Speaker 1: Welcome in to the opening line report, Kelly Stewart Here.
As you can tell, there's some palm trees behind me.
I'm on vacation. We're going to pray for good Wi
Fi and Teddy, you got hands prayers answered yesterday. What's
a better way to start on a hot streak than
to get the brooms out and have a nice sweep
for NFL Sunday, So congratulations to you, Teddy. We're gonna
also get into what it betters learned from yesterday. We're
going to have a myriad of emergency betting alerts. It
looks like just looking at the Odds logic screen headed
into today, so we're gonna get right into it. Monday
Night Football, You've got a client playoff as well as
a free play video.
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, it's the same play you get it for free.
You can come a client and get it for free.
But it's posted right now on my pagewt dot Buzzbacks
last TC. I am betting tonight's game. It's not just
an opinion, So I'll check out the video that's right
here on YouTube, or visit my homepage wt dot buzz
Backslash TC to see who I like tonight, and I've
advised my clients to bet for this year.
Speaker 1: Okay, well, then I'm just gonna interject here and make
it all about myself because I need to know what
to do. I've got four legs closing with the Philadelphia
Eagles from teasers from yesterday. You know, plus eight and
a half, great number in theory. I sat back. I
just did my job. But now some really cheap money
lines for the packers coming up. I've seen minus as
low as minus one fifteen here on the Odds logic screen.
Should I go for the middle with the teaser? Because
the public is so heavy on Philly, it's making me
a little It's making me a little uneasy about thinking,
oh yeah, no worries Philly can keep it within a
touchdown or so.
Speaker 2: So whenever we're talking about hedging, all right, there's one
thing that is the first it's a really the first decision,
that the first thought process that I have. Do I
still like my original bet, If you still like your
original bet, if you still think your original BET's a winner,
then you don't need to do anything, certainly not pre flop,
not before kickoff. After kickoff, you may decide hey's time
to head men, I hedge, but as long as you
still there's nothing worse than turning a winner into a
push because you felt like hedging. So if you'll like
your original bet, hold it now that you're in a
position where you're paying What what's your return on this
on this teaser? Kel?
Speaker 1: Uh? So, I've got four legs pretty close to eight dimes,
So I.
Speaker 2: Bet in terms of are you getting back two to one?
Are you getting six to one? I mean, what what's
your what a No?
Speaker 3: There two late teasers minus one ten.
Speaker 2: So okay, it's.
Speaker 3: Thousand on each one of them.
Speaker 2: So it's not like a parlay scenario where you can
hedge back a little bit to ensure that you lock
in a profit or you know, lock in a not
loss in a situation if you're hedging, your hedging away
your profit. So that's a personal decision. It's based a
lot on how much you have in your bankroll and
how much bankroll management you need to worry about, and
how much you like your original wager.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like it a little bit less.
Speaker 1: I opened up the picket out this morning and saw
almost seventy five percent of the tickets and seventy five
percent of the money line on the Eagles.
Speaker 3: Again, though I feel like I have a good number.
Speaker 1: Maybe I just want to get rid of some of
my position at minus one fifteen there on the Packers,
and hey, we may see pick a minus one one
ten by kickoff. I also have a minus one on
five accounts. So I'm going to sit back and kind
of wait. No, not very happy looking at you. It's
snowing here in New York, Kelly. Sorry, Jeff, but we're
going to get in to what it Betters learned last week. Hey,
morning game, Teddy looked great. I was happy with the results.
Afternoon fave and over, fave and over. Talk to me
about what we saw last week in NFL and how
we're going to carry that over into this week.
Speaker 2: Sure, I mean there was with the headlines from NFL Sunday,
the biggest survivor pick again went down Carolina. The Bills
were third as a survivor. So we're down to out
of the seventeen thousand plus at Circle, we're down to
exactly one thousand going into tonight. We talked about Colts Falcons.
We did something right last week if you listened to us.
We talked about an emergency betting Alert. If you like Indy,
get them right now. At mine five and a half,
it mattered that half point. At six you pushed. At
six and a half you didn't. You took a loss.
So I'm very pleased, and I expected to happen a
couple I think it's happened once already this year. Where
you know, if you turned two wins, sorry, two losses
out of one hundred into pushes, two pushes out of
one hundred in the wins, it makes an enormous difference
to your bankroll. And that's what the bugs you bet
merchant led at betting usher alm about. Maybe one time
in twenty it's gonna matter, But that one time in
twenty is gonna matter a lot when you add them
up over the course of a season. So with Colts Falcons, look,
if you lost betting in the Atlanta on the side,
you need to work on your betting skills because everybody's
supposed to either win or push whichever side they bet
in that ballgame. Not a good result for the house.
