Speaker 1: All right, welcome in.
Speaker 2: It is Tuesday, it's time for Total Bases and you're
all watching this on demand. We had a little issue
with our video stream on the live, so we're just
gonna record this. This will well, you should be seeing
this mid morning as it gets up to the wager
Talk YouTube channel. So yeah, we're gonna just show's not
gonna change. We're gonna get right into it.
Speaker 1: And I did tweet out, so I'll be looking at
Twitter for questions. But Brian Leonard, I'm.
Speaker 2: Gonna start with this game because I think we all
saw it similar last night and it did not go
the way anyone planned. And that's Red's Dodgers. Red's laid
an egg last night, seven nothing lost. I think we
all thought that they were maybe a little bit of
value in that spot. I thought the over was in
play and I got seven runs there from the Dodgers.
Yet the Reds contributed nothing. Not the only team we
sort of saw fall flat in a spot where where
they needed a win. Now they come back another big
game tonight. It looks like Kershaw Versusnick Martinez. Can the
Reds bounce back here?
Speaker 3: Well, we've talked about teams that need to win, and
if you need to win, that means you're not that good.
And that's the problem with Cincinnati. I love the team,
being from Cleveland, that's the team I root for the
National League. I'm in Pittsburgh, but they're falling fast and
it doesn't help that they're on the road against the Dodgers.
Kershaw going against Martinez today, Kershaw is a basically about
a one to eighty favorite right now, a total of nine.
If you're taking a look at offense, as in the
last two weeks, Cincinnati has been poor. Are there at
eighty four w RC plus, which is twenty fourth in
the league. The Dodgers number nine at one o nine.
Neither team really hitting great, especially Cincinnati. They're struggling a
little bit. But that's the way I'm looking at this one.
And as you've got Nick Martinez four point five to
nine ERA four point one zero expected one point two
a whip, he's deserved a little bit better than what
his numbers have been this year. His career numbers after
eight seasons four point one seven, and what he's gotten
hit this year, he's gotten hit hard. So he's one
of those guys that is very similar to a lot
of the players out there in Major League Baseball, Well,
one day they look great, the next day they look terrible.
And his stech show SEC has paid shows that really
his walk rate eighty seven percent tell heard hit rate
eighty fifth are both impressive. He only walks five point
seven percent, but his chase rate, his whiff rate, and
his extension are all in bottom ten. That is what
is heard in this year. Clayton Kershaw. My hat's off
to him. I thought he was done last year. Comes
in with an eight and two record, three point one
three ERA, three point nine to six expected, one point
two a whip and his is very similar. Where what
he's good at, he's very good. He is barrel right
ninety fourth percentile, ground ball right eighty sixth walk great
eighty second. But he's got no fastball at all. He's
in the second percentile of fastball velocity six percent of strikeouts.
Throws the four pitches, but it's for seeing you only
throws thirty five percent of the time because it's only
eighty nine miles an hour, which is four miles an
hour less than an average left handed pitcher. I prefer
the Dodgers here, but I'm not going to lay that number,
maybe find a way to play. Maybe the Cincinnati team
total under, but there's plenty of games on the board today.
That's just my first thoughts on this one.
Speaker 4: So everyone, it's five dollars Tuesday at wager Talk and
we are all going to have a five dollars playout.
Minds up already free plays up as well. So go
to wager talk dot com and see what these three
marvelous kappers have offer today regarding this game. Yeah, pretty
surprise to see the Dodgers shut down the Reds like that,
But the Dodgers are hitting better than the Reds. I
have the Reds in current form ranked twenty two, where
I have the Dodgers ranked eleven in hitting. The bullpen
is heavily in the reds favor though, And I got
these two pictures ranked neck and neck. I know Nick
Martinez is not as good of a picture as Clayton Kershaw,
but Clayton Kershaw is on the end of the tail
end of his career. But as far as expected numbers
and how they've been performing in current form, I have
them neck and neck. I mean no difference. Nick Martinez
actually has pretty good numbers against these Dodgers batters in
his history in eighty four at bats. But a lot
of those numbers might have been compiled before he went
to Japan and came back, So I don't know how
much credence we can put in those numbers. This looks
deadlocks to me. If anything, I think the Dodgers or
the Reds might come back today. Clayton Kershaw is doing
his rejuvenation act. He's he's gotten young again. Hopefully this
isn't old Clayton Kershaw, who's great in the regular season
and stinks in the postseason. Maybe he can get some
some wins in the postseason as well this year. We'll
we'll see about that. But regarding today's game, too close
to call for me.
Speaker 2: I think I'd run it right back with the over here.
I see there are signs of regression for both starting pitchers.
Reminds me a little bit of our conversation on on
Mets Phillies last night, where I thought, you know, I
couldn't quite get there with the Mets because I thought,
you know, maybe there was regression science for both starting pitchers,
and we saw a bunch of runs in that game.
Speaker 1: Kind of the same way I feel about this game.
I'd love to find a way to play the Reds.
Speaker 2: I think if that, if Kershaw and the Dodgers were
to continue to take money and suddenly I could get
Reds plus one and a half in like the minus
one twenty range, I might be like inclined to jump
in with the Reds. But if not, then the way
it would have to look at this one would be
the over. You're getting the nine flat, which is appealing,
of course, if you know, nine is much much more
appealing from an over standpoint than nine and a half.
If both teams get to four, you're you're you're not
gonna lose. So that's, you know, certainly something. It's a number.
If I'm looking to play an over, you kind of
like to find eight and a half or nine if
you can. I feel like that's kind of the sweet
spot for overs. And you're getting that here. And then,
just you know, off of a lot of what you
guys have said, Uh, neither neither Pitcher striking anyone out,
not a ton of swing and miss out at either side.
Dodgers off and showed up last night put up seven
runs off Hunter Green. I can't believe that, you know,
with the total of eight. I can't believe we couldn't
get one single run from the Reds. So it's like,
you know, I think that the concern going into last
night's game was where the Dodger is gonna come out flat,
and they they certainly didn't. It was an easy win
for them, you know, even even with it maybe extra
day of rest. The Reds bullpen is not some you know,
it has not been great this year, and we've kind
of talked about the Dodgers at times struggling in that
department as well. I think for more of how they
had the bullpen set up standpoint, but still they've shown the.
Speaker 1: Ability to give up runs. So Reds plus one and
a half.
