Speaker 1: To be honest with that, don't pay too much attention
to the fundamentals. I am more of a technician, so
I look more at price patterns. The fundamentals are the
underpinnings of why the markets are moving in different directions.
It's just analyzing the technical prices will get you in
on those moves at a time earlier than the fundamentals.
Speaker 2: Will paint that full picture for you. If that makes
this you're listening to Carrie.
Speaker 3: Let'sa's financial survival Network where you get valuable information you
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You need the financial Survival Network now more than ever.
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Speaker 2: Ever, and welcome. This is Financial Survival Network your host,
Carrie lutz. Ay, we got Michael Moore with us today,
not the Michael Moore, the more from more Analytics and
with us to review some markets see where they're heading,
particularly of noted interest, energy, gold, bitcoin, and we'll get
to some others if we have a chance. Michael, it's
great to have you back on the show. So what
do the markets have in store for us today or now.
Speaker 1: Karen, thank you very much for having Joe. Okay, this
is crude oil. We've obviously generally been in a slab
over the past three weeks, four weeks. Break the tree
blow eighty most recently the rady below eighty eighty two
has brought in four dollars and seventy cents of pressure.
And I said, no, we're an embarrassed correction, a trend
against the move up from seventy to twenty three. And
I said, and if it's a correction, we've entered into
the ideal time frame for an exhaustion area to hold.
And we today we came down and we just touched
below this exhaustional area at seventy six to fifty seven.
We treated down to seventy six oh four voted rallied
right here. Now, this doesn't change this and make this
bullish necessarily.
Speaker 2: The one thing I.
Speaker 1: Would note is that the heating oil and the gas
oil both have turned bullish today.
Speaker 2: They've both broken above.
Speaker 1: Formation in those that project them higher. So I would
expect that the creue oil is likely going to follow,
because the heating oil is leading the complex right now.
The reason why we know the heating rail is leading
the complex.
Speaker 2: Is I.
Speaker 1: Weigh these spreads between the products of crude oil and
the crude oil, that dictates to me which product is
leading the complex to the other side. Currently it is
the heating role that is leading the complex to the upside,
so crude oil is most likely going to follow. I
would also follow that up of saying that if this
crude oil gaps open higher tomorrow, is the market's going
to close in twenty three minutes from now. If the
gaps are up at higher tomorrow, it will leave a
minor bullish reversal below that will likely bring in higher
trade for a couple of days. But the eyes are
really on the heating oil to see what that does.
If that fails back down below the formation you've broke
about today, then the whole market should capitulate and continue
back down to the downside.
Speaker 2: All right, So interesting, and so we're you know, it's
summer now. They used to once upon a time build
inventories for the winter. Is that what's going on now here?
Or is something else happening?
Speaker 1: To be honest with that, don't pay too much attention
to the fundamentals. I am more of a technician, so
I look more at price patterns. The fundamentals are the
underpinnings of why the markets are moving in different directions.
It's just analyzing the technical prices will get you in
on those moves at a time earlier, and then the
fundamentals will paint that full picture for you.
Speaker 2: If that makes sense. Yep, it certainly does. We get
that because it.
Speaker 1: Heads up to in the heating well. That formation that
we broke above came in at two forty four sixty
four as a one o'clock and that decreases by seven
ticks per hour. If we fail back below that decently,
that'll turn the market.
Speaker 2: Back to bearsh Okay, interesting, interesting, Okay.
Speaker 1: Next, and so you want to take a look at
the gold.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're always interested in gold.
Speaker 1: So gold, we really has come off pretty hard here.
We've been embarras since holding exhaustion up above. Had a
large gap open lower yesterday. So the gold I warned
to trey below twenty four sixty four eighty to twenty
four sixty one twenty with wren a decent pressure.
Speaker 2: Likely for days.
Speaker 1: We had come off ninety six dollars ten cents coming
into this morning and a little bit more than that today,
and then the trade below twenty four eleven projects this
downward sixty five dollars plus we'd seen forty five point
one of that so far, and then another piece of
that today as well, and then the trade below twenty
three twenty also order pressure today also we are likely
going to lead a minor bearish reverse above.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Second here right here, so.
