WEBVTT 1 00:00:04.839 --> 00:00:08.359 With Laurent's segle and from London and Gerard Reed from Berlin. 2 00:00:08.880 --> 00:00:10.640 This is redefining energy. 3 00:00:11.359 --> 00:00:14.519 Happy new Year, Gerard, Happy new year, my friend got 4 00:00:14.519 --> 00:00:17.440 to see you. And of course we have for predictions 5 00:00:17.879 --> 00:00:20.640 Michael Barnard. Happy new Year, Michael. 6 00:00:20.760 --> 00:00:21.920 Happy new year to both of you. 7 00:00:22.559 --> 00:00:23.719 Yeah, looking forward to this. 8 00:00:24.480 --> 00:00:28.039 Well, first, as usual, we take our six predictions from 9 00:00:28.120 --> 00:00:31.039 last year and see who fair the best and who 10 00:00:31.320 --> 00:00:34.640 to't really missed it. Probably I'm going to jump right in. 11 00:00:35.759 --> 00:00:41.240 The first prediction is Stellentis will outsource his EV production 12 00:00:41.359 --> 00:00:41.880 in China. 13 00:00:42.439 --> 00:00:45.200 So who did this one? That was me? Can you 14 00:00:45.320 --> 00:00:46.240 elaborate a bit? 15 00:00:47.159 --> 00:00:49.200 Well? I think I did pretty well on this one. 16 00:00:49.320 --> 00:00:52.640 It didn't actually start. One of the things I had 17 00:00:52.640 --> 00:00:54.479 a thought on was he was going to put Prugio 18 00:00:54.600 --> 00:00:57.240 and Renault brands in the like stable of brands on 19 00:00:57.359 --> 00:01:00.000 Chinese medivs and stop pretending to be a man inside. 20 00:01:00.479 --> 00:01:04.000 What it actually did was establish a joint venture with 21 00:01:04.159 --> 00:01:09.159 Leap Motor, and it's actually importing Leap Motor branded vehicles 22 00:01:09.359 --> 00:01:12.920 into Europe. The second thing it's doing it's actually established 23 00:01:12.920 --> 00:01:15.640 a joint venture with CATL and it's going to be 24 00:01:15.760 --> 00:01:19.239 established a battery gigafactory in northeastern Spain, where it has 25 00:01:19.280 --> 00:01:22.359 a bunch of plants and about a million people in 26 00:01:22.439 --> 00:01:28.840 the ecosystem, unlike Northfolk's location and eighty percent decarbonized electricity 27 00:01:29.280 --> 00:01:32.359 with a Spain's industrial policy which is actually reducing the 28 00:01:32.439 --> 00:01:35.680 cost of industrial electricity as well. So it's actually got 29 00:01:35.760 --> 00:01:38.840 has many more of the conditions for success Northfolk did. 30 00:01:39.120 --> 00:01:41.640 So I'm feeling pretty comfortable that I got it close. 31 00:01:42.000 --> 00:01:43.719 Didn't think Tnaris was. 32 00:01:43.680 --> 00:01:46.079 Going to go though, I am totally witches. 33 00:01:46.760 --> 00:01:50.200 Yeah, you also should have predicted that the shares of 34 00:01:50.319 --> 00:01:54.159 Stanislos last year, so I would have been able to 35 00:01:54.200 --> 00:01:56.120 shot them. 36 00:01:56.480 --> 00:01:57.959 So off my skill set. 37 00:01:58.200 --> 00:02:00.280 If I'm going to go mark out a five, If 38 00:02:00.480 --> 00:02:03.959 I'm gonna give him a four L five, okay, I'm 39 00:02:03.959 --> 00:02:06.439 gonna do because he definitely got and even the share 40 00:02:06.519 --> 00:02:09.319 place falling and stuff like that, it's all relation to 41 00:02:09.360 --> 00:02:11.439 the fact that he basically they have to go and 42 00:02:11.560 --> 00:02:15.639 change their business model and so yeah, they're making progress. 43 00:02:15.879 --> 00:02:19.599 Okay, So I give you three out of five because 44 00:02:20.080 --> 00:02:24.159 it's not just Stellontis. If you look at the results 45 00:02:24.280 --> 00:02:29.240 of the German main atomakers Onsagon profits went down last 46 00:02:29.280 --> 00:02:33.719 year by sixty four percent, D ninety one percent, BMW 47 00:02:33.879 --> 00:02:38.479 eighty four percent, and Massades Benz fifty four percent. So 48 00:02:38.560 --> 00:02:42.560 it's the all Western OEM went down. Well, it's not 49 00:02:42.599 --> 00:02:45.520 a crisis, it's an implosion. It's not just ste Luntist, 50 00:02:45.560 --> 00:02:46.960 it's pretty much everybody. 