WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 2>Don't forget there's no safe bike.

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<v Speaker 3>Simply Safe. Welcome to Plot Save America. I'm Jon Favreau,

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<v Speaker 3>I'm Dan Pfeiffer. On today's show, Donald Trump catches a

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<v Speaker 3>ride on a catering truck to escape the Iranians who

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<v Speaker 3>are trying to kill him and or cause him to

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<v Speaker 3>lose the midterms, which ever comes first. We'll also talk

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<v Speaker 3>about how your tax dollars are being used to buy

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<v Speaker 3>brand new gloves for ice agents that can deliver an

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<v Speaker 3>electric shock to anyone they touch. That is true. Also

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<v Speaker 3>a wild story about DHS spying on everyone from labor

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<v Speaker 3>union and climate groups to random citizens just because they can. Then,

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<v Speaker 3>with the last of the major contested primaries behind us

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<v Speaker 3>in Wisconsin and Minnesota, we'll talk about why the polling

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<v Speaker 3>was so far off and why that won't stop us

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<v Speaker 3>from speculating about November. Finally, we'll bid a fond farewell

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<v Speaker 3>to White House pre Secretary Caroline Levitt and compare our

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<v Speaker 3>rankings of who we think is most likely to get

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<v Speaker 3>the job next. Can't wait to hear your.

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<v Speaker 2>List, Dan, it's really outside the box.

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<v Speaker 3>I like that. I like that. One quick note before

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<v Speaker 3>we start, Friends of the Pod Tickets for this year's

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<v Speaker 3>Crookeet Con are going fast. They're going even faster than

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<v Speaker 3>last time I said they were going fast.

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<v Speaker 2>Just by the time you hear this, they could be gone.

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<v Speaker 3>You're going to want to go to cricketcon dot com

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<v Speaker 3>to grab yours if you haven't already, and of course,

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<v Speaker 3>if you're not yet a subscriber discounted Cricket Con tickets.

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<v Speaker 3>That's just one of many reasons to become a subscriber.

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<v Speaker 3>You'll also get ad free episodes of all your favorite

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<v Speaker 3>Crooked shows, plus subscriber only shows like Coaster with Dan Pfeiffer.

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<v Speaker 2>That's the main reason to do it, That is the

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<v Speaker 2>main for many people.

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<v Speaker 3>We also have a secret episode of Podsave America, an

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<v Speaker 3>extra episode that we do behind the paywall, so you

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<v Speaker 3>can you can check that out as well terminally online.

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<v Speaker 3>Very funny and UH and all of our great substack newsletters.

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<v Speaker 3>And you get to be supporting UH proudly pro democracy

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<v Speaker 3>independent media. So what are you waiting for? Head to

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<v Speaker 3>Crooked dot com slash friends to join today? All right,

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<v Speaker 3>they're starting to use the Q word to describe Trump's

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<v Speaker 3>disastrous war in Iran. You know what the Q word is, Dan.

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<v Speaker 2>There are all kinds of jokes I was going to make,

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<v Speaker 2>but none of them seem to work. So I'm just

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<v Speaker 2>going to go with the right answer. Is it quagmire?

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<v Speaker 3>It is. That's the headline and one of the most

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<v Speaker 3>read Politico stories of the week. The Iran war is

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<v Speaker 3>a whole new level of quagmire for the US. Both

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<v Speaker 3>Trump and the Iranians are claiming that they're in control

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<v Speaker 3>of the Strait of Horror moves, which can't be true,

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<v Speaker 3>and the strait remains functionally closed. I think only fourteen

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<v Speaker 3>vessels went through yesterday. Gas prices are higher than they

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<v Speaker 3>have ever been at this time of year in the

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<v Speaker 3>United States ever in history. The war also continues to

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<v Speaker 3>deplete our military. The Washington Post reports that we've lost

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<v Speaker 3>about a quarter of our supply of Reaper drones, we're

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<v Speaker 3>using up our limited supplies of both Patriot and Tomahawk missiles,

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<v Speaker 3>and some of our service members have been deployed so

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<v Speaker 3>long that on the USS Abraham Lincoln, which is an

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<v Speaker 3>aircraft carrier that's been in the Middle East since November,

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<v Speaker 3>several of the five thousand sailors and marines on board

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<v Speaker 3>have tried to jump overboard due to the stress and

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<v Speaker 3>horrible conditions. That's according to both the Military Times and

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<v Speaker 3>Stars and Stripes. But nothing better illustrates just how badly

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<v Speaker 3>Trump is getting his ass kicked by the Iranians than

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<v Speaker 3>the story of how our president was forced to hide

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<v Speaker 3>in a catering truck and board a secret plane to

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<v Speaker 3>escape at tent assassination threat involving Iranian proxies in Turkey

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<v Speaker 3>launching surface to air missiles at Air Force One. When

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<v Speaker 3>Trump was asked why it was too dangerous for him

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<v Speaker 3>to fly on Air Force One but not any of

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<v Speaker 3>the reporters and White House officials who weren't told they

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<v Speaker 3>were flying home on a potential target, the President said,

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<v Speaker 3>the dumbest thing possible, I.

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<v Speaker 2>Think actually the plane that I flew on was at

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<v Speaker 2>greater risk.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it was because that would be the plane.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that way that they would be more likely

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<v Speaker 3>to go for it. Fucking idiot. Yeah yeah, yeah, they'd

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<v Speaker 3>be more likely to go for the plane you were on,

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<v Speaker 3>of course, which is why they tried to put you

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<v Speaker 3>on another plane that they didn't know about. You, fucking moron. Yes,

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<v Speaker 3>I don't know why I say that in such a

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<v Speaker 3>shocked way, but like that is it's just like new

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<v Speaker 3>levels of Trump being a dipshit. Yeah, what did you

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<v Speaker 3>make of the whole the catering KRT caper? Uh?

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<v Speaker 2>On one hand, it is very very funny that he

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<v Speaker 2>hid in a cavering cart, that he flew home on

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<v Speaker 2>a secret plane, that he hand picked the people who

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<v Speaker 2>would survive with him, like Pete Haigseth and the woman

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<v Speaker 2>who prints all of his documents.

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<v Speaker 3>But he sent Dance Marbino is former caddy.

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<v Speaker 2>And Daniz Scavito. But he's then he sent Marco Rubio

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<v Speaker 2>to die with the press.

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<v Speaker 3>And Marco Rubio was the only one on that other

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<v Speaker 3>plane who knew what was happening. Scott Bessett was with

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<v Speaker 3>Marco Rubio, none the wiser.

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<v Speaker 2>And it's there's no protocol here for the reasons like

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<v Speaker 2>maybe hag Seth, you could possibly fabricate some reason. But

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<v Speaker 2>the fact that he picked Dan Scavino and Natalie Harp

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<v Speaker 2>the once again the woman who follows him around and

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<v Speaker 2>prints his documents for him, were the ones who got

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<v Speaker 2>seats in the life raft and Marco Rubio didn't. It

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<v Speaker 2>should be a real tell to Marco Rubio. Also, how

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<v Speaker 2>do you eve impress this information? You get luked in

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<v Speaker 2>and you're like, which way to Trump's plane? They're like,

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<v Speaker 2>you didn't make the cut?

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, well, or what were they? What did they

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<v Speaker 3>Where did they think Trump was?

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<v Speaker 2>I mean they just assumed he was in his cabin

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<v Speaker 2>I assume.

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<v Speaker 3>Oh yeah, I mean I know that's what the reporters thought.

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<v Speaker 3>But I was wondering about the like Scott Bison just

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<v Speaker 3>sitting there, has no idea with his buddy, Mark Rubio

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<v Speaker 3>has no idea. He's just a sitting duck for me.

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<v Speaker 2>Normally you would see the president walk up well, I

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<v Speaker 2>guess they saw him walk up the steps. And there

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<v Speaker 2>are plenty of times we've been on the plane when

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<v Speaker 2>we used to fly on it where the president would

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<v Speaker 2>just be in their cabin and we would be seated

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<v Speaker 2>where we would sit, which is not in his cabin.

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<v Speaker 2>You would have no idea until the plane landed and

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<v Speaker 2>he did not walk down the front steps.

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<v Speaker 3>Who do you think was making it in the secret

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<v Speaker 3>plane with Barack Obama? Definitely wasn't me.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know.

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<v Speaker 3>It might have been you quick, I need a speech.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, how's that? We would have done it by actual

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<v Speaker 2>protocol and not by who he likes most. There is

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<v Speaker 2>like a more serious thing to this, which is.

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<v Speaker 3>That the Iranian proxies in Turkey were potentially going to

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<v Speaker 3>take down Air Force One. Yeah, that's a well I mean.

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<v Speaker 2>That, yes, that that, But there's something like this probably

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<v Speaker 2>sounds really quaint in like the dystopian, fucked up world

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<v Speaker 2>we live in, But there is just something terrible about

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<v Speaker 2>the fact that the president lied to the press, lied

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<v Speaker 2>to the country to hide a threat to himself. No

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<v Speaker 2>one knew where he was. He could have that plane

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<v Speaker 2>could have landed anywhere in the world and no one

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<v Speaker 2>would have ever known. And the only reason we know

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<v Speaker 2>about this now is because the Washington Post did some

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<v Speaker 2>really great reporting, Like, there is a world where obviously

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<v Speaker 2>his security, the president security, whether trumpettying else comes first,

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<v Speaker 2>so you could I understand the ruse. I don't really

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<v Speaker 2>understand why you would take Air Force one off, you

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<v Speaker 2>would just fly the other plane that they don't think he's.

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<v Speaker 3>On, right, It definitely seemed like there was a need

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<v Speaker 3>to protect Trump, even if it was now we should

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<v Speaker 3>say too. Since this story was first reported, there's been

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<v Speaker 3>more reporting that suggests that this intel about a potential

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<v Speaker 3>assassination plot came from Israel, from the Israeli government, and

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<v Speaker 3>then the CIA. Our CIA judged it as low confidence,

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<v Speaker 3>meaning they didn't think it was They didn't think it

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<v Speaker 3>was like a serious, serious threat, but clearly they thought

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<v Speaker 3>it was serious enough to put the president in a

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<v Speaker 3>catering cart and send him on a separate plane.

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<v Speaker 2>It's not probably not surprising that Israel's one who told

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<v Speaker 2>this to Trump, because if you read Regime Change, the

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<v Speaker 2>Maggie Haram of Jonathan Swan book, like one of the

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<v Speaker 2>themes in there, and Maggie talks about this interview with

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<v Speaker 2>Ezra Klein a few weeks ago, is that Trump is

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<v Speaker 2>securely obsessed with the idea that Ron wants to kill him,

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<v Speaker 2>and so you tell Trump Aron wants to kill you

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<v Speaker 2>at the same time, you're trying to keep Trump fully

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<v Speaker 2>focused on the war in Iran.

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<v Speaker 3>It's not a bad idea, right because that, Yeah, Bibi

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<v Speaker 3>did not want him to reach any kind of peace agreement, clearly,

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<v Speaker 3>So yeah, I thought it was. I thought it was.

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<v Speaker 3>So it's wild to me that, like it's one thing

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<v Speaker 3>to protect the president, it's another thing to unnecessarily put

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<v Speaker 3>the rest of the people on Air Force one in danger.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, you just hold there for us one on the ground.

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<v Speaker 2>You take the president, let him fly on this other plane.

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<v Speaker 2>No one knows what is right, and then after he lands,

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<v Speaker 2>you say Trump has landed, the Iranians know he's on

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<v Speaker 2>the plane. Then you fly the other plane.

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<v Speaker 3>Home, right, and we're not in the CIA. We're not

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<v Speaker 3>in secret service to the CIA. You know, we could

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<v Speaker 3>figure that out.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's I mean, it's it's crazy. It's also crazy

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<v Speaker 2>they didn'tell anyone afterwards. Like that's also no, that's the well, yes,

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<v Speaker 2>thank you. That is the biggest problem. Like you could

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<v Speaker 2>do this whole thing and then once everyone lands be like, oh,

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<v Speaker 2>by the way, this happened and we couldn't tell you

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<v Speaker 2>at the time or whatever whatever, But like that is

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<v Speaker 2>it's wild that it had to be broken by the

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<v Speaker 2>Washington Post and that the administration subpoened New York Times

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<v Speaker 2>reporters for the leak about them not taking the new

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<v Speaker 2>Katari Force one home because it didn't have like the

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<v Speaker 2>right defensive maneuver capabilities that they might need if if

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<v Speaker 2>proxi's on the ground were eating surfaced air missiles at

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<v Speaker 2>Air Force one Like this is entirely a hypothetical. You

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<v Speaker 2>just want to point this out there. But in a

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<v Speaker 2>world in which oh is right, In a world in

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<v Speaker 2>which the president can get on a secret plane without

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<v Speaker 2>the press and have no one know where he is,

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<v Speaker 2>that plane can land anywhere. It could land on Epstein

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<v Speaker 2>Island theoretically, Oh.

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<v Speaker 3>My god, you're really looking for a viral clip, aren't you.

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<v Speaker 2>I did not want a viral clip. I did not

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<v Speaker 2>want this posted. I did not tell the social body

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<v Speaker 2>I want this posted. I'm making a point just to

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<v Speaker 2>our listeners, the people who tune into this podcast, that

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<v Speaker 2>I'm just using the extreme example to make a point

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<v Speaker 2>that if when the press is not with the president,

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<v Speaker 2>the president can do lots of things we don't know

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<v Speaker 2>what are. He could have stopped in the UAE and

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<v Speaker 2>cut a crypto deal.

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<v Speaker 3>He could have He could have stopped in Moscow to

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<v Speaker 3>hang out with his friend Vladimir.

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<v Speaker 2>Pele could he could have picked up the P tape.

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<v Speaker 3>He could have picked up the P tape.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, Yeah, all these things were possible protocol.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, Well, bigger picture, there's new reporting this week that

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<v Speaker 3>around is tracking Trump's political problems very closely. I guess

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<v Speaker 3>they're just they're looking at the looking at the RCP

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<v Speaker 3>average to the silver bullets and Trump apprual rating, and

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<v Speaker 3>they're looking to continue pushing negotiations far off past November

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<v Speaker 3>so that the so that Trump pays a maximum price

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<v Speaker 3>in the midterms seems like a if we're just going

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<v Speaker 3>by political strategy, it does seem like a smart strategy

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<v Speaker 3>on Iran's behalf.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, on Ourn's part, Yeah, I mean, there's no question

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<v Speaker 2>that they are correct to understand that Trump has very

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<v Speaker 2>very little leverage during election season because the things that

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<v Speaker 2>would allow the sort of military maneuvers that would allow

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<v Speaker 2>him to gain an upper hand over the straight over

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<v Speaker 2>Iran would raise gas prices in a way which would

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<v Speaker 2>hurt his party in the midterms. So that they figured

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<v Speaker 2>that out. Now, I think the question for Iran is

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<v Speaker 2>what happens when Trump does and know what Trump cares

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<v Speaker 2>about has to face the voters for two years. Like,

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<v Speaker 2>if you're counting on Democrats to pass a War Powers

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<v Speaker 2>resolution to stop the war, I don't think they're getting

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<v Speaker 2>to a vet a proof majority of that.

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<v Speaker 3>No.

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<v Speaker 2>Could a democratic Congress make it harder to fund the war? Possibly,

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<v Speaker 2>but this idea. But Trump may feel this is bad.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm honistic believe this is bad.

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<v Speaker 3>But it's not.

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<v Speaker 2>Clear to me that Trump. Well it's not clear to me,

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<v Speaker 2>and maybe it probably shouldn't be clear the Rdians what

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<v Speaker 2>Trump does after the midterms.

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<v Speaker 3>Well after let's talk about what's after the midterms. It

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<v Speaker 3>is the beginning of the twenty twenty eight presidential race,

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<v Speaker 3>and you've got presumably jd. Vance who wants to be president,

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<v Speaker 3>maybe Mark or Rubio, maybe both of them together. And

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<v Speaker 3>so there is an incentive at that point for the

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<v Speaker 3>administration to finally give Iranians what they want, to get

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<v Speaker 3>this off the table so that they don't win the

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<v Speaker 3>war or win Well, how are they going to do that?

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, that's ultimately what Iran is trying to forestall

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<v Speaker 3>right now is more true? Like not that I think

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<v Speaker 3>any of these things are going to happen per se.

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<v Speaker 3>But like Trump taking carg Island, for instance, one of

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<v Speaker 3>the things that was on the table earlier doesn't happen

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<v Speaker 3>the midterms. Could that happen in twenty twenty seven? Maybe

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<v Speaker 3>Trump launching all the other bombing. Yeah, like those sorts

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<v Speaker 3>of things like the right now, Trump won't use the

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<v Speaker 3>military stick against Iran to the extent he has the

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<v Speaker 3>capacity to do so. Because of gas Price's election in

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<v Speaker 3>the calendar year of twenty twenty seven, he is relieved

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<v Speaker 3>of that political the restraining nature of politics potentially. So

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<v Speaker 3>I don't The thing is, I don't know when Iran

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<v Speaker 3>doesn't know either, said like this works in the short term,

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<v Speaker 3>what happens in the medium and long term, who the

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<v Speaker 3>hell knows. Yeah, horrible story though about the Jesus Christ

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<v Speaker 3>to USS Lincoln and all those soldiers, and you know,

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<v Speaker 3>the families have been described being like moldy showers and

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<v Speaker 3>broken toilets and shortages of hot water and food. They've

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<v Speaker 3>been trying to like figure this out. These the sailors

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<v Speaker 3>and marines have been sending messages like just to and

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<v Speaker 3>then of course someone asked Phigxeth today about it, and

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<v Speaker 3>he's like, Oh, it's all overblown, overblown. I respect all

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<v Speaker 3>these guys. They're great, they're doing a great job. It

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<v Speaker 3>always always makes me feel bad that we talk about

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<v Speaker 3>the war purely in terms of gas prices and oil

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<v Speaker 3>prices because of the effect that it's having on politics here.

