Speaker 1: We love.
Speaker 2: Welcome in to Wager Talks. Last Call Kelly Stewart here
on week thirteen of the College Trouble season.
Speaker 3: Man, time flies when you are having a good time,
and that's what we aim to do here on Last Call.
We like to have a great time. We like to
bring you guys last minute information not only from the
sports books, from but behind some of those computer screens
with VR and the wise guys. Of course, we're gonna
talk all of your questions with Brian Leonard and then
we're gonna hit some UFC with Kyle Anthony here Baton cleanup.
So let's get right into it. No art this morning
from the Westgate super Book. But he sent us his needs,
his number one biggest overall need. I'm gonna get to
you here in just a minute. But they need UCF.
That sucks because Kelly likes Oklahoma State, Wyoming, Wisconsin and Syracuse.
Here's some good news. Sharp side was Oklahoma State Yay?
That is why they need UCF. Another sharp side, old
demand James Madison and California public sides today. No surprise
here USC the Square Dog at Oregon, Louisville and then
Iowa over those Michigan State spartans that well, they elected
not to come out at halftime last week, so I
wouldn't be surprised to see that everybody wants to back
Iowa again this week.
Speaker 2: Okay, we're gonna get into the biggest need.
Speaker 3: The number one biggest need at the Westgates super Book
this weekend. Cincinnati over BYU catching two and a half
last I saw, and that reminds me I should have
my odds Logic screen open WT Buzz.
Speaker 2: Backslash Kelly in Vegas.
Speaker 3: That's right, you guys can Odds Logic backslash Kelly Vegasxcuse me, guys,
I had need more coffee odds Logic dot Com backslash
Kelly and Vegas to get a.
Speaker 2: Free week of odds logic.
Speaker 3: Let's bring in the man who's always got his odds
logic screen open. That's right, Yati, the Greek. You guys
see him every single week with me here on Bettant.
You guys catch him on wager Talk today. He's now
doing solo videos for us on the wader Talk YouTube channel,
so all the things. He's also still got a full
time position with the UFC. Maybe he'll share some of
his UFC goodies as well. He gave us some f
one this week on that on it, so we're gonna
see how those ended up coming out. Lots of plus
money over there, VR, let's get right into it. I
went over some of those needs with Art. I've got
the list up because I like to compare the two.
What are you seeing here on this beautiful Saturday morning.
Speaker 4: Yeah, we agree with most of that. As far as
the needs, you nailed it. Oklahoma State very sharp, Wisconsin
very sharp. We covered them on bed on it. So obviously,
when the wise guys come in one sided and there's
not enough public money to offset that risk, the books
are gonna need the other side. Again, not all that
surprising they did come in. I confirmed as well on
the James Madison side this morning. Cal was earlier in
the week old dominion as well, and I can also
confirm the USC Oregon situation. I got multiple groups that
bet Oregon, and earlier it seemed like the public who's
gonna be on Oregon as well, But that seems to
have changed and I'm seeing a lot of USC money
from the public. I actually like the Oregon side. I
kind of wish I got down at like nine and
a half or so, But.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I haven't. I haven't fired on that yet.
Speaker 4: Here's what I can tell you as far as some
of the sharper sides other than what we shared this
week on bed on It, you guys can check that out.
Here's a couple more signs for you told you about
the Oregon, told you about Oklahoma State, told you about Wisconsin.
Don't forget Nebraska. Nebraska at plus nine. They also took
Temple Temple. It looks opposite because that that tulane line
is moving up, but at ten is where they were
taking Temple.
Speaker 5: They also took U a B plus three touchdowns or better.
Chalky daylaid was Miami.
Speaker 4: They lay in Miami at seventeen. That's why you're looking
at eighteen right now. Again where that time of the
year where even the wise guys are willing to lay
a little bit more than even their power ratings reflect.
Because it's that time of the year where there's factors
that we can't quantify, like what is senior Day worth,
what is trying to make a bowl game worth? What
is seeding in the playoffs worth? Those are difficult to quantify,
But in spots like this where you know style points matter,
they're willing to lay a little bit more. And you
saw that with Miami cal We already talked about U
Tall State to twenty one U Tall State plus the points.
They also moneylined Utah State. I fired there as well.
Another game that got away from US South Carolina at
minus twenty two and a half twenty three. That's up
to twenty four and then Pitt you touched on. They're
picking off the threes with Pitt and then that BYU game.
It's been all b YU money. But that's sitting in
two and a half because the plus three got picked
off there as well. So yeah, a lot of steme,
not high profile like games like number two versus number three,
but you're seeing a lot of movement already.
Speaker 3: All Right, VR, let's talk about a couple of things
that you got going on for this weekend. Tomorrow, I'm
feeling for aerol Apstein. I will not be here in
my studio. I'll be at my dad's house. So you
guys are gonna have to bear with me with any
technical issues. But VR is gonna join me John Murray
of course, and I believe I gotta look at the schedule.
I think Marco D'Angelo is coming on. Was will basically
be the bet on It crew and Kelly and Murray.
It's gonna be awesome. But you're gonna do the steam
room for free for everybody. So normally it's just for
your premium subscribers. Every once in a while we let
in those wager Talk insiders.
Speaker 2: But this is for everybody. Let everybody know what you're
gonna get with.
Speaker 4: That yep, that final hour leading into kickoff of NFL,
We're gonna go over every at least early game and
if we have time the later games as well, signed
player props.
Speaker 5: About fifteen minutes before.
