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<v Speaker 1>Ken and nine first warning weatherfork casts get the rain

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<v Speaker 1>this morning, it'll clear up later light at least by

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<v Speaker 1>dinner time. They're saying eighty four today is high overnight

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<v Speaker 1>cloudy in seventy two eighty five of the high Tomorrow

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<v Speaker 1>is sunny sky for the most part, clear over nine

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<v Speaker 1>sixty four and a mostly sunny Thursday with a high

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<v Speaker 1>of eighty nine seventy four. Right now, traffic time from.

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<v Speaker 2>The UCL Traffic Center.

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<v Speaker 3>The University of Cincinnati Cancer Center hands the most comprehensive

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<v Speaker 3>blood cancer center in the nation. The future of cancer

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<v Speaker 3>care is here called five one, three, five eighty five

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<v Speaker 3>u SECC traffic's.

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<v Speaker 2>Settling down just a bit.

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<v Speaker 3>Northbound seventy five make it an extra ten minutes out

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<v Speaker 3>of Erlinger into Town. Southbound two seventy five continues slow

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<v Speaker 3>at the Carrol Cropper Bridge, So does these found seventy

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<v Speaker 3>four approaching to seventy five in Miami Town and southbound

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<v Speaker 3>seventy one from Fifer Pass to Red Thank Chuck Ingramot

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<v Speaker 3>fifty five krra Zee the talk station.

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<v Speaker 1>Eight twenty nine on a Tuesday. You know what time

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<v Speaker 1>it is. It's time for the Daniel day of his

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<v Speaker 1>deep dive retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis to WINS a

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<v Speaker 1>program every Tuesday at this time to talk about well

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<v Speaker 1>usually warfare, war strategy, and what's it looked like on

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<v Speaker 1>the ground. Welcome back, Daniel Davis. Always a pleasure to

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<v Speaker 1>have you on the fifty five Krsey Morning Show. Always

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<v Speaker 1>a pleasure to be here, Brian, thanks for having me.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, well, let's start with Ukraine. I saw an

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<v Speaker 1>article of Wall Street Journal Russian masses fifty thousand troops

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<v Speaker 1>around Sumi, putting Ukraine in precarious position. They described as

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<v Speaker 1>the Ukrainian forces being outnumbered three to one and some

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<v Speaker 1>really high casualty numbers also going along with that on

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<v Speaker 1>a daily basis. Plus, the Russians continue to gain ground

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<v Speaker 1>and take over more land. Now looking real good for

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<v Speaker 1>the Ukrainians right now? Is it?

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<v Speaker 2>Well? That hasn't been looking good for the Ukrainians for years. Man.

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<v Speaker 4>You can really go all the way back to the

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<v Speaker 4>end of twenty twenty two where they had probably what's

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<v Speaker 4>going to be in history. Is there two signature successes

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<v Speaker 4>in this whole even at the tactical level, with the

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<v Speaker 4>taking of the Kirsn city and the Kharkiv region, when

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<v Speaker 4>they forced Russia back over thousands of square kilometers. Since

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<v Speaker 4>that time, it's been almost all downhill in the backwards sense.

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<v Speaker 4>For the Ukraine side, it's beginning in the twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 4>three offensive where they were crushed in there to attempt

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<v Speaker 4>to drive Russia out, and ever since that time they

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<v Speaker 4>have been on the defensive, and as you pointed out,

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<v Speaker 4>evidence suggested Russia's ramping up for a pretty solid summer

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<v Speaker 4>offensive really across the whole front line.

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<v Speaker 2>You mentioned that in the Sumi area.

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<v Speaker 4>Interesting thing about that claim of fifty thousand, it seems

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<v Speaker 4>to be that they're prioritizing the Russians numbers of troops

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<v Speaker 4>and not so much like mechanized forces and tanks and

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<v Speaker 4>the armored personnel carries, etc. Which implies that they're still

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<v Speaker 4>and they're going to ramp up their preferred strategy tactic,

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<v Speaker 4>which is to cause Ukrainian casualties. Not so much to

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<v Speaker 4>take ground, because you're not going to take a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of ground without a lot of mechanized forces and other

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<v Speaker 4>things to allow you to get further down their field.

