Speaker 1: End of the Great Keynesian Experiment is just simply a
mathematical problem.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: Well, we added a trillion dollars in new debt in
one hundred and six days, went from thirty six trillion
to thirty seven train in one hundred and six days.
You know, a lot of that's just compounding interest in math.
The election of Trumph, some of the revolutionary ideas he has,
like this Doze Committee, you know, to make some recommendations
for cutting waste, and you know all these different things
that's encouraging. I'm all for it. I mean, I won't
even get me wrong, and I don't want to seem cynical.
Speaker 3: You were listening to Carrie Let's his Financial Survival Network
where you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere
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Speaker 4: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial
Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lets. Good friend Craighempkey
is with us now TF Metalsreport dot com. Make sure
you go sign up there now get his free newsletter.
Got a question for Craig myself, Klatcarrie LUTs dot com
is the place to send it to great So are
we going through an American revival or all sins going
to be forgiven?
Speaker 2: Now that the election is over?
Speaker 4: And I don't know, Maybe I wouldn't necessarily say the
grown ups are back in charge, but maybe the more
developed adolescents or running things than the pre pewbescent, you know,
kids that I don't know what I'm saying here, Good off.
Speaker 1: Watch Hi, boy, I tell you things were really not
that they're not crazy, but boy, you just think of that.
A lot of things changed the last four years for
our concerns about the precious metals. You know, I've been
I remember when I got my start at zero Hedge
writing in the comments section. People had like a tagline,
you know, where you could write so that every one
of your comments and with a tagline. And I don't
know why, but I added a tagline. It was like
two thousand and nine and I said, the end of
the great Keynesian experiment is upon is prepare accordingly? And
now you know it's like the name Terry Ferguson, I
just kind of got stuck with it, and I got
stuck with that tagline fifteen years ago. The end of
the Great Keynesian Experiment is just simply a mathematical problem. Right, Well,
we added a trillion dollars in new debt in one
hundred and six days, went from thirty six trillion to
thirty seven train in one hundred and six days. You know,
a lot of that's just compounding interest in math. The
election of Trump, some of the revolutionary ideas he has,
like this Doze Committee, you know, to make some recommendations
for cutting way and you know, all these different things
that's encouraging. I'm all for it. I mean, I won't
even get me wrong, and I don't want to seem cynical,
but old men like myself and probably you two carry
we can't help. But I always say there's a pretty
fine line between cynicism and realism. Right So am I
cynical to be doubtful? Or am I just being realistic
that this train is too far down the tracks to
reverse it? You know, if you the government were to
actually try to cut spending from you know, the one
point eight trillion deficit to a point eight trillion deficit.
That reduction in liquidity would be significant. What would that
do to markets? How much of the GDP growth that
is trumpeted at three percent when you do the math
nominally and adjusted to dollars, it equates almost exactly to
that one point eight trillion dollars in government spending? How
many of the new jobs are government employees? So I
don't know if one if it's feasible that you know,
the train can be slowed to any great extent, And
I'm worried that if they try. What's that going to
do to markets? What that does that do to the economy?
Is to do the tax revenue could net net the
reduction of deficit that falls through the spending reduction be
offset by a reduction of tax revenues that would come
in by the slowing of the economy. So anyway, societally, culturally,
all that kind of stuff. Man, if we can get
the boys off the girls, uh, you know, sports teams, great,
But I don't know if economically how much econo how much?
Speaker 4: Hey, even if we can't get them off the sports teams,
if we could just keep them the hell out of
the bathroom, right.
Speaker 1: Right, I mean this is I mean, this is look
I'm all for. You know, you know, a level playing
field that you now be mixing my metaphors and all
that stuff. You know, And but man, I tell you,
as a father of two daughters, you know all of
the efforts that were made over the last fifty years
to try to create opportunities for women to excel in sports.
You know, Title nine, you know all this kind of stuff.
I mean, it is great. And then anyway, more getting
on I'm getting off on a tangent here. There are
things that can be impacted rather directly by you know,
a new White House, a new administration. I don't know.
I guess it's just I'm optimate. It remains we've seen
what kind of economic and monetary and fiscal policy impact
can be had. I think what happened in the immediate
aftermath to the election was almost kind of a mania
that all this stuff was ascertain to happen and was
a certain happened quickly. We'll just see how it plays
out next year.
