WEBVTT 1 00:00:02.160 --> 00:00:05.360 Main in a light. Man like this man letting butterfly 2 00:00:05.480 --> 00:00:07.679 flapping his wing. They've down in a forest. Man, it 3 00:00:07.719 --> 00:00:11.359 gonna cause the tree fall, letting five thousand miles away. Man, 4 00:00:11.560 --> 00:00:12.919 nobody seen, nobody else. 5 00:00:17.519 --> 00:00:17.679 See. 6 00:00:18.000 --> 00:00:22.000 You don't need no man like you followed another and 7 00:00:22.120 --> 00:00:24.280 you got back to flect that I was still win. 8 00:00:24.399 --> 00:00:26.679 Man got black to night on the Panama Man. Man, 9 00:00:26.719 --> 00:00:29.719 you don't don't matter man anyway. 10 00:00:35.320 --> 00:00:39.399 All right, So before we get into this episode with Thomas, 11 00:00:39.640 --> 00:00:41.960 I think it's important to talk about what this show is. 12 00:00:42.280 --> 00:00:43.880 It's been a while since I've talked about it on 13 00:00:43.920 --> 00:00:47.679 my feet. This is Radio Free Chicago, which is a 14 00:00:47.880 --> 00:00:51.200 current affairs show I do twice a month with Thomas 15 00:00:51.240 --> 00:00:52.079 seven seven seven. 16 00:00:52.759 --> 00:00:53.039 Uh. 17 00:00:53.320 --> 00:00:55.799 When it first launched, it was only available on gum Road, 18 00:00:55.960 --> 00:00:58.119 and gum Road is kind of a difficult platform to 19 00:00:58.159 --> 00:01:01.159 work around. There were some people expressing satisfaction with that. 20 00:01:01.600 --> 00:01:05.359 So now we have two ways, you know, to view it. 21 00:01:06.000 --> 00:01:09.480 One there's the gum Road feed, and two we do 22 00:01:09.599 --> 00:01:13.680 alternating episodes on my substack and Thomas's substack. Right, So 23 00:01:13.719 --> 00:01:16.280 if you're a premium subscriber on my end, you've been 24 00:01:16.319 --> 00:01:19.439 seeing these about once a month likewise on Thomas's feed, 25 00:01:20.439 --> 00:01:23.079 and that's sort of a commediate way for Thomas and 26 00:01:23.120 --> 00:01:26.200 I to split up the content. And also it gives 27 00:01:26.200 --> 00:01:28.560 you guys a better way to listen to it because 28 00:01:28.560 --> 00:01:31.879 gum road is a little bit troublesome. So this is 29 00:01:31.920 --> 00:01:34.359 on the free feed. Everyone is hearing this. If you 30 00:01:34.359 --> 00:01:36.159 want to hear more about this, I've just told you 31 00:01:36.200 --> 00:01:38.280 where you can find it. And also, if you're on 32 00:01:38.359 --> 00:01:40.959 gum road and you're sick and tired at gum road, 33 00:01:41.000 --> 00:01:43.799 I can't blame you. It's a difficult platform. Just send 34 00:01:43.879 --> 00:01:46.879 me an email from the email address you use on 35 00:01:46.879 --> 00:01:49.920 gum road and I'll comp you a one month on substack. 36 00:01:50.280 --> 00:01:52.400 That way, you're not paying double for it. You know, 37 00:01:52.439 --> 00:01:54.920 when the month is done, you'll resume, you know, paying 38 00:01:54.959 --> 00:01:57.159 what you paid on gum road. But you don't have 39 00:01:57.200 --> 00:02:00.439 to deal with their janky back end. So anyway, all 40 00:02:00.439 --> 00:02:03.120 that kind of housekeeping stuff out of the way. Thomas, 41 00:02:03.159 --> 00:02:04.439 It's it's good to see you again, man. 42 00:02:05.079 --> 00:02:09.000 Yeah. Likewise, thank you, my friend. It is the week 43 00:02:09.080 --> 00:02:14.039 of April twenty fourth, twenty twenty six. There's there's been 44 00:02:14.080 --> 00:02:17.159 some key developments in the world situation as well as 45 00:02:17.159 --> 00:02:20.759 the domestic situation, things appear to be in a holding pattern, 46 00:02:21.360 --> 00:02:27.039 but that that can be misleading, you know. And I 47 00:02:27.080 --> 00:02:31.479 think that's being somewhat deliberately curated because the administration's in trouble, 48 00:02:32.199 --> 00:02:35.759 I you know, and obviously, I mean, Trump isn't gonna 49 00:02:35.879 --> 00:02:39.039 He's he doesn't have to fight for incumbency moving forward, 50 00:02:39.960 --> 00:02:43.360 so presumably he can burn out down the proverbial house 51 00:02:43.400 --> 00:02:47.159 and it doesn't matter. But I and it don't get 52 00:02:47.159 --> 00:02:49.120 me wrong, I don't I don't think Trump's a principled guy. 53 00:02:49.120 --> 00:02:51.439 I don't think moving forward, he really cares what happens 54 00:02:51.439 --> 00:02:54.159 when he's out of