Speaker 1: What's up, everybody? Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks.
If you are new, we always start the show by
being transparent. Yesterday I did not well. I went two
and four. Overall, my five dollars Tuesday play did not win.
It was the under in the Raptors game. I did
end up making a four percent on a college basketball
play which was a winner. So overall, wasn't a good day.
But yeah, I just got to get back on track.
NBA and college basketball still has been going well overall.
You know, you talked about some good stuff yesterday. How
you doing here today? How was yesterday for you?
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're good Ski. It was a three and two
day collegen pro NBA combined the NBA play. Only one
was Oklahoma City team total over the one seventeen and
a half. They got the one twenty four, so they
did the right thing there. College was a two and
two split, a little bit of a big loss there,
but the NBA made up for it made us a winner.
So happy to take that every day. We'll look forward
to doing it again here with a little bit bigger
card in the NBA than what we had yesterday.
Speaker 1: Up, you're muted, y'all. Don't know that I love this
card that much, but I'm gonna try to talk some
stuff out. It can't go worse than yesterday's NBA, so
let's go on rotation order. That means first stuff for
today is Denver and Indiana Open. Seven and a half
looks like eight or eight and a half depending where
you shop. Total went up a little bit from two
thirty five and a half to two thirty six and
a half. And I do need to refresh the injury
report because we know what ten thirty new stuff starts
to come out for the Pacers. Same guys, same five guys.
I'm sorry, same four guys out. Burphy's now questionable for
the Nuggets. Yolkic is probable, Murray is questionable. No Bron
Gordon or Strawther. I don't love this Pacers team at all,
but I mean, I don't know. I'm just feeling like
you're just starting to get too many people out. I
know you used to have Jokic, but starting to just
miss a lot for this Denver team that I don't
think has the most depth and just a little bit
too many points in my opinion for the state of
the Nuggets right now. So I'll lean Pacers, but the total.
You know, the Pacers defensive rating is top five last
five games. But I can't help but think, you know,
having the point guards healthier, they're just gonna want to
run and get back to how they play basketball. So
lean Pacers, lean over. How do you view this one?
Speaker 2: You know, yeah, I could see that Denver has done
nothing this season to make us want to play unders
in their games, certainly defensively. It happened again the other night,
right they gave up one thirty one to the Mavericks
lose that game straight up one. I think if they
weren't coming off a straight up loss, I would have
looked their direction. But then the number is what it is.
Up to eight and a half now seems a little
bit high. So the only way to look for me
would be toward the total and at that two thirty
six mark. Like you say, Ski, Indiana, last five games,
not a lot of offense, but a lot of defense.
It seems to me when Denver's right, they score on
everybody anyway, so that shouldn't matter where they're concerned. As
long as Murray's in the game. We'll see if Jamal
Murray plays. Obviously, can't make a move until we know
that for sure. But I would agree with you that
the way to get to Denver here, which is in
the first this is travel from Denver to Indiana, would
be to run on them with the backcourt that they
have intact now. So the other night was disappointing. We'll
get to the Cleveland side of that Indiana Cleveland game later.
But I don't know, and I'll probably say this again
when we talk about Cleveland. I don't know if we
sell out of Indiana off of one result, because I
think we were both high on Indiana plus points the
other night, or if we come right back with them
here plus points here. It does seem like a large
number for a team. I'll use your phrase, when you
can't get stops, how can we trust you in Denver
just doesn't get stops right now, not enough to cover
eight and a half on the road at least. Could
be a look at Indiana, could be a look towards over,
but I have not played either.
Speaker 1: All right, We'll go to the next game. And went
from five and a half Orlando up to eight, and
total went from two thirty three and a half as
high as two thirty six I believe out there injuries.
We still know a Pallos out Castleton and Mo Wagner out.
Same rio for the Spurs as of right now Wemby
Castle McLoughlin. The Spurs are on the second of a
back to back third and four nights, fourth and six.
The Magic do have the rest advantage here. I've been
playing good basketball. I mean, they're the third best offensive
rated team last five games. They're gonna be the better
defense in this game, better rebounding team even versus you know.
