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Speaker 3: Simply Safe. Welcome to Plot Save America. I'm Jon Favreau,
Speaker 3: I'm Dan Pfeiffer. On today's show, Donald Trump catches a
Speaker 3: ride on a catering truck to escape the Iranians who
Speaker 3: are trying to kill him and or cause him to
Speaker 3: lose the midterms, which ever comes first. We'll also talk
Speaker 3: about how your tax dollars are being used to buy
Speaker 3: brand new gloves for ice agents that can deliver an
Speaker 3: electric shock to anyone they touch. That is true. Also
Speaker 3: a wild story about DHS spying on everyone from labor
Speaker 3: union and climate groups to random citizens just because they can. Then,
Speaker 3: with the last of the major contested primaries behind us
Speaker 3: in Wisconsin and Minnesota, we'll talk about why the polling
Speaker 3: was so far off and why that won't stop us
Speaker 3: from speculating about November. Finally, we'll bid a fond farewell
Speaker 3: to White House pre Secretary Caroline Levitt and compare our
Speaker 3: rankings of who we think is most likely to get
Speaker 3: the job next. Can't wait to hear your.
Speaker 2: List, Dan, it's really outside the box.
Speaker 3: I like that. I like that. One quick note before
Speaker 3: we start, Friends of the Pod Tickets for this year's
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Speaker 3: they're starting to use the Q word to describe Trump's
Speaker 3: disastrous war in Iran. You know what the Q word is, Dan.
Speaker 2: There are all kinds of jokes I was going to make,
Speaker 2: but none of them seem to work. So I'm just
Speaker 2: going to go with the right answer. Is it quagmire?
Speaker 3: It is. That's the headline and one of the most
Speaker 3: read Politico stories of the week. The Iran war is
Speaker 3: a whole new level of quagmire for the US. Both
Speaker 3: Trump and the Iranians are claiming that they're in control
Speaker 3: of the Strait of Horror moves, which can't be true,
Speaker 3: and the strait remains functionally closed. I think only fourteen
Speaker 3: vessels went through yesterday. Gas prices are higher than they
Speaker 3: have ever been at this time of year in the
Speaker 3: United States ever in history. The war also continues to
Speaker 3: deplete our military. The Washington Post reports that we've lost
Speaker 3: about a quarter of our supply of Reaper drones, we're
Speaker 3: using up our limited supplies of both Patriot and Tomahawk missiles,
Speaker 3: and some of our service members have been deployed so
Speaker 3: long that on the USS Abraham Lincoln, which is an
Speaker 3: aircraft carrier that's been in the Middle East since November,
Speaker 3: several of the five thousand sailors and marines on board
Speaker 3: have tried to jump overboard due to the stress and
Speaker 3: horrible conditions. That's according to both the Military Times and
Speaker 3: Stars and Stripes. But nothing better illustrates just how badly
Speaker 3: Trump is getting his ass kicked by the Iranians than
Speaker 3: the story of how our president was forced to hide
Speaker 3: in a catering truck and board a secret plane to
Speaker 3: escape at tent assassination threat involving Iranian proxies in Turkey
Speaker 3: launching surface to air missiles at Air Force One. When
Speaker 3: Trump was asked why it was too dangerous for him
Speaker 3: to fly on Air Force One but not any of
Speaker 3: the reporters and White House officials who weren't told they
Speaker 3: were flying home on a potential target, the President said,
Speaker 3: the dumbest thing possible, I.
Speaker 2: Think actually the plane that I flew on was at
Speaker 2: greater risk.
Speaker 3: I think it was because that would be the plane.
Speaker 3: I think that way that they would be more likely
Speaker 3: to go for it. Fucking idiot. Yeah yeah, yeah, they'd
Speaker 3: be more likely to go for the plane you were on,
Speaker 3: of course, which is why they tried to put you
Speaker 3: on another plane that they didn't know about. You, fucking moron. Yes,
Speaker 3: I don't know why I say that in such a
Speaker 3: shocked way, but like that is it's just like new
Speaker 3: levels of Trump being a dipshit. Yeah, what did you
Speaker 3: make of the whole the catering KRT caper? Uh?
Speaker 2: On one hand, it is very very funny that he
Speaker 2: hid in a cavering cart, that he flew home on
Speaker 2: a secret plane, that he hand picked the people who
Speaker 2: would survive with him, like Pete Haigseth and the woman
Speaker 2: who prints all of his documents.
Speaker 3: But he sent Dance Marbino is former caddy.
Speaker 2: And Daniz Scavito. But he's then he sent Marco Rubio
Speaker 2: to die with the press.
Speaker 3: And Marco Rubio was the only one on that other
Speaker 3: plane who knew what was happening. Scott Bessett was with
Speaker 3: Marco Rubio, none the wiser.
Speaker 2: And it's there's no protocol here for the reasons like
Speaker 2: maybe hag Seth, you could possibly fabricate some reason. But
Speaker 2: the fact that he picked Dan Scavino and Natalie Harp
Speaker 2: the once again the woman who follows him around and
Speaker 2: prints his documents for him, were the ones who got
Speaker 2: seats in the life raft and Marco Rubio didn't. It
Speaker 2: should be a real tell to Marco Rubio. Also, how
Speaker 2: do you eve impress this information? You get luked in
Speaker 2: and you're like, which way to Trump's plane? They're like,
Speaker 2: you didn't make the cut?
Speaker 3: I mean, well, or what were they? What did they
Speaker 3: Where did they think Trump was?
Speaker 2: I mean they just assumed he was in his cabin
Speaker 2: I assume.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, I mean I know that's what the reporters thought.
Speaker 3: But I was wondering about the like Scott Bison just
Speaker 3: sitting there, has no idea with his buddy, Mark Rubio
Speaker 3: has no idea. He's just a sitting duck for me.
Speaker 2: Normally you would see the president walk up well, I
Speaker 2: guess they saw him walk up the steps. And there
Speaker 2: are plenty of times we've been on the plane when
Speaker 2: we used to fly on it where the president would
Speaker 2: just be in their cabin and we would be seated
Speaker 2: where we would sit, which is not in his cabin.
Speaker 2: You would have no idea until the plane landed and
Speaker 2: he did not walk down the front steps.
Speaker 3: Who do you think was making it in the secret
Speaker 3: plane with Barack Obama? Definitely wasn't me.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 3: It might have been you quick, I need a speech.
Speaker 2: Well, how's that? We would have done it by actual
Speaker 2: protocol and not by who he likes most. There is
Speaker 2: like a more serious thing to this, which is.
Speaker 3: That the Iranian proxies in Turkey were potentially going to
Speaker 3: take down Air Force One. Yeah, that's a well I mean.
Speaker 2: That, yes, that that, But there's something like this probably
Speaker 2: sounds really quaint in like the dystopian, fucked up world
Speaker 2: we live in, But there is just something terrible about
Speaker 2: the fact that the president lied to the press, lied
Speaker 2: to the country to hide a threat to himself. No
Speaker 2: one knew where he was. He could have that plane
Speaker 2: could have landed anywhere in the world and no one
Speaker 2: would have ever known. And the only reason we know
Speaker 2: about this now is because the Washington Post did some
Speaker 2: really great reporting, Like, there is a world where obviously
Speaker 2: his security, the president security, whether trumpettying else comes first,
Speaker 2: so you could I understand the ruse. I don't really
Speaker 2: understand why you would take Air Force one off, you
Speaker 2: would just fly the other plane that they don't think he's.
Speaker 3: On, right, It definitely seemed like there was a need
Speaker 3: to protect Trump, even if it was now we should
Speaker 3: say too. Since this story was first reported, there's been
Speaker 3: more reporting that suggests that this intel about a potential
Speaker 3: assassination plot came from Israel, from the Israeli government, and
Speaker 3: then the CIA. Our CIA judged it as low confidence,
Speaker 3: meaning they didn't think it was They didn't think it
Speaker 3: was like a serious, serious threat, but clearly they thought
Speaker 3: it was serious enough to put the president in a
Speaker 3: catering cart and send him on a separate plane.
Speaker 2: It's not probably not surprising that Israel's one who told
Speaker 2: this to Trump, because if you read Regime Change, the
Speaker 2: Maggie Haram of Jonathan Swan book, like one of the
Speaker 2: themes in there, and Maggie talks about this interview with
Speaker 2: Ezra Klein a few weeks ago, is that Trump is
Speaker 2: securely obsessed with the idea that Ron wants to kill him,
Speaker 2: and so you tell Trump Aron wants to kill you
Speaker 2: at the same time, you're trying to keep Trump fully
Speaker 2: focused on the war in Iran.
Speaker 3: It's not a bad idea, right because that, Yeah, Bibi
Speaker 3: did not want him to reach any kind of peace agreement, clearly,
Speaker 3: So yeah, I thought it was. I thought it was.
Speaker 3: So it's wild to me that, like it's one thing
Speaker 3: to protect the president, it's another thing to unnecessarily put
Speaker 3: the rest of the people on Air Force one in danger.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you just hold there for us one on the ground.
Speaker 2: You take the president, let him fly on this other plane.
Speaker 2: No one knows what is right, and then after he lands,
Speaker 2: you say Trump has landed, the Iranians know he's on
Speaker 2: the plane. Then you fly the other plane.
