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Speaker 1: I'm joined here by my good buddy, Long Long, what's up?
Speaker 3: All right? All ride o bo ciphas Here we go,
Speaker 3: fresh off a pre recording argument about Travis Hunter. Maybe
Speaker 3: we'll get to that when the show. I always love
Speaker 3: starting the show off with a good little argument that
Speaker 3: nobody gets to see week number eight in the NFL, buddy,
Speaker 3: And that means we're basically at the half way mark.
Speaker 3: So how about a little halftime report on FGH and
Speaker 3: our productivity. I'll make it real quick for you guys.
Speaker 3: I suck, I'm not doing any good. C K he's
Speaker 3: doing good and bo Sevas is awesome. There you go.
Speaker 3: Are you happy? There's your halftime report from FGH. But
Speaker 3: I will but I will ask you this, bo Sevs,
Speaker 3: have you ever seen anyone make being about five hundred
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Speaker 3: good because it was a rhetorical question. I didn't want
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Speaker 3: the money. I am longhorned. I try to be the funny.
Speaker 3: We are FG eight, So let's bring it to him
Speaker 3: one more time. This Bosivas so hit that. But whether
Speaker 3: you are here.
Speaker 1: For the funny, it's a question for fun. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: have fun, and you're gonna have fun.
Speaker 2: We're all gonna have so much fucking fun.
Speaker 1: When the plastic surgery to remove our goddamn s files,
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Speaker 3: Are you out here for the money?
Speaker 1: Anybody tells your money is the root of all evil.
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Speaker 1: Look at the fucking smile on my face.
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Speaker 3: Two questions for you people. Do you like football? What
Speaker 3: a stupid question? That is? What a stupid question.
Speaker 4: You ask a lot of stupid questions.
Speaker 3: My apologies, mister President's I will do better. Do you
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Speaker 1: I'm a big fan of money. I like it.
Speaker 3: I use it.
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Speaker 1: What do you think is happening right now? Excuse me?
Speaker 1: What is happening here? What is happening? What the fuck
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Speaker 3: Oh?
Speaker 1: You know what's happening. It's time for all those wins
Speaker 1: coming in the heads to Nightmber. Alright, boys and girls,
Speaker 1: it's time, dude, it's time to get into that Week
Speaker 1: eight card in the NFL. We're gonna start down the
Speaker 1: coln over the Panthers, supposed to know. Let's go Buffalo.
Speaker 1: That's the Bills, all right. Looking at our preseason line here,
Speaker 1: I had Buffalo minus six. Vegas had Buffalo minus seven.
Speaker 1: I think Vegas have the better of me. Here had
Speaker 1: a refreshment screen here. Last time I saw it, it
Speaker 1: was seven. Yeah, pretty much seven across the board here,
Speaker 1: long Horne. I'm trying to see the Indy six and
Speaker 1: a half popping yet. No, and the money is still
Speaker 1: coming in on Buffalo. You got some seven and a half.
Speaker 1: So I was a little bit but I've admitted from
Speaker 1: the preseason I was a little bit low in Buffalo.
Speaker 1: But Carolina Buffalo taking the money here? What do you got?
Speaker 3: Carolina's taking the money?
Speaker 1: No, Buffalo's taking the money.
Speaker 3: Then why is it going down?
Speaker 1: Now going down. It's trending up towards the seven and
Speaker 1: a half. So seven is juice all the way across.
Speaker 1: Seven and a half is at minus one O three
Speaker 1: at Heritage and South Point is flap money minus one.
Speaker 1: It's minus one twelve at both ways and seven and
Speaker 1: a half. So yeah, definitely coming in on the Buffalo
Speaker 1: bills fair enough.
Speaker 3: And I don't this, I don't have a strong one
Speaker 3: on this one. I Carolina, honestly being we got fucked
Speaker 3: on or at least I got fun because I would
Speaker 3: be all over Carolina if this was Bryce Young, which
Speaker 3: is a weird thing to say because since when is
Speaker 3: Bryce Young like a key factor? But let's not let's
Speaker 3: not also skim over the fact that Carolina's four and
Speaker 3: three this year. They're over under for wins. Was it
Speaker 3: was it six and a half?
Speaker 1: Is that what six and a half? Six and a half?
Speaker 3: Oh? Is this one of the and that's part of
Speaker 3: the handicap? Is like yet like Carolina, let's be honest,
Speaker 3: is built to be this Buffalo team. They could Buffalo
Speaker 3: can't stop the run. Carolina wants to run the ball.
Speaker 3: But and there's a there's even a trend that's heavy
Speaker 3: on Carolina. That that I'll talk about too, But basically
Speaker 3: it's it's do you have faith in the old man,
Speaker 3: Andy Dalton. It's basically all this this handy gap comes
Speaker 3: down to, can you trust an old Andy Dalton coming
Speaker 3: off the bench? We've seen this work this year in
Speaker 3: the NFL with the old quarterbacks. I don't know that
Speaker 3: I necessarily want to trust any Dalton. I don't. I
Speaker 3: don't like what I've seen for eighty percent of his
Speaker 3: starts over the last year I have. It's been cringey
Speaker 3: and and terrible. So I mean seriously like he had
Speaker 3: I mean I I, you know, touted that he's one
Speaker 3: of the better backups last year, and he came in
Speaker 3: and played a handful of games and was just garbage
Speaker 3: besides one game, So I can't trust him. And then
Speaker 3: and then you you mentioned it, Buffalo coming off of bye, desperate,
Speaker 3: desperate for a win like they've been. They've been hungry
Speaker 3: for a win for two or three weeks now. It's
Speaker 3: just a it's just a bad motivation spot for Carolina
Speaker 3: to go against a buffle team needs a win. But
Speaker 3: the trend seven point dogs at home in the first
Speaker 3: nine games this year are forty or this is not
Speaker 3: just as year, but going back over the first nine games,
Speaker 3: it's a forty to eleven trend. So yeah, so so
Speaker 3: like so basically that's why I'm told that's why I can't.
Speaker 3: I can't sell this game because like everything tells me,
Speaker 3: go Caroline except for the ship ass quarterback, which I'll
Speaker 3: have to check both sevas don't. The quarterback does touch
Speaker 3: the ball every single play correct for the most part,
Speaker 3: like unless they do some trick play. So so it's
Speaker 3: kind of a big deal. And then on the other side,
Speaker 3: you got you got, I don't know, m v P.
Speaker 3: Josh Allen, who hasn't had a win in almost three weeks.
Speaker 3: I'm just torn on this one coming off of by
Speaker 3: and is that a good spot and this isn't okay,
Speaker 3: so not a great spot there, but yeah, just give me,
Speaker 3: give me buffalo on straight up pick eems. I mean,
Speaker 3: I can't recommend put them in teachers because they're a
Speaker 3: road favor. That's not that's not the wong And I
Speaker 3: only do the wongs, as you know, both seas, it
Speaker 3: is only wongs for me. Yeah, rock out with your
Speaker 3: wong out is the way we do it. But but
Speaker 3: give me those seven points as a lean and crush
Speaker 3: your fingers. That's that Andy Dalton can cham know his
Speaker 3: old man Joe Flacco, his old man Aaron Rodgers, his
Speaker 3: old man Jacobe Brissette. This is the year of the
Speaker 3: old man bo Cephas. So I mean, come on, your
Speaker 3: fucking redheaded Stepsha'll pick one up and just and just
Speaker 3: keep it within seven points and we can get a
Speaker 3: win on the on some of the contests where you
Speaker 3: have to pick every single game, so in those contests,
Speaker 3: I'll be I'll be regrettably taking the plus seven with
Speaker 3: Carolina at home, which this has been their sweet spot.
Speaker 3: This is at home, you bet Carolina, So it's scary
Speaker 3: though it is. Uh.
Speaker 1: A couple of things before we start here. I went through,
Speaker 1: first of all, obviously I had a terrible week last
Speaker 1: week in the NFL, so I did something different. This
Speaker 1: is only our second you're runn of the BPG, so
Speaker 1: I went through and made a grading schedule priors getting
Speaker 1: less as we went on. I think so through the
Speaker 1: first six weeks was winning like if you just took
Speaker 1: every game, the BBG said, you're winning money. However, week
Speaker 1: seven it pretty much with fifty to fifty. Week eight, Longhorn,
Speaker 1: it went one in six, one in six. It tanked
Speaker 1: on me or sorry, week seven tank one in six.
Speaker 1: This is a week week six and went fifty to
Speaker 1: fifty first five weeks, You're winning money. Not only did
Speaker 1: it tank, the fucking totals, which had been killing it
Speaker 1: on the BBG through six weeks or through five weeks,
Speaker 1: went a little bit under five hundred. Week six, the
Speaker 1: totals went oh and seven in week seven, not one
Speaker 1: total hit, only one side hit. So that told me
Speaker 1: it was time to make an adjustment on how much
Speaker 1: priors that I had built in. So I adjusted the schedule,
Speaker 1: and we talked about on the money recap. There's a
Speaker 1: couple of quarterbacks. I need to adjust the schedule completely,
Speaker 1: Indiana Jones. Mean one of them, just take out all
Speaker 1: of his prior because nothing mattered from what he did
Speaker 1: in New York. It is totally different.
Speaker 3: You mean, MVP Daniel Jones. Yeah, and good call, yeah.
Speaker 1: Indiana Jones. So I had to fucking adjust a lot
Speaker 1: of shit this way. I had to fucking adjust every
Speaker 1: algorithm we had, and I think that I got it
Speaker 1: at least close to right. As I started grading th
Speaker 1: these games because everything started lining out closer to the totals,
Speaker 1: closer to what Vegas said. So just putting it out
Speaker 1: there to start. Everything's been adjusted now power kings, including
Speaker 1: power ranking on this has Buffalo even at the seven.
Speaker 1: But buckets grader at Carolina v too, Carolina, do too, Carolina.
Speaker 1: I've got Buffalo winning this game twenty five to nineteen.
Speaker 1: And for this game, I still did great and Bryce
Speaker 1: young in there because I have no data on any Dalton,
Speaker 1: but it can't get any fucking worse than Bryce Shunk.
Speaker 1: So I wanted to grade it at the worst.
Speaker 3: Oh can it not? Can it not?
Speaker 1: I mean it really can't.
Speaker 3: And while you're you talking at home, Bryce Younger on
Speaker 3: the road, because if you if you put them together, yeah,
Speaker 3: you're on the road. Can be awful at home he's money.
Speaker 1: No, he's still not good at home. He's not good
Speaker 1: any He's not good anywhere. He's not good.
Speaker 3: They score like thirty points at home.
Speaker 1: He's not good on a plane, he's not good anywhere.
Speaker 3: Sam, I I can I can tell, I can already tell.
Speaker 3: This is just gonna be a night of us fighting.
Speaker 3: Let's just let's just lean into it. So like I'm
Speaker 3: gonna this is just gonna be what it is. So
Speaker 3: I mean, go on, keep carry on with your with
Speaker 3: your handicap, and I'm gonna look up Carolina splits at home.
Speaker 1: Okay, you do that, so but I do have Carolina.
Speaker 1: The BBG has Carolina covering, like I said, twenty five
Speaker 1: to nineteen. Now home matchup with the quarterback again is
Speaker 1: Bridshung's numbers. He loses the point and a half. Buffalo
Speaker 1: is eleventh DSR. This defensive success rate, I'm just gonna
Speaker 1: say DSR, but it stands for defensive success rate and
Speaker 1: uh dropbacks. But it's not a great matchup for John
Speaker 1: Wayne either, dude. Carolina's defense is sneakily really fucking cut
Speaker 1: in DSR against the fucking pass. Now you mentioned the
Speaker 1: run game, and that was a great fucking call. They
Speaker 1: gained the reason why Carolina can can cover this number.
Speaker 1: They gained three points to the BBG to the run game.
Speaker 1: And this is why I know my justins were correct
Speaker 1: because Buffalo's twenty fifth in DSR against the run. So
Speaker 1: I was like kind of grading against This is the
Speaker 1: time of year we can like take the overall stats
Speaker 1: and look through the BBG and say, okay, are they
Speaker 1: lining up? They are absolutely lining up. Buffalo sucks against
Speaker 1: the run, like you mentioned now, their way quality run
Speaker 1: game though does gain a point through Buffalo. However, Carolina
Speaker 1: has the number one defensive success rate good defense. But
Speaker 1: the reason why Buffalo gains a point through the BBG
Speaker 1: because the bbgate grades every run Carolina struggles versus the
Speaker 1: scrambles so far this year on the on the quarterback,
Speaker 1: we know that's what John Wayne's.
Speaker 3: Gonna want to do.
Speaker 1: My question this is how much is he gonna want
Speaker 1: to do that versus opponent that obviously they should beat
Speaker 1: their fucking seven point road favorites. What motivation does he
Speaker 1: have to really lay his body on the rock, because
Speaker 1: if he really wants to go after it, they're gonna
Speaker 1: beat them by fucking twenty points. But I don't know.
Speaker 3: That he really I don't think a team coming off
Speaker 3: two straight I'm think coming off two straight losses. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 3: I don't think a team has the luxury to think
Speaker 3: like that.
Speaker 1: Buffalo, like, he hasn't really been scrambling. They've been trying
Speaker 1: to rely on you know, the running back, you know
Speaker 1: his name, I don't know his name.
