WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>All right, well, thank you very much for the award,

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<v Speaker 1>and yeah, it's great to be before so many people

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<v Speaker 1>who believe strongly in the in the establishment of life

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<v Speaker 1>on Mars.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, I think my reasons for.

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<v Speaker 1>Being interested in Mars and doing space X really that

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<v Speaker 1>they come down to basically just two two things of

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<v Speaker 1>one which the prior speaker was articulating, which is, there's

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<v Speaker 1>the defensive reason in that if we are on more

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<v Speaker 1>than one planet, the probable lifespan of human civilization and

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<v Speaker 1>the line of consciousness as we know it is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be far greater than if we are on one planet.

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<v Speaker 1>So there's that that defensive reason, that life insurance reason.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think that that's obviously a very important thing.

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<v Speaker 1>And Earth's been around for four billion years, and civilization

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<v Speaker 1>about ten thousand years, and it's only now that we

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<v Speaker 1>have this the window has just cracked open where it's

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<v Speaker 1>possible for life to extend beyond Earth. And and so

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<v Speaker 1>I think it sort of seems sensible to to take

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<v Speaker 1>advantage of that window while it's open. Hopefully it will

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<v Speaker 1>be open for a long time, but it could be

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<v Speaker 1>open for a short time. And so that's so we

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<v Speaker 1>should take action and that's that's sort of the defensive reason.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not actually the reason that I'm that gets me most.

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<v Speaker 2>Fired up about about Mars.

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<v Speaker 1>The thing that that actually gets me the most excited

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<v Speaker 1>about it is that I just think it's the It's

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<v Speaker 1>the grandest adventure I could possibly imagine. It's the most

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<v Speaker 1>exciting thing. I couldn't think of anything more exciting and

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<v Speaker 1>more fun and more inspiring for the future than to

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<v Speaker 1>have a base on Mars.

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<v Speaker 2>And it will be incredibly difficult, and they'll probably lets

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<v Speaker 2>of people, will I.

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<v Speaker 1>And you know, terrible and great things will happen along

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<v Speaker 1>the way, just as happened in the formation of the

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<v Speaker 1>United States. But it will be It'll be one of

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<v Speaker 1>those things that is incredibly inspiring.

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<v Speaker 2>And we must have inspiring things in the world.

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<v Speaker 1>Life cannot just be about solving, you know, this problem

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<v Speaker 1>or that problem. There must be things that when you

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<v Speaker 1>wake up in the morning, you're glad to be alive.

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<v Speaker 2>And that I think is for me the.

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<v Speaker 1>Most important reason why we should pursue the establishment of

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<v Speaker 1>life on Mars. Now, of course I'm preaching to the

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<v Speaker 1>advertt here.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, I.

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<v Speaker 1>Expect to hear a few objections from this audience. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think, really what matters is finding a way to

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<v Speaker 1>do it. In fact, i'll give you a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>of background of my genesis of how I got into

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<v Speaker 1>into space.

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<v Speaker 2>Sort of started when I was in college.

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<v Speaker 1>There were there were there were three areas that I

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<v Speaker 1>thought would most affect the future of humanity and space exploration.

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<v Speaker 1>The extension of life beyond Earth was one of those things,

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<v Speaker 1>and I didn't ever expect to be involved in it

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<v Speaker 1>because I thought it was the province of governments.

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<v Speaker 2>And besides which, it sort of seemed, at least, you.

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<v Speaker 1>Know, twenty one two years ago, that it was likely

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<v Speaker 1>to occur because we went to the Moon, and then

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<v Speaker 1>of course that people would go to Mars and we

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<v Speaker 1>would establishing a base on the Moon, and they've been

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<v Speaker 1>eventually based on Mars, and that sort of seemed like

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<v Speaker 1>the natural progression of things.

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<v Speaker 2>And then amazingly it didn't happen.

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<v Speaker 1>I kept thinking, well, well, it's it's about to happen.