Speaker 4: You know, it can make a difference. But you know,
when we go back to the milkshake effect, Duncan's theory
and all of this growth and everything that happens is
because of credit. So you cut back on the amount
of credit that the government's taking in and the amount
of money that they're printing, and you know, it's got
to lead to a crash. There's no other way get
rid of a million government employees, even though I think
government employees and oxymoron government worker.
Speaker 2: You know, I just don't see any way out of it.
Speaker 4: And yeah, I think it's easily two trillion dollars a
year worth of waste baked into the system. Right, but
you know, really really like I think you're right. I mean,
we're too far down the rabbit hole here, right, Yeah, Well.
Speaker 1: And that's just it tend of math actually be And
like you said, liquiddy banks that are holding all these
alleged assets on their balance sheet that are underwater because
of the movement interest rates, right the Federal Reserve and
their balance sheet and the unrealized losses that they have.
And so this notion that again Trump is going to
it was a number of factors that all kind of
came together that dull gold down ten percent, from which
it's now recovering as we expected. But there are a
number of factors you know, that Trump was going to
promote economic growth, which was going to lead to inflation,
which meant you should sell your bonds and rates are
going up, and if rates are going up, that meant
the dollar was going to go up. And then this
you know, I'm all for bitcoin, but you know Trump
was going to promote bitcoin, so get out of gold
and get into bitcoin, and all of these factors combined
for that pretty sharp sell off in gold. But now
I think that the mania again to keep you using
that term, this kind of hysteria that oh this is
all going to happen overnight, has kind of worn off
and the metals have found their footing. This is rather
always very strong seasonal period. Doesn't mean we have to
go up every December in January, but on average, December
and January the third and second best months of the
year for the precious metals. So I think we're seeing
now again with this latest news out of China as well,
a pretty solid rebound for the precious metals. It's going
to get a little Santa Claus rally and extend in
the January.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so the honeymoon eventually sounds like it's going to end.
Where are we going to be at?
Speaker 2: Then?
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, you wonder. You know, this is not dissimilar
to what happened in twenty sixteen. Uh you remember election night
twenty sixteen, All of a sudden, gold just was up
like a hundred bucks or whatever, eighty bucks when you
went to bed and you woke up the next morning,
it was down eighty bucks, yep. And then it sold off.
And at the end of the year, as the dollar
rally is, you know, Trump was going to be protectionists
and tariffs and all this and this perception that strong dollar. Well,
in fact, he was a week dollar president. You know,
he actually wants a weaker dollar to promote US products
and trade. And once that kind of solid rationale took
hold in twenty seventeen, the dollar fell and the precious
metals rallied for about the next eight or nine months.
So we'll see if something similar doesn't play out next year.
Speaker 4: All right, So gold today we're up pretty smartly. Silver
is up over a buck. What of silver here? What's
going on here?
Speaker 1: Well, this is this is probably the most interesting story
to me. At this point on the chart, silver has
kind of a classic double bottom where you and you
see this as a classic double top till you come
down to a spike low, you get a bounce, and
then you get kind of a rounded low at the
same level. A lot of classic double tops that way,
you get this blow off top, you get a pullback,
and then you go up and you round over trying
to make a new high, and then that's it. You
can see that on the chart. You can also see
that in this series of his long term uptrend silver's
been in since March. Really at the conclusion of the
most recent pullback in July, silver came within a whisker
of its two hunderday moving average kind of bounced off
of it for about four days. Silver came down within
ten cents of its twourday moving average back the night
before Thanksgiving that Wednesday night two weeks ago. Yeah, I
got to thirty oh nine something like that. Now it's
pushing thirty three today. So a lot of things on
the chart that looks good. What I want to watch
for Carrie, and I think this will be the most
significant thing as we head into this month, and then
as twenty twenty five begins, people will recall, you know,
we're all frustrated, you know, as silver owners, because you know,
price got to fifty dollars in nineteen seventy nine. You
know whatever round up got to fifty dollars round up
in twenty eleven, and those are great years into a year.
But both of those years finished at about thirty one
in a quarter. So if you pull up an annual chart,
you know, not a daily charter, a weekly charter, a
chart just a you know, a candlestick chart of every
year of silver going back to last fifty years. You
see these big green candles, but both of them finish
at thirty one twenty on the spot market. We're right
now about thirty. We get an annual chart breakout at
the end of this year. That could be something that
really drives a solid institutional high net worth you know,
family office, whatever bid for silver next year. Do you
remember do you remember Carrie? Who is that guy from
gugenhant Heim Scott so wait, what was his name? Scott Minard?
