WEBVTT 1 00:00:30.920 --> 00:00:33.719 Welcome to mid Rats with sal from Commander Salamander, an 2 00:00:33.799 --> 00:00:37.079 Eagle one from Eagle Speak at Seer Shore your home 3 00:00:37.119 --> 00:00:40.439 for a discussion of national security issues and all things maritime. 4 00:00:41.759 --> 00:00:44.280 Good day everyone, Glad to have you on board for 5 00:00:44.320 --> 00:00:47.960 another edition of mid Rats and we are live today. 6 00:00:48.000 --> 00:00:50.479 So if you are with that esteem cohort that is 7 00:00:50.759 --> 00:00:53.119 with us Live, I'd like to invite you to go 8 00:00:53.159 --> 00:00:55.320 on over and hop in the chat room. We'll be 9 00:00:55.439 --> 00:00:57.640 monitoring during the course of the show, and if you 10 00:00:57.640 --> 00:01:00.479 have some observations you want to share, that's the place 11 00:01:00.520 --> 00:01:02.079 to do it. And also if there's a question you 12 00:01:02.119 --> 00:01:04.599 would like for us to ask our guests during the 13 00:01:04.640 --> 00:01:06.959 course of the next hour, put that in there and 14 00:01:07.000 --> 00:01:09.079 we'll do our best to try to grab it and 15 00:01:09.120 --> 00:01:11.840 fold it into the conversation. And I always want to 16 00:01:11.840 --> 00:01:13.959 do the altar call as well. If this is your 17 00:01:13.959 --> 00:01:15.519 first time at mid Rats, or if you've been a 18 00:01:15.519 --> 00:01:18.079 regular listener to mid Rats and you have it already, 19 00:01:18.439 --> 00:01:23.840 going over to Spotify, Spreaker, iTunes, wherever you get your podcasts, 20 00:01:23.840 --> 00:01:26.719 find mid Rats and go ahead and subscribe that way. 21 00:01:26.959 --> 00:01:29.560 If you can't join us live, you can catch us 22 00:01:29.560 --> 00:01:33.120 at a time This more on your convenience. In today's show, 23 00:01:33.519 --> 00:01:36.400 we're going to try to address the late breaking news. 24 00:01:36.439 --> 00:01:38.959 It's funny how that works out is if you find 25 00:01:39.000 --> 00:01:42.319 yourself going through your news feed and you're trying to 26 00:01:42.359 --> 00:01:45.680 get your mind about what's going on in Syria when 27 00:01:45.719 --> 00:01:49.879 the damn broke, frozen conflicts don't freeze forever, and lo 28 00:01:49.959 --> 00:01:54.040 and behold, we find ourselves here on Sunday, the day 29 00:01:54.079 --> 00:01:57.560 after Pearl Harbor Day, that Asad and his family and 30 00:01:57.599 --> 00:02:02.200 a few of his little staff have departed to Moscow, 31 00:02:02.640 --> 00:02:05.959 which opens up a new chapter in a very long 32 00:02:06.439 --> 00:02:10.479 running story of the conflict in Syria that involves a 33 00:02:10.520 --> 00:02:13.520 lot of their neighbors and some major power, not just 34 00:02:13.560 --> 00:02:16.919 locally but internationally as well. And if you're concerned about 35 00:02:17.400 --> 00:02:22.639 the jihadist organizations that have been part of our day 36 00:02:22.680 --> 00:02:26.199 to day life for decades, the instability that we've seen 37 00:02:26.680 --> 00:02:29.800 in Europe and other countries even in our hemisphere, about 38 00:02:30.159 --> 00:02:33.800 mass migration, the rights to religious minorities in the Middle East, 39 00:02:33.879 --> 00:02:37.199 human suffering, well, this is a good good way to 40 00:02:37.199 --> 00:02:40.280 get a handle on all those players and what we 41 00:02:40.400 --> 00:02:42.639 should be looking for and having your scan as the 42 00:02:42.639 --> 00:02:46.159 events in Syria move forward and kind of help tackle 43 00:02:46.240 --> 00:02:50.000 these big pixel topics with us Today is returning guests. 44 00:02:50.280 --> 00:02:53.840 Seth Fulsom, Colonel, United States Marine Corps, retired. He's the 45 00:02:53.879 --> 00:02:57.520 author of an exceptional series of nonfiction books. His most 46 00:02:57.599 --> 00:03:01.000 recent will be Nothing Here Worth Dying for Task Force 47 00:03:01.120 --> 00:03:03.840 Line in Iraq. It's coming out in February, but you 48 00:03:03.879 --> 00:03:05.560 can pre order if you want to. And we're going 49 00:03:05.599 --> 00:03:06.879 to talk to him about the book here in a 50 00:03:06.879 --> 00:03:09.280 few months, I hope. But for now we're gonna just 51 00:03:09.360 --> 00:03:12.280 kind of use that as a kicking off point to 52 00:03:12.919 --> 00:03:15.599 talk about the events in Syria. Seth, Welcome back to 53 00:03:15.680 --> 00:03:16.159 mid Rights. 