the picture. But he is accountable 55 00:02:54.159 --> 00:02:56.560 to people. You know, he didn't he didn't build this 56 00:02:56.680 --> 00:03:01.800 thing that he's profited from for the lay decade on 57 00:03:01.840 --> 00:03:08.000 his own. And I think that, uh, I think that, 58 00:03:08.280 --> 00:03:12.240 you know, there's there's real concern about the way things 59 00:03:12.240 --> 00:03:16.360 have gone sideways with respect to this ill fated crusadingist Iran, 60 00:03:16.400 --> 00:03:18.319 and and crazy is that state. May it may seem 61 00:03:18.319 --> 00:03:22.199 to people that the rot run is deep and the 62 00:03:22.240 --> 00:03:26.759 conceptual literacy is total. I really believe that they, uh, 63 00:03:27.240 --> 00:03:31.919 the administration, thought that they could finangle some sort of 64 00:03:31.960 --> 00:03:36.759 profitable outcome from this assault in Iran, you know, and 65 00:03:36.960 --> 00:03:40.400 uh they they've got a totally misplaced confidence in the 66 00:03:40.439 --> 00:03:47.000 ability of of of military power to generate political outcomes. 67 00:03:47.400 --> 00:03:52.319 That's a long standing delusion in America, but it's been 68 00:03:52.319 --> 00:03:56.560 exacerbated by the fact that America's force structure is highly 69 00:03:56.599 --> 00:04:00.159 obsolescent at present. I mean, even were it not, they 70 00:04:00.560 --> 00:04:02.879 they God forbid to be killing a lot more people 71 00:04:02.919 --> 00:04:06.199 and Iran and and and Lebanon, and causing a lot 72 00:04:06.240 --> 00:04:09.439 more destruction and making these a lot more difficult for 73 00:04:09.800 --> 00:04:12.599 the people in the region. But I don't I don't 74 00:04:12.599 --> 00:04:19.360 believe even if there was a highly effective force structure 75 00:04:19.399 --> 00:04:22.879 in theater and and a lot more pressure being brought 76 00:04:22.920 --> 00:04:25.079 to bear on the military front, that I don't believe 77 00:04:25.079 --> 00:04:28.600 that the administration and the regime generally would be in 78 00:04:28.639 --> 00:04:32.720 any better position politically. But like we were talking before 79 00:04:32.759 --> 00:04:36.519 you went live in I Burden raised the point that 80 00:04:37.600 --> 00:04:44.240 there's a this they're the real the real share punk 81 00:04:44.319 --> 00:04:49.759 of of Zionists violence is in the Levant and and 82 00:04:49.839 --> 00:04:54.759 specifically the HESBLA and the Shia heartland in in in Beirut. 83 00:04:55.040 --> 00:04:57.120 I think that's true. I mean, don't get me wrong. 84 00:04:58.160 --> 00:05:02.040 The administrations primary target as I Ran, and if I 85 00:05:02.120 --> 00:05:06.839 Ran were to go down, that would neutralize has Blah 86 00:05:06.879 --> 00:05:12.639 for all practical purposes. But I, you know, but I 87 00:05:12.759 --> 00:05:18.240 but israel Is. I believe that the Israelis UH are 88 00:05:18.240 --> 00:05:21.879 more realistic on the military front, you know, despite the 89 00:05:21.920 --> 00:05:24.879 fact that I think that Yahoo's totally delusional in terms 90 00:05:24.879 --> 00:05:29.480 of the viability of of the Leacud state moving forward. 91 00:05:30.519 --> 00:05:34.800 I think Israel is using UH this sort of curated 92 00:05:34.879 --> 00:05:39.079 stalemate in terms of negotiation with I Ran, with Islamabad 93 00:05:39.120 --> 00:05:44.519 acting as a pseudo arbited arbiter, you know, under under 94 00:05:44.560 --> 00:05:50.480 the guise of neutrality. There the the ide f IS 95 00:05:50.480 --> 00:05:54.120 is using this as Ah as cover for all practical 96 00:05:54.199 --> 00:05:58.879 purposes to perpetuate a broad based assault on on Lebanon. 97 00:05:59.560 --> 00:06:03.360 And you know, like I said, Nazarala, who was a 98 00:06:03.399 --> 00:06:07.240 great man. I've been reading his book lately and I 99 00:06:08.199 --> 00:06:12.480 developed greater esteem from every day. But that aside, he 100 00:06:12.519 --> 00:06:15.439 had a better understanding of the military situation than your 101 00:06:15.480 --> 00:06:19.600 average you know, politician or cleric. And he came back 102 00:06:19.600 --> 00:06:23.160 to the point again and again, and Kamani echoed this 103 00:06:23.279 --> 00:06:29.199 to the the greater the the Israeli project of Laban's Row, 104 00:06:29.279 --> 00:06:31.439 which really has been under way since ninety forty eight 105 00:06:33.879 --> 00:06:39.120 that they covet UH. They covered the Lebanon and and 106 00:06:39.120 --> 00:06:44.800 and large swaths of a Syria outside the Goland Heights, 107 00:06:45.480 --> 00:06:47.920 and UH. The fact that there's not the there's not 108 00:06:48.120 --> 00:06:52.519 enough you know, racial Jews within their population to truly 109 00:06:52.560 --> 00:06:55.120 hold that territory. They don't care. They're not thinking in 110 00:06:55.120 --> 00:06:59.040 those terms, you know, they they're they're very much in 111 00:06:59.040 --> 00:07:02.920 a crisis modality and moving from one sort of punctuated 112 00:07:03.040 --> 00:07:07.639 UH crisis modality to the to the next, you know, 113 00:07:07.680 --> 00:07:12.800 within that wider paradigm, and you've got to understand, You've 114 00:07:12.800 --> 00:07:15.399 got you've got to understand Israeli and political and military 115 00:07:15.439 --> 00:07:19.480 ambitions within that kind of Laban's raw mediology and UH 116 00:07:19.639 --> 00:07:22.680 Lebanon has always played an essential role in that. And 117 00:07:22.720 --> 00:07:24.519 one of the reasons why Lebanon was sort of the 118 00:07:24.680 --> 00:07:29.439 jewel in the in the crown of of darl Islam 119 00:07:29.800 --> 00:07:32.199 and UH. One of the reasons it was always so 120 00:07:32.319 --> 00:07:36.720 contested between you know, Christian, Shia, Sunni and UH and 121 00:07:36.839 --> 00:07:41.639 the Jews is you know, it's UH, it's it's it's 122 00:07:41.680 --> 00:07:46.160 a viable water source, which is you know key, it's 123 00:07:46.360 --> 00:07:50.040 there there's maritime access to you know, key trade routes 124 00:07:50.079 --> 00:07:54.439 and things, you know, and traditionally, UH, within the Arab world, 125 00:07:55.000 --> 00:07:59.120 that's kind of where the natural elite was situated, a 126 00:07:59.199 --> 00:08:03.360 large percentage of or Christian you know. And it's so 127 00:08:03.399 --> 00:08:07.279 it's a complicated situation, but I I think that's very much. 128 00:08:08.680 --> 00:08:10.279 I think that's very much something it used to be 129 00:08:10.319 --> 00:08:14.680 considered in in an analytical capacity. And finally I'm gonna 130 00:08:14.720 --> 00:08:19.519 go over to Burden in a second. The UH, the 131 00:08:19.519 --> 00:08:24.319 peculiar relationship between Washington and Islamabad and this goes back 132 00:08:24.360 --> 00:08:27.600 to the early seventies. You know, I was talking the 133 00:08:27.680 --> 00:08:34.240 other day with Pete Q. You know when a wider 134 00:08:34.279 --> 00:08:37.559 discussion of UH, of the Cold War and how it 135 00:08:37.720 --> 00:08:42.759 sort of shaped policy in Central Asia in Warren peace capacities. 136 00:08:43.200 --> 00:08:47.320 You know, when UH, when Nixon was able to decouple 137 00:08:47.399 --> 00:08:54.399 Pey King from Moscow and Brezhnev, and that I mean, 138 00:08:54.440 --> 00:08:57.960 I believe the shadow is trifecta of the SOYT executive. 139 00:08:58.000 --> 00:09:01.000 Then was usnov On dropped un dropped off, and Gramco 140 00:09:01.200 --> 00:09:03.799 within drop of kind of at the helm they were 141 00:09:03.840 --> 00:09:09.639 able to flip India as a hedge against China, and 142 00:09:09.159 --> 00:09:13.919 and the Washington's response was the what was the flip 143 00:09:14.039 --> 00:09:21.200 Pakistan and the Indio Indo Pakistan war derived from that paradigm. 144 00:09:21.879 --> 00:09:24.279 And uh, you know, I believe that it's it's it's 145 00:09:24.279 --> 00:09:26.840 fairly obvious to me. I basically agree with Seymour Hearsh 146 00:09:26.879 --> 00:09:29.639 on the issue of the Ben Laden killing. You know, 147 00:09:29.759 --> 00:09:33.360 Islamabad had him under house arrest is SI. They don't 148 00:09:33.600 --> 00:09:36.519 work exactly hand in glove with American intelligence, but there's 149 00:09:36.600 --> 00:09:41.039 very good offices there with certain qualifications. It's a tense relationship, 150 00:09:41.080 --> 00:09:43.559 but it is more relationship of alliance than his enmity. 151 00:09:44.039 --> 00:09:46.080 You know. It's it's not an accident that that the 152 00:09:46.080 --> 00:09:51.600 Pakistanis are standing in as uh, this supposed neutral arbiter 153 00:09:51.759 --> 00:09:55.399 between Toronto and Washington. There are anything but however, that's 154 00:09:55.440 --> 00:09:59.720 an important aspect here too. There's this plan with an 155 00:10:00.159 --> 00:10:07.440 ends as as as the Benny Jester and his facing yield. 