Speaker 1: Were negative and minor bullish reversal from below the previous
day left the minor bears reversal above today. Actually that's
already in place because the gold's already closed at one third,
So I think this the entire timeframe bearish correction against
me up from nineteen even twenty so this can still
see considerable lower trade. Those first exhaustion levels for the
higher timeframe are don't even come until twenty two sixty
six to twenty two fifty five, and then you have
luck on that at twenty one ninety four to twenty
one ninety one twenty So.
Speaker 2: Yeah, looking pretty barrissie.
Speaker 1: Do you have any questions on that?
Speaker 2: Or I can see your point there looks like looks
like a little topy. Huh.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, if this is a sixty minute chart, if
I was to go to a daily chart like this
one and really tighten it up a bit like this,
you can see we've had this five wave structure up here,
peaked right here held exhaustion, and then as you're starting
to roll over. So I think that this correction is
going to exceed the size of this one right here,
probably down into here, but probably dip down into these
lower areas before slash. If reasonable higher trade, this would
be an area of a solidation or support if if
you want to call it that, between twenty three oh
eight seventy and uh twenty three oh four to seventy
you really take that out that can you know, really
take this dot intoto the twenty one seventies or so,
and you wanted to look at the coin er, did
you have any questions on that before?
Speaker 2: We? Yeah, makes sense makes sense there.
Speaker 1: So the big cooin, the trade above fifty six seven
forty uh turned to spolish. We'd singing eleven nine hundred
and fifteen per coin of that, and then the trade
above sixty one oh forty five projected this upward seven
thousand per coin. We attained seven thousand, six hundred and
ten of that so far However, I noted that right
up in here with these two little lines this denoted
possible exhaustion.
Speaker 2: We held it just about exactly.
Speaker 1: Right there at the sixty eight one one to sixty
eight five eighty nine with the sixty eight six fifty
five high and rolled over four thy eight hundred and
sixty five or coin in a little bit more than
that today possibly in embarrassed correction against this move up
from fifty three six thirty five. Initial exhaustion is at
sixty two nine one seven, and then we have another
one at sixty one, and then other times. If this
rally is up and takes at this formation above here,
which comes in at sixty nine five hundred plus twenty
one per hours starting at two o'clock PM Eastern Standard time,
that will more of renewed strength.
Speaker 2: So what do you think I mean in the longer
run is the is the run up still intact or
are well?
Speaker 1: We can see, uh, this is a daily chart right here,
we're just pulls together a little bit. I think this
this run up from the you know, twenty thousand of
coin level here, I think that this is just a
bearish correction against this. So if this takes out this
formation above, it will have very significant projections to the upside.
Let me just pull that together again. That line up
there is red apere.
Speaker 2: I didn't mention that. I'm sorry that comes in.
Speaker 1: It's seventy one five point fifty one minus one per
hour starting at two o'clock PM Eastern Standard time. We
break above that diesel, and that is going to project
this upward eighteen thousand plus per coin. So that's a
very significant formation to keep an eye out, all right,
right now, just short term we're bearish.
Speaker 2: Right here, short term bearish, but potentially could go higher.
How high I kind of go here, I mean, it's right.
Speaker 1: If we take this formation out above, this thing could
really scream. I mean, this thing could move up into
the hunderd and five outright upon those levels. But at
the very minimum, we take that formation out of and
reject this up. We're eighteen thousand per coin.
Speaker 2: From that level. And it's been a bit range bound,
you know, fluctuating between like mid fifties up to like
high sixties exactly, and it's like it's waiting for a
push up or down. You know, I can't figure out which,
but the trend is still up for now. Could it
have peaked. I don't know it hit it all time high, So.
Speaker 1: I think we're more higher likely scenario is a run
to the upside. This is a lot of consolidation right
in here, if you can see MS screen. But the
run that consolidation was from lower levels strongly up into it.