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<v Speaker 3>But it's also like there's a lot of fucking US

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<v Speaker 3>forces deployed in the Middle East who are in harm's

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<v Speaker 3>way and who are also just have been away from

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<v Speaker 3>their families forever and for what, for what?

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<v Speaker 2>And the military did not prepare for this. Hence the

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<v Speaker 2>conditions on the ships. Yeah, because they know they'd never believe,

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<v Speaker 2>because they gave this zero thought that many many months later,

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<v Speaker 2>they'd still be in a conflict with Iran.

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<v Speaker 3>Missile stockpile estimates are that it won't recover until twenty thirty.

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<v Speaker 3>That's a whole other thing, Like God forbid someone else

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<v Speaker 3>at taxes. There's another war, Like we're not going to

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<v Speaker 3>be ready at all because we have now depleted all

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<v Speaker 3>of our military. We've sent soldiers for long, long deploy deployments.

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<v Speaker 3>We don't have missiles and drones and all that kind

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<v Speaker 3>of all those capabilities because of this stupid fucking war.

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<v Speaker 3>It is it Like I kind of think that this

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<v Speaker 3>is what do you think about like Democrats, like how

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<v Speaker 3>they handle this over the next couple of months between

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<v Speaker 3>now and the midterms, because to me, it seems like

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<v Speaker 3>it is the main issue and it's not your use.

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<v Speaker 3>It's like it combines both forever wars, which people hate,

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<v Speaker 3>and it's causing high prices, which people hate. So it's

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<v Speaker 3>like I feel like the whole you could run the

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<v Speaker 3>whole campaign about Trump's disastrous war and what it's doing

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<v Speaker 3>to prices and all that.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it should be the centerpiece of the campaign. It's

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<v Speaker 2>obviously it's best when tied to affordability, right, gas prices

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<v Speaker 2>and that. You know, like one of the messages tested

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<v Speaker 2>is the you know, they told us there wasn't enough

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<v Speaker 2>money for health care and food assistants, but now we

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<v Speaker 2>have money. We have billions of dollars for bombs in

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<v Speaker 2>the Middle East and for wars abilities like that tests

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<v Speaker 2>very well, it is, you know, so I think absolutely

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<v Speaker 2>hammer Democrats should have no fear. There's a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>sort of anxiety at the outset of this that what

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<v Speaker 2>if we get on the wrong side of the conflict.

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<v Speaker 2>And you know, we and we must begin every statement

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<v Speaker 2>with a long throat clearing about how bad the Mullas

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<v Speaker 2>and around are like. We don't like we were past

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<v Speaker 2>that this is an incredibly unpopular war. It goes at affordability,

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<v Speaker 2>It goes at Trump's incompetence, it goes at Trump's weakness,

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<v Speaker 2>it goes to the chaos of his leadership style, and

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<v Speaker 2>I think, really importantly, it goes to the broken promises.

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<v Speaker 2>And when you see this in both focus groups and

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<v Speaker 2>then in polling of people who regret who voted for

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<v Speaker 2>Trump who were now disapprove of him, one of the

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<v Speaker 2>top things that comes up is that he broke his promises.

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<v Speaker 2>And one of those big promises is the war, which

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<v Speaker 2>is tied to the other big promise, which is lowering prices.

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<v Speaker 3>Right. Today's show is sponsored by Strawberry dot me. Have

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<v Speaker 3>by Sundays. Is your dog a picky eater? It's surprisingly stressful.

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<v Speaker 3>You wish they could tell you the problem.

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<v Speaker 1>Maybe if they could, your dog would say they know

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, they love that.

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<v Speaker 3>They love that carb food? Is that car?

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<v Speaker 2>Is that invasive carp? Is this carp that was jumping

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's hard to tell.

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<v Speaker 3>But she ate it. She's a dog. Leo loves it.

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<v Speaker 1>Leo loves Sundays for Dogs, beats.

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<v Speaker 3>Speaking of unpopular, we haven't checked in on ICE in

412
00:20:43.680 --> 00:20:46.200
<v Speaker 3>a while, and it won't shock you to hear that

413
00:20:46.240 --> 00:20:48.640
<v Speaker 3>the news is really bad. Here's what will shock you.

414
00:20:49.039 --> 00:20:50.480
<v Speaker 3>Apologize for that.

415
00:20:50.480 --> 00:20:54.720
<v Speaker 2>That's just the well, do the joke and then apologize.

416
00:20:55.079 --> 00:20:58.279
<v Speaker 3>The new electric gloves ICE plans to spend twenty million

417
00:20:58.359 --> 00:21:01.799
<v Speaker 3>dollars on so that agents and deliver a painful jolt

418
00:21:02.079 --> 00:21:05.000
<v Speaker 3>to whoever they touch, rendering the person powerless to move

419
00:21:05.440 --> 00:21:10.039
<v Speaker 3>or even stand. Uh. And now Tom Homan, you know

420
00:21:10.119 --> 00:21:12.839
<v Speaker 3>he was on Fox talking about this is uh, this

421
00:21:12.960 --> 00:21:14.759
<v Speaker 3>is uh, this is you know, we don't want to

422
00:21:14.759 --> 00:21:17.079
<v Speaker 3>shoot everyone now, so we're trying this is supposed to

423
00:21:17.119 --> 00:21:20.279
<v Speaker 3>be de escalation. This is a de escalation, right. Here's

424
00:21:20.319 --> 00:21:23.960
<v Speaker 3>a compilation of the gloves being put to use from

425
00:21:24.039 --> 00:21:30.079
<v Speaker 3>some of the videos that were circulating on Twittered, like

426
00:21:30.079 --> 00:21:32.279
<v Speaker 3>a little girl and pee myself, go back with your glove,

427
00:21:34.160 --> 00:21:36.680
<v Speaker 3>hid your hand, your hands, we're trying to get his

428
00:21:36.759 --> 00:21:46.400
<v Speaker 3>hands out. Fucking insane.

429
00:21:46.960 --> 00:21:50.640
<v Speaker 2>A bunch of a bunch of men to shocking each

430
00:21:50.680 --> 00:21:51.039
<v Speaker 2>other for.

431
00:21:51.039 --> 00:21:54.119
<v Speaker 3>Fun, I know, yeah that right, Yeah, there's a whole

432
00:21:54.119 --> 00:21:59.200
<v Speaker 3>separate conversation. The manual this this that this company that

433
00:21:59.279 --> 00:22:01.319
<v Speaker 3>makes the product that they put out. The manual says

434
00:22:01.359 --> 00:22:04.240
<v Speaker 3>no more than two gloves on one person, generally, no

435
00:22:04.319 --> 00:22:08.319
<v Speaker 3>more than fifteen seconds, never against verbal defiance, never as punishment,

436
00:22:08.960 --> 00:22:11.559
<v Speaker 3>and not on the elderly, children, pregnant women, or people

437
00:22:11.599 --> 00:22:14.920
<v Speaker 3>with serious disabilities. Guess what Ice has done already, like

438
00:22:15.119 --> 00:22:18.599
<v Speaker 3>violated all of those things with how it has handled

439
00:22:18.640 --> 00:22:25.640
<v Speaker 3>people before the gloves and the people that it has assaulted, injured, detained,

440
00:22:25.920 --> 00:22:29.960
<v Speaker 3>and so I don't know, I think this is fucking awful.

441
00:22:30.359 --> 00:22:34.000
<v Speaker 2>Well, I mean, it's just so ridiculous that Tom Homan's

442
00:22:34.319 --> 00:22:36.000
<v Speaker 2>he like, it's a binary choice. Well, look, we have

443
00:22:36.000 --> 00:22:38.319
<v Speaker 2>only two options. We can kill them in the street

444
00:22:38.359 --> 00:22:42.920
<v Speaker 2>with our guns, or we can electrocute them. Those only

445
00:22:42.960 --> 00:22:46.640
<v Speaker 2>two things, guys, you pick, you choose electrocution or bullets.

446
00:22:47.079 --> 00:22:51.160
<v Speaker 3>Also, this is one that leaves not a lot of evidence.

447
00:22:51.720 --> 00:22:54.440
<v Speaker 3>And so the idea that ICE is just going to

448
00:22:54.440 --> 00:22:57.039
<v Speaker 3>be roaming the streets and if they see someone who

449
00:22:57.119 --> 00:22:59.880
<v Speaker 3>they don't like what they said, they you know, sort

450
00:22:59.880 --> 00:23:02.799
<v Speaker 3>of made fun of Ice or criticize them whatever, they

451
00:23:02.799 --> 00:23:04.680
<v Speaker 3>can just walk over and just put hands on them

452
00:23:04.759 --> 00:23:07.480
<v Speaker 3>and shot them and then like, no one's gonna know,

453
00:23:07.880 --> 00:23:11.039
<v Speaker 3>I mean, like whose word against who's. It's just it's

454
00:23:11.240 --> 00:23:14.920
<v Speaker 3>the potential for abuse on this one is vast.

455
00:23:15.480 --> 00:23:19.279
<v Speaker 2>Yes, that is very, very true. And as Elijah pointed

456
00:23:19.319 --> 00:23:21.519
<v Speaker 2>out a production meeting today, it's only a matter of

457
00:23:21.519 --> 00:23:23.799
<v Speaker 2>time till one of these ICE guys goes pee with

458
00:23:23.839 --> 00:23:24.440
<v Speaker 2>the gloves on.

459
00:23:28.000 --> 00:23:30.839
<v Speaker 3>In this administration, that will almost certainly happen.

460
00:23:31.240 --> 00:23:32.480
<v Speaker 2>Yes, it's wearing.

461
00:23:33.000 --> 00:23:34.799
<v Speaker 3>And also with the kind of people they're recruiting now

462
00:23:34.839 --> 00:23:40.200
<v Speaker 3>with ICE, yes, is people who meet no standards whatsoever. Meanwhile,

463
00:23:40.240 --> 00:23:43.200
<v Speaker 3>there's been a new uptick in terrifying videos of people

464
00:23:43.200 --> 00:23:45.839
<v Speaker 3>being confronted by ICE agents. On Monday, a massed agent

465
00:23:45.880 --> 00:23:49.359
<v Speaker 3>pointed a gun at a US citizen named Carolina Molina

466
00:23:49.599 --> 00:23:52.799
<v Speaker 3>at a shopping center in Virginia. ICE in DHS accused

467
00:23:52.799 --> 00:23:54.519
<v Speaker 3>her of trying to run them over with her car,

468
00:23:54.640 --> 00:23:58.920
<v Speaker 3>an assertion that's not all backed up by the video evidence. Afterwards,

469
00:23:58.920 --> 00:24:01.119
<v Speaker 3>Molina told The Washington Is that it felt like a

470
00:24:01.200 --> 00:24:03.920
<v Speaker 3>renee good situation. Here's some of that scene, as well

471
00:24:03.960 --> 00:24:09.240
<v Speaker 3>as other recent ICE confrontations that are making the rounds

472
00:24:09.440 --> 00:24:13.160
<v Speaker 3>almost over. Stop, full of stop, you are full of ship.

473
00:24:14.240 --> 00:24:16.000
<v Speaker 3>You're not funny. You're not funny.

474
00:24:16.079 --> 00:24:16.880
<v Speaker 2>I will arrest you.

475
00:24:17.000 --> 00:24:17.440
<v Speaker 3>Keep it up.

476
00:24:19.000 --> 00:24:22.920
<v Speaker 4>I don't know.

477
00:24:26.720 --> 00:24:30.079
<v Speaker 5>The Domingo family self recording the tense moments when border

478
00:24:30.119 --> 00:24:34.119
<v Speaker 5>patrol pulled them over Sunday afternoons, the couple complying with

479
00:24:34.160 --> 00:24:38.240
<v Speaker 5>the officers orders, then hugging during this emotional goodbye when

480
00:24:38.319 --> 00:24:41.000
<v Speaker 5>separated from their five children and detained.

481
00:24:41.440 --> 00:24:44.359
<v Speaker 3>I know, there's like not a lot of new things

482
00:24:44.359 --> 00:24:47.279
<v Speaker 3>to say about this because it's just horrific, But I

483
00:24:47.279 --> 00:24:51.240
<v Speaker 3>think it is worth noting that it is still happening.

484
00:24:51.480 --> 00:24:55.880
<v Speaker 3>It is happening all over the place. ICE has not

485
00:24:56.119 --> 00:25:00.319
<v Speaker 3>de escalated at all. They are still trying to uh

486
00:25:00.720 --> 00:25:04.839
<v Speaker 3>meet Steven Miller's dumb fucking quotas. Mark Waynemullen, the new

487
00:25:04.880 --> 00:25:10.079
<v Speaker 3>DHS secretary, is already in trouble with like MAGA activists

488
00:25:10.119 --> 00:25:12.440
<v Speaker 3>and the bass. You know, Laura Lumer and Steve Bannon

489
00:25:12.440 --> 00:25:14.559
<v Speaker 3>already have said he should be fired because you know,

490
00:25:14.599 --> 00:25:17.680
<v Speaker 3>he's not detaining and arresting and deporting enough people. So

491
00:25:17.720 --> 00:25:20.680
<v Speaker 3>he's already feeling pressure to be even more aggressive in

492
00:25:20.799 --> 00:25:25.920
<v Speaker 3>order to keep his job. So this is all happening still, Yeah.

493
00:25:25.720 --> 00:25:27.480
<v Speaker 2>And it's just the only thing that has changed is

494
00:25:27.480 --> 00:25:29.880
<v Speaker 2>they're not sitting out a press release before they do it, right.

495
00:25:29.880 --> 00:25:32.279
<v Speaker 2>They're not inviting this, They're not inviting the MAGA influencers

496
00:25:32.319 --> 00:25:34.640
<v Speaker 2>along for it. They're not inviting the Fox News crews.

497
00:25:35.000 --> 00:25:37.079
<v Speaker 2>They're just doing it and hoping no one videotapes some

498
00:25:37.119 --> 00:25:37.799
<v Speaker 2>when it happens.

499
00:25:38.079 --> 00:25:40.640
<v Speaker 3>Did you see I heard I heard Tim Miller talk

500
00:25:40.680 --> 00:25:44.440
<v Speaker 3>about this in the Bulwark pod, the letter in the

501
00:25:44.559 --> 00:25:49.160
<v Speaker 3>Nation that this woman wrote. She is so this Iranian

502
00:25:49.200 --> 00:25:56.279
<v Speaker 3>family there have green cards, legal residents, a couple of professors. Yeah,

503
00:25:56.319 --> 00:25:59.000
<v Speaker 3>they're the husband and wife for professors, and uh and

504
00:25:59.039 --> 00:26:03.440
<v Speaker 3>then they have a child as well. And because the

505
00:26:03.960 --> 00:26:10.119
<v Speaker 3>husband is the son of a woman who was an

506
00:26:10.160 --> 00:26:12.720
<v Speaker 3>Iranian official during the hostage crisis. I believe she was

507
00:26:12.759 --> 00:26:17.079
<v Speaker 3>the spokesperson during the hostage crisis in nineteen seventy nine,

508
00:26:17.599 --> 00:26:22.599
<v Speaker 3>and her son and his family moved to the United States,

509
00:26:22.720 --> 00:26:27.240
<v Speaker 3>became college professors, had a kid, our permanent legal residents,

510
00:26:27.839 --> 00:26:32.720
<v Speaker 3>and because like people online decided to make an issue

511
00:26:32.759 --> 00:26:38.079
<v Speaker 3>of their association with Iran, then the state department just

512
00:26:38.119 --> 00:26:41.359
<v Speaker 3>decided to on their own revoke their visas. They picked

513
00:26:41.400 --> 00:26:44.519
<v Speaker 3>up the husband. They also picked up the wife and

514
00:26:44.799 --> 00:26:48.880
<v Speaker 3>the child, and they separated them and they have shipped

515
00:26:48.880 --> 00:26:52.079
<v Speaker 3>them to Texas where they've been in detention facilities for

516
00:26:52.400 --> 00:26:57.960
<v Speaker 3>the last four months, four months with like just just

517
00:26:58.079 --> 00:27:01.119
<v Speaker 3>holding them, holding the hostage for no reason, no due process,

518
00:27:01.440 --> 00:27:04.279
<v Speaker 3>not even deporting them, not doing anything, just jailing them

519
00:27:04.759 --> 00:27:07.960
<v Speaker 3>just because of an association of family member because some

520
00:27:08.240 --> 00:27:10.799
<v Speaker 3>fucking idiot online decided to call them out.

521
00:27:11.119 --> 00:27:14.160
<v Speaker 2>So it's just the whole thing is so just gross

522
00:27:14.160 --> 00:27:16.720
<v Speaker 2>and morally bankrupt.

