Speaker 1: What is up, fellows, Echoes, I am Dan Fa Valley
coming at you with the certified fantabulous our resident rock star,
mister Grant Hughes. We're gathered here today for DeAndre eight
into the Wizard's Emergency Podcast. This is gonna be It's
gonna be lots of fun and to you come. We
had we know we had this on the books. We've
got a lot of news to catch up on DeAndre
and being part of it because we're gonna talk a
lot about the Lakers, but we've not talked about the
John Brown trade, the Walker Kessler sign and trade other
stuff that are boring a hole in our brains. But
the question that we all want to know the answer to, Grant,
how thatck are you?
Speaker 2: I'm I'm conflicted about some of these trades and therefore
very excited to talk to you about all this stuff because,
like I there's a handful of some of the biggest transactions.
I'm still forming, Like I don't. I feel like I'm
like part way to not a take, but like a
cogent like thought on it where if someone asked me
what do you think about this trade? I would have
an answer like right now, I kind of just have
disparate thoughts that, based on our conversation, might sway me
pretty strongly towards the positive or negative on some of
the most some of these trades. Would you agree with
this starting point, Like some of these trades have been shocking,
like some of the biggest ones that like the packages,
whether it's the packages going out or just the player themselves.
We already talked to Kawhi earlier this week, but some
of these more recent ones are I don't know, it's
they're just hard to get my head around. So excited
to make an effort to do that. Don't know if
we can.
Speaker 1: I don't remember. Some of the trade, like the LaMelo
Ball trade was really shocking, like this being the off
season of all off seasons that they moved him to
me was funny when it was talked about for years. Yeah,
John Brown one was a good harbinger of how wild
this off seas has been because you kind of sense that, Okay,
Jalen Brown is gonna get traded, but to the Sixers
who just beat them in the playoffs and then for
that return was just not something that like I saw coming,
And that's where we wanted to start right, was let's
talk about the Jalen Brown trade. So the package vitals
for anyone who might not know them, Paul George and
two first round picks, one of which is probably a swap.
I think the best way to kind of boil that
down is it's probably gonna be like the Clippers pick
is right? Is that like the best way to I
have it in our notes of what's like probably the
best way to frame it. But it could be a swap,
it could be an outright pick, depending on how it happens.
And they also get two second rounders, so it's a
twenty twenty eight first round pick. It's the most likely
outcome I have listed in the notes is swapping the
lesser of Boston slash San Antonio's twenty twenty eight pick
for the Clippers pick in twenty eight.
Speaker 2: I think, yeah, we can just call it a first
in a swap, an unprotected first and a swap, right,
That's that's yeah, just to keep it simple.
Speaker 1: And that's first is in twenty thirty one. Then the
two seconds is the most favorable of Golden State, Milwaukee
or Minnesota in twenty eight, and then the twenty thirty
second is most favorable of Phoenix, Portland and Washington, and
then Jalen Brown of course is going to the Philadelphia
seventy six ers. Grant, I give you the floor, I.
Speaker 2: Mean, yeah, thanks, thanks a lot. I just prefaced all
this by saying I don't know what I think. Well, okay,
I I think my very first react, well not my
first reaction, but where I've landed and feel fairly confident
is it seems un It seems highly likely, almost undeniable,
that this trade makes the Boston Celtics a worst playoff team.
And I think it's important to emphasize that distinction this
year than they would have otherwise been because and that
folds in a lot of different elements of the Jalen
Brown discourse. We can talk about the analytics stuff, but
can we agree on that? Can we agree that the
Celtics with Jalen Brown would have been a better, more
dangerous playoff team this coming season than the Celtics with
Paul George, or more likely to be more dangerous with
Jalen Brown.
Speaker 1: Yes, I think the fit is a little wonkier when
you dig into it. But Jalen Brown, here's an analytics
stat has played in basically one hundred more regular season
games over the past half decade, then Paul George.
Speaker 2: Yeah, if only using availability, right, because it's like, well,
would you rather have Jalen Brown or not Jalen Brown
and not Paul George, which is probably as likely as
any other outcome is that George just doesn't make it
through the season in playoffs healthy. So I think if
you start from there, you then have to start justifying,
finding justifications for why Boston did this, because unless the
Celtics thought, and we would both have disagreed with this,
that with Brown and Tatum in this supporting cast that
we've supplemented with Mitchell Robinson were not a contender, unless
they thought that this feels this is a step back,
and therefore like, well, there's no we might as well
start tearing this down, right, which would be one way
to view this Brown trade. I guess it's a step
back for Boston in the immediate in the postseason, which
is all Boston should really care about at a time
when it seems like the rest of the East is
viewing the conference is pretty wide open based on some
of the moves we've seen, right, So nobody's afraid of
the Knicks being a juggernaut, and there's all these other
moves that have happened that suggests a lot of East
teams think we could win the conference. Boston would have
been in that group. Maybe Boston still is in that group,
but I think they have to be viewed as being
farther down than they would have been with Jalen Brown.
So then how do you justify this from Boston's perspective?
Do you, like, do you have a number one if
you had to defend the Celtics, what would you say
as your first argument on this trade.
Speaker 1: That you felt you needed to move him because of
I guess things he had said over the offseason, things
that have happened maybe that we don't even know about,
and because of the very public negotiations with Giannis, which
came on the heels of a couple of years ago,
very public negotiations for Kevin Durant, which he was involved in.
I think that's a flimsy case. I don't think that
Jalen Brown by any stretch was considered a low maintenance superstar,
but I think that's true of most superstars. Most superstars
are not Steph Curry, They're not Damian Lillard's pretty low maintenance, right,
Nicole Jokic.
Speaker 2: Or even someone like Tatum just to provide a pretty
immediate contrast, right, right, that's all fair.
Speaker 1: What I just but that to me, that's even flimsy?
Is I this to me? Reeks more of Oh, you
went into the off season and decided you needed to
try trade Jalen Brown, in which case, if that's the
decision just before I throw it back to you, I
still don't and I wouldn't have traded him, not for this,
but I also just wouldn't have traded him.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: The other thing is if you if we're operating under
the assumption that you needed to trade him, though, why
not Wait? Where is this? Where is this offer going?
And I don't I know, I don't think the Celtics
accepted an actively like worse package than what was out
there for Jalen Brown. I don't. I've gotten better. I
think is we've done this longer and longer of saying yeah,
there's instances where a front office might choose, you know,
for instance, the Spurs with Kawhi Leonard when they traded
him the first time. No, they should have traded him
for a package built a round pick. So there are
instances of that, But to me, it was pretty clear
here that this was just the best package available for
Jalen Brown. So I won't argue against that logic. What
I will argue against is if that's the best package
available for Jalen Brown, then you don't trade Jalen Brown.
Speaker 2: I think I agree with you there. There's so much
to get to, even just from what you said. I
think I don't want to get to the actual trade
package just yet, because that's fascinating to me. But I
where I landed similarly, was this felt like a move
because because why wouldn't you wait? Like how much worse
could could his value get? Really? And I what seems
plausible to me is that one there must have been
personality stuff or or something that we are not privy
to that that really made it so that going into
the season with him on the team was just untenable,
like he was gonna sit out or like some I
don't know, I'm just I'm totally speculating, like something this
was not a thing where you could, well, let's readdress
it at the deadline when maybe he plays great and
you know, half a year that contract is off the books,
like it seems like that was just not an option
the Celtics wanted to entertain, and that has to be
viewed through the sort of personality.
Speaker 1: Lens.
Speaker 2: I guess, so, so okay, so you had to do it.
It is shocking to me that his value was this
low because you could, because you could make the case
that it should cost you a couple firsts or at
least one good one, just to get off of Paul George.
You know, I, I know there's only two years left
and one's a player option, and it is it it?
You know, there's a there's a possibility that, as as
Carrigan is mentioning here in the in the chat, Paul
George could have a healthy playoff run. And in that case,
you could squint and look at the analytics that say
Paul George is a more helpful winning player and say, like,
maybe Boston's actually better. Sure possible. You can't say it's likely,
you just can't. So like to get off Paul George's
contract should have cost like most of this package to
also get Jalen Brown, to me, is wild. So that
to me, I think we need to talk about his
value because this gets us into the analytics stuff. Where
you know, it's a compelling case that this guy is
not worth what he's making, which has got one hundred
and eighty million dollars left over the next three years.
And another fear factor here for Boston is like that
extension that they could add even more onto that. I
understand not wanting to be involved in that. Having said that,
it's not like the case against Brown as a helpful
winner based on the advanced metrics is new, and Boston
signed him to that massive contract with basically all the
same information that is being dredged up now about how Brown, well,
I go on off is bad and he's not an
efficient scorer, he's a terrible passer, like, he's not a
good off ball defender, all that stuff that feeds into
him being rated so low relative to his profile by
the advanced numbers on off stuff. I just I'm still
stunned that this is this is what the market said
he was worth, Like doesn't I can you make sense
of that for me? Because well, he's still I just
I can't. Did the numbers say what they say, like
this guy has had a ten year career that like
basically is uniform, and that the Celtics are better without
him than with him, you know, if you just look
at record or you're just looking on off or whatever.
But that's that tells me that those numbers aren't capturing
anything right.
Speaker 1: And so here's what I'm also struggling with, because I
think the best explanation would be the analytics. I would
think they're looking at is the balance sheet. You mentioned
his extension, but they're only shaving off a year of
salary here. And I am unmoved by the argument that, well,
there might be another move coming, maybe they'll turn Paul
George and this stuff into Trey Murphy and Jordan Poole
was the name that was floated, and I said, if
that's the order of operations, I think this looks dumber
where Trey Murphy's a great player, But the value in
Jaylen Brown to me is we can point to let's
point to the numbers. Everyone's talked about it. I'll admit
it is objectively strange that they have been better technically
without him on the court, but they're still when you
do over the half over the last half decade, playoffs
in regular season, you are still a net positive with
him on the court plus eight point nine points per
one hundred persons when he plays with Tatum, So that
gives you a ceiling plus five point two points per
one hundred possessions when he plays without Tatum. If that's you're, yes, okay, great,
plus twelve point two when it's Tatum without Brown. But
my thing here is that's kind of the like, if
your second best player is able to help you win
the minutes that are so low, ye, okay, you can
have better on off splits, when when your better player
is on his own, okay, he's probably going up against
inferior competition, and that there has to be lineup noise
and shooting luck based in that. The other thing is
are we like It feels as if people are acting
like this is novel in the sense of players aren't
together as longer. So it's hard to take these half
decade samples, which is why the Jalen Brown analytics case
is so fascinating. Let's look at Jamal Murray and Nicole Okich.
Is Nicoli Okic not a superstar because the Nuggets are
losing the minutes that he plays without Jamal Murray over
the past half decade. No, it's because those two are
inextricably tied together in large part because the Nuggets don't
trust Jamal Murray, and they haven't. We don't see the
same type of staggering patterns in Boston. I mean, if
you just look again, Jamal Murray had injuries, but again
that I would argue that this is part of it too.
Jalen Brown, across the playoffs in regular season, has played
five three hundred and twenty three minutes without Jason Tatum
on the floor. Would you care to guess how many
minutes during that same span Jamal Murray's played without Niccoli. Okitch,
Oh like less than half of that twenty nine hundred Okay,
So it's just like part of his value is being available,
but that okay, he can be in a lineup on
his own, and maybe we're not better because of it,
but that gives us a floor and maybe it comes
at the cost of are we a little bit worse
when he's next to Tatum because the possessions get weird?
I suppose that's an argument I'd be willing to entertain. Again,
the numbers are fascinating to me, but I sort of
look at it as you can't reallocate the volume that
he was giving you not just with his availability, but
you could hate his shot diet and the way that
he had tunnel vision on his drives and lack of playmaking.
