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<v Speaker 1>It is a thirty fifty five car. See the talk

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<v Speaker 1>stations dating the obvious. It's Tuesday. For regular listeners, they

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<v Speaker 1>know it's appointment listening. It's that time a week we

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<v Speaker 1>do the Daniel Davis Deep Dive, the fort d's of

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<v Speaker 1>Daniel Davis, not the five d's of Dodgeball. Welcome back,

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<v Speaker 1>retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis. Have a deep dive. Let's

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<v Speaker 1>talk about again. War's good to see my friend. Have

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<v Speaker 1>you back on the program?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, where'd you get talking about something happy one of

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<v Speaker 3>these days? But I know, I guess we got to

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<v Speaker 3>know what we gotta know.

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<v Speaker 1>Trust me, you know, and I know you do this

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<v Speaker 1>for a living too, But you know, I just every

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<v Speaker 1>single day, you know, I've got stacks of just articles

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<v Speaker 1>after articles, I always tell my listeners. At the end

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<v Speaker 1>of the week, after doing five shows four hours a day,

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<v Speaker 1>I usually have a reams worth of paper of articles

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<v Speaker 1>that I didn't get to and sadly none of which

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<v Speaker 1>has any good information.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a depressing job, man. Wow.

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<v Speaker 1>Anyway, speaking of depressing, not nearly as depressing as apparently

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<v Speaker 1>the Ukrainians feeling. Right now, let's start with Ukraine. The

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<v Speaker 1>more I read the more I read that Russia taking

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<v Speaker 1>over more and more land in Ukraine. They're advancing, not retreating.

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<v Speaker 1>They're holding onto what they have gained. Ukrainians obviously struggling

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<v Speaker 1>with getting people to fight for them, people leaving the

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<v Speaker 1>country rather than serve. They keep asking for more and

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<v Speaker 1>more weapons, ammunitions. I know there's kind of a slow

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<v Speaker 1>drag on getting that. Can we provide them with enough

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<v Speaker 1>that they could even defend or fight themselves or gain

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<v Speaker 1>back the land? That remains a big question, And now

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<v Speaker 1>they're pressing for NATO membership. What's your assessment on this

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<v Speaker 1>one this week.

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<v Speaker 3>Daniel, Yeah, it's not very good from their Ukrainian perspective,

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<v Speaker 3>because the biggest issue is not necessarily equipment and ammunition

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<v Speaker 3>as it had been for a long time, but manpower

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<v Speaker 3>that they are out numbered on the front lines. In fact,

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<v Speaker 3>Secretary of Defense Austin is there right now, and then

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<v Speaker 3>he just announced a new four hundred million dollar package

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<v Speaker 3>and they're going to get more ammunition and high marsh

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<v Speaker 3>missiles and a number of other things that they need.

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<v Speaker 3>But there's a second unexpected problem for some in that

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<v Speaker 3>it's not just the number of artillery shells but the

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<v Speaker 3>number of artillery tubes, the actual cannons are starting to

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<v Speaker 3>wear out.

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<v Speaker 2>They're being of.

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<v Speaker 3>Course destroyed in battle, and they have a hard time

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<v Speaker 3>getting enough because the West doesn't have enough to give

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<v Speaker 3>them in the large numbers that they're needing. So the

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<v Speaker 3>rate of fire continues to go down. But the biggest

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<v Speaker 3>issue is the manpower issue. That's why all along, especially

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<v Speaker 3>the southern half of the Eastern Front, is showing bigger

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<v Speaker 3>and bigger and just sustained advances by the Russian side,

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<v Speaker 3>and there's nothing that the Ukraine side has tried to

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<v Speaker 3>do that's gonna get.

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<v Speaker 2>Rid of them.

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<v Speaker 3>And one of the other reasons is because Russia continues,

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<v Speaker 3>according to US intelligence, to innovate even faster than the

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<v Speaker 3>Ukraine side can on the battlefield about what works, what

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<v Speaker 3>doesn't work. They shift to something new, they try a

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<v Speaker 3>new tactic, they new technology, et cetera, and the Ukraine

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<v Speaker 3>side just can't catch up, and they just keep getting

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<v Speaker 3>pushing further to the west.

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<v Speaker 1>Whoa, and you're out numbered by that many men. If

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<v Speaker 1>you're talking about soldiers versus one side versus another, I

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<v Speaker 1>suppose it becomes impossible to react on the fly to

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<v Speaker 1>these various changes. The Soviet I keep saying, the Soviets.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm sorry, Daniel, I'm of that mindset. I'm fifty nine

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<v Speaker 1>years old, I lived my whole life fighting the Soviet

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<v Speaker 1>Union and anyway. But the Russians, they have that advantage

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<v Speaker 1>of manpower, and so they have a strategic advantage over

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<v Speaker 1>maybe trying out different options. What can Ukraine possibly do?