So usually you have a big run like that, it's
going to consolidate for a while before launching off into
a whole nother run. So yeah, just short term embarrassed
right here.
Speaker 2: But I think.
Speaker 1: The more likely scenario will be that this will eventually
continue to the upside.
Speaker 2: Okay, cool, all right, I buy it. I am buying it,
so you don't have to sell it.
Speaker 1: Well, just as a point to your listeners, some people,
when they approach the markets, they most retail people approach
the markets from an investors standpoint, right, not a trader's standpoint.
This is true, and the difficulty with that is they
often take whole positions for significant periods of time against themselves,
and the worst thing that can happen with that is
that they're correct and then it takes off again and
they rally. Then they feel good about holding the position
for all that time. There's also opportunity costs there. First
of all, if the thing keeps going down, you can
really get destroyed. Second of all, while it's going down
for a long period of time, you know you're not
making money in that investment. And one of the things
that's helpful about having an analyst like me or somebody
else who knows what they're doing in the market and
knows different levels. Even if you're not able to trade
on a day to day basis every day in and
out of the markets, if you know decent levels on
the way down, you're better off getting out of lungs.
Let's say, for example, you want to hold it for
a big move to the upside and then the market
starts going down against You're better off getting out of
the lungs below certain formations and then trying to buy
again at small areas where you can take minimal risk,
and if it bounces off that area, you take off
part of your position to pay for the trade. And
that way, if it goes down through the level, then
it's basically a wash, or maybe you make a little
bit of money and keep doing that at different levels
on the way down, and eventually if that if the
market is going to return to the upside, you'll be
only very close to its turning inception, but having taken
much less risk on the way down.
Speaker 2: Okay, I'll buy that. I'll buy it makes sense old
Wall Street maxim you never go broke on Wall Street
taking the profit right.
Speaker 1: Well, I've heard people say that, but that can that
can definitely be false. Also depends on when you're taking
those profits.
Speaker 2: You know, if you're if you're well to.
Speaker 1: Your point, if you're letting your losers run against you,
but you're taking your profits too quickly, then you can
get annihilated. But what you want to do is you
want to limit your losses and let.
Speaker 2: Your winners run. Yes, you want to cut your losses
and let your profits run.
Speaker 1: But what is one very true Wall Street mecho that
I think everyone would do well to remember is the
markets can stay irrational more longer.
Speaker 2: Than you can stay liquid solving. Yeah, this is very true,
no question about.
Speaker 1: It, and a good example to anybody out there if
they're wondering whether they should just hold something against themselves.
Is crude oil back in twenty twenty one that went
to negative forty dollars a barrow briefly, which would have
wiped out anybody's account. So always trade with stops, Always
know where you want to get out if it goes
against you, and have an idea of where you want to.
Speaker 2: Get back in. Yeah, if you want to get back in, sure,
exactly makes a lot of sense. All right, what else
we got here?
Speaker 1: You like to take a look at the SMP.
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's look at the S and P unless you
want to look at natural gas. You let's look at
SMP first and we can finish up with that gas.
Speaker 1: Okay, With the S and P five hundred, we can
see here we've had a couple of We had a
gap lower here on the seventeenth of July, another big
gap lower here of the twenty fourth of July. More importantly, though,
we held a very.
Speaker 2: Key exhaustion up here. You can see that in red.