51 00:02:47.840 --> 00:02:50.120 But I'm going to defend myself. I didn't make a 52 00:02:50.159 --> 00:02:53.759 prediction about implosion. I made a prediction about bringing Chinese 53 00:02:53.879 --> 00:02:56.159 manufactured evs into Europe. 54 00:02:56.960 --> 00:03:01.280 Okay, Julie noted, but duly ignored. So you end up 55 00:03:01.719 --> 00:03:07.000 seven out of ten on this one. Next prediction, politics 56 00:03:07.240 --> 00:03:10.240 election in two twenty four, who derated the energy transition? 57 00:03:10.840 --> 00:03:15.479 That's me And I'm pretty happy with my prediction. Considering 58 00:03:15.520 --> 00:03:18.319 the fact that Trump has been elected and he has 59 00:03:18.360 --> 00:03:22.759 talked about dismantling most of the pro green policies of 60 00:03:22.800 --> 00:03:27.199 Biden and Journey speaking, what we've seen is that there's 61 00:03:27.240 --> 00:03:30.400 a much more emphasis on security than on green. So 62 00:03:30.639 --> 00:03:34.560 I feel pretty good about my prediction. What's your opinion, guys? 63 00:03:34.960 --> 00:03:37.280 I think maybe if you're talking about twenty twenty five, 64 00:03:37.360 --> 00:03:37.840 you're right. 65 00:03:38.000 --> 00:03:39.199 But let's be really clear. 66 00:03:39.240 --> 00:03:41.759 Twenty twenty four was a record year in terms of 67 00:03:41.800 --> 00:03:47.599 installations of everything renewable, whether it's solar wind evs in 68 00:03:47.639 --> 00:03:51.159 the United States and actually across the rest of the world. 69 00:03:51.800 --> 00:03:54.960 So there was no derailment whatsoever of the energy transition 70 00:03:55.039 --> 00:03:57.319 in twenty twenty four. So if I could give you 71 00:03:57.360 --> 00:04:00.000 a zero out of five, I would, But because Christmas, 72 00:04:00.039 --> 00:04:01.280 I'm going for a one. 73 00:04:02.800 --> 00:04:06.479 I'm feeling slightly more charitable because my comment last year 74 00:04:06.719 --> 00:04:10.560 was no, the elections will have impacts in the following years, 75 00:04:11.000 --> 00:04:13.639 not next year, and so I with Gerard and the timing. 76 00:04:13.879 --> 00:04:15.599 The big thing that I think is going to happen 77 00:04:15.840 --> 00:04:18.319 is that offshore wind in the United States is dead 78 00:04:18.360 --> 00:04:21.920 for another five years. Beyond that, the United States will 79 00:04:21.959 --> 00:04:24.399 be slowed by this, but the rest of the world 80 00:04:24.519 --> 00:04:26.680 is just going to buy more and more Chinese products. 81 00:04:26.879 --> 00:04:29.360 I'm going to give you a two because you're right 82 00:04:29.480 --> 00:04:31.680 in general, but you're not right on the time. 83 00:04:32.199 --> 00:04:35.480 Yeah, listen, because I'm feeling charitable, and you know it's 84 00:04:35.560 --> 00:04:37.639 January and all this type of stuff. Be nice to people, 85 00:04:37.639 --> 00:04:39.360 I'm gonna raise it to a two as well. 86 00:04:39.839 --> 00:04:46.720 Oh that is so nice of you. Okay, next job over. 87 00:04:46.480 --> 00:04:50.040 Supply of everything energy related to and that's what we've seen, 88 00:04:50.279 --> 00:04:55.079 and that starts with fossil fuels, oil prices down, gas 89 00:04:55.120 --> 00:04:58.800 prices down. If you look in the renewables area, costs 90 00:04:58.800 --> 00:05:02.560 of evs have collapse, cost the batteries of collapse, cost 91 00:05:02.600 --> 00:05:05.480 of solar has gone down, even wind has gone down. 92 00:05:06.000 --> 00:05:08.160 So yeah, I expect I should be getting a five 93 00:05:08.160 --> 00:05:09.000 out of five out of this. 94 00:05:09.399 --> 00:05:11.839 Yeah, but John, have you seen the price of the TTF. 95 00:05:11.839 --> 00:05:14.839 You know, up started the year at seven OPU and 96 00:05:14.879 --> 00:05:15.680 I is at fourteen. 97 00:05:16.240 --> 00:05:17.560 There's exceptions to everything. 