156 00:10:07.480 --> 00:10:10.279 Say in Dune, what I'm gonna go dover to burden 157 00:10:10.320 --> 00:10:12.320 now because I've been talking long enough, Like what do 158 00:10:12.320 --> 00:10:14.080 you think about these things or anything else? Man? 159 00:10:15.159 --> 00:10:18.879 Yeah, So the situation in Lebanon I think initially flew 160 00:10:19.039 --> 00:10:24.120 under the radar, uh, just because obviously there were there 161 00:10:24.159 --> 00:10:27.600 was less direct US involvement in Lebanon, and it seemed 162 00:10:27.600 --> 00:10:32.759 as if there was some degree of frustration towards Tel Aviv, 163 00:10:33.639 --> 00:10:39.080 basically like yeahttitude seemed to be, what are you lunatics doing? 164 00:10:39.559 --> 00:10:43.320 Isn't this enough war for you? And obviously Israel has 165 00:10:44.480 --> 00:10:49.919 occupied Lebanon before, uh, you know, I believe they exited 166 00:10:49.919 --> 00:10:52.879 in the early two thousands, at least formally, right, you 167 00:10:52.879 --> 00:10:54.159 would know better than I would, Thomas. 168 00:10:54.399 --> 00:10:56.720 Yeah, and then they fought his Bow in two thousand 169 00:10:56.720 --> 00:10:58.600 and six to a stalemate, but it was really a 170 00:10:58.639 --> 00:11:00.200 tactical defeat. But yeah, go ahead. 171 00:11:02.159 --> 00:11:06.200 And so it initially didn't really hit my news feed 172 00:11:06.360 --> 00:11:10.240 until this kind of weird initial two week cease fire 173 00:11:11.200 --> 00:11:14.840 because there was significant disagreement on whether Lebanon was included 174 00:11:14.879 --> 00:11:19.279 in that with the Iranians, of course, assuming that was 175 00:11:19.320 --> 00:11:23.000 the case, the Americans at least initially saying so, and 176 00:11:23.039 --> 00:11:25.399 then the Israelis going off and doing their own thing. 177 00:11:26.080 --> 00:11:29.879 This has been a particularly brutal campaign. Hundreds of civilians 178 00:11:29.879 --> 00:11:33.399 have been killed, and most recently it sort of came 179 00:11:33.440 --> 00:11:36.480 to a head when there was a photo of an 180 00:11:36.519 --> 00:11:40.919 IDF soldier next to an upside down statue of Jesus Christ. 181 00:11:40.919 --> 00:11:44.399 With a sledgehammer, having smashed his head off. This courted 182 00:11:44.679 --> 00:11:51.039 a massive international outrage and came after a relatively stupid 183 00:11:51.120 --> 00:11:55.600 but still notable event where Donald Trump posted an AI 184 00:11:55.679 --> 00:12:00.720 image of himself as Jesus healing the sick? Do I 185 00:12:00.720 --> 00:12:05.440 find that personally offensive? Not really to me. It's like, whatever, 186 00:12:05.480 --> 00:12:07.519 the guy has an ego. You didn't need to tell 187 00:12:07.559 --> 00:12:13.799 me that, right, But the combination of these two events 188 00:12:14.039 --> 00:12:18.440 has one provided an off ramp for certain people you 189 00:12:18.480 --> 00:12:22.200 could tell, who are getting uncomfortable with the situation where 190 00:12:22.200 --> 00:12:25.519 people who had you know, previously publicly very much allied 191 00:12:25.600 --> 00:12:30.039 themselves to Donald Trump, We're starting to get cold feet, 192 00:12:30.159 --> 00:12:32.840 and that provided a way for them to say, all right, 193 00:12:32.919 --> 00:12:37.360 I'm done. This hit the evangelical world, as you can imagine, 194 00:12:37.399 --> 00:12:42.200 particularly hard, and this has exacerbated an ongoing split within 195 00:12:42.320 --> 00:12:45.879 MAGA that we've been talking about for almost a year now. 196 00:12:47.600 --> 00:12:52.120 What's interesting on that front is now MAGA Inc. Which 197 00:12:52.200 --> 00:12:56.320 is basically made up of true Donald Trump slaves, and 198 00:12:56.360 --> 00:12:59.120 then the kind of neo neo cons right, those trying 199 00:12:59.159 --> 00:13:03.000 to completely and totally subsume the Party of Donald Trump 200 00:13:03.519 --> 00:13:06.960 back to It's kind of two thousand and six, you know, 201 00:13:07.080 --> 00:13:13.120 Roe been going hard against the so called podcasters right. 202 00:13:13.399 --> 00:13:16.360 That includes people like you and I, particularly kind of 203 00:13:16.759 --> 00:13:19.320 you know, hate figures like Nick Fuentes and Candice Owans, 204 00:13:19.720 --> 00:13:23.279 but also Alex Jones, for one, has come out hard 205 00:13:23.440 --> 00:13:28.159 against Donald Trump, and he has continued to be isolated. 