54 00:03:16.800 --> 00:03:19.120 Hey, thanks guys, it's great to be back here with 55 00:03:19.199 --> 00:03:20.680 you all. 56 00:03:20.719 --> 00:03:22.759 We mentioned in the title of your book it says 57 00:03:22.800 --> 00:03:27.000 task Force Lion and Iraq, and so people go, okay, Iraq, 58 00:03:27.080 --> 00:03:31.039 that's not Syria. But the events that you were involved 59 00:03:31.039 --> 00:03:34.400 in and the folks you helped lead and Task Force 60 00:03:34.520 --> 00:03:37.360 Lion that you wrote your book about, it has a 61 00:03:37.400 --> 00:03:39.960 lot to do with the events going on in Syria 62 00:03:40.080 --> 00:03:42.919 right now and some of those players, some of those 63 00:03:44.199 --> 00:03:47.759 confused international streams talk for a little bit as a 64 00:03:47.759 --> 00:03:50.960 stepping off point because there are there have been Americans 65 00:03:51.039 --> 00:03:54.840 on the ground in Syria and in northern Iraq for 66 00:03:54.919 --> 00:03:57.719 a very very long time that are under fire right 67 00:03:57.719 --> 00:04:00.400 now and just kind of give people an idea, you know, 68 00:04:00.639 --> 00:04:03.400 what was that connection and how does that connection bring 69 00:04:03.479 --> 00:04:05.080 us through to today's concerns. 70 00:04:06.199 --> 00:04:08.719 Yeah, thanks, that's a that's a great question, you know, 71 00:04:10.039 --> 00:04:13.400 so like try to try to set the ground here. 72 00:04:13.719 --> 00:04:15.759 You know. Task Force Allon was a it was an 73 00:04:15.759 --> 00:04:18.839 advised and assist task force and it had its its 74 00:04:18.879 --> 00:04:22.279 origins in the early days of the counter ISIS campaign 75 00:04:22.439 --> 00:04:25.240 in a Rock and Syria. The Marine Corps ponied up 76 00:04:25.279 --> 00:04:27.879 a couple of Advised and Assists teams, one based at 77 00:04:27.879 --> 00:04:30.920 Alasade and one based at Alta Cootam. There's two air 78 00:04:30.920 --> 00:04:34.720 bases there, and their whole role was to advise, assist 79 00:04:34.920 --> 00:04:38.560 and enable the Rocky security forces in the fight against ISIS. 80 00:04:38.920 --> 00:04:42.120 And so by the time my team got there in 81 00:04:42.160 --> 00:04:47.199 twenty seventeen, really what the mission was still overall focused 82 00:04:47.240 --> 00:04:51.680 on countering ISIS, expelling ISIS out of a rock, but 83 00:04:51.759 --> 00:04:56.120 the conflict had really it really morphed into something much 84 00:04:56.199 --> 00:04:58.920 broader than that. And one of the one of the 85 00:04:59.000 --> 00:05:02.920 groups that I won't say we got sideways with, but 86 00:05:03.079 --> 00:05:06.000 was really a constant thorn in our side the entire 87 00:05:06.079 --> 00:05:09.120 time were the she and militia groups that were part 88 00:05:09.199 --> 00:05:13.439 of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Front. And what we what 89 00:05:13.480 --> 00:05:19.399 we learned very quickly was that, you know, all of 90 00:05:19.439 --> 00:05:23.160 the she and militia groups, we called them the SMGs. 91 00:05:23.800 --> 00:05:27.439 They were part of the PMF, the overall Rocky Popular 92 00:05:27.519 --> 00:05:31.839 Mobilization Front, but not all PMF units were SMG's. And 93 00:05:31.839 --> 00:05:35.079 what we learned from our leaders at c Jtfoir and 94 00:05:35.319 --> 00:05:38.639 there and the coalition is conflated the two at your peril, 95 00:05:39.360 --> 00:05:42.120 and even over time we were compelled to not even 96 00:05:42.279 --> 00:05:46.920 refer to those groups as she and militia groups or SMGs. 97 00:05:46.959 --> 00:05:50.519 So we were highly encouraged to use you know, less 98 00:05:50.560 --> 00:05:54.480 confrontational terms like non compliant PMF. And there was a 99 00:05:54.519 --> 00:05:58.800 reason for that, And the reason was that in twenty fourteen, 100 00:05:59.439 --> 00:06:03.879 when when ISIS was just barreling through a rock, cutting 101 00:06:03.879 --> 00:06:06.439 through the country like a like a hot knife through butter, 102 00:06:07.360 --> 00:06:10.519 the Iraqi, the uniformed Iraqi security forces, primarily the I 103 