Speaker 1: All right, welcome in.
Speaker 2: It is Wednesday morning time for Total Basis, your Free
Pick Botch the intro Your Your Free Pick MLB Free
Pick Show on the wager Talk YouTube channel. Man, I
cannot think this morning we're hitting that we're at the
home stretch.
Speaker 1: It's been a long first half, but it's been a
good first half.
Speaker 2: Of course, Sunday is the end of the I guess
the unofficial.
Speaker 1: End of the first half is.
Speaker 2: Brian Leonard pointed out yesterday the halfway point was a
while ago. But they have the All Star break about
ninety games in I never quite understood that. I always
thought it should be the first half break and then
the second half. But there must be something about mid
July and that All Star game that that that jives.
I guess it's just been that way forever. And I know,
I know you're like me, Brian. You don't like to
change things that have been a certain way forever. It's
why I have such a problem with some with the
ghost Runner and some of these rules. But that's either
here nor there. It's time to talk baseball. We got
fifteen games today, day games. I love Wednesdays and Thursdays
because we get some early games, some later games, and
I'm going to start with, you know, with what I
think is sort of the feature matchup again this week.
Speaker 1: We talked about it first yesterday. That's Brewers Dodgers.
Speaker 2: We have the return of Tyler Glass now today and
he's up against the Brewers who are suddenly red hot.
Speaker 1: So let's start there. Brewers Dodgers, how are you seeing
this one?
Speaker 3: You would mentioned the ghost Runner. The only problem I
have with the ghost Runner is betting in totals. It's
equal for both teams from the side standpoint, and I agree.
I don't like games going in seventeen innings and blowing
out your entire rotation or your bullpen. So yeah, it's yesterday.
I had the Kansas City under and they tied it
up at three to three, and I thought I was
going to lose that game. There was a clear under
all day long. That's my only concern about that. Yeah,
I supposed to be back today four point five oh
era five point four five, expected a little bit higher there,
one point two eight whip. He's only pitched eighteen innings
this year, so all of his numbers are a little
bit a little haven't come into a full focus yet
on the stackass page his extension is one hundred percentile
and he's six foot eight. That tells you how he
has success. He's very good in that regard. He's going
up against, as you mentioned, was a Quintana, a veteran,
been around a long time. This is his fourtheenth season.
He's got a three point seventy three career ERA. That's
pretty good. You know, he's always mentioned as an afterthought,
and he was a free agent last year and nobody
really wanted him. But he's been a pretty good pitcher.
He's got three four point four to four ERA this
year four point one to nine expected. His whip is
high one point three nine. His career is one point
two eight. That's what you get out of him. He
is whif ray. He's only in the third percent seventh
percentile strikeout rate in a fastball velocity six percentile. So
the problem is he's not very good with his fastball.
But the smart thing is he only throws at ten
percent of the time, so he's one of those veterans
that understands what he's doing. He's not the same guy
he was years ago. In fact, fifteen point eight is
the strikeout rate this year and that's the lowest it's
been in the last decade. So he's he's a guy
that I like to bet on because of that, and
it comes into this game. He's a lefty going up
against the Dodgers daughters in last night. We're about a
one fifty five favorite total eight and a half. I
mentioned yesterday about the wreckers for Milwaukee and the Dodgers.
Milwaukee now has the biggest run differential in Major League Baseball,
in front of the Detroit Tigers. So this is a
good baseball team. They've got the confidence up. The Dodgers
right now are struggling, and even though they do take
games off, you would think when they're playing a team
that they could possibly play in the playoffs, you would
get their best effort. I don't want to lay one
fifty five fifty here for the Dodgers based on what
they're doing, and with Glass now coming back, who knows
if he's going to be on a pitch count or not.
And against lefties, Let's see what the Doctors have been
in the last month or so. They're number seven, won
thirteen since January first, so good, not great, slightly with
Milwaukee as the dog here, but probably won't get involved.
Speaker 4: There are a couple factors in this game that are
a mystery to me. One of them is how is
Tyler Glass now going to do? He's been out for
extended period of time. If you cover the logos and
you cover the team names here, the Dodgers are one
of the worst teams in MLB in current form. Horrible bullpen,
horrible batting. They haven't been playing her Nandez, who, in
my opinion, is pretty much the heart and soul of
their lineup. I know Otani gets all the accolades, and
Freeman and Bets are really unbelievable baseball players, but to me,
players like Hernandez and Smith are the reason this team
is winning. In my opinion, they they're the kind of
the hard and soul, and neither one of them have
been playing so I think. To me, it seems like
the Dodgers are kind of thrown in the towel in
the last series. In this series, maybe they'll try to
make up some games against the White Sox before the
end of the before the All Star Game, but they're
just not playing well at all. I don't like Jose Kintana. Actually,
I have him ranked twenty one out of thirty on
a curve of thirty pitchers including his including his expected numbers.
But the Brewers' bullpen playing outstanding and their batters are
hitting the ball quite well. So if I covered the
and team names, I would think the Brewers could win this.
But I have never been a fan of Quintana, and
I don't know what to expect from glass Now, so
I won't play it.
Speaker 1: So Glass Now.
Speaker 2: I watched his last two rehab starts at Oklahoma City.
The last one, the most recent one, was considerably better
than the first two, kind of you know, had him.
So I watched him pitch against Sacramento. He was all
over the place, really struggled with command.
Speaker 1: It was.
Speaker 2: It was not good, and that's not a team that
hits particularly well. Last time out against Las Vegas, who
has one of the best lineups in Triple A this
year pretty much at any point in time and right
now he was he was very solid. So he went
four and a third, you know, still gave up, still
still missed out over the plate quite a bit, didn't
walk anyone. Eight strikeouts like it was. It was an
encouraging sort of third outing. So for that reason, I'm
less inclined to fade him here. And also the Brewers
are coming in, like, it's not really the spot I
want to now go against the Dodgers. I you know,
I didn't benefit from this Dodger's little losing streak, so
I don't want to like jump in right now and
pick this spot to go against them. That being said,
like if you've been betting the Brewers this whole time,
I don't dislike a.
Speaker 1: Brewers plus one and a half. I think that's that's reasonable.
Speaker 2: Roque Energy says, you know, I've been looking at fade
Quintana last Now's light years better.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's very true.
Speaker 2: But I really think you have to just acknowledge the
fact that glast now hasn't pitched since you know he's
he's still working his way back. You're still probably looking
five innings maybe from him. I would say, like, that's
a real I think that's a reasonable sort of you know,
he might give you five good innings.
Speaker 1: I don't think he's going to go to particularly deep
into the game.
Speaker 2: And I do think like these next few days, you
know that the Dodgers, like they theoretic, we could lose
every game from now, do we all start breaking be fine.
Speaker 1: Mentally, they're just not.
Speaker 2: I don't know that I want to play the Dodgers
right now where they're at mentally, because they really could
just be in cruise control going into the break and
then they you know, the break's gonna get a chance
to regroup, come out, and they're gonna be fine. So
for that reason, I can't play the Brewers, though my
numbers do suggest some value on Milwaukee.