Speaker 3: Home, right, and we're not in the CIA. We're not
Speaker 3: in secret service to the CIA. You know, we could
Speaker 3: figure that out.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's I mean, it's it's crazy. It's also crazy
Speaker 2: they didn'tell anyone afterwards. Like that's also no, that's the well, yes,
Speaker 2: thank you. That is the biggest problem. Like you could
Speaker 2: do this whole thing and then once everyone lands be like, oh,
Speaker 2: by the way, this happened and we couldn't tell you
Speaker 2: at the time or whatever whatever, But like that is
Speaker 2: it's wild that it had to be broken by the
Speaker 2: Washington Post and that the administration subpoened New York Times
Speaker 2: reporters for the leak about them not taking the new
Speaker 2: Katari Force one home because it didn't have like the
Speaker 2: right defensive maneuver capabilities that they might need if if
Speaker 2: proxi's on the ground were eating surfaced air missiles at
Speaker 2: Air Force one Like this is entirely a hypothetical. You
Speaker 2: just want to point this out there. But in a
Speaker 2: world in which oh is right, In a world in
Speaker 2: which the president can get on a secret plane without
Speaker 2: the press and have no one know where he is,
Speaker 2: that plane can land anywhere. It could land on Epstein
Speaker 2: Island theoretically, Oh.
Speaker 3: My god, you're really looking for a viral clip, aren't you.
Speaker 2: I did not want a viral clip. I did not
Speaker 2: want this posted. I did not tell the social body
Speaker 2: I want this posted. I'm making a point just to
Speaker 2: our listeners, the people who tune into this podcast, that
Speaker 2: I'm just using the extreme example to make a point
Speaker 2: that if when the press is not with the president,
Speaker 2: the president can do lots of things we don't know
Speaker 2: what are. He could have stopped in the UAE and
Speaker 2: cut a crypto deal.
Speaker 3: He could have He could have stopped in Moscow to
Speaker 3: hang out with his friend Vladimir.
Speaker 2: Pele could he could have picked up the P tape.
Speaker 3: He could have picked up the P tape.
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, all these things were possible protocol.
Speaker 3: Okay, Well, bigger picture, there's new reporting this week that
Speaker 3: around is tracking Trump's political problems very closely. I guess
Speaker 3: they're just they're looking at the looking at the RCP
Speaker 3: average to the silver bullets and Trump apprual rating, and
Speaker 3: they're looking to continue pushing negotiations far off past November
Speaker 3: so that the so that Trump pays a maximum price
Speaker 3: in the midterms seems like a if we're just going
Speaker 3: by political strategy, it does seem like a smart strategy
Speaker 3: on Iran's behalf.
Speaker 2: Now, on Ourn's part, Yeah, I mean, there's no question
Speaker 2: that they are correct to understand that Trump has very
Speaker 2: very little leverage during election season because the things that
Speaker 2: would allow the sort of military maneuvers that would allow
Speaker 2: him to gain an upper hand over the straight over
Speaker 2: Iran would raise gas prices in a way which would
Speaker 2: hurt his party in the midterms. So that they figured
Speaker 2: that out. Now, I think the question for Iran is
Speaker 2: what happens when Trump does and know what Trump cares
Speaker 2: about has to face the voters for two years. Like,
Speaker 2: if you're counting on Democrats to pass a War Powers
Speaker 2: resolution to stop the war, I don't think they're getting
Speaker 2: to a vet a proof majority of that.
Speaker 3: No.
Speaker 2: Could a democratic Congress make it harder to fund the war? Possibly,
Speaker 2: but this idea. But Trump may feel this is bad.
Speaker 2: I'm honistic believe this is bad.
Speaker 3: But it's not.
Speaker 2: Clear to me that Trump. Well it's not clear to me,
Speaker 2: and maybe it probably shouldn't be clear the Rdians what
Speaker 2: Trump does after the midterms.
Speaker 3: Well after let's talk about what's after the midterms. It
Speaker 3: is the beginning of the twenty twenty eight presidential race,
Speaker 3: and you've got presumably jd. Vance who wants to be president,
Speaker 3: maybe Mark or Rubio, maybe both of them together. And
Speaker 3: so there is an incentive at that point for the
Speaker 3: administration to finally give Iranians what they want, to get
Speaker 3: this off the table so that they don't win the
Speaker 3: war or win Well, how are they going to do that?
Speaker 3: I mean, that's ultimately what Iran is trying to forestall
Speaker 3: right now is more true? Like not that I think
Speaker 3: any of these things are going to happen per se.
Speaker 3: But like Trump taking carg Island, for instance, one of
Speaker 3: the things that was on the table earlier doesn't happen
Speaker 3: the midterms. Could that happen in twenty twenty seven? Maybe
Speaker 3: Trump launching all the other bombing. Yeah, like those sorts
Speaker 3: of things like the right now, Trump won't use the
Speaker 3: military stick against Iran to the extent he has the
Speaker 3: capacity to do so. Because of gas Price's election in
Speaker 3: the calendar year of twenty twenty seven, he is relieved
Speaker 3: of that political the restraining nature of politics potentially. So
Speaker 3: I don't The thing is, I don't know when Iran
Speaker 3: doesn't know either, said like this works in the short term,
Speaker 3: what happens in the medium and long term, who the
Speaker 3: hell knows. Yeah, horrible story though about the Jesus Christ
Speaker 3: to USS Lincoln and all those soldiers, and you know,
Speaker 3: the families have been described being like moldy showers and
Speaker 3: broken toilets and shortages of hot water and food. They've
Speaker 3: been trying to like figure this out. These the sailors
Speaker 3: and marines have been sending messages like just to and
Speaker 3: then of course someone asked Phigxeth today about it, and
Speaker 3: he's like, Oh, it's all overblown, overblown. I respect all
Speaker 3: these guys. They're great, they're doing a great job. It
Speaker 3: always always makes me feel bad that we talk about
Speaker 3: the war purely in terms of gas prices and oil
Speaker 3: prices because of the effect that it's having on politics here.
Speaker 3: But it's also like there's a lot of fucking US
Speaker 3: forces deployed in the Middle East who are in harm's
Speaker 3: way and who are also just have been away from
Speaker 3: their families forever and for what, for what?
Speaker 2: And the military did not prepare for this. Hence the
Speaker 2: conditions on the ships. Yeah, because they know they'd never believe,
Speaker 2: because they gave this zero thought that many many months later,
Speaker 2: they'd still be in a conflict with Iran.
Speaker 3: Missile stockpile estimates are that it won't recover until twenty thirty.
Speaker 3: That's a whole other thing, Like God forbid someone else
Speaker 3: at taxes. There's another war, Like we're not going to
Speaker 3: be ready at all because we have now depleted all
Speaker 3: of our military. We've sent soldiers for long, long deploy deployments.
Speaker 3: We don't have missiles and drones and all that kind
Speaker 3: of all those capabilities because of this stupid fucking war.
Speaker 3: It is it Like I kind of think that this
Speaker 3: is what do you think about like Democrats, like how
Speaker 3: they handle this over the next couple of months between
Speaker 3: now and the midterms, because to me, it seems like
Speaker 3: it is the main issue and it's not your use.
Speaker 3: It's like it combines both forever wars, which people hate,
Speaker 3: and it's causing high prices, which people hate. So it's
Speaker 3: like I feel like the whole you could run the
Speaker 3: whole campaign about Trump's disastrous war and what it's doing
Speaker 3: to prices and all that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it should be the centerpiece of the campaign. It's
Speaker 2: obviously it's best when tied to affordability, right, gas prices
Speaker 2: and that. You know, like one of the messages tested
Speaker 2: is the you know, they told us there wasn't enough
Speaker 2: money for health care and food assistants, but now we
Speaker 2: have money. We have billions of dollars for bombs in
Speaker 2: the Middle East and for wars abilities like that tests
Speaker 2: very well, it is, you know, so I think absolutely
Speaker 2: hammer Democrats should have no fear. There's a lot of
Speaker 2: sort of anxiety at the outset of this that what
Speaker 2: if we get on the wrong side of the conflict.
Speaker 2: And you know, we and we must begin every statement
Speaker 2: with a long throat clearing about how bad the Mullas
Speaker 2: and around are like. We don't like we were past
Speaker 2: that this is an incredibly unpopular war. It goes at affordability,
Speaker 2: It goes at Trump's incompetence, it goes at Trump's weakness,
Speaker 2: it goes to the chaos of his leadership style, and
Speaker 2: I think, really importantly, it goes to the broken promises.
Speaker 2: And when you see this in both focus groups and
Speaker 2: then in polling of people who regret who voted for
Speaker 2: Trump who were now disapprove of him, one of the
Speaker 2: top things that comes up is that he broke his promises.
Speaker 2: And one of those big promises is the war, which
Speaker 2: is tied to the other big promise, which is lowering prices.
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Speaker 3: Speaking of unpopular, we haven't checked in on ICE in
Speaker 3: a while, and it won't shock you to hear that
Speaker 3: the news is really bad. Here's what will shock you.
Speaker 3: Apologize for that.
Speaker 2: That's just the well, do the joke and then apologize.
Speaker 3: The new electric gloves ICE plans to spend twenty million
Speaker 3: dollars on so that agents and deliver a painful jolt
Speaker 3: to whoever they touch, rendering the person powerless to move
Speaker 3: or even stand. Uh. And now Tom Homan, you know
Speaker 3: he was on Fox talking about this is uh, this
Speaker 3: is uh, this is you know, we don't want to
Speaker 3: shoot everyone now, so we're trying this is supposed to
Speaker 3: be de escalation. This is a de escalation, right. Here's
Speaker 3: a compilation of the gloves being put to use from
Speaker 3: some of the videos that were circulating on Twittered, like
Speaker 3: a little girl and pee myself, go back with your glove,
Speaker 3: hid your hand, your hands, we're trying to get his
Speaker 3: hands out. Fucking insane.
Speaker 2: A bunch of a bunch of men to shocking each
Speaker 2: other for.