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<v Speaker 4>But they do have enough to get up to the

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<v Speaker 4>line and then continue to have casually, so I doubt

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<v Speaker 4>you'll see a big movement in terms of how much

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<v Speaker 4>territory is taken here in the next coming months, but

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<v Speaker 4>you will continue to see a very high casualty rate.

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<v Speaker 4>And as we've talked before, it's a zero sum deal

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<v Speaker 4>and the Ukraine side just doesn't have men to replace

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<v Speaker 4>those they lose well.

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<v Speaker 2>And I was thinking that along along the lines of well.

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<v Speaker 1>If they ask for more military hardware, then they I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>you have to have someone to operate it. And with

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<v Speaker 1>a declining number of people behind, you know, triggers in

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<v Speaker 1>the Ukrainian military force, which is the direction that's going.

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<v Speaker 1>They're running out of people. I mean, extra equipment in

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<v Speaker 1>arms is not going to help them with their depleted forces,

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<v Speaker 1>It doesn't seem I mean, I don't know if they're

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<v Speaker 1>clamoring for more from aid from the United States, what

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<v Speaker 1>NATO's position is on this visa. You giving them additional

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<v Speaker 1>arms and weapons. But you know, back to my fundamental point, well, and.

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<v Speaker 4>That's been my frustration, especially in the Hague with a

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<v Speaker 4>NATO meeting and you know, all these big meetings that

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<v Speaker 4>you keep seeing all over the television, and Zelensky again

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<v Speaker 4>when he's making these speeches and everybody's cheering loudly and

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<v Speaker 4>all this kind of stuff, and they're talking about how

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<v Speaker 4>the you know, NATO's going to go up to five

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<v Speaker 4>percent to GDP in the next ten years, and a

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<v Speaker 4>lot of that's going to Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 2>They're going to give them X, Y and z et cetera.

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<v Speaker 4>The Zelensky is talking, I need air defense missiles, and

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<v Speaker 4>I can certainly understand his desire to have that, but

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<v Speaker 4>no one in this all of this self congratulatory parade

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<v Speaker 4>talks about the fact that you just mentioned here about

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<v Speaker 4>the personnel. If we give you all this stuff, who

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<v Speaker 4>is going to operate it? Because there is a dearth

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<v Speaker 4>of people of the front line. They still are having

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<v Speaker 4>terrible situations where they are grabbing men.

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<v Speaker 2>Off the streets.

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<v Speaker 4>In Ukraine, they're talking about lowering the age of mobilization

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<v Speaker 4>down to eighteen. It's terrifying a lot of parents, and

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<v Speaker 4>there's a lot of people leaving the country trying to

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<v Speaker 4>get out, especially they have sixteen seventeen year old kids.

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<v Speaker 4>They want to get them out before it gets to eighteen,

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<v Speaker 4>et cetera. There's just no people to continue to operate this.

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<v Speaker 4>So you're going down a path that's going to they

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<v Speaker 4>will lose a little bit slower if we get this stuff,

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<v Speaker 4>but it's not going to change the outcome.

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<v Speaker 2>You will lose well.

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<v Speaker 1>And they've got Grandpa's behind the trigger out there on

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<v Speaker 1>the front lines too. I mean, we're talking, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>some seniors out there that are have taken up arms

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<v Speaker 1>and trying to defend their country, whether they want to

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<v Speaker 1>or whether they were pulled out of a bar, and

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<v Speaker 1>we're told to that just as reflective a very desperate situation.

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<v Speaker 3>On.

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<v Speaker 1>You mentioned the five percent that Trump was able to

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<v Speaker 1>get the or the NATO forces to contribute to their

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<v Speaker 1>own defense, which I'm glad to see happening, and we've

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<v Speaker 1>been footing the bill to defend them now forever. But

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<v Speaker 1>that's a gradual process. Just because they're there and they

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<v Speaker 1>agree that, okay, five percent of GDP is going to

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<v Speaker 1>go to the they have to build up their militaries.

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<v Speaker 1>They don't have sizeable military forces right now. They're going

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<v Speaker 1>to have to acquire the weaponry and the machinery and

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<v Speaker 1>the hardware, which is going to be a gradual acquisition.

