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Speaker 1: Zach Gabraham joins us and I have a whole series

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of questions for Zach, such as this insane world. You

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operate in the separate country of Washington State. They ran

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a poll about ice enforcing immigration laws there. We'll talk

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about that. Plus Zach posted the most curious thing there

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are now more ETFs in the United States than there

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are individual stocks. And Zach said, gosh, what could go wrong?

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We'll talk with Zach Gabraham about your chances of retiring

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comfortably in a nation on the precipice of either greatness

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or ruin. We'll do this with the help of Renew

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dot Healthcare. Go to join stem cell talks dot com.

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Coming up of the eleventh September, me and the docs

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from renew We're going to talk about stem cells and

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everybody who attends, goes through the whole thing is entered

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to win a free week stay at beautiful Hotel Meal

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in Nuevavarta. It's joined stem cells talks dot com. Now,

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thank you God Almighty for time to have wise counsel.

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Speaker 2: Disapproved, but big pharma technocrats and tyrn s everywhere from

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the high mountains of Free America. Here's the Emerald city

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exile tied to her man.

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Speaker 1: Today is the day the Lord has made, and these

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are the times to which God has decided we shall

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live in. Joining me is the Cheat investment Officer Bulwark,

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cap of the management. It's my friend and brother, Zach Abraham. Zach,

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welcome back to the program. Good salute to the people.

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Speaker 3: How are you doing good? Doing good? I feel like

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we haven't done this in a while.

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Speaker 1: No, we did it last week. But we did have

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that long break when you went up to Alaska and

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then you right.

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Speaker 3: Might be where it was.

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Speaker 4: And you know, I only used I only used one

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of my helicopters to get up there.

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Speaker 1: Lock, you are really slowing down, you guys want normally

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you take your helicopter and each of the boys takes one.

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Speaker 4: Well, yeah, and then we have a yacht come up

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as he's got a helicopter pad on it. Yes, I mean,

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you know you've got a helicopter. You can't be without

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your helicopter pat.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. And just so everybody knows, Zach he's being a

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little bit sarcastic. He's actually very responsible with money. Do

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you know the genesis of the helicopter jokes with me?

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Did you ever tell you that why I joke about helicopters. No, oh, okay,

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So back in the dot com era, I was having

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dinner with the CEO of a of a web publishing

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firm that you would know, very famous. It still exists,

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been through a number of sales, but it had been

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a public company and it had never earned a profit.

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It had never come to earning a profit. You remember this.

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Speaker 3: Story, Yes, I remember this right? Yes? Yeah? Yes.

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Speaker 1: The guy says, so I bought a helicopter and I said, why,

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goes well, Steve jobs as one and he was actually

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actually being flown into the office and landing on top

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of the roof in a company that never earned a profit.

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And by the way, Zach, it never has. I mean

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it's part of a bigger company now.

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Speaker 4: Well yeah, but I mean the efficiencies you pick up

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see no, yeah, if anybody, yes, right, that's that's where

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you head for the door. But but uh, that being said,

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there's Did you ever see that show Silicon Valley on HBO?

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Speaker 2: No?

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Speaker 1: Is it something I should watch?

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Speaker 4: It's hilarious and especially because of your experience there, you

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will laugh so hard because it's a parody, right, they're

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making fun of it. But people don't realize how similar

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it was. Like, for instance, they're talking to this guy

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that is an amalgamation of a bunch of the CEOs

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down there right he represents a bunch of them, and

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they're like, yeah, and it's gonna be great because if

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we do this, we're gonna post the best earnings.

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Speaker 3: You know, we've ever had any earnings?

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Speaker 1: Are you out of your.

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Speaker 3: Mom post earnings? The investors are going to be expecting

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it every quarter. Don't hear post earnings. Then you're gonna

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make it real. We do that, Like, the guy.

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Speaker 5: Just flips out, and I was laughing so hard because

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I'm like that, that is so oh that is so

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eerily close to reality in a really funny, you know,

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parody type.

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Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, yes, I got I got just almost.

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This guy wanted to whip me. He wanted to like

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pimp slap me. We were in the garage at our

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building in Seattle and I said something about I was

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talking to one of our first investors walking him into

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his car and said something along the lines of, man,

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I'm really getting a lot of pressure to look to sell.

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Well the bubble still exists, and he goes he stops,

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you stop there is no bubble. Never say bubble, never

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acknowledge bubble. There is no bubble. This is all value.

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This is a new economy. And Zach, you know, Zach,

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I'm in my mid twenties listening to this, looking at

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this man, realizing he's been an investor most of his life.

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He was in his fifties. And I didn't say to him, Alan,

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are you kidding me? We all know this is a bubble.

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I shut my hole and just played along with that

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to my shame. So no, it's called Silicon Valley.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and yeah, and it's it is. It is hilarious

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if I'm if I'm thinking of it.

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Speaker 4: It's not too it's not too inappropriate. It's not like

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a risk a show at all. It is just it's comedy,

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and it is if people don't know how Silicon Valley works.

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Speaker 3: It's not a perfect representation.

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Speaker 4: It's a parody, but it's one of those parodies where

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it's also not very far right. It's pretty like and

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people don't realize that if they're not there, what a

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ridiculous place it could be, like you know what I mean,

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Like I know you know what I'm saying. Yes, And

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it's hard to explain because you're sitting there thinking to yourself.

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Mark Andriesen put it perfectly that he left his home

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in Nebraska, growing up on a farm, and he gets

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Silicon Valley and he's like, these are the smartest people

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in the world.

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Speaker 3: I need to adopt their worldview.

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Speaker 4: And he said it wasn't until years after being there

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that I realized, well, these people are brilliant as it

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relates to this one thing, yes, but when it comes to.

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Speaker 3: The rest of it, they're idiots. Yes, and that's the reality.

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Speaker 1: Yes, it's a town of my epic focus on making

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money from code and then code related things and it

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sort of stops there, or business there, some some business

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in general. So speaking of business, you invested in a

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company that we've been talking about here and I've had

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so many interesting conversations with people, and it's Visible. I

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got a note from a guy, Zach. His business has

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been in place for fifteen years, fifteen stinking years, and

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he heard me talking about Visible and so for the

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fun of things, he went and looked at his founding documents.

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He had to page back three. I had to go

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to his gun safe page back through to founding documents,

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and he went back and he looked and it was

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all based upon his personal credit. And he realized, so, Zach,

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this guy has offices in Cordelane, he's got offices in Boise,

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he's got offices in Wyoming. It's insurance. All of those

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insurance firms are owns under an LLC or this or corporation.

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None of it is divorced from his personal credit. All

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of it's based upon that. So he said, Okay, can

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I get in touch with Bisible. I'm like, yes, it's

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go bisible dot com. Will put me in touch. No,

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you can click the website right, you can do that

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on your own. So what Bisible does and you invested

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in this, I want you to say why. They'll look

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at this case and obviously he knows he doesn't have

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corporate credits and in seven easy steps they'll solve this

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for you. So you can be as sophisticated as you

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want or new as you want. And also if you're

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forming a business, do it right, like get that thing

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set up and then get with Bisible and then have

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them make sure you've got corporate credit. The website is

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go bisible dot com with the Z go bisible dot

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com and real quick why did you invest?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, because I was in the exact same I was

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in the exact same shoes that that guy was in.

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And a good buddy of mine that I went to

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college with and that lived played football with me called me,

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and so there was a personal interest in it for me.

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So I'm a silent partner. I've got nothing to do

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with the day to day activities. But it was something

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that had been plaguing me for a long time in

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the back of my head that I knew I was

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not doing. And so he called me with this business idea,

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and I went, well, yeah, hey, I'll be a client,

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but also, uh, you know, do you need some help?

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And so I offered help him, you know, get it off,

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get off the ground, and get it rolling. And I

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just it's something that is so simple to fix, and

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so people don't and so so few people have done

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it and taken those steps. And it's kind of like

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it's kind of like in the concept of investing.

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Speaker 3: And it's not free, but it's relative.

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Speaker 4: It's really cheap, especially for a business owner, and and

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you it's it's in investing. We have these scenarios where

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when you can get effectively free insurance, your answer should

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always be yes, right, And so many of us in

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the business world that owned businesses are passing on the

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free insurance that's offered by you know, the veil, the

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corporate veil of an LLC and and and we're piercing

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that veil because because we're financing it with our own

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personal credit and therefore nullifying the advantages. So anyway, yeah,

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it's it's a no brainer in my opinion.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, same with me. It's go visible dot com. I

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want to get to this immigration poll you posted because

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it's fascinating and I think people are weirded out by

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where you continue to live in the separate country, although

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albeit you live in a far better area there. But

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I wanted to get to this because this you have

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been warning us about this. Can I see it this way?

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Like the ryal fok do nie on four years? It's ye,

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I've spent nine on four years. There are now more

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ETFs electronic trading funds the United States than there are

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individual stocks, and you wrote something in regard to gosh,

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what could go wrong? A are you freaking kidding me?

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There's more ETFs than individual stocks and no one is

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calling an alarm bell on this.

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Speaker 3: Oh well no, because it hasn't There hasn't been any

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negative outcome.

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Speaker 1: Oh good, so let's move on.

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Speaker 4: So getting past yes, well, because we I mean, look,

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we all know how this works, right, As long as

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number go up, nobody cares.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 4: It's one of the reasons that we refer to regulators

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as firemen, meaning they never act preemptively to stop a fire.

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And and and I don't mean that in pure criticism.

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There's a lot of different reasons why that's the case.

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But but here here's the issue. But let me also

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sit there and go, this isn't all about fear and

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and and being freaked out about it and impending market collapse.