But you can't. I would argue that can you even
slot Jason Tatum and tell and say go do the
Jalen Brown stuff? And it's cool that Paul George analytically
looks Rosier on paper. Right now, A couple things that
I think were the big thing I think people have
ignored here is that Paul George got a twenty five
game forced sabbatical to rest up and come back. Is
that the in Boston too over the course of a
full season. I just I know I'm rambling, but I
look at the numbers and I get it. But there's
to me if you based this trade off on off
splits or just the analytics, I think that's insane. And
I didn't even look at it this way until you
said it too. You knew all this when you gave
him his first extension. This isn't news to you. So
I think there are just certain things that numbers can't capture.
But I think what's getting lost in all this is, Okay,
the Nuggets with the Celtics with just Tatum have been
statistically more successful when Jalen Brown is off the court.
I would love to dig into what's the level of
competition they're facing, the percentage of minutes that are coming
against backups. But the fact that you're still so freaking
good when the two of them together, and Jalen Brown
gave you a lifeline, a floor, a higher floor when
Tatum's not on the court, I think that to matter too.
And if you're saying he's just not worth his contract,
well now we've officially entered the realm of you only
want top ten, certified, top fifteen guys on Max deals
And that's fine, But that's what makes this package so
dissonant to me, is you unless you think Paul George
is declining his player option, you didn't save yourself money.
It seems like you spared yourself awkwardness, which is just
the talent downgrade that's not worth it to me.
Speaker 2: Yeah, what is up, Fellasikos?
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Speaker 1: And now back to the show.
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, like the awkwardness and the return price are
linked where it's like I said, you know, facetiously, like
he's going to sit the season out because he's so
mad and so like I just I just have a
hard time believing that the Celtics by waiting would have
done significantly worse than this in a return package, and
that you know, even if this is all you get,
then okay, at least you gave it a shot for
half a season until February to see if this was salvageable.
I got to say, like, I know, we're kind of
in circles here and we should probably advance the discussion
to the sixer side of this. But the numbers, because
they come over such a large sample, and because they
are in such agreement that Jalen Brown is at the
very least like pretty grossly over paid for what he
does for you in the regular season, it's I can't
just dismiss all that. And I think folded into this too,
is I kind of default to trusting the Celtics to
make smart decisions because they've pretty much done that consistently
for as long as this controlling this front office has
been in charge. That said, I I Nate Duncan made
this point, and I think it's it's it's not an
analytical point. It's not. It's not. It doesn't. It doesn't
put the lie to any of those numbers that I
think are just very compelling when it comes to Brown
being overrated, overpaid, all that stuff. In the postseason, when
you need someone to beat his man and get a
decent shot against the defense, that is taking away all
of the stuff your system wants to accomplish, Jalen Brown
can do that. And when you need someone to guard
an elite score one on one, Jalen Brown can do that.
And that stuff matters more in the playoffs because they
the easy things that Boston excels at, winning the shot
math game, you know, all all that moving the ball,
all that stuff, making more out of like what you'd
call dependent scorers, Like all that stuff kind of goes
away or is is devalued or is minimized. And a
player like Brown, who won a finals MVP and who's
been to six conference finals and who's been no worse
than the second most important player on all those teams,
depending on what you think about like Kyrie, I guess
going way back, like you're giving up that. That's why
I started this by saying the playoff outlook for Boston
to me seems definitely worse. I would not be at
all surprised if they won a ton more regular season
games this year, not obviously because Tatum is going to
be there, but because, like you could talk me into
in the aggregate, Paul George and more from Pritchard and
more from White and whatever else and Mitchell Robinson helping
that this is not that that's related, but like they
could be a much better regular season team. That's totally
plausible to me. But I do think things change in
the postseason and that's where Brown will be most missed
because Paul George can't do the things that Jalen Brown could,
and really Jason Tatum can't either. I mean, that's the
other part of it. So I think it's I think
you have to start with this is probably a bad
move for Boston if they if Boston cares most about
maximizing this season's depth of playoff run. But I understand
wanting nothing to do with Brown's next contract with him
on the team this year from a personality perspective and
believing that you can you can create a better overall
team in the aggregate with him off the books. I
understand those arguments.
Speaker 1: I guess I understand them. But what is I'm going
to need more evidence how toxic was it behind the scenes?
What was he doing? If the other thing, too is okay,
they want no part of his extension. He's got three
guarantee years left on his deal, no options, and so
I think you could argue that do you believe he's
gonna tank his value somehow, because there's a part of
me that thinks just having him and then letting him
come off the books and leave for nothing would have
been preferable to this, because I think that there is
in the next three years with Jalen Brown on the Celtics,
the chances of them winning a title or higher than
they're gonna be in the three years to come. And
if this is the return you accepted, and I'm seeing
in the chat that people understand it, and I'm not
calling Brad Stevens or Mike Zarren dumb, I think this
is a bad move. I wonder if they made it
knowing it's a bad move, in which case we need
more details. I also think that some people it's to
me it's really not an overcorrection, but part of the
emotional response is and not just from Boston's fans, which
you have to understand why it would be emotional for them.
There deserves to be a correction for the like whoever
is smearing Jalen Brown like without putting their name to it,
and when you're talking about him trying to be the
smartest guy in the room, that was something that came
when he was where you go to cal I don't
know players in colleges, but I remember that being like
ruminations around the draft. That stuff is just lame in
the sense that then put your name on it. If
that's actually true. And I think that's part of why
people are just like because it to me my opinion,
that's coded, that's just that's racially coded. And I don't
I don't we all do this, myself included, But the
fact that Bobby Marx is able to go on TV
and say that there are some people that think Jalen
Brown or their models, so Jalen Brown is the seventh
best player in the NBA totally unnecessary to say. But
I also don't think that the media drove this trade
into existence. I don't know that they even created any
toxicity between Jalen Brown and Jason Tatum. So I think
just a place where I'm coming at, where I really
believe why I'm so strongly against this is that there
might be a lack of information there. But if you
think he deviated from the script too much, like during
the three to one collapse, I don't think that, like
Jason Tatum was available for a good chunk of that series.
But like Jason tATu's not available by the end of it,
Like what else is supposed to happen there. That's what
I'm struggling to wrap my head around, is I I'm
curious to see what they're They're not gonna give us
any good public explanations, and I find everything that's come
out since unsatisfactory at best. The one thing I am
wondering is and I don't like reading into it or
being this guy, but just the lack of like something
being said from Jason Tatum here or any that that silence.
I'm not a big silence speaks volumes guy, but in
this case, I'm kind of like you guys playing together
for almost a decade, this is weird, right.
Speaker 2: I think I think that, Well, let's look at what
we never got, which was literally anyone coming out and
saying Jalen Brown is a great guy, He's an incredible teammate.
He's not a that never had an issue, never had
a problem, Like no one said that, which is just
a different version of what you're pointing out about Tatum
not coming out or like not going to bat for him.
I'm pretty persuaded that I think you're probably right that
the smartest guy in the room thing has got some
implications to it that are a little unsavory. I'm pretty
convinced that Jalen Brown was like not super fun or
likable to have around on balance, just because you never
heard anyone really argue the opposite in his defense, and
just from what we've seen on he just it seems
like personality was a real factor here. Should it have been?
I don't know, Like we talked last time before this
went down about like, can't everybody just sit down and
hash this out and go into this season together and
just see how good you are.
Speaker 1: I feel like brian' scalabrini playing mediator could have made
this work somebody, like somebody maybe Rivers needs Bill Simmons.
Did you hear the Bill Simmons call an Oscar piece.
Speaker 2: To worry by the way, I did. I just saw
the clip of it. Yeah, I I Like I said, I,
I don't think I feel quite as strongly in the
negative from Boston side as you do about this. Maybe,
And that's maybe because I'm I'm pretty convinced that there's
more to this that we have not in may never
hear as far as like behind the scenes stuff. And
I do think there's a real case from the numbers
that you probably want to get out of the Jalen
Brown business while you can. It just is always going
to strike me as like this just doesn't seem like
enough in a return package to do that.
Speaker 1: I'm when I actually find maybe even more fascinating. And
you alluded to this when you started talking at the top.
Is that his like this was the best offer because
I'm giving the Celtics the benefit of the doubt in
the sense. But this is probably why people are reacting
so shocked or negative is because Boston's become known as
the best run team in the NBA or close to it. Yeah,
and a trade like this just on paper, it looks awful,
and I honestly the Celtics are I think people have
over corrected by saying everyone thinks the Celtics are gonna
suck next season, because I think the Celtics gonna be
really good. I just think there's no way their title
equity has plummeted. You said this with the playoff stuff,
but I'm I'm of the mind that the thing that
gives me the most pauses. So there was no team
that was willing to beat this offer or get into
the Jaylen Brown business, which is, we just saw Trey
Young get max quote unquote maxed out after being salary dumped,
and so that is very strange, somewhat compelling to me,
and look, it piques my curiosity even furtherest. Okay, well
what went wrong here?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think the more we talk about this, the
more I start to think it's not as big a
catastrophe for Boston as I did initially. It's still probably bad,
but it is funny that like all of the most
like granularly quantifiable stuff that the measurables, the numbers, the
analytics say Brown is not worth it, and then like
we're also at like the intangibles of like team chemistry
is getting brought up in the chat, and like personality
and stuff also recommend against Jalen Brown. So you're kind
of getting anti Brown from from both quantitative and qualitative
and unmeasurable sides. I'm now I'm just kind of repeating myself,
but there's a lot that says you shouldn't have Jalen
Brown on your team for this much money. I still
just gotta believe that Boston somehow could have gotten more
for him, because yeah, that's maybe where I'm landing. It's
just this and the market speaks like this. It's not
like they did a one team you know, showcase and
it's like sixers or nothing. I'm sure he was clearly
available several times over the years and and this is
just what they could get right now, It's always gonna underwhelm.
I think unless you know what, Okay, let's hype. Let's hypothetically,
I don't think this is what's gonna happen. But hypothetically
the Sixers flop, which could happen easily because Embid doesn't
play and Brown looks worse or whatever. Are we talking
about the Jalen Brown contracts as being just as bad
or worse than the Paul George contract in a year.
Speaker 1: No, here's my thing, And I'm not saying that you're saying.
I'm just I'm like, is that possible? And is rhetorical?
I think you hit it on the head before when
you were saying there are so even if Jalen Brown
is imperfect offensively, there are so few people in the
NBA that can handle his combined offensive and defensive workload.
And you could sit there and say, well, like Derek
White's a better team defender. Jason Tatum's a better help defender. Okay, awesome.
Jalen Brown's a better one on one defender than either
of those guys at this point. So I know, I
don't think we're gonna get to a point. You can
also if Jalen Brown has a bad season, you could say,
all right, like he's still on the right side of
thirty one and it's one season versus puled. George is
thirty six years old, Joelle embiid, we have years and
years of availability issues and now he looks like a
shell of himself on defense. So I just it's funny
because you're saying you feel a little bit better or
understand it more from Boston's perspective. I still don't. I
understand wanting to get out of the Jaylen Brown business,
but everything the way they went about it to me
doesn't make any sense. Yeah, if it was even from
a even from a book's balancing perspective, forget about that.
Like you said, maybe they don't care about the next year,
which would again I think is stupid. You have Jaser Tatum,
But okay, so what did you do? So, yes, there
could be more moves to come, but Trey Murphy's not
gonna do it. Trey Murphy can't generate his own shot
in the playoff. We've yet to see Trey Murphy in
the playoffs. But Tray Murphrey can't generate his own shot
in the playoffs. Do we think that Yugo Gonzales is
that player? Do you think Baylor Shireman's that player?
Speaker 2: I can't.
Speaker 1: This is the other thing put your name to Like, No,
I don't think Peyton Pritcher is the next Jalen Brunson. Sorry,
that's not like if you were a take it was
Tom Haberstrow actually had a great article on the whole thing,
but the thing that got clipped was someone and it
was like the sources from the Celtics or saying, like,
we believe Peyton Pritchard could be our Jalen Brunson. No.
Like so that the spin on this I think is frustrated.
Frustrated me the most. So I understand it's not Boston
shouldn't have traded Jalen Brown. It's why act in this way.