Speaker 3: Yeah, James, Yeah, James Cook. But you know, you know,
Speaker 3: when you don't rely on what you would prefer to
Speaker 3: rely on, when you're on a two game losing streak,
Speaker 3: all that shit goes out the windows.
Speaker 1: And the number one DSR fucking rush defense in all
Speaker 1: of football. So yeah, I think is gonna have to
Speaker 1: run and if he does, they are going to gain
Speaker 1: a point. And do that now. I talked about the
Speaker 1: after the buye us since twenty twelve, after the bye,
Speaker 1: you're the away favorite fifty to fifty fifty point six
Speaker 1: on an average line of minus four point two since
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one. So I try to take the I
Speaker 1: try to get after the COVID year because they COVID
Speaker 1: you were really fucked some of these trends. Uh. If
Speaker 1: you're the way favorite forty four percent, not great. So
Speaker 1: I would lean Carolina here. I'm with you on that.
Speaker 1: As much as you say we want to fight, I'm
Speaker 1: leaning with you. I don't know if I'm gonna better
Speaker 1: or not, but especially with Andy Dalton. But overall, the
Speaker 1: system does great up for Carolina's to cover this game. Cover.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and as far as like Carolina does score the
Speaker 3: twenty nine points per game, at home this year, and
Speaker 3: it's and it's awful on the road. I have to
Speaker 3: add it up, but it's it's they're in the teams
Speaker 3: and in multiple games on the road. So it ain't
Speaker 3: gonna be bb.
Speaker 1: With thirteen points last week in fucking New York if
Speaker 1: you didn't catch them by the cap. Well, what a
Speaker 1: fucking connection about it?
Speaker 3: It's against the Jets, and the Jets are unbedable. You
Speaker 3: should have We should have both known that because we
Speaker 3: both dipped our toes into that. More more, more of
Speaker 3: that later, we'll get into that. Yeah, so Bryce Young's
Speaker 3: numbers aren't fantastic, but he's not a fantastic quarterback, So
Speaker 3: like it's just they're significantly better. Yeah, they're just better
Speaker 3: at home. So you're getting them, Well we're not. Why
Speaker 3: are we even talking about he's not even fucking playing.
Speaker 3: I don't know how we got off from Bryce Young tangent.
Speaker 3: He's not even playing. That's the whole point.
Speaker 1: Well and perform, Oh that's.
Speaker 3: What it was. That's what. Now, don't made me pull
Speaker 3: up Andy Andy Dalton's last few starts, because you wouldn't
Speaker 3: be so confident in saying he's gonna be just fine.
Speaker 3: If you saw his numbers the last sounds he started.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this ain't.
Speaker 3: Your daddy's TCU Andy Dalton. Okay, this ain't that.
Speaker 1: Fucking first five years of the Bengals, and wasn't that terrible.
Speaker 3: But he can't. He can do some old man magic
Speaker 3: that we've seen, Like we've seen this in the NFL
Speaker 3: this year. Just get back there and throw it to
Speaker 3: just get rid of the ball and don't kill your team.
Speaker 3: So it's kind of all you have to do with
Speaker 3: the old man. Just rely on your your weapons, which
Speaker 3: they have. Yeah, they'll be a good running game. So yeah,
Speaker 3: we agree, we're on. We're both in Carolina agreement.
Speaker 1: All right, Baltimore should cat go. We got Lambar Jackson
Speaker 1: back in the fucking folk. Oh, boys and girls, let's
Speaker 1: see on this one. I had Baltimore minus nine preseason.
Speaker 1: Vegas had a minus seven. I believe it's sitting at
Speaker 1: six and a half. So again, but the Baltimore was
Speaker 1: the other team I was higher than Vegason. It was
Speaker 1: Lawera in Buffalo, So Vegas beat me on that. It
Speaker 1: is still sitting at six and a halfn six and
Speaker 1: a half. Sorry across the board, Longhore, what are you
Speaker 1: going on there.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's funny that you started with these two games,
Speaker 3: because these these two games are pretty close to the
Speaker 3: same handicap for me. Just like Buffalo, Baltimore is desperate
Speaker 3: for a win. They're getting some players back. Obviously, the
Speaker 3: quarterback coming back, Lamar Jackson, he did practice for the Yeah,
Speaker 3: and he practiced two days in a row, so he's
Speaker 3: definitely coming back and playing. You just got to assume
Speaker 3: it's one hundred percent until until we see otherwise, I guess.
Speaker 3: But Chicago coming off four straight is it fo Yeah,
Speaker 3: four straight wins, and and they should prototypically be the
Speaker 3: team built to beat or at least keep this game
Speaker 3: close against Baltimore. But I can't do it unlike the
Speaker 3: Carolina one, where I'm yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna reluctantly
Speaker 3: go that way on that for the for the reasons
Speaker 3: that we talked about, I can't do it with Chicago.
Speaker 3: It's the running game should be able to have No yes, no, no,
Speaker 3: that's not it. No, it's it's you have a desperate
Speaker 3: Baltimore team at home, and they should be able to
Speaker 3: run and control the ball against Chicago and and and
Speaker 3: Lamar destroys NFC teams. I don't know what it is.
Speaker 3: It's it's one of those stupid quirky things. They don't
Speaker 3: see him, they're not used to his speed, which that
Speaker 3: could fuck us because like what if he doesn't have
Speaker 3: what if he is like eighty five percent? That could
Speaker 3: fuck this whole handicap if he's not one hundred percent.
Speaker 3: But but again, I just what else gonna do? I
Speaker 3: can only go off what what you know? We know,
Speaker 3: and and I'm gonna assume he's one hundred percent if
Speaker 3: he is. And the fact that Chicago it's just like
Speaker 3: the high point for Chicago, Like could you get could
Speaker 3: you buy them any higher? Right now? I don't know.
Speaker 3: I don't know that you can, So you're you're I'm
Speaker 3: selling Chicago.
Speaker 1: It's weird because again I have Baltimore high, but Vegas
Speaker 1: had them minus seven preseason. We're sending six and a half.
Speaker 3: They had this game minus seven.
Speaker 1: Minus seven. Well, so I don't I don't know that.
Speaker 3: Is this line gonna move once? Because like Lamar has.
Speaker 1: It has moved one, it's still six and a half.
Speaker 1: Literally no juice across the board.
Speaker 3: Well, but but also okay, think about that the line.
Speaker 3: The preseason line had at minus seven. That was assuming
Speaker 3: what these teams were gonna be, which was Chicago and
Speaker 3: eight win ish team and Baltimore on an eleven and
Speaker 3: a half winters team. Well, Baltimore sent it one to
Speaker 3: five in Chicago sent a four and two. So that's
Speaker 3: that's a factor that there's some adjustment there that that's
Speaker 3: gonna be factored in. Let's assume that because of injuries,
Speaker 3: that that it's part of the reason that Baltimore's won
Speaker 3: and five. It's not gonna be all the reasons because
Speaker 3: they've had their struggles, they've had their issues. Let's just
Speaker 3: assume it's fifty percent of the issues. Well even but
Speaker 3: they're getting players back. Roon Smith is coming back. Some
Speaker 3: the secondary players are coming back at some point, and
Speaker 3: and they know that they have to go on this run.
Speaker 3: They've kind of been playing for this, like after the
Speaker 3: bye whenever all the players get healthy. They've been waiting
Speaker 3: for this more man, they and they know that and
Speaker 3: this is a this is a championship at least division
Speaker 3: maybe not so much Super Bowl champions pedigree. So yet,
Speaker 3: so everything points to Baltimore in this game because I
Speaker 3: do think you're getting value. And and if Lamar is
Speaker 3: one hundred percent, he can come out there and run
Speaker 3: all over them. They won't know what's coming, and and
Speaker 3: and and to the quarterback. To Caleb Williams, he is
Speaker 3: not They've they've been winning these games without him playing well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well he's had two games and then a between
Speaker 1: good and bad.
Speaker 3: Yeah. So so I am I'm gonna land on Baltimore
Speaker 3: in this one. I like the fact that it's under
Speaker 3: the seven. I do think it's gonna close over seven.
Speaker 3: I don't know, maybe not. Maybe Chicago's just one of
Speaker 3: those public teams, like like the Cowboys, that just won't
Speaker 3: let it get to that point. You're shaking your head,
Speaker 3: you disagree. I just yeah, maybe we'll see it's We're
Speaker 3: recording on Thursday. Yeah, but I'm gonna be on both.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna be on Baltimore.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be on you, all right, Longhorn, this is
Speaker 1: the handy. This is the uh some of his handicap
Speaker 1: right here. I'm starting to spin real fast because because
Speaker 1: the gain is the room's spinning real fast. All right,
Speaker 1: So powering great on this Chicago, Bucker Great Chicago v.
Speaker 1: Two Chicago d Chew Chicago, and again this is all
Speaker 1: justin with the priors heavily diminished from last year, because
Speaker 1: that's been that's been fucking me. I mean, Baltimore has
Speaker 1: been off my board for a little while because no Lamar. However,
Speaker 1: the BBG predicts Baltimore even with all the priors diminished
Speaker 1: and so basically Chicago being good this year Baltimore sucking balls.
Speaker 1: It still has Baltimore winning thirty four to twenty four.
Speaker 1: Now a couple of reasons for that number. One, Lamar
Speaker 1: brings up very well against the defensive gate gains two
Speaker 1: points of the BBG. Chicago's twenty seventh in DSR on
Speaker 1: fucking pass defense, they're one of the worst in the league. However,
Speaker 1: Caleb be gains a point because Baltimore's twenty ninth. They
Speaker 1: fucking suck. Even when everybody is healthy, they fucking suck.
Speaker 1: Now here's the rub for me, Here though, is the
Speaker 1: running it run quality. So Baltimore gains three points, three points.
Speaker 1: This should be the game Henry actually gets on track.
Speaker 1: Chicago's twenty second in DSR against the run, now Baltimore's
Speaker 1: twenty eighth. They suck against the run. Two However, Chicago
Speaker 1: loses the point. This is just a matchup base thing
Speaker 1: through the That's the reason why we built the BBG. Say, okay,
Speaker 1: they got to run a game. They suck at running
Speaker 1: HBL run the ball not necessarily depends on what they
Speaker 1: run and how they defend it. So what Chicago does, well,
Speaker 1: that's what Baltimore defends best. And even though Baltimore sucks.
Speaker 1: Great example, when we teld you, you know, a few
Speaker 1: weeks go about you know, Kansas City being fucking twenty
Speaker 1: ninth in DSR versus the run in Jacksonville, but we
Speaker 1: told you ITTN wasn't gonna be shit because they defended
Speaker 1: that one particular run so well, same sort of thing here. However,
Speaker 1: the reason why I cannot go Baltimore cannot go Baltimore
Speaker 1: these two things. This is after the buy trends, so
Speaker 1: since twenty twelve, after the BUYE and your Home and
Speaker 1: you're the favorite fifty eight seventy four and six ats
Speaker 1: forty three point nine percent or an Amazon of six,
Speaker 1: which we're basically sitting at since twenty twenty one, is
Speaker 1: the post COVID Averazon is six point four, which we
Speaker 1: literally are sitting at twenty twenty seven to two. That's
Speaker 1: forty two forty two six percent, so even worse ats
Speaker 1: and so I can't go against those trends. I'm not
Speaker 1: going to bet into a losing number on that. The
Speaker 1: board says Chicago, all the numbers say, well not all
Speaker 1: the numbers, but all the word says Chicago. The BBG
Speaker 1: says Baltimore easily. However, my thought process is this, if
Speaker 1: you remember when Lamar wasn't there, Yes, their defense sucked,
Speaker 1: they were scoring a million points a game. This is
Speaker 1: Lamar back week one, Dusty probably not. How much are
Speaker 1: they really gonna run him? Just win?
Speaker 3: It's a fair point, It's it's it's a it's a
Speaker 3: fair point.
Speaker 1: I think Chicago can hang in in this game, and because.
Speaker 3: They do have.
Speaker 1: But the other point is Henry, Henry is gonna be
Speaker 1: a big big factor for this or he should.
Speaker 3: Be, he will be. The only reason he hasn't been
Speaker 3: running well recently is because they've had no passing game
Speaker 3: and they get behind so quickly, and well, they get
Speaker 3: behind so quickly that they can't run the ball anymore.
Speaker 3: It's he's gonna be back to old Derrick Henry hopefully, Lamar,
Speaker 3: d I, I you're all your points are well taken,
Speaker 3: and it's kind of a toss up game for me.
Speaker 3: I would never play this like like on a you know,
Speaker 3: like as a as a top three or a top
Speaker 3: five pick or anything. You might wi Chicago. We'll see,
Speaker 3: but uh yeah, it's it's I gotta think that at
Speaker 3: some point the I know the Baltimore offense will be
Speaker 3: fine with these players back, I know they're gonna be finely.
Speaker 1: But like the timing thing, the Russ factor like that,
Speaker 1: that does play a factor. Yeah, I mean sure, I
Speaker 1: mean says you're right, but that and the trend by
Speaker 1: the way I started did mention and a half total.
Speaker 1: Obviously I've got a gready going over.
