1 00:00:17,719 --> 00:00:20,920 Speaker 1: We are back with another edition of the Federalist Radio Hour. 2 00:00:21,079 --> 00:00:25,039 I'm Matt Kittle, Senior Elections correspondent at the Federalist and 3 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:29,480 your experienced Shirpa on today's quest for Knowledge. As always, 4 00:00:29,480 --> 00:00:32,200 you can email the show at radio at the Federalist 5 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:36,439 dot com, follow us on x at FDR LST, make 6 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:39,479 sure to subscribe wherever you download your podcast, and of 7 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:43,079 course to the premium version of our website as well. 8 00:00:44,079 --> 00:00:47,719 Our guest today is renowned polster Scott Rasmussen, president of 9 00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:52,399 RMG Research Incorporated. As we check in on the pulse 10 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:55,640 of America at the dawn of Trump two point zero. Scott, 11 00:00:55,679 --> 00:00:57,880 it is a great pleasure to have you with us 12 00:00:57,920 --> 00:00:59,399 here today on the Federalist Radio Hour. 13 00:00:59,759 --> 00:01:02,280 Speaker 2: Well, it's an honor to be with you and looking 14 00:01:02,359 --> 00:01:05,120 forward to just kind of catching up with all the 15 00:01:05,159 --> 00:01:06,840 things going on in the world around us. 16 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:11,560 Speaker 1: Oh my goodness, and no dull day in politics these days. 17 00:01:11,599 --> 00:01:14,400 The old saying like drinking from a fire hose, is 18 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:18,959 I think apropos. Let's begin here. Though you've been doing 19 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:22,799 this for a long time, you're like me. You have issues, 20 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:26,640 you have lots of issues to cover. But the first 21 00:01:26,719 --> 00:01:29,280 question I have to ask you is, do you ever 22 00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:30,599 get tired of being right? 23 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:36,319 Speaker 2: Well, actually, I remember all the times that I've been 24 00:01:36,359 --> 00:01:39,719 wrong more than I remember that, But I'm thankful that 25 00:01:40,359 --> 00:01:43,400 other people forget some of those along the way. 26 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:51,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, I know, you should consult with Polster in Des Moines, 27 00:01:51,159 --> 00:01:54,840 Iowa these days. She understands exactly how you feel about that. 28 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:58,120 With the last election. Now, I mean you have You've 29 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:00,280 been doing this for a long time. You've called a 30 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:02,680 lot of these races, right. A lot of people in 31 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:06,200 sixteen pointed at you and said, you're crazy. You think this, 32 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:13,719 You think this TV star, billionaire businessman has a chance 33 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:15,680 of winning the presidency. 34 00:02:16,439 --> 00:02:17,039 Speaker 2: You called it. 35 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:21,080 Speaker 1: Then you called it, of course in twenty twenty four, 36 00:02:21,159 --> 00:02:23,599 and you've called it a lot along the way. What 37 00:02:23,759 --> 00:02:26,759 gave you so much faith that Donald Trump had tapped 38 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:32,240 into I guess the zeitgeist of American politics in sixteen 39 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:33,560 and again in twenty four. 40 00:02:34,319 --> 00:02:38,680 Speaker 2: Well, a couple of things in that. First, you know, 41 00:02:38,759 --> 00:02:41,960 a lot of people in the political realm think that 42 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:48,159 Donald Trump somehow created the Mega movement out of whole cloth, 43 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:51,199 especially people on the left, think that somehow he's just 44 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:56,719 conned people into following him. Irrationally and nothing could be 45 00:02:56,800 --> 00:03:01,680 further from the truth. The move was there before Donald 46 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:04,479 Trump arrived to lead it, before he arrived to give 47 00:03:04,599 --> 00:03:08,039 voice to it. You know, my very first poll back 48 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:11,879 in the nineteen eighties, so a long time ago, found 49 00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:16,520 that Americans were unhappy that we were carrying an unfair 50 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:21,120 share of the burden of the NATO defense. So that 51 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:25,439 feeling was there in the eighties, it grew stronger. Issues 52 00:03:25,479 --> 00:03:28,960 like immigration came up that were growing, and Donald Trump 53 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:30,680 was the one who stepped forward to lead it. But 54 00:03:30,719 --> 00:03:36,039 I also have to point out something about polsters and polling, 55 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:41,400 especially in twenty sixteen and again this year. The polling 56 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:45,800 was actually much better than the legend in twenty sixteen. 57 00:03:46,759 --> 00:03:50,599 What was wrong, what was horribly wrong, was the analysis. 58 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:54,719 In twenty sixteen, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 59 00:03:55,159 --> 00:03:59,120 two percentage points. The national polling showed that she would 60 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:02,840 win it by three points. That's pretty good. When you 61 00:04:02,919 --> 00:04:06,680 look to the states, forty seven states were absolutely no 62 00:04:06,879 --> 00:04:10,960 surprise based on the polling. There were three surprises in 63 00:04:11,039 --> 00:04:15,080 those blue Wall states, but they were a surprise partly 64 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:19,480 because of the analysis. In Pennsylvania and Michigan. The last 65 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:23,959 poll in each state showed Donald Trump ahead. The polling 66 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:26,279 averages showed it to be a pure toss up. The 67 00:04:26,319 --> 00:04:29,079 only state that was really off that year was Wisconsin. 