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Speaker 3: But but what it tells you is that something is

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inherently unstable.

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Speaker 4: Okay, So you ETFs by definition have to be made

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of stocks. If you're looking at a marketplace where you've

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got more ttfs than stocks, pretty good sign you've kind

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of overrun the usefulness, right, or you've just overdone it.

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And so what you've got now is you've got a

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market and you can see it like this on a

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daily basis. You've got a market where securities are trading

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and not all the time, but frequently securities are trading

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completely divorced from their underlying you know, idiosyncratic details, right,

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meaning they're just trading with the other group of stocks

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because there is more money going in and out of

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ETFs than there are stocks. So by definition, you've got

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this setup where the tail is wagging the dog. So

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a company can come out and announce really bad earnings,

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but if people are dumping money into the ETF, the

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stock could go up, right, And a perfect example of this,

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in my opinion, Now I can't tell you one hundred

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percent this is the case, but if you will, if

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you look at the S and P five hundred right now,

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and you look at the Nasdaq, for instance, there's some

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obvious anomalies, but one of them is kind of hiding

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in plain sight.

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Speaker 3: Apple, Right.

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Speaker 4: Go look at Apple and look at the fact that

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Apple is trading at thirty six times earnings, Okay, and

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then you look at how bad their performance has been.

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Speaker 3: Their growth rate has fallen off.

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Speaker 4: You're looking at five six percent growth, margins are down

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at fifteen percent. You look at a bunch of other

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the companies that are valued at that level, and they're growing.

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Speaker 3: Way faster, multiples faster.

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Speaker 4: Take a company like Google, which we've been talking about

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that's undervalued for a long time. It's getting an eight

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and a half nine percent pop today because, like we said,

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a lot of this stuff about Chrome being illegal was

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a lot of overhype nonsense. But one of the reasons

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in our opinion, and again I cannot prove this, but

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if you look at a stock like Apple, where you're

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looking at the underlying performance, Costco would be similar. Their

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performance isn't falling off, but you're looking at a company

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growing at seven and a half percent a year trading

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at fifty four times earnings. Just mind boggling, right, and

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then Costco is a great company growing at eight percent

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a year with two point seventy five percent margins.

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Speaker 3: Right, So, and you're going you're gonna pay fifty four

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times ear any for that doesn't make sense. But what

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is happening is that as money goes into these indexes,

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the money that flows into the indexes is awarded to

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the stock based on that individual stock size, not how

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it's performing, not how the profit. So when you put

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money into the.

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Speaker 4: Nasdaq or the S and P five hundred ETF six

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and a half to seven cents of every dollar, you're

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putting in is going into Apple regardless of how it's trading.

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Why because it's the one of the two biggest companies

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in the index. So what happens even though the performance

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of Apple falls off, the stock keeps going up. So

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it's it's met some resistance lately. But at the same time,

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it's one of the reasons that you see so many

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of these head scratching valuations because you're looking around going,

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wait a second, these two companies are in the same sector.

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How could this mark could be telling me that this

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company growing at fifteen percent is worth half the multiple

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or the valuation that we're putting on this company that's

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going at five That doesn't make any sense, right. Meanwhile,

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the company growing at fifteen percent's got thirty percent margins

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Apples at fifteen and you're sitting there going, nobody would

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pay for that?

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Speaker 3: Well, how do we explain it?

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Speaker 4: You look around, look at ETFs, and you go that

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that's got to be it. So here's here's the bright side.

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And you and I were talking about this. The value

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fund that I run on the year is up twenty

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three percent plus on the year. Okay, and we've had

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bad years too. I'm not sitting here saying we're always right.

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But one of the reasons that's driven that out performance

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is by us going through a lot of these indexes

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and picking out the companies that are just artificially too

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cheap and not owning the ones that are artificially too expensive.

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And a lot of that has to do with international markets,

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because international markets are even more divorced from reality than us.

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Speaker 3: And then you throw in precious me which still amazingly

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nobody seems to be nearly that that interested in, which

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is crazy to me because those stocks are still dirt cheap.

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But but you look at all these opportunities out there,

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and you're looking at a scenario where, like I said,

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there's things we need to be aware of, and there's

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concerns about that whole ETF situation.

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Speaker 4: At the same time, right dangerous opportunity, meaning what does

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that mean you got a bunch of overpriced stocks. It

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also means you got a bunch of artificially undervalued stocks,

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and that has got us licking our chops and you know, I,

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you know, we'll have to see the way it goes.

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But based on you know, a lot of the stuff

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that we hold, I'm sitting there looking at our years

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so far going.

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Speaker 3: Man, this is just the beginning, because there's just a

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but this.

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Speaker 4: This has created a bunch of overpriced nonsense, but it's

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also created a bunch of underpriced bargains too.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I have a probably stupid man question, and I'll

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ask this stupid man question in a second because a

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metaphor came to me trying to understand one dynamic of this.

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Me concerned more t ETFs than individual stocks. So I'm

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going to provide a metaphor here in just a second.

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Because there's got to be a war coming on this.

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I'll explain what I mean. My friend Tim Krukshank knows

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what it's like to fight a real war. So in

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that Hunger Game scene where President Snow says to Catnus,

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tell me, my dear, you've been in the Hunger Games?

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Would you like to be in a real war? And

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she doesn't want to do that, Tim knows what's that like.

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So he also knows the war in business is nothing

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like being actually deployed, as he was three times as

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a medic attached to the seal teams. But it has

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been a bit of a war, bit of a battle.

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Getting bone Frog to where it's at. First, of all,

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Tim Krukshank Navy seal and physician's assistance in the real world.

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He didn't understand coffee. He just knew wanted to start

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a coffee company. He knew he wanted to honor fallen

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Navy seals. Hence ten percent of proceeds go to support

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the families of fallen Navy Seals, often through the Navy

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Seal Foundation. Knowing that, he knew he wanted to have

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an indelible logo in a statement, so he chose the

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bone Frog. He didn't want to steal the work of

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the artist who created the bone frog, who is a seal.

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That image stands for the body of a fallen seal,

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so he changed it slightly honors the artist. He wanted

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to honor God. Every beg says God, Country team on it,

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and I think this is why God has blessed the company.

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And God blessed the company with the presence of a

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guy named Dave Stewart who took a liking to Tim

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and took him under his wing. Dave started Seattle's Best

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Coffee and he tutors Tim and mentors him on the

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coffee roast. In fact, Dave makes some of the roasts.

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This is why I think Bone Frog is still fighting

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the battle. They have it won completely, yet they're on

347
00:17:31,559 --> 00:17:34,640
the precipice. So when you subscribe the bone Frog Coffee,

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00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:37,799
you're joining God Country Team, the team. You're getting excellent coffee.

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00:17:37,799 --> 00:17:40,200
You're supporting a company that hires veterans whenever they can,

350
00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:43,039
works with veteran owned companies. Tim just had to replace

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00:17:43,079 --> 00:17:46,480
two team members because they went to join the Navy Seals,

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and I got to check with him to see if

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00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:49,599
they made it through buds and if so, if they're

354
00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:52,559
under the next stage, you're becoming seals. So go join

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00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:56,079
the Godcountry Team. Family. At Bonefrog Coffee dot com slash todd,

356
00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:58,400
use promo code Todd when you check out, you'll get

357
00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:01,599
fifteen percent off subscription coffe. Forget all that stuff about

358
00:18:01,599 --> 00:18:04,200
trying the coffee. Just trust me and trust the taste

359
00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:07,400
and trust the heritage. It's Bonefrog Coffee dot com, slash todd,

360
00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:09,440
promo code Todd when you check out and subscribe to

361
00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:14,000
your favorite roasts. So Zach, this occurred to me and

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you mentioned Apple is one of these stocks. And then

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you also, I know you had a chat with a

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lead code on Microsoft's AI team. I want to get

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to that. So if I were to come to you

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and I were a and I were to pitch, let's

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and I'm just making this up, but let's say I

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was to come to you and pitch a whole bunch

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of bowling alleys. Okay, So I came in and I

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showed you this design, and look here's what we think.

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You know, this is the data play, Zach. It's not

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just the bowlding. These are people who like you know,

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they like these family sports. And you know, we're gonna

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have meals there, but then we're gonna be able to

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try meals and sample meals and maybe send some of

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these meals home. And you know, we're got of an app,

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but that apple also help us track people where they

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go and what else did they buy. So we're pretty

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sophisticated on this. And so we want to build four

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million bowling alleys. Look at me and say how many

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active bowlers are there in America? A million? Your likelihood

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of investing in me building four million bowling alleys for

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for for one million bowlers would be what.

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean, are they AI? O?

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Speaker 1: My point?

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Speaker 3: Are these going to be in Nvidia brand. Yes.

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Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, today I look over to

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my CTO, aren't they Yeah, then I mean yeah, oh yeah,

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it's Zack. It's all Ai right, it's all So. My

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point is this, Zach, if there are more ETFs than

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individual stocks, some of these ETFs.

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Speaker 3: Have to die. Yeah, no, no, yeah they yeah, they do.

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Speaker 1: What happens to your money? If this is your ETF

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and the ETF dies, that's got to be in the

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terms of service somewhere what happens.

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Speaker 4: Well, so then it then would be based off liquidation

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value of the underlying securities. So the so if so theoretically,

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if that were to occur because of lack of volume,

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which which has happened. There have been multiple ETFs that

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have gone out just because there wasn't enough volume enough

401
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people were training them. But what it does do is

402
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it creates an automatic liquidation and and you the investors

403
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would be given back. So for instance, you know, let's

404
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say the ETF goes no bid, but it sells off

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the underlying stock, the investor would get the value of

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the shares of stock.