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's a good it's a good overbet because
Speaker 3: Chicago's going to score. They just they have an offensive
Speaker 3: mining coach. They won't stop coming. They they should be
Speaker 3: able to have success in the running game. And we
Speaker 3: know Baltimore was school score and we just don't know
Speaker 3: about this Baltimore defense. It's been awful. I think at
Speaker 3: some point, just I'm a roster guy, at some point
Speaker 3: this just can't be awful. I mean, the Mike McDonald,
Speaker 3: the Mike McDonald to see battle and how good that
Speaker 3: defense is looking is starting to like you can always
Speaker 3: tell how good a coaches, not only by what he
Speaker 3: does where he's at, by what happens to his side
Speaker 3: of the ball when he leaves.
Speaker 1: And was awesome last year, like literally awesome.
Speaker 3: Yeah, once immediately immediately after his leaving. Yeah. And then
Speaker 3: now we're in a year or two and and but
Speaker 3: they upgraded, they upgraded on defense that they had, they
Speaker 3: had better players coming in. But it sure is fucking
Speaker 3: shown well. So the so the roster on paper says,
Speaker 3: I can't I can't tackle for them. I can't, I
Speaker 3: can't go get the ball for them.
Speaker 1: Get out there, your fucking job.
Speaker 3: Yeah, get the fucking pigskin.
Speaker 4: Uh oh, come on, I think both Stevens is going
Speaker 4: to get a win in the NFL tonight.
Speaker 3: As we're watching the Chargers win thirty one to ten
Speaker 3: sweet in the fourth quarter, Longer.
Speaker 1: Says, all the fucking Baltimore players, I need, bitch, I
Speaker 1: need for you to do your fucking job.
Speaker 3: It's a fucking job. Do your fucking job and get
Speaker 3: the win by seven points.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on those New England Patriots Holst
Speaker 1: and those Cleaveland Browns. All right on this one. Let's
Speaker 1: see add New England minus eights. Vegas had a minus
Speaker 1: five and a half. I'm gonna take the win on
Speaker 1: this one. In Vegas. We're sitting at about seven right now, Longhorn,
Speaker 1: so I'll claim the victory. Yeah, what do you got on?
Speaker 1: It's seven? Man, it's pretty there's a little bit of juice,
Speaker 1: a couple of books on the seven. But the money
Speaker 1: is still coming in on New England a little bit,
Speaker 1: so I don't know. This is one though. It could
Speaker 1: go to the six and a half by game day.
Speaker 1: We'll see. But what do you go on?
Speaker 3: Well, it was that seven, it was that seven earlier
Speaker 3: in the week. Is that what you said?
Speaker 1: It's a seven still?
Speaker 3: Okay? Yeah, another one where I'm kind of no, it's
Speaker 3: nothing like that. Yeah, go ahead. The historical trends are
Speaker 3: gonna be all over Cleveland here. This is just just
Speaker 3: a no doubt. When you have a defense that good
Speaker 3: on paper and and you're getting this many points, it's
Speaker 3: just gonna be all over them. But I can't do it.
Speaker 3: I'm just not doing it. I've talked about for a
Speaker 3: good six months now, going back to last year, Cleveland's
Speaker 3: defense is not the same on the road as they
Speaker 3: are at home, and it's not even close. It's like
Speaker 3: it's like thirty points given up on the road and
Speaker 3: like seventeen given up at home. That the splits on
Speaker 3: this defense is so drastic, you just it's it's almost
Speaker 3: like an auto play. It's auto play on them at home,
Speaker 3: auto play against them on the road. And that's where
Speaker 3: I'm gonna be. The path for victor for Cleveland is
Speaker 3: very clear in this game. Stop the run, which they're
Speaker 3: very good at in theory and certainly at home, so
Speaker 3: that should happen in a bubble, but this is this
Speaker 3: game's not being played in the bubble, is being played
Speaker 3: in New England, which means it's a road game. So
Speaker 3: it just I can't I cannot trust Cleveland on the
Speaker 3: road to do what they need to do in this
Speaker 3: game in theory, which should work. So I and on
Speaker 3: on top of that, Rabel and New England this year
Speaker 3: when they're it's gonna be this year because maybe I wrote,
Speaker 3: maybe I wrote this down wrong, but I heard I
Speaker 3: heard a trend of six or more points when they're favored.
Speaker 3: They're five and zero, So it's just this this, this
Speaker 3: train is rolling and I don't want to get in
Speaker 3: front of it. And you were, you were, you stepped
Speaker 3: away for a second motives, But it's it's basically the
Speaker 3: handicap is about the Cleveland roam holed road home splits
Speaker 3: on defense. You just thirty points given up on the road,
Speaker 3: seventeen points given up at home. You just you can't
Speaker 3: ignore it. For whatever reason, they just don't travel on defense,
Speaker 3: all right.
Speaker 1: So on this one, the power ranking has New England
Speaker 1: bucket grados for Cleveland D two, New England D two Cleveland.
Speaker 1: I got New England winning this game twenty to thirteen.
Speaker 1: So it's a no call by the BBG right on
Speaker 1: the number. It's clearly under the forty and a half.
Speaker 1: I expect both the offenses to struggle here. If Cleveland's
Speaker 1: defense can travel at least a little.
Speaker 3: Bit, it won't do.
Speaker 1: In point for Drake May, Cleveland's tenth and DSR on
Speaker 1: drop back, it's actually for for Gabriel it's plus a
Speaker 1: half a point. He's not good. But New England, we've
Speaker 1: chronicled this and chronicled this is their secondary is so
Speaker 1: fucking bad. They're thirtieth in DSR on drop back, they're horrible.
Speaker 1: They're fucking horrible. Now on the run again, New England
Speaker 1: loses two points of the BBG and that the DSR
Speaker 1: for Cleveland's sports that they're second in the league against
Speaker 1: the run. But guess what, Cleveland loses the point because
Speaker 1: New England's seventh DSR versus the league. So I like
Speaker 1: the under here. It's my favorite bet. Now. The reason
Speaker 1: why I can't get behind Cleveland though, here is a
Speaker 1: dog other than the fact that the numbers just say
Speaker 1: it's suposed supposed to be a push terrible terrible terrible
Speaker 1: trim before the bye. That's the worst spot before the
Speaker 1: buye if you're the way dog. So in twenty twelve
Speaker 1: forty three, fifty six and two, that's forty three point
Speaker 1: four percent average line of five point six and you're
Speaker 1: losing one point six points, so you're losing by seven
Speaker 1: point two points a game. Again, just like the BBG
Speaker 1: says a push. Since twenty twenty one, eleven and twenty one,
Speaker 1: thirty four point four percent losing or not losing but
Speaker 1: missing the cover by four point three points on Amazon
Speaker 1: of five point eight. This has ass whipping written all
Speaker 1: over it. But again, because the board goes Cleveland, I
Speaker 1: can't get behind the New England minus seven. But it's
Speaker 1: the only way I would bet it. I would never
Speaker 1: in a million years fucking take Cleveland's dog here. So yeah,
Speaker 1: that's where I land on that one. Let's move on
Speaker 1: those hot Atlanta Falcons. Now, I know me and Vegas
Speaker 1: are gonna be way off on this one, so let
Speaker 1: us get into it. I had this as a pickle
Speaker 1: a little off. Vegas had it at Atlanta minus more
Speaker 1: and a half a little off. So we're both missed
Speaker 1: big lely big lee on this one. As we sit
Speaker 1: right now, I believe it is. It's seven and a half,
Speaker 1: seven and a half pretty much across. No, it is
Speaker 1: across the board with no juice on either side. Oh, Longhorn,
Speaker 1: seven and a half. So I had a pickle Vegas,
Speaker 1: mind one and a half. We're sitting at seven and
Speaker 1: a half. So best if you split me in Vegas
Speaker 1: is half a point game. We've moved seven goddamn points
Speaker 1: between me and Vegas towards those Hotland of Falcons, who,
Speaker 1: by the way, I think you're five hundred Yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: make it make sense.
Speaker 3: They're five hundred with a minus tenall.
Speaker 1: Team, So make it make sense that we were off
Speaker 1: by seven.
Speaker 3: Points because you cannot factor quit. There's no you cannot
Speaker 3: build a model for quit. You you're never gonna be
Speaker 3: able to do it. And I don't build models, So
Speaker 3: I'm speaking right. I'm speaking right out of my ass
Speaker 3: when I say that. But you build a model that
Speaker 3: can factor in quit, and hats off to you, because
Speaker 3: we just saw through the years how it wasn't necessarily quit. Okay,
Speaker 3: a model can't factor for quit, and it also can't
Speaker 3: factor for incompetence at coach. Okay, And we've got both
Speaker 3: these going on right here more more.
Speaker 1: But he looks he looks like, but here's the thing.
Speaker 3: Here's the deal though, And I've talked about this in
Speaker 3: the past. As bad as Miami isn't as much as
Speaker 3: they're quitting on this coach and this whole organization is
Speaker 3: going the wrong way emotionally, mentally, just everything's going fiscally,
Speaker 3: and everything's wrong with his team. He is not a
Speaker 3: bad offensive coordinator. He will get a job like fucking
Speaker 3: that coaching offense when he gets fired from Forrest College. No,
Speaker 3: definitely not Boston College. He will never go it will
Speaker 3: be somewhere. Who because the fuck about Boston Boston College?
Speaker 3: Like that's a weird Like how about I don't know
Speaker 3: u c.
Speaker 1: L at college this week?
Speaker 3: Okay, fair enough, here's my here's my problem this game.
Speaker 3: I don't I think in a dome on a fast
Speaker 3: for whatever reason, this feels like a Miami number in
Speaker 3: a Miami spot and I cannot get there just because
Speaker 3: I don't. I don't like to go against quit. I
Speaker 3: don't like to go against Turmol. But you know, if
Speaker 3: you're in a contest where you have to pick every game, man,
Speaker 3: I'm personally reluctantly gonna be on the seven and a half,
Speaker 3: seven seven and a half wherever you get it at
Speaker 3: your contest. I hate it to death. I fucking hate
Speaker 3: it to death. But a dome fast track, can they
Speaker 3: just score enough? And like you said, against Atlanta Tea,
Speaker 3: it's not that good. So I don't know, man, I'm
Speaker 3: leaning towards Miami and the points. I would never put
Speaker 3: it in like a serious contest like like where you
Speaker 3: got to pick five five picks or anything like that.
Speaker 3: But yeah, man, I don't know. Call it a call
Speaker 3: it It just a longhorn calling his shot on a team
Speaker 3: that is quitting. I think they keep this one close
Speaker 3: because they're good, but because Atlanta is just not goingough
Speaker 3: to bury a team by you know, eight, eight to
Speaker 3: double digit points, I don't know, just that probably leads
Speaker 3: by thirty, but I'm taking the points.
Speaker 1: So you talked about a market earlier. Do you not
Speaker 1: think we're not at the bottom of the Miami market?
Speaker 3: Like it has to be and it just it has
Speaker 3: to be. I mean, like that's it is.
Speaker 1: Still how much worse does it get?
Speaker 3: Yeah, and the infighting and like can you imagine like
Speaker 3: the week of Miami Dolphins, like in that building, what's
Speaker 3: going on with the coaches meetings? And then.
Speaker 1: Like, yeah, he's a smart dude, but he's such a
Speaker 1: fucking nerd and a bit like he's he can't walk
Speaker 1: in like a Bill O'Brien in fucking commander room, Like
Speaker 1: he can't Avraibel, like he can't just walk in it'
Speaker 1: say no, the guys, you know know.
Speaker 3: What about some people are built for brilliant coordinator roles
Speaker 3: and some people are built to be to be the
Speaker 3: the CEO head coaching and he's not. But I wish
Speaker 3: I don't know who's doing. Who is the Amazon? You
Speaker 3: don't how they do the the hard knocks end season thing.
Speaker 3: You know who that is? Who is it this year?
Speaker 3: I don't. I don't even remember.
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I hope it's fucking Miami. Please get in this
Speaker 3: please get in this building and get cameras on this
Speaker 3: fucking disaster train wreck. So but yeah, I'm on the
Speaker 3: I'm on the train wreck. Plus plus seven plus seven
Speaker 3: and a half.
Speaker 1: All right, so powering is here again. Everything's been justice.
Speaker 1: It's actually no call because Miami has been so fucking bad.
Speaker 1: The Buggets are on Atlanta, the V two's and no call,
Speaker 1: d twos on Atlanta. I've got Atlanta winning this game
Speaker 1: through the VVG twenty nine to sixteen.
Speaker 3: And a half. That's an ass.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well here's the reason. So this should be a
Speaker 1: good game for pendis Miami is thirty second, dead ass
Speaker 1: last and if it is success rate against the past. Now, Longhorn,
Speaker 1: you talked about this, we did the preseason. You said
Speaker 1: great past rush or a great secondary what makes a
Speaker 1: great team and you said Miami's because they've.
Speaker 3: Got the pass rush and they don't.
Speaker 1: Well, it looks like the secondary kind of matters because
Speaker 1: they're dead ass fucking last.
Speaker 3: Now I know, but the pass rush has been non existent,
Speaker 3: like like the players that they have that should have
Speaker 3: been a good pass rush Jalen Phillips, Bradley Chubb.
Speaker 1: So that, but that, but that spoke to exactly what
Speaker 1: you said, because you said it brilliantly in the preseason.
Speaker 1: I remember, That's why I wrote it down. You said,
Speaker 1: is it the past rush they get?