Speaker 3: Fun, I know, yeah that right, Yeah, there's a whole
Speaker 3: separate conversation. The manual this this that this company that
Speaker 3: makes the product that they put out. The manual says
Speaker 3: no more than two gloves on one person, generally, no
Speaker 3: more than fifteen seconds, never against verbal defiance, never as punishment,
Speaker 3: and not on the elderly, children, pregnant women, or people
Speaker 3: with serious disabilities. Guess what Ice has done already, like
Speaker 3: violated all of those things with how it has handled
Speaker 3: people before the gloves and the people that it has assaulted, injured, detained,
Speaker 3: and so I don't know, I think this is fucking awful.
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, it's just so ridiculous that Tom Homan's
Speaker 2: he like, it's a binary choice. Well, look, we have
Speaker 2: only two options. We can kill them in the street
Speaker 2: with our guns, or we can electrocute them. Those only
Speaker 2: two things, guys, you pick, you choose electrocution or bullets.
Speaker 3: Also, this is one that leaves not a lot of evidence.
Speaker 3: And so the idea that ICE is just going to
Speaker 3: be roaming the streets and if they see someone who
Speaker 3: they don't like what they said, they you know, sort
Speaker 3: of made fun of Ice or criticize them whatever, they
Speaker 3: can just walk over and just put hands on them
Speaker 3: and shot them and then like, no one's gonna know,
Speaker 3: I mean, like whose word against who's. It's just it's
Speaker 3: the potential for abuse on this one is vast.
Speaker 2: Yes, that is very, very true. And as Elijah pointed
Speaker 2: out a production meeting today, it's only a matter of
Speaker 2: time till one of these ICE guys goes pee with
Speaker 2: the gloves on.
Speaker 3: In this administration, that will almost certainly happen.
Speaker 2: Yes, it's wearing.
Speaker 3: And also with the kind of people they're recruiting now
Speaker 3: with ICE, yes, is people who meet no standards whatsoever. Meanwhile,
Speaker 3: there's been a new uptick in terrifying videos of people
Speaker 3: being confronted by ICE agents. On Monday, a massed agent
Speaker 3: pointed a gun at a US citizen named Carolina Molina
Speaker 3: at a shopping center in Virginia. ICE in DHS accused
Speaker 3: her of trying to run them over with her car,
Speaker 3: an assertion that's not all backed up by the video evidence. Afterwards,
Speaker 3: Molina told The Washington Is that it felt like a
Speaker 3: renee good situation. Here's some of that scene, as well
Speaker 3: as other recent ICE confrontations that are making the rounds
Speaker 3: almost over. Stop, full of stop, you are full of ship.
Speaker 3: You're not funny. You're not funny.
Speaker 2: I will arrest you.
Speaker 3: Keep it up.
Speaker 4: I don't know.
Speaker 5: The Domingo family self recording the tense moments when border
Speaker 5: patrol pulled them over Sunday afternoons, the couple complying with
Speaker 5: the officers orders, then hugging during this emotional goodbye when
Speaker 5: separated from their five children and detained.
Speaker 3: I know, there's like not a lot of new things
Speaker 3: to say about this because it's just horrific, But I
Speaker 3: think it is worth noting that it is still happening.
Speaker 3: It is happening all over the place. ICE has not
Speaker 3: de escalated at all. They are still trying to uh
Speaker 3: meet Steven Miller's dumb fucking quotas. Mark Waynemullen, the new
Speaker 3: DHS secretary, is already in trouble with like MAGA activists
Speaker 3: and the bass. You know, Laura Lumer and Steve Bannon
Speaker 3: already have said he should be fired because you know,
Speaker 3: he's not detaining and arresting and deporting enough people. So
Speaker 3: he's already feeling pressure to be even more aggressive in
Speaker 3: order to keep his job. So this is all happening still, Yeah.
Speaker 2: And it's just the only thing that has changed is
Speaker 2: they're not sitting out a press release before they do it, right.
Speaker 2: They're not inviting this, They're not inviting the MAGA influencers
Speaker 2: along for it. They're not inviting the Fox News crews.
Speaker 2: They're just doing it and hoping no one videotapes some
Speaker 2: when it happens.
Speaker 3: Did you see I heard I heard Tim Miller talk
Speaker 3: about this in the Bulwark pod, the letter in the
Speaker 3: Nation that this woman wrote. She is so this Iranian
Speaker 3: family there have green cards, legal residents, a couple of professors. Yeah,
Speaker 3: they're the husband and wife for professors, and uh and
Speaker 3: then they have a child as well. And because the
Speaker 3: husband is the son of a woman who was an
Speaker 3: Iranian official during the hostage crisis. I believe she was
Speaker 3: the spokesperson during the hostage crisis in nineteen seventy nine,
Speaker 3: and her son and his family moved to the United States,
Speaker 3: became college professors, had a kid, our permanent legal residents,
Speaker 3: and because like people online decided to make an issue
Speaker 3: of their association with Iran, then the state department just
Speaker 3: decided to on their own revoke their visas. They picked
Speaker 3: up the husband. They also picked up the wife and
Speaker 3: the child, and they separated them and they have shipped
Speaker 3: them to Texas where they've been in detention facilities for
Speaker 3: the last four months, four months with like just just
Speaker 3: holding them, holding the hostage for no reason, no due process,
Speaker 3: not even deporting them, not doing anything, just jailing them
Speaker 3: just because of an association of family member because some
Speaker 3: fucking idiot online decided to call them out.
Speaker 2: So it's just the whole thing is so just gross
Speaker 2: and morally bankrupt.
Speaker 3: I don't like I get that this won't be you know,
Speaker 3: I think when Minnesota is happening, we probably thought maybe
Speaker 3: this would be a big issue in the midterms. I'm
Speaker 3: guessing it will not be as big of an issue
Speaker 3: in the midterms, but is the best play here. The
Speaker 3: Democrats have to just hope we get Congress back, be
Speaker 3: able to conduct some kind of oversight over ice hold hearings,
Speaker 3: subpoena officials and documents, and then just change everything if
Speaker 3: a Democratic president wins, like it doesn't what else can
Speaker 3: people do at this point?
Speaker 2: So you're right that this is not going to be
Speaker 2: the biggest issue in the midterms, and it probably shouldn't be.
Speaker 2: The voters we need care about immigration. They absolutely do,
Speaker 2: but it's not their top issue, but it's not as
Speaker 2: complicated as I think a lot of people make it.
Speaker 2: Trump is eleven points underwater on immigration right now. This
Speaker 2: is it's not an issue of strength for him. He
Speaker 2: doesn't win by shifting the issue terrain to immigration. It
Speaker 2: doesn't help him. The videos like this hurt him when
Speaker 2: you track his approval rating drops since twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: Some of the biggest ones happened during first the Kilmar
Speaker 2: Abrigo Garcia Seacott stuff in the Springs twenty twenty five,
Speaker 2: and then after the killings of Alex Preddi and Renee
Speaker 2: Good in January of twenty twenty six. So it matters
Speaker 2: when these things come up, So no one should shy
Speaker 2: away from talking about it. Absolutely not. It's also worth
Speaker 2: pointing out to voters that once again, not only as
Speaker 2: ice bad, but we gave ice seven hundred billion dollars
Speaker 2: and we paid for it by cutting health care and
Speaker 2: food assistants. Like that's what the priority is. People don't
Speaker 2: like that, but when we so let's say we get
Speaker 2: to we get a majority, right, and we'll talk about
Speaker 2: the prospects for that later in the show. People should
Speaker 2: be realistic. We cannot we cannot realistically abolish ice, but
Speaker 2: we can hold hearings. We can, you know, shine a
Speaker 2: light on this. There can be accountability. We also have
Speaker 2: if we have the House and the Senate. But even
Speaker 2: if we have just the House, we have real leverage
Speaker 2: and budget negotiations if Democrats are willing to use it.
Speaker 3: So the one challenge on that one is because they
Speaker 3: passed so much ICE funding through reconciliation, like they could
Speaker 3: shut down the government. I mean we went through this right, Like, yeah,
Speaker 3: the Democrats could theoretically like shut down the government if
Speaker 3: we control Congress again, or hold up the whole budget
Speaker 3: over ICE funding. But because they have so much funding
Speaker 3: left over from reconciliation, like they can still do everything
Speaker 3: they want to do.
Speaker 2: Yes, I mean, we're right back in the same spot.
Speaker 2: But you can you could. You have a couple options here.
Speaker 2: One is you can take I hate to use this terminology,
Speaker 2: but you can take a different hostage and the ransom
Speaker 2: is changes in Ice. Other things Trumps want, right, you
Speaker 2: cannot give them. You can shut down the whole government
Speaker 2: of you can put real pressure on them once again,
Speaker 2: Ice has money, Like, there is a limit to what
Speaker 2: you can do here up until the moment you have
Speaker 2: a trifecta where well you you if we have a trifecta,
Speaker 2: you can do the following things. One, you can take
Speaker 2: that money and redirected elsewhere. You could with a trifecta
Speaker 2: abolish Ice in some way, shape or form.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, yeah, if we have a democratic president, then
Speaker 3: you do all those things. But yes, but for the
Speaker 3: next it'll be even winning back Congress, it'll be hard
Speaker 3: for the next two years to do anything outside of
Speaker 3: threatening to shut down the government over over Ice. But
Speaker 3: you know, like you said, take a different hostage, or
Speaker 3: probably the most likely path is to hold all kinds
Speaker 3: of hearings and oversight.
Speaker 2: And you can get I mean, which will hopefully sort
Speaker 2: of till the ground for the battles to come when
Speaker 2: you have the trifecta, but you can't like some of
Speaker 2: the policy changes we did not get in this time,
Speaker 2: you can make another run at in eight.
