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Speaker 1: Man. You know the thing about these numbers is you

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could have any narrative you desire, maybe on one end

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of the spectrum or the other. Let's go there that

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the economy is slowing down and we're headed for recession.

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Or you could believe, well, this is not nearly as

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bad as what it could be and we're actually continuing

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to grow. Either of those two ends of the spectrum

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can be supported with these numbers.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, where you

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get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to

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thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot

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com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever.

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Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial

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Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Well Dall Smothers

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is with us now, and I'll just tell you he's

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the founder of CEO and the big honcho at R

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d s Mother's Wealth Management in Kentucky, but he services

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the whole country. And I will tell you what chat

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GPT said about him. He said he's a seasoned retirement

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and income planning expert, Trusted Advisor, radio podcast host, published author,

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educator dedicated to helping individuals retire with confidence and stability,

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and man, your work's cut out for you now, Dell.

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Speaker 1: But oh right, what an intro.

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Speaker 3: In the meantime, we've got we've got the job numbers

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came out, and you know, the Trump solution is, if

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you don't like the numbers, fire the guy, fire the accountant.

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Speaker 1: Right, Oh, Garry, that's funny. I love being with you, man,

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This is is an incredible show, and I love your

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listening audience. We have very similar, I'm sure, a very

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similar background in our political beliefs and our philosophical beliefs

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around money. But the ultimate correction that came out last

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Friday was one of the worst corrections we've seen, one

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of the most negative corrections that we've seen in what

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half a century or more, uh, since the sixties. I

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believe we haven't been that far off with our labor reports,

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and so you know, I think Trump definitely could have

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tweeted something differently when he fired the chairman. But she

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made a major mistake. She oversaw a major mistake. It

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was a mistake of significant importance. And I think, Carrie,

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it's pretty apparent that if the Fed had seen this

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type of number, they would have likely at least put

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on the table a twenty five basis point cut, and

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it wasn't even discussed.

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Speaker 3: Mm hmmm, So what's your take on the numbers there?

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Speaker 1: Man? You know, the thing about these numbers is you

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could have any narrative you desire, maybe on one end

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of the spectrum or the other. Let's go there, that

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the economy is slowing down and we're headed for recession,

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or you could believe, well, this is not nearly as

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bad as what it could be and we're actually continuing

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to grow. Either of those two ends of the spectrum

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can be supported with these numbers, because if you look

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at the revision last week, it does show we are

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much worse than we expected to be at this time

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a week ago. A week ago we thought we were

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in good, strong standings. On Thursday and Friday the report

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comes out and it's a pretty significant change. You look

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at numbers this week and it hasn't changed much from

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last week. And it's not like we are losing jobs.

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We just aren't growing as quickly. So both ends of

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the spectrum you could say, Hey, we're still growing and

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things are well, or you could say, hey, we are

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really slowing down here, and the labor market's showing a

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sign of weakness in the economy that we don't like

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to see. At the end of the day, carry out,

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I believe that the market is still in an optimistic

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state of mind. I believe that investors still want to

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be a part of this American story. I believe that

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AI will continue to be the leading edge that pushes

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us higher in the S and P five hundred throughout

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the rest of the year. But this pause, as healthy

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as it may have been, is a direct result of

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the uncertainty around the labor market and the economy and

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how the FED will react to those numbers. One thing

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that sticks out to me, Carrie, not to talk over

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you here or not allow you to talk at all,

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but one thing that sticks out to me is the

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productivity numbers. If you look at those in the labor report,

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the productivity numbers show us that the workers who are

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still working are far more productive than they've been, far

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more productive than we expected them to be. And I

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just can't help but think that that's because of AI

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and all of the productivity multipliers that you received from AI.

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You mentioned Chad GPT right as we came on. It

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would have taken you a few minutes to look that up.

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And you and I just simply put that into chat

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GBT right before we came on, and it was it

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of that up in seconds.

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Speaker 3: It's great And if it didn't speak so highly of you,

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I wouldn't have read it.

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Speaker 1: Well, I appreciate it, and I you know you do.

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All you got to do is type in who is

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carry LUTs and you see a much longer resume.

