1 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:28,960 Speaker 1: And Hi, how are you welcome to the Big Podcast. 2 00:00:29,839 --> 00:00:33,240 It's Thursday. I don't know why I love Thursday. Say 3 00:00:33,399 --> 00:00:37,679 just kind of sneak up on you. It's Thursday, the 4 00:00:37,719 --> 00:00:40,920 seventh day of August, Year of Our Lord, twenty twenty five. 5 00:00:41,039 --> 00:00:48,479 My name is Tom Sullivan. Today's tariff day. Yep, it's 6 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:52,159 the day that all the tariffs go into effect. Kind 7 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:57,679 of maybe, well, I'm not exactly sure. Disregard everything I've 8 00:00:57,719 --> 00:01:00,759 said so far. It's because of the fact they still 9 00:01:01,079 --> 00:01:05,359 keep changing and the President keeps coming up with new 10 00:01:05,439 --> 00:01:09,640 tariffs and new ideas. And there's no question there's a 11 00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:13,599 whole bunch of people apparently in Washington that are jumping 12 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:15,480 up and down trying to keep from having these big 13 00:01:15,519 --> 00:01:18,959 tariffs access to them but looking for exemptions. And that's 14 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:21,799 the other thing the President came up with today is 15 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:27,200 some exemptions. So it's always changing, and that is probably 16 00:01:27,239 --> 00:01:30,760 the biggest complaint that business has, is that we need 17 00:01:30,799 --> 00:01:34,400 to be able to make plans and we can't figure 18 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:36,159 out what our costs are going to be with all 19 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:43,120 the numbers moving around. So we start off, well, let's 20 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:46,560 listen to the President, because he's talking about how he 21 00:01:46,599 --> 00:01:50,799 wants to add some more tariffs, even though you think 22 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:57,000 everything was supposed to be kind of set, but it's not. Well, 23 00:01:57,079 --> 00:01:59,280 let's let the president talk about the new tariffs that 24 00:01:59,280 --> 00:01:59,680 he has. 25 00:02:00,959 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 2: Economy grew at levels that we haven't seen in a 26 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:06,920 long time, but the real levels of growth are going 27 00:02:06,959 --> 00:02:08,960 to be judged in a year from now. We're taken 28 00:02:09,039 --> 00:02:11,840 in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs. We've really 29 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:15,719 just started. This is just in its infancy. So we 30 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:19,360 have a great country. We have a country that is 31 00:02:19,439 --> 00:02:22,800 going to be very rich. It's a country that we're 32 00:02:22,879 --> 00:02:24,639 very proud of, but it's going to be very rich. 33 00:02:26,479 --> 00:02:29,759 Speaker 1: We stop there for a second because he said that 34 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:32,080 this will be judge really a year from now, and 35 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:34,960 I agree with him because how this is going to 36 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:37,560 work because of the fact there's been such a radical 37 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:42,560 transformation in the way of global trade that when you 38 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:49,000 move this much, the big change is radical changes. You 39 00:02:49,159 --> 00:02:52,800 really don't know what the whackamall will be, what will 40 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:55,319 be the results of all this, So I agree with him. 41 00:02:55,680 --> 00:03:00,120 One year from now, which is getting close to midterm election, 42 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:04,280 this is either going to look genius or it's going 43 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:09,159 to be very damaging, depending upon how the tariffs work out. 44 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:13,560 So and the other thing he mentions, and he mentions 45 00:03:13,599 --> 00:03:16,000 it a lot about we've taken in hundreds of billions 46 00:03:16,039 --> 00:03:18,039 of dollars. I don't know if it's been hundreds of billions, 47 00:03:18,039 --> 00:03:21,280 but it's certainly a lot. It's in the billions. So 48 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:26,000 you ever stop to ask yourself, Well, if the government, 49 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:31,120 the treasury is getting checks for hundreds of billions of dollars, 50 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:36,039 who's paying that? Who is writing the check that gets 51 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:42,560 deposited into the US treasury. Generally it is the people 52 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:46,800 that pick up the products from foreign sources on our 53 00:03:46,919 --> 00:03:51,280 docks or at our airports. That's who pays. That's where 54 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:56,919 customs collects the fee. So then the question becomes is 55 00:03:56,960 --> 00:04:03,280 it the company, the wholesaler? Is that maybe the foreign 56 00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:06,360 shipper put a few dollars in on the deal? We 57 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:09,080 don't know yet. And that's why it goes back to Yeah, 58 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:12,520 a year from now we will have a much better feel, obviously, 59 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:16,319 for whether this radical transformation is actually working. But here 60 00:04:16,639 --> 00:04:21,040 here's the president talking about again. He loves tariffs, he 61 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:23,439 loves them. Here's his new idea. 62 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:29,360 Speaker 2: We'll be putting a tariffone of approximately one on chips, 63 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:34,079 and semiconductors. But if you're building in the United States 64 00:04:34,199 --> 00:04:37,600 of America, there's no charge. If you've made a commitment 65 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:39,480 to build, or if you're in the process of building, 66 00:04:39,519 --> 00:04:44,319 as many are, there is no tariff. Okay, if for 67 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:46,639 some reason you say you're building and you don't build, 68 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:50,480 then we go back and get we ended up. It 69 00:04:50,519 --> 00:04:54,240 accumulates and we charge you at a later date. You 70 00:04:54,319 --> 00:04:56,639 have to pay and that's a guarantee. 