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Speaker 1: All right, welcome in.

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Speaker 2: It is Tuesday, it's time for Total Bases and you're

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all watching this on demand. We had a little issue

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with our video stream on the live, so we're just

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gonna record this. This will well, you should be seeing

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this mid morning as it gets up to the wager

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Talk YouTube channel. So yeah, we're gonna just show's not

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gonna change. We're gonna get right into it.

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Speaker 1: And I did tweet out, so I'll be looking at

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Twitter for questions. But Brian Leonard, I'm.

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Speaker 2: Gonna start with this game because I think we all

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saw it similar last night and it did not go

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the way anyone planned. And that's Red's Dodgers. Red's laid

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an egg last night, seven nothing lost. I think we

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all thought that they were maybe a little bit of

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value in that spot. I thought the over was in

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play and I got seven runs there from the Dodgers.

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Yet the Reds contributed nothing. Not the only team we

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sort of saw fall flat in a spot where where

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they needed a win. Now they come back another big

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game tonight. It looks like Kershaw Versusnick Martinez. Can the

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Reds bounce back here?

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Speaker 3: Well, we've talked about teams that need to win, and

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if you need to win, that means you're not that good.

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And that's the problem with Cincinnati. I love the team,

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being from Cleveland, that's the team I root for the

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National League. I'm in Pittsburgh, but they're falling fast and

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it doesn't help that they're on the road against the Dodgers.

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Kershaw going against Martinez today, Kershaw is a basically about

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a one to eighty favorite right now, a total of nine.

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If you're taking a look at offense, as in the

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last two weeks, Cincinnati has been poor. Are there at

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eighty four w RC plus, which is twenty fourth in

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the league. The Dodgers number nine at one o nine.

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Neither team really hitting great, especially Cincinnati. They're struggling a

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little bit. But that's the way I'm looking at this one.

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And as you've got Nick Martinez four point five to

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nine ERA four point one zero expected one point two

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a whip, he's deserved a little bit better than what

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his numbers have been this year. His career numbers after

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eight seasons four point one seven, and what he's gotten

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hit this year, he's gotten hit hard. So he's one

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of those guys that is very similar to a lot

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of the players out there in Major League Baseball, Well,

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one day they look great, the next day they look terrible.

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And his stech show SEC has paid shows that really

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his walk rate eighty seven percent tell heard hit rate

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eighty fifth are both impressive. He only walks five point

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seven percent, but his chase rate, his whiff rate, and

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his extension are all in bottom ten. That is what

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is heard in this year. Clayton Kershaw. My hat's off

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to him. I thought he was done last year. Comes

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in with an eight and two record, three point one

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three ERA, three point nine to six expected, one point

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two a whip and his is very similar. Where what

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he's good at, he's very good. He is barrel right

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ninety fourth percentile, ground ball right eighty sixth walk great

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eighty second. But he's got no fastball at all. He's

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in the second percentile of fastball velocity six percent of strikeouts.

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Throws the four pitches, but it's for seeing you only

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throws thirty five percent of the time because it's only

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eighty nine miles an hour, which is four miles an

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hour less than an average left handed pitcher. I prefer

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the Dodgers here, but I'm not going to lay that number,

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maybe find a way to play. Maybe the Cincinnati team

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total under, but there's plenty of games on the board today.

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That's just my first thoughts on this one.

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Speaker 4: So everyone, it's five dollars Tuesday at wager Talk and

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we are all going to have a five dollars playout.

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Minds up already free plays up as well. So go

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to wager talk dot com and see what these three

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marvelous kappers have offer today regarding this game. Yeah, pretty

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surprise to see the Dodgers shut down the Reds like that,

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But the Dodgers are hitting better than the Reds. I

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have the Reds in current form ranked twenty two, where

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I have the Dodgers ranked eleven in hitting. The bullpen

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is heavily in the reds favor though, And I got

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these two pictures ranked neck and neck. I know Nick

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Martinez is not as good of a picture as Clayton Kershaw,

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but Clayton Kershaw is on the end of the tail

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end of his career. But as far as expected numbers

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and how they've been performing in current form, I have

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them neck and neck. I mean no difference. Nick Martinez

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actually has pretty good numbers against these Dodgers batters in

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his history in eighty four at bats. But a lot

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of those numbers might have been compiled before he went

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to Japan and came back, So I don't know how

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much credence we can put in those numbers. This looks

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deadlocks to me. If anything, I think the Dodgers or

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the Reds might come back today. Clayton Kershaw is doing

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his rejuvenation act. He's he's gotten young again. Hopefully this

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isn't old Clayton Kershaw, who's great in the regular season

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and stinks in the postseason. Maybe he can get some

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some wins in the postseason as well this year. We'll

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we'll see about that. But regarding today's game, too close

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to call for me.

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Speaker 2: I think I'd run it right back with the over here.

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I see there are signs of regression for both starting pitchers.

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Reminds me a little bit of our conversation on on

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Mets Phillies last night, where I thought, you know, I

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couldn't quite get there with the Mets because I thought,

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you know, maybe there was regression science for both starting pitchers,

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and we saw a bunch of runs in that game.

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Speaker 1: Kind of the same way I feel about this game.

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I'd love to find a way to play the Reds.

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Speaker 2: I think if that, if Kershaw and the Dodgers were

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to continue to take money and suddenly I could get

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Reds plus one and a half in like the minus

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one twenty range, I might be like inclined to jump

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in with the Reds. But if not, then the way

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it would have to look at this one would be

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the over. You're getting the nine flat, which is appealing,

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of course, if you know, nine is much much more

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appealing from an over standpoint than nine and a half.

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If both teams get to four, you're you're you're not

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gonna lose. So that's, you know, certainly something. It's a number.

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If I'm looking to play an over, you kind of

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like to find eight and a half or nine if

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you can. I feel like that's kind of the sweet

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spot for overs. And you're getting that here. And then,

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just you know, off of a lot of what you

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guys have said, Uh, neither neither Pitcher striking anyone out,

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not a ton of swing and miss out at either side.

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Dodgers off and showed up last night put up seven

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runs off Hunter Green. I can't believe that, you know,

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with the total of eight. I can't believe we couldn't

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get one single run from the Reds. So it's like,

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you know, I think that the concern going into last

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night's game was where the Dodger is gonna come out flat,

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and they they certainly didn't. It was an easy win

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for them, you know, even even with it maybe extra

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day of rest. The Reds bullpen is not some you know,

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it has not been great this year, and we've kind

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of talked about the Dodgers at times struggling in that

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department as well. I think for more of how they

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had the bullpen set up standpoint, but still they've shown the.

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Speaker 1: Ability to give up runs. So Reds plus one and

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a half.

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Speaker 2: It came back in the range. But the over I

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think has some value here, like even at nine. I

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think that may have moved. I think it was eight

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and a half and kind of quickly moved up to nine.

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I still see some value at the over of nine

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in this game. So that's the way I would lean

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in this one. All right, let's head, I'm gonna head

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over to Twitter. I don't I don't even know if

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people have seen the tweet yet, which is fine.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure they come to the to the YouTube channel.

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I was.

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Speaker 2: I was just looking over there for questions comments, because

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we still we still want to try to run off

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the chat if we can. But since no one's asked

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for a specific game, let's go to Let's go.

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Speaker 1: To Brian Leonard. You were right about the Guardians last night.

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Speaker 2: That was And how about Ian Seymour finally gets his

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first career start, pays it off as I thought he might,

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no doubt or for you on the Rays. Now he

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got another young guy that I thought pitched considerably well

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last week, even though the Guardians choked the game away

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for me at the end, and that was Parker Messick.

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Speaker 1: Now, I think if you watched the start.

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Speaker 2: He maybe was a little bit fortunate, you know, with

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a couple of base running mistakes from the Diamondbacks in

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that game, and he did sort of, you know, kind

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of pitch his way out of a couple of jams.

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So now it's gonna be Messi's second big league start,

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but his first one in front of the home fans.

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Do you have any faith in your Guardian's here? Just

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the losing continue for Cleveland?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? Boy. That makes the ten games in which they've

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the most they scored was five runs. That was once.

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I believe he scored four runs once. Every other one

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has been worse, was shut out four or five times.

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The Cleveland Bats, we've talked about it all season that

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they're not very good and it's really showing up now

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that they're not going to be able to make the playoffs.

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It's time to bring up the young guys, and I

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hope Cleveland does that get some of these guys out

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of there that is not going to be a future

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for the Guardians. Boz going against Messic. Messic is about

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a one to fifteen favorite right now, total of eight

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to the under or seven and a half to the over.

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From my standpoint, when I look at this Parker Messick,

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as you pointed out, he was a little bit lucky.

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He had a one point three five ERA one point

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two a whip, but was expected. The IRA was four

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point three three. That said, if you've followed my handicapping

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over the years, you know I love these unknown lefties

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that teams bring up, and this is the year of

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the lefty. It's been the big talk. I've talked about

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this all year long. The lefties are the team or

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the guys that are having success, and so there's been

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value on lefties, but now everybody knows about it, so

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you're not going to find it like you did earlier

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in the season. But I love lefties, and they're facing

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somebody who hasn't seen him before, and that's the Rays here,

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So I expect messing or mess excuse me, to have

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a good pitching game. Shane Baz going for Tampa. It's

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got the eight and ten record, five point two two ERA,

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but he hasn't hitting a luck all season long is expected.

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The RA is only three point nine to three. His

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whip's a little high at one point three seven. He's

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got a great fastball eighty seventh percentile, ground ball rate

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seventy fifth percentile. The only thing he struggles with is

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the barrel rate only in the fifteenth percentile. But he's

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facing the team right now. It's not burrowing anything up

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from one from you know, they got two hitches straight

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from from one to nine. This Cleveland team is nobody

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on this team that is really hitting well. They've had

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guys go on mini streaks, but for the most part,

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they are not hitting at all. So if I'm looking

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at this game, I think both offense is going to

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continue to struggle. I would either look for the under

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or I would look for a way to play maybe

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Tampa Bay under a little for a team total, because

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I think the lefty MESSI is going to have some success.

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And the good thing is for Cleveland stand points is

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they're not scoring, they're not winning, so all their best

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bullpen arms are going to be available.