206 00:13:28.799 --> 00:13:30.960 A lot of this also has to do with Tucker Carlson. 207 00:13:31.759 --> 00:13:35.440 Tucker Carlson had his brother Buckley on not too long 208 00:13:35.440 --> 00:13:37.080 ago for the second time. The two of them had 209 00:13:37.120 --> 00:13:40.159 sort of a casual conversation where they were talking about 210 00:13:40.200 --> 00:13:43.039 basically walking away from Trump. You know, guys who'd supported 211 00:13:43.120 --> 00:13:45.440 him for a long time, who due to you know, 212 00:13:45.480 --> 00:13:48.320 our relationship with Israel, basically said enough is enough. It 213 00:13:48.399 --> 00:13:51.200 was a mistake and talking about the you know, the 214 00:13:51.200 --> 00:13:53.879 twenty fifth Amendment. So take what you will from that. 215 00:13:54.200 --> 00:13:57.440 You know, it's not news to anyone listening to this show, 216 00:13:57.519 --> 00:14:00.360 but it is an interesting signal because the we all 217 00:14:00.399 --> 00:14:04.799 out attack on podcasters right, the traders from the perspective 218 00:14:04.840 --> 00:14:07.840 of our kind of newest batch of neo cons has 219 00:14:07.840 --> 00:14:15.399 been unrelenting, particularly as the DOJ has now indicted the 220 00:14:15.600 --> 00:14:20.559 SPLC for sending money sometimes the tune of two hundred 221 00:14:20.600 --> 00:14:24.840 and seventy eight thousand dollars to the leaders of hate groups. Right, 222 00:14:25.039 --> 00:14:27.000 we don't know who they sent money to. We do 223 00:14:27.120 --> 00:14:30.159 know that there were some involved at Charlottesville. But basically 224 00:14:30.240 --> 00:14:33.120 this is an old story, right, We've known about this forever. 225 00:14:33.240 --> 00:14:36.440 That effectively, the SPLC and other groups, if they don't 226 00:14:36.480 --> 00:14:41.240 find the sort of natural rate of racism or anti 227 00:14:41.279 --> 00:14:44.799 Semitism or hate all in scare quotes, they will produce it. 228 00:14:45.519 --> 00:14:47.600 Now why do I bring this up in conjunction with 229 00:14:47.679 --> 00:14:51.559 the war against podcasters Because if you've listened to me 230 00:14:51.600 --> 00:14:53.840 and Thomas talk on this show or even in my 231 00:14:53.879 --> 00:14:57.279 own work, you've heard me whining about this term the 232 00:14:57.320 --> 00:15:05.440 woke Reich, or as noted linguist Mark Levin says, the 233 00:15:05.559 --> 00:15:11.720 woke Reich very clever. But basically that claim is these people, 234 00:15:12.080 --> 00:15:15.679 this you know, the right wing edge of American politics. 235 00:15:15.879 --> 00:15:18.480 They are making us lose. They are the reason that 236 00:15:18.519 --> 00:15:21.879 all of these bad things are happening. And this SPLC 237 00:15:22.039 --> 00:15:25.519 indictment has been used to further that claim. Basically, oh, 238 00:15:25.559 --> 00:15:27.759 these people were not only traders, they were not only 239 00:15:27.879 --> 00:15:30.519 Russian assets, they were not only Chinese, they were not 240 00:15:30.559 --> 00:15:33.600 only you know, vile national socialists, which don't you know 241 00:15:33.759 --> 00:15:35.919 is just as much. It's just the same thing as 242 00:15:35.960 --> 00:15:38.480 the woke left on the college campus. Well, now this 243 00:15:38.600 --> 00:15:43.159 narrative has you know, stepped into place. Now several things 244 00:15:43.200 --> 00:15:44.960 can be true at once. Do I think the SPLC 245 00:15:45.159 --> 00:15:48.360 is a sketchy organization, Yeah, one hundred percent. Do I 246 00:15:48.399 --> 00:15:50.840 think it is somewhat deliberate that we don't know who 247 00:15:50.879 --> 00:15:54.840 was getting paid? Also one hundred percent, because it enables 248 00:15:54.879 --> 00:15:59.759 that narrative to strengthen. And I think that as the 249 00:16:00.039 --> 00:16:03.399 Publican Party and Donald Trump continue to take l's and 250 00:16:03.440 --> 00:16:07.840 they will continue to the pressure from the kind of 251 00:16:07.919 --> 00:16:11.200 nominal center right towards us, and our friends will continue 252 00:16:13.279 --> 00:16:17.000 talking about the kind of mounting pressure. This war is 253 00:16:17.039 --> 00:16:20.799 not popular. It has dominated the news. It's