Speaker 1: All right, welcome into the best Betting show ever.
Speaker 2: As we inch a little bit closer to the big
game on Sunday, Joan area alongside Art does Caesar Steve Merrill.
Coming up a little bit later here in the show,
we're going to run down the latest on the Super
Bowl market as well as the prop betting market. Art's
going to have a few more of those, shall we say,
big bet.
Speaker 1: Props coming in there for you, so get ready.
Speaker 2: Well, also, let you know what's happening in the other markets,
college basketball, NBA, NHL and a parlay of the day,
some best bets and we'll do our rundowns for you
and Art come before the storm, right. Olympics already under
the way, I believe the USA women's hockey team getting
ready to go as the men have one more night
in the NHL, and then of course after that they'll
be flying out to take on hopefully Canada at some
point here. But it should be a lot of fun.
But in the meantime, what is the latest going on
at the Westgate here? What do we need to know
about the Super Bowl market?
Speaker 3: Five and forty five and a half, Joe, we have
not budged off that it feels like we've been there
for the last week. You know, we've probably started to
see a little bit more New England money than we
have over this you know, first week or so, we're
still you know, five to one ticket count on Seattle.
So we're still buried ticket wise on Seattle. You know,
as we look at this game, you know, as I
mentioned early, I think last week, we do really well
in New England. In the future market do pretty well
in Seattle. But New England is a really really good
win for us. If they do win the Super Bowl,
We're gonna need New England in the game. It feels like,
unless something really dramatically changes here, because like I said,
it feels like the sharps and the public are both
lined up on Seattle. People are still not nibbling on
our money line, the highest out there plus two dollars.
So listen, a lot can change. You know, we could
be sitting here Sunday morning and a lot changes. But
as we're sitting here Thursday morning, not much has changed
here in these last three or four.
Speaker 1: Days, you know.
Speaker 2: And I love when the leagues come out and the
reports you know, by parliam and everyone else, like, oh
we got a million dollar bet on Seattle. We got
a million dollar bet on the Patriots, and yet I'm
looking at the going, well.
Speaker 1: That didn't move very much. Huh uh.
Speaker 2: That's we got million dollar bets, six figure bets coming
in left and right, art and nothing's moving.
Speaker 1: I'm like, wait a minute, but what does that mean?
What is that?
Speaker 2: Well, it means art once again, and it's bears repeating
just because you're coming up to the window with you know,
six seven figure bets. Yeah, it doesn't mean you're gonna
be influencing the market in any way, shape or form.
Speaker 4: No, that's true.
Speaker 3: I mean when it comes to the super Bowl, outside
of maybe a couple of names who are going to
make that bet, the super Bowl, a line's really not
going to be influenced much, you know.
Speaker 4: I mean it's not Week six, correct.
Speaker 3: You know, It's not like when someone comes up and
that's fifty k, you know, on a Week six game,
then you really are like, okay, we got to put
you know, the super Bowl.
Speaker 4: It's hard to say, like we're.
Speaker 3: Booking to this action because there's just so much action
and the majority of its public. So it's just such
a different game and such a different exercise to book
a super Bowl compared to anything else.
Speaker 2: Yeah, don't get caught up with the oh dude put
a million dollars down, like yeah, okay, so what nobody
cares here, But we do anticipate volume will begin to increase,
probably later today into tomorrow ART, So we'll have a
final look tomorrow see if there's anything coming in that's
going to move the needle one way or the other side.
You're still laying to a beating four and a half. Five.
Speaker 1: It is what it is. Total.
Speaker 2: We do still anticipate ART that we're gonna get maybe
a little more over money is certainly over tickets, So
one way or the other, we're likely not gonna land
forty five. Would you bet on that?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 1: I would.
Speaker 3: And like I said, the our forty five was there
for a little bit. Now we're forty five and a half,
I really expect us to go up. I think we'll
get you know, maybe we could get back to our
opening number of forty six and a half, but I
definitely think we're gonna see forty six at some point.
Speaker 4: And you know, it's just one of those.
Speaker 3: Things where you're gonna get so much public money on
the over that you're not gonna be worried if a
sharp guy comes and hit you on under forty six,
because they're gonna be overwhelmed by the public money on
the over. So it's gonna be fine to kind of
book it that way.
Speaker 2: Love it all right, So we've got side and total. Now,
of course, time to talk about the big prop moves here.
Speaker 1: Art.
Speaker 2: You've been giving us a handful of each day that
you're seeing rolling in. So what do you got for
us today in the prop betting margin?
Speaker 3: This is gonna be the Hunter Henry day. He is
very popular with the Sharps. They took over thirty eight
and a half yards. They took over sixteen and a
half his longest reception. And then we have some matchup props, Joe,
which are a lot of fun. So we have Henry
versus Cooper Cup. They laid three and a half yards
and five and a half yards. That's up all the
way to nine and a half yards. That is a
prop where you are laying nine and a half yards
with Henry against Cup to have more yards and Cup
they did the same thing with Hunter Henry versus Kenneth Walker.
They laid eleven and a half they laid thirteen and
a half. We're now nineteen and a half on that.