Speaker 3: Yeah, quickly, so maybe they are. They are good, but
Speaker 3: it doesn't matter because they're just everybody. Yeah, yeah, I
Speaker 3: hear what. I hear what you're saying. I hear what
Speaker 3: you say, because yeah, these are good players like like
Speaker 3: Jalen Phillips, Bradley Chubb, Matthew Judon, these are these are
Speaker 3: players that have gotten to the quarterback for years in
Speaker 3: the NFL. Like, what's going on? They suck? What's there
Speaker 3: do you have Miami's Let me see if I can
Speaker 3: find their pass rushing grade here on PFF.
Speaker 1: We look for that. I just think your overall point
Speaker 1: was absolutely correct, but it just needs to be caviy
Speaker 1: on it with ef fact, like you have to be
Speaker 1: able to at least cover for a second. Now you
Speaker 1: gotta cover guys for like.
Speaker 3: A second, their second worst, second worst pass rushing grade.
Speaker 3: Oh my god, but let's go to the coverage grade.
Speaker 3: Let's see where that's at. Maybe this will surprise us.
Speaker 1: Can't be good, it's third worse.
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's just it's a horrible fucking defense. Horrible.
Speaker 1: I think, I think worse than tandem. Though. I think
Speaker 1: that you're right on your overall premise that the pass
Speaker 1: rush probably is more important. But I think that we've
Speaker 1: devalued the cornerbacks to an extent that we probably shouldn't
Speaker 1: have because you have to at least be able to
Speaker 1: cover for a second. I mean they I saw a
Speaker 1: whole thing on Michael Parsons today now that he's finally healthy,
Speaker 1: and you got like eight sacks or whatever you got
Speaker 1: in the last game to close the game against Arizona.
Speaker 1: Every sack he got was like three point five seconds.
Speaker 1: You have to be able to cover at least three
Speaker 1: fucking seconds, and they absolutely cannot do it. So I
Speaker 1: don't give a fuck if you got Miles Garrett. If
Speaker 1: you can't cover for three seconds, you can't get to
Speaker 1: the quarterback from the snap, and unless you just are a
Speaker 1: free rusher, and they blew a you know, just blew
Speaker 1: the block assignment. You can't get there in three seconds,
Speaker 1: less than three seconds, like you have to be able
Speaker 1: to cover at least a little bit. That's on the
Speaker 1: away matchup for to a terrible matchup. It loses two
Speaker 1: points of the BBG. Atlanta thirteenth and this defensive success
Speaker 1: right against the past. So they've been, you know, better
Speaker 1: than we thought they they're better we thought they were.
Speaker 1: Now the home run quality though this is a little
Speaker 1: bit surprising. They lose half a point to the BBG
Speaker 1: now Miami, which speaks to your point early that you
Speaker 1: thought this was a great defensive line. They're fifteenth in
Speaker 1: DSR against the run and they've been getting run on
Speaker 1: a lot because you gets blown the fuck out a lot.
Speaker 1: So to be better than average, that's pretty fucking good.
Speaker 1: So they ca have an avenue to hold you know,
Speaker 1: bijon two not so you know, not so great of
Speaker 1: a game. Now Atlanta grades out flat, but Atlanta is
Speaker 1: the thirty first DSR run defense. So on this track,
Speaker 1: as you just mentioned, with a chain who is built
Speaker 1: for speed, my aggie boy, this could be an avenue
Speaker 1: for Miami to cover this fucking spread because they could
Speaker 1: be able to run against. This defense has been terrible.
Speaker 1: It's the run on this fast track. They're built for speed.
Speaker 1: Everything that coach logically does is built off speed. A
Speaker 1: chane is nothing butt speed. That's where I'm at overall,
Speaker 1: I'm just waiting on the money to settle on this one.
Speaker 1: It's a toss up game for me right now. I
Speaker 1: could totally take Miami. I could buy a piece of
Speaker 1: that fucking rotten apple again and kick me in the balls.
Speaker 1: We'll see. But I'm just waiting on the Monday to
Speaker 1: settle on this one. I'm up in the air on it.
Speaker 1: I see an app, I see an avenue for Miami
Speaker 1: to cover this game.
Speaker 3: It's Pennis.
Speaker 1: It's Pennix's. She should have one of his better games.
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's gonna be fine with all those weapons. Yeah,
Speaker 3: it's gonna be like a thirty to twenty seven type
Speaker 3: type cover for Miami.
Speaker 1: It's gonna have to go. I mean, I've got it
Speaker 1: in a no call four to four and a half.
Speaker 1: It's for us to cover, which is strange to save
Speaker 1: for the dog, but it's gonna have to go over
Speaker 1: that total really from yeah, city avenue that Atlanta doesn't score.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on those damp Philadelphia Eagles. They're
Speaker 1: hosting those New York Football Giants, all right. Uh Me
Speaker 1: and Bason be a little awful on this one too.
Speaker 1: So I had Philly eleven point favorite. Vegas had him
Speaker 1: at ten and a half. Oh see, we're currently sitting
Speaker 1: at seven, seven and a half. Juice to the seven
Speaker 1: and a half though, so this one could come down
Speaker 1: to seven easily by game day, even crossed that line longer,
Speaker 1: all the money coming in on New York.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know how you can't you you gotta
Speaker 3: have a reason to fade this New York Giants team
Speaker 3: at this point of the year. You just you, Yeah,
Speaker 3: well you can. You'll have your You'll have your shot
Speaker 3: because Philly has given you nothing but reasons to kind
Speaker 3: of fade fade them. So AJ Brown didn't practice today.
Speaker 3: We'll see kind of what's going on with that. I mean,
Speaker 3: I'm sure he'll play, he's kind of a gamer. But
Speaker 3: there's just there's no way I'm betting, Like, especially when
Speaker 3: you're getting seven, seven and a half points and they
Speaker 3: already beat them this year, which you could say, oh,
Speaker 3: well they're dude, you know, they're not gonna they're not
Speaker 3: gonna beat them twice, and they probably won't. So yeah,
Speaker 3: put put Philly in all your teasers and and all
Speaker 3: that good stuff, because Philly probably will win this game.
Speaker 3: Will they win by seven, eight points or more? They
Speaker 3: don't do this, They just don't. They don't boat race
Speaker 3: people anymore. And they can't run the ball, so even
Speaker 3: if they get a lead, they can't close it out
Speaker 3: by just running the ball. So the back door is
Speaker 3: always gonna be open for whoever they play. And when
Speaker 3: you got a team like with Jackson Dart who's just
Speaker 3: you know, making plays and doing things, it would have
Speaker 3: to be a total derail, which could absolutely happen for
Speaker 3: Jackson Dart one of his He could have one of
Speaker 3: those rookie three interception games. And this is fucked immediately.
Speaker 3: Sure that could happen, until I see it. This is
Speaker 3: a team that you bet on, and Philly is a
Speaker 3: team that you can't trust to to put a team
Speaker 3: away with margin. This is an easy call. Give me
Speaker 3: the Giants in this one, all right.
Speaker 1: So power Ragings justin have Philly bucket grade though Giants
Speaker 1: B two Giants D two Giants BBG has this game
Speaker 1: grade out twenty two twenty Philly winning, so that's slowly
Speaker 1: under forty three and a half on the total. However,
Speaker 1: it's not a great game for Jalen Hurst, but nothing
Speaker 1: really is. It's minus half a point. The Giants are
Speaker 1: sixteenth in DSR, right about average against the past, Philly
Speaker 1: seventeenth and DSR Jackson Dark grads up minus one point
Speaker 1: just for a matchup standpoint, it's about even there. However,
Speaker 1: here's what I will say about this game. This is
Speaker 1: my number one takeaway in this game, other than the
Speaker 1: trends about to give you. If if sakwon, Barca does
Speaker 1: not go the fuck off in this game, Philly fans,
Speaker 1: your Super Bowl hopes are done. Just forget about it.
Speaker 1: He grades out play and again I've taken out all
Speaker 1: the priors, so this is just not all the priors,
Speaker 1: but most of the priors. So this is mostly graded
Speaker 1: on the shitty, shitty, shitty season he's had, because I
Speaker 1: know I've been overgrading him all year long based on
Speaker 1: the priors had built him in preseason, So this is
Speaker 1: just mostly based on the shitty season he's had. He
Speaker 1: gains three point five points through the BPG, which in
Speaker 1: the running game that is fucking tremendous. The Giants are
Speaker 1: horrible against the run twenty seventh and defensive success rate horrible.
Speaker 1: Now the Giants can a point for Philly, who's also
Speaker 1: horrible by the way against the run thirtieth in DSR,
Speaker 1: which is why the score comes up so close to
Speaker 1: twenty two twenty three the VPG. So does Philly cover
Speaker 1: to the Giants cover? I don't know, however, what I
Speaker 1: do know is my main takeaway, and I just want
Speaker 1: to everyone remember this. If Saquon Barkley does not fucking
Speaker 1: have the game of his of his year on this game,
Speaker 1: then this running game is broken. He's done, like not
Speaker 1: maybe done for his career, but he's like he's not
Speaker 1: gonna have a great year. This has to be the
Speaker 1: game where he breaks out and does his one hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty two hundred yard you know thing that he
Speaker 1: can do. We've seen him do it.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 1: Here's the trends, and here's why I can't even though
Speaker 1: my board says SAT the Giants, the numbers says SAT
Speaker 1: the Giants. I agree with you everything you said. Here's
Speaker 1: what I cannot and will not bet the Giants since
Speaker 1: twenty twelve if you're going on a buy so you're
Speaker 1: before the buye home favorite eighty four fifty seven to
Speaker 1: two fifty nine point six percent on an averazon of
Speaker 1: minus six since twenty twenty one after COVID twenty six
Speaker 1: and ten seventy two point two percent ats. I am
Speaker 1: not betting against that. I'm not going against that period.
Speaker 1: My board says you agrees with you, my numbers agree
Speaker 1: with you, everything agrees with you. I am not betting
Speaker 1: against those two trends, no fucking way.
Speaker 3: So we got a numbers versus trends matchup.
Speaker 1: Yes, and I'm as much.
Speaker 3: Usually Usually i'm the trend backer and you're the numbers backer,
Speaker 3: and we're opposite.
Speaker 1: Here, we're absome here. I'm I'm not betting against a
Speaker 1: seventy two point two percent. I mean, even though even
Speaker 1: though I lost on a ninety one percent probably ability
Speaker 1: last week, I'm not betting I guess a seventy supercentrid.
Speaker 1: I'm not going to fucking end. And for the fact that,
Speaker 1: like I said, this should be the Barcoll game, this
Speaker 1: should be well.
Speaker 3: He had He averaged four point eight yards to carry
Speaker 3: last time they met, which was only two weeks ago.
Speaker 3: So yes, this this is going to be his spot.
Speaker 3: If if they can get a lead and lean on
Speaker 3: him and he goes for one hundred and ten hundred
Speaker 3: and twenty, it's it's he's.
Speaker 1: If he goes for one fifty seventy five and Jackson
Speaker 1: Darthrow's three picks, well you can't predict.
Speaker 3: That, Yeah, I mean that went about thirty when he's
Speaker 3: talking about That's.
Speaker 1: What I'm saying, like, yeah, but I see that probably
Speaker 1: more likely than what the BBG spits out.
Speaker 3: Oh, then you should have bet it on a ladder.
Speaker 3: You should be playing Philly on a ladder then maybe for.
Speaker 1: A small unit. I'm not even on a small unit.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I agree with you, but I can't. I
Speaker 1: can't do it. I cannot go g man in the
Speaker 1: fucking heartbreak that they just went through, like that has
Speaker 1: to be some sort of whipping too.
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's probably a little hangover there, but they're a
Speaker 3: young team, so I don't know. It's I can't. I
Speaker 3: could see that either way. Fair point though.
Speaker 1: All right, Let's move on those SNATI Bengals host those
Speaker 1: New York Jake.
Speaker 3: M Placer bets j A t S. Place your bets
Speaker 3: against everything they do, all right.
Speaker 1: I had this at Cincinnati minus seven. Obviously there was
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow in there. Banks said at seven and a half.
Speaker 1: We're sitting at six and a half. Longhorn. I think
Speaker 1: it's still pretty consistent across the board and the double check.
Speaker 1: Who the fuck are the Bengals? Come on, Bengals, Oh
Speaker 1: are yep? Six and a half.
Speaker 3: Yep.
Speaker 1: There's really no juice either. So now they're at six
Speaker 1: at Westgate, the six at Bobato. So I'll take that back.
Speaker 1: It has moved. I popped its six, so us take
Speaker 1: it back. It's moving down, money's coming in on the jets. Strange.
Speaker 3: No, it's not strange at all because and I'm I'm
Speaker 3: actually curious to hear what you're gonna say, since you're
Speaker 3: saying that's strange because all of the trends, all of
Speaker 3: the models are probably all gonna be on the jets here,
Speaker 3: and I ain't doing it like I'm not well, I
Speaker 3: should have rolled down the trends because I heard a
Speaker 3: million trends this week. They're all on New York, so
Speaker 3: so it's gonna and and yeah there's windless, Yeah the
Speaker 3: windless yep, those are that's part of it, which which
Speaker 3: that's huge. That's that's strong. I mean, that's a that's
Speaker 3: a real trend. I can't okay, yeah, it's fine. Look,
Speaker 3: I don't give a ship like I am not going
Speaker 3: I Look, I've talked about this head coach, the dee
Speaker 3: I hire of Aaron Glenn for since the preseason, since
Speaker 3: the summer. I've I've been on this though. It's not
Speaker 3: like it's not recency biased.