00:06:10.560 --> 00:06:14.120 Rocky Army, they pretty much crumbled and uh and they 104 00:06:14.199 --> 00:06:18.319 went in all directions and and largely allowed Isis to 105 00:06:18.360 --> 00:06:21.519 take over large swaths of a rock, and the only 106 00:06:21.720 --> 00:06:25.839 unit who really stood up initially against the invading ISIS 107 00:06:25.839 --> 00:06:30.120 forces were the SA militia groups, groups like teb Asbola 108 00:06:30.519 --> 00:06:33.959 who we referred to as ah and the Saba Hawk 109 00:06:34.000 --> 00:06:37.399 Brigade which you know AA b Or, and these small 110 00:06:37.759 --> 00:06:43.439 Shea militia groups, the SMGs. They were these mobile, in 111 00:06:43.480 --> 00:06:46.959 some cases lightly armed, in some cases heavily armed, but 112 00:06:47.439 --> 00:06:50.920 very aggressive forces that that didn't buckle in the face 113 00:06:51.120 --> 00:06:54.160 of ISIS. And so over time there was the realization 114 00:06:54.319 --> 00:06:57.279 there in the coalition and especially in the Iraqi government 115 00:06:58.160 --> 00:07:02.360 that it hadn't been for the militia groups, then ISIS 116 00:07:02.360 --> 00:07:05.079 would have they would have lodged themselves in Baghdad, and 117 00:07:05.079 --> 00:07:09.120 and probably the whole thing would have been lost. What 118 00:07:09.120 --> 00:07:11.800 what comp and so and with that was the understanding 119 00:07:11.839 --> 00:07:17.720 that once ISIS was finally expelled from a rock, the 120 00:07:17.879 --> 00:07:19.920 s m g s and the p MF they they 121 00:07:19.920 --> 00:07:23.000 were going to be an enduring part of the you know, 122 00:07:23.040 --> 00:07:27.040 the security apparatus in a rock. What made that so 123 00:07:27.279 --> 00:07:30.160 challenging and difficult for a lot of people like me 124 00:07:30.240 --> 00:07:33.000 and my team to accept was that a lot of 125 00:07:33.040 --> 00:07:38.040 those those SMGs, they were directly influenced if not flat 126 00:07:38.079 --> 00:07:43.399 out controlled and directed by by Iran. They're you know, 127 00:07:43.480 --> 00:07:47.439 largely supported, influenced, and and given their marching orders, and 128 00:07:47.480 --> 00:07:50.160 so as task Force a lion during the time that 129 00:07:50.199 --> 00:07:52.399 I was over there, as we worked with the Iraqi 130 00:07:52.480 --> 00:07:57.120 security forces to move farther and farther west and expel 131 00:07:57.360 --> 00:07:59.959 the ISIS forces that were there in western aland Bar Proper. 132 00:08:02.439 --> 00:08:06.240 In each operation that we did with the Iraqi army, 133 00:08:06.959 --> 00:08:08.920 the EMF also had to be a part of it, 134 00:08:10.240 --> 00:08:14.879 but as an American commander there, I was prohibited from 135 00:08:14.959 --> 00:08:18.399 coordinating with or working with the SMGs. We had tribal 136 00:08:18.439 --> 00:08:21.319 militia forces with us who were also technically part of 137 00:08:21.360 --> 00:08:26.240 the PMF, but they were largely Sunni tribal forces who 138 00:08:27.319 --> 00:08:31.439 worked with the Iraqi commander that I was advising and 139 00:08:31.839 --> 00:08:35.759 the soft units that worked alongside us. They had the 140 00:08:35.799 --> 00:08:39.600 authority to coordinate and work with and partner with the 141 00:08:39.679 --> 00:08:43.720 Sunni tribal militia forces, but like me, they didn't have 142 00:08:43.759 --> 00:08:47.559 the authority to work with the SMGs, And so the 143 00:08:47.639 --> 00:08:51.879 SMGs and the other PMF units they were they had 144 00:08:51.960 --> 00:08:54.360 to be a part of every operation we did, largely 145 00:08:54.720 --> 00:08:57.919 especially the final operation we did that that moved on 146 00:08:59.120 --> 00:09:02.080 the border town of Time in October and November of 147 00:09:02.519 --> 00:09:08.799 twenty seventeen. And so by the time the big operation 148 00:09:08.919 --> 00:09:12.279 that we did called Desert Lion with the IS, by 149 00:09:12.279 --> 00:09:16.039 the time that was largely complete and the Iraqi Prime 150 00:09:16.080 --> 00:09:21.399 Minister declared al Ambar Province liberated and secured and Ice expelled, 151 00:09:22.679 --> 00:09:25.399 we still had the challenge of just a host of 152 00:09:25.440 --> 00:09:28.799 these SMGs there