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Speaker 1: You were listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network, where

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you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else

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to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial

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Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork

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dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial

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Survival Network now more than ever.

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Speaker 2: Welcome. This is Financial Survival Network. I'm your host. Carrie

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Let's with us is the esteemed Bob Hoy, master of

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economic history, trends and bends. And Bob, we haven't talked

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in a while, not since the election, not since all

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the trade tensions taking place, not since your last election

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last week. And you have our sincerest condolences. There our things.

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Speaker 3: In the election.

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Speaker 4: Find this new prime minister.

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Speaker 5: He is not just the w E F globalist, but

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he is a dedicated communist who is you is all

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uptight about global warming and sealed suit and the puentative

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law laws.

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Speaker 4: And bills that Trudeau put in.

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Speaker 5: Uh, they're going to stay and he is going to

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try and shut down oil and as production in Alberta.

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Speaker 4: So the Premier of Alberta, Yeah, Danielle standing and.

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Speaker 5: This Canada is going to provide a.

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Speaker 4: Lot of political entertainment over the next world.

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Speaker 2: All right, so let me let me just interrupt you,

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so that those are his good points, that he's a

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W E. F stooge and a communists. The bad point

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is he's like cunning, you know, animal, a fox who

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you don't know what he's capable of. But but I'm

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going to postulate something to you. Trump when he kept

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insulting Trudeau, saying governor and all that, I believe what

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he really was after was not making Canada the fifty

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first state. It's making Alberta the fifty first state. That's

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the five D chess level, that's the plasma tailgunner level.

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That he didn't want Canada because what does the US

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need thirty million more liberals for? We got enough problems

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with what we had, right.

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Speaker 5: Okay, Well, what I think is that.

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Speaker 4: I'm looking at what he's doing with.

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Speaker 5: Chariss One is to get enough revenues for the federal

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government and then with author adding expenditures such that it

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can be funded through carfs as and taxes on things

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as it was for centuries until in the early nineteen

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hundreds when interim tax was introduced. So when it was

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introduced fas wrote that this isn't evil, it's a moral

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to tax somebody before you get it. So anyways, I

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believe that he is going.

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Speaker 4: To get rid of income tax, which you've got it,

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rid of the irs, gus, and fund the government with

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revenues and things, taxes on things.

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Speaker 2: Isn't that a genius move? Isn't that a genius move? Does?

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Speaker 5: Tax is good?

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Speaker 2: But tax, income tax equals control, right, income tax equals control.

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That's what it's all about.

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Speaker 3: You got it.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, But when he takes a run at Hollywood, which

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I don't mind somebody poking a stick in Hollywood, but

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it's getting to micromanagement.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. But but what he's trying to do

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is root out the rot in society. And that's that's

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got that's a multipolar universe. It's Hollywood, it's Hollywood, it's

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higher so called education. I would call it diseducation if

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that's a word. If it's not, it should be a word.

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And uh as well as uh, you know the media.

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You know there are these polls of rot. So I

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don't want to see them saying what you can film

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and what you can't. I think the market can do

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that fine. I think the market has done it. Look

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how it rejected Disney's new tranny. Uh snow white like

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it's aid, you know, take that garbage and stick it right.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, now yeah, this typically it tariffs have come in

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during a real recess.

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Speaker 5: And local politicians and beureacrats get upset with high rising

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unemployment figures in their own country, and then they went

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to protection. And that's very what happened on previous great processions,

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if you want to call them that before it's it's

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the standard practice. But actually there's a bigger picture thing

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you carry, and that is the work that I've done

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on financial history, where you do get a great financial bubble,

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and this one has been huge, and it's it's the

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everything bubble. And when they're complete and the stock market

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turns down, the economy turns down virtually with it, whereas

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in normal business cycle stuff, the S and P leads

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the economy by about a year. And this is why

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IDEA and Pete five hundred is included in the leading indicators.

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But when you're at the end of a great bubble.

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So now my interest here is let's say that the

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high end February was the.

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Speaker 2: High for the bubble.

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Speaker 6: Now what one looks for now it's not just the

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bear market developing first starts, but also there should be

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the economy starting to sclode very abruptly, and we you know,

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I haven't noted anything like that yet.

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Speaker 4: But it should be there. So anyways, with the straight up.

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Speaker 5: Mania leads to a straight down and then a severe recession,

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and actually carries within each of these great depressions in

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the past have lasted about twenty years, and the whole

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world changes, the standard industry and commerces problems with pricing,

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ordinary commodities, metals, brains, whatnot are chronically weak. But when you.

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Speaker 7: Take a look at gold, now what gold does and

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I the only ways look at it, for he had

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it years with the deflated by the TPI, and so

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you get the real price of gold.

