Speaker 1: Are the Welcome to Wayne to Talk today the gold
standard of sports betting shows where we talk to talk
and walk to the walk. Got a loaded show getting
you ready for a big, big weekend. We've got NBA,
we've got Super Bowl, we've got lacrosse, we've got all
around the world. Dan, come on in here. What do
we got for today's show that we're Super Bowl rushing?
Probably got a ton today?
Speaker 2: Yeah, Andy and Island the show yesterday we talked all
receiving props. We broke down, you know, six or seven
guys and what they're overs, unders are what you were
looking at. And we'll do something similar here. Not as
many options in the rushing game. But I have a
prop that I really like. I'm sure Andy has a couple.
But we'll pull up a screen and show you historical
data how these guys have been doing cash and so
getting you ready to bet props in the Super Bowl.
Andy and I are here for you. And then next
week we will be handicapping which performers will be wearing
dresses and things like that. But on today's show, Man,
the football Fridays are dwindling. This we're calling it a
football Friday because we're going to Teddy and Marco to
talk about the Super Bowl a week and a half
before the game even starts. But we're also going to
be obviously talking NBA College Basketball with those two guys.
They're gonna have free plays for you coming up. We're
gonna do sell me with Teddy. I picked a great
game for you guys to win some people some free
three day flex passes. But Teddy's also gonna be talking
Pistons Warriors. Marco is going to be coming on Michigan
and Michigan State in the battle for Teddy's home state.
There should be a fun one that Marco is going
to be breaking down. You've got all around the world.
Lacrosse kicks off this weekend. I've got free plays for
you in that Andy. It's a great time to be
subscribed here to wager Talk TV. And it is a
great time to celebrate Football Friday. Yeah, it's only two
left on the year and it's sad man.
Speaker 1: We got a milk it for all. It's worthier like
when you only got one right football game, and I
Football Friday is not that good when it's like XFL
and things like that. So let's bring in Teddy and
we're going to talk a little NBA. Then we're going
to talk to Teddy Bowl. Teddy, We're gonna talk Pistons Warriors.
But I want to ask you just some general thoughts here.
We talked about Giannis. Looks like he's probably not going
to be on the on the Bucks. Warriors are a
team that's being brought up. But I asked Joe NII
this yesterday. I love your thoughts. If you're an NBA team,
are you really that excited with unloading everything to get
Janis who's now dealing with another calf injury in his thirties,
this big contract? Are you excited about about trading for Yannis?
Speaker 3: No? You have you paid attention to the NBA for
the last forty years?
Speaker 4: Yes, I have what every once in a while, one
of these moves works and the team that acquires a
superstar goes on to win a title.
Speaker 3: It happens what once every X number of years. The
other ninety eight.
Speaker 4: Moves that get made, you know, don't tend to be
quite as a fortuitous for the team picking up the
veteran superstar. And of course, the costs for acquiring Giannis
right now, you know, I've heard some remarkably high costs
that it might take to bring them on board.
Speaker 3: I don't think that for any team.
Speaker 4: You pick up your honest you're like, oh yeah, we
got a title, now we're locked in. Would the Nicks
be better without Karl Anthony Towns with Giannis in that spot?
Maybe you know a little bit. But would they be
better without Towns and a newbie and too you know,
some first round picks down the road, of course not.
And the price to get you know, a superstar in
the NBA, in that the trade deadline is supposed to
a free agency is in my mind, usually too high
to make that trade.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm looking at these standings, like, what's the
theory for building a good team. We're going to talk
about the Troy. It almost feels like the Troy may
be the model. You got one pretty big contract with Cade,
one superstar and then just try and load up a good,
you know, surrounding cast. But I just feel like these
teams two massive contracts somebody like Giannis, it just doesn't
feel like it's feasible once it comes to playoff time.
Speaker 4: And of course the issue was so first of all,
De Troit hasn't won anything all right, So let's not
give the Pistons too much credit that they've had a
good first half of a season after being bottom feeders
for the better part of the last decade. So there's
hope for Detroit in a way that there hasn't been,
you know, since since Johnson Billis was playing, and Detroit
as opposed to getting thrown out of Portland for betting issues.
But when you talk about the the strategy and the
philosophies for winning a title, a lot of it has
to do with salary cap flexibility. And when you lock
in someone like Giannis that you have to pay as
they get older.
Speaker 3: In my mind, that reduces flexibility.
Speaker 4: And when you look around the league who's getting traded, everything's, oh,
this guy's an expiring contract.
Speaker 3: That guy's an expiring contract. You know, these are guys that.
Speaker 4: You know two and three and five years ago that
you wanted to pay twenty thirty and forty million dollars
a year. So the cost to acquire a Janis in
my mind, is and Giannis is a what right now?
He is a top ten NBA player, without a doubt,
he might be a top five NBA player. He is
that good, He is that capable, but one top player
doesn't win you a title. You know, when you need
a piece, and a high usage piece.
Speaker 3: Mid season.
Speaker 4: It's hard to get a guy like Yiannis to be
in full chemistry with your team, you know. And of course, oh,
by the way, he's hurt now. So even if you
get him to expect that your team with Yannis this
year to find the chemistry and click all through the playoffs,
you know, in my mind, that's rather optimistic.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess the strategy is somehow trade for SGA. Yeah,
Jack williams Lynn, Chad Holmgren.
Speaker 4: Well, the strategy is trade you'r Yannis like OKAC traded
their Paul George and Lo and behold, you know, look
what the what the cat can drag in a couple
of years down the road.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, Well, let's break down this Pistons Warriors game.
Two teams, like we just mentioned, kind of going in
opposite directions here, but let's focus on the game tonight. Here,
Pistons are going to be the big favorite. Kind of
makes sense, Warriors stand a chance here in this one.
Speaker 4: So I'm really curious because you're say they're going opposite directions,
What do you mean because I don't see that at all.
Speaker 1: Oh, I just I think the Warriors, with the injuries
that they have, they're a non factor in the playoffs. Meanwhile,
the Pistons are the number one seed and the East
I think is wide open. The Knicks seem to be floundering.
So if I'm picking one team that's going to have
a lot more success in the playoffs, to me, it's
the Pistons. That it's not even close, all right, So.
Speaker 3: The Knicks are going to be there. They'll be fine.
Speaker 4: It's January, you know, the NBA is a long season,
and the Knicks are going to be there. And really,
if you talk to me about the Eastern Conference finals,
the Pistons will be So we talked about, like, what's
the future of these two teams in the postseason. I
don't see Detroit as being a legit likely contender to come.
Speaker 3: Out of the East. They are the type of regular
season team that we love, all right. They're young, they're hungry,
they're focused.
Speaker 4: So you like in the regular season of the NBA,
when it comes to the postseason of the NBA, you like,
they've been there, They've done that. You know, in general,
not always okay, see obviously last year, when you have
that young talented corps like the thunder did, you can
make an exceptional run.
Speaker 3: But I don't.
Speaker 4: I mean, Detroit is not okay, see at least not
in this better's opinion, not yet. And of course it
is a Pistons team on the second of back to back.
So anytime we're talking about second of back to backs,
there's two things we check. One, what happened last night?
How many minutes got played? How hard were those minutes?
Two what's the team's track record without rest? Pistons have
a losing track record against the spread without rest. This season,
they've not been particularly good in this role. And last
night I have a no show game in Phoenix. Nothing
went right from the get go. They did not shoot
the ball well, they did not defend particularly well, you know,
low scoring affair for Detroit, and they were pretty much
blown off the court. But from a minute standpoint, you know,
Cunningham played thirty three, Duncan Robinson played thirty though, was
the only two guys that played major minutes, which leaves
the Pistons in fairly good shape tonight at Golden State
from a rest perspective, even though obviously their track record
in these games has.