523
00:27:15.599 --> 00:27:21.640
<v Speaker 3>I don't like I get that this won't be you know,

524
00:27:21.680 --> 00:27:24.519
<v Speaker 3>I think when Minnesota is happening, we probably thought maybe

525
00:27:24.519 --> 00:27:26.519
<v Speaker 3>this would be a big issue in the midterms. I'm

526
00:27:26.559 --> 00:27:28.839
<v Speaker 3>guessing it will not be as big of an issue

527
00:27:28.839 --> 00:27:32.960
<v Speaker 3>in the midterms, but is the best play here. The

528
00:27:33.039 --> 00:27:37.480
<v Speaker 3>Democrats have to just hope we get Congress back, be

529
00:27:37.559 --> 00:27:42.839
<v Speaker 3>able to conduct some kind of oversight over ice hold hearings,

530
00:27:43.200 --> 00:27:49.440
<v Speaker 3>subpoena officials and documents, and then just change everything if

531
00:27:49.440 --> 00:27:52.960
<v Speaker 3>a Democratic president wins, like it doesn't what else can

532
00:27:53.000 --> 00:27:53.880
<v Speaker 3>people do at this point?

533
00:27:54.119 --> 00:27:56.119
<v Speaker 2>So you're right that this is not going to be

534
00:27:56.160 --> 00:27:58.799
<v Speaker 2>the biggest issue in the midterms, and it probably shouldn't be.

535
00:27:59.000 --> 00:28:01.720
<v Speaker 2>The voters we need care about immigration. They absolutely do,

536
00:28:01.920 --> 00:28:06.079
<v Speaker 2>but it's not their top issue, but it's not as

537
00:28:06.119 --> 00:28:07.920
<v Speaker 2>complicated as I think a lot of people make it.

538
00:28:08.400 --> 00:28:11.680
<v Speaker 2>Trump is eleven points underwater on immigration right now. This

539
00:28:11.759 --> 00:28:13.640
<v Speaker 2>is it's not an issue of strength for him. He

540
00:28:13.640 --> 00:28:17.039
<v Speaker 2>doesn't win by shifting the issue terrain to immigration. It

541
00:28:17.079 --> 00:28:20.079
<v Speaker 2>doesn't help him. The videos like this hurt him when

542
00:28:20.119 --> 00:28:23.000
<v Speaker 2>you track his approval rating drops since twenty twenty five.

543
00:28:23.079 --> 00:28:26.839
<v Speaker 2>Some of the biggest ones happened during first the Kilmar

544
00:28:26.880 --> 00:28:30.319
<v Speaker 2>Abrigo Garcia Seacott stuff in the Springs twenty twenty five,

545
00:28:30.319 --> 00:28:33.480
<v Speaker 2>and then after the killings of Alex Preddi and Renee

546
00:28:33.480 --> 00:28:37.039
<v Speaker 2>Good in January of twenty twenty six. So it matters

547
00:28:37.119 --> 00:28:39.160
<v Speaker 2>when these things come up, So no one should shy

548
00:28:39.200 --> 00:28:41.720
<v Speaker 2>away from talking about it. Absolutely not. It's also worth

549
00:28:41.720 --> 00:28:44.640
<v Speaker 2>pointing out to voters that once again, not only as

550
00:28:44.680 --> 00:28:47.880
<v Speaker 2>ice bad, but we gave ice seven hundred billion dollars

551
00:28:47.920 --> 00:28:49.799
<v Speaker 2>and we paid for it by cutting health care and

552
00:28:49.799 --> 00:28:52.839
<v Speaker 2>food assistants. Like that's what the priority is. People don't

553
00:28:52.880 --> 00:28:55.559
<v Speaker 2>like that, but when we so let's say we get

554
00:28:55.599 --> 00:28:57.559
<v Speaker 2>to we get a majority, right, and we'll talk about

555
00:28:57.559 --> 00:28:59.920
<v Speaker 2>the prospects for that later in the show. People should

556
00:28:59.920 --> 00:29:04.559
<v Speaker 2>be realistic. We cannot we cannot realistically abolish ice, but

557
00:29:04.640 --> 00:29:07.960
<v Speaker 2>we can hold hearings. We can, you know, shine a

558
00:29:08.000 --> 00:29:10.480
<v Speaker 2>light on this. There can be accountability. We also have

559
00:29:10.920 --> 00:29:12.759
<v Speaker 2>if we have the House and the Senate. But even

560
00:29:12.799 --> 00:29:15.200
<v Speaker 2>if we have just the House, we have real leverage

561
00:29:15.200 --> 00:29:17.559
<v Speaker 2>and budget negotiations if Democrats are willing to use it.

562
00:29:17.799 --> 00:29:22.839
<v Speaker 3>So the one challenge on that one is because they

563
00:29:22.880 --> 00:29:27.440
<v Speaker 3>passed so much ICE funding through reconciliation, like they could

564
00:29:27.440 --> 00:29:30.039
<v Speaker 3>shut down the government. I mean we went through this right, Like, yeah,

565
00:29:30.039 --> 00:29:32.519
<v Speaker 3>the Democrats could theoretically like shut down the government if

566
00:29:32.519 --> 00:29:35.400
<v Speaker 3>we control Congress again, or hold up the whole budget

567
00:29:35.759 --> 00:29:38.480
<v Speaker 3>over ICE funding. But because they have so much funding

568
00:29:38.559 --> 00:29:41.759
<v Speaker 3>left over from reconciliation, like they can still do everything

569
00:29:41.799 --> 00:29:42.400
<v Speaker 3>they want to do.

570
00:29:42.920 --> 00:29:45.240
<v Speaker 2>Yes, I mean, we're right back in the same spot.

571
00:29:45.359 --> 00:29:48.240
<v Speaker 2>But you can you could. You have a couple options here.

572
00:29:48.319 --> 00:29:52.240
<v Speaker 2>One is you can take I hate to use this terminology,

573
00:29:52.319 --> 00:29:54.680
<v Speaker 2>but you can take a different hostage and the ransom

574
00:29:54.880 --> 00:29:58.240
<v Speaker 2>is changes in Ice. Other things Trumps want, right, you

575
00:29:58.279 --> 00:29:59.839
<v Speaker 2>cannot give them. You can shut down the whole government

576
00:29:59.880 --> 00:30:04.279
<v Speaker 2>of you can put real pressure on them once again,

577
00:30:05.039 --> 00:30:07.359
<v Speaker 2>Ice has money, Like, there is a limit to what

578
00:30:07.400 --> 00:30:09.519
<v Speaker 2>you can do here up until the moment you have

579
00:30:09.559 --> 00:30:12.920
<v Speaker 2>a trifecta where well you you if we have a trifecta,

580
00:30:12.960 --> 00:30:15.039
<v Speaker 2>you can do the following things. One, you can take

581
00:30:15.039 --> 00:30:17.759
<v Speaker 2>that money and redirected elsewhere. You could with a trifecta

582
00:30:18.599 --> 00:30:20.759
<v Speaker 2>abolish Ice in some way, shape or form.

583
00:30:20.759 --> 00:30:22.680
<v Speaker 3>Oh yeah, yeah, if we have a democratic president, then

584
00:30:22.720 --> 00:30:24.400
<v Speaker 3>you do all those things. But yes, but for the

585
00:30:24.440 --> 00:30:27.160
<v Speaker 3>next it'll be even winning back Congress, it'll be hard

586
00:30:27.200 --> 00:30:29.079
<v Speaker 3>for the next two years to do anything outside of

587
00:30:29.440 --> 00:30:33.400
<v Speaker 3>threatening to shut down the government over over Ice. But

588
00:30:33.759 --> 00:30:36.079
<v Speaker 3>you know, like you said, take a different hostage, or

589
00:30:36.640 --> 00:30:39.559
<v Speaker 3>probably the most likely path is to hold all kinds

590
00:30:39.599 --> 00:30:41.279
<v Speaker 3>of hearings and oversight.

591
00:30:41.160 --> 00:30:44.319
<v Speaker 2>And you can get I mean, which will hopefully sort

592
00:30:44.400 --> 00:30:48.400
<v Speaker 2>of till the ground for the battles to come when

593
00:30:48.440 --> 00:30:50.799
<v Speaker 2>you have the trifecta, but you can't like some of

594
00:30:50.799 --> 00:30:52.720
<v Speaker 2>the policy changes we did not get in this time,

595
00:30:52.759 --> 00:30:57.359
<v Speaker 2>you can make another run at in eight.

596
00:30:57.400 --> 00:30:59.160
<v Speaker 3>I also think it's worth saying that just from a

597
00:30:59.319 --> 00:31:02.160
<v Speaker 3>and we talk about about politics and campaigns and what's

598
00:31:02.160 --> 00:31:05.640
<v Speaker 3>most likely to help win an election. But when these

599
00:31:05.680 --> 00:31:10.160
<v Speaker 3>stories are in the news, and when public officials, whether

600
00:31:10.160 --> 00:31:13.799
<v Speaker 3>their local, state or national talk about them and lift

601
00:31:13.880 --> 00:31:16.799
<v Speaker 3>up the stories, like the politics are bad for the

602
00:31:16.799 --> 00:31:20.960
<v Speaker 3>Trump administration. Usually when they are, when Donald Trump's approval

603
00:31:21.039 --> 00:31:23.920
<v Speaker 3>ratings in the shitter, he turns to immigration to try

604
00:31:23.960 --> 00:31:27.240
<v Speaker 3>to get his mojo back. And it is telling that

605
00:31:27.839 --> 00:31:32.039
<v Speaker 3>they have chosen, you know, the democratic socialist communist threat

606
00:31:32.119 --> 00:31:35.519
<v Speaker 3>over immigration this time around, because they just went through

607
00:31:35.559 --> 00:31:38.559
<v Speaker 3>a cycle back. I don't know when it was earlier

608
00:31:38.559 --> 00:31:43.279
<v Speaker 3>this year, last year, when their immigration agenda was underwater

609
00:31:43.359 --> 00:31:46.079
<v Speaker 3>and became pretty unpopular. Not as unpopular as how he

610
00:31:46.119 --> 00:31:48.359
<v Speaker 3>handles cost of living or jobs or any or through

611
00:31:48.359 --> 00:31:50.400
<v Speaker 3>around war, but still unpopular.

612
00:31:50.519 --> 00:31:52.599
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's not an advantage for him anymore, which is

613
00:31:52.599 --> 00:31:54.960
<v Speaker 2>a huge change in the huge firmament.

614
00:31:55.119 --> 00:31:58.519
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, all right. This week's Democratic primaries were one of

615
00:31:58.519 --> 00:32:02.039
<v Speaker 3>the last contests before the midterms. A week after Abdul

616
00:32:02.079 --> 00:32:05.359
<v Speaker 3>Elsaiya defeated the establishment back to Hailey Stevens by just

617
00:32:05.480 --> 00:32:08.440
<v Speaker 3>under a point in the Michigan Senate primary, the more

618
00:32:08.480 --> 00:32:12.039
<v Speaker 3>moderate David Crowley eked out an upset over Democratic socialist

619
00:32:12.079 --> 00:32:16.480
<v Speaker 3>Francesca hang in the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary. In Minnesota, the

620
00:32:16.480 --> 00:32:20.519
<v Speaker 3>more progressive Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan beat Congresswoman Angie Craig

621
00:32:20.559 --> 00:32:24.559
<v Speaker 3>by twenty points. In Connecticut, the center left mayor of Hartford,

622
00:32:24.640 --> 00:32:28.119
<v Speaker 3>Luke Bronan, knocked off seventy eight year old Congressman John Larson,

623
00:32:28.440 --> 00:32:32.359
<v Speaker 3>making him making Larson the seventh House Democrat to lose

624
00:32:32.400 --> 00:32:35.720
<v Speaker 3>a primary this year and the fifth past his retirement age.

625
00:32:36.079 --> 00:32:38.680
<v Speaker 3>Twenty twenty six is now tied with twenty twelve. Is

626
00:32:38.720 --> 00:32:42.319
<v Speaker 3>the worst year for Democratic incumbents in primaries this century.

627
00:32:43.200 --> 00:32:46.440
<v Speaker 3>When you step back and squint at all the primary

628
00:32:46.480 --> 00:32:50.440
<v Speaker 3>results this year, do they tell to you any kind

629
00:32:50.440 --> 00:32:54.799
<v Speaker 3>of cohesive story about Democratic voters and the Democratic Party.

630
00:32:55.400 --> 00:33:00.440
<v Speaker 2>It's complicated, but yes, if you look at all the results,

631
00:33:00.480 --> 00:33:03.880
<v Speaker 2>all the ones we've had all of the DSA wins,

632
00:33:04.039 --> 00:33:06.920
<v Speaker 2>the incumbents who got elected, the combants who got defeated.

633
00:33:07.240 --> 00:33:08.720
<v Speaker 2>I think you can take a couple of things from this.

634
00:33:08.880 --> 00:33:15.640
<v Speaker 2>One Democrats are furious that Donald Trump's president. Two Democrats

635
00:33:15.720 --> 00:33:20.400
<v Speaker 2>are incredibly skeptical and distrustful of their own leaders, their

636
00:33:20.400 --> 00:33:23.160
<v Speaker 2>own institutions, and the way the party has done politics

637
00:33:23.160 --> 00:33:28.119
<v Speaker 2>in the past. Democrats are incredibly fired up about voting.

638
00:33:28.279 --> 00:33:31.480
<v Speaker 2>They are turning out in huge numbers, Like in Wisconsin.

639
00:33:31.960 --> 00:33:34.960
<v Speaker 2>This is a statistic blew me away. Nearly two hund

640
00:33:34.960 --> 00:33:38.160
<v Speaker 2>and fifty thousand more people voted in this Wisconsin primary

641
00:33:38.200 --> 00:33:40.079
<v Speaker 2>than in twenty eighteen, the year of the big Blue Wave.

642
00:33:40.400 --> 00:33:41.359
<v Speaker 3>I know that's wild.

643
00:33:42.240 --> 00:33:44.599
<v Speaker 2>Now, what I think is, when you look at all

644
00:33:44.640 --> 00:33:50.480
<v Speaker 2>of this, it sort of belies the overly simplistic narratives

645
00:33:50.519 --> 00:33:52.720
<v Speaker 2>that people who talk about politics wiliving and tries to

646
00:33:52.799 --> 00:33:57.480
<v Speaker 2>gm this through DSA vers centrists, left first, right institution

647
00:33:57.599 --> 00:34:01.799
<v Speaker 2>versus anti institution, even generational like. It's a lot of

648
00:34:01.799 --> 00:34:07.079
<v Speaker 2>these races. And the thing is, the Wisconsin and Michigan

649
00:34:07.279 --> 00:34:10.519
<v Speaker 2>races come by. If eighteen thousand votes between the two

650
00:34:10.519 --> 00:34:12.320
<v Speaker 2>of them had gone a different way, we would have

651
00:34:12.320 --> 00:34:15.559
<v Speaker 2>been like DSA is dead. Long live the moderates or

652
00:34:16.280 --> 00:34:22.840
<v Speaker 2>or like go comrade socialists have one and it's all

653
00:34:22.840 --> 00:34:25.079
<v Speaker 2>more complicated, and voters looked at it and made decisions,

654
00:34:25.079 --> 00:34:26.760
<v Speaker 2>and there was some local factors in all of them.

655
00:34:27.119 --> 00:34:29.000
<v Speaker 2>I think the one thing that is true is that

656
00:34:29.079 --> 00:34:32.800
<v Speaker 2>voters are looking for fresh faces, and those fresh faces

657
00:34:32.840 --> 00:34:35.719
<v Speaker 2>are often younger. And we saw that and all the

658
00:34:35.760 --> 00:34:38.320
<v Speaker 2>incumbents you mentioned, it is a fresh face who has

659
00:34:38.360 --> 00:34:40.679
<v Speaker 2>come in and beating them in almost always a younger one.

660
00:34:41.199 --> 00:34:43.679
<v Speaker 2>And you know, and I think that that, like the

661
00:34:43.800 --> 00:34:45.880
<v Speaker 2>Democratic voters are done with the gerontocracy.

662
00:34:46.159 --> 00:34:50.599
<v Speaker 3>To your point about how many more voters are participating

663
00:34:50.679 --> 00:34:53.639
<v Speaker 3>in this year's primaries versus twenty eighteen, or at least

664
00:34:53.679 --> 00:34:58.960
<v Speaker 3>in Wisconsin, is part of that that people who usually

665
00:34:59.079 --> 00:35:01.280
<v Speaker 3>just vote in a gener roal election but not a

666
00:35:01.280 --> 00:35:03.960
<v Speaker 3>primary are now voting in a primary. I thought I

667
00:35:04.000 --> 00:35:06.599
<v Speaker 3>saw somewhere that like just the interest is so high

668
00:35:06.880 --> 00:35:10.840
<v Speaker 3>that even a lot of normy Democrats quote unquote who

669
00:35:11.000 --> 00:35:13.000
<v Speaker 3>usually just turn out in a general but not a primary,

670
00:35:13.039 --> 00:35:16.239
<v Speaker 3>are now like interested enough and engage enough that they

671
00:35:16.239 --> 00:35:17.880
<v Speaker 3>want to participate in the primary.