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Speaker 4: The Guardians are not a team I want to be

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backing right now, but I will here. Here's a statistic

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for you. Boz has given up thirty earned run in

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his last twenty eight innings pitch. That's not good. His

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saving grace is that he pitches better on the road

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than at home. But I think if the Guardians are

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going to win a game, which look baseball underdogs have

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every shot to win. Even the worst of the worst,

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excluding the Colorado Rockies, can win thirty to thirty forty

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percent of their games. Cleveland's gonna win a game here eventually,

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and I think this will be it. If they're going

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to I don't I said in yesterday's show that I

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don't put a lot of credence on lefty versus ritings,

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but in this situation, I do, because it's a new

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picture that the Rays haven't seen, and so in this case,

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I think the lefty righty thing is very relevant because

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it's a picture they haven't seen before, and he's a

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00:12:27,759 --> 00:12:32,320
new guy in MLB. The Rays right now are hitting

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sixty and the Guardians are right now are hitting thirty.

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So it's really hard to put faith in a team

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that's hitting that badly right now. But I just think

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either the Guardians team total over or Guardians win here

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would be the player. I haven't played it yet, just

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because their batting is just so bad. But bad has

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given up thirty runs in his last twenty eight innings.

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You can't expect him to have a good game here,

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even against this offense. So if I were to bet it,

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that's how I would go, But I haven't done it yet.

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Speaker 1: I didn't, you know, pick these games.

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Speaker 2: The two games that I've picked so far just happened

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to be probably my two strongest totals opinions of the day.

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So we talked about an over and Reds Dodgers. I

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would go under here. I don't like either of these lineups.

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The Rays don't really hit either. Last night's deceiving fourteen hits,

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nine runs on fourteen hits, but Bibby didn't have much,

255
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and then they kind of tacked on against the back

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end of the Guardian's bullpen. You should see much better

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from the Guardians here from a pitching standpoint, even if

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even with Messik maybe being a little bit fortunate to only.

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Speaker 1: Give up what he gave up.

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Speaker 2: I think the one run against the Diamondbacks, I still

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thought he threw it well challenged hitters. And let's be honest,

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the Rays lineup is not even in close to the

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caliber of an offensive unit that the Diamondbacks. Even with

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the Diamondbacks struggles, I think that goes unnoticed at times.

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Still a very good lineup, even without Josh Naylor and

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Eugenius Words. It's still a quality, quality lineup, and there's

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tough at bats one through nine. Brian made a good

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point last week about the team speed of that Diamondbacks team,

269
00:14:12,399 --> 00:14:14,759
the base running. The Rays have a little of that,

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but they don't they don't pack nearly the punch that

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Arizona does, and so I think this is actually a

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00:14:19,679 --> 00:14:21,919
far more favorable setup for Messic.

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Speaker 1: He's at home.

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Speaker 2: I know he's probably never pitched at progressive field, but

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00:14:26,559 --> 00:14:28,799
you know, Columbus is down the road, and it's like

276
00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:32,120
it's still a better pitching setup than having to pitch

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at a Chase Field, which is is very hit or

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friendly ballpark, and the Rays have probably very you know,

279
00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:40,799
these guys have probably seen him limited. I'm sure there's

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00:14:40,799 --> 00:14:44,600
some familiarity Columbus and Durham do play, but they probably

281
00:14:44,679 --> 00:14:47,519
haven't seen a ton of him. On the other side, Chambas,

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he's my guy. I've talked about it a number of

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times on this show. I've always been probably higher than

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00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:55,440
the market on him, and I'm still higher than the

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market on him, especially when I think you guys kind

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00:14:58,679 --> 00:15:02,240
of both pointed out expected Era A numbers. You know,

287
00:15:02,279 --> 00:15:04,840
he's been a little bit unlucky, and that's a profile

288
00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:08,559
that I kind of like to try to back if

289
00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:10,840
I like a guy and they've been unlucky, and it

290
00:15:10,879 --> 00:15:13,799
looks like someplay a spot they can have success, and

291
00:15:13,879 --> 00:15:17,279
who's not having success against this Guardian's lineup right now?

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Speaker 1: So I'll call this one under. I think it's seven

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and a half.

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Speaker 2: I think you know, it's another strong strong totals look

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on the board today. All right, we have so a

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couple of things before we go on to the next game.

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If since everyone's gonna be watching the show on demand

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today because the live link was what sort of broke down,

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drop your comments and questions below. I know myself, I'll

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make sure I spend extra time in the comment section today,

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So if you've got a comment or a question, drop

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00:15:50,679 --> 00:15:53,399
it below the the YouTube replay and one of the

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00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:56,799
three of us will get in and answer your questions comments,

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because you know that that is the basis of this

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show is interaction with the chat, and we don't have

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you guys today.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna spend extra time in the comments section.

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Speaker 2: So so again you're gonna be watching this on YouTube

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before you hit the comments section, though, like and subscribe

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if you haven't already.

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Speaker 1: It helps the show tremendously. Guys.

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Speaker 2: We have some comments rolling in on Twitter right now,

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so let's go to Colin Gregory wants to talk Padres Mariners.

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This was when we got right from the show yesterday.

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00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:29,039
I saw some chat. I mean I I played the

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00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:31,879
Royals yesterday, so clearly not a good day for me.

317
00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:34,720
That game was over before it even started. But one

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we kind of all got right yesterday was the Mariners

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came out.

320
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Speaker 4: You guys got it right?

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00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:43,759
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, I remember someone like the Mariners.

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00:16:43,759 --> 00:16:46,840
Speaker 2: Maybe it was Brian, but I I know I like

323
00:16:46,879 --> 00:16:48,240
the Mariners yesterday as well.

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00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:52,279
Speaker 1: It got there in the end, you know, big series here.

325
00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:54,720
Speaker 2: I still think both of these teams have a lot

326
00:16:54,759 --> 00:16:58,879
to play for in their respective leagues. Obviously, both in

327
00:16:59,159 --> 00:17:03,360
really still kind of hot battles for the division right now.

328
00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:07,720
Tonight it's going to be Dylan Cees and we got

329
00:17:07,799 --> 00:17:11,039
Luis Castillo on the mound for the Mariners. Right, will

330
00:17:11,039 --> 00:17:12,559
you go the other way here? Do you think the

331
00:17:12,559 --> 00:17:14,240
Padres even this series up today?

332
00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:18,079
Speaker 3: Yeah? Yesterday it was a dream day for not only

333
00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:20,279
myself and my clients, but anybody who watched the show,

334
00:17:20,319 --> 00:17:23,920
because it's one of those days where everything, basically everything

335
00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:27,880
I had worked out well. I was Detroit was a

336
00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:31,240
popular play and I and money was coming in against him.

337
00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:34,240
I've seen that many times. And of course they leave

338
00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:37,920
with the school bl schoolball. Uh pitches another really good

339
00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:41,599
game and Athletics come back late ruined our parlay. Actually

340
00:17:41,599 --> 00:17:44,720
I thought we had a winner there. Uh, but yeah,

341
00:17:44,839 --> 00:17:47,440
it's it's hopefully I can be half as good today

342
00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:55,640
as I was yesterday. We are looking at what game

343
00:17:55,759 --> 00:17:59,640
what game were Okay, Sorry, I started talking about Detroit

344
00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:03,279
and I thought going there. Cecia Castillo. Castillo is about

345
00:18:03,319 --> 00:18:05,640
a one to fifteenth Pavoit right now, total of seven

346
00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:08,079
and a half to the over, eight to the under

347
00:18:08,839 --> 00:18:10,640
or even. He can get even money at the eight.

348
00:18:12,599 --> 00:18:16,599
I like Seattle yesterday, and I like Dylan Ceas, but

349
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:21,000
he has not really had a good season. He's had

350
00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:23,200
terrible luck all year long. Comes into the four point

351
00:18:23,279 --> 00:18:25,720
seven to one ERA three point five to two expected.

352
00:18:26,279 --> 00:18:28,799
Talked about that yesterday to be you know, basically one

353
00:18:28,799 --> 00:18:32,599
point two or one point two runs higher than what

354
00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:36,039
you expecting. The aria is he's had very very bad luck.

355
00:18:36,799 --> 00:18:40,400
His whips won thirty two and his statues pay shows

356
00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:45,920
that all of his metrics look really impressive for the

357
00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:49,480
most part, with rate ninety fifth percent, strike out r

358
00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:52,759
eight ninetieth. But he's had a problem with walks, and

359
00:18:53,039 --> 00:18:56,680
that's something that he's walked in his career. He's got

360
00:18:56,680 --> 00:18:58,880
a ten point zero walk rate, which is about one

361
00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:01,359
point six better than league average, should be worse than

362
00:19:01,359 --> 00:19:04,599
the average hiredly gamers, but his walk rates twenty fourth

363
00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:07,480
percentile barrel rate twenty first in Green Bay or Green

364
00:19:07,519 --> 00:19:14,000
Bay ball rates football season round ball rate twenty second percentile.

365
00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:18,359
So he's a guy that I continue to find value on,

366
00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:23,039
but that expected value just hasn't come back and gotten them.

367
00:19:23,759 --> 00:19:28,119
And then Luis Crews three point for Castillo three point

368
00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:32,640
five seventy right four point thirty nine expected. So just

369
00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:35,880
by looking at that, your normal wise guys be going

370
00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:39,519
to be looking at San Diego in this game. I

371
00:19:39,559 --> 00:19:42,319
guess I'm kind of looking the same way. I don't

372
00:19:42,319 --> 00:19:45,279
know if I'm gonna get there. But Castillo's extensions in

373
00:19:45,319 --> 00:19:48,920
the first percentile hard hit rate, the seventh barrel fourteenth

374
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:51,960
thanks of velocity fifteenth. The only thing he does really

375
00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:54,880
well is he keeps down on the walks six point

376
00:19:54,880 --> 00:20:00,119
five percent for the second year in a row. I've

377
00:20:00,079 --> 00:20:03,799
been looking for good spots to go against Seattle and

378
00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:07,200
at Castill. This may be the best one out there.

379
00:20:08,279 --> 00:20:11,319
So you're getting San Diego, who ceases them at least

380
00:20:11,319 --> 00:20:14,240
to me, the much better pitcher, and you're getting them.

381
00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:16,240
But the only problem, you're only getting them at plus

382
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:18,559
one hundred plus one oh five. I don't know that's

383
00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:21,920
enough because Seattle is so good at home. So may

384
00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:24,319
try to find a way of betting Seattle team total

385
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:27,079
under something to that effect. But that's the way I

386
00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:28,440
would look at this one at this point.

387
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:33,519
Speaker 4: Five dollars Tuesday, guys, So all day on wager talk

388
00:20:33,559 --> 00:20:37,440
dot com, you can get our best plays for five dollars.

389
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:40,720
So go to wages talk dot com. Minds up already.