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<v Speaker 2>And again it just didn't. Didn't happen.

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<v Speaker 1>There's mighty python skit about this. Suddenly nothing happened. Before

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<v Speaker 1>you know it, nothing happened. So, in fact, in approximately

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand and one, I saw a good friend of

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<v Speaker 1>mine in college, my college housemate.

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<v Speaker 2>Actually in New York, and he asked me what I

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<v Speaker 2>was going to do after PayPal, and I said.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, you know, I've always been interested in space, but

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<v Speaker 1>of course there's nothing that as an individual could do

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<v Speaker 1>do about that. But the question got me curious is

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<v Speaker 1>to sort of to find out, okay, well when are

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<v Speaker 1>we sending people to Mars. So after I got back

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<v Speaker 1>to my hotel room, I went to the NASA website

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<v Speaker 1>to sort of look look, look up the schedule, because

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<v Speaker 1>of course it had to be a schedule, and I

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<v Speaker 1>couldn't find it.

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<v Speaker 2>Thought I thought the.

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<v Speaker 1>Problem was me, because you know, it's simply it must

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<v Speaker 1>be here somewhere on this website, but it's just well hidden.

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<v Speaker 1>And it turned out not it was another way side

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<v Speaker 1>at all, so which was shogging.

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<v Speaker 2>So then I thought, well, perhaps.

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<v Speaker 1>The reason is that the American people have have led

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<v Speaker 1>to have lost the will to explore or with you know,

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<v Speaker 1>if if we just had more, if we've got people

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<v Speaker 1>more interested in the subject, then then they would be

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<v Speaker 1>inclined to want to do it. This turned out to

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<v Speaker 1>be a false premise, by the way, but that was

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<v Speaker 1>my initial My initial thought it was a mistake. So

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<v Speaker 1>at first I thought, well, perhaps if we can do

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<v Speaker 1>it a small philanthropic mission to Mars, something that would

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<v Speaker 1>get the public excited, then then that would result in

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<v Speaker 1>a bigger budget pronouncer and and then we could do

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<v Speaker 1>exciting things and get the ball rolling again. And and

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<v Speaker 1>that's about the time that I started talking to Robert

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<v Speaker 1>Zuberin and a few other people. And so it's initially

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<v Speaker 1>that the thought was to send a small greenhouse to

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<v Speaker 1>the service of Mars with seasoned dehydrated new cent jail.

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<v Speaker 1>They are hydrate upon landing, and then you'd have this

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<v Speaker 1>little greenhouse on the surface of Mars. And the public

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<v Speaker 1>tends to be, as they should, interested in things that

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<v Speaker 1>are precedents and superlatives, so this would be the furthest

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<v Speaker 1>that LIFs ever.

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<v Speaker 2>Traveled the first life on Mars.

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<v Speaker 1>And then you'd have this great money shot of green

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<v Speaker 1>plants and a red background, so that that that would

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<v Speaker 1>be that I thought, Okay, get people pretty exciting. They

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<v Speaker 1>get pretty excited, and so I started investigating what that

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<v Speaker 1>would take, and I was able to get the cost

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<v Speaker 1>of the spacecraft down to sort of low single ADGIT

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<v Speaker 1>millions and the cost of communications down and all, and

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<v Speaker 1>and I was able to get everything compressed except for

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<v Speaker 1>the cost of the rocket, and.

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<v Speaker 2>And so the US rockets were way too expensive.

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<v Speaker 1>Something like a Delta too would have cost sixty million dollars.

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<v Speaker 2>And I figured I needed to do.

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<v Speaker 1>To parallel, so two identical missions in case there was

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<v Speaker 1>an equipment failure, because then it could be counterproductive. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>It's like, look that fool you did that Mars mission.

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<v Speaker 1>It didn't work, and now we definitely shouldn't do Mars.

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<v Speaker 1>So so I figured we had to have redundant missions.