Speaker 3: I also think it's worth saying that just from a
Speaker 3: and we talk about about politics and campaigns and what's
Speaker 3: most likely to help win an election. But when these
Speaker 3: stories are in the news, and when public officials, whether
Speaker 3: their local, state or national talk about them and lift
Speaker 3: up the stories, like the politics are bad for the
Speaker 3: Trump administration. Usually when they are, when Donald Trump's approval
Speaker 3: ratings in the shitter, he turns to immigration to try
Speaker 3: to get his mojo back. And it is telling that
Speaker 3: they have chosen, you know, the democratic socialist communist threat
Speaker 3: over immigration this time around, because they just went through
Speaker 3: a cycle back. I don't know when it was earlier
Speaker 3: this year, last year, when their immigration agenda was underwater
Speaker 3: and became pretty unpopular. Not as unpopular as how he
Speaker 3: handles cost of living or jobs or any or through
Speaker 3: around war, but still unpopular.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's not an advantage for him anymore, which is
Speaker 2: a huge change in the huge firmament.
Speaker 3: Yeah, all right. This week's Democratic primaries were one of
Speaker 3: the last contests before the midterms. A week after Abdul
Speaker 3: Elsaiya defeated the establishment back to Hailey Stevens by just
Speaker 3: under a point in the Michigan Senate primary, the more
Speaker 3: moderate David Crowley eked out an upset over Democratic socialist
Speaker 3: Francesca hang in the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary. In Minnesota, the
Speaker 3: more progressive Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan beat Congresswoman Angie Craig
Speaker 3: by twenty points. In Connecticut, the center left mayor of Hartford,
Speaker 3: Luke Bronan, knocked off seventy eight year old Congressman John Larson,
Speaker 3: making him making Larson the seventh House Democrat to lose
Speaker 3: a primary this year and the fifth past his retirement age.
Speaker 3: Twenty twenty six is now tied with twenty twelve. Is
Speaker 3: the worst year for Democratic incumbents in primaries this century.
Speaker 3: When you step back and squint at all the primary
Speaker 3: results this year, do they tell to you any kind
Speaker 3: of cohesive story about Democratic voters and the Democratic Party.
Speaker 2: It's complicated, but yes, if you look at all the results,
Speaker 2: all the ones we've had all of the DSA wins,
Speaker 2: the incumbents who got elected, the combants who got defeated.
Speaker 2: I think you can take a couple of things from this.
Speaker 2: One Democrats are furious that Donald Trump's president. Two Democrats
Speaker 2: are incredibly skeptical and distrustful of their own leaders, their
Speaker 2: own institutions, and the way the party has done politics
Speaker 2: in the past. Democrats are incredibly fired up about voting.
Speaker 2: They are turning out in huge numbers, Like in Wisconsin.
Speaker 2: This is a statistic blew me away. Nearly two hund
Speaker 2: and fifty thousand more people voted in this Wisconsin primary
Speaker 2: than in twenty eighteen, the year of the big Blue Wave.
Speaker 3: I know that's wild.
Speaker 2: Now, what I think is, when you look at all
Speaker 2: of this, it sort of belies the overly simplistic narratives
Speaker 2: that people who talk about politics wiliving and tries to
Speaker 2: gm this through DSA vers centrists, left first, right institution
Speaker 2: versus anti institution, even generational like. It's a lot of
Speaker 2: these races. And the thing is, the Wisconsin and Michigan
Speaker 2: races come by. If eighteen thousand votes between the two
Speaker 2: of them had gone a different way, we would have
Speaker 2: been like DSA is dead. Long live the moderates or
Speaker 2: or like go comrade socialists have one and it's all
Speaker 2: more complicated, and voters looked at it and made decisions,
Speaker 2: and there was some local factors in all of them.
Speaker 2: I think the one thing that is true is that
Speaker 2: voters are looking for fresh faces, and those fresh faces
Speaker 2: are often younger. And we saw that and all the
Speaker 2: incumbents you mentioned, it is a fresh face who has
Speaker 2: come in and beating them in almost always a younger one.
Speaker 2: And you know, and I think that that, like the
Speaker 2: Democratic voters are done with the gerontocracy.
Speaker 3: To your point about how many more voters are participating
Speaker 3: in this year's primaries versus twenty eighteen, or at least
Speaker 3: in Wisconsin, is part of that that people who usually
Speaker 3: just vote in a gener roal election but not a
Speaker 3: primary are now voting in a primary. I thought I
Speaker 3: saw somewhere that like just the interest is so high
Speaker 3: that even a lot of normy Democrats quote unquote who
Speaker 3: usually just turn out in a general but not a primary,
Speaker 3: are now like interested enough and engage enough that they
Speaker 3: want to participate in the primary.
Speaker 2: Yes, that's definitely happening. Wisconsin is particularly impressive. You have
Speaker 2: to run out because Wisconsin's one of the highest turnout
Speaker 2: states in the country. But yeah, I think the stakes
Speaker 2: of these primaries feel very high to people because I
Speaker 2: think there is a real question about where our party
Speaker 2: is going, and people want to have a say in that.
Speaker 2: So they are turning out and it like it does.
Speaker 2: It felt that way, Wisconsin felt that way, in Michigan
Speaker 2: in these races. It's certainly I think that to the
Speaker 2: people in New York City in those races, or in
Speaker 2: the Colorado one, it felt that way where it's like,
Speaker 2: our party is going to go one of two ways,
Speaker 2: and I want to have a say in which way
Speaker 2: it goes, because the direction we choose is going to matter,
Speaker 2: not just in the twenty twenty six but in twenty
Speaker 2: twenty eight and beyond.
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Speaker 3: So on that note, the primary results have inevitably led
Speaker 3: to another round of electability discourse, easily one of the
Speaker 3: top five discourses in the Democratic Party. What are you?
Speaker 3: What else is on the list? Let's see motivation versus persuasion, motivation,
Speaker 3: persuasion left versus center left? Yeah, let's see, uh, orange
Speaker 3: man bad is the best as the as the best
Speaker 3: political strategy?
Speaker 2: Yes for us? Yeah? Okay, how M should we focus
Speaker 2: on Trump?
Speaker 3: Right? Right? Wokeness? It's kind of a relatively new one.
Speaker 3: I don't know. I'm just kind of shooting from the
Speaker 3: hip here. How are Democratic voters judging which candidate is
Speaker 3: more electable here in twenty twenty six based on everything
Speaker 3: that you have seen thus far this year?
Speaker 2: I think, like the pundits, the voters don't know who's
Speaker 2: more electable, and that is showing up at these races
Speaker 2: as people are making different choices. What I think is
Speaker 2: interesting is electability. There's been this big discussion, like voter
Speaker 2: in the Trump era, of Democratic voters care a lot
Speaker 2: about electability, and that is true. But it's also always
Speaker 2: been true, and it is also an axiomatic thing, which
Speaker 2: is you want do you want? Do you want someone
Speaker 2: who can win or do you want someone who is
Speaker 2: less likely to win but agrees with you. People always
Speaker 2: pick the one who's going to win. You even look
Speaker 2: at the even before Trump in two thousand and four,
Speaker 2: when the Democratic primary that you were working on was
Speaker 2: going forward, people all of a sudden were like, wait
Speaker 2: a minute, we're going to run the anti war governor
Speaker 2: of Vermont against George W. Bush. That's not a good idea.
Speaker 2: And then they immediately shifted to John Kerry the war
Speaker 2: hero didn't work out great, but you understand the thinking
Speaker 2: that got them there. In twenty twenty, electability drove Biden's nomination.
Speaker 2: Six in ten voters in a Gallup poll at that
Speaker 2: time said they'd rather have someone who is more likely
Speaker 2: to beat Trump than someone who they agreed with on
Speaker 2: policy issues. In the exit polls of the primary states,
Speaker 2: six in ten voters in most cases said electability was
Speaker 2: their top issue. People care about it. What is different now,
Speaker 2: and I believe you see this in both Wisconsin and Michigan,
Speaker 2: is that the voters no longer trust the Democratic Party
Speaker 2: establishment and the experts to tell them who is most selectable,
Speaker 2: and they have to see it with their own eyes
Speaker 2: and make their own judgment, because you haven't.
Speaker 3: Michigan unless it's Tony Evers.
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I think we can debate Tony. Tony
Speaker 2: Evers obviously play a huge role on this. But this
Speaker 2: is the reustweet Michigan Wisconsin is all of the voices
Speaker 2: were saying Abdul is less selectable. Voters looked at that race,
Speaker 2: They looked at him. It was not patently obvious to him,
Speaker 2: meant to enough of them that he was less electable
Speaker 2: than Hilly Stevens Wisconsin. Evers made elect to build a
Speaker 2: number one issue down the stretch by announcing that he
Speaker 2: thought Hong could not win or was unlikely to win
Speaker 2: if she was the nominee. But then Hong went on
Speaker 2: a media tour where she did not acquit herself great
Speaker 2: and raise and sort of amplified the questions that Evers
Speaker 2: had raised and votes, so voters looked at that. I
Speaker 2: think if Evers had said she can't win and then
Speaker 2: she had done fine, they probably would have still picked Hong.
Speaker 2: But because of that, enough of people changed their mind
Speaker 2: in the final days to do it. And then in Minnesota,
Speaker 2: where Angie Craig made electability of the centerpiece of issue,
Speaker 2: no one thought we would lose that seat, so they
Speaker 2: didn't care.