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Speaker 3: In that day. So that wouldn't be that really wouldn't

408
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be a huge horrible event.

409
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Speaker 4: Okay, okay, where where it could become where where where

410
00:20:45,799 --> 00:20:49,200
where things get kind of interesting is if you think

411
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about it, it's really it's impossible determine tops and bottoms

412
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and things like this.

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Speaker 3: Okay, but but go with me for a second on

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this path.

415
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Speaker 4: If we are are investing via an ETF that only tracks,

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that allocates money based on the size of a company,

417
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So we're buying more shares of Apple, not because it's

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doing better because it's bigger.

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Speaker 3: Right, That is not the way markets are supposed to work.

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Speaker 4: We're supposed to discover this discover value, right, that's a

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discovery of value discovery mechanism. So the real issue here

422
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is not so much the ETFs blowing up. But let

423
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me give you a prime example. Look at the baby boomers.

424
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If you look at the average baby boomer portfolio, they

425
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use almost exclusively ETFs with some individual stockholdings. Okay, baby

426
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boomer class it owns by far and away the most securities.

427
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At some point, baby boomers will you will have and

428
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you're probably already there at.

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Speaker 3: The tipping point.

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Speaker 4: But at some point, when you look at how much

431
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of stock's baby boomers own, they will become forced liquidators

432
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of stocks. The number one thing they all own is

433
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SMP five hundred ETF. Okay, So this endless buying that

434
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:13,039
has been financed by all of their four oh one

435
00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:17,160
ks and their personal accounts. Right when they quit working,

436
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they've got to start pay taking money out.

437
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Speaker 3: So what was this.

438
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Speaker 4: Beautiful reflexive cycle of no matter what happens, Because remember

439
00:22:28,039 --> 00:22:29,960
you're putting money into your four oh one K every

440
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:32,200
two weeks, no matter what happens, right, it's just getting

441
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sucked out of your account, and then it gets automatically

442
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:37,480
allocated to the S and P five hundred. So that's

443
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why you'll see markets take a short term dip and

444
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then you'll see them just start ratcheting back up regardless

445
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of news. Why money flows well, at a certain point,

446
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the baby boomers are going to tip over where the

447
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amount you're pulling out every month so they can pay

448
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their bills will exceed the amount that people are putting

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into the ETF. And when that happens, you'll yet a

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reflexive cycle that was much. You know, it'll be the

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inverse of the way it was on the way up,

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where you're sitting there looking at companies going wait a second,

453
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why is it dropping it had a good quarter. People

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are selling it, right, and more of the and more

455
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of the stock is held via the ETF than individual right,

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So if the ETF starts selling, there's not enough buyers

457
00:23:22,839 --> 00:23:24,319
on the other side to hold the price of that

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stock out.

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Speaker 1: So this is when the perpetual motion machine stuffs moving.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, and look it's it's again.

461
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Speaker 4: Exactly what triggers it or how it happens, I'm not

462
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going to pretend to know. But anytime you see what

463
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we call a reflexive cycle, a cycle that feeds on itself,

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which is think about the Triple ques the NASDAC. Okay,

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everybody wants in it. Why, well they're gonna take because

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they own the best companies in world. Yeah that and

467
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it's been the best performing index over the last fifteen years.

468
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Let's not pretend like that doesn't have something to do.

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Speaker 3: With it, right, But we just keep pumping money into that.

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Speaker 4: Well now you so, now you've got a situation where

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the vast majority of money that owns the Nasdaq is

472
00:24:03,799 --> 00:24:05,720
via the Triple QETF.

473
00:24:06,319 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 3: Right, So when those people have.

474
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,839
Speaker 4: To start liquidating to pay their bills every single month,

475
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:15,160
and that amount of money is greater than the amount

476
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:17,319
of money that's going into it, you will just get

477
00:24:17,319 --> 00:24:17,880
the inverse.

478
00:24:18,279 --> 00:24:20,880
Speaker 3: And that's the way every reflexive cycle works.

479
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 4: It's not different from anything, right, the same thing you

480
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,839
enjoy on the way up will eventually become its opposite,

481
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:28,880
and you'll have to endure on the way down. Anybody

482
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:31,079
that's an adult knows that that's true in all aspects

483
00:24:31,079 --> 00:24:33,559
of life, and it's through in investing as well. But

484
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:36,759
like I said, where my biggest thing. Here's what I

485
00:24:36,839 --> 00:24:40,960
think will happen eventually, and I think that this year

486
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:44,599
is a microcosm. We have been so blinded by the

487
00:24:44,759 --> 00:24:47,240
largest and longest bull market in the history of the

488
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:50,440
United States that people think it's the only market left

489
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:51,960
in the world. And they go, that's not true. And

490
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:55,079
I go show me your portfolio. You're ninety eight percent

491
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:57,279
US equities. You can say you don't think it's the

492
00:24:57,279 --> 00:25:00,559
only market in the world. Your money says something differently, right,

493
00:25:00,799 --> 00:25:02,759
And so what we're trying to tell people's look, nobody

494
00:25:02,759 --> 00:25:04,559
can tell you whether this is going to create some

495
00:25:04,599 --> 00:25:07,240
big market collapse or anything like that. But what I

496
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:10,039
do think will happen in some way, shape or form

497
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:12,279
to some magnitude and we'll see it. And like I said,

498
00:25:12,319 --> 00:25:14,880
I see it happening so far this year. All of

499
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:16,599
a sudden, you look at it this year and out

500
00:25:16,599 --> 00:25:18,839
of the forty top performing markets in the world, the

501
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:22,359
US ranks like thirty fourth or thirty fifth, Right, So

502
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,880
why I just think the valuation spread's gotten way too big,

503
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:27,519
And I think there's a lot of low hanging fruit

504
00:25:27,559 --> 00:25:29,839
out there and everybody is so bold up on US

505
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:32,480
equities that in my opinion, they're not seeing the forest

506
00:25:32,519 --> 00:25:35,240
for the trees. Now at the beginning of the year,

507
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:37,640
I would say that that was more of a prognostication

508
00:25:37,759 --> 00:25:40,359
on my part. Look at US this year, you know,

509
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:44,039
outperforming the market by almost fourteen fifteen percent, so it's

510
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:49,359
clearly working. And the thing we're excited about is the

511
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:52,160
valuation gap I see is just as stunning as it

512
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:53,880
was in the beginning of the year. So you know,

513
00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:56,519
I think this opportunity is in the first inning. And

514
00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:00,359
you know, worst case scenario, like people are like, how

515
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:02,279
bad could it be? I don't think it'll be this bad.

516
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:04,920
But a good example of this would be Japan, right,

517
00:26:05,799 --> 00:26:08,400
Japan had a similar market dynamic. Everybody in the world

518
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:11,599
was dumping money into Japan in the eighties. Their market

519
00:26:11,599 --> 00:26:14,480
topped out the nik at forty and nineteen eighty nine.

520
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:16,839
It didn't get back there until a year ago. Yeah,

521
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:21,400
thirty five years later. Right now, Again, the US is different.

522
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:23,359
I don't think the US is going to underform you know,

523
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:24,680
much of the rest of the world for the next

524
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,079
thirty five years, but for the next five to ten

525
00:26:27,519 --> 00:26:31,400
it probably should, and it most likely will, given you know,

526
00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:34,039
looking at history, so you know, looking at a lot

527
00:26:34,039 --> 00:26:36,960
of people. When you consider inflation, the prospects of inflation

528
00:26:37,079 --> 00:26:40,680
going forward, and you think about US markets underperforming, that

529
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:43,240
could create quite a problem. Let's say the US market

530
00:26:43,279 --> 00:26:45,319
averages four percent a year for the next ten years,

531
00:26:45,519 --> 00:26:48,680
which would be actually really good performance considering the run

532
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:51,599
it's tattle of the last fifteen Well, if inflation's running

533
00:26:51,599 --> 00:26:55,160
at six average over the next ten years, you're making

534
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:57,160
four you just got smoked.

535
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:00,279
Speaker 3: You got smoked. Right. Oh.

536
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:03,920
Speaker 4: Meanwhile, you look at all these opportunities you've gotten other markets,

537
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:08,200
precious metals, commodity stocks, and nobody wants there's plenty of

538
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:10,440
ways to avoid that, and I think there's plenty of

539
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:11,880
amazing opportunities out there.

540
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:13,480
Speaker 3: They're just not in the places everybody's looking.

541
00:27:13,599 --> 00:27:15,119
Speaker 1: Great way to put that. And if you like what

542
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:16,960
you've heard from Zach Distrom of Analysis, know that he

543
00:27:17,039 --> 00:27:19,519
has a podcast. Go to Know Your Riskpodcast dot com.

544
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:22,039
Sign up for that. These all over social media as well,

545
00:27:22,039 --> 00:27:23,799
but you can get this with them on a pretty

546
00:27:23,839 --> 00:27:26,759
regular basis Know Your Riskpodcast dot Com. Speaking to that,

547
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,240
Zach talked it's one of the top coders at Microsoft.

548
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:31,759
And about the Apple AI. We need to talk about that.

549
00:27:31,799 --> 00:27:34,759
We need to talk about housing. I saw an analysis

550
00:27:34,799 --> 00:27:37,000
that the average age of the first time home buyer

551
00:27:37,039 --> 00:27:40,559
in the United States of America is thirty five, and

552
00:27:40,599 --> 00:27:44,440
the average age of any buyer is fifty six in

553
00:27:44,559 --> 00:27:48,039
these sets of America and what that means. And Jadvance

554
00:27:48,079 --> 00:27:52,000
talked about housing prices. Hey, quick reminder, we're trying to

555
00:27:52,039 --> 00:27:55,759
do something really, really important for the people who run

556
00:27:55,799 --> 00:27:59,240
Alan soaps. And this is what we mean. There's no

557
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:03,839
secrets that Alan's not They all due respect to the family.