672
00:35:18.039 --> 00:35:21.199
<v Speaker 2>Yes, that's definitely happening. Wisconsin is particularly impressive. You have

673
00:35:21.239 --> 00:35:23.079
<v Speaker 2>to run out because Wisconsin's one of the highest turnout

674
00:35:23.079 --> 00:35:26.079
<v Speaker 2>states in the country. But yeah, I think the stakes

675
00:35:26.079 --> 00:35:28.880
<v Speaker 2>of these primaries feel very high to people because I

676
00:35:28.920 --> 00:35:31.079
<v Speaker 2>think there is a real question about where our party

677
00:35:31.159 --> 00:35:33.360
<v Speaker 2>is going, and people want to have a say in that.

678
00:35:33.440 --> 00:35:35.880
<v Speaker 2>So they are turning out and it like it does.

679
00:35:35.960 --> 00:35:37.920
<v Speaker 2>It felt that way, Wisconsin felt that way, in Michigan

680
00:35:38.280 --> 00:35:40.280
<v Speaker 2>in these races. It's certainly I think that to the

681
00:35:40.320 --> 00:35:42.239
<v Speaker 2>people in New York City in those races, or in

682
00:35:42.280 --> 00:35:44.559
<v Speaker 2>the Colorado one, it felt that way where it's like,

683
00:35:44.960 --> 00:35:46.519
<v Speaker 2>our party is going to go one of two ways,

684
00:35:46.559 --> 00:35:47.880
<v Speaker 2>and I want to have a say in which way

685
00:35:47.880 --> 00:35:50.960
<v Speaker 2>it goes, because the direction we choose is going to matter,

686
00:35:51.079 --> 00:35:53.199
<v Speaker 2>not just in the twenty twenty six but in twenty

687
00:35:53.199 --> 00:35:53.960
<v Speaker 2>twenty eight and beyond.

688
00:36:02.199 --> 00:36:04.760
<v Speaker 3>Podzave America is brought to you by ZipRecruiter. With everyday

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692
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693
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739
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747
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<v Speaker 3>So on that note, the primary results have inevitably led

748
00:38:48.320 --> 00:38:53.159
<v Speaker 3>to another round of electability discourse, easily one of the

749
00:38:53.199 --> 00:38:56.039
<v Speaker 3>top five discourses in the Democratic Party. What are you?

750
00:38:56.079 --> 00:39:03.280
<v Speaker 3>What else is on the list? Let's see motivation versus persuasion, motivation,

751
00:39:03.360 --> 00:39:11.079
<v Speaker 3>persuasion left versus center left? Yeah, let's see, uh, orange

752
00:39:11.079 --> 00:39:13.280
<v Speaker 3>man bad is the best as the as the best

753
00:39:13.320 --> 00:39:14.079
<v Speaker 3>political strategy?

754
00:39:14.159 --> 00:39:17.159
<v Speaker 2>Yes for us? Yeah? Okay, how M should we focus

755
00:39:17.239 --> 00:39:17.599
<v Speaker 2>on Trump?

756
00:39:17.840 --> 00:39:21.599
<v Speaker 3>Right? Right? Wokeness? It's kind of a relatively new one.

757
00:39:21.599 --> 00:39:23.079
<v Speaker 3>I don't know. I'm just kind of shooting from the

758
00:39:23.159 --> 00:39:28.679
<v Speaker 3>hip here. How are Democratic voters judging which candidate is

759
00:39:28.719 --> 00:39:32.159
<v Speaker 3>more electable here in twenty twenty six based on everything

760
00:39:32.159 --> 00:39:34.400
<v Speaker 3>that you have seen thus far this year?

761
00:39:35.400 --> 00:39:39.559
<v Speaker 2>I think, like the pundits, the voters don't know who's

762
00:39:39.559 --> 00:39:42.840
<v Speaker 2>more electable, and that is showing up at these races

763
00:39:42.840 --> 00:39:45.480
<v Speaker 2>as people are making different choices. What I think is

764
00:39:45.559 --> 00:39:48.239
<v Speaker 2>interesting is electability. There's been this big discussion, like voter

765
00:39:48.719 --> 00:39:51.480
<v Speaker 2>in the Trump era, of Democratic voters care a lot

766
00:39:51.559 --> 00:39:54.760
<v Speaker 2>about electability, and that is true. But it's also always

767
00:39:54.760 --> 00:39:57.639
<v Speaker 2>been true, and it is also an axiomatic thing, which

768
00:39:57.800 --> 00:39:59.760
<v Speaker 2>is you want do you want? Do you want someone

769
00:39:59.800 --> 00:40:01.840
<v Speaker 2>who can win or do you want someone who is

770
00:40:01.880 --> 00:40:03.880
<v Speaker 2>less likely to win but agrees with you. People always

771
00:40:03.920 --> 00:40:06.280
<v Speaker 2>pick the one who's going to win. You even look

772
00:40:06.280 --> 00:40:08.000
<v Speaker 2>at the even before Trump in two thousand and four,

773
00:40:08.840 --> 00:40:11.559
<v Speaker 2>when the Democratic primary that you were working on was

774
00:40:11.599 --> 00:40:13.719
<v Speaker 2>going forward, people all of a sudden were like, wait

775
00:40:13.760 --> 00:40:17.159
<v Speaker 2>a minute, we're going to run the anti war governor

776
00:40:17.199 --> 00:40:20.159
<v Speaker 2>of Vermont against George W. Bush. That's not a good idea.

777
00:40:20.159 --> 00:40:22.000
<v Speaker 2>And then they immediately shifted to John Kerry the war

778
00:40:22.039 --> 00:40:24.840
<v Speaker 2>hero didn't work out great, but you understand the thinking

779
00:40:24.880 --> 00:40:29.039
<v Speaker 2>that got them there. In twenty twenty, electability drove Biden's nomination.

780
00:40:30.000 --> 00:40:33.119
<v Speaker 2>Six in ten voters in a Gallup poll at that

781
00:40:33.119 --> 00:40:35.239
<v Speaker 2>time said they'd rather have someone who is more likely

782
00:40:35.239 --> 00:40:37.079
<v Speaker 2>to beat Trump than someone who they agreed with on

783
00:40:37.159 --> 00:40:39.880
<v Speaker 2>policy issues. In the exit polls of the primary states,

784
00:40:40.199 --> 00:40:42.639
<v Speaker 2>six in ten voters in most cases said electability was

785
00:40:42.639 --> 00:40:46.000
<v Speaker 2>their top issue. People care about it. What is different now,

786
00:40:47.039 --> 00:40:49.960
<v Speaker 2>and I believe you see this in both Wisconsin and Michigan,

787
00:40:50.880 --> 00:40:57.480
<v Speaker 2>is that the voters no longer trust the Democratic Party

788
00:40:57.559 --> 00:41:01.000
<v Speaker 2>establishment and the experts to tell them who is most selectable,

789
00:41:01.039 --> 00:41:02.519
<v Speaker 2>and they have to see it with their own eyes

790
00:41:02.559 --> 00:41:03.920
<v Speaker 2>and make their own judgment, because you haven't.

791
00:41:03.800 --> 00:41:05.760
<v Speaker 3>Michigan unless it's Tony Evers.

792
00:41:06.320 --> 00:41:09.920
<v Speaker 2>Well, I mean, I think we can debate Tony. Tony

793
00:41:09.960 --> 00:41:11.800
<v Speaker 2>Evers obviously play a huge role on this. But this

794
00:41:11.840 --> 00:41:14.840
<v Speaker 2>is the reustweet Michigan Wisconsin is all of the voices

795
00:41:14.880 --> 00:41:18.679
<v Speaker 2>were saying Abdul is less selectable. Voters looked at that race,

796
00:41:18.719 --> 00:41:21.760
<v Speaker 2>They looked at him. It was not patently obvious to him,

797
00:41:22.039 --> 00:41:24.199
<v Speaker 2>meant to enough of them that he was less electable

798
00:41:24.239 --> 00:41:29.559
<v Speaker 2>than Hilly Stevens Wisconsin. Evers made elect to build a

799
00:41:29.639 --> 00:41:32.000
<v Speaker 2>number one issue down the stretch by announcing that he

800
00:41:32.119 --> 00:41:34.920
<v Speaker 2>thought Hong could not win or was unlikely to win

801
00:41:34.920 --> 00:41:37.199
<v Speaker 2>if she was the nominee. But then Hong went on

802
00:41:37.239 --> 00:41:40.800
<v Speaker 2>a media tour where she did not acquit herself great

803
00:41:40.920 --> 00:41:43.840
<v Speaker 2>and raise and sort of amplified the questions that Evers

804
00:41:43.840 --> 00:41:45.719
<v Speaker 2>had raised and votes, so voters looked at that. I

805
00:41:45.719 --> 00:41:47.559
<v Speaker 2>think if Evers had said she can't win and then

806
00:41:47.599 --> 00:41:50.559
<v Speaker 2>she had done fine, they probably would have still picked Hong.

807
00:41:50.880 --> 00:41:53.960
<v Speaker 2>But because of that, enough of people changed their mind

808
00:41:54.000 --> 00:41:57.559
<v Speaker 2>in the final days to do it. And then in Minnesota,

809
00:41:58.199 --> 00:42:01.760
<v Speaker 2>where Angie Craig made electability of the centerpiece of issue,

810
00:42:02.000 --> 00:42:04.360
<v Speaker 2>no one thought we would lose that seat, so they

811
00:42:04.400 --> 00:42:04.880
<v Speaker 2>didn't care.

812
00:42:05.159 --> 00:42:07.760
<v Speaker 3>I think that's a really important point that's getting lost

813
00:42:07.960 --> 00:42:10.400
<v Speaker 3>in the Minnesota example, because I think it sort of

814
00:42:11.119 --> 00:42:14.360
<v Speaker 3>like I think a lot of voters, especially like highly

815
00:42:14.400 --> 00:42:17.400
<v Speaker 3>engaged voters who pay attention to this, who are the

816
00:42:17.440 --> 00:42:22.719
<v Speaker 3>voters that vote in primaries, They try to make rational

817
00:42:22.760 --> 00:42:25.840
<v Speaker 3>decisions about who is going to who they think is

818
00:42:25.880 --> 00:42:30.360
<v Speaker 3>going to win the race, right, And if you're in

819
00:42:30.400 --> 00:42:34.199
<v Speaker 3>a state like Minnesota, where it just seems like the

820
00:42:34.239 --> 00:42:37.079
<v Speaker 3>Democrat is going to win. And now Minnesota is not

821
00:42:37.119 --> 00:42:39.280
<v Speaker 3>like a deep blue state, but you could make a

822
00:42:39.320 --> 00:42:43.840
<v Speaker 3>good argument that Angie Craig or Peggy Flanagan, whoever won

823
00:42:43.880 --> 00:42:47.320
<v Speaker 3>that nomination was going to Yes, it was going to

824
00:42:47.320 --> 00:42:50.000
<v Speaker 3>be a heavy favorite. It yes, right, like a likely DC.

825
00:42:51.760 --> 00:42:54.480
<v Speaker 3>And so in that scenario, as a voter, you look

826
00:42:54.480 --> 00:42:56.079
<v Speaker 3>at the choices and you're like, well, now I am

827
00:42:56.159 --> 00:42:59.719
<v Speaker 3>free to just support whoever I want to support that

828
00:42:59.760 --> 00:43:03.159
<v Speaker 3>I leave in the most and you know, Peggy Flana

829
00:43:03.159 --> 00:43:08.320
<v Speaker 3>again wins by twenty points in Wisconsin. You have to

830
00:43:08.400 --> 00:43:11.119
<v Speaker 3>imagine there were a bunch of Francesca Hall people who

831
00:43:11.159 --> 00:43:14.400
<v Speaker 3>really liked Francesca Hang and probably agreed with her more

832
00:43:14.599 --> 00:43:17.480
<v Speaker 3>on the issues, or found her campaign more inspiring or

833
00:43:17.480 --> 00:43:21.119
<v Speaker 3>whatever it may be than David Crowley, but looked around,

834
00:43:21.920 --> 00:43:26.519
<v Speaker 3>looked at polls, looked at her performances, maybe looked at

835
00:43:26.519 --> 00:43:29.239
<v Speaker 3>their governor that they like very much, even though he's

836
00:43:29.519 --> 00:43:34.280
<v Speaker 3>older in establishment, and said, you know what, can't do it,

837
00:43:34.360 --> 00:43:36.239
<v Speaker 3>can't do it. It's too important to win this day.

838
00:43:36.480 --> 00:43:39.119
<v Speaker 3>And like that seems to me like a entire like

839
00:43:39.280 --> 00:43:41.599
<v Speaker 3>I know everyone always says, like, well, electability is all

840
00:43:41.639 --> 00:43:44.000
<v Speaker 3>subjective and it doesn't matter. But like I do, think

841
00:43:44.519 --> 00:43:49.239
<v Speaker 3>there have to be some sort of objective standards by

842
00:43:49.239 --> 00:43:52.679
<v Speaker 3>which to judge electability that I think voters are trying

843
00:43:52.760 --> 00:43:55.840
<v Speaker 3>to sort of figure out on their own.

844
00:43:57.440 --> 00:43:59.000
<v Speaker 2>There are I think the way I like to think

845
00:43:59.039 --> 00:44:02.159
<v Speaker 2>about it is no one knows for sure who is

846
00:44:02.239 --> 00:44:04.599
<v Speaker 2>lexible and who isn't, and the political environment is much

847
00:44:04.639 --> 00:44:08.039
<v Speaker 2>more important than the quality of any individual candidate. But

848
00:44:08.199 --> 00:44:10.440
<v Speaker 2>there are things we can look at. They give us

849
00:44:10.440 --> 00:44:15.119
<v Speaker 2>an idea on people selectability, one of which is how

850
00:44:15.199 --> 00:44:17.760
<v Speaker 2>they hit. What is their history of winning tough races?

851
00:44:17.960 --> 00:44:21.360
<v Speaker 2>Do they have? It is their actual evidence of them

852
00:44:21.360 --> 00:44:24.039
<v Speaker 2>winning every swing voters. This is quantified by split ticket

853
00:44:24.039 --> 00:44:26.000
<v Speaker 2>and their wins over replacement model. But you can just

854
00:44:26.360 --> 00:44:31.119
<v Speaker 2>like we know that Andy Basheer and Josh Shapiro can

855
00:44:31.199 --> 00:44:34.719
<v Speaker 2>win over Republican voters. They have proven that in multiplications.

856
00:44:35.039 --> 00:44:37.519
<v Speaker 2>Do we know they Gavin Newsome or aoc canto it?

857
00:44:37.559 --> 00:44:40.559
<v Speaker 2>We do not know that. Can they maybe? But they've

858
00:44:40.559 --> 00:44:42.679
<v Speaker 2>never proven to be for so that's an untested proposition.

859
00:44:42.880 --> 00:44:45.840
<v Speaker 3>We should say back because it's actually very useful for people.

860
00:44:45.880 --> 00:44:50.079
<v Speaker 3>I think is the wins above replacement sort of calculation Basically,

861
00:44:50.079 --> 00:44:52.920
<v Speaker 3>what split Ticket has done is and other people have

862
00:44:53.000 --> 00:44:56.079
<v Speaker 3>done think similar, But what they've done is they come

863
00:44:56.159 --> 00:44:59.159
<v Speaker 3>up with like a baseline right, so off like the

864
00:44:59.199 --> 00:45:02.000
<v Speaker 3>base line generic democrat do, right, how would a generic

865
00:45:02.039 --> 00:45:04.440
<v Speaker 3>Democrat do? So what was like the national sort of

866
00:45:04.880 --> 00:45:07.199
<v Speaker 3>was the national House vote or and they put a

867
00:45:07.199 --> 00:45:08.719
<v Speaker 3>whole bunch of factors into it. And so if a

868
00:45:09.079 --> 00:45:11.559
<v Speaker 3>if a regular Democrat, if a generic Democrat would win

869
00:45:11.559 --> 00:45:14.440
<v Speaker 3>this race by two points, and ex candidate wins it

870
00:45:14.440 --> 00:45:18.320
<v Speaker 3>by four points, then their plus two win above replacement.

871
00:45:18.599 --> 00:45:21.199
<v Speaker 3>If the other Democrat still wins the race but only

872
00:45:21.199 --> 00:45:24.119
<v Speaker 3>wins it by one point, then they're minus one wins

873
00:45:24.119 --> 00:45:26.480
<v Speaker 3>above replacement. And you can do this with all the

874
00:45:26.480 --> 00:45:28.519
<v Speaker 3>different House candidates and all the different Now, what was

875
00:45:28.559 --> 00:45:32.440
<v Speaker 3>interesting in the case of Michigan is, first of all,

876
00:45:32.599 --> 00:45:37.039
<v Speaker 3>a duel had run once for governor and lost so

877
00:45:37.719 --> 00:45:39.719
<v Speaker 3>in a primary, so he didn't have a long record there.

