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your support. Oh I forgot mark myself safe from nuclear war.
There we go. Yes, because apparently the quote unquote experts
in foreign affairs diplomacy ron reading Donald Trump's mind, I
was assured that there was going to be a nuke
over the civilization of Persia. I was assured that this
was a thing that was very likely to happen and
probably actually definitely a war crime. And then it didn't happen.
And so that means Donald Trump's a chicken for not
dropping a nuke and erasing the Persian civilization. I think
I got that messaging correct. There. That was the timeline
of the quote expert class their social media posts all
day long, yesterday through the evening and now into today.
The thing that they were warning that Donald Trump was
going to do and he shouldn't do, and then he
didn't do it, and now he's a chicken because he
didn't do the thing they didn't want him to do.
Is that clear? Okay? Now you know the level of
expertise we are dealing with here. Unlike the experts, I
am not an expert, so just willing to watch and
wait and see what happens. Right. I will gather information
from various sources, and I will try to line them
all up to kind of get an idea of what's
going on, and then I will bring it to you
and then you can weigh these pieces of information and
try to figure out what's going on too. But here's
the thing, nobody really knows. Nobody really knows, right, even
people in the administration that are, you know, doing these
different things, they don't know everything that Iran is doing.
Iran doesn't know everything that we are doing. So there
is there are known unknowns. To quote Donald Rumsfeld, there
are things that we know we don't know, but then
there are also unknown unknowns, things that we don't know
we don't know. See very clear as clear as the
quote cease fire that was announced yesterday evening. Now let's
just let me pause here for a second on the
timeline of this. Remember Donald Trump put a deadline out
there eight pm Tuesday, and he said, We're going to
bomb your bridges and power plants. And before the deadline
even hit, Israel was taken out bridges, blowing up rail
lines and such. Okay, And so to the Iranians, they
hear Trump making these threats, and what did they do.
They sent a bunch of human shields, which actually is
a war crime. That is actually a war crime. They
sent them to, you know, stand around the power plants
to protect them, which is that's a tell. That's a
tell that they believed Trump might actually start bombing the
power plants and they were trusting that he wouldn't do
so if it meant all of these innocent people that
were standing around the power plants would also be killed. Right,
So they're counting on the United States to have a
certain morality in conducting the operation. Right. It's also a
tell in that they had not stacked human shields in
front of anything else but the power plants. That's when
they mobilized the human shields. That's a tell they know
the importance of keeping the power on for their regime. Right.
And as I went over yesterday the report out of
Iran that the President of Iran had this big argument
with the IRGC leadership saying that we're not going to
be able to recover, like economically, we are going to
be done. We have to you got to have revenue
coming in so you can rebuild after, you know, winning
the war as resoundingly as Iran has and I'm completely
being sarcastic there, they are not. They have not been
winning the war. For everybody that is like, oh my gosh,
everything proves that you know, Iran is resilient, Like Iran
is holding on, the regime is holding on, and they're
threatening the strait of hormones, which that was the point
of the cease fire announced yesterday. Trump said that if
you reopen the strait of horror moves, we will give
you a two week period where we won't rain Holy
hell down on your heads, right, we will. We will
stop the shooting and the bombing for two weeks if
you open the strait of hormones. So I have a
bias when it comes to communists and the Iranian regime,
and there Islamo Marxists. But I have a rule, which
is they lie. So I don't believe anything that comes
out of Iran really ever, I mean except their love
for the chanting of death to America. They do love
doing that. So I do believe that they that part
the death to America. In fact, what yesterday I think
it was in order to try to ward off the
UH the bombing of the power plants, they sent out
a tweet that said, when we say death to America,
we don't mean Americans, we mean the government, the policies.
I'm not kidding. This is what they tried. And this
is another tell. The only way they hold on is
if we lose the will, and so they are trying
to break the will of the American people to turn
the American people against the operation. It's the only way
that the regime can survive. So recognize the op. And
when you go on to social media, you are in
the informational battle space. Okay, and there are all sorts
of actors. You don't know their motives and such. But
if they are taking a position that somehow or another
America has lost, that recognize it for what it is.
That is a demoralization effort. It's to break the will
because that's the only that's what determines whether you win
or lose. Do you have the will to finish it?
This quote ceasefire was predicated on the opening of the
Strait of Hormuz. So Iran comes out and says, we're
going to allow ships through, but they're going to have
to pay a toll two million dollars. Then we're going
to split it with Oman or oh Man, depending on
how you want to pronounce that. Oh Man Oman is
right across the strait from Iran. Oman came out and said,
we're not charging any fees. We're not doing that. So
who to believe? Well, rule number one. Iran lies, so
they're lying about what the terms are of the ceasefire.