I remember this from a couple of years ago. Dude
was a dabos and he's sitting there and he's on
a CNBC or Bloomberg panel or somebody goes, I think
the you know a silver about eighteen bucks is I
think silver is the investment of the year, and they
were all like, why you talking about it? Because nobody
owns it? Are you and I own it? People are
watching this own it. Maybe nobody owns it in no
institution or hedge fund, nobody owns it in size. What
gets their attention a breakout on an annual chart where
you see, wow, oh, what's going on here? So for
everybody watching this, we got three weeks to go to
the end of the year, watch that thirty one five
or so in silver. If we can extend with the
Santa Claus rally, that might be a little foreshadowing of
what might be to come next year.
Speaker 4: Well we hit thirty five, right, yeah, and bounce back
what you expect, right yeah, And gold was kind of
like hanging out and kind of retracing a bit. Now
it's kind of freeing up. I guess until silver leads gold,
we just don't know, huh.
Speaker 1: Well, it kind of is a little bit.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 1: The mining shares have been interesting as well lately for
the obvious reason. I mean, they got this washed back
in November. The big primary drivers of the mining sector really,
I mean, even Stanley Druckammeller Terry you think you know
it is obviously about a million times smarter than I am.
But when he wants to own precious metals, he buys
a GDX and he buys Numont, which is like the
two stupidest things you could possibly buy. This brilliant guy,
but he just you know, reflects a lot. I don't
know what anything about goals lit by Newmont. So in
Newmont and Barrack are always the worst performing mining companies
because they I mean, they have the same share price
had twenty years ago, because they can't control their costs.
So when they release earnings, as Newmont did in late October,
just crushed the sector, just killed it. And a week
later because Barrack with the same problem to wipe this out.
So anyway, the mining sector pulls back. But now mining
you know, smarter mining investors are going await a second.
The price of gold is still twenty six fifty twenty
seven hundred. I bet the fourth quarter is going to
look pretty good too, just like the third quarter. The
mining shares are recovering. They're being accumulated a lot of
green candles on the daily chart, which means priced rallying
through the New York Socke Exchange session GDX rallying up
getting back above it's fifty day moving average. Silver's back
above it's fifty day moving average as we speak. It
might be kind of leading gold a little bit here again. Seasonally, Carrie,
this is a good time of year. Yeah, after we
get that through the tax lost selling season, particularly in Canada,
that usually wraps her up around the sixteenth seventeen eighteenth
of December, this should be a good time of year.
We should a year in rally and we could extend
that rally with some positive sentiment into January.
Speaker 4: All right, well from your mouth, I guess, but we
do know seasonally this is always you know, middle to
end of Q four to middle to end of Q one,
that's good time. But you know, the stock market has
stayed strong throughout all this. There's like no, it's just
complacency is ruling and until it does right well.
Speaker 1: In liquidity too, there's I mean, we might be getting
into some spots with a shortage of liquidity, like that
reverse repo balance that was at one point two point
five trillion dollars is now down Electro one hundred and
fifty billion. But the important news that whise gold and
silver up here on Monday the night a big change
of monetary and fiscal policy out of China last night,
first public change since twenty eleven, signaling that for the
at least the next year, they're going to be very
loose and accommodated and providing liquidity and trying to keep
liquidity flowing out of China. Well there, you know, it's
just more more global fiat to help drive everything.
Speaker 4: What he's here too, right, US's securary, it's already baked
in the cake.
Speaker 1: And right, well exactly, I mean, the Fed is talking.
You know, they're going to cut rates again here next
month or next week. I should say, we'll see how
much they actually then expect to cut next year. But
they're being easy and carry you know. In the end,
that's where this all has to lead. I mean, even
with I mean Trump, Trump's some real estate guys exists
on debt. He knows lower interest rates are better than
higher interest rates. Right, so you can still see this
path of global loosening, you know, to try to just
keep the gears of liquidity greased, and that it's a
kind of a stretch or maybe I don't know to
say that. You know, rising tide lifts all boats here. Well,
until we get into some real sharp liquidity squeeze and
reduction of global liquidity. It's hard not to see where
things like the stock market don't keep going up.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I mean it really then we have had
any We made it through September and October, it out
any wild dest right, any crashes. And you'd think this year,
of all years, with the uncertainty of the presidential election,
all this stuff going on, if it was ever going
to crash, it would be this year.