390
00:20:40,759 --> 00:20:42,960
I have a free playout as well, and these two

391
00:20:43,039 --> 00:20:47,880
guys certainly will have something out if they don't already. Yeah,

392
00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:50,720
I was the one who liked the Padres yesterday. Actually

393
00:20:50,759 --> 00:20:55,119
I was off on almost everything yesterday. I liked the Nationals,

394
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:59,920
they got crushed. I like the Padres crushed. Who else

395
00:21:00,079 --> 00:21:02,079
that I liked that got crushed? There were two other

396
00:21:02,079 --> 00:21:05,880
teams that I liked that got crushed. So everything was

397
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:09,279
off yesterday. But you know, I'm gonna bet baseball almost

398
00:21:09,319 --> 00:21:11,599
three hundred days this year, so I can deal with

399
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:14,880
one bad day. I lost two bets which were two

400
00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:19,640
percent each, so yeah, I can deal with that number

401
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:22,720
one in twenty twenty five, so I can deal with that.

402
00:21:23,039 --> 00:21:26,720
Regarding this one, my numbers line up again in favor

403
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:29,200
of the Padres. But I have two big red flags.

404
00:21:30,039 --> 00:21:33,480
The first red flag is cease against these batters has

405
00:21:33,519 --> 00:21:37,079
a pretty bad history. To sixty eight average against in

406
00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:39,839
an eight forty three OPS. I don't like that very much.

407
00:21:40,319 --> 00:21:43,880
Castillo's numbers against the padre is not much better, to

408
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:47,039
eighty average against and seven oh seven ops. His ops

409
00:21:47,079 --> 00:21:49,519
is okay, but the average is a little too high.

410
00:21:49,519 --> 00:21:52,599
It means they're they're hitting a lot on him, but

411
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,319
not scoring a lot, not a lot of long balls.

412
00:21:55,319 --> 00:21:57,240
They're hitting a bunch of singles and he's getting away

413
00:21:57,240 --> 00:22:01,440
with it. So these are pretty big samples too, So

414
00:22:01,519 --> 00:22:04,759
that would make me say, oh, let's look at the over. However,

415
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:08,920
San Diego's bullpen just on fire. You wouldn't think that

416
00:22:09,039 --> 00:22:12,440
after watching yesterday. Their bullpen just barfed on all over

417
00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:16,000
the field. Yesterday they were horrible. San Diego had a

418
00:22:16,079 --> 00:22:20,240
four to two lead and their bullpen just scacked it away.

419
00:22:21,279 --> 00:22:25,119
So their bullpen still is better than Seattle's in my opinion.

420
00:22:25,839 --> 00:22:29,440
Seattle really improved their lineup at the trade deadline, though,

421
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:31,880
so they have a lot of dangerous batters from one

422
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:35,960
to nine. But still I have San Diego ranked about

423
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:41,440
seven points higher than Seattle, and I have Cease regarding

424
00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:46,319
his expected numbers and current form three points higher than Castillo.

425
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,720
Not a lot the problem with Cease is Brian mentioned,

426
00:22:49,759 --> 00:22:51,680
is he walks too many guys. I have him as

427
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:54,440
one of my chronic walkers on my chronic walker lists.

428
00:22:54,519 --> 00:22:58,480
So regarding, you know, taking him against this dangerous lineup

429
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:03,319
with his bad history and has he's walking too much,

430
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:05,960
his command is not what it what it should be.

431
00:23:07,319 --> 00:23:09,880
I don't really want to take them today, but I

432
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:12,200
don't want to take Seattle either. If anything, I would

433
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:14,799
look at an over, maybe the Padres team total over

434
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:15,880
perhaps in this one.

435
00:23:17,799 --> 00:23:20,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, I you know, I think this is kind of

436
00:23:20,279 --> 00:23:22,720
a good matchup for ceas. I know he does walk guys,

437
00:23:22,759 --> 00:23:26,880
but the Mariners lineup really does swing for the fences

438
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:29,200
a lot of times. And it's like if you've watched

439
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:32,000
Cease over the last well really this season, but like

440
00:23:32,079 --> 00:23:34,759
since since the second half or since the All Star break,

441
00:23:34,759 --> 00:23:37,640
where I do think he has thrown the ball better

442
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:40,880
in the second half, it's the walks that have killed him.

443
00:23:41,559 --> 00:23:43,799
And then but he's still racking up the strikeouts, so

444
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:46,119
he you know, he's kind of almost been like effectively

445
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:50,079
wild in some scenarios. Now, it wasn't effective against the Dodgers,

446
00:23:50,079 --> 00:23:51,759
of course, that was the game where he had six

447
00:23:51,839 --> 00:23:53,519
walks and couldn't get out of the fourth inning, and

448
00:23:53,559 --> 00:23:56,279
the Dodgers you know, got to him for for like

449
00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:59,480
three or four runs. But in some of these other starts,

450
00:23:59,519 --> 00:24:03,880
like he wiped out the Cardinals five innings, shutout innings,

451
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:09,759
nine strikeouts, five and a third shutout innings against the Nats,

452
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:12,960
you know, ten strikeouts in that one, had a good

453
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:15,440
start against the Red Sox two runs over six innings,

454
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:18,519
seven strikeouts, Still had the couple walks last time out

455
00:24:18,519 --> 00:24:20,799
against the Giants. I felt like, you know, it's a

456
00:24:20,799 --> 00:24:23,119
little bit deceiving that stat line. They had a huge

457
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,720
lead in that game. I don't know that they you know,

458
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,039
they kind of just like he was really strong for

459
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,599
five innings, goes back out there for the six, give

460
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:33,039
us up a couple of runs, but I think it

461
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:35,759
was like eight two at that point. So it was

462
00:24:35,759 --> 00:24:38,160
almost like, all right, we'll just see, if you know what,

463
00:24:38,279 --> 00:24:40,000
We'll just kind of let him go and get his

464
00:24:40,079 --> 00:24:42,440
allotment of pitches in. When he left the game still

465
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:45,039
seven strikeouts in line for the wins. So, you know,

466
00:24:45,079 --> 00:24:46,960
and then you go to this, you know what Brian

467
00:24:47,039 --> 00:24:51,519
was talking about expected dra Is is much you know

468
00:24:52,079 --> 00:24:55,240
lower his expected dra is much lower than his actually

469
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:58,440
ra the batting averages there, he still throws ninety eight.

470
00:25:00,039 --> 00:25:03,039
You would expect Sees to like, you know, kind of

471
00:25:03,039 --> 00:25:04,279
figure it out at some point.

472
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:07,119
Speaker 1: I just feel like and and he's a veteran.

473
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:09,559
Speaker 2: It's not like it's not like we haven't seen Dylan

474
00:25:09,599 --> 00:25:12,960
Sees be really good for long stretches of time. So

475
00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:15,400
I look at him and I think it's in there.

476
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:18,880
And then, you know, talk about the Padres bullpen. This

477
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:21,720
is still an elite relief unit that's actually set up

478
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:24,680
pretty nicely here, whereas the Mariners have used some guys

479
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,599
like there's some bullpen usage on the Mariners side. And

480
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:30,720
the one guy I want no part of this in

481
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:33,680
this rotation really is Luis Castillo. I feel like he's

482
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:35,680
the one sort of most do to get bombed at

483
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:39,240
this point. Of the starters that they have, he probably

484
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,759
has the worst stuff at this point. He doesn't generate

485
00:25:41,759 --> 00:25:43,720
a lot of swing and miss. He's giving up hard

486
00:25:43,799 --> 00:25:46,119
hit all over the place. So I'll actually use the

487
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:48,720
part of Padres for my parlay, like this might make

488
00:25:48,759 --> 00:25:52,039
my client card too. Like Brian said, I think this

489
00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:53,839
is a really good spot for the Padres and this

490
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:56,240
is still a very good baseball team. Not gonna find

491
00:25:56,279 --> 00:26:00,000
the Padres at this sort of price, in my opinion,

492
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,759
very often. So, Brian, what what's the Padres money line

493
00:26:04,799 --> 00:26:05,079
right now?

494
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:10,680
Speaker 3: Yes, currently plus one hundred. The the a lot of

495
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:14,279
the places that are the weaker books as opposed to

496
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:17,680
the Sharper ones. There you're laying a little bit, but

497
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:21,519
the Sharper books there you're getting anywhere from plus one

498
00:26:21,559 --> 00:26:24,759
hundred to plus one oh four, So it evens out

499
00:26:24,799 --> 00:26:25,920
to about a plus one hundred.

500
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say anything in and around that

501
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:30,359
even money range.

502
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 1: I kind of feel like Padres end up in like.

503
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,599
Speaker 2: The minus one oh five minus one ten range at

504
00:26:34,599 --> 00:26:37,359
some point today I think, I think you're gonna see

505
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:41,359
the market gravitate towards the Padres here. So yeah, well

506
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:44,319
we'll take even money there for for Padres, as as

507
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:49,160
my parlay leg Okay, back to Twitter. Ethan Bainbridge, one

508
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:52,720
of our regulars in the chat. Uh, he is now

509
00:26:52,799 --> 00:26:56,319
on Twitter saying, you know, thoughts on on National's Yankees

510
00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:57,559
Today TV.

511
00:26:57,759 --> 00:26:59,519
Speaker 1: I was kind of wrong on that one too. I

512
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:01,160
lead the Nats, thankfully.

513
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:03,960
Speaker 2: Some of the other chat kind of got in my

514
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:06,359
head and got me thinking, and I did kind of

515
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:08,799
talk myself off of it as we were as we

516
00:27:08,799 --> 00:27:11,559
were doing on the show, Brian Leonard, the Yankees do

517
00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:14,240
kind of blow out these teams, right, these these bottom

518
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:17,400
feet are teams. That's like it's almost another way that

519
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:20,079
the Yankees sort of like hype up their profile as

520
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:22,759
a team, especially this year, and then they just go

521
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:24,759
play a real team like the Red Sox and get

522
00:27:24,759 --> 00:27:25,880
blasted for a weekend.

523
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 1: But there is something to that.

524
00:27:27,799 --> 00:27:31,200
Speaker 2: I do feel like the Yankees typically kind of you know,

525
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:35,720
flex at home on lesser teams like the Nationals. They've

526
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:38,200
also been pretty good against left handed pitching. So do

527
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,960
you give the Nats much of a bump for Mackenzie

528
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:42,880
Gore here or is this gonna be more Yankees in

529
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:43,680
the Bronx today.

530
00:27:44,279 --> 00:27:46,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, he is one of their better pitchers, of not

531
00:27:46,319 --> 00:27:49,880
their best, but he had struck a little bit, you know,

532
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:54,440
the second half of the season. Lewis heel back from injury.