So Hunter Henry very popular with the Sharps and he's
been pretty popular actually with the public too. For any
time touchdowns, to be the first touchdown scorer, to be
the first Patriots touchdown scorer. And then I'm gonna give
you another kicking prop, Myers, the Seattle kicker. To have
a fifty plus yard field goal.
Speaker 4: Wow.
Speaker 3: They took him at plus two fifty. We're now under
two dollars on that. Plus one ninety to have a
fifty yard plus field goal made in the game.
Speaker 1: Wow. All right, So there you go.
Speaker 2: And we've always said it, Art, We've been talking about that,
that they may be the special teams props. Certainly from
a kicking perspective. We're going to be very interesting moving forward,
just simply because something tells me both these coaches they
won't be throwing caution into win. Take the damn points
in the Super Bowl, all right, and don't be going
for it on fourth and four all the time. So
how about Art. We did get some questions in the
chat room, what are you seeing as far as the
two quarterbacks go?
Speaker 1: Any any action on the passing.
Speaker 2: Do guys believe we're gonna get, you know, a big
passing number passing yards over?
Speaker 1: Are we getting unders there?
Speaker 2: What are we seeing any sort of action regarding the
quarterbacks and throwing the ball?
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, the quarterback stuff has been kind of quiet,
to be honest with you, as far as the throwing.
Speaker 4: You know, as I mentioned yesterday, I believe.
Speaker 3: Or maybe even the day before, Drake May very popular
and is over rushing yards rushing attempts. So May's been
popular with his legs. Donald's been popular under with his legs.
But yeah, you know, the passing stuff is gonna be.
Speaker 4: Public stuff for the most part.
Speaker 3: They're gonna bet both quarterbacks over, both quarterbacks to throw,
you know, over their touchdowns, and then you're gonna get
into the index props where you could pick the exact
amount of yards where you're like, okay, here's the range
three hundred or three twenty two eighty two, Like you
kind of have like a twenty yard range in these
index props that you can bet you get nice odds
on that same thing with the touchdowns, like well, Donald
throw exactly three touchdowns.
Speaker 4: Things of that nature.
Speaker 3: If anything, the sharps go into those index props and
they'll bet like zero. They'll be like, Okay, Sam Darnold
zero touchdowns or Drake may zero touchdowns because they're just
looking for a price, which they know the public's not
gonna bet zero. The public's not interested in betting the
quarterbacks that throw zero because that's not the type of
game the public wants to see.
Speaker 4: Ever.
Speaker 3: They always want to see high scoring, you know, all
that type of stuff. So yeah, you know what, I'll
dive into a little bit more and if there are
some passing props that I can mention tomorrow, I'll try
to do that.
Speaker 2: I you know, you mentioned Hunter and Henry getting a
little bit of love here. You know, I've heard two
different schools of thought, and I'm wondering what you're seeing
regarding Varner on the other side of a J. Bonner
on the other side, because the tight ends, I mean,
you're talking about Bobo and we almost fell off the
chair laughing yesterday.
Speaker 1: It's hysterical that that's coming in.
Speaker 2: But what about it, I mean outside of you know
JSN for Seattle or is Cooper Kupp is the tight
end getting any love here?
Speaker 1: Or is everyone just folk on.
Speaker 2: JSN on the Seattle side because he's the guy. Certainly
the public, I would imagine it's just going to continue
to bet him like he's going to be you know,
Jerry Rice in the MVP across the board.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know who the public is really all over.
Speaker 4: They're betting Cooper Cup like he's the rams.
Speaker 3: You know, I want to say, and I'll give you
the full numbers tomorrow. I think right now on our
anytime touchdown score, just ticket count, Cup is like in
the top two or three. Wow, And listen, he's not
a crazy Yeah, he's not a crazy It's not like
he's twenty to one, right, you know, it's not like
he's a crazy number. But the name Cooper Cup outside
of you know, JSN tob A anytime touchdown score or
you know, I don't know, Stevenson's getting some love for
the Patriots, Cup is right there with ticket count. He's
been very popular with the public. Yeah, I mean Cooper Cup.
And even if you see a little bit of people
sprinkling on him to win the MVP.
Speaker 1: Ah, I love that. I love that a lot.
Speaker 2: Here are you are those starting does the public dive
into MVP That MVP of the game is because it's
almost always a quarterback. We know that, but are we
seeing love outside the quarterback? Possibly in this game since
it's such a low total too.
Speaker 3: What really happens with the MVP is, of course you're
gonna get your tickets on both quarterbacks, but you really
start to see everyone.
Speaker 4: Take shots with the long shots long shots, you.
Speaker 3: Know, and it's all five, ten, fifteen to twenty dollars bets.
Speaker 4: I mentioned this last week.
Speaker 3: Every defensive guy becomes popular, yep, because.
Speaker 4: They're all at long odds.
Speaker 3: You know, there's a lot of guys at one hundred,
two hundred and three hundred to one.
Speaker 4: I've mentioned before.