Speaker 4: The kickoff, will put together those plus EV tasers as
well any live bets that come in, as well as
college basketball, NBA, all the stuff that comes in while
we're going live, and I'm there to answer all your questions,
go over our risk management, and more importantly, for tomorrow,
I'll be able to explain what that steam sheet is
because that's really really helped me big time.
Speaker 5: And it took a long time.
Speaker 4: Me and Johnny were laughing, but we finally figured out
how to get that volume.
Speaker 5: To the people that handicap their own stuff and.
Speaker 4: Want volume while also being to isolate those premium plays.
That's why today you have my five percent package up.
The only thing in there is four percent and that
one to five percent, and also got college basketball no
package because it's been nothing but three percent.
Speaker 5: Those are for subscribers only.
Speaker 4: UFC started, so that package is down, but the NFL
is up for tomorrow. Handful of plays in there. And
again don't forget, this is only the fifth five percent
I fired all year, been sitting number one since about
week one. But they just they you'll see when you
when you buy the play. I put a little quote
in there. I know the situation. They overreacted and that's
exactly what warrants that five percent. So they forced me
to bet a bigger bet than we've been firing throughout
the year.
Speaker 5: We'll see how that turns out.
Speaker 3: Love it love a good overreaction, especially in the NFL. Tomorrow,
ACES steam room is free for everyone in WT dot
buzz Backslash SR one.
Speaker 2: One two three.
Speaker 3: That's November twenty third, wt Dot buzz Backslash SR eleven
twenty three. We'll also see it on the wager Talk
YouTube channels. You guys can just head over there. Make
sure your subscribed, so you guys do not miss it.
And b R, can you let me know what this
steam sheet is right through Monday nights football.
Speaker 5: Yeah, here's what I'm doing.
Speaker 4: Every day, We're putting up given a premium play one
of my premiums, and then on that play, I'm adding
all the moves that come in throughout the day, stuff
that I'm not betting on top of not releasing the subscribers.
But it's for those handy guys that handicap their own
stuff and those guys that won't volume. Like today in
college football, there's probably fifteen twenty bets that we placed.
Speaker 5: I can't send my.
Speaker 4: Subscribers thirty forty plays, but I'm able to share that information.
That's what was driving me the most crazy that I
have so access to so much and I couldn't use it.
But now if you look at today's steamshet, there's like
eight to ten college basketball games, fifteen college football games,
three or four UFC bets.
Speaker 5: Anything that comes across, whether it's.
Speaker 4: Soccer, cricket, anything, second halves, they will be on that
steam sheet. So yeah, I'm really excited about that, and
we're perfecting it and that's gonna be gold for handicappers
for sure.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, I just put that into the chat wt dot
buzz backslash VR. You guys can go get it on
his homepage up on wager talk dot com. We've got
a ton of questions populating, but I'm gonna let VR
get out of here early. He's on wager Talk every
single day. He's got lots of stuff to do up
until kickoff. You guys can also still watch the college
football edition to bet on it, as well as the NFL.
Speaker 5: Right now, Oh, cal, I gotta answer the gentleman's question.
Speaker 1: Please please please.
Speaker 4: The man says, the Greek has one hundred percent of
bank roll at risk today. Please explain how's this responsible
money management? Thank you, sir for bringing that up. I've
explained this a million times. You could go back to
twenty seventeen. Every single video I get a chance, I
explained this. I have never bet five percent of my
bank roll on any play. I never urge anyone to
bet five percent of their bank roll in a play
because they're gonna go broke.
Speaker 5: Doing that, you are over betting your edge.
Speaker 4: We bet point two five percent of the rating one
percent to five percent, that's a rating of strength. That's
not a recommendation of bet size, because anyone that's urging
you to bet four percent on five different plays or
five percent on a play teaching you how to go broke,
how to lose your money to the sports book, because
there's nobody on the planet that has a five, six, seven,
eight percent edge over the veig that should be betting
that much. So we bet point twenty five. That means
a five percent play like today's five percent. I'm betting
one point twenty five percent of bankroll. So those four
percent I have eight four percent plays. Those are point
twenty five of four percent. That means that's each of
those is one percent, So those eight plays are each
one percent of bankroll. That's eight percent of my bank roll, sir,
not thirty two percent of my bankroll. We we don't
bet like that. We bet to profit, not for action,
not the gamble. So risk management is the most important
aspect when it comes to sports betting.
Speaker 5: Master that part.
Speaker 4: Bet small in relation to bet bankroll point two five
of the rating and you'll do just fine.
Speaker 5: Thanks, thanks for giving me that time.
Speaker 2: Cal shout out Rob Brayley, Uh love me some Rob.
He's the one asking the questions, and you.
Speaker 5: Know, yeah, thank you, thank you for giving me that chance.
Speaker 3: On these These are questions that subscribers want to know.
These are questions that premium subscribers want to know as well.
Are anything you want to add before we get on
to Brian Leonard.
Speaker 4: I saw someone ask for college basketball. These four to
five plays just came in while we were doing this.
I haven't looked through them to see if I'm going
to use any for premiums, but at least this theme
sheet will get them for sure. Six twenty six, Portland
plus four and a half, six twenty three, bull State
plus nine, six twenty eight, Weber Weaver minus two, six
thirty four, Oregon State minus three and a half, and
six thirty three.
Speaker 5: I own a plus four and a half. You just
got five.
Speaker 4: Moves that came over right now from the college basketball Bot,
So if you follow them, fade them.
Speaker 5: The info is yours to.
Speaker 2: Use awesome stuff, and that's what we do here.
Speaker 3: We try to give you guys, last minute, up to
date info.