Speaker 3: Not been great.
Speaker 4: The question that we have, and I'm saying we collectively
as the NBA betting marketplace has right now, is what
the heck do we do with Golden State? How good
are the Warriors? And as Andy Lang said coming in
to this discussion, these feel like two teams going in
the opp directions since Jimmy Butler got hurt. Golden State
two and three straight up, two and three against the spread,
and of course, you know, when you're beating Utah, it's
not really that much of an accomplishment. And they did
beat Minnesota when the tea we're in the midst of
a five game losing streak, so they do have two wins,
both of which you have.
Speaker 3: To go yeah, Okay.
Speaker 4: That said, Golden State has been far better at home
all year, and they have been on the road. Now
they're five games into the Butler injury, and it's not
like they lack depth. The Warriors have some quality depth.
And note the fact, again looking at my odds logic
live on screen right now, it's not Detroit as a
road chalk. The markets are saying Golden State deserves to
be the favorite here minus two and a half pretty
much across the board. Total two twenty four and a
half pretty much across the board, And of course, my
powering number for the game with Detroit on the second
of back to backs says, in theory, the Pistons are
supposed to be favored here, and the markets kind of
feel that way.
Speaker 3: The markets kind of have been sniffing that way.
Speaker 4: So when you see a two and a half holding
and yet a lot of people are saying, yeah, well
the other team should be favored here, that'll tells us
something to be said for Golden State's home court edge
tonight against the tire Detroit team that honestly, I think
they have overachieved at least a little bit over the
first half of the season. I'm not Gonnavince, You're going
to make as much money with Detroit over the back
half as you did over the first half. Now the
markets have caught up to where they are, so the
lean here's Golden State minus the two and a half.
I understand that the Pistons are a tough team, and
step in front of Golden State is the way I
would look for this one. And of course, at minus
two and a half in this point spread range, I
tend to look at money lines when you're talking about
short NBA favorites. But that's for me. One like the
two point spreads in particular, where the money line is
perfect minus one and a half minus two. Once you
get up to two and a half in the NBA,
now it's a pretty big price to be laying. So
lean here's golden state. If it goes down, if I
see a one and a half two, maybe look at
the warriors of the money line at some point before tip.
Speaker 1: Off moving on to the super Bowl, I'm assuming you
go down and do the whole props thing. The props
are released, How was it? I've never been. That's got
to be I have to make it out like it's
so silly that I that I don't come out there.
So how was it? How was the bob here? So
that's ridiculous.
Speaker 4: Fifty fifty four page packet, fifty three page pack I
mean this thing, you know, I mean, it's it's significant,
and of course it's not just like, oh, a little
bit on it. There's two columns on each page top
to bottom. You know, there's a lot of problem to
go through, and what do you do at the end
of it? You end up with a page of notes
like this.
Speaker 3: Went for me.
Speaker 4: In the next hopefully twenty four to forty eight hours,
that will get translated into a bunch of bets and
a bunch of plays for the clients as the proper
coort comes out. I'm hoping to get that done over
the course of the next forty eight hours. Let's say
some point this weekend, I want to turn this page
into a bunch of bets. And after I make the bets,
then to make sure that we get the clients, the
clients get the same thing that I'm betting myself. So
I mean the super Bowl for me, I mean I
do it every year, been doing it every year for
twenty years. It's one of mine. I'm not someone that
telles props every week. I'm not, But super Bowl's different
because there's so much public money involved. You can really
find some good opportunities and it's one of my favorite
times of the year when it comes to Super Bowl props.
So and to the bucket list stuff. Everyone talks about,
what where do you want to be in Vegas? Look, the
March Madness opening weekend is funner, all right, and it
lasts longer.
Speaker 3: So if you have too. What do you want?
Speaker 4: Do you want march madness? So you want to come
for the opening night of the props, you probably want
march madness. That said, there's nothing like it when it
comes to a wise guy party in town.
Speaker 3: You know, I go.
Speaker 4: I've been almost every year, and a handful of years
I haven't been down there. But now, of course it's
Wednesday instead of Thursdays.
Speaker 3: It was a little bit earlier than it has been.
Speaker 4: And you've never seen if you've never seen like a
wise guy party. A bunch of guys with these fat bankrolls.
We're in sweatsuits, going up in line and again and
again and muttering amongst each other. It really is a
it's a sight. It's an interesting scene, it really is.
And of course there's lots of guys that I know.
So for me, it's fun because you know, in this business,
you know, you spend a lot of time by yourself,
You spend a lot of time in handicapping by yourself.
Getting out and about and talking with your friends that
you get to see, you know, a couple of times
a season is always a good thing.
Speaker 3: So I had a great time down there. I go.
Speaker 4: I'll like said, almost every year, and I was there
from you know, like six o'clock till eleven.
Speaker 3: I went.
Speaker 4: They stayed after because I was talking with Someboddy so
And of course when you're talking with people, you're picking
their brains, they're picking your brains. It's you know, I
don't mind sharing ideas with friends and colleagues that I respect,
and as long as they share with me, I'm happy
to share back with that.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I'm the formula one has become not a
not a must go to in Vegas. I thought it
was going to boy, I was excited and then whoopsie,
well give us your super Bowl preview here. It looks
like the line is kind of holding steady at four
four and a half year for Seattle. Yeah, Floorier's total
forty five and a half side total props. What's your
take so far?
Speaker 3: Uh? Just break that super Bowl twenty minutes go.
Speaker 4: So there, there's one lesson that I learned the hard
way about Super Bowls, and at this stage it makes
this game a one way game for me. The lesson
I learned the hard way about super Bowls is you
can't lay freaking point. Doesn't matter how much better one
team is supposed to be in the other team, all right,
doesn't matter how much better a team was in the
regular season, doesn't matter how much a team was better
in the playoffs, doesn't.
Speaker 3: Matter how big you're powering.
Speaker 4: Differential is between these two teams once they get on
that stage. In the modern era, teams are basically even.
When you look at the track record of favorites in
the Super Bowl, it's ugly, all right, four and fourteen
the last eighteen meetings, last eighteen Super Bowl, there's one
pick them in there. Six and eighteen the last twenty
five six times the favorite that's covered.
Speaker 3: And when we.
Speaker 4: Talk about the favorites that have covered, well you have
New England twenty eight to three. Yeah, they covered that game.
Seahawk Steelers, remember that game. I remember that game. Everyone
in the world was whining about how the worst referee
game in the history of Super Bowls.
Speaker 3: Well, that's one with favorite covered, you know.
Speaker 4: I mean, that's what it takes for the chalk to
be covering in these games. So for me, from a
side standpoint, I don't care how good Seattle was. I
don't care how all the flaws of New England have.
When February rolls around, these teams are even, and I
can only take points. Look at the track record of
teams laying more than a field goal. All right, I
talked about six and eighteen ats for any favorites. Now
you look at the checker, the team's laying a you know, four,
four and a half and plus. There's been eleven tries
this centery. Those teams laying more than a field goal,
they're five and six, straight up, straight up, one in
ten against the spread. Does history matter? How much does
history play into this? Well, that's the question. Look, Seattle's
a better team, you know they are. I They've probably
on both sides of the football. From a statistical standpoint,
the Seahawks are remarkable in that sense, you know, really
strong statistical profile. And New England's tiscal profile, while strong,
is certainly affected by the fact that no team in
the league played a weaker schedule than the Patriots, and
people still remember that. And of course, when you talk
about New England's road to the Super Bowl, fortuitous, fortuitous, fortuitous.