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<v Speaker 1>Is that why they want NATO membership, so that everybody

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<v Speaker 1>gets drawn into it. They get soldiers from all the

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<v Speaker 1>NATO countries. I can't see that as a viable option

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<v Speaker 1>for us. It's not for us.

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<v Speaker 3>But that is one hundred percent what Zelenski wanted, which

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<v Speaker 3>is why his victory planned that he announced last week

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<v Speaker 3>centered on first, get me into.

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<v Speaker 2>NATO right now. Then give me all your.

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<v Speaker 3>Weapons and everything else so we can shoot longer range,

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<v Speaker 3>et cetera. But look, I think we've talked before. Long

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<v Speaker 3>range weapons are not going to change the course of

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<v Speaker 3>a war. It's going to be just another piece added

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<v Speaker 3>into it. But it's got to be combined with other

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<v Speaker 3>things or it's just not going to have any impact.

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<v Speaker 3>But it could have disastrous consequences because if Russia takes

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<v Speaker 3>that and it acts on what they said, then they

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<v Speaker 3>could expand the warr in jeery and that's what's got

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of the Western people unwilling so far, and

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<v Speaker 3>I mean all of them to allow their long range

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<v Speaker 3>weapons to be used by Ukraine into Russia. And for

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<v Speaker 3>good reason, we shouldn't do that. But there's an additional

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<v Speaker 3>problem with the manpower on the Ukraine side. I did

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<v Speaker 3>want to mention is that because they have so few

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<v Speaker 3>The Associated Press reports this morning that now then ten

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<v Speaker 3>million people have fled Ukraine since the war began. It's

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<v Speaker 3>now up to that number, and of course all the

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<v Speaker 3>battle casualties, and now then the people that they're recruiting,

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<v Speaker 3>they're not recruiting, they're actually grabbing off the streets. And

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<v Speaker 3>when they get to the front, the commanders, the Ukrainian

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<v Speaker 3>commanders are complaining that maybe one in ten actually fight.

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<v Speaker 3>Many of the rest of them either refuse to fight

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<v Speaker 3>or flee as soon as they get there, or unfortunately

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of them die within the first few days

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<v Speaker 3>just because of lack of knowledge and training.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a pretty bleak picture. I'm afraid.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, warm bodies is not just the answer to the

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<v Speaker 1>question he'd have effective fighting forces. I mean, you think about,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, one highly elite you know, like a Navy

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<v Speaker 1>seal team can accomplish because they are such an effective,

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<v Speaker 1>well oiled machine. Those are the highly as trained fighters.

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<v Speaker 1>But grabbing some eighteen year old kid out of a

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<v Speaker 1>bar and he doesn't want to even go fight, not

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<v Speaker 1>only are you facing the challenge of trying to get

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<v Speaker 1>them motivated to do it protect your own country, dammit,

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<v Speaker 1>but learning how to effectively operate a fight, even as

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<v Speaker 1>something as simple as an AK or an M sixteen

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<v Speaker 1>that requires training. You can't just grab one and start

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<v Speaker 1>shooting accurately at a four hundred and five hundred yards

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<v Speaker 1>You can't.

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<v Speaker 3>And you know, there's another another interesting dynamic associated with

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<v Speaker 3>that is that because Russia has more just raw numbers

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<v Speaker 3>of men, they have the luxury.

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<v Speaker 2>Of actually training them up.

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<v Speaker 3>And I actually, for the first time on my show

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<v Speaker 3>this past week, got to talk to, oddly enough, a

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<v Speaker 3>UK volunteer who was fighting for the Russian side and

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<v Speaker 3>was pretty open about how they conduct their side of

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<v Speaker 3>the of the fight. And he said that he spent

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<v Speaker 3>about four months of different kinds of training at different

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<v Speaker 3>locations before he even got into combat the first time,

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<v Speaker 3>and the most common comment from the Ukraine side is

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<v Speaker 3>they get there in a number of days in some cases,

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<v Speaker 3>so the Russians do have time to so that when

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<v Speaker 3>their guys get there, they actually do have some decent training,

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<v Speaker 3>whereas the Ukraine side don't. And you see, every time

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<v Speaker 3>you want to look at this, the comparative analysis just

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<v Speaker 3>goes worse and worse against the Ukraine side, and it's

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<v Speaker 3>a there is no path to them to avoid being

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<v Speaker 3>defeated at this point, and I think it's going to

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<v Speaker 3>take something besides just a wild hope to get into NATO.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, and the exclamation point on all that is the

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<v Speaker 1>Russians do have longer range, more effective weaponry, they're sort

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<v Speaker 1>of keeping it on the back burner, like those supersonic

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<v Speaker 1>hypersonic missiles. Russia has those that the disposal they only

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know if they've necessarily used them yet, but

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<v Speaker 1>it seems like they're keeping their powder dry to some extent.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, they have periodically, but because they've been striking, especially

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<v Speaker 3>deep within Ukraine on the energy system, YEA to keep

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<v Speaker 3>them knockdown. But what's not been reported very much is

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<v Speaker 3>that there's a bit between forty and sixty long range

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<v Speaker 3>drones per day that are being fired throughout the Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 3>and their air defenses are almost incapable now, so most

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<v Speaker 3>of those are getting through.