558
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,480
I love John, He's a very good friend. They could

559
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,920
not afford to purchase slots on this podcast. They don't

560
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:14,240
do the amount of money that renew does or Visible

561
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:19,119
or Bulwark or Angel Studios or optimizers. We give them

562
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,880
the slots and they pay us. But because I love

563
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:24,960
the mission of Alan's, which is to employ people like

564
00:28:25,039 --> 00:28:28,960
Alan who is nonverbal, because it's expressed by his placement

565
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,880
on the autism spectrum. He's got these physical challenges. His

566
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:35,119
brother Ian is impacted by autism. That's the genesis of

567
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:38,680
the soap company, and it exists to employ people like that,

568
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:41,920
and that's what we do. The soap is made in America.

569
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:45,240
It's all natural. I challenge you to find a better family.

570
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:48,799
Three generations of soap making expertise the family they partner with.

571
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,359
Here's the special thing we're trying to do. John was

572
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:53,480
kind enough to share with us that he has decided

573
00:28:53,519 --> 00:28:57,039
to stop fighting cancer. He knows he's going to Jesus.

574
00:28:57,480 --> 00:29:00,400
He's trying to focus on these last however month many

575
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:03,160
months the Lord gives him with his family. I want

576
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,160
you to just examine your heart. You've heard us talk

577
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:08,599
about Alan's. If you haven't tried this soap yet, all

578
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:11,839
I ask is you try it and if you love

579
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:14,039
it or like it, it's as good as what you buy.

580
00:29:14,079 --> 00:29:17,920
Now convert become a subscriber to the soap. This a

581
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:21,559
way when John's wife starts running the company. She comes

582
00:29:21,599 --> 00:29:25,359
in with predictable revenues. But I please, I beg you.

583
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:28,400
If the soap is not what you want, do not

584
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:31,440
buy it. This is not a charity. Okay, go to

585
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:34,519
Alan soaps dot com slash todd. That's Alan Soaps dot

586
00:29:34,559 --> 00:29:38,720
com slash todd. So you zach I had a conversation

587
00:29:38,839 --> 00:29:42,079
with one of the lead coders at Microsoft's AI team,

588
00:29:42,119 --> 00:29:44,720
and among the things you talked about, you asked him

589
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:47,519
about the story Apple quietly builds chat GPT rival with

590
00:29:47,599 --> 00:29:51,599
new answers search term and he laughed in response to this,

591
00:29:51,799 --> 00:29:54,480
So talk about that laughter, but also this conversation about

592
00:29:54,519 --> 00:29:56,880
Microsoft and AI and where that's all headed.

593
00:29:57,759 --> 00:29:59,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, pretty fascinating.

594
00:29:59,359 --> 00:30:01,480
Speaker 4: As a matter of fact, we're gonna have an interview

595
00:30:01,559 --> 00:30:04,640
with him that we're recording this Friday, so we're gonna

596
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:06,599
have it up on our podcast, and we're gonna really

597
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:07,440
dig into the a I.

598
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:10,359
Speaker 3: Think because he's yeah, he's he's at the nexus of it.

599
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:16,039
Speaker 4: So first, as it relates to Apple, it's kind of

600
00:30:16,079 --> 00:30:22,839
funny because Apple is really diverged from its perception, meaning

601
00:30:23,359 --> 00:30:25,400
you know, we all see Apple as this titan and

602
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:27,799
kind of think it's a, it's at the center of

603
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:28,720
all this stuff.

604
00:30:29,039 --> 00:30:29,799
Speaker 3: It really isn't.

605
00:30:29,839 --> 00:30:32,400
Speaker 4: They've fallen out and and and there was the announcement

606
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:35,400
about them creating their own rival to chat GPT. Within

607
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:37,119
about a week or two they came out and said

608
00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:41,200
that they were now considering using Gemini via chrome cast

609
00:30:41,759 --> 00:30:44,240
in concert with Google. And and I just think that

610
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:47,079
that's from what he was saying. He just said, look,

611
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:51,200
in the industry, nobody takes them serious whatsoever, and nobody

612
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,519
even considers them to be in the race. So and

613
00:30:53,559 --> 00:30:56,079
he goes, quite honestly, unless they were to buy somebody,

614
00:30:56,119 --> 00:30:59,720
they're too they're too far out, they're too far gone,

615
00:30:59,839 --> 00:31:02,079
and they don't have the cash pile advantage that they

616
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:04,359
used to. I mean, Apple was the first of those

617
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:10,240
tech companies to really build that that crazy amount of cash,

618
00:31:10,279 --> 00:31:12,319
you know, in the hundreds of billions on the balance sheet.

619
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:16,680
And when you look around today, even if they want

620
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:20,400
to buy somebody, it's not a clear solution about whether

621
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,000
they'd be able to. Meaning you've got antitrust issues that

622
00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:25,440
they'd be running into, and then there'd be competition. Like

623
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:28,599
I said, they do, they do. They are not the

624
00:31:28,759 --> 00:31:31,640
giant behemoth on the block. Anymore that nobody else can

625
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:34,039
contend with, you know, like, for instance, you know I

626
00:31:34,079 --> 00:31:36,400
was telling you not too long ago. You know, most

627
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:39,000
people are not aware of the fact that Google produces

628
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:43,240
substantially more revenue and profit every year than Apple does, right,

629
00:31:43,359 --> 00:31:46,240
And most people are not aware of that, yep, And

630
00:31:46,319 --> 00:31:51,839
so anyway, I just just it's more clue to My

631
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:54,799
biggest thing about bringing that up is that I look

632
00:31:54,839 --> 00:31:57,759
at these retail portfolios all the time, and a lot

633
00:31:57,839 --> 00:31:59,880
of people have owned Apple, and a lot of people

634
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:03,799
done wonderfully with Apple. Then you look at it and go, okay,

635
00:32:03,799 --> 00:32:07,160
because they've done wonderfully, They've got this huge chunk of

636
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:07,880
Apple stock.

637
00:32:08,319 --> 00:32:11,440
Speaker 3: It's just a too big a portion of their portfolio.

638
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:14,319
Speaker 4: And our biggest message to them is, look, nobody including me,

639
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:16,400
can tell you exactly what the price of the stock

640
00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:18,240
is going to do in any given period of time.

641
00:32:18,599 --> 00:32:21,079
But what I will say is that all the reasons

642
00:32:21,119 --> 00:32:24,160
that you owned Apple for they're gone. Okay, it's not

643
00:32:24,279 --> 00:32:26,599
the same company, it's not doing the same thing. They

644
00:32:26,599 --> 00:32:29,519
are seeding market share to Samsung, they are seating market

645
00:32:29,599 --> 00:32:33,039
share to Huawei, They're seeding market shared to the Google Pixel.

646
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:35,960
Speaker 3: Okay, and they when you look at.

647
00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:39,240
Speaker 4: Their company, they're a one product company, so seating market

648
00:32:39,279 --> 00:32:41,359
share is kind of a problem. I don't think they're

649
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:43,920
going away anytime soon. I'm just looking at a company

650
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:46,880
that just does not justify or earn the current price

651
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:51,000
it's trading at now. On the flip ai side, talking

652
00:32:51,039 --> 00:32:56,559
about AI in general, the the you know, everybody is

653
00:32:56,680 --> 00:33:00,480
up on the AI conversation. I don't think anybody realizes

654
00:33:00,559 --> 00:33:04,279
how fast this trend's coming down the pipe. So, like

655
00:33:04,319 --> 00:33:06,240
we were talking about where we use, you and I

656
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:09,000
have discussed this before, but you talk about Moore's law, right,

657
00:33:09,039 --> 00:33:11,319
the doubling of compute power every eighteen months.

658
00:33:11,559 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 3: These LM models are doubling their compute every three to

659
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:18,440
four months, and people are like, well, what does that mean.

660
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:20,640
Speaker 4: I'm like, this is one of the tough things to

661
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:24,519
convey because human beings are uniquely bad and understanding exponential growth.

662
00:33:25,039 --> 00:33:28,400
What that means is you're looking at the capability of

663
00:33:28,839 --> 00:33:32,079
LMS doing what they're doing today, and you're looking at

664
00:33:32,119 --> 00:33:35,799
just three years in the future of that being. You know,

665
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:39,640
eight to ten x what it is right now, eight

666
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:41,839
to ten x what it is right now.

667
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 1: And maybe just two to three years maybe one way

668
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:46,200
to compute this for people is to understand that with

669
00:33:46,359 --> 00:33:50,200
each exponential growth right cycle, there are new industries that

670
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:54,440
can eat, there are new jobs it consumes, right, And

671
00:33:54,759 --> 00:33:56,799
you think, well, AI is never going to compete with

672
00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:59,200
you know, you're never going to have an AI air

673
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:05,440
conditioning tech. It's not never, it's when, it's when. And

674
00:34:05,519 --> 00:34:07,799
you could say, well, that's that requires robots and stuff

675
00:34:07,799 --> 00:34:09,519
that can come into people's house. That can't happen for

676
00:34:09,519 --> 00:34:14,119
a long time. Yeah, when you look at exponential growth, No, no,

677
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:15,280
that's not true.

678
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:16,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, grow growth.