98 00:05:18.560 --> 00:05:23.279 Yeah, there's exception to a five out of five. That's 99 00:05:23.279 --> 00:05:25.279 why I give you a four out of five. 100 00:05:26.600 --> 00:05:29.480 Michael Well, I was actually feeling like you were just 101 00:05:29.480 --> 00:05:32.399 making an observation a year ago, and so I wasn't 102 00:05:32.399 --> 00:05:34.560 going to give grank you very high on this except 103 00:05:34.639 --> 00:05:38.439 for the sheer magnitude of it. The collapse in battery 104 00:05:38.480 --> 00:05:42.399 prices down to under fifty dollars per kill a what hour. 105 00:05:42.800 --> 00:05:45.800 I'm a battery optimist, and I had no expectation that 106 00:05:45.879 --> 00:05:49.839 we'd hit that. The massive surge in solar and Pakistan 107 00:05:49.959 --> 00:05:53.920 because of the glut of solar panels, no expectation of that. 108 00:05:54.319 --> 00:05:57.839 I'm continue to be surprised in amaze. So while it's 109 00:05:58.000 --> 00:06:00.759 just an observation you made, and you didn't actually make 110 00:06:01.000 --> 00:06:03.680 observations about the implications of it, which is what a 111 00:06:03.759 --> 00:06:08.319 real prediction would do, which I'll demonstrate later. I'm going 112 00:06:08.360 --> 00:06:09.240 to give you four to five. 113 00:06:09.639 --> 00:06:11.040 Thank you very very much. 114 00:06:11.519 --> 00:06:18.720 Okay, force prediction, stronger top down governance of transmission and interconnection, 115 00:06:19.480 --> 00:06:20.319 Mike Kurn. 116 00:06:20.800 --> 00:06:24.160 That was in the EU specifically correct. I'm just gonna 117 00:06:24.160 --> 00:06:27.839 say I'm feeling pretty strong about this one too. In 118 00:06:27.920 --> 00:06:30.160 May of twenty twenty four, to the twenty seven members 119 00:06:30.160 --> 00:06:33.680 state energy ministers and make up the Transport, Telecoms and 120 00:06:33.839 --> 00:06:36.800 Energy Council of the EU agreed to the following and 121 00:06:36.839 --> 00:06:40.959 I quote underlines the need for a holistic, long term, coordinated, 122 00:06:41.079 --> 00:06:46.720 improved and integrated electricity grid infrastructure planning at European level. 123 00:06:46.959 --> 00:06:49.560 That's the people who make the decisions saying they need 124 00:06:49.680 --> 00:06:53.560 top down planning of grid and they need EU level coordination, 125 00:06:54.240 --> 00:06:58.240 not the current boys Club of utilities. So I'm feeling 126 00:06:58.439 --> 00:06:59.360 that this one I. 127 00:06:59.360 --> 00:07:01.319 Not did it in the p I'm going to add 128 00:07:01.399 --> 00:07:03.439 one little bit to support to Michael, which is he 129 00:07:03.439 --> 00:07:06.399 didn't talk about the US, which is in the US 130 00:07:06.439 --> 00:07:11.000 there I also has been really strong moods towards top 131 00:07:11.040 --> 00:07:12.279 down governance, and. 132 00:07:12.399 --> 00:07:16.399 Actually it's partially driven by energy security, but it's really 133 00:07:16.439 --> 00:07:18.639 been driven by data center growth and stuff like that. 134 00:07:18.839 --> 00:07:19.040 You know. 135 00:07:19.319 --> 00:07:21.600 So I'm definitely with your list. If I could give 136 00:07:21.600 --> 00:07:23.439 you a five point five out of five, I would, 137 00:07:23.519 --> 00:07:24.399 but I'm not allowed. 138 00:07:24.439 --> 00:07:25.680 So I'm just going to give you a five out 139 00:07:25.680 --> 00:07:26.000 of five. 140 00:07:26.319 --> 00:07:29.240 Thank you so much. So at five point five. 141 00:07:29.360 --> 00:07:31.639 Five out of five, I can't give a five point five. 142 00:07:31.680 --> 00:07:33.040 I'm going to give him five out of five. 143 00:07:33.439 --> 00:07:37.639 Okay, I write this down fight out of you realize 144 00:07:37.680 --> 00:07:39.560 that if you give him a fight out of five 145 00:07:39.600 --> 00:07:41.560 and I played smart and I give him also a 146 00:07:41.600 --> 00:07:47.519 fight out of five, you lose because I'm already last 147 00:07:47.720 --> 00:07:54.439 as usual. Yah, you're playing against your house. You're sure 148 00:07:54.560 --> 00:07:55.519 five out of five? 149 00:07:56.160 --> 00:07:58.120 Bit stupid on that, Yeah, but no, I think he 150 00:07:58.639 --> 00:08:00.839 was fair enough and he had no I think it did. 151 00:08:01.120 --> 00:08:01.839 I had to be scared. 