Speaker 2: It came back in the range. But the over I
think has some value here, like even at nine. I
think that may have moved. I think it was eight
and a half and kind of quickly moved up to nine.
I still see some value at the over of nine
in this game. So that's the way I would lean
in this one. All right, let's head, I'm gonna head
over to Twitter. I don't I don't even know if
people have seen the tweet yet, which is fine.
Speaker 1: I'm sure they come to the to the YouTube channel.
I was.
Speaker 2: I was just looking over there for questions comments, because
we still we still want to try to run off
the chat if we can. But since no one's asked
for a specific game, let's go to Let's go.
Speaker 1: To Brian Leonard. You were right about the Guardians last night.
Speaker 2: That was And how about Ian Seymour finally gets his
first career start, pays it off as I thought he might,
no doubt or for you on the Rays. Now he
got another young guy that I thought pitched considerably well
last week, even though the Guardians choked the game away
for me at the end, and that was Parker Messick.
Speaker 1: Now, I think if you watched the start.
Speaker 2: He maybe was a little bit fortunate, you know, with
a couple of base running mistakes from the Diamondbacks in
that game, and he did sort of, you know, kind
of pitch his way out of a couple of jams.
So now it's gonna be Messi's second big league start,
but his first one in front of the home fans.
Do you have any faith in your Guardian's here? Just
the losing continue for Cleveland?
Speaker 3: Yeah? Boy. That makes the ten games in which they've
the most they scored was five runs. That was once.
I believe he scored four runs once. Every other one
has been worse, was shut out four or five times.
The Cleveland Bats, we've talked about it all season that
they're not very good and it's really showing up now
that they're not going to be able to make the playoffs.
It's time to bring up the young guys, and I
hope Cleveland does that get some of these guys out
of there that is not going to be a future
for the Guardians. Boz going against Messic. Messic is about
a one to fifteen favorite right now, total of eight
to the under or seven and a half to the over.
From my standpoint, when I look at this Parker Messick,
as you pointed out, he was a little bit lucky.
He had a one point three five ERA one point
two a whip, but was expected. The IRA was four
point three three. That said, if you've followed my handicapping
over the years, you know I love these unknown lefties
that teams bring up, and this is the year of
the lefty. It's been the big talk. I've talked about
this all year long. The lefties are the team or
the guys that are having success, and so there's been
value on lefties, but now everybody knows about it, so
you're not going to find it like you did earlier
in the season. But I love lefties, and they're facing
somebody who hasn't seen him before, and that's the Rays here,
So I expect messing or mess excuse me, to have
a good pitching game. Shane Baz going for Tampa. It's
got the eight and ten record, five point two two ERA,
but he hasn't hitting a luck all season long is expected.
The RA is only three point nine to three. His
whip's a little high at one point three seven. He's
got a great fastball eighty seventh percentile, ground ball rate
seventy fifth percentile. The only thing he struggles with is
the barrel rate only in the fifteenth percentile. But he's
facing the team right now. It's not burrowing anything up
from one from you know, they got two hitches straight
from from one to nine. This Cleveland team is nobody
on this team that is really hitting well. They've had
guys go on mini streaks, but for the most part,
they are not hitting at all. So if I'm looking
at this game, I think both offense is going to
continue to struggle. I would either look for the under
or I would look for a way to play maybe
Tampa Bay under a little for a team total, because
I think the lefty MESSI is going to have some success.
And the good thing is for Cleveland stand points is
they're not scoring, they're not winning, so all their best
bullpen arms are going to be available.
Speaker 4: The Guardians are not a team I want to be
backing right now, but I will here. Here's a statistic
for you. Boz has given up thirty earned run in
his last twenty eight innings pitch. That's not good. His
saving grace is that he pitches better on the road
than at home. But I think if the Guardians are
going to win a game, which look baseball underdogs have
every shot to win. Even the worst of the worst,
excluding the Colorado Rockies, can win thirty to thirty forty
percent of their games. Cleveland's gonna win a game here eventually,
and I think this will be it. If they're going
to I don't I said in yesterday's show that I
don't put a lot of credence on lefty versus ritings,
but in this situation, I do, because it's a new
picture that the Rays haven't seen, and so in this case,
I think the lefty righty thing is very relevant because
it's a picture they haven't seen before, and he's a
new guy in MLB. The Rays right now are hitting
sixty and the Guardians are right now are hitting thirty.
So it's really hard to put faith in a team
that's hitting that badly right now. But I just think
either the Guardians team total over or Guardians win here
would be the player. I haven't played it yet, just
because their batting is just so bad. But bad has
given up thirty runs in his last twenty eight innings.
You can't expect him to have a good game here,
even against this offense. So if I were to bet it,
that's how I would go, But I haven't done it yet.
Speaker 1: I didn't, you know, pick these games.
Speaker 2: The two games that I've picked so far just happened
to be probably my two strongest totals opinions of the day.
So we talked about an over and Reds Dodgers. I
would go under here. I don't like either of these lineups.
The Rays don't really hit either. Last night's deceiving fourteen hits,
nine runs on fourteen hits, but Bibby didn't have much,
and then they kind of tacked on against the back
end of the Guardian's bullpen. You should see much better
from the Guardians here from a pitching standpoint, even if
even with Messik maybe being a little bit fortunate to only.
Speaker 1: Give up what he gave up.
Speaker 2: I think the one run against the Diamondbacks, I still
thought he threw it well challenged hitters. And let's be honest,
the Rays lineup is not even in close to the
caliber of an offensive unit that the Diamondbacks. Even with
the Diamondbacks struggles, I think that goes unnoticed at times.
Still a very good lineup, even without Josh Naylor and
Eugenius Words. It's still a quality, quality lineup, and there's
tough at bats one through nine. Brian made a good
point last week about the team speed of that Diamondbacks team,
the base running. The Rays have a little of that,
but they don't they don't pack nearly the punch that
Arizona does, and so I think this is actually a
far more favorable setup for Messic.
Speaker 1: He's at home.