I can't help but think it's just a magic spot.
I don't like the idea of laying as many points
with them, but it's magic or passed maybe magic team
total over They've been scoring like in the one twenties
every game I think of except for one, Lady. Yeah,
six of the last seven games I'm looking at here,
So either magic or magic team total. How do you
view this one? Vino?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I bet it, ski, I bet the magic here,
and I bet it specifically on the spot. This schedule
maker not kind to the Spurs. I mean they came
off a four game road trip, played one home game,
only to go right out the next night for another
four game road trip. Maybe we look as this road
trip progresses for San Antonio two, maybe a good shot
to fade them because four on the road at home
immediately back to the road against this team Orlando, which
has been playing really good. A couple of advantages. You
talked about the rebounding last five games. I know you're
always high on last five games. Magic number four in
the NBA and second chance points the Spurs without Webbin Yama,
it's starting the show now. They're twenty ninth in a
second chance points allowed and their thirtieth in mid range
field goal percentage allowed. So close to the rim they're
giving it up without Wemby protecting the rim. At this
point in time, I think Orlando's got plenty of players
even without ban Cao who can do that. Like you say,
they're scoring like crazy. Desmond Bane seems to have found
his comfort spot with this team contributing really well now
and they're playing really good there. I think their tempo
SKI was up to number six in the NBA over
the course of the last five I know it's up
to eight here, guys who got five and a half. Yeah,
you got the better value, But it seems to me
Orlando could win this one by ten or more. I'll
add one more thing. The Spurs, although the minutes weren't
necessarily huge last night, they were pressed by Memphis the
entire game. And you get thirty one points and seven
threes out of Harrison Barnes. That happens like once every
full moon anymore. So I don't know that you're going
to get that from him. They've got other guys that
are capable. But I just see Orlando winning this game
by a pretty big number tonight, just because of the situation.
Speaker 1: I beat on that banner. But I'm in agreement here.
I like, the magic have to be bet, even though
related to the party or I'm late to the party,
I still see a seven and a half out there.
Magic and magic team told over. Maybe it's one that
I split in half, but the magic have to be
bet one way or another. I believe in this game.
And the injuries, you know what the injuries, if anything,
if the Spurs just I say, somebody, you would want
to get ahead of this. So I think magic and
this I want to ask you, I mean, just talking
it out a little more. I feel like it can
go either way. Yes, the Magic have been scoring or
playing a tempo. But if this game does get out
of hand, I mean you could fall short of that
team total over for the Magic, you know, if they're
already just smoking the Spurs. So your opinion, do you
think this will be more of a Spurs team total
under or a Magic team total overgame?
Speaker 2: If you had to choose, let me just I'm pulling
up the numbers now so I can give you a
pretty these team total numbers one twenty two and one
thirteen and a half. I'd you could get one fourteen
and a half. I'd almost say Spurs team total under
one fourteen and a half. Not that Orlando can't get
to one twenty three because they've shown they can't. I
just when it gets to that range, it's harder for me.
So maybe Spurs team total under. I don't really have
a good answer for you there, Ski, because I would
almost like them both. But I think i'd like Spurs
team total under a little bit better.
Speaker 1: All right, next game, Blazers and Calves. Not a whole
lot of movement on the side. But the total did
go off from two thirty six. Actually it went up
to two forty one, but it's come back down a
little bit I'm seeing eight and a half actually right now.
Injury report Alonzo probable, No, Jared Allen, Sam Merrill, Larry
NaNs Junior or Max s Truth for the Blazer side,
I mean a lot of big injury report here too.
Denny Avia questionable, Clinging questionable, Murray questionable, No Scoop, Drew,
Tybo Wesley or Williams. There's too much missing in this
game for me, you know, I think this is one
I just don't even want to bother with. Did you
have any opinion on Blazers and Calves.
