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Speaker 2: Welcome. This is Financial Survival Network. I'm your host. Carrie
Let's with us is the esteemed Bob Hoy, master of
economic history, trends and bends. And Bob, we haven't talked
in a while, not since the election, not since all
the trade tensions taking place, not since your last election
last week. And you have our sincerest condolences. There our things.
Speaker 3: In the election.
Speaker 4: Find this new prime minister.
Speaker 5: He is not just the w E F globalist, but
he is a dedicated communist who is you is all
uptight about global warming and sealed suit and the puentative
law laws.
Speaker 4: And bills that Trudeau put in.
Speaker 5: Uh, they're going to stay and he is going to
try and shut down oil and as production in Alberta.
Speaker 4: So the Premier of Alberta, Yeah, Danielle standing and.
Speaker 5: This Canada is going to provide a.
Speaker 4: Lot of political entertainment over the next world.
Speaker 2: All right, so let me let me just interrupt you,
so that those are his good points, that he's a
W E. F stooge and a communists. The bad point
is he's like cunning, you know, animal, a fox who
you don't know what he's capable of. But but I'm
going to postulate something to you. Trump when he kept
insulting Trudeau, saying governor and all that, I believe what
he really was after was not making Canada the fifty
first state. It's making Alberta the fifty first state. That's
the five D chess level, that's the plasma tailgunner level.
That he didn't want Canada because what does the US
need thirty million more liberals for? We got enough problems
with what we had, right.
Speaker 5: Okay, Well, what I think is that.
Speaker 4: I'm looking at what he's doing with.
Speaker 5: Chariss One is to get enough revenues for the federal
government and then with author adding expenditures such that it
can be funded through carfs as and taxes on things
as it was for centuries until in the early nineteen
hundreds when interim tax was introduced. So when it was
introduced fas wrote that this isn't evil, it's a moral
to tax somebody before you get it. So anyways, I
believe that he is going.
Speaker 4: To get rid of income tax, which you've got it,
rid of the irs, gus, and fund the government with
revenues and things, taxes on things.
Speaker 2: Isn't that a genius move? Isn't that a genius move? Does?
Speaker 5: Tax is good?
Speaker 2: But tax, income tax equals control, right, income tax equals control.
That's what it's all about.
Speaker 3: You got it.
Speaker 5: Yeah, But when he takes a run at Hollywood, which
I don't mind somebody poking a stick in Hollywood, but
it's getting to micromanagement.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. But but what he's trying to do
is root out the rot in society. And that's that's
got that's a multipolar universe. It's Hollywood, it's Hollywood, it's
higher so called education. I would call it diseducation if
that's a word. If it's not, it should be a word.
And uh as well as uh, you know the media.
You know there are these polls of rot. So I
don't want to see them saying what you can film
and what you can't. I think the market can do
that fine. I think the market has done it. Look
how it rejected Disney's new tranny. Uh snow white like
it's aid, you know, take that garbage and stick it right.
Speaker 4: Yeah, now yeah, this typically it tariffs have come in
during a real recess.
Speaker 5: And local politicians and beureacrats get upset with high rising
unemployment figures in their own country, and then they went
to protection. And that's very what happened on previous great processions,
if you want to call them that before it's it's
the standard practice. But actually there's a bigger picture thing
you carry, and that is the work that I've done
on financial history, where you do get a great financial bubble,
and this one has been huge, and it's it's the
everything bubble. And when they're complete and the stock market
turns down, the economy turns down virtually with it, whereas
in normal business cycle stuff, the S and P leads
the economy by about a year. And this is why
IDEA and Pete five hundred is included in the leading indicators.
But when you're at the end of a great bubble.
So now my interest here is let's say that the
high end February was the.
Speaker 2: High for the bubble.
Speaker 6: Now what one looks for now it's not just the
bear market developing first starts, but also there should be
the economy starting to sclode very abruptly, and we you know,
I haven't noted anything like that yet.
Speaker 4: But it should be there. So anyways, with the straight up.
Speaker 5: Mania leads to a straight down and then a severe recession,
and actually carries within each of these great depressions in
the past have lasted about twenty years, and the whole
world changes, the standard industry and commerces problems with pricing,
ordinary commodities, metals, brains, whatnot are chronically weak. But when you.
Speaker 7: Take a look at gold, now what gold does and
I the only ways look at it, for he had
it years with the deflated by the TPI, and so
you get the real price of gold.