Speaker 1: Go ahead, Brian Leonard.
Speaker 3: Yeah, just from I know you've pointed this out in
the past, when Corbin was with Washington, you'd have a
similar picture going back to back, totally different pictures from Milwaukee. Uh,
miss Rowski is the big, the big, fastball, big strike
twelve strikeouts yesterday at six innings. Now we're going up
against a more of a jump ball pitcher at this
point of his career. But he is a veteran, so
it's totally a different type of picture they saw yesterday.
I think that's an advantage from Milwaukee.
Speaker 2: All right, let's uh, let's keep it going. There are
a whole bunch of games today. I'd love to get
to as many as possible. Let's go to the Let's
go to the chat Mark Kinson, our guy Markinson. He's
talking about, well, I'll goanna pull Collins comming up because
he is in ladder mode right now. He says red
Sox minus one and a half, minus two and a
half the team total, the mascot getting a hit. He's
taking the Red Sox every which way. It has been
a blood bath for the Colorado Rockies at Fenway Park,
Bryan Leonard, it.
Speaker 1: Probably continues today.
Speaker 2: I see zero redeeming qualities for the Rockies, and the
Red Sox need these wins right now they had. I mean,
these are our golden opportunity wins for a team like
the Red Sox to stack up as they try to
insert themselves back into that American League East race and
in the wild Card race.
Speaker 1: So I can't really disagree with Colin here. What do
you think?
Speaker 3: Yeah? The only problem is the line lives very very
high right now. Boston against the National League this year
sixteen and ten, Colorado against the America League five and
twenty one, very similar to what Colorado has been giving
you all season long. SINSATLA going for Colorado. Not much
more to say here. He's the worst pitcher in Major
League Baseball is still getting innings. Eighty six innings this
year so far for him six point five seven e
RA six point six to zero expected ERA one point
nine whip. He's in the first percentile. This is one guy.
He's in the first percentile in pitching run value, basketball
run value, auspreed run value, expected DRA, expected batting the average,
and strikeout percentage. This guy. I'm an underdog player, and
there's no way in hell I want to play anything
with Censtela. The only problem you have with Giolito is
is in consistency. But he's been very good as of
late section essension eighty fifth percentile. He's six foot six
that's major, but expected adding average only in the ninth percentile.
Austrey run value in the twelfth, expected the RA seventeenth.
So he does has the faults, but he's starting to
put it all together coming back from injury. He's only
a four pitch pitcher and he only throws his curve
three percent of the time. I'm not a big lover
of guys that throw the fastball a lot, and his
four team has used forty nine percent of the time
his fastball velocity. He's only in the thirty fifth percentile.
So he's not a guy even though he throws the
fastball a lot, he's not a guy that gets a
lot of strackouts this year. Last year he had two
hundred four or excuse me, twenty twenty three, two hundred
four strikeouts in one hundred and eighty four innings. This
year not quite as good, but lately a little bit better. Yes,
she had boss to win, Yes, but we see this
all the time. We saw it out Houston yesterday and
I had Houston just did not play well in the
first half of that game, and obviously one pitch and
they that game and in extra heading. So it's tough
to lay these three dollars payers because if you lose them,
you've got a lot to catch up on. And so
even though I preferred Boston side, I won't get involved here.
Speaker 4: So, guys, I have two MLB plays out already. If
you go down there, you can see mine, Adam and
Bryan's pages at wager Talk. We'll all have something out
for today, some good matchups, some things to like. I
just surpassed plus one hundred units in twenty twenty five,
So grab my plays down there. Hopefully I can keep
it knocking on wood and keep that going. So regarding
this game Gielido, I was really skeptical when he came
back and started pitching. He had one game against the
Angels where he got absolutely torched. I just thought he
was shot, he was done, and his career was over.
But how wrong was I? Since that game, he's started
five games and he's only allowed three earned runs in
all five of those games. Amazing stuff. So I have
turned a leaf on g Aledo. He is back to
bonafide stud ge Aledo, and I am ready to back
him at this price. It's a little tough, however, I
don't mind the minus one and a half here. I
think Boston will curb stomp these guys. They've got the
better bullpen. Boston's, well, their bullpen's not performing real well,
but neither is Colorado's. At the moment, Geeledo is just
an absolute stud. As Brian said, Senzetela, probably the worst
regular starter in all of Major League Baseball versus a
starter who's given up three earned runs in five starts,
pretty amazing. Boston's bats are on fire. I have them
ranked number one in MLB. No other way to go,
but Boston find a way to bet them. There are
ways to get around the steep price. For example, ge
Aledo to record a win. I checked it before the show.
It was minus one ten record a win. I generally
like to get plus one sixty or so to record
a win, because you have to do three things to
record a win. It's pretty tough to do. But I
don't think it'll be tough today. Geelito will definitely, well,
I'm not gonna say definitely. Gelito will most likely go
five innings, Boston will most likely be winning after those
five innings, and their bullpen most likely will protect the win.
That would be the way I would go.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's a you know, going going back
to Collins comment like that, that would be a way
to sort of just try to ladder your way up
and see if you can get odds with like a
bigger blowout type win, because there's not there's just not
a ton of value like playing a Red Sox win
or even like Red Sox minus one and a half.
I almost think like maybe maybe you ride some of
these hotter Red Sox hitters and like hitter prop type scenarios.
Romey Gonzales just raking right now, Roman Anthony's got a
great streak going both I think matchup pretty well. Would
send of Taylor, who theory like he he might throw
VP today, He's actually like, I still think he.
Speaker 1: Is the worst starter right now.
Speaker 2: That is like a regular starter that's been up all
year in Major League Baseball, and he's actually been semi
respectable of late. But I don't I don't think he's
gonna be semi respectable here. He's probably got to blow
up coming in his future. And uh, Fenway Park is
is like he's on that team because he deals with
the altitude. Okay, right, So this is actually probably a
much worse scenario for a guy like sens of Taila
than pitching at home at Coursefield, a hitter friendly park
with a a crowd that's gonna get on you, right, Like,
have you ever been to a game at Fenway. They're
they're gonna they're right on top of you. They're gonna
get on you, whether you're whether you're Garrett Cole or
Antonio sends to Taila. So I think this is a
really tough spot for him. BBF Ford said it should.
Uh you know the Rockies bullpen, Yeah, they've used the
bullpen arms and that bullpen has not been as good
as it was maybe a month or or maybe six
weeks ago. Red Sox blowout here, find a way to
play it. But but they're gonna win this game big,
most likely, go ahead, Brian Letter.
Speaker 3: If Colorado ever had Al Rader good enough to get
into the All Star Game or the Home Reading Contest,
you think it would be bad if he has sense
of tellent to pitch to him.
Speaker 2: I know, right, Yeah, it's that is that's a that's
a funny. It's a funny, uh thought. But yeah, I
mean again, the guy, he's he's the one holdover from
those like twenty eighteen playoff Rockies teams. He's he's the
organization loves him. He's sort of given everything to that organization.
