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Speaker 1: Eight twenty nine on a Tuesday. You know what time
Speaker 1: it is. It's time for the Daniel day of his
Speaker 1: deep dive retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis to WINS a
Speaker 1: program every Tuesday at this time to talk about well
Speaker 1: usually warfare, war strategy, and what's it looked like on
Speaker 1: the ground. Welcome back, Daniel Davis. Always a pleasure to
Speaker 1: have you on the fifty five Krsey Morning Show. Always
Speaker 1: a pleasure to be here, Brian, thanks for having me.
Speaker 1: All right, well, let's start with Ukraine. I saw an
Speaker 1: article of Wall Street Journal Russian masses fifty thousand troops
Speaker 1: around Sumi, putting Ukraine in precarious position. They described as
Speaker 1: the Ukrainian forces being outnumbered three to one and some
Speaker 1: really high casualty numbers also going along with that on
Speaker 1: a daily basis. Plus, the Russians continue to gain ground
Speaker 1: and take over more land. Now looking real good for
Speaker 1: the Ukrainians right now? Is it?
Speaker 2: Well? That hasn't been looking good for the Ukrainians for years. Man.
Speaker 4: You can really go all the way back to the
Speaker 4: end of twenty twenty two where they had probably what's
Speaker 4: going to be in history. Is there two signature successes
Speaker 4: in this whole even at the tactical level, with the
Speaker 4: taking of the Kirsn city and the Kharkiv region, when
Speaker 4: they forced Russia back over thousands of square kilometers. Since
Speaker 4: that time, it's been almost all downhill in the backwards sense.
Speaker 4: For the Ukraine side, it's beginning in the twenty twenty
Speaker 4: three offensive where they were crushed in there to attempt
Speaker 4: to drive Russia out, and ever since that time they
Speaker 4: have been on the defensive, and as you pointed out,
Speaker 4: evidence suggested Russia's ramping up for a pretty solid summer
Speaker 4: offensive really across the whole front line.
Speaker 2: You mentioned that in the Sumi area.
Speaker 4: Interesting thing about that claim of fifty thousand, it seems
Speaker 4: to be that they're prioritizing the Russians numbers of troops
Speaker 4: and not so much like mechanized forces and tanks and
Speaker 4: the armored personnel carries, etc. Which implies that they're still
Speaker 4: and they're going to ramp up their preferred strategy tactic,
Speaker 4: which is to cause Ukrainian casualties. Not so much to
Speaker 4: take ground, because you're not going to take a lot
Speaker 4: of ground without a lot of mechanized forces and other
Speaker 4: things to allow you to get further down their field.
Speaker 4: But they do have enough to get up to the
Speaker 4: line and then continue to have casually, so I doubt
Speaker 4: you'll see a big movement in terms of how much
Speaker 4: territory is taken here in the next coming months, but
Speaker 4: you will continue to see a very high casualty rate.
Speaker 4: And as we've talked before, it's a zero sum deal
Speaker 4: and the Ukraine side just doesn't have men to replace
Speaker 4: those they lose well.
Speaker 2: And I was thinking that along along the lines of well.
Speaker 1: If they ask for more military hardware, then they I mean,
Speaker 1: you have to have someone to operate it. And with
Speaker 1: a declining number of people behind, you know, triggers in
Speaker 1: the Ukrainian military force, which is the direction that's going.
Speaker 1: They're running out of people. I mean, extra equipment in
Speaker 1: arms is not going to help them with their depleted forces,
Speaker 1: It doesn't seem I mean, I don't know if they're
Speaker 1: clamoring for more from aid from the United States, what
Speaker 1: NATO's position is on this visa. You giving them additional
Speaker 1: arms and weapons. But you know, back to my fundamental point, well, and.
Speaker 4: That's been my frustration, especially in the Hague with a
Speaker 4: NATO meeting and you know, all these big meetings that
Speaker 4: you keep seeing all over the television, and Zelensky again
Speaker 4: when he's making these speeches and everybody's cheering loudly and
Speaker 4: all this kind of stuff, and they're talking about how
Speaker 4: the you know, NATO's going to go up to five
Speaker 4: percent to GDP in the next ten years, and a
Speaker 4: lot of that's going to Ukraine.
Speaker 2: They're going to give them X, Y and z et cetera.
Speaker 4: The Zelensky is talking, I need air defense missiles, and
Speaker 4: I can certainly understand his desire to have that, but
Speaker 4: no one in this all of this self congratulatory parade
Speaker 4: talks about the fact that you just mentioned here about
Speaker 4: the personnel. If we give you all this stuff, who
Speaker 4: is going to operate it? Because there is a dearth
Speaker 4: of people of the front line. They still are having
Speaker 4: terrible situations where they are grabbing men.