Speaker 5: So on my charts, the real price of gold, as
the bubble concludes, goes down a little bubble over the
real price goes up. And I like to use the
gold divided by the CRB commodity index. I have assumed
that the CRB is a proxy for mining costs, and
if mining costs are going down relative to the bullion,
the gold sectors making money. And this is what it
was and the lasted in the nineteen thirties. Then also
in the eighteen eighties was a longer rise in gold's
real price, and you culminated eighteen ninety seven with the
conduct gold rush. And for those major gold rushes, you
needed a few things, alluvial gold at the service. None
of those left anymore now, and you needed the high
unemployment that you got to get with a great depression
and then around the world, and then you got unemployedment
the real price of gold going up and level great value,
So then you had the great gold rushes were coordinated
with the bottom of each huge depression. So it's fascinating
how that works, isn't it. So what we're looking for now,
And I like it that the gold divide by the
CRV and it has been recovering very nicely, got over
bought a few a month or so ago and is
just sort of a bit so it's acting like the
bullion price. But but I really like gold divided by commodities,
and it's telling a story that is actually the future
for the for the industry, where gold mining becomes the
best game in town and most industry and commerce are
difficult and mining based medals I've got a chart of
minds and smelters been states from eighteen hours eighteen seventy two,
and that's that great bubble peaked in eighteen seventy three,
and the index, as I recall, was about full hundred
and fifty at its best, and then fifteen years later
it was down to fifty or sixty for gold mining
over offer industrial mining stars, you know, basically copper miners.
And so that's what it's like. The gold miners make
money and those mining the copper make losses.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's unfortunate. So a record gold prices, now we
see it going up, going down one hundred dollars some days,
what is that telling us?
Speaker 5: Well, yeah, it's all part of this incredible volatility.
Speaker 4: Now, in December there was a rush that was the
greatest ten day rush since the nine since on data back.
Speaker 5: To nineteen seventy four. I mean, this this big stop.
And then now I heard a news on the financial
channel here this morning that somewhere like nine consecutive eight
days down. It is a decline of some.
Speaker 4: Relentless so you know things are going to pop.
Speaker 5: But what we.
Speaker 8: Want to look at is that oftentimes con seasonally conditions
can be good into around mid year, and then after
mid year it start looking for a disaster, and then
of course after September things can read all the hell
if it's going to go bad big time.
Speaker 5: All of the major financial panics have occurred in the fall,
and most of them cleared. Worst was in October, sort
of tested and cleared the action in November, but there
was one one in eighteen twenty five, and I have
no idea why they did it, but they panic selling.
Speaker 4: Continued right through Christmas and into the first week in January.
Speaker 5: But the main thing is that that major crashes are
highly probable. If they're going to happen, they'll be in the.
Speaker 2: Fall, right, gotcha? All right, so we're not to worry
for now. And we made it. We made it through March.
We made it through March, which has also become a
major crash month as well.
Speaker 5: Right yeah, Yeah, there's been some setback there. So anyways,
it is always fascinating out there. But what I'm dwelling
upon I'm going to mention again, is they straight up
in things. I'm trying to put together a whole series
or you know, some of the part of the economic series,
and looking for the straight up and then the straight down.
So I don't wish to be ghoulish, but I'm watching
for economic reports that I usually don't follow anyway, but
I just watch for a headline.
Speaker 2: Oh you know that.
Speaker 5: Kind of thing where some some economic series plunges. You'll
see something like.
Speaker 4: That at some point I don't know when. Yeah, gotch
So then this gets us to the sector that we like.
Speaker 5: It's just gold mining. And you got the seniors, you
got the midland sized one, and then you got the juniors.
And I've been in mining exploration works since I graduated
in geology, which is a long time ago. And we
put together as I think it's eleven in it. I've
junior and gold stalks from pre production to small producers to.
Speaker 4: Exploration out now exploration stocks.
Speaker 5: We put it together in December twenty twenty three, and
Pat Ross and I went through the charts of it,
and if you had bought a suite of those things,
it'd be nicely on side. And the reason for getting
into them is that when you really get the bull
market for gold stocks, those small cap starts, they can
really move. And then there's also the possibility I have
somebody making a discovery and I remember one nineteen ninety
six and it was looking like an exploration market to
develop or I got a list of five stocks from
a gold fund manager in Toronto and one of them
was a stock called a.