71 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:01,560 Speaker 1: So there you go. One hundred percent tariff on chip semiconductors. 72 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:07,040 Unless you're saying you're going to build here. I just 73 00:05:07,399 --> 00:05:11,439 cannot believe that a lot of these companies that say 74 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:16,480 they're going to build here are going to build something. 75 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:20,959 But I don't think they are enthused about it. I 76 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:25,560 don't think they're having to change all of their business plans. 77 00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:30,639 It's very upsetting to their balance sheets. So yeah, Tim 78 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:33,160 Cook was in the Oval office last night and doing 79 00:05:33,199 --> 00:05:35,920 all the right things and saying, yeah, we're going to 80 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:37,759 do five hundred billion, Now we're going to do six 81 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:41,600 hundred billion. It's an interesting investment on the part of 82 00:05:41,759 --> 00:05:48,040 Apple because they are going to be building pieces of 83 00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:53,839 what it takes to make an iPhone, for example, Apple 84 00:05:54,079 --> 00:05:57,959 announced that it will spend one hundred billion dollars on 85 00:05:58,959 --> 00:06:04,000 suppliers over the next four years. They're not committing beyond that, 86 00:06:04,439 --> 00:06:08,000 they're just trying to get through the Trump administration. Companies 87 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:11,040 said they would spend as part of that one hundred billion, 88 00:06:11,319 --> 00:06:13,959 two and a half billion to fund a major expansion 89 00:06:14,399 --> 00:06:20,120 with Corning, the big glass company. They make a glass 90 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:23,319 for the iPhones, and they're going to make that glass 91 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:28,680 in Kentucky. The company said its investment would incentivize overseas 92 00:06:28,759 --> 00:06:33,439 companies to buy more US made parts. So this is 93 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:37,120 again they're going to do parts of the phone are 94 00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:41,680 going to be made in the US. And apparently that's well, 95 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:44,279 you don't know, do you. You don't know if that's 96 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:46,160 going to be good enough or if Trump's going to 97 00:06:46,199 --> 00:06:48,959 wake up one morning and say that's not good enough. 98 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:51,279 Therefore we're going to go back and hit you with 99 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:54,199 all these high terraffs. So there's still a lot of 100 00:06:54,759 --> 00:06:57,480 question marks out there about what all of this means. 101 00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:00,920 But again I go back to where where is this 102 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:03,639 money coming from? The hundreds of billions of dollars that 103 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:07,040 he says are being collected. So today being tariff day, 104 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:15,000 we have the tariffs are as follows. Ten percent tariffs 105 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:20,800 on countries in which we have a trade surplus. If 106 00:07:20,839 --> 00:07:25,079 we have a trade surplus, why are we charging them 107 00:07:25,959 --> 00:07:30,319 a ten percent tariff? I don't know either. Then there's 108 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:34,120 a fifteen percent tariff on countries where we have a 109 00:07:34,199 --> 00:07:40,279 trade deficit with them. There's twenty six countries that are 110 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:44,680 that are having tariffs that are higher than fifteen percent. 111 00:07:45,959 --> 00:07:52,199 Sixty plus countries are involved in total the rates that 112 00:07:52,279 --> 00:07:56,399 we are collecting for tariff money. The rates are the 113 00:07:56,560 --> 00:08:00,959 highest since the nineteen thirties. And if your I know 114 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:04,879 most people know about the nineteen thirties was the Great Depression. 115 00:08:06,439 --> 00:08:09,920 If you look up your history on the Great Depression. 116 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:15,560 One of the causes of it wasn't the beginning of 117 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:18,600 the recession, but it took the recession that was already 118 00:08:18,639 --> 00:08:22,240 started and put us into a great depression. Was the 119 00:08:22,279 --> 00:08:26,920 Smoot Hawley Act. The Smoot Holly Act named after Duke Congressman. 120 00:08:27,279 --> 00:08:32,840 I think one senator, one Congressman. And these rates are 121 00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:37,519 higher than Smoot Hallie, and Smoot Hawley is being blamed 122 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:43,679 for basically really driving the Great Depression of the nineteen thirties. 123 00:08:44,679 --> 00:08:47,919 So we're higher the rate Smoot Hawley was a twenty 124 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:51,559 percent tariff. Like I said, We've got twenty six countries 125 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:56,519 above fifteen percent. We've got one hundred percent of the 126 00:08:56,840 --> 00:08:59,799 on the chip makers and things like that, so overall 127 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:03,240 highest rates since the nineteen thirties. That's not a good 128 00:09:03,279 --> 00:09:07,759 measure to try to beat grocery prices. The President, when 129 00:09:07,759 --> 00:09:11,720 he had Tim Cook Cook in the Oval yesterday last night, 130 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:16,559 said prices are coming down. And yet we have story 131 00:09:16,639 --> 00:09:20,879 after story and data after data showing that no, actually 132 00:09:20,879 --> 00:09:25,840 grocery prices are going up. They're not coming down. I mean, 133 00:09:25,919 --> 00:09:29,759 some things may be, but the vast majority of adults 134 00:09:30,919 --> 00:09:36,159 survey by Associated Press are stressed out about grocery prices, 135 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:40,879 and they're talking about the fact that the cost of groceries. 