Speaker 1: All right, welcome to the Blitz and it is Rivalry weekend.
We'll come to the final week of the regular season
on this incredible journey. Thank you each every one of
you've been tuning in regularly here live on the way
to talk to YouTube channel of course on a day
early because it's Thanksgiving, and joining me as per usual,
Ralph Michaels and Ross Benjamin is back this week like.
Speaker 2: A happy Thanksgiving. But let's get into the games. You're
going to start with the game I have eight and Michigan, Ralph.
I was on with Prez and.
Speaker 1: Jo Ranieri earlier this week on their program The Best
Betting Show Ever, and I was telling Joe that while look,
Brian Day's job security is obviously fine, they're not going
to string the man up on a poll if he
loses this game. However, and I'm going to you first
because I think you know this as well, being having
ties to the state of Ohio. Ryan Day needs to
win this football game on Saturday after four consecutive losses
to Michigan. Now, when I say needs to win it again,
will he keep his job if he loses?
Speaker 3: Yes?
Speaker 1: Is Ohio State and the still make college football playoff. Yes, However,
I think he wants to win this game, and I
think he wants to win it by margin. Your thoughts
on what happens Saturday noon eastern in and are well, you.
Speaker 4: Know, it's not a Pittsburgh situation when the coach says,
I'd rather lose by fifty to Notre Dame and within
those next two games. I'll tell you one thing last
year losing the Michigan benefit at Ohio State, not playing
in the National Championship and making the run.
Speaker 5: So hey, the best thing may be not to win
this game.
Speaker 4: So I sort of disagree with you, but I understand
the program of the game in Ohio State, Michigan and
you know, and needing to not get swept as far
as the recruiting go. But I want to mention this
because you mentioned rival week.
Speaker 5: Brian.
Speaker 4: My power ratings say Ohio State by seventeen, but I
will not be on Ohio State. Why are my power
ratings so far off? Well, I don't adjust weekly for injuries.
So you know, you have Carnel Tate and you know,
and Jeremiah Smith both were not quite sure what's going
to happen here, and they're an entirely different team if
they play or not play.
Speaker 5: I mean normally the quarterbacks.
Speaker 4: The most important player on the Ohio State team, Jeremiah Smith,
may be the most important player on this program. You
see the way the offense is different when he's not there,
when they don't have those two in and they get
double team the number three. You know, Yes, they put
up four hundred and forty yards against Rutgers in the
win last week, but let's remember Rutgers was the worst
defensive yards per play in the country, so to only
get four thirty is not a positive.
Speaker 5: It's actually a negative.
Speaker 4: From Michigan, I would say this it is their most
important game. If you polled the players and coaches on
the side and said to Michigan, would you rather beat
Ohio State and lose your bowl game by twenty or
lose to Ohio State and win your bowl game by twenty,
I'm sure they'd rather be Ohio State and lose their
bowl game.
Speaker 5: That's why the rivalryc is so different.
Speaker 4: And to be honest with you, it's the only week
in college football I really don't even use my power
ratings because these rivalries are so intense and they're such
an equalizer between the two teams. With that said, we've
seen Michigan and their young quarterback mature throughout the season
in Bryce Underwood. We've seen them with five straight wins.
We've seen them outgain their last five opponents by one
hundred and seventy yards per game. They're playing well down
the stretch. The defense did allow three hundred and forty
seven yards to Maryland, which is one of Maryland's best performances,
but again, that was on the road after playing Northwestern
in a brutal battle at Wrigley Field.
Speaker 5: I'm gonna go under here. You know. It's a situation
where Jane said.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go under first half, because if one of
these teams get behind, you're gonna see Michigan start doing
some double reverses and fake punts and things like that.
Speaker 5: They're in a position where they could do that.
Speaker 4: Ohio State doesn't care if they win this game by
one or by ten, it'll be a feel good win.
They'll advance, there'll be the number one seed in the playoffs.
So big difference in motivation here. I'm gonna go first
half under. Both teams run the ball established established to
try to establish the line of scrimmage. Actually, the under
may make my card for this week, the first half under.
Speaker 1: Oh. Well, that's very interesting because if I saw this
correctly earlier today on wager Talk today, Ross Benjamin broke
down the total for this matchup, and I think there
may be some agreement here. Ross. It's very interesting. Prior
to last year, these teams had gone over nine straight
times against one another, Ohio State Michigan. You think all
the history of this rivalry, you think obviously kind of
you know, a low score game of college football's changed.
These teams have with it. Last year, Like I said, though,
it was kind of a low total and it was
that you know, conservative offensive approach Ohio State went with
it had all those people calling for Day's head in
the immediate aftermath of the loss. What do you think
here in terms, because I know you have a take
on the total, and why don't you share that again
in case the people have head Yeah talk.
Speaker 3: Today, I'll simplify it.
Speaker 6: You know, you got the number one team in total
defense and scoring defense in Ohio State two hundred and
twelve yards a game and six point eight yards per
contest allowed. And this is a team that's playing in
a Power Conference against some pretty good competition. Boy boy,
they've allowed sixteen points or fewer in all eleven games
this season. Michigan's defense, on the other hand, not bad themselves.
I mean, number thirty one in total defense nationally at
two hundred and ninety eight point three yards per game.
They only allow a little more than sixteen points per
contests three and oh in Conference three and oh to
the under in conference home games from Michigan, and three
and oh to the under in Conference Awake four and oh.
Speaker 3: To the under actually conference away games from Ohio State
in both.
Speaker 6: The three and oher under in conference home games for
Michigan thirty four points per game and the four unders
and conference away games for Ohio State thirty nine point
five points per game. Sometimes we just need to keep
it simple and not over complicate things, Brian, and we're
all guilty of over complicating things sometimes. Hopefully I'm not
doing that here. Ohio State and Michigan under the total
of forty four.
Speaker 1: All right, I like it. So we have a first
half under a full game under and Ralph, I think
you would like to follow up.
Speaker 5: With something I did.