68 00:04:29,519 --> 00:04:37,040 But the analysis is something different in that people, television, 69 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:40,720 pundits and others couldn't imagine Donald Trump winning. So I 70 00:04:40,759 --> 00:04:44,240 was in the green room at Fox on Election Day 71 00:04:44,319 --> 00:04:48,439 morning and the discussion was the average the polls show 72 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:52,000 her up by three points, and the tone was, yeah, 73 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:54,000 but there's always a margin of error. She's going to 74 00:04:54,079 --> 00:04:57,279 win by six probably, and some were saying, and oh, 75 00:04:57,279 --> 00:05:00,399 it'll be even bigger, she might hit double digits. It 76 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:04,120 never occurred to anybody it could go the other direction 77 00:05:04,319 --> 00:05:08,360 even a bit. So again, there's a difference between polling 78 00:05:09,399 --> 00:05:14,040 and the analysis of polling. And in twenty sixteen, the 79 00:05:14,079 --> 00:05:16,959 polling was wasn't perfect, but it wasn't as bad as 80 00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:18,120 the analysis. 81 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:23,079 Speaker 1: Does it have something to do with I'm just going 82 00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:26,959 to ask you this straight out, and I imagine you 83 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:30,720 may be diplomatic about this, but about the dishonesty of 84 00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:34,680 what I like to call the accomplice media we have 85 00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:39,519 seen over the last several years in this country. They're 86 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:43,319 more interested in creating a narrative than telling the story. 87 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:48,319 How much did I don't know if it was willful Ultimately, 88 00:05:48,439 --> 00:05:51,000 I think in some regards it definitely was, or just 89 00:05:51,759 --> 00:05:57,240 you know, ignorance that again they just couldn't possibly imagine 90 00:05:57,879 --> 00:06:02,560 that Donald Trump could defeat this, you know, this gilded 91 00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:09,600 politician and so called stateswomen and Hillary Clinton. How much 92 00:06:09,639 --> 00:06:13,000 of that played into where the polls were and the 93 00:06:13,079 --> 00:06:15,120 reporting in twenty sixteen. 94 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:19,120 Speaker 2: If you're being generous, you point out that all of 95 00:06:19,199 --> 00:06:21,680 us live in our bubbles. We tend to see things 96 00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:25,560 breaking in our direction. You know, if you're a fan 97 00:06:25,639 --> 00:06:28,720 of Donald Trump today and you look at how people 98 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:32,040 are concerned about inflation, you instantly say, well, it's still 99 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:36,120 Biden's economy and Trump is going to fix it. If 100 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:39,519 you're a Trump opponent, you're going to say, well, inflation 101 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:43,120 is a problem today. Trump hasn't done anything about it yet, 102 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:45,000 and it's going to be the end of him next year. 103 00:06:45,079 --> 00:06:47,399 So part of it is the expectations that we bring 104 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:50,480 into it. One of the things, one of the fun 105 00:06:50,519 --> 00:06:52,680 facts I like to point out is the polling was 106 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:57,240 actually much worse in twenty twelve than it was in 107 00:06:57,319 --> 00:07:00,639 twenty sixteen. For the reason nobody knows noticed it then, 108 00:07:00,759 --> 00:07:05,800 is because the expectation was that Barack Obama was going 109 00:07:05,879 --> 00:07:09,240 to win the election. He still won, but by a 110 00:07:09,319 --> 00:07:12,920 much smaller margin than was expected by many of the pundits, 111 00:07:13,639 --> 00:07:16,920 So it wasn't really a shock to the system. And 112 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:19,240 I think that's a big part of it. You know 113 00:07:19,879 --> 00:07:23,199 right now, Well, you mentioned Hillary Clinton in twenty sixteen, 114 00:07:24,399 --> 00:07:28,480 Barack Obama said she's the most prepared candidate ever to 115 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:33,360 serve as president. There was a value in her experience 116 00:07:33,439 --> 00:07:37,839 in what we would call the swamp. Voters didn't share that. Today, 117 00:07:37,920 --> 00:07:42,040 we're seeing the same thing. You know, CBS is running 118 00:07:42,079 --> 00:07:45,920 these stories about these poor, honorable civil servants who are 119 00:07:45,959 --> 00:07:49,920 being laid off. Part of the reason for that is 120 00:07:49,959 --> 00:07:53,879 that people in DC, and especially at elite levels in 121 00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:58,040 the political world, believe that working for the government is 122 00:07:58,079 --> 00:08:01,959 more honorable than working in a private sector. So they 123 00:08:01,959 --> 00:08:04,160 don't shed a tear when a steel worker is laid 124 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:07,560 off the boy government workers get laid off. It's a problem, 125 00:08:08,319 --> 00:08:10,160 and part of it is what you see around us. 126 00:08:10,199 --> 00:08:12,759 Were you to pull a couple of days ago, and 127 00:08:13,199 --> 00:08:16,759 only eight percent of voters say they've really felt any 128 00:08:16,879 --> 00:08:20,040 kind of impact from all of these layoffs. We're doing 129 00:08:20,079 --> 00:08:22,639 a survey in the DC area right now, and the 130 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:23,959 reaction is much different. 131 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:27,639 Speaker 1: And I want to get into that in just a moment, 132 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:30,959 because it's fascinating to see those numbers, but then also 133 00:08:31,120 --> 00:08:34,159 see how the issue is covered by the so called 134 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:39,600 legacy or mainstream media. Just a note on qualified or 135 00:08:39,799 --> 00:08:45,720 overly qualified candidates for president. Let us never forget what 136 00:08:45,879 --> 00:08:50,039 history has taught us. James Buchanan was arguably the most 137 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:55,480 qualified candidate for president this country may have ever produced, 138 00:08:55,639 --> 00:08:59,519 and we know how that story ended. I want to Scott, 139 00:08:59,519 --> 00:09:01,240 I want to get to a point that you raised. 