533
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:57,240
He comes in and we're looking at about a one

534
00:27:57,319 --> 00:28:02,160
eighty favorite with the Yankees here. Total of nine. Mackenzie

535
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,200
Gore on the season four point one to one, ra

536
00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:06,440
four point two to one, expected, one point three to

537
00:28:06,519 --> 00:28:09,160
five whip. His whip has always been highest. Career whip

538
00:28:09,279 --> 00:28:13,160
is one point four. What he's good at very similar

539
00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:14,839
to a lot of the pitchers we've talked about today.

540
00:28:14,839 --> 00:28:16,839
What he's good at, he's good at, and when he's

541
00:28:16,839 --> 00:28:20,359
bad at, he's bad at. So the strike rate eighty

542
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:24,519
six percentile, WIF rate eighty third extension eighty fifth. But

543
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:27,640
when he's getting hit, he's getting hit hard. His barrel

544
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:31,920
rate seventeenth percentile, hard hit rate twenty fifth, and he's

545
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:34,640
only in the twenty fifth percentile in ground ball rate,

546
00:28:35,039 --> 00:28:38,519
which means fly balls. And this is not a good

547
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,759
team to go against when you when you have a

548
00:28:41,799 --> 00:28:43,839
lot of fly balls, and it's not a good place

549
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:46,960
to go against him. As I mentioned yesterday, the Yankees,

550
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:50,400
I've got, you know, a few teams. I've got twice

551
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:52,400
so many home runs over the Pittsburgh Pirates on the

552
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:56,640
season that that's hard to believe, even though Pittsburgh pitches

553
00:28:56,680 --> 00:29:01,279
in a slightly pitchers park. It's it's still crazy that

554
00:29:01,319 --> 00:29:06,559
one lineup cannot hit home runs. Heel four point two six, ERA,

555
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,559
four point eight eight expected, one point sixty eight whip.

556
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:12,079
That's been his problem is his career one point two

557
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:16,359
seven whip his strike on numbers if you take a

558
00:29:16,359 --> 00:29:20,000
look from his rookie season. Now, this is something that

559
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:23,160
concerns me with heel. I know he's trying to pitch differently,

560
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:26,119
he's trying not to walk as many batters. But he

561
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:28,559
started off at twenty twenty one at twenty nine point

562
00:29:28,599 --> 00:29:31,519
five percent strike out rate, down to twenty six point

563
00:29:31,519 --> 00:29:35,440
three twenty six point eight this year twenty twenty point zero,

564
00:29:36,079 --> 00:29:39,279
and yet his walk rate is fifteen point three. It's

565
00:29:39,359 --> 00:29:41,920
even higher than it's been any other time in his career.

566
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:45,200
Granted small sample size, he is coming off of injury.

567
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:47,400
You got to give give him credit for that. But

568
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:51,319
he's a guy that they're trying to get to not

569
00:29:51,559 --> 00:29:55,720
be so dominant on his fastball because he's in the

570
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:59,920
seventieth eighth percentile in his fastball velocity eighty fifteen extension.

571
00:30:00,559 --> 00:30:02,839
But his ground ball rate is low. So he's a

572
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:05,440
guy who gives up a lot of fly balls. So

573
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:07,000
I got two pitchers give up a lot of fly

574
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:10,519
balls here, and that kind of points me towards the

575
00:30:10,559 --> 00:30:13,279
over at open eight and a half twenty is now

576
00:30:13,319 --> 00:30:16,920
it's nine, as high as minus fifteen, but I still

577
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:19,559
think that's the way I would take a look at this.

578
00:30:19,839 --> 00:30:23,119
The Yankees bullpen they struggle with all year long, and

579
00:30:23,119 --> 00:30:25,839
to watch this got the worst bullpen in baseball. So

580
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:28,960
I prefer the over here over nine and you're getting

581
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:31,960
it minus one fifteen. That's the way I would play

582
00:30:32,039 --> 00:30:32,400
this one.

583
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:37,720
Speaker 4: Alright, Dollar Tuesday, guys, go to wayotalk dot com. See

584
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:43,640
what kappers have available for five bucks. Yeah, heel is

585
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:47,160
kind of an enigma because his last two starts he's

586
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:50,279
only given up two earned runs in ten innings, and

587
00:30:50,359 --> 00:30:53,359
start before that he only gave up two. So if

588
00:30:53,359 --> 00:30:55,279
you look at that, you say, wow, he's not bad.

589
00:30:55,359 --> 00:30:58,640
But then you look at his walk ratio. He's walking

590
00:30:59,319 --> 00:31:03,559
almost eight eighty of the guys he's striking out. His

591
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:09,599
expected numbers terrible. If you include expected era in current form,

592
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:11,880
he ranks twenty two out of thirty on a curve

593
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:16,680
of thirty starting pitchers. Not good. Gore started out the

594
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:20,000
season on fire. He was actually like a top ten pitcher,

595
00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:22,839
and then he's just fallen off a cliff. He hasn't

596
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:27,559
been good lately at all. And his numbers against these

597
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:30,240
Yankees in his career fifty three at bats against. He's

598
00:31:30,279 --> 00:31:33,000
been tagged for a three h two average and a

599
00:31:33,119 --> 00:31:37,519
nine to twenty eight ops against those terrible numbers. So

600
00:31:38,039 --> 00:31:42,920
I would look too an over here. Neither bullpen very good.

601
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:45,160
I mean, the Yankees have talent in their bullpen. They're

602
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:47,680
not performing though. I think there's a lot of guys

603
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,079
on this Yankee roster that are feeling a little bit

604
00:31:50,079 --> 00:31:55,880
of pressure, which is funny because they're basically qualified for

605
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:58,759
the playoffs right now. I mean, they could lose that spot,

606
00:31:58,799 --> 00:32:02,720
but if the Oils or Texas stepped their game up,

607
00:32:02,759 --> 00:32:05,599
they could lose that spot. But the Yankees are in

608
00:32:05,599 --> 00:32:08,200
playoff position right now and they're still feeling pressure, which

609
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:10,400
is kind of funny because if a team like the

610
00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:13,799
Guardians or the Diamondbacks were in the playoff position, they'd

611
00:32:13,799 --> 00:32:16,440
be celebrating. But this is what playing in New York

612
00:32:16,519 --> 00:32:21,640
is all about. Yeah, both teams have good hitters. I

613
00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:24,119
mean I said in previous shows the Yankees are just

614
00:32:24,519 --> 00:32:27,759
an average team, but actually they're hitting right now. You know,

615
00:32:27,839 --> 00:32:31,759
Bellinger and guys besides Judge are actually hitting right now.

616
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:36,799
Jazzism is put in back to back home run games.

617
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:39,480
I would I would look tune over here. I haven't

618
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:40,079
played it yet.

619
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:48,559
Speaker 2: You're muted, Adam, Yeah, the dog the dogs are barkingcided

620
00:32:48,559 --> 00:32:49,000
about that.

621
00:32:49,519 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 1: I don't I don't think you're I don't think you're

622
00:32:51,279 --> 00:32:53,319
wrong about the Yankees being an average team. I just

623
00:32:53,359 --> 00:32:55,240
think they're on there. You know, they're on one of

624
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:57,799
their little upticks. And I do think there's something too,

625
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:00,720
you know, them being at home against an inferior team

626
00:33:00,799 --> 00:33:01,480
like the Nationals.

627
00:33:01,519 --> 00:33:05,400
Speaker 2: These are games that they're probably gonna win. Uh, you know, biggest,

628
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:08,359
biggest thing. I hate that we all agree, but this

629
00:33:08,359 --> 00:33:11,759
this really does feel like it over. And the reason

630
00:33:11,799 --> 00:33:13,680
I think that is, you know, I think you're getting

631
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:17,000
I think you still get some credit for Mackenzie Gore,

632
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:19,559
like he is the Nationals ace and and I do

633
00:33:19,599 --> 00:33:20,960
think he gets.

634
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:21,839
Speaker 1: A little bit of market love.

635
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:23,839
Speaker 2: Maybe it's not on the line here, but but I

636
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:28,680
think the total being nine maybe reflects like two pitchers

637
00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:31,400
that the books feel are like a little bit above average,

638
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:34,400
because you know, heel is like a tough case because

639
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:38,319
of course he's coming off injury. When he's healthy, he

640
00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:41,119
can be very very solid. You know, he's really been

641
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:44,920
pretty good since he got called back up. I'm sorry,

642
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:47,000
since he came back from injury. He's been pretty solid.

643
00:33:47,079 --> 00:33:50,079
Last three starts, two earned right. You know, he's pitched

644
00:33:50,559 --> 00:33:53,480
five or more in all three, hasn't given up more

645
00:33:53,519 --> 00:33:56,359
than two runs, so he's been solid. But I'll go

646
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:58,359
back to something I've said all year with the Nationals.

647
00:33:58,359 --> 00:34:00,839
It didn't work out yesterday, but they do sort of

648
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:03,480
profile as a better option against right handed pitching.

649
00:34:03,519 --> 00:34:05,559
Speaker 1: They're not a team I want against the lefty, but.

650
00:34:05,559 --> 00:34:09,199
Speaker 2: I like, you know, they typically generate some offense when

651
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:10,760
they go up against the right handed starter.

652
00:34:11,119 --> 00:34:13,360
Speaker 1: Now you talked about the Yankees hitting Tokyo Brandon.

653
00:34:14,159 --> 00:34:17,159
Speaker 2: The Yankees are number one in Major League Baseball WRC

654
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:20,119
plus against left handed pitching, one nineteen. That's very good.

655
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:23,119
They have killed lefties this year and they've done it

656
00:34:23,159 --> 00:34:26,079
all season. So you get one again in Mackenzie Gore here,

657
00:34:26,199 --> 00:34:28,320
who struggled a little bit, who maybe still gets a

658
00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:30,960
little market respect. I think you have to look at

659
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:34,199
the over because, yeah, the Nationals have nothing in that

660
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:35,159
bullpen right now.

661
00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:37,360
Speaker 1: There's a couple of good arms that can hold their own.

662
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:39,639
Speaker 2: But like, if you're looking at that collection of pitchers,

663
00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:42,400
it's gonna get out of hand and then you're gonna

664
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:44,280
start to see like this is the other thing you

665
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:46,519
might start to see with the Nationals. They have so

666
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:49,639
few arms they really trust at this point that if

667
00:34:49,679 --> 00:34:53,079
they do get behind, it's gonna probably get out of

668
00:34:53,119 --> 00:34:56,280
hand because they're still gonna sort of manage this to

669
00:34:56,679 --> 00:34:59,840
have like they're gonna want their good arms to potentially

670
00:35:00,039 --> 00:35:02,039
win some games. Like there's still I know they're fifty

671
00:35:02,039 --> 00:35:04,360
three and seventy eight, but they're still trying to set

672
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:06,400
up to win some games. So if they fall behind

673
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:09,440
and then you go with like the sixth or seventh

674
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:12,239
guy in the in you know, on the pecking order

675
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:15,960
in that bullpen, there's gonna be add on runs, no question.