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Speaker 5: So on my charts, the real price of gold, as

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the bubble concludes, goes down a little bubble over the

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real price goes up. And I like to use the

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gold divided by the CRB commodity index. I have assumed

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that the CRB is a proxy for mining costs, and

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if mining costs are going down relative to the bullion,

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the gold sectors making money. And this is what it

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was and the lasted in the nineteen thirties. Then also

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in the eighteen eighties was a longer rise in gold's

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real price, and you culminated eighteen ninety seven with the

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conduct gold rush. And for those major gold rushes, you

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needed a few things, alluvial gold at the service. None

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of those left anymore now, and you needed the high

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unemployment that you got to get with a great depression

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and then around the world, and then you got unemployedment

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the real price of gold going up and level great value,

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So then you had the great gold rushes were coordinated

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with the bottom of each huge depression. So it's fascinating

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how that works, isn't it. So what we're looking for now,

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And I like it that the gold divide by the

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CRV and it has been recovering very nicely, got over

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bought a few a month or so ago and is

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just sort of a bit so it's acting like the

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bullion price. But but I really like gold divided by commodities,

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and it's telling a story that is actually the future

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for the for the industry, where gold mining becomes the

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best game in town and most industry and commerce are

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difficult and mining based medals I've got a chart of

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minds and smelters been states from eighteen hours eighteen seventy two,

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and that's that great bubble peaked in eighteen seventy three,

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and the index, as I recall, was about full hundred

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and fifty at its best, and then fifteen years later

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it was down to fifty or sixty for gold mining

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over offer industrial mining stars, you know, basically copper miners.

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And so that's what it's like. The gold miners make

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money and those mining the copper make losses.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's unfortunate. So a record gold prices, now we

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see it going up, going down one hundred dollars some days,

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what is that telling us?

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Speaker 5: Well, yeah, it's all part of this incredible volatility.

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Speaker 4: Now, in December there was a rush that was the

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greatest ten day rush since the nine since on data back.

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Speaker 5: To nineteen seventy four. I mean, this this big stop.

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And then now I heard a news on the financial

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channel here this morning that somewhere like nine consecutive eight

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days down. It is a decline of some.

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Speaker 4: Relentless so you know things are going to pop.

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Speaker 5: But what we.

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Speaker 8: Want to look at is that oftentimes con seasonally conditions

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can be good into around mid year, and then after

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mid year it start looking for a disaster, and then

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of course after September things can read all the hell

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if it's going to go bad big time.

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Speaker 5: All of the major financial panics have occurred in the fall,

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and most of them cleared. Worst was in October, sort

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of tested and cleared the action in November, but there

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was one one in eighteen twenty five, and I have

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no idea why they did it, but they panic selling.

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Speaker 4: Continued right through Christmas and into the first week in January.

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Speaker 5: But the main thing is that that major crashes are

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highly probable. If they're going to happen, they'll be in the.

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Speaker 2: Fall, right, gotcha? All right, so we're not to worry

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for now. And we made it. We made it through March.

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We made it through March, which has also become a

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major crash month as well.

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Speaker 5: Right yeah, Yeah, there's been some setback there. So anyways,

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it is always fascinating out there. But what I'm dwelling

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upon I'm going to mention again, is they straight up

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in things. I'm trying to put together a whole series

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or you know, some of the part of the economic series,

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and looking for the straight up and then the straight down.

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So I don't wish to be ghoulish, but I'm watching

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for economic reports that I usually don't follow anyway, but

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I just watch for a headline.

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Speaker 2: Oh you know that.

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Speaker 5: Kind of thing where some some economic series plunges. You'll

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see something like.

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Speaker 4: That at some point I don't know when. Yeah, gotch

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So then this gets us to the sector that we like.

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Speaker 5: It's just gold mining. And you got the seniors, you

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got the midland sized one, and then you got the juniors.

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And I've been in mining exploration works since I graduated

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in geology, which is a long time ago. And we

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put together as I think it's eleven in it. I've

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junior and gold stalks from pre production to small producers to.

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Speaker 4: Exploration out now exploration stocks.

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Speaker 5: We put it together in December twenty twenty three, and

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Pat Ross and I went through the charts of it,

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and if you had bought a suite of those things,

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it'd be nicely on side. And the reason for getting

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into them is that when you really get the bull

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market for gold stocks, those small cap starts, they can

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really move. And then there's also the possibility I have

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somebody making a discovery and I remember one nineteen ninety

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six and it was looking like an exploration market to

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develop or I got a list of five stocks from

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a gold fund manager in Toronto and one of them

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was a stock called a.