Speaker 3: There's always a kicker that gets love, and this year
will be the Seattle kicker. There's always a kicker that
gets love in the MVP market. Obviously, a kicker has
never won the MVP of the game. Obviously, defensive guys
have won the thing that you don't see anymore because
it hasn't happened since Terrell Davis. The running backs never
win any yep, so they don't really get much love
in the market. I mean, obviously, if Stevenson had like
three touchdowns of the game, he would obviously have to
be in the conversation here.
Speaker 4: But that's the one thing.
Speaker 3: You see the ticket count on the running backs to
win the MVP very low.
Speaker 2: Up there, you go, all right, worth taking a flyer here.
Anything is possible, that is for sure, Art to Caesar
here and Art. In addition, of course, in a big
game on Sunday, the prop betting market, we still got
college hoops, we still got NBA.
Speaker 1: Will Jannis be traded? Will he not?
Speaker 2: I bet you John Moran is going to be traded
though before, maybe even before this show is over here.
Speaker 1: Art, But how about the moves today?
Speaker 2: You're getting a little less action because of all the
uncertainty in the NBA, because yesterday was just over the top.
You know, the market was moving left and right with
the announcements going on. It's you know, usually I try
to back off on days like this because the uncertainty
is over the top.
Speaker 4: Art, the uncertainty is over the top. But no, we
have some NBA moves. You know.
Speaker 3: We took some Mavericks money at plus seven and a
half this morning they're playing the Spurs that's now six
and a half. Took some money on the Hornets at
plus three and a half for now two and a half.
Took some good over money on the Hawks very high
total two forty two. We're now two forty four and
a half. So you've seen a two and a half
point move there. When you go to the college basketball
ton of action this morning, they took Idaho at plus four.
They took cal riverside plus five and a half. They
took Abilene Christian plus thirteen and a half. They laid
three and a half with Marineck. They also took the
over in the Memphis game over one fifty three, the
under in the Denver game won sixty and a half,
and the under in the Campbell game one forty three and.
Speaker 1: A half, one forty three and a half.
Speaker 2: There you go, all right, some college basketball, NBA, NHL action.
All right, Art, You and I got destroyed in our
partway of today.
Speaker 1: Yesterday I knew I was. I was at the Panther game.
Speaker 2: I should have just taken the Panthers last night to
won a great one in a shootout, but they tonight
you mentioned it. The Bruins were getting sharp love yesterday.
Now they gotta hop on the road the Panthers and
go up to Tampa, a pretty big game. It's always
big between those two teams. You're getting any love one
way or the other. Are we fading the Panthers again tonight?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 3: I mean Tampa will be very popular in the moneyline parlays.
And you know, outside of when we get our sharp
NHL action, most of our general public action in the
NHL is parlays. There's a lot of parlays, a lot
of people taking the two or three biggest favorites of
the day parlaying them with maybe the two or three
biggest favorites in the NBA.
Speaker 4: So you get a lot of that.
Speaker 3: You know what happens too if you know Tampa is
that type of favorite, maybe there's a little bit of
love of the three way. Yes, you know the sixty
minute so you know, obviously you pay a cheaper price there,
so maybe someone comes in and looks to take Tampa
on that type of angle.
Speaker 2: What you should be doing is looking for the biggest
dogs of the night is what you should be doing,
because inevitably you're gonna hit make some money on those.
Speaker 1: All right, parley of the day here art, So kick
us off? Here are you going?
Speaker 2: NHL College hoops, NBA? What's your play for us here today?
Speaker 4: I'm going NHL.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna lay a minus one thirty five road favorite.
Ottawa goes to Philly to end this little stretch for
for the Olympics. Ottawa gets it done tonight.
Speaker 2: Wo Ottawa getting it done here tonight. All right, I
don't mind that one art actually at all.
Speaker 1: It's funny.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with the NBA here tonight. You mentioned
the Hornets are getting some love, and they should be,
although they just traded for some guys and all of
a sudden, you know, you got a winning streak and
now you got new faces in the locker room. That's
interesting there. But I agree also with the market on
the MAVs here because I do think the spar second
of a back to back never easy playing old case,
even though they've rested everybody. So I'm gonna follow suit.
I'm gonna take the MAVs here tonight against the Spurs.
I'll grab the points and Cooper Flagg is dropping thirty
five forty points a game like he knows what he's
doing here. Art should be very interesting moving forward. All right,
we are a set here art ready to roll. Of course,
we'll be back again tomorrow. You'll give us that final
installment for the Super Bowl odds. We'll see if anything
moves any of the big prop bet moves as well,
So enjoy it. Art, always a pleasure, the calm before
the storm. Get ready to pull that hair out, brother,
because you know they're all showing up there over the
next forty eight hours.
Speaker 3: Yes, sir, listen, we'll have plenty to do tomorrow with
the obviously the Super Bowl, a lot more props, and
we are going to talk a little bit of MLB
win totals. We have seen some moves off of our
opening numbers, so we'll definitely do that tomorrow as well.
Speaker 2: All always a pleasure art this Caesar again. We'll see
him tomorrow with the final look into what's happening at
the book for the big Game on Sunday. More props,
of course, and all the latest information you need to know.