Speaker 2: There's way too much missing for Portland. I mean, Denny
Ada is and great for this team as far as
scoring is concerned, and we already talked about Drew the
other night. Without him, they were still able to have
a big fourth quarter. But that stuff catches up to
you too after after a little bit of time. The
only thing I'll say here, Ski is I don't know
what to remember. The other day we talked about Cleveland, Indiana.
Mitchell and Garland don't even talk to the press. The
guys that do talk to the press tell you there's
a little bit of turmoil going on here as far
as early starts are concern, and then they came out
sixty six to fifty four first half against Indiana, came
out pretty fast out of the shoot. I don't know
if that's something that I'm supposed to be proactive with
and start getting on Cleveland. Maybe the message has been
received or if that was just a one off. Makes
it a little bit difficult for me, But I feel
like in some way, shape or form, I should be
playing Cleveland points in this game. First half number, just
for those watching here, team total real quick is C
sixty five and a half. That's a large number out
of I probably won't get involved, but the Cleveland situation
intrigues me a little bit whether or not we can
get in early before the odds maker. I don't know
the odds maker even has to catch up because these
numbers are big already. But Cleveland played really well the
other night.
Speaker 1: Well, I'll ask you this this. Do you think you
say the message has been received? I could maybe I
could probably agree with that. The Calves are only sitting
at thirteen and nine right now. You know, they definitely
could use some wins. And if the focus is you know,
starting the game faster or better. I mean, if there's
no Denny, there's no Drew, I mean, no clinging. Possibly
maybe why not just take the Calves first quarter and
not even think about this full game point spread. That's
kind of my thought process there.
Speaker 2: That's that's a good look for Caves first now three
and a half. In fact is as you write it down,
I'll write it down too, because I didn't consider it.
But they are. They were open two and a half,
bet up to three and a half. And yeah, you
get their starting lineup against they banged up Portland starting lineup,
that could be a really good, good spot minus three
and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah. The problem is usually teams overlook the opposing team,
but you know when the starters get rolled out. But
I just don't think Cleveland is in a spot to
do that with how they've been playing lately. You agree,
I do.
Speaker 2: I do, absolutely like. And you know what, It's funny
because the other day Ski I said to you in
the NBA standings don't matter until after the All Star break.
But maybe at this point, when you're the Calves and
you have the expectations that they have, thirteen and nine
means let's start getting some wins here.
Speaker 1: All right. We're in an agreement on that. Definitely looking
at the Calves early. Just want to check one more
thing here, Okay, we can keep going Caves first quarter
minus three and a half. Definitely appealing their Clippers and Hawks.
I mean it's a one way street from me. I
don't want the Clippers. I'm gonna tell you that right now.
They're gonna have to show me something to make me
want to bet them. So just based off that this
Hawks are nothing. How do you feel about it?
Speaker 2: If you know, I was surprised more money didn't come
in on the Hawks ski so I played at three
and a half. I mean, Chris Paul gets released because
he's too critical of his teammates. It's like he's trying
to hold people accountable, and nobody wants to be held
accountable on the five and sixteen team. I don't know
what we can add to them as far as a
descriptive other than walkers with tennis balls. Now we could
just I don't know what we add to it, but
they don't want to listen to any criticism from within.
I know Chris Paul can be rough, but still they're
not supposed to be five and sixteen, and nobody wants
to listen. So for me it was Atlanta. I I
thought for sure that the market would push this game up,
maybe by two points, but they haven't, so I stepped in.
I'm on Atlanta minus three and a half. I don't
want any part of that LA situation right now.
Speaker 1: All right, we're in agreement on that. I don't think
we have to talk too much more. I think we
can move over to Hornets and Nicks. And we did
see some movement here. This one went from oh no, no, no,
I'm sorry. I went from nine and a half. It's
still at nine and a half. I feel like I
saw it higher. Maybe it came back down. Total did
come down from two thirty seven as low as two
thirty five and a half for New York og out
Mitch Robinson out sham it out for the Hornets. LaMelo
is probable there will be no content Green ray Man,
Brandon Miller or Grant Williams. Second of it back to
back for these Knicks, starting four to fourth and six.