140 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:06,799 I think it's absolutely fascinating because it really gets to 141 00:09:06,919 --> 00:09:10,279 the heart of where Americans have been for such a 142 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:13,720 long time, where they are today in terms of sentiment. 143 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:19,039 You mentioned the whole NATO commitment idea back in all 144 00:09:19,039 --> 00:09:21,559 the way going back into the nineteen eighties, that still 145 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:27,840 prevails today. And ultimately, Donald Trump has tapped into so 146 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:31,480 many of these issues that are so important to the 147 00:09:31,519 --> 00:09:36,559 average voter, but so dismissed by the elites, so dismissed 148 00:09:36,639 --> 00:09:40,320 by the again the accomplice media. Why is it that 149 00:09:40,519 --> 00:09:43,519 he seems to be in so many cases the only 150 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:49,519 guy who is recognizing these things that the usual suspects 151 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:50,360 put to the side. 152 00:09:51,879 --> 00:09:55,080 Speaker 2: You know, you could say that Donald Trump has good 153 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:59,039 gut instincts that he's been talking about this or thinking 154 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:03,679 about it in different ways for a long time. People 155 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:06,200 on the left have a hard time understanding how this 156 00:10:06,519 --> 00:10:10,480 billionaire can seem to connect with working class Americans better 157 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:13,639 than others. But I think there's a couple of things 158 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:21,000 going on. Number One, progressives have a theory of the world, 159 00:10:21,039 --> 00:10:23,720 and the theory of the world is Their theory of 160 00:10:23,759 --> 00:10:27,519 the world is experts know what's best, and if you 161 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:30,720 just turn over government to the experts, it will be 162 00:10:30,919 --> 00:10:34,399 better for the working class, it'll be better for lower 163 00:10:34,440 --> 00:10:38,360 income Americans. And what that means is they really don't 164 00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:42,399 listen very much to the people. They don't share the concerns. 165 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:46,320 We saw this in the campaign last year. The message 166 00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:49,759 coming out of the Biden White House was the economy 167 00:10:49,879 --> 00:10:52,519 is doing great. You people are just too stupid to 168 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:56,519 recognize it. Not a great message, not a great message 169 00:10:56,559 --> 00:11:00,919 at all. So there's this sense of they don't understand 170 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:04,039 the importance of listening. They don't understand the importance of 171 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:08,799 the fact that when voters raise these concerns they want 172 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:13,080 them addressed. So immigration is an issue that for decades, 173 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:17,000 more than eighty percent of Americans have said legal immigration 174 00:11:17,159 --> 00:11:20,200 is good for America. More than eighty percent have said 175 00:11:20,279 --> 00:11:25,200 illegal immigration is bad for America. We did a survey 176 00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:27,879 last year of the elite one percent. We asked a 177 00:11:28,039 --> 00:11:31,720 thousand members of this elite world, in their own words, 178 00:11:31,759 --> 00:11:34,919 what was the most important issue facing the nation. Not 179 00:11:35,159 --> 00:11:40,240 one of them mentioned immigration or border security. They weren't 180 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:44,080 listening to what was going on. When we asked federal 181 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:48,799 government managers in December about the biggest issue facing the nation, 182 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:53,759 very few mentioned the economy because, you know, in the 183 00:11:53,759 --> 00:11:57,879 federal government, at least until Elon Muskin Dooge, the economy 184 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:00,240 was great. If you worked for the federal government job 185 00:12:00,279 --> 00:12:04,159 for life, you are pretty well paid. And so they 186 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:07,120 just didn't understand what was going on in the country. 187 00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:09,879 And I will come back, you know. I think we 188 00:12:09,919 --> 00:12:12,279 are all products of the bubbles that we live in. 189 00:12:12,759 --> 00:12:16,240 I think a lot of it is tied to the 190 00:12:16,279 --> 00:12:18,879 fact that these people are living in a different world. 191 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:23,480 During the pandemic, economists were shocked and how fast jobs 192 00:12:23,519 --> 00:12:26,759 came back after that initial surge of layoffs well, the 193 00:12:26,799 --> 00:12:29,360 reason that they were shocked by it is because everybody 194 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:31,120 in their world was afraid to go out and they 195 00:12:31,159 --> 00:12:33,559 could stay at home and work on their computer. They 196 00:12:33,559 --> 00:12:37,879 didn't understand how bartenders and waitresses and construction workers needed 197 00:12:37,919 --> 00:12:40,600 to go on the job and begin to earn some money. 198 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:43,960 So this disconnect is real, and one of the challenges 199 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:46,360 we have as a nation is how do we begin 200 00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:50,960 to bridge that gap. The legacy media did a horrible job. 201 00:12:51,039 --> 00:12:54,480 They became part of the elite bubble. They refused to 202 00:12:54,519 --> 00:12:57,320 acknowledge anything else. And what we saw in twenty twenty 203 00:12:57,320 --> 00:13:01,480 four is the legacy meetia is no longer relevant. 