Make sure you hit that like button, hit that subscribe
button if you haven't done so already. And of course
knowledge is power, which is what it is all about.
And speaking of knowledge, let's bring in our good friend
mister double R one.
Speaker 1: L Steve Merrill in the house.
Speaker 2: Ready to go, All right, Steve, we got one more
leg of a parlay of the day. We need to
get from you. You were money on yours yesterday. Aren't
and I sucked. But he's got an NHL game, I
got an NBA game.
Speaker 1: What are you going to make a third leg with
for us here today?
Speaker 5: Well, we'll go with the college basketball game to mix
it up a little bit show and I'm gonna look
at my neck of the woods. The CAA, the Colonial,
not the Colonial, the Coastal Athletic Siation still the CIA,
though as all their games not on Thursdays, they often do.
And I think the best team of the conference might
be Hostro. They were the highest rated team coming into
conference play and they just haven't performed as well as expected.
In fact, they had a five game losing streak that
they finally snapped with a sixteen point road win on
Saturday at Momoth. I think that might be the by
sign with Hofstra terrible Northeastern defensive squad. Tonight, I looked
for Hostra with a double digit win, lay the nine
and a half with Hofstra at that's at seven Eastern.
Speaker 1: Woo, get it done.
Speaker 2: The pride getting it going here tonight. So there you
got it, guys. A little parlay of the day, we'll
drop in some of our favorite best bets of the day.
We'll run down the NBA and college basketball for you
on this Thursday, but Merril, a couple of days away
from the big game, of course, Locked loaded over at
wager talk dot com. What do you got going on
for everyone here tonight? In fact, as in honor of
the press, it's always time for a little business.
Speaker 5: Here, time for some business business in the front. It
can only imagine what the party in the back looks
like in that photo. Beware, beware what you asked for?
He said he's going to bring out other costumes when
he returns from his ski trip. That looks like a
ski bib a ste when it's like fifty or sixty degrees.
So hopefully he's got some nice cold weather because it's
better for skiing, but more importantly, it's better for the
other skiers not to have to see that outfit. We
do have a strong best bet tonight in the NBA,
also a strong college hoops play, and my Super Bowl
sixty best bet is locked and load. It's been up
there now for a week and there's still excellent line
value in my top play for Super Bowl sixties don't
sleep on that college basketball, Pro basketball, and the NFL
three plays tonight. Now you can buy him a la carte,
or of course you can get the super Bowl to
super Bowl special and get tonight free, and get Friday
free and Saturday free, because when you buy the super
Bowl to Super Bowl you get the rest of this
week in advance for free. That works out to about
a dollar a play for every football, basketball and baseball
best bet for the next year plus. And oh, by
the way, Joe, we won again last night in the
NBA over a sixty two percent run the past couple months,
number one all the time in the NBA, justus smoking them.
I think it's now forty and twenty four run the
last couple months in the Association. Oh by the way, Joe,
bonus free play, which I'm not giving out here on
the show, a bonus free college basketball play for tonight
on Thursday on my page, So that reason alone to
go there. Get the daily free play, check out the
best bets and the special offers. Is also a by
ten days for the price of seven. If you want
something a little bit smaller, Steve Merrillwager Talk dot com
WT dot slash sm.
Speaker 2: Is the way to do it, Steve, All right, lockloaded guys,
four percent NBA, four percent college basketball, and our five
percent super Bowl max bet is available up at wager
talk dot com. Included a whole bunch of prop bets
that I like that you can go grab in that
play as well. But like Steve said, take advantage of
you know, the ten days for I mean the deals
they got going on at wage and Talk right now,
even super Bowl to super Bowl for ninety nine bucks
a month. It's all about a long term investment, guys.
That's what it's always about here if you want to
go ahead and profit on a consistent basis. So we've
got plays locked and loaded ready to go there tonight, Marill,
why don't we start with a couple of best bets
we like to night? And something tells me you might
head back to your alma monta Cia. There, Am I correct?
Speaker 1: Here? Where are you going for a best bet here today?
Speaker 6: Yeah?
Speaker 5: We're gonna stick in my neck of the woods with
more CAAA action here. And this is another situation in
which I think we get the better team, but unlike
the Hawks are playing, which I think we're getting a
team that's maybe gonna break out, got to win by
double digits. I'm gonna look at a better team focused
spot in a basic straight up win situation, and that's
what the Phoenix of Elon Elon University minus the one
one and a half see a little bit of a
two out.
Speaker 6: There's some other ones one and a half.
Speaker 5: So we'll say Elon minus one and a half is
the consensus number at Hampton seven o'clock Eastern. This really
is in my neck of the woods, closest game for
me tonight, and Hampton is mediocre at best. They're able
to hold their own occasionally in CAA action. But Elon's
the superior team here and this should be a focused spot.
As they're coming off a bad loss at home against
Stony Brook on Saturday. Keep in mind though they had
beaten Willm and Mary a couple nights earlier, big upset
home dog win against the Tribe, a game which they
trailed the majority of the game came from behind to win.