You know, two warm weather teams coming to playing cold
weather games. Denver's missing field goals, Denvers without their starting QB.
I mean, you know, obviously the Patriots are here, not
necessarily because they're one of the two best teams in
the league because everything, but because everything is broken right
for them, and the markets are telling us that that said,
you know, can't do it. Andy, I've learned this is
you know, some lessons you learn and you have to
learn again, and you have to learn again super Bowl
saying Oh, this team's definitely way better than that team.
Speaker 3: There's a lesson I'd learned a couple of times.
Speaker 4: But I have learned that lesson and I will not
you know, my choice sidewise, here is New England or past.
There's not a chance. I don't care stats, I don't
care matchups, I don't care anything.
Speaker 3: Not a chance that la plane Patriots or will be about.
Speaker 1: Your public service announcement. You don't have to bet on
the spread in this game. You don't know if you
don't have there's not a law that says you have to. Yeah, Teddy,
what do you have up for everyone at wager talk?
It's a big, big weekend and then we gotta do
sell me.
Speaker 4: Sure, So I'm running good right now, guys. It's been
a great week. I'm on an eight and o NBA
run over the last eight plays and tonight real simple
five percent, big ticket, locked and loaded a top total.
Speaker 3: The totals have been great.
Speaker 4: I'm hitting eighty percent on NBA totals this year so
far in twenty twenty six. Red hot right now, and
of course a long term track or a short and
long term tracker for the NBA five percent pick tickets.
Speaker 3: They're impressive. You know.
Speaker 4: I'm thirty seven and eighteen since twenty twenty two, sixty
seven percent. So when I bet, when I there's not
a ton of them, I don't have a ton of
a five percent place. I certainly have a ton of
NBA five percent plays. This is my third one of
the year. I got one tonight. Check it out WT
Dot buzz backslash TC. But again, don't buy the play,
get a package, get the what buy a seven day
all access for the price of three dude. I mean
it's it's as good a deal as you can find.
Sixty nine bucks every play, every day, every sport for
the next seven days.
Speaker 3: I encourage you. Check that out right.
Speaker 4: Now on my home paget buzz backslash t C.
Speaker 1: Ted Teddy with a five NBA play. Don't you threaten
me with a.
Speaker 2: Good time yes, sir, yes, sir.
Speaker 3: Three this year so far two and.
Speaker 2: On wow, let's go, well, let's make it three and
oh you can get that play at Teddy's page right
now WT buzz backslash TC again as I scan the
board here for sell me. Which is your chance, folks?
If you comment below after the video goes live, We're
going to tell you how you can win a free
three day flex pass for any of these great guests.
Marco coming up next to Teddy right here, and Andy
as well. You could do one day of each of
them with the flex pass. He'll win. What's up, Teddy?
Speaker 3: So I want to respond the comments.
Speaker 4: You're saying Teddy's pickings based on historical results more than
this season, thank you? Aw be four Rex for fun
is saying that doesn't apply this time around. One team
is fifteen rookies on the roster, another team emerge from
the best division football.
Speaker 3: I want to address that real quick, poor please all right.
Speaker 4: In my mind, based on my experience, the historical results
are more important than any that happened this year. When
you look at the track record of this game with
two weeks of hype, with two teams that get a
chance to breathe, and then have to play again. The
fact that one team has fifteen rookies the other team
was the best team in the best division doesn't matter
in February. Occasionally it does, but more often than not,
it doesn't. So, yeah, that's my thought process on this.
I appreciate the comments and I don't mind the criticism.
It's okay, But I want to explain exactly what my
thought process is. It's not, oh, there's some trend this summer,
random trend. This is twenty eight super bowls in Vegas.
This is what works, this is what doesn't. That's my take.
Speaker 2: Well, and Teddy, I'll even go one further. You know,
fifteen rookies fifteen veterans, like, that's something that I don't
care about. And you know, yes, in the Super Bowl, Okay,
it's fun talking points. We have two weeks to talk
about this game, so it gets analyzed and over analyzed.
But something for me is I don't give a shit
about the names on the back of the jersey. I'm
talking what do these numbers mean to me? And you
know historical trends, you know, you hear it in financial
advisors as well. It's no, it's no Darren Torrr of
future success. But you know, it's definitely something that you
have to factor in there. So I think that's just,
you know, maybe a little bit of difference between the
people who are watching these type of shows to formulate
their super opinions verse watching First Take and those type
of shows to formulate your ear type of opinions. There's
there's big difference there. But guys, sell me time. I
mean this. I look forward to this every single week
because I get to stand the board and try and
find ugly matchups, fun matchups. I have a feeling though
this matchup, gentlemen, will not be Teddy's five percent play
this evening that you can get at wt Dot Buzz
Backslash TC. I picked this one because of the similar logos,
and I liked how it looked on my screen here
when I have clippers and nuggets and the spread in
this one, guys, it's painted clippers six and a half
is what we're looking at pretty much. So Andy, I'm
going to give you the here with the Denver Nuggets
simply because the dogs have been very good to you.
During this segment, Teddy, you're gonna be letting me know
why you should be laying six and a half, and Teddy,
I was nice at least this week. I didn't make
you break down a thirteen and a half point favorite,
just a six and a half point favorite. So Teddy,
why are the Clippers rightfully so six and a half?
And people should comment Teddy with their wager talk username
to win a free three day flex pats.
Speaker 4: So when we talk about the LA Clippers, all right,
even now, after all this time, they're still not necessarily
being priced like the teams they've been for the last
two months. Remember this team started six and twenty one,
and since their six and twenty one start, they've lost
three games three and all three games have been blowouts.
By the way, when they lose, they get clobbered. Other
than that, it's a CLIPS team that has found a
way to and I found a way. He's not even
the right word. It's a CLIPS team playing good ball,
Clips playing we can win the West, we can compete
with OKC type of basketball. And again we look at
the odds Logic Live Odds screen right now and seeing
a very reasonable price six and a half for LA
in Denver. Of course, let's not forget it's a Nuggets
team and well, of course we know about the Denver injuries,
but what we haven't talked about a lot is the
fact that Denver has been kind of up against uscause
you know, the back to back barmbers at Detroit they
had Brooklyn. So the last two games, last three games
really have all come down to one possession at the end.
They Milwaukee, Detroit, and Brooklyn came up short in only
one of those three contests. But it's certainly a Nuggets
team that, as shorthanded as they are, there are matchup
problems here. They don't have a stopper for Kawhi, you
don't have a stopper for Harden, you know, the low
post presence that you need, especially with Valentuna's question.
Speaker 3: Mark for this ball game.
Speaker 4: So if I'm playing, I'm laying, you know, ride the
hot fade the mediocre. Right now, Denver's a little bit
of mediocre.
Speaker 2: Fade the mediocre playing he is laying, says Teddy Covers
in the first part of sell Me and Lino pointing out,
I am getting a little bit soft. It into my
head I should have went Brooklyn, Utah. But those the
logos being perfect matches Andy. It was just it was
just too beautiful for me. So your turn to sell
me on this Denver Nuggets side. And folks were great
in this one at six and a half. So you're
getting the points. Andy, you won't be laying. If you
will be playing, you will be taking at least that's
what I've decided for you.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this has just been a blessing for the Nuggets.
They're missing some of their guys, but they're getting some
of their younger guys and bench guys plenty of minutes.