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<v Speaker 1>And I just didn't actually have enough money from the

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<v Speaker 1>sale of Payfal to from ice take in the sale

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<v Speaker 1>of pay Fell to actually do that.

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<v Speaker 2>So it didn't have enough money. So I went to.

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<v Speaker 1>Russia in late two thousand and one, early two thousand

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<v Speaker 1>and two to try to buy.

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<v Speaker 2>ICBMs. Right, And that's as crazy as it sounds, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>you so I guess about.

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<v Speaker 1>Thirty thirty years old Internet guy arrives in Moscow.

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<v Speaker 2>I wants to buy the biggest ICBM in the Russian

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<v Speaker 2>rocket fleet.

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<v Speaker 1>I said, I don't need the nuke, just need the rocket,

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<v Speaker 1>and they thought I was crazy. But then they also

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<v Speaker 1>thought I've always got money, so that's uh. So I

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<v Speaker 1>was able to actually negotiate a deal to buy a

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<v Speaker 1>couple of of dneppers.

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<v Speaker 2>And now at the end of all that, I decided

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<v Speaker 2>not to conclude the deal.

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<v Speaker 1>So negotiated a price, but decided not to conclude the

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<v Speaker 1>deal because after my third trip to Russia, that's about

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<v Speaker 1>the time that I realized that my original premise was wrong.

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<v Speaker 1>That it is, in fact, we do not lack full will,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly in the United States, perhaps the world as a whole,

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<v Speaker 1>but particularly not the United States. It does not lack

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<v Speaker 1>the will to explore, not in the least. In fact,

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<v Speaker 1>the United States is a distillation of the human sport

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<v Speaker 1>of exploration. Almost everyone came here from I mean, they

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<v Speaker 1>came here from somewhere else. So you couldn't ask for

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<v Speaker 1>a group of people that are more interested in exploring

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<v Speaker 1>the frontier. And so, but if people do not think

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<v Speaker 1>that there is any way to do it, if they

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<v Speaker 1>don't think there's there's a means, then it's it's somewhat irrelevant.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, you're not you're going to bash your head

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<v Speaker 1>against a brick wall if you're confident that your head

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<v Speaker 1>will break before.

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<v Speaker 2>The wall will break. It's just not gonna happen.

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<v Speaker 1>So so so that's when I started to start the

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<v Speaker 1>Rocket Company because it was clear that that we've not

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<v Speaker 1>made advancements in rocket technology. And that was the reason

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<v Speaker 1>that that we hadn't made progress, that rocket technology was

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<v Speaker 1>actually going worse. It was costing more and more to

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<v Speaker 1>send things to space, uh than than in the past.

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<v Speaker 1>So we had a negative technology curve, which is countertitive.

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<v Speaker 2>Because we're so used to thinking in a consumer.

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<v Speaker 1>Electronics realm and in everyday life improving, we sort of

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<v Speaker 1>take it for granted like it's it's those things as

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<v Speaker 1>those things automatically improve. They do not automatically improve. They

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<v Speaker 1>only with lots of effort and resources. You saw the

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<v Speaker 1>graph of the or the picture of the perramits there.

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<v Speaker 1>Egyptian civilization got to the point where to create things

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<v Speaker 1>like the great perimitive chips, but then lost that ability

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<v Speaker 1>and never got back there, and or Roman civilization went

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<v Speaker 1>went through a deep dop here. And it's not it's

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<v Speaker 1>not a given that things improve. There has to be

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<v Speaker 1>there has to be a forcing function. People have to

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<v Speaker 1>do it. So anyway, so I started started, I started

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<v Speaker 1>SpaceX and many people try to convince me not to

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<v Speaker 1>start the company. That really tried their best, and many

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<v Speaker 1>of my closest friends. I mean, if there was anything

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<v Speaker 1>they could have done to stop me from starting the

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<v Speaker 1>rock company, they would have done it. Want one, one

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<v Speaker 1>good friend of mine compiled footage of rocket fail years

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<v Speaker 1>and forced me to watch it. I said, I'd seen

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<v Speaker 1>them all, so so it was certainly, but I think

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<v Speaker 1>that perhaps missions to the premise, because when I started SpaceX,

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<v Speaker 1>it was not with the expectation of success.