152 00:08:02.560 --> 00:08:05.360 Okay, I give him also five out of five. 153 00:08:06.279 --> 00:08:07.839 Okay, I'm just gonna say. 154 00:08:07.959 --> 00:08:11.839 I will say in my defense, I was completely shocked 155 00:08:11.959 --> 00:08:13.800 to be right, Okay. 156 00:08:14.000 --> 00:08:19.120 Fifth to one the return of clean energy shares and 157 00:08:19.560 --> 00:08:24.160 if I look at the major indices like S and 158 00:08:24.240 --> 00:08:28.519 P Global clean energy indecks it's down twenty five percent 159 00:08:28.959 --> 00:08:34.000 last year. So on one hand, I got it totally wrong. Now, 160 00:08:34.039 --> 00:08:38.320 if I expand what clean energy is and I integrate 161 00:08:38.919 --> 00:08:42.600 what I would call the periphery, which means people are 162 00:08:42.600 --> 00:08:47.159 providing equipment, and then that would include Simon's Energy or Jeevanova, 163 00:08:47.279 --> 00:08:52.559 those shares went ballistick up. Yes, the core did not perform, 164 00:08:52.960 --> 00:08:55.480 but the periphery went extremely well. 165 00:08:55.559 --> 00:08:58.840 So I asked for your mercifulness. 166 00:09:01.039 --> 00:09:02.960 Well, listen, I just have one question then if you 167 00:09:02.960 --> 00:09:05.039 can ask it, then I give you a bonus point. 168 00:09:05.279 --> 00:09:08.039 Vestas biggest turbine manufacturing in the world, is how did 169 00:09:08.039 --> 00:09:10.600 their share price perform last year US? 170 00:09:10.679 --> 00:09:14.440 Yes, minus fifty three percent twenty four. 171 00:09:14.519 --> 00:09:17.440 Okay, well listen forgetting it right, I'm going to give you, 172 00:09:17.440 --> 00:09:19.639 you know, a mercy mark, and I'm going to give 173 00:09:19.679 --> 00:09:20.639 you two out of five. 174 00:09:21.600 --> 00:09:24.919 I've just got to say I'm actually somewhat pleased because 175 00:09:25.120 --> 00:09:28.240 I'm in portfolio rebalancing time. I'm a buy and hold. 176 00:09:28.240 --> 00:09:31.159 I'm not a trader, and right now, my god, is 177 00:09:31.200 --> 00:09:34.799 it a buyer's market. If you have cash, now is 178 00:09:34.840 --> 00:09:36.919 the time to get in, Because Laurent, you're off on 179 00:09:37.039 --> 00:09:40.919 timing again. But they're starting to fix the market mechanisms 180 00:09:41.080 --> 00:09:43.240 that have made it difficult for some of these friends 181 00:09:43.600 --> 00:09:45.279 to make a profit. They're starting to fix some of 182 00:09:45.320 --> 00:09:48.320 the auctions and stuff like that. But of course there 183 00:09:48.399 --> 00:09:51.039 is the other problem, which is that Gerard's wrong again 184 00:09:51.679 --> 00:09:54.679 by claiming that Vestus is the world's largest. 185 00:09:58.919 --> 00:10:02.679 Right used to used to be used to be, used 186 00:10:02.679 --> 00:10:03.399 to be, used to be. 187 00:10:03.840 --> 00:10:06.720 And so I'm once again I'm going to give you 188 00:10:06.759 --> 00:10:10.120 a two out of five because you're right in the direction, 189 00:10:10.639 --> 00:10:11.559 wrong in the timing. 190 00:10:12.039 --> 00:10:14.720 I said, only lost eight percent last year. 191 00:10:15.159 --> 00:10:16.279 Then of course it's nerdful. 192 00:10:16.879 --> 00:10:19.759 Yeah, ushush h. 193 00:10:20.519 --> 00:10:22.120 We won't talk about that. They tried to ip o 194 00:10:22.240 --> 00:10:23.639 that my god. 195 00:10:24.080 --> 00:10:29.080 Okay, guys, So that's another two out of five. Okay, 196 00:10:29.240 --> 00:10:32.320 so I already have my final score. Okay, we'll talk 197 00:10:32.320 --> 00:10:37.360 about it later. Last but not this prediction of last year. 198 00:10:37.519 --> 00:10:42.159 Jihad China, we gain massive international market in win and 199 00:10:42.320 --> 00:10:43.919 EV's yaho. 200 00:10:43.600 --> 00:10:44.879 Woa woa woa woa. 201 00:10:45.360 --> 00:10:47.639 Well, first and foremost we have seen it in the 202 00:10:47.639 --> 00:10:50.159 wind space. So they're not just selling into their own market, 203 00:10:50.159 --> 00:10:54.320 they're now exporting and actually they're very close to. 204 00:10:54.279 --> 00:10:56.799 Coming into continental Europe as well, which is a big base, 205 00:10:56.879 --> 00:10:59.759 big step forward as well in terms of ev sorry 206 00:10:59.799 --> 00:11:02.320 to say that the kings of EVS and what you've 207 00:11:02.320 --> 00:11:05.679 seen is Chinese manufacturers going everywhere across the world. 