I think they just came in a little bit flat
last Saturday against Stony Brook. I look for them to
get back on track now well rested, short road trip
over the state border up to Virginia to play Hampton,
and there's also a matchup edge I like in this game,
which I'll talk about here with Elon. Elon's weakness is
they give up a lot of three pointers. First of all,
they're three point they give up almost as much as
any team in the country. About half the opponent's shots
come from three point range, and they don't defend it
well either. But Hampton is one of the worst three
point shooting teams in the country. It's not an understatement.
There are three hundred and sixty five teams in Division
one basketball and Hampton is shooting twenty eight percent from
three point range. That ranks three hundred and fifty sixth
out of three sixty five. So they are as bad
shooting the ball as anybody in the country. So I
don't think they can take advantage of Elon's weakness. Elon
the much better offensive team here, and I always like
good offenses on the road because they can score. And
I think Elon will be able to score at will
in this game from bus two and three point range
and they'll be focused tonight. Hey, straight up win situation,
good matchup with the better team. I like Elon minus
one and a half at seven Eastern.
Speaker 2: Woo elon getting it done here tonight. Love that, of course,
i'd want to say, as William and Mary Tribe are
also in tonight here bots. I am also going to
go Steve, I think in the college basketball direction, and
I am going to take a look at how about
Northern Arizona right now getting seven and a half. It's
a battle for the bottom of the Big Sky Conference.
Huh watch a lot of Big Sky do you know
you don't Northern Arizona taking on Idaho State. Northern Arizona
sitting at eight and fifteen and oh yeah, by the way,
oh and nine in road games, however, they have been
an ATM machine. They have covered eleven games here in
Idaho State, by the way, is not killing people. Ten
and thirteen on a season. They are six and three
at home, but they've lost their last five games, and
the last four of them, by.
Speaker 1: The way, coming on the road here, hintint.
Speaker 2: These two teams already played last month in Flagstaff, with
Idaho State barely winning eighty one to seventy nine. Bus
didn't cover the four and a half spread, So I'm
not quite sure exactly where we're getting this number from.
But shooting is not a problem for Northern Arizona. They
had forty seven percent from the field. They're almost close
to thirty eight percent from three point range.
Speaker 1: Now, I'll take the points Arizona.
Speaker 2: They may not win, but they are likely going to
keep this a very close game against Idaho State here tonight, Merril, huh, well,
big sky action, what do you think?
Speaker 6: Yeah?
Speaker 5: I like where you're going there, And it's funny. I
look at these two teams. They are two of the
worst defensive teams in the country in the three hundreds
in efficiency, and both offenses are actually like middle of
the packs. And like you said, they're not terrible offenses.
Yet the totals held steady around one two and a half.
You're thinking, oh, maybe an over. But then you look
at the tempo ratio of these two teams, Joe, they're
both in the three thirties. They're two of the slowest
half court teams in the country, so they both like
to play this slow style. They both have terrible defenses,
so makes sense why that total hasn't moved by to night.
So I think you're probably better off, as you said,
looking at the side. One thing I will point out,
Idaho State gets a lot of their points from the
free throw line and Northern Arizona. The one thing they
do well is not putting their opponent on the charity stripe, right,
So that does bode well for you as the big
dogs night.
Speaker 6: Also, yeah, I'll.
Speaker 1: Take the points all day.
Speaker 2: They guys, got a couple of best bets here for today.
Don't forget to hit that like button, end to subscribe
button for you, Meryl. Before we dive into the NBA
college basketball rundowns, we'll cover a couple of games here
on the board the Super Bowl. Talk to Art earlier,
they are still holding strong.
Speaker 1: Four and a half and five.
Speaker 2: We are still He's up to forty five and a
half now for the total, still a lot of forty fives.
It appears not only Art, but a lot of the
guys in the risk rooms they feel over money is
still coming in here, but over the next twenty four
to forty eight hours. I guess the big question is
are we really getting over four and a half for five?
I mean, is it likely to go closer to New England,
closer to Seattle or are we looking at four and
a half or five one way or the other at this.
Speaker 5: Point, Well, bet three six five, at least according to
the Odds Logic screen, is dealing a five five and
a half. Well, they're a little bit of a public book,
you know, so that's not a surprise, and they also
have been known to limit winners from what I've heard.
I don't want to disparage them here, but that's what
I've been told, so you know, that tells me once
again that Seattle is the public side, because the best
number I can find out here on the odds Logic screen.
By the way, I anybody like to try odds Logic
for free for seven days is a free link on
my page at wager talk dot com, and they do
have the props and everything, So it might be a
good weekend to try that free seven day trial because
you can look at all these numbers that Joe and
I are looking at. But I do see a five
and a half at bet three sixty five, which is
kind of the outlier of the Westgate. You know, Arts
mentioned that they're getting a lot of Seattle money. They
are standing at five, but a lot of books around
the world, including FanDuel and DraftKings, are four and a half,
but they're juiced minus one twelve minus one fifteen. So
if you like Seattle, the four and a half looks
like the way to go. And it's really actually hard
to find a four and a half flat anymore. There's
a lot of fives out there. Four and a half
juice if you like the Patriots. Probably not in a
hurry right now, maybe grab that five and a half.