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Speaker 3: But so productivity. And one thing the job numbers didn't

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really elucidate or expand on enough is that the number

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of American born people holding jobs went up and the

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number of foreign born and I don't know whether they're

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illegal or legal went down. So maybe it's not all

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that negative exactly.

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Speaker 1: At the end of the day, the labor the labor

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numbers are important, but they're not so important that we

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make rash decisions in our portfolio. If you're an investor or,

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let's just say, if you're a client of RDS Wealth,

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we are not going out based off of one labor

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report or another and buying or selling any individual stock

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or position. We're not changing your philosophy around your plan,

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or what type of return we're seeking, or what type

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of risk tolerance we may be taken. These numbers are

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really out there for important people to make important decisions,

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which is why it's important that these numbers are right.

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And in the defense of our current administration, it definitely

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could have been handled differently, but the result was supported

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by data that we made a mistake. It was a

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significant mistake, and whatever it is that we need to

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fix it, it needs to be fixed. These labor reports

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need to be accurate, especially in times like this, where

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even the FED chair himself says we are certainly high

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in relation to neutral. The FED rate is higher than

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it probably needs to be if we wanted to be

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neutral in our policies what he's saying. So it's likely

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that had we've seen these numbers again, I think a

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twenty five basis point cut would would have certainly been

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in discussion and probably came to fruition at the last meeting.

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Now we have to wait till September, and Carrie, you know,

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I don't necessarily think that it's going to hurt us

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or help us. Per se if we get a twenty

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five basis point cut. But if that's all we get

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this year, I think the market will be a little

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bit disappointed. It has priced in much more than that,

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in my opinion.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, you know, the dollar has been weak, so maybe,

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rightfully Powell is concerned about that.

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Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, that's the other side of the coin, you know.

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On the other hand, Powell has every right to say,

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we're data driven, and the data just hasn't really supported

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a rate cut. Data driven FED no rate cuts up

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to this point. Well, if you go back and look

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at the data, Donald Trump can complain, and he can

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certainly want a rate cut, and he has an argument

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to make that it would make the paying down of

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the debt easier, but that's not the fed's prerogative. That's

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not in the FED scope. And when they're looking at

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their two sides that they need to make sure they're

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maintaining inflation and labor, well neither of those really call

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for any immediate action. There's sometimes no action is a

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good action, and that's the stance that the FED has taken,

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especially with a weaker dollar.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, rightfully, so, and you know we're not like historically,

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the rates are not high. Now, right, you could argue

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that mortgage rates maybe are one hundred basis points higher

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than they should be, But a five percent mortgage when

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I grew up well, in the sixties it was two

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three percent, but in the seventies and eighties it was five.

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You know, god who went up to twenty something percent.

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Five percent over time is a normalized rate. So I

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don't think you can complain that Powell has effectively normalized

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interest rates.

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Speaker 1: You're right. And you know the thing is, anybody can

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complain about anything they want, and clearly Donald Trump our

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plaints until he gets his way, right, Yeah, exactly, you're

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supposed for that. You're supposed to complain. But when you

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look at it from the scope of history, you're right.

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And if you look at the labor market from the

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scope of history, we're we're not in dire need of

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a rate cut. The labor market's not weak at all.

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Even with the most recent revision, it's not weak. It's

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can get a lot worse. And you know, it's that

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old adage of if if you lose your job, it's

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a recession. Oh excuse me, if your neighbor loses his job,

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it's a recession. If you lose your job. It's a depression.

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That old adage holds true in many walks of life.

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And when it's hard for us to purchase a house,

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that the appreciation has went through roof. See because in

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the sixties and seventies, and especially in the eighties, when

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interest rates were at twelve and fifteen percent for purchasing house,

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home values were what three times less than what they

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are now, four times less than what they are now.

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So it's all relative to an extent. And if you

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ask me, I think that the market as a whole

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has gotten spoiled. We have talked about this in past shows,

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the Sugar High, right, their Sugar High, and the FED

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at one point was handing out pixie sticks, continuing the

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cut rates, continuing the cut rates, and at the end

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of the day, twenty twenty five just hasn't given us

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the pixie sticks that the Fed had promised at the

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beginning of the year and that the market had desired.