basically the 254 00:16:20.840 --> 00:16:25.039 only thing anyone talks about. And with that has come 255 00:16:27.000 --> 00:16:31.720 increases to fertilizer, to oil, to things that normal people use. 256 00:16:31.759 --> 00:16:34.399 It's starting to hit people in their pocketbook. Now, what's 257 00:16:34.440 --> 00:16:36.679 interesting is that when this first happened, you had the 258 00:16:36.759 --> 00:16:39.200 sort of finance pros basically saying like, oh, this is 259 00:16:39.240 --> 00:16:43.360 going to be bad, and prices are up, but not dramatically, 260 00:16:44.639 --> 00:16:46.919 and so people initially were saying like, oh, you know, 261 00:16:47.120 --> 00:16:49.480 rumors of you know, the devise of the American economy 262 00:16:49.480 --> 00:16:52.639 have been vastly overstated. Who knows. I'm not going to 263 00:16:52.679 --> 00:16:54.919 say this is mad Max, but it's important to understand 264 00:16:55.000 --> 00:16:59.279 how the oil market works, which is it works off 265 00:16:59.320 --> 00:17:03.639 of contracts, which means there's a lag time between when 266 00:17:03.679 --> 00:17:07.079 a price is struck and when you, as the consumer, 267 00:17:07.119 --> 00:17:10.519 actually have to bear the consequences of that. I believe 268 00:17:10.640 --> 00:17:13.200 that will hit by the end of the month. Basically 269 00:17:13.240 --> 00:17:20.039 we will be buying oil one hundred percent pretty much 270 00:17:20.039 --> 00:17:23.039 the entire market as far as I understand. I'm not 271 00:17:23.079 --> 00:17:26.440 a financial analyst, this secondhand information, but talking to people 272 00:17:26.480 --> 00:17:29.319 who know what they're saying to Basically, oil is almost 273 00:17:29.480 --> 00:17:32.400 entirely options in futures right, very little of it is 274 00:17:32.440 --> 00:17:38.200 bought at strike price. So point is that is going 275 00:17:38.240 --> 00:17:45.200 to massively ramp up. So the pressure will continue, particularly 276 00:17:45.240 --> 00:17:47.839 as we have you know, even the evangelicals who are 277 00:17:47.839 --> 00:17:51.200 Trump's some of his most devoted base starting to buckle, 278 00:17:51.319 --> 00:17:53.039 starting to say, well, wait a minute, you know, why 279 00:17:53.079 --> 00:17:55.960 are you giving money to the guys who are smashing 280 00:17:56.160 --> 00:17:59.720 statues of Jesus? Why are you posting photos of yourself? 281 00:17:59.720 --> 00:18:03.200 As now, not all he still has strong support within 282 00:18:03.200 --> 00:18:06.440 that coterie. But we've got to understand that's starting to weaken, 283 00:18:07.079 --> 00:18:08.920 and he is not in a position where he can 284 00:18:09.240 --> 00:18:14.039 afford to lose any support because other voting blocks, white, 285 00:18:14.079 --> 00:18:18.119 non college educated voters, young men have turned hard against 286 00:18:18.119 --> 00:18:22.720 Donald Trump for any number of reasons. While we're talking 287 00:18:22.759 --> 00:18:26.440 about sort of l's for the Republican Party, I think 288 00:18:26.440 --> 00:18:31.400 it's important to bring up this redistricting in Virginia today, 289 00:18:31.519 --> 00:18:34.400 the day that this is going to be posted, I 290 00:18:34.599 --> 00:18:38.200 released a monologue, which is rare for me, just fifty 291 00:18:38.200 --> 00:18:42.160 minutes of me talking about exactly this. So for those 292 00:18:42.160 --> 00:18:49.000 who aren't aware, basically, Virginia went from having a Democrat 293 00:18:49.119 --> 00:18:53.599 legislature and a Republican governor who was quite popular, fairly moderate, 294 00:18:53.640 --> 00:18:57.599 sort of Chamber of commerce type, to full control by 295 00:18:57.640 --> 00:19:01.039 the Democrats. And they have gone hammer and Tom after 296 00:19:01.359 --> 00:19:06.759 all of the Democrat things, right, so vastly reducing you know, 297 00:19:06.799 --> 00:19:10.799 sentencing for murder and rape, sort of sweeping gun control, 298 00:19:11.720 --> 00:19:16.880 you know, kind of going after religious and heritage institutions, 299 00:19:16.920 --> 00:19:21.279 sort of instituting very similar programs to the daycare fraud 300 00:19:21.359 --> 00:19:24.920 programs in Minnesota. It was a massive power grab, and 301 00:19:25.000 --> 00:19:29.799 part of that was redistricting so effectively, they were forced 302 00:19:29.839 --> 00:19:34.720 to put out a referendum on a proposed constitutional amendment 303 00:19:34.720 --> 00:19:37.319 which would allow them to redraw the voting map of 304 00:19:37.359 --> 00:19:42.359 the state, taking it from I believe five and six 305 00:19:42.759 --> 00:19:46.039 Republican and Democrat, which is pretty close to vote totals 306 00:19:46.519 --> 00:19:51.839 to a ten to one, I'm not mistaken. And the 307 00:19:51.920 --> 00:19:56.920 vote on that was remarkably close all things considered. It 308 00:19:56.960 --> 00:19:59.480 was less than a percent separated it. It was pretty close. 