878
00:45:39.880 --> 00:45:44.760
<v Speaker 3>Haley Stevens was sort of the lowest wins above average

879
00:45:44.800 --> 00:45:48.679
<v Speaker 3>of any of the Democrats in the House in Michigan,

880
00:45:49.360 --> 00:45:52.800
<v Speaker 3>which I hadn't realized. So in that scenario you actually

881
00:45:52.800 --> 00:45:56.000
<v Speaker 3>didn't like it. Seemed like Hailey Stevens was like because

882
00:45:56.039 --> 00:45:58.599
<v Speaker 3>she was more moderate and backed by the establishment. Like

883
00:45:58.920 --> 00:46:02.400
<v Speaker 3>maybe it's thinks she is more electable, but in terms

884
00:46:02.400 --> 00:46:05.880
<v Speaker 3>of the the objective measures you had, that wasn't necessarily

885
00:46:05.880 --> 00:46:08.119
<v Speaker 3>the case. Sure enough the argument which is, you know,

886
00:46:08.239 --> 00:46:10.800
<v Speaker 3>lecture Jane, who's the polster for the argument and does

887
00:46:10.880 --> 00:46:14.079
<v Speaker 3>the and also is split ticket does the wins above replacement?

888
00:46:14.920 --> 00:46:18.440
<v Speaker 3>He said that they had in their model, if they

889
00:46:18.480 --> 00:46:21.039
<v Speaker 3>have abdul is a seventy percent chance of winning the

890
00:46:21.119 --> 00:46:24.440
<v Speaker 3>general and Hailey Stevens would have been eighty percent chance.

891
00:46:24.719 --> 00:46:28.039
<v Speaker 3>So it's like ten percent difference. Is it's something, but

892
00:46:28.079 --> 00:46:28.400
<v Speaker 3>it's not.

893
00:46:28.639 --> 00:46:31.960
<v Speaker 2>It's big. It's actually we could different between seventy and

894
00:46:32.000 --> 00:46:36.039
<v Speaker 2>eighty doesn't feel huge. Difference between fifty and forty feels

895
00:46:36.119 --> 00:46:38.039
<v Speaker 2>quite big when you get there. Well, but that I

896
00:46:38.079 --> 00:46:41.400
<v Speaker 2>think that's the other that gets you to the other measures,

897
00:46:41.679 --> 00:46:46.079
<v Speaker 2>which not then you get past data, right, Yeah, And

898
00:46:46.960 --> 00:46:51.119
<v Speaker 2>so then there is the question of extremism, and it

899
00:46:51.159 --> 00:46:53.599
<v Speaker 2>is a there is. It's not always true, but it

900
00:46:53.639 --> 00:46:56.920
<v Speaker 2>is mostly true that the candidate who is seen as

901
00:46:57.000 --> 00:47:00.480
<v Speaker 2>more extreme loses. This is the thing that makes people

902
00:47:00.480 --> 00:47:02.480
<v Speaker 2>want to throw their phone in the ocean. But Donald

903
00:47:02.519 --> 00:47:05.679
<v Speaker 2>Trump was seen is more moderate than Kamala Harris in

904
00:47:05.760 --> 00:47:08.920
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty four and Joe Biden was seen is more

905
00:47:08.920 --> 00:47:12.440
<v Speaker 2>moderate than Donald Trump in twenty twenty And so you

906
00:47:12.480 --> 00:47:15.480
<v Speaker 2>look at that and you say, does ab do Like

907
00:47:15.480 --> 00:47:18.079
<v Speaker 2>if you take Michigan for instance, you would say, does

908
00:47:18.079 --> 00:47:20.880
<v Speaker 2>Abdull have positions and statements that could be used to

909
00:47:20.960 --> 00:47:24.360
<v Speaker 2>make him see more extreme than Hailey Stevens. Possibly. I

910
00:47:24.360 --> 00:47:26.360
<v Speaker 2>think that's probably where you get to this, that that

911
00:47:26.679 --> 00:47:30.239
<v Speaker 2>net difference for them. Then the third thing is candidate quality.

912
00:47:30.280 --> 00:47:32.880
<v Speaker 2>And this is all subjective where you're like, does this

913
00:47:32.920 --> 00:47:35.519
<v Speaker 2>person seem like they can stand in This is gonna

914
00:47:35.519 --> 00:47:38.039
<v Speaker 2>particularly true in a presdential debate. Can the presidential election?

915
00:47:38.320 --> 00:47:40.440
<v Speaker 2>Can they stand on the stage with jd Vance or

916
00:47:40.440 --> 00:47:43.159
<v Speaker 2>Marco Rubio or Tucker Carls somewhere else and like hold

917
00:47:43.199 --> 00:47:46.159
<v Speaker 2>their own do they can they go on podcasts? Can

918
00:47:46.159 --> 00:47:48.039
<v Speaker 2>they give a good speech? Can they do those things?

919
00:47:48.239 --> 00:47:51.440
<v Speaker 2>And that I think is where Abdul seemed like he could,

920
00:47:51.679 --> 00:47:54.119
<v Speaker 2>Like he really showed a lot of candidate skill, and

921
00:47:54.280 --> 00:47:56.360
<v Speaker 2>Haley just ran a campaign in the end that where

922
00:47:56.400 --> 00:47:58.079
<v Speaker 2>she was just not very present in the media, so

923
00:47:58.079 --> 00:47:59.960
<v Speaker 2>people didn't see her, although I would say she here

924
00:48:00.000 --> 00:48:03.480
<v Speaker 2>her post election media tour, she has crushed. Yeah, and

925
00:48:03.480 --> 00:48:07.760
<v Speaker 2>then Hong went on this huge media tour, did every

926
00:48:07.760 --> 00:48:11.440
<v Speaker 2>interview seemed ill prepared for a lot of them, and

927
00:48:12.199 --> 00:48:14.480
<v Speaker 2>that people saw that with the Rownai so it's like, yes,

928
00:48:14.519 --> 00:48:18.599
<v Speaker 2>ever said that, but then everyone actually saw clips that

929
00:48:18.679 --> 00:48:21.880
<v Speaker 2>made them say maybe this person cannot win or is

930
00:48:21.960 --> 00:48:22.840
<v Speaker 2>less likely to win.

931
00:48:22.920 --> 00:48:25.119
<v Speaker 3>Well that's why Too was like, yeah, it is objective,

932
00:48:25.119 --> 00:48:28.119
<v Speaker 3>and no one really knows who's electable or not. Is

933
00:48:28.280 --> 00:48:31.159
<v Speaker 3>technically true, but all of this exists on a spectrum,

934
00:48:31.440 --> 00:48:33.280
<v Speaker 3>and there are some people where you're like, who's the

935
00:48:33.280 --> 00:48:35.880
<v Speaker 3>more electable candidate? Well, they're both kind of good on

936
00:48:35.960 --> 00:48:39.039
<v Speaker 3>TV and sometimes they make mistakes, but one's inspiring for

937
00:48:39.079 --> 00:48:41.280
<v Speaker 3>this reason and they're like, that's a close call with

938
00:48:41.440 --> 00:48:44.840
<v Speaker 3>like when Francesca hang goes on TV and is like, uh, well,

939
00:48:44.920 --> 00:48:47.519
<v Speaker 3>let's it have it has to talk about canceling Thanksgiving

940
00:48:47.960 --> 00:48:51.679
<v Speaker 3>and and why you know police exists to uphold white supremacy.

941
00:48:52.280 --> 00:48:55.559
<v Speaker 3>Most people, most people who don't pay attention to politics,

942
00:48:55.599 --> 00:48:57.880
<v Speaker 3>if you if you showed them that clip, they'd be like, yeah,

943
00:48:57.880 --> 00:49:01.199
<v Speaker 3>that's weird, No thank you, that's that's an easier or

944
00:49:01.519 --> 00:49:06.199
<v Speaker 3>or let's take another example, the Biden Trump debate, right, like,

945
00:49:06.239 --> 00:49:09.159
<v Speaker 3>and Biden does perform so perform so horribly that afterwards

946
00:49:09.199 --> 00:49:13.239
<v Speaker 3>it's like, okay, yeah, there's there's like nitpicky debate, you know,

947
00:49:13.679 --> 00:49:17.480
<v Speaker 3>figure skating judge quality to analyzing debates. But that's an

948
00:49:17.519 --> 00:49:20.679
<v Speaker 3>easy call. Most most people be like that's awful.

949
00:49:20.599 --> 00:49:23.440
<v Speaker 2>Right, See, these are extreme examples. But the problem it

950
00:49:23.440 --> 00:49:25.719
<v Speaker 2>gets harder, like as we get to the presidential election, right,

951
00:49:25.719 --> 00:49:28.599
<v Speaker 2>and so imagine you're down to at the end, I'm

952
00:49:28.639 --> 00:49:33.039
<v Speaker 2>just picking these sort of randomly, Gavin Newsom, Pete Buddhage Edge,

953
00:49:33.679 --> 00:49:40.159
<v Speaker 2>Kamala Harris, aoc Ooh, like yeah, say they're all like

954
00:49:40.199 --> 00:49:43.000
<v Speaker 2>you can make a case for all of them. And

955
00:49:43.039 --> 00:49:45.079
<v Speaker 2>then it becomes more subjected. And then the thing that

956
00:49:45.119 --> 00:49:48.599
<v Speaker 2>I think is important to note, and this is like

957
00:49:48.679 --> 00:49:51.880
<v Speaker 2>a huge problem in twenty twenty is the electability discourse

958
00:49:52.079 --> 00:49:57.199
<v Speaker 2>is very racially engender coded, and there's just like there

959
00:49:57.280 --> 00:49:59.239
<v Speaker 2>is This is particularly true in twenty twenty, where it's

960
00:49:59.239 --> 00:50:02.559
<v Speaker 2>just we alter the election through the mind of a

961
00:50:02.599 --> 00:50:05.159
<v Speaker 2>white dude in Wisconsin, and like who do they want?

962
00:50:05.480 --> 00:50:08.239
<v Speaker 2>And people you hear this in focus groups all the time.

963
00:50:08.679 --> 00:50:12.960
<v Speaker 2>People project onto voters they do not know biases. It's

964
00:50:13.000 --> 00:50:16.079
<v Speaker 2>like Kama Harris did with pe Pootage is the VP

965
00:50:16.519 --> 00:50:19.559
<v Speaker 2>where you say, well, he's a gay man, that's too

966
00:50:19.599 --> 00:50:23.239
<v Speaker 2>much for America, and that's like that very and that

967
00:50:23.480 --> 00:50:25.599
<v Speaker 2>and if you take that, but if you take that,

968
00:50:26.119 --> 00:50:28.519
<v Speaker 2>you never like you would have said, you also would

969
00:50:28.519 --> 00:50:30.800
<v Speaker 2>have said Broacu state Obama too much for America. There

970
00:50:30.800 --> 00:50:34.199
<v Speaker 2>are times like it's just it is, It's just I

971
00:50:34.239 --> 00:50:36.679
<v Speaker 2>think the discourse is. There are some things you can

972
00:50:36.719 --> 00:50:37.920
<v Speaker 2>look at it for a real there are some things

973
00:50:37.920 --> 00:50:42.760
<v Speaker 2>that makes it very quite complicated, and and certain can

974
00:50:42.880 --> 00:50:46.280
<v Speaker 2>narrow the aperture of what you're looking for. You're not

975
00:50:46.320 --> 00:50:48.400
<v Speaker 2>even doing it based on data. You're doing it as

976
00:50:48.559 --> 00:50:52.679
<v Speaker 2>of perceived biases of the electorate or small sample sizes

977
00:50:52.679 --> 00:50:54.159
<v Speaker 2>of women losing presidential elections.

978
00:50:54.400 --> 00:50:58.639
<v Speaker 3>Sometimes I think we confuse in the electability discourse the

979
00:50:58.800 --> 00:51:03.239
<v Speaker 3>very real proceed biases in the election in the electorate, right,

980
00:51:03.719 --> 00:51:06.320
<v Speaker 3>and the fact that a lot of this electability discourse

981
00:51:06.400 --> 00:51:13.199
<v Speaker 3>is absolutely gender and racially coded with Okay, but that's

982
00:51:13.800 --> 00:51:17.000
<v Speaker 3>that is true. That is how people think, and what

983
00:51:17.039 --> 00:51:20.199
<v Speaker 3>does a candidate in the campaign do to overcome that. So, yes,

984
00:51:21.119 --> 00:51:25.360
<v Speaker 3>people thought that Barack Obama was couldn't be president because

985
00:51:26.039 --> 00:51:27.599
<v Speaker 3>how are we going to elect a black guy named

986
00:51:27.599 --> 00:51:30.079
<v Speaker 3>Barack Hussein Obama from Chicago as president the United States?

987
00:51:30.119 --> 00:51:35.000
<v Speaker 3>When we just lost with the War Hero against George W.

988
00:51:35.079 --> 00:51:39.920
<v Speaker 3>Bush and and even black voters in South Carolina at

989
00:51:39.920 --> 00:51:42.039
<v Speaker 3>the beginning of the campaign did not think that Barack

990
00:51:42.039 --> 00:51:45.360
<v Speaker 3>Obama was ready to become president. So what did Barack

991
00:51:45.360 --> 00:51:48.400
<v Speaker 3>Obama do? He won over a bunch of white voters

992
00:51:48.440 --> 00:51:51.920
<v Speaker 3>in Iowa and proved that maybe it's not so crazy

993
00:51:52.559 --> 00:51:55.719
<v Speaker 3>to think that a black man named Obama could become president.

994
00:51:55.880 --> 00:51:58.800
<v Speaker 3>So part of this is realizing the biases that exist

995
00:51:58.800 --> 00:52:01.400
<v Speaker 3>in the electorate and then and then putting together a

996
00:52:01.440 --> 00:52:05.800
<v Speaker 3>strategy to overcome those biases and prove yourself. Unfair as

997
00:52:05.840 --> 00:52:08.960
<v Speaker 3>it may be, it is the world that we live, yeah, And.

998
00:52:08.880 --> 00:52:10.760
<v Speaker 2>What makes it more unfair, And this is where it

999
00:52:10.800 --> 00:52:13.000
<v Speaker 2>played in twenty twenty is there's a lot of the

1000
00:52:13.079 --> 00:52:17.280
<v Speaker 2>campaign that ever happens before you get to actual voters. Yeah,

1001
00:52:17.559 --> 00:52:20.480
<v Speaker 2>And so it's like, you need money, you need attention,

1002
00:52:20.800 --> 00:52:24.199
<v Speaker 2>and when people like there was a Elizabeth Warren was

1003
00:52:24.239 --> 00:52:26.000
<v Speaker 2>at the top of the polls, and so there was

1004
00:52:26.000 --> 00:52:28.360
<v Speaker 2>a Nearer Time story about how Elizabeth Warren probably couldn't

1005
00:52:28.360 --> 00:52:33.239
<v Speaker 2>beat Trump and she really tanked after that because the

1006
00:52:33.320 --> 00:52:36.440
<v Speaker 2>hyper engaged Democrats, particularly once at Iowa New Hampshire, We're like,

1007
00:52:36.480 --> 00:52:38.639
<v Speaker 2>oh wait, we love Elizabeth Warren, we like her policies,

1008
00:52:39.079 --> 00:52:42.360
<v Speaker 2>but she probably can't beat Trump. Well, then we six

1009
00:52:42.360 --> 00:52:43.840
<v Speaker 2>and ten of us would prefer to have somebody who

1010
00:52:43.840 --> 00:52:44.400
<v Speaker 2>could be Trump.

1011
00:52:44.519 --> 00:52:48.119
<v Speaker 3>And this is going this is going to absolutely shade

1012
00:52:48.800 --> 00:52:51.440
<v Speaker 3>a lot of the discourse going into twenty twenty eight. Yeah,

1013
00:52:51.440 --> 00:52:55.639
<v Speaker 3>particularly because we have lost to Donald Trump two times now, yep,

1014
00:52:56.239 --> 00:52:58.440
<v Speaker 3>you know, and so like, you know, unfairly or not,

1015
00:52:58.480 --> 00:52:59.920
<v Speaker 3>it's going to be a huge part of it's going

1016
00:52:59.920 --> 00:53:02.280
<v Speaker 3>to be it's going to be I think hard for

1017
00:53:02.320 --> 00:53:04.280
<v Speaker 3>a lot of these candidates to overcome it. But you know,

1018
00:53:05.079 --> 00:53:16.119
<v Speaker 3>stranger things have happened. Barack Obama became president had Dave

1019
00:53:16.119 --> 00:53:18.000
<v Speaker 3>America is brought to you by ag one. This summer

1020
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1022
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<v Speaker 3>drink ag one dot com slash crooked. The poles were

1045
00:54:35.039 --> 00:54:38.920
<v Speaker 3>off by a decent amount in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota

1046
00:54:38.960 --> 00:54:42.760
<v Speaker 3>for different reasons. As the host of Polar Coaster, you

1047
00:54:42.800 --> 00:54:46.679
<v Speaker 3>are therefore required to defend the switchcraft that you keep

1048
00:54:46.719 --> 00:54:51.519
<v Speaker 3>telling us will predict the future with near certainty.

1049
00:54:51.840 --> 00:54:56.239
<v Speaker 2>Yes, that is that is what we say. The polls

1050
00:54:56.519 --> 00:54:58.519
<v Speaker 2>are not a snapshot in time. They're not at in

1051
00:54:58.599 --> 00:55:03.000
<v Speaker 2>precise measure. They are perfect too, saying yeah, look, I

1052
00:55:03.039 --> 00:55:05.719
<v Speaker 2>think if we look at these, the polls were very wrong.