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<v Speaker 1>Just by them agreeing to do that doesn't benefit Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>at all, Well, it doesn't, and in fact, there's when

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<v Speaker 1>you appeer a little bit more into the details of

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<v Speaker 1>what's been claimed, despite all the happy headlines and the

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<v Speaker 1>claims that we're gonna go to this five percent, which

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<v Speaker 1>is a staggering amount above what they've been doing for

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<v Speaker 1>decades by the way. Yeah, uh, then you look at

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<v Speaker 1>the details and they're saying, yeah, we'll do another reassessment

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<v Speaker 1>about a year after Trump leaves office. So all this

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<v Speaker 1>congratulations and claims that they're gonna do this or that

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<v Speaker 1>for uh, for NATO. And you saw Mark Rucha, the

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<v Speaker 1>NATO Secretary General, just lathering up Trump one side and

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<v Speaker 1>down the other, praising him in public and saying all

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<v Speaker 1>these wonderful things. But called me cynical, But I think

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<v Speaker 1>that a lot of these European leaders have no intention

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<v Speaker 1>to ever meet five percent, But they just want to

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<v Speaker 1>get Trump off the stage into well they can get

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<v Speaker 1>a more amenable president maybe that might not be as

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<v Speaker 1>concerned as he is about, you know, not doing more

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<v Speaker 1>than our share and allowing them not to.

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<v Speaker 2>So I just called me skeptical. We'll see how it

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<v Speaker 2>works out.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, but you're talking tim years and they have all

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<v Speaker 4>their own domestic economic issues. There's gonna be a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of elections.

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<v Speaker 2>Between now and then.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm just put me in the will see camp. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm with you wholeheartedly on that. I'm Jaden and cinecal

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<v Speaker 1>about most everything. So yeah, I'm gonna wait and keep

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<v Speaker 1>my popcorn out, wait to see what they actually do.

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<v Speaker 1>And let's face it, yeah, they might have conceded a

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<v Speaker 1>Trump's demands at least on paper, just to sort of

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<v Speaker 1>get them in the room with him when he hit

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<v Speaker 1>sits down with him and talks about tariffs. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's like, you don't want to be in a bad

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<v Speaker 1>position visa v. Trump if you have to negotiate with him.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, let's pivot over to the situation in around

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<v Speaker 1>is in Israel, I personally have no idea how much

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<v Speaker 1>damage was done to the Irani nuclear facilities. I haven't

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<v Speaker 1>been in there. I think people are still struggling over

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<v Speaker 1>whether or not it's been damaged for months or years.

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<v Speaker 1>I guess the significant takeaway from me is at least

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<v Speaker 1>there's a ceasefire and they're not dropping bombs on each

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<v Speaker 1>other and killing each other. Right now?

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<v Speaker 2>Do you see that lasting?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, some of the statements from the Iranian officials

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<v Speaker 1>that are still alive or a little bit troubling, most

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<v Speaker 1>notably the factois that was issued on Trump and net

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<v Speaker 1>and Yahoo the other day that that's not a step

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<v Speaker 1>in the right direction. But whatever, But how do you

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<v Speaker 1>see this?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, Frankly, you have those kinds of statements coming from

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<v Speaker 4>all three parties, the US, Israel, and Iran. So in

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<v Speaker 4>my view, this is nothing but a pause because all

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<v Speaker 4>three parties needed it. We needed it because especially with

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<v Speaker 4>what we're still trying to do with Ukraine and what

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<v Speaker 4>we had tried to do in the Red Sea, and

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<v Speaker 4>then now with this, we didn't have enough air defensive

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<v Speaker 4>interceptor missiles or offensive missiles to maintain a steady state

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<v Speaker 4>offensive that could have lasted many months. For example, between

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<v Speaker 4>Iran and Israel. Israel obviously was running short on interceptor missiles.

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<v Speaker 4>They'd been firing, you know, for a long time here,

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<v Speaker 4>and now they stepped up, and you know, the Iranian

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<v Speaker 4>show that they had a significant capacity for missiles despite

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<v Speaker 4>what some may have believed. I think you and I

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<v Speaker 4>have been talking on this show for a long time

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<v Speaker 4>that Iran did have the capability to penetrate the iron

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<v Speaker 4>DOILM system, and now they've proven it and Israel doesn't

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<v Speaker 4>have the capacity to endure that kind of sustained hit,

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<v Speaker 4>and they've never suffered this in there our history to

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<v Speaker 4>the level they have here, and they can't sustain it.

