up stuff. He's not exaggerating. It's true.
Construction jobs are up, Manufacturing jobs have been down every
single month of twenty twenty five. Now, as he said,
you do the construction, you build factories, then the factory jobs,
the manufacturing jobs will come. He's laying it out exactly
like it probably will take place. So he's optimistic. I'm
pretty optimistic about twenty twenty six as well. Don't know
why you have to exaggerate when actually the data in
front of you is pretty darn good. Let's check in
with Carl Rove, who was asked about the fact that
Kamala Harris is actually playing coy about whether or not
she will run for another shot at president.
Speaker 2: Actually, Republicans could be that lucky. Maybe, I don't know.
Speaker 5: Could Democrats stomach another Paris run?
Speaker 2: They not remember she's the nominee of the Democratic Party
in twenty twenty four. In less than a third of
Democrats say they wanted to be the nominee in twenty
twenty eight. I think it's wide open. It's really early.
We're getting a sense of who these candidates might be.
These polls are completely meaningless. But the Democrats, they have
both talent out there, but they got a wide field.
Think about it. They think about the other people who
want to run. Pritzker, maybe Whitmer, you know, Ram Emmanuel,
the governor of Kentucky.
Speaker 7: Anybody stand out to you there.
Speaker 2: Well, not yet, and I'm not certain they should, but
I do know this. Everyone of these people is giving
off signals that would indicate that they got grave weaknesses.
With maybe the exception of Ram Emmanuel. His weaknesses are
in a primary. The rest of them appear to be
or most of the rest of them appear to be
weaknesses in the general election. I mean, think about it,
she ran a terrible campaign. Gavin Newsom is the governor
of a failed state. You know, the governor of Illinois
first of all, doesn't look like a president, and he's
presiding over a failed state. And you know the sort
of the Bill Clinton types, that is to say, reformers
who've won in read territory. They are people like Prasher,
and it's hard to see somebody like that getting the
Democratic noledge you mentioned.
Speaker 1: Rob Emmanuel is the only one of the group. But
it's not like the rest of them. But he would
have a hard time in the primaries because he's not
far left, crazy lefty. He's a moderate Democrat and that
doesn't cut it with Democrats apparently anymore. Gavin Newsom is
already on the campaign trail. He was in Atlanta talk
to the Mayor of Atlanta at a symposium retreat.
Speaker 9: He is in retreat. This historic president historically unpopular. It's
entire economic policy which was built on a three legged
stool of massive tax breaks for the wealthy and well
to do on the backs of the small businesses and farmers,
and each and every one of us, mass deportations in tariff.
It's all collapsing in real time.
Speaker 1: So is he right? Is it all collapsing? The Trump administration?
The Trump presidential era is all? Is he is the
president collapsing back to Carl.
Speaker 2: That's in his dream. Look, look, there's something interesting here.
The Democrats who, in my opinion, the Democrats who make
this all about Trump, are playing to a wing in
the side of the Democratic Party and that may win
the nomination, but it doesn't set up a win for
the general election. People want to know what the next
president is going to do now. There's plenty of time
for them to develop that image, but you would think
that they would begin to lay that out sooner rather
than later. He's doing it, in my opinion, the reverse way.
What he ought to be doing is saying, here's the
path back to dominance by the Democratic Party, and save
the anti Trump stuff for later.
Speaker 1: Carol knows what he's talking about. I totally agree with
him because Hillary Clinton her campaign was vote for me
because I'm not him. That didn't work. It did not
work in Kamala Harris. There were a lot of problems
with her campaign, but she did the same thing about
I'm not Trump, so vote for me. If they keep
doing the I'm not for Trump anti Trump, Trump is terrible.
That's may get them the nomination, but that won't get
them the general election and get them into the White House.
But let's go back to Gavin Newsom for a minute.
I've been obviously aware. I used to live in California.
I'm aware when he was the mayor of San Francisco
and he was the lieutenant governor in the state and
then went on to governor. We knew that he wanted
to be president someday but I did not know that
he suffers from dyslexia. Back to this symposium in Atlanta.
He's talking to the mayor of Atlanta, who's African American,
and the audience was heavily African American. And a lot
of people are criticizing Newsome because it sounded like he
was trying to say I'm just like you, I'm not
that smart, because he said his SAT scores was a
lousy nine to sixty.
Speaker 5: Listen, no better than you.
Speaker 9: You know, I'm a nine sixty SAT guy.