676
00:35:16,039 --> 00:35:18,960
And so I think over nine makes total sense. I

677
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,639
would have had this at ten for a number. So

678
00:35:21,679 --> 00:35:23,159
I think you are getting a little line dow you

679
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:26,639
there with the total of nine. All right, let's move

680
00:35:26,679 --> 00:35:29,360
on and get a head back to Twitter here. Remember

681
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:32,559
we are we are doing this show. We had a

682
00:35:32,559 --> 00:35:36,599
little technical difficulty today, So if you're watching, well you

683
00:35:36,599 --> 00:35:41,039
you are watching on demand, drop your questions and comments

684
00:35:41,079 --> 00:35:43,679
in the chat. We're all going to spend more time

685
00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:45,400
in the chat today, so we want to make sure

686
00:35:46,159 --> 00:35:48,719
you know that we we still include you guys because

687
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:51,360
we miss you here. We're on, you know, doing this

688
00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:54,840
record and just doesn't doesn't feel the same not having

689
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:57,360
the chat going on the right hand side. Hopefully we'll

690
00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:59,920
be back live tomorrow nine am Eastern, like we have

691
00:36:00,079 --> 00:36:01,480
been every day so far this season.

692
00:36:02,119 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 1: All right, let's go back to the chat. Chat wants

693
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:07,000
to talk about Angels Rangers. I have a couple of

694
00:36:07,039 --> 00:36:08,199
requests for this game.

695
00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:10,360
Speaker 2: I personally have an opinion on this game, so I'm

696
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:13,480
glad we're bringing this one up. Brian Leonard the Rangers,

697
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:17,000
it's like every I feel like they should be so

698
00:36:17,199 --> 00:36:21,199
far out of this race at this point, but it's

699
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:24,039
almost like they either play their way back in or

700
00:36:24,119 --> 00:36:26,079
they lose when the other teams lose. So it's like

701
00:36:26,159 --> 00:36:28,320
every day I pull up the standings, I'm like, there's

702
00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:30,760
still only five games back. They've lost two games, yet

703
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:34,559
they're still only five back within striking distance at this point.

704
00:36:34,599 --> 00:36:36,400
The Angels have kind of played their way out of it,

705
00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:39,480
I would say, even with a win last night. So

706
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:43,079
Angels Rangers a couple lefties, A couple lefties that I

707
00:36:43,079 --> 00:36:46,679
don't think Tokyo Brandon cares for particularly much here Kakuochie

708
00:36:46,679 --> 00:36:50,320
and Patrick Corbin and the Rangers clinging on to the

709
00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:53,519
slightest hopes of a playoff spot in the American League.

710
00:36:53,519 --> 00:36:55,679
So how are you seeing this one, Angels Rangers do?

711
00:36:55,679 --> 00:36:57,079
Does a home team bounce back here?

712
00:36:57,599 --> 00:36:59,679
Speaker 3: Yeah? This is another one of those games that I

713
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:01,719
talk about at the end of the show yesterday where

714
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:04,239
I thought there was value on the dog and the

715
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:06,719
Angels saw the shut out Texas. They're not going to

716
00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:08,679
the playoffs. I got a six point nine percent chance

717
00:37:08,679 --> 00:37:11,519
of making the playoffs right now. They just lost the

718
00:37:11,599 --> 00:37:14,159
game they needed to have with their best pitcher on them, well,

719
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:17,920
obviously one of the two of their two best pitchers,

720
00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:20,480
because they've got a couple of guys having really nice seasons.

721
00:37:20,519 --> 00:37:23,480
But I don't want any part of Texas. This is

722
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:27,039
a team I'm looking to fade. Corbin saw better days

723
00:37:27,079 --> 00:37:29,400
earlier in the season than he's had now. Cokuchi is

724
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:33,760
starting to get it back again, and you're getting it

725
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:37,920
basically to pick up situation. Currently, the line is the

726
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:42,119
Angels minus basically one eight one ten. Let's go one

727
00:37:42,159 --> 00:37:47,800
ten in eight and a half on the total. The

728
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:50,519
Angels with Kakuchie on the mound. He's only got that

729
00:37:50,599 --> 00:37:53,480
hot six and eight record, but three point four two

730
00:37:53,599 --> 00:37:56,679
ERA four point three to nine expected, so he's been

731
00:37:56,679 --> 00:37:59,239
a little lucky. One point four to two whip isn't pretty.

732
00:38:00,159 --> 00:38:02,679
His extension is excellent in the eighth percentile. But other

733
00:38:02,679 --> 00:38:05,440
than that, there's not a lot more red on his

734
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:08,760
stackcast page, a lot of blue average eggs of velossity

735
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:12,039
ninth percentile. He's getting hit, He's getting hit pretty good.

736
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:15,239
Patrick Carbin four point six to one ERA, a four

737
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:18,519
point sixty six expected. Yeah, that's about what we probably

738
00:38:18,559 --> 00:38:20,519
expected coming into the season after he got off to

739
00:38:20,559 --> 00:38:23,440
that great start of the year. One point four to

740
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:25,559
one whip always been a problem for him. He walks

741
00:38:25,599 --> 00:38:29,199
too many guys, gives up too many. It's actually walk

742
00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:33,079
Ridge just is basically about league average, is a little

743
00:38:33,119 --> 00:38:35,599
bit better, but he gives up a lot of solid hits.

744
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:43,800
His fastball velocity twelve percentile, his striker eight twenty six,

745
00:38:44,119 --> 00:38:46,960
ground ball rate thirty first, so fly a lot of

746
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:51,159
fly balls there. Basically slider, sinker, cutter is what he

747
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:54,719
goes with, but he does have six pitches. I kind

748
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:57,440
of like the Angels here. I think the Angels looking

749
00:38:57,440 --> 00:39:02,400
from an offensive standpoint, they're much better heading team. Granted,

750
00:39:03,159 --> 00:39:06,159
this is a ballpark that doesn't give up a lot

751
00:39:06,199 --> 00:39:09,599
of home runs this year, and that's a lot what

752
00:39:09,639 --> 00:39:13,599
they do. But you know, the Angels, the Angel's been

753
00:39:13,639 --> 00:39:16,679
out of it for a while and they continue to

754
00:39:16,679 --> 00:39:18,920
to fight. I'm not sure if Texas has that fight

755
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:21,079
in him. Again, keep in mind, there's the team just

756
00:39:21,079 --> 00:39:25,119
what two years ago went to the World Series. Just

757
00:39:25,159 --> 00:39:27,159
a parting season for Texas. They're not going to make

758
00:39:27,159 --> 00:39:29,199
the playoffs, and I think everybody knows that except for

759
00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:29,719
them Prova.

760
00:39:31,519 --> 00:39:36,039
Speaker 4: The Angels are extremely scrappy. Man, these guys. These guys

761
00:39:36,079 --> 00:39:39,880
play their butts off and they they have every for

762
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:42,159
the last three four years. Even we know Tony was

763
00:39:42,159 --> 00:39:47,840
on the team. These guys play. They got some decent

764
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:50,920
bats in their lineup. I mean, I like the Hope

765
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:54,559
guy and Ward, and I mean they've got some decent

766
00:39:54,599 --> 00:40:00,320
bats Trout as well. I mean, obviously, Trout in his

767
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:04,400
prime was one of the best pure hitters in baseball,

768
00:40:04,559 --> 00:40:07,719
a great five tool guy. He's not that anymore, unfortunately,

769
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:12,119
but he's still a solid hitter. So I like the

770
00:40:12,159 --> 00:40:16,800
Angels how they match up in this But I don't

771
00:40:16,880 --> 00:40:20,079
like their hitting. The problem is I got the Angels

772
00:40:20,159 --> 00:40:23,239
ranked higher than Texas that everything except run production. Now

773
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:26,000
Texas I have them dead average at fifteen out of

774
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:28,519
thirty teams, but I have the Angels ranked twenty seven,

775
00:40:28,559 --> 00:40:31,800
which is bad. So if the Angels can get some

776
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:33,840
run production, I like them to win the game.

777
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:34,119
Speaker 1: Here.

778
00:40:35,119 --> 00:40:37,920
Speaker 4: If you look at Corbin how he has performed against

779
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:40,079
the Angels in his career, He's got eighty five at

780
00:40:40,119 --> 00:40:43,039
bats against. They have crushed him three point fifty three

781
00:40:43,079 --> 00:40:46,559
average against in at eight sixty six ops. So I

782
00:40:46,599 --> 00:40:49,719
mean I crush I don't know if they crushed him.

783
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:52,440
They've hit him pretty good. The guys that are doing

784
00:40:52,519 --> 00:40:56,519
the damage though, are not Trout and the guys you expect.

785
00:40:56,559 --> 00:41:04,239
It's Travis, Darnaud, Darnald and Ward and I'll hope, yeah,

786
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:08,239
I hope as four for two. So these kind of guys,

787
00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:10,920
if they can get their bets going in this game,

788
00:41:11,079 --> 00:41:14,400
I like the Angels. If they can't, I don't like anything,

789
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:16,480
because there's no way I would put money on Texas

790
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:17,840
with Corbyn on the mound right now.

791
00:41:20,199 --> 00:41:24,199
Speaker 2: Yeah, I still had my fangrafts Sword w RC plus

792
00:41:24,199 --> 00:41:27,079
against left handed pitching and neither of these teams sit

793
00:41:27,159 --> 00:41:30,360
lefties particularly well. I think that's a point I guess

794
00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:33,360
to be made here both. You know, if you kind

795
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:37,760
of like look at the important categories against left handed pitching,

796
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:40,159
I would say both sort of hover around that bottom

797
00:41:40,199 --> 00:41:43,360
third of the league, right around twenty for both of

798
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:47,079
those teams. So you know, that to me kind of

799
00:41:47,119 --> 00:41:48,639
leans me toward I don't have had a lot of

800
00:41:48,679 --> 00:41:51,039
Total's opinions here, That to me leans me toward an

801
00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:55,079
another under, especially if you can find a nine. I

802
00:41:55,119 --> 00:41:57,679
don't know if there's many nines out there, but I

803
00:41:57,719 --> 00:42:00,440
do see I see some eight even moneies, which which

804
00:42:00,519 --> 00:42:02,800
leads me to believe there's probably some nine minus one

805
00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:04,119
twenties out there somewhere.

806
00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:06,599
Speaker 1: I think if you could get a nine and under

807
00:42:06,679 --> 00:42:10,079
is a reasonable look here. I would again.