Speaker 2: I know he's probably never pitched at progressive field, but
you know, Columbus is down the road, and it's like
it's still a better pitching setup than having to pitch
at a Chase Field, which is is very hit or
friendly ballpark, and the Rays have probably very you know,
these guys have probably seen him limited. I'm sure there's
some familiarity Columbus and Durham do play, but they probably
haven't seen a ton of him. On the other side, Chambas,
he's my guy. I've talked about it a number of
times on this show. I've always been probably higher than
the market on him, and I'm still higher than the
market on him, especially when I think you guys kind
of both pointed out expected Era A numbers. You know,
he's been a little bit unlucky, and that's a profile
that I kind of like to try to back if
I like a guy and they've been unlucky, and it
looks like someplay a spot they can have success, and
who's not having success against this Guardian's lineup right now?
Speaker 1: So I'll call this one under. I think it's seven
and a half.
Speaker 2: I think you know, it's another strong strong totals look
on the board today. All right, we have so a
couple of things before we go on to the next game.
If since everyone's gonna be watching the show on demand
today because the live link was what sort of broke down,
drop your comments and questions below. I know myself, I'll
make sure I spend extra time in the comment section today,
So if you've got a comment or a question, drop
it below the the YouTube replay and one of the
three of us will get in and answer your questions comments,
because you know that that is the basis of this
show is interaction with the chat, and we don't have
you guys today.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna spend extra time in the comments section.
Speaker 2: So so again you're gonna be watching this on YouTube
before you hit the comments section, though, like and subscribe
if you haven't already.
Speaker 1: It helps the show tremendously. Guys.
Speaker 2: We have some comments rolling in on Twitter right now,
so let's go to Colin Gregory wants to talk Padres Mariners.
This was when we got right from the show yesterday.
I saw some chat. I mean I I played the
Royals yesterday, so clearly not a good day for me.
That game was over before it even started. But one
we kind of all got right yesterday was the Mariners
came out.
Speaker 4: You guys got it right?
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, I remember someone like the Mariners.
Speaker 2: Maybe it was Brian, but I I know I like
the Mariners yesterday as well.
Speaker 1: It got there in the end, you know, big series here.
Speaker 2: I still think both of these teams have a lot
to play for in their respective leagues. Obviously, both in
really still kind of hot battles for the division right now.
Tonight it's going to be Dylan Cees and we got
Luis Castillo on the mound for the Mariners. Right, will
you go the other way here? Do you think the
Padres even this series up today?
Speaker 3: Yeah? Yesterday it was a dream day for not only
myself and my clients, but anybody who watched the show,
because it's one of those days where everything, basically everything
I had worked out well. I was Detroit was a
popular play and I and money was coming in against him.
I've seen that many times. And of course they leave
with the school bl schoolball. Uh pitches another really good
game and Athletics come back late ruined our parlay. Actually
I thought we had a winner there. Uh, but yeah,
it's it's hopefully I can be half as good today
as I was yesterday. We are looking at what game
what game were Okay, Sorry, I started talking about Detroit
and I thought going there. Cecia Castillo. Castillo is about
a one to fifteenth Pavoit right now, total of seven
and a half to the over, eight to the under
or even. He can get even money at the eight.
I like Seattle yesterday, and I like Dylan Ceas, but
he has not really had a good season. He's had
terrible luck all year long. Comes into the four point
seven to one ERA three point five to two expected.
Talked about that yesterday to be you know, basically one
point two or one point two runs higher than what
you expecting. The aria is he's had very very bad luck.
His whips won thirty two and his statues pay shows
that all of his metrics look really impressive for the
most part, with rate ninety fifth percent, strike out r
eight ninetieth. But he's had a problem with walks, and
that's something that he's walked in his career. He's got
a ten point zero walk rate, which is about one
point six better than league average, should be worse than
the average hiredly gamers, but his walk rates twenty fourth
percentile barrel rate twenty first in Green Bay or Green
Bay ball rates football season round ball rate twenty second percentile.
So he's a guy that I continue to find value on,
but that expected value just hasn't come back and gotten them.
And then Luis Crews three point for Castillo three point
five seventy right four point thirty nine expected. So just
by looking at that, your normal wise guys be going
to be looking at San Diego in this game. I
guess I'm kind of looking the same way. I don't
know if I'm gonna get there. But Castillo's extensions in
the first percentile hard hit rate, the seventh barrel fourteenth
thanks of velocity fifteenth. The only thing he does really
well is he keeps down on the walks six point
five percent for the second year in a row. I've
been looking for good spots to go against Seattle and
at Castill. This may be the best one out there.
So you're getting San Diego, who ceases them at least
to me, the much better pitcher, and you're getting them.
But the only problem, you're only getting them at plus
one hundred plus one oh five. I don't know that's
enough because Seattle is so good at home. So may
try to find a way of betting Seattle team total
under something to that effect. But that's the way I
would look at this one at this point.
Speaker 4: Five dollars Tuesday, guys, So all day on wager talk
dot com, you can get our best plays for five dollars.
So go to wages talk dot com. Minds up already.
I have a free playout as well, and these two
guys certainly will have something out if they don't already. Yeah,
I was the one who liked the Padres yesterday. Actually
I was off on almost everything yesterday. I liked the Nationals,
they got crushed. I like the Padres crushed. Who else
that I liked that got crushed? There were two other
teams that I liked that got crushed. So everything was
off yesterday. But you know, I'm gonna bet baseball almost
three hundred days this year, so I can deal with
one bad day. I lost two bets which were two
percent each, so yeah, I can deal with that number
one in twenty twenty five, so I can deal with that.
Regarding this one, my numbers line up again in favor
of the Padres. But I have two big red flags.
The first red flag is cease against these batters has
a pretty bad history. To sixty eight average against in
an eight forty three OPS. I don't like that very much.
Castillo's numbers against the padre is not much better, to
eighty average against and seven oh seven ops. His ops
is okay, but the average is a little too high.
It means they're they're hitting a lot on him, but
not scoring a lot, not a lot of long balls.
They're hitting a bunch of singles and he's getting away
with it. So these are pretty big samples too, So
that would make me say, oh, let's look at the over. However,
San Diego's bullpen just on fire. You wouldn't think that
after watching yesterday. Their bullpen just barfed on all over
the field. Yesterday they were horrible. San Diego had a
four to two lead and their bullpen just scacked it away.
So their bullpen still is better than Seattle's in my opinion.
Seattle really improved their lineup at the trade deadline, though,
so they have a lot of dangerous batters from one
to nine. But still I have San Diego ranked about
seven points higher than Seattle, and I have Cease regarding
his expected numbers and current form three points higher than Castillo.