And this is a team that's six and four ats
in their last ten games. Yea, they're coming off of
a win last night back to back, a gritty win
against the feisty Brooklyn Nets. Clipper on a nice winning streak,
but I don't know a couple of those wins against Brooklyn,
couple against Washington. There's a Utah win in there, and honestly,
I think this might potentially be a look ahead spot
for the Clippers, who are at Denver on Friday. But
then they got a nice matchup at Phoenix and Denver
has the element of surprise here. Christian Brown still out,
Aaron Gordon still out, Jalen Pickett is getting big minutes
Peyton Watson has a chance to shine, Spencer Jones gets time,
and Bruce Brown is really really good coming off the bench.
I actually think these supporting players are playing much better
and this line is a little inflated due to the
guys that are out right now. These bench players and
these role players are getting plenty of minutes in experience.
I think Clippers win, don't cover, and they look ahead
to this big matchup against Phoenix.
Speaker 2: All Right, Andy, Well, Steve Kohler commenting below, why would
you not take Teddy's advice too? He is two and
zero on these five percent plays. He's got another one
going tonight. Andy's on a nice NBA run, So I
don't know if Steve could be onto something. But you
have to decide, commenters, and let us know six and
a half who's covering it, Clippers or Nuggets. Comment Andy
if you think the Nuggets are a live dog, and
comment and comment Teddy with your wager talk use your
name if you think the Clips are covering this six
and half. Teddy always a pleasure, my man. Good luck
tonight on that big play. Brother, I'll think, oh look
I can get brother.
Speaker 3: Thank you. Have a great day, guys, cheers.
Speaker 2: Sir Teddy covers wt dot buzzbackslash tc Teddy does cover.
I'm sure the clients are hoping tonight as well. So
that's a fun one.
Speaker 3: Andy. Let's see.
Speaker 2: Let's see comment below, folks. Your chance for a free
three day.
Speaker 1: Flex pass real quick? Rex. I think the last two
posts is greater. But the biggest thing here win Seattle
doesn't win by double digits. I will be back with
hat in hand. Rex, care to make things interesting? Should
we revisit after the Super Bowl?
Speaker 4: Uh?
Speaker 1: You said doubled, but the line is four and a half.
Let's meet in the middle six and a half. I'll
bet your three day pass for six and a half,
so they if they cover the six and a half,
you get a free three day pass coming your way.
If they don't cover that, you get to purchase a
three day flex pass. Rex. Do you agree to the terms?
Speaker 2: Yes, the turn and laid out Rex, let us know.
And this is the folks, This is the thing, folks.
We're always watching the live comments. So you throw down
a colt, We're all for it. Tell us that we're idiots,
tell us that you disagree. Maybe don't tell us for idiots,
but you can tell us that you disagree. Andy and
I are watching the comments and sometimes we'll go head
to head with you and win you some action as
long as you agree to hold up your.
Speaker 3: End of the bargain.
Speaker 2: But yeah, no, that's great stuff, Andy, and what I
love about this.
Speaker 1: Hold on, Hold on Dan again, Guys, wait till after
the show, then comment with Teddy or Andy and your
wager talk name. You're doing it in the live chat,
it's got to be in the comments after the show.
We need record of it in the comments section. So so, uh,
save those till the till the end. Okay, Dan, where
were you?
Speaker 4: Uh?
Speaker 2: No, I was just saying that that I always loved
when the Super Bowl rolls around because, like I I
by the end of the two weeks, dude, I don't
even want to bet side or total, like if you
didn't on the opener, it's just like it's been discussed. Uh,
you know, ad nauseum and I do have to address here,
says saying joining late Dan yesterday, No way Bologna scores
three nil. That is not what I said. Roll back
the tape. I've verbatim said that Bologna could hit the
over by themselves. I just don't think they'll get a
clean sheet. Never said no way. Bologna scores three, nail
I said that was not my projected score line. So
so Bologney bolooney, it happens.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, let's bring in Marco, let's let's bring
out the games, and then we're gonna finish with WTF LFG.
We're gonna finish with all around the world. We're gonna
finish with the Russian props. Marco U. One of my
favorite things is you waiting in the back because you
always you're animating.
Speaker 2: I love it.
Speaker 1: It looks like you're just judging us and taking mental
notes and you'll get your right up at the end.
Speaker 5: Well, I do want to comment on one of the
things that you guys did, and Andy, I want to
agree with you, and you know, and I respect the
hell out of Teddy, but I totally disagree with him
on his take on the Pistons as far as not
being a playoff factor.
Speaker 6: The NBA is a creature of habit, okay, And what
you see is, yeah, he said that you know, teams
don't you know, just get into the playoffs and make
that run.
Speaker 2: They don't.
Speaker 6: They have to pay their dues the year before. And
if you look at Oklahoma City two years ago, what
did they do. They got into the playoffs, They battled
in a six game series, played tight games, but ended
up losing. Then they came back the next year off
of the experience they got the year before. What did
the Pistons do last year? They took the New York
Knicks to the limit. They went a six game series,
but if you remember, every one of those games were
crazy games. There were a couple that were big leads blown,
but yet it came down to the end of the game.
That was their paying their dues, their learning curve, whatever
you want. I think the Pistons are a big factor
in the East this year. Can they win an NBA Championship?
I'm not saying that, but I think the experience they
got from last year's playoff appearance is going to serve
them well this year.
Speaker 1: I like this Pistons team. I think in this day
and age, they got the recipe. It's very like the
vision I have in my head as I was looking
at the Pacers last year, and it's like, Okay, superstar
Halliburton with a big contract, then a Siakam playing great
on a little bit lesser contract and then role players
pitching in and doing their thing. And that's what I
see with Detroit. Like they got Caid, who's in who,
who's a superstar that we know, they can play defense,
their top three defensive team. They got Duncan Robinson who
can hit threes. Isaiah Stewart's but a just just incredible
player this season. I like him in the East. I'm
I'm with you, buddy, Yeah, yeah, absolutely so. All right,
well I'm not on an island with this one. So
let's go to a lot of Michigan talking. Let's go
to college basketball here. We're gonna go to Michigan teams,
Michigan and Michigan State. Yes they are sports being played
in other states, but we're gonna focus on this. Michigan
Michigan State is this Is this a big rivalry in
state college basketball at this point.
Speaker 6: It's always a rivalry between these two. But we know
that when it comes to Michigan and obviously in football,
Ohio State is the big rivalry. It's always a bigger
rivalry for Michigan State because Michigan State is always going
to be dean ed. As you know, the little brother not.
You know, they're not the real time any little brother,
but they're always generally taking second fiddle to uh Michigan,
so it means more for them.
Speaker 2: And boy, what a setup.
Speaker 6: You got one team that's coming in at nineteen and
one and the other one coming in at nineteen and two. Now,
the nineteen and one Michigan team, they've lost seven straight
to the spread. And I'm gonna be honest with you guys,
when I broke this game down, and you know, I
start and I look at one side, then I look
at the other side, and then I you know, for
my opinion, my initial reaction had me on one side,
and then the more I looked at it, I swung
over to the other side. And I'm gonna start with it.
You know, I'm looking at Michigan and yeah they're nineteen
and one, but they've lost seven straight to the spread.
But they've been a huge favorite in all of those games. Okay,
until the last one. Now they were smaller favorite, but
still a sizable favorite. They were playing Nebraska, who hadn't
lost the game, and yet they were still a big favorite.