679
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:20,119
Speaker 4: The growth curves that we've all looked at economically need

680
00:34:20,119 --> 00:34:21,079
to be thrown out the window.

681
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:22,679
Speaker 3: Right, it's no longer bound by that.

682
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:25,920
Speaker 4: And here's why you're going to have these lms that

683
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:30,599
are getting massive compute gains and function functionality gains on

684
00:34:30,639 --> 00:34:33,119
a daily basis, and they're going to be working on

685
00:34:33,159 --> 00:34:37,679
these problems twenty four hours a day without blinking. Okay,

686
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:41,119
So to give you an idea of what this means,

687
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:45,639
he was telling me that a year ago they were

688
00:34:45,679 --> 00:34:49,400
looking at lms one year ago and saying, and for

689
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:51,679
those of you that don't know large large language models,

690
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:55,840
all these things are LMS all these AI programs. A

691
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:59,960
year ago, it was on par with a junior code,

692
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:01,360
a new coder.

693
00:35:01,079 --> 00:35:02,440
Speaker 3: Low on the Totem Paul pull.

694
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:05,360
Speaker 4: Fast forward one year, it's the best coder they've gotten

695
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:05,840
in the company.

696
00:35:06,039 --> 00:35:08,800
Speaker 1: And that's in one year, right, And now a year

697
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:12,079
from now, it's not even a race.

698
00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:15,800
Speaker 3: No, So, and I thought this was another interesting thing.

699
00:35:16,559 --> 00:35:18,239
Speaker 4: You know what he told me. He told me that

700
00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:20,280
his daughter was taking coding classes.

701
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:22,960
Speaker 3: He took her out of the class. Yeah, he said,

702
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:23,840
it's pointless.

703
00:35:24,119 --> 00:35:27,719
Speaker 1: So, and I'm I can't stand AI for many reasons.

704
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:30,280
And yet I got to tell you I'm looking into

705
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:34,880
taking AI classes because I'm thinking about, Hey, if this

706
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:38,280
stuff's all widely available and it's just prompts and cues,

707
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:42,400
like God's given me a relatively decent creativity, Yes, why

708
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:44,159
don't I just sit down and think about some problems

709
00:35:44,159 --> 00:35:46,800
that AI could solve and create something like this? I

710
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:49,719
also talk and we could do this. We could take

711
00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:52,039
enough of these shows and feed them into an AI

712
00:35:53,119 --> 00:35:56,599
and that AI could analyze them. And I'm relatively certain

713
00:35:56,639 --> 00:35:58,280
that we could have let's say, half of our shows

714
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:02,159
per week done by AI. And Alex is nodding his

715
00:36:02,159 --> 00:36:04,199
head we're actually, Zach, we're actually thinking about doing this,

716
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:06,840
just to see what an AI would do with enough

717
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:09,639
Todd Herman show is fed into it. Do it Todd

718
00:36:09,639 --> 00:36:13,000
Herman Show, based upon here's the news items produce one.

719
00:36:13,079 --> 00:36:16,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, I look, look, if it wasn't a if it

720
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:21,400
wasn't I think it could produce I think it could

721
00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:24,199
produce probably surprisingly good results.

722
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:24,960
Speaker 1: That scares me.

723
00:36:26,079 --> 00:36:28,639
Speaker 4: It scares me too. But here here's the flip side

724
00:36:28,639 --> 00:36:34,719
of that argument. You are you are multiple steps away.

725
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:37,920
And and there are some people that question whether it's

726
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:42,800
even attainable, which is remember these lms, no matter how

727
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:46,920
crazy it is what they do, there's a huge gap

728
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:53,440
between what they're doing now and creativity right totally, and

729
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:56,639
and that and and and the exponential growth on the

730
00:36:56,679 --> 00:37:01,719
compute side may not lead to the emergence of creativity.

731
00:37:02,119 --> 00:37:04,360
Speaker 1: I don't think it can because I think creativity is

732
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:07,719
a bridge to God, so I would agree. I've often

733
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:10,519
said our conscience is a bridge to God's. I think

734
00:37:10,559 --> 00:37:14,280
creativity is that because God creates, Satan can't create, so

735
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:16,320
he can distort it, he can depress, he can distract.

736
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:21,960
Computers can amalgamate code come and malgamate large language models

737
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:24,960
are looking at everything ever written by humans and then

738
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:28,360
eventually by machines. All roll into that. But it couldn't say,

739
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:30,760
invent a new flavor of ice cream. I mean it

740
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:32,480
could take all sorts of flavors of ice cream and

741
00:37:32,519 --> 00:37:36,400
say this. My daughter's an artist, and she's recently started

742
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:38,559
selling a lot of her work, and I'm begging her,

743
00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:42,760
in your art studio, make sure it's always on camera, right,

744
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:44,400
I mean, yeah, have a place where you can leave

745
00:37:44,559 --> 00:37:46,440
and not be on camera, but let people see you

746
00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:49,239
creating your work. Create a form of art you can

747
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:51,280
create in front of people, you know. And I'm thinking

748
00:37:51,320 --> 00:37:53,360
for me, I think God's telling me to go out

749
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:56,480
and do more live events. You know, we can go

750
00:37:56,639 --> 00:37:58,960
put you know, you've seen it. I mean, we can

751
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:00,559
put a lot of people in a row, praise God

752
00:38:00,559 --> 00:38:02,480
because the lords of the audience. And I was just

753
00:38:02,599 --> 00:38:06,000
in two below and you know with American Family Radio

754
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,039
we had two or three thousand people show up for

755
00:38:09,039 --> 00:38:12,239
that event. So wow, Yeah, I want to go do

756
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:15,280
more of that because a I can't shake a hand, right,

757
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:16,519
it can't do these things et.

758
00:38:16,519 --> 00:38:21,239
Speaker 3: Cetera, like a like a Todd Herman road show. Yeah, right,

759
00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:24,639
And and and I would be a happy sponsor.

760
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:27,880
Speaker 1: Well i'd be. I want you to come, well.

761
00:38:27,719 --> 00:38:29,400
Speaker 4: I mean yeah, I mean I would love to come too,

762
00:38:29,639 --> 00:38:31,039
especially somewhere like too.

763
00:38:31,079 --> 00:38:35,320
Speaker 1: I've always wanted to go to Tupelou Dude, you're on. Okay,

764
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:37,639
We're going to arrange just to go to Tupelo, Mississippi.

765
00:38:37,679 --> 00:38:41,519
We'll take you down there for that. It is and no,

766
00:38:41,639 --> 00:38:43,719
that's and like Elvis is all over that place. You

767
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:46,840
can talk to people to this day who knew the

768
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:50,039
Presley family and you could actually run into them like

769
00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:52,599
you can run into people who knew the pro Oh yeah, yeah,

770
00:38:52,639 --> 00:38:55,039
knew the Presley's. And it's it's you know, it's it's

771
00:38:55,079 --> 00:38:57,599
a pretty interesting place. I got to get to a

772
00:38:57,639 --> 00:38:59,199
couple of different things. Is I feel like time is

773
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:01,440
fleeting all the sudd and it's just gone so quickly.

774
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:04,239
We have we sold this from you free live webinar,

775
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:06,559
and I know that the lice I got to note

776
00:39:06,559 --> 00:39:09,400
from your IP people, your patentrol people, thanks a lot.

777
00:39:09,679 --> 00:39:11,119
Speaker 3: So yeah, we're gonna give you the pins.

778
00:39:11,159 --> 00:39:16,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'd be shelling out some. So we're doing a

779
00:39:16,119 --> 00:39:18,599
free live webinar with the people from renew dot Healthcare

780
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:21,079
this is here's how you go sign up. You go

781
00:39:21,119 --> 00:39:23,840
to join stem cell talks dot com. Uh take there

782
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:27,000
your questions about your specific health circumstances. I didn't know

783
00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:31,480
how well they have done in dealing with people who

784
00:39:31,519 --> 00:39:34,880
have myocarditis and peracarditis. I had no idea that the

785
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:36,679
stem cells can help with that. That's the sort of

786
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:40,320
called long covid stuff. Much more likely the long injection

787
00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:43,679
stuff that they've had incredible luck with that lung conditions.

788
00:39:43,679 --> 00:39:46,440
I didn't know that because we're getting all these questions

789
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:49,400
from people that I never thought of asking neurological stuff.

790
00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:51,559
I knew we've had success with that. So if you're

791
00:39:51,559 --> 00:39:54,280
wondering if stem cells can help your particular brand of arthritis,

792
00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:58,400
neurological issue, respiratory issue, go ask it. Joined stem cell

793
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:01,119
talks dot com can call him if you like. Six

794
00:40:01,199 --> 00:40:04,159
oh two four two eight four thousand and this free

795
00:40:04,199 --> 00:40:07,000
live webinar September eleventh, eleven am Pacific. I'll be there

796
00:40:07,119 --> 00:40:09,920
the least important to the people, Doctor Navarro will be there.

797
00:40:10,039 --> 00:40:12,880
He's a specialist on regenitive therapy in the spine. We're

798
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:16,039
gonna show you side by side charts. Zach site charts.

799
00:40:16,119 --> 00:40:20,159
I love charts side by side surgery versus stem cells.

800
00:40:20,239 --> 00:40:21,880
What are the results of this? And we're going to

801
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:24,000
give you a tour of the clinic and you'll get

802
00:40:24,039 --> 00:40:26,840
to ask all sorts of questions. Plus everybody who goes

803
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:29,159
through the full webinar you're going to be including in

804
00:40:29,199 --> 00:40:31,719
a drawing for one week's stay at the Beautiful Meal

805
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:36,280
Hotel and Nbavarta. So it's joined stem cell talks dot com.