Speaker 1: It's not like actually, actually since you've been I'll try
Speaker 1: to get like some recordings of that coach in his
Speaker 1: interview actually got this. Look, you're not gonna hear this
Speaker 1: anywhere else, this exclusive say FG interview.
Speaker 2: I ain't asking for the world here, I'm just asking
Speaker 2: for eight ball and two million dollars.
Speaker 3: That's all he asked for when the job he should
Speaker 3: have he should have asked for some better coordinators because
Speaker 3: he can't coach. So like an eight ball, two million
Speaker 3: dollars and the best coordinators in the league that may
Speaker 3: have gotten a job done. He can't do it himself,
Speaker 3: so it certainly would have got a job done. I
Speaker 3: don't know about coaching, but an a ball and two
Speaker 3: million dollars will get a lot of job done. It
Speaker 3: just ain't gonna get any wins in the NFL. And
Speaker 3: and look here's the deal we lost. We lost the
Speaker 3: free square in Tennessee with with that that ship. We
Speaker 3: watched that shitty head coach for almost two years of
Speaker 3: a free square, and time after time before it became
Speaker 3: such a pattern of me betting into Tennessee because you're
Speaker 3: getting a great number. Oh, you got all these trends
Speaker 3: at this number, this is the spot for Tennessee, time
Speaker 3: and time again, just pounding into it. Me myself then
Speaker 3: fell for that trap ahead of the gift. Yes, guess what,
Speaker 3: we get a fucking gift from the football gods. We
Speaker 3: have another incompetent, horrible head coach that's gonna be for
Speaker 3: at least another year. He won't get fired until this time,
Speaker 3: probably next year. You have all this time to throw
Speaker 3: away all the trends, throw away all the numbers, and
Speaker 3: say I don't give a shit. He sucks. You cannot
Speaker 3: win with the incompetent head coach in the NFL. Not
Speaker 3: to mention, they don't have a competent quarterback. They don't
Speaker 3: even have a competent quarterback. You got incompetence at coach
Speaker 3: incompetence at quarterback. I don't care what the numbers or
Speaker 3: trends say. I'm betting against New York Jets every single
Speaker 3: fucking week. I'm just doing it and I'll win. I'll
Speaker 3: go I'll go ten and two the rest of the
Speaker 3: year betting against the Jets. I guarantee you I will.
Speaker 1: All right, So I'm not even going go over the numbers.
Speaker 1: I'm just going over these trends. This is This is
Speaker 1: on the Jets, by the way, So.
Speaker 3: The pro the pro side is the Jets. Let me
Speaker 3: just before I'm glad that we're in agreement. That's why
Speaker 3: the numbers going down. The money's coming in the pro
Speaker 3: side is gonna be the Jets, I'm telling I'm just
Speaker 3: telling you right now, that's where the That's where all the
Speaker 3: sharps are gonna be.
Speaker 1: We've been there the whole fucking year. And how much
Speaker 1: money they are to long I know I jump off
Speaker 1: because of that. But this spot in particular, so you're
Speaker 1: going to the buy you're an away dogs in twenty twelve,
Speaker 1: forty three, fifty six and two. It's the worst spot
Speaker 1: before the ball like usually before the buye excellent spot
Speaker 1: forty average a lot of five point six since twenty
Speaker 1: twenty one eleven and twenty one thirty four point four
Speaker 1: percent on an Amazon four point eight and not covering
Speaker 1: by four point three points, which means they lose by ten.
Speaker 1: And I'm glad you mentioned the winless thing. I pulled
Speaker 1: that just to see if your winning percentage is several
Speaker 1: and it's twenty twelve and on and it's week eight exactly,
Speaker 1: so in other words, right, you're seven, I want to
Speaker 1: see right in the middle of the season because later on,
Speaker 1: because when I pulled it first, like week eight or later,
Speaker 1: it was a pretty good number. I was like, okay,
Speaker 1: well that counts for like people that are owing twelve
Speaker 1: or thirteen really gonna win a game something in the
Speaker 1: middle of the season, in the middle of this shit
Speaker 1: storm to twenty twelve. I want you to guess, Longhorn,
Speaker 1: you can guess straight up ats whatever. If you're oh
Speaker 1: and seven week since twenty twelve, what do you think
Speaker 1: your record is? There's been eleven games eleven? How many games?
Speaker 1: Straight up? How many games? ATS?
Speaker 3: I'm gonna say, what one in ten? Straight up? I'll
Speaker 3: just I'll give one win, okay, And god I mean,
Speaker 3: if you're I'll triple the win. So three and.
Speaker 1: Eight, that will be two and nine.
Speaker 3: Okay, so pretty close.
Speaker 1: Yes, just give me, give me the Bengals to win
Speaker 1: by a million, and the Jets will go into the
Speaker 1: week and die and the bye we can die. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's a terrible.
Speaker 3: Spot and nothing that they can do. They can't fire him,
Speaker 3: they can't fight. So so this is a free square.
Speaker 3: Take the free square for the rest of the year.
Speaker 3: It's not gonna win every single week. They will get
Speaker 3: You know what, what's their ATS record right now? Hold on,
Speaker 3: I got it. The Jets are They're three and four ATS,
Speaker 3: so it's.
Speaker 1: You know, they have won one game this year. They
Speaker 1: didn't win me last they couldn't win when they only
Speaker 1: gave up thirteen points.
Speaker 3: But but but now it's starting to set in the
Speaker 3: the the dam is leaking, the ship is sinking, and
Speaker 3: we're about to see one of these runs like Tennessee
Speaker 3: was on when they had their shitty coach of just
Speaker 3: incompetence and losing, losing, losing. So yeah, we're glad we're
Speaker 3: on the same Southern go Hey, Bengals will be four
Speaker 3: and four when they win his game by the way
Speaker 3: four and four, and Joey B technically could come back
Speaker 3: at the end of the year.
Speaker 1: I think they stick with Joey up. That's what I think.
Speaker 3: Oh boy, oh boy. I mean, hopefully he learned something
Speaker 3: like in all honesty, hopefully he sat there and he's
Speaker 3: watching and he's learning something from the.
Speaker 1: Old men, Like, Hey, let's watch the old man just
Speaker 1: delivered the ball to these two awesome fucking wide receivers.
Speaker 1: How about to throw the ball in time and hit
Speaker 1: your back foot.
Speaker 3: Fucking just throw the ball a seven yard out or
Speaker 3: a seven yard slant. It's I think if you get
Speaker 3: seven yards of Playbocephas, you're the math guy, I think
Speaker 3: that's pretty good, right, that should met.
Speaker 1: You a first down every place. So yeah, that's not bad.
Speaker 3: Figure it out, Joey B. Figure it out.
Speaker 1: Figure it out, all right, Let's go on to those Houston,
Speaker 1: I said, Houston of the age Texans, those little Sand
Speaker 1: Francisco forty nine ers. All our preseason, I had Houston
Speaker 1: a dog by one. Uh Vegas had Houston dog by
Speaker 1: one and a half. That's flipped around a lot of injuries,
Speaker 1: so that's understandable. A little three point flip there. Houston
Speaker 1: minus the let's see where they're at right now. Uh
Speaker 1: they are.
Speaker 4: Texas Texas Texans. Uh, well one and a half two
Speaker 4: and a half. I don't know, it's kind of tough
Speaker 4: the call actually all there.
Speaker 3: Some there's something up to two and a half and
Speaker 3: a half. God damn it, two and a half.
Speaker 1: This thing could be maybe going to three.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is fucking me on my, on my what
Speaker 3: I want to do with this game.
Speaker 1: But so, I mean consensus, let's call it too, I
Speaker 1: think is fair.
Speaker 3: So Houston modest, okay, while I'm doing my handicap because
Speaker 3: this was going to be like a ladder situation like
Speaker 3: I did with Cleveland last week. If you missed it
Speaker 3: last week's oh you like Sam frand this week? Huh yeah?
Speaker 3: So well, I mean it's always a bad call until
Speaker 3: it's a good call. I mean, that's just the way
Speaker 3: it is. That's why you're getting a lot of Major
Speaker 3: plus money on them when when they when they hit, well,
Speaker 3: I'll pause on that and just and just I'll wait
Speaker 3: to hear your part. But in this game, the underlying
Speaker 3: numbers for Houston are going to be way better than
Speaker 3: than than what their record is.
Speaker 1: Is.
Speaker 3: Like, like I me know, you can tell me what
Speaker 3: you say, but they really are they're not. They're there.
Speaker 3: They should be by a lot of matches. They should
Speaker 3: be a five hundred team. And they're two and four.
Speaker 3: Is that the record? Yeah? Two and four four? And
Speaker 3: San fran they're five and two And is anybody Is
Speaker 3: there anybody that watches them and thinks they're a twelve
Speaker 3: win team? No, there's not. No. So so you got
Speaker 3: you got a conflict and what these teams.
Speaker 1: Act full transparency? I don't, I don't really You're heard
Speaker 1: my right up. I'm still torn on this game. The
Speaker 1: latter thing though, just what I'm looking at the stretch.
Speaker 3: Now, well almost I almost can't do it anymore because
Speaker 3: because this this game wasn't minus one, like in all
Speaker 3: transparency I put out to clients at at A at
Speaker 3: the money line, which is minus one twenty, it was
Speaker 3: minus one.
Speaker 1: I don't know what. I don't know what to do
Speaker 1: with this game.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so just to finish mind and then I'll hear
Speaker 3: what you Last week San Francisco performance defensive specifically, that
Speaker 3: was just an all time I you know, sometimes you
Speaker 3: just gotta take your hat off. We talked about the
Speaker 3: great coordinators with the offensive guy in Miami.
Speaker 1: Solid a young quarterback on the road, like everybody sends
Speaker 1: like Pennix is not still a young quarterback in this league.
Speaker 1: His first year full of start, and he's not been great.
Speaker 1: He's not been terrible. I don't dispara the kid.
Speaker 3: But he's he's definitely better. He's better at home than
Speaker 3: on the road. But I don't care. You have Drake London,
Speaker 3: you have uh maybe the best running back in the league,
Speaker 3: and you have Kyle Pitts. They got held at ten
Speaker 3: points like that. With with the defense, it's been riddled
Speaker 3: with injuries, their best players gone. It was amazing that
Speaker 3: that was the hats off performance. Now you can do
Speaker 3: that to like at some point, these injuries do do
Speaker 3: factor and you can have a great, you know performance,
Speaker 3: you know immediately after some of these injuries, and and
Speaker 3: that's that wanes as time goes on.
Speaker 1: But.
Speaker 3: Overall it's not yeah in spurts. So like long story short,
Speaker 3: I think both these teams are gonna get closer to
Speaker 3: what they really are as the season goes on. Will
Speaker 3: it happen here in this game, I don't know, We'll see.
Speaker 3: I'm betting on it obviously, So I think so. But
Speaker 3: since twenty twenty three, san Fran this is this is
Speaker 3: the strong part of it, and wild like it so
Speaker 3: much because of the spot. Since twenty twenty three, San
Speaker 3: Fran is one in thirteen eight against the spread following
Speaker 3: a win. They don't They're not good against the spread
Speaker 3: off win. Now. I talked about it a couple of
Speaker 3: weeks ago. I talked about a couple of weeks ago,
Speaker 3: because they've been burning me because I've been I took
Speaker 3: San Fran against jack against Jacksonville, I took them against
Speaker 3: somebody else I can't remember. Coming off losses, you don't bet,
Speaker 3: you do not bet this team come uf loss. That's
Speaker 3: their sweet spot. Their bad spot is coming off a win.
Speaker 3: So that's what I'm And then in the last nine
Speaker 3: games versus a defense that allows seventeen points for fear,
Speaker 3: which Houston is the last, I'm gonna repeat it. Last
Speaker 3: nine games, and against a defense that allows seventeen points
Speaker 3: or fewer, they're one in eight ats. It's just a spot. Now,
Speaker 3: I can't ladder like I wanted to because it's already
Speaker 3: have to two and a half, I guess, so I
Speaker 3: was gonna ladder to two and a half. I was
Speaker 3: gonna ladder.
Speaker 1: There's still ones, there's still one and a half straftans half.
Speaker 3: I just don't know the payoff is gonna be that, Like, like,
Speaker 3: what's the payout to ladder to three and a half?
Speaker 3: I don't It's probably not gonna be worth it. You're right,
Speaker 3: it's not gonna be worth it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll pass.
Speaker 3: On the ladder, but this was gonna be a lot
Speaker 3: of situation, and I'll pass.
Speaker 1: I just don't like the ladder. And then here's why.
Speaker 1: So the power of grade again, everything's just as San
Speaker 1: Francisco buck grade. There's no call D two v two.
Speaker 1: These teams are so fucking close. Now I've got San
Speaker 1: Fran winning this game twenty three to twenty, slightly over
Speaker 1: the forty one and a half total, which, first of all,
Speaker 1: that total should tell you fucking everything. Both these offenses
Speaker 1: are gonna fucking struggle. Yeah, the home quarter matchup, Stroud
Speaker 1: lose the point and a half. Now, San Fran isn't
Speaker 1: good against the pass their twentieth r that's a very
Speaker 1: matchup base where what he does well versus what San
Speaker 1: Francisco does well. However, Mac and Cheese minus two points
Speaker 1: of the VPG. Houston is excellent in defense, second in
Speaker 1: DSR against the past. This defense is just fucking great.