I think they're gonna let him eat up innings until
he no longer wants to eat up innings. But he's
been able to pitch at altitude. Today he's at Ben
White Park. I think it's gonna be a different story.
Let's move along, and Brad, yeah, that was a interesting
he said. Brad says, hey, guys, I had everything come
in except the cups. Let's turn it around. I gotta
be honest, like it didn't make my client card. But
we can talk about the game that did the Braves,
which was probably my worst call of the season. We'll
get to that later in the show. I was, I
was quite surprised with the Cubs yesterday. They were totally flat.
They did nothing off Simeon Woods Richardson. The final score
is a little bit deceiving, like that was a two
to nothing game in like the seventh. But man, you
know that the Cubs I expect I've grown to expect
better out of than Brian Leonard because I truly believe
they're a contender for in the in the World Series
picture this year. So today, you know, I get like
I don't. I don't think David fest is an easier
option than Simon Woods Richardson. I think they're they're right
about the same guys that you know, kind of trying
to trying to compete for that fifth spot in the rotation.
But I think I come back with the Cubs here
another crack against the lesser pitcher. Cade Hort and David
Festa were back in Minnesota. How do you see this one?
Speaker 3: I see this as my part of the parlay today
and I fermally agree that the Cubs should be a
good bounce back candidate today. Kate Horton against Festa Festa
right now about a one ten favorite overall, nine and
a half to the under on the total. Yeah, the
Cubs are just one of those teams that when you
talk about the lineup one through nine, they're good hitting lineup.
Kate Horton's been just as good as his promise. Comes
in with a four point one five ERA, four point
four eight expected, one point three to eight whip. Take
a look at his game logs as of late. He's
coming off of a shutout of the Guardians, but before
that he did get hit by Houston and didn't pitch
well against Seattle. But this is a guy that I
like what he's doing. He's had He's had a few
games where he has struggled. The Tigers had it pretty
well too, gave up four runs to them. But this
is this is a guy I'm looking to back. Not
a great strikeout guy, thirteenth percentile got just strike out
to walk ratio on the season is nine point eight,
not very good. But I've watched him pitch and he's
had a couple of bad breaks go against him. I
think he's better than what he has shown. Fest is
the guy that the team wants to have in there,
but he just doesn't eat up the innings. Comes in
with a five point four to EIGHTYRA, four point sixty
six expected, one point three to six whip great extension
ninety first percentile, and he's six foot six. But other
than that, he has problems with the barrel rates seventeen
percentile expected, the RAS and the twentieth percentile. Best is
a guy that we really like coming into the season,
and I'm just not buying into it. He just has
struggled when he gets to the third time he sees
these teams, these players in the league. I like the
Cubs here. It was a real surprise to me that
Minnesota hit as well as he did yesterday. I'm still
not buying into Minnesota. I think the Cubs here. Basically
plus one hundred is the way that I would play
this game, and I would use this as my play
in the parlat.
Speaker 4: I wish Minnesota was playing this game on the road. Amazingly,
they have a losing record overall, but their home record
is twenty five and eighteen, so just imagine how horrible
they are on the road in this game. I have
both starters fairly even right around the mediocre line, and
I have both bullpens. I have Minnesota's bullpen slightly lower
than the Cubs. The Cubs bullpen is not exactly one
that you can throw all your trust in, but that
lineup sure is. I was on the Cubs yesterday and
I lost that game. I was on the Astros as well,
and I lost that game. So just you know, things
don't go as you think sometimes. But I can't see
the Cubs losing this one. I'm not going to put
a lot on it. The one thing about Festa, though,
is he doesn't walk people very much. His walk to
strikeout ratio is really good, where Cad Horton's is not
so good. That's a little bit of a worry. But
I think the Cubs lineup, I mean, Saya Suzuki was
awful yesterday. What was he doing? He was terrible. I
was just going on and on about how he got
snubbed in the All Star Game and how it was
a sham sham and all that, and then he goes
out there and strikes out three times in a row,
one time with the bases loaded. I mean, what are
you doing. I don't think the Cubs are gonna play
like that two days in a row, So that would
be the way I would go, but I haven't played
it yet.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think they're gonna play like that two
days in a row either.
Speaker 2: I do think it's it's worth pointing out something that
we've talked about all week like this is it's those
last few days, you know, at the office before you
get to go on vacation. I know everyone in this
chat can relate to that in some manner, like when
you have a vacation planned, those last couple days of
work not always your most productive, and it's like it's
human nature. You can't even take it out of a ballplayer.
You would like to think that the Cubs just come
out and bounce back here and play better. BBF four
in the chat says Cubs only scored one run total. Yeah,
that was surprising to me. I felt like their lineup
should have done damage against Woods Richardson and they didn't.
I feel like they should do damage against David Festa.
You talked about FESTI he doesn't walk, guys, but what
he does is he'll put when he gets guys on base,
he throws it down the middle of the plate. He's
been doing it since he got called up last year.
It's my it's my one. It's his one. Fatal flaw
at the big league level is the second he gets
into a little trouble. Instead of nibbling a little bit
and trying to hit a corner, nick a corner, getting out,
make a competitive pitch, he throws the ball down the
middle and praise that it gets hit at one. I mean,
I'm not saying that that's what he's doing, but that's
what he does, right. Like he he he moves the
ball off the corners, it catches plate, and suddenly it's
a two to three run inning. We talked about Festa
last week. That's exactly what happened. I think he was
up against the Marlins first inning, some traffic on the
bases and he grooves one to I think Sanchez or
Stours took him deep. All of a sudden, it was
a three to nothing game. Now he settled in that
game and he can't. And that's that's the frustrating part
with him, is he can be if he's on and
he's got it working. He doesn't have a ton of
traffic on the basis he will go four or five
innings and be respectable. But the Cubs are a tough
team to do that too. Because this goes back to
what I've talked about all year. I think the Cubs
have tremendous at bats one through nine. I think yesterday
was a just a day where they lacked focus. Remember
they want they won eleven and nothing on Saturday or
on Sunday, then a day off on Monday. You have
to just think that yesterday just not focused in that game.
I think the Cubs are going to be focused here.
So I'm with you, guys. I like the Cubs to
bounce back. Brian, Brian Lennon, did you say that you're
Parlay Lake? Did I hear that correctly?
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's my Parlay leg Get plus one hundred and
good points about Festa. You see this a lot where
guys come up from the miners. They had a lot
of success in the minors by just having really good stuff,
and then they get into the majors and they think
they can compete the same way. But these guys are
in the majors for a reason. Great is leg At.
We're j eight point four percent. That's his career at
walk great. So he uh yeah, he's He's a guy
that we like, we like, always liked. But I just
don't think the situation sets up well for them. And
you know it's the Cubs are the better team. You know,
you're getting a better team off the loss. You talked
about him winning eleven or nothing. Just think about it.
If you win eleven or nothing, then you have the
next day off, everybody's talking about how good you are.
You know, hey, we're we're cooking right now.