204 00:13:02,759 --> 00:13:06,480 Speaker 1: That is the big takeaway I think absolutely right from 205 00:13:06,519 --> 00:13:09,559 the twenty twenty four and I believe wasn't it there 206 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:15,039 you know an unnamed, anonymous corporate media executive who said, 207 00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:18,000 if Donald Trump wins, we're over. We're done. I mean, 208 00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:21,200 that's not his exact quote, but that's that's the sentiment. 209 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:25,879 And there is something to be said about sentiment and 210 00:13:25,919 --> 00:13:31,240 totally understanding it. Obviously, Abraham Lincoln understood it very well. 211 00:13:31,639 --> 00:13:35,240 His famous line, of course, is, you know, public sentiment 212 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:40,320 is everything. With it, you can accomplish just about anything. 213 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:44,879 Without it, you can accomplish nothing. I still see in 214 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:48,799 early twenty twenty five, in the first couple of months 215 00:13:49,039 --> 00:13:53,000 of the Trump's second term in office, the twenty first 216 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:58,039 centuries Grover Cleveland, I still see a doubling down from 217 00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:01,200 the left. They have they seen based on what you're 218 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:03,200 seeing in the numbers, what you've reported in the numbers, 219 00:14:03,919 --> 00:14:07,679 They've learned just about absolutely nothing from the verdict of 220 00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:12,080 the American people in twenty twenty four. Am I correct 221 00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:13,159 or am I overstating that? 222 00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:16,679 Speaker 2: Well, you may be overstating it a little, but I 223 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:20,840 think broadly speaking, you're correct. You know, it is stunning 224 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:26,200 to me that so many Democrats refuse to get behind 225 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:29,080 the idea that biological males should not be allowed to 226 00:14:29,159 --> 00:14:32,240 compete in women's sports. They are doubling down on an 227 00:14:32,279 --> 00:14:37,679 issue that is supported by thirteen percent of voters. Overwhelmingly 228 00:14:37,759 --> 00:14:40,840 people think that's a bad idea. It's a rejection of 229 00:14:40,879 --> 00:14:45,720 common sense. We see the same thing on border security issues. 230 00:14:46,759 --> 00:14:54,120 There is just this unwillingness among progressives to think that's 231 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:56,279 an important issue. In fact, some of them go so 232 00:14:56,360 --> 00:15:00,320 far as to say it's unethical to think about having borders. 233 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:03,159 So why they're so far out of touch. I don't know. 234 00:15:03,919 --> 00:15:08,000 One of my favorite commentators on this he now works 235 00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:13,000 at AEI. He is a long term moderate Democrat. Really, 236 00:15:13,039 --> 00:15:17,000 to Shaa, who writes a blog The Liberal Patriot, you 237 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:21,720 should look at that every day. He really began his 238 00:15:21,799 --> 00:15:24,480 new evaluation of the Democratic Party a couple of years 239 00:15:24,519 --> 00:15:29,080 ago with a column called the Democrats common Sense Problem, 240 00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:34,039 and he listed ten issues where they were eighty twenty issues, 241 00:15:34,159 --> 00:15:36,879 and the progressive wing of the Democratic Party was on 242 00:15:36,919 --> 00:15:41,320 the twenty side and just purging anybody who didn't agree 243 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:44,200 with them. And it's going to take a little while 244 00:15:45,279 --> 00:15:47,320 before that comes un done. I would say that if 245 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:51,320 the Republicans, if the economy does come back a little bit, 246 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:54,200 and the Republicans can hang onto the House in twenty 247 00:15:54,279 --> 00:15:57,679 twenty six, you're going to start to see some movement 248 00:15:57,879 --> 00:16:00,360 from the Democrats, because all of a sudden they'll be 249 00:16:00,399 --> 00:16:03,360 looking at a long time out of power if they 250 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:07,440 don't adjust. If something happens then Democrats gain control of 251 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:10,080 the House and do pretty well on the state races, 252 00:16:10,679 --> 00:16:13,039 they may stick to their doubling down approach for a 253 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:14,080 little while longer. 254 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 3: New York State has a new recruitment process for Democrat voters. 255 00:16:20,159 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 4: The watch Dout on Wall Street podcast with Chris Markowski. 256 00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:25,879 Every day Chris helps unpack the connection between politics and 257 00:16:25,919 --> 00:16:27,759 the economy and how it affects your wallet. 258 00:16:27,919 --> 00:16:31,919 Speaker 3: After DOJ's purge of the federal workforce, Governor Kathy Hochel 259 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:35,159 is recruiting federal workers to move to New York. Does 260 00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:37,879 she really want employment or just more votes? 261 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:40,039 Speaker 4: Whether it's happening in DC or down on Wall Street, 262 00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:42,559 it's affecting you financially. Be informed. Check out the watch 263 00:16:42,559 --> 00:16:45,639 Doot on Wall Street podcast with Chris Markowski on Apple, Spotify, 264 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:47,120 or wherever you get your podcasts. 