Speaker 1: There's no way other to say it. Now, the home
Speaker 1: run quality is flat for Houston. San Fran is twenty
Speaker 1: third in DSRs. Not gonna get the run. But Houston
Speaker 1: is the dead ass last rushing team in success rate
Speaker 1: in the entire NFL. They cannot run the fucking balls.
Speaker 1: Even though San fran socks against the run, Houston can't
Speaker 1: run on anybody. It doesn't matter now. San francis aut
Speaker 1: flat against the run. Also, Houston twentieth in DSR, so
Speaker 1: that's where the weak spot is in this defense. But
Speaker 1: San francs twentieth in offensive cess rate, So I gotta
Speaker 1: think that's gonna improve, maybe if you know Siemac gets
Speaker 1: his groove on. But bastly it's weakness versus weakness, and
Speaker 1: that's exactly what my right up is. So my right
Speaker 1: up on this. Houston has two wins on the air.
Speaker 1: They're versus the Titans and Baltimore for their first game
Speaker 1: without Lamar. San Fran is the sixth overall offensive success
Speaker 1: rate team in the NFL. Houston is twenty six. This
Speaker 1: fucking offense for Houston is as our buddy Dom likes
Speaker 1: to say, fucking track or what does he say is
Speaker 1: a trash truck juice. That's what they are. But on
Speaker 1: the flip side, Houston is seventh defensive success rate. San
Speaker 1: Fran is twenty six. So this is literally a tale
Speaker 1: of strength versus strength and weakness versus weakness.
Speaker 3: Something's gotta give.
Speaker 1: I mean, I might be wrong on this one. I
Speaker 1: lean sand Fran, but only because Houston is gonna have
Speaker 1: to prove to me that they can beat a real
Speaker 1: football team because San Fran is at least real on
Speaker 1: the offensive side of the ball. They had not beat
Speaker 1: a real football team all fucking season, so they're gonna
Speaker 1: have to prove me they can do it. They're are
Speaker 1: at home, so I do understand that it's not a
Speaker 1: huge thing to me. I don't. It's the reason why
Speaker 1: I don't like the latter situation because I don't see
Speaker 1: either one of these teams being very successful on offense.
Speaker 1: I think it's a nasty you know, like I said,
Speaker 1: twenty three to twenty game, you can flip it either way.
Speaker 3: He's well, when this gets to when this gets to
Speaker 3: two and a half, then I'll probably pop san Fran
Speaker 3: into a teaser take them upto eight and a half, and.
Speaker 1: I like that play.
Speaker 3: Yeah, ugly low scoring game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yes, I love that player. So that's that's why
Speaker 1: I like Again, I can't get this. I wanted to
Speaker 1: go into this week with a strong opinion on this
Speaker 1: game because it's just two teams that were I won't
Speaker 1: say passing in the night. But again, san Fran has
Speaker 1: survived off of grit and coachy. There's no doubt. As
Speaker 1: much we love the coach for Houston we do, there's
Speaker 1: no doubt san Fran has the coaching advantage in this game.
Speaker 1: They have the better offensive coordinator with Shanahan the defensive coordinator.
Speaker 1: I wist say he's better than the defensive coach for
Speaker 1: or the head coach for Houston, but he's at least.
Speaker 3: Is equal, except and I agree, except in this particular spot.
Speaker 3: It's not their spot with the trends. The trends I
Speaker 3: just told you, Yeah, so that might neutralize some of that,
Speaker 3: and that.
Speaker 1: Probably absolutely will keep you off from betting San Frand
Speaker 1: I'm glad you told me that because I was about
Speaker 1: slamming man to be honest, just because these are basically
Speaker 1: team even teams, and I trust the coaching staff for
Speaker 1: San frand more. But that's what you just told me.
Speaker 3: Those are strong trends. Those are strong trends.
Speaker 1: Strong fucking trends. Because again, Shanahan, he's been there for
Speaker 1: I don't know six years now. So that's not Johnny
Speaker 1: come blately bullshit. That's that's real shit.
Speaker 3: So we'll be talking about this game on the Monday
Speaker 3: recap podcast for sure, because I'm I'm going in on Houston.
Speaker 3: I mean, what could go wrong? Going in on a
Speaker 3: team that can't score. I can't score, what could go wrong?
Speaker 1: But against the defensive sucks, Yeah, we'll see that's the thing.
Speaker 1: Like that Devense sucks, but they can't score. San Francis
Speaker 1: offense has been unbelievably fucking sixth overall in the league
Speaker 1: in success rate with all the injuries, but against a
Speaker 1: great fucking defense. Again, it's strength strength, weakness, weakness. It's
Speaker 1: a true So I think this number is fair. I
Speaker 1: think it's a great toss up game. It's gonna be
Speaker 1: a fun one to watch for sure. Yeah, A let's
Speaker 1: move on those Newallands Saints hosting those tamp Uh Bakers. Okay,
Speaker 1: this one, I had Tampa minus five, Vegas had a
Speaker 1: minus five and a half. I'll claim the win small
Speaker 1: win over Vegas on that one because I think we're
Speaker 1: sitting at for if I get my mouse to scroll over,
Speaker 1: I think we're sitting at it's dive bombing basically four
Speaker 1: four and a half at DraftKings three and a half,
Speaker 1: a couple of different places. But let's say for the
Speaker 1: Circa and four at the Westgate. No juice, So let's
Speaker 1: say Forest Fair. Let's call it four points for Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay as the road of favorite. Here a Longhold, what
Speaker 1: do you got?
Speaker 3: Oh both? Stevis you better get over to that media
Speaker 3: settings on the asset side because I'm feeling a little
Speaker 3: dangerous in this game going against Baker. This is going
Speaker 3: to be the Texas Telehealth dot Com danger Zone game
Speaker 3: of the week.
Speaker 1: Before you started. Okay, I'll say this Number one, Longhorn
Speaker 1: has been fucking rocks all these danger zones all year.
Speaker 1: Last year or last week I think was maybe one
Speaker 1: of two losses you've had the whole season.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: So, but number two I'll say this too. Usually it's
Speaker 1: you're betting on Banker. You're going he's your own ship.
Speaker 1: I don't like it. I already don't like it.
Speaker 3: Well, you'll like it when I get into this that
Speaker 3: this is not Look, Baker is awesome, and but let's
Speaker 3: be honest about the situation. They've been winning even when
Speaker 3: they were much more healthier than they are right now.
Speaker 3: They've been winning by back doors, last second wins. We
Speaker 3: talked about it at Naudge and they're a really good team.
Speaker 3: We like them a lot going forward. But that's going forward.
Speaker 3: We're playing this week. Mike Evans got hurt last week,
Speaker 3: so Abuka still hurt. He played, He's clearly not the same.
Speaker 3: The running back gone for the ear that hurts, That
Speaker 3: hurts big time. Buck Irvy's still not back. And But
Speaker 3: but the selling point because like all these and and
Speaker 3: here's the deal, I hate the fact that I'm going
Speaker 3: against Baker coming off a loss, like like Baker, come,
Speaker 3: We're just doing We're just doing one unit on the
Speaker 3: on the line, nothing, nothing crazy. And that's the respect
Speaker 3: that a Baker coming off a loss. Like if Baker
Speaker 3: was coming off coming into a like a three game
Speaker 3: winning streak, I might flirt with some money lines here,
Speaker 3: I might flirt with some money lines, because like that's
Speaker 3: that's when you want to fade Baker when he's you know,
Speaker 3: but but let's let's be honest. Fading him is a favorite.
Speaker 3: Fading him is a favorite is a good spot anyways.
Speaker 3: And here's the trend seven and fourteen against the spread.
Speaker 3: As a division favorite, it's just not his spot overall.
Speaker 3: You really want him as a dog anyways. That's that's
Speaker 3: just always his money spot a division favorite, that's not
Speaker 3: where you want him at all. So but again, don't
Speaker 3: don't go crazy because he is coming off a loss,
Speaker 3: so you know. And and at four am I getting
Speaker 3: graded at four?
Speaker 1: Four?
Speaker 3: You know, like that that's a good number. I think
Speaker 3: this is going to close at three and a half? Well,
Speaker 3: see is that what you're that? What you're thinking? This
Speaker 3: is at least going to go to three and a half,
Speaker 3: Like it's been dive on me open at six. I
Speaker 3: think it's dive on all the way. Yeah, so so goodness,
Speaker 3: way you can take the four, take the three and
Speaker 3: a half, don't take the threeable Yeah so yeah, I'm
Speaker 3: on I'm on New Orleans here, what could go wrong? Again?
Speaker 3: Taking New Orons? Now they are at home, so that's
Speaker 3: should that should be a helpful factor, but you know
Speaker 3: it's it's always scary when you're betting, when you're betting
Speaker 3: Spencer Raller. Like again, this is another Oklahoma matchup. We
Speaker 3: had oakling matchup last week with Spencer Raler and Kevin Williams.
Speaker 3: We got another oak glowing matchup this week.
Speaker 1: God damn Oklahoma.
Speaker 3: A lot of Oklahoma quarterbacks, too many, too fucking many.
Speaker 3: So yeah, give me, give me New Orleans and just
Speaker 3: just keep it close in the Orans. Can he just
Speaker 3: keep it close? I don't know, we'll see.
Speaker 1: All right, So power Grigrada has Tampa Bay on this one. However,
Speaker 1: the buckets are all over New Orleans. Money's coming all
Speaker 1: over New Orleans VT Tampa Bay D two New Orleans.
Speaker 1: I've got Tampa Bay winnings game twenty five to twenty three,
Speaker 1: the Old Runners forty seven. So that's a no call
Speaker 1: there by the BPG. Now the quarterback matchup for Spencer,
Speaker 1: it's flat, that's fair enough. Tampa Bay is twenty fifth
Speaker 1: and DSR against the past, so not very good. But
Speaker 1: bad news on our side is that Baker gains a
Speaker 1: point in half and New Orleans is twenty fourth in
Speaker 1: DSR against the past, so he should be able to
Speaker 1: and again just reiterate, I've taken out muscle last year's
Speaker 1: priors is what they've done this year through all the
Speaker 1: injuries and all the bullshit. So it still should be
Speaker 1: a good game for Baker. Now here's my fear in
Speaker 1: this game. It's gonna be very difficult for New Orleans
Speaker 1: to run the ball. They just had the best running back, Longhorn.
Speaker 3: Well, they had the hammer like like the thunder and
Speaker 3: lightning Kendrick Miller. They had the hammer go out and
Speaker 3: they got. They still got tomorrow.
Speaker 1: They lose half a point here and Tampa Bay is
Speaker 1: the fourth best defensive success rate rushing defense on the
Speaker 1: season so far. So I don't like.
Speaker 3: That, and I don't like that that.
Speaker 1: What I don't like is Tampa Bay gains a point
Speaker 1: and a half now New Orleans thirteenth, so not bad.
Speaker 1: So it's more of a matchup base where they win
Speaker 1: through the BBGU here for Tampa Bay. I don't like
Speaker 1: that either. Here's the other two things I don't like.
Speaker 1: This might stop me from betting New Orleans, although I
Speaker 1: do lean with you they're going on a bye Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay is and if you're going on a buy, you're
Speaker 1: the way favorite. Since twenty twelve, forty thirty four and one,
Speaker 1: it's fifty four point one percent on an Amazon of
Speaker 1: four point three. It's almost like Vegas knows what they're doing.
Speaker 1: And then since twenty twenty one, nineteen fourteen and oh,
Speaker 1: fifty seven point six percent of the trend gets stronger
Speaker 1: on an Amazon of three point seven, which we both
Speaker 1: think this line's probably heading towards thirty and a half.
Speaker 1: It's almost about Veggas knows what they're doing. And the
Speaker 1: straight up winning percentage is seventy one percent on both
Speaker 1: of those, which is above league average for favorites. So
Speaker 1: that scares me enough. I might not bet New Orleans.
Speaker 1: But everything the numbers, everything with the market says, everything
Speaker 1: the money says, says New Orleans. So I'm with you
Speaker 1: in theory, I wouldn't. I would not bet Tampa Bay.
Speaker 1: I'll say that I want to buy New Orleans. I
Speaker 1: really do. But there's a couple of things there. The
Speaker 1: running game is a problem, and then Begger. The fact
Speaker 1: that Beggers should have a pretty good game also a problem.
Speaker 1: But the fact that Spencer shouldn't have a terrible game
Speaker 1: because Sambo's defense is pretty bad against the past. I
Speaker 1: think that should be enough to keep Tampa, to keep
Speaker 1: New Orleans the cover. We've seen him at home. We
Speaker 1: just thought about him Monday. They're very fast at home.
Speaker 1: On the road, they've lost by double digits every fucking game.
Speaker 1: So if you're gonna bet New Orleans, it's got to
Speaker 1: be here, it's got to be at home. The only
Speaker 1: thing that worries me again those trends, basically with the
Speaker 1: two matchups on the running game for Tampa and the
Speaker 1: passing game. I don't know.
Speaker 3: They lost. They lost not only the running back Miller,
Speaker 3: but Eric McCoy, the center for the year too. So
Speaker 3: it's already a not a great offensive line, although it's
Speaker 3: not looking at least at least grade wise, as bad
Speaker 3: as it has in the past. So maybe some of
Speaker 3: the rest of those first round picks, they're all maybe
Speaker 3: they're starting to come in to form a little bit,
Speaker 3: so they're gonna need them for sure.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to those Denver Broncos versus
Speaker 1: those Dallas.