in western al Mbar with US and 153 00:09:28.840 --> 00:09:31.279 then beginning to kind of do their own thing, taking 154 00:09:31.360 --> 00:09:36.080 direction from no one but people like Abuel Mahandas and 155 00:09:36.159 --> 00:09:40.759 cost some Silamani and their masters in Iran. And so meanwhile, 156 00:09:41.200 --> 00:09:44.240 while all of this was going on, but the ISIS 157 00:09:44.240 --> 00:09:49.720 fight in Syria was going heavy as well, and you know, 158 00:09:49.799 --> 00:09:54.879 we had that we the US and the Coalition had 159 00:09:55.039 --> 00:09:59.080 units that were in Syria supporting the Syrian Democratic forces 160 00:09:59.200 --> 00:10:02.720 who were the you know, the counter ISIS largely Kurdish 161 00:10:02.879 --> 00:10:05.799 militia forces that they were, but they were also opposed 162 00:10:05.879 --> 00:10:12.840 to uh Assade rule. So this whole thing became this 163 00:10:12.840 --> 00:10:17.519 this really like hard to decipher mosaic of all these 164 00:10:17.559 --> 00:10:23.080 different units that all had different plans, different different alliances, 165 00:10:23.240 --> 00:10:26.519 different capabilities, and it was just you know, in a nutshell, 166 00:10:26.960 --> 00:10:30.120 it was really hard to understand, and at the same 167 00:10:30.159 --> 00:10:32.519 time it was hard to do the things that we 168 00:10:32.639 --> 00:10:35.879 needed to do to support the Rocky Army without getting 169 00:10:36.039 --> 00:10:39.440 sideways with the PMF and the SMGs, but at the 170 00:10:39.480 --> 00:10:43.840 same time maintaining our own force protector posture because we 171 00:10:44.039 --> 00:10:47.120 were unsure of, you know how what was going to 172 00:10:47.159 --> 00:10:49.679 happen if we had to deal with these people had 173 00:10:49.720 --> 00:10:52.759 on because one of the things that we always remembered 174 00:10:52.919 --> 00:10:56.360 was there were elements in some of these SMGs. Some 175 00:10:56.399 --> 00:10:58.840 of these were the same guys that were fighting the 176 00:10:58.919 --> 00:11:02.000 Americans in their early days of the Iraq War, and 177 00:11:02.039 --> 00:11:05.519 so there was really no love loss between the Americans 178 00:11:05.519 --> 00:11:06.120 and the SMG. 179 00:11:09.279 --> 00:11:13.159 Well, it appears that Abu Mohammad al Jilani, who's the 180 00:11:13.200 --> 00:11:16.759 head of the HTS, is a Sunni Muslim, and which 181 00:11:16.759 --> 00:11:19.600 would make him, I guess opposed to the Iranian Shia 182 00:11:19.879 --> 00:11:23.000 Muslim forces. But he was he was part of Al Qayiti, 183 00:11:23.120 --> 00:11:25.440 was part of ISIS at some point. I mean, is 184 00:11:25.519 --> 00:11:28.279 it possible that that that person who was in that 185 00:11:28.320 --> 00:11:33.519 position could convert from being a global jihadist to being 186 00:11:33.559 --> 00:11:36.879 a let's free Syrian from the Assads and go from there. 187 00:11:37.320 --> 00:11:40.399 Yeah, exactly. I mean that's what makes this whole thing 188 00:11:40.519 --> 00:11:43.360 so complicated and just I mean flat out crazy, right 189 00:11:43.679 --> 00:11:47.600 because you know everybody is now saying, all right, Jilani 190 00:11:47.799 --> 00:11:51.799 and HTS they're in there, they deposed Bachelor al Assade, 191 00:11:52.000 --> 00:11:54.320 and everything's going to be rainbows and unicorns after this. 192 00:11:54.559 --> 00:11:59.080 Well maybe maybe not. Like you said, Jilani was a silaucist. 193 00:11:59.399 --> 00:12:04.120 He was a uh you know, his his organization wasn't 194 00:12:04.320 --> 00:12:08.200 was an offshoot of al Qaeda. He fought with al 195 00:12:08.279 --> 00:12:12.919 Qaeda in Iraq, and he has publicly said that he 196 00:12:13.080 --> 00:12:17.320 is trying to moderate the position of HTS and that 197 00:12:17.519 --> 00:12:21.799 organization to make it more inclusive, less less extremist. But 198 00:12:21.879 --> 00:12:24.200 at the end of the day, HTS is still on 199 00:12:24.240 --> 00:12:28.919 the US Foreign Terror Organization's list. Here here's the thing, 200 00:12:29.000 --> 00:12:31.919 this is, this is what concerns me. And I'm always 201 00:12:32.000 --> 00:12:36.639 always wary of making comparisons to to other wars, other conflicts, 202 00:12:36.679 --> 00:12:39.159 