808
00:42:10,519 --> 00:42:12,480
Speaker 2: You know, the Rangers, I kind of agree with Brian,

809
00:42:12,639 --> 00:42:15,639
like the it's pretty obvious that they're not a playoff team.

810
00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:17,599
And I go back to some of the comments that

811
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:21,639
Kevin Polar made before he retired, how it's just seems

812
00:42:21,639 --> 00:42:25,199
like a disconnected clubhouse. But those are not really things

813
00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:27,079
you want to hear when you're talking about a team

814
00:42:27,119 --> 00:42:31,280
maybe battling their way back into a postseason race. It

815
00:42:31,480 --> 00:42:34,840
just the vibes are not high, in my opinion, in

816
00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:37,559
Texas right now, and they're looking for someone to put

817
00:42:37,599 --> 00:42:40,320
them out of their misery. Maybe that someone is the Angels,

818
00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:44,320
who you know, to your point, Tokyo Brandon, I feel

819
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:46,440
like the Angels have been out since April first. I mean,

820
00:42:46,480 --> 00:42:48,360
this team is not I didn't think they were. I

821
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:49,719
thought they were one of the worst teams in the

822
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:53,039
league this year, and they continue to go out there

823
00:42:53,079 --> 00:42:58,199
with you know, with no bullpen and lesser pitchers, and

824
00:42:58,239 --> 00:43:01,760
they just scratch and claw. I actually think, you know,

825
00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:05,119
sixty two and sixty nine for them right now is

826
00:43:05,159 --> 00:43:08,519
like a very respectable season, you know, even though they're

827
00:43:08,519 --> 00:43:11,440
not gonna make the playoffs either. They they've battled every

828
00:43:11,440 --> 00:43:14,039
step of the way and another great effort last night

829
00:43:14,039 --> 00:43:14,320
to win.

830
00:43:14,519 --> 00:43:14,679
Speaker 3: You know.

831
00:43:14,760 --> 00:43:16,719
Speaker 2: So I don't know that I necessarily want to bet

832
00:43:17,079 --> 00:43:19,079
against them either. I think if I had to play

833
00:43:19,119 --> 00:43:22,320
this one, I'd look for that nine flat and go under,

834
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:25,679
because you know, I talked about the Rangers bullpen, even

835
00:43:25,719 --> 00:43:28,280
though they don't really have the big time leverage. Guys

836
00:43:28,280 --> 00:43:31,119
that are like, you know, the the eighth.

837
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:33,719
Speaker 1: Ninth inning guys. The bullpen as a whole.

838
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:35,719
Speaker 2: Has been very strong this year for the Rangers, and

839
00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:38,920
pitching has been very strong. So you get one of

840
00:43:38,960 --> 00:43:41,480
Corbyn's good days where he goes five to six, gives

841
00:43:41,519 --> 00:43:42,199
up two or three.

842
00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:45,000
Speaker 1: The Rangers will be in this game. But more importantly,

843
00:43:45,039 --> 00:43:47,599
I think you'll have yourself a pretty good chance to

844
00:43:47,639 --> 00:43:51,039
hit an under nine. So I'll look to under nine there.

845
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:57,800
All right, I'm gonna say before he has to go, Yeah,

846
00:43:57,840 --> 00:43:59,639
I mean we started late, so we're still gonna give

847
00:43:59,639 --> 00:44:02,119
you the full. We've got about seventeen minutes left, so

848
00:44:02,159 --> 00:44:05,280
I think probably two more games. Do you eat it to, Brian?

849
00:44:05,320 --> 00:44:07,599
Do you want to propose a game to talk about

850
00:44:07,639 --> 00:44:08,679
here that you're looking.

851
00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:11,880
Speaker 3: I want to take a look at this Boston Baltimore game.

852
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:18,079
Current line right here, we've got Gieledo going for Boston,

853
00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:21,920
Kyle Bradish finally back for Baltimore. Let's hope he doesn't

854
00:44:21,920 --> 00:44:24,960
get hurt again before the season ends, because when he does,

855
00:44:25,199 --> 00:44:29,639
when he's pitching, he's been excellent. But we've got basically

856
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:33,559
to pick him situation right now, and I think Baltimore

857
00:44:33,599 --> 00:44:36,239
should probably be favored because of the picture of a

858
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:38,760
Bradish I really like him, but it is his first

859
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:42,159
start coming off of the Yeah, well that's always a concern.

860
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:46,039
But we're looking at what I'm going to use here

861
00:44:46,119 --> 00:44:49,559
for my parlay is the first half of this game,

862
00:44:49,599 --> 00:44:54,039
because I wanted the matchup of Bradish against Giolito Geolito

863
00:44:54,119 --> 00:45:00,159
on the season. Coming in. He has a three three

864
00:45:00,199 --> 00:45:02,840
point seven two ERA and a one point two seven

865
00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:05,280
whip whips a little high, but the RA looks good

866
00:45:05,360 --> 00:45:08,599
until you look at his expected the IRA five point

867
00:45:08,639 --> 00:45:12,239
two one one and a half runs higher than what

868
00:45:13,679 --> 00:45:16,000
it is expected the IRA is, and keep in mind

869
00:45:16,119 --> 00:45:18,679
or his ERA is, and keep in mind last year

870
00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:21,280
he didn't pitch, but in the last two years prior

871
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:24,119
to that four point eighty eighty RA four point nine

872
00:45:24,239 --> 00:45:26,679
zero ERA, and that was with one hundred and eighty

873
00:45:26,679 --> 00:45:29,239
four and one hundred and sixty one in, he's pitched.

874
00:45:30,079 --> 00:45:32,800
Gilido is not a guy I'm looking to back his extension.

875
00:45:32,840 --> 00:45:35,320
It's good at seventy six percentile, but everything else is

876
00:45:35,320 --> 00:45:42,159
in blue on the stackcast page, especially week in certain areas,

877
00:45:42,199 --> 00:45:45,199
the with rates not good twenty seven percentile, barrel rate

878
00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:48,400
twenty fifth, round ball twenty six, so he gives up

879
00:45:48,519 --> 00:45:52,280
fly balls and this is a park that Baltimore has

880
00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:54,639
brought the fences in a little bit. I think he's

881
00:45:54,639 --> 00:45:59,400
going to struggle here. And cal Bradish last two years

882
00:45:59,599 --> 00:46:03,000
in twenty three he had because one hundred sixty eight innings,

883
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:05,239
had a two point eight three ERA one point oh

884
00:46:05,239 --> 00:46:08,599
four whip last year and only thirty nine innings because

885
00:46:08,639 --> 00:46:11,800
of injury two point seventy five ERA one point oh

886
00:46:11,800 --> 00:46:15,920
seven whip. This is a guy that is the ace

887
00:46:16,119 --> 00:46:19,039
of this Baltimore staff. If he is pitching Gunner Henderson

888
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:20,960
when he comes back next year, he's going to be

889
00:46:21,079 --> 00:46:24,559
very good as well. But this guy Kyle Bradish, when

890
00:46:24,599 --> 00:46:28,360
he's healthy, he's been very good. And we'll set to

891
00:46:28,400 --> 00:46:30,639
see how it works out for this one. But I

892
00:46:30,719 --> 00:46:34,320
want no part of Giolito. The reason I'm making to

893
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:38,199
you in the first five is because the Baltimore bullpen

894
00:46:39,239 --> 00:46:43,159
isn't shambles right now, and the Boston bullpen is looking

895
00:46:43,199 --> 00:46:45,159
pretty good. So let's just make it the first five.

896
00:46:45,679 --> 00:46:49,639
Let's play Baltimore first five minus one ten with Bratish

897
00:46:49,639 --> 00:46:50,360
over Geeledo.

898
00:46:52,519 --> 00:46:55,519
Speaker 4: Okay, I'll be straight up with you, guys. I have

899
00:46:55,880 --> 00:46:59,679
zero read on this game because Giorlito's numbers are just

900
00:46:59,800 --> 00:47:02,639
all all over the place. I got him ranked below

901
00:47:02,679 --> 00:47:07,599
average on his expected and current form, but his last

902
00:47:07,639 --> 00:47:09,679
few starts he's been pretty good. But the thing is,

903
00:47:10,159 --> 00:47:12,760
he's all over the place. I mean, he gives up one,

904
00:47:13,159 --> 00:47:15,440
then he gives up four, then he gives up one again,

905
00:47:15,519 --> 00:47:17,280
then he gives up three. I mean, I don't know

906
00:47:17,320 --> 00:47:20,760
what to expect from him, And with Bradish making his

907
00:47:20,840 --> 00:47:22,800
first start, I really don't know what to expect from

908
00:47:22,880 --> 00:47:28,519
him either. The main thing I can contribute to actionable

909
00:47:28,599 --> 00:47:32,920
information here would be to agree with Brian that Boston's

910
00:47:32,920 --> 00:47:36,000
bullpen is really solid right now and the Oriols bullpen

911
00:47:36,119 --> 00:47:40,280
is not. Both teams are hitting pretty mediocre at the moment.

912
00:47:41,159 --> 00:47:46,039
That's really the only input I can give on this one.

913
00:47:46,199 --> 00:47:47,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was just checking it.

914
00:47:47,280 --> 00:47:50,039
Speaker 2: Look it looks like the Orioles are taking some money

915
00:47:50,079 --> 00:47:51,760
right now, and I agree with that.

916
00:47:51,760 --> 00:47:53,960
Speaker 1: They may get they may get my money as well.

917
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:57,239
Speaker 2: This is this is when I kind of had, you know,

918
00:47:57,639 --> 00:48:00,400
circle three or four games today that I'm get to

919
00:48:00,400 --> 00:48:04,840
the window with. I would say, as the show goes

920
00:48:04,880 --> 00:48:07,519
on and the morning goes on, I'm starting to get

921
00:48:07,599 --> 00:48:08,760
more confident in this one.

922
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:09,639
Speaker 1: And then of course Brian.