Their mosaic strategy where a decentralized command and control operations
basically made all of these little clusters of IRGC and
besiege militias, made them sort of autonomous around the country.
That was their strategy after the Twelve Day War because
they were like, oh my gosh, like what happens if
Israel comes back and does something like this again. We
need to be able to have our you know, people
out in the field fling a bunch of rockets at everybody.
So they sort of divested the power to make these
decisions down to more localized levels, and so they may
not have gotten the word yet that there's a ceasefire, okay,
so that's problematic to be sure. They've been flinging missiles still,
even though there's a quote ceasefire. UAE has been targeted
dozens of times over the last twenty four hour or
twelve hours, I guess it's been so there is that
component ships aren't really too thrilled. They don't really know
what's going on. So all the boats are still kind
of hanging out in the Persian Gulf. But if the
strait opens and they can get out, that's going to
free up a lot of this traffic. It's going to
get a lot of the boats out of the area,
which will be a good thing. And I don't me personally,
I don't expect this ceasefire, and I'm using air quotes
on that every time I say it. I don't believe
the ceasefire last two weeks because I'm not sure what
Iran is going to do. I'm not sure who's negotiating
I'm not sure what they've actually agreed to, because they
pushed out a statement that had like ten their ten
things that they claim are part of this agreement, and
the Trump Administration's like, no, that's not in there. None
of that stuff is in there. They've been editing what
they're publishing in English versus in Farsi, in their language,
telling their people different things than what they're publishing for
the Globe. See they lie, all right. If you're listening
to this show, you know I try to keep up
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Your subscription then not only helps my pods, but it
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more transparent. Let me jump over to the text line.
Clear some of these I'm trying to stay I'm trying
to be better about staying ahead of the of the
text line so this way doesn't like pile up and
I end up with like forty messages and then I
can't read them all. So I'm trying to do a
better job of that. So this from Eddie who says
Trump should have taken carg Island the first day of bombing.
It doesn't matter what Trump says, so long as the
strait is closed, there is no victory. I would urge Eddie,
urge you go back to the podcast that I did,
the show I did last week and we covered this.
Do you think the military can't open the straight of
woe moves if it wants to? I do. I think
our military, if they wish to do so, I have
little doubt that. How I think it's pretty clear, like
our military cape abilities are pretty amazing, so I think
we could probably open it. So the question then is
why aren't we? And we covered that question last week,
So go to the peakpod dot com and listen to
the podcast about that, because it has way more to
do than way more to do with with global maritime
shipping lanes and protection of safe passage and all of that.
There are way more things at play, and it goes
into the maritime policy. It goes to Trump's efforts when
he first got into office to try to build up
the Navy do a new Golden fleet of twenty to
twenty five massive choke point holders, basically these massive boats
that would be choke point protection. But he got blocked
by China, firms that do business with China, the European
Union people. Then you've got that whole ball of mess, right,
So there's a lot more going on about with the
Strait of Horror moves than like, oh my gosh, we
can't open it like we can. We've obviously decided not to.
We're not phasing and everybody all the experts are like,
I can't believe they didn't plan for this. Really like,
I do believe they have a plan for it. They've
had plans for it for decades since the tanker Wars.
I'm sure, and says, I truly believe that Iran is
absolutely at this point in time, and as for decades untrustworthy.
They have lied, they are not averse to lying, are
actually given explicit permission and instructions to lie to the
Infidel t Kia, Yeah, do not trust and verify. I
also one of the things I also believe, so just
as a heads up, so you know what I'm working
off of my assumptions, which is that I really do
think that we have eyes on basically everything over Iran
at this point. You know, like we've got the technology,
we got the satellites, we got drones, we have pilots,
we have all of this, you know, air power, air superiority,
and so I have no doubt we know exactly where
the key things are that we need to keep eyes on,
Jeff says, to demoralize us and break our will to
finish the job, Iran will rely on their allies and
the Democrats in the media, but I repeat myself. Yeah,
so recognize the demoralization, psyop psychological operation that is being
run on you. And there are people like there's one
here in the in the text message Matt tds Matt
as I call him, has a and I'm about to
block him because he doesn't contribute anything except vulgarities directed
towards Trump and so like there's really no point in
reading any of his comments. Like ever, I don't think
I've ever read anything from Matt on the air. I
may have at some point, but I don't think I
ever do. But this is illustrative of the point. See TDS, Matt.
This is all he says. He says Trump and hegseeth
just showed the world we are all bark and minimal bite,
so stupid. And then he attacks Trump and makes references
to his sexuality or whatever. It's like, so we got embarrassed.
Really if okay, So if we're all bark and minimal bite,
what is Iran? See this is just a denial of reality.