because there will always be people that come out and say, nope, 203 00:12:39.200 --> 00:12:43.960 it's completely different. And that said, what this really reminds 204 00:12:44.000 --> 00:12:46.240 me of is it reminds me a lot of the 205 00:12:46.279 --> 00:12:50.360 Afghan Civil War, where you know, there was a Soviet 206 00:12:50.399 --> 00:12:54.759 backed government in Afghanistan after the Soviets left. The minute 207 00:12:54.799 --> 00:12:58.360 Soviet aid dried up, the Afghan government in the Afghan 208 00:12:58.399 --> 00:13:03.159 military couldn't defend itself against all the different factions in 209 00:13:03.240 --> 00:13:05.960 the Northern Alliance and then through the Taliban in there 210 00:13:06.000 --> 00:13:09.399 as well. And at the end of the day, the 211 00:13:09.519 --> 00:13:13.000 units they marched on Cobble and took over was the Taliban. 212 00:13:13.720 --> 00:13:15.600 And and I think that there were a lot of 213 00:13:15.600 --> 00:13:18.679 people out that there were that were like, hey, yeah, great, 214 00:13:18.840 --> 00:13:23.159 the freedom fighters they have, they've won. But everybody knows 215 00:13:23.240 --> 00:13:27.639 what happened after that was there was okay, great, they've 216 00:13:27.679 --> 00:13:30.559 taken over the Afghan government in the country. But then 217 00:13:30.600 --> 00:13:33.159 the infighting begins. And I think that that's something that 218 00:13:33.240 --> 00:13:36.360 happens a lot of times when there is a government 219 00:13:36.399 --> 00:13:40.360 that's overthrown when there's a revolution. Is that victory over 220 00:13:40.440 --> 00:13:44.039 the defending government, that's just the first step, and what 221 00:13:44.240 --> 00:13:46.559 comes next is going to be the real question. I 222 00:13:46.559 --> 00:13:49.440 think there's going to be a lot of infighting between 223 00:13:49.480 --> 00:13:51.720 the different groups. There's going to be a lot of bloodshed, 224 00:13:52.120 --> 00:13:54.080 and you know, ultimately the people who are going to 225 00:13:54.120 --> 00:13:57.279 pay the price are going to be the Syrians. They've 226 00:13:57.279 --> 00:13:59.720 already been dealing with this, and so you know to 227 00:14:00.840 --> 00:14:05.399 eleven or so, and really throughout most of Asad's almost 228 00:14:05.600 --> 00:14:08.279 twenty five years in power, they're going to continue to 229 00:14:08.279 --> 00:14:10.200 be the ones that pay the price, just like the 230 00:14:10.240 --> 00:14:13.000 Afghanis war in Afghanistan after the civil war. 231 00:14:15.120 --> 00:14:16.960 It's when I was trying to get my head around it. 232 00:14:17.039 --> 00:14:20.080 And when you look at there's a variety of pretty 233 00:14:20.120 --> 00:14:25.000 good maps out there that outline because it is it 234 00:14:25.039 --> 00:14:27.159 is a nation with a majority but a lot of 235 00:14:27.679 --> 00:14:31.480 not insignificant minorities, and these maps will outline, you know, 236 00:14:31.519 --> 00:14:37.080 where your religious groups are. Mostly in the west. When 237 00:14:37.120 --> 00:14:43.279 the Sunni hst took Hama and then Homes Homes or 238 00:14:43.320 --> 00:14:46.279 ever you pronounced it, and then moved on to Damascus, 239 00:14:46.320 --> 00:14:50.480 they separated the coastal area which is mostly Shia and Christian, 240 00:14:50.639 --> 00:14:53.559 and over near the Goal on you have the drus 241 00:14:53.759 --> 00:14:56.200 And who we've been partnered with for a long time. 242 00:14:56.320 --> 00:14:59.440 To the east, I think it's like ten fifteen percent 243 00:14:59.480 --> 00:15:03.120 of the population are Kourage and Yezide over in the 244 00:15:03.159 --> 00:15:06.440 far East. But in that juicy middle you've got the 245 00:15:06.519 --> 00:15:12.000 cities and it's thirteen percent of the population were Shia Alawite, 246 00:15:12.000 --> 00:15:16.200 mostly who the Asad clan came from and I ran 247 00:15:16.440 --> 00:15:19.919 worked with them Hesbla that's been taken a beating pretty hard. 248 00:15:20.360 --> 00:15:23.240 So you have a very similar mix where just like 249 00:15:23.480 --> 00:15:27.720 in Afghanistan, we're doing our best to figure out the 250 00:15:27.799 --> 00:15:30.440 largest cohort, which were the Pashtune, but then you had 251 00:15:30.480 --> 00:15:34.519 the tadd Jeeks, the Juzbecks, you had the Hazara who 252 00:15:34.600 --> 00:15:37.440 are also Shia in the middle of the country. So 253 00:15:38.399 --> 00:15:41.240 a lot of people were thinking, Okay, the rebel forces 254 00:15:41.480 --> 00:15:44.200 have taken Damascus, and it's kind of like that meme 255 00:15:44.399 --> 00:15:48.039 from the movie that came out last year Civil War 256 00:15:48.120 --> 00:15:51.600 where it's like, oh, you're Syrian rebel group. What type 257 00:15:51.600 --> 00:15:52.679 of rebel group are you? 258 00:15:53.279 --> 00:15:54.960 Yeah? Exactly exactly. 