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Speaker 4: Oh yeah, well it with pennies to thirty dollars.

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Speaker 5: And they take over for the whole property and everything

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else was valued at one point one billion.

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Speaker 4: Wow. So just keep in mind they don't know when

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there's the possibility of another air Equiper happening, where somebody

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does make a discovery that the world and gets in

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and participates.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I love it. I love it, Matt. So so

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what about the profits now? It places small small mining

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concerns like Neumont and Barrack. What are they looking at now?

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Speaker 5: Oh, well they face the same thing. It all comes

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down to the real price and their profit margins. Right,

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and one can trade the seniors. But I people want

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our list of juniors. They're quite welcome to.

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Speaker 4: Get in touch and maybe please.

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Speaker 3: To send it out.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll have a link in the show notes so

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that you can contact Bob and get that precious list.

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We always get like two three dozen people asking for

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that list, and it's a good list. So so the

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fact is so with Newma barrack thirty five hundred dollars

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thirty three hundred dollars gold, their profits are going to

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go exponential art dech.

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Speaker 5: Oh, Yeah, they're making money because the same thing is

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that gold reel price has been acting well yeah, over

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bought a couple of months ago and its correcting. But generally,

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and as I say, we might again find a people.

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I just used the gold divided by the CRB get

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a day, you can chart it, whereas if the flight

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goal by the CPI the inflation thing, you can only

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do that once a month.

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Speaker 2: Yeah that's so true, man, so true. Yeah, amazing. It

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really is an amazing time to be alive, isn't it.

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Speaker 5: Oh it's fascinating out there, and particularly with the financial

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and political history that I have. And when you have

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a big financial boom.

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Speaker 4: Goes bust, the whole world can change.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: Nine true.

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Speaker 4: Those that were on the scene in eighteen seventy.

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Speaker 5: Three, it was almost as band.

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Speaker 4: It was.

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Speaker 5: It was again a great financial bubble.

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Speaker 4: Hit and then the failure and into the whole thing.

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Commodity praises, base metal is going down and everything else.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, yeah, so true, so true. Hey, so

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so what's your take on AI.

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Speaker 5: Oh it's fascinating, but I don't think I'm really equipped

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to fully understand it.

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Speaker 4: And it is a game that requires all kinds of power. Yeah,

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like you're you know, power like you wouldn't believe.

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Speaker 2: So that's something you do know about.

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Speaker 4: Great, it has a great cachet with it. It also

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has great costs.

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Speaker 2: But that is something you do know about.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Again, it is a financial market phenomenon.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, what that means.

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Speaker 2: Oh, bubble, I see bubbles in the sky. Yeah, floating upwards,

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getting close, getting too close to the sun and then popping.

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Speaker 4: Oh that's the chorus effect the Greek the legend in

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Greece where Icarus adhered bird feathers to his wings and

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he could his arms and he can actually fly.

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Speaker 3: And he flew up and.

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Speaker 5: Watched and the sun melted the wax and.

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Speaker 2: The exactly, yes, exactly exactly that's what I'm talking about.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, I love it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I love it. Love it.

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Speaker 4: Oh.

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Speaker 9: And then also the busy bodies are coming out with

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it's that they can they can reduce global warring by

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putting all kinds of particulars up there in the sky.

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Speaker 5: Nobody says how much it is going to cost to fire.

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Speaker 4: Up rocus to distribute particles of something rather in the sky.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and.

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Speaker 5: How much energy is going to take.

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Speaker 3: I mean, these guys are.

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Speaker 4: Dreamers, just absolutely hopeless dreamers.

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Speaker 2: Oh it's good to be a dreamer, though, isn't it.

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Speaker 4: Not when it's financials.

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Speaker 2: Hey, I'm a dreamer and it hasn't hurt me.

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Speaker 4: Okay, okay. So you went back to the to the

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Great Depression and the hardship.

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Speaker 5: On the farms in Canada and then the States, and

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the drought was I'm telling you the heat and the

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drought of the twenties into the thirties was exceptional. So

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then they went they were trying to seed clouds with

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the iron dyine crystals or something there, and the efforts were.

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Speaker 4: Made, but you had to it's hard to do that.

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You had some clouds, they just didn't have them, so, uh,

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you needed clouds. But if there's no clouds, you can't

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do it. So this is where you got. These guys

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are going to seed the atmosphere with something particulars and

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screen out.

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Speaker 5: And the heat and there prevent the world frying, you

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know what I mean. And that's going Carneie the new

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Prime Minister candidate. He really is right into the whole

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global warming thing and you must do this and must

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do that. And so it's prompting a very serious movement

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by the Province of Alberta and Tashketchewan to leave the

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Confederation of Canada. I'm all for it. I think it's

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a great idea.