And by the way, if you wanted to get out
of Jalen Brown, the Jaylen Brown possess this desperately. All appearances,
all all information points to you were at the one
yard line and Giannis talks and wouldn't give up Yugo
Gonzales or Bill Simmons said they didn't want to give
Giannis a MAX extension. So if you didn't want to
extend Jannis at the max, then this leads me to believe, Okay,
they're really kind of in moneyball mode where they want
to reorient their roster around one mega salary. They've decided
that's Jason Tatum. Fine, but you haven't done that, so
the benefit the doubt would need to be given. This
isn't gonna be the last move of the off season.
I don't wannah the trade deadline. If if you want
to give the Celtics, if the Celtics want to come
off looking charitable or like they made the right decision here.
This isn't a let's wait and see until the trade
deadline thing. For me, it's if there's other moves and
you're trying to restructure the vision of this team, then
it needs to happen this off season. Otherwise, to me,
you're kind of punting on next year regardless of what
you do at the trade deadline. And but if you're
saying that some people have said, well, maybe they're gonna
use this stuff to get the next star who's gonna
be available, that's better than the honest And by the way,
I'm saying this is someone who didn't think they should
have gone all in for you, honest, I clearly have
no idea what they're thinking. There's just so many counterintuitive
factors at play here for me, which I think is
ultimately that the lack of consistency in the approach to
this when you look at how the honest negotiations unfolded,
when you look at how good I still think Jalen
Brown is what the Celtics are Now, what presumptions we
need to make to say that, look at all the
numbers and how good he's the better pick and roll
playmaker and the better three point shooter. I just this
isn't look I'm seeing the chat, this was the best
return they could get for Jalen Brown. I'm not denying that.
I'm puzzled by it. I'm saying you shouldn't have made
the deal then, which is a completely reasonable thing to say,
I would think at this juncture. So yeah, that's just
kind of where I'm at on it. This in the
backdrop of the Yannas stuff where they drew a line
in the sand in that but then Salary dumped Jalen Brown.
Basically is what this feels like is bizarre.
Speaker 2: I think it's it's interesting to flip to the sixer
side and just state how simple this all is, you know,
and how clean and like, yes, of course you just
do this because well, I don't know if that's totally
logical or fair, but like you're getting off of Paul
George's contract, a guy who just like is you say,
thirty six, just cannot stay healthy and like is in
decline and could just be like that decline could accelerate
at this stage given his health track record and just
the age and all that stuff. You get an in
prime superstar that you could give a shit about the analytics. Like,
if this is what it costs you to get someone
like Jaalen Brown, you pay that cost all the time
again to circle all the way back, because it probably
is going to cost you at least one of these
first round assets just to not have to trade Paul
George into cap Space hypothetically was gonna cost you a
first like at.
Speaker 1: Least I would argue more if if you wanted to
take back an expiring deal. I think one of these
picks might have been able, yeah to get.
Speaker 2: So this is just a move you make if you're
the Sixers and you assume all the risks that come
with Jalen Brown, because you're way more danger today than
you were yesterday, and you've gotten off the second worst
asset on your books. Again, assuming Jalen Brown does not
become clear, well, Jaylen Brown, you could make hazy already.
He immediately becomes the second worst asset just because of
how much he makes. But you understand what I'm saying, Like,
you just do this if you're the Sixers, which is
funny to think, Like how that's kind of where my
analysis ends, Like this is a great trade for Philadelphia.
It makes them better. Uh, They're way more interesting, they're
more dangerous, and I don't have any like, I have
no qualms about it whatsoever. We the fit may be
funky with him and embiid sure, and Be's not gonna
play half the season like it just this feels like
a no brainer for the Sixers, which is funny because
we like, I'm really having a hard time with Boston side,
so I should be having a similarly hard time with Philadelphia,
but I'm just.
Speaker 1: Not the It's funny though, when the news first broke,
I hated the deal for both teams, and then you
think about it a little bit more and it was
just no, this is why wouldn't you do this? And
it's also you didn't. Okay, let's just say the Jaalen
Brown contract is underwater. It spans the same length as
Joel Embiid, and so the alternative for these picks, where
could you use the You could not have used these
two draft picks to get off both Joel Embiid and
Paul George. No, it just wouldn't have happened. And by
the way, had you done that, then what what are
you left with?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: So just an absolute home run I think by them.
Do you have any I have questions? I'm sure you
do about the fit. I assume him and Joel Ebid
will be fine, even though Jayleen Brown called them a flopper.
I do believe offensively, it feels as if there might
be a lot of redundancies where okay, who can play
off who? Having Tyre's Max and VJ edgecomb is such
a luxury because they can play off anybody and play
whatever style. I think it Bead showed that he could
play off them as well last year, So now you're
adding Jalen Brown into the equation. I'm just a big
believer in top end Town is gonna figure it out.
And I don't love the three Max models still that
Phillies short of working with. But this three Max model
is way more compelling than the one that they had
forty eight hours ago.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think there are real fit issues to work through.
I think there's I think, like, I don't love the
idea of MAXI having a diminished role at the expense
of to benefit Brown. I don't think Brown. Brown is
not someone that like contributes on the margins, so like
for him to be maximally valuable, I think he does
need to shoot a ton and have the ball a
ton and guard the other team's best player, and like,
who knows a lot of the same on off stuff
may happen here. I just it's a risk I'm taking
because isn't it. Like, let's say it doesn't work. I
think you're trading Brown for positive value if you need to, so, like,
you know, I know that's not how you should think
about it going but as a pure asset play, you
just paid to get off Paul George and you got Brown.
I think you're gonna get paid more for Brown if
you trade him later, right, Like I think, I just
don't think his value seems to have been at its
absolute and nedear when he just got traded, So like,
I don't think his value is getting worse. Maybe I'm wrong,
but I from just the asset play makes sense and
they could figure it out. Like that's that's the chance
I would be willing to take every time. As the
Sixers here, I I'm.
Speaker 1: Just like, I'm still kind of mystified that this is
all took for them to get him. Yeah, Yeah, what's
gonna be the key for him? Because it is, He's
gonna have to fit into kind of a large because
even with Tatum, you could kind of count on John
Brown being just that high usage, super on ball guy
one of two or even one of one, depending on
how you view the way Tatum plays here, it feels
like he's gonna need to get used to playing off
the ball more, and I think he could do that
in transition pretty easily. I'm very to see how this
team's half court offense looks or maybe availability might just
solve a lot of it, because if it's Joel Ebid
missus is only playing in thirty seven games or something,
you don't really have to worry about usage overlap at all.
Speaker 2: That's the thing is you're you're swapping out just take
everything else out of it and turning Paul George into
Jalen Brown. You're getting someone who's probably gonna play twice
as many minutes so and and you're and you're getting
that on a team where you're other another player and
b it is as unreliable health wise as like basically
anyone in the league, as certainly as anyone who's making
the money that he's making. So like, the volume means
something different on this team than it does on almost
any other team because because of Embiid's situation, So like
I I that that is part of the reason it's
different than the Boston situation, because they don't have an
Embid that like is kind of a lynchpin of the
whole deal that's gonna play a third of the season
or whatever it ends up being. Right, So, so like
that that that was the critical failing of them be
George Perring is like, both of these guys just couldn't play.
So getting someone who is substantially more available just that's
that means more in Philadelphia than it did in Boston.
Speaker 1: I'm just laughing. Big Xantina is like crashing out in
the chat right now. I don't know, were you here
saying that Jalen Brown was a net negative like a
few months I just don't. I didn't hear this discussion
about Jalleen Brown being a terrible player a few months ago,
and so I'm just not But yes, Jalen Brown is
valuable to the Sixers Paul. He's played in a hundred
more regular season games in Paul, Georgia over the past decade.
He is valuable to the Sixers if he I'll I
don't know what needs to happen for this trade not
to work out for the Sixers. I don't like. I
just I feel like you've increased your your postseason equity
quite a bit. Like he would need to come in
and just ruin vj Edgecomb and Tyrese MAXI like, I don't,
but he would he would?
Speaker 2: He well, just I mean specifics aside for this to
not work out for the sixers, Brown would have to
Brown's value would have to continue to decline, and you're
in a situation where, oh my god, we have to
attach something to move him. I just we're kind of
a long way from that.
Speaker 1: I think I am concerned a little bit about their shooting.
Dan Fredy Simon signing certainly helps. But which is the
other thing, which is I understand the small non point guard,
like just pure two guard, but this is someone who's
just consistently rated in the ninetieth percentile of catch and
shoot three point making and pull up three point shot making, yep,
And he got less than Dean Wade, and.
Speaker 2: I also would less than Calling Sexton and the other
The other.
Speaker 1: Thing too, My whole thing is why did he go here?
Because I think he helps them? But like where is
like where are his minutes? Because he's not closing for them?
Speaker 2: No, I mean like Dallas he I mean I might
pick him for six Manut of the Year right now
because I think he's going to play a ton and
he's getting the perfect role now that we've wanted Simons
to be a high scoring six man for his entire career.
Like that's that's what even in Portland I was like,
that kind of feels like what he should be this
is this is a great spot for him. I can't
explain why. I don't know where was Detroit? Where was
where was if this is all at costs? Where were
like a million teams that just need a guy to
come in and gun.
Speaker 1: Maybe he was waiting because he thought the market would
be better for him. But I don't like even Chicago
got Norman Powell. I think I was like a grab.
I'd probably rather just you have Averony Simon's for two
years making half that like what Palell is making next season.
Speaker 2: I like the Norman Powell deal for the for the Bulls.
We should we move on. We did forty minutes on
one trade. There's been some I mean.
Speaker 1: It was a big trade. It was a big trade.
Where did you want to go next?
Speaker 2: I think we better do the Kessler deal? Right? That's
kind of the other one. That's got some really interesting
talking points here. I can pull up the details there
if I can work the out a bit. So the
Los Angeles Lakers, uh trade, Well, that's the Clippers. That's
like they did. They got Kawhi, So the Lakers get
Walker Kessler. It's it's a sign and trade technically there,
I don't know if there was technically is there an
offer sheet involved here? Is it just the I guess
the Jazz signed him to this and then they traded. Yeah,
and then yeah, four years, one hundred and thirty million
for Walker Kessler traded to the Lakers for two first
and two swaps. And I got to pull up the
Jazz side here just to get the so they were
getting the Lakers sorry, unprotected in thirty one and thirty
three and swaps in twenty eight and thirty and again
that's four years, one hundred and thirty million for Walker Kessler.
Luca Duncic put his thumb on the scale here. Man.
It sure seems like this he you know, and I
think it was reported that Doncic forever has been telling
the Lakers we need an a list. I want an
a list. Center opinion is.
Speaker 1: That we view Walker Kessler is this incredible vertical threat.
Speaker 2: He's tall, he's tall, he's a good offense. I mean, well,
let's just you got it on the kiro on there, like,
what are the Lakers even doing. They're appeasing Luka Doncic
and they're firing basically all their first round assets and
you know at the Jazz to do that. Let me
ask you two part question. If you were just trying
to sign Walker Kessler, would you pay him one hundred
and thirty million dollars over four years?
Speaker 1: I consider it okay?
Speaker 2: Would you trade two first and two swaps? Which is
that's where we get into it, right, Like that's the
issue this.
Speaker 1: Is I don't I don't understand. I think it was
a Nate Duncan you were missing sing it might have
brought up this point. What if you just threw the
max offer sheet at Walker Kestler four years and one
seventy seven whatever it ended up being with the adjusted cap.
I'd rather have him on the max deal and have
my picks then and the other The other thing that
doesn't make sense is their business afterwards. It's not specific
to this year's playoffs, but how did you watch this
year's playoffs and decide what if? What if we had
no wings? Still? Like, what if we just had no
the Quentin Grime signing, I guess is fine. My contract
is a little higher than I thought. I really loves Mamu,
but now I'm in a position that's a horrible contract.