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<v Speaker 2>I thought that the most likely outcome was failure.

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<v Speaker 1>But given that the thing I was going to do previously,

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<v Speaker 1>which was the the grim Mars Greenhouse mission, I expected

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<v Speaker 1>that would have one hundred percent chance of a one

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<v Speaker 1>hundred percent likelihood of losing all the money associated with it.

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<v Speaker 1>So anything if a rocket company had less than one

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<v Speaker 1>hundred percent chance of losing all the money associated with it,

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<v Speaker 1>and therefore was actually quite a bit less risky than

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<v Speaker 1>the thing I've been doing before. And anyway, so fortunately,

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<v Speaker 1>I think things weren't resentally well with with with SpaceX,

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<v Speaker 1>not in the beginning, because the first three launches of

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<v Speaker 1>the Falcon one rocket that we did failed and and

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<v Speaker 1>as what we were saying.

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<v Speaker 2>It's not it's not a good day when the rocket fails.

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<v Speaker 1>The first rockets failed only I mean it impacted sixty

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<v Speaker 1>sixty seconds after.

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<v Speaker 2>Liftoff, not not far from the launch site.

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<v Speaker 1>So me and the rest of the team spent all

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<v Speaker 1>of that day picking up pieces of the rocket, which

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<v Speaker 1>is a very sad thing, but we picked them up

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<v Speaker 1>to sort of see if we could, if would help

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<v Speaker 1>figure out what went wrong. Fortunately, the fourth launch we

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<v Speaker 1>were able to reach orbit. That's a good thing. It's

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<v Speaker 1>a good thing we were able to do that because

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<v Speaker 1>I had no more money left. So it's to Lula,

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<v Speaker 1>my wife father. She's witness to the third and then

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<v Speaker 1>the fourth launch. So yeah, so stressed out of the

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<v Speaker 1>fourth launch, I didn't even actually feel elation.

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<v Speaker 2>I just felt relief. But so it was a very

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<v Speaker 2>very close call.

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<v Speaker 1>But fortunately the fourth launch worked, and then since then

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<v Speaker 1>all of the launches have worked.

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<v Speaker 2>I hoped they continue to work.

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<v Speaker 1>And SpaceX has gotten a lot stronger, and we've actually

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<v Speaker 1>been slightly profitable for the last four years approximately and

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<v Speaker 1>should be again this year. And the rockets now are

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<v Speaker 1>much bigger, and we've we've got a Falcon nine which

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<v Speaker 1>is about a million pound thrust rocket, and we've got

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<v Speaker 1>an upgraded version of Falconine it's gonna launch next year,

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<v Speaker 1>which will be almost one and a half million pounds

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<v Speaker 1>at thrust, and then the Falcon Heavy, which will be

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<v Speaker 1>over four million pounds at thrust, which is about sixty

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<v Speaker 1>percent out of Saturn five impact. With two Falcon Heavy launchers,

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<v Speaker 1>you could actually send people back to the surface of

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<v Speaker 1>the Moon. And most people probably aren't quite aware of

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<v Speaker 1>the scale of the rocket that we're building in Falcon Heavy.

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<v Speaker 2>Should launch probably around the end of next.

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<v Speaker 1>Year or certainly by early twenty fourteen at the latest,

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<v Speaker 1>and and that I think will represent.

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<v Speaker 2>A significant im provement in rocket technology.