923
00:48:10,119 --> 00:48:12,639
Speaker 2: I love that you brought it up and that you

924
00:48:12,639 --> 00:48:15,000
you know, you seem to like the Orioles, because that's

925
00:48:15,000 --> 00:48:17,199
the way I was looking as well. Talk about Kyle

926
00:48:17,199 --> 00:48:20,199
Bradish for a minute. You know, he's been at So

927
00:48:21,159 --> 00:48:23,320
when guys are out for like a long period of time,

928
00:48:23,679 --> 00:48:27,559
typically they get a long rehab at you know, in

929
00:48:27,639 --> 00:48:29,880
the miners, right, And that's so so Bradish missed the

930
00:48:30,039 --> 00:48:32,719
entire first half of the season, so his rehab has

931
00:48:32,760 --> 00:48:36,039
actually gone on for six weeks at this point or more,

932
00:48:36,199 --> 00:48:40,199
like you know, he he he made his first competitive

933
00:48:40,199 --> 00:48:44,760
outing on July twenty fourth at High A. And so

934
00:48:44,760 --> 00:48:48,199
what I've noticed trying to evaluate guys that have these

935
00:48:48,280 --> 00:48:52,320
long rehabs at the miners, you can kind of tell

936
00:48:52,360 --> 00:48:54,960
when it goes there's a there's typically a shift when

937
00:48:55,000 --> 00:48:57,159
it's like, hey, just go throw the ball over the plate,

938
00:48:57,239 --> 00:49:00,679
throw some strikes. Don't worry about trying to get batters out.

939
00:49:00,800 --> 00:49:03,119
Just literally go throw strikes and we'll see what happens

940
00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:07,239
to all right, we're getting closer, Like now go like

941
00:49:07,280 --> 00:49:08,880
see if see if you can get out, and we'll

942
00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:12,440
have a competitive outing. And so for him, I would

943
00:49:12,440 --> 00:49:14,880
say that that was the last two we're almost like

944
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:17,719
what I'll call the dress rehearsal type starts for him.

945
00:49:18,760 --> 00:49:22,599
Against Jacksonville he was very very good. Five scoreless, nine strikeouts,

946
00:49:22,639 --> 00:49:27,360
two walks. I watched the Charlotte game last week, thought

947
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:30,519
he threw it fine four and two thirds. He did

948
00:49:30,559 --> 00:49:32,239
give up a couple of hits a couple of runs,

949
00:49:32,679 --> 00:49:33,920
still had three strikeouts.

950
00:49:33,960 --> 00:49:35,039
Speaker 1: The command was pretty good.

951
00:49:35,119 --> 00:49:37,880
Speaker 2: So this is a scenario where I think I'm okay

952
00:49:38,559 --> 00:49:42,280
backing him here, just because it's not like where I

953
00:49:42,320 --> 00:49:45,360
don't like betting guys off of rehab or off of

954
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:49,880
minor league appearances. Is when like they were hurt mid season,

955
00:49:51,119 --> 00:49:53,639
they come back, they make like one start at Triple A,

956
00:49:53,679 --> 00:49:55,400
and it's like, yeah, throw me back out there.

957
00:49:55,719 --> 00:49:58,119
Speaker 1: That tends to be a little bit shaky.

958
00:49:58,719 --> 00:50:02,280
Speaker 2: This is like he had a spring probably when when

959
00:50:02,320 --> 00:50:05,599
you know his spring was probably most of July. Then

960
00:50:05,639 --> 00:50:08,559
he's had six starts at the miners, like this is

961
00:50:08,599 --> 00:50:11,000
almost like opening day for Bradish. So I feel like

962
00:50:11,199 --> 00:50:13,280
I'm treating him more like like what I would expect

963
00:50:13,320 --> 00:50:15,679
out of him on opening day. Uh So I'm fine

964
00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:18,239
with backing him. As far as Gilio's concerned. I think

965
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:20,400
I've said it on the show a couple of times.

966
00:50:20,760 --> 00:50:23,480
I mean, the fact that he's been able to do

967
00:50:23,559 --> 00:50:27,159
what he's done since about June first has been very impressive.

968
00:50:27,199 --> 00:50:29,559
That being said, I think we're starting to see like

969
00:50:29,599 --> 00:50:31,639
the come down a little bit, like he had that

970
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:34,280
unreal run into the All Star break and he's still

971
00:50:34,280 --> 00:50:37,000
been okay, but he hasn't been quite as sharp. And

972
00:50:37,039 --> 00:50:38,400
then if you go back to the beginning of the

973
00:50:38,440 --> 00:50:40,920
season that was the bad gelato that that could get

974
00:50:40,960 --> 00:50:43,920
blown up. I still think that guy is in there somewhere,

975
00:50:44,320 --> 00:50:47,920
especially against the uh, you know, the Orioles, who I'll

976
00:50:47,960 --> 00:50:50,840
say this, I think I've said this probably five times

977
00:50:50,880 --> 00:50:53,840
in the past week, where you want to bet the

978
00:50:53,880 --> 00:50:56,559
Orioles when they're a at home and when they're b

979
00:50:56,800 --> 00:50:59,360
against up against the right handed pitcher, right handed pitcher,

980
00:50:59,360 --> 00:51:01,880
they hit right he's better and they hit better at home,

981
00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:04,800
and you're kind of getting that combination here. So Brian,

982
00:51:04,920 --> 00:51:08,199
I do trust Bradish and I think I'm okay with

983
00:51:08,320 --> 00:51:10,840
the Orioles bullpen and the way it's set up to

984
00:51:11,639 --> 00:51:14,400
go full game. I'm not saying that you're not right

985
00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:17,360
to target first five as well, but I do like

986
00:51:17,400 --> 00:51:19,639
the Orioles here and that may be a client bet

987
00:51:19,679 --> 00:51:22,039
for me. Were you putting this in the parlay right here?

988
00:51:22,239 --> 00:51:26,840
Speaker 3: This will be my parlay and yeah, it's it's a

989
00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:30,400
situation where I just think the Baltemore kept him down

990
00:51:30,480 --> 00:51:32,679
because they've been on the playoffs for such a long time.

991
00:51:32,719 --> 00:51:35,519
They had that ability, there was no need to rush him.

992
00:51:35,920 --> 00:51:37,760
But now they want to see what he can do.

993
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:39,440
He's give him a couple of months here and hopefully

994
00:51:39,519 --> 00:51:42,119
stays healthy, and then they'll slot in as a one

995
00:51:42,199 --> 00:51:44,079
or two next year for the Orioles.

996
00:51:45,920 --> 00:51:46,679
Speaker 1: That's a great point.

997
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:50,199
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean six six starts at the minor league level,

998
00:51:50,239 --> 00:51:53,960
plus he likely had a spring in July and into

999
00:51:54,000 --> 00:51:54,800
the All Star break.

1000
00:51:54,880 --> 00:51:56,880
Speaker 1: Like they've given him more than enough time. I think

1001
00:51:56,920 --> 00:51:57,800
you're gonna get like.

1002
00:51:59,239 --> 00:52:01,960
Speaker 2: A pretty state endered start from him here, Brian, what's

1003
00:52:02,000 --> 00:52:03,559
the odds on that first five bet?

1004
00:52:03,760 --> 00:52:04,519
Speaker 3: Minus one? Ten?

1005
00:52:07,519 --> 00:52:07,960
Speaker 1: All right?

1006
00:52:08,400 --> 00:52:10,280
Speaker 2: All right, so we've got two legs of the parlay

1007
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:13,960
locked in so far. Tokyo, Brandon, have we talked about

1008
00:52:14,000 --> 00:52:15,480
your leg or do you want to throw a game

1009
00:52:15,480 --> 00:52:17,159
out there for us to We have not.

1010
00:52:17,199 --> 00:52:19,719
Speaker 4: But it's not worth covering because I'm gonna cheat and

1011
00:52:19,800 --> 00:52:23,960
take the Astros's.

1012
00:52:22,079 --> 00:52:25,039
Speaker 2: All right, it is absolutely worth covering. Hey, we were

1013
00:52:25,119 --> 00:52:28,320
no we're gonna cover this game. It's we're gonna cover

1014
00:52:28,400 --> 00:52:32,639
this game. Because pretty much anytime we've brought up the

1015
00:52:32,760 --> 00:52:35,159
Rockies as like a massive dog, I feel like we've

1016
00:52:35,159 --> 00:52:36,719
given out pretty solid intel.

1017
00:52:37,239 --> 00:52:38,119
Speaker 1: I think we do.

1018
00:52:38,239 --> 00:52:40,599
Speaker 2: Particularly like, even if you go back, there was a

1019
00:52:40,639 --> 00:52:43,280
series where earlier this year where they played I think

1020
00:52:43,440 --> 00:52:45,559
was the Phillies, and we hit like every game, and

1021
00:52:45,599 --> 00:52:49,159
we were like, just bet the over, like and I

1022
00:52:49,159 --> 00:52:51,519
think Phillies and like, you could have laddered it and

1023
00:52:51,519 --> 00:52:53,280
it would have won. Last week, I thought we did

1024
00:52:53,320 --> 00:52:56,199
a great job breaking that Rockies Dodgers series down. So

1025
00:52:56,280 --> 00:52:58,039
let's let's give it the full rub right here. We'll

1026
00:52:58,079 --> 00:53:00,679
go to Brian Leonard. Uh, this is Rockies on the

1027
00:53:00,760 --> 00:53:04,320
Road at Houston tonight. If I remember correctly, these two

1028
00:53:04,360 --> 00:53:08,360
teams actually played in Denver earlier this year, and for

1029
00:53:08,400 --> 00:53:10,639
the most part, the Astros racked up a whole bunch

1030
00:53:10,679 --> 00:53:12,599
of hits in that series. I think they may have

1031
00:53:12,679 --> 00:53:14,800
lost one of the games, but if I remember off

1032
00:53:14,840 --> 00:53:19,199
of memory, they had no problem hitting Rockies pitching, and

1033
00:53:20,000 --> 00:53:22,599
you know they're gonna probably hit Tanner Gordon, who I

1034
00:53:22,679 --> 00:53:26,599
think sort of who deed hit like an unbelievable start

1035
00:53:26,719 --> 00:53:29,440
last time, Like, I think he threw a pretty good

1036
00:53:29,480 --> 00:53:32,000
start against the Dodgers, something you're not going to see

1037
00:53:32,079 --> 00:53:34,719
very often from Tanner Gordon at the big league level.

1038
00:53:34,800 --> 00:53:37,719
So Hunter Brown Tanner Gordon, any way to go in

1039
00:53:37,719 --> 00:53:39,159
this one other than try to find a way to

1040
00:53:39,159 --> 00:53:40,159
play the Astros here.

1041
00:53:40,079 --> 00:53:43,880
Speaker 3: Brian, I don't get involved games this high as currently

1042
00:53:44,199 --> 00:53:48,239
three forty the total is eight, so slightly to the

1043
00:53:48,360 --> 00:53:51,559
under here. Yeah, the road Rockies, you know, what are

1044
00:53:51,599 --> 00:53:57,360
they know, sixteen to forty nine on the season, so

1045
00:53:58,239 --> 00:54:00,679
they lose three out of four on the road, which

1046
00:54:00,679 --> 00:54:05,000
would be what a So, yeah, there may still be

1047
00:54:05,119 --> 00:54:08,840
value on Houston because of that. That problem is Houston offense.