265 00:16:49,639 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 1: In interesting eighteen months on that front, for sure, our 266 00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:56,720 guess our guest today is renowned polster Scott Rasmussen, President 267 00:16:56,799 --> 00:17:00,360 of our MG Research Incorporated. As we check in on 268 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:04,079 the pulse of America at the dawn of Trump two 269 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:05,839 point zero. So let's take a look at some of 270 00:17:05,839 --> 00:17:10,519 those numbers on the key issues Doge. I think we've 271 00:17:10,599 --> 00:17:14,720 got to begin at the Department of Government efficiency. There's 272 00:17:14,759 --> 00:17:18,000 a lot of hair on fire in the swamp these days, 273 00:17:18,039 --> 00:17:22,440 for sure. How is it truly resonating with the American voter? 274 00:17:22,559 --> 00:17:26,079 Speaker 2: Right Now, if you talk about DOGE, it's important to 275 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:29,839 remember that those of us who live in the political 276 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:32,759 world and talk politics all the time often speak a 277 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:38,079 different language than everyday Americans. So in December, when DOGE 278 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,759 was getting up and running, only nineteen percent of voters 279 00:17:41,799 --> 00:17:45,240 even knew what it was. As of a week ago, 280 00:17:45,519 --> 00:17:49,599 only thirty five percent actually know what DOGE is all about. 281 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:53,440 So we want to be careful about the terminology. When 282 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:58,240 you talk about the project, people are generally happy with it. 283 00:18:00,079 --> 00:18:03,960 People approve of the cuts. Forty eight percent say that 284 00:18:04,519 --> 00:18:08,079 reducing the number of federal employees is good for the economy, 285 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:11,680 forty one percent say it's bad. Only about a third 286 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:14,920 thinks that things have gone too far in terms of layoffs. 287 00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:17,599 Right now, most are saying now, we're not there yet. 288 00:18:18,319 --> 00:18:21,079 And at the core of it all is the belief 289 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:25,000 that there's not just waste in the federal government, which 290 00:18:25,039 --> 00:18:27,920 people certainly assume and they're happy to see some of 291 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:31,799 it being cleaned up. There's also a belief that there's 292 00:18:31,839 --> 00:18:35,240 a tremendous amount of corruption, and we look at some 293 00:18:35,319 --> 00:18:38,640 of the projects like the USAID programs, and that just 294 00:18:38,759 --> 00:18:41,759 reinforces the attitude. So as long as those things are 295 00:18:41,839 --> 00:18:44,920 being talked about, and you're cutting at some of the 296 00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:49,799 federal bureaucracy, cutting at some of that corruption, it's very positive. 297 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:54,480 My one concern about the way people are talking about 298 00:18:54,559 --> 00:18:59,519 it on the Republican and conservative side of the aisle 299 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:03,359 is they're talking about it as a way, we're doing 300 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:06,279 this so we can balance the budget. That's not going 301 00:19:06,319 --> 00:19:10,160 to happen. There are a number of factors that are 302 00:19:10,279 --> 00:19:13,880 driving the growth of federal spending, and no matter if 303 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:18,680 you eliminate every henny of waste and corruption and fraud 304 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:22,799 and abuse, spending will continue to go up, sure at 305 00:19:22,799 --> 00:19:27,240 a slower rate. But that's a different question. So right now, 306 00:19:27,279 --> 00:19:31,640 it's just cleaning up a mess, which is very well received. Yeah. 307 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:35,359 Speaker 1: That's the horrifying part about the reality of our national 308 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:39,200 debt is that it is so monstrous, It is so 309 00:19:39,519 --> 00:19:44,000 huge that even the best of intentions, of course in 310 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:48,279 right sizing the government cleaning up waste is a small 311 00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:51,000 drop in the bucket ultimately to what we need to 312 00:19:51,039 --> 00:19:57,279 accomplish on that front. What about the economy, Old James 313 00:19:57,319 --> 00:20:01,119 Carville once said it, as I understand it, many many 314 00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:04,720 years ago, it's the economy stupid. It remained the economy 315 00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:08,119 stupid in a lot of different elections. It certainly was 316 00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:10,759 in twenty twenty four, and you saw a lot of 317 00:20:10,759 --> 00:20:14,440 people on the left not reading the tea leaves on 318 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:18,440 that front, and I think it ultimately cost them. That 319 00:20:18,599 --> 00:20:22,880 was Still the number one issue is how is all 320 00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:26,079 of that resonating in the first several weeks of the 321 00:20:26,079 --> 00:20:29,839 Trump administration. I know Democrats have done everything they can 322 00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:33,640 to blame the price of eggs on Donald Trump. Is 323 00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:35,920 that resonating their arguments? 324 00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:39,640 Speaker 2: First of all? To that question, though it's not resonating 325 00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:42,680 people still, we ask them which party do you trust 326 00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:47,480 to deal with the problem of inflation. They trust Republicans 327 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:50,200 by a forty five percent to thirty four percent margin, 328 00:20:50,279 --> 00:20:53,799 so a double digit edge to the Republicans. There is. 329 00:20:54,319 --> 00:20:58,480 Inflation is a huge concern to voters, and if it 330 00:20:58,559 --> 00:21:02,799 is not a dreat, it's going to be a problem 331 00:21:02,839 --> 00:21:05,960 in the mid terms. Right now, though voters are saying 332 00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:09,599 this is Biden's economy, you know, it's going to take 333 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:12,640 the new guy a little bit of time to address this. 334 00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:18,160 A year from today, I would guess that Donald