Like the what we did to Iran over the course
of five weeks has literally never been done before ever
in human history. Like, I think that's pretty amazing. Now,
Matt sees defeat. Matt hates Trump and so therefore this
is some sort of a defeat. He is rooting for defeat,
and he wants us to believe that we have been
defeated somehow. When you blow up what ninety percent of
their ballistic missile production capability, their drone fleets, you whack
dozens of their top leadership with pinpoint accuracy. You know
where these people are, and you just surgically go in
and boom boom, boom boom and take them all out
over the course of five weeks. And anybody that gets
elevated to the top post, they get taken out next.
You're telling me that's a defeat, that that's not okay.
So recognize the SCIA for what it is, don't. This
is from Gabby who says, I don't believe ceasefire will
last either. So maybe we can send LGBTQ and stock
and crocs on the ground over in Iran. Maybe they
can open up a dialogue. That would be an interesting
diplomatic effort. Kevin says, Matt sounds like a typical American
hating democrat. Yeah, Matt, does I believe he is. Kathy
says Pete aren't you amazed at how many people have
become experts at foreign policy and war tactics. Those same
people can't even point out on a map where Iran
is located. They think that TikTok is the place to
get factual information. Yeah. Well, I, on the other hand,
have become an Iran expert over the last five weeks
because I've been getting regular Twitter updates. So that's I've
got the degree. Well, it's on its way, it's in
the mail. In Iranian history and war tactics. You know,
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dot com. We have developments. We have developments. People, Okay. First,
approaching the APM deadline line night, about two hours beforehand,
hour and a half, Donald Trump posts up onto Truth's
social the following message based on conversations with Prime Minister
Shabbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Assim Munir of Pakistan and
wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force
being sent tonight to Iran and subject to the Islamic
Republic of Iran agreeing to complete immediate and safe opening
of the Strait of Hormuz. I agree to suspend the
bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.
This will be a double sided ceasefire, which I think
is just a ceasefire. The reason for doing so is
that we have already met and exceeded all military objectives
and are very far along with a definitive agreement concerning
long term peace with Iran and peace in the Middle East.
We received a ten point proposal from Iran and believe
it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost
all of the various points of past contention have been
agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a
two week period will allow the agreement to be finalized
and consummated. On behalf of the United States of America
as president and also representing the countries of the Middle East,
it is an honor to have this long term problem
close to resolution. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Then we start seeing all sorts of reports based on
sources this and that, anonymous sources and whatever, and then
even from the Iranian government itself pushing out messages that
Iran's ten points that they pushed like a week ago,
and which was like, none of those points are agreeable, right,
they start saying, well, these are the ten points. So
here is from the Iranian government, the Minister of Foreign
Affairs on behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran. I
express gratitude and appreciation for my dear brothers in Pakistan
for their effort, tireless efforts to end the war in
response to the brotherly request of Sharif in his tweet
and considering the request by the US foreign negotiations based
on its fifteen point proposal as well as announcement by
POTUS about acceptance of the general framework of Iran's ten
point proposal as a basis for negotiations, I hereby declare,
on behalf of Iran Supreme National Security Council, if attacks
against Iran are halted, our powerful armed forces will cease
their defensive operations for a period of two weeks. Safe
passage through the Straight of Hormuz will be possible via
coordination with Iran's armed forces and with due consideration of
technical limitations. And then the Iranian government pushes out a
statement in its own language where it says that the
ceasefire proposal includes acceptance of enrichment, that that part of
this deal is that the United States now accepts Iran's
uranium enrichment program. And I can assure you no, that
has always been the purpose here. Okay, So everybody is saying,
oh my gosh, he's completely caving the you know, Trump
always chickens out Taco Tuesday, and they were saying all
this stuff, and so this just now came down from
Trump's truth social account. Numerous agreements, lists and letters are
being sent out by people that have absolutely nothing to
do with the USA Iran negotiation. In many cases they
are total fraudsters Charlatan's and worse, they will be rapidly
as after our federal investigation is completed. So I'm thinking
he's talking about people inside the US government that are
leaking to media outlets. There is only one group of
meaningful points that are acceptable to the United States, and
we will be discussing them behind closed doors during these negotiations.
These are the points that are the basis on which
we agreed to a ceasefire. It is something that is
reasonable and can easily be dispensed with. It's very much
like fake new CNN last night headlining a quote source
that had no power or authority to write a letter
claiming great authority President Donald J. Trump. Right, So my understanding,
my read on this, and I'm, like I said, my
approach is to wait and watch and we'll see. Like
all things Trump this is he creates chaos, he applies
mac some pressure, does that to get leverage, and then
offers you a deal. That's been the mo for like
his entire adult life. Right, So this looks to be like, okay,
we're at the point now where we're saying to you,
here are the things that we want, and Iran has
agreed to discuss it. Which keep in mind, three days
ago they said they weren't even in negotiations, they weren't talking,
they refused to do any talking, and now they are talking.