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<v Speaker 2>It just doesn't make much news, but it continues.

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<v Speaker 3>To just degrade the ability to even fight at the

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<v Speaker 3>front on top of the manpower issue.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, and that provides a nice pivot to get

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<v Speaker 1>back to Israel. You and I've had this conversation before.

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<v Speaker 1>Israel has a finite number of anti surface to air

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<v Speaker 1>anti missile missiles of a variety of different types, but

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<v Speaker 1>they're really bloody expensive. There's a finite number of those,

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<v Speaker 1>and seemingly an infinite number of very inexpensive drones and

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<v Speaker 1>rockets and all the equipment that the various terrorist organizations

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<v Speaker 1>have received from outside sources like Iran. But Israel's doing

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<v Speaker 1>a very effective job and knocking off leadership. I only

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<v Speaker 1>just got another guy and apparently just launched the strike

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<v Speaker 1>on the what the banking industry, right.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, they're just completely dismantling everything in Hesbala, that's up

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<v Speaker 3>in Lebanon where they've been taking that out. I'm not

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<v Speaker 3>sure how effective it is to take out a physical

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<v Speaker 3>bank building, just because most transactions these days are done electronically, right,

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<v Speaker 3>But I mean, I guess if that's where servers are,

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<v Speaker 3>it could certainly have an issue there. I don't have

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of granularity on exactly what was in those

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<v Speaker 3>buildings that they struck, but I do know they're going

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<v Speaker 3>after the financial capabilities, which which is a pretty common

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<v Speaker 3>thing in modern warfare to go after. But there's been

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<v Speaker 3>a couple of strokes actually are one today from Hesbala

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<v Speaker 3>launching a small number of drones, two of which one

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<v Speaker 3>got all the way through the Israeli distance or air defenses,

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<v Speaker 3>didn't even signal any alarms, which is concerning to them

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<v Speaker 3>because they didn't track it coming in and it did

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<v Speaker 3>land and kill a number of its Israeli soldiers inside

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<v Speaker 3>of Israel today, so they've got to try to figure

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<v Speaker 3>out what's going on with their air defense shield. Well,

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<v Speaker 3>it seems to me that flying low and quote unquote

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<v Speaker 3>under the radar, is that still a viable option these days?

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<v Speaker 3>Apparently it is, because whether it's an electronic issue or

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<v Speaker 3>they physically got under the radar is unknown, but that

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<v Speaker 3>certainly did get through.

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<v Speaker 1>So phase next phase for Israel, do you think they're

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<v Speaker 1>still going to plan to launch some sort of strike

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<v Speaker 1>on the Iranians, or where are we on that?

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<v Speaker 3>Based on that leaked intelligence that came out in the US,

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<v Speaker 3>a top secret document was released. But then even without that,

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<v Speaker 3>you had President Biden last Friday was pointedly asked on

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<v Speaker 3>the tarmac I think in Germany if he knew what

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<v Speaker 3>Israel was going to do and when they were going

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<v Speaker 3>to do it. He said yes and yes. Of course

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<v Speaker 3>he refused to say what that was. But by all accounts,

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, you take what was in that intelligence information,

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<v Speaker 3>along with what Biden said, along with what the Israel

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<v Speaker 3>leaders have said, it seems only a matter of time

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<v Speaker 3>before something pretty major is launched by Israel against I Rotten.

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<v Speaker 2>Hmmm.

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<v Speaker 1>I guess the only thing we can do is keep

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<v Speaker 1>our popcorn out because the Israelies seem to me like

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<v Speaker 1>they're gonna do what the Israelis want to do, regardless

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<v Speaker 1>of what Biden wants them to do.

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<v Speaker 2>I think that's a pretty clear statement. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>Daniel Davis always a pleasure. Search for him. You'll find

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<v Speaker 1>Daniel Davis podcast. Just search Daniel Davis Deeve Dive. Always

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<v Speaker 1>enjoy our conversations, as sad and depressing as they may be.

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<v Speaker 1>Got to talk about reality. Daniel.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh, we got to know what's really going on. I

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<v Speaker 2>appreciate it.

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<v Speaker 1>Amen, brother, we'll talk next week. Have a wonderful week.

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<v Speaker 1>My friend eight forty coming up with eight forty one.

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<v Speaker 1>talk about, you can feel free to call in flopen

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<v Speaker 1>the phone lines up five one, three, seven, four, nine, fifty,

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<v Speaker 1>five hundred, eight hundred and eight two three talk pound

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<v Speaker 1>fight fifty on AT and T phone. Stay right here

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<v Speaker 1>at fifty five krs the talk station