Speaker 1: Who is the.
Speaker 3: Team that prepared more for yesterday's game? It was the
Twins at that point. The Twins are sitting there, you know,
we're falling out of this division. We've got to turn
it around. They came out with the injury energy Yesterdary.
I think the Cubs bring it today.
Speaker 2: And I wonder how much like you know, early infests
his career. I know you're not a huge rockerball Delli
guy at this point, and I might I kind of.
Speaker 1: Been questioning it what I think of him as a
manager as well.
Speaker 2: At least, you know, the last couple of years, I
felt like the Twins that had really good teams, great
opportunities to compete, and he squander them a little bit
early in his career, he yanked him early a couple
times when he did nibble and put guys on, and
I just wonder like if he messed with Festa's mentality
enough where now when he gets guys on, he feels like, oh,
if I walk this next guy, I'm coming out of
the game.
Speaker 1: So I better try to make a pitch here.
Speaker 2: But every time he tries to make that pitch, it's
it's middle, middle, and it's and it's smoked.
Speaker 1: For a double or a home run.
Speaker 2: So it's just something I've noticed sort of watching him
a lot, like through the miners and now never did
that in the miners because I don't think he ever
feared getting You know, if a guy, they're not taking
you out of the game in minor league baseball unless
you hit a pitch count.
Speaker 1: They don't care.
Speaker 2: I mean, you could be giving up six to seven
runs if you haven't hit that pitch count yet, you're
probably not coming out. That's that's more developmental. At the
big weegue level, it's about winning games. I think bald
Delly maybe messed with his confidence a little bit and
now he's gonna have to work on that, but tough
to work on that against the Cubs. I agree with you, Brian,
that might be something I play today. All Right, Sorry
for being long winded there. I thought it was an
interesting conversation, and you know, I think that's the reason
that that people watch this show. So we're going a
little deeper talking about fest and mids. It missing over
the middle and it starts, but we're gonna move on
to your Guardians, Brian Leonard. Can they do it? Victoria
wants to know. Can they sweep the Houston Astros. I
talked about this yesterday for a minute. I said, hey,
ten game losing streak, they get the win in the
fashion they did, maybe it gets them going a little bit.
Certainly looks like it has. Do you like the Guardians
to get it done today?
Speaker 3: Kid Sigoni going for Cleveland and Lefty Walter going for Houston.
This I believe this is a third time in four
games the the Guardians are face to Lefty. That's probably
positive for them. Walter is about a one forty three
favorite total eighths to the under minus one twenty. Chraconi
is a guy that a lot of people and Cleveland
thought that could do something with him coming into this
season three point five six ERA five point two to
one expected one point three to one whip. He's not
pitched as good as his numbers say based on his
expected DRA And if you take a look at the
sec cast page first percentile and average Aaxson velocity first percentile,
and chase rate first percentile and hard hit rate second
percent island barrel percentage. Yeah, he can get hit hard,
and he's getting going up against this Houston team who's
got very good hitters on the team, regardless of who
they have that's injured. I will say, even though I
had Houston yesterday, that bottom of the Houston lineup now
with the former shortstop short I believe it is his
name for Detroit, he just doesn't get it done there.
They really need Penia to come back right now. He
says he's not hurt as much as what they say.
Who knows, but Pina. You know, obviously he's having a
terrific season. They need him back in the lineup. Walker
four point one five ERA three point one nine expected
very good one point one to three whip. His basketball
velocites only in the fourteenth percentile and his shrekout rate
is twenty two point eight. That's that's going to come back.
One of those is telling you something while the other
one's telling you just the opposite. I think it's going
to come back. Who got a walter and every time
he comes up to pitch. He's one of the guys
that the Tokyo Brianon loves. He's only had a one
point four percent walk rate on the season and thirty
four point two innings thirty three strikeouts, so he's got
a right now. He's got a twenty one point four
strikeout much walk ratio that is elite. I don't think
it's going to continue, but I've talked about this when
you've got lefties that people don't know very well. And
he hadn't pitched since twenty twenty three. He only had
twenty three innings in there, all out of the bullpen.
He's a guy I'm looking to back. Average x Velostiti
ninety fifth percentile walk right, one hundredth obviously ninety fourth
chase er eight. I like him a lot better than
the Cleveland pitcher here, and I was a little bit
surprised by the line being as low as it was
after I would spend the last couple of days. I
will say that the closer for Houston give up that
Grand Slam, best closure in baseball, in my opinion, he
will be out tonight. He's not going to be able
to pitch back to back. Cleveland want to take you
when you take a look at the Cleveland bullpen a
little bit different. We've got Manuel class A pitched three
straight games. He's not going to be in the game tonight.
Hunter Gaddis pitched three straight games. He's not going to
be in the games tonight. In fact, these guys, you
guys that don't usually pitch more than twice. Even from
the Indians brock As they talk about Sorry Guardians broadcast,
they talked about that yesterday Gaddis didn't have it and
they said that he's never pitched a third game in
a row. Class A, luckily you only had to throw
fifteen pitches. But Smith has been injured and he did
not look good yesterday once again. So if Cleveland bullpen
is going to be using a lot of guys are
usually pitching the fifth and sixth innings, or Houston's got
their seventh and eighth inning guys available, I prefer the
Houston side here. Won't get involved with it. From adding perspective,
they beat me bat so bad yesterday, I don't want
to get back on them. But it seems to be
a smart play here. If you're taking Houston with this
price range.
Speaker 4: This is going to be my leg of the parlay.
I'm going to take the Astros on the money line here.
I can't see them getting swept by this Guardians team.
The Guardians' bats were struggling, but I didn't think meeting
Houston would wake their bats up. But it seems to
have woken their bats up a bit. I didn't think
they were capable of putting eight runs on the board,
but they certainly are now. However, like Brian said, Walter
his balls to his bases on balls to strikeout ratio.
It's amazing. I have him ranked higher than Chacone. I've
never liked Chacony, even when he was with the Diamondbacks.
Just inconsistent. You know, he can go five innings shut out,
and then the next game he'll come back and give
up six runs. It just don't He's a wild card.
He's a joker in the deck. You know, you don't
know what to get from him. However, I think Walter
is more consistent. The Houston bullpen is much better than
the Guardians bullpen at the moment Brian mentioned they won't
be able to use their closer. It's probably good that
they can't use their closer the way he's pitching. So
the lineup for Houston also much better than Cleveland's. I
don't see how they can get swept here, but you know,
this is gambling and this is baseball. Any team can
win on any day. However, I think Cleveland's already won
the series. They might be taking their foot off the
gas a little here, and they don't have their good
arms to leverage. I like the Astros in this one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't really disagree with the Astros. I mean
I do think.
Speaker 2: I do think it's crazy the amount of love this
after team is getting. Thomas bow In the chat says
yesterday or eighty five percent on the Astros the day before,
like very very like publicly backed team.
Speaker 1: But which is which makes sense.