Trump 335 00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:22,200 will be fully responsible for whatever happens, good or bad 336 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:26,559 with inflation in the broader sense of the economy, we 337 00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:29,440 track on a regular basis. Every other week we do 338 00:21:30,079 --> 00:21:33,319 a survey to ask how people are feeling about the economy, 339 00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:38,039 and our favorite measure is are your personal finances getting 340 00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:42,839 better or worse? Because that's really what drives your political 341 00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:48,559 reaction to the economy. Starting on November fifth, we saw 342 00:21:48,599 --> 00:21:54,400 a dramatic reduction in pessimism about the economy. Every time 343 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:57,519 we did a survey it got less pessimistic. So on 344 00:21:57,559 --> 00:22:00,200 election day or just before election day, forty one one 345 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:06,119 percent of voters said their finances were getting worse, and 346 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:09,000 by the time we got to the end of January 347 00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:11,799 it was down the twenty nine percent. So just having 348 00:22:11,839 --> 00:22:15,000 Trump win the election gave people a sense of hope. 349 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:19,720 In the last few weeks, we've seen that reverse a 350 00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:24,920 little bit. There's a lot of confusion about the tariff 351 00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:28,440 issue and a lot of ups and downs about that. 352 00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:31,559 So we're not seeing things go back to as bad 353 00:22:31,599 --> 00:22:34,640 as they were last October in terms of perceptions about 354 00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:38,160 the economy, But there are some warning signs, some yellow 355 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:41,119 lights that the Trump administration is going to have to 356 00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:42,920 address this head on. 357 00:22:44,319 --> 00:22:46,359 Speaker 1: Let me ask you this then, and maybe it is 358 00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:49,680 the tariffs. I've seen a lot of numbers on that 359 00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:54,599 and reporting on that. Confusion I think is the seems 360 00:22:54,599 --> 00:22:56,119 to be the main theme coming out of it. What 361 00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:02,599 is the biggest issue that President Trump is so far, 362 00:23:02,799 --> 00:23:07,240 at least with the American people not getting right or 363 00:23:07,599 --> 00:23:09,720 not connecting with the American people on. 364 00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:15,119 Speaker 2: Well. When he was elected, I said there were three 365 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:20,000 issues that voters were expecting him to deal with. Number 366 00:23:20,039 --> 00:23:25,680 one was border security. I mean, from the first time 367 00:23:25,759 --> 00:23:29,400 he wrote down that escalator, Donald Trump's signature issue has 368 00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:33,279 been securing the border. He clearly addressed that with a 369 00:23:33,279 --> 00:23:36,880 lot of executive orders and some other actions and very 370 00:23:37,039 --> 00:23:41,759 high profile deportation efforts, and the change has been dramatic. 371 00:23:41,799 --> 00:23:45,039 When Joe Biden was in office, only twenty four percent 372 00:23:45,079 --> 00:23:48,519 of voters thought the federal government was serious about securing 373 00:23:48,519 --> 00:23:51,720 the border. It's up to sixty nine percent today. So 374 00:23:51,799 --> 00:23:56,720 that was one issue. Second issue was what I might 375 00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:00,480 term is a return to normalcy or what a president 376 00:24:00,519 --> 00:24:04,599 would call a common sense revolution around the topic of 377 00:24:05,519 --> 00:24:08,960 gender identity. And again he addressed that with some early 378 00:24:09,039 --> 00:24:14,039 actions executive orders against boys playing in girls' sports, executive 379 00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:17,000 orders about there are only two genders. It's not something 380 00:24:17,039 --> 00:24:19,559 you're assigned at birth. You are either a male or 381 00:24:19,599 --> 00:24:22,920 a female. And so those things he has addressed and 382 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:27,119 I think has gone very very well. The third issue 383 00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:32,519 is the economy, and it takes a lot of forms, 384 00:24:32,559 --> 00:24:38,720 and there's a lot of concerns. Inflation is a big 385 00:24:38,799 --> 00:24:42,759 part of it. But that's the issue that he really 386 00:24:42,839 --> 00:24:46,279 has to focus on. You can talk about cutting government 387 00:24:46,319 --> 00:24:50,440 spending and people are encouraged by that, but they'd rather 388 00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:53,920 have a strong economy than a cleaned up government. And 389 00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:56,759 so if I was advising the president, that's what I 390 00:24:56,759 --> 00:25:01,200 would be saying between now and November twenty twenty six. 391 00:25:01,599 --> 00:25:04,680 You have to make the economy work for all Americans. 392 00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:09,920 Speaker 1: This election, this last election was in no small part 393 00:25:10,079 --> 00:25:15,000 about elections, election security, election integrity. You've done a lot 394 00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:19,160 of work on that front. In fact, wasn't just a 395 00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:24,960 few days ago you talked about the notion of election integrity, 396 00:25:25,079 --> 00:25:28,920 how important that is to the American voter. One note 397 00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:32,359 here you have is more than eighty five percent of 398 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:38,200 voters support five basic election reforms as it relates to 399 00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:45,960 election integrity. Where what are those five tenants? Where do 400 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:47,119 people stand on them? 401 00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:50,559 Speaker 2: These are common sense reforms. But I think it's important 402 00:25:50,559 --> 00:25:53,440 to step back and look at why this is so important. 