Speaker 2: Off the streets.
Speaker 4: In Ukraine, they're talking about lowering the age of mobilization
Speaker 4: down to eighteen. It's terrifying a lot of parents, and
Speaker 4: there's a lot of people leaving the country trying to
Speaker 4: get out, especially they have sixteen seventeen year old kids.
Speaker 4: They want to get them out before it gets to eighteen,
Speaker 4: et cetera. There's just no people to continue to operate this.
Speaker 4: So you're going down a path that's going to they
Speaker 4: will lose a little bit slower if we get this stuff,
Speaker 4: but it's not going to change the outcome.
Speaker 2: You will lose well.
Speaker 1: And they've got Grandpa's behind the trigger out there on
Speaker 1: the front lines too. I mean, we're talking, you know,
Speaker 1: some seniors out there that are have taken up arms
Speaker 1: and trying to defend their country, whether they want to
Speaker 1: or whether they were pulled out of a bar, and
Speaker 1: we're told to that just as reflective a very desperate situation.
Speaker 3: On.
Speaker 1: You mentioned the five percent that Trump was able to
Speaker 1: get the or the NATO forces to contribute to their
Speaker 1: own defense, which I'm glad to see happening, and we've
Speaker 1: been footing the bill to defend them now forever. But
Speaker 1: that's a gradual process. Just because they're there and they
Speaker 1: agree that, okay, five percent of GDP is going to
Speaker 1: go to the they have to build up their militaries.
Speaker 1: They don't have sizeable military forces right now. They're going
Speaker 1: to have to acquire the weaponry and the machinery and
Speaker 1: the hardware, which is going to be a gradual acquisition.
Speaker 1: Just by them agreeing to do that doesn't benefit Ukraine
Speaker 1: at all, Well, it doesn't, and in fact, there's when
Speaker 1: you appeer a little bit more into the details of
Speaker 1: what's been claimed, despite all the happy headlines and the
Speaker 1: claims that we're gonna go to this five percent, which
Speaker 1: is a staggering amount above what they've been doing for
Speaker 1: decades by the way. Yeah, uh, then you look at
Speaker 1: the details and they're saying, yeah, we'll do another reassessment
Speaker 1: about a year after Trump leaves office. So all this
Speaker 1: congratulations and claims that they're gonna do this or that
Speaker 1: for uh, for NATO. And you saw Mark Rucha, the
Speaker 1: NATO Secretary General, just lathering up Trump one side and
Speaker 1: down the other, praising him in public and saying all
Speaker 1: these wonderful things. But called me cynical, But I think
Speaker 1: that a lot of these European leaders have no intention
Speaker 1: to ever meet five percent, But they just want to
Speaker 1: get Trump off the stage into well they can get
Speaker 1: a more amenable president maybe that might not be as
Speaker 1: concerned as he is about, you know, not doing more
Speaker 1: than our share and allowing them not to.
Speaker 2: So I just called me skeptical. We'll see how it
Speaker 2: works out.
Speaker 4: Yeah, but you're talking tim years and they have all
Speaker 4: their own domestic economic issues. There's gonna be a lot
Speaker 4: of elections.
Speaker 2: Between now and then.
Speaker 1: I'm just put me in the will see camp. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm with you wholeheartedly on that. I'm Jaden and cinecal
Speaker 1: about most everything. So yeah, I'm gonna wait and keep
Speaker 1: my popcorn out, wait to see what they actually do.
Speaker 1: And let's face it, yeah, they might have conceded a
Speaker 1: Trump's demands at least on paper, just to sort of
Speaker 1: get them in the room with him when he hit
Speaker 1: sits down with him and talks about tariffs. You know,
Speaker 1: it's like, you don't want to be in a bad
Speaker 1: position visa v. Trump if you have to negotiate with him.
Speaker 1: All right, let's pivot over to the situation in around
Speaker 1: is in Israel, I personally have no idea how much
Speaker 1: damage was done to the Irani nuclear facilities. I haven't
Speaker 1: been in there. I think people are still struggling over
Speaker 1: whether or not it's been damaged for months or years.
Speaker 1: I guess the significant takeaway from me is at least
Speaker 1: there's a ceasefire and they're not dropping bombs on each
Speaker 1: other and killing each other. Right now?
Speaker 2: Do you see that lasting?
Speaker 1: I mean, some of the statements from the Iranian officials
Speaker 1: that are still alive or a little bit troubling, most
Speaker 1: notably the factois that was issued on Trump and net
Speaker 1: and Yahoo the other day that that's not a step
Speaker 1: in the right direction. But whatever, But how do you
Speaker 1: see this?