Speaker 2: It also tells me that the average person betting baseball
is is way too tuned in to like what the
record of the team is, because, as Brian said, this
is I rate out lineups for Triple A.
Speaker 1: Okay, I rate individual players lineups.
Speaker 2: A lot of my Triple A betting is is based
on who's in the lineup, what the bullpen used toes,
which is not that different than MLB. But I do
think the lineup matters far more at the Triple A level.
Humble dubon short Trammel is a bad lineup for sugar Land.
That's a bad lineup at sugar Land. I had sugar
Lands lineup rated low this year. Corona like this is
not that that wasn't a good lineup at Triple A.
So so why would that be a team that you
want to rush through the window and put your money
on at the big league level? That is crazy to
me now with this game, just particularly this game. The
reason I don't disagree with you with the Astros is
going back to the point you guys both made about
the Guardian's bullpen some usage. I'm really not high on Secconi,
so you know, I think the Astros have an edge
with Walter on the mound. So all of those things
kind of put me on the Astros here. But this
is not a team that I really want to be
backing long term. However, for today, I am kind of
with you. I think they could avoid the sweep. I
certainly wouldn't play against the Astros here, but I am
just not confident in them long term.
Speaker 3: Go ahead, Brian, Yeah, you talked about the Houston. The
bottom of the Houston lineup, the bottom of the Cleveland lineups,
just as bad Garrochio batting ninth, Big Christmas Noel batting eighth,
bow Naylor seventh and half time, they're putting hedges in there,
which is the worst hitting catcher in the history of baseball,
I think. But he's a great defensive player and he's
loved in the clubhouse on how Martinez batting six. Martinez
hit that Grand Slam yesterday, but he really hasn't done much.
And I do want to point out, and I don't
get this website enough enough accolades Fangrafts does a great
job with their roster resource. I've been following Martinez and
his roster resource for a long time, and they actually
rank the last seven days and overall for power ratings
for all the hitters and also the pitchers, and as
as Brandon pointed out, the Cleveland bullpen over the last
fourteen days, none of their key guys are in the
top one hundred Class A one oh four, Goaddus two
forty six, Kate Smith three or two seventy eight, and
Tim Herron two twenty two. So they even though they've
pitched lately, Aaron hasn't, but the other guys have, they
have not performed well at all. So if you don't
have Tokyo Brandon's numbers, you can get a pretty good
approximation by just going to uh fangraphs and things like
sixty dollars a year. Well worth the money and I
get a lot of my information from there. But they
do a fantastic job and it tells you who's hot
and who's not basically and something if you're playing you know,
the DFS and things like that, that's something that you
would definitely want to want to have at your disposal.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Fangraphs is is an elite website.
Speaker 2: That's that's a must have if you're That's one where
if you're betting Major League Baseball on a daily basis,
I truly don't understand how you're doing it without without
that website.
Speaker 1: It is.
Speaker 2: It gets as good as it gets. Scar Brother, that's
an understatement Braves. I tweeted this out like in the
third inning, I said the Braves was my worst call
of the year, Like I really truly believe that was
that was my worst bet of the year, worst call
the year. And listen, like listen, sometimes good call, good
good handicaps lose, bad handicaps win. I think it's important
to acknowledge, like like, do some you know, after you
make a bet, the bet finishes. Is it a game
where you know, like, for example, I'll give a quick example,
like I lost one of my minor league baseball plays
last night. I've been very hot minor league baseball lost
with the Iowa Cubs. What one of the people that
is betting them, one of my clients sort of texted
me and was like, you know, kind of like, you know,
joking that I was. I think I had won nine
in a row before that, And I was like, you
know what Iowa Cubs is a bet I would make again,
say they had six un earned runs, They used the
pictures I expected them to use, they had a loaded lineup,
it just didn't work out. The Braves, on the other hand,
I'm kicking myself for because I came on the show,
and I was like, why is this kid in the
big leagues right?
Speaker 1: Like Diddy or Flentes. I couldn't understand it.
Speaker 2: Four starts or five starts at double A, one at
Triple A, they had him in the big leads. I
sort of talked myself into the thought process that Okay,
he's still here after four starts. Maybe they've seen something
in him. Maybe he's going to turn the corner. Brian Leonard,
I'm now just of the in the of the mindset
that the Braves are such a mess. I think guys
in that this is what's incredible is five years ago
this team was getting all the praise in the world
for how the organization was run, the coaching from top
to bottom, the front office moves. They won a World
Series back in twenty twenty one. Some of the things
that they've done since are puzzling. We have a lot
of people that want to talk A's Braves, and we're
going to do that right now. My opinion on the
Braves keep guys that keep the players, keep Austin Riley,
keep Matt Olson, keep Akuda, get.
Speaker 1: Rid of anyone that has anything to do with management.
Speaker 2: Bringing a new coach, new new management and let him
win with those players. As far as winning with those
players today, Brian, I truly am am at a loss.
I can't bet Bryce Elder, but I don't want to
bet the A's either.
Speaker 1: So what do we do here, Braves?
Speaker 3: As if I was with Atlanta, I would look to
fire the pitching coach. I would look to fire the
anybody that has something to do with pitching, because that's
been their problem this year. All their starters got hurt.
And I came out and I was very emphatic about this.
The other day. I said, we've got a veteran team.
They just lost Schwellenbach for the season. They've already lost
say oh, they've already lost two guys before the season started.
It's just a semblance, a small semblance of what they
expected to have. And then they go out and lose
five straight games. And I don't think I went against
them in every single game. So it's my own fault.
It's it's something that I was very emphatic about, and
I haven't taken advantage of it. My own stupid fault.
But I don't want Elder here. Elder is terrible. You
take a look at what he's done so far. He
comes in with a five point nine to two expected
DRA six point zero five point nine two actually RA
six point zero expected. His whip or his whip is
one point five to two. Last year it was one
point six y three. He's in the first percentale of
pitching run value first percent of fastball run value speed
run value second percentile, expected batting average third expected ERA.
He is the younger brother of Sensatela for Colorado, There's
no way I want to back him. His opponent on
the mound today, obviously, is Mitch Spence, one of those
guys that are trying to stretch out become a starter.
Will be his seventh start of the season. Last year
he was decent in that regard, considering how bad Oakland
was or other the A's. He comes in with the
four point zero six ERA five point zero one expected
one point three one whip. He struck out to walk
Raytio thirteen point two. Not great, but still better than
his opponent. Barrel rate six percentiles concerning average as velocity
fourteen percentile expected to get twelve percent out. Still better
than what Atlanta has done here. And you're getting a
team in the athletics for a younger team that our
play better and if you remember, they were been terrible
at home earlier in the season, starting to figure this
place out a little bit, it would not surprise me
if the Braves go on and lose every game going
into the All Star Break, donate part of them here.
If I'm playing this, I'm playing the home dog.
Speaker 4: Regarding this matchup, I think Spence started the season pretty well.
As a matter of fact, in my rankings, I have
him ranked slightly above average. But if you look at
his last few starts, he's been awful. I don't know
if awful. Maybe the awful is too harsh, but he's
given up what ten runs in his last three starts.