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<v Speaker 1>And then and then very importantly, we're also working on

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<v Speaker 1>reusability because if you really boil it down to the

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<v Speaker 1>various the crux of why don't we have a base

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<v Speaker 1>on Mars, As I mentioned, there's rocket technology, but what

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<v Speaker 1>really needs to be developed. The key invention that's necessary

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<v Speaker 1>is a rapidly and completely reusable rocket. And this is

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<v Speaker 1>a very difficult thing to do on Earth because because

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<v Speaker 1>grath gravity is quite quite high, it's right on cusp

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<v Speaker 1>of impossibility for such a thing.

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<v Speaker 2>For a chemical rocket. So if you take an expandable rocket.

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<v Speaker 1>Even after people a lot of smart people, using advanced

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<v Speaker 1>materials and uh and and really approaching the limits of

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<v Speaker 1>engine efficiency and everything, you'll typically get two to three

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<v Speaker 1>percent of your lift off mass to orbit.

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<v Speaker 2>That's where expandable rocket.

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<v Speaker 1>Now, if you say, well, we want to make it reusable,

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<v Speaker 1>we want to bring it back to the launch site,

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<v Speaker 1>it's going to survive the rigors of a re entry,

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<v Speaker 1>it's going to all the systems have to be capable

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<v Speaker 1>of surviving multiple firings and film or fatigue, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>just it's really you add a lot of mass when

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<v Speaker 1>when it happens. And previously when people have tried to

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<v Speaker 1>make a reusable system, they found that that they would

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<v Speaker 1>get some portion of the way and then conclude that

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<v Speaker 1>success was not one of the possible outcomes. In government programs,

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<v Speaker 1>of course, that the program which will continue for quite time.

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<v Speaker 2>It's funny but true. And so the real trick then.

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<v Speaker 1>Is to say, can you create a rocket that is

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<v Speaker 1>efficient enough that in an expandable form you can push

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<v Speaker 1>that what would normally be two to three percent of

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<v Speaker 1>master orbit up to maybe four percent of master orbit

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<v Speaker 1>and then if you can get really good about the

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<v Speaker 1>reusable elements, maybe that can only be cost you two

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<v Speaker 1>of those four points, so on net you would still

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<v Speaker 1>get two percent roughly of.

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<v Speaker 2>Your lift off master orbit. That's the thing that needs

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<v Speaker 2>to happen.

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<v Speaker 1>In order for that to happen, you have to really

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<v Speaker 1>get kind of strade a pluses across the board in

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<v Speaker 1>all elements of the rocket design, every little tiny thing,

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<v Speaker 1>the engine efficiency, thrust a weight, the engine, the tank mass,

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<v Speaker 1>the pressure mass.

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<v Speaker 2>At the secondary structure of the wiring.

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<v Speaker 1>Even that, the weight of the computers, and every everything

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<v Speaker 1>matters immensely, and and and but if you do all

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<v Speaker 1>those things right, then then this.

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<v Speaker 2>It is possible to make this work.

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<v Speaker 1>And this is what it has given me hope recently

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<v Speaker 1>in the last few years, because I wasn't sure whether

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<v Speaker 1>it was possible, But in the last few years I've.

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<v Speaker 2>Become convinced that it is. It is possible. Of course,

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<v Speaker 2>just because something is possible does not mean it will occur.

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<v Speaker 1>But but I think I think it can occur, which

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<v Speaker 1>is like I said, you know, success being one of

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<v Speaker 1>the possible outcomes is very important. So that that's that's

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<v Speaker 1>that's that's the breakthrough that space sex is really trying

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<v Speaker 1>to achieve because the stuff we've done last far, I

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<v Speaker 1>think is is good. I think it's it's but it's evolutionary,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not revolutionary, and we really need the revolutionary thing

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<v Speaker 1>to work.

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<v Speaker 2>So so I think over the next few years.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll see if if we're going to be able to

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<v Speaker 1>do that to rapid a complete reusability thing.

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<v Speaker 2>But but I'm actually if.