208 00:11:06.000 --> 00:11:07.960 So yeah, I'm quite happy with my prediction there that 209 00:11:08.039 --> 00:11:10.759 they would gain international market share within. 210 00:11:10.720 --> 00:11:15.039 The EVS, although eighty percent of their car export ice 211 00:11:15.600 --> 00:11:20.279 really yeah, you need to follow really expelled like Michael Juna, 212 00:11:20.399 --> 00:11:21.799 We really know what he's talking about. 213 00:11:22.559 --> 00:11:24.799 So I give you a four to five job. 214 00:11:26.679 --> 00:11:29.320 My observation last year was once again geord is making 215 00:11:29.360 --> 00:11:35.039 an observation, not a prediction, so I can't give you 216 00:11:35.159 --> 00:11:39.159 much because the implications of the observation is a prediction. 217 00:11:39.679 --> 00:11:42.360 We talked about Vesta's a share price being way off, 218 00:11:42.480 --> 00:11:45.720 and that's in large part because they're losing business. We 219 00:11:45.799 --> 00:11:51.600 talked about the European OEMs for car manufacturers losing lots 220 00:11:51.600 --> 00:11:54.039 and lots of business. I'll be talking a bit more 221 00:11:54.080 --> 00:11:57.000 about that in a couple of spaces, But those are predictions. 222 00:11:57.600 --> 00:12:00.360 Saying that China is going to dominate area is where 223 00:12:00.399 --> 00:12:04.799 it is already dominating and is chipping everywhere except Europe, 224 00:12:05.159 --> 00:12:10.120 which is a retrograde market globally, is just an observation 225 00:12:10.200 --> 00:12:11.480 so I'm only going to give you a three out 226 00:12:11.480 --> 00:12:11.799 of five. 227 00:12:12.639 --> 00:12:14.360 Oh, I tell you what, You're going to have trouble 228 00:12:14.399 --> 00:12:18.240 next year, my friend. 229 00:12:18.519 --> 00:12:19.879 Oh, I'm not going to forget this. 230 00:12:20.440 --> 00:12:24.600 So I've got the final results, Okay, as usual, I'm 231 00:12:24.679 --> 00:12:29.440 last with eight out of twenty, the next one as 232 00:12:29.600 --> 00:12:32.879 fifteen out of twenty, and the first as seventeen out 233 00:12:32.879 --> 00:12:33.440 of twenty. 234 00:12:33.639 --> 00:12:41.519 And the winner is Mike bomb Out. 235 00:12:45.080 --> 00:12:49.360 I now take my Nostrodamus twenty twenty four trophy, and 236 00:12:49.639 --> 00:12:53.519 I accept it with all humility and also tremendous surprise. 237 00:12:54.200 --> 00:12:57.240 I did not expect to be so right. These were 238 00:12:57.480 --> 00:13:02.600 aspirational hopes. Here you're twenty twenty five predictions, and they 239 00:13:03.080 --> 00:13:05.720 better not be vague. They aren't. 240 00:13:10.320 --> 00:13:14.960 So Prediction number one, Mike kil My first prediction is. 241 00:13:18.759 --> 00:13:21.960 Jale oil production will decline in the United States in 242 00:13:22.000 --> 00:13:25.559 the first year of the Trump presidency. And why shales 243 00:13:25.600 --> 00:13:27.759 into four point zero right now? What that means it's 244 00:13:27.840 --> 00:13:32.720 a consolidation play by global majors who have jale sites 245 00:13:32.919 --> 00:13:36.039 that they can develop. Jail only lasts for three years 246 00:13:36.080 --> 00:13:40.960 before seeing significant declines, so it is actually a technology 247 00:13:41.399 --> 00:13:45.639 response to demand at market prices. But the shale oil sites. 248 00:13:46.039 --> 00:13:49.720 They've already taken the highest profit ones. We're now seeing 249 00:13:50.080 --> 00:13:52.720 the more marginal sites that cost more to develop and 250 00:13:52.799 --> 00:13:57.639 have lower production. The combination of China's drop in significant 251 00:13:57.679 --> 00:14:02.759 demand for petroleum, especially over the coming years, is precursored by, 252 00:14:02.879 --> 00:14:06.840 for example, the collapse of the diesel engine market in China, 253 00:14:07.080 --> 00:14:10.759 where LNG engines for the longest range vehicles are going 254 00:14:10.960 --> 00:14:14.320 and everything else is going electric. Basically, anything that China 255 00:14:14.360 --> 00:14:16.799 can't electrify it putting ellen G in and it's getting 256 00:14:16.799 --> 00:14:20.480 that LNG from Stans. So the biggest export market in 257 00:14:20.519 --> 00:14:24.200 the world for patrolum is declining, and so the price 258 00:14:24.240 --> 00:14:27.279 of oil is going to decline. What that means is 259 00:14:27.279 --> 00:14:30.159 the shale of aill sites will no longer be profitable, 260 00:14:30.399 --> 00:14:32.919 and the global majors it owns them will develop them. 261 00:14:33.279 --> 00:14:36.360 But I will say that, as you know, they opened 262 00:14:36.519 --> 00:14:41.759 the Mattenhorn gas pipeline from West Access to the main hubs, 263 00:14:42.080 --> 00:14:44.840 which means that the WA hub, which used to be 264 00:14:45.240 --> 00:14:49.639 discounted to the Henry Hub, now is rebalancing. So as 265 00:14:49.679 --> 00:14:52.279 they're going to make more money on gas, they're going 266 00:14:52.279 --> 00:14:54.679 to pump more oil. That's my counter argument. 267 00:14:55.159 --> 00:14:57.279 We shall see in a year. What do you think, Jirod. 268 00:14:57.759 --> 00:14:59.960 I think this is very close to my second PARTICU, 269 00:15:00.480 --> 00:15:03.600 so I maybe go the second prediction and then I'll 270 00:15:03.639 --> 00:15:05.120 sort of answer your question. 271 00:15:04.840 --> 00:15:07.039 With this right job your ton. 272 00:15:07.720 --> 00:15:10.120 So my prediction is. 273 00:15:13.960 --> 00:15:17.399 That oil prices in two thousand and twenty five will 274 00:15:17.440 --> 00:15:20.919 hit forty dollars. And Michael, it's a little bit going 275 00:15:20.919 --> 00:15:22.960 on to what you're saying there as well. I'm actually 276 00:15:23.000 --> 00:15:25.399 going to come from it from exactly. I agree with 277 00:15:25.480 --> 00:15:28.399 you that we've seen probably peak oil demand in China 278 00:15:28.440 --> 00:15:32.720 for a start, but secondly, we've just got overproduction in Opec. 279 00:15:32.759 --> 00:15:35.600 You've got five million extra barrels a day. And I 280 00:15:35.679 --> 00:15:38.480 also think that we're going to see in the Ukrainian situation, 281 00:15:38.559 --> 00:15:40.840 we're going to see some form of peace solution there 282 00:15:41.320 --> 00:15:43.559 and that means you could have another one million barrels 283 00:15:43.559 --> 00:15:45.279 of Russian oil to come on the market, and I 284 00:15:45.320 --> 00:15:47.440 think that's going to just push prices down. So that's 285 00:15:47.480 --> 00:15:53.000 my specific prediction forty dollars oil two twenty five. 286 00:15:53.679 --> 00:15:56.600 Now, when you say forty is going to touch forty 287 00:15:56.679 --> 00:16:01.799 once ago come on or it's an average, oh touch. 288 00:16:01.879 --> 00:16:04.679 I'd just like to congratulate you. I'm finally saying something 289 00:16:04.720 --> 00:16:06.080 that is a specific production. 290 00:16:09.919 --> 00:16:13.960 My first prediction is, and it's very close to yours, 291 00:16:14.360 --> 00:16:23.639 is the following geopolitics, stress, supply chains and energy bonanza 292 00:16:23.919 --> 00:16:26.360 will bring a more innovative and better world. 293 00:16:26.919 --> 00:16:27.879 And let me explain. 294 00:16:28.279 --> 00:16:32.039 There are two trouble makers in the world geopolitics, Russia 295 00:16:32.080 --> 00:16:35.879 and Iran, and I think they are exhausted after years 296 00:16:35.879 --> 00:16:39.320 of funding wars and chaos. They are burning through their 297 00:16:39.360 --> 00:16:43.960 fossil fuel wealth with only destruction to show for. Something's 298 00:16:44.000 --> 00:16:47.399 gonna give. So I think that one or the two 299 00:16:47.519 --> 00:16:51.440 regimes are gonna go down, which mean that whoever's gonna 300 00:16:51.440 --> 00:16:55.679 come after is gonna threat the market. You cannot have 301 00:16:56.000 --> 00:17:00.799 countries run by guys in their seventies and eighties in 302 00:17:00.879 --> 00:17:05.559 pursuit of imperial or teocratic dreams. But on the other hand, 303 00:17:05.960 --> 00:17:10.920 the supply chains are extremely cleverb You're four years timed 304 00:17:10.960 --> 00:17:14.160 for a new guest our bine. So if we have 305 00:17:14.200 --> 00:17:17.839 a huge demand of energy, is going to be through 306 00:17:17.839 --> 00:17:22.359 innovation and vulnoables. So sorry, it's a bit sophisticated, but 307 00:17:22.440 --> 00:17:23.319 that's my prediction. 