He's kind of fallen off a little bit. Maybe he's
not used to going this deep into the season. I
don't know what it is. But compared to Bryce Elder,
Elder's given up twenty one runs in his last four stars.
That's so horrific. That is horrific. He's been so bad.
And the problem is, I mean, given the fact that
this ballpark is really tiny, I think taking an over
would be the way to go here. But Atlanta's bats
are not producing right now. They have so much talent
on that lineup, but they're just not producing. You would
think Olsen guys like that would be smashing it even
if the Braves are not playing well, but they're not.
So I mean, my first, my first inkling is to
take an over in this one. But Atlanta's bullpen's performing
quite well right now, so that would make me say
maybe not. And also Atlanta can't hit right now, so
maybe not. So I'll think about an over, but I'm
not sure quite yet.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so the tough part about over which I and
I don't at the big league level. I try not
to put too much stock into individual players, but I
think it's worth noting that Jacob Wilson got drilled in
the hand, left the game last night. Kind of be
surprised if he's out there that looked it looked painful,
like it looked like the type of reaction where you're
not going to see the guy next to you, just
pray that something's not broken. I don't know if he's
at X rays yet or not, but that would be
a substantial loss for the A's.
Speaker 1: I mean, he's the best contact hitter on that team.
Speaker 2: And then of course the late scratch, early last like
like probably an hour before the game, Ronald Lacuna out
of the lineup for the Braves. Again, at the big
league level, it's not as big of a deal, but
do you want to take an over with the most
arguably the two most productive hitters in the game not
in the lineup? That being said, do you want to
bet an under with Bryce Elder and Mitch Spence like
Spence will get some swing and miss. The one thing
I do think you make a good point TV. The
Braves bullpen collectively has been very good. It's just they
lack the leverage guys in like the ninth inning. That's
where they've struggled this year. Is is the final three
outs of the game. Overall, the bullpen numbers are pretty
good for the Braves, So like there is you know,
but I just I don't know what they're doing right now.
I don't know why Didney or Flentis was out the
second inning last night, like after it was I mean, listen,
that was a five.
Speaker 1: Nothing game after the first inning.
Speaker 2: Five runs in that ballpark is not insurmountable by any means,
and they brought him back out for the second inning.
It was like I just saw a lot of waving
the white flag from the Braves like and then all
of a sudden it's it's nine to ten nothing. Well,
then the game's obviously over at that point. So I
could sit here and say, well, you know, Elder doesn't
have to go particularly deep because they have the bullpen
arms and they could they could, you know, sort of
piece it together like that. But I just I don't
know what's going on. I have no faith in the
Braves sort of managing this game a certain way. Are
they just gonna leave Elder out there to get bond
They like him to get five six innings. So for
that reason, it's probably as a's or passed for me
as well, because I know, even if Jacob Wilson isn't
in there, Brian Leonard, that the A's when they come
off of a win and they've got that energy, they're
gonna give an effort. Their young kids, they they they're
they're happy to be there even in their situation.
Speaker 1: I think it's a's or pass go ahead, Brian.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you mentioned acronia at the last minute, being a
being a scratch that had to have some kind of
effect on the Braves. They waited for them all stays
a long to get back. He's been great. He made
the All Star team. Believe is he in the home
run derby? I'm not sure if he.
Speaker 1: Was supposed to be supposed to be Probably isn't now,
but yeah.
Speaker 3: And then him to become up laying right before the game,
that's got to be a gut rencher also for them.
So there was plenty of reasons for them not to
in retrospect obviously to not have a good game yesterday,
We'll see what happens to me.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And that was one of those where a couple
of people messaged me and they're like, oh, Coon is out,
and I'll again admit it was a terrible call.
Speaker 1: I messaged right back.
Speaker 2: I said, doesn't matter one player in a game like that,
not a huge deal.
Speaker 1: I truly don't think it mattered.
Speaker 2: I think if Akuona played, they're still losing by ten
with the wave went his pitch, But yeah, it certainly
didn't help. And if that Braves lineup comes out later
and he's not in it again, I would say, Colin,
I think that's the only reason that I could kind
of would would hesitate on the overt of Akuna and Wilson.
I just don't know if I can bet a full
game over taking two like plus eight hundred ops guys
out of you know, because you need you know, you're
gonna need runs from both teams most likely. That would
make it tough to bet and over It's it's a
tough there's a tough game. But I thought I really
just wanted to bring that one up so I could
own up to the horrible call, and the Braves didn't
want to gloss over that that was awful, Okay, Steve Duke,
Speaking of Washington, what is up with Mackenzie Gore?
Speaker 1: Brian Leonard?
Speaker 2: Is this another case of just guys been asked to
go out every fifth day, eat up innings, be the
ace of the staff. It's now getting to the mid
July and he maybe just needs a little bit of
a break. It's a long season because Gore really has
been their best pitcher. Not being said, I don't hate
the matchup here for the Nats to maybe score some runs.
Speaker 1: They've been good against right handed pitchings. So how are
you seeing this one? This is McKenzie Gore. I think
it's Andre Pilonte Nats Cardinals.
Speaker 3: Yeah, McKenzie Gore three point one one, one point two
to one, whip three point five too expected the IRA.
He's got a three and eight record. They have not
hit for him, this Washington team. We do like their bats,
their young bats on this team, but he hasn't had
a lot of backing behind him. His barrel rays, his
hard hit rate, and his ground ball rate are all
less than fifty percent. That's always a concern. Average ex
velocity thirty fourth percentile. So when he's getting hit, he's
getting hit pretty well. But his chase rate is excellent,
whiff rate, strikeout rate, extension all excellent. He's a very
good pitcher, and he would be more well known if
they were to trade him to another team, even though
he's probably their best player, their best starter now on
the team and in the dear future. This is not
a team right now that is really serious contenders. If
if he got to be traded, if he was traded
at the trade deadline, it would not surprise me they
could bring in another hall of younger players for team
like the Yankees. The Yankees are a team that definitely
needs starters. But he's going today. The line on the
game right now is Polante for Saint Louis about a
one to fifteen favorite seven and a half. Kind of
a low total here for Saint Louis mid middling ballpark
with the offenses release two teams. Plantes actually pitched pretty
well as of late. His numbers have been pretty good.
He's been a little bit up and down on the season.
They're nothing great. Four point one zero ERA, four point
one six, expected one point to a whip. He's a
great ground ball pitcher ninety nine percentiles or doesn't give
up the home runs. That's a big thing with him.
Shrek at montchewalk ratio only eight point zero, not the greatest,
so he's not going to strike anybody out, and expected
batting average in the nineteenth percentile. But other than that,
he's he's a league average pitcher here. So you know,
the pitching edge goes to Washington here, but Saint Louis
is the better ball club. I'm going to have to
pass on this one. I really have nothing, nothing worthy
of a wager on this one.