Speaker 2: And now Brian Leonard's gonna jump in here. Guys. You
have seen him on total basis. You guys have seen.
Speaker 3: Him on full court press, and now you guys gonna
see him here on Wait or Wager Talks.
Speaker 2: Last Call, Brian.
Speaker 3: I know it's early out there on the West Coast,
and I always appreciate you guys coming to hang out
with us up until kickoff. We have a ton of
questions we're gonna get to, so I'm just gonna let
everybody kind of just fire at will give me thirty
second answers on some of these and if you don't
have an opinion, we can pass.
Speaker 2: Guys.
Speaker 3: If you have a question for Brian, please drop it
in the chat. All boy, here we go.
Speaker 2: They want to start with Kansas State. Brian.
Speaker 3: Oh, okay, here's the reality, and I want to know
your opinion because I'm gonna get called a Homer case.
State plays up to their level of competition and then
they beat the crap out a team's named KU because
they know the precedents that's set. Utah has been steam
rolling teams. Here's my caveat. It has been an awful
season for the Kansastate football team by all intents and purposes.
Losing in Ireland not great, But this line was plus
one and a half before that game in Dublin seventeen.
Speaker 2: I played okay, hand up.
Speaker 3: I did not play k State plus seventeen with my
hard earned money. But in the splash contest that I'm in,
some of them you have to pick seven.
Speaker 2: Some of them you have to pick ten.
Speaker 3: And that's tough, especially when I like four or five games.
So I did use Kansas State plus seventeen and a
half in all the contests. That gives me enough to
root for Brian. Am I an insufferable homer?
Speaker 6: Well, first of all, it's going to be tough to
give the energy following VR in you on that last segment,
But I'll try to do my best here. If you
could include the game numbers on all the a ton
of games going, This is game one, one sixty three,
one sixty four Kansas State at Utah. Perline out there
is I'm seeing anywhere from seventeen to seventeen and a half.
My number was eighteen point two on this game, and
that does not mean I'm going to play Utah. Utah's
offense has just been terrific aus of late. This is
a team coming in the season A lot of people
are really high on, you know, Kansas State has you
have to admit they've regressed a little bit. They've had
some injuries to worry about it. But if I'm correct,
I believe the middle linebacker, probably the best tackler on
Cantas State, isn't playing in this game. So my number
says Utah. But there's no way I can lay that
kind of number. If I'd have seen maybe a fourteen,
I would be all over Utah by this current number.
There's enough games on the board today where we don't
have to fight for a half a point advantage. So
lean Utah. But ione get involved.
Speaker 3: All right, I think that is fair. We're gonna get
through some more of these questions.
Speaker 2: Let's go right here.
Speaker 3: Let's stick with the big twelve because I think this
one's interesting. So, Brian, you hopped on just a little
bit after I sent the needs out from Art to
Caesar at the Westgate super Book, and he said their
number one need today was going to be Cincinnati.
Speaker 6: Cincinnati. Let me see if I can find the game number.
Speaker 2: Yep, Sorry, I really good about telling these guys. One
of my favorite things on the Odds blog screen, especially
right here on the Mac.
Speaker 3: You can use a search button. You can find it
by searching control app. So Cincinnati BYU is game number
one thirty five, one thirty six before you is a oh,
we're seeing some three start to pop up, at least
they're at Pinnacle.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 6: I I'm looking at my number on my sheet and
I'm showing BYU five. So I'm interested in BYU against Cincinnati.
It's basically two and a half out there. Now you're
laying juice. A couple of places have three minus one
oh five or lesser number. So as our franch Steve
Peze would say, two point seventy five on on BYU
against Cincinnati. And now I've had a lot of success
with both these teams this year, especially I like Cincinnati
as an underdog, which is a situation that I're in today.
But from a talent standpoint, BYU has played one bad
game this season. They've been very good overall. My number
says BYU. If I can lay that two and a
half minus the one ten, which there are a few
of them out there, I'd be interested in that side.
Two very good football teams, and it wouldn't surprise me
if it goes either way. But I think BYUS got
a little bit better talent, and it's a team that
the fans. If you're looking at the fans protective BBI
use fans travel as well. It's just about anyone out there.
If anybody takes that into that into account. Keep in mind,
is I cut the end of the A lot of
these games we're going to talk about today. There's only
two weeks left in the season. There's going to be
a lot of factors in these kind of games that
you don't see earlier in the year. And those are
teams that may have quit on their season, teams that
played much better earlier this season we probably want to
fade coming to the end, Teams that need to win
to go to bowl games. So a lot of different
things we have to look at last couple.
Speaker 2: Of weeks things.
Speaker 3: There's a couple more games that are popping up, and
I'll be sure to give you those rotation numbers when
we answer the questions. I want to discuss that because
from a handicapping perspective, I find it really interesting. So
Maryland is not going to a bowl game today, but
I like Maryland in the sense of a play against Michigan.
Maryland's bringing back their head coach, and who doesn't love
to play spoiler? So how do you decipher whether Maryland's
quit on the season, whether they can still beat up
on Big ten you know, big brother, if you will
in a Michigan team.
Speaker 2: When you're looking.
Speaker 3: At these scheduling spots, again, case State needs another win
today to become Bowl eligible, I'm not sure they're going
to get.
Speaker 2: A win, right.
Speaker 3: I think I think they could cover the game, but
actually asking them to win in Salt Lake City is
very tough.
Speaker 2: So I feel like using that is case State needs another.
Speaker 3: Win, well, they're going to get it next week versus
Colorado because Colorado has quit on the season, right, So
kind of help us unravel these different situations, if you will.