308 00:17:23.960 --> 00:17:26.119 Can I just make one cover. I like what you said, Laurent, 309 00:17:26.440 --> 00:17:29.640 and I hope You're right. There's one little issue with 310 00:17:29.720 --> 00:17:33.880 the three first predictions we've come up with, and that's geopolitics, 311 00:17:34.079 --> 00:17:37.759 because there is still geopolitics risk, and what you say 312 00:17:37.839 --> 00:17:39.759 doesn't happen, it could go in the other direction, and 313 00:17:39.839 --> 00:17:42.400 actually we actually have prices going up, we have US 314 00:17:42.720 --> 00:17:45.559 shale going up, et cetera, et cetera. We hope not, 315 00:17:45.720 --> 00:17:47.160 but I just want to just show that in. 316 00:17:47.640 --> 00:17:49.359 I don't know, they lean into this one as well. 317 00:17:49.480 --> 00:17:53.160 I like what you're saying. I agree that structurally Iran 318 00:17:53.240 --> 00:17:58.079 and Russia are incredibly fragile states, and I hope their 319 00:17:58.119 --> 00:18:03.480 dissolution is relatively non destructive and doesn't still over their 320 00:18:03.480 --> 00:18:06.799 borders too much. I remember the Syrian refugee crisis of 321 00:18:06.839 --> 00:18:10.400 twenty fourteen quite clearly, even though I wasn't on the 322 00:18:10.400 --> 00:18:13.839 beaches of the Mediterranean counting bodies, and it's the kind 323 00:18:13.839 --> 00:18:16.960 of thing that can cause those kinds of floods of refugees, 324 00:18:17.200 --> 00:18:19.720 which is heavily destabilizing geopolitically. 325 00:18:20.039 --> 00:18:23.359 That's a downer, it's a total down So I hope 326 00:18:23.440 --> 00:18:27.119 the nextpedictions are going to be a bit more uplifting. Michael, 327 00:18:27.680 --> 00:18:28.559 Y'll next. 328 00:18:28.680 --> 00:18:31.240 In the spirit of being uplifting. My second prediction is 329 00:18:35.319 --> 00:18:38.799 a blood bath in hydrogen for any energy and transportation 330 00:18:38.920 --> 00:18:41.160 in twenty twenty five. I'm going to start with just 331 00:18:41.200 --> 00:18:44.799 a little interesting thing. It's actually illegal to call hydrogen 332 00:18:45.039 --> 00:18:48.880 vehicle zero mission in Canada. Bill C fifty nine was 333 00:18:48.920 --> 00:18:52.599 introduced in the summertime, and it required truth and advertising, 334 00:18:52.680 --> 00:18:56.279 and it allowed private organizations to bring charges against people 335 00:18:56.279 --> 00:18:59.799 who were bringing misleading greenwashing charges. As a result, all 336 00:18:59.839 --> 00:19:02.759 of Canada's boiling gas lobby groups and majors took all 337 00:19:02.799 --> 00:19:05.319 their social media down and took all their claims off 338 00:19:05.359 --> 00:19:10.559 their websites. But hydrogen vehicles aren't zero carbon, so you 339 00:19:10.680 --> 00:19:13.200 can't make them zero carbon. Well to wheel, that's going 340 00:19:13.240 --> 00:19:15.799 to be interesting to play them. But at least one 341 00:19:15.799 --> 00:19:19.480 of plug Power, fuel Cell Energy, or ballad will finally disappear. 342 00:19:20.119 --> 00:19:23.839 They're treating at pennies on the dollar of their twenty 343 00:19:23.880 --> 00:19:26.400 twenty one peak, which was a mini blip compared to 344 00:19:26.480 --> 00:19:30.680 their two thousand massive peak. At least one major bus company, 345 00:19:30.759 --> 00:19:35.400 Western Bus Manufactural, abandoned hydrogen fuel cell buses. Maybe Selearis 346 00:19:35.680 --> 00:19:39.160 Norway will stop finally stop trying to build hydrogen ferries 347 00:19:39.319 --> 00:19:43.119 and replace the one operational one which has double the 348 00:19:43.119 --> 00:19:46.079 emissions of a diesel ferry, forty times the emissions of 349 00:19:46.119 --> 00:19:48.960 a battery electric ferry that operates on the same route, 350 00:19:49.119 --> 00:19:52.119 operates slower and