Speaker 4: I gave this note to the gold seet so it's
in their right up for this this week, and this
shocked me. Since twenty nineteen, this is only the ninth
time that two teams with nine wins have played each
other in the final week of the regular season. That
seems very short to me. In seven years, so that's
only one a year. But I went back and checked
all the data. By the way, they've gone over all
nine by nine point two points per game. Now, a
couple of those were the Ohio State Michigan game, so
those are in that mix. But again, only nine times
since twenty nineteen, if two teams played the final week
of the regular season with nine straight wins, with nine wins,
E sorry.
Speaker 3: Let me correct, Ralph.
Speaker 6: Let me correct Ralph if I may in Ralph. If
Ohio State wins against Michigan, whether it be by one
or ten the way you phrased it, and they get
to the Big Ten title game, they're going to have
to play Indiana. Borring an upset by Purdue over Indiana
this week, which is highly unlikely. Indiana Winnsday game. They're
not going to be the number one seed in the
College football playoffs.
Speaker 3: They would go to Indiana, wouldn't it.
Speaker 5: Oh absolutely yeah, I no, no question.
Speaker 4: I just meant they don't have to win this game
by any margin, just have to win out. If they
win by one point, in one point, they're gonna be
the number one seed.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think it's just a couple of things. I
think Michigan, you know we I talk about here, I
know a lot of us talk about about as his
team as good as its record. Are they better than
their record, worst their record? I think Michigan their record,
they're one of the few teams I would say very
accurate representation of what they are. All nine games they've
been favored the Wolverines this season, they've won the two
they've been a dog they've lost. I'm gonna say I
think Ohio State wins this game. I think they win
it by margin. Uh And pardon me, by the way,
John here are sometimes I go into business for myself
and work the chat. So, Adam, what has this common
in terms of rivalries? He says, rivalries in general mean
less now in the nil era, half the kids are
either new or aren't sticking around that long anyways, means
more to fans and boosters. I wouldn't disagree with that point.
I would argue that it's always probably met more to
the fans and boosters, and never is that more apparent
than the next game in our rundown, guys. Let's go
a little bit later on Saturday to the Iron Bowl
Alabama and Auburn, a rivalry where one that once caused
Amanda poison a tree that was unfortunate, but that's in
the past. Now we're gonna talk about covering spreads, not
trees here. Let me go to Rocks actually first on
this one. Alabama obviously a favorite here. They'd taken a
little bit of money. I thought the number opened a
little short, to be honest with you myself. They've got
a possible SEC Championship game in front of them. Auburn
has just been one of those kind of years where
nothing goes right.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 1: Alabama, I assume is gonna be pretty public side in this.
What do you think?
Speaker 6: Yeah, I would think so because of everything, the importance
of the game for them in terms of getting to
the SEC title game, and then once you're in the
SEC title game, you pretty much win or lose assure
yourself of being in a college football playoffs.
Speaker 3: Auburn, on the other hand, playing with a.
Speaker 6: Lame Duck coaching staff after Hugh Freeze got fired, a
lot of uncertainty in the program, a lot of instability
in the program.
Speaker 3: That's not the case at Alabama right now.
Speaker 6: And look, it's a rivalry game, and I think the
line is pretty accurate when you consider it a fact.
This is an Auburn team that's gone one in six
in our last seven games against FBS opponents, but all
six and our losses have come back ten points or fewer. Alabama, though,
I think is the better side here. I think they're
better on both sides of the ball. And I know
this rivalry carries a lot of weight. And by the way,
Auburn on her home field this year zero and three
straight up in ats against SEC opponents, I'm going to
have a small lean toward Alabama. Sometimes the public is right, friend.
Speaker 1: They are they are as much as we sometimes tell
you that they're not. Yes, even the public does get
them right, Ralph, It's interesting Auburn Ross mentioned him losing
close quite a bit this season. Well, home team in
the in this rivalry is on an eleven one to
one run against the number Bama. They failed to cover
their last four visits to Jordan Hare As a matter
of fact, the last three times these teams have played
at Auburn, the games have been decided by eight total
eight total of eight points. So there are some trends
that kind of support the dog here. And you know
Auburn's generally been losing close and they do need to win.
They want to get I don't know how much the
players care about becoming Bowl eligible and you know, playing
in some random bowl, but that is on the table
for Auburn. So what do you think here?
Speaker 5: I'll tell you what you may say, The players don't care.
Speaker 4: That is night and day for the coach is to
have those practices, to get those fifteen extra practices to
start working on those freshmen. So while the players may
not be too excited to go to a mid major ball,
the coaches in the program need to get to the ball.
So what happens when the team is five and six
and they have pressure to try to get that sixth
win in the ball. Since twenty fourteen, they've covered thirty
eight point five percent against the spread. So just because
a knee if a team is a home dog and
they need to win, that doesn't mean you're gonna need
to win it means there's added pressure. So that's something
that people sometimes put too much weight on. Of course,
both teams have pressure here, and like we've seen with
many rivalries, you know, if you finish sixth and six
and beat Bamas, some people will call it a successful season,
even though Auburn had other expectations. Remember, Auburn was just
blasted with some bad plays early Oklahoma seven point loss
at A and M six point loss, Georgia ten point
loss where they only were out gained by nineteen yards,
Missouri a six point ls, Kentucky a seven point loss,
and Vanderbilt a seven point loss. A season for what
could have been and should have been, you know, goes
down the tube as far as Bama is concerned. You know,
you're looking at an offense that has become more efficient.
You're looking at ty Simpson with a twenty two to
four ratio. But the rush attack is what scares me
for Alabama. The last four weeks they've only rushed for
three point three yards per carry. Now their defense is
holding firm. The Auburn rush defense, there's nothing wrong with that.
The only time they've given up over one hundred and
seventy yards all season was at Texas A and M,
but they only allowed four point four yards per carry.
I think Auburn can hang around for the first half.