Now they're finally in a spot where the spread's not
gonna be a factor. Okay, you just got to win
the game. Now, Michigan State. Why my initial reaction was
to look at Michigan State is I absolutely love Tom Izzo. Okay,
this is a guy that doesn't worry about what his
record might be coming out of you know, the month
of December. He schedules teams every year. He gets his
team to play tough games early because it always makes
them a better team in conference play and when you
get to March Madness and you know, look at what
you know he did Michigan State in November and December
this year. Their first nine games, they had games against Arkansas, Kentucky,
North Carolina, and Duke. That's a murderer's row. And you
got Kentucky, North Carolina and Duke. You know, blue bed
blue bloods of college basketball. I mean, he doesn't shy
away from anything. It does make his teams tougher. So
looking at Michigan and all, you know, the wins and
no covers, I'm saying, you know what, I'm gonna land
on Michigan State here, But when you actually look at it,
and then I went back and looked at stats and
going back to last year, this Michigan team when they
play a game on the road and the line is
between the threes plus three to minus three, so you're
talking about a coin flip game. They're ten and one
against the spread. In those games, they get the job done.
I'm gonna go ahead and go with them, even though
Michigan State, you know, has the pedigree to get this
game won, and they're coming off a scare in their
last game. Obviously they were looking ahead to this game.
But I'm going to ride the high of Michigan getting
through that Nebraska game.
Speaker 2: That was a big game.
Speaker 6: They got the win, they found a way to win it,
and they're gonna take the momentum out on the road.
Both teams play tenacious defense. Should be a fun game
to watch on a Friday night. But I'm gonna go
ahead and take Michigan in this one.
Speaker 1: All Right, we almost had a tenacious D reference there, Dan, I.
Speaker 2: Would have loved it. You know, I was ready. I
was ready. I was hoping for it. I was hoping
for it.
Speaker 1: Marco, what's your take on the Super Bowl? We heard
Teddy's historical you know things. Hey, you know, favorites just
not the way to go historically. Then we have some
comments I go. You got to throw all those out
the window and just look at this year right now,
it's minus four and a half total forty five and
a half. You're looking at props, you're looking at side,
you're looking at total. What intrigues you about this game?
Speaker 6: Well, my first take, I'm gonna give you, guys here
on the show, we can advance the man to give
you a first a total of first half wager and
I'll explain why. But talking about the historical stuff with
Teddy and yeah, you know, the recency bias has been,
the dogs have been, you know, the way to look.
But when I talk about historical stuff and I look
at things, one thing I remember, guys, and this game
does remind me a lot of it. Now, I'm not
saying that's where I'm gonna land, but I'm saying, as
soon as I saw this game, soon as I saw
the line, it reminded me of a different super Bowl.
And it was a super Bowl that you know, and
I don't even remember what year it was now, but
it was way back there. Dan Marino goes to the
Super Bowl in his second year in the NFL, plays
the San Francisco forty nine ers and absolutely gets annihilated.
I was on the forty nine ers in that game
personally that it was at the time and still is
one of the biggest wagers I've ever made on a
Super Bowl And it was because that second year quarterback
going Now a little bit different with the forty nine ers,
because we know the forty nine ers, you know, had
their stretch of the dynasty in that offense was prolific,
you know, and you're you're dealing with you know, you
had on those teams, you had Montana and Steve Young,
you know, quarterbacks that were tested. Here you've got two
quarterbacks that have never been to the Super Bowl. You
you know, got one that's you know, definitely a veteran.
But boy, you want to talk about a veteran that's
carrying a lot of baggage with him, you know, did
he finally get rid of all those ghosts?
Speaker 2: Probably? Uh?
Speaker 6: And I'm happy for him. What a story it's been
for Sam Darnold. He's the winningest quarterback in the NFL
the last two seasons, but the only thing people wanted
to talk about was the last two games of last season,
and he had to carry that all season long. And
here he is in a super Bowl. So kudos to
him and Drake may Hey, what a year he's had,
you know, probably the MVP or runner up, which way
they voted. Great year for him, But can he deliver
in the Super Bowl. And That's where I'm going to
segue into why I'm looking at the play I'm looking
at for the first half. Wager starts to Super Bowls
are usually slow, and the reason for that is nobody
wants to make that first mistake. Okay, It's almost like
I like to refer to it whenever you get a
big heavyweight boxing match. Okay, the guys don't come out,
just fire and you know, throwing haymakers right in the
first round. You know, they're throwing those jabs, they're filling
each other out. That's what you get in the Super Bowl.
And I think more so than ever this year because
of the two quarterbacks that are in it. You've got
you know, Drake made, like I said, a second year quarterback.
And remember he's a second year quarterback, but he didn't
start all of the games last year. They brought him
in you know during the season when things you know,
were going bad for New England. They finally made the switch.
So you know, this is a guy with not a
lot of experience, but it's played well. I'm not taking
anything away from them. And then you've got you know,
Sam Darnold that still has that mystique of seeing ghosts
and so far, and they're gonna be conservative with him.
We know the history also of the Super Bowls. How
you know one of the player or one of the
props that's always very popular every year is will there
be a score in the first six minutes and thirty
seconds And the no has been you know, the side
that gets the money the majority of the time on
that particular prop. Just for what I just said, then
throw in we've got two good defenses. You're looking at Seattle,
who's the number one team defensively in points allowed, New
England's number five, yards per play allowed, Seattle's number two,
New England's number seven, yards per rushing attempt. You've got
Seattle defensively number one, New England number ten. And add
in yards per past play attempt, you've got Seattle number
three in New England number four. So all of that
tells me I'm gonna be looking at a lower scoring
first half. And when you look at New England, and
I know everybody's talked about their schedule, and at this
time of the year, we don't care about you know,
who you beat, you're here, okay, So apparently you beat
some teams at the end that were pretty good. But
you know, the first half the scorers in the three
games that New England played. The Charger game, it was
six to three at halftime, the New England Houston game
they got to thirty one. It was twenty one to ten,
but there was a pick six in that game in
the second quarter, and CJ. Stroud kept setting them up
on short fields. Five turnovers in that game. Horrible game
by c. J.
Speaker 2: Stroud.
Speaker 6: And then last week at halftime it was seven to seven.
And remember the weather was good for most of the
first half, so don't throw The weather was a factor
in that one. So I'm gonna give you under in
the first half for my play, my early play for
the Super Bowl under first half wager.
Speaker 1: All right, Marco going under the total in the first half.
Nice work work, go guys.
Speaker 6: An interesting thing on the money line when you're talking,
I know Teddy talked about the money line in the
Super Bowl. If you shop around in Vegas right now,
you're gonna see that money line is all over the place.
You're gonna see it as low as Seattle minus two
twenty and as high as Seattle minus to forty two
sirca is the lowest in town on the money line.
If if you want to bet Seattle on A couple
of reasons it started out with them is they're on
the hook for a three hundred and ten k payout
on a one hundred dollars wager they have. They call
them super Bowl exact as, and you could have played
these way back when, and you have to pick the
exact two teams to get to the Super Bowl and
the winner of that said Super Bowl, and somebody has
New England beating Seattle in the Super Bowl. They put
one hundred dollars wager in. That's a three hundred and
ten thousand dollars payoff. That's a pretty nifty score for
somebody if they get it. I hope to god they're
doing some edging.
Speaker 2: On that bet.
Speaker 6: But that's one of the reasons why they started out lower.
And then they also took a one point one million
dollar bet on New England at plus one eighty eight,
which will bring back two point one so different houses
are going to end up having different numbers trying to
entice money for where they need help at and Circa
is definitely going to need some Seattle money come their way.