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<v Speaker 4>Iran also couldn't sustain what they were enduring because they

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<v Speaker 4>basically had lost their air defense system, so the Israeli

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<v Speaker 4>jets were flying with virtual impunity around with the well.

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<v Speaker 2>So yeah, so the bottom line, everybody needed a pause.

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<v Speaker 4>But nobody has changed their position, nothing has been accomplished,

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<v Speaker 4>so as far as I can see, we're just waiting

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<v Speaker 4>for it to restart.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, And I guess given the incredible uh Israeli intelligence,

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<v Speaker 1>we've got to give them props for you know, sneaking

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<v Speaker 1>in and setting everything up for this this strike that

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<v Speaker 1>they did. I mean, it seems to me that's changed

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<v Speaker 1>the whole nature of warfare when you consider DRNE technology

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<v Speaker 1>and how you know, moving in and hiding things close

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<v Speaker 1>to the targets is an achievable objective. But don't you

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<v Speaker 1>think given these rocket batteries, these missile batteries, I would

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<v Speaker 1>argue they take up some large space that Iranian intelligence

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<v Speaker 1>or Israeli intelligence would know where they are. So these

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<v Speaker 1>this open air space that they were able to get

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<v Speaker 1>and achieve that. It just seems to invite launches of

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<v Speaker 1>more air strikes to blow up the very missiles that

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<v Speaker 1>they can't shoot down once they arrived in Israeli airspace.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, they certainly wanted to do that, but Iran for

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<v Speaker 4>decades has been well aware that if they got into

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<v Speaker 4>a fight with Israel, that this is how the fight

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<v Speaker 4>would be done. So they put very few of their

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<v Speaker 4>launchers out in the open to be seen or like

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<v Speaker 4>in buildings that where it can be easily identified in

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<v Speaker 4>the building blown up, So they've all been the majority

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<v Speaker 4>have been underground where they remain. So they have the

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<v Speaker 4>situation where like in actually North Korea has done this

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<v Speaker 4>for many decades and that may be where they originated.

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<v Speaker 4>The idea is that there is like you know, these

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<v Speaker 4>hardened caves and then the blast doors will open, the

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<v Speaker 4>launcher will come out, it will fire's load, and then

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<v Speaker 4>it'll go back in there. So unless you have a

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<v Speaker 4>plane in the air just looking or a drone of

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<v Speaker 4>some sort that can have a target of opportunity in minutes,

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<v Speaker 4>you can't get up there before the thing's back in

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<v Speaker 4>its container.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's very very difficult to do that, and.

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<v Speaker 4>We don't even know how many missiles and launchers Iran

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<v Speaker 4>actually has. You know, I saw some people claiming that

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<v Speaker 4>forty percent of the launchers had been destroyed, because that

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<v Speaker 4>seems to be the key issue. You can have a

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<v Speaker 4>million missiles, but if you don't have any launchers, it's meaningless.

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<v Speaker 4>I don't think anyone really knows how many launchers. They

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<v Speaker 4>have to know what percentage has been the damage, so

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<v Speaker 4>I would not expect that that's going to go away

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<v Speaker 4>anytime soon.

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<v Speaker 1>And I imagine they're spread far and wide geographically too,

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<v Speaker 1>so absolutely fair enough. Retire with the Colonel Daniel Davis.

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<v Speaker 1>Always a real pleasure having on the program. I'll encourage

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<v Speaker 1>my listeners to search for your podcast, Daniel Davis Deep

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<v Speaker 1>Dive and as always, I'm looking forward to next Tuesday

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<v Speaker 1>in another discussion, Man, I already am too, Brian, Thanks very much,

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<v Speaker 1>Take care, brother, have a great week. Eight forty fifty

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<v Speaker 1>five kr SE detalk station.

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<v Speaker 4>This is fifty five karc an iHeartRadio station.

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<v Speaker 2>In the podcast,