Speaker 4: Again, guys, we would really appreciate if you go to
the replay of this and leave us a comment and
leave us alike. It helps us a lot and it
shows wager talk that you're interested and engaged in our show,
and we definitely appreciate that, and also go down to
our pages in the scroll to see what we're offering today.
I have two MLB plays out already. Regarding this matchup.
I don't know why you say what's up with Gore
because I think he's performing quite well. Actually, if you
look at his last few starts, he had one clunker
against the Dodgers, which is forgivable given their lineup. He's
given up two or less earned runs in his other
five starts. Other than that, they're all quality starts. He's
pitching like a stud. You're right, his win lost record
is not there. But as Brian and I have said many, many,
many many times, the win loss record doesn't mean anything
as far as a reflection of how good the pitcher is.
A win loss record just means that your lineup is good,
or your lineup is bad, or your bullpen's good or
your bullpen's bad. The win, really, the pitcher has very
little to do with getting a win. Besides going five
innings and Gores going five innings as well, he's going
five six, five, six, six, seven. I mean, he's a stud.
I don't know why you say what's up with him? However,
Polante is also really in good form now. He's gone
seven five six four six four. Yeah, the fours not
real great, but you can forgive that in his last
four starts he's given up only five earned runs. Polonte
is pitching really well right now. Lineup wise, the Cardinals
have been dead. Their bullpen is average in current form.
That doesn't mean I'm not evaluating them on the whole season.
Washington's bullpen about average there as well. But Washington is
really crushing the ball right now. And they're a team
that I've been saying, show after show after show. They
got a lot of good young guys. They got base stealers.
These guys can put runs up. I would take maybe
a Washington team total here. Washington team totals, I don't
know the numbers, but they've got to be cashing at
a huge clip right now because the book really slights
this team gives them three and a half quite often.
I don't know if it's three and a half today.
I don't know Polante's pitching well too, so that's kind
of making me lay off of it. But if I
went anyway in this, it would be either Washington or
the Washington team total.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like the Nats here. You know, you make
a good point, like Gore has been fine. You know,
he had one bad start, He's pitched well. Brian brought
it up. They just they just haven't hit for him.
We've seen this over the over the course of time
with aces, especially what like aces on teams that aren't
like top teams. We've seen, you know, we've seen like
Jacob de Gram of those Mets teams that weren't great
always comes to mind where it was like the dude
was putting up cy young numbers and just never got
any run support. I don't know if it's a mentality
thing where where maybe you're like, he's got us right,
like we don't need to do as much. But it's
hard to explain. It's hard to explain what it does happen.
That being said, the Nationals have hit right handed pitching
this year. They've been great against right handed pitching. So
when I look at a Nats game, going back to
what you said, Tokyo Brando, yeah, Brandon, Yeah, they get
slighted by the books and then there's another layer to
that because they they're line up the way it's constructed
now with wood and like it's very left heavy. So
not only do they get slighted by the books, but
then you've got these splits where they're numbers like the
number for this game. Then being on an underdog is
contingent on what they're doing in all games. Their numbers
offensively are much better against right handed pitching. So this
almost feels like the sort of home run spot to
back the Nationals because you have your best pitcher on
the mound, you're getting a plus money, it's a good price,
and you're getting to face a right handed pitcher that's
not a super dominant right handed pitcher.
Speaker 1: Also come off of a loss.
Speaker 2: You know, Cardinals had to use a couple leverage arms
last night, so it does feel like a good spot
to go Nationals.
Speaker 1: We're up. You know what.
Speaker 2: That's we've got seven minutes of the show left. Let's
close out the parlay. I'm gonna go Nationals money line
here for my parlay leg What do we have Brian
Leonard for a price on Astro's money line and Nats
money line, and we'll get one more game in before
we're out of here. But this is gonna be my
parlay Leake here. I like the Nats in this spot.
Speaker 3: Houston's about a one forty two favorite and Washington is
about plus one oh four.
Speaker 1: I would say, yeah, I like how that sets up.
Speaker 2: Like I said, you've got the Nats with their best
pitcher on the mound, they hit right handed pitching. Well,
they're coming off of a close loss, which means Cardinals,
so to use a couple of leverage arms. And I
do think some of that is anecdotal. It's luck based,
Like I know, we can call up to the groam
thing and like there's been times in history where teams
have not hit for aces. I think it gets a
little bit overblown. I think there's some randomness to that.
For me, it's Nats against right handed pitching, they typically hit.
I'll trust that they do enough today. I do like
the Nationals, and that closes out our parlay, so I
want to go to one more game. First of all,
Jesse Schule, thank you for tuning in. And Jesse makes
a great point. Now I don't know if I'm gonna
bet this, but he makes a good point. He says, man,
this must be the mother of all letdown spots for
the Jas today. Jesse, I thought the last two days
might be the mother of all leftown spots for the Jays,
and they just keep pounding. So we kind of talked
about it yesterday. I did bring up on yesterday's show.
I had no interest in backing Aaron Sabale and I'm
glad that I didn't. However, Brian Leonard, the White Sox
does look a little bit more appealing to me today.
That being said, I don't know if I'm going to
get to the window with this one, but I don't
disagree with our friend Jesse.
Speaker 1: I think he's got onto something.
Speaker 2: If there was a letdown spot for the Jas, it
feels like it's right here.
Speaker 3: What do you think if it a letdown spot for
the Jay's, it would have been after they swept the
Yankees and that didn't happen. So I'm not going to
stand in the way of that. Eric Lawer going two
really surprising pitchers to me, at least based on what
they've done in their history. Eric Lawer a lefty going
for Toronto, Adrian Hawser going for the White Sox. They've
both been very good. I don't know what they've done.
I have to look into it a little bit more
of what they've done from the pitch selection. But Lawer
comes in basically about a one fifty favorite eight and
a half on this. I wouldn't have a fault a
buck going either way here or taken the under based
on the way these pitchers have gone. Eric Lawer the
record four and one, two point sixty five ERA, three
point two to one expected one point oh two whip.
It didn't pitch last year in the majors. The year before,
he's expected ERA was seven point five four in a
similar amount of innings forty six point two compared to
fifty one here. So this is what you would call
a surprise. But if you take a look at his
deckcast page, it makes a lot more sense. The ground
ball rate ten percentile sension twenty third, average ex velocity tenth,
basketball velocity fourteenth. I just think he's been very fortunate
so far on the season. Arian Hauser, very similar to that.
That comes in one point six to oh ERA after
fifteen and two thirds innings three point five well expected.
That tells you right there he's been lucky. One point
one to one whip. He's been great in the barrel
percentage eighty eighth percentile extension eighty seventh, the ground ball
r seventy four but with rate nineteen percentile strike out
rate twenty third, hard hit twenty second. Both of these
guys are living on borrow time a little bit for me.
And you're looking at a total of eight and a
half here, and this is a pretty good hitters ballpark
in this one with Toronto's how does their bats on
Despite how these guys are pitched so far, It's going
to turn around for them a little bit eventually. And
I think I'm not buying into it. I would play
the over eight and a half here a if I
had to be involved in this one.