136 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:45,919 Fifty three percent of Americans say that it is cost 137 00:09:45,919 --> 00:09:50,200 of groceries is a major source of stress for them. 138 00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:54,000 Another thirty three percent say it's a minor source of 139 00:09:54,039 --> 00:09:58,080 stress for them. Only fourteen percent say that's no stress 140 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:01,399 at all. So we've got eighty six percent of the 141 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:07,320 population going grocery prices are stressing them out. So we've 142 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:13,799 got that. We've also got taxes to talk about. Before 143 00:10:13,799 --> 00:10:15,759 we get to that, let me get to the census, 144 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:20,080 because the President is also interested in the census. And 145 00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:22,399 it goes back to last week when the jobs report 146 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:26,639 came out. And we've talked about this before, but I'll 147 00:10:26,639 --> 00:10:32,039 go over it again. Part of the Jobs Report is 148 00:10:32,159 --> 00:10:37,679 created by the Establishment Survey. It's really easy. That's just 149 00:10:37,759 --> 00:10:42,159 simply employers sending in their payroll taxes that they've collected 150 00:10:42,159 --> 00:10:46,200 from their employees, and it has all those reports. It 151 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:51,039 has everybody in the company's name, social Security number, how 152 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:54,480 much they were paid, and the taxes that were withheld. 153 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:59,039 So it's really a cut and dry number. The problem 154 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:04,480 with the Jobs report is the household Survey, and that's 155 00:11:04,519 --> 00:11:12,440 sixty thousand households that are interviewed by the Census Bureau. 156 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:16,799 The Census Bureau is the one where the problem is 157 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:20,840 and it used to be in a different department of Labor, 158 00:11:20,879 --> 00:11:24,519 but now it's in the in the Executive Office. Obama 159 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:26,240 brought it in. One of the first things he did 160 00:11:26,679 --> 00:11:30,360 was brought the Census Bureau into the White House. And 161 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:35,519 so with that they are doing their surveys of they 162 00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:38,159 get not only people that are employed. When they call 163 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:42,320 your house and they say are you working? And you 164 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:45,639 answer yes or no, And if you say no, they 165 00:11:45,639 --> 00:11:48,639 say have you have you looked for a job in 166 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:51,720 the last four weeks. So it's a way for them 167 00:11:51,759 --> 00:11:55,399 to pick up not only the unemployed, but how long 168 00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:58,440 the unemployed have been without a job. So there's a 169 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:02,360 lot that goes on there. Trump wants to have a 170 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:05,720 revamp of the Census Bureau, and I'm right there with them. 171 00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:10,720 It is they're using nineteen fifties technology. Remember they came 172 00:12:10,799 --> 00:12:14,960 up with the socials or the retirement files for federal 173 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:19,039 employees is in some cave in Pennsylvania. This is kind 174 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:21,039 of the same thing. They're doing, the same thing they've 175 00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:24,240 been doing since the nineteen fifties, and as a result, 176 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:27,320 they're not getting this. They used to get sixty five 177 00:12:27,399 --> 00:12:31,200 percent response rate, Now they're getting about forty percent. So 178 00:12:31,279 --> 00:12:36,799 you're getting lousy numbers on all of that. Brad Todd, 179 00:12:37,039 --> 00:12:41,279 Republican strategist, talks about the fact that they've been wrong 180 00:12:41,919 --> 00:12:46,919 for quite some time, especially back in twenty twenty. That's 181 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:47,879 the Census Bureau. 182 00:12:48,039 --> 00:12:50,320 Speaker 3: Well, all these things go together, right, We're stopping tax 183 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:52,759 increases from go kicking in at the end of the year. 184 00:12:52,799 --> 00:12:55,600 Republicans are there's a deregulation agenda that the President has 185 00:12:55,639 --> 00:12:57,840 put in place, and ideally we'll get a rate cut 186 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:01,519 from Jerome Powell, and all these things have to come together. 187 00:13:01,919 --> 00:13:04,279 I see this latest round of tariffs though, as a 188 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:08,120 straight up Russia play for the Ukraine War. India was 189 00:13:08,159 --> 00:13:10,559 buying less than one percent of its oil from Russia. 