259 00:15:55.799 --> 00:16:01.759 So this really if people expect this situation to become 260 00:16:02.080 --> 00:16:04.799 really peaceful, I don't see how you get there, because 261 00:16:04.840 --> 00:16:08.120 the only secular power that's been around there was the 262 00:16:08.159 --> 00:16:12.240 old early starting them was the nineteen fifties, the Bath 263 00:16:12.440 --> 00:16:15.080 Party in Syria, just like you know Hussein's Bath Party 264 00:16:15.080 --> 00:16:17.279 in Iraq that that'sn't a dust been in history, and 265 00:16:17.320 --> 00:16:20.559 what's left behind with there's going to be no love 266 00:16:20.639 --> 00:16:23.720 lost because of the Iranian proxies and what they've done, 267 00:16:23.919 --> 00:16:27.320 and it's it's going to be a mess, And I 268 00:16:27.399 --> 00:16:30.759 think what's dangerous And I'd be interested for you because 269 00:16:31.240 --> 00:16:35.159 part of it is we have a close connection to 270 00:16:36.000 --> 00:16:41.120 the Kourage and Yezidis are erstwhile NATO allies Turkey, they 271 00:16:41.159 --> 00:16:43.559 have troops in country, they have their own little rubber 272 00:16:43.559 --> 00:16:47.240 group that they're supporting. There's the Russians in the far west. 273 00:16:47.399 --> 00:16:50.039 So it's not just it's worse than Afghanistan in a 274 00:16:50.080 --> 00:16:53.159 lot of regards is you don't have the native battle 275 00:16:53.240 --> 00:16:58.080 going on, but you also have state actors, some of 276 00:16:58.080 --> 00:17:02.240 which border it, that are actively involved internally, not just 277 00:17:02.320 --> 00:17:06.880 with proxies but actual there. Russia has other distractions. But 278 00:17:07.359 --> 00:17:11.319 I keep looking for what the Turkish game is going 279 00:17:11.359 --> 00:17:13.160 to be as this chaos goes forward. 280 00:17:14.160 --> 00:17:16.640 Yeah, I mean that that, you know, you hit it 281 00:17:16.680 --> 00:17:19.200 on the head when you were talking about the different 282 00:17:19.599 --> 00:17:23.480 religious and ethnic groups and the localities of where they are. 283 00:17:23.640 --> 00:17:25.440 You know, there was a there was a great map 284 00:17:25.519 --> 00:17:28.240 that I found yesterday that I was looking at and 285 00:17:28.279 --> 00:17:31.440 I think, I mean it was like from like two 286 00:17:31.440 --> 00:17:34.640 o'clock yesterday, and I think it's already changed. But you 287 00:17:34.720 --> 00:17:39.200 look at these different colors of who's where and it's 288 00:17:39.240 --> 00:17:44.400 a pretty good representation of how the ethnic groups in 289 00:17:44.440 --> 00:17:47.599 that region. And I think everybody knows this. They don't 290 00:17:47.640 --> 00:17:51.240 adhere to international boards. So you have the that Kurdish 291 00:17:51.240 --> 00:17:54.079 population across the northern part of Syria that also stretches 292 00:17:54.119 --> 00:17:58.400 into a rock and into Turkey. And you've got that 293 00:17:58.680 --> 00:18:01.920 the sunny center that goes from you know, the bottom 294 00:18:01.920 --> 00:18:04.000 half of a rock into the center of Syria that 295 00:18:04.039 --> 00:18:06.920 also stretches down into Jordan. So if people looked at 296 00:18:06.920 --> 00:18:10.119 a map that was based more on the ethnic groups, 297 00:18:10.240 --> 00:18:12.279 it would look nothing like you know, what we think 298 00:18:12.279 --> 00:18:14.880 of as the modern day Middle East and the levant 299 00:18:15.119 --> 00:18:17.640 you know that you were talking about the meme of 300 00:18:17.680 --> 00:18:20.839 you know what kind are you? I mean, and all 301 00:18:20.839 --> 00:18:22.920 the different