So if you want to bet the Seattle money line,
that's the place to look at it. And Andy, I
know you're familiar with this with big heavyweight fights. The
Super Bowl money line propositions generally create value on the
favorite because people treat the game that are newbies come
to Vegas when you have a lot of them come
for Super Bowl Week, they want to bet the game.
And when they go to the window and they go,
what can I win for one hundred dollars?
Speaker 2: You know?
Speaker 6: When I like bet and they find out, you know,
they bet one hundred and ten and they can only
win one hundred, They're not really thrilled about that. They
want to make more money, so they take the money
line dog. It's the same way as they do with boxing.
They'll take the dog, They'll bet the dog, and then
you always see the sharp betters come in right before
a fight goes off and grab that reduced favorite at
a better money line price.
Speaker 1: Wow, some one hundred dollars to win three hundred grand
must be nice out there. Wow. I mean that's a yeah.
I mean you go lay one hundred and fifty grand
on the other side, or so you do something to
guarantee yourself a six figure payout, that's a I mean
let it ride or superhedge. It's a superhedge. It's not
even it destrives me nuts to Marco like when you
when you have a big future ticket like that, you
have you have a future ticket like that, my opinion,
not for the big win, but for hedging opportunity to
guarantee profit. That's why you take absolutely tickets like that.
It's you're not taking a hundred dollars to hope to
win for you take one hundred dollars to hope to
put yourself in this position to guarantee a six figure
pay I that just drive me.
Speaker 6: Dan those we have this conversation on bet on it
all the time, and I'm gonna I'm gonna answer the
same way. Every time you can lock in a profit,
you walk in a profit, You've got to take some
That's the whole thing. And I know a lot of
people say that you know why you're giving up value?
You know, when you've got a good number, you know,
and such, that's not it. I want to guarantee winners.
If we can guarantee profits, you want to guarantee Now
I'm not saying, you know, if you really have a
strong opinion on that side, yeah, sway it that way.
But make sure that you're not gonna lose money on this.
And in this case, he's only going to lose one
hundred dollars. I get that, but still, my god, that's what.
That's what.
Speaker 2: Even if you lose okay, just one hundred dollars, it
feels like you just lost you know, six figures, you
know what I mean, because because you can taste it,
and that's the thing that blows my mind. Mark, and
you're it all the time, you know, with talking heads
and things like that, of value this value that. Guess
what if that side that you're way over exposed on loses,
your value is this it's zero, It's not a it's zilch.
So the whole like I get it, Like it's fun
to be like, oh, you know, hedging is for gardeners,
but like, if you're in this to make money, and
you are in an advantageous position, you likely have the
bank role that allows you to then lock in a
profitable position, kick your feet up, play some Super Bowl
squares have fun otherwise than where you could potentially fumble
a bag of a six figure beat market. It just
it blows my mind.
Speaker 1: Man, wild Wild, All right, Marco, tell him what you
have a for wager talking, then see if you have
a sauce of the week.
Speaker 6: We have the sauce of the week. It's gonna be
another Marco rant.
Speaker 2: We'll get to that.
Speaker 6: The this week.
Speaker 2: Guys.
Speaker 6: We've got that still that seven days for the price
of three. Take advantage of it. Hey, guys, full disclosure.
I come on here every week. I tell you what
my five percent record is and how good we've been doing.
I lost one last night and it was a tough
one to swallow. We had Hawaii, they were plus two,
closed at two and a half. We had it at
plus two. They go to overtime and lose in overtime.
And you know what, you know, I love the comments.
It's sample size of one. That's all that matters. If
you bought yesterday. I lost, But you know some of
the comments. I love it when you guys charp on
social media and that and that I'm an idiot. And
so forth, that I had a dog go to overtime,
the game ended in a time. Okay, I don't think
I was that far off base, guys. You know, and
somebody goes, don't you know that Hawaii hasn't won in
caol ourvives since twenty eighteen? How many of those kids
are on this team? Could you please tell.
Speaker 2: Me that it's funny?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 6: Okay, so that's how we're handicapping. But yeah, I lost
a five percent last night.
Speaker 1: Guys.
Speaker 6: So we're forty one and twenty one the last two
years with five percent plays. I will take that every
single day of the week, but one game sample size,
we're zero to one last night. So that's how we're doing.
But I would tell you a good time to jump
on seven days for the price of three. And don't
forget Marco's Deli. I will be taping it immediately following
this and it will be released later today. We're gonna
have five plays on the Deli. The Delhi college basketball addition,
hitting sixty percent through three weeks of the Deli, so
be sure to check out five more college basketball winners
for Saturday, all for free. That'll be up on the
Wager Talk YouTube channel later today.
Speaker 1: All right, Marco, I'm in the mood for some wings.
What's awesome the mood?
Speaker 6: Well, you know, this has been a year, guys, where
we've seen more coaches go on fourth down than ever before. Okay,
because everybody, all the math geeks with their little cards
and charts and everything, the numbers tell us that we
should do it. And it absolutely drives me nuts. And
I'm gonna tell you what, And I'm gonna probably analienate,
you know, two fan bases. And I've already analienated enough
fan bases this year, so what's two more? But you
know what, if you're a fan base of the Rams
or the Broncos, you got what you deserve. Because Sean
McVay and Sean Payton both did idiotic decisions during this
game on fourth downs to cost both teams what I feel,
their opportunity to win the foot Let's start with Sean Payton.
You're up seven to nothing, it's fourth and one. I
get it. It's fourth and one. The metrics say that's
a high percentage, go for it. Okay, accept And this
is what drives me nuts. Nobody considers the metrics and
the numbers, guys, and This is where I have my
debate all the time with numbers. Guys that tell me
I'm an idiot for my style of handicapping, because I
look at situations and things that aren't factored into the
line in the numbers. You know where a team, you
know where they're at, who they played last, who they
play next, whatever, that's not factored into the line. Okay,
that fourth and one chart doesn't factor in the fact
that you're playing with a second string quarterback that is
making his first start in over two years, hasn't thrown
a meaningful pass.
Speaker 3: In over two years.
Speaker 6: You're at home, you have the optionpportunity to go up
ten to nothing, making it a two score game. Your
defense hadn't given up anything to that point, almost to
the midway point of the second quarter. Why in God's
name would you take a chance of giving the other
team momentum by having them stop you on fourth down.
Not to mention, the play that you called was an
idiotic play, slow developing play. You know you need a
quick developing play. You only need one yard and let's
throw in the last factor. You know what the weather
was gonna turn to put the points on the board.
You know when that weather comes in, it's gonna make
scoring tougher. Take the ten points, keep the momentum, and
play defense and force a second year quarterback to have
to come from behind on the road who had done
absolutely nothing. That's Sean Payton. Now let me get to
Sean McVay. Fourth and four with four point fifty nine
left in the game. It's fourth and four. I get it,
you're at the six yard line. I get it that
you're down four points. But if you kick the field
goal fourth and four, I don't care what chart you have.
That's not a high percentage play, and you're going against,
if not the best defense, the second best defense in
the NFL. You kick the field goal and make it
a one point game. There's still gonna be just under
five minutes left in the game. If you make a
stop and get the ball back, you only need a
field goal to win the game. Let's play worst case scenario.
If you give up a touchdown, what's it make the score?