I think they have enough motivation to come out. I
think Alabama ran the ball again. It was Eastern Illinois
last week, but even looking prior to that, you know
they don't run the ball early, and the board talked
about needing to establish the run early as he.
Speaker 5: Goes into the playoffs.
Speaker 4: With that said, slightest of lean with Auburn just because
I think the motivation keeps them up. But my official
best bet here will be first half Auburn plus the points.
Speaker 1: All right, two first half plays in two games there
from Ralph Ross.
Speaker 6: Yes, yeah, I mean Ralph makes a good point on
five and six teams needing to win and how important
it is the coaching staffs to get those additional fifteen
sixteen practices. In most cases, that's that's true. I think
in this particular case it's a little importance when you
stop and think about ninety five or more of this
coaching staff isn't going to be there next year. A
lot of these kids are going to transfer out from
Auburn because it's going to be a new coaching staff.
So ninety nine percent of the time, Ralph is right.
But in this particular instance, the importance.
Speaker 7: Of getting to a in getting fifteen additional practices by
going to a mid major bowl game type of thing,
if you will, is a little fact here.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, all right, that's two games in, guys,
we have several more to go in our rundown. We're
gonna be sticking to the SEC up next. Any game
you guys want us to talk about, it's very simple.
How you get us to do that. You just comment
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I know that I've done about one hundred shows today already,
so you can catch at these two of them if
you've clicked subscribe. All right, let's talk Tennessee Vanderbilt, and
I believe I have in my notes correctly there ross
that this will be your portion of the best bet
of the worst guys. Don't forget. At the end of
the show, Ralph Ross and I will be sharing a
best bet. So I'm gonna go to Ralph here for
Vandy and Tennessee first, and Ross you can share save
your opinion for the end of the program.
Speaker 4: There are not many times we get to week twelve
of a college football season and there's a stat that
pops out to me that that actually shocks me. You know,
I look at rankings every week when I go into this.
How about if I told you in college football this year,
the team that has the best, the most efficient offense
in the country, number one in yards per play is Vanderbilt.
Now they don't show up in the offensive ranks because
they play very slow. Their plays per game are about
one hundred and ten. But Vanderbilt is the most efficient offense.
They are number one in the country in yards per play.
We know Tennessee wants to play fast. Tennessee on the
season averaging seventy three plays per game. That is number
eleven in the country. We look at the offenses year
to date, number four and number nineteen. We look at
the scoring offenses year to date, number four and number nine.
We look at the defenses number fifty five and seventy five.
We look at the scoring defenses number forty two, number
eighty four. Also, both teams are very good in explosive
plays plays ten yards and longer number three and number eleven.
But when we look at what these teams allow on
explosive plays of ten yards or more, they're number ninety
one and ninety eight.
Speaker 5: Folks.
Speaker 4: They line up across the board. The offense is the defense,
the explosive plays, the exposive plays on defense. Yes, Vanderbilt
is a slower pace, but if Tennessee's going to score,
Vanderbilt will have to pick up the pace to score
as well. Give me the over in this one. I'll
sort of repeat what Ross said. Sometimes the obvious is
just that obvious, and don't talk yourself out of it.
So Ross, sorry for stealing your line, but it certainly
is appropriate here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, brilliant mind steak alike, Ralph.
Speaker 5: Brian your muted buddy.
Speaker 1: That's always well to do, right. It helps when people
can hear what you're saying. But you'll hear what Ross
has to say about this game at the end of
the show. Again, a best bet coming from each of
us at the end of the program. Let's now look
what makes this week so special. Obviously it's not just Saturday.
We've got games on Friday. If you're catching us live
here always helps, you'll be getting these. So hopefully all
of you are catching this before somebody's Friday games kickoff.
Next on the docket is Texas A and M and Texas.
Texas A and M obviously has it all still in
front of hi. An SEC championship on the table, an
undefeated season, all first round by in the College at
Football Playoff. They're a short favorite here against a Texas
team that, well they don't really have anything left to ploy.
They're not going to make the college football player. I
see it's smiling ross and because of that, I'm going
to go to you. What do you think here? Texas
A and Adams lived the charmed life this season. They're
one of those teams Every year there's a couple of
teams that the ball just bounces their way, it seems
in every game. What do you think about this one?
Speaker 6: Well, you know what, Brian, if it looks like a
fish and smells like a fish, you know what it
is fishy And that's just what this line is.
Speaker 3: I mean, stop and think about this for a second, folks.
Speaker 6: You got an unbeaten number three team in a country
at eleven and zero in Texas A and M as
just a two and a half point favorite.
Speaker 3: Even being on the road.
Speaker 6: That still jumps out at me because they're facing a
Texas team with three losses and only a two and
a half point favorite. So what's eight and a half
point favorite if they were at home against a three
loss team when you're unbeaten with so much at stake.
With a win, they get to the SEC Title game.
With a winning the SEC Title game, they end up
with a first round by in the playoffs, a lot
to play for for Texas A and M in Texas, Yeah,
I mean, I got I think they have a glimmering hope,
a very very small hope of getting to the college
football playoffs, but highly unlikely. Most likely they're gonna be
playing in a high profile bowl game.
Speaker 3: That's not the college football playoffs.
Speaker 6: And I don't know this, You know what in sports betting,
Ralph more times than that, if it looks too good
to be true, it is. And this might be a
textbook example of such. So I'm gonna stay away from
this game just because it doesn't not make sense.
Speaker 1: Brian, all right, Ralph, your thoughts Texas Texas and M I'll.
Speaker 4: Be on this game, and I just think the line
is low because of this. The Texas Longhorns get so
much freaking love arch Man and gets so much freaking love.
I was on the show last week and someone says, well,
arch maning is finally turning it around and he's leading
this team. Well, let me tell you what turning around
looks like. They got to Kentucky, they get out gained by.
Speaker 5: Two hundred and sixteen yards.
Speaker 4: They got to Mississippi State, a team that has five wins,
They got out gained by seventeen yards.
Speaker 5: They host Vanderbilt, they have a five yard edge.