It is the fourth and sixth for the Hornets, but
they have rest advantage looking for a little bit of
double digit in season revenge as well the Knicks. I
feel like I have been a really strong home team.
I feel like the Knicks have also maybe beating up on
the bad teams. I have the double check, but that's
just my thought about the Knicks. So I mean they
are at home. I don't like the situation on the
back to back. It's hard for me to trust them here.
I guess just because of that. If I was stressing
one person in his game, you know it's my guy, Con,
I'll probably be betting his points or something like that.
How do you feel about Hornets and Knicks. I don't
think I can lay with the Knicks.
Speaker 2: I like a little bit of a bounce back here
out of the Charlotte offense. Ski you're catching the Knicks
on back to back. They played hard minutes last night
against Boston. Mckel bridges kept trying to rally them. The
end of that game was tight. Everybody goes at least
thirty three and a half minutes in the starting lineup,
and now you come back and play a fast paced
team in Charlotte, and Charlotte didn't play well offensively against
Brooklyn the other night, so there's no real travel. He's
sitting in Brooklyn for a day and rest get to
MSG play this game, knowing that the Knicks might be
a little bit tired. To Charlotte team total was one
thirteen and a half. I could honestly see Charlotte getting
to one fourteen in this game tonight with even if
they have a you know, I tried to weigh in
a lot of different ways. Maybe they have a really
big first half, and if so, it should be enough
to get them to one fourteen. Maybe they're good all
the way through, Maybe they start off slow and get
a big second half. But one thirteen and a half
to me, seems like a real betable number here. Off
of the offensive performance they had the other night against
Brooklyn only one O three and bad shooting the other night.
I don't see that happening here for the Hornets.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you like them to score and uh man, I'm
writing them down here on my Charlotte to cover it
is we have here best known rust He is nine
and a half. Just I can't see the Knicks playing
that well and his back to back I mean, I
don't know this. This is more of a gut feeling
kind of game because when I look at numbers, Hornets
haven't been playing you know that great lately, haven't been
playing well at all. Well, yeah, I don't look more
into it, but I'm gonna try to find reasons to
back the hornet Sprobs thinks to hornets can score points.
I'm in agreement with that. Here's what I was saying earlier.
D Hugh Gaming says, next, smoke everyone at the crib.
Besides that magic game, they are ten to one ats.
It's gonna built to ask. I mean, I don't think
they played too many home games on the back to back,
but we shall see. We shall see. Nets and Bulls
went from minus eleven for the Bulls down at eight
and not a big movement, but two thirty two up
to two thirty three and a half on that total
High smith Man and Cam Thomas out for the Bulls.
I mean, this is a this the whole team on
the injury report. Kobe White out, heard her out, Noah out,
Coral doubtful, Terry Smith, Frey Jones, Zach Collins all questionable,
Patrick Williams, Julian Phillips, and Oldbridge questionable. I mean, there's
too many question marks. One thing I'll say is I
do think Boots can have a good game. Every center
pretty much has a good game. Versus Nets. I think
that Josh Giddy might be playable without Kobe White out there.
Whether there's pr or just rebounds and assists, those will
be you know, if I'm betting anything for Chicago, those
will be my go tos. Other than that, not a
whole lot I want to do here. You know, what,
do you think?
Speaker 2: I was surprised Chicago played so well the other night
against Orlando one. I just don't like him in a
favorites roll Ski laying a MPJ came back the other
night scored thirty five. I think he had a pretty
solid night. Brooklyn's not you know, you have to hold
your nose when you bet Brooklyn.
Speaker 1: I get it.
Speaker 2: But the way to look at them for a long
time this season has been toward the under. And maybe
this total is a little bit too high. Again, I'm
reaching for reaching for straws here because I didn't play
and I don't have a really good feel. But maybe
the total is a little bit too high considering it's Brooklyn,
And again I just don't trust Chicago as a favorite here.
It's come straight down, obviously from eleven to eight seven
and a half because of the injury report that you
read if Chicago's treating this as a let's rest everybody game,
I don't know. We've been around this NBA too long though,
because we've seen this one before. When you rest everybody
and then you go out and whack somebody by twenty
with your reserves, difficult to call a lot of back.