190 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:15,159 Now it's forty percent. India is basically the profiting sidecar 191 00:13:15,639 --> 00:13:17,320 for the Russia war in Ukraine, and a lot of 192 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:20,360 the President's critics have been have faulted him for not 193 00:13:20,399 --> 00:13:22,279 being tough enough on Russia. Well, if you want to 194 00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:25,519 stop Russia and Ukraine, you cut off their oil customers, 195 00:13:25,639 --> 00:13:28,080 and punishing India is the best and fastest way to 196 00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:28,399 do it. 197 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:31,200 Speaker 1: So to the Census Bureau and the fact that they 198 00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:34,720 have been inaccurate even taking the census. 199 00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:37,440 Speaker 3: We know the twenty twenty Census, the errors were almost 200 00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:40,360 always to the detriment of red states Blue states like 201 00:13:40,399 --> 00:13:42,720 Rhode Island. We do know that the Census Bureau's own 202 00:13:42,759 --> 00:13:45,200 audit of its work has proven that Blue states like 203 00:13:45,279 --> 00:13:48,320 Rhode Island were overcounted. Rhode Island then doesn't didn't lose 204 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:51,559 a seat red states like Alabama were undercounted. They said, 205 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:54,200 this is just a fact. It wasn't all red blue, 206 00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:58,360 but it was disproportionately red. The census not counting illegal people. 207 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:01,799 He was focus on that and about the prior census 208 00:14:01,879 --> 00:14:04,879 as well. But reapportionment for twenty thirty is going to 209 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:07,759 change the map. After the twenty thirty census, there will 210 00:14:07,799 --> 00:14:09,679 be a lot more seats moving to red states, a 211 00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:11,639 lot of states moving away from blue states. That's going 212 00:14:11,639 --> 00:14:13,799 to impact the electoral college. It's going to make it 213 00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:15,960 much tougher for Democrats to win the White House in 214 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:16,639 twenty thirty two. 215 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:18,720 Speaker 1: I don't think you need the Census Bureau to tell 216 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:22,159 you that the population is moving away from the snow 217 00:14:22,159 --> 00:14:25,519 Belt and the rust Belt and down to the sun Belt, 218 00:14:25,679 --> 00:14:29,320 and so the southern states, the Southwest, all of that 219 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:33,200 is where the population's moving, and that is in Texas 220 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:39,759 primarily booming. And it's going to lead to more red 221 00:14:39,799 --> 00:14:43,120 states having more congressional seats. It's going to make it 222 00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:46,519 much more difficult for the Democrats to try to win 223 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:50,759 in the electoral college. Let's check in with Karl Rove, 224 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:54,279 who's in Texas and knows Texas like the back of 225 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:56,919 his hand. Well, his idea is about all of what's 226 00:14:56,960 --> 00:15:01,639 going on with them. Well, there's Democrats. They're going to 227 00:15:01,679 --> 00:15:04,039 be first of all, let's admit they're going to be 228 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:07,000 consequences for both parties as a result of what's happening 229 00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:11,080 in Texas. Then neither party will like Yes, the Democrats 230 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:13,759 are going to try and do something in all likelihood, 231 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:19,000 they say in California, but they've got a constitutional requirement 232 00:15:19,039 --> 00:15:21,960 that the lions are drawn by a commission. So Governor 233 00:15:22,039 --> 00:15:24,879 Newsom would need to first get legislation through his very 234 00:15:24,919 --> 00:15:28,039 pliant Democratic legislature, which he can do. But then he 235 00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:30,399 would have to go to the voters in November and 236 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:35,919 get them to retroactively remove the provision from the constitution 237 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:40,480 and validate his plan. And that's a very big uphill climb. 238 00:15:40,799 --> 00:15:44,320 New York Governor Hockle says, all's fear and love and war, 239 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:48,440 and we're going to retaliate. But her constitution prohibits them 240 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:53,720 from mid decade redistricting, and so hard for us to 241 00:15:53,759 --> 00:15:56,840 see how that gets done. Now, can Maryland step in 242 00:15:57,000 --> 00:16:00,879 maybe and by legislation make it take away the one 243 00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:04,559 Republican seat in the state. Yes, but there are not 244 00:16:04,639 --> 00:16:06,440 a lot of places where you can see a clear 245 00:16:06,519 --> 00:16:09,320 path of the Democrats picking up a number of seats 246 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:12,759 to counter what might happen in Texas, a gain of 247 00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:15,600 four or five. And remember, while we talked about five 248 00:16:15,639 --> 00:16:19,159 seats in Texas, one of those seats requires the Republicans 249 00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:23,559 to beat a popular, albeit troubled Democratic incumbent who ran 250 00:16:23,679 --> 00:16:28,080 six points ahead of Kamala Harris last fall, and as 251 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:32,159 one of the thirteen people who thirteen Democrats who want 252 00:16:32,159 --> 00:16:35,960 a seat that Donald Trump carry. It's messaging, but it's 253 00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:39,440 not reality. The census is a very complicated process that 254 00:16:39,559 --> 00:16:42,639 takes ten years to do. Remember this involves knocking on 255 00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:46,360 the door of every home in America or getting a 256 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:50,080 document back from every home in America in order to 257 00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:52,440 draw these lines. I mean, I think the White House 258 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:55,399 was also implying, which is accurate, that Texas is a 259 00:16:55,519 --> 00:17:00,480 rapidly growing state. We will we will gain several more seats. 