Speaker 6: Yeah, most of the time, I always say it comes
down to it at the end of the season in
college of basketball as well, and teams that need to
win to make the tournament, teams that need to win
to get to Bowl eligibility. If a team needs to
win at this time of the season, they're not very good.
And that's the problem with Maryland. But I agree I
made this line lesser. The line is going up. It
open twelve now it's up to you can get fourteen months,
one ten just about anywhere for Maryland, and that would
be the only way I would look here. I actually
faded Ohio State. I was going to use that as
one of the games I would talk about, but the
line's caught up to me. Rutgers has got a lot
better number. Ohio State has got that big game with
Michigan coming up. Then they're going to play in the
probably play Indiana in the Big Ten Championship. So you
got to look at what's going on in the future
for these teams. They've got wide receivers at Ohio State
that's been injured. Michigan is a team that are they
really good enough to lay fourteen points to anybody on
the road. I don't think they are with that game
against Ohio State next week, that's the big game for them.
So yeah, Maryland's a team that is surprised some of
these In some of their games, They've played some pretty
good teams tough. Maryland is one of the teams that
right now at fourteen, since that line has moved up,
I'm interested in the Terrapins right now. And there's there's
not that big of a difference in talent wise between
Michigan and Maryland, and that's the thing for the Big Ten.
The Big Ten a's the SEC. All the teams recruit
very well. A lot of the players that don't get
a chance to play. If you look at it like
the Georgia game today, Uh, you've got a lesser relying
on Georgia. But Georgia's second and third string will get
a chance to play today, and those players could be
starting for a lot of teams in college football. So
you have to take that into a into account. But yeah,
Maryland is one of the teams I'm looking for to
add to my clients later on today.
Speaker 2: You see that.
Speaker 3: I just threw up that comment really quick because Georgia
oh and fifteen against the spread as thirty eight point
faves seems like a public dog there on Charlotte. So
I guess my question is, Brian, do you really buy
into much? Is the rotation number? Forty three and a
half they're at the Westgates, you book forty four at
Pinnacle and a couple other what I would call offshores,
which we're probably not supposed to talk about here anymore on
the Wager Talking YouTube channel, but I just did that.
Being said, thoughts on kind of these giant numbers, right,
we know the SEC tends to play these non conference
games in November.
Speaker 2: Does Georgia really care?
Speaker 3: And oh, by the way, I just bet Georgia tend
to want to win the national championship.
Speaker 2: For anybody who cares, there you go.
Speaker 6: Well, the thing is, when you're looking at these games,
you have to make your own power ratings. And the
opener was forty five. We've taken money. We're down to
forty three in some places on this game right now.
Forty three a circle in Vegas. So that means they
don't think george is going to show up today. But
if you take a look at your power range, I
made this line Georgia fifty one and a half that
forty five already took that into account.
Speaker 1: Here.
Speaker 6: Charlotte's a bad football team. They don't have the physicality
that Georgia has. Georgia, could you just sit back, run
the football all day long and put up fifty or
cell points against Charlotte. It's so right now we're getting
at forty three. I like Georgia in this game. I
just think those guys that have been sitting in the
bench all year long get that chance to play here. Obviously,
huge coaching advantage for Georgia, and it's a home game.
The fans don't want to go to the home game
and see them play Charlotte and not blow them out.
So this is one of those games where I'm going
against the line movement in this one because Charlotte is
just so bad.
Speaker 3: Right now, Brian, I have a question, and this is selfish, right,
So I have had arguments with we'll call them coaches,
staff members, athletic directors, people that I know in this industry,
right Like I have a good friend whose brother is
a pretty prominent athletic director in the former conference called
the PAC twelve. So I'll leave that up to your imagination.
And I remember going out and telling him your alumni,
your donors, your big money guys, they all gamble.
Speaker 2: They don't all gamble, but there's a lot of them
that gamble.
Speaker 3: This seems like that Georgia game where you better step
on it because everybody in that stadium, the Gambles is
going to lay it with Georgia because the expectation. It's
the same thing that I told a buddy of mine
about K State versus KU. I said, the fact that
K Sate is an underdog here is laughable because the
season has been so god awful that if they get
a chance to run.
Speaker 2: Up the score, they're going to do it.
Speaker 3: I was a little disappointed they didn't punch that last touchdown,
and it doesn't matter.
Speaker 2: It wasn't for a cover anything else. But there's there's
almost like.
Speaker 3: Unwritten rules, if you will, with some of these donors
and backers and things like that, and this feels like
that type of game.
Speaker 6: Yeah, it definitely does. And as I'm looking at the scores,
I've seen a couple of forty twos and a half.
So if you are interested in Georgia, just wait, wait
for it to get down to forty two and then
you know that's five touchdowns extra points right there. So yeah,
we're in no hurry to play the Georgia. I agree.
If you're looking at the donors and you know, say
what you want about the old Penn State coach. He
knew what the line was and he would punch it
in and that's how he got to be popular. That's
why he was loved there. My wife's a huge Ohio
State fan. We watch every Ohio State game. We always
know what Ohio State's trying to do in the game,
and they always seem to find that ability to punch
it in now today maybe a little bit different with
Michigan coming up next week, but that's the you know,
when I moved to town, Kenny White was the first
guy I talked to that was on the other side
of the other side of the counter. He made his
own line service, and the first thing he told me says,
don't bet against top ten teams in a game that
they're focused on, because they're going to find a way
to cover that number. Now, the thing is today, how
focused is Ohio State going to be in that game?
That is the concern. But you're right, I agree with
you firmly on that.