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But AI and solid earnings and a new trade agreement

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across the globe has led the market higher in spite

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of the Fed's decision.

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Speaker 3: Totally. Yeah. So at some point though, they will be

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cutting rates, won't they.

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Speaker 1: They will be cutting rates. It's very likely. You know,

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our stance here at lads Wealthcarey has been we expected

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honestly to have one by the end of summer, and again,

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had the labor statistics come out, I think that would

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have came to fruition. Now we have three meetings left,

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and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a cut

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at all three of them.

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Speaker 3: So twenty five fifty basis points they'll have to make

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up for what they didn't do this month.

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Speaker 1: Right, possibly, possibly, I wouldn't be shocked at that at all.

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Seventy five point cut by the end of the year

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is certainly on our Bengo card. Fifty is almost a

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shoe in in our opinion. And what is it three?

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If I'm not mistaken, we have three three additional meetings

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for the rest of the year to make it happen.

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So we're looking at.

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Speaker 3: Maybe we'll get a total of one hundred basis points

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off the rates by the end of the year.

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Speaker 1: And then guess what, and then guess what? Donald Trump

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was right again, isn't that crazy? It's wild? It's work? Yeah, no,

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please go ahead.

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Speaker 3: So what are you making of the deficit and the tariffs,

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which is bringing the deficits down dramatically. Right, Oh sure, sure.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, in a perfect world, I think

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Donald Trump has an incredible mission and a vision for

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what tariffs could be, and American people could get behind

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this to eliminate the need for income tax and to

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bring in enough tariff income. The only issue with that

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is that if we really want to onshore companies, then

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tariffs eventually could very easily go to zero if everybody's

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making everything in America. Again, if we're in a theoretical world,

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if everybody is making everything in America, then there are

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no tariffs, or at least no tariff income. So you know,

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at the root of this, I think that the tax code.

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I know we're shifting here completely, but the tax code

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should certainly be reviewed. Some sort of overhaul about the

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tax code and how we pay taxes is something that

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has has been front and center for the last six

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to eight months. And understanding that tariffs could theoretically, for

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the short term, eliminate the need for income tax. In theory,

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I don't think that the math would work out, but

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in theory, uh, I would love to see someone step

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up and say, now it's finally time for us to

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consider a consumption tax across America. Now we have illegal

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immigrants spending money to buy things and paying for a

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national tax. Now we have billionaires spending money to buy

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their yachts and paying a national income tax. It's not

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income tax any longer. It's just a higher sales tax

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that goes to the nation's budget. You know.

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Speaker 3: In effect, the tariffs are a surrogate for that. When

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I think, because they're strictly consumption based stuff, you know,

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I could get hit with it and the way he's

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structuring it. Certain things we got to buy energy whatever

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less tariff there or no tariff, and other things we

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got to hire tariffund Well, it's interesting phenomena and appreciate

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you coming on.

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Speaker 1: Dale.

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Speaker 3: Just tell us where do we find you? How do

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we connect with you?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Kerrie, anybody who is interested can tune into our podcast.

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It's The Retirement Matter Show with Dale smothers. Find us

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there our Dswealth dot Com. Ourdswealth dot Com will get

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you to our website. Our entire team is here standing

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by to answer any questions or help you in your retirement.

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As chat GBT said, we'll start and end with this

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retirees face a very unique set of challenges and our objective,

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our goals every single day, is to help navigate those

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complexities around the income phase of retirement planning. We have

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our podcast that hones in on that specifically, everything from

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living happy and with the positive state of mind to

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how we keep the bank account from running dry in

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retirement ears. We help you with that in every aspect.

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So again the Retirement Matter Show with Dale Smothers. It's

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the Retirement Matters Podcast or Rdswealth dot com.

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Speaker 3: All right, thanks so pleasure, Thank you, Kay, talk to

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again soon. Questions comments, klatcarrielts dot com. Link to Dell

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sites in the show notes of this interview on Financial

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Survival Network dot com. If you go there, we just

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asked you sign up for you free newsletter like over

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seventy thousand people are receiving it now. Dale, appreciate you

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coming on. We'll talk to you again soon.

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Speaker 1: Appreciate you, Kay, talk soent.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network your

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solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to

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Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,