But five is kind of a dead number, right So
do you possibly see a six with us outlier book,
you know, on Sunday? I guess it's possible. So I
think you played Seattle sooner than later. You played New
England later, And same thing with the over under. We're
seeing a few forty fives out there. The circa in Vegas,
a fairly sharp book, does have a forty five. Everybody
else pretty much has forty five and a halves. Hard
for me to imagine the public won't come in a
little bit on the over although, Joe, these are two
of the top defensive teams in the NFL, so I
don't know how that plays in the equation. Obviously, everybody
realizes that New England Denver game was kind of a junk,
low scoring game because you had a backup quarterback, you
had snow. The Seattle ram game was fairly open with
the scoring. I would expect that total to rise back up.
I think forty five will be the lowest total we
see any point this week.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with you. I think that's it. It
ain't gonna go any lower than that in this one here,
all right, guys, we got much more to get to here.
We're going to start, of course with the n B
A Meryl and the NBA. Of course we are coming
up on at three o'clock Eastern time deadline.
Speaker 1: Where well, if.
Speaker 2: You're still on the team at three on one Eastern,
while you're gonna be on the team, and it looks
like you're honest, will remain a Milwaukee Buck here, Meryll,
not not moving. I don't think he actually sees the
court again this season. I think they'll just shut him
down with the calf injury moving forward. But John Moran
still looks to be on a team here, Meryl, And
I'm shocked at Memphis hasn't been able to get rid
of them, because they have been shopping him for a while,
but they've lowered the asking price. Do you think he
remains in Memphis here after they've gotten rid of everyone else.
Speaker 5: Why don't they package James Harden and John Moran. You
can have the worst two some trade in the history
of the NBA. I just don't get it. One thing
things jump out to me. Know, as handicappers, we look
at things differently, Joan, When you and I used to
do the NBA Show all the time a few years ago,
you know, Moran was hurt for half that season with
the Grizzlies, and the Grizzlies had a better record. They
were over seventy percent that year with him out of
the lineup on like thirty some games, right, So that's
a red flag for me. And you know, it's the
same thing like in college football. I remember, you know,
like RG three wins the Heisman at Baylor, he goes
to the NFL. He has a great rookie season, but
then the new quarterback at Baylor breaks all the records
or comes close or whatever. That makes you think it's
the system, right and not the player. And I've always
said Harden is vastly overrated for the same reason. We
joked about that yesterday, Like go have them Cleveland, you're
a contender team. I know they have to shake things up.
The Caves have underperformed this year, But Harden's not the answer.
The guy's all offense, no defense, and now he's aging,
his defense isn't getting better. And in playoff playoff time, Hey,
the Oklahoma City's under the best team in the NBA
defensively the last couple of years. We saw how dominant
they were last year. So I think Moran falls into
that same category. A great, flashy offensive guy, not a
good defensive guy. And there wasn't a lot of drop
off when he's been out over the years, So not
a surprise to me that they're having a difficult time
moving them. And I think there's also a little bit
of a concern with the mindset there as well. It
feels like he's wanted to be out of Memph for
several years, and I think that concerns what every team
picks him up, is he gonna want to be away
from your team, just like Harden kind of seems to
want to be away from his team every other year.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he is not a locker room guy. I mean,
it doesn't shock me at all that why would you
try to bring him in at this point in the
season if you're a contender. Good luck with that here.
But we do have some games that have seen quite
a bit of movement. We're also seeing a whole lot
of games here merrill with a huge, huge spread. So
let's go ahead and started off with that game up
at the top of the board with Brooklyn at Orlando. Listen,
Orlando at this point can't hit water if they fell
out of a boat.
Speaker 1: They are a hot mess, to say the least.
Speaker 2: But they are taking on a Nets team that specializes
in getting blown out here most of the week. It
opened up at eleven and a half. It's down to
nine and a half to total is creeping up a
little bit. Two fifteen's available. I can't think of a
worse team than the Magic to hope to cover by
margin here, not with my money. And the Pistons red
hot here, but they're laying two touchdowns against whatever the
Wizards are doing. I have no idea. All they're doing
is collecting a bunch of aging, overpriced veterans who can't
play it because they're hurt.
Speaker 1: Good luck with that.
Speaker 2: But Detroit opened up as a seventeen point favorite, down
to fourteen and a half. You got the bulls who
made some trades there. Looking at the Raptors. Raptors, second
night of a back to back, tough loss for them
last night. They are laying eight and a half here tonight,
but no way, I'm sweating out an under in that game,
one way or the other. Jazz and the Hawks, Merril,
we got the Hawks getting nothing but money here today.