309 00:20:00.119 --> 00:20:04.079 And this was heavily pushed by the DC suburbs right 310 00:20:04.240 --> 00:20:08.000 nova Northern Virginia. Fairfax County alone, which is where the 311 00:20:08.039 --> 00:20:13.680 city of Arlington is, will receive five congressional districts. 312 00:20:13.839 --> 00:20:14.680 So it's a. 313 00:20:14.640 --> 00:20:17.799 Pretty transparent attempt to sort of rip the voting map. Now, 314 00:20:17.920 --> 00:20:21.000 big picture, this is something that's been happening for a while. Obviously, 315 00:20:21.079 --> 00:20:24.759 there was an unsuccessful attempt in Indiana, successful attempt in Texas, 316 00:20:24.799 --> 00:20:26.839 and it seems as if California is going through with 317 00:20:26.920 --> 00:20:30.440 the same thing. In my mind, this is is this 318 00:20:30.480 --> 00:20:33.240 is really the death of the purple state. There are 319 00:20:33.400 --> 00:20:38.759 very few toss up kind of bell weathers anymore. Both 320 00:20:38.839 --> 00:20:42.200 on the state level, states are looking to maximize their 321 00:20:42.240 --> 00:20:45.400 power right to sort of go full speed ahead. And 322 00:20:45.519 --> 00:20:50.200 also within the US, we've seen a ton of internal migration. Basically, 323 00:20:50.319 --> 00:20:53.880 you know, read voters from New England moved down to 324 00:20:53.920 --> 00:20:58.039 the southeast, same thing from California and vice versa. You know, 325 00:20:58.400 --> 00:21:02.400 democrats from Florida are At the same time, we're also 326 00:21:02.400 --> 00:21:05.400 seeing internal racial migration, for instance, a bunch of black 327 00:21:05.400 --> 00:21:09.400 float folks leaving kind of blighted cities in the Midwest, 328 00:21:09.480 --> 00:21:12.359 moving to Atlanta, moving to other areas. So that's sort 329 00:21:12.359 --> 00:21:14.720 of an interesting thing, right, We're seeing this sort of 330 00:21:14.920 --> 00:21:20.799 internal sorting. But it must be understood that that is 331 00:21:21.039 --> 00:21:24.680 a loss for the Republicans, right, They were hurting anyway. 332 00:21:24.960 --> 00:21:29.039 They were basically assured to lose the House, seem very 333 00:21:29.119 --> 00:21:32.240 likely to lose the Senate, and having you know, four 334 00:21:32.279 --> 00:21:34.559 of your seats taken away at the snap of a 335 00:21:34.880 --> 00:21:37.880 sap of you know, some guy's fingers, that that hurts 336 00:21:37.920 --> 00:21:43.480 an already difficult situation. Now, the Virginia case is interesting. 337 00:21:43.480 --> 00:21:45.200 We don't have the time to necessarily go into it. 338 00:21:45.240 --> 00:21:48.160 That will be a protracted legal battle for a number 339 00:21:48.240 --> 00:21:53.119 of reasons. One, they kind of broke a lot of 340 00:21:53.200 --> 00:21:56.200 rules to do it. Don't have time to get into 341 00:21:56.200 --> 00:21:59.359 the inner kind of the specifics of it, but it 342 00:21:59.440 --> 00:22:02.559 is interesting as a directional trend, right, this seems to 343 00:22:02.599 --> 00:22:06.519 be in the air. And also, you know, we understand 344 00:22:06.599 --> 00:22:10.319 how procedural outcomes can be manipulated. So that was worth 345 00:22:10.480 --> 00:22:12.960 bringing up, of course, just because you know, that's on 346 00:22:13.000 --> 00:22:19.119 the domestic front. What we've seen pivoting back to another 347 00:22:19.240 --> 00:22:22.920 group that has been alienated by the President. Donald Trump 348 00:22:22.960 --> 00:22:26.839 had sort of a weird spat with the Pope, and 349 00:22:27.000 --> 00:22:29.359 it seems to be largely ginned up by the media 350 00:22:29.640 --> 00:22:33.720 because the Pope like three weeks ago put out a 351 00:22:33.720 --> 00:22:38.720 statement that was basically like countries should not go to 352 00:22:38.799 --> 00:22:42.599 war with each other, they