Not a lot the problem with Cease is Brian mentioned,
is he walks too many guys. I have him as
one of my chronic walkers on my chronic walker lists.
So regarding, you know, taking him against this dangerous lineup
with his bad history and has he's walking too much,
his command is not what it what it should be.
I don't really want to take them today, but I
don't want to take Seattle either. If anything, I would
look at an over, maybe the Padres team total over
perhaps in this one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I you know, I think this is kind of
a good matchup for ceas. I know he does walk guys,
but the Mariners lineup really does swing for the fences
a lot of times. And it's like if you've watched
Cease over the last well really this season, but like
since since the second half or since the All Star break,
where I do think he has thrown the ball better
in the second half, it's the walks that have killed him.
And then but he's still racking up the strikeouts, so
he you know, he's kind of almost been like effectively
wild in some scenarios. Now, it wasn't effective against the Dodgers,
of course, that was the game where he had six
walks and couldn't get out of the fourth inning, and
the Dodgers you know, got to him for for like
three or four runs. But in some of these other starts,
like he wiped out the Cardinals five innings, shutout innings,
nine strikeouts, five and a third shutout innings against the Nats,
you know, ten strikeouts in that one, had a good
start against the Red Sox two runs over six innings,
seven strikeouts, Still had the couple walks last time out
against the Giants. I felt like, you know, it's a
little bit deceiving that stat line. They had a huge
lead in that game. I don't know that they you know,
they kind of just like he was really strong for
five innings, goes back out there for the six, give
us up a couple of runs, but I think it
was like eight two at that point. So it was
almost like, all right, we'll just see, if you know what,
We'll just kind of let him go and get his
allotment of pitches in. When he left the game still
seven strikeouts in line for the wins. So, you know,
and then you go to this, you know what Brian
was talking about expected dra Is is much you know
lower his expected dra is much lower than his actually
ra the batting averages there, he still throws ninety eight.
You would expect Sees to like, you know, kind of
figure it out at some point.
Speaker 1: I just feel like and and he's a veteran.
Speaker 2: It's not like it's not like we haven't seen Dylan
Sees be really good for long stretches of time. So
I look at him and I think it's in there.
And then, you know, talk about the Padres bullpen. This
is still an elite relief unit that's actually set up
pretty nicely here, whereas the Mariners have used some guys
like there's some bullpen usage on the Mariners side. And
the one guy I want no part of this in
this rotation really is Luis Castillo. I feel like he's
the one sort of most do to get bombed at
this point. Of the starters that they have, he probably
has the worst stuff at this point. He doesn't generate
a lot of swing and miss. He's giving up hard
hit all over the place. So I'll actually use the
part of Padres for my parlay, like this might make
my client card too. Like Brian said, I think this
is a really good spot for the Padres and this
is still a very good baseball team. Not gonna find
the Padres at this sort of price, in my opinion,
very often. So, Brian, what what's the Padres money line
right now?
Speaker 3: Yes, currently plus one hundred. The the a lot of
the places that are the weaker books as opposed to
the Sharper ones. There you're laying a little bit, but
the Sharper books there you're getting anywhere from plus one
hundred to plus one oh four, So it evens out
to about a plus one hundred.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say anything in and around that
even money range.
Speaker 1: I kind of feel like Padres end up in like.
Speaker 2: The minus one oh five minus one ten range at
some point today I think, I think you're gonna see
the market gravitate towards the Padres here. So yeah, well
we'll take even money there for for Padres, as as
my parlay leg Okay, back to Twitter. Ethan Bainbridge, one
of our regulars in the chat. Uh, he is now
on Twitter saying, you know, thoughts on on National's Yankees
Today TV.
Speaker 1: I was kind of wrong on that one too. I
lead the Nats, thankfully.
Speaker 2: Some of the other chat kind of got in my
head and got me thinking, and I did kind of
talk myself off of it as we were as we
were doing on the show, Brian Leonard, the Yankees do
kind of blow out these teams, right, these these bottom
feet are teams. That's like it's almost another way that
the Yankees sort of like hype up their profile as
a team, especially this year, and then they just go
play a real team like the Red Sox and get
blasted for a weekend.
Speaker 1: But there is something to that.
Speaker 2: I do feel like the Yankees typically kind of you know,
flex at home on lesser teams like the Nationals. They've
also been pretty good against left handed pitching. So do
you give the Nats much of a bump for Mackenzie
Gore here or is this gonna be more Yankees in
the Bronx today.
Speaker 3: Yeah, he is one of their better pitchers, of not
their best, but he had struck a little bit, you know,
the second half of the season. Lewis heel back from injury.
He comes in and we're looking at about a one
eighty favorite with the Yankees here. Total of nine. Mackenzie
Gore on the season four point one to one, ra
four point two to one, expected, one point three to
five whip. His whip has always been highest. Career whip
is one point four. What he's good at very similar
to a lot of the pitchers we've talked about today.
What he's good at, he's good at, and when he's
bad at, he's bad at. So the strike rate eighty
six percentile, WIF rate eighty third extension eighty fifth. But
when he's getting hit, he's getting hit hard. His barrel
rate seventeenth percentile, hard hit rate twenty fifth, and he's
only in the twenty fifth percentile in ground ball rate,
which means fly balls. And this is not a good
team to go against when you when you have a
lot of fly balls, and it's not a good place
to go against him. As I mentioned yesterday, the Yankees,
I've got, you know, a few teams. I've got twice
so many home runs over the Pittsburgh Pirates on the
season that that's hard to believe, even though Pittsburgh pitches
in a slightly pitchers park. It's it's still crazy that
one lineup cannot hit home runs. Heel four point two six, ERA,
four point eight eight expected, one point sixty eight whip.
That's been his problem is his career one point two
seven whip his strike on numbers if you take a
look from his rookie season. Now, this is something that
concerns me with heel. I know he's trying to pitch differently,
he's trying not to walk as many batters. But he
started off at twenty twenty one at twenty nine point
five percent strike out rate, down to twenty six point
three twenty six point eight this year twenty twenty point zero,
and yet his walk rate is fifteen point three. It's
even higher than it's been any other time in his career.
Granted small sample size, he is coming off of injury.
You got to give give him credit for that. But
he's a guy that they're trying to get to not
be so dominant on his fastball because he's in the
seventieth eighth percentile in his fastball velocity eighty fifteen extension.