Speaker 3: Okay, let's get to a couple more of these questions here.
I'm gonna go with this one because it's on the
same subject, speaking of quit. Has Florida quit on their season?
Lean Tennessee today? That is rotation number one thirty seven eight, Brian,
We have a three now here at the Westgate super Book.
Lots of other three and a half's there on the
board minus one twenty, minus one fifteen. Kind of depends
where you've got your odds logic screen set. I don't
know if Florida's quit on the season I was really
high on Florida going into this year, Brian, and basically
after that LSU game in five turnovers by DJ Lagway,
I said, Okay, I am not cashing this over seven
and a half wins and I am done betting on
this team as an underdog. And then just even last
week they went in to Ole, miss and still put
up a dog fight.
Speaker 6: You were talking about teams that have had bad seasons,
and that shows me a lot from Florida. Because Florida
has had a couple of games where you look like
this team is dead, they've come out and played better
since then. I only did this line three, so it's
not enough for me to make a play. But Tennessee
is a team that beats up on the weeklings. They're
very much like Oregon. They were able to beat up
on the weaklings and now they're going into a real
tough place here to be able to win on the
road at Florida. It's it's been you have to from
a Tennessee's ye what, it's been a little bit disappointing.
At one point they were talking about them being in
the you know, in the chance to go to the
you know, to the big, big four at the end.
But it's kind of in a disappointing season for both
of them. But Florida's had two bad seasons in a row,
and I think the game means more to Florida. If
I had to play it, I played Florida here. But
a lot of these teams have tendencies, and we all
know Tennessee has the ability to throw the ball deep
and that's how they that's how they covered these games
where Florida's got the athletes that they could stop some
of those explosive players. I kind of like Florida in
this game, but my lines show me the line is
pretty much correct.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I could see the same thing.
Speaker 3: I think Florida still has a dog left in the
fight and who doesn't want to beat up on the balls,
which I love taking Florida as an underdog at home
versus Tennessee in years past. What's the difference today? I
did play them in a lot of my Splash contests.
Little shameless plug, really.
Speaker 2: Quick, guys, we still have a.
Speaker 3: Almost three thousand dollars overlay. They're at Splash Sports. Headed
into thirty four minutes before kickoff. I'm gonna drop that
link into the chat if you guys are college football
one week contest, two hundred and fifty dollars up for
grabs on a twenty five dollars entry. Let's take some
more of these questions here, Brian, this one Penn State
laying the number versus Nebraska. Let me get this odds
logic screen open. Here's kind of the thing. I liked
Nebraska early in the week. Rotation number one, forty nine,
one fifty when they were catching nine, nine and a
half right open ten now all the way down to
seven and a half circa minus seven minus one fifteen there, Brian.
Speaker 2: Marco gave out Penn State.
Speaker 3: Hand up on bet on it. I have been head
to head with Marco five or six times. The one
game that I have won, I had Northwestern plus seven
and a half. They covered by the hook. Other than that,
Marco has kicked my ass up and down the football
field every time we've been opposite. Congratulations, and he's had
a hell of a football season. So I said, Okay, fine,
Marco likes Penn State.
Speaker 2: I'm off Nebra.
Speaker 3: Then the money comes in on Nebraska, and I'm thinking,
damn it, I might have liked the Cournoskers.
Speaker 2: Talk to me about Penn State Nebraska today.
Speaker 6: Yeah, Marco is a big contrarian. If everybody's on one side,
he wants to be on the other. So I can
understand that Penn State has played solid football all season long.
You take a look at the games that they've lost,
they've all been tight games, but they were right in
every game. I thought there was plenty of value on
Penn State when they played Indiana, and I thought there's
plenty of value on them since then, and I've won
every week on them. Now. The problem is my numbers
only eight point three, so from the original ten. Obviously
Nebraska was the right side. That's basically where the line
is right now. It's seven and a half everywhere. But
I don't think Penn State is that much better than
this Nebraska team. Nebraska's hadding up and down season, all
along the quarterback and all with the injuries there. But
I kind of think if you can get more than
seven here and just about everywhere out there has it.
Circus got seven minus one fifteen right now, But if
you can catch more than seven, it might be worth
a play on Nebraska here. Even though my number is
about eight point three, that's not enough to get me involved,
but over seven in this game, and it doesn't. It's
a seven pm Eastern Star, so we still got plenty
of time to see more line movement. You could probably
grab Penn State right now, or excuse me, Nebraska right
now at plus seven and a half, wait till later.
Lay in Nebraska it maybe six and a half seven,
and probably look for a middle. But I don't think
this line's going back up again. I think it continues
to go down and it probably closes at seven, so
it's seven. Yeah, Nebraska is probably a pass for me,
but at seven and a half, that's the only way
I could look at this one.
Speaker 3: All right, we're gonna take a few more questions from
Brian Leonard, then we're gonna get to Kyle Anthony for UFC.
So if you have a UFC question, drop it in
the chat Brian. Before we answer a couple more of these,
talk to me about what you got going over at
wager talk dot com.
Speaker 2: So baseball season's over.
Speaker 3: You guys crushed it, Adam trigger Tokyo brand and crush
it with total basis.
Speaker 2: Shout out to that show.
Speaker 3: I know it had a big loyal following, and now
you guys are trying to replicate it with full court press.
Seeing you over there as well, so talking out, finalizing
through let's just call it super Bowl and getting into
that college basketball season. I know you do NHL as well.