should use diplomacy, which like, 353 00:22:43.039 --> 00:22:45.559 I mean, look, man, it's the Vatican, it's the Pope. 354 00:22:46.079 --> 00:22:50.160 Like the Pope has been advocating against war. Yeah, yeah, exactly, 355 00:22:50.279 --> 00:22:55.119 Like Okay, even during you know, the reign of Isabella 356 00:22:55.200 --> 00:22:58.400 of Spain, the Vatican was saying, please have mercy on 357 00:22:58.440 --> 00:23:01.440 these heretics, and then the state was burning them anyway, 358 00:23:01.839 --> 00:23:04.759 so this is far from Look, I'm not Catholic, Thomas, 359 00:23:04.839 --> 00:23:07.880 you're not Catholic, but getting mad at the Pope for this, 360 00:23:07.920 --> 00:23:11.559 it's like it's what he does you know I don't agree. Obviously, 361 00:23:11.640 --> 00:23:13.440 I don't agree with the Pope. R I'd be Catholic, 362 00:23:13.920 --> 00:23:16.279 but like this is such a it should have been 363 00:23:16.599 --> 00:23:19.720 sort of a typhoon in a teacup right, pointless. But 364 00:23:19.799 --> 00:23:24.400 Trump swung hard, right, really swung hard at the Pope. 365 00:23:24.599 --> 00:23:30.240 And don't get me wrong, in aggregate, Catholics vote for 366 00:23:30.359 --> 00:23:35.880 the Democrats. Now that's highly Again I am not Catholic. 367 00:23:35.920 --> 00:23:37.400 I'm trying to speak to this as pesta I can. 368 00:23:37.440 --> 00:23:40.359 That is highly ethnic. You have to understand that, you know, 369 00:23:40.440 --> 00:23:43.559 a lot of Catholics in America are Hispanic. Hispanics in 370 00:23:43.640 --> 00:23:48.519 general tend to swing Democrat for obvious reasons. Similarly, like 371 00:23:48.599 --> 00:23:51.759 you have large Catholic populations in the Northeast. We understand 372 00:23:51.799 --> 00:23:54.039 how those go. I'm not trying to say that, you know, 373 00:23:54.160 --> 00:23:58.480 Catholics are a core Republican voter base, but they're certainly 374 00:23:58.519 --> 00:24:01.519 there right, particularly as we've seen that Donald Trump made 375 00:24:01.599 --> 00:24:05.599 large gains in the Hispanic population and you come out 376 00:24:05.599 --> 00:24:09.240 swinging at the Holy Father. That is another group which 377 00:24:09.480 --> 00:24:13.279 was sort of cast off. And again this is another 378 00:24:13.319 --> 00:24:17.680 area in which an existing sort of fracture line in 379 00:24:17.759 --> 00:24:21.000 the nominal right wing coalition between Protestants and Catholics, which 380 00:24:21.039 --> 00:24:23.920 had sort of laid dormant, you know, short of some 381 00:24:24.039 --> 00:24:26.200 light ribbing, no one really wanted to bring up the 382 00:24:26.240 --> 00:24:29.599 old tropes about being controlled by Rome. But because of this, 383 00:24:30.079 --> 00:24:33.640 that fault line was massively exacerbated. Both on the level 384 00:24:33.680 --> 00:24:38.240 of you have you know, nominal Republican voters basically feeling 385 00:24:38.279 --> 00:24:42.119 as if they're forced to choose between their religious obligations 386 00:24:42.440 --> 00:24:45.680 and you know, their political ones, and also on the 387 00:24:45.680 --> 00:24:48.400 back end, you had all of the worst people on 388 00:24:48.480 --> 00:24:51.480 the line, you know, and these are large influencers, I'm talking, 389 00:24:51.559 --> 00:24:53.759 you know, the kind of people we don't particularly like, 390 00:24:53.799 --> 00:24:57.680 but prominent conservatives basically going back to kind of eighteen 391 00:24:57.759 --> 00:25:01.359 nineties anti Catholic canards, you know, or you people are 392 00:25:01.400 --> 00:25:04.720 just controlled by Rome. And okay, that's a little bit silly. 393 00:25:04.759 --> 00:25:07.559 It never should have happened to begin with. But nonetheless, 394 00:25:07.559 --> 00:25:09.799 if we're looking at this party and looking at their 395 00:25:09.839 --> 00:25:13.640 supporter base, this is yet another place in which it 396 00:25:13.759 --> 00:25:17.799 is fracturing massively. So and so to me when we 397 00:25:17.839 --> 00:25:20.880 look at you know, the assault on the individual state level, 398 00:25:21.200 --> 00:25:23.720 where states are basically saying we're going to hit you 399 00:25:24.079 --> 00:25:27.039 in these kind of safe you know, Republican districts in 400 00:25:27.079 --> 00:25:29.599 blue states, We're going to take those away from you. 401 00:25:29.599 --> 00:25:35.759