Speaker 2: And yet it didn't.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, right, yeah, And you know, and there's some
history the first year of a presidential cycle typically is
a little challenging, but not you know, not that's not
universally true, but it can be. And again, you almost
need a signaling event that would kind of cause some
of these dominoes to start tumbling into each other. You know,
some kind of real crash in the US bond market
that gets rates, you know, the ten year note backup
over five percent or something and moving higher again, what's
going to cause that? In fact, even you know, the
last two weeks you'll on the ten year note, it's
down twenty five basis points. Bond market's rallying. So again, hey,
look I predicted about ten of the last one stock
market crashes. Things just keep going up, you know, and
maybe carrying the end, it just auders that toward that
old Austrian economics idea of the crackup boom that toward
the end, all these central banks are just creating so
much cash trying to service their debt and it just
leaks out into everything. And maybe that's all part of
what continues.
Speaker 4: Perhaps, and I mean here, even over the weekend, we
have the collapse of the Syrian regime, right, the end
of the fifty year peace treaty between Syria and Israel. Right,
We've got and we don't even know who the heck
is going to go in there and run the show.
And maybe that's why gold's going up. I hate to
like try to attach news events to gold other than
when something really bad happens and it shoots up one
hundred dollars announce then you know, but the normal flood,
day to day fluctuations. It's like trying to say why
the stock market went up, Right, Well, I went down today?
Speaker 1: You know, it's pointless, right, but here and it is
you know, today's rally a lot with China. You know,
we got smashed for fifty dollars in gold back in
June when China announced they were stopping for a little while.
So then back on Saturday morning, they announced that they
were going to six new metric tons that they're acquiring.
So part of it's that a lot of today's rally
is this this policy stance, formal policy stance. It's been
announced by the PBOC. All commodities hire coppers up a
couple percent. I mean, my entire commodity board on my
screen is green. Yeah, So all those are are pretty
positive fundamental factors that are that are pushing us up today. Well,
you know, again, the geopolitical stuff is going to continue
to be first and foremost on everybody's mind, as you know,
until Trump gets elected probably, but even after that, and
we're still going to have troubles everywhere, you know, Middle
East and Eastern Europe and the rest. Gold continues to
be viewed as a safe haven no matter what the
bitcoin maximust want to spin it. I had no problem
own them both. I've owned both. I bought bitcoin six
hundred bucks about eight years ago. I wish i'd bought more.
I wish had bought it at a six dollars, But
nonetheless I think they both. Why it has to always
be presented is one or the other I don't understand.
But nonetheless, whatever, I think there's right future ahead for both,
and twenty twenty five should continue the trends we've seen
this year.
Speaker 4: And yeah, we were amiss if we didn't mention the
fact that bitcoin broke one hundred k, right, I don't
know what it's selling it at this particular moment.
Speaker 1: Ninety eight, ninety seven something like that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's pretty close to one hundred k, you know,
I think it continues to go up. I think one
fifty one thirty five to one fifty is kind of
what I'm expecting, you know, once it breaks out of
whatever it's in now.
Speaker 2: But it's obvious that it's got a lot more to
go here, you know.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, target, when we started this talking about math,
you can talk about math there too. What a nineteen
million big coin or whatever it is have been mined,
but the most they're ever going to mine is twenty
one million.
Speaker 4: What.
Speaker 1: I'm not a big bitcoin pert. I don't know what
the exact numbers are. We Once I figured that out
in twenty sixteen, I went wait, a second, this is
just supply and demand. You know, supply is fixed if
and then dwindling the future supply while demand is increasing
over time. How does this not work? Yeah, and so
I was fortunate I figured that out when I did.
But again I don't I did. That's the thing. I
don't see them as opposite ideas, and they're both just alternative.
Gets your money out of fiat, yeah, as that continues
to be devalued versus everything and move it into something else,
And that's they both provide that that role.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Yeah, And look, I think if the government, really the
governments of the world really wanted to shut it down,
or the US government wanted to shut it down, it
would have been gone already. We can speculate as to why.
But they could block every bitcoin node and you would
never be able to find out again what price it
would be selling for. And that would be the end
because once there's no because bitcoin is all about price discovery, right,
you instantly can find out what it's worth any moment
of the day. Whether that price it's true or not,
we could debate that, but at least you can find
out the theoretical price of it, and where you not
be able to do that, that would kill it for good.