Speaker 4: They go to Georgia, they get out gained by eighty
three yards, and they got out gained by twenty two
yards last week at home against Arkansas.
Speaker 5: They've been out gained four of.
Speaker 4: Their last five games, and the only yard that they
had an edge was they were down against Vanderbilt game.
Speaker 5: So to me, I am not buying.
Speaker 4: I am drinking the kool aid on Texas A and
M them going to Notre Dame and winning impressed me
them being undefeated to press me and impressed me and Brian.
Will you said, A and M has been the very
fortunate team, has been one of the most fortunate teams
the entire country. They're plus ten turnovers on the season.
Teams at plus ten turnovers usually only have one or
two losses. A and M on the season minus five turnovers,
So the luck factor doesn't work for me. Here A
and M has had to play harder and has played harder.
Let me just give you a couple stats for these
are in SEC games Texas A and M number eight
plus one hundred and forty four yards per game, Texas
ninety five getting out gained by fifty eight yards per
game and SEC action and yards per play Texas A
and M number twelve, Texas number sixty two. I think
this is just an overreaction to Texas and arch Manning.
Marcel Reed gets it done. A and M goes into
the SEC Championship undefeated and locks up a playoff.
Speaker 3: Berth.
Speaker 1: All right, there you have it. I saw in the
chats someone mentioned that, you know, A and M certainly
is going to probably come out a little sharper than
they did in that game. Against South Carolina. That goes
without saying. I think that was a flat spot for
the Aggies. One thing though, we need to point out
with this A and M team. You know, you look
at their schedule and who they've faced so far in
the SEC, they're SEC opponents. Guys have a combined eleven
and forty straight up record in conference play. That's they
got kind of I think the fortunate SEC. Look, there's
still such thing as an easy schedule in the SEC,
but relative to some of the other teams, I think
A and M scheduled easy. And I'm gonna say this,
I don't think this is the week you play against
an M. I think it's next week in the SEC
championship game you play against Texas.
Speaker 3: A and M.
Speaker 1: I do not think they will win that game, no
matter the opponents.
Speaker 4: Brian, you know, I'm gonna just bring this up because
we're on the final week of the regular season. For
those people that do futures next year, raiding the crossover
games are the most important thing when you're betting season
win totals. Because A and M avoided Georgia, they avoided
Alabama and sometimes sneak up, but crossovers are vital to
know your cross over games. And now you know they're changing.
Remember when when Ross and I were young, you played
the same six people and maybe two games change. Right now,
when you have twenty eight teams in your conference, there
may not be any crossover games and may be a
new conference every year. But again, when we were division wise,
that was my number one go to looking at that
when I did my when I did my team totals or.
Speaker 5: My season win totals.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and if you guys follow me on either Twitter
or Instagram, I sent out a video about a week
or so ago highlighting I had a and m over
eight and a half wins before the season. I thought
this was gonna be a good team. John Hoaglin, by
the way, was producing us today. Thank you John for
stepping it for in a very nice video for me
with the kuching sound. I appreciated that as we That
was one of the several win totals we cashed on
our pre season edition of the Power Fives. By the way,
they were plus one fifty to get over eight and
a half. Textall say that I thought that was a
good bet, and yeah, in retrospect, it was a good bet.
One more game on our rundown to get to then
we're gonna talk about what we've got going on this
week again at wager talk dot com, and then we're
going to get to the chat before we get to
the best bets. And the last game on our rundown
is also a Friday game, and well we know what
they're going to be talking about on the broadcast during
Ole miss Mississippi State. Obviously you can't handicap this game
without mentioning ross the unknown status of Lane Kiffin's future
in Oxford, And does that matter to you? Talk about it?
You know, I mean, it's got to be a distraction
for them. This is a team that if they win,
they're going to the college football Playoff, but they don't
know if their coach is going to be there. I mean,
so what a welcome to twenty twenty five in college football.
Speaker 6: What an oddity. And you know, it's got to affective players.
I think it would affect them a lot more if
this team was just seven and threes or eight and three,
I should say, going into their final game and they
were just going to go to a ball game. But
with so much at stake, I think the players themselves
are gonna play for himselves, so I don't think it'll
be quite as impactful as it normally would.
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm not a Lane Kiffin guy, Brian. You
know what he.
Speaker 8: Keeps getting all these big contracts, right, He's never won
a national title, and now here he is in a
position to win a national title for the first time, and.
Speaker 3: He's jumping ship before the playoffs start. This guy's an idiot.
I'm sorry.
Speaker 6: I'm not a proponent of Lane Kiffin anyway.
Speaker 3: Look, here's the thing.
Speaker 6: Oh Miss three and oh to the over in conference
away games this year, sixty three point seven points per
game Mississippi State three and zero in conference home games,
seventy three point three points per game Mississippi State four
and oh to the over in their last four overall
all four games, sixty two points or more being scored.
Their defense in the last four just terrific. Meaning Mississippi
State forty two point five points per contest, four hundred
and sixty six yards per contest or offense over the
last five hasn't been bad twenty nine points per game,
three hundred and ninety three yards per contest, all against
SEC competition. But this defense too, I mean not only
the numbers. I just gave it rough. They lowed three
hundred yards or more rushing in their last two games.
On the other hand, Oh Miss an offensive juggernaut, we
know that, and against a vulnerable defense such as Mississippi State,
I think they'll.
Speaker 3: Be able to move the ball well.
Speaker 6: But I still think Mississippi State will move the ball
on Ole Miss as well, because you look at ole
Miss defense during SEC play allowing twenty six points and
three hundred and sixty seven yards per game. Not exactly dominant.
So I'm gonna have a small lean here on o Miss.
In Mississippi State to go over to total of sixty two.
Speaker 1: Well that would be an interesting result there lost Why
Ralph the last eight egg Bowls is the name of
this rhyme under the total, But I think Ross made
a pretty compelling argument. Why this game? On Friday?
Speaker 3: Trent?
Speaker 2: What do you think that?