Speaker 6: Yeah, NHL. I'm on the NHL Show at least two
times a week. They do a terrific job over there,
And you mentioned the baseball It was just one of
those seasons. I learned so much from the other two
guys and the College Basketball show. The guys over there,
Rob and Brian and in Trig do a terrific job.
I watched that every day. A lot of great shows
out here on daily shows for Wager Talk, I've had
just a tremendous two month around here. In all sports,
I've been winning. You take a look at my web
or my site at wt dot dot Buzz slash bl
you can see I'm on a winning streak in every sport,
college football the last seven weeks, number one in most
profit in college football. Over at wager We've got six
plays up today and we do have this weekend package,
the Weekend Warrior Package. And I'm not considered I don't
consider myself to be an NFL expert, but I'm not
a nice eight and two run in the NFL, and
I really like the Monday Night football game. So you
pick us up, get all six of our plays today,
and I may end up adding that Maryland game, by
the way, So we're getting at least six plays on
today's card, and you can get the NFL for tomorrow
possibly Monday Night football. And if you're looking for all
of our plays in all sports, they've got that great deal.
While I believe it's seven days or less than ten
dollars a day, and we've been killing it in college basketball,
everything's been going great. I really I'm not a guy
who brags a lot about what I do. I've tried
to keep at Eve mckeel. He've been doing this for
forty five years. You don't get up two up and
two updown or two down. But we've really been on
a really nice run lately.
Speaker 3: And that's what it's about, catching these guys while they're
red hot. Brian Leonard is on last call because he's
been red.
Speaker 2: Hot all right.
Speaker 3: Charlotte down a forty two and a half on pinnable
now being hit as we speak. So, like Brian said,
forty two key number in college football. If it's forty two,
maybe I just might be on the dogs. All right,
let's answer Steve's question here. This is more handicap related
and the reason why I like to ask Brian these
types of questions because, like you said, he's been doing
this longer than I've been alive. So I always respect
these guys because there is a lot to learn.
Speaker 2: Not only do you.
Speaker 3: Guys want plays, but we want to make you guys
better cappers here at Wager Talk, especially here on this
YouTube channel. Give us that thumbs up, well heart, if
you're on X or Instagram, we always appreciate it.
Speaker 2: And of course all of these comments.
Speaker 3: Steeve wants to know, do you recommend teasers on college games?
Brian talk about why teasing college football is not plus ev.
Speaker 6: The difference in the NFL, your APPIONSHI differential is ten points,
so teasers make a little more sense in the NFL
if you're covering team numbers. Well, we've all seen kickers
in college football. In the NFL, they rarely miss extra points.
They have moved aback a few years ago, so it
does happen a little bit more. But normally in the NFL,
if the teams score six points, they get the extra point.
In college they don't. The kickers for field goal kicking
are not very good, and you could see games the
linesmakers do a terrific job of trying to get these games,
the lines on these games where they want. After every
sports book manager I've talked to out here in Las Vegas,
if I ask if something about college teasers, first thing
they say, don't play college teasers. Just in the NFL.
Like I said, ten points is the differential overall if
you take it all in college is a lot higher
than that. And you have seen many times in a
college football game where the line is right there and
you watch, how do they make these great lines? Everybody
ignores the games where it was a pick them in
the final score is fifty five to ten. It's just
in college football. If the lines maker's telling me not
to play it, and that's how they make their money,
that's enough to keep me away from playing college teaters.
I luckily, I've never played one in my life. Sometimes
when you see, like back in the days when the
when the military schools would not pass the football, and
you get that thirty two or whatever on a total, Oh,
this team, I can get him over a touchdown. That's
the only time I've ever considered it. So yeah, don't
don't play total don't play teasers in college football.
Speaker 2: Don't play teasers in college football.
Speaker 3: Kyle Anthony just sat down. So we're gonna get to
him here in about two minutes. We're gonna take one
or two more questions. All right, fine, I'm gonna go here.
We're gonna go this one. Syracuse upset Notre Dame. Brian
I got into John Murray this week on the show.
I wasn't trying to argue with him rotation number two
seventeen two eighteen.
Speaker 2: Notre Dame is a thirty seven point favorite, and he.
Speaker 3: Basically argued with me that Notre Dame deserves to get
in and he doesn't understand why everybody's up in arms.
And I said, because Miami beat them to start the season.
That's the only reason why. I think, though, that Notre
Dame has beenefitted for me an easy schedule. I think
that Notre d has had a few scares, but yes,
losing to Miami and A and M two pretty solid
programs right A and M undefeated and is going to
make the College Football Playoff by all intents and purposes
thoughts on this Notre Dame team. I mean, no, Syracuse
is not going upset Notre Dame, but if they did,
it would be historic. Is Syracuse plus all these points?
I like fran Brown, I bet against him as a favorite.
I like him as an underdog. But since they lost
that Notre Dame transfer quarterback what was that three or
four weeks ago? And I've already dumped his name out
of my memory bank because it's completely useless information at
this point in time, I've just said, you know what,
this is just a hurt Syracuse team. I'm not going
to invest my time trying to handicap them any further.
I know that sounds a little lazy, but for me,
I try to focus on what I'm good at, and
laying thirty seven points is not what I'm good at.
But also taking thirty seven points isn't really up my
alley either.
Speaker 6: This is actually one of the games that I'm interested
in because you talked about Nter Dame and when they
fell behind, you know, coming out of the gate, and
they lost to Texas A and m and in Miami
people say, oh, maybe they're not as good. Well that's
because in the history. Everybody thinks Notre Dame is not
as good because they're a team that everybody focuses on.