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, well it with pennies to thirty dollars.
Speaker 5: And they take over for the whole property and everything
else was valued at one point one billion.
Speaker 4: Wow. So just keep in mind they don't know when
there's the possibility of another air Equiper happening, where somebody
does make a discovery that the world and gets in
and participates.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love it. I love it, Matt. So so
what about the profits now? It places small small mining
concerns like Neumont and Barrack. What are they looking at now?
Speaker 5: Oh, well they face the same thing. It all comes
down to the real price and their profit margins. Right,
and one can trade the seniors. But I people want
our list of juniors. They're quite welcome to.
Speaker 4: Get in touch and maybe please.
Speaker 3: To send it out.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll have a link in the show notes so
that you can contact Bob and get that precious list.
We always get like two three dozen people asking for
that list, and it's a good list. So so the
fact is so with Newma barrack thirty five hundred dollars
thirty three hundred dollars gold, their profits are going to
go exponential art dech.
Speaker 5: Oh, Yeah, they're making money because the same thing is
that gold reel price has been acting well yeah, over
bought a couple of months ago and its correcting. But generally,
and as I say, we might again find a people.
I just used the gold divided by the CRB get
a day, you can chart it, whereas if the flight
goal by the CPI the inflation thing, you can only
do that once a month.
Speaker 2: Yeah that's so true, man, so true. Yeah, amazing. It
really is an amazing time to be alive, isn't it.
Speaker 5: Oh it's fascinating out there, and particularly with the financial
and political history that I have. And when you have
a big financial boom.
Speaker 4: Goes bust, the whole world can change.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 5: Nine true.
Speaker 4: Those that were on the scene in eighteen seventy.
Speaker 5: Three, it was almost as band.
Speaker 4: It was.
Speaker 5: It was again a great financial bubble.
Speaker 4: Hit and then the failure and into the whole thing.
Commodity praises, base metal is going down and everything else.
Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, yeah, so true, so true. Hey, so
so what's your take on AI.
Speaker 5: Oh it's fascinating, but I don't think I'm really equipped
to fully understand it.
Speaker 4: And it is a game that requires all kinds of power. Yeah,
like you're you know, power like you wouldn't believe.
Speaker 2: So that's something you do know about.
Speaker 4: Great, it has a great cachet with it. It also
has great costs.
Speaker 2: But that is something you do know about.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Again, it is a financial market phenomenon.
Speaker 5: Yeah, what that means.
Speaker 2: Oh, bubble, I see bubbles in the sky. Yeah, floating upwards,
getting close, getting too close to the sun and then popping.
Speaker 4: Oh that's the chorus effect the Greek the legend in
Greece where Icarus adhered bird feathers to his wings and
he could his arms and he can actually fly.
Speaker 3: And he flew up and.
Speaker 5: Watched and the sun melted the wax and.
Speaker 2: The exactly, yes, exactly exactly that's what I'm talking about.
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, I love it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love it. Love it.
Speaker 4: Oh.
Speaker 9: And then also the busy bodies are coming out with
it's that they can they can reduce global warring by
putting all kinds of particulars up there in the sky.
Speaker 5: Nobody says how much it is going to cost to fire.
Speaker 4: Up rocus to distribute particles of something rather in the sky.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and.
Speaker 5: How much energy is going to take.
Speaker 3: I mean, these guys are.
Speaker 4: Dreamers, just absolutely hopeless dreamers.
Speaker 2: Oh it's good to be a dreamer, though, isn't it.
Speaker 4: Not when it's financials.
Speaker 2: Hey, I'm a dreamer and it hasn't hurt me.
Speaker 4: Okay, okay. So you went back to the to the
Great Depression and the hardship.
Speaker 5: On the farms in Canada and then the States, and
the drought was I'm telling you the heat and the
drought of the twenties into the thirties was exceptional. So
then they went they were trying to seed clouds with
the iron dyine crystals or something there, and the efforts were.
Speaker 4: Made, but you had to it's hard to do that.
You had some clouds, they just didn't have them, so, uh,
you needed clouds. But if there's no clouds, you can't
do it. So this is where you got. These guys
are going to seed the atmosphere with something particulars and
screen out.
Speaker 5: And the heat and there prevent the world frying, you
know what I mean. And that's going Carneie the new
Prime Minister candidate. He really is right into the whole
global warming thing and you must do this and must
do that. And so it's prompting a very serious movement
by the Province of Alberta and Tashketchewan to leave the
Confederation of Canada. I'm all for it. I think it's
a great idea.