Another week at other insane come back, this time the
Texans coming back from the dead against the Jags. We've
had a fair few of those in reason week that
was after Paris Bengals and after Broncos Giants the two
previous weeks. We're getting one every single week. It feels
a game that's just insane, a drunk game as we
used to call them. And of course the interception returned
for touchdown on the last play that really didn't affect
side or total, but it might have affected teaser betters
a little bit, you know, see that. Not to mention
the cardiac kid Bears who came back from the dead.
We saw weather Steam Chicago and the Giants that under
was forty seven got beat down to forty four and
a half landed forty four. The weather Steam won there.
But the three afternoon games you talked about it favorite
and over and all three favorite covered again last night
with the Chargers. That leaves a fair bit of liability
for the sportsbooks right now. When it comes to Monday
Night football. I don't know if tonight's the night I'd
want to be on a particularly public side for Monday Night.
Speaker 1: All right, Teddy, Thursday Night Football, the Patriots get it
done again. My best bet on bet on it was
the Butts, and I knew it was dead in the water.
Speaker 3: Come kick off.
Speaker 1: Luckily I did have the Patriots and a bunch of teasers,
so it wasn't near a painful But Drake may wow
just while New York Jets, on the other hand, they
get their second win of the season.
Speaker 3: This is a lot of points in a divisional game.
Speaker 2: Yeah. That being said, there are things not to like
about the Jets. So with all these every game every week,
I'm gonna be a four sets of numbers. I give
you what I call a look ahead line. These are
the numbers from the Westgate super Book. I think I
wrote them down last Wednesday. So Westgate numbers from the
last week to tell us how much the lines have
changed based on justice last week's result. I'll give you
my powering number for the contest that does not involve situations.
It's only team A, Team B home field. I'll give
you the open numbers from last night, and then we'll
talk about where the line has moved this morning. So
Patriots open look headline ten and a half forty five
and a half against the Jets. My powering number comes
doing the eleven and a half. Last night, the markets
were ten and a half, eleven, eleven and a half
twelve all over the map total forty five. What we've
seen this morning, the markets have con solidated at eleven
and a half. We've seen under money, parently significant under
money forty three and a half. Now the total for
New England and New York. And I considered emergency betting
alert this total down even more. I would not be
shocked to see it go down forty three, forty two
and a half, forty two. But really we already missed
forty fives or forty four, so I'm not convinced it's
going to go down that much more. And I mean, look,
the Jets won a game yesterday where Justin Fields had
forty two net passing yards. That's hard to do. You know,
they had fourteen dropbacks from Justin Fields and those out
of those fourteen dropbacks to pass, they had one play
longer than four yards. Of course, that play was a
path to free Solidood took it to the house. But
when you read the quotes out of the Jets and
again so they had a punt return touchdown, they had
a kick return touchdown in the same ball game yesterday.
And when you hear the quotes from Steve Wilkes talking
about all the young guys. The Jets plan on playing
you know, first year players, second year players. There's like
nine of them that are all expected to get ample
playing time, you know, Steve Wilks. But we can win
with that. They had six sacs yesterday, So the Jets
youth movement has paid dividends. Their offense still struggling. As
for New England, I mean, the NFL is a playmakers league,
all right, and yesterday what they do seventy two yard
touchdown for Williams Henderson, fifty five yard touchdown, Henderson's sixty
nine yard touchdown, Holland's fifty four yard completions, four huge plays.
That was the difference in the ball game. And this
is the Patriots team that's lacked those big play weapons
in every recent season. That's not the case in twenty
to twenty five. That's at least a part of the
reason why when's people talk about their schedule, their schedule
or schedule, well, you know, now they're beating Tampa Bay
and Tampa, they eat Buffalo and Buffalo. It's a Patriots
team who I bet under their season win total, and
I'm gonna lose that bet on Thursday night. That'll be
the first season win that Colts have already cashed. A
one over Pat would be the second over to cash
well before Thanks.
Speaker 1: All right, we're gonna head back to Europe in the
International Series Madrid this time Teddy the Washington Commanders take
on the Miami Dolphins Washington. Yesterday, I was watching Last
Call with Aeron Epstein and John Murray, and John Murray
said Washington was going to be their biggest need. And
here in Aruba, I found a nine and a half
and I felt so sharp. Let me tell you I
did my job. Yeah, well guess what the commander sure
as hell did.