But his ground ball rate is low. So he's a
guy who gives up a lot of fly balls. So
I got two pitchers give up a lot of fly
balls here, and that kind of points me towards the
over at open eight and a half twenty is now
it's nine, as high as minus fifteen, but I still
think that's the way I would take a look at this.
The Yankees bullpen they struggle with all year long, and
to watch this got the worst bullpen in baseball. So
I prefer the over here over nine and you're getting
it minus one fifteen. That's the way I would play
this one.
Speaker 4: Alright, Dollar Tuesday, guys, go to wayotalk dot com. See
what kappers have available for five bucks. Yeah, heel is
kind of an enigma because his last two starts he's
only given up two earned runs in ten innings, and
start before that he only gave up two. So if
you look at that, you say, wow, he's not bad.
But then you look at his walk ratio. He's walking
almost eight eighty of the guys he's striking out. His
expected numbers terrible. If you include expected era in current form,
he ranks twenty two out of thirty on a curve
of thirty starting pitchers. Not good. Gore started out the
season on fire. He was actually like a top ten pitcher,
and then he's just fallen off a cliff. He hasn't
been good lately at all. And his numbers against these
Yankees in his career fifty three at bats against. He's
been tagged for a three h two average and a
nine to twenty eight ops against those terrible numbers. So
I would look too an over here. Neither bullpen very good.
I mean, the Yankees have talent in their bullpen. They're
not performing though. I think there's a lot of guys
on this Yankee roster that are feeling a little bit
of pressure, which is funny because they're basically qualified for
the playoffs right now. I mean, they could lose that spot,
but if the Oils or Texas stepped their game up,
they could lose that spot. But the Yankees are in
playoff position right now and they're still feeling pressure, which
is kind of funny because if a team like the
Guardians or the Diamondbacks were in the playoff position, they'd
be celebrating. But this is what playing in New York
is all about. Yeah, both teams have good hitters. I
mean I said in previous shows the Yankees are just
an average team, but actually they're hitting right now. You know,
Bellinger and guys besides Judge are actually hitting right now.
Jazzism is put in back to back home run games.
I would I would look tune over here. I haven't
played it yet.
Speaker 2: You're muted, Adam, Yeah, the dog the dogs are barkingcided
about that.
Speaker 1: I don't I don't think you're I don't think you're
wrong about the Yankees being an average team. I just
think they're on there. You know, they're on one of
their little upticks. And I do think there's something too,
you know, them being at home against an inferior team
like the Nationals.
Speaker 2: These are games that they're probably gonna win. Uh, you know, biggest,
biggest thing. I hate that we all agree, but this
this really does feel like it over. And the reason
I think that is, you know, I think you're getting
I think you still get some credit for Mackenzie Gore,
like he is the Nationals ace and and I do
think he gets.
Speaker 1: A little bit of market love.
Speaker 2: Maybe it's not on the line here, but but I
think the total being nine maybe reflects like two pitchers
that the books feel are like a little bit above average,
because you know, heel is like a tough case because
of course he's coming off injury. When he's healthy, he
can be very very solid. You know, he's really been
pretty good since he got called back up. I'm sorry,
since he came back from injury. He's been pretty solid.
Last three starts, two earned right. You know, he's pitched
five or more in all three, hasn't given up more
than two runs, so he's been solid. But I'll go
back to something I've said all year with the Nationals.
It didn't work out yesterday, but they do sort of
profile as a better option against right handed pitching.
Speaker 1: They're not a team I want against the lefty, but.
Speaker 2: I like, you know, they typically generate some offense when
they go up against the right handed starter.
Speaker 1: Now you talked about the Yankees hitting Tokyo Brandon.
Speaker 2: The Yankees are number one in Major League Baseball WRC
plus against left handed pitching, one nineteen. That's very good.
They have killed lefties this year and they've done it
all season. So you get one again in Mackenzie Gore here,
who struggled a little bit, who maybe still gets a
little market respect. I think you have to look at
the over because, yeah, the Nationals have nothing in that
bullpen right now.
Speaker 1: There's a couple of good arms that can hold their own.
Speaker 2: But like, if you're looking at that collection of pitchers,
it's gonna get out of hand and then you're gonna
start to see like this is the other thing you
might start to see with the Nationals. They have so
few arms they really trust at this point that if
they do get behind, it's gonna probably get out of
hand because they're still gonna sort of manage this to
have like they're gonna want their good arms to potentially
win some games. Like there's still I know they're fifty
three and seventy eight, but they're still trying to set
up to win some games. So if they fall behind
and then you go with like the sixth or seventh
guy in the in you know, on the pecking order
in that bullpen, there's gonna be add on runs, no question.
And so I think over nine makes total sense. I
would have had this at ten for a number. So
I think you are getting a little line dow you
there with the total of nine. All right, let's move
on and get a head back to Twitter here. Remember
we are we are doing this show. We had a
little technical difficulty today, So if you're watching, well you
you are watching on demand, drop your questions and comments
in the chat. We're all going to spend more time
in the chat today, so we want to make sure
you know that we we still include you guys because
we miss you here. We're on, you know, doing this
record and just doesn't doesn't feel the same not having
the chat going on the right hand side. Hopefully we'll
be back live tomorrow nine am Eastern, like we have
been every day so far this season.
Speaker 1: All right, let's go back to the chat. Chat wants
to talk about Angels Rangers. I have a couple of
requests for this game.
Speaker 2: I personally have an opinion on this game, so I'm
glad we're bringing this one up. Brian Leonard the Rangers,
it's like every I feel like they should be so
far out of this race at this point, but it's
almost like they either play their way back in or
they lose when the other teams lose. So it's like
every day I pull up the standings, I'm like, there's
still only five games back. They've lost two games, yet
they're still only five back within striking distance at this point.
The Angels have kind of played their way out of it,
I would say, even with a win last night. So
Angels Rangers a couple lefties, A couple lefties that I
don't think Tokyo Brandon cares for particularly much here Kakuochie
and Patrick Corbin and the Rangers clinging on to the
slightest hopes of a playoff spot in the American League.
So how are you seeing this one, Angels Rangers do?
Does a home team bounce back here?