Speaker 2: Hey, well, you know we were talking about this pre call.
I'm going to tell you what my thought is. I
believe that this was Trump's plan from the beginning. He
wants he didn't really want all of Canada because the
last thing the United States needs is thirty more more
million liberals. What he was really after, He's always been
after Alberta because that is a gold mine, both literally
and figuratively for the United States.
Speaker 5: Right.
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, No, My view is that he wants to
have an open border for people.
Speaker 5: And goods and services, and then the whole trading block
because Canada the United States. And then also from this
is that over the beginning decades ago, I mean probably
the last great the person, the tariffs and protectionism from
province to province got out of control as wow. So
now there is a genuine movement in Canada to get
rid of the tariffs, promise to province. It's this good
stuff and I and I believe it's going to happen.
Speaker 2: It's good stuff, it's brilliant. It's like, who a trof,
this could be done?
Speaker 5: Right?
Speaker 2: Who would think that it could ever be done?
Speaker 5: Now? The attitude is there. People are just getting realized
a lot of things. They're pretty stupid. But the leader
of the opposition in Canada, Pierre pod I've written a
year ago that he is the most competent and attractive
Conservative of leader since Ronald Reagan. The guy is very
good and also he's extremely bright. He did a and
address on well I was called Flag Day in the States,
I think I called it Family Day in Canada. And
I was so impressed with this thing. And then one
of the commentators and business commentators out of Toronto the
next day wrote that recorded that pauliev wrote that whole
address himself. Really, Oh no, he this guy is something
else again.
Speaker 4: No, I have the highest regard.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I'm a believer in him too. I think
he's pretty good. But I don't think he handled the
election properly. But maybe those.
Speaker 5: Yeah, he needs a major do to watch for traps.
But the liberals, i e. The government changed the writing
and then they had a ballot with ninety names.
Speaker 4: On it and was about eighty down. They the liberals,
think of everything.
Speaker 2: Oh you'll stop at nothing. They'll stop it nothing.
Speaker 5: And there is also probably ballot stolen or delivered when
they were needed. So no, that.
Speaker 4: An election was rigged against him.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well you're supposed to be ready for this stuff.
Trump wasn't ready the first time either. We see what
happened there, but now a little different.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, he's got to handle on it.
Speaker 5: So yeah, yeah, definitely Trump is unique in history as
far as I'm able. I look back a couple of
hundred years, and there have been reformers, but nothing like this.
Trump is his own man, and I wasn't I think
when he came.
Speaker 4: Down the elevator at Trump Tower and then announced, I
don't think he really grasped where he was and what.
Speaker 5: It didn't take him.
Speaker 2: It's a reality TV show, right, Yeah, he's.
Speaker 4: But he's got it, so no, I haven't. There's nobody
there trump in history that I that I have been.
Speaker 2: Able to see.
Speaker 3: So yeah, and I admire him, and he's going to
help save the Western world from the wfers, communist, whatever
you want to call him.
Speaker 4: These days, control.
Speaker 2: Freaks couldn't agree with you more, could not agree with
you more. Hey, So all right, so when we talk
again in a few months, are we in a recession
or not?
Speaker 5: Just well, this is what I'm looking for. We've had
the spike up in the financials, a spike down and
it should be accompanied by weakening economic numbers.
Speaker 4: So we're watching for weakening economic numbers.
Speaker 2: All right, sounds good. So Bob, the list you got
your favorite mining stocks on that list? Has it changed
much since the last one?
Speaker 4: List of prime primes.
Speaker 5: Put together by guys have been on the street for
a million years and they know they they know the action,
and so they said there's pre production in there. They're
small producers and then there's ex So I like it.
It's I think, I think people a good way to
play the gold sector.
Speaker 2: All right, I like it. All Right, we'll talk to
you soon. You got any questions comments for Bob, shoot
me an email kl at Carrie LUTs dot com. Of course,
go to the site Financial Survival Network dot com. You
get all the links and hey, we'll get you that
list as soon as you send in the request. Put
Bob's list in the in the subject line. Again, Bob's
list in the subject line. Bob, We'll talk to you
in a couple months or maybe less. Who knows talk
to you soon?
Speaker 5: Be walked fun carry anytime, look forward to it.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, your
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,