Speaker 3: Yeah, coming off a.
Speaker 1: Blowout, Coming off a fucking blowout there, kid, all right,
Speaker 1: I was way off in this one. I had Dallas
Speaker 1: plus six and a half, Vegas had a plus four
Speaker 1: and a half. Of Vegas gets to win on me
Speaker 1: here because I believe we're sitting at three and a half.
Speaker 1: Uh yep, across the board three a half juice three
Speaker 1: and a half though, So there is there's a three
Speaker 1: popping at Bobata three at circa actually now minus one
Speaker 1: twenty one three, let's call it three point two five longburn.
Speaker 1: What do you go on this one?
Speaker 3: Yeah? So look, I'm not a model guy. That's what
Speaker 3: that's what both Steven dos. He does. He's got the
Speaker 3: models to maybe they'll see it differently. This is just
Speaker 3: a smash spot. The way that I handicap on Denver,
Speaker 3: it's it's there's no other way for me to do this.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna be on Denver. I'm gonna wait for the three.
Speaker 3: You want Dallas coming off when they just blow someone,
Speaker 3: Now that is the that's the chef kiss point to
Speaker 3: be on Dallas.
Speaker 1: Blew out the Jets and then lost to Carolina.
Speaker 3: There you go, there you go, there you go, and
Speaker 3: this and then Denver's uh, you know, at least at
Speaker 3: least in the theory, we think they're a good team
Speaker 3: where they certainly have good parts to their team. They
Speaker 3: have there's got one part that's and and offensive line
Speaker 3: like they and you know, there's just that there's really
Speaker 3: only one part of their team that's kind of like
Speaker 3: dragging the whole thing down to being like you know,
Speaker 3: but they're still foreign to so you know whatever. Maybe
Speaker 3: he's changed the Boefis, he's changed the boephus Nicks, and
Speaker 3: then we can start getting some things going. Uh no,
Speaker 3: I'm gonna make this real quick and then let you
Speaker 3: take it. Historically, the Cowboys do not beat Denver, and
Speaker 3: I know that's a some people say that's lazy handicapping,
Speaker 3: Like I can't remember how many.
Speaker 1: A couple of weeks ago you said this seems never whatever,
Speaker 1: h I.
Speaker 3: Think so, dude, I mean, like I remember people pooh
Speaker 3: pooh on this type of handicapping all the time. If
Speaker 3: a trend goes back, you know, the last time you
Speaker 3: know who the quarterback was, the last time Dallas beat
Speaker 3: Denver Troy motherfucking Akman. Yes, so like hello, I mean, yeah,
Speaker 3: you you take it away with the model with the numbers,
Speaker 3: say I do it this way, and I've got what
Speaker 3: is this forty thirty years on my side, So I
Speaker 3: hope you're with me for I want the backup of
Speaker 3: the numbers too. Don't get me wrong, I would love
Speaker 3: that backup too. But yeah, I'm on I'm on Denver
Speaker 3: for sure.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: So the power wrecking his no call bucket grad is
Speaker 1: on Dallas. There's a lot of money coming in on Dallas. Obviously.
Speaker 1: The line coming down two no CaAl d two is
Speaker 1: on Denver. I've got Denver winning this game twenty six
Speaker 1: to twenty five, the old Runners fifty and a half,
Speaker 1: so it's a half a point, so no call there. Now,
Speaker 1: this should be a great matchup for bow Knicks now
Speaker 1: relative to bow Knicks, so don't go don't go crazy. However,
Speaker 1: the Cowboys defense is trending up since they benched Digs,
Speaker 1: but there's still twenty eighth in DSR now for Dak
Speaker 1: it's a bad matchup. Denver is number one. He loses
Speaker 1: the point and a half to BBG. Denver is the
Speaker 1: number one DSR defense in all the NFL. So they've
Speaker 1: been excellent all season long. Now, the thing that was
Speaker 1: kind of curious to me on the money game part
Speaker 1: of it.
Speaker 3: What was the what was the agreement or agreement or disagreement.
Speaker 1: So I said that the BBG has Denver winning twenty
Speaker 1: six to twenty five, which is the over runners fifty
Speaker 1: and a half. So that's a no call there, so
Speaker 1: it would be Cals covering. The thing about the matchup
Speaker 1: was this for bow Knicks again, this is for Bonex.
Speaker 1: It should be a great matchup KLAS twenty eighth and
Speaker 1: DSR against the past.
Speaker 3: Oh, he's gonna have a good game finally for him.
Speaker 1: But DAK minus one and a half. Denver is the
Speaker 1: number one DSR defense the running game, though, was what
Speaker 1: I was getting to. This is curious to me. So
Speaker 1: the BBG only gave Denver half a point to the
Speaker 1: running game and Dallas is the dead ass last DSR
Speaker 1: defense against the run in the entire league. That's very
Speaker 1: interesting with that. What that tells me is what Denver
Speaker 1: does best. Dallas is at least competent at to hold
Speaker 1: that to a half a point, because you shouldn't see that.
Speaker 1: Now on Dallas running, they lose half a point with
Speaker 1: Denver's eighth and DSR against the Denver's awesome period on defense. Now,
Speaker 1: what I rote down about this game is the Denvers
Speaker 1: beat the Titans by one score. They beat the Bengals
Speaker 1: when Joe first went down. They beat the Jets, the
Speaker 1: fucking Jets one of the games they covered by two points.
Speaker 1: They beat the Giants that took a comeback that had
Speaker 1: literally never happened in the history of the fucking NFL.
Speaker 3: They dominated the Giants in the fourth quarter, in the
Speaker 3: fourth quarter.
Speaker 1: Now, they do have a very quality win at Philadelphia.
Speaker 1: That's a fucking quality win. Cannot take anything away from that. Yeah,
Speaker 1: But overall, they beat teams that struggled to score the ball.
Speaker 1: They lost the Colts who put up twenty nine and
Speaker 1: the Chargers, who were at the time were still a
Speaker 1: decent offense before all the injuries early in the season. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and the Cows, for all their shortcomings, have played the
Speaker 1: sixteenth hardest schedule so far. Denvers played the third easiest,
Speaker 1: and in spite of this, Dallas has the eighth overall.
Speaker 1: Dallas is eighth overroll sorry w A. Denver's fourteenth their fourteenth,
Speaker 1: the third easiest schedule, and Denver has the tenth hardest
Speaker 1: range schedule left, which means they've skated by by the
Speaker 1: skin of their teeth. The easiest part of their schedule
Speaker 1: tells me slide is on the horizon. I don't know
Speaker 1: if it starts here, but my numbers say it does,
Speaker 1: the board say it does. It is definitely cals are
Speaker 1: passed for me here. It's I'm totally disagreeing with you
Speaker 1: on this one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I will just I will just slide over
Speaker 3: my twenty five year Trump card and say and say,
Speaker 3: go ahead and go against That's nothing.
Speaker 1: The fucking laugh at lad It does scare me.
Speaker 3: But again I hear you though, I mean, yeah, like dude,
Speaker 3: Denver is not.
Speaker 1: This is another stringbirds strength of wadness versus weakness game.
Speaker 1: Cols are awesome on offense. Denver's awesome on the even
Speaker 1: the cows suck balls and defense can't score. What wins
Speaker 1: what pushes? I don't know.
Speaker 3: Here's the deal. I I was high on Denver, had
Speaker 3: them picking. I picked them to win this this division.
Speaker 3: They're five and two, they're five and two, so on
Speaker 3: at the final score, they're doing just fine. But they're
Speaker 3: two and five against the spread. This is this has
Speaker 3: been a very Yeah, this is an underwhelming.
Speaker 1: Third schedule and there at s, but I have.
Speaker 3: Faith in the in the coach because I think he's
Speaker 3: a Hall of Fame coach. I have faith in the
Speaker 3: roster because I can, because I can look at it,
Speaker 3: can fucking look at the roster. Yeah, so, like you know,
Speaker 3: if bo knicks, if both Cephist knicks, I'm gonna start
Speaker 3: calling both Stephus Knicks so they can if he can, Like,
Speaker 3: there has to be some upside here.
Speaker 1: There's got if you if you beat if you beat
Speaker 1: me on this game, if you beat me on this game, you're.
Speaker 3: Allowed to the next week, or at least at least
Speaker 3: for one week, at least for one I mean be
Speaker 3: beating a team that you've beating, a team that you've
Speaker 3: won for twenty five years in their shitty defense. I
Speaker 3: don't know that that is.
Speaker 1: He was in kindergarten the fucking last time the Cowboys
Speaker 1: won this game.
Speaker 3: So man, kindergarten, missus, missus Crabtree, what what a great
Speaker 3: year that was? I don't know. You're the math, You're
Speaker 3: the math guy, and I've had beers. I don't know
Speaker 3: too many beers.
Speaker 1: If you beat me on this, I'll let you go
Speaker 1: on both seeds next for the rest of the season.
Speaker 1: I beat you on this.
Speaker 3: He's gotta stay. He's gotta stay the singular boo.
Speaker 1: Yes, all right, let's move on to those all those
Speaker 1: Indiana Joneson's.
Speaker 3: Good god, MVP Indiana Jones.
Speaker 1: I can't wait to see what my numbers were on this.
Speaker 1: I know I'm so wrong and so stupid and indy.
Speaker 1: Oh I'm sorry. I actually be Vegas had Indie minus four,
Speaker 1: vegashead of minus three and a half. I'm playing to
Speaker 1: the fucking win by the half point. Baby, We're sitting
Speaker 1: at fourteen and a half goddamn points in this dumpster
Speaker 1: fire of a supposed visional matchup long Horn. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: give you this short for me. I got nothing, What
Speaker 1: do you got?
Speaker 3: Yeah? This is this is equipment for me. I mean,
Speaker 3: of course you're supposed to be on the fourteen fourteen
Speaker 3: and a half division game. Blah blah blah blah blah.
Speaker 3: I don't give a fuck. I'm not betting on Tennessee
Speaker 3: uh until I see something from them unbettable. It might
Speaker 3: take all sixty minutes for Indianapolis to get this cover.
Speaker 3: It may it may not, it might take fifteen Yeah,
Speaker 3: it may don't take They're gonna get the cover. You
Speaker 3: just can't bet on. You can't bet on tennessee this
Speaker 3: into your past for me.
Speaker 1: Heyy one, so one and other in the NFL.
Speaker 3: There you go.
Speaker 1: We want to college football. So we're three and one
Speaker 1: on the weak, baby, let's fucking roll on that, all right.
Speaker 1: I'm passing this game completely. So yep, we won to
Speaker 1: a better game. It's those Pittsburgh singers were sus those
Speaker 1: green baby pegas. It's the a Ron fucking revenge game. Baby,
Speaker 1: all right, let's move on to Ort's see what we
Speaker 1: were at. I had green Bay plus one. Vegas had
Speaker 1: a minus one and a half. They beat me on
Speaker 1: this one. God damn okay, I was sure when that one.
Speaker 1: So we're sitting at green Bay minus three, pretty much
Speaker 1: across the board, so Longhorn, Yeah, no juice either, Actually
Speaker 1: a little bit juice, A little bit of juice coming
Speaker 1: to plus three this one. The money's kind of flown up.
Speaker 1: We might get to two and a half. What do
Speaker 1: you get on the plus three though? Let's where're at
Speaker 1: right now?
Speaker 3: Well, this one and I already got to pull up,
Speaker 3: so you don't got to worry about This is gonna
Speaker 3: be the big dig pig of the week.
Speaker 1: Pop off a piece of my dick, floppy Donky Dick,
Speaker 1: sirefu we mo dial last day.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna putsman.
Speaker 2: Dick in.
Speaker 3: MM. So get your pen raady, homeboy, because we're going
Speaker 3: big on this one. And I've got and I've got
Speaker 3: the I got the stats and the and the trends
Speaker 3: to back it up. Two units, two units on the
Speaker 3: plus three, two units on the plus one forty five.
Speaker 3: We're going big on this one. Pittsburgh's winning this game.
Speaker 3: This is a Thomas spot coming off a loss. Tom
Speaker 3: not only coming off a loss for Pittsburgh, coming off
Speaker 3: an embarrassing just got embarrassed on, wasn't it. You know
Speaker 3: it was a Thursday game, so national TV embarrassing, embarrassing
Speaker 3: defensive performance for Pittsburgh the perfect huh Yeah, well since
Speaker 3: they scored like thirty something points on his defense. Yeah,
Speaker 3: except for when they get blown out and then they
Speaker 3: don't because coming off a blowout loss, when they get
Speaker 3: to blow of points, they don't suck. Matter of fact,
Speaker 3: let's go to that trend after a loss of giving
Speaker 3: up thirty more thirty or more points twenty one and
Speaker 3: eight ats like this is just a sweet spot for
Speaker 3: Mike Tomman last six games in Pittsburgh. Hold on. Oh
Speaker 3: last six games for green Bay against Pittsburgh, not in
Speaker 3: in Pittsburgh against Prince Pittsburgh, oh and six. This is
Speaker 3: much like the the super Bowl, kid, Yeah, but that
Speaker 3: doesn't This is regular This is a regular season trend,
Speaker 3: not super Bowl. Not super Bowl because because the last
Speaker 3: time in the regular season that Green Bay beat Pittsburgh,
Speaker 3: you know who the quarterback for Pittsburgh was, It's even
Speaker 3: worse in the ape Men and Denver one. It goes
Speaker 3: back even further, even further. Yeah, the old man, it's
Speaker 3: almost dead. That's on the national No Bradshaw the last
Speaker 3: time Green Bay. Actually this isn't this is in Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3: This is the inn Pittsburgh trend. Okay, yeah, so but
Speaker 3: this game is in Pittsburgh. So I mean that there
Speaker 3: there you go. So everything points to, you know, the
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers playing Green Bay. I don't that's not a
Speaker 3: big thing for me. I mean like an act. And
Speaker 3: the trends don't really back it up. Well, because the
Speaker 3: trends don't back it up like former quarterbacks playing quarterbacks
Speaker 3: playing their former team. The trends don't really It's it's
Speaker 3: like a fifty to fifty it's not a lot to it.