Speaker 3: I think that's a really important point that's getting lost
Speaker 3: in the Minnesota example, because I think it sort of
Speaker 3: like I think a lot of voters, especially like highly
Speaker 3: engaged voters who pay attention to this, who are the
Speaker 3: voters that vote in primaries, They try to make rational
Speaker 3: decisions about who is going to who they think is
Speaker 3: going to win the race, right, And if you're in
Speaker 3: a state like Minnesota, where it just seems like the
Speaker 3: Democrat is going to win. And now Minnesota is not
Speaker 3: like a deep blue state, but you could make a
Speaker 3: good argument that Angie Craig or Peggy Flanagan, whoever won
Speaker 3: that nomination was going to Yes, it was going to
Speaker 3: be a heavy favorite. It yes, right, like a likely DC.
Speaker 3: And so in that scenario, as a voter, you look
Speaker 3: at the choices and you're like, well, now I am
Speaker 3: free to just support whoever I want to support that
Speaker 3: I leave in the most and you know, Peggy Flana
Speaker 3: again wins by twenty points in Wisconsin. You have to
Speaker 3: imagine there were a bunch of Francesca Hall people who
Speaker 3: really liked Francesca Hang and probably agreed with her more
Speaker 3: on the issues, or found her campaign more inspiring or
Speaker 3: whatever it may be than David Crowley, but looked around,
Speaker 3: looked at polls, looked at her performances, maybe looked at
Speaker 3: their governor that they like very much, even though he's
Speaker 3: older in establishment, and said, you know what, can't do it,
Speaker 3: can't do it. It's too important to win this day.
Speaker 3: And like that seems to me like a entire like
Speaker 3: I know everyone always says, like, well, electability is all
Speaker 3: subjective and it doesn't matter. But like I do, think
Speaker 3: there have to be some sort of objective standards by
Speaker 3: which to judge electability that I think voters are trying
Speaker 3: to sort of figure out on their own.
Speaker 2: There are I think the way I like to think
Speaker 2: about it is no one knows for sure who is
Speaker 2: lexible and who isn't, and the political environment is much
Speaker 2: more important than the quality of any individual candidate. But
Speaker 2: there are things we can look at. They give us
Speaker 2: an idea on people selectability, one of which is how
Speaker 2: they hit. What is their history of winning tough races?
Speaker 2: Do they have? It is their actual evidence of them
Speaker 2: winning every swing voters. This is quantified by split ticket
Speaker 2: and their wins over replacement model. But you can just
Speaker 2: like we know that Andy Basheer and Josh Shapiro can
Speaker 2: win over Republican voters. They have proven that in multiplications.
Speaker 2: Do we know they Gavin Newsome or aoc canto it?
Speaker 2: We do not know that. Can they maybe? But they've
Speaker 2: never proven to be for so that's an untested proposition.
Speaker 3: We should say back because it's actually very useful for people.
Speaker 3: I think is the wins above replacement sort of calculation Basically,
Speaker 3: what split Ticket has done is and other people have
Speaker 3: done think similar, But what they've done is they come
Speaker 3: up with like a baseline right, so off like the
Speaker 3: base line generic democrat do, right, how would a generic
Speaker 3: Democrat do? So what was like the national sort of
Speaker 3: was the national House vote or and they put a
Speaker 3: whole bunch of factors into it. And so if a
Speaker 3: if a regular Democrat, if a generic Democrat would win
Speaker 3: this race by two points, and ex candidate wins it
Speaker 3: by four points, then their plus two win above replacement.
Speaker 3: If the other Democrat still wins the race but only
Speaker 3: wins it by one point, then they're minus one wins
Speaker 3: above replacement. And you can do this with all the
Speaker 3: different House candidates and all the different Now, what was
Speaker 3: interesting in the case of Michigan is, first of all,
Speaker 3: a duel had run once for governor and lost so
Speaker 3: in a primary, so he didn't have a long record there.
Speaker 3: Haley Stevens was sort of the lowest wins above average
Speaker 3: of any of the Democrats in the House in Michigan,
Speaker 3: which I hadn't realized. So in that scenario you actually
Speaker 3: didn't like it. Seemed like Hailey Stevens was like because
Speaker 3: she was more moderate and backed by the establishment. Like
Speaker 3: maybe it's thinks she is more electable, but in terms
Speaker 3: of the the objective measures you had, that wasn't necessarily
Speaker 3: the case. Sure enough the argument which is, you know,
Speaker 3: lecture Jane, who's the polster for the argument and does
Speaker 3: the and also is split ticket does the wins above replacement?
Speaker 3: He said that they had in their model, if they
Speaker 3: have abdul is a seventy percent chance of winning the
Speaker 3: general and Hailey Stevens would have been eighty percent chance.
Speaker 3: So it's like ten percent difference. Is it's something, but
Speaker 3: it's not.
Speaker 2: It's big. It's actually we could different between seventy and
Speaker 2: eighty doesn't feel huge. Difference between fifty and forty feels
Speaker 2: quite big when you get there. Well, but that I
Speaker 2: think that's the other that gets you to the other measures,
Speaker 2: which not then you get past data, right, Yeah, And
Speaker 2: so then there is the question of extremism, and it
Speaker 2: is a there is. It's not always true, but it
Speaker 2: is mostly true that the candidate who is seen as
Speaker 2: more extreme loses. This is the thing that makes people
Speaker 2: want to throw their phone in the ocean. But Donald
Speaker 2: Trump was seen is more moderate than Kamala Harris in
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four and Joe Biden was seen is more
Speaker 2: moderate than Donald Trump in twenty twenty And so you
Speaker 2: look at that and you say, does ab do Like
Speaker 2: if you take Michigan for instance, you would say, does
Speaker 2: Abdull have positions and statements that could be used to
Speaker 2: make him see more extreme than Hailey Stevens. Possibly. I
Speaker 2: think that's probably where you get to this, that that
Speaker 2: net difference for them. Then the third thing is candidate quality.
Speaker 2: And this is all subjective where you're like, does this
Speaker 2: person seem like they can stand in This is gonna
Speaker 2: particularly true in a presdential debate. Can the presidential election?
Speaker 2: Can they stand on the stage with jd Vance or
Speaker 2: Marco Rubio or Tucker Carls somewhere else and like hold
Speaker 2: their own do they can they go on podcasts? Can
Speaker 2: they give a good speech? Can they do those things?
Speaker 2: And that I think is where Abdul seemed like he could,
Speaker 2: Like he really showed a lot of candidate skill, and
Speaker 2: Haley just ran a campaign in the end that where
Speaker 2: she was just not very present in the media, so
Speaker 2: people didn't see her, although I would say she here
Speaker 2: her post election media tour, she has crushed. Yeah, and
Speaker 2: then Hong went on this huge media tour, did every
Speaker 2: interview seemed ill prepared for a lot of them, and
Speaker 2: that people saw that with the Rownai so it's like, yes,
Speaker 2: ever said that, but then everyone actually saw clips that
Speaker 2: made them say maybe this person cannot win or is
Speaker 2: less likely to win.
Speaker 3: Well that's why Too was like, yeah, it is objective,
Speaker 3: and no one really knows who's electable or not. Is
Speaker 3: technically true, but all of this exists on a spectrum,
Speaker 3: and there are some people where you're like, who's the
Speaker 3: more electable candidate? Well, they're both kind of good on
Speaker 3: TV and sometimes they make mistakes, but one's inspiring for
Speaker 3: this reason and they're like, that's a close call with
Speaker 3: like when Francesca hang goes on TV and is like, uh, well,
Speaker 3: let's it have it has to talk about canceling Thanksgiving
Speaker 3: and and why you know police exists to uphold white supremacy.
Speaker 3: Most people, most people who don't pay attention to politics,
Speaker 3: if you if you showed them that clip, they'd be like, yeah,
Speaker 3: that's weird, No thank you, that's that's an easier or
Speaker 3: or let's take another example, the Biden Trump debate, right, like,
Speaker 3: and Biden does perform so perform so horribly that afterwards
Speaker 3: it's like, okay, yeah, there's there's like nitpicky debate, you know,
Speaker 3: figure skating judge quality to analyzing debates. But that's an
Speaker 3: easy call. Most most people be like that's awful.
Speaker 2: Right, See, these are extreme examples. But the problem it
Speaker 2: gets harder, like as we get to the presidential election, right,
Speaker 2: and so imagine you're down to at the end, I'm
Speaker 2: just picking these sort of randomly, Gavin Newsom, Pete Buddhage Edge,
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris, aoc Ooh, like yeah, say they're all like
Speaker 2: you can make a case for all of them. And
Speaker 2: then it becomes more subjected. And then the thing that
Speaker 2: I think is important to note, and this is like
Speaker 2: a huge problem in twenty twenty is the electability discourse
Speaker 2: is very racially engender coded, and there's just like there
Speaker 2: is This is particularly true in twenty twenty, where it's
Speaker 2: just we alter the election through the mind of a
Speaker 2: white dude in Wisconsin, and like who do they want?
Speaker 2: And people you hear this in focus groups all the time.
Speaker 2: People project onto voters they do not know biases. It's
Speaker 2: like Kama Harris did with pe Pootage is the VP
Speaker 2: where you say, well, he's a gay man, that's too
Speaker 2: much for America, and that's like that very and that
Speaker 2: and if you take that, but if you take that,
Speaker 2: you never like you would have said, you also would
Speaker 2: have said Broacu state Obama too much for America. There
Speaker 2: are times like it's just it is, It's just I
Speaker 2: think the discourse is. There are some things you can
Speaker 2: look at it for a real there are some things
Speaker 2: that makes it very quite complicated, and and certain can
Speaker 2: narrow the aperture of what you're looking for. You're not
Speaker 2: even doing it based on data. You're doing it as
Speaker 2: of perceived biases of the electorate or small sample sizes
Speaker 2: of women losing presidential elections.