403 00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:57,680 Only forty five percent of voters, so fewer than half 404 00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:01,920 of all voters say they are very confident that their 405 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:06,200 votes are accurately counted and the correct person declared the winner. 406 00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:10,000 Fewer than half of Americans have that confidence. In a 407 00:26:10,079 --> 00:26:14,119 nation where the government derives it's only just authority from 408 00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:17,799 the consent of the governed, that's a crisis. And it's 409 00:26:17,839 --> 00:26:21,279 not just Republicans or just Democrats who have that view. 410 00:26:22,039 --> 00:26:26,039 The number is virtually identical between the parties. If you 411 00:26:26,079 --> 00:26:29,319 go back to twenty twenty. Of course, Republicans think the 412 00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:34,640 election was stolen. If you go back to twenty sixteen, 413 00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:38,839 Democrats think the election was stolen. So there is a 414 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:43,599 complete lack of confidence in our electoral system. The basic 415 00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:49,559 reforms that people embrace our photo ID requirements for everybody 416 00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:54,319 who votes citizens proof of citizenship to register as part 417 00:26:54,319 --> 00:26:58,640 of the voting process, accounting things like making sure that 418 00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:02,279 the number of ballots submitted equals the total number of 419 00:27:02,319 --> 00:27:05,519 votes that are reported. You know we are talking about. 420 00:27:05,519 --> 00:27:10,920 These are not minor technical details. These are just sort 421 00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:14,599 of why wouldn't you do this if people believe that 422 00:27:14,839 --> 00:27:20,200 all ballots should be submitted by election day, because if 423 00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:22,759 you've mail them in, well that's fine, but get them 424 00:27:22,799 --> 00:27:25,880 in by election day. Why is that important? Well, you 425 00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:28,400 know when your team loses the Super Bowl, you don't 426 00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:30,440 get to play an extra quarter to try and score 427 00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:35,200 another touchdown. People have that sense, so they want to 428 00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:39,079 see these reforms. And it's really important to note this 429 00:27:39,319 --> 00:27:45,519 is not a partisan effort. This is not Trump people 430 00:27:45,559 --> 00:27:48,599 who are upset about twenty twenty or some other group 431 00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:53,279 that is complaining about a particular election. This is a 432 00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:56,799 broad concern that we need to have confidence in our 433 00:27:56,839 --> 00:28:01,480 electoral processes. And it's something that it is hard to 434 00:28:01,519 --> 00:28:04,480 talk about because when one party brings it up when 435 00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:09,599 they're losing, it's obviously their motives are challenged. But it 436 00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:11,960 is something that we're going to be seen talked about 437 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:14,480 a lot in the coming years because people want this 438 00:28:14,599 --> 00:28:17,279 country to work and they want the election process to 439 00:28:17,319 --> 00:28:18,920 be something they can believe. 440 00:28:18,599 --> 00:28:22,920 Speaker 1: In no doubt about that. It's amazing to me as 441 00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:27,039 an elections correspondent here at the Federalist and covering elections 442 00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:32,559 and some truly questionable elections in my time, particularly in 443 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:37,599 swing state Wisconsin. It's amazing to me the resistance that 444 00:28:37,759 --> 00:28:42,799 continues against where Americans really are on election reform, common 445 00:28:42,839 --> 00:28:51,400 sense election integrity reforms. Is it Is it similar that resistance? 446 00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:53,559 Is it similar to what you were talking to before, 447 00:28:53,599 --> 00:28:56,000 the bubble notion of some of these folks. 448 00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:59,160 Speaker 2: I'm sure that's a part of it, and I'm sure 449 00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:01,359 a big part of it comes to do with the 450 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:06,480 rhetoric that has been put out. You know, when the 451 00:29:06,519 --> 00:29:09,440 Democrats took over a Congress few years back, they tried 452 00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:12,079 to push through something called the For the People Act, 453 00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:19,000 which was an absolutely horrific piece of election legislation, but 454 00:29:19,039 --> 00:29:22,119 they produced all kinds of polls showing that seventy or 455 00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:25,920 seventy five percent of voters supported it. So we went 456 00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:29,640 out and did the exact same type of questions, and 457 00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:33,359 we found seventy or seventy percent supported that act when 458 00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,599 you described it in general terms, And then we asked 459 00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:39,200 all those who liked it what they thought it included. 