You're gonna be down eight, You're still one possession game,
score a touchdown and a two point conversion and go
to overtime. Why would you not give your team the
best chance to win that game? Not only if you
cut it to one and then a field goal can
win it, but whenever you kick off to Seattle, now
Seattle's clinging to a one point lead, it's a lot
more pressure on the offense to deliver being up one
than being up four. So you two guys, you deserve
what you got. And it's poetic justice that all the
guys that went for fourth downs all year long wanna
be in, you know, the cool group. You are sitting
at home. Both teams lost that way. So I'm gonna
give you the sauce of the week, give you the
cool sauce. You get a mango have the narrow. Okay,
that's what you get this week. Okay, because you're gonna
never see this guy order and mango have the narrow,
all right, So enjoy it, guys.
Speaker 1: Enjoy it in the offseason. Thanks Marco, Thanks Marco, appreciate you, buddy.
Speaker 3: Good luck.
Speaker 2: I have a good one, guys, it's well done. Yeah,
that reminds me. I don't know if you're a Scrubs fan,
but there was a line where he was like, I'm
gonna goe you a scooter and he's like why, He's like,
because it's sure for Scooter Pie. He's like, what do
you mean it's He goes, I hate Scooter Pie. So
that's how you arrived at the Mango Hobbinieri. He goes,
I'm gonna call Mango Hobbiero.
Speaker 3: Why is that?
Speaker 2: Because I hate Mango.
Speaker 1: I hate Mango the h So last time I had wings,
I I dropped one on the floor. That was that's
the the pump.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, that's that's the that's the rams on the ground.
Speaker 1: All right, we got a lot to get to here.
To close out the show, Let's do w T F
l F G. And Dan's going to lacrosse and I
specifically asked him to do this because there's an angle
uh in here that Dan has no idea about. So
what's the lacrosse play? And and why why why are
we talking about this one?
Speaker 2: First things first, and you know the college across his back,
because on my phone, I'm currently watching a live stream
of an indoor lacrosse game. The game got named on
Thursday that it was getting moved indoors and then they
said no public's allowed, no media. So we actually have
someone at the game who is live streaming the game.
So that is the place that we start at but Andy,
let's get a win here. First lacrosse play of the
year for you guys. It's kicking off this weekend, and
we are taking a dog that I believe we got
a live dog. Boston University getting six points against Syracuse
shop around, this is five and a half. It's six
out there. I'm fine with with five and a half
because I think we got a live dog, But if
you can find the six, get it. This is the
first time these teams have ever played. Syracuse also is
going to have to kick off this season without one of,
if not their best player. Trey Deer was in a
car accident this off season, so he's likely going to
be out the entire season. The distractions that come with
that alone is the reason why we were looking to
fade Q's heading into the year. And this Boston team
just doesn't get blown out no matter who the competition is.
If you're going back to twenty twenty fours the last
two seasons, this team has never lost by more than
six goals in all but three games. So they're thirty
and three. If you gave them six points in every game,
you know, not worry about what the factor is. They
continue to cover even against top flight competition. And this
is also the first time that Syrahcuse is actually going
to open the season against good ranked opponent. Boston's currently
ranked sixteen. They typically play Vermont in Week one and
they always beat up on Vermont. Q. Yes, they should
be the favorite at home, but this is scrappy Terrier
team that year in and year out, gives teams fits.
It's gonna be q's first game without Deer. I expect
be you to keep this close, maybe even pull the upset.
We're taking six points with the Boston Terriers against these
the Syracuse Orange Handy.
Speaker 1: Okay, here's why this is an LFG. Could be the
second play in less than a year where we have
a fade the car accident theory.
Speaker 2: We love a fade the car accident theory as long
as everyone is okay obviously, yes.
Speaker 1: Yes, So Jared Gordon got hit by a car the
day before his fight and he decided to fight and
he got knocked out in the third round, easy cash.
So yes, first game of the season, we have a
car accident involved. It's faded the car accident. That's what
makes this an LFG.
Speaker 2: And let's get season I love it here and and
we'll tell people too. I know we got a lot
to get here, Andy, so I'll keep it short, but
we have it two other plays that will be loaded
for clients of Andy. That's a client play right there,
and we have two other lacrosse plays for this weekend.
Wt Dot Buzz, Backslash al great time to buy that
seven day all access. Three days is what you pay for.
You get seven and three lacrosse plays come in your
way to kick off the weekend on top of all
the great stuff you got. Andy.
Speaker 1: All right, let's do it. Let's do all around the
world and then we'll talk rushing props for the Super Bowl.
Gets ready for the weekend. Uh, I'm all right. So
let's see here. We're gonna start with UFC. Someone was
asking about a parlay piece. Here's one for you, Talison
to share a round one Ko Talison to Shara just
doesn't get out of the first round, whether he wins
or loses. He's had one loss. It was his last fight.
He got knocked out in thirty five seconds. This guy's
a beast and he's fighting this guy. Dan ty to
Ivasa TI two. Avasa is his fan favorite in Australia,
except he's lost like five or six in a row
like way past this prime. He doesn't take it serious.
It has showed up to way ends looking like it
didn't look great. Let's just look Talison to Cher's got
a big reach advantage, a big height advantage to sher
A will knock this man out in the first round.
You can put this one in your parlays. Here's a
client play at plus two sixty Zion Williamson double double.
You guys have heard me talk about Zion's rebounding. I
don't know what's going on with the Pelicans. They have
a new rebounding style. Zion and Sadik Bay are the
ones getting the rebounds. Zion has gone from averaging five
six rebounds and then in his last three games he
has eleven, ten and eleven. His rebound number is seven
and a half. No, no, no, we're gonna take the
double double him to get to ten rebounds and ten points.
He's he's gone over ten points and thirty one out
of thirty three games. So as all as he plays
the full minutes, he should get here. Grizzlies all banged up.
They're out Aldama, so they have limited guys in there.
Jared Jackson is gonna get big minutes. He's not a
good rebounder, so Zion plus two sixty two good to
pass up. And then Anthony Black over one and a
half made threes. We've bet on Anthony Black several times
this season and he's done pretty good. But he's on
fire from threes over in seven of his last eight games,
fifteen to five to the over his last twenty. What
I love is he's he's averaging six attempts per game.
Shooting percentage is a little spotty, but when you're getting
six attempts per game, we only need him to hit two.
We can catch that one. So to share around one
ko Zion double double, Anthony Black over one and a
half threes. That's your all around the world.
Speaker 2: Love it, Andy, Let's get it baby.
Speaker 1: All right? Uh now we're gonna go to the rushing props.
All right. Uh, there's one that jumps off the page
for me. Here, Dan, let me see if I can
make this a little bigger. I just don't see George
Hallani getting ten and a half rushing yards in a
Super Bowl lists.
Speaker 2: Where did that just be? Just because Sharbone is out
we're gonna say, oh, the backup is gonna get care Like,
do people not realize when sharbone has been out year
over year, which happens, you know, once or twice this season,
it's been the Kenneth Walker show. And flip it the
other way when when Walker is out, which has happened
several times as well, it's been the Sharbonay show. Halani,
we're really thinking this guy's gonna get enough attempts to Okay,
you could rip off a ten yard rush against the
Patriots rush defense. I don't get this one at all, Andy.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I will. I will gladly take Hallani to he
maybe comes in for a spell. But in order for
him to get over this one, I think it needs
be a blowout late in the in the fourth for
him to come in. And even then, I'm just not
sure you're gonna put your faith in George Hallani. So
I will take the the I will take the under
in that one. Other than that, anything jump out of you.