I can fourth in my head on that game, So
I'll leave it alone.
Speaker 1: All right. Let's keep going down the list. Kings and
Rockets big point spread here, it went from thirteen and
a half to fifteen and a half, came down from
two thirty six lot it was two twenty nine and
a half for Houston. Steven Adams questionable, Tarry Easton during,
Phinney Smith out, Malik munk Is probable, Stroder questionable, SA
Bonus out. Honestly, this is this is when I think
I skipped over today. I just saw that humunk is
point spread. Didn't really want to lay it. Third game,
four nights for the Rockets. King's coming off of a
couple of days rest, you know, two days rest. I'm
not really looking at lay fifteen and a half first
a team like that in association. So just just off
of that, I guess it makes me lean towards Kings,
but I don't really like a lot from what I've
seen from them, so it's probably a past for me. Ravino,
do you have anything on Kings and Rockets?
Speaker 2: I agree, I agree because I don't lay these types
of points hardly. Ever, so it's hard for me to
get to Houston, even though I know they're the way
better team playing and simple, they're the way better team.
Their front line is better. Steven Adams like a something.
Create was nine of ten from the free throw line
the other night, and like, wow, Steven Adams. They're just
playing really well right now. Ski, that's a together group.
Sacramento's kind of a scattered group. It's hard to trust them,
but point spreads, the great equalizer. Fifteen and a half
could get the job done here. Their team total is
one oh seven and a half, very very low by
NBA standards. In fact, you can find one o six
and a half. I've been trapped with Sacramento before where
they didn't get to that number. But tonight, considering the
travel and whatnot, or the schedule for Houston, maybe they
get there. Not a game I'm really interested in.
Speaker 1: Right this next game Pistons and Bucks. We did see
some movement. It went from minus three to four and
a half. Total came down from two thirty three to
two thirty. Looking at the injury report for this game
for Milwaukee, Jannis is probable, Gary Harris, KPJ, and Bobby
Porters are all questionable. Tyren Prince looks like he's out.
For the Pistons, Robinson is questionable. Clintman and Sasser are
both out. This is the fourth game and sixth nights
for the Pistons. They do have some rest before this game, though,
and it is also fourth game and six for the Bucks.
They're looking for a little bit of double digit nd
season revenge. But I don't know how much I like
what I mean KPJ back on the injury report again,
Jannis doesn't want to be there letting the Wizards come
back and win. I mean, I don't think I can
support anything for the Bucks right now. I think it's
Pistons are nothing in this game. Any thoughts from you here,
you know.
Speaker 2: To lose that game in the final two and a
half minutes the other night to Washington is just it's
unacceptable if you're in Milwaukee, Doc Rivers, I just was
reaching for it. I saw this quote this morning, want
to read it again, Doc Rivers, he's just full of quotes.
This guy, he's not full of wins, but he's full
of quotes. I didn't think we played right. They had
eighteen more shots than us. We played so well. We
played so well the other night, and a said went
over Brooklyn, I felt frustrated the entire night. We played
like we thought we were gonna win the game. You're
supposed to win the game. You're like a double digit
favorite against the Wizards. How do you let it get away?
I could see where Giannis would want the heck out
of that place, you know. And I'm somebody holding a
Milwaukee ticket. I think over forty two and a half
regular season wins and they're off to a nine and
thirteen start, So I mean, the quicker they unload Doc
Rivers and his quotes happier, I would be with that bet.
But you can't trust them, man. Detroit had lost to
this team ski thirteen times in a row, and then
they broke that streak earlier this year, so I don't
think they're satisfied with just beating them once. They've been
beaten by Milwaukee for a long time. They probably want
to whack them around again. So I didn't bet it,
but there's no way I'd be on Milwaukee right now.
Speaker 1: We're an agreement on that. We'll move over to the
last game on the slate. That's Heat and mass went
from two and a half to five for Miami, tot
them moved a little bit towards the over sitting at
two forty one and a half. Go over to the
injury report. Larson Powell both questionable, good Old Terry Rozier
will not see the court. Dallas Mavericks. Gafford and PJ
are questionable. Kyrie and Lively are out for this Mavericks team.