Speaker 2: That is so well, yeah, if it's horrible, But I
do think, like what was wrong with ru Hachimura? Like why,
I mean, couldn't you clearly his market's not real, not
exactly frothing right now? You couldn't have brought him back
for less and for shorter.
Speaker 1: I don't understand the need for Collin Sexton. I would
have brought back Marcus Smart instead.
Speaker 2: I think Colin Sexton's a minimum player. I like that that.
I mean, I know it's small potatoes because it's two years,
it's nineteen million, it's just the room exception. But like
I would have I there's so many guards I would
have rather had for over him, especially at that number.
Like you throw Simon's in there? Why not you want
to save seven million dollars over two years? I think
I'm forty. Simon's a better player than Colin Sexton.
Speaker 1: He's just you're not You're not wrong. He's a better
passer than Colin Sexton. Sexton is probably a little bit
better of a defender and driver, but he's amazed. Simon's
a better shooter.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Sexton's not a good pat. It's just whatever, Uh
I no, I I well, okay, let's play the same game,
because it's pretty clear we think this is uh, this
is starting with the Kessler. I don't I don't want
to lump the other ones in there. We didn't even
talk about Austin Reeves got the four year max because
it seemed like the Lakers were scared into having to
give him that much.
Speaker 1: Apparently it seems like the pistons of the nets were lurking.
How did you not I understand that maybe throwing off
some of your calculations, but how how are you not
planning around the idea that someone who was tracking towards
all NBA consideration before he got injured might get a
max offer sheet. So I'm not receptive to the argument that, well,
they were just kind of floored that theay to pay
Austin Reeves the max and they were scrambling after no.
Speaker 2: Like, yeah, so let's play the same game, if you. So,
we tried to make sense of the Boston side of
the Brown trade, Uh, can we do that here with
with the Lakers. Let's say just start with Kessler. Is
is it as simple as saying you have committed to
building this team around Luka Doncic. I think it's very
fair to say that is the reason that Lebron James
is not going to be on the Lakers next year
is you've you've made a clear pivot. You've decided you
are not prioritizing him that was obvious last year at
this time. Is it as simple as saying, Luca wanted
this to happen, and so you just had to do it.
And it's not like there's a choice where you go
sign Mitchell Robinson to an inflated deal or Robert Williams
a third and Luca is happy about it? Like is
that a Is that a persuasive argument to you for
defending the Lakers decision here?
Speaker 1: No, because wouldn't If you don't you need to surround
him with like athleticism and good defenders, and they've gone
and done. I would argue the I mean, Walker Castler
is a fantastic defender, but haven't they basically not checked
enough of those boxes when you're looking at the personnel
they went out and signed. I'm even laughing because in
the chat, why so I underscore one War one saying
they're so lucky they get bailed out in free agency
because they're the biggest market in the NBA. Yeah, and
they still fucked up free agency this year. It's almost impressive.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I as I was just throwing those names out there.
If you like, you would definitely be better off with
Robert Williams the third and Mitchell Robinson and all those picks,
then you would be with Walker Kessler like that to
me is not debatable. But again it just seems like
Lucas said, Walk Kessler or Durham make it happen, and
and they did it right, like, because from an asset
management perspective, this is insane given them herds that were available, right,
Is that that's not too strong?
Speaker 1: Is it?
Speaker 2: Like you could have? So I know, I'm just using
Williams and Robinson and they come with plenty of questions,
but like, those dudes together would have lost you way
less than Kessler per year.
Speaker 1: Serious question. Couldn't you've just gotten like Nemi As Kita
and Jalen Brown for less?
Speaker 2: It's yeah, okay, So now what's happening is as we
talked about the Celtics side, I started to see it
more clearly as like, I guess I can understand the trading.
Talking about the Lakers side of this, it makes even
less sense to me now than it did. Initially, I
was I was hoping you could give me a good
defense of the Lakers moves. But I don't see, well,
you're you.
Speaker 1: I think you provided the defense. It's just not sufficient
if Luca wanted it. Okay, great, At this rate, Luca's
going to be demanding a trade by twenty twenty eight
with the team that you've assembled around him, and I
you're right, because I think the argument was Mitchell Robinson
Robert Williams aren't going to be healthy enough to be
a starter. I mean, Walker Casher's been dealing with shoulder
issues for years, so we're just going to assume that he's.
Speaker 2: Just get two cracks at it with Williams and Robinson
or whoever Kada and And I guess Kada wasn't gonna
be available. Technically you could have traded for him, But like,
are the Lakers better than they were last year?
Speaker 1: This feels lateral. Last year you could have said, looking
at the landscape, but even before we knew the Spurs.
With the Spurs, I think you could have looked at
the landscape of the West, squinted and said Lakers could
be the third best team. M hmm. If you do
the same now you're gonna come up to the same conclusion.
Third best team has no chance of coming out of.
Speaker 2: The I love that. I think although you're so right,
but in both cases you're squinting, Like even even that
upside that little Smith. Yeah, that's a great call, right,
I think it. I think the best thing you can
say is that's is it's if it's not purely lateral.
If if they're marginally better, it's not significant.
Speaker 1: If their perimeter d got worse.
Speaker 2: Yeah, right, well without Smart, I mean Smart was like
the only dude that they had in the playoffs, right, Like,
it's it's man, I guess.
Speaker 1: Who is their best on ball perimeter defender right now?
Speaker 2: Is Rhymes Crimes? Who else? Is it? La Ravia? If
you want him to wait? Is he even back?
Speaker 1: Yeah, he couldn't play in the playoffs. Just well, he's
kind of a wing, so probably he won't be back.
They're definitely getting rood of him.
Speaker 2: It's lateral, maybe marginally better, but not in a way
that actually matters, Right, they didn't. They gave up everything
to and maybe be slightly better.
Speaker 1: Which, by the way, the results don't necessarily excuse the
process unless the results are made the Finals, probably, But
first argument's sake, let's get away from the process, which
you and I are struggling to even begin to justify
what happens that makes this offseason worth it? How good
does is it? Purely on how good does Walker Kessler
need to be? Is it if you finish third in
the West? Is that all right? Like? Yeah, we we
finished third in the West and look at like some
of the like Minnesota was there and the Rockets and
the Nuggets are still hanging around. I don't know what
needs like realistically, because this team is not winning the title,
it is not winning the Western Conference. It's it's just
it's not happening. What or maybe it's better to ask
how good does Walker Kessler need to be? Because the
other moves you cannot love them, and none of them
are potentially damning. I would say so Walker Kesler move
has the potential to be damning just because of the
asset outlay. How good does Walker Kesler need to be
for him to be worth this?
Speaker 2: We need he needs to be a name that we
mentioned every single time we're talking about defensive player of
the Year, Like I've already lost then this is right
because it's gonna be Wemby obviously if he's healthy, but
like Kessler needs to be someone that is is a
first team all defense type of guy, which I think
I think he's shown that he can be that. But
what's that? Does that matter if the rest I guess
for that to happen, the Lakers defense will have to
be pretty good, like very good. Which maybe that's where
this conversation actually doesn't because even if he's great on
his own, the rest of this defense is just so bad.
I well, okay, let's justify it for the for the
Lakers a little bit. JJ Reddick has managed to figure
out how to get competent defense on the floor for
long stretches with bad personnel, Like that's something that has
kind of defined his tenure. So if anybody's gonna sort
this out and make the Lakers a functional defense with
really like one good defender in a big role, it
might be him. Man, I didn't think I was gonna
I was gonna slide so far towards the negative. I
was a little negative, but I just I'm not seeing
it here. I'm not seeing it here.
Speaker 1: I really the way you phrased that, just maybe they
have one good defender and they can have.
Speaker 2: That's what it would take.
Speaker 1: I guess the other thing too, that's that's really bothering me.
I'm sure you've seen. So now they're in the we're
mentioning names like Yonas Valentune isn't Andre Drummond is what
they're focusing on after trading Ayton, and it's to get
the backup big for Walker Kessler. I would be prepared
to make the case that you're downgrading your defense even
further by having one of those. I know, Aighton's up
and down, but Aiden is more mobile than either of
those guys. The other thing they've been linked to, I
don't know if you've seen. There's a chance they could still.
So now they have these seconds, they save two point
one million dollars, and they have their twenty thirty two swop.
If that can be used to somehow dump a Jared
Vanderbilt or save money they're looking at, Oh maybe we
could bring Rui back, or we can bring in Jonathan
KAMINGA what what are we doing here? Like no like
ghost sign Zaiir Williams, go sign mattist Sibel, just anyone
who's pure defense. I someone else also made the point
which Ruy's a great example of this. Ruey was a
quality shot maker coming into LA, but he's been like
the best, one of the best three point shooters since.
It's because he got to play with Lebron and then
Luca and Austin Reeves as well. I think you could argue, again,
this isn't my argument. I forget where I heard it
or read it. Matisse Thibel just hanging out in the corners,
Zeiya Williams just hanging out in the corners might just
be awesome three point shooters and they're gonna give you
more on defense. Maybe you could say the same about
Jonathan Kaminga. But what do we know about Jonathan Kamingo. Oh,
he's not gonna defend and he's not gonna he's not
gonna space. That's not what he wants to do.
Speaker 2: The idea of the Lakers bringing in Kaminga with with
with his job being defend, rebound cut and them believing
in the wake of all that's happened throughout his career
that he's gonna be happy with that, that is the
funniest thing that could ever ever happen this offseason, because
those are exactly the things the Warriors were begging him
to do for his whole career, and he just will
not do them. He can do them, but he will not.
He will not do them. It's not a it's not
it's not a can't. It's a won't. And maybe some
don't know how, but it's not a can't. That's like
that would be. It's just hilarious and I frankly want
to see it. I want to see it happen.
Speaker 1: I want to ask you a question, now, what is
Luka Doncic? So when next season is twenty six, twenty seven,
then twenty seven to twenty eight, is Lukadancic still on
the Lakers after the twenty seven to twenty eight season.
Speaker 2: I mean, he didn't want to leave Dallas. I'm gonna
say yes, but just that's because he just doesn't seem
like someone that agitates to change. Like it seemed like
the Dallas move really rocked him and he wanted to
be there and they didn't want him, and that's why
it happened. But I think he will be But I
will acknowledge what you're saying here, which is that the
Lakers really this is it, This was the this this
was the big move off season. Uh and it's not
going to get Luca where he wants to go. I
don't think from a from a like a big time
winning standpoint, we could be I guess we could be wrong.
This could be this offense could be the best in
the league or something like. Maybe maybe that's the way
it happens. But even that's a huge stretch.
Speaker 1: What is the de I guess if they have a
what's their defensive ceiling relative the personnel they have right now?
Is it? Could they be top twelve? Sure, Walker Kessel's
playing thirty five minutes a game. I guess you get
some opponent three point shooting luck, that's the right.
Speaker 2: What I feel more comfortable with is saying they could
be a top ten defense in Kessler's minutes. But I
would''m not prepared to say what it looks like without
it's it'll be awful without him. I like, right, I
just don't know how you're there's no way there better
than average without him.
Speaker 1: I just like, and that's very generous. I think, can
we talk about this from the jazz is perspec?
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's crazy?
Speaker 1: What else? I do agree that it's they got good
value for Walker Kessler, But now you have Jackson Hayes
and use of Nurkic and the idea of the Jaron
Jackson Junior at the five minutes, which I would say
they're not Brittain. No breaking case of emergency is a
bridge too far. But that's something you go to as
a closing lineup, not as you're just default. That's our
base system.
Speaker 2: It's there is an element of this is pretty disappointing
for the Jazz because I do think Kesler was part
of the plan, like it was always.
Speaker 1: By the way, I was prepared to predict they were
gonna win fifty games next year when I thought Kessler
was coming back. I'm not going to get there now
because I don't know what the defensive I don't know
what their defensive baseline is.
Speaker 2: He was pretty clearly part of the plan, like him, Jackson, Markanen,
and then you have George and maybe it's Bailey, maybe
it's whoever else, like Kesler was the defensive plan, which
again which he is in LA now too, but it
is I am imagine this was not the Jazz's intention.