Speaker 2: And the markets are crashing on Washington right now. Make
no mistake about it. You know it's very clear. Look
headline here Washington minus one and a half in Madrid
total forty six. My powering number came pick them. Markets
opened last night Miami two and forty seven and a half.
So no, that's a three and a half point move,
not injury related, just this is what Washington did this week.
This is what Miami did this week. Boom, three and
a half point move that is really significant, and the
twos are mostly gone. I'm seeing two and a halfs
out there for my Miami forty seven and a half.
The current total hasn't really moved a whole lot. Marcus
mariotat nine point seven yards per pass attempt, but you
can't win games with a backup quarterback when you're allowing
two twenty six on the ground. Remember this defense, they
put a ton of resource to the defense in the offseason,
you know, big free agent dollars. It is the oldest
team in the league. In the last four weeks, commanders
thirty first in the NFL and yards allowed thirty first
in the NFL and points allowed to give up eight
point eight yards per play. When Jared Goff and the
starters were on the field in that ballgame and we
saw you know, Darren Payne I get ejected. There's frustration
for Washington right now, and certainly when you think about
a team that was expected to compete. You know, last
year they made the NFC Champions Game. They're expected to
compete for big things this year. Now they're three and seven,
playing with the backup quarterback going to Madrid for a week.
The markets are saying that warrants a three and a
half point move over what we thought this team was
going to be, especially with Miami showing up yesterday. You know,
they're two and one straight up the last three games.
They haven't quit on their coach. You know, they haven't
quit on their season. Mike McDaniel. I think it's pretty
obvious from the play they didn't believe their season was over.
That's difficult to do and everyone's talking about you and
everyone's talking about this season being over. That being said,
they lost seven in a row to Buffalo. Felt like
yesterday's game was circled for Miami. You know the quote,
every time you win in the NFL, that's special. But
given the times we played Buffalo in the past and
have gotten close and have gotten blown out, I think
this one definitely makes it that much more special that
it was against Buffalo. They've had our number four years.
That's a two quote, which tells me that was the
game they were looking for, which means laying a price
in Madrid with a team like Miami coming off a win.
I don't know if I'm gonna get there.
Speaker 3: I'll leave it at that, all right, Teddy.
Speaker 1: I was just looking on x to see if Jackson
Dart was going to be available for this one. The
Packers played tonight. Now they're a sizeable road favorite at
the New York Giants, who had hey multiple opportunities to
beat the Bears yesterday. Russell Wilson, though I knew it
was over when I saw number three in the game.
Speaker 2: So did you find anything on dark because I didn't
see anything. It's still early for what we're gonna know
about Jackson Dart. Obviously, Jackson Dart status will affect the
point spread, but maybe not as much as you think
the dif between Dart and Russell Wilson a point. Maybe
you know I interned to the markets, maybe a little
bit more, but I wouldn't. I would expect I don't
see a significant drop off in the petty markets. Then,
of course it's going to depend on what green Bay
looks like tonight. Look headline here packers minus seven total
of forty six my powering numbers seven and a half
for green Bay. Last night at the open there were
seven and a halfs eight and eight and a half
total forty four and a half and total still sitting
at forty four and a half right now. The markets
still have mostly it's mostly eight and a halfs out
there for green Bay. And make this, let me make
it really clear. The Packers are going to be on
the road off a Monday night football game against Philly.
It's a near guaranteed flat spot if they win. The
Packers that minus six are higher. This year. They lost
straight up to Carolina, they lost straight to Cleveland. They
failed to cover against Arizona, they failed to cover against Cincinnati,
they failed to cover against Dallas. That's zero to five
ats in this point spread range. They have consistently played
down to the level of competition. So Green Bay is
not likely to be on my short list. Win or
lose tonight. Obviously, Jackson Dart hurt and they had a
seventeen to ten lead when Russell Wilson came in the ballgame.
Russell Wilson got him down to the one yard line
and then couldn't put it in. You know, Brian, the
ball We have confidence in Russ, but you never want
to see any of your guys going down. And of
course the Giants still can't stop the run. One hundred
and seventy one yards in the ground six point one
yards per carry. Now they're a two and eight team.
They've lost four in a row, and let's not forget
they've led by double Digits against Dallas, New Orleans, Denver, Chicago,
and they lost all four of those games, you know,
yesterday and they were up by ten minutes with less
than five minutes to play and found a way to
lose it to you know, give him a touchdown, go
three and out, shank a punt and then allow another
game when he touchdown. Certainly the Giants right now, and
again we'll see what happens with Dart this week. But
the Giants are a team who is playing competitively but
still finding ways to lose.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that is frustrating to have teams like that, especially
from a point spreads perspective. Their Teddy next one up
is going to be the Bucks headed to Buffalo.