Speaker 4: I got a question for you guys growing up, when
I say what is the traditional Thanksgiving Day game? Do
you think the Egg Bowl? Or do you think Texas,
Texas A and M How the hell did we got
Memphis and Navy?
Speaker 3: This year? Yeah?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I know that was That was my first though
I mean it was so I was. I'm old enough
to remember when it was Texas Texas m but yeah,
it was always This game was always on Thanksgiving until
what last two years? I mean yeah, I mean it
wasn't that long ago. Was still played.
Speaker 6: At least one of those teams has a chance to
get to the college football playoffs.
Speaker 3: It's a long shot, but Navy still alive.
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, you know, they have to beat Tulane.
Speaker 4: I think Tulane's in the driver's seat there, but that's
that's a subject for another talk.
Speaker 5: Uh, you know, I'm gonna I'm gonna agree with Ross here.
Speaker 4: You look at Mississippi and the other defense. Their offense
is averaging four hundred and ninety four yards per game,
and they're averaging four point fifty in the SEC. That's
pretty impressive with twenty five first downs per game. You
look at the Mississippi State defense, you want to talk
about a train wreck. Ross mentioned the last two games
allowing over three hundred yards and by the way, six
point nine yards per carrie versus Georgia eight point four
carries versus Missouri.
Speaker 5: Now we know Old miss loves to run the ball.
Speaker 4: They are up tempo, but it's by running the ball
first that really can wear down a defensive line. They
ran the ball forty eight times to Florida past thirty five.
They ran forty five times against South Carolina for five
point seven Mississippi State. It's that run game going and
they're not They're not gonna be able to stop them.
The defense though, again they've got some decent numbers late,
but that was the competition. You look at their last
four weeks, you have to throw that out because they
played South Carolina when they were struggling, and they played
Citadel and then Florida, so their defense hasn't Their defense
is basically rested. They've had two straight bye weeks with
Citadel and Florida. I am gonna go a little more
specific though with the with the old Miss defense, the
way it's playing, with the Mississippi pace and run game
against this D line, I'm gonna go Old Miss team
total over not really no real opinion on the game here.
You know, Mississippi State another one of these, and I
agree with Ross. When you have these in state rivalries,
these five and six records aren't as important. But remember
I bring up these trends so you can use them
in all the games, not just.
Speaker 5: The specific game. We're talking about team total Old.
Speaker 1: Miss over for me, all right, couple looks the over.
I'm gonna tell you guys this, if you forced me
to make a play in this game, I'm taking the
points with Mississippi State. I think Ole Miss is coming
into stract here. And strange things happened this last weekend
of the college football regular season. And if you don't
want strange things to happen to you, you should go
to wager talk dot com, where all three of us
will be very very busy with a lot of plays
this weekend. You can rest assured. Obviously, we've got a
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total in the NFL. Ross, Why don't you tell the
people what you've got going on in your neck of
the woods there for this very very busy weekend of sports.
Speaker 3: Better my neck of the woods. It's offully cold, Brian, thank.
Speaker 1: You for same here.
Speaker 3: I appreciate your concern anyway. Well, yeah, you're in Ohio.
What am I thinking? Anyway? Yeah?
Speaker 6: I got all three games in the NFL on Thanksgiving Day.
I got three winners, two sides, one total and NFL
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Speaker 3: Let me see if I could check it real quick.
If bear with me, guys, anyway, it's pretty damn good.
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Speaker 1: All right, Ralph, sure you have a lot to talk
about as well. Floor is yours.
Speaker 5: I've got to help Ross out he's getting a little old.
Speaker 4: Okay, So Ross the Boss Benjamin his last nineteen football
games thirteen four and two seventy seven percent and dating
back since last September eleventh, fifty seven and thirty four
sixty two point six percent. So Ross, don't keat yourself
out of an extra percent, appreciate it three percent.
Speaker 5: All good.
Speaker 4: Like I said, it is a pleasure to have worked
with you this year. It is so nice to learn
from you each week. It's been great for me on
the show. And thanks everyone for joining us this year.
On this final week of the regular season, we'll still
be around for the balls and championships, so we're not
saying goodbye. But I did drop a five percent last week.
I had a birthday special. And I will say this,
I remember listening to Ross a few weeks ago, and
we all have these where we have a bad week
and you lose, and when you have a good handicap
or off a losing week, that really is at the
time to jump on them. It's like the old Patriots
when Belichick and Brady were off a loss, they were
money the next week. All three of us put the
dedication in and work harder. So again, I did drop
a college football five percent. I will have one this Saturday.
College football five percent, thirteen and three eighty one percent
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Speaker 1: Week app solutely all right. That is promotion time. We've
gotten through our rundown. Our best bets are coming up.
But of course first we are getting to your guys
questions in the chat Goose. A lot of o's in
Goose gets Goose seven. He has some pre Saturday plays
he's shared with us. We've already talked about the Mississippissippi
State game. We've alady talked about Texas A and M Texas.
But a couple of the ones there, I've seen some
support for the Dog. Thursday Night, Navy and Memphis are
the thanks Give the lone Thanksgiving college football matchup. I'll
say this, Navy was very kind to me against South
Florida their last time out, plus ten and a half.
I got a great number. Didn't matter what number I
got because they won that game out right. That was
a good one there. I don't like to lay points
against service academies, but I think but Memphis is a
tough out. But all those teams in the American generally speaking,
are so much better at home than on the road.
That was a big reason why I played Navy. They
were a home dog against South Florida. I think Memphis
is going to find a way to win that game
in the Liberty Bowl. Georgia Tech, I see you've got
in there, Goose. I don't know how they get off
the mat after having their season wrecked last week. I mean,
now they're on the outside looking in when it comes
to the a SEC Championship game, let alone the college
football Playoff. This was a team that was not as
good as its record. And you know, Jake Kirby has
got Georgia peak and at the right time. You know,
all of a sudden, those slow starts we saw from
the Bulldogs Ross kind of a thing of the past
now because they have come out barking the last couple
of weeks Georgia has. I don't know, I don't really
want to step in front of Georgia. I know that
it's a rivalry and it was very it was obviously
it went to a million overtimes last year. But I
don't know if I want to take it with Georgia
Tech against Georgia.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 6: I mean, when you ask you about Georgia Tech and
Pitt last week, I said, you know, I don't I
don't like to give out games when I have a bias.