806
00:40:36,840 --> 00:40:39,360
So Zach, I got to get to the thing about

807
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:43,679
the immigration stuff in your city there, but on on housing.

808
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:47,079
A mutual friend of ours, in fact, you've we've had

809
00:40:47,079 --> 00:40:48,639
dinner with Tom. He likes to look at charts. His

810
00:40:48,679 --> 00:40:51,280
name is Tom Shaeffer. Dear friend of mine. Tom posted

811
00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:53,719
this on Facebook. If you want to see a national tragedy,

812
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:56,800
look at this. The average age of first time homebuyers

813
00:40:56,840 --> 00:41:00,000
the United States is now thirty eight, and for all

814
00:41:00,159 --> 00:41:03,159
buyers it's fifty six. Part of this is demographics. The

815
00:41:03,159 --> 00:41:06,440
boomer generation swamped with everything. They're primary holder of all

816
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:09,079
asset classes from houses. You just said this zac to

817
00:41:09,159 --> 00:41:11,920
the stock market, but they also sat back and questionally

818
00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:15,719
supported the stupid, ridiculous Fed monetary policies centralized banking lots

819
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:17,920
which have artists wild drive, been up the cost of

820
00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:20,880
hard assets and consumer goods, and it made regional banks

821
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:24,280
somewhat of an anachronism. That children of boomers, my children

822
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:26,559
and their peers are faced with just getting by paying

823
00:41:26,599 --> 00:41:30,079
rent and meeting their basic needs, even with good paying jobs,

824
00:41:30,079 --> 00:41:33,599
not being able to save or invest. That is not

825
00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:37,920
a beautiful future. Jadvan said, A had a conversation about this.

826
00:41:38,159 --> 00:41:40,039
But first of all, what you responded this because Jadvan

827
00:41:40,119 --> 00:41:46,000
said something about housing markets. So in that scenario, Tom paints,

828
00:41:46,039 --> 00:41:47,880
it's not a pretty scenario. Is there a way to

829
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:48,559
turn that around?

830
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:53,440
Speaker 3: I mean, yes, there is.

831
00:41:55,679 --> 00:41:59,440
Speaker 4: It's it's gonna be tricky, and I and I'm I hesitate,

832
00:41:59,679 --> 00:42:01,559
and I'm not looking forward to what I think the

833
00:42:01,639 --> 00:42:04,480
solutions will be, because I would assume the solutions are

834
00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:09,639
going to be more formed or more embodiments, more forms

835
00:42:09,639 --> 00:42:12,960
of handouts, more forms of subsidies, which one only make

836
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:16,599
the problem worse over the long run. It and it

837
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:19,760
actually points to something that I would really like to see.

838
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:21,840
It feels to me like the administration is kind of

839
00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:24,559
lost focus on this a little bit recently, which is

840
00:42:24,599 --> 00:42:28,920
the peeling back of regulations. They've done it to some degree,

841
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:32,280
but it feels like we've really hit a roll in

842
00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:37,280
that process recently. I think that you need to start

843
00:42:37,679 --> 00:42:41,599
doing things like they're doing despite certain parts of the

844
00:42:41,679 --> 00:42:45,360
legal system fighting them, which is you got to start

845
00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:50,159
holding individual states in cities responsible for their own policies.

846
00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:51,239
Speaker 3: In one way, shape or form.

847
00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:54,039
Speaker 4: I mean, because you know, you look at what they're

848
00:42:54,159 --> 00:42:56,760
enacting up here in Seattle, and it really.

849
00:42:57,960 --> 00:42:58,280
Speaker 3: People.

850
00:42:58,840 --> 00:43:00,679
Speaker 4: You know, I think people have a hard time understanding

851
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:04,559
it because it really is not a political issue. It's

852
00:43:04,559 --> 00:43:07,400
been made a political issue, but it's not. And what

853
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:11,559
I mean by that is, take away who you want

854
00:43:11,559 --> 00:43:15,599
to vote for, who you think, remove all political ideology,

855
00:43:15,679 --> 00:43:18,519
and when you look at the proposals to address quote

856
00:43:18,599 --> 00:43:22,880
unquote expensive housing, anybody that has even a baseline understanding

857
00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:25,239
of economics just begins laughing because you're like, that's going

858
00:43:25,320 --> 00:43:27,119
to do the exact opposite of what you're talking about.

859
00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:31,360
And it's just like it's this broken thing in the

860
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:34,119
minds of so many people in this country, particularly on

861
00:43:34,199 --> 00:43:37,880
the left, where it's like they have this faith in

862
00:43:37,960 --> 00:43:42,840
these socialist policies that have never worked at the expense

863
00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:46,920
of capitalist policies that always have Now like, can those

864
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:50,280
capitalist policies get overplayed and people who take advantage of Yes,

865
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:53,679
But the answer is not to go grab something broken

866
00:43:53,840 --> 00:43:55,039
off of the trash.

867
00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:58,079
Speaker 3: Heap of history, right, And that's what we keep doing.

868
00:43:58,599 --> 00:44:03,239
Speaker 4: And you know, people just need to wake up and say, look,

869
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:05,000
these things have been tried.

870
00:44:05,199 --> 00:44:07,679
Speaker 3: They don't work. Like you look what mom, Donnie's doing

871
00:44:07,679 --> 00:44:08,159
in New York.

872
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:10,400
Speaker 4: Every single thing he's proposed is going to increase the

873
00:44:10,440 --> 00:44:11,239
cost of real estate.

874
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:12,880
Speaker 3: I mean it's not there's no secret.

875
00:44:13,079 --> 00:44:15,440
Speaker 1: There was just this study that finally wrapped up. They

876
00:44:15,679 --> 00:44:19,760
tried these universal basic income tests, right, and did you

877
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:20,880
read the study yet?

878
00:44:21,159 --> 00:44:21,559
Speaker 3: Ah?

879
00:44:21,599 --> 00:44:24,880
Speaker 1: Okay, so it's studies save dot org, great websites. The

880
00:44:25,079 --> 00:44:28,400
people who around the study are shocked and they're wondering

881
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:30,679
if they did the study the right way. People who

882
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:35,599
got universal basic income reported more depression, more sadness, and

883
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:42,519
a loss of a sense of meaning. Cocker right, cocker right,

884
00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:45,119
Just the checks showed up in the mail that you

885
00:44:45,159 --> 00:44:45,960
did nothing to earn.

886
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:49,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, it's it's it's it's a shocker.

887
00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:50,119
Speaker 1: Here.

888
00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:51,880
Speaker 4: Here's the other thing that we have to deal with,

889
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,119
and this is a this is a really unpopular thing

890
00:44:54,159 --> 00:44:54,639
to bring.

891
00:44:54,519 --> 00:44:56,119
Speaker 3: Up, but it is what it is.

892
00:44:58,239 --> 00:45:00,519
Speaker 4: The issue that we have with young peop people being

893
00:45:00,559 --> 00:45:03,039
able to afford housing or even be able to afford

894
00:45:03,039 --> 00:45:06,599
their lives. It is not purely economical. Okay, you've got

895
00:45:06,599 --> 00:45:09,199
to You've got a batch and I'm speaking about mostly

896
00:45:09,239 --> 00:45:11,960
around the kids coming out of college. Right now, you

897
00:45:11,960 --> 00:45:14,840
have you have a group of college kids coming out

898
00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:17,280
and and a fairly large group, right it extends.

899
00:45:17,320 --> 00:45:18,960
Speaker 3: It's not just one year, but you know, they're a

900
00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:20,199
fairly large swath.

901
00:45:20,639 --> 00:45:23,079
Speaker 4: But I will just tell you as an employer, you've

902
00:45:23,079 --> 00:45:25,119
got kids coming out of college that are less capable

903
00:45:25,159 --> 00:45:27,639
of doing the job or managing in the adult world

904
00:45:27,679 --> 00:45:30,039
than any group of kids we've ever had come out.

905
00:45:30,360 --> 00:45:32,800
Speaker 3: Do I think that there are a lost cause? Absolutely not.

906
00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:36,559
Speaker 4: They'll figure out eventually and they'll become productive like every

907
00:45:36,599 --> 00:45:41,199
other generation in history has. But one part about it

908
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:45,480
you don't hear anybody discussing. Is part of this, part

909
00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:48,119
of this housing problem, and part of this you know,

910
00:45:48,599 --> 00:45:51,639
expensive life and inflation problem. Part of it goes back

911
00:45:51,639 --> 00:45:53,639
to our educational system being completely broken.

912
00:45:53,920 --> 00:45:59,199
Speaker 1: Broke an educational system teaching people to work right at

913
00:45:59,280 --> 00:46:03,159
jobs anymore in ways that are not helpful anymore, and

914
00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:06,360
further and further and further not even that teaching them

915
00:46:06,360 --> 00:46:11,440
to be good liquors of the party boot, Yeah that way, well,

916
00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:12,239
and look at look.

917
00:46:12,360 --> 00:46:14,239
Speaker 4: Like I mean, for instance, let's take a look at

918
00:46:14,280 --> 00:46:16,679
AI right now, and look at the fact that none

919
00:46:16,719 --> 00:46:20,639
of their attitudes toward college have have been updated. If

920
00:46:20,679 --> 00:46:23,679
you listen to these people talk like they think that

921
00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:25,920
all they have to do is get people in college

922
00:46:25,960 --> 00:46:28,440
and everything's fine.

923
00:46:28,840 --> 00:46:31,280
Speaker 1: Why so I can compete with a supercomputer that can

924
00:46:31,320 --> 00:46:33,440
do the work that would take me a year, that

925
00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:35,559
it can do it in five seconds, or.