There's also a report that China made a phone call
and told Iran, you need to do the ceasefire, and that,
of course is seen as weakness for Trump somehow that oh, well, yeah,
he had to get he had to get China to
get in there and help him out. Yeah, China's probably
looking out for their own self interest too. A you know,
a toppled regime in Iran that doesn't have any money
to rebuild with, that's probably not that's not in China's
built and road initiative interests. They get a lot of
oil from the Persian Gulf they've been scrambling. They would
let very much like to get that oil out. So
I don't care how you do it. I don't care
who's involved in getting around to the table. Get them
to the table, and I have no by the way,
I have no expectation that they're going to agree to
any of our terms. But we shall see. Here's a
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and make memories that'll last a lifetime. I did watch
the press conference that was held this morning by the
Secretary of War and the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and
I have the audio from that. I will play it
for you. It's important you hear the information, you know,
unfiltered as a tour. So since the ceasefire was announced,
the Iranian regime has fired ninety four drones and twenty
three missiles at Persian Gulf states, including Israel. They shot
a bunch at Israel. Immediately after they launched ballistic missiles
at Israel. They ordered the acceleration of political executions, and
they put in their Farsi language press release the uranium
enrichment language, which was omitted in their English language version.
So again, like, I don't believe that this ceasefire is
going to last very long. I'm not even sure if
it is a ceasefire. And that makes me wonder is
something else going on? Right? Have we seen this movie before,
right where everybody is talking about something, Oh my gosh,
this thing, this thing, this thing, and then all of
a sudden, this other thing. Right, the son of the
shaw Resa Palavi? Who is this sort of like the
idea among a lot of the Iranian dissident community, the diaspora,
the people who have fled Iran like the Shah. This
guy's name Resa Pallavi. This is their interim leader that
they want to see come in and take over but
then initiate the reforms and then basically act as a
caretaker and then all floaded to the people for a
vote and whatever right. He would just be a transitional
governing figure. That's what a lot of people that are,
you know, Iranian dissidents, that's who there their leader is.
He has now announced that he will address the Iranian nation.
This would be one thirty another half hour. Now. I
don't know if anybody in Iran's going to be able
to see it or hear it, but we have been
sneaking a bunch of starlinks into Iran. We tried to
sneak a bunch of weapons in but supposedly the kurd
stole them. They were supposed to hand them off, but
they kept him. Trump made a comment about that at
the White House, and you know he was ticked off
about that. Or maybe that's just what he is saying.
Maybe the weaponry did get in. Maybe a two week
ceasefire of air power is to give space to the
Iranian people that now is the time to revolt, because
you can't do that if we're bombing stuff all over
the place. But if you can get everybody to stop
shooting for a little bit, then maybe you guys can
maybe go and take out some of these Iranian Revolutionary
or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps groups that are scattered
all around the country, right because this was Iran's strategy,
the Mosaic strategy they call it. And so they have
all of these different groups and that's why they're flinging
missiles everywhere because there's no you know, top down command
control anymore. But what happens if you've got all of
these different groups operating independently, and you blow up the
bridges between them, cut you blow up the railways as well,
you have no comm system, maybe jam up all their comms.
That now is just a small force that Iranian people,
if armed sufficiently, can do battle with right instead of
mobilizing the entire army. And you know, all of the
guard corridal and all the besieging thugs, and you won't
be able to send the commands out. They're all going
to be dispersed and everything else. So I don't know.
I'm just saying this might be the opportunity for the
Iranian people. We shall see. Tablet Magazine's arm In Rosen
says if the ceasefire winds up happening, the bold Iranian
gambit to trade much of their senior leadership, most of
their navy, at least half their missile launchers, the lives
of thousands of security personnel, various bridges and rail lines,
steel and petrochemical plants, their deterrens, their nuclear infrastructure, their
air defenses, and the ability to use Dubai as a
sanctions evasion hub for the possibility of charging tolls for
merchant shipping on the straight of Hormuz. Well, that probably
would be a titanic failure for Iran. You trade all
of that stuff, this entire system that they had built
over almost fifty years, right to fund and develop their
war against the West, against Israel and America, and at
the end of the day you are left with a
million dollar toll through the Straight of horor moves. That's
what you get. That's what you're going to get. If
that's the best deal, that would be a failure for Iran.
But again we shalsee all right, that'll do it for
this episode. Thank you so much for listening. I could
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while I'm gone.