Speaker 3: Yeah? This is another one of those games that I
talk about at the end of the show yesterday where
I thought there was value on the dog and the
Angels saw the shut out Texas. They're not going to
the playoffs. I got a six point nine percent chance
of making the playoffs right now. They just lost the
game they needed to have with their best pitcher on them, well,
obviously one of the two of their two best pitchers,
because they've got a couple of guys having really nice seasons.
But I don't want any part of Texas. This is
a team I'm looking to fade. Corbin saw better days
earlier in the season than he's had now. Cokuchi is
starting to get it back again, and you're getting it
basically to pick up situation. Currently, the line is the
Angels minus basically one eight one ten. Let's go one
ten in eight and a half on the total. The
Angels with Kakuchie on the mound. He's only got that
hot six and eight record, but three point four two
ERA four point three to nine expected, so he's been
a little lucky. One point four to two whip isn't pretty.
His extension is excellent in the eighth percentile. But other
than that, there's not a lot more red on his
stackcast page, a lot of blue average eggs of velossity
ninth percentile. He's getting hit, He's getting hit pretty good.
Patrick Carbin four point six to one ERA, a four
point sixty six expected. Yeah, that's about what we probably
expected coming into the season after he got off to
that great start of the year. One point four to
one whip always been a problem for him. He walks
too many guys, gives up too many. It's actually walk
Ridge just is basically about league average, is a little
bit better, but he gives up a lot of solid hits.
His fastball velocity twelve percentile, his striker eight twenty six,
ground ball rate thirty first, so fly a lot of
fly balls there. Basically slider, sinker, cutter is what he
goes with, but he does have six pitches. I kind
of like the Angels here. I think the Angels looking
from an offensive standpoint, they're much better heading team. Granted,
this is a ballpark that doesn't give up a lot
of home runs this year, and that's a lot what
they do. But you know, the Angels, the Angel's been
out of it for a while and they continue to
to fight. I'm not sure if Texas has that fight
in him. Again, keep in mind, there's the team just
what two years ago went to the World Series. Just
a parting season for Texas. They're not going to make
the playoffs, and I think everybody knows that except for
them Prova.
Speaker 4: The Angels are extremely scrappy. Man, these guys. These guys
play their butts off and they they have every for
the last three four years. Even we know Tony was
on the team. These guys play. They got some decent
bats in their lineup. I mean, I like the Hope
guy and Ward, and I mean they've got some decent
bats Trout as well. I mean, obviously, Trout in his
prime was one of the best pure hitters in baseball,
a great five tool guy. He's not that anymore, unfortunately,
but he's still a solid hitter. So I like the
Angels how they match up in this But I don't
like their hitting. The problem is I got the Angels
ranked higher than Texas that everything except run production. Now
Texas I have them dead average at fifteen out of
thirty teams, but I have the Angels ranked twenty seven,
which is bad. So if the Angels can get some
run production, I like them to win the game.
Speaker 1: Here.
Speaker 4: If you look at Corbin how he has performed against
the Angels in his career, He's got eighty five at
bats against. They have crushed him three point fifty three
average against in at eight sixty six ops. So I
mean I crush I don't know if they crushed him.
They've hit him pretty good. The guys that are doing
the damage though, are not Trout and the guys you expect.
It's Travis, Darnaud, Darnald and Ward and I'll hope, yeah,
I hope as four for two. So these kind of guys,
if they can get their bets going in this game,
I like the Angels. If they can't, I don't like anything,
because there's no way I would put money on Texas
with Corbyn on the mound right now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I still had my fangrafts Sword w RC plus
against left handed pitching and neither of these teams sit
lefties particularly well. I think that's a point I guess
to be made here both. You know, if you kind
of like look at the important categories against left handed pitching,
I would say both sort of hover around that bottom
third of the league, right around twenty for both of
those teams. So you know, that to me kind of
leans me toward I don't have had a lot of
Total's opinions here, That to me leans me toward an
another under, especially if you can find a nine. I
don't know if there's many nines out there, but I
do see I see some eight even moneies, which which
leads me to believe there's probably some nine minus one
twenties out there somewhere.
Speaker 1: I think if you could get a nine and under
is a reasonable look here. I would again.
Speaker 2: You know, the Rangers, I kind of agree with Brian,
like the it's pretty obvious that they're not a playoff team.
And I go back to some of the comments that
Kevin Polar made before he retired, how it's just seems
like a disconnected clubhouse. But those are not really things
you want to hear when you're talking about a team
maybe battling their way back into a postseason race. It
just the vibes are not high, in my opinion, in
Texas right now, and they're looking for someone to put
them out of their misery. Maybe that someone is the Angels,
who you know, to your point, Tokyo Brandon, I feel
like the Angels have been out since April first. I mean,
this team is not I didn't think they were. I
thought they were one of the worst teams in the
league this year, and they continue to go out there
with you know, with no bullpen and lesser pitchers, and
they just scratch and claw. I actually think, you know,
sixty two and sixty nine for them right now is
like a very respectable season, you know, even though they're
not gonna make the playoffs either. They they've battled every
step of the way and another great effort last night
to win.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 2: So I don't know that I necessarily want to bet
against them either. I think if I had to play
this one, I'd look for that nine flat and go under,
because you know, I talked about the Rangers bullpen, even
though they don't really have the big time leverage. Guys
that are like, you know, the the eighth.
Speaker 1: Ninth inning guys. The bullpen as a whole.
Speaker 2: Has been very strong this year for the Rangers, and
pitching has been very strong. So you get one of
Corbyn's good days where he goes five to six, gives
up two or three.
Speaker 1: The Rangers will be in this game. But more importantly,
I think you'll have yourself a pretty good chance to
hit an under nine. So I'll look to under nine there.
All right, I'm gonna say before he has to go, Yeah,
I mean we started late, so we're still gonna give
you the full. We've got about seventeen minutes left, so
I think probably two more games. Do you eat it to, Brian?
Do you want to propose a game to talk about
here that you're looking.
Speaker 3: I want to take a look at this Boston Baltimore game.
Current line right here, we've got Gieledo going for Boston,
Kyle Bradish finally back for Baltimore. Let's hope he doesn't
get hurt again before the season ends, because when he does,
when he's pitching, he's been excellent. But we've got basically
to pick him situation right now, and I think Baltimore
should probably be favored because of the picture of a
Bradish I really like him, but it is his first
start coming off of the Yeah, well that's always a concern.