Speaker 3: Sometimes I think we confuse in the electability discourse the
Speaker 3: very real proceed biases in the election in the electorate, right,
Speaker 3: and the fact that a lot of this electability discourse
Speaker 3: is absolutely gender and racially coded with Okay, but that's
Speaker 3: that is true. That is how people think, and what
Speaker 3: does a candidate in the campaign do to overcome that. So, yes,
Speaker 3: people thought that Barack Obama was couldn't be president because
Speaker 3: how are we going to elect a black guy named
Speaker 3: Barack Hussein Obama from Chicago as president the United States?
Speaker 3: When we just lost with the War Hero against George W.
Speaker 3: Bush and and even black voters in South Carolina at
Speaker 3: the beginning of the campaign did not think that Barack
Speaker 3: Obama was ready to become president. So what did Barack
Speaker 3: Obama do? He won over a bunch of white voters
Speaker 3: in Iowa and proved that maybe it's not so crazy
Speaker 3: to think that a black man named Obama could become president.
Speaker 3: So part of this is realizing the biases that exist
Speaker 3: in the electorate and then and then putting together a
Speaker 3: strategy to overcome those biases and prove yourself. Unfair as
Speaker 3: it may be, it is the world that we live, yeah, And.
Speaker 2: What makes it more unfair, And this is where it
Speaker 2: played in twenty twenty is there's a lot of the
Speaker 2: campaign that ever happens before you get to actual voters. Yeah,
Speaker 2: And so it's like, you need money, you need attention,
Speaker 2: and when people like there was a Elizabeth Warren was
Speaker 2: at the top of the polls, and so there was
Speaker 2: a Nearer Time story about how Elizabeth Warren probably couldn't
Speaker 2: beat Trump and she really tanked after that because the
Speaker 2: hyper engaged Democrats, particularly once at Iowa New Hampshire, We're like,
Speaker 2: oh wait, we love Elizabeth Warren, we like her policies,
Speaker 2: but she probably can't beat Trump. Well, then we six
Speaker 2: and ten of us would prefer to have somebody who
Speaker 2: could be Trump.
Speaker 3: And this is going this is going to absolutely shade
Speaker 3: a lot of the discourse going into twenty twenty eight. Yeah,
Speaker 3: particularly because we have lost to Donald Trump two times now, yep,
Speaker 3: you know, and so like, you know, unfairly or not,
Speaker 3: it's going to be a huge part of it's going
Speaker 3: to be it's going to be I think hard for
Speaker 3: a lot of these candidates to overcome it. But you know,
Speaker 3: stranger things have happened. Barack Obama became president had Dave
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Speaker 3: drink ag one dot com slash crooked. The poles were
Speaker 3: off by a decent amount in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota
Speaker 3: for different reasons. As the host of Polar Coaster, you
Speaker 3: are therefore required to defend the switchcraft that you keep
Speaker 3: telling us will predict the future with near certainty.
Speaker 2: Yes, that is that is what we say. The polls
Speaker 2: are not a snapshot in time. They're not at in
Speaker 2: precise measure. They are perfect too, saying yeah, look, I
Speaker 2: think if we look at these, the polls were very wrong.
Speaker 2: But let's talk about what that means in this case. One,
Speaker 2: it's worth noting that primary polls are often quite wrong. Yeah,
Speaker 2: Like they have a long history of being wrong. That
Speaker 2: has become more true in this era where it becomes
Speaker 2: almost impossible to get anyone to take a poll, because
Speaker 2: polling is now looks much more like election modeling, where
Speaker 2: you're guessing what the electorate looks like in advance and
Speaker 2: then waiting your very random sample to match that. And
Speaker 2: so if you guess the if you model the electorate wrong,
Speaker 2: you were going to miss everything. And that it's easier
Speaker 2: to model in a general election, particularly now we've had
Speaker 2: a bunch of them in the Trump era, which is
Speaker 2: why the poles were more accurate at twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2: But that's even harder in a primary. It's particularly hard
Speaker 2: in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota because those are open primary
Speaker 2: states where independence and Republicans can vote. It's one of
Speaker 2: the reasons that even it appear here is that the
Speaker 2: internal campaign polls were all wrong, because in those states,
Speaker 2: you can't even go off the voter file. It's a
Speaker 2: poll you are basically doing. You either these media polsters
Speaker 2: are relying on self reported party ID and the campaigns
Speaker 2: are using modeled support where they sort of guess whether
Speaker 2: someone's Republican or Democrat. But you go into it, you
Speaker 2: have no idea how many independents are going to Like
Speaker 2: they walk in to the to the voting booth and
Speaker 2: they pick a ballot, they get to choose right there,
Speaker 2: and so it's very hard to know. It also seems
Speaker 2: very clear that in these states the polsters over sampled
Speaker 2: young voters, and these young voters tend to be more progressive.
Speaker 2: They they're the ones supporting a duel and Flannagan and Hong,
Speaker 2: and that's a that's a misjudgment of how many people vote.
Speaker 2: And they are undersampling working class voters in particularly in
Speaker 2: Wisconsin and Michigan, black voters, and then The other thing
Speaker 2: I'd say is most of the polls that we saw
Speaker 2: were not high quality polls. We don't have New York
Speaker 2: Times Siena polls of these races. Marquette did poll. Marquette
Speaker 2: as a highly re polster. They did poll in Wisconsin
Speaker 2: and were wrong. But their polls actually more than a
Speaker 2: week old by the time the election happened. And one
Speaker 2: things that we you know, you'd get a poll a
Speaker 2: week out and it says the race is tied, and
Speaker 2: then one candid wins by three. Everyone says the poll
Speaker 2: is wrong. It's like, well, it's also possible addition to that,
Speaker 2: just being the Martian eferror, people changed their mind. Undecideds
Speaker 2: move and in Wisconsin in particular, it seems very clear
Speaker 2: that there was real movement at the end. You had
Speaker 2: like in that the state Navigate did a poll that
Speaker 2: was like five days out that ended up being quite wrong.
Speaker 2: But in that poll, so you had nine percent of
Speaker 2: undecided voters. All those voters seemed to have gone to Crowley.
Speaker 2: You had a bunch of other candidates in the field,
Speaker 2: who's including two in Mandela Bars and Sara Driguez, who
Speaker 2: had dropped out of the race, and they had supporters,
Speaker 2: and some of those supporters went to David Crowley. And
Speaker 2: so what poll like we.
Speaker 3: Had set polls, she hit her. Francesco Hung was basically
Speaker 3: pulling around forty percent, which is what she got.
Speaker 2: Like in some of these polls she was over she
Speaker 2: was four or five points over forty. But yes, it
Speaker 2: basically got her within a reasonable polling error. Right, they
Speaker 2: got her number. And what happened is everything else moved
Speaker 2: towards Crowley and and he like he had momentum, she
Speaker 2: was struggling down the stretch. He spent four million dollars
Speaker 2: like in the last week, couple week, ten days or
Speaker 2: so on broadcast in linear television, which I think made
Speaker 2: a huge difference. And so we have to remember that
Speaker 2: people changed their minds, vote undecided voters to side, and
Speaker 2: that is what affects the final margin, and that it's
Speaker 2: a certainly a huge factor in what happened, at least
Speaker 2: in Wisconsin, probably to some extent in Michigan as well.
Speaker 3: Minnesota's a little more confusing to me because in that one,
Speaker 3: the polls towards the end showed it kind of close,
Speaker 3: and then instead Penny Flap Peggy Flann again. The more
Speaker 3: progressive candidate won by twenty points, So they underestimated the
Speaker 3: more progressive candidate in Minnesota.
Speaker 2: Yeah, those poles might just been wrong.
Speaker 3: It just goes to show you I think that, like
Speaker 3: it's a number of different factors, and it's like I
Speaker 3: wouldn't think to ourselves as we go into the midterms,
Speaker 3: and you tell me if I'm wrong that, like, oh no,
Speaker 3: they're always gonna over sample younger voters and the polls
Speaker 3: are all going to be off. Because that didn't happen
Speaker 3: in Minnesota, it hasn't happened in other places.
Speaker 2: It's possible. It's also worth remembering that in twenty twenty
Speaker 2: five they polls in New Jersey and Virginia were off.
Speaker 2: They were very far off in New Jersey, and they
Speaker 2: undersampled Democrats in that case or over simple Republicans. And
Speaker 2: it's going to be interesting. This is the I mean,
Speaker 2: we're getting super nerdy here, but they're in. They were
Speaker 2: wrong in sixteen, the polls were right in twenty eighteen.
Speaker 2: Twenty eighteen perhaved like a normal midterm because all these
Speaker 2: low engaged Trump voters did not turn out in that one.
Speaker 2: Twenty twenty, they were incredibly wrong twenty twenty two, they
Speaker 2: were actually quite right. Every No one believes that because
Speaker 2: everyone thought the red wave was coming, but the poles
Speaker 2: were historically accurate in that race. And then in twenty
Speaker 2: twenty four the polls were right again. But the pollsters
Speaker 2: for the most part. There are some exceptions, and Nate
Speaker 2: Cone of The Times included, but they took us basically
Speaker 2: like a statistical sledgehammer to jam more Trump voters into
Speaker 2: the polls, which worked. How they're going to factor in
Speaker 2: and model Republican turnout in this election, and how they're
Speaker 2: going to try to accommodate, like what the what is
Speaker 2: the baseline? Are you? If you do it? What are
Speaker 2: you waiting? They waited basically in twenty twenty four, they
Speaker 2: waited the poll to the twenty twenty vote share. I
Speaker 2: don't know how they're going to do this here. It's
Speaker 2: going to be very interesting to say.