Speaker 1: I've been on the show a number of times for
quite a period back, so just as a macro summary
of some of the other things i've called in here,
then bullish Since thirty five oh two, which I said
we'd likely start a macro bullish trend, we've seen twenty
two hundred and nineteen point two to five handles of that,
and a lot of other detish formations in here along
the way. All of those are on hold. I said,
we held possible exhaustion at fifty seven nineteen seventy five
to fifty seven to twenty six even then with the
fifty seven and twenty five high and had rolled over
two hundred and seventy points coming into today, and then
a little bit more than that right here, and then
the trade below fifty six to nineteen brought it one
hundred and sixty eighty pressure, and then more recently the
break below fifty five seventy two. I said, projected this
downwards sixty four minimum one hundred and twenty two plus
maximum based off of well formed formation. We attained one
hundred and twenty one of that coming into today, and
then got the one twenty two plus right here before
holding this exhaustion below. Short term right here, I'm bullish
because we broke back above this line at fifty five
seventy three twelve or fifty five seventy three. Basically, it
has odd odd levels here. It doesn't take in those increments,
but I have them there because it's a line that's
moving down that you're trying to adjust. So short term
here I'm bullish, but I think that in general this
is probably not finished to the downside yet and probably
a likelihood of rolling rover again. If this was the
trade decently back above this major formation above, which comes
in at fifty five to thirty five plus thirty four
per hour starting at two o'clock PM Eastern Standard time,
I would be out of all shorts long and looking
for this to rally for days, and that would probably
be a high likelihood that this would run back up
the fifty seven to twenty one and a quarter plus.
Then can we take out this formation down below here,
which comes in at fifty four thirty three sixty four
plus twenty two per hour starting at two o'clock PM
Eastern standard tug that will ward of decent pressure. There
are some exhaustion levels to contend with on the way down.
One of them comes in at fifty seven seventy seventy five,
next one down below comes in at fifty two eighty
seven seventy five, and then a final one comes in
it fifty one seventy even to fifty one sixty fifty
And any questions on that part go to the natural gas.
Speaker 2: I think that looks pretty good, yeah, let's do that us.
Speaker 1: Okay, natural gas, giving what second, I just could to
pull it back up here. So the natural gas just
as an overall because we've been on the show for
a while, we've been bear since eight dollars and twenty
point eight.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I remember that glory days.
Speaker 1: Yep, we've seen six dollars and sixty eight point six
of that to the downside. A number of other bearish
formations in here.
Speaker 2: Well.
Speaker 1: Recently we had a run up we held exhaustion up
above at three twenty two ten and it rolled over
a dollar twenty point six, and then yesterday we left
a Yesterday we left a minor barish reversal above that
wanted a renewed pressure, likely back down towards the lows.
Starting to see that pressure down towards the two oh
one fifty level. But I would caution that this is
likely in the last stretch of the moved down from
three twenty two ten.
Speaker 2: With exhaustion levels. What's that it looks at It looks
like a double bottom's coming.
Speaker 1: So we have exhaustion levels aware of one ninety four
sixty and then another level here at one eighty five
seventy to one eighty ninety and one further one down
below here at one sixty twenty two.
Speaker 2: One fifty two fifty.
Speaker 1: Also, if it takes out this line above here, which
is a well formed line that's going to come in
at twenty two eighteen ninety minus one point five ticks
per hour starting at two o'clock PM Eastern Standard time,
that will project this up with two hundred ticks minimum,
three hundred and seventy tis plus maximum. Yeah, so that summarrasses, Yes.
Speaker 2: All right, I'll buy it.
Speaker 1: My commentary can be somewhat dried into the point and
very numerical, but I meet all my clients life hedge
funds and industry companies and in proprietary traders, so they're
right dialed into the specifics of the numbers.
Speaker 2: All okay, I like it. I like it? All right, Michael,
where do we find you again?
Speaker 1: You can go to my website which is more analytics.
Let me just pull up a thing just to the
youwers can see it real quick. Here we go, all right,
you have more analytics. More is just spelled m O
R no E at the end. So sorry, mare Aux
dot com right carries reach me by.
Speaker 2: Email or phone very well. The link is in the show.
It's this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. And hey,
when you go there, take a look at the site.
Sign up for a free newsletter. I know you like it.
Got like really good stuff on it, information you will
not find anywhere else. And got a question for Michael
or myself, Shoot me an email kl at Carrie lets
dot com. Mike, always a pleasure, Thanks for stopping by.
Speaker 1: Thank you very much.
Speaker 3: Carry I appreciate thanks for listening to Carrie Lets's Financial
Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times. For the latest,
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