costs ten times as much to fuel. 351 00:19:52.880 --> 00:19:54.839 And one of the major truck and bus firms that's 352 00:19:54.839 --> 00:19:57.839 trying to do both hydrogen and batteries is going to 353 00:19:57.880 --> 00:20:01.880 follow Countrine into bankruptcy, then Cool in Europe or New 354 00:20:01.920 --> 00:20:04.359 Flyer in North America. Is that precise enough for you? 355 00:20:04.799 --> 00:20:05.319 I love it. 356 00:20:05.880 --> 00:20:07.680 I love it, and I'll go along with you and 357 00:20:07.720 --> 00:20:09.559 that I love it. Yeah, bring it on. 358 00:20:10.279 --> 00:20:12.039 Job your next prediction. 359 00:20:12.920 --> 00:20:22.680 My second prediction is around installations of all everything clean. 360 00:20:22.920 --> 00:20:28.000 We're going to see record installations of heat pumps globally, batteries, 361 00:20:28.039 --> 00:20:32.400 global evs, solar panels, et cetera. And I give you 362 00:20:32.400 --> 00:20:34.799 an idea just in terms of numbers, because I need 363 00:20:34.799 --> 00:20:37.519 to be precise because otherwise Michael will get me in trouble. Right, 364 00:20:37.839 --> 00:20:41.240 We'll install in this year seven hundred gigawatts of solar, 365 00:20:41.880 --> 00:20:45.079 and I predict that we will install one hundred gigawatts 366 00:20:45.119 --> 00:20:48.920 of batteries. In terms of electric cars, I'm going to 367 00:20:49.000 --> 00:20:50.799 put a big number out there, and I think we're 368 00:20:50.839 --> 00:20:51.759 going for twenty million. 369 00:20:52.200 --> 00:20:52.599 There you go. 370 00:20:53.000 --> 00:20:54.000 That's my last one. 371 00:20:54.480 --> 00:20:58.400 It's a when not twenty million evs, which would be great. 372 00:20:59.119 --> 00:21:02.599 And you said that one hundred gigabat of batteries yet yeah, 373 00:21:02.880 --> 00:21:03.759 no problem. 374 00:21:03.640 --> 00:21:06.799 Yeah, two hundred gig what hours of batteries globally, I'd 375 00:21:06.839 --> 00:21:08.880 say seven hundred gigs of solo. 376 00:21:09.359 --> 00:21:13.119 Yeah, but when if you look at the major is 377 00:21:13.160 --> 00:21:15.839 going to be more difficult. And I agree with Michael 378 00:21:15.960 --> 00:21:18.920 that of show wind in the US's toast. 379 00:21:18.839 --> 00:21:19.319 Which are not. 380 00:21:20.039 --> 00:21:23.279 And I'm just please once again, Gerard, that you're learning 381 00:21:23.279 --> 00:21:24.920 what a prediction is. I mean, how many years have 382 00:21:24.960 --> 00:21:28.599 you that's been doing this? And I agree with your predictions, 383 00:21:28.640 --> 00:21:30.720 and I think what we'll see is the global self. 384 00:21:31.200 --> 00:21:34.880 We're going to see vastly more penetration there as we 385 00:21:34.960 --> 00:21:38.079 saw this year in Pakistan and others. Just the sheer 386 00:21:38.559 --> 00:21:41.920 drop of costs. It's going to be stunning to watch. 387 00:21:42.839 --> 00:21:51.359 Okay, So my last prediction start with the anniversary. It 388 00:21:51.599 --> 00:21:55.759 was exactly five years ago that we had the famous 389 00:21:56.440 --> 00:22:01.039 letter from Larry Fink black Hawk, who said black Hawk 390 00:22:01.279 --> 00:22:05.119 put climate at the center of a seven trillion strategy, 391 00:22:05.799 --> 00:22:09.559 failed to act on climate, and your fired pension fund says, 392 00:22:10.359 --> 00:22:14.920 and the most great one everything is ESG. Now that 393 00:22:15.119 --> 00:22:18.519 was exactly five years ago, and what I can predict 394 00:22:18.920 --> 00:22:23.680 is that two twenty five, it's the disappearance of ESG 395 00:22:23.839 --> 00:22:28.440 climate carbon in any financial product. Guys, you're stunned. 396 00:22:29.200 --> 00:22:32.279 It is a bold any financial product. 397 00:22:32.559 --> 00:22:35.079 May mean you see that five percent, but the new 398 00:22:35.359 --> 00:22:40.279 financial product named ESG climate Net zero carbon blah blah blah. 399 00:22:40.720 --> 00:22:44.680 You at a moment five years ago where overnight Morning 400 00:22:44.759 --> 00:22:49.240 star Ric Christian two hundred fund as ESG, and I 401 00:22:49.319 --> 00:22:52.799