But now Trump is pro crypto. We didn't even talk
about in He appointed a czar in charge of AI
and crypto.
Speaker 2: You know, that's look pretty wild. Who would think?
Speaker 1: Yeah, And it's forward looking, you know, And that's where
we need to be in twenty twenty four, that's for sure.
Speaker 4: And yet he's adamant about not allowing a cb DC, right.
Speaker 1: Let's hope. So those are the kind of things that
keep me up at night. You know that there has
been this war on physical cash for about as long
as I've had my website, and that is something Remember,
that's a war we have to win.
Speaker 4: Remember I wrote an article many years ago called Operation
Dirty Money, where they weren't even they weren't even replacing
the Warren bills in circulation during Obama's time. And my
friend who had an ATM business in hotels in Florida
here actually sold the business because he was getting jam
ups all the time and he'd be away and his
wife would have to go to the ATM with thirty
forty k in cash. She didn't want to do it.
And you know they couldn't. They could not get clean
bills now that problem for whatever reason, remedied it remedied itself.
Speaker 2: I have no idea why it happened.
Speaker 4: I have no idea why it was solved, other than
the fact that they don't want you carrying cash.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and physical metal fits in that category.
Speaker 4: Two.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I mean, we've talked about this
multiple times over the years. I reck, you only don
understand if your net worth and financial well being can
be reduced to nothing but a string of zeros and ones,
it can be canceled and taken from you in a keystroke.
So you know, when they sit there and say, oh,
you don't need cash, and really the only people that
use cash or bitcoin is elicit you know, things like
bookies and drug dealers and money laundering and stuff like that.
That's their excuse for trying to take you know, actual
alternatives out of your hands. Don't let them. And this
is that's the most long term, that's the most important
war we got to fight.
Speaker 4: It's so true enough, like it just I went to
Europe like a couple of weeks ago to visit my son,
and you know, I carried X amount of cash. I
don't like to say how much cash I carried, but
more than I usually would. And Craig, it's the first
time I ever went overseas and never changed money, because
it's like you just use your card. You don't even
use your card, you use your use your iPhone and
you just scan it and you know it didn't matter
where it was. Now you go to Thailand, they're twenty
thirty years behind.
Speaker 2: You have to use cash.
Speaker 4: Germany big on cash certain societies, but I was in
Sweden and Denmark. No cash to be seen in those
countries and that idea. So they've basically gotten for convenience.
They've gotten everybody to give it up.
Speaker 2: Right. Yep.
Speaker 1: Again, there's a reason why I was written in the
US Constitution the gold and silver our money, because that
is they still part of your personal freedom. Now is
this something that again I keep referring to it as
a battle and a fight, but it is. And the
more people that understand that, the better chance we have
of winning.
Speaker 4: Totally agree with you, man, I think we'll leave it
at that. Make sure you go over to tfnetalsreport dot com.
For a little more than the price of a latte,
you can subscribe. Even if you don't subscribe, you'll get
the regular newsletters. But the forum is really worth it
because Creig, you have some of the brightest subscribers of
any site I've ever seen.
Speaker 1: Thank you. Yeah, you know, I was just just looking
through the weekend thread of comments on my Friday podcast,
the stuff that there's a couple of people on there say,
how do you people talking about about me, talking about
the other members of the site. How do you be
more time to find all this information?
Speaker 4: Uh?
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's that's really important, and especially you know at
a time like this, you need as much information as
you can get. Man. Yes, if this election and everything
in the run up to it taughtch anything, you need
to be out there thinking for yourself. You just can't
be swallowing what the mainstream media or the mainstream financial
media try to tell you. You got to be thinking
for yourself. You're gonna left hold in the bag.
Speaker 4: I could not agree with you. Mar Hey, you've got
a question for Craig myself. Email kl at carrie Lets
dot com. Link to craig site is in the show
noteses interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. And make
sure you sign up for your free newsletter. We've got
over sixty thousand people subscribe now can believe it this point,
going from literally zero but over fourteen years. People get
the word out and Craig, we'll talk to you again soon, Happy, healthy,
merry Christmas.
Speaker 2: Talk to you after the first.
Speaker 1: Right back at you, my friend, all the best.
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network
Speaker 1: Now more than ever,