They really, I think wanted to keep him. But we've
been saying this a lot lately. This is just an
offer you have to accept, like you just have to
take four first round assets for for Kessler, especially if
keeping him was gonna mean paying him what he wanted.
And I think like now, normally you'd say, well, if
he's worth four first round assets on the market, why
don't you just sign him to the max or whatever
or match whatever the Lakers pay him and then trade
him later. I think that's because only the Lakers were
giving up four first round assets for Walker Kessler. I
don't think that that's not his market value. That's right,
that's what they valued him at. But that was the
only place you're ever gonna get four first for Walker Kessler.
Speaker 1: So you say, yes, yeah, But also, what were you
if you're the Jazz, what would you you would have
been willing to accept this for less? Right? I would
love to know how this good did the LA Lakers?
Speaker 2: Do you think they should have told the Lakers that.
It's like, you guys really don't to the fourth cook
is excessive and.
Speaker 1: You didn't even get off like you couldn't get off
Jared Vanderbilt's deal as part of it. That's the other thing.
It's like you couldn't even get like a minor victory
like that. I my guest would be the Lakers came
in with two firsts and they talked in the swaps
or two first and because insane, you had to make
this trade as the Jazz. But it is kind of
a bummer. I wanted to see the marketing, uh Kessler,
Jared Jackson junior front court. I'm also wondering did they
get a little pocket shy because Okay, you're paying Kessler,
Triple J and Larry Markin already on these deals, and
now you have Keante George's extension coming up, which would
kick in in twenty twenty seven. They they play fundamentally
different positions, like don't you can't get any different than
your point guard and your center. Essentially, do you think
this makes it more likely though, that now Keyante George
gets an extension or they're more comfortable investing in him,
or do you just view this as such a can't
miss opportunity.
Speaker 2: That doesn't mean ultimately all all of that, but ultimately
the again, I'll see you. You can't turn this down
if you're the Jazz under the circumstances, you just can't.
You can't walk away from this return. It does make it, It
does make it more likely that they're gonna invest in
George though, just because there's more to invest. You didn't
burn a dollar on the on this trait, you know,
Like I I think I think whether that means an
extension is more likely, I don't know, but but now
it just makes more sense from a I don't know,
a roster composition standpoint. You got two front court guys
making a bunch of money, it makes more sense to
have a backcourt guy, I guess, just objectively making the
other big salary as opposed to three front court guys. Yeah,
I don't know. Again, you're never gonna get this kind
of return for Walker Kessler. I don't think I would
be shocked, right, Like if he wins Defensive Player of
the Year. I guess what was the Gobert? Were there
four first involved in the Gobert deal or five or something?
Speaker 1: Yeah, but you'd already won defense that he's done.
Speaker 2: You Bestessler does that unless he builds a track record
as good as Go Bears, you aren't getting this this.
It's just like, do you.
Speaker 1: Think or maybe this was how the Jazz negotiated it,
but do you think that we're overvaluing those first round picks.
Now forget about first of all, it will probably be
in a different lottery system by the time most of
those things convey. But do you think we're overvaluing them
because the Lakers do have Luca, Therefore they're just gonna
always have this higher floor.
Speaker 2: M there's yeah, No, I mean I think that's fair
to say just because it's it's less like, well, you
would say it's less likely for the Lakers to bottom
out and those picks to be not fully bottom out
because it's a new lottery system, but to be bad
enough where those picks are really highly valuable. But we're
not that far removed from like the Lakers were bad
enough to pick D'Angelo Russell and Brandon Ingram at the
top five of the draft and Lonzo Ball and they
had I mean, they were real bad for a good
stretch there, pre Lebron and pre ad. So I don't
think you get to necessarily say that these picks are
inherently and definitely devalued because it's the Lakers. The Lakers
have been real bad for a long time recently, so like,
I don't now they can't do it for me now
they could comfortably enter the relegation zone in those years.
Speaker 1: If it still exists by that point, which it may
be so bad that these picks are less valuable, that's
one likely I'll call it Maya Kolpa. I thought I
didn't think the office. I wasn't one of the people
that thought the off season was gonna stink, but I was.
I was convinced that we weren't going to see a
ton of like huge moves. The Giannie is Giannis. You
just give up because it's Giannie. But these draft picks
being thrown around for Miles Bridges, Walker Kessler is one
of them. I was so wrong. I don't know how
much of that has to do with I haven't read
enough into the like lottery credit system to where is
their way to maybe game around that a little bit
if you think that's where the NBA is headed. I am,
I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I was, like,
I this is probably think I've been most wrong about
it quite some time.
Speaker 2: I mean, I can't claim to have I can't claim
to have like saw this coming at all. But what
I do think from a reactionary standpoint is this is great.
And do you know why all these picks are flying around.
I think is because you can't really truly exercise control
over them by being as bad as possible in tanking
and getting a great shot at a super high pick.
So if the median value of a first round pick
is lower because you can't make sure it's top four
or whatever, that's a good thing. This is the first
like positive outcome from the new lottery is that transactions
are going bonkers because teams don't have the well, we'll
just keep it in tank like you know, posture anymore.
I think that's a good thing.
Speaker 1: You're right, I think that is a good thing. But
I'm curious to see now if those teams are just
is there a chance to end up they've set those
picks on fire. So let's say the relegation going zone
still exist. Let's use the nets and bulls. The nets
is an example, because they don't control their pick this year,
we're gonna get to a point with the amount of
twenty thirty one and twenty thirty three picks that are
flowing as there's just gonna be a bunch of teams
that are eh like, we're not We're not gonna be
good like we're gonna So I'm inntioned to see if
there's just the you have to pay the piper at
some point when it comes to the level of competition.
What I also don't like this is we're veering very
far away from the jazz here. But if the Jalen
Brown and LaMelo Ball stuff, we're a lot of well
we're worried about their next contracts when they still have
three years left on their current one, it's gonna create
this situation of insane roster turnover where I like it
when teams are able to stay together, like yes, Jalen
Brown and Jason Tatum, I guess you could argue ran there.
Of course, there's the hornets were just getting off the
ground and felt like And so I'm now wondering if
this is the way teams are thinking about We've yet
to really see it, because even you can't justify the
LaMelo Ball and Jalen Brown trades in that way just yet.
But like, we've yet to see a team try and
squeeze a player of that caliber. But if if we're
at the point where they're worried about non top fifteen
players making anywhere near the max, I think it's going
to create this weird just like cycle of extra turnover
more than we're already used to when there's always been
a lot of player movement, but with kneecapping, a free agency,
and extension rules, it felt as if a lot of
stars might be staying put. I'm wondering for the next CBA,
there's gonna be some type of correction where if a
players with a team that's with drafted him or been
their extra years, they're not They're going to count towards
a smaller percentage of the cap or something. Because I
don't love the idea of there just being so much
turnover that teams don't get the chance to stay together.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, and that was a driving factor and
I don't know two cbas ago or whatever with the
like you can offer your own guy a fifth year
that nobody else can, and you can go high a
higher percentage of the cap and all that stuff. They're
the only certainty about any reform is that there's gonna
be over correct, like it will have gone too far
in one direction or the other, and you'll have to
correct for it. That's just kind of priced in. I
think you're probably right about that. What do you want
to do and What's what big deal have we not
talked about? Well?
Speaker 1: I think this is a big deal. Is Karnthi Town's
playing forty eight minutes per game next season? Mitchell Robinson gone?
You know who else is gone? Aaron Hookporty went to
the seventy six ers. There's your emergency podcast banner that
I forgot to throw up at the top. What are
the Knicks? We were prepared for them to lose Mitchell Robinson,
but they've been linked to and I don't like, I'm
not gonna say it this placause I hate when people
say to me people are getting way too excited about
the idea of Kevon Looney potentially going to New York.
Speaker 2: I talking to the wrong guy. If you don't understand that, sir.
Speaker 1: I get it like three years ago, but as of
right now, he played in twenty one games for the
Pelicans last season. I don't as a locker room player, sure,
but I'm not if I'm the Knicks. I'm not comfortable
going into next season with Kevon Looney, Karnthy Towns, and
og At the five lineups in my back pocket is like,
that's rotating.
Speaker 2: You're definitely a body short there. I would say, Looney
can be seventy percent as good as Mitchell Robinson and
maybe play eighty percent as often, so like and this
is Mitchell Robinson we're talking about. So if that's on
the minimum, I don't have an issue with Looney as
your third guy, I think because there I do still
believe that on a good team, he might have a
few weeks where he's given you ten good minutes a night,
you know, but that's not a backup. That's that's especially
for a team that is coming off one hundred game season,
and you can't have Kat out there for more minutes
than he played last year. So they definitely are a
player a center away from being comfortable I have.
Speaker 1: So I have two main follow up questions. Why don't
I throw a bunch of trade targets at you for them?
But coronthy Town's I've gone back and forth because we
just saw Trey Young get what he got. Connee Town's
is extension eligible, oh boy. But then we also just
saw the way this the Celtics treated John Brown. And
now there are analytics this year that you could have
found that Karnthi Towns was more valuable to the Knicks
than John Brunson was should we have that conversation? But
do you think his extensions do you think one, assuming
he signs one? Do you think what has transpired this
summer bodes well for him or makes it more likely
that he will accept less than the max? Because the
max is the honesty. It's like the four two hundred
and seventy plus whatever ends up with. In my head,
I came into the summer thinking fifty million a year,
that's where he should be at. And then I see
just Trey Young get paid after being salary dumped, and
karlthy Towns might be the consummate Victor Weber yamafoil at
this point. And that's not me being a homer. That's
just I don't know which big is a worse matchup
for him. And so if I'm karlnthy Towns, I'm sitting
and watching this, I'm saying Trey Young's getting maxed out,
Walker Kessler's worth four first round picks. Why wouldn't I
just want money? But then you see the way Boston
treated Jalen Brown's contract that they treated as a net negative.
Whether it is or isn't, that's how they treated it.
I have no idea what to expect should he sign
an extension anymore.
Speaker 2: That's it's I hadn't even given this any thought. That
it is fascinating because there are all those elements that
would make him justifiable in saying Max. I just we
just want a title. And I was the second most
I mean, I was among the biggest reasons that we
did it. And the guy that we're going to have
to be probably if we go back to the finals,
like good luck chat yeah, better option, right, like, so
then you weigh that against the like the the Knicks
culture og excluded of taking less. Uh maybe that I
I don't know. I I would say that it's I'll
speak personally before this offseason and before the finals, I
would have said, like, if you're giving cap more than
like forty, you're out of your mind. And there were
probab points where I would have been even lower than
that when back when we said, like he's a center,
they can't play center, and he doesn't actually provide real
stretch and he can't guard and all that stuff. His
value is up from there. So for me, it's I
would be far less surprised if he got the MAX. Now,
then I would have been at any point leading up
to this, But I still don't know if that's if
that's enough, if of all the good and all the
value he's added is enough to offset the broad fear
that all these teams seem to be showing about having
these giant numbers on their books, Because it does seem
like you're right, like teams are real scared of the
Jalen Brown level money, it seems, and Kat would be
in line for that. So I don't, I don't, I
don't know. Do you think he's getting an extension?
Speaker 1: They would be fools not to figure it out, because
what did we just say? If if this is true,
I've seen some speculation the Wizards just agreed to this
deal to Tray Young when they traded for him, and
they let it leak that other teams were going to
max him out. But if there was a team working
ready to max out Trey Young after last season, the
only it it only takes one team. The argument is
far more persuasive for Karl Anthony Towns after what we
just watched than Trey Young. I just don't believe anyone
was maxing I I've it feels way more plausible to
me that the Oh, we're worried we paid Triyon this
much because somebody else was going to It's more plausible
to me that that is total bullshit.
Speaker 2: Than than than the truth. Uh but yeah, I'm your point.
K Cat is Cat's Cat is far more deserving of
a Trey Young level deal than Trey Young is.