926
00:46:35,480 --> 00:46:38,679
Speaker 3: Basket weaving or whatever, right right, like, whatever it is.

927
00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:41,719
Speaker 4: And you hear these people go and every kid will

928
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:44,599
have a college education and that's the way the world

929
00:46:44,639 --> 00:46:48,199
should be. And you go, look, that is the stupidest

930
00:46:48,239 --> 00:46:50,360
statement on the face of the earth. First of all,

931
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:55,880
if everybody has it, it's not elite a b What

932
00:46:56,760 --> 00:47:00,199
is the cost of that? Right yeah, If it didn't

933
00:47:00,199 --> 00:47:02,480
cost him anything, great, glad you had a good four

934
00:47:02,559 --> 00:47:05,239
years eating bad cafeteria food and drink it too much beer?

935
00:47:05,360 --> 00:47:07,719
Speaker 3: Right well, what is the upside of that? Does it

936
00:47:07,840 --> 00:47:09,840
help you earn anymore? Does help you do anymore.

937
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:13,639
Speaker 4: No, and like it's do Some people still need to

938
00:47:13,639 --> 00:47:17,320
go to college, of course, but the vast majority, especially

939
00:47:17,320 --> 00:47:19,960
with the emergence of LLMS, I'd sit there and go

940
00:47:20,239 --> 00:47:23,519
learn how to think, learn how to work, get like,

941
00:47:24,159 --> 00:47:26,960
you know, pick up some Socrates and some Aristotle, read

942
00:47:27,039 --> 00:47:27,920
some Machiavelli.

943
00:47:28,239 --> 00:47:30,519
Speaker 3: Let's teach you how to think. Let's teach you how

944
00:47:30,519 --> 00:47:32,920
to you know, give you a better understanding of history

945
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:35,440
in civics. Let's teach you some trades. Let's teach you

946
00:47:35,440 --> 00:47:36,400
how to be an entrepreneur.

947
00:47:37,039 --> 00:47:39,480
Speaker 4: Now we're just gonna keep pumping you through the same decrepit,

948
00:47:39,559 --> 00:47:43,519
broken system that's creating these kids that come out more

949
00:47:43,519 --> 00:47:46,559
confused than they went in, with no real prospects, and

950
00:47:46,920 --> 00:47:48,599
meanwhile they're a quarter of a million dollars in debt.

951
00:47:48,599 --> 00:47:50,119
Speaker 1: It's yeh to travel or maybe go back to the

952
00:47:50,119 --> 00:47:52,760
Bible and make your life about building the Kingdom of Heaven.

953
00:47:53,519 --> 00:47:56,159
I well, maybe that's going to be part of this.

954
00:47:56,239 --> 00:47:58,320
I promise I would get to this, So I'm going

955
00:47:58,360 --> 00:48:03,039
to pay this off. The EVP said about housing. This

956
00:48:03,119 --> 00:48:05,639
is jd Vance and it's related to Zach something you

957
00:48:05,719 --> 00:48:08,440
said about your air of the world and housing, getting

958
00:48:08,440 --> 00:48:10,199
more expensive to fix the rig system.

959
00:48:10,519 --> 00:48:12,800
Speaker 6: You asked that question, You've got to understand the root

960
00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:16,280
causes here. Why did housing get so unaffordable for American citizens?

961
00:48:16,559 --> 00:48:17,559
Speaker 1: Two big problems.

962
00:48:17,639 --> 00:48:18,079
Speaker 3: Number One, I.

963
00:48:18,079 --> 00:48:20,880
Speaker 6: Already talked about interest rates were too high. Number Two,

964
00:48:21,400 --> 00:48:24,960
you had way too many people in this country who

965
00:48:25,000 --> 00:48:28,920
are competing against American citizens for scarce homes, and that's

966
00:48:28,960 --> 00:48:32,000
the illegal immigration problem. Why is housing leveled off over

967
00:48:32,039 --> 00:48:33,039
the past six months.

968
00:48:33,159 --> 00:48:34,480
Speaker 1: I really believe the main.

969
00:48:34,360 --> 00:48:37,639
Speaker 6: Driver is you've had negative net migration into the United

970
00:48:37,639 --> 00:48:40,679
States for the first time in sixty years in this country.

971
00:48:40,960 --> 00:48:43,920
You cannot flood the United States of America with twenty

972
00:48:44,079 --> 00:48:47,000
thirty forty million people who have no legal right to

973
00:48:47,039 --> 00:48:50,760
be here, have them compete against young American families for

974
00:48:50,840 --> 00:48:51,599
homes and not.

975
00:48:51,559 --> 00:48:54,559
Speaker 1: Expect the price to skyrocket. It's a simple as supplying demand.

976
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:57,880
You increase the demand, you're going to increase the price.

977
00:48:58,280 --> 00:49:00,119
Speaker 6: And the final thing I want to say here is

978
00:49:00,119 --> 00:49:03,360
we're working on issues right now in the White House

979
00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:05,400
every single day because we want to make it easier

980
00:49:05,400 --> 00:49:07,519
to build homes too. Because in the same way that

981
00:49:07,559 --> 00:49:11,760
getting illegal aliens out of this country means fewer people competing.

982
00:49:11,280 --> 00:49:12,760
Speaker 1: Against young American families.

983
00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:14,920
Speaker 6: We also want to increase the housing stock in this

984
00:49:14,960 --> 00:49:16,519
country by making it easier to build.

985
00:49:16,559 --> 00:49:19,360
Speaker 1: So we're working on all this stuff. But man, we

986
00:49:19,440 --> 00:49:20,199
got to be honest.

987
00:49:20,440 --> 00:49:24,039
Speaker 6: The system was rigged against Americans, especially young Americans, for

988
00:49:24,039 --> 00:49:27,000
a very long time. We're making progress to unbring it,

989
00:49:27,079 --> 00:49:28,000
but it's going to take some time.

990
00:49:28,039 --> 00:49:30,480
Speaker 1: That's not given enough attention what Jadvance says there about

991
00:49:30,519 --> 00:49:33,599
net migration, first time in sixty years we've seen a

992
00:49:33,639 --> 00:49:37,440
negative in your part of the country. Not only are

993
00:49:37,519 --> 00:49:41,320
there housing guarantees. Housing is a right. Everybody gets to

994
00:49:41,360 --> 00:49:43,000
have a house, even if your house is a tent

995
00:49:43,079 --> 00:49:44,920
and an RV until we can move you into building.

996
00:49:45,119 --> 00:49:49,519
Not only that, they use COVID to basically steal hotels

997
00:49:49,880 --> 00:49:53,480
move people into that. The appetite for that still exists.

998
00:49:53,480 --> 00:49:56,840
They're doing this with illegal immigrants. And then there's this.

999
00:49:57,239 --> 00:49:59,280
You ran this poll, and this is what I wanted

1000
00:49:59,320 --> 00:50:01,280
to ask you about. My contention is that drives up

1001
00:50:01,320 --> 00:50:04,760
housing costs. You put this on your own Twitter, my friends,

1002
00:50:04,800 --> 00:50:08,039
your friend Ari Hoffman, successful talk show hosts in Seattle

1003
00:50:08,079 --> 00:50:11,119
at five seventy KVII, the affiliate for my weekends national

1004
00:50:11,199 --> 00:50:15,320
show on radio America. He posted this from Como News,

1005
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:18,599
and by the way, Como News is pretty leftist, not

1006
00:50:18,679 --> 00:50:20,639
as bad as most of them, it's it's actually probably

1007
00:50:20,679 --> 00:50:23,840
the most decent there. How do you feel about ICE

1008
00:50:23,920 --> 00:50:28,920
increasing operations in the Seattle area? Seventy three percent approve,

1009
00:50:29,719 --> 00:50:33,920
twenty five percent disapprove, two percent say each case is different.

1010
00:50:34,880 --> 00:50:37,400
And this was three thousand and seven hundred and five votes,

1011
00:50:37,599 --> 00:50:40,719
even if some people voted twice, that's a decent sample size.

1012
00:50:41,360 --> 00:50:44,559
So in your part of the country, your separate country,

1013
00:50:44,679 --> 00:50:49,159
people are approving of these raids by ICE and this

1014
00:50:49,559 --> 00:50:53,320
housing dynamic sits they're fiating right there in the background,

1015
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:55,880
And I wanted to ask you this, are those things

1016
00:50:55,960 --> 00:50:59,159
connected in your mind? Jd vance about moving people out

1017
00:50:59,159 --> 00:51:01,840
of the country and housing. Do you think those are connected?

1018
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:04,079
Then a follow up question about immigration there.

1019
00:51:05,119 --> 00:51:06,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that the housing.

1020
00:51:07,039 --> 00:51:10,159
Speaker 4: I think that the housing issue is abnormally complex because

1021
00:51:10,199 --> 00:51:11,800
of what we've gone through over the last five years.

1022
00:51:11,880 --> 00:51:14,480
So what I mean by that is, at no time

1023
00:51:14,559 --> 00:51:17,880
in the history of our country have for a variety

1024
00:51:17,920 --> 00:51:21,559
of different reasons, a greater percentage of the population been

1025
00:51:21,599 --> 00:51:27,360
strongly motivated to move right. So meaning you basically took

1026
00:51:27,480 --> 00:51:31,039
like probably four to five years of typical housing activity

1027
00:51:31,079 --> 00:51:33,440
and crammed it into a year and a half. So

1028
00:51:33,760 --> 00:51:37,159
naturally you're going to have a lull on the other side. Then,

1029
00:51:37,199 --> 00:51:40,880
when you look at interest rate dynamics, interst rate dynamics

1030
00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:43,719
are playing a big role in this as well, because

1031
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:48,199
one of the reasons you've got unaffordable housing is because

1032
00:51:48,199 --> 00:51:51,840
you have so many people based off of the interest

1033
00:51:51,920 --> 00:51:56,119
rate differential meaning the price that they're currently financed versus

1034
00:51:56,159 --> 00:51:58,679
what they'd have to pay to get something else. That

1035
00:51:58,840 --> 00:52:01,559
is keeping an abnormal amount of people locked into their

1036
00:52:01,559 --> 00:52:02,159
current house.