1053
00:55:05.760 --> 00:55:10.000
<v Speaker 2>But let's talk about what that means in this case. One,

1054
00:55:10.880 --> 00:55:14.400
<v Speaker 2>it's worth noting that primary polls are often quite wrong. Yeah,

1055
00:55:14.440 --> 00:55:16.559
<v Speaker 2>Like they have a long history of being wrong. That

1056
00:55:16.639 --> 00:55:20.000
<v Speaker 2>has become more true in this era where it becomes

1057
00:55:20.000 --> 00:55:22.639
<v Speaker 2>almost impossible to get anyone to take a poll, because

1058
00:55:22.679 --> 00:55:26.320
<v Speaker 2>polling is now looks much more like election modeling, where

1059
00:55:26.360 --> 00:55:29.880
<v Speaker 2>you're guessing what the electorate looks like in advance and

1060
00:55:29.920 --> 00:55:35.039
<v Speaker 2>then waiting your very random sample to match that. And

1061
00:55:35.079 --> 00:55:37.559
<v Speaker 2>so if you guess the if you model the electorate wrong,

1062
00:55:38.400 --> 00:55:42.920
<v Speaker 2>you were going to miss everything. And that it's easier

1063
00:55:42.960 --> 00:55:45.239
<v Speaker 2>to model in a general election, particularly now we've had

1064
00:55:45.239 --> 00:55:46.639
<v Speaker 2>a bunch of them in the Trump era, which is

1065
00:55:46.639 --> 00:55:48.519
<v Speaker 2>why the poles were more accurate at twenty twenty four.

1066
00:55:49.679 --> 00:55:51.880
<v Speaker 2>But that's even harder in a primary. It's particularly hard

1067
00:55:51.960 --> 00:55:55.079
<v Speaker 2>in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota because those are open primary

1068
00:55:55.079 --> 00:55:58.760
<v Speaker 2>states where independence and Republicans can vote. It's one of

1069
00:55:58.800 --> 00:56:00.519
<v Speaker 2>the reasons that even it appear here is that the

1070
00:56:00.519 --> 00:56:03.119
<v Speaker 2>internal campaign polls were all wrong, because in those states,

1071
00:56:03.400 --> 00:56:06.400
<v Speaker 2>you can't even go off the voter file. It's a

1072
00:56:06.440 --> 00:56:10.760
<v Speaker 2>poll you are basically doing. You either these media polsters

1073
00:56:10.800 --> 00:56:13.960
<v Speaker 2>are relying on self reported party ID and the campaigns

1074
00:56:14.000 --> 00:56:16.039
<v Speaker 2>are using modeled support where they sort of guess whether

1075
00:56:16.079 --> 00:56:18.079
<v Speaker 2>someone's Republican or Democrat. But you go into it, you

1076
00:56:18.079 --> 00:56:20.039
<v Speaker 2>have no idea how many independents are going to Like

1077
00:56:20.039 --> 00:56:22.719
<v Speaker 2>they walk in to the to the voting booth and

1078
00:56:22.760 --> 00:56:25.679
<v Speaker 2>they pick a ballot, they get to choose right there,

1079
00:56:25.679 --> 00:56:28.559
<v Speaker 2>and so it's very hard to know. It also seems

1080
00:56:28.679 --> 00:56:32.599
<v Speaker 2>very clear that in these states the polsters over sampled

1081
00:56:33.559 --> 00:56:37.480
<v Speaker 2>young voters, and these young voters tend to be more progressive.

1082
00:56:37.599 --> 00:56:41.159
<v Speaker 2>They they're the ones supporting a duel and Flannagan and Hong,

1083
00:56:42.639 --> 00:56:45.920
<v Speaker 2>and that's a that's a misjudgment of how many people vote.

1084
00:56:46.079 --> 00:56:50.039
<v Speaker 2>And they are undersampling working class voters in particularly in

1085
00:56:50.440 --> 00:56:52.880
<v Speaker 2>Wisconsin and Michigan, black voters, and then The other thing

1086
00:56:52.880 --> 00:56:54.840
<v Speaker 2>I'd say is most of the polls that we saw

1087
00:56:54.920 --> 00:56:56.719
<v Speaker 2>were not high quality polls. We don't have New York

1088
00:56:56.719 --> 00:57:00.000
<v Speaker 2>Times Siena polls of these races. Marquette did poll. Marquette

1089
00:57:00.000 --> 00:57:03.199
<v Speaker 2>as a highly re polster. They did poll in Wisconsin

1090
00:57:03.440 --> 00:57:06.199
<v Speaker 2>and were wrong. But their polls actually more than a

1091
00:57:06.199 --> 00:57:07.960
<v Speaker 2>week old by the time the election happened. And one

1092
00:57:08.000 --> 00:57:10.559
<v Speaker 2>things that we you know, you'd get a poll a

1093
00:57:10.599 --> 00:57:13.440
<v Speaker 2>week out and it says the race is tied, and

1094
00:57:13.480 --> 00:57:16.119
<v Speaker 2>then one candid wins by three. Everyone says the poll

1095
00:57:16.199 --> 00:57:19.199
<v Speaker 2>is wrong. It's like, well, it's also possible addition to that,

1096
00:57:19.320 --> 00:57:23.000
<v Speaker 2>just being the Martian eferror, people changed their mind. Undecideds

1097
00:57:23.039 --> 00:57:27.320
<v Speaker 2>move and in Wisconsin in particular, it seems very clear

1098
00:57:27.639 --> 00:57:31.159
<v Speaker 2>that there was real movement at the end. You had

1099
00:57:31.800 --> 00:57:34.800
<v Speaker 2>like in that the state Navigate did a poll that

1100
00:57:34.920 --> 00:57:37.679
<v Speaker 2>was like five days out that ended up being quite wrong.

1101
00:57:37.719 --> 00:57:39.840
<v Speaker 2>But in that poll, so you had nine percent of

1102
00:57:39.920 --> 00:57:43.559
<v Speaker 2>undecided voters. All those voters seemed to have gone to Crowley.

1103
00:57:43.760 --> 00:57:45.719
<v Speaker 2>You had a bunch of other candidates in the field,

1104
00:57:46.280 --> 00:57:49.480
<v Speaker 2>who's including two in Mandela Bars and Sara Driguez, who

1105
00:57:49.480 --> 00:57:52.519
<v Speaker 2>had dropped out of the race, and they had supporters,

1106
00:57:52.679 --> 00:57:56.440
<v Speaker 2>and some of those supporters went to David Crowley. And

1107
00:57:56.480 --> 00:57:57.760
<v Speaker 2>so what poll like we.

1108
00:57:57.639 --> 00:58:01.400
<v Speaker 3>Had set polls, she hit her. Francesco Hung was basically

1109
00:58:01.440 --> 00:58:04.000
<v Speaker 3>pulling around forty percent, which is what she got.

1110
00:58:04.840 --> 00:58:06.360
<v Speaker 2>Like in some of these polls she was over she

1111
00:58:06.400 --> 00:58:08.000
<v Speaker 2>was four or five points over forty. But yes, it

1112
00:58:08.039 --> 00:58:12.119
<v Speaker 2>basically got her within a reasonable polling error. Right, they

1113
00:58:12.159 --> 00:58:15.639
<v Speaker 2>got her number. And what happened is everything else moved

1114
00:58:15.880 --> 00:58:19.800
<v Speaker 2>towards Crowley and and he like he had momentum, she

1115
00:58:19.880 --> 00:58:22.840
<v Speaker 2>was struggling down the stretch. He spent four million dollars

1116
00:58:22.880 --> 00:58:24.960
<v Speaker 2>like in the last week, couple week, ten days or

1117
00:58:24.960 --> 00:58:28.000
<v Speaker 2>so on broadcast in linear television, which I think made

1118
00:58:28.039 --> 00:58:31.480
<v Speaker 2>a huge difference. And so we have to remember that

1119
00:58:31.480 --> 00:58:34.159
<v Speaker 2>people changed their minds, vote undecided voters to side, and

1120
00:58:34.199 --> 00:58:37.000
<v Speaker 2>that is what affects the final margin, and that it's

1121
00:58:37.039 --> 00:58:39.519
<v Speaker 2>a certainly a huge factor in what happened, at least

1122
00:58:39.519 --> 00:58:41.599
<v Speaker 2>in Wisconsin, probably to some extent in Michigan as well.

1123
00:58:41.719 --> 00:58:45.679
<v Speaker 3>Minnesota's a little more confusing to me because in that one,

1124
00:58:46.400 --> 00:58:49.159
<v Speaker 3>the polls towards the end showed it kind of close,

1125
00:58:49.679 --> 00:58:52.519
<v Speaker 3>and then instead Penny Flap Peggy Flann again. The more

1126
00:58:52.559 --> 00:58:56.440
<v Speaker 3>progressive candidate won by twenty points, So they underestimated the

1127
00:58:56.440 --> 00:58:58.119
<v Speaker 3>more progressive candidate in Minnesota.

1128
00:58:58.239 --> 00:58:59.559
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, those poles might just been wrong.

1129
00:58:59.639 --> 00:59:01.320
<v Speaker 3>It just goes to show you I think that, like

1130
00:59:02.639 --> 00:59:05.159
<v Speaker 3>it's a number of different factors, and it's like I

1131
00:59:05.159 --> 00:59:08.039
<v Speaker 3>wouldn't think to ourselves as we go into the midterms,

1132
00:59:08.039 --> 00:59:10.199
<v Speaker 3>and you tell me if I'm wrong that, like, oh no,

1133
00:59:10.280 --> 00:59:13.280
<v Speaker 3>they're always gonna over sample younger voters and the polls

1134
00:59:13.280 --> 00:59:14.920
<v Speaker 3>are all going to be off. Because that didn't happen

1135
00:59:14.920 --> 00:59:16.960
<v Speaker 3>in Minnesota, it hasn't happened in other places.

1136
00:59:17.199 --> 00:59:19.559
<v Speaker 2>It's possible. It's also worth remembering that in twenty twenty

1137
00:59:19.639 --> 00:59:23.800
<v Speaker 2>five they polls in New Jersey and Virginia were off.

1138
00:59:24.119 --> 00:59:26.159
<v Speaker 2>They were very far off in New Jersey, and they

1139
00:59:26.320 --> 00:59:30.719
<v Speaker 2>undersampled Democrats in that case or over simple Republicans. And

1140
00:59:30.760 --> 00:59:34.000
<v Speaker 2>it's going to be interesting. This is the I mean,

1141
00:59:34.000 --> 00:59:38.880
<v Speaker 2>we're getting super nerdy here, but they're in. They were

1142
00:59:38.880 --> 00:59:41.440
<v Speaker 2>wrong in sixteen, the polls were right in twenty eighteen.

1143
00:59:41.480 --> 00:59:43.800
<v Speaker 2>Twenty eighteen perhaved like a normal midterm because all these

1144
00:59:43.800 --> 00:59:46.440
<v Speaker 2>low engaged Trump voters did not turn out in that one.

1145
00:59:46.840 --> 00:59:49.599
<v Speaker 2>Twenty twenty, they were incredibly wrong twenty twenty two, they

1146
00:59:49.599 --> 00:59:51.599
<v Speaker 2>were actually quite right. Every No one believes that because

1147
00:59:51.639 --> 00:59:53.559
<v Speaker 2>everyone thought the red wave was coming, but the poles

1148
00:59:53.559 --> 00:59:57.559
<v Speaker 2>were historically accurate in that race. And then in twenty

1149
00:59:57.599 --> 01:00:01.360
<v Speaker 2>twenty four the polls were right again. But the pollsters

1150
01:00:01.400 --> 01:00:03.440
<v Speaker 2>for the most part. There are some exceptions, and Nate

1151
01:00:03.480 --> 01:00:06.239
<v Speaker 2>Cone of The Times included, but they took us basically

1152
01:00:06.320 --> 01:00:11.119
<v Speaker 2>like a statistical sledgehammer to jam more Trump voters into

1153
01:00:11.119 --> 01:00:14.480
<v Speaker 2>the polls, which worked. How they're going to factor in

1154
01:00:15.159 --> 01:00:18.000
<v Speaker 2>and model Republican turnout in this election, and how they're

1155
01:00:18.039 --> 01:00:20.239
<v Speaker 2>going to try to accommodate, like what the what is

1156
01:00:20.280 --> 01:00:23.039
<v Speaker 2>the baseline? Are you? If you do it? What are

1157
01:00:23.079 --> 01:00:25.119
<v Speaker 2>you waiting? They waited basically in twenty twenty four, they

1158
01:00:25.119 --> 01:00:29.039
<v Speaker 2>waited the poll to the twenty twenty vote share. I

1159
01:00:29.039 --> 01:00:30.320
<v Speaker 2>don't know how they're going to do this here. It's

1160
01:00:30.320 --> 01:00:31.480
<v Speaker 2>going to be very interesting to say.

1161
01:00:31.599 --> 01:00:33.599
<v Speaker 3>I should probably bring this up since it's sort of

1162
01:00:33.719 --> 01:00:37.840
<v Speaker 3>breaking here as we're talking. But Fox News at least

1163
01:00:37.880 --> 01:00:43.199
<v Speaker 3>two Senate polls Michigan Mike Rogers fifty one, Abdul forty

1164
01:00:43.199 --> 01:00:48.360
<v Speaker 3>seven and then shared in Ohio is up by the

1165
01:00:48.400 --> 01:00:51.800
<v Speaker 3>same as he was last time, which is fifty three

1166
01:00:52.559 --> 01:00:57.360
<v Speaker 3>forty five. I don't know if I buy either of those.

1167
01:00:58.159 --> 01:00:58.440
<v Speaker 5>Truth.

1168
01:00:59.039 --> 01:01:01.719
<v Speaker 2>I mean, shared Brown is not winning Ohio by eight,

1169
01:01:01.800 --> 01:01:05.280
<v Speaker 2>that be that that'd be a nineteen point over performance

1170
01:01:05.639 --> 01:01:06.039
<v Speaker 2>twenty four.

1171
01:01:06.119 --> 01:01:08.000
<v Speaker 3>That to me seems further off than.

1172
01:01:07.880 --> 01:01:11.360
<v Speaker 2>The Yeah, I would say that both of those races

1173
01:01:11.480 --> 01:01:15.760
<v Speaker 2>end up being closer, closer, and like two point races.

1174
01:01:15.760 --> 01:01:17.719
<v Speaker 2>I think there's a world where Abduel could win by

1175
01:01:17.880 --> 01:01:20.119
<v Speaker 2>four or five. I find it highly unlikely that Mike

1176
01:01:20.199 --> 01:01:23.920
<v Speaker 2>Rodgers could win by that much. Yeah, but I think

1177
01:01:23.960 --> 01:01:26.000
<v Speaker 2>there's work for Abduel to do. I think he has

1178
01:01:26.039 --> 01:01:29.519
<v Speaker 2>real work to do. And it's like he in all

1179
01:01:29.559 --> 01:01:31.400
<v Speaker 2>of the polling, even the once it showed him doing

1180
01:01:31.440 --> 01:01:37.000
<v Speaker 2>the same as Haley Stevens against Mike Rodgers, he was

1181
01:01:37.079 --> 01:01:41.559
<v Speaker 2>dramatically underperforming. The political environment, it should be this is Michigan,

1182
01:01:41.599 --> 01:01:43.920
<v Speaker 2>it's fifty to fifty state. It should be he should

1183
01:01:43.920 --> 01:01:45.800
<v Speaker 2>be starting with six points in his pocket.

1184
01:01:45.559 --> 01:01:49.280
<v Speaker 3>Right, because yeah, because so everyone knows, even though Michigan's close,

1185
01:01:49.320 --> 01:01:52.320
<v Speaker 3>if the national environment is six points more favorable to

1186
01:01:52.360 --> 01:01:54.639
<v Speaker 3>Democrats than it was in twenty twenty four, then yeah,

1187
01:01:54.679 --> 01:01:58.440
<v Speaker 3>that's how you get that. Speaking of election forecasts, that

1188
01:01:58.519 --> 01:02:02.159
<v Speaker 3>promise one hundred percent accurate. Nate Silver dropped his midterm

1189
01:02:02.159 --> 01:02:05.880
<v Speaker 3>model this week, called Forecast with Leading Indicators, Polls and

1190
01:02:05.960 --> 01:02:09.760
<v Speaker 3>expert ratings or Flipper for sure, you want to call

1191
01:02:09.800 --> 01:02:13.599
<v Speaker 3>it flipper. So Nate's forecasts have historically been closer to

1192
01:02:13.639 --> 01:02:16.119
<v Speaker 3>the mark than I think most other models. He's not

1193
01:02:16.199 --> 01:02:19.880
<v Speaker 3>known as someone who's who's biased towards Democrats or Republicans

1194
01:02:19.559 --> 01:02:22.679
<v Speaker 3>in his modeling, but it is notable that he gives

1195
01:02:22.719 --> 01:02:25.159
<v Speaker 3>Democrats as of this recording, an eighty six point one

1196
01:02:25.199 --> 01:02:28.440
<v Speaker 3>percent chance of winning the House, and I said, as

1197
01:02:28.440 --> 01:02:30.719
<v Speaker 3>of this recording, fifty six percent chance of winning the Senate.

1198
01:02:30.760 --> 01:02:33.679
<v Speaker 3>But I bet once he throws in that Michigan poll

1199
01:02:33.719 --> 01:02:34.800
<v Speaker 3>that might go down a little bit.