I had a bias because they had Georgia Tech plus
seven hundred to win the ACC before the season started.
And but you know now, but I also said that
if I was to look at this game clearly with
an unbiased mind, that I thought Pitt was to play,
and obviously they were. I don't know, you know now
as in an overcompensation now because they lost last week
and they're out of it. It's a rivalry game. But
you're right, Georgia's seems to be peaking at the right time.
In Georgia Tech really never peaked in my opinion. You know,
they have a great record, but the bottom line is
is that, like Brian said, it's probably an overrated team
just based on the close results they had against seemingly
inferior opposition and lucky to win a couple of games.
Speaker 5: You know what, Brian.
Speaker 4: You know, watching the Ohio State game last week, it
was very refreshing for Ryan Day to say, listen, I
don't give a shit of the score early. I'm gonna
play slow. I don't care to score points. My defense
is only playing fifty two games per game. That's the
lowest in college football. Kurbis Start has the exact same attitude.
His defense is that he runs slow plays. He wants
to keep his defense fresh. And we're seeing these elite
college football coaches treat the beginning of the season now
like an NFL team does. Worrying about Casey doesn't worry
about what happens in week twe two and three. They
want to get Mahomes ready for the playoffs, although it's
going to hurt him this year a little bit. But
you know, the same thing aside, we are seeing a
maturation of college football leade head coaches treating their teams
like NFL teams, not worrying about a nuiversey season loss
because it doesn't affect them one iota. But with that said,
this Georgia defense allowing five hundred yards to NC State
in five hundred yards to Boston College against a Georgia
team that runs the ball well, passes the ball well,
doesn't give up sacks, has you know, doesn't get a
lot of sacks, but they do have enough to shut
this team down. They're only allowing three point zero yards
per carry on offense. So the quarterback Haines King is great.
He did he opened a lot of He opened a
lot of people's eyes early in the season.
Speaker 5: But this team is ready and prep for him. I
do like Georgia.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you made a very good point there at the start, Ralph,
I thought, I think it's gonna you're gonna hear a
lot about it. Let's say it's Ohio State Indiana next
week at the Big Ten Championship game, which is what
most people presume it will be. You know, Indiana is
kind of the new kid on the block in terms
of being a NASH power, so it made sense for
them to want to run up the score, you know,
kind of announce their presence, whereas Ohio State. You're talking
about a team won the national championship last year. And
Ryan Day, I completely concur he understands. Now, college football,
it's not it's it's not just twelve games in a bowl. Okay,
You're going to be playing fourteen fifteen, sixteen games in
putting a conference championship, and you want to stay healthy.
He knew his schedule, and yeah, Ohio State, Ryan Day,
I think did an extraordinary job keeping this team fresh
for the stretch run. And I don't blame Signetty for
what he did in Bloomington either. All right, But by
the way.
Speaker 4: Brian, if my power ratings have Ohio State six and
a half against Indiana in a neutral so we'll see
how close that is if they both win, I'm a little.
Speaker 1: Lower, but I don't. I don't, But at the same time,
I I that that years feels right like I kind
of was looking at my powerings. I'm like, God, I
wouldn't play Indiana at that number. But again, iow State
guys has not won a Big Ten championships since twenty twenty.
I think they might be hung for that, even though
everyone's gonna tell you they don't care for.
Speaker 6: If I could just one quick thought on the Navy Memphis.
Navy has played Memphis awful tough over the years, even
in a lot of times without as good a team
as they have this year, I think we'll see a
lot of points scored in this game. Memphis doesn't stop anybody.
They score a lot and maybe sort of of the
same ilk I mean and Ralph, you know, Navy throws
the ball a lot more than they used to in
years past, and they're a very diverse offense.
Speaker 3: So we may see a lot of points.
Speaker 6: And I think this game is gonna be a lot
closer than a lot of people anticipate because a lot
of people thinking Memphis is the better team. They may be,
but every team that plays Navy is more talented in
the American except for maybe Army. Okay, if you stop
and think about it, So Charlotte Charlene.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're struggling. They're struggling under Tim Alvin, former Ohio
you head coach.
Speaker 5: It's just it's amazing.
Speaker 6: These these service academies are always at the bottom of
the recruiting rankings in terms of classifying how good their
incoming freshman classes.
Speaker 3: Yet they know when it comes Army and Navy.
Speaker 6: Anyway, in the last couple of years, they've contended for
a conference title.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, you talk about points. I was just
gonna throw this real quick, Ralph. I mentioned I was
on Navy when they upset South Florida, and you know,
I felt pretty good having ten and a half in
my back pocket. That's that I believe. I'll go back
and check. I think the last seven drives of that game,
whichween all ended in touch like they were just trading.
So I was up three, U I was up ten,
up three, So I felt good with the cover the
whole way. But still, I mean, it was just touchdown, touchdown, touchdowns.
Speaker 6: All but one, I think all but one South Florida
drive and a second half resulted in a score.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I go back to that.
Speaker 4: I go back to the us F Memphis game. Oh
my god, if there were three seconds on the clock.
That was too much time to leave us f on
the o'clock to drive down. It was crazy how fast
those teams went down that the latter part of the
third quarter, in the fourth quarter, I've never seen a
game like that in the second half.
Speaker 1: Adam, as you could see on the screen, wants to
know about my alma mon Ohio University. They're in Buffalo
this week. We know after last night, one team that
will be playing for the MAC Championship, Western Michigan, Ohio,
is not a win in there. In situation, there's a
tiebreaker that will be involved, possibly with rival Miami of
Ohio and then the winner of Toledo Central Michigan. I
think the Bobcats are gonna get squeezed out of the
MAC Championship game. But I think they rolled this Buffalo team.