They're also laying close to double digits. They opened up
as a ten point favorite, but it looks like it's
creeped down a little bit. I'm seeing nines against that
new look Jazz team. Charlotte at Houston, it's kind of
gone back and forth. You're getting Charlotte money, you got
Houston money. Opened up in Houston at five. Now we're
seeing fours here. Charlotte red hot, Houston, second of a
back to back, third game in four nights. Not a
great spot for Houston. San Antonio and Dallas. We're starting
to see nothing but San Antonio money. Up to seven,
seven and a half. Why San Antonio just played OKC
last night. I like the way Cooper Flag is going
Golden State and Phoenix five and a half. Who's playing
for Golden State? To have no idea would be Phoenix
sur passed and the Lakers can't beat teams over five
hundred Merril, so I have absolutely no intention of betting
them tonight against the over five hundred Philadelphia seventy sixers.
So which one of these games surprised you the most?
Some of these numbers Merril seventeen points for Detroit opened
up overnight is absurd.
Speaker 5: Yeah, So I'm gonna do a double video here later
this afternoon, get as close to the trade deadline as
Possible'll probably put it a little bit before to make
sure nothing happens. But I will have two of those
national TV ands with the later games. I'll have a
Spurs Mavericks preview and also a Warrior Sun's preview on Prime.
People want me to do the Prime Games Joe on
Thursday because we went sixteen and three in the NFL,
so they're going to I'll do a video for that
Warriors Suns game. But, like you said, difficult to handicap
a lot of these games tonight, so I'll have some
info on that. Some of the other games you mentioned,
we'll look at those Wizards plus the fourteen and a
half fifteen. You know, they were so bad out of
the gate and they went on that run. They've still
covered for their last six and the Pistons are coming
off a win, so you know, it's not exactly a
huge focused spot for him. So not surprised to see
that line drop from the opener of seventeen. You mentioned
Orlando Brooklyn. That's such a low total. It's the lowest
total on the board, along with the Golden State Phoenix
game to fourteen and a half two to fifteen. But
what jumps out to me about that game Both Brooklyn
and Orlando they're playing terrible defense. Both have given up
over fifty percent in almost every one of their games
over the last couple of weeks, and yet the Magic
are on like a four to one underrun. Just wondering
if maybe we're getting some reverse ve value now with
the over in that game. So I'd actually take a
look at over two fifteen between Brooklyn and Orlando, two
bad defenses and live very low barrier to get up
and over And kind of talked about this yesterday. You know,
this time of the week, with the trade deadline approach
in the NBA All Star Game around the corner, got
to be careful for some of these games. When teams
aren't focused, I think that leads to less defense. More
offense and a playground mentality, so always looking for reasons
of playovers in some of these games. I think that
Brooklyn Orlando one might be a game that gets a
little higher score than people expect.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, even for Orlando, who who been a
rough go for them for sure. Meryl College basketball interesting
hard here tonight and it starts. I guess the biggest
name teams are going to be Penn State and Michigan, right,
but I mean twenty five and a half points and
hasn't really done much against Penn State tonight won sixty
one and a half, won sixty two. I know it's
a lot of points. I not exactly great and big
ten play, but my goodness, I mean Michigan just coming
off of at Michigan State win they beat Nebraska last week.
Are we running to the wind out of late twenty
five and a half even against Penn State?
Speaker 5: Steve, Yeah, Penn State's a really bad team this year
and they've obviously struggled to compete.
Speaker 6: But it does look like a big number.
Speaker 5: And here again, does Michigan care about winning by twenty
three or twenty seven?
Speaker 6: Right?
Speaker 5: It makes no difference to them, and they are coming
off the huge win against Michigan State last Friday night
National TV Top ten Battle on the Road and oh,
don't look now, but they've got Ohio State on the
road this Sunday. So this is a huge sandwich spot.
I'm not in a hurry to play bad teams, Joe,
and I think you know, they could easily win this
game by over thirty, and that's what kept me off
the game tonight. I'm not going to back Penn State.
They're a terrible team, but situationally, this does not look
like a great spot for Michigan. The concern though with
Michigan is they might not be able to help a
win by thirty because they had the number one two
point shooting offense and the number two two point defense
and Penn State has the tenth worst two point defense
in the country. Yep, So I mean Michigan State's gonna
be able to score it will down low here.
Speaker 1: Again.
Speaker 5: I know people don't always have access to team totals,
but I think there's such a great way to play
college hoops, and there's a reason half the books don't
offer them because they're soft. Yep, I mean Michigan's team
totals around ninety three and a half in this game,
you know they probably cover if they get over ninety
three and a half. I guess Penn State's at like
sixty eight. But yeah, it's a terrible scheduling spot. But
I still want nothing to do with Penn State based
on this matchup.
Speaker 2: No, no, you can't. It's very hard to even consider
Penn State here. Say listen, Ohio State taking on Maryland.
Same situation, Meryl. I've seen nothing but tickets on Ohio State.
But yet it's not moved a whole lot here right,
still seeing seven seven and a half, So little reverse
line freeze here is what we've got. I mean, somebody's
got to be backing Maryland. Otherwise this line I thought
would have been the eight and a half by now.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I felt seven is kind of like the fair
number in this game. As I mentioned, Ohio State's got
that big look ahead to Michigan on Sunday, so we'll
see how they do in this one with that game.