1200
01:02:34.840 --> 01:02:35.199
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

1201
01:02:35.280 --> 01:02:37.039
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, the Fox is an a rated poll, and so

1202
01:02:37.119 --> 01:02:38.239
<v Speaker 2>that will that will bring that down.

1203
01:02:38.440 --> 01:02:40.360
<v Speaker 3>Yeah. And since it just came out, I'm sure he

1204
01:02:40.360 --> 01:02:42.360
<v Speaker 3>hasn't updated it yet, but by the time you listen

1205
01:02:42.440 --> 01:02:45.000
<v Speaker 3>to this, it will be updated. What do you think

1206
01:02:45.039 --> 01:02:49.000
<v Speaker 3>of Nate's forecast and what should people know about what

1207
01:02:49.039 --> 01:02:51.360
<v Speaker 3>goes into that besides just polling, because I think some

1208
01:02:51.360 --> 01:02:55.639
<v Speaker 3>people probably just assume that it's a polling aggregator where

1209
01:02:55.679 --> 01:02:57.639
<v Speaker 3>you're just throwing a bunch of polls together and averaging

1210
01:02:57.679 --> 01:02:58.360
<v Speaker 3>them out, which it's not.

1211
01:02:58.480 --> 01:02:58.760
<v Speaker 1>Yes.

1212
01:02:59.079 --> 01:03:02.719
<v Speaker 2>For a long time, the real clear politics pulling average

1213
01:03:02.760 --> 01:03:04.800
<v Speaker 2>was what everyone followed, and that really was just math

1214
01:03:04.800 --> 01:03:06.440
<v Speaker 2>where they added all the polls together and then divided

1215
01:03:06.480 --> 01:03:08.320
<v Speaker 2>by the number of polls at the average as if

1216
01:03:08.519 --> 01:03:12.199
<v Speaker 2>they were in fifth grade math. What Nate does in

1217
01:03:12.239 --> 01:03:14.960
<v Speaker 2>others like Laksha Jane do that's much more complicated, is

1218
01:03:14.960 --> 01:03:19.760
<v Speaker 2>they build a statistical model that takes in pulling. They

1219
01:03:19.800 --> 01:03:22.880
<v Speaker 2>then Nate at least waits the polsters based on quality

1220
01:03:22.920 --> 01:03:25.760
<v Speaker 2>of the poll he actually has in the past. I

1221
01:03:25.760 --> 01:03:26.840
<v Speaker 2>don't know if he's doing this in the case is

1222
01:03:26.920 --> 01:03:29.519
<v Speaker 2>established what it calls a house bias that some polsters

1223
01:03:29.559 --> 01:03:31.880
<v Speaker 2>over time are tend to be more democratic or more Republican,

1224
01:03:31.920 --> 01:03:35.119
<v Speaker 2>and then he will factor in that house bias into it.

1225
01:03:35.239 --> 01:03:39.039
<v Speaker 2>He will also includes fundamentals like how much money the

1226
01:03:39.079 --> 01:03:42.440
<v Speaker 2>campaigns of the campaigns have raised, the larger political environment,

1227
01:03:42.840 --> 01:03:46.880
<v Speaker 2>there is a benefit to incumbency in these races, and

1228
01:03:46.960 --> 01:03:49.119
<v Speaker 2>fits that in. And then this time, actually he has

1229
01:03:49.159 --> 01:03:52.000
<v Speaker 2>three versions of his model. The deluxe model if you

1230
01:03:52.039 --> 01:03:56.199
<v Speaker 2>will actually factors in the expert ratings from like Political

1231
01:03:56.239 --> 01:04:00.159
<v Speaker 2>Report and others. It's you know, it's you know, it's

1232
01:04:00.199 --> 01:04:04.000
<v Speaker 2>interesting too if you read his methodology page, because the

1233
01:04:04.039 --> 01:04:07.400
<v Speaker 2>poles have been so wrong. He's overweighting towards fundamentals this time,

1234
01:04:07.760 --> 01:04:09.639
<v Speaker 2>or he's been putting that overight, he's putting more weight

1235
01:04:09.679 --> 01:04:12.239
<v Speaker 2>on fundamentals than he has in the past. Interesting, which

1236
01:04:12.280 --> 01:04:14.599
<v Speaker 2>is which is interesting, And I'm gonna be very, very

1237
01:04:14.639 --> 01:04:17.480
<v Speaker 2>interested to see what the Michigan pole, which by the

1238
01:04:17.519 --> 01:04:18.800
<v Speaker 2>time you guys are listening to this, you may be

1239
01:04:18.840 --> 01:04:21.719
<v Speaker 2>able to go to his site and check it out.

1240
01:04:21.760 --> 01:04:25.920
<v Speaker 2>But how that changes it? Because if I recall correctly,

1241
01:04:27.599 --> 01:04:29.199
<v Speaker 2>I think maybe this was lectual Jane, but I don't

1242
01:04:29.239 --> 01:04:32.280
<v Speaker 2>want to I don't want to smear him with in

1243
01:04:32.280 --> 01:04:34.880
<v Speaker 2>cases it was an incorrect take. But basically some in

1244
01:04:34.960 --> 01:04:37.679
<v Speaker 2>some people's model that if Democrat Democrats chances of winning

1245
01:04:37.719 --> 01:04:40.039
<v Speaker 2>the how the Senate are, you know, let's say they're

1246
01:04:40.039 --> 01:04:43.000
<v Speaker 2>fifty seven or whatever it is, If they lose Michigan,

1247
01:04:43.000 --> 01:04:46.559
<v Speaker 2>that number drops into the like the thirties. Yeah, So

1248
01:04:46.639 --> 01:04:50.599
<v Speaker 2>that if Michigan, Michigan is a you really need Michigan

1249
01:04:50.639 --> 01:04:52.199
<v Speaker 2>to take the Senate and if and if we are

1250
01:04:52.800 --> 01:04:56.360
<v Speaker 2>a poll that shows us losing Michigan badly will probably

1251
01:04:56.480 --> 01:04:59.679
<v Speaker 2>move move the Senate forecasts a little.

1252
01:04:59.440 --> 01:05:01.320
<v Speaker 3>Bit at least, So think the Senate forecast started even

1253
01:05:01.360 --> 01:05:03.000
<v Speaker 3>higher than fifty six percent and it went down to

1254
01:05:03.039 --> 01:05:06.840
<v Speaker 3>fifty six today because Yeah, there was an Emerson poll

1255
01:05:07.239 --> 01:05:09.840
<v Speaker 3>that showed tell Errico down one in Texas.

1256
01:05:10.159 --> 01:05:12.079
<v Speaker 2>I'll tell you what, though, that poll shows Tillerco is

1257
01:05:12.079 --> 01:05:14.440
<v Speaker 2>seventy percent of the black vote. And if he is

1258
01:05:14.440 --> 01:05:16.320
<v Speaker 2>down one with seventy percent of the black vote in Texas,

1259
01:05:16.360 --> 01:05:19.159
<v Speaker 2>then he is going to be He's going to win

1260
01:05:19.199 --> 01:05:20.880
<v Speaker 2>by fairmount, which I think that I think that is

1261
01:05:20.880 --> 01:05:24.559
<v Speaker 2>a that they probably not enough voter staff shuld have it,

1262
01:05:24.639 --> 01:05:26.119
<v Speaker 2>but he's that he's going to get a lot more

1263
01:05:26.119 --> 01:05:27.239
<v Speaker 2>than seventy percent of black voote.

1264
01:05:27.440 --> 01:05:31.119
<v Speaker 3>Now, we're not in the prediction business, and you know

1265
01:05:31.159 --> 01:05:32.840
<v Speaker 3>we always warn you about these things, So what good

1266
01:05:32.880 --> 01:05:35.679
<v Speaker 3>is an election forecast for all of you? I do

1267
01:05:35.719 --> 01:05:38.519
<v Speaker 3>think that one of the more interesting parts of Nate's

1268
01:05:39.000 --> 01:05:42.079
<v Speaker 3>forecast Nates model is in for the house races, they

1269
01:05:42.159 --> 01:05:45.599
<v Speaker 3>show you, like what are the closest house races in

1270
01:05:45.599 --> 01:05:48.400
<v Speaker 3>the country, and that can like that list can update.

1271
01:05:48.840 --> 01:05:51.199
<v Speaker 3>And I think if you're you know, if you want

1272
01:05:51.199 --> 01:05:53.960
<v Speaker 3>to volunteer, if you want to donate money. It is

1273
01:05:54.039 --> 01:05:56.800
<v Speaker 3>kind of helpful to look and see the closest house races,

1274
01:05:56.840 --> 01:05:59.280
<v Speaker 3>the closest Senate races, and then you know, you go

1275
01:05:59.360 --> 01:06:03.840
<v Speaker 3>to Voteviamerica and we can make sure you're connected with

1276
01:06:04.440 --> 01:06:06.079
<v Speaker 3>the right people so you can have something to do

1277
01:06:06.159 --> 01:06:09.079
<v Speaker 3>in someplace to donate. So I do think, I do

1278
01:06:09.159 --> 01:06:12.000
<v Speaker 3>think that is very helpful to have, like what races

1279
01:06:12.000 --> 01:06:14.320
<v Speaker 3>are the closest to kind of see it updating over time.

1280
01:06:15.039 --> 01:06:17.679
<v Speaker 2>It is emotional management for most people. They're going to

1281
01:06:17.920 --> 01:06:21.440
<v Speaker 2>live and die with several point drops in the forecast.

1282
01:06:21.599 --> 01:06:25.159
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, yeah, don't do that because it's it's gonna be

1283
01:06:25.239 --> 01:06:28.760
<v Speaker 3>quite a polar coaster if you will. Yeah, Now until November,

1284
01:06:28.920 --> 01:06:31.079
<v Speaker 3>all right, last thing before we go. White House Press

1285
01:06:31.079 --> 01:06:33.599
<v Speaker 3>Secretary Caroline love It announced on Wednesday that she's leaving

1286
01:06:33.639 --> 01:06:35.920
<v Speaker 3>her post at the end of the month to quote

1287
01:06:35.920 --> 01:06:37.960
<v Speaker 3>embark on a new chapter and spend more time with

1288
01:06:38.000 --> 01:06:40.800
<v Speaker 3>her kids. She will of course be missed, and his

1289
01:06:40.960 --> 01:06:44.159
<v Speaker 3>former White House comm staffers. We thought it only fitting

1290
01:06:44.719 --> 01:06:47.599
<v Speaker 3>to say farewell with a tribute to some of her

1291
01:06:47.599 --> 01:06:48.440
<v Speaker 3>finest moments.

1292
01:06:48.599 --> 01:06:49.559
<v Speaker 2>He's become a star.

1293
01:06:50.119 --> 01:06:53.119
<v Speaker 3>It's that face, it's that brain, it's those lips, the

1294
01:06:53.239 --> 01:06:56.000
<v Speaker 3>whey they move, they move like she's a machine gun.

1295
01:06:56.519 --> 01:06:59.719
<v Speaker 4>Hatred has no place in the United States of America

1296
01:07:00.079 --> 01:07:03.159
<v Speaker 4>under President Donald Trump. The President's face wanted to add

1297
01:07:03.239 --> 01:07:05.599
<v Speaker 4>about a number of times with bandages on his hands,

1298
01:07:05.800 --> 01:07:07.000
<v Speaker 4>do thus explain.

1299
01:07:06.639 --> 01:07:07.440
<v Speaker 3>What that is about?

1300
01:07:07.599 --> 01:07:09.840
<v Speaker 4>The President is literally.

1301
01:07:09.360 --> 01:07:10.679
<v Speaker 5>Constantly shaking hands.

1302
01:07:10.880 --> 01:07:14.039
<v Speaker 4>Why was Renee Good unfortunately and tragically killed?

1303
01:07:14.920 --> 01:07:17.920
<v Speaker 2>Are you're asking me because a night shaped and doctor

1304
01:07:18.039 --> 01:07:19.559
<v Speaker 2>recously and kills its fire.

1305
01:07:19.679 --> 01:07:22.119
<v Speaker 4>Oh okay, so you're a biased reporter with a left

1306
01:07:22.119 --> 01:07:22.719
<v Speaker 4>wing opinion.

1307
01:07:22.800 --> 01:07:23.519
<v Speaker 2>What are you wanting to do?

1308
01:07:23.800 --> 01:07:26.599
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, because you're a left wing hacked The President have

1309
01:07:26.719 --> 01:07:29.480
<v Speaker 4>a feeling again based on fact that Iran was going

1310
01:07:29.519 --> 01:07:31.599
<v Speaker 4>to strike the United States, was going to strike our

1311
01:07:31.639 --> 01:07:34.079
<v Speaker 4>assets in the region. At this moment in time, of course,

1312
01:07:34.159 --> 01:07:37.719
<v Speaker 4>the ballroom is really the president's main priority. He believes

1313
01:07:37.760 --> 01:07:41.000
<v Speaker 4>that Canadians would benefit greatly from becoming the fifty first

1314
01:07:41.000 --> 01:07:44.239
<v Speaker 4>state of the United States of America. It's well past

1315
01:07:44.280 --> 01:07:47.239
<v Speaker 4>time that President Trump was awarded the Noble Peace Prize,

1316
01:07:47.320 --> 01:07:47.800
<v Speaker 4>because it.

1317
01:07:47.719 --> 01:07:51.159
<v Speaker 2>Was twenty eleven when Barack Obama and Seth Meyer said

1318
01:07:51.159 --> 01:07:54.239
<v Speaker 2>you'll never be president Bay Bob. Here we are with

1319
01:07:54.360 --> 01:07:57.239
<v Speaker 2>presidents from going on stage as a two term president

1320
01:07:57.320 --> 01:07:58.119
<v Speaker 2>for the first time.

1321
01:07:58.280 --> 01:08:01.480
<v Speaker 5>This piece tonight will be classic Donald J.

1322
01:08:01.559 --> 01:08:04.159
<v Speaker 2>Trump. It'll be funny, it'll be entertaining.

1323
01:08:04.519 --> 01:08:06.760
<v Speaker 4>There will be some shots fired tonight.

1324
01:08:07.760 --> 01:08:12.199
<v Speaker 3>Very you know, just North Korean propaganda through and through.

1325
01:08:12.599 --> 01:08:14.320
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's dead, Bob, you will.

1326
01:08:15.360 --> 01:08:18.680
<v Speaker 3>I love the He does believe that Canadians will benefit

1327
01:08:18.720 --> 01:08:22.239
<v Speaker 3>from being the first fifty first state, said with the straight.

1328
01:08:22.000 --> 01:08:24.199
<v Speaker 2>Face, which was a thing that actually happened in the

1329
01:08:24.279 --> 01:08:25.039
<v Speaker 2>yak in politics.

1330
01:08:25.079 --> 01:08:26.479
<v Speaker 3>Well, kudos to her for saying that all with the

1331
01:08:26.520 --> 01:08:29.720
<v Speaker 3>straight face. As for who might replace Levitt at the podium,

1332
01:08:30.279 --> 01:08:33.680
<v Speaker 3>names are already being floated all across the Magamedia ecosystem.

1333
01:08:33.760 --> 01:08:36.479
<v Speaker 3>Lots of exciting possibilities and it's a wide open field.

1334
01:08:37.119 --> 01:08:40.039
<v Speaker 3>So each of us, without sharing with each other yet,

1335
01:08:40.119 --> 01:08:44.520
<v Speaker 3>has ranked our top five most likely picks. So why

1336
01:08:44.560 --> 01:08:47.239
<v Speaker 3>don't we we I think we should each go five

1337
01:08:47.439 --> 01:08:49.479
<v Speaker 3>five four four three three.

1338
01:08:49.640 --> 01:08:51.640
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that's that's what I was hoping for. Okay, they

1339
01:08:51.640 --> 01:08:53.199
<v Speaker 2>really kind of missed up the punch line of mine,

1340
01:08:53.199 --> 01:08:54.359
<v Speaker 2>But we'll do it this way.

1341
01:08:54.439 --> 01:08:56.399
<v Speaker 3>Okay, that's fine. You want to go for who's you?

1342
01:08:56.399 --> 01:08:58.439
<v Speaker 3>Who's your number five? Who's your number number five?

1343
01:08:58.800 --> 01:09:00.720
<v Speaker 2>Is Marco Rubi out? Yeah?

1344
01:09:02.720 --> 01:09:05.920
<v Speaker 3>That's funny. That's funny. I already saw some of the

1345
01:09:06.000 --> 01:09:08.159
<v Speaker 3>Rubio on the couch memes where he's got a blonde

1346
01:09:08.159 --> 01:09:10.319
<v Speaker 3>way gone. So yeah, yeah, interesting.

1347
01:09:10.399 --> 01:09:12.159
<v Speaker 2>I use this my number five.

1348
01:09:13.279 --> 01:09:13.880
<v Speaker 3>Erica Kirk.

1349
01:09:15.279 --> 01:09:17.479
<v Speaker 2>Now that is an interesting suggestion.

1350
01:09:18.239 --> 01:09:20.279
<v Speaker 3>You think it's crazy, but you're like, wait a minute,

1351
01:09:20.479 --> 01:09:23.760
<v Speaker 3>she's you know, she she does a lot of public speaking.

1352
01:09:24.800 --> 01:09:27.760
<v Speaker 3>Big f you know, big favorite of the maga world.

1353
01:09:27.960 --> 01:09:30.079
<v Speaker 3>Who knows number number four?