Look when they got what it was, the ABC, the
ABC contract years ago, why did they get them when
nobody else does Listen? Notre Dame is a popular team,
and people are going to bet on the Irish. But
those were at the time, we thought those were a
little rough losses. Now we look at those two teams.
Miami today is laying a big number and they probably
deserve it. Miami is a really good football team and
they're able to do it with a questionable head coach.
Texas A and m is a really good football team.
You talked about it were they ranked number three in
many places. So Notre Dame is set. Notre Dame does
not need to run up the score here. Granted, Syracuse,
as you mentioned, they're a team that's been banged up,
but I think Syracuse is shown enough this year that
they could stick into this game. And right now you're
looking at teams that are just trying to stay healthy
in order to make it to the tournament. I think
the Irish are just trying to stay healthy here. They
can run the football, not worry about blowing a mile.
They could beat it by thirty points and it's a
nice cover for Syracuse. Line open thirty five. Now we're
seeing thirty seven, thirty seven. There's no doubt that Syracuse,
in my mind, is the right side in this game.
It's to hold your nose. It's one of those type
of games. But the Irish just they've got guys that
are sitting the bench they've been wanting to play. I
think they clear these guys out after the first half
and the second half of the game. That's a big
chance for Syracuse to stay under this number.
Speaker 3: All right, Brian Leonard, you guys can see him over
on the Wager Talking YouTube channel does tons of different
shows for us at Bletard Sports over there.
Speaker 2: On All right, Brian.
Speaker 3: We're gonna get you out of here. Thank you for
all of your college football and knowledge on this beautiful
frat Friday Saturday morning. My days are off, shocker, I'm
still on a beach in Aruba. Thank you to Brian
WT dot buzz Backslash bl All right, guys, for the
next tennish minutes, we're gonna talk to Kyle Anthony. He's
gonna make me pronounce a bunch of names that I'm
not gonna be able to. Basically, I'm just gonna mute
myself and let him talk about today's UFC card.
Speaker 2: Hooocomer and Kyle, how you doing?
Speaker 7: I listen, But there's fights on right now. Fights have started.
It's ten o'clock at start time, but my plays don't
start till about one. So if you're trying to jump
on that, check it out. Wager Talk dot Com, WT
dot Buzz, slash bacsass Ka, check it out. I've got
plays up now, and again we've got even the Hero
parlay that's gonna be going off soon, so check that
out also on my Twitter.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Hero parlay hit what a couple of weeks ago,
which was really fun and it's kind of like my
three team Underdog parlay, except there's a little bit more
chop but a little bit more fight. So it's been
really fun to watch Kyle succeed in doing though. So
head over to WT dot Buzz, backslash Ka you can
see his Hero parlay.
Speaker 2: Is it also up on your Twitter page?
Speaker 5: Yep?
Speaker 1: Yep, So I have that up right now.
Speaker 7: Check it out, and again, one of them is probably
going off with the next like five minutes for the
first leg, so, uh, check out that on the hero.
But the client plays all of those they're gonna be
a little bit later on.
Speaker 3: All right, this is the first fight Vulcan own Zamir
versus Alonzo Minifield.
Speaker 1: That was crisp. That was crisp right there.
Speaker 5: Good time.
Speaker 7: So we got Vulcan O's Demir here he is minus
two twenty five. And the comeback here we've got a
Loneso Menifield, he's plus one ninety. Now you look at
Vulcan here, he's a kickboxer. He wants to come forward.
He's a pressure striker. He wants to fight in the pocket,
and he believes in his power. And that's really where
this fight is gonna be one or loss for either
one of these guys, where they're gonna be looking to
really go in there in the pocket and exchange. He's
gonna be the more technically better striker between these two.
Now you got Menife, who is really more you know,
can mix it up. He can look to get in
the boxing, he can look to get into the into
the wrestling, but really he believes in his power and
that's where he's going to find success whether he wins
or loses. Now, he was knocked out back to back times.
He came back. It looked like his career is kind
of ending. He came back and he ended up beating
two very green, very raw fighters in Umar, said Julius Walker.
But when you go back watch those fights and it
was pretty sloppy overall, I mean just horrible, you know,
optically for both these guys. They were tired early. Alonso
was tired early. That's a big issue here is durability,
and he's his gas tank very very minimal. And this
is a spot here where I just don't really think
he's going to find much success because he is so reckless.
And that's the one thing with Vulcanos Demir is that
he is so much more polished. He is the better striker.
You know, you got Alonzo who's gonna be having these
big looping hooks. Sure he's got the power, but I
believe he throws a lot of those shots really out
of position, and it's going to allow the more cleaner
technical striker in Vulcan to land those big shots. Plus
your gonna see consistently through this fight, Alonzo throwns.
Speaker 1: The same combinations.
Speaker 7: I mean it's you know, if you take a look
at just these two big hooks and he's hoping something lands,
and at this point in his career, he seems unmotivated
at this particular point.
Speaker 1: I do also think.
Speaker 7: That Vulcan at this spot he's gonna chop.
Speaker 1: Away at those legs.
Speaker 7: We saw him find a lot of success against Carlos
Uberg recently, where Ubert gonna be fighting for a title soon.
So I think this is the spot here where Vulcan
has the durability, He's got the better striking, he's got
the power, and I am just not a believer at
this point here in Alonzo Menifield having this resurgence over
these two, you know, newcomers in the division here, So
you gotta go with me your minus two twenty five.
Speaker 1: I like the knockout here at plus one forty.
Speaker 7: I think there's a really good shot at that early
in that first round, I think it's gonna be a
little dicey.
Speaker 1: Both are gonna be swinging.