Speaker 1: My official prediction is going to be signs and extension
for like four years, two hundred and five to two
hundred and ten million. That's noticedly below the max. It
would shave about fifteen million bucks depending on how they
started off his next year's salary, which would give them.
They're apparently not willing to pay the second apron because
James Dolen's a the most trouble way to put it.
I don't the big man spot, though, I increase in
like the Andre Drummond being on the open market. Still,
it feels like they need to address it via trade.
I'm now looking at Charlotte, they just took on before
we hopped on Dorian Phinney Smith for second round picks.
They're acting like a team that's not concerned with what's
happening next season. You're still gonna run into a problem
next year because he's gonna be a free agent. But
like Pacomb Doatier plus, how many seconds do you want
for Mussa Diabate?
Speaker 2: Well, they were want the next in on mecI too
because they could actually.
Speaker 1: Well the mecI thing is interesting because were you trading
McBride to match that salary or were you aggregating Colic
and Dottier. Those were your two options, And I understand
if you were aggregating Colic and Dottie, I understand why
the Pelicans are saying, no, we're good.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, uh, I think what I'd rather have Diabate
for sure. I don't know if do you have enough?
Speaker 1: Like do you's they have enough set? They have enough
seconds if the cost is seconds. But if you viewed
the Charlotte also has like twenty second round picks over
the next seven years.
Speaker 2: It is it's in fact it is one.
Speaker 1: So but they did just draft Jannis Steinbach. They have
nas reed. Ryan Kalkbrenner's there. But if it's not Diabotte,
go take a look at Ryan Kulkbrener, who's super cheap
for the.
Speaker 2: Next two years.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wanted to throw one final one at you.
From San Quinn of CBS Sports I hadn't even given
this thought. My answer is no, don't let that color
what you say your twenty thirty three first round pick,
since those are just being given out like candy your
twenty thirty two swap the salary, which is easy to
get to for khalil Ware.
Speaker 2: Well, are you getting there with some combination of Kolek
and Dottier or whatever?
Speaker 1: It has to be two players, right, because khalil Ware
is making like five minut I'll look at what Khalil
wears on the books and that's I.
Speaker 2: Mean, so you need a body and where if he's
not a starter, which is I feel like the jury
is still out on that. They're probably some of Miami
fans that think the verdict is in and he's not
that guy. That's It's tough because in the Knicks position,
you you just have to overpay because you win another title.
Speaker 1: He's at four point seven, so I think the Knicks
could get there with Dottie A's three and so you
could do kole Ak and Dottie would get you there.
So if you're giving up those first round picks, I'm
not giving up Duce McBride, No, thank you, it's not happen.
Speaker 2: Well, I'd rather give up Duce and not have to
give up both of those first rounders.
Speaker 1: But I just don't that's oh yeah, I don't think
that that wasn't I was framing it as Deuce in
the first plus those.
Speaker 2: Other I I think I'm taking my chances on a
minimum instead.
Speaker 1: Thank you please. I just I want to make sure
it wasn't just me.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I I you just can't guarantee me that
where is going to be so much more valuable than
a minimum guy that it's worth giving up all that
other stuff.
Speaker 1: Nick's adjacent Lebron watched four point zero. What did you
make of the You actually had some whether Rich Paul
going on his own podcast and outlining the five or
six teams that are like Lebron is considering. So it
was Philly Denver was on there, which maybe it's performative,
but I fucking just love that the idea that Lebron
might be considering teaming up with Yo Kich, Miami, Cleveland,
and Golden State. My only thought po either to you, Well,
I haven't many thoughts, but my one thought I want
to say is Miami would just be so lame. Been there, done,
that you're not going on a contender, You're still not
there yet. I get the appeal of Cleveland. It's a
good storybook ending Golden State. I'd love to see him
and Steph play together. I'm just rooting for Denver at
this point because that would be so not random, but
it would just be cool. Where do you land on
the whole one? Lebron watched two non Warriors division. Where
do you think he should go?
Speaker 2: Uh? So, I'll start with maybe it's performative. Every single
aspect of it is performative. It's being recorded audio and
video and sold with ads as an entertainment product.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think we're saying we're not authentic.
Speaker 2: No, we're performative. This whole thing is performative. Everybody that's
doing this is performing.
Speaker 1: You actually hate each other more than Tatum and jb
off Air. Nobody knows.
Speaker 2: Just sixers don't have enough to trade for me. They
so I I saw. I haven't seen the video of
the Rich Paul Whiteboard. I've seen the clips of it.
I've seen people making jokes about the various selling points
in places like Dallas, Like I guess Lebron's a big
oil and gas guy. Lebron big landman fan just really
wants to get in there and get in the oil
and gas industry. I have such a visceral, like puke
reaction to any any time, Like I don't rich Paul Is.
He can do what he wants, like make as much
money as you can, like get as much attention as
you can. I guess it's just like I don't see
any value in it. I think it's just like kind
of icky and obnoxious that there's an agent on his
podcast sort of like generating more interest and keeping his
guy in the news. And I get it, that's how
the game is played. I just kind of hate it
and I think it sucks and I wish we didn't
live in this kind of world. But like this is
so what we can talk about the destinations, but I
just like I hate every aspect of this self emotion machine.
Speaker 1: Is this coming from the perspective of, well, where's Jonathan
Kaminga's podcast? Pitch?
Speaker 2: I mean ninety but probably is that's what it is? Uh,
Denver is a ton of fun that would be way
better than Miami. I agree on your behalf. I would
say why not the Knicks?
Speaker 1: Oh? Actually, can we so one of the things that
you didn't watch it. Rich Paul said, if the Knicks
didn't win the title, Lebron would just be going to
the Knicks. I think it's easy to say that because
the Knicks won the title. What he did say that
I found interesting was that for the Knicks to still
get Lebron or for Lebron to go there, and he
did outline I thought was what I found interesting was
him saying Lebron going to a team that just won
the title isn't fair to that team because of the
disruption it provides. I thought that was fairly self aware
of the situation. Yeah, but he said the Knicks have
checked in which Jake Fisher had reported before that podcast
went live. Maybe he got footage of the podcast before
it went live, or maybe he just has sources. Who knows, Uh,
he has sources. But he said John Brunson would have
to call Lebron and say, look like we want like
this could work. I want you here. And so my
question that I posed to you before we hopped on
because I wanted to make sure I'm not taking crazy pills.
I think if you asked a lot of Knicks fans,
they would say keep this dude away from my team
right now. And I'm in my head if this is legitimate,
and all it takes is a phone call from Jalen
Brunson to get him to sign for the minimum, I
am blowing up Lebron's phone.
Speaker 2: Like, no question, no question. I'm like, I don't. I
just the the idea of like him being disruptive somehow
is well yeah, like it would. It would change the
dynamic a lot, and like part of what's so appealing
about the Knicks is like the vibes are pretty great, right,
Like everybody seems to like each other, right, Like, well,
this is one of those situations where like literally any
change you make probably makes it worse because it's impossible
to make it better, right like that, just because this
is this is as good as it gets. I still
would want Lebron James on my team for the minimum,
Like what are we talking about? You can wave him
if you want, Like, if what's it going to cost you?
If all this isn't gonna work at all? He's there's
too much attention on us, Like I don't. I just okay,
you're invested in nothing? Who cares?
Speaker 1: Honestly? I think the only reason not to do it.
I know that Lebron comes with a spectacle, some of
which I think is or much of it is by
his own design. Yes, I think the real concern would be, well,
now we know that one of Josh Harden Mchal Bridges
is not going to be closing games, and is that
something that I understand. It's easy to say, well, just
get over it and figure it out, but like that
that's a meaningful thing, especially coming off a title to
to find out that, oh, I'm not part of our
We've seen Mike Brown make those calls in the moment
where it's no, mchail Bridges isn't closing, Josh Hard isn't closing.
Karnthy Towns isn't closing. Really, John Brunton and og An
Andobi were the only two year wire to wire that
we're just sharp eyed in we're closing with them. So
I understand it from that perspective. But I also this
is maybe me being greedy, but I I just wouldn't care.
Speaker 2: I think you're not gonna come up with a single like, uh,
potential problem doesn't want to that's it. That would be it, Like,
but beyond that, go get him, like what are we
taught this is ridiculous, Like there's no.
Speaker 1: Which is there, which is why I think Rich Paul
is lying. It's easy to say this because it's not
going to happen, now, do you know what I mean?
Speaker 2: If that course of course, yeah, Denver, I'm with you
on Denver Dallas doesn't make any sense at all. Uh.
I think I think the realistic candidates are the ones
that have been actually reported and not thrown out there
by his official paid representation. Uh so you're.
Speaker 1: So wild of a thing, that is to say, yeah, right,
you're not wrong either.
Speaker 2: Then again, like the paid representation is very much responsible
for leaking to those reporters who is actually involved in
addition to the teams your Cleveland, sure you you've already
gone over Cleveland, Golden State, Miami. I don't see. I
would put Denver no lower than third of like the
if if that's even a realistic so you.
Speaker 1: Have the warriors in their own tier.
Speaker 2: Correct, it's just of course, you know we've already talked
about this, like that's I want that worse than anything.
Speaker 1: What is your prediction if I'm forcing make one, which I.
Speaker 2: Am, I if I get too, it's Golden State and Cleveland,
and I think if I get one again, this is
probably the heart's talking a little bit here, but I
think it's Golden State. Like the proximity to LA I
think is being undervalued, like he's got all these other interests,
his family's there, his daughter still in school, like I
think moving even if so, that's why Cleveland is the
sort of obvious second one. Oh, the Sixers are another
one that's kind of been mentioned here. After the Brown trade,
you known to move all the way across the country
to a team that even within makes less sense there
now well, I mean in no, because I think the
team is better and so if he wants to win
a championship or like play meaningful basketball, play hashtag meaningful basketball.
The Sixers are more intriguing for that reason. But like
from a fit perspective, sure, if it's like, well you
got Brown, like I guess I would probably play Lebron
over Dean Wade. If that's the positional situation we're talking about.
I don't know what the advanced metrics say, though maybe
they probably like Wade better.
Speaker 1: I'm picking Golden State as well because I'm I can't
for anyone who has didn't listen to our previous episode.
I'm just latching onto the fact now, I had no
idea that the Warriors basically trademark the word phrase meaningful basketball.
And the fact that Rich Paul or whoever leaked that
statement initially following his decision not to go back to
the Lakers. That's just I think that's the only thing
that makes sense now, and that maybe it's a two
year deal and the second year spent in Cleveland, but
it feels next year to me. I think it's gonna
be the Warriors we have. If Golden State doesn't get
a D, it's not happening. Well, speaking of a D,
I think we just have two topics we need to hit. Okay,
the eight and trade. This is maybe I'm overstepping here
or overreading into it, but if you just acquired DeAndre
Ayton as the Wizards while giving up second round picks
to do so, doesn't it make it more likely that
you're gonna trade Anthony Davis? Uh?
Speaker 2: Well, if the alternative, what's the alternative explanation that they
value him as a third big at eight million dollars?
And I guess two seconds feels yeah, I guess it
feels I think it's that that's still a possibility. And
this is this is the Wizards, by the way, who
we have just recently gotten confirmation, are still totally irrational.
So you gotta you gotta price that in a little bit.
You're right, I didn't price that in. Yeah, think about
who we're talking about. Yeah, I think I think you're
not wrong to look at it as as Okay, well, uh,
you know, clearly there's a market, there's interest in a
d Maybe this is the time to move him, especially
if we are not going to extend him, which is
kind of the as much as anything, that's kind of
the deciding factor here. If you're not going to extend him,
then you probably do need to just move him because
the value is going to go down and when he
makes a trade demand or says I'm only signing X,
Y or Z, so you want to avoid that if
you can.
Speaker 1: Do they get more for him than the South they's
got for Jalen Brown.
Speaker 2: Well, what was the Warriors rumor package? I guess it
never really he was sort of crystallized, But yes, because yeah,
because that all that would take is two legit firsts, right.
Speaker 1: And an expiring contract probably right, or a contract that's
not viewed as toxic.