I wrote about it a couple of weeks ago when
I played Central Michigan Buffalo. I thought this Buffalo team
was extremely fraudulent. This is a team that struggled to
beat UMass. Anyone who has wanted to put themselves through
the misery of watching a UMass game this year knows
that that may be the worst team that we have
seen in recent UMass would be at least a seven
point dog to last year's Ken State team, who I
thought was the worst team I'd seen at the FBS
level of recent memory. So they struggled to beat Kent
State Buffalo. I mean so, I think ou as long
as they don't get caught playing with their food, they
can go in and they can at least handle their business.
Whether hoping we can get back to the MAC championship game,
but I don't know. I think the timer.
Speaker 6: Forecast is looking like a lot of snow in Buffalo
on Thursday Priday, So.
Speaker 1: Parker Navarro can take care of it. Parker Navarro can
take care of it.
Speaker 4: I think, well, again, snow doesn't affect You got to
check the wins. If the wins are over ten miles
an hour, make sure you're adjusting if you have the
past team you know in that game.
Speaker 1: All right, we've talked. I see some people asking them.
Ohio State Michigan guys, if you want to if you
missed the start of the show, you can catch us
on the replay. Obviously, that was the game we let
off with Ohio State Michigan. Ralph will be taking us
back to the Big Ten. I know in his best
bet segment a game sort of at the opposite pecking
order of the opposite of the pecking order in the
Big Ten. But remember, guys, they cash no matter where
they are in the packing orders. So let's you know what,
what do you say, Let's get to our best bets here.
We can. If there's any more questions that trickle in,
we can get to those after this, but let's give
ourselves some time to talk about our top plays. Ross,
would you like to go first, sir here? I know
that you missed last week, so we mist and so
we missed you. How about you give us your contribution
here to the best bet segment of the show.
Speaker 3: I missed you guys as well, and thank you. Brian.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm going to look at the total in this game,
which is sixty five and a half. Look, both of
these offenses are dynamic, and both defenses leave a lot
to be desired when considering they're the number twelve and
eighteen team in the country, Vanderbilt three and zero to
the over in their last three seventy points per game
scored in those last three games, and their offense over
the last three forty point three points per game, five
hundred and twenty three point seven yards per contest. They've
scored thirty one points in nine of their eleven games
this year. Year, Tennessee has done the exact same thing,
thirty one points or more in nine of eleven games
this year. Bandy has also allowed thirty plus points in
four of their last six Diego Paba. This kid is
a good story and he's exciting to watch. He may
not make it to the NFL on the NFL level,
but boy, he is one hell of a college quarterback
this year, seventy two percent completion rate, over twenty nine
hundred yards passing six hundred and sixty one yards rushing,
and accounting for thirty four.
Speaker 3: Touchdowns this year. In their first three games.
Speaker 6: Tennessee's offense and SEC play thirty five points, seven points
per game and four hundred and sixty eight yards per contest.
That's pretty damn good when you're facing SEC competition. However,
their defense against SEC opponents this year allowing thirty two
points per game and over four hundred yards per contest. Again,
both of these teams are explosive offensively. Both have great
passing games, Bandy averaging over two hundred and eighty three
yards of game passing Tennessee, just shy of three hundred
and eight. This game, to me has all the makings
of a forty one thirty eight, forty five thirty eight
type of game.
Speaker 3: Brian.
Speaker 6: So I'm gonna go over to total. I'm not gonna
get scared of the high number. It's that high for
a reason. Anything sixty six or lower go over to total.
Vandy in Tennessee.
Speaker 1: All right, that is over in Tennessee Vandy. Vandy got
off to a great start in that game last year
and then fell apart. I remember that because I was
on Vandy. Unfortunate that was that was really irritated about that.
We'll see Commodore way back. But Ross likes points no
matter who wins. I am now going to talk about
I'll give my best bet here it is in Conference USA.
Oh is this a doozy niss eight? Liberty had a
really nice free play for you on last week's show.
If you recall, gave out utsa plus two and a
half versus East Carolina. Yeah, it was ECU that had
everything to play for, but it was the road Runners
that rolled to a fifty eight to twenty four victory
jumped out to a thirty one nothing lead in the
first half, never in doubt. There was probably the best
play I've given out in this segment all year. I
can't promise y'all it'll be that easy this again this week.
But a bit of a similar setup as I'm taking
Liberty plus two and a half at home against Kennessaw State.
How this play is similar to last week? It's twofold
once again. I'm going to two and a half point
on dog. Also, you've got a road favorite coming in
controlling its destiny to get to the conference title game,
Knnessaw State. It's a major break when Jacksonville State lost
last week Kenneth For those who don't know, Kennessa State,
Jacksonville State, Western Kentucky now all coming to the final
weekend of the regular season with identical six and one
records in Conference USA. Jacksonville State's playing Western Kentucky on Saturday,
So if Kennesaw State wins here, they're going to face
the winner of that game in the Conference USA championship
next week. So you have to be thinking to yourself, BP,
why aren't we back in Kennisaw as a short favorite here? Well,
Owls were really lucky to get by Missouri State last week.
Really lucky only a twenty percent post game win expectancy
per Bill Conley. They went on a last second touchdown. Now,
let's talk about the Liberty side. If I were to
ask you guys to give me a list of the
most disappointing teams in the country in all of college
football this season, I think most would have Clemson or
Penn State at the top. But I say no team
has fallen shorter of the mark than Liberty. If you
go back to the preseason, this is a Liberty team
that expected to compete for a group of five spot,
the group of five spot in the College Football playoff. Instead,
here we are final week in the regular season. Flames
can't even get ball eligible. Last week another brutal loss
for Liberty at Louisiana Tech. They lead twenty eight to
seven in the second half on the road, seventy five
percent post game win expectancy, and they lose in overtime.