Speaker 3: I should probably bring this up since it's sort of
Speaker 3: breaking here as we're talking. But Fox News at least
Speaker 3: two Senate polls Michigan Mike Rogers fifty one, Abdul forty
Speaker 3: seven and then shared in Ohio is up by the
Speaker 3: same as he was last time, which is fifty three
Speaker 3: forty five. I don't know if I buy either of those.
Speaker 5: Truth.
Speaker 2: I mean, shared Brown is not winning Ohio by eight,
Speaker 2: that be that that'd be a nineteen point over performance
Speaker 2: twenty four.
Speaker 3: That to me seems further off than.
Speaker 2: The Yeah, I would say that both of those races
Speaker 2: end up being closer, closer, and like two point races.
Speaker 2: I think there's a world where Abduel could win by
Speaker 2: four or five. I find it highly unlikely that Mike
Speaker 2: Rodgers could win by that much. Yeah, but I think
Speaker 2: there's work for Abduel to do. I think he has
Speaker 2: real work to do. And it's like he in all
Speaker 2: of the polling, even the once it showed him doing
Speaker 2: the same as Haley Stevens against Mike Rodgers, he was
Speaker 2: dramatically underperforming. The political environment, it should be this is Michigan,
Speaker 2: it's fifty to fifty state. It should be he should
Speaker 2: be starting with six points in his pocket.
Speaker 3: Right, because yeah, because so everyone knows, even though Michigan's close,
Speaker 3: if the national environment is six points more favorable to
Speaker 3: Democrats than it was in twenty twenty four, then yeah,
Speaker 3: that's how you get that. Speaking of election forecasts, that
Speaker 3: promise one hundred percent accurate. Nate Silver dropped his midterm
Speaker 3: model this week, called Forecast with Leading Indicators, Polls and
Speaker 3: expert ratings or Flipper for sure, you want to call
Speaker 3: it flipper. So Nate's forecasts have historically been closer to
Speaker 3: the mark than I think most other models. He's not
Speaker 3: known as someone who's who's biased towards Democrats or Republicans
Speaker 3: in his modeling, but it is notable that he gives
Speaker 3: Democrats as of this recording, an eighty six point one
Speaker 3: percent chance of winning the House, and I said, as
Speaker 3: of this recording, fifty six percent chance of winning the Senate.
Speaker 3: But I bet once he throws in that Michigan poll
Speaker 3: that might go down a little bit.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Fox is an a rated poll, and so
Speaker 2: that will that will bring that down.
Speaker 3: Yeah. And since it just came out, I'm sure he
Speaker 3: hasn't updated it yet, but by the time you listen
Speaker 3: to this, it will be updated. What do you think
Speaker 3: of Nate's forecast and what should people know about what
Speaker 3: goes into that besides just polling, because I think some
Speaker 3: people probably just assume that it's a polling aggregator where
Speaker 3: you're just throwing a bunch of polls together and averaging
Speaker 3: them out, which it's not.
Speaker 1: Yes.
Speaker 2: For a long time, the real clear politics pulling average
Speaker 2: was what everyone followed, and that really was just math
Speaker 2: where they added all the polls together and then divided
Speaker 2: by the number of polls at the average as if
Speaker 2: they were in fifth grade math. What Nate does in
Speaker 2: others like Laksha Jane do that's much more complicated, is
Speaker 2: they build a statistical model that takes in pulling. They
Speaker 2: then Nate at least waits the polsters based on quality
Speaker 2: of the poll he actually has in the past. I
Speaker 2: don't know if he's doing this in the case is
Speaker 2: established what it calls a house bias that some polsters
Speaker 2: over time are tend to be more democratic or more Republican,
Speaker 2: and then he will factor in that house bias into it.
Speaker 2: He will also includes fundamentals like how much money the
Speaker 2: campaigns of the campaigns have raised, the larger political environment,
Speaker 2: there is a benefit to incumbency in these races, and
Speaker 2: fits that in. And then this time, actually he has
Speaker 2: three versions of his model. The deluxe model if you
Speaker 2: will actually factors in the expert ratings from like Political
Speaker 2: Report and others. It's you know, it's you know, it's
Speaker 2: interesting too if you read his methodology page, because the
Speaker 2: poles have been so wrong. He's overweighting towards fundamentals this time,
Speaker 2: or he's been putting that overight, he's putting more weight
Speaker 2: on fundamentals than he has in the past. Interesting, which
Speaker 2: is which is interesting, And I'm gonna be very, very
Speaker 2: interested to see what the Michigan pole, which by the
Speaker 2: time you guys are listening to this, you may be
Speaker 2: able to go to his site and check it out.
Speaker 2: But how that changes it? Because if I recall correctly,
Speaker 2: I think maybe this was lectual Jane, but I don't
Speaker 2: want to I don't want to smear him with in
Speaker 2: cases it was an incorrect take. But basically some in
Speaker 2: some people's model that if Democrat Democrats chances of winning
Speaker 2: the how the Senate are, you know, let's say they're
Speaker 2: fifty seven or whatever it is, If they lose Michigan,
Speaker 2: that number drops into the like the thirties. Yeah, So
Speaker 2: that if Michigan, Michigan is a you really need Michigan
Speaker 2: to take the Senate and if and if we are
Speaker 2: a poll that shows us losing Michigan badly will probably
Speaker 2: move move the Senate forecasts a little.
Speaker 3: Bit at least, So think the Senate forecast started even
Speaker 3: higher than fifty six percent and it went down to
Speaker 3: fifty six today because Yeah, there was an Emerson poll
Speaker 3: that showed tell Errico down one in Texas.
Speaker 2: I'll tell you what, though, that poll shows Tillerco is
Speaker 2: seventy percent of the black vote. And if he is
Speaker 2: down one with seventy percent of the black vote in Texas,
Speaker 2: then he is going to be He's going to win
Speaker 2: by fairmount, which I think that I think that is
Speaker 2: a that they probably not enough voter staff shuld have it,
Speaker 2: but he's that he's going to get a lot more
Speaker 2: than seventy percent of black voote.
Speaker 3: Now, we're not in the prediction business, and you know
Speaker 3: we always warn you about these things, So what good
Speaker 3: is an election forecast for all of you? I do
Speaker 3: think that one of the more interesting parts of Nate's
Speaker 3: forecast Nates model is in for the house races, they
Speaker 3: show you, like what are the closest house races in
Speaker 3: the country, and that can like that list can update.
Speaker 3: And I think if you're you know, if you want
Speaker 3: to volunteer, if you want to donate money. It is
Speaker 3: kind of helpful to look and see the closest house races,
Speaker 3: the closest Senate races, and then you know, you go
Speaker 3: to Voteviamerica and we can make sure you're connected with
Speaker 3: the right people so you can have something to do
Speaker 3: in someplace to donate. So I do think, I do
Speaker 3: think that is very helpful to have, like what races
Speaker 3: are the closest to kind of see it updating over time.
Speaker 2: It is emotional management for most people. They're going to
Speaker 2: live and die with several point drops in the forecast.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, don't do that because it's it's gonna be
Speaker 3: quite a polar coaster if you will. Yeah, Now until November,
Speaker 3: all right, last thing before we go. White House Press
Speaker 3: Secretary Caroline love It announced on Wednesday that she's leaving
Speaker 3: her post at the end of the month to quote
Speaker 3: embark on a new chapter and spend more time with
Speaker 3: her kids. She will of course be missed, and his
Speaker 3: former White House comm staffers. We thought it only fitting
Speaker 3: to say farewell with a tribute to some of her
Speaker 3: finest moments.
Speaker 2: He's become a star.
Speaker 3: It's that face, it's that brain, it's those lips, the
Speaker 3: whey they move, they move like she's a machine gun.
Speaker 4: Hatred has no place in the United States of America
Speaker 4: under President Donald Trump. The President's face wanted to add
Speaker 4: about a number of times with bandages on his hands,
Speaker 4: do thus explain.
Speaker 3: What that is about?
Speaker 4: The President is literally.
Speaker 5: Constantly shaking hands.
Speaker 4: Why was Renee Good unfortunately and tragically killed?
Speaker 2: Are you're asking me because a night shaped and doctor
Speaker 2: recously and kills its fire.
Speaker 4: Oh okay, so you're a biased reporter with a left
Speaker 4: wing opinion.
Speaker 2: What are you wanting to do?
Speaker 4: Yeah, because you're a left wing hacked The President have
Speaker 4: a feeling again based on fact that Iran was going
Speaker 4: to strike the United States, was going to strike our
Speaker 4: assets in the region. At this moment in time, of course,
Speaker 4: the ballroom is really the president's main priority. He believes
Speaker 4: that Canadians would benefit greatly from becoming the fifty first
Speaker 4: state of the United States of America. It's well past
Speaker 4: time that President Trump was awarded the Noble Peace Prize,
Speaker 4: because it.
Speaker 2: Was twenty eleven when Barack Obama and Seth Meyer said
Speaker 2: you'll never be president Bay Bob. Here we are with
Speaker 2: presidents from going on stage as a two term president
Speaker 2: for the first time.
Speaker 5: This piece tonight will be classic Donald J.
Speaker 2: Trump. It'll be funny, it'll be entertaining.
Speaker 4: There will be some shots fired tonight.
Speaker 3: Very you know, just North Korean propaganda through and through.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's dead, Bob, you will.
Speaker 3: I love the He does believe that Canadians will benefit
Speaker 3: from being the first fifty first state, said with the straight.
Speaker 2: Face, which was a thing that actually happened in the
Speaker 2: yak in politics.
Speaker 3: Well, kudos to her for saying that all with the
Speaker 3: straight face. As for who might replace Levitt at the podium,
Speaker 3: names are already being floated all across the Magamedia ecosystem.
Speaker 3: Lots of exciting possibilities and it's a wide open field.