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<v Speaker 1>A place it makes I probably should sound more optimistic

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<v Speaker 1>than I. I am actually quite optimistic that this word code,

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<v Speaker 1>so I.

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<v Speaker 2>Don't want to leave any doubt. It feels my are

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<v Speaker 2>quite optistic at OCO.

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<v Speaker 1>And and and then going beyond that that that's for

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<v Speaker 1>Earth orbit, but not to establish life on Mars. I

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<v Speaker 1>think you really ultimately need to care be able to

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<v Speaker 1>carry millions of people there and millions of tons of cargo.

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<v Speaker 2>So you really need a fully.

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<v Speaker 1>Reusable Mars transportation system, which is yet a more difficult

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<v Speaker 1>step than creating a fully reusable Earth system. And then

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<v Speaker 1>I I was was really worried that would not be possible,

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<v Speaker 1>But year I became convinced that it actually is possible,

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<v Speaker 1>which was maybe be very happy. Actually, in fact, I

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<v Speaker 1>think it was there when I was pacing around the

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<v Speaker 1>bedroom late at night trying to.

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<v Speaker 2>See if this would work, and yeah, so yeah, so

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<v Speaker 2>that's that's good news.

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<v Speaker 1>Now I could be deluded, but I'm pretty Unless I'm deluded,

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<v Speaker 1>I think, I think, I think, I think we've we've

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<v Speaker 1>got uh something in mind, which which would be a

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<v Speaker 1>good Which would it be a solution that would work?

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<v Speaker 1>And then it comes to sort of the threshold of

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<v Speaker 1>what it really comes down to a cost?

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<v Speaker 2>What what's the what cost does it?

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<v Speaker 1>Does a trip to Mars have to be in order

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<v Speaker 1>for it to be a self sustaining reaction?

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<v Speaker 2>And I think it's got You've got to roughly get

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<v Speaker 2>to the to the I think around half a million dollars.

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<v Speaker 1>If if if if you have pay half a million

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<v Speaker 1>dollars to move to Mars, sell all this stuff on

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<v Speaker 1>Earth because you don't need it obviously, uh, then then

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<v Speaker 1>you could remove Mars.

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<v Speaker 2>Then I think that that would work, because.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, that's basically the net worth of of sort

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<v Speaker 1>of a roughly middle income earning person after about twenty

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<v Speaker 1>five years in the United States is roughly half a

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<v Speaker 1>million dollars. So in fact, it's kind of hard to

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<v Speaker 1>buy a house in southern California for you know, half

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<v Speaker 1>million dollars and in a lot of neighborhoods. So so,

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<v Speaker 1>but I think at a roughly that level is where

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<v Speaker 1>it would be, is where it works.

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<v Speaker 2>That's what we're going to get to.

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<v Speaker 1>And my calculations show that it should be possible that

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<v Speaker 1>that in fact, it is possible according to me. H

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<v Speaker 1>and and then so so that but there's a great

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<v Speaker 1>deal of work that has to occur and then and

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<v Speaker 1>then to.

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<v Speaker 2>Make to make it a reality. So that that I

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<v Speaker 2>think is.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, maybe, yeah, I think I think that's that

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<v Speaker 1>should be really good reason to feel good about the

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<v Speaker 1>the possibility of of life on Mars.

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<v Speaker 2>And yeah, so I think that's that's what probably what

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<v Speaker 2>I'd like to leave you with. And uh and then

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<v Speaker 2>then in the ensuing years, we will.

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<v Speaker 1>I fail more and more about what we're going to do,

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<v Speaker 1>and there'll probably be some ups and downs along the way,

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<v Speaker 1>but uhh, but but I can finally see a path

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<v Speaker 1>to to that objective. Like I said, as long as

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not delusional, I haven't made some significant error, then

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<v Speaker 1>I think that.

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<v Speaker 2>That will hopefully come as good news to people in

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<v Speaker 2>this room. Thank you,