1048
00:54:08,880 --> 00:54:12,079
If you take a look at w WRC plus over

1049
00:54:12,119 --> 00:54:14,679
the last fourteen days, there was sixty two. That was

1050
00:54:14,760 --> 00:54:17,559
my only concern as they're not hitting right now. I

1051
00:54:17,599 --> 00:54:20,800
did start started coming out of it for the last

1052
00:54:20,840 --> 00:54:24,360
few days, but I won't get there, but I will

1053
00:54:24,480 --> 00:54:27,519
root for it. Hopefully it does better than a two

1054
00:54:27,559 --> 00:54:29,039
dollars favorite we had yesterday.

1055
00:54:29,639 --> 00:54:32,519
Speaker 1: But yeah, that was unbelievable.

1056
00:54:32,719 --> 00:54:34,599
Speaker 3: Yeah, we didn't have much luck at the end of

1057
00:54:34,639 --> 00:54:37,480
that one. But yeah, let's let's go with it. I

1058
00:54:37,519 --> 00:54:38,559
have nothing to add.

1059
00:54:41,039 --> 00:54:45,599
Speaker 4: Before everyone calls me, you know, chicken tured for taking this. Look,

1060
00:54:46,280 --> 00:54:48,639
this is a three leg parlay and we haven't won

1061
00:54:48,679 --> 00:54:51,039
one in a while, so I am going to cheat

1062
00:54:51,519 --> 00:54:55,119
and take this. I know it's minus three forty blah blah,

1063
00:54:55,360 --> 00:54:58,119
go ahead, money's money. I want to win that parlay.

1064
00:54:58,960 --> 00:55:00,519
Speaker 1: Is it really up to that? Is that really what

1065
00:55:00,599 --> 00:55:00,800
it is?

1066
00:55:00,840 --> 00:55:01,119
Speaker 3: Brian?

1067
00:55:01,159 --> 00:55:02,039
Speaker 1: Do you have a money line?

1068
00:55:02,039 --> 00:55:02,199
Speaker 4: Now?

1069
00:55:02,280 --> 00:55:06,599
Speaker 3: Yeah, the best number out there is three twenty four

1070
00:55:06,599 --> 00:55:11,079
at circa. Uh, but you're laying you know, the draft

1071
00:55:11,079 --> 00:55:13,679
game spandal, you're laying three sixty or whatever.

1072
00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:18,920
Speaker 4: So yeah, three, Sorry, but we need to win one

1073
00:55:18,920 --> 00:55:21,639
of these Tokyo, Brandon, talk to me about the team

1074
00:55:21,679 --> 00:55:22,159
total lot.

1075
00:55:22,320 --> 00:55:24,320
Speaker 1: You know Astro's team total. I know they're home and

1076
00:55:24,360 --> 00:55:25,320
you and you know you.

1077
00:55:25,320 --> 00:55:26,960
Speaker 2: You got to assume you're going to have to do

1078
00:55:27,000 --> 00:55:29,599
it in eight at bats four and a half on

1079
00:55:29,679 --> 00:55:31,840
a team total seems a little bit low to me.

1080
00:55:31,880 --> 00:55:34,440
Eating in that minus won thirty five juice. I almost

1081
00:55:34,440 --> 00:55:35,159
think you could bet that.

1082
00:55:35,199 --> 00:55:35,679
Speaker 1: What do you think?

1083
00:55:37,159 --> 00:55:41,480
Speaker 4: Yeah? You could. And the reason I like this is because, yeah, Gordon,

1084
00:55:42,280 --> 00:55:44,679
his last two starts, he's He's only giving up four

1085
00:55:44,960 --> 00:55:47,119
run in his last two starts, but those were at

1086
00:55:47,159 --> 00:55:50,280
home on the road. In his last two starts, he's

1087
00:55:50,320 --> 00:55:53,159
given up sixteen earned runs in his last two eight

1088
00:55:53,239 --> 00:55:57,280
earned runs per game in his last two on the road.

1089
00:55:57,519 --> 00:56:03,360
That's bad. His road er is thirteen and you know,

1090
00:56:03,480 --> 00:56:05,880
a granted it's a small sample size the twelve innings,

1091
00:56:05,880 --> 00:56:09,639
but I think the Astros bats will wake up here

1092
00:56:10,800 --> 00:56:14,360
and Colorado's just a terrible road team. Look, Hunter Brown

1093
00:56:14,519 --> 00:56:18,239
has been in my top ten pitching or top twenty

1094
00:56:18,280 --> 00:56:22,559
pitching ranking all season long. He's a solid pitcher, and

1095
00:56:22,960 --> 00:56:27,400
I don't think although I actually do like the scrappiness

1096
00:56:27,400 --> 00:56:29,559
of the Colorado Rockies, and they do have some good

1097
00:56:29,599 --> 00:56:34,360
young players and some good veterans like Moniac, but I

1098
00:56:34,480 --> 00:56:39,199
just think, you know, bullpen hitting pitcher. I just think

1099
00:56:39,199 --> 00:56:41,599
the Astros are too much and Rockies just don't win

1100
00:56:41,679 --> 00:56:45,599
on the road. So Astros it is. Yes, I'm a chicken.

1101
00:56:48,320 --> 00:56:49,719
Speaker 1: I would like if you don't.

1102
00:56:49,840 --> 00:56:52,199
Speaker 2: You know, obviously it's fine for the par Like you know,

1103
00:56:52,239 --> 00:56:54,039
I don't think anyone's going to bet a three dollars

1104
00:56:54,079 --> 00:56:58,199
favorite straight up, But I don't dislike the thought that

1105
00:56:58,239 --> 00:57:00,599
maybe this is where the Astros break out a little bit.

1106
00:57:01,400 --> 00:57:03,639
Tanner Gordon, I've talked about a couple of times this

1107
00:57:03,719 --> 00:57:06,400
year near the bottom of my rankings for triple A.

1108
00:57:06,880 --> 00:57:09,159
So the fact that he is sort of, you know,

1109
00:57:09,280 --> 00:57:11,079
the fact that he has done what he's done in

1110
00:57:11,119 --> 00:57:15,159
his last couple of starts, I suppose it's impressive. The

1111
00:57:15,480 --> 00:57:18,639
start against the Dodgers, I think, if I remember correctly,

1112
00:57:18,920 --> 00:57:21,480
he drew the Dodgers in a spot where they couldn't

1113
00:57:21,480 --> 00:57:23,719
have been less interested to be playing a baseball game.

1114
00:57:24,880 --> 00:57:25,599
Speaker 1: I think they like.

1115
00:57:25,639 --> 00:57:27,800
Speaker 2: Got blown out in that game and he kind of

1116
00:57:27,840 --> 00:57:32,039
like coasted one run on six what six innings, one run,

1117
00:57:32,079 --> 00:57:35,760
four hits, like that was a very unfocused Dodgers team

1118
00:57:35,800 --> 00:57:36,280
in that game.

1119
00:57:36,800 --> 00:57:38,480
Speaker 1: But I'm not going to take away like it's still

1120
00:57:38,519 --> 00:57:39,280
not easy to do.

1121
00:57:39,960 --> 00:57:42,760
Speaker 2: But the Astros, I do think, are going to be

1122
00:57:42,800 --> 00:57:45,480
far more focused than La was in that game. And

1123
00:57:46,400 --> 00:57:49,320
you know what better for for an offenses has been struggling.

1124
00:57:49,639 --> 00:57:52,119
What better chance to take advantage of, you know, to

1125
00:57:52,159 --> 00:57:54,559
try to maybe run it up a little bit and

1126
00:57:54,599 --> 00:57:58,679
get your mojo back than the Rockies, right And Tanner Gordon,

1127
00:57:58,719 --> 00:58:00,639
if they can get to him early and they can

1128
00:58:00,679 --> 00:58:02,199
put a crooked number up there early.

1129
00:58:02,599 --> 00:58:03,280
Speaker 1: They're gonna have.

1130
00:58:03,320 --> 00:58:05,599
Speaker 2: No problem getting to five runs in this game. Not

1131
00:58:05,719 --> 00:58:08,800
my usual style, but I really think there's gonna be

1132
00:58:09,159 --> 00:58:10,519
some offense for Houston here.

1133
00:58:10,760 --> 00:58:12,320
Speaker 1: Sorry, Brian, were you gonna add something there?

1134
00:58:12,599 --> 00:58:14,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've got run. We've got off to a late

1135
00:58:14,960 --> 00:58:19,199
start here today. So just can then can we go

1136
00:58:19,239 --> 00:58:21,760
over the price of the parlay run out? Yep?

1137
00:58:21,840 --> 00:58:22,559
Speaker 1: That's that is.

1138
00:58:22,800 --> 00:58:24,599
Speaker 2: We are at the hour mark, so we are gonna

1139
00:58:24,599 --> 00:58:29,880
wrap it up three team or today we have three side. Well,

1140
00:58:29,960 --> 00:58:32,760
we have a first five and two full games Tokyo.

1141
00:58:32,760 --> 00:58:38,199
Brandon's going with the Astros. We have the Podres for me.

1142
00:58:38,920 --> 00:58:41,000
What's the number on the Padres is that is that.

1143
00:58:40,960 --> 00:58:44,119
Speaker 3: Plus Baltimore's minus one ten first half?

1144
00:58:45,920 --> 00:58:48,719
Speaker 2: All right, so we have and that minus one ten

1145
00:58:48,800 --> 00:58:50,639
is a first five bet. So we have memorials for

1146
00:58:50,719 --> 00:58:54,599
Brian Leonard first five minus one ten. I'll be on

1147
00:58:54,639 --> 00:58:58,480
the Padres money line, Tokyo brand Tokyo Brandon on the Astros,

1148
00:58:58,519 --> 00:59:03,440
and that three team or is plus four so Orioles

1149
00:59:03,639 --> 00:59:07,960
first five Padres money line, Astros money line. It's a

1150
00:59:07,960 --> 00:59:09,880
three teamer plus three ninety four.

1151
00:59:10,239 --> 00:59:13,000
Speaker 1: We will hopefully be back live tomorrow morning at the

1152
00:59:13,119 --> 00:59:17,280
usual time nine am Eastern. Sorry about the technical difficulties today.

1153
00:59:17,480 --> 00:59:20,360
Speaker 2: Appreciate you tuning in on demand five dollars Tuesday at

1154
00:59:20,360 --> 00:59:21,920
wager Talk, everyone's got to play.

1155
00:59:21,760 --> 00:59:24,400
Speaker 1: Up four five dollars and we will see you guys tomorrow.

1156
00:59:24,639 --> 00:59:28,159
Have a good day.