They are coming off of loss to Wisconsin last Saturday, though,
so I think on the road once again AF a loss,
that should be a pretty focused spot. I don't think
they overlook this Maryland squad. Maryland's got one of the
worst three point defenses in the country. Ohio sted as
one of the best, but be careful with that. It's
kind of like turnover margins, you know, turnovers to side
football games. Three point shooting decides basketball games, and I
always feel like there's a little bit of random variance
with turnovers. Obviously, fumbles are very random interceptions. You know
some teams better than others. But I still think three
point shooting is a little bit of a random variable.
And you got the road team with the better three
point d only thirty percent of the year. They're probably
due to regress at some point, whereas Maryland has been
terrible all year, but they're at home. So here Again,
a little bit of a contrarian call maybe on Maryland,
but it's hard to make a case for them on paper.
They're definitely the weaker team at both ends of the court.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they are not good and one of the one
of Steve's all time favorites is listened. Low totals are
low for a reason. High totals are high for a reason,
and the highest total lot of board tonight Meryll out
West with Northridge against cal Poly SLEW one seventy six
and a half won seventy seven. And it's high for
a reason because these two teams have never met a game.
They don't love to run up and down the court
and chuck it up there. But it's interesting because it's
almost a pick and price. Northridge is a slight road
favorite here against cal Poly.
Speaker 1: But the one thing we know, Merrill.
Speaker 2: There are going to be possessions in this game, a
lot of them. There's gonna be a ton of shots
being chucked up. Yeah, at the high.
Speaker 1: Don't be afraid of the high totals, right, They're high
for a reason.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean that's why they go by cal Poly,
not cal Poly slow or because they play so fast.
You can't call them that. As I said earlier, three
hundred and sixty five teams in Division one men's basketball
crazy cal Poly second, cal State Northwidge third. These are
two of the three fastest up tempo teams in the country.
This total should be higher. This's a perfect example of that, Joe,
where I think that you know, the highest totals are
not high enough. There is zero chance this is not
a track meet. These are two of the top three
taste teams in the country, So it's not like one
of them is going to slow down the other one.
Speaker 1: Yep.
Speaker 5: And then you look at the matchup. Home teams normally
shoot the three better.
Speaker 1: YEP.
Speaker 5: I don't necessarily like cal Poly in this game, but
they do have the fifth best three point They take
the fifth most three pointers in the country. Over half
their shots are from three point range, and cal State
Northridge gives up a ton of threes. They give up
almost half their shots from three, whereas cal State scores
more from two point range. So I think both teams
are getting their preferred offensive matchup as well. Yeah, I
definitely like the over in this one.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: If it ain't broke, don't fix it, are guys, it's
high for a raison. These two teams are going to
be flying up and down the court here tonight. So
they got a a couple of college hoops games for
you to keep an eye on, not the biggest names
on the card, but another big weekend just ahead in
college basketball, and of course Sunday as well. There Merrill,
you're gonna have a couple of NBA videos folks can
seek out here and check out on the on Wager
Talk of course, on our YouTube page, guys, make sure,
which is why it would do you very well to
go ahead and hit the subscribe at the like button
and you'll always get notified when we get videos like
this up and ready to go. In the meantime, merrill
once again at your page at wager talk dot com,
lockedanloaded with what here tonight.
Speaker 5: Yeah, we got that advanced super Bowl best better then
also one college one pro basketball. We cashed again in
the NBA last night on over a sixty two percent run,
number one all time in the NBA. So one college,
one pro and the Super Bowl play can get them
all individually tonight. But the best deal seven days, ten
days for the price of seven. It's like seven, but
you get ten ninety nine dollars. Or how about getting
a full month for ninety nine every month for just
ninety nine with the super Bowl to Super Bowl special
plus the rest of this week for free. Doesn't matter
which package you choose. One day, one week, one year.
Everybody gets my personal best bets each day. Then that
way Joe for almost thirty years. This August will be
my thirtieth anniversary. This is a full time professional capper
and handicapper and sports better August of nineteen ninety six.
Speaker 6: Joe Rniary is just finishing elementary school again thirty years ago,
and I looked it up.
Speaker 5: Joe, how appropriate The traditional thirtieth anniversary gift.
Speaker 4: Is pearls, Merle the pearl.
Speaker 5: The modern there's a modern gift is diamond I mean,
how appropriate is that?
Speaker 6: Right? That's what we're talking about.
Speaker 5: It's taking money to buy some pearls and diamonds. Best
bets at wager talk dot com.
Speaker 2: Get your pearls and you get your diamonds going here, guys, outstanding,
Happy anniversary, Meryl. I think I was just graduating in
the second grade, So that's impressive stuff there. Well done, guys,
don't forget. We'll be back again tomorrow a very special
Friday edition. Merril will be back. Art will be back
as well. We'll give you all the latest information you
need to know on all the sharp line moves, updates
across the board, on what's happening with the Super Bowl
odds and prop bets. In the meantime, guys, have a
hell of a night, enjoy it, Go get those best
bets up over at wager talk dot com, and we'll
see you again tomorrow on the Best betting show ever