260 00:17:00,519 --> 00:17:02,759 We've got thirty eight today. We will probably be at 261 00:17:02,799 --> 00:17:07,400 forty one forty two seats after the next redistricting that 262 00:17:07,559 --> 00:17:12,519 happens after the next census occurs in twenty thirty. But look, 263 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:16,799 that's a conversation that's not reality. There's no way that 264 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:19,880 between now and the twenty sixth election that you could 265 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:23,759 conduct another census be accurate in the outcome. Hand the 266 00:17:23,839 --> 00:17:26,559 numbers over to the states, go through the process of 267 00:17:26,599 --> 00:17:29,240 writing a plan, have it approved by the states, have 268 00:17:29,319 --> 00:17:32,720 it approved by the courts, implement it, recruit candidates, have 269 00:17:32,799 --> 00:17:35,720 them run campaigns, and get elected. It is way too 270 00:17:35,759 --> 00:17:39,039 short a timeframe for that to happen. It's hard enough 271 00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:41,880 when you have when this happens in the first year 272 00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:45,279 after the census is conducted, for example, in twenty twenty 273 00:17:45,319 --> 00:17:47,559 one for the last time, in order to be ready 274 00:17:47,559 --> 00:17:50,759 for the twenty twenty two election. It takes all of 275 00:17:50,799 --> 00:17:53,319 those nearly two years to get it done. There's no 276 00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:56,039 way that it can get done in my opinion, between 277 00:17:56,039 --> 00:18:00,279 now and the twenty twenty twenty twenty sixth election. Once 278 00:18:00,279 --> 00:18:03,640 that changed what we've been used to forever since us 279 00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:08,839 every ten years, and then redistricting based on that. Karl Rove, 280 00:18:09,079 --> 00:18:14,519 you have any trepidations about what's going on in Texas, Yes, 281 00:18:14,559 --> 00:18:14,920 there is. 282 00:18:15,039 --> 00:18:17,000 Speaker 4: I mean I think that that you know, once you 283 00:18:17,279 --> 00:18:20,240 once you break down the norm, uh that this starts 284 00:18:20,279 --> 00:18:23,240 to happen. And remember both sides have done this. I 285 00:18:23,319 --> 00:18:27,359 remember well when Eric Holder, the Attorney General under Barack Obama, 286 00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:29,839 under what I think and what lawyers told me was 287 00:18:29,839 --> 00:18:34,079 a relatively uh you know, thin legal covering, demanded the 288 00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:37,160 North Carolina Redistrict in the middle of the of the 289 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:41,119 decade in order to kill in essence, two Democratic seats, 290 00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:45,599 actually two Republican seats, and replace them with Democrats. Let's 291 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:48,799 let me close by one note. What does the Texas 292 00:18:49,519 --> 00:18:54,119 effort do. It creates two black majority congressional districts, first 293 00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:56,440 time in the history of Texas. Isn't that a goal 294 00:18:56,519 --> 00:18:59,559 of the Voting Rights Act? It creates an eighth Hispanic 295 00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:03,240 majority district, albeit one that's a Republican and it does 296 00:19:03,279 --> 00:19:06,960 so without being involving themselves in these goofy lines like 297 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:11,519 that we see in Illinois that you know, in which 298 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:15,119 there's a deliberate attempt to spit into to go hundreds 299 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:17,640 of miles across the state in order to link together 300 00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:20,519 pockets of one party's supporters in order to get a 301 00:19:20,519 --> 00:19:23,039 congressional seat that it wouldn't otherwise have if it was 302 00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:26,759 relatively compact and community of interest. So if they're doing 303 00:19:26,759 --> 00:19:30,160 this in Texas, and who knows where else they're going 304 00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:34,000 to go. Have you seen this story about they want 305 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:38,119 to build a nuke plant on the Moon, And I'm going, 306 00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:41,720 what I know people talked about, you know, inhabiting the 307 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:45,319 Moon someday. I don't know about you. I have no 308 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:48,119 interest in living on the Moon. I don't know. 309 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:52,119 Speaker 1: If you live in the desert, maybe you could handle 310 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:55,279 the Moon. I don't live in the desert. I like 311 00:19:55,519 --> 00:19:58,119 green freeze and things like that. And last time I checked, 312 00:19:58,279 --> 00:20:02,759 mister Moon doesn't have any green tree. So Miles O'Brien 313 00:20:03,799 --> 00:20:06,640 was asked he's an aviation guy, and he was asked 314 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:10,839 about what's the deal with putting a nuke plant on 315 00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:11,279 the Moon. 316 00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:14,680 Speaker 5: Well, you do need nuclear power if you're going to 317 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:18,240 have an encampment on the Moon, because the nighttime on 318 00:20:18,279 --> 00:20:21,480 the Moon lasts two weeks and solar is just not 319 00:20:21,519 --> 00:20:23,440 going to do it for you if you really want 320 00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:25,559 to put people on there and have them live. There's 321 00:20:25,599 --> 00:20:29,079 a nuclear reactor that he's fast tracking for an encampment 322 00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:33,200 that doesn't exist, and without the capability of even putting 323 00:20:33,279 --> 00:20:36,519 a single footprint on the surface of the planet. 