But we're looking at what I'm going to use here
for my parlay is the first half of this game,
because I wanted the matchup of Bradish against Giolito Geolito
on the season. Coming in. He has a three three
point seven two ERA and a one point two seven
whip whips a little high, but the RA looks good
until you look at his expected the IRA five point
two one one and a half runs higher than what
it is expected the IRA is, and keep in mind
or his ERA is, and keep in mind last year
he didn't pitch, but in the last two years prior
to that four point eighty eighty RA four point nine
zero ERA, and that was with one hundred and eighty
four and one hundred and sixty one in, he's pitched.
Gilido is not a guy I'm looking to back his extension.
It's good at seventy six percentile, but everything else is
in blue on the stackcast page, especially week in certain areas,
the with rates not good twenty seven percentile, barrel rate
twenty fifth, round ball twenty six, so he gives up
fly balls and this is a park that Baltimore has
brought the fences in a little bit. I think he's
going to struggle here. And cal Bradish last two years
in twenty three he had because one hundred sixty eight innings,
had a two point eight three ERA one point oh
four whip last year and only thirty nine innings because
of injury two point seventy five ERA one point oh
seven whip. This is a guy that is the ace
of this Baltimore staff. If he is pitching Gunner Henderson
when he comes back next year, he's going to be
very good as well. But this guy Kyle Bradish, when
he's healthy, he's been very good. And we'll set to
see how it works out for this one. But I
want no part of Giolito. The reason I'm making to
you in the first five is because the Baltimore bullpen
isn't shambles right now, and the Boston bullpen is looking
pretty good. So let's just make it the first five.
Let's play Baltimore first five minus one ten with Bratish
over Geeledo.
Speaker 4: Okay, I'll be straight up with you, guys. I have
zero read on this game because Giorlito's numbers are just
all all over the place. I got him ranked below
average on his expected and current form, but his last
few starts he's been pretty good. But the thing is,
he's all over the place. I mean, he gives up one,
then he gives up four, then he gives up one again,
then he gives up three. I mean, I don't know
what to expect from him, And with Bradish making his
first start, I really don't know what to expect from
him either. The main thing I can contribute to actionable
information here would be to agree with Brian that Boston's
bullpen is really solid right now and the Oriols bullpen
is not. Both teams are hitting pretty mediocre at the moment.
That's really the only input I can give on this one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was just checking it.
Speaker 2: Look it looks like the Orioles are taking some money
right now, and I agree with that.
Speaker 1: They may get they may get my money as well.
Speaker 2: This is this is when I kind of had, you know,
circle three or four games today that I'm get to
the window with. I would say, as the show goes
on and the morning goes on, I'm starting to get
more confident in this one.
Speaker 1: And then of course Brian.
Speaker 2: I love that you brought it up and that you
you know, you seem to like the Orioles, because that's
the way I was looking as well. Talk about Kyle
Bradish for a minute. You know, he's been at So
when guys are out for like a long period of time,
typically they get a long rehab at you know, in
the miners, right, And that's so so Bradish missed the
entire first half of the season, so his rehab has
actually gone on for six weeks at this point or more,
like you know, he he he made his first competitive
outing on July twenty fourth at High A. And so
what I've noticed trying to evaluate guys that have these
long rehabs at the miners, you can kind of tell
when it goes there's a there's typically a shift when
it's like, hey, just go throw the ball over the plate,
throw some strikes. Don't worry about trying to get batters out.
Just literally go throw strikes and we'll see what happens
to all right, we're getting closer, Like now go like
see if see if you can get out, and we'll
have a competitive outing. And so for him, I would
say that that was the last two we're almost like
what I'll call the dress rehearsal type starts for him.
Against Jacksonville he was very very good. Five scoreless, nine strikeouts,
two walks. I watched the Charlotte game last week, thought
he threw it fine four and two thirds. He did
give up a couple of hits a couple of runs,
still had three strikeouts.
Speaker 1: The command was pretty good.
Speaker 2: So this is a scenario where I think I'm okay
backing him here, just because it's not like where I
don't like betting guys off of rehab or off of
minor league appearances. Is when like they were hurt mid season,
they come back, they make like one start at Triple A,
and it's like, yeah, throw me back out there.
Speaker 1: That tends to be a little bit shaky.
Speaker 2: This is like he had a spring probably when when
you know his spring was probably most of July. Then
he's had six starts at the miners, like this is
almost like opening day for Bradish. So I feel like
I'm treating him more like like what I would expect
out of him on opening day. Uh So I'm fine
with backing him. As far as Gilio's concerned. I think
I've said it on the show a couple of times.
I mean, the fact that he's been able to do
what he's done since about June first has been very impressive.
That being said, I think we're starting to see like
the come down a little bit, like he had that
unreal run into the All Star break and he's still
been okay, but he hasn't been quite as sharp. And
then if you go back to the beginning of the
season that was the bad gelato that that could get
blown up. I still think that guy is in there somewhere,
especially against the uh, you know, the Orioles, who I'll
say this, I think I've said this probably five times
in the past week, where you want to bet the
Orioles when they're a at home and when they're b
against up against the right handed pitcher, right handed pitcher,
they hit right he's better and they hit better at home,
and you're kind of getting that combination here. So Brian,
I do trust Bradish and I think I'm okay with
the Orioles bullpen and the way it's set up to
go full game. I'm not saying that you're not right
to target first five as well, but I do like
the Orioles here and that may be a client bet
for me. Were you putting this in the parlay right here?
Speaker 3: This will be my parlay and yeah, it's it's a
situation where I just think the Baltemore kept him down
because they've been on the playoffs for such a long time.
They had that ability, there was no need to rush him.
But now they want to see what he can do.
He's give him a couple of months here and hopefully
stays healthy, and then they'll slot in as a one
or two next year for the Orioles.
Speaker 1: That's a great point.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean six six starts at the minor league level,
plus he likely had a spring in July and into
the All Star break.
Speaker 1: Like they've given him more than enough time. I think
you're gonna get like.
Speaker 2: A pretty state endered start from him here, Brian, what's
the odds on that first five bet?
Speaker 3: Minus one? Ten?
Speaker 1: All right?
Speaker 2: All right, so we've got two legs of the parlay
locked in so far. Tokyo, Brandon, have we talked about
your leg or do you want to throw a game
out there for us to We have not.
Speaker 4: But it's not worth covering because I'm gonna cheat and
take the Astros's.