groups in there, And what that reminds me 302 00:18:23.000 --> 00:18:25.240 of is there was a there's a movie that came 303 00:18:25.240 --> 00:18:29.599 out years ago about the genocide in Rwanda, and there's 304 00:18:29.640 --> 00:18:31.279 a scene in there where there are a bunch of 305 00:18:31.279 --> 00:18:35.079 reporters at a press conference and the person from the 306 00:18:35.119 --> 00:18:37.880 Department of State is giving this press conference about you know, 307 00:18:38.240 --> 00:18:41.440 what's happening between the Bouchiers and the Tixies and how 308 00:18:41.519 --> 00:18:43.440 terrible it is and this, you know, we're looking at 309 00:18:43.480 --> 00:18:47.039 a genocide and you know, one of the reporters raises 310 00:18:47.079 --> 00:18:50.680 his hand and says, which side is the good guys? 311 00:18:51.720 --> 00:18:55.240 And and there's no, there's no answer to that. If 312 00:18:55.279 --> 00:18:57.200 you look at the map of what's going on in 313 00:18:57.359 --> 00:19:00.920 Syria and a Rock, and there's no there's no one 314 00:19:01.000 --> 00:19:03.720 group that are the good guys, and it's everybody has 315 00:19:03.759 --> 00:19:06.759 their own interests. Everybody had all these different groups have 316 00:19:06.839 --> 00:19:09.319 their own backers. And I think you know what what 317 00:19:09.359 --> 00:19:12.799 we saw with the Syrian army and and the bachelor 318 00:19:12.799 --> 00:19:17.559 Alissad's regime is when when Russia and Iran and Hasbola, 319 00:19:18.559 --> 00:19:21.119 when when they were overwhelmed by their own issues that 320 00:19:21.160 --> 00:19:24.720 they were dealing with and they just couldn't support Massad. Yeah, 321 00:19:24.960 --> 00:19:28.079 his forces crumbled really quickly. So what you know what 322 00:19:28.119 --> 00:19:31.920 this looks like going forward, I don't know, because, like 323 00:19:32.000 --> 00:19:36.480 you said, Turkey is is one of our significant, significant allies. 324 00:19:36.559 --> 00:19:38.960 We still have interests in a Rock and that's that's 325 00:19:38.960 --> 00:19:41.640 why we're still in there. And at the end of 326 00:19:41.680 --> 00:19:45.160 the day, like you said, you know, I think everybody 327 00:19:45.160 --> 00:19:49.000 can agree that that bachelor Alisade, the guy was a bastard. 328 00:19:49.240 --> 00:19:51.319 You know, there's there's there's no two ways about it, 329 00:19:51.880 --> 00:19:56.319 and and Saddam Hussain was a bastard also. But even 330 00:19:56.519 --> 00:19:58.880 even after I had done two tours in a rock 331 00:19:59.160 --> 00:20:03.319 between two thousand and eight and twenty seventeen as an advisor, 332 00:20:04.359 --> 00:20:07.079 all the way to twenty seventeen and twenty eighteen, when 333 00:20:07.079 --> 00:20:10.079 I would sit down and and just you know, have 334 00:20:10.319 --> 00:20:14.440 chai and smoke some cigarettes with my Rocky partners, they 335 00:20:14.480 --> 00:20:17.680 would still talk about, you know, Saddam was the guy 336 00:20:17.799 --> 00:20:21.200 was a bastard, but he kept this place together. And 337 00:20:21.240 --> 00:20:24.640 that's that's been an underlying theme I think with the 338 00:20:24.799 --> 00:20:28.119 at least with you know, the Iraqi Army, was that 339 00:20:28.200 --> 00:20:32.400 this place fractured after the strong man was gone. And 340 00:20:32.640 --> 00:20:34.359 then I think there's a good chance we're going to 341 00:20:34.400 --> 00:20:37.960 see something like that in Syria as well. Yeah. 342 00:20:38.039 --> 00:20:40.359 One of the interesting aspects of this is that this 343 00:20:40.480 --> 00:20:42.640 seems to be many people are pointing to this being 344 00:20:43.079 --> 00:20:47.440 being bad for Russia, bad for Iran, and I'm thinking, Okay, well, 345 00:20:47.480 --> 00:20:52.839 if this guy is bad speaking of al Jawani, maybe 346 00:20:52.839 --> 00:20:55.839 he's just the has the movie a lot of recording 347 00:20:55.880 --> 00:20:58.880 movies as master Commander. Maybe just the lesser, lesser of 348 00:20:58.880 --> 00:21:01.079 two weavils. I mean, we're just we'll have to go 349 00:21:01.119 --> 00:21:03.240 along for the ride and see what he's actually gonna do. Now, 350 00:21:03.240 --> 00:21:06.000 he did engage and has engaged for a while in 351 00:21:06.039 --> 00:21:10.119 some kind of pr campaign just to show his moderation. 