324 00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:39,079 Speaker 6: It's a little bit the cart before the horse. But 325 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:44,480 given the context, the geopolitical context, with Russia and China 326 00:20:44,839 --> 00:20:48,160 talking about doing the same. The idea here might be 327 00:20:48,319 --> 00:20:52,079 to create a so called exclusion zone on the Moon, 328 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:57,200 because you can't actually declare a sovereign turf on the Moon, 329 00:20:57,599 --> 00:21:00,640 but you could say we have a nuclear power facility 330 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:04,720 and put up a no trespassing sign. Essentially, it's hard 331 00:21:04,759 --> 00:21:07,680 to say, but this is certainly a strange cart Before 332 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,039 the horse moment, you have to consider the fact that 333 00:21:10,079 --> 00:21:13,680 there are technical problems with the rockets that they envision 334 00:21:13,839 --> 00:21:17,599 getting astronauts there, both the government rocket, the Space launch 335 00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:22,079 System Artemis and Elon Musk SpaceX starship, which has not 336 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:25,640 yet flown a successful flight, which is integral to that 337 00:21:25,839 --> 00:21:29,319 last step to get from the orbit moon of the 338 00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:33,200 Moon down to the surface. None of these transportation systems 339 00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,279 have been proven out yet, so to say we'd have 340 00:21:35,559 --> 00:21:39,160 a nuclear power facility there in that time frame is 341 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:40,119 not realistic. 342 00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:44,000 Speaker 1: Well, that's too bad to hear, because I mean, if 343 00:21:44,039 --> 00:21:47,279 the Texas legislators wanted to leave again because they didn't 344 00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:51,920 like the way things were going in their legislature, I'd 345 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:54,000 love to see them go to the Moon. Give them 346 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:57,079 a place up there. People leave them alone. Nobody bothers them. 347 00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:59,519 They got their new plant for the power so they 348 00:21:59,519 --> 00:22:02,240 can turn their their lights on it at the on 349 00:22:02,319 --> 00:22:05,839 the two week night that the moon takes I'm looking 350 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:08,519 forward to it. I think so are the Texas legislators. 351 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:14,319 But before we go away from from Texas, this is 352 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:19,440 definitely moving into the courts. It's crazy. The governor Governor 353 00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:24,200 abbot of Texas has asked the Texas Supreme Court to 354 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:31,920 oust the Democrat leader, Jean Wu. I don't I'll leave 355 00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:35,720 this to the courts, but I can't imagine that the 356 00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:39,799 Democrats who elected him to be their leader. I don't 357 00:22:39,839 --> 00:22:45,839 think that he doesn't work for the governor. Representatives are 358 00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:51,079 not employees of the state of Texas, nor members of Congress. 359 00:22:51,079 --> 00:22:55,119 Elected officials are not employees or wherever the city council. No, 360 00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:58,000 they're not employees of the city. They are. They work 361 00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:02,319 for their constituents. That's who they work for. We are 362 00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:07,319 their bosses and we are not going to go fire them. 363 00:23:08,799 --> 00:23:13,880 So we'll see how this works out. But it's also 364 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:18,839 stupid they are you know how this story ends. Not 365 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,119 only have we seen the movie before, but we also 366 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:29,160 vacating Texas will only end in them coming back and 367 00:23:29,839 --> 00:23:33,880 being out of Texas will just delay the inevitable. But 368 00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:35,559 I guess they have nothing else to do in the 369 00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:41,720 month of August, but a mere delay in Texas legislative 370 00:23:41,759 --> 00:23:46,720 history is the likely outcome. They've also asked Texas lawmen 371 00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:50,759 to go round them up, but that won't work. The 372 00:23:50,839 --> 00:23:54,400 law officials, the law enforcement people in Texas don't have 373 00:23:54,480 --> 00:24:00,200 police powers outside of Texas. And they're talking about in 374 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:04,279 the FBI. John Cornyn, congressman from Texas, said, oh yeah, 375 00:24:04,319 --> 00:24:08,880 he's talked to the FBI about helping them find the 376 00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:13,119 Texas legislators. And he didn't say go arrest him or 377 00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:16,079 do orn heils, just go find We know where they are. 378 00:24:16,279 --> 00:24:21,519 They're in a hotel about twenty five miles west of Chicago, 379 00:24:22,559 --> 00:24:24,599 so it's not like we don't know where they are. 380 00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:29,559 Nobody can arrest them from Texas. They're going to come back. 381 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:34,839 Just let them sit there and look silly the very least. 382 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:39,519 What else do we have for you today, Oh, Joe Biden. 383 00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:42,680 One of the things that's going on with that committee, 384 00:24:43,759 --> 00:24:47,599 in the Oversight Committee, the committee members, the members of Congress, 385 00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:51,640 they went home, but the staffers have to stay and 386 00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:56,920 the staffers are still continuing to bring in former Biden officials, 387 00:24:57,279 --> 00:24:59,759 the top officials. I think there's nine of them that 388 00:24:59,799 --> 00:25:03,960 they have subpoenaed. Have you noticed something strange going on? Today? 