Speaker 2: All right, it is absolutely worth covering. Hey, we were
no we're gonna cover this game. It's we're gonna cover
this game. Because pretty much anytime we've brought up the
Rockies as like a massive dog, I feel like we've
given out pretty solid intel.
Speaker 1: I think we do.
Speaker 2: Particularly like, even if you go back, there was a
series where earlier this year where they played I think
was the Phillies, and we hit like every game, and
we were like, just bet the over, like and I
think Phillies and like, you could have laddered it and
it would have won. Last week, I thought we did
a great job breaking that Rockies Dodgers series down. So
let's let's give it the full rub right here. We'll
go to Brian Leonard. Uh, this is Rockies on the
Road at Houston tonight. If I remember correctly, these two
teams actually played in Denver earlier this year, and for
the most part, the Astros racked up a whole bunch
of hits in that series. I think they may have
lost one of the games, but if I remember off
of memory, they had no problem hitting Rockies pitching, and
you know they're gonna probably hit Tanner Gordon, who I
think sort of who deed hit like an unbelievable start
last time, Like, I think he threw a pretty good
start against the Dodgers, something you're not going to see
very often from Tanner Gordon at the big league level.
So Hunter Brown Tanner Gordon, any way to go in
this one other than try to find a way to
play the Astros here.
Speaker 3: Brian, I don't get involved games this high as currently
three forty the total is eight, so slightly to the
under here. Yeah, the road Rockies, you know, what are
they know, sixteen to forty nine on the season, so
they lose three out of four on the road, which
would be what a So, yeah, there may still be
value on Houston because of that. That problem is Houston offense.
If you take a look at w WRC plus over
the last fourteen days, there was sixty two. That was
my only concern as they're not hitting right now. I
did start started coming out of it for the last
few days, but I won't get there, but I will
root for it. Hopefully it does better than a two
dollars favorite we had yesterday.
Speaker 1: But yeah, that was unbelievable.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we didn't have much luck at the end of
that one. But yeah, let's let's go with it. I
have nothing to add.
Speaker 4: Before everyone calls me, you know, chicken tured for taking this. Look,
this is a three leg parlay and we haven't won
one in a while, so I am going to cheat
and take this. I know it's minus three forty blah blah,
go ahead, money's money. I want to win that parlay.
Speaker 1: Is it really up to that? Is that really what
it is?
Speaker 3: Brian?
Speaker 1: Do you have a money line?
Speaker 4: Now?
Speaker 3: Yeah, the best number out there is three twenty four
at circa. Uh, but you're laying you know, the draft
game spandal, you're laying three sixty or whatever.
Speaker 4: So yeah, three, Sorry, but we need to win one
of these Tokyo, Brandon, talk to me about the team
total lot.
Speaker 1: You know Astro's team total. I know they're home and
you and you know you.
Speaker 2: You got to assume you're going to have to do
it in eight at bats four and a half on
a team total seems a little bit low to me.
Eating in that minus won thirty five juice. I almost
think you could bet that.
Speaker 1: What do you think?
Speaker 4: Yeah? You could. And the reason I like this is because, yeah, Gordon,
his last two starts, he's He's only giving up four
run in his last two starts, but those were at
home on the road. In his last two starts, he's
given up sixteen earned runs in his last two eight
earned runs per game in his last two on the road.
That's bad. His road er is thirteen and you know,
a granted it's a small sample size the twelve innings,
but I think the Astros bats will wake up here
and Colorado's just a terrible road team. Look, Hunter Brown
has been in my top ten pitching or top twenty
pitching ranking all season long. He's a solid pitcher, and
I don't think although I actually do like the scrappiness
of the Colorado Rockies, and they do have some good
young players and some good veterans like Moniac, but I
just think, you know, bullpen hitting pitcher. I just think
the Astros are too much and Rockies just don't win
on the road. So Astros it is. Yes, I'm a chicken.
Speaker 1: I would like if you don't.
Speaker 2: You know, obviously it's fine for the par Like you know,
I don't think anyone's going to bet a three dollars
favorite straight up, But I don't dislike the thought that
maybe this is where the Astros break out a little bit.
Tanner Gordon, I've talked about a couple of times this
year near the bottom of my rankings for triple A.
So the fact that he is sort of, you know,
the fact that he has done what he's done in
his last couple of starts, I suppose it's impressive. The
start against the Dodgers, I think, if I remember correctly,
he drew the Dodgers in a spot where they couldn't
have been less interested to be playing a baseball game.
Speaker 1: I think they like.
Speaker 2: Got blown out in that game and he kind of
like coasted one run on six what six innings, one run,
four hits, like that was a very unfocused Dodgers team
in that game.
Speaker 1: But I'm not going to take away like it's still
not easy to do.
Speaker 2: But the Astros, I do think, are going to be
far more focused than La was in that game. And
you know what better for for an offenses has been struggling.
What better chance to take advantage of, you know, to
try to maybe run it up a little bit and
get your mojo back than the Rockies, right And Tanner Gordon,
if they can get to him early and they can
put a crooked number up there early.
Speaker 1: They're gonna have.
Speaker 2: No problem getting to five runs in this game. Not
my usual style, but I really think there's gonna be
some offense for Houston here.
Speaker 1: Sorry, Brian, were you gonna add something there?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've got run. We've got off to a late
start here today. So just can then can we go
over the price of the parlay run out? Yep?
Speaker 1: That's that is.
Speaker 2: We are at the hour mark, so we are gonna
wrap it up three team or today we have three side. Well,
we have a first five and two full games Tokyo.
Brandon's going with the Astros. We have the Podres for me.
What's the number on the Padres is that is that.
Speaker 3: Plus Baltimore's minus one ten first half?
Speaker 2: All right, so we have and that minus one ten
is a first five bet. So we have memorials for
Brian Leonard first five minus one ten. I'll be on
the Padres money line, Tokyo brand Tokyo Brandon on the Astros,
and that three team or is plus four so Orioles
first five Padres money line, Astros money line. It's a
three teamer plus three ninety four.
Speaker 1: We will hopefully be back live tomorrow morning at the
usual time nine am Eastern. Sorry about the technical difficulties today.
Speaker 2: Appreciate you tuning in on demand five dollars Tuesday at
wager Talk, everyone's got to play.
Speaker 1: Up four five dollars and we will see you guys tomorrow.
Have a good day.