Fourth and six for them. Looking for some revenge here
coming off of a coming off of a win though as
an underdog this Heat here, here's my thought here, the
Heat just plays. I mean really, I was looking at
a prop in this game. I was thinking about Cooper
Flag his rebounds, just because there's so many possessions in
this Heat game. There's gotta be a lot more rebounds,
you know, they allow I think the second most rebound
something like that, just because of how many possessions are
in their games. And Cooper Flag, I feel like he's
been playing a lot of minutes. He's gonna have the opportunities.
Cooper flag six and a half rebounds seems very appealing.
Outside of that, I don't think I want to get
too involved here, you know, anything for you on MAVs
and Heat.
Speaker 2: I wanted to play Miami's team total over it's got
It's almost like an automatic trigger for me. Every morning
I wake up and see them on the card, I
want to look up their team total. But Norman poulse
to situation stops me a little bit here. Ski. I
know they've got other scores, and Dallas plays at pace two,
so the game is gonna be back and forth. I
think Dallas went to two point fifty two the other
night with Denver one one, and Dallas is getting a
couple of the bigs back. PJ. Washington, I think is
gonna play at shoot around today. Also Daniel Gafford gonna play.
But in a Miami game, I don't treat that as
rim protection coming back because the game is played with
such a spread floor all the time, up and down.
It's not really half court sets where rim protection is
more helpful. So I want to get to the over somehow.
Someway if I knew Norman Powell was playing, I would
have already bet maybe even full game total, because Miami
doesn't care if they give up buckets. They just want
to get more than you do at this point in time.
So we'll see. I'll look at the injury report as
the day goes on. If I get a you know,
inkling that Norman Pal's gonna play, I'll probably land on
the totally the Miami team total or full game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you mentioned in PJ is a good point because
he was slotted in at that power forward right and uh,
probably be a reason Cooper Plagg I mean the past
two games there was no PJ and he had eight rebounds.
Eight rebounds, so that is something to look at. I mean,
did you get that seven? He did get that seven,
just like Mike mentioned before that the past four games,
but I don't know. I still think he can get it.
We'll see. I'm gonna think about that one a little
bit more. That is the NBA car for today, so
you know, I'm just gonna move it over the best
bets today. I'll ask you if there's anything you'd like
to promote, and uh, if you have a best bet
for the show, we love to hear it. If you
don't saw good.
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's see. I'm trying to think promotion wise, I
would just say, guys, if you're gonna be interested in
college football bowl games, there is bowl packages up and available.
Wager Talk has reduced the price on those. I think
the regular stuff is still intact. Weekend Warrior, et cetera,
et cetera. I'm going to get straight to best bets
here with the Atlanta Hawks minus three and a half,
I just I really am surprised that the market didn't
get here more aggressive towards the Atlanta Hawks side. The
Clippers are a disaster, not only on the court. Atlanta
can push pace with them. We saw it the other night.
Miami just came out and ran them off the floor
in one quarter. Case closed, You're done. And if the
Clippers are not united here, which it doesn't seem like
they are. And again I forget the record, Ski, but
it's something like three and eleven against the spread since
Tyler's face was seen at a poker game. So they're
just not playing well enough for me to want them,
and I really do want to fade them here. So
at Lanta minus three and a half, best bet tonight.
Speaker 1: Good stuff for myself. I haven't placed the bet yet,
and I don't like to give you guys best that
I don't have in my pocket. I feel like I
need a little bit more time to shore some things up,
so a lot of ways I was looking. I am
sure I have a few best today, but just not
ready to pull the trigger yet. So don't tell you
guys something just to tell you so I will pass
for best best today, Bino. I always appreciate you taking
the time to break the games down with me. Everybody
out there, we appreciate you as well. And tomorrow we'll
have a little bit of football, talk about some basketball
as well. So best of luck on all your action
tonight and we will catch you guys tomorrow