389 00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:08,640 Anita Done showed up and she was in there for 390 00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:11,720 a couple of three hours. So they're asking a lot 391 00:25:11,759 --> 00:25:15,440 of questions of these people. But the first couple of 392 00:25:15,759 --> 00:25:20,559 staffers that went in there, the doctor, doctor Kevin O'Connor. Well, 393 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:25,799 so anyway, they were taking the Fifth Amendment. Doctor Jill's 394 00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:29,920 right hand guy took the fifth Amendment. Nobody since has 395 00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:33,640 taken the fifth you know what they're doing. Instead, they're 396 00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:38,519 telling the staff members of the oversight committee, Now, Joe 397 00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:41,720 was fine. Yeah, I mean I Needa Done said, well, 398 00:25:41,759 --> 00:25:45,319 he physically aged a lot, but I mean all presidents do. 399 00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:51,599 But he was certainly capable of decision making. And that's 400 00:25:51,599 --> 00:25:53,640 what they're all saying. So this is going to turn 401 00:25:53,680 --> 00:26:00,000 out to be once again a congressional nothing, nothing burger. 402 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,720 They're all saying, yeah, j he was Joe. Oh, Okay, 403 00:26:02,759 --> 00:26:06,200 he got older and all that, but he was fine. 404 00:26:06,519 --> 00:26:09,720 So the others are not taking the fifth they're just 405 00:26:09,839 --> 00:26:14,880 making the story up and saying that Joe was perfectly fine. 406 00:26:15,039 --> 00:26:19,359 It's their opinion. You can't charge them with a crime 407 00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:27,359 for their opinion. What else today, Oh well, we have 408 00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:33,079 let me get to the economy. We had the Job's 409 00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:36,440 Report out every Thursday morning, and the Job's report came 410 00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:40,400 in two hundred twenty six thousand first time jobless claims. 411 00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:44,480 That was up from estimate of two hundred and twenty 412 00:26:44,519 --> 00:26:48,720 one thousand, So the jobless claims going up a little bit. 413 00:26:48,759 --> 00:26:51,559 The continuing jobless claims these are the ones of people 414 00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:55,039 more than just more than the first time. They keep 415 00:26:55,079 --> 00:26:58,519 going back every week, week after week after week. That 416 00:26:58,799 --> 00:27:03,279 number went up thirty eight thousand. It's now at one million, 417 00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:08,839 nine hundred and seventy thousand people are collecting unemployment benefits 418 00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:14,880 and that number is continuing to climb. Second quarter productivity 419 00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:18,000 went up up to two point four percent. It was 420 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,759 estimated to be two two point zero. And as you 421 00:27:21,839 --> 00:27:25,720 get more productivity, think of it as you got work 422 00:27:25,759 --> 00:27:29,720 to do in the factory to make widgets. And if 423 00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:33,759 you lay off people, you've got less people making the 424 00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:37,880 same number of widgets. They've got to still get those 425 00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:40,960 widgets out the door, which means the employees that are 426 00:27:41,079 --> 00:27:46,599 left working are more productive because they're getting more stuff 427 00:27:46,599 --> 00:27:49,920 out the door. So productivity went up, but I always 428 00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:52,240 look at it with a little bit of a jaundiced eye. 429 00:27:52,799 --> 00:27:55,839 Labor cost unit labor costs one point six percent, that's 430 00:27:55,960 --> 00:28:01,480 up slightly. Federal Funds rate. What the market thinks about 431 00:28:01,519 --> 00:28:05,960 interest rates. The Federal funds rate shows that the market 432 00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:09,640 believes that the FED will cut interest rates. Ninety one 433 00:28:09,759 --> 00:28:13,160 percent chance that they will cut interest rates at their 434 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:18,160 mid September meeting. Bed the Federal Funds rates predicts that 435 00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:21,240 there's a sixty two percent chance that the Fed will 436 00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:25,799 also cut in their late October meeting and a fifty 437 00:28:25,839 --> 00:28:29,599 two percent chance that they will cut in their December meetings. 438 00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:32,799 So Wall Street is betting that the Fed is going 439 00:28:32,839 --> 00:28:35,640 to start cutting interest rates because there are more and 440 00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:40,400 more signs that the job market is softening and the 441 00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:44,839 economy is slowing, not a lot, but it's slowing just enough. 442 00:28:45,759 --> 00:28:48,160 And with the tariffs coming and starting to kick in, 443 00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:52,880 all of this is making some concern on Wall Street. 444 00:28:53,559 --> 00:28:55,519 There are a number of firms now that are telling 445 00:28:56,039 --> 00:29:01,000 their clients to get ready for a big correction. I 446 00:29:01,039 --> 00:29:05,119 mean they're literally putting that out in writing. You get 447 00:29:05,119 --> 00:29:07,640 ready for a big correction. I mean, they can't predict 448 00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:10,960 the future. But that's some of the verbiage coming out 449 00:29:11,039 --> 00:29:18,000 from the folks on Wall Street. Let's look at our emails. Okay, 450 00:29:18,079 --> 00:29:23,279 let me read through some of these. This is from Lawrence. 