352 00:21:10.759 --> 00:21:13.799 He was, you know, they reopened a Christian church, uh, 353 00:21:14.119 --> 00:21:16.839 and I guess it did or wherever the place is. 354 00:21:17.279 --> 00:21:19.119 And there's some other aspects of what he's been doing 355 00:21:19.160 --> 00:21:21.039 to try and show the world that he's not the 356 00:21:21.319 --> 00:21:24.279 fire breathing monster that we may fear. But I don't 357 00:21:24.319 --> 00:21:26.839 know how much of that it's just some kind of uh, 358 00:21:28.279 --> 00:21:30.240 smokescreen and how much of that is reality. 359 00:21:30.799 --> 00:21:34.240 Well, that's that's a great point. And I think even 360 00:21:34.359 --> 00:21:36.680 to a certain degree, and I have to be mindful 361 00:21:36.680 --> 00:21:38.720 about how I say this, but one of the ways 362 00:21:38.799 --> 00:21:42.440 that has Bulah in Lebanon, one of the ways that 363 00:21:42.480 --> 00:21:47.880 they established and maintained their legitimacy there was they didn't 364 00:21:47.920 --> 00:21:51.559 only focus on the militant arm that went around killing people, 365 00:21:52.200 --> 00:21:55.559 you know. They they really fostered their their political arm 366 00:21:55.599 --> 00:21:59.279 as well, so that they would become part of they 367 00:21:59.319 --> 00:22:01.920 could become part of a government apparatus there, they could 368 00:22:01.920 --> 00:22:05.720 become a ruling organization or a governing organization as it were, 369 00:22:05.839 --> 00:22:10.079 and they're not just focused on you know, violence and 370 00:22:10.079 --> 00:22:13.400 and and overthrow. And I think that's maybe one, maybe 371 00:22:13.400 --> 00:22:17.160 one of the things that differentiates a group like them, 372 00:22:17.319 --> 00:22:20.640 or potentially HTS, from a group like isis IS. I 373 00:22:20.640 --> 00:22:26.319 don't know that ISIS really has a plan to truly govern, 374 00:22:26.559 --> 00:22:29.039 you know that if they're stretching all the way from 375 00:22:29.720 --> 00:22:32.480 Iraq and the Levant all the way down to isis 376 00:22:32.519 --> 00:22:36.400 a down in Central Asia and Afghanistan, I don't know 377 00:22:36.440 --> 00:22:39.720 that they have a plan or an ability to moderate 378 00:22:39.759 --> 00:22:42.759 what they're doing. And to your point, you know, Jilani 379 00:22:42.799 --> 00:22:46.240 and HTS, if you if you think of if he's 380 00:22:46.279 --> 00:22:49.400 a rational actor, you know, maybe he is going to 381 00:22:49.400 --> 00:22:52.640 see it as yet we need to kind of tone 382 00:22:52.680 --> 00:22:57.240 things down a bit and just become, you know, a 383 00:22:57.480 --> 00:23:03.440 a regional burning body that keeps keeps it inside the house, 384 00:23:03.559 --> 00:23:07.240 keeps it inside the family in Syria, and doesn't attempt 385 00:23:07.279 --> 00:23:10.240 to project it outside the borders of that country. Because 386 00:23:10.279 --> 00:23:12.359 I think that that's when you get actors like the 387 00:23:12.440 --> 00:23:15.119 United States and others, that's when we start getting nervous. 388 00:23:15.359 --> 00:23:18.279 Is Hey, Okay, we've got this new group of people 389 00:23:18.279 --> 00:23:21.799 who are in charge there, and what actions are they 390 00:23:21.799 --> 00:23:25.839 going to take outside of their borders. That's going to 391 00:23:25.880 --> 00:23:27.920 compel us to get involved again. 392 00:23:30.839 --> 00:23:33.599 Yeah, I think, you know one of the really big 393 00:23:33.640 --> 00:23:38.359 losers here besides the Syrian people. No I did. I 394 00:23:38.400 --> 00:23:41.599 saw two reports today that on the Turkish border there 395 00:23:41.640 --> 00:23:43.880 are a lot of Syrian refugees who are trying to 396 00:23:43.920 --> 00:23:48.319 go home. So that's that's interesting. If that trend continues, 397 00:23:48.400 --> 00:23:52.440 that's a good secondary indicator that that maybe the applied 398 00:23:52.440 --> 00:23:54.680 optimism that you and Mark were talking about. You know, 399 00:23:54.759 --> 00:23:56.759 maybe this son of a bitch is the best ton 400 00:23:56.759 --> 00:23:59.359 of a bitch we're going to find, and maybe he'll 401 00:23:59.599 --> 00:24:02.880