Speaker 4: Yeah, Frankly, you have those kinds of statements coming from
Speaker 4: all three parties, the US, Israel, and Iran. So in
Speaker 4: my view, this is nothing but a pause because all
Speaker 4: three parties needed it. We needed it because especially with
Speaker 4: what we're still trying to do with Ukraine and what
Speaker 4: we had tried to do in the Red Sea, and
Speaker 4: then now with this, we didn't have enough air defensive
Speaker 4: interceptor missiles or offensive missiles to maintain a steady state
Speaker 4: offensive that could have lasted many months. For example, between
Speaker 4: Iran and Israel. Israel obviously was running short on interceptor missiles.
Speaker 4: They'd been firing, you know, for a long time here,
Speaker 4: and now they stepped up, and you know, the Iranian
Speaker 4: show that they had a significant capacity for missiles despite
Speaker 4: what some may have believed. I think you and I
Speaker 4: have been talking on this show for a long time
Speaker 4: that Iran did have the capability to penetrate the iron
Speaker 4: DOILM system, and now they've proven it and Israel doesn't
Speaker 4: have the capacity to endure that kind of sustained hit,
Speaker 4: and they've never suffered this in there our history to
Speaker 4: the level they have here, and they can't sustain it.
Speaker 4: Iran also couldn't sustain what they were enduring because they
Speaker 4: basically had lost their air defense system, so the Israeli
Speaker 4: jets were flying with virtual impunity around with the well.
Speaker 2: So yeah, so the bottom line, everybody needed a pause.
Speaker 4: But nobody has changed their position, nothing has been accomplished,
Speaker 4: so as far as I can see, we're just waiting
Speaker 4: for it to restart.
Speaker 1: Okay, And I guess given the incredible uh Israeli intelligence,
Speaker 1: we've got to give them props for you know, sneaking
Speaker 1: in and setting everything up for this this strike that
Speaker 1: they did. I mean, it seems to me that's changed
Speaker 1: the whole nature of warfare when you consider DRNE technology
Speaker 1: and how you know, moving in and hiding things close
Speaker 1: to the targets is an achievable objective. But don't you
Speaker 1: think given these rocket batteries, these missile batteries, I would
Speaker 1: argue they take up some large space that Iranian intelligence
Speaker 1: or Israeli intelligence would know where they are. So these
Speaker 1: this open air space that they were able to get
Speaker 1: and achieve that. It just seems to invite launches of
Speaker 1: more air strikes to blow up the very missiles that
Speaker 1: they can't shoot down once they arrived in Israeli airspace.
Speaker 4: Well, they certainly wanted to do that, but Iran for
Speaker 4: decades has been well aware that if they got into
Speaker 4: a fight with Israel, that this is how the fight
Speaker 4: would be done. So they put very few of their
Speaker 4: launchers out in the open to be seen or like
Speaker 4: in buildings that where it can be easily identified in
Speaker 4: the building blown up, So they've all been the majority
Speaker 4: have been underground where they remain. So they have the
Speaker 4: situation where like in actually North Korea has done this
Speaker 4: for many decades and that may be where they originated.
Speaker 4: The idea is that there is like you know, these
Speaker 4: hardened caves and then the blast doors will open, the
Speaker 4: launcher will come out, it will fire's load, and then
Speaker 4: it'll go back in there. So unless you have a
Speaker 4: plane in the air just looking or a drone of
Speaker 4: some sort that can have a target of opportunity in minutes,
Speaker 4: you can't get up there before the thing's back in
Speaker 4: its container.
Speaker 2: So it's very very difficult to do that, and.
Speaker 4: We don't even know how many missiles and launchers Iran
Speaker 4: actually has. You know, I saw some people claiming that
Speaker 4: forty percent of the launchers had been destroyed, because that
Speaker 4: seems to be the key issue. You can have a
Speaker 4: million missiles, but if you don't have any launchers, it's meaningless.
Speaker 4: I don't think anyone really knows how many launchers. They
Speaker 4: have to know what percentage has been the damage, so
Speaker 4: I would not expect that that's going to go away
Speaker 4: anytime soon.
Speaker 1: And I imagine they're spread far and wide geographically too,
Speaker 1: so absolutely fair enough. Retire with the Colonel Daniel Davis.
Speaker 1: Always a real pleasure having on the program. I'll encourage
Speaker 1: my listeners to search for your podcast, Daniel Davis Deep
Speaker 1: Dive and as always, I'm looking forward to next Tuesday
Speaker 1: in another discussion, Man, I already am too, Brian, Thanks very much,
Speaker 1: Take care, brother, have a great week. Eight forty fifty
Speaker 1: five kr SE detalk station.
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Speaker 2: In the podcast,