Speaker 3: So each of us, without sharing with each other yet,
Speaker 3: has ranked our top five most likely picks. So why
Speaker 3: don't we we I think we should each go five
Speaker 3: five four four three three.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's what I was hoping for. Okay, they
Speaker 2: really kind of missed up the punch line of mine,
Speaker 2: But we'll do it this way.
Speaker 3: Okay, that's fine. You want to go for who's you?
Speaker 3: Who's your number five? Who's your number number five?
Speaker 2: Is Marco Rubi out? Yeah?
Speaker 3: That's funny. That's funny. I already saw some of the
Speaker 3: Rubio on the couch memes where he's got a blonde
Speaker 3: way gone. So yeah, yeah, interesting.
Speaker 2: I use this my number five.
Speaker 3: Erica Kirk.
Speaker 2: Now that is an interesting suggestion.
Speaker 3: You think it's crazy, but you're like, wait a minute,
Speaker 3: she's you know, she she does a lot of public speaking.
Speaker 3: Big f you know, big favorite of the maga world.
Speaker 3: Who knows number number four?
Speaker 2: So before I gave number four, I would like to
Speaker 2: just point out my thinking here, which is Donald Trump
Speaker 2: has had five pres secretaries. Can you name all five?
Speaker 3: Wow? Oh, because we have to go back to the
Speaker 3: first term. Huh yeah, Sean Spicer, Katie mcahoney yep. Oh uh,
Speaker 3: what's his name? Scaramuci number press secretary? He wasn't for
Speaker 3: fourteen days communication structure. Oh he didn't step in for
Speaker 3: the Oh yeah, some Brie, Sarah Hockey Sanders yep, Caroline.
Speaker 3: And so now I'm just one. I have one right
Speaker 3: that I'm missing.
Speaker 2: Stephanie Grisham.
Speaker 3: Oh, Stephanie Grisham, Yes, okay, okay.
Speaker 2: So five press secretaries, the last four have been women.
Speaker 1: M hmm.
Speaker 2: I don't think Doan Trump's gonna pick a man.
Speaker 3: I don't either, So my number four is although I
Speaker 3: have one, I have one man on my list.
Speaker 2: But I did too, obviously, But my number four is
Speaker 2: Anna Kelly, who's currently the Deputy Press Secretary.
Speaker 3: You know, I keep seeing that around, but it's like,
Speaker 3: I feel like he always wants to go for someone
Speaker 3: who has been on TV a bunch.
Speaker 2: He's also lazy, so yeah, that's true. Is a man
Speaker 2: so lazy wouldn't even pick a new national security advisor?
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's true.
Speaker 2: That would be the that's the lazy rot. I don't
Speaker 2: think it's obviously what I'm not what I think is
Speaker 2: most likely, but I think it's on the table.
Speaker 3: My number four is my favorite in yours Trisha McLoughlin.
Speaker 2: Oh god, that's that's definitely not happening. But that is
Speaker 2: a good suggestion for content purposes.
Speaker 3: You don't think it's I think, well, I did read
Speaker 3: somewhere that she might be pregnant, so that would be
Speaker 3: tricky at least if it's happening soon. I don't know
Speaker 3: how pregnant she is or what, but like, but I
Speaker 3: could see, I mean, she was clearly auditioning for White
Speaker 3: House Press Secretary her entire time at DHS and she
Speaker 3: has not taken a new job yet.
Speaker 2: Okay, look at it is on the table, all right,
Speaker 2: what's my number number three? Carry Lake?
Speaker 3: Yeah, Carrie Lake is it's a possibility.
Speaker 2: Trump loves her.
Speaker 3: Trump loves She's a loyalist, she is.
Speaker 2: She's crazy, she'll fight with the press, which is what
Speaker 2: he cares about most. She's very she's a former reporter.
Speaker 2: She's good on TV in a Trumpian way. She's good on.
Speaker 3: TV, right right, Yeah, I thought about her and I
Speaker 3: was like, she you know, Trump likes his spokespeople like young,
Speaker 3: like Fox News anchors.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's this would be the thing that yeah.
Speaker 3: Well then my number three, same thing that is a
Speaker 3: departure from this, which is Scott Jennings.
Speaker 2: Interesting. See I was thought about scot Chennkings, and then
Speaker 2: I went with my whole man thing, and then I
Speaker 2: had to do a very cheesy and funny rubeo joke.
Speaker 3: I would not put the money on Scott Jennings, but
Speaker 3: I put them on my list because.
Speaker 2: Because we are emitting all of these on Calshi right, yes, of.
Speaker 3: Course, yes, obviously, as we do with everything.
Speaker 2: Okay, my number two, Katie Miller.
Speaker 3: So I was going to have Katie Miller on there.
Speaker 3: And then I of course did some research for this segment,
Speaker 3: and in one of the Politico stories about the search,
Speaker 3: a source close to Miller said, not happening, Absolutely not.
Speaker 2: It's exactly that's Miller's word.
Speaker 3: Yes, maybe what was she She has a wildly successful podcast.
Speaker 3: What was she going to be?
Speaker 2: Just do the podcast in the briefing room.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's probably probably good.
Speaker 2: She likes attention. She's very combative.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Shewett, Yeah, I could see it. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I have isn't my number two? No? One just doesn't
Speaker 3: fill the role, continues to have a bunch of dipshits
Speaker 3: jump into the briefing room once in a while and says,
Speaker 3: fuck it, I don't even want the press. I don't
Speaker 3: I want to deal with that. I'm he's the press secretary. Yeah.
Speaker 2: I thought about putting that on my list too, and
Speaker 2: then I thought that was maybe like a little a
Speaker 2: little too trying too hard for a viral cliff.
Speaker 3: If you will what that that?
Speaker 2: No wonder if I said Trump, if I I number
Speaker 2: one choices Donald Trump, that seems like a bit much. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I know that is I think he really cares about
Speaker 2: the briefing.
Speaker 3: M I to watch something.
Speaker 2: Watch what there? It is a lull in the Fox
Speaker 2: schedule during the day. I think I think he does
Speaker 2: not watch Will Kine. So usually he the briefing is
Speaker 2: during Willcane and so that solves that problem for him.
Speaker 3: Will Caine too dumb. Yeah, all right, number one, number one.
Speaker 2: This is a totally out of left field. It's a
Speaker 2: crazy choice. Rachel Campos Duffy.
Speaker 3: She's on Calshi. But she she she started it like
Speaker 3: forty Like I don't know how they've got there. It
Speaker 3: was I think it's like forty percent or something, and
Speaker 3: then she's like fallen down to less than one percent.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'm not sure the people who are
Speaker 2: betting cash what we have to watch for us if
Speaker 2: all of a sudden there is a surge behind one person. Yeah,
Speaker 2: but that's what I think you could trust. Couty. She's
Speaker 2: a Fox News anchor. She is very she's a reality
Speaker 2: TV star. She's in the family. Yeah loyal. Trumpet likes
Speaker 2: her a lot. He talks about her a lot. Back
Speaker 2: when before Seohn Duffy was in the cabin that he
Speaker 2: used to tweet in truth about her all the time.
Speaker 3: Oh, I could see what she was on a splash. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I should have had I should have kept her on
Speaker 3: my list. I have Alena Habba, that's yeah. And I
Speaker 3: knew that she is the favorite right now.
Speaker 2: I knew in my soul you're gonna pick Alena Habber first,
Speaker 2: and so for content purposes, I took Alena Habba off
Speaker 2: my list.
Speaker 3: I know, I almost didn't want her first because I
Speaker 3: was like, I think it's it's it's more it's boring
Speaker 3: as the selection. But I actually think if we're just
Speaker 3: doing most likely I would put money on that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so you were trying you were taking this as
Speaker 2: a serious game.
Speaker 3: Yeah of course, yeah, okay, just like I did. I
Speaker 3: was termally online, you know.
Speaker 2: I was doing this for totally content purposes, of course.
Speaker 3: Of course, of course. Well good luck to everyone on
Speaker 3: our lists, and hopefully it was good to do some
Speaker 3: outside the box ones that are not on CALSHI, like
Speaker 3: Eric Kirk and Trisha mcglofflin, because maybe if we say them,
Speaker 3: you know, the maga the maga verse listens to us,
Speaker 3: so we just if we put it out there, maybe
Speaker 3: we can build some buzz behind these.
Speaker 2: If you are listening to Potaninmarica, and then you think
Speaker 2: that we said something about who Trump might hire us
Speaker 2: his press secretary, and then you went and put money
Speaker 2: on that get help.
Speaker 3: Well, that might describe Elijah.
Speaker 2: Bobby, he's so far behind help.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I can hear us still laughing. All right, Dan, Well,
Speaker 3: that's our show for today. Tommy will be back on
Speaker 3: the feet on Sunday with a conversation with tech journalist
Speaker 3: Casey Newton about the terrifying AI moment we're in exciting
Speaker 3: and what we can do about it. Casey's awesome, That's
Speaker 3: gonna be a great conversation. And then and then John
Speaker 3: and Tommy and I will be back with a new
Speaker 3: episode on Tuesday. Have a good weekend, everyone, By everyone.
Speaker 3: Pozive America is a Crooked Media production. Our show is
Speaker 3: produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Ruben, McKenna Roberts, and Faris Safari,
Speaker 3: with Ree Jerlin, Elijah Cone and Adrian Hill. Our team
Speaker 3: includes Matt de Groat, Ben Hefcote, Jordan Cantor, Charlotte Landiskrol
Speaker 3: pel Avive, David Toles, Mia Kelman, Ryan Young, and Naomi Single.
Speaker 3: Our staff is probably unionized with the writers Guild of
Speaker 3: America East