Speaker 3: It just it just Trust me. If it was a
Speaker 3: big thing, I would have brought it up, believe me.
Speaker 3: So this is just a Tomlin coming off of embarrassing loss,
Speaker 3: extended rest. So they got ten days rest at home.
Speaker 3: I guess a team that has not beat them and
Speaker 3: in this building since Terry mother fucking Bradshaw was the quarterback.
Speaker 3: And green Bay's fair by three. Get the fuck out
Speaker 3: of here, Pittsburgh winning this game. Give me the points,
Speaker 3: give me the money line, give it all to me,
Speaker 3: all right.
Speaker 1: Power rank aghanis Pittsburgh, bucker great Pittsburgh. Oh yeah, two Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3: Here we go, Here we go.
Speaker 1: Five and a half is total. I've got it going
Speaker 1: under that. I've got green Bay winning twenty seven to
Speaker 1: sixteen quite handily. Okay, Now I've got a Ron losing
Speaker 1: two points of the BBG. Green Bay is twelfth in
Speaker 1: DSR against the past, and I've got Jordan love Gainey
Speaker 1: a point and a half Pittsburgh's nineteenth DSR. I was
Speaker 1: surprised they were even that good home running game. I've
Speaker 1: got Pittsburgh losing the point there also, green Bay sixteenth
Speaker 1: and DSR away running game it's flat seventeenth and DSR
Speaker 1: for Pittsburgh, so they're basically the same defense against the run. Now,
Speaker 1: this is a terrible matchup for Pittsburgh record to the BPG,
Speaker 1: but this is the best spot, like you said, for
Speaker 1: the Tom ten five and four in his career as
Speaker 1: a home dog for three or less. However, since twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two, he's four and three, agents still winning and
Speaker 1: still plus one point five eighths, fading very quickly in
Speaker 1: three and four straight up. But now he has a
Speaker 1: best quarterback once again. And honestly, it's been the defense
Speaker 1: sucked ass so far this year, even though Longhorn spent
Speaker 1: all off seats saying they literally might be the eighty
Speaker 1: five Bears. It's on video, look it up. They definitely
Speaker 1: have not been. That.
Speaker 3: It was an impost and going.
Speaker 1: Against Green Bay offense that is third overall an offensive
Speaker 1: success rate is not going to help them either. But
Speaker 1: your base played the eighteenth hardest schedule versus defense this year,
Speaker 1: so far from elite.
Speaker 3: I'm sorry. You can't just throw a dagger into my
Speaker 3: back and not let me respond like you have to
Speaker 3: give me some give me at least ten seconds of
Speaker 3: base to respond. To that fucking stabbing in the back.
Speaker 3: You just no, it's uh, look, I there's some weird
Speaker 3: things going on with the with the Baltimore and Pittsburgh defense.
Speaker 3: What do you mean tell you? They both look amazing
Speaker 3: on fucking paper and neither one has played up to it.
Speaker 3: That's all I want to say, Like, yeah, it's it's
Speaker 3: it's been bad.
Speaker 1: Overall. You know, I lean with my board and the
Speaker 1: spot with Pittsburgh and Longhorn here, but I don't know,
Speaker 1: I don't know, I've this is another one of those
Speaker 1: kind of sauce advantagement. I'm not sure.
Speaker 3: You don't feel good, you don't. I can hear you,
Speaker 3: and I can't you you. The numbers are telling you,
Speaker 3: and you don't like it. And the reason you don't
Speaker 3: like it is because you know it's a Tomlin spot.
Speaker 3: You know this ain't where you want to be, Betty.
Speaker 1: But the board also grades out to Pittsburgh too. The
Speaker 1: money is coming into pennsyl Like, if the money settles
Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh, I'll probably be on Pittsburgh and I'll probably
Speaker 1: with you. It's just I don't like the matchup at all.
Speaker 3: What do you mean if the money settles in on Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3: They opened at three and a half and it's down
Speaker 3: to three, going to two and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that if it settles there, I was granted
Speaker 1: on Saturday mornings.
Speaker 3: Okay, all right, fair enough.
Speaker 1: Gets fucking walkie and it's it's not unreliable metric. But
Speaker 1: the day before the game, that's when the last one
Speaker 1: of the sharp money comes in. But the sharp money's
Speaker 1: been coming in all week on Pittsburgh. There's nothing doubt
Speaker 1: about it. I definitely lean with you. I don't lean
Speaker 1: against you. I don't like the matchup at all.
Speaker 3: Green Bay there. I mean I know that there was
Speaker 3: hell I just had it pulled up. I know that
Speaker 3: their record is the other record pulled up. I'll get
Speaker 3: back to it. Jesus. They gotta be four and two
Speaker 3: or five and two, right, they just know they had
Speaker 3: a tie, so I know they got a tie with Dallas.
Speaker 3: So there's that. Well regardless, what I was gonna say
Speaker 3: is because they're not impressive. They're four one and one,
Speaker 3: Jesus Christ. So yeah, it's even better THANOUGH thought. They're
Speaker 3: four one on one, but two and four against the spread.
Speaker 3: They have just not been impressive. They they barely beat Arizona.
Speaker 3: They barely. They tied with Dallas they I don't have
Speaker 3: the list pulled up, but like they've had some long
Speaker 3: stretch now of unimpressive performances and now they go to
Speaker 3: a place that they haven't won since the seventies.
Speaker 1: I mean, like, just I don't agree with you, but
Speaker 1: the BBG surely does. Yeah, the matchups not good across
Speaker 1: the border for Pittsburgh versus.
Speaker 3: This is gonna be great TV. Though, to to the
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers saying, Aaron Rodgers playing his the team he
Speaker 3: was with forever. Do you remember that green when Minnesota
Speaker 3: and Brett Favre played Green Bay when Aaron Rodgers was there?
Speaker 3: Fucking great, great game? I think. Didn't Brett Farr win
Speaker 3: that game?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 3: I think you did? So, like, this is gonna be
Speaker 3: great TV. This is gonna be must watch TV on
Speaker 3: a on a Sunday. I think this is a Sunday
Speaker 3: night game, so can't wait to watch it?
Speaker 1: All right, Well, let's move on some Monday night.
Speaker 3: Up.
Speaker 1: It's Monday night football and this one has lost all
Speaker 1: of its luster long or has it?
Speaker 3: Or has it?
Speaker 1: Kansas City? I don't even want to bring the breezes
Speaker 1: line because it doesn't matter. There's no quarterback for Washington,
Speaker 1: so let's just move on to what it is. It's
Speaker 1: now twelve and a half across the board, disrespect and
Speaker 1: half points disrespect laying to those Washington Redskins.
Speaker 3: Now, like if you've been listening to this podcast for
Speaker 3: for over the years, like this is an easy call
Speaker 3: for me, and I don't care that it's Marcus Mariota
Speaker 3: because you're getting the receivers back. It looks like, uh,
Speaker 3: Deebo and mclorin are gonna play, and Mariota has proven
Speaker 3: that he's a reliable, dependable backup quarterback in the NFL.
Speaker 3: And twelve and a half fucking points against a kansasity team.
Speaker 3: The historically now ever covers these spreads like like yeah,
Speaker 3: except for playing against an inept team and the Raiders
Speaker 3: who lost all their defensive players. Yeah, just fine, if
Speaker 3: you want, if if, if Casey is just gonna blow
Speaker 3: everybody every week, hats off, give me, give me all
Speaker 3: those points. Uh, Washington's coming off a loss, So I
Speaker 3: always always like taking teams that are coming off a loss.
Speaker 3: I always look to not necessarily be on a team
Speaker 3: coming off a win that's not a deciding factor. But
Speaker 3: it just makes me feel better when i'm especially when
Speaker 3: I'm getting trouble and have points. So yeah, I'm this
Speaker 3: is a no brainer. Give me, give me, gimme, gimme
Speaker 3: all those points for Washington.
Speaker 1: All right, I'll let Longhorn take away with that.
Speaker 3: Oh oh last point in this It is a sandwich spot.
Speaker 3: You got, you got Casey coming off there. You know,
Speaker 3: say what you want about the Say what you want
Speaker 3: about the Raiders. It is one of their rivals. It
Speaker 3: is one of the one of the teams that occasionally
Speaker 3: does pop up them and beat them. So the division game, regardless,
Speaker 3: and next week they got Buffalo on deck. So this
Speaker 3: is this is like an in between cross conference game,
Speaker 3: you know, like like a big number. You know that.
Speaker 3: This just feels like a spot where they win by
Speaker 3: four or six or seven points, not not thirteen. So
Speaker 3: I'll be on I'll be on those dirty, dirty redskins.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be on it. Right. Let's see. That's it, Okay,
Speaker 1: boys and girls, that was all the wins coming here.
Speaker 3: It's not Bose. He was trying to get us fucking
Speaker 3: copyright the fuck right out of this segment, is what
Speaker 3: he's doing.
Speaker 1: Sorry. All right, girls, the time you've been all the
Speaker 1: way way before its time of the Street, I said,
Speaker 1: Pikes of the week.
Speaker 3: Oh wait, we're doing free picks. Oh, I forgot about that.
Speaker 3: I always forget about this part of the show. Let's see,
Speaker 3: do I want to go against the shitty Titans Free
Speaker 3: Square or the shitty Jets Free Square? You know what?
Speaker 3: I made such a big deal about it on this
Speaker 3: particular episode. Give me, give me those Cincinnati Bengals minus
Speaker 3: six and a half, the new free Square going against
Speaker 3: those j E t S. Place your motherfucking bets against
Speaker 3: every thing that they do. Fade Aaron Glynn and I'm
Speaker 3: on since I'm graduate six, Okay, I like that.
Speaker 1: All Right, we're gonna go with college free pick of
Speaker 1: the week. This week. We're gonna go with Iowa State
Speaker 1: minus two and a half. If I can remember who
Speaker 1: they're playing, it will be doing very well. But I
Speaker 1: don't remember who they're playing. Look, it doesn't matter. Let's
Speaker 1: fucking take Iowa State and a half. They're gonna win
Speaker 1: this game. They're gonna win this game out right. They
Speaker 1: were just came by margin. So I will State minus
Speaker 1: two and a half your college free pick of the Week.
Speaker 1: Longhorn tell about the Babilis Patreon where they can find
Speaker 1: all those winners for three and one so far this week.
Speaker 1: That kid so telling about one more. All they're playing
Speaker 1: b Why you goddamn Mormons. You ain't got a blood
Speaker 1: way there's.
Speaker 3: B yu was undefeated.
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's bring that ship, bring that to age you.
Speaker 3: Oh my god, James, and you.
Speaker 1: Fucking proved to me. Brock fucking Asmeier, whatever the fuck
Speaker 1: your name is. Quarterbacks, This is a that's a TOAs
Speaker 1: and win a fucking game.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a good game. I can't you should
Speaker 3: have had a better build up to this. This is
Speaker 3: a This is a good one. So minus two and
Speaker 3: a half at home, I always stayed versus BYU. That's
Speaker 3: a two thirty Central time kickoff. That one's gonna definitely
Speaker 3: be on one of the main screens no matter where
Speaker 3: you're at. So uh yeah, I like, look, sometimes you
Speaker 3: pick Sacred Heart, sometimes you pick uh Sisters of the
Speaker 3: Sisters of the of the Poor. I don't know where
Speaker 3: you're going, but this is a big game and I
Speaker 3: like this.
Speaker 1: But they have not pop lines yet. Yeah, if they do,
Speaker 1: if they're in my range, once they fucking.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And to find those go to the patreon dot com,
Speaker 3: Patreon dot com, slash bet Underscore FGH and look, we
Speaker 3: got a player props guy c K. He's doing great.
Speaker 3: Like if you if you like player props, if you
Speaker 3: do the pick, you know the pick things the DK
Speaker 3: the day, the daily Fantasy, go with c K. He's
Speaker 3: a good he's a good guy to go with. But
Speaker 3: both Stevens is the star of the show. He's hidding
Speaker 3: whatever percent sixty percent total, Like, it's just go with him.
Speaker 3: There's a lot of packages on our on our patron page,
Speaker 3: go post ephas he's hot as fuck right now and
Speaker 3: do that so that so that you can bust up
Speaker 3: the rest of the here. I have an NFL package.
Speaker 3: I'm looking to get over fatheron in this week. I
Speaker 3: like my card, so we'll see how that goes. But people,
Speaker 3: stop throwing away your hard earn money on a guessing game.
Speaker 3: Let the pros do that heavy litzing. So sign up,
Speaker 3: tell a friend and joining another funnel, watching football, drinking beer,
Speaker 3: and never pay a book again.
Speaker 1: Come out, damn, you can never pay a book again.
Speaker 1: Take itself