451 00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:26,720 Lawrence says, I enjoy your podcast, short and sweet, to 452 00:29:26,759 --> 00:29:29,160 the point. I've been listening to your show for years. 453 00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:34,759 I live in the Bay Area. My recommendation a bit 454 00:29:34,799 --> 00:29:37,519 more diverse topics. What I do not have a clue, 455 00:29:37,559 --> 00:29:40,599 but keep going. I send them back a note saying 456 00:29:40,599 --> 00:29:43,039 thanks for the feedback. I agree on the more diverse topics. 457 00:29:43,039 --> 00:29:46,279 No excuse, but the news is in the dog days 458 00:29:46,319 --> 00:29:51,240 of summer, and it's limited, and I mean another day 459 00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:55,200 of Texas lawmakers and tariffs and Epstein and I understand, 460 00:29:56,079 --> 00:29:58,680 but we really don't usually get a lot of variety 461 00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:01,240 in what's going on in the news barrel until we 462 00:30:01,279 --> 00:30:07,160 get past labor day. But I appreciate the email. What 463 00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:09,359 else we got here? Let me look down here? Oh, 464 00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:15,559 here's John says. Trump calls India. India calls Putin, tells 465 00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,640 him they want to keep purchasing their cheap oil. Is 466 00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:23,359 money more important to Putin than obtaining Ukraine. I'm guessing 467 00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:26,559 that's why he's going to the table. Yeah. That meetings 468 00:30:26,839 --> 00:30:30,519 apparently on next week. Another one from John, I got 469 00:30:30,559 --> 00:30:34,559 two of them, says with the Illinois Shenanigan, wouldn't it 470 00:30:34,559 --> 00:30:36,640 be great if politicians had a lot of obey for 471 00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:39,559 the use of all the funds for political purposes and 472 00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:43,240 like their salaries, a budget to limit all their campaign 473 00:30:43,319 --> 00:30:48,759 contributions and expenditure to office. John the Dreamer, Yeah, you know, 474 00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:51,200 and John, the thing is is that a question was 475 00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,359 brought up. I had to look it up last time. 476 00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:58,039 The Texas legislators took off and left. They got their 477 00:30:58,079 --> 00:31:02,119 per diem per day. It's two hundred and seventy one 478 00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:06,200 dollars or something like that per day. Penny sends me 479 00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:11,480 an email about a survey. I was going over the 480 00:31:11,559 --> 00:31:15,319 whole business about how they forecast, how they come up 481 00:31:15,359 --> 00:31:17,559 with the unemployment numbers, and I explained to her the 482 00:31:18,039 --> 00:31:22,119 two methods, one using monthly employment reports, the other one 483 00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:26,160 using a survey that's done nineteen fifty style. And so 484 00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:29,480 she wants she wants them to shake this up. And 485 00:31:29,559 --> 00:31:34,440 Donald Trump did announce today he wants he wants to 486 00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:38,640 modernize the census Bureau. It's about time, it really is. 487 00:31:39,119 --> 00:31:43,839 So President's with you. Oh, Paul Skaggs writes, I wonder 488 00:31:44,359 --> 00:31:47,799 where they get their numbers to make their adjustments. The 489 00:31:47,839 --> 00:31:51,119 headline of the email is bls. Well, they get it 490 00:31:51,119 --> 00:31:54,039 from themselves, because they go out on the survey and 491 00:31:54,079 --> 00:31:56,920 they try to reach sixty thousand households and they're not 492 00:31:56,960 --> 00:31:59,319 doing a good job of it, so they keep going 493 00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:02,640 and that's why we get three reports at the end 494 00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:06,440 of the month. Within the first few days, at first 495 00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:09,440 Friday of the month following, they come up with their 496 00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:12,960 first look. Then they always adjust those numbers, but not 497 00:32:13,079 --> 00:32:15,960 like the numbers that they've been adjusting lately. So they 498 00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:19,200 adjust them thirty days letter because later later, because they've 499 00:32:19,559 --> 00:32:22,799 had more input, they've reached more people. And then finally 500 00:32:22,839 --> 00:32:26,880 thirty days after that they get the final final print, 501 00:32:27,039 --> 00:32:30,640 as we say, of what the unemployment numbers were for 502 00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:34,720 what was essentially three months prior. So they get them 503 00:32:34,839 --> 00:32:37,960 simply by continuing to bang on the door of the 504 00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:41,920 people that they're supposed to be taking the survey from. 505 00:32:42,279 --> 00:32:45,920 That's where they get their numbers. On Wall Street today, 506 00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:51,119 let's see, Oh, we started off up three hundred. I 507 00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:57,000 think it was, and we finished down two hundred down 508 00:32:57,000 --> 00:33:03,160 two hundred forty three, nine sixty eight, SMP down five, 509 00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:06,240 Nasdaq up seventy three, So a little bit of a 510 00:33:06,279 --> 00:33:09,839 mixed market. Price of gold today up forty nine dollars 511 00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:13,480 to thirty four eighty two, and oil back and forth. 512 00:33:13,519 --> 00:33:16,799 We go down fifty cents a day to sixty three 513 00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:19,720 dollars and some change for a barrel of oil. So 514 00:33:19,839 --> 00:33:22,519 that's it for today. Thank you for coming by. Hope 515 00:33:22,799 --> 00:33:25,759 we'll see you back here. It's Friday tomorrow. Hope to 516 00:33:25,799 --> 00:33:26,319 see you then.