Speaker 5: Hh.
Speaker 9: And you know, and I'm not trying to offend anyone,
you know, trying to act all there have you got
nine forty, but literally a nine sixty SAT guy. I
cannot You you've never seen me read a speech because
I cannot read a speech.
Speaker 1: Well, that was new. I didn't know that. I know
a lot of people, not a lot. I know a
handful of people that are suffer from dyslexia. And one
of the things I've learned from them, every one of them,
not saying every person with dyslexia has been wildly successful.
The people that I know have been wildly successful and
also suffer from dyslexia, and every one of them. In
private conversations, one on one, they've all told me basically
the same message was I could not read, so I
had to work ten times harder than all the other
kids to be able to get grades and get promoted
through the classes in school. And so I did not
know that Gavin Newsom cannot read. I don't know what
that means for getting everybody must give him reports verbally
on how the state is doing because or they're lying
to him because the state of California is not in
good shape, but it's getting a lot of blowback because
a lot of people are saying Nicki Minaj, for example,
she wrote on her ex account, she said his way
of bonding with black people is to tell them how
stupid he is and that he can't read. This means
my first read on him was correct. He's been handed
so many things and put in high positions he never
earned or deserved. And then added the video from that
conference in Atlanta where she headlines it by saying Governor
Knwsom to a black crowt in Georgia, I am like you.
I'm a nine to sixty sat guy. I can't read,
So she's not happy. Tim Scott also not happy.
Speaker 10: If you've got one president who stands tall, has the
highest level of Black votes in fifty years as a
Republican versus Gavin Newsom, who says they can't read, they
can't ride, they can't score well on tests, they must
need DEI.
Speaker 1: Like Colonel said, it's a long way off before people
start making their decisions. But I've got the feeling that
Gavin Newsom is going to step in it in a
number of ways. He's trying to be somebody. He's trying
to create and craft an image that he's just like you,
and the way he did it is backfiring. So put
that to bed. State of the Union for this year done,
and now we count down to November for the midterms,
and a lot of things will happen between now and then. Meantime,
are you traveling because the government is still partially shut down.
Department of Homeland Security did not get their funding because
the Democrats don't want to give money to ICE, even
though they know ICE has been fully funded through two
thy twenty nine. But they're holding up DHS, which means
the Coastguard, it means the Secret Service, it means TSA,
And I told you yesterday there was confusion over the
weekend that they said, now TSA PreCheck is not going
to be staffed, and a lot of people like me
paid a fee and have the card and find it
to be very valuable to have the pre check benefits.
But they said no, they're not going to staff them.
So they got a lot of heat and so they
turned around reverse their decision and then said, okay, okay, okay,
we'll do TSA PreCheck, but we're not going to do
global entry. And that's for people who have the Global
Entry card, which I do when you come in to customs.
It's for coming in from another country. Global entry. You
get a much faster lane to go through. It's very convenient.
But they said at DHS, no, we're not going to
do global entry. Well, today they caught up with Christy
Nome and had her ask well, they asked her about
TSA pre checked in about global entry. Here's her answer.
Speaker 11: You know, we as we go forward and without funding
for DHS, if we end up in a situation where
these TSA officers ca have to go get other jobs
and provide for their families, will have to prioritize where
the most travelers go through their security checkpoints. So we're
divertized security lanes as we can staff them. So the
ones that use the most travelers, which is the standard lanes,
will be prioritized because most of the traveling public goes
through those lanes.
Speaker 3: Why did you reverse that?
Speaker 11: We ever reversed a decision. We never released this decision.
We just talked about what priorities we'd have to make
if we had the situation where callouts went high.
Speaker 1: You're heard her, She's saying they're going to prioritize the
standard lanes, which means if they're going to have cutbacks,
they're going to cut back the TSA pre check, just
warning you, and they know you didn't know. We didn't
reverse our decision, So you can't believe anything from Christinome anyway.
So that's State of the Union. Other things going on today.
But let's check on Wall Street to see what they
were doing on the stock market today. The Dow had
a good day now up three hundred and seven to
forty nine thousand and four eighty two, price of S
and P five hundred, up fifty six. NASDAK did well
up two hundred eighty eight. Gold up thirteen dollars to
five thousand and eighty nine oil down fifty cents or so,
about sixty five dollars now for a barrel of oil.
So that's it for today. Thank you for coming by.
I'll be back tomorrow. I hope to see you then