1037
00:52:02,360 --> 00:52:02,639
Speaker 3: Yep.

1038
00:52:02,800 --> 00:52:06,039
Speaker 4: Now is the immigration situation helping any of that, No,

1039
00:52:06,199 --> 00:52:09,360
it's contributing it as well. But like many things, this

1040
00:52:09,440 --> 00:52:14,000
is a multi pronged deal. You've got normal inflationary pressures,

1041
00:52:14,039 --> 00:52:17,480
which is putting pressure on housing, so just everything is

1042
00:52:17,519 --> 00:52:19,760
sort of pushing. Here's another one that nobody's going to

1043
00:52:19,800 --> 00:52:24,639
talk about, but it is true, meaning you you underbuilt

1044
00:52:24,639 --> 00:52:31,079
housing for a decade. Now, you didn't really underbuild it

1045
00:52:31,159 --> 00:52:34,440
because what you were basically doing is absorbing the overbuilt

1046
00:52:34,440 --> 00:52:37,760
that happened in eighth nine. But bottom line is this,

1047
00:52:38,400 --> 00:52:42,119
you did not have as many new homes going up,

1048
00:52:42,239 --> 00:52:44,679
especially toward the back end over the last you know,

1049
00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:47,559
when you look at demand, you didn't have quite as

1050
00:52:47,599 --> 00:52:49,960
many houses going up anyway. You got a bunch of

1051
00:52:50,079 --> 00:52:53,119
these different things, and and and and and a bunch

1052
00:52:53,199 --> 00:52:56,519
of things kind of culminating and all pushing those, uh,

1053
00:52:56,519 --> 00:52:59,239
those price of housing, that price of housing up. But

1054
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:01,519
but what I would say to jad Evance is that

1055
00:53:01,559 --> 00:53:04,119
for the people out there that think pushing rates down

1056
00:53:04,480 --> 00:53:07,880
is going to make housing more affordable, it probably won't.

1057
00:53:08,239 --> 00:53:12,079
And the reason it won't is because interest rates are

1058
00:53:12,079 --> 00:53:16,360
a function of price. Meaning if they artificially push rates

1059
00:53:16,480 --> 00:53:21,119
lower and somehow manufacture lower interest rate loans, I would

1060
00:53:21,159 --> 00:53:23,960
expect to see housing prices resume pushing higher.

1061
00:53:24,079 --> 00:53:24,840
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1062
00:53:25,159 --> 00:53:28,199
Speaker 4: Right, So that's the other thing. I think we've pushed

1063
00:53:28,199 --> 00:53:30,519
this whole monetary policy thing about as far as we

1064
00:53:30,559 --> 00:53:35,119
can totally agree, and I just I think that we're

1065
00:53:35,199 --> 00:53:37,079
kind of at a place where we're gonna have to

1066
00:53:37,119 --> 00:53:38,119
make some more decisions.

1067
00:53:38,199 --> 00:53:41,440
Speaker 3: And you know, everything does not always go up into

1068
00:53:41,480 --> 00:53:41,760
the right.

1069
00:53:42,280 --> 00:53:45,320
Speaker 1: Last question, and it's a pretty simple one. Thinking back

1070
00:53:45,400 --> 00:53:47,800
over the past let's say sixty days. I mean, you

1071
00:53:47,840 --> 00:53:49,880
meet with a lot of people, you meet with clients,

1072
00:53:49,920 --> 00:53:53,480
you meet with prospective clients, you sit on boards, you

1073
00:53:53,559 --> 00:53:56,480
coach youth sports, youth football, You and your wife go

1074
00:53:56,519 --> 00:53:59,559
to things. You go to church. I'm sure you attend

1075
00:53:59,599 --> 00:54:02,599
other kind of philanthropic things. You get invited to people's houses,

1076
00:54:02,639 --> 00:54:07,480
You play golf, So you're not a hermit. Honestly, in

1077
00:54:07,599 --> 00:54:09,880
any time in the past sixty days, if you had

1078
00:54:09,920 --> 00:54:14,199
anyone in any of those circumstances say to you, man,

1079
00:54:14,239 --> 00:54:17,599
can you believe what this ice is doing in Seattle?

1080
00:54:17,719 --> 00:54:21,119
I mean, this is literally hitler. If you had a

1081
00:54:21,159 --> 00:54:23,360
single person expressed a single worry about ice.

1082
00:54:24,239 --> 00:54:26,920
Speaker 4: No, but here's the one thing I will tell you

1083
00:54:26,960 --> 00:54:30,679
that's concerning to me. The most concerning thing about that

1084
00:54:30,760 --> 00:54:35,800
pole is how misrepresentative it is to what you'll hear

1085
00:54:36,320 --> 00:54:38,719
on the street and what you see in the news.

1086
00:54:38,960 --> 00:54:41,960
Speaker 3: And here's the other thing that it infuriates me so much.

1087
00:54:42,519 --> 00:54:47,599
Speaker 4: If that translaw was explained in plain English and put

1088
00:54:47,639 --> 00:54:51,000
on the ballot in a way that the ice pole

1089
00:54:51,159 --> 00:54:53,760
was put out there, I think you'd probably have about

1090
00:54:53,760 --> 00:54:56,079
seventy seventy three percent of people in the state would

1091
00:54:56,079 --> 00:54:57,079
have voted against that too.

1092
00:54:58,679 --> 00:55:01,039
Speaker 3: It's it, it.

1093
00:55:00,400 --> 00:55:03,360
Speaker 4: It is so infuriating to me that people do not

1094
00:55:03,679 --> 00:55:07,400
educate themselves so more and will do not have the

1095
00:55:07,480 --> 00:55:12,079
courage to speak up. That poll in Seattle tells you

1096
00:55:12,239 --> 00:55:16,440
everything you need to know in my opinion, and I

1097
00:55:16,559 --> 00:55:18,480
just people quit.

1098
00:55:18,480 --> 00:55:20,800
Speaker 3: Be in candies and speak up.

1099
00:55:21,320 --> 00:55:25,199
Speaker 1: I Y, yeah, I just saw this from Malcolm Glodwall,

1100
00:55:25,320 --> 00:55:27,400
who everyone thinks he's this brilliant guy. He wrote a

1101
00:55:27,400 --> 00:55:30,320
book called The Tipping Point, and everythin said he's now

1102
00:55:30,719 --> 00:55:35,480
mister soothsayer, mister prophet of our age. Malcolm Gladwell recently

1103
00:55:35,519 --> 00:55:37,679
said he's ashamed of having said in a previous panel

1104
00:55:37,679 --> 00:55:39,920
discussion that so called trans women have a place in

1105
00:55:39,960 --> 00:55:42,840
women's sports. He said he was cowed into saying so

1106
00:55:43,400 --> 00:55:45,840
now he says so called transit. He says the word

1107
00:55:46,039 --> 00:55:48,480
here's his exact quote, trans athletes have no place in

1108
00:55:48,519 --> 00:55:51,320
the female category. Says you know what, He's still cowed.

1109
00:55:52,480 --> 00:55:56,119
He's still saying that word. Yeah, you just wants argument.

1110
00:55:56,119 --> 00:55:59,840
You Malcolm Glogwell years ago with the Tipping Point alone,

1111
00:55:59,880 --> 00:56:01,440
and then his follow up to that, I can't remember

1112
00:56:01,440 --> 00:56:02,760
the name of the follow up to that, and then

1113
00:56:02,800 --> 00:56:04,760
the follow up to the follow up, and his consulting

1114
00:56:04,800 --> 00:56:07,119
and his speeches and his ted talks come on is

1115
00:56:07,239 --> 00:56:08,800
that worth twenty million bucks or something?

1116
00:56:09,840 --> 00:56:13,519
Speaker 3: Will look, I just think it's no. Yeah, one percent cowed.

1117
00:56:13,599 --> 00:56:16,719
Speaker 4: I we're at a place right now where it's controversial

1118
00:56:16,760 --> 00:56:19,239
to say that somebody with testicles and a penis shouldn't

1119
00:56:19,239 --> 00:56:19,920
be in women's sports.

1120
00:56:20,239 --> 00:56:25,000
Speaker 1: Yeah right, yeah, yeah, Well that pole does say that

1121
00:56:25,079 --> 00:56:27,480
all about your separate country, and I know you live

1122
00:56:27,480 --> 00:56:29,480
in a better part of that separate country. Always great

1123
00:56:29,519 --> 00:56:31,760
to have you here. We'll make the twopole thing happen.

1124
00:56:31,840 --> 00:56:33,320
We'll go back there and you can see this this

1125
00:56:33,360 --> 00:56:35,639
home district. Sound good? All right? This is the Todd

1126
00:56:35,639 --> 00:56:38,960
Herman Show. Zach abramises, I guess know your Risk podcast

1127
00:56:39,039 --> 00:56:42,559
dot com. Now, please go, be well, be strong, be kind,

1128
00:56:42,639 --> 00:56:45,519
make a decision today to walk in the light of Christ.