Speaker 7: But as this fight goes on, I think that knockout materializes.
So give me Bulcan knows Mere by knockout a plus
one forty.
Speaker 3: All right, guys, if you have a question for Kyle,
drop it in the chat.
Speaker 2: We got about five more minutes.
Speaker 3: All right, Matt Hudson, big Miami fans, so he doesn't
like me very often, but I'm gonna answer his question anyway.
Speaker 1: Do you like or or Bank or a Bie? Well,
I can I can dive into that one.
Speaker 7: I guess right here. So we got we got mechtic
or By. He is minus two hundred on the comeback.
We've got Jack Jack elementally that one last weekend, Jack Hermanson.
I think I need more coffee too, Jack Armanson plus
one sixty five. Now you got her Manson, who is
really a grappler. You know, he's very good, high level
despite gets to the ground. He's got elite level jiu jitsu,
you know, very smooth submission game, got you know, very
good volume on the feet. But when you're looking at
some of the red flags here in this fight, and
there are multiple on the Hermanson side, first being the
fact that this guy was brutally knocked out in June.
Speaker 1: That's like five months ago.
Speaker 7: And for me, if I'm gonna be wagering on a
fighter and they're brutally knocked out that badly I need
like eight to ten months time off for healing process.
They just become a little bit more chinny if they
come back that quickly. So that's one red flag. The
other red flag is a fact he's thirty seven years old,
wrong side of thirty five. That's another red flag coming
back that quickly. But the third red flag is the
fact that this is the first time in his career
he's dropping from one hundred and eighty five pounds through
one hundred and seventy pounds. Those are a lot of
moving parts here, and you know, he did make the weight,
and that's why this line did come in is because
he made the weight. Now that kind of you know,
some people would he was sure he was gonna make
the weight.
Speaker 1: He did make the weight. But to me, you you know,
many times we're gonna see this.
Speaker 7: You drain, you know, your body, your gas tank, your
durability when you're squeezing down. And now you got a
guy who's coming back quickly at thirty seven years old.
I just don't like this set up here. He is
a great grappler, but the thing about it is really
is that he is a big one eighty five and
to cut that much weight I think is gonna really
do you know, bad things for him when you're talking
about just you know, you know, is he gonna be
in peak physical condition that type of thing. But I
think this is a spot here where Orbi is going
to come forward. You've got Jack who has not been
taken down since one time, since twenty nineteen, So this.
Speaker 1: Fight will play out on the feet.
Speaker 7: I think it's gonna be you know, pitter patter shots
from both of them, but Orby has power. I think
he's gonna test that chin here. So I believe this
is a spot here where the knockout does happen.
Speaker 1: The fight plays down on the feet.
Speaker 7: A lot less grappling here, so the knockouts sitting around
plus three forty. I think that's a great spot, A
little sprinkle spot there that's very much has some value here.
Speaker 1: So I think he gets a knockout here in this fight.
Speaker 3: All right, Kyle, I got a couple more questions from
the chat before we get out of here, But first,
let everybody know what you've got going on over at
wager talk dot com.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I've got four plays up right now.
Speaker 7: One of them is a four percent play, and I
do have you know some spots here where I really
think are some grace. But I did have another four
percent Shamil Ghaziev. The fight got canceled, so it's kind
of pissed off about that, but it is what it is.
That's kind of how this game works out here. But
check it out wager talk dot com. Four plays. We're
gonna make some money this morning.
Speaker 2: All right, who's your favorite dog today, Cutter?
Speaker 3: This is like my type of question. I like those
plus money underdogs. He likes Gazie.
Speaker 1: The one that I like here.
Speaker 7: Now, people are not gonna like this at all because
people hate Ian Gary, people hate Bleel Mohammed. I think
ballal at like plus two point thirty is a great
value here. He's the former champion, he's got the wrestling.
He fought it a terrible, terrible game plan. Last time
he fought Jack Delamttalanta, he wanted a box. Here he's
talking about wrestling. I think he's got the physicality. I
think he's got the strength advantage. I think he's got
the path to victory there as well. And if you
want to just kind of get off that a little bit,
you can get ballall plus three and a half.
Speaker 1: If you don't know what that is.
Speaker 7: That's basically your buying points on the judge of scorecard.
So if one judge gives him the round and he
does not get finished and it's twenty nine to twenty eight, you.
Speaker 1: Win by half a point.
Speaker 7: And I like that spot here because I think he's
gonna at least get a takedown, at least control one
round and then maybe losing the judge of scorecards. So
I like blal here. I think there's value in this
spot here in the comin event.
Speaker 2: All right, we're gonna get out of here.
Speaker 3: We got fifteen minutes until kickoff. Slash sports dot Com
Backslash Calling Vegas. If you guys want to get in
on that overlay, twenty five dollars entry and fifty dollars guaranteed.
Kyle Anthony make sure you guys are following him on
X You guys can check out his Hero Parlay over
there at Kyle Anthony ufc WT dot Buzz Backslash kat Ka.
Excuse me to get on board with Kyle today.
Speaker 1: Kyle A first leg of the Hero Parlay just hit,
So we're okay.
Speaker 2: I love that. All right, guys, there's still how many
legs left.
Speaker 1: Two more legs left, so check it out on my Twitter.
Got a posted there, Hell yeah yeah.
Speaker 3: The comment section just said first leg of the parlay
won by submission. Congratulations their great cap by you have.
Speaker 2: A wonderful Saturday, everybody.
Speaker 3: I'll be back tomorrow for last call filling and for
aero Epsteine talking NFL