460 00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:43,440 The big tell, the big story from that was most 461 00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:47,079 of the people who said they liked that reform thought 462 00:29:47,119 --> 00:29:52,119 it mandated photo ID requirements for all elections. In fact, 463 00:29:52,319 --> 00:29:56,480 it banned photo ID requirements. When we went back in 464 00:29:56,480 --> 00:30:00,920 the field and gave that information to people, fell from 465 00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:04,880 the seventy percent range to in the twenties because people 466 00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:08,519 thought that was a basic reform. But what's happened is 467 00:30:08,559 --> 00:30:12,160 there's groups like the Brennan Center that have adopted this 468 00:30:12,359 --> 00:30:17,319 terminology of voter suppression, and they were keenly putting out 469 00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:22,559 The Republican legislatures introduced three hundred and twelve voter suppression 470 00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:26,000 measures last year. If you look at what most of 471 00:30:26,039 --> 00:30:31,079 them are, they are things like photo ID requirements. They 472 00:30:31,079 --> 00:30:38,440 are things like citizenship requirements, and it just amazes me 473 00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:43,680 that they're not able. To get out of that bubble 474 00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:47,240 would be four the People Act. I believe the Democrats 475 00:30:47,279 --> 00:30:49,400 could have passed that and could have had it be 476 00:30:49,519 --> 00:30:53,920 successful if they had only dropped the ban on photo 477 00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:57,680 ID requirements. That was the big silver bullet that hurt it, 478 00:30:58,440 --> 00:30:59,720 but they were unwilling to do so. 479 00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:04,839 Speaker 1: You've been very generous of your time and I very 480 00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:09,960 much appreciate it. You are an extremely busy gentlemen. You 481 00:31:10,039 --> 00:31:13,640 have been for a long time editor at large at 482 00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:17,119 Ballot PD. I love the number of the day. I 483 00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:20,920 look at that on a regular basis. There's one up 484 00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:25,440 as we record today about FDR and Vetos, which I 485 00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:30,599 particularly enjoyed as a history buff. But I do want 486 00:31:30,599 --> 00:31:34,079 to finish out our conversation with I don't think a 487 00:31:34,079 --> 00:31:37,799 lot of people know they know Scott Rasmussen, you know, 488 00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,920 the renowned polster. They don't know that this is the 489 00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:45,000 guy who with his father many years ago, started a 490 00:31:45,079 --> 00:31:50,880 little network, little sporting network called ESPN. I do have 491 00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:55,039 to ask you much has changed since the early days 492 00:31:55,079 --> 00:31:58,200 when I used to tune in and watch the Strongest 493 00:31:58,319 --> 00:32:05,680 Man competition or for it was the programming, you know, 494 00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:08,559 the very interesting sporting programming that you would have there 495 00:32:08,559 --> 00:32:10,720 in the early days. You didn't have the big contracts 496 00:32:10,759 --> 00:32:14,319 of course for a lot of these major events. Much 497 00:32:14,359 --> 00:32:15,920 has changed since then. What do you think of the 498 00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:17,000 ESPN today? 499 00:32:18,559 --> 00:32:22,359 Speaker 2: You know, it's funny when I think of ESPN, I 500 00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:25,119 think of the early days. I think of before we 501 00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:28,039 went on the air and all the challenges, and it's 502 00:32:28,079 --> 00:32:32,160 such a phenomenal memory. And I remember in our earliest 503 00:32:32,279 --> 00:32:36,559 days on the air, we showed something called Irish Hurling, 504 00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:40,480 which we aired because we got free tapes. 505 00:32:41,359 --> 00:32:43,960 Speaker 1: Yeah I love it, and this is. 506 00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:49,160 Speaker 2: Pre internet obviously, and we started getting swamped with calls 507 00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:52,960 about what are the leagues and how can we follow it? 508 00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:55,359 And it just brought us off guard with how much 509 00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:59,240 the demand for this was and as for it, we 510 00:32:59,279 --> 00:33:02,640 had awareness. I've been uninvolved for a very long time, 511 00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:06,720 and so it's just another sports outlet to me because 512 00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:10,960 it's not the place that I remember. ESPN is involved. 513 00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:15,400 They're doing a documentary on the founding days. I don't 514 00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:18,279 know when they plan to release it, but I did 515 00:33:18,319 --> 00:33:21,319 an interview for a week or two ago and it 516 00:33:21,359 --> 00:33:23,839 brought up a lot of fun memories from the early days, 517 00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:27,559 and that's where I will always cherish no very good now. 518 00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:31,319 Speaker 1: It is true. It is definitely not the network that 519 00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:33,640 you and your father started, and we'll just leave it 520 00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:35,839 at that. Whish we had more time, we could talk 521 00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:39,559 for a good, good long time about all of the 522 00:33:39,559 --> 00:33:41,480 issues of the day. But I do appreciate you taking 523 00:33:41,519 --> 00:33:44,440 some time for a little perspective on the early days 524 00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:47,000 of Trump two point zero in particular. 525 00:33:48,519 --> 00:33:50,880 Speaker 2: Well, thank you, and I have a great day. 526 00:33:50,519 --> 00:33:55,559 Speaker 1: Absolutely thanks to my guest today, renowned polster Scott Rasmus, 527 00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:58,440 and you've been listening to another edition of the Federalist 528 00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:02,400 Radio Hour. I'm Matt Kittles, senior Elections correspondent at The Federalist. 529 00:34:02,759 --> 00:34:05,720 We'll be back soon with more. Until then, stay lovers 530 00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:22,559 of freedom and anxious for the fray.