Third straight loss by one possession. Nevertheless, my numbers say
Liberty should be a slow favorite here. I'm going to
trust those numbers in what I feel is an ultimate
by low spot Ross every week on wager Talk Today.
I know you share a game where you think the
line makes no sense. Well, here we have a team
that simply needs to win to get into the conference
title game, facing an opponent that really has nothing to
play for, and the line is short. This line sticks.
Let's hold our nose for a classic BP special liberty
plus two and a half. If you would have said
at the start of the season, or even a few
weeks ago, that Kennesaw State would be favored in this game,
you would have been committed to a metal institution. I'm
telling you, give me liberty or give me death. Ever,
should check out that American Revolution documentary AMPBS. I thought
it was quite good. There's a random TV wreck on
the show as well. So liberty is what I'm giving
you here. Ralph closes out, well, I.
Speaker 5: Am the marquee game. Now.
Speaker 4: These teams started the season a combined seven to zero.
They finished the season a combined zero to fifteen. But
doesn't mean there's not value. Of course, I'm talking about
Michigan State and Maryland. This game is in Ford Field
in Detroit, and you know this is one where even
though Michigan State again has lost after three wins. They've
lost every game since. They're winless in.
Speaker 5: The Big Ten.
Speaker 4: Playing where the Detroit Lions play because a lot of
these kids grew up in that Detroit area still is
something special for them. I think that gives them a
little bit of an edge. But really it's what have
you done for me lately in this game? And for
me it's easy. You look at the last four weeks now,
who's played the tougher schedule Michigan, Minnesota, Penn State, Iowa
when Penn State was playing well, or UCLA, Indiana, Rutgers
in Illinois.
Speaker 5: Clearly the first one, which is Michigan State.
Speaker 4: Well in the last four games against Michigan, Minnesota, Penn State,
and Iowa, Michigan has is plus.
Speaker 5: One yard per game.
Speaker 4: You look at the other side, Maryland minus one hundred
and forty four yards per game their last four massive difference.
The way they're finishing. I like Michigan State here to
finish it off with a win in the season finale.
Speaker 1: All right, there you have it. Three best bets from Ross,
Ralph and myself. Ross likes over in Vanderbilt, Tennessee. I
like Liberty getting two and a half, and Ralph is
laying it with Sparty against Maryland. We too have a
few minutes left, just a couple more questions here, and
we can close it Upit versus Miami obvious. Look everyone,
they're going to manufacture this controversy between Miami and Notre
Dame for the college football playoffs. I know Miami beating
Notre Dame. Notre Dame would be a huge favorite if
those teams play. They were a favorite the first time,
they'd be a huge favorite if they played again. I
do agree that, you know, results of these games should
mean something. It's unfortunate for Miami that they're probably gonna
get squeezed out of the playoff, but they probably shouldn't
have lost as a double digit favorite to SMU and Louisville.
I wouldn't want to lay it with Crystal Ball in
this spot.
Speaker 6: Time Miami was a dog, or actually Notre Dame was
a dog against two and a.
Speaker 5: Half point dog, I think, right, yeah, oh that's right,
we were.
Speaker 1: I apologize. That's right, that's right, Yes, that's right.
Speaker 5: You know what, Brian.
Speaker 4: One important thing you said, though, is I think the
committee would put a huge amount of stock in head
to head matchups if it were in the last few weeks,
but they have said they're looking at progressions of teams,
So a week one loss doesn't hurt you as much
as a head to head loss two weeks ago, which
the committee would clearly look at with more emphasis.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just I don't know if anyone I agree. Yeah,
that's right that Miami was the favorite the first time around.
So all right, let's one more question, Texas Tech. Are
they giving h too many points there? David wants to
know USC. Of course, playing UCLA to want to game
doesn't mean what it used to be anymore.
Speaker 3: Wow.
Speaker 1: I mean two teams the opposite end of the spot.
All they have in common they're both in La. Texas
Tech obviously has been a juggernaut. I wouldn't want to
get in front of them. I tried a couple of
weeks ago. I gave out a free play and that
was that didn't go swimmingly. Needless to say, the Texas
Tech team is among the country's elite. I'm really excited
ross to see them get mixed up with a big
ten or SEC team in the College Football playoff. Down
the line, assuming they get there.
Speaker 6: They one of the best defenses in the country. For
a team not name Ohio State, and they could score too.
And the difference is in this game is going to
be the two defenses. I think Texas Tech is on
par with USC offensively, but defensively there's no comparison.
Speaker 5: Roal, I think, Yeah, isn't it weird?
Speaker 4: Isn't it weird to hear there's a Big twelve team
that has a physical defense that is elite.
Speaker 5: When's the last time? When's the last time we said that?
Speaker 1: So?
Speaker 4: Yeah, Texas Tech could be an SEC or a Big
ten team this year. There's no question they fit in there.
There's you know, I think I only have them. I
think I have them four points behind Ohio Stage. Who's
my top came into my power ratings.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I would be less inclined to lay it
with USC guys. Obviously, this is a team. They had
their chance last week to kind of force there, to
try to slide their way into college football playoff. They
come up short against the Oregon Now laying more than
three touchdowns. I know UCLA's been terrible in recent weeks,
but I don't know that's a lot of points.
Speaker 4: But at least they love to wear their colored uniforms
against each other. It's still the best line up in sports.
When they walk out just to watch the red end
the blue. It's it's still a neat it's still Then
you turn the game off right after you see the
jerseys once and you're good to go.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it does. It's a lot better than when Alabama
plays Arkansas or something like that and you're like, who
the hell's all right? I think that is going to
do it. For this edition of the Blitz, we thank
you all for joining us again. Before you leave, why
not smash that like button. Don't forget to click subscribe
as well. Any any if you're catching us on the replay,
you can still comment down below. Ross Ralph or I
see your question in time, will be more than happy
to answer it. We hope you all have a happy
and say Thanksgiving. Yes, we will be back next week
for conference Championship weekend, obviously a much smaller slate so
we can dive maybe a little bit deeper into those games.
Until then, let's cash the tickets.