Speaker 2: It's not a negative. Yeah, you're not. I don't think
you're taking back bad money for Davis. I think you're
taking back.
Speaker 1: I would have said the same thing about a Jaylen
Brown trade a few days ago.
Speaker 2: Well, I'm if you got to pin me down, I'm
saying the Wizards will get more than the Celtics got.
Speaker 1: The other thing I wanted to talk to about is
the Rockets in general. So they traded Dorian Phinney Smith
got out of his contract. They added Marcus Smart for
the Mini mL. It looks like it was reporters two
years and thirteen million dollars, which I guess they'd have
the ability to do after trading Dorrian Finie Smith, but
looks like he's signing for the Mini mL e Tari
Easton back at five years and eighty one point five
fully guaranteed. That is less if you could, which you can't.
If you could give out a non tax mL deal
for five years with five percent raises, it would amount
to more than what Tary Eason just got, which, by
the way, I think makes the Lakers offseason look even worse.
I just don't they couldn't have gotten Tari Easan, but
so Mamu was worth fifty four two over four. It's
just I will say, do you know what, it definitely
makes look worse the Christian Brown deal, Right. I know
they're different players. I know they're different players, but you
could make the case they're similarly impactful. If Esan's not
more impactful, this is gonna top out. I know this
is usually where you do it, but I saw the
number and I was like, I had to do the conversion.
Speaker 2: At its highest point. Easan's deal will make up nine
point two percent of the projected salary cap. And this
is a guy that is a rotation player for sure
right now. And if he develops as a shooter I'm
talking is like two percent better because he was just
under thirty six percent last year, then this is a heist.
I don't know how likely that is, Like he's far
enough into his career where like he's probably just a
slightly below average three point shooter. But if he's any
better than he's been, uh, this is one of the
better deals signed by anybody. I think team team. From
a team perspective, I assume you agree. I feel like
you've always been a little higher on Easton than me,
but even I got to concede. This is just this
is a great deal for Houston, even though it's like
I don't know if this is even the type of
player Houston needs. Value proposition, He feels more, Yeah, he
feels more like a luxury to them. And I think
the three point shooting is shaky, but the volume is
has gone up. The defense is I don't want to
say the defense is.
Speaker 1: Overrated, but I don't want him defending he when he
plays the flour or like, he's just abruptive. He's disruptive
and like makes he's a make shit happen guy, and
that he's the he's the inverse of John Brown, right, sure,
sure he's doing stuff off the ball. There's like all
these marginal he like he speeds guys up, you know
that kind of like that kind of stuff. Yeah, I
think I think conventionally as a defender he's overrated, but
I think he's probably underrated in terms of just like
his impact on Like he can change a game just
by like the way that he plays. And again, nine
percent of the cap at its at its peak for
this deal, like that's worth it. I have a more
macro question about what that means, but I did I've
I've so far loved Houston's offseason, but I am sort
of wondering Fred Vanvleet's gonna be healthy, Marcus Smart is there? Now?
Is it time to free read Shepherd to another team?
Or is this or does this signal you know what?
Maybe we can get away with more Jabbari at the
five now that Marcus Smart is back.
Speaker 2: Interesting Maybe yeah, maybe maybe it's it is. I mean,
Read Shepherd well was always going to be a talking
point for us, but the van Vliet being back like
he's Shepherd is not gonna start like and he's is
he gonna close?
Speaker 1: You know what? Here's he's not right? Is going to
play Marcus Martin, Fred Vanfleet over reached Shepherd in time?
Speaker 2: I think, I think so a line of thinking. I
think the when we were talking about the Blazers and
Scoot and Sharp. This kind of line of thinking has
started to creep into my analysis of stuff more lately.
I don't know if that means it's right, but I'm
the idea of like all I read prove it, like
this is not an optimal situation for you. There's guys
ahead of you in the rotation. We just got another one.
I don't Bogdanovitch might play well enough to steal minutes
from Shepard, but if Shephard is who we think he is,
he'll he'll he'll find a way to be a bigger
part of this team than he was now. That assumes
a fair shake for Mudoka, which is by a lot
of Rockets fans accounts not happened. But as a what
do you think about that? Just am I being like too?
Speaker 1: Uh?
Speaker 2: It's like almost like a boomer take of like, well,
if you're good enough, figure it out. You know you
like is that too? Is that not right? Because you're
starting to appeal to me, You're you are right?
Speaker 1: And I was. I was interrogated, unfairly interrogated by Solomon
and Forrest on the Rockets Offseason look Ahead, asking did
you see reed Shepherd's minutes? Why do you think that
he didn't get a fair shake? And I said, I
see the minutes. I think it too long for him
to get to the minutes. And they did a lot
of Shenanians when it came to end of game stuff.
That's where I have an issue. Now that you have
other options that are worthwhile and like there was no
friend van Fleet last year. They didn't make a trade
at the trade deadline. So you are now you're more
right than ever is you. Are you proving it in practice?
Are you? You know what? Yeah, short Burst might not
be the easiest stretches to play in. That's too bad.
You got two guys who were in front of you
with the pecking order. So he has reached that point.
But it is kind of a bummer because I still
believe in him that I don't know if he's going
to get more of an opportunity Glasgow to desk. What
do you even get for Reed Shepherd selling as long
as you might as well keep him. I look, I
give up Paul George in the two first round picks?
Speaker 2: You would would you give up here?
Speaker 1: Okay? Would you give up Peyton Pritchard for Reed Shepherd?
Speaker 2: No, because you would never trade Jalen Brunson right before
he becomes Jalen Brunson for Reed Shepherd. That's one even
you can appreciate because it's Jalen Brunson specifically.
Speaker 1: No, I t for Reed Shepherd right now. I'm so
invested in being right and married to.
Speaker 2: My take that aging, you know, like he's Jalen Brunson's
never going to be more valuable than he is right now,
So you probably want to just get out of the
game if you can.
Speaker 1: The So the macro question I had this is really
related to Tarry Easton, and by the way, Good mentioned
on Bogdanovitch. I thought that was like a nice minimum
fly I don't know what he has left, but I
thought that was a good minimum flyer by them. If
Tari Easan got that, what does Peyton Watson get?
Speaker 2: I think he's still a nine figure guy. I think
I think if it's four for twenty five or or
something like that, it does it does not bode well
for him that it's gone on this long and we
haven't heard like I haven't even seen like a rumor about,
you know, I haven't like we've Kessler and Duran and
we're certainly like, well, all these teams are interested, they're
taking meetings, like, not a peep about Peyton Watson has
really been on my radar. So that said, I still
think he's someone that if you signed for twenty five
million dollars a year like that, dude is tradable for value.
If you're the Nuggets and maybe that's all that matters
to you, But I think he's I think I'm inclined
to think that the shooting progression is like close enough
to reel last year, and the defense and the athleticism,
like that's just someone that has got to be worth
significantly more than Easan. Still, I think.
Speaker 1: I agree that he has more. There's more to his
game and Easton has, especially when you're looking offensively. I'm
just curious because it's easy for him to use the
Christian Brown five years, one hundred and twenty five basically
as his analog is baseline. But if this other stuff
is happening, where Tarry Eastan, who's at least they're all
in like the similar archetype of players. He's accepting that.
I know he's had more health issues, but Peyton Watson
didn't finish the season healthy in Denver. I'm just curious.
I still think this all ends up with their salary
dumping someone and he'll get paid and I'll take the
over for sure on it. But I initially thought he
was gonna be like thirty million a year. Yeah, I'm
now sort of wondering if we just did the market's
just gonna shift kind of measurably year to year. I
think I'm gonna take under thirty is gonna be we go.
Speaker 2: I'll probably go under thirty. I can't remember where I
landed before. I feel like I was in the twenty
five to thirty range and like, you just bite the
bullet if it is thirty. But yeah, I think I
think you're probably right. What about Duran do you want
to make Let's make this thing stale and like just
make a Durham prediction right now.
Speaker 1: Well, I'm gonna make another prediction about Peyton Watson. I
think you saw the KCP thing. Memphis is working towards.
I think everyone's assuming by out I'm looking they preserve
the triple J trade a player exception. I feel like
this ends with Christian Brown Cam Johnson on the GRIZ
least KCP back in Denver. That's how they cut the cost.
Speaker 2: That's my guys, that would be just brutal.
Speaker 1: Do you think so? For Jaln Durran, do you think
the Walker Kessler thing transaction helped or hurt him because
it took the Lakers off the board, But it also
if Walker Kessler coming off a five game season, who
doesn't have as deep of an offensive bag as John
Duran got four for one thirty. What does that mean for? Like,
that should in theory give John Duran some leverage that No,
I go back and forth on it.
Speaker 2: It helps in that it taking the Lakers off the
board hurts. Even if that was Maybe that wasn't as
much of a smoke screen as it seemed, because the
Lakers did get Kessler, so like it's possible that they were.
I mean, you have to take it more seriously. I
didn't with the Pistons.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. Where the Pistons have accepted that offer for
John Duran and assign and trade. If you're the Pistons,
do you say no? Hmm?
Speaker 2: I think it would have been harder for the Pistons
to say yes, But I I think I might have
if I were.
Speaker 1: I'm trying to think of which bigs I wouldn't have
traded for that package. I'm not gonna lie wemby. Is
that it dude's trade talents for that package? I don't
know at this point.
Speaker 2: So uh, I think I'm where I'm gonna land is
where I've been all along, which is all the Pistons
are gonna have to do is do the four to
one seventy seven or the whatever, the most that someone
else could offer.
Speaker 1: The Austin Reeves deal.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think they're gonna have to match because
where's that coming from. I think that's just where it settles.
And I would just say, I would say, if you
made me pick over under that number, I would go under.
I just don't think there's any way the Pistons go
over what another team could pay him. There's there's no
sense in that. But that's well. I guess ultimately my
my stance on Durham hasn't changed. I think that's what
he should get, and that looks like what he probably
will get. I think you think he'll get he'll get
a Do you think he'll get a Kessler number? Do
you think he's gonna have to take four for one
thirty man? But I think that's more in line with
his value.
Speaker 1: I think.
Speaker 2: I agree.
Speaker 1: I think the four year max is an overpay.
Speaker 2: I agree, but but I think the Pistons might just
do it because there's threat.
Speaker 1: Who's the threat out there?
Speaker 2: There isn't one. There isn't one. There isn't one. But
I think that you could you if you're Detroit. You
could you could pretty easily talk yourself into this that
being a win because well, we didn't have to do
a fifth year and we didn't have to go another
one hundred million. On top of that he was eligible
for or whatever it was.
Speaker 1: Look, Detroit was able to resign Kevin Hurder. I think
that's really all that matters. Prince alf The Actually the
other thing I just realized. So you saw Kendrick Williams,
they declined his team option in Oklahoma City and then
they he resigned for five million, So you really only
saved two million bucks. The scenario that we outlined where
it was Thomas Orber and Nicola topic no longer gets
them out of the second apron, right, are we just
this is like a Loudor trade is gonna happen by
the deadline? Man? Is that where we're because I don't
think this team is going to stay in the second apron.
Speaker 2: Or a or a uh Jay will trade would be
another option, because that's if you're looking at the center depth,
like you know, that's part of the reason Sorber seemed
expendable is because you just restocked with Mara and you've
got Chet and you brought hardenstain back, like I like
Jay Will as a key piece of this, as a
piece of the team, like I still think he has
a lot of use as a shooter. But I don't know.
I have really flipped on this to where I don't
think Dort is gonna be gone. I think I'm in
a trade because they picked up that option, right, So yeah,
I think it's sober, and I think it's topicch and
I think you figure it out with because if you
did just trade Jay Will, that does get you there,
right if you add if you add his salary to
Sorber and Top, oh.
Speaker 1: Add those, So you need to get rid of all
three of those.
Speaker 2: Guys that a billion guys on this roster still right,
like you're gonna, I mean to pull it up now, so.