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Speaker 2: Hey, well, you know we were talking about this pre call.

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I'm going to tell you what my thought is. I

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believe that this was Trump's plan from the beginning. He

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wants he didn't really want all of Canada because the

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last thing the United States needs is thirty more more

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million liberals. What he was really after, He's always been

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after Alberta because that is a gold mine, both literally

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and figuratively for the United States.

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Speaker 5: Right.

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Speaker 4: Oh yeah, No, My view is that he wants to

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have an open border for people.

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Speaker 5: And goods and services, and then the whole trading block

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because Canada the United States. And then also from this

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is that over the beginning decades ago, I mean probably

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the last great the person, the tariffs and protectionism from

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province to province got out of control as wow. So

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now there is a genuine movement in Canada to get

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rid of the tariffs, promise to province. It's this good

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stuff and I and I believe it's going to happen.

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Speaker 2: It's good stuff, it's brilliant. It's like, who a trof,

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this could be done?

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Speaker 5: Right?

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Speaker 2: Who would think that it could ever be done?

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Speaker 5: Now? The attitude is there. People are just getting realized

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a lot of things. They're pretty stupid. But the leader

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of the opposition in Canada, Pierre pod I've written a

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year ago that he is the most competent and attractive

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Conservative of leader since Ronald Reagan. The guy is very

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good and also he's extremely bright. He did a and

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address on well I was called Flag Day in the States,

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I think I called it Family Day in Canada. And

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I was so impressed with this thing. And then one

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of the commentators and business commentators out of Toronto the

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next day wrote that recorded that pauliev wrote that whole

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address himself. Really, Oh no, he this guy is something

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else again.

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Speaker 4: No, I have the highest regard.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I'm a believer in him too. I think

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he's pretty good. But I don't think he handled the

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election properly. But maybe those.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, he needs a major do to watch for traps.

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But the liberals, i e. The government changed the writing

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and then they had a ballot with ninety names.

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Speaker 4: On it and was about eighty down. They the liberals,

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think of everything.

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Speaker 2: Oh you'll stop at nothing. They'll stop it nothing.

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Speaker 5: And there is also probably ballot stolen or delivered when

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they were needed. So no, that.

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Speaker 4: An election was rigged against him.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well you're supposed to be ready for this stuff.

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Trump wasn't ready the first time either. We see what

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happened there, but now a little different.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, he's got to handle on it.

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Speaker 5: So yeah, yeah, definitely Trump is unique in history as

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far as I'm able. I look back a couple of

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hundred years, and there have been reformers, but nothing like this.

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Trump is his own man, and I wasn't I think

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when he came.

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Speaker 4: Down the elevator at Trump Tower and then announced, I

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don't think he really grasped where he was and what.

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Speaker 5: It didn't take him.

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Speaker 2: It's a reality TV show, right, Yeah, he's.

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Speaker 4: But he's got it, so no, I haven't. There's nobody

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there trump in history that I that I have been.

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Speaker 2: Able to see.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, and I admire him, and he's going to

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help save the Western world from the wfers, communist, whatever

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you want to call him.

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Speaker 4: These days, control.

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Speaker 2: Freaks couldn't agree with you more, could not agree with

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you more. Hey, So all right, so when we talk

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again in a few months, are we in a recession

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or not?

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Speaker 5: Just well, this is what I'm looking for. We've had

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the spike up in the financials, a spike down and

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it should be accompanied by weakening economic numbers.

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Speaker 4: So we're watching for weakening economic numbers.

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Speaker 2: All right, sounds good. So Bob, the list you got

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your favorite mining stocks on that list? Has it changed

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much since the last one?

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Speaker 4: List of prime primes.

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Speaker 5: Put together by guys have been on the street for

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a million years and they know they they know the action,

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and so they said there's pre production in there. They're

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small producers and then there's ex So I like it.

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It's I think, I think people a good way to

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play the gold sector.

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Speaker 2: All right, I like it. All Right, we'll talk to

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you soon. You got any questions comments for Bob, shoot

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me an email kl at Carrie LUTs dot com. Of course,

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go to the site Financial Survival Network dot com. You

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00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:14,799
get all the links and hey, we'll get you that

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00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,480
list as soon as you send in the request. Put

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Bob's list in the in the subject line. Again, Bob's

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00:28:23,559 --> 00:28:25,839
list in the subject line. Bob, We'll talk to you

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in a couple months or maybe less. Who knows talk

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to you soon?

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Speaker 5: Be walked fun carry anytime, look forward to it.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, your

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00:28:36,039 --> 00:28:39,839
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to

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00:28:40,039 --> 00:28:46,279
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,