Speaker 2: So I alluded to it yesterday Andy, and and I
didn't fully give it out since we were talking receiving props,
but I was taking a look at Rashid Shihied to
have over five rush yards. This is currently minus one
p fifteen and this is a number that I think
comes next Sunday won't be as available. You'll probably be
looking more at like a six and a half or
a seven. The thing is is since he joined the
Seattle Seahawks, he's had at least wash one rush attempt
Andy in eight of their eleven games. And it's just
what attempts will this guy have? You and I talked
about it yesterday about you know, taking him for a
long ball and taping him volume, all all these other
things he has used in the rush game simply because
they want to give him an end round, get him
in space and just see what happens. They'll at least
try it once in the game. Sure, the Patriots maybe
ready for it, But in any game that he has
had two or more rush attempts Andy twenty or more
rush yards in both of those. So I just think
in the big game, it's the same reason why we
don't like Halani. It's like, go to the players that
got you here, and Shaheed since that trade has been
a big boon for this offense, and not only in
the downfield game. It's what he allowed us with the
ball in his hand, So five or more rush yards
minus one fifteen Rahid Shaheed A bet that I've already
played Andy, because I don't think the number is going
to be there.
Speaker 1: Oh okay, Sam Darnold rush attempts numbers tell you he's
gotten over Neil downs count and a half end of game.
Anytime it's under three, you kind of have my attention.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know even money.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I kind of like this one. So his
rushing yards are six and a half, I would just
go at the attempts get in.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you go. I think you go attempts
Andy Cuz let's say, you know, end of the first half,
even and they just want to get to the locker room.
He kneels the ball down. Boom, there's a rush attempt
right there. If Seattle is you know, everybody's betting this game,
like they already know how it's ended, and everyone's betting
Seattle and laying with Seattle. So if Seattle really is
gonna win by you know, ten points, win by margin,
figures that Sam Darnald is likely gonna get you know,
a Neil. And you add that on top of the
fact that he's a guy who I feel like wrongly
people think of of of Donald. Excuse me, I was
saying Stafford there, I meant Donald. Obviously they think of
Donald as this like statue esque quarterback, and he actually
has a little bit of movement to his game. He's
not just a pocket passer that I think people just
categorically label him as. So I like that one quite
a bit, and you're getting even money on it. If
you shop around over two and a half, I think
that'll be a bet for me come Sunday.
Speaker 1: All right. And then if you're a believer that they're
just gonna use Kenneth Walker in every facet, you could
go over one oh four and a half rushing plus receiving.
Kind of obliterated this number of the last three weeks.
It's a huge.
Speaker 2: Has But anytime it's triple digits, Andy, this is the
super Bowl. You have a million and one things you
can bet on. Why are you picking the guy to
go triple digit? And then you get injured on the
first drive and you're like, shit, I you know what
I mean. It's the same way as Yeah, I think
Jackson Smith a jig, but could be the MVP in
this game. I'll probably take the plus money bet on
him to do that. I'm not taking his over ninety
five and a half. I just when you start getting
too those numbers, Andy, that number is already assuming every
single thing goes right, you know what I mean, And
we know in sports a lot of times more things
will go wrong than go right. And you're playing a
defensive team one oh four and a half. Yeah, sure
you could cash it and brag your buddies he did.
It's not a smart bet in my opinion.
Speaker 1: So Rashid Chihed rushing plus receivings thirty one and a half.
Speaker 2: I hate that. I wish I wish you could go
Rashid Shaheed like uh the uh like. Maybe they'll have
some special teams props where it's adding his yardage as
well in punt returns. On some books and.
Speaker 1: The Super Bowl, you might be able to get it.
Speaker 2: And uh, things like prize picks, things like Underdog Sports.
They offer things like that on a weekly basis. So
I know it's going to be there for the Super Bowl.
But I would love to take a big chunk of
pie and say, let's call it sixty and a half
yards for any time. Rashi Raheid. She he touches the ball.
That's something that I would bet over on because he
might take it game.
Speaker 1: Oh see, I would, I would take the under. I
don't see New England kicking to him. You don't think
why would you kick the Rashid Shiheed Man.
Speaker 2: Sometimes it'll just come off your foot wrong. You can
plan not to kick to him, you know, Yeah, I know,
I know, put it back there. I know he's exclusively
been a lot of punt return, but kickoff you put
him back there the kickoffs. With the new kickoff rule
where you have to land it, where you have to
kick it, it allows for a little bit more chance
return as well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I worry about Travion not getting much work in
this game, only three carries against Denver. It was like, yeah,
we don't really trust him in these conditions. And honestly
I looked up you know, Remandre. They talk about his fumble.
He's only fumbled in two games, yes, entire season.
Speaker 2: Rabel slapp him on the rest that it's no longer
like the Ramandre Stevenson fumbled. You know. So if I'm
betting Traveon Henderson, exact same thought, Andy is does he
get the volume? I would just take his longest rush
over because that's the real threat of Traveon Henderson, you know,
is what seven and a half if he if he
gets three carries, one of those could be a sixty
yard rush. You know what like like that is? That
is the home run ability that Travion Henderson has, So
any of those props. Seventeen and a half isn't an
awful one, but he could get seventeen and a half
over on his longest rush and you're only asking seven
and a half. He's a he's a home run hit guy.
He's not a volume, wear you down kind of guy.
That's where Remandre comes in.
Speaker 1: Last question before you get out of here, Greg, would
you ladder Drake May for rushing yards or.
Speaker 3: Just go for the over?
Speaker 1: This is a great question because myself and a couple
of other guys have talked about next season attempting to
get more into the ladder plays because there were a
few spots where it was just like, oh man, did
we did we miss out on them?
Speaker 2: You said, why didn't I bet more on this? Why
did I make it a five percent? I remember that Andy,
when you were like, yeah, we love this guy's spot.
You know, it wasn't a crazy low number. And he
goes over all and you could have gotten seven to
one by the time you would have laddered it up.
Speaker 1: It was Michael Wilson. When Marvin Harrison Junior was ruled out,
they put his receiving number at fifty six, and it
was like they're going to throw the ball a million times.
I think he had one hundred and seventy. We could
have hit even money. Two to ones, three to ones,
four to one, ten to ones. So yeah, listen, Drake
May when he goes over last two out of three games,
he'd flown over this one, and yeah, he might have
to run quite a bit if Seattle gets to him.
So blocked propstot cash is not free. I will attest
to that. It is far from free. Whatever the opposite
of free is. That's what props. So it's worthwhile for
myself and my team to get it. I'm happy to
pay for it so everybody can use it, but prepare
to drop some bucks for it. So so all right,
we got a lot, a lot of big stuff up
tomorrow is a huge combat sports. We have our four
percent UFC and four percent boxing best bet that is
up four percent NBA tonight, along with lacrosse plays, NBA plays.
Anything that we have, you'll you'll have. We're probably gonna
have some daily golf plays. We've got two going today,
so expect some more on Saturday and Sunday. The best
thing to do is just get that seven days for
three days. It runs out, I think tomorrow, so we've
got brain new specials coming out, and i'd be worried.
I don't know if that one's going to be in there.
So if you're hesitant, you're I don't know if I
should get it. Now's the time. Just get the seven
days for the price of three. It's one of the
best specials we run. So all right, that's gonna do
it for us. Thanks very much, guys, appreciate it. Dan,
great job this week. Let's get this across. Play home,
and let's have a big weekend. We'll see everyone Monday.
It's super Bowl week, guys. It's super Bowl week next week,
so expect a lot of props, a lot of super
Bowl talk. Can't wait to see you guys on Monday.
Good look on your bets. It'll have a big weekend.
Say everyone Monday. Take care