Speaker 1: They're there, Oh, this is the I'm looking up. See,
I'm really trying to figure out the Nix's finances here.
I'm on the Knicks's page. So they are into the
second apron right now? By I seventeen million? That can't
be right? What am I missing here? Who would they
already get off the books? If I was seventeen million
into the into the second apron.
Speaker 2: And we established that Sober at about five and Topitch
at a little it gets like ten and a half.
So it's Jay Will who makes seven almost eight. J
Will would get you there.
Speaker 1: Wow, that's just so, And so what are you left with?
As big as you have Mara, Hartenstein and Chet and
I guess Kenrich Williams would count as an It's not.
Speaker 2: A crazy thing to say. Jada can be a room
protector if that's what you need. He's done that before, so.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and maybe it ruined his hamstrings.
Speaker 2: That yeah, I mean that's kind of the only way.
Speaker 1: By the way, I'm with you that I don't I
don't think it should be lou Dort. I just looked
at the Kenrich Williams second deal, like I assume, okay,
maybe he'll come back on the minimum, but five million
bucks made me think, oh, perhaps there is going to
be a loud door trade.
Speaker 2: So yeah, because they're at sixteen guys with Mara and
Sturtz and then I don't want to list the other fourteen,
but like guys you'd expect to be on the team.
So you get down to thirteen with losing Jwill, Sorber
and Topicch not that you have to do all this
you know today and then you need to.
Speaker 1: Do it right now. Would actually be pretty convenient since
we're talking already.
Speaker 2: I think so yeah, I think that's still probably the
way it happens. And then you just play a two
way guy or whatever, like you mess around with the
last last roster spot and a half.
Speaker 1: I wonder just what I so Joe and Wiggins when
you move them, and kind of they deserved a bigger
opportunity they would be a more prominent part of basically
every other team's in the league rotation. I wonder if
it's a Jay Will would be the one or Lou
Dort and I when I know when you're getting to
Jay Will, it's their third big whatever, that's the one
that starts to get into Okay, now the finances are
eating into what feels like the culture of the team
a little bit too. I just would wonder how.
Speaker 2: Players feel like he saw postseason like he was a
They turned to him several times.
Speaker 1: They thought they couldn't play ched at center against the
Spurs basically, so Jay Will got a ton of time there.
So I would just be curious. I would love to
have a candid conversation about like how the players feel
when it's it just it feels like it's easier to
say goodbye to a Joe or Wiggins based off Will.
They were just never gonna have the roles maybe they
want or deserve and then not to diminish the value
of sober or topic, but you don't know what they
are yet. They weren't integral parts of the team because
of injuries and uh testicular cancer for topic this past year.
So it's I'm not trying to say everyone's disposable, but
Jalen Williams, Jay Will or lou Dort going out to
be the one where it's okay, this is kind of
a culture test.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you're right about that, but I just
don't know what how else you're Do you agree.
Speaker 1: That they're gonna get out of the second apron at
some point, whether it's mid season or this offseason.
Speaker 2: I don't feel like you come this far without finishing,
you know, Like I don't if you're if you're gonna
move Wiggins and Joe.
Speaker 1: Save like two hundred million dollars in tax payments.
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, they've saved a lot of money, But like
you know, well, do you what do you think? I
I think I think you finished the job. I think
if you've. If you've, you may as well get the
full benefit, right.
Speaker 1: Of Yeah, I think they're going to. I was just
curious whether, like your stand I did the Kendrick Williams
change your Oh if they're maybe they just wanted to
lower their tax bill by a quarter of a billion
dollars and they're gonna call they're called to.
Speaker 2: I mean, actually, to be honest, I was surprised that
they brought well, and most of me was surprised that
Williams was brought back at all, just because.
Speaker 1: I was kind of hoping the Knicks we're gonna like
I would rather have him than Kavon Looney and.
Speaker 2: There there to your point is like, well, this guy
is way too important to our culture to just send away,
you know. Yeah, But but I and I would feel
that way about Jay will because he's always in the
postgame interview scrums, you know, and all that stuff, Like
he seems pretty important.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you also you get rid of him,
you are, but like there is no because Kendrick Williams
wasn't playing a ton last year that you've now decided Okay,
one of these younger bigs needs to be good.
Speaker 2: Yeah, which could happen, Like, you don't if you draft.
Speaker 1: Mary by the way, one of these younger bigs. If
Sowerber's gone as well, it's just mar I don't know
who I'm talking about.
Speaker 2: How shouldn't you expect to be able to get third
big minutes out of the number twelve pick right? Like?
I feel like I feel like that's a reasonable expectation.
Speaker 1: I'm sure the Warriors thought they'd get third big minutes
out of James Wise minute number two? And uh how
that pan Hounds.
Speaker 2: He I think I we shouldn't talk about James Wiseman.
Speaker 1: Is there any other.
Speaker 2: Blurb that maybe he was going to be back in
the league, which would be fun?
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm I wouldn't root against him.
Speaker 2: Nod is rooting against him? Sifly you have a personal
beef with James Wise?
Speaker 1: You anything else that you want, any questions you have?
I thought, but I thought the Pacers, the Kelly Bridge
and you're signing, I thought that was a good one
by them. Yep, I've been think that's solid. Oh there's
do you do we need to walk back? Yeah, I
mean we need to walk it back. We have an
apology issue. We were wrong about mutual options. They are
apparently legal, and we are sorry. Yep, I think that's
enough we in our defense. They're the word itself I
think does not appear in the CBA, but there's also
no rule specifically against it. I still think they're stupid.
It doesn't make sense to me.
Speaker 2: I think just the player option with a partial guarantee
kind of gets a better gets you what you want
out of that. But yeah, they they sort of exist.
And this term has been pulled from the ether to
describe a situation where both player and team would have
to opt in to pick up the option, and if
one or the other says no, thank you, then it
is not exercised.
Speaker 1: Is that the simplest way to put it? I just whatever, Yeah,
I is it? Who do you think it's better for?
Speaker 2: Uh?
Speaker 1: It's mutually beneficial. Dan by definition.
Speaker 2: Is who's it better for? I don't know, because it
takes both. What's the situation? So if the player plays
really well UH and does not want to pick the
option up, it benefits the player because he can go
get more money. And if a player plays really shitty,
he just loses money because the team does not pick
the option. Up and he's on. He's a free agent
after a bad year. So I wonder if maybe this
is something that we will not see used very much
because I don't see who it's. It's not like a
they both benefit. I guess it's it's like the least
committed commitment you can have.
Speaker 1: So what would this was? The thing says it's in
the title Ken this offseason? GA any crazy or what
would it take? Not non Lebron division. I still feel
like he's just stringing us along for a Golden State
or Cleveland signing. What what could? There are no wrong
answers here because of everything that we've deemed that so
many of these moves we just did not even see coming.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Uh. Jalen Duran takes the qualifying offer uh. And
then Jason Tatum becomes a very prolific twitch streamer, I
think because there's a void in the Boston market for
a twitch streamer.
Speaker 1: I was gonna ask, like, do the Celtics take calls
on Jason Tatum? There was the Chris Mannox reported I
think was Chris mann X that they've actually had to
turn down calls for Jason Tatum. But I understand other
teams looking at the Jaylen Brown trade and saying, well, yeah, yeah,
circle yeah. I think Niccoli okic. He can sign it
at any point before next year. But Niccolio is going
into next season without an extension would be a like
that would be wild to me.
Speaker 2: Yep, that be a bad one.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure if he listens to this podcast. My
guess is he would. But I'm sure you remember me,
like or you probably don't remember, like a month or
two ago, I advocated that he should absolutely not sign
an extension too.
Speaker 2: I do remember that. I do remember that Draymond just
leaves and it was all big trick, like he just
opted out because he wanted to play somewhere else. Yeah,
I don't know. This is the question is worth asking
because this has been pretty great so far from from
a transactional perspective.
Speaker 1: Do you remember last off season when Sham's reported in
advance of it that executives expected most craziest.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this has.
Speaker 1: Been the most craziest off season that I can remember,
And unlike the mutual option thing, still I still firmly
believe that most craziest is not the proper terminology.
Speaker 2: I'm never going to relent on that one.
Speaker 1: No, no, it's but it's now the only accepted terminology
around these parts in my homebore opinion. Oh my god,
what if Draymond goes to Cleveland with Lebron? Is that
a possibility? I mean, if you're will to take a
the minimum, anything's a possibility. Sham's wasn't wrong. He was
just early. No, he was wrong. He said it was
going to be less offseason. He was wrong. I'm excited.
And by the way, why so on the chat, I'm
excited about the Eastern Conference next season. It's I was
just going six teams that could probably talk themselves into
winning the title, right I think.
Speaker 2: It's more than that. Oh well, I was gonna say
winning coming out of the East, because let's just it,
it's New York, Boston, Philly, Toronto, Detroit and Cleveland. And
then you're in the Atlanta, Orlando, Charlotte teer, Miami, oh Man, Orlando,
and Miami's wrong, but it probably has the honest and
believes that it could come out of the East. Right now,
Miami or Orlando, we got like, who wins more games?
Speaker 1: Who's just who's more likely to come out the East
next season? I think it might be Orlando, We're likely
to come out of the East.
Speaker 2: Right now, Orlando, if Miami gets another body or two
in there for cheap, maybe I changed that, but like, yeah,
I mean you could basically go down the top ten
in the conference. Indiana, we didn't say Indiana, Indiana, My God,
get me right back in the mix. So basically everyone
but Washington, Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Chicago, and Charlotte eleven. Clearly, that's
eleven teams in Chicago was not going to be bad,
and I think Milwaukee might even be like thirty something wins.
Like there's I mean, the top eleven in the East
I think could all credibly believe themselves to be like
top four, and then I think at least nine or
eight or nine of those could say like where we
could win the conference. I think that's like it's it's
I cannot remember a season at this point looking like
having more potential conference winners than the East.
Speaker 1: For next year, it is going to be the best
possible blood bath.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, absolutely. This is like the when when the
league wants parody like this is like do we have two?
Like this is this is apex parody.
Speaker 1: Here's a question, do we get a ninth as of
right now, if he had a break, do we get
a ninth consecutive different champion. So can't be it can't
be the thunder Oh.
Speaker 2: No, because I think one of the last eight champions
is too likely to win it. Don't be scared. Just
just buckle up and enjoy it. The East is by
far the more interesting conference next year.
Speaker 1: I'm so I'm normally not this excited for next season
this early into the offseason. I'm entering the point whereas
I need a break, and I definitely need a break,
but I'm like, no, like I want, like, I'm so
excited to watch what happens in the East.
Speaker 2: Or early October. I think we're going to be like
bouncing off the walls because we was like what, who knows?
Speaker 1: I mean like we just asked what could happen? That
would be like what is something we just didn't even
think about because we could have said, well, what if
Denver trades Jamal Murray or Aaron Gordon. That's maybe there's
a surprise destination, but that would be within the realm
of possibility. It's now everything just feels like it's on
the table. It's like, what if Luca takes stock of
the Lakers off season and says wey, I see.
Speaker 2: A tail wagging behind you. One of the dogs is
on board.
Speaker 1: There were two of them in here before. They were like, oh, Luca,
dont just trade demand talk? Yeah? Way in Uh do
you have anything else that I didn't plan on going
for this long, but there was. There's too much happen
to Yeah.
Speaker 2: Thanks everybody for listening and for watching. Remember to rate, review,
and subscribe, Tell your friends, tell your enemies.
Speaker 1: Uh.
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the very early stages.
Speaker 1: Of attention before beta. I'm gonna have to look that up.
Speaker 2: I don't know the Greek alphabet well enough alpha, but
I think I've never heard of an alpha.
Speaker 1: Test, like to find R and D should we call it?
We're an R.
Speaker 2: We're in the R and D face. We're in the
R and D phase. We're looking.
Speaker 1: It's received grants, stamp of approval.
Speaker 2: It's very cool. It's very cool at all be excited
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in the YouTube and podcast description. As always, shouts to
Frank Milakina and apologies to Jared Allen