Speaker 4: I said at the beginning of the show that I
have two plays out in MLB today. I'm going to
give you one of them right now. This is a
play that I actually have up for sale. So buy
my other play. But this play is labeled as this
play is labeled as Toronto versus the White Sox, so
you'll know which is which. So Houser Howser Hauser, very
interesting guy. He if you look at his last few starts, man,
he's a warrior. He's an iron man as far as
I'm concerned. Look how many innings He's pitched eight innings
seven innings, six point one five six, six point one
six six. Do you see a pattern here? He goes
quite deep into the games. And his outs prop today
is seventeen and a half. If you don't know what
that means, basically you take the outs and divide it
by three, So eighteen outs is six innings. So the
book is asking you, will he or will he not
finish six innings? I definitely think he will. Definitely. I
don't like to say because this is sports betting and
anything can happen. Nothing is a lock. But his over
seventeen and a half outs recorded is only minus one twenty.
I think it's really good value considering the numbers I
just rattled off to you, Looking at how he goes
against Toronto and his history, I would like his ops
to be a little lower. It is under seven point
fifty though, so to me, that's a green light to
take him today. I know the Toronto Bats can be
kind of scary, but as some people have been saying
in the chat, this could be a lotdown spot for them.
I think, Houser, if you like the White Sox, I
would definitely not bet him to win the game, and
I definitely would not take him plus one one and
a half runs. But I certainly would like Adrian Hauser
to go over seventeen and a half outs, which equals
six innings. I think he'll complete them.
Speaker 1: I don't disagree with that one bit. I think.
Speaker 2: So here's what I've noticed about White Sox and the
way we'll Venable is managing. He's managing the White Sox
right now very similar to the way teams manage at TRIPAA.
It's really he's turned the White Sox into a developmental team. Essentially,
they're thirty and sixty two. He's a first year manager.
The everything they're doing right now is for next year. Okay,
so he is. He is playing everyone. If you've watched
the White Sox lineups the last week or two, it's
it's very rotated. The guys on the bench are not
sitting on the bench for more than a day. He's
getting everyone at bats and like very much like Triple A.
He he's gonna let Houser pitch unless he's just in
such a bad spot that he he doesn't want to.
You know that it would be a confidence thing like
where it like like he he doesn't want to you know,
if he's in and he just doesn't have it, he's
gonna go take him out.
Speaker 1: But like, very similar to Sean Burke the other night.
Speaker 2: You know he he let Burke go into the sixth inning,
get into trouble. Yeah, then he gave up the big hit.
Then he went and got him, but he still went
eighty five pitches. That will be the same for Houser, Like,
there's no there's no like, hey, like, let's go get
him in the third inning or the fourth inning because
we got to get out of a big spot and
then we're we're gonna have to worry about the next
six innings. It's no like we want to see what
you've got, see if you can work out of it.
If you don't, we're thirty and sixty two, it's not
a big deal, right, Like, So that's very much how
he's managing. And so I think that lends itself to
like your outs prop over TV, Like he's gonna go
his full allotment of pitches unless he's getting absolutely pummeled,
which he's He's shown no evidence that he'll get absolutely
pummeled here. Every start has been pretty good. I talked
about him when he was on Round Rock and the
Rangers were upset that he didn't clear waivers because they
wanted to sign him back. He threw an eight inning
shutout in that final start at Triple A for Round Rock,
and since he's gotten to to Chicago, every start has
been six innings. Last time out, eight innings against the
Rockets and corus Field, two hits, four runs, right like
that start before, seven innings against the Giants, six and
a third against this Blue Jays team. That's the one
concern for me is the fact that the Jays maybe
just saw him and they could maybe you know, they're
gonna have more information going into this start against him
than they did the last one.
Speaker 1: But he's thrown the ball extremely well.
Speaker 2: If you're just straight up talking about a last in
this game, I could absolutely see him going six innings,
giving them a reasonable start and giving the White Sox
a chance to win the game. I have to go
back to a couple of the chat comments, though I'm
kind of in no rush to fade the Blue Jays
right now.
Speaker 1: I agree with Brian Leonard.
Speaker 2: I do think the letdown spot, or the one that
made the most sense, was Monday, after the sweep of
the Yankees, and I very much like Eric Loward, but
I'll ride with you TV. I think you're onto something
with Howser staying in the game. He's been so consistent
and Venable's not going to take him out if he's
throwing the ball.
Speaker 1: Good go ahead, Brian.
Speaker 4: And it's not exactly fading the Blue Jays either.
Speaker 3: So I want to talk about some people have mentioned
Ross Benjamin in the chat. He's been on hell of
around with his free players. The reason why we don't
mention him is he doesn't come in and join the comments.
We bring out Jesse Shol will bring up other guys
from the site to come in and join the discord here.
That's helping us. Ross congratulations, he's having a great run.
But unless he's in there every day talking and giving information,
it's a one way street. So tell if you're a
client has tell him to jump in. We'd love to
hear from him. I know he's hot, as Helle, and
have him join the talk.
Speaker 2: Maybe we can let and for sure, like next time
one of us is is out. I love the three
person panel. I'm gonna be a little bit more proactive
about like trying to trying to book a third guest,
so we still have the three person back and forth.
So I'll definitely be be reaching out to Ross to
see if he get actually fill in for me. Probably
two weeks from now, I am going to a day
game in Erie, Pennsylvania. I'm gonna go try to see
Max Clark play some baseball while he's in Eerie. So
so I'll need to fill it. So maybe we get
Ross to do that Wednesday. It would be fun to
chat with him. And yeah, like same thing though, I
mean I talked to Brian Power every day. He wins
and I'm not. I'm not gonna shout him out on
here and let's se in the chat. He knows that
though anyway. But we appreciate all of you guys in
the chat. We appreciate the comments on the show, all
the likes, the subscribes. We need to hit one of
these parlays. I keep saying that we're due. We are
are slowly like infringing on our low water mark of
the year. Actually no, that's not true. Our low water
We hit the very first parlay. It was like six
to one, so we're still not down that much or
we're still above that so but we are trending in
that direction. We would like to get this get one
this week. This one's plus five ninety five. This would
be a nice one, nice little three teamer to sort
of get us back in the mix here. And so
one more time, that's gonna be Astro's money line for
Tokyo Brandon Cubs money line for Brian Leonard, Nationals.
Speaker 1: Money line for me.
Speaker 2: Three sides, three full game sides, Nat Cubs Astros.
Speaker 1: That's a three teamer today plus five ninety five.
Speaker 2: And like as every day, we appreciate everyone too, in
appreciate all the like subscribes. I wish we could do
this show for two hours or three hours to get
to every comment.
Speaker 1: We can't. I try to grab as many as we can.
Speaker 2: We try to hit as many games as we can
while we're still going sort of deep into games, because
we know that's why you guys show up. So there's
a three teamer. Hope we gave you some information that
you can make some good bets with today and we'll
be back tomorrow nine am to do it again. Appreciate
you guys, have a great day, and we'll see you
tomorrow nine am Eastern