1354
01:09:30.760 --> 01:09:33.359
<v Speaker 2>So before I gave number four, I would like to

1355
01:09:33.760 --> 01:09:36.359
<v Speaker 2>just point out my thinking here, which is Donald Trump

1356
01:09:36.359 --> 01:09:39.399
<v Speaker 2>has had five pres secretaries. Can you name all five?

1357
01:09:40.359 --> 01:09:41.880
<v Speaker 3>Wow? Oh, because we have to go back to the

1358
01:09:41.880 --> 01:09:51.159
<v Speaker 3>first term. Huh yeah, Sean Spicer, Katie mcahoney yep. Oh uh,

1359
01:09:51.199 --> 01:09:55.119
<v Speaker 3>what's his name? Scaramuci number press secretary? He wasn't for

1360
01:09:55.199 --> 01:09:57.960
<v Speaker 3>fourteen days communication structure. Oh he didn't step in for

1361
01:09:58.000 --> 01:10:03.760
<v Speaker 3>the Oh yeah, some Brie, Sarah Hockey Sanders yep, Caroline.

1362
01:10:04.800 --> 01:10:06.840
<v Speaker 3>And so now I'm just one. I have one right

1363
01:10:06.880 --> 01:10:07.479
<v Speaker 3>that I'm missing.

1364
01:10:07.760 --> 01:10:08.560
<v Speaker 2>Stephanie Grisham.

1365
01:10:08.760 --> 01:10:12.159
<v Speaker 3>Oh, Stephanie Grisham, Yes, okay, okay.

1366
01:10:11.960 --> 01:10:15.159
<v Speaker 2>So five press secretaries, the last four have been women.

1367
01:10:15.359 --> 01:10:15.760
<v Speaker 1>M hmm.

1368
01:10:16.359 --> 01:10:17.880
<v Speaker 2>I don't think Doan Trump's gonna pick a man.

1369
01:10:18.279 --> 01:10:21.920
<v Speaker 3>I don't either, So my number four is although I

1370
01:10:21.920 --> 01:10:23.640
<v Speaker 3>have one, I have one man on my list.

1371
01:10:23.439 --> 01:10:26.760
<v Speaker 2>But I did too, obviously, But my number four is

1372
01:10:26.840 --> 01:10:29.079
<v Speaker 2>Anna Kelly, who's currently the Deputy Press Secretary.

1373
01:10:29.399 --> 01:10:31.640
<v Speaker 3>You know, I keep seeing that around, but it's like,

1374
01:10:35.319 --> 01:10:37.039
<v Speaker 3>I feel like he always wants to go for someone

1375
01:10:37.079 --> 01:10:39.800
<v Speaker 3>who has been on TV a bunch.

1376
01:10:40.239 --> 01:10:42.880
<v Speaker 2>He's also lazy, so yeah, that's true. Is a man

1377
01:10:42.920 --> 01:10:45.039
<v Speaker 2>so lazy wouldn't even pick a new national security advisor?

1378
01:10:45.239 --> 01:10:46.319
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's true.

1379
01:10:46.359 --> 01:10:48.000
<v Speaker 2>That would be the that's the lazy rot. I don't

1380
01:10:48.000 --> 01:10:49.520
<v Speaker 2>think it's obviously what I'm not what I think is

1381
01:10:49.560 --> 01:10:50.960
<v Speaker 2>most likely, but I think it's on the table.

1382
01:10:51.279 --> 01:10:56.960
<v Speaker 3>My number four is my favorite in yours Trisha McLoughlin.

1383
01:10:57.840 --> 01:11:01.119
<v Speaker 2>Oh god, that's that's definitely not happening. But that is

1384
01:11:01.159 --> 01:11:03.079
<v Speaker 2>a good suggestion for content purposes.

1385
01:11:03.720 --> 01:11:06.239
<v Speaker 3>You don't think it's I think, well, I did read

1386
01:11:06.279 --> 01:11:08.640
<v Speaker 3>somewhere that she might be pregnant, so that would be

1387
01:11:08.680 --> 01:11:11.920
<v Speaker 3>tricky at least if it's happening soon. I don't know

1388
01:11:11.920 --> 01:11:14.319
<v Speaker 3>how pregnant she is or what, but like, but I

1389
01:11:14.319 --> 01:11:17.319
<v Speaker 3>could see, I mean, she was clearly auditioning for White

1390
01:11:17.319 --> 01:11:19.960
<v Speaker 3>House Press Secretary her entire time at DHS and she

1391
01:11:20.000 --> 01:11:21.439
<v Speaker 3>has not taken a new job yet.

1392
01:11:21.680 --> 01:11:24.399
<v Speaker 2>Okay, look at it is on the table, all right,

1393
01:11:24.439 --> 01:11:26.920
<v Speaker 2>what's my number number three? Carry Lake?

1394
01:11:28.319 --> 01:11:31.319
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, Carrie Lake is it's a possibility.

1395
01:11:31.840 --> 01:11:32.640
<v Speaker 2>Trump loves her.

1396
01:11:32.840 --> 01:11:34.760
<v Speaker 3>Trump loves She's a loyalist, she is.

1397
01:11:34.840 --> 01:11:37.560
<v Speaker 2>She's crazy, she'll fight with the press, which is what

1398
01:11:37.600 --> 01:11:40.800
<v Speaker 2>he cares about most. She's very she's a former reporter.

1399
01:11:41.199 --> 01:11:45.000
<v Speaker 2>She's good on TV in a Trumpian way. She's good on.

1400
01:11:44.960 --> 01:11:50.199
<v Speaker 3>TV, right right, Yeah, I thought about her and I

1401
01:11:50.239 --> 01:11:55.520
<v Speaker 3>was like, she you know, Trump likes his spokespeople like young,

1402
01:11:55.800 --> 01:11:57.239
<v Speaker 3>like Fox News anchors.

1403
01:11:57.560 --> 01:11:59.800
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's this would be the thing that yeah.

1404
01:12:00.039 --> 01:12:02.800
<v Speaker 3>Well then my number three, same thing that is a

1405
01:12:02.800 --> 01:12:06.119
<v Speaker 3>departure from this, which is Scott Jennings.

1406
01:12:06.119 --> 01:12:08.600
<v Speaker 2>Interesting. See I was thought about scot Chennkings, and then

1407
01:12:08.600 --> 01:12:09.800
<v Speaker 2>I went with my whole man thing, and then I

1408
01:12:09.840 --> 01:12:12.359
<v Speaker 2>had to do a very cheesy and funny rubeo joke.

1409
01:12:12.439 --> 01:12:14.359
<v Speaker 3>I would not put the money on Scott Jennings, but

1410
01:12:14.479 --> 01:12:15.760
<v Speaker 3>I put them on my list because.

1411
01:12:15.520 --> 01:12:18.119
<v Speaker 2>Because we are emitting all of these on Calshi right, yes, of.

1412
01:12:18.119 --> 01:12:20.199
<v Speaker 3>Course, yes, obviously, as we do with everything.

1413
01:12:20.239 --> 01:12:23.079
<v Speaker 2>Okay, my number two, Katie Miller.

1414
01:12:24.159 --> 01:12:26.680
<v Speaker 3>So I was going to have Katie Miller on there.

1415
01:12:26.680 --> 01:12:28.520
<v Speaker 3>And then I of course did some research for this segment,

1416
01:12:28.600 --> 01:12:30.800
<v Speaker 3>and in one of the Politico stories about the search,

1417
01:12:31.319 --> 01:12:34.359
<v Speaker 3>a source close to Miller said, not happening, Absolutely not.

1418
01:12:34.399 --> 01:12:36.880
<v Speaker 2>It's exactly that's Miller's word.

1419
01:12:37.000 --> 01:12:44.680
<v Speaker 3>Yes, maybe what was she She has a wildly successful podcast.

1420
01:12:44.960 --> 01:12:45.600
<v Speaker 3>What was she going to be?

1421
01:12:45.920 --> 01:12:47.720
<v Speaker 2>Just do the podcast in the briefing room.

1422
01:12:48.079 --> 01:12:49.319
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's probably probably good.

1423
01:12:49.520 --> 01:12:51.760
<v Speaker 2>She likes attention. She's very combative.

1424
01:12:52.560 --> 01:12:54.920
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean Shewett, Yeah, I could see it. Yeah,

1425
01:12:56.039 --> 01:13:00.239
<v Speaker 3>I have isn't my number two? No? One just doesn't

1426
01:13:00.239 --> 01:13:03.840
<v Speaker 3>fill the role, continues to have a bunch of dipshits

1427
01:13:04.920 --> 01:13:08.680
<v Speaker 3>jump into the briefing room once in a while and says,

1428
01:13:08.880 --> 01:13:10.439
<v Speaker 3>fuck it, I don't even want the press. I don't

1429
01:13:10.439 --> 01:13:12.960
<v Speaker 3>I want to deal with that. I'm he's the press secretary. Yeah.

1430
01:13:13.039 --> 01:13:14.640
<v Speaker 2>I thought about putting that on my list too, and

1431
01:13:14.680 --> 01:13:17.600
<v Speaker 2>then I thought that was maybe like a little a

1432
01:13:17.600 --> 01:13:19.359
<v Speaker 2>little too trying too hard for a viral cliff.

1433
01:13:19.359 --> 01:13:21.359
<v Speaker 3>If you will what that that?

1434
01:13:21.520 --> 01:13:23.840
<v Speaker 2>No wonder if I said Trump, if I I number

1435
01:13:23.840 --> 01:13:27.399
<v Speaker 2>one choices Donald Trump, that seems like a bit much. Yeah,

1436
01:13:27.399 --> 01:13:29.439
<v Speaker 2>I know that is I think he really cares about

1437
01:13:29.439 --> 01:13:29.840
<v Speaker 2>the briefing.

1438
01:13:30.199 --> 01:13:32.000
<v Speaker 3>M I to watch something.

1439
01:13:32.359 --> 01:13:34.560
<v Speaker 2>Watch what there? It is a lull in the Fox

1440
01:13:34.600 --> 01:13:38.039
<v Speaker 2>schedule during the day. I think I think he does

1441
01:13:38.039 --> 01:13:40.000
<v Speaker 2>not watch Will Kine. So usually he the briefing is

1442
01:13:40.079 --> 01:13:42.560
<v Speaker 2>during Willcane and so that solves that problem for him.

1443
01:13:42.600 --> 01:13:48.680
<v Speaker 3>Will Caine too dumb. Yeah, all right, number one, number one.

1444
01:13:49.119 --> 01:13:51.359
<v Speaker 2>This is a totally out of left field. It's a

1445
01:13:51.399 --> 01:13:55.159
<v Speaker 2>crazy choice. Rachel Campos Duffy.

1446
01:13:55.680 --> 01:14:01.680
<v Speaker 3>She's on Calshi. But she she she started it like

1447
01:14:02.000 --> 01:14:05.000
<v Speaker 3>forty Like I don't know how they've got there. It

1448
01:14:05.079 --> 01:14:07.000
<v Speaker 3>was I think it's like forty percent or something, and

1449
01:14:07.039 --> 01:14:08.920
<v Speaker 3>then she's like fallen down to less than one percent.

1450
01:14:09.119 --> 01:14:11.600
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think I'm not sure the people who are

1451
01:14:11.600 --> 01:14:13.640
<v Speaker 2>betting cash what we have to watch for us if

1452
01:14:13.640 --> 01:14:16.439
<v Speaker 2>all of a sudden there is a surge behind one person. Yeah,

1453
01:14:16.439 --> 01:14:18.319
<v Speaker 2>but that's what I think you could trust. Couty. She's

1454
01:14:18.319 --> 01:14:22.439
<v Speaker 2>a Fox News anchor. She is very she's a reality

1455
01:14:22.439 --> 01:14:28.319
<v Speaker 2>TV star. She's in the family. Yeah loyal. Trumpet likes

1456
01:14:28.319 --> 01:14:30.520
<v Speaker 2>her a lot. He talks about her a lot. Back

1457
01:14:30.560 --> 01:14:32.600
<v Speaker 2>when before Seohn Duffy was in the cabin that he

1458
01:14:32.680 --> 01:14:34.760
<v Speaker 2>used to tweet in truth about her all the time.

1459
01:14:36.119 --> 01:14:39.960
<v Speaker 3>Oh, I could see what she was on a splash. Yeah,

1460
01:14:40.039 --> 01:14:41.399
<v Speaker 3>I should have had I should have kept her on

1461
01:14:41.399 --> 01:14:45.960
<v Speaker 3>my list. I have Alena Habba, that's yeah. And I

1462
01:14:46.039 --> 01:14:47.720
<v Speaker 3>knew that she is the favorite right now.

1463
01:14:48.119 --> 01:14:50.199
<v Speaker 2>I knew in my soul you're gonna pick Alena Habber first,

1464
01:14:50.279 --> 01:14:52.680
<v Speaker 2>and so for content purposes, I took Alena Habba off

1465
01:14:52.720 --> 01:14:53.159
<v Speaker 2>my list.

1466
01:14:53.560 --> 01:14:55.560
<v Speaker 3>I know, I almost didn't want her first because I

1467
01:14:55.600 --> 01:14:57.920
<v Speaker 3>was like, I think it's it's it's more it's boring

1468
01:14:58.079 --> 01:14:59.920
<v Speaker 3>as the selection. But I actually think if we're just

1469
01:15:00.039 --> 01:15:02.800
<v Speaker 3>doing most likely I would put money on that.

1470
01:15:03.079 --> 01:15:04.920
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so you were trying you were taking this as

1471
01:15:04.960 --> 01:15:05.960
<v Speaker 2>a serious game.

1472
01:15:05.880 --> 01:15:07.760
<v Speaker 3>Yeah of course, yeah, okay, just like I did. I

1473
01:15:07.880 --> 01:15:09.159
<v Speaker 3>was termally online, you know.

1474
01:15:09.279 --> 01:15:12.760
<v Speaker 2>I was doing this for totally content purposes, of course.

1475
01:15:12.680 --> 01:15:16.640
<v Speaker 3>Of course, of course. Well good luck to everyone on

1476
01:15:16.680 --> 01:15:19.199
<v Speaker 3>our lists, and hopefully it was good to do some

1477
01:15:19.239 --> 01:15:21.199
<v Speaker 3>outside the box ones that are not on CALSHI, like

1478
01:15:21.319 --> 01:15:24.560
<v Speaker 3>Eric Kirk and Trisha mcglofflin, because maybe if we say them,

1479
01:15:24.920 --> 01:15:27.880
<v Speaker 3>you know, the maga the maga verse listens to us,

1480
01:15:27.920 --> 01:15:29.720
<v Speaker 3>so we just if we put it out there, maybe

1481
01:15:29.760 --> 01:15:31.039
<v Speaker 3>we can build some buzz behind these.

1482
01:15:31.239 --> 01:15:34.800
<v Speaker 2>If you are listening to Potaninmarica, and then you think

1483
01:15:34.840 --> 01:15:37.119
<v Speaker 2>that we said something about who Trump might hire us

1484
01:15:37.119 --> 01:15:40.640
<v Speaker 2>his press secretary, and then you went and put money

1485
01:15:40.680 --> 01:15:42.199
<v Speaker 2>on that get help.

1486
01:15:44.640 --> 01:15:47.560
<v Speaker 3>Well, that might describe Elijah.

1487
01:15:49.840 --> 01:15:52.199
<v Speaker 2>Bobby, he's so far behind help.

1488
01:15:52.960 --> 01:15:56.720
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I can hear us still laughing. All right, Dan, Well,

1489
01:15:56.720 --> 01:15:58.880
<v Speaker 3>that's our show for today. Tommy will be back on

1490
01:15:58.920 --> 01:16:01.680
<v Speaker 3>the feet on Sunday with a conversation with tech journalist

1491
01:16:01.720 --> 01:16:05.840
<v Speaker 3>Casey Newton about the terrifying AI moment we're in exciting

1492
01:16:06.000 --> 01:16:08.439
<v Speaker 3>and what we can do about it. Casey's awesome, That's

1493
01:16:08.439 --> 01:16:11.119
<v Speaker 3>gonna be a great conversation. And then and then John

1494
01:16:11.199 --> 01:16:12.479
<v Speaker 3>and Tommy and I will be back with a new

1495
01:16:12.520 --> 01:16:15.079
<v Speaker 3>episode on Tuesday. Have a good weekend, everyone, By everyone.

1496
01:16:15.319 --> 01:16:17.680
<v Speaker 3>Pozive America is a Crooked Media production. Our show is

1497
01:16:17.680 --> 01:16:20.760
<v Speaker 3>produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Ruben, McKenna Roberts, and Faris Safari,

1498
01:16:20.800 --> 01:16:23.279
<v Speaker 3>with Ree Jerlin, Elijah Cone and Adrian Hill. Our team

1499
01:16:23.279 --> 01:16:26.359
<v Speaker 3>includes Matt de Groat, Ben Hefcote, Jordan Cantor, Charlotte Landiskrol

1500
01:16:26.359 --> 01:16:29.279
<v Speaker 3>pel Avive, David Toles, Mia Kelman, Ryan Young, and Naomi Single.

1501
01:16:29.359 --> 01:16:31.239
<v Speaker 3>Our staff is probably unionized with the writers Guild of

1502
01:16:31.239 --> 01:16:31.960
<v Speaker 3>America East