Speaker 3: Both teams just absolutely got worked yesterday.
Speaker 1: Like I said, I knew four kickoff Bucks was going
to be a bad bet, and I was going to
get off of it in some former fashion or another.
But the Bills was really just the shocker, not only
from a survivor standpoint, but just flat out I kept thinking,
all right, here come the Bills. One touchdown and the
rest of the fourth quarter, I was sitting around all
these Bills fans here and rub A going yeah, what
was that John they were in awe.
Speaker 2: It was the true no show for Buffalo. I'll talk
about in just a second. Look headline here, Bill's minus
six total fifty and a half. My powering number, Bills
minus four and a half. The markets open five and
a half fifty and a half last night, and yeah,
we got to do it right now. Our first emergency
betting alert of the show. I'm there, find a fifty
right now. I'm seeing forty nine and a half's out there.
I'm seeing forty nine starting to pop. It looks to
me like this total is gonna get beat down. And
I'm not surprised what you consider a Tampa playing in
Buffalo in November when you think about what the Bills
defense did and when they allow one hundred ninety seven
yards to six point two yards per carry yesterday. Again,
if you like this total under, you can get fifty
right now. I'm not convinced that's going to be there
an hour, two hours, two days from now. So unders
are emerging. Ben alert for Buffalo and Tampa. Baker Mayfield
after the loss yesterday. Quote offensively, I'm hoping our guys
do get pissed off about this. This in the end
of our season. I know that we're still a very
important games ahead of us, but games like this, when
you don't win them, it should sting, It should really hurt.
He said they were lacking in killer instinct yesterday. I
talked a minute ago about the Patriots explosive plays for
them of fifty yards plus. Yesterday, well they all came
up against Tampa's defense. So you know, worth noting the
Bucks in twenty twenty four, they had a four game
mid season losing streak. In twenty twenty three, they had
a four game mid season losing streak. It was a
straight up. Now what happened in the end. They won
the division in both of those years, one and a
half game lead over Carolina. Right now after yesterday's loss,
worth only, they played the Panthers Week sixteen and week eighteen.
So for all the urgency for the Bucks, I don't
know there is that much urgency for the Bucks necessarily.
That's for Buffalo we talked about. That was a true
no show game. You know, they didn't score a point
till the fourth quarter. Huge letdown off that Kansas City
win against the team that they've owned. They won the
previous seven meetings against Miami. They just beat their our
tribal or their playoff rival in Kansas City, and they
came out and played. They laid an eight. You know,
Josh Allen after the game quote, they wanted it obviously
a little bit more than us. I've got to be better.
We got to be better than actually game in the
past game blah blah blah. Anytime it turned it all
over three times. It's the recipe for disasters. But to
hear the the starting quarterback say yeah, they wanted it
more than us, you don't hear that quote every week.
The last time the Bill's lost, they lost the Pats
at home on Monday Sunday Night football. They lost again
the next week at Atlanta. We'll see if they can
prevent one loss returney into two. Here. Tampa is going
to be every bit as hungry as they are. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I already have the Bucks written down as my spot
to look forward it back. That's usually how it works
for me, Teddy. I bet on a team they lay
an egg, and then I should run back the next week.
Speaking of laying an egg, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Our producer
Dan told me he fell asleep during the game last night.
They take on their divisional rival and the Cincinnati Bengals
this week. Break down this one for me because I
don't know what to make of the Steelers here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wasn't fall asleep.
Speaker 3: I was.
Speaker 2: I was convinced that the Chargers were going to find
a way to blow it. And then Dicker missed that
field goal and I'm like, oh boy, here we go.
We're gonna sweat. But the Pittsburgh ended up or the
Chargers ended up closing out my sweep yester, which was
very nice for the clients and I. And by the way, guys,
if you like this type of content, please give us
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Cincinnati and Pittsburgh look headline Steelers minus six total of
fifty my powering numbers Steelers minus five markets last night
and there was a mix of five and five and
a half's at fifty, although it's not a true proper
market because Pittchwrick was playing at the time. And that's
basically what we're seeing right now. Five and a half
fifty slash fifty and a half for Pittsburgh and Cincy.
And certainly, I mean it's a Bengals team that truly
found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of
victory before their bye week. If you remember, they got
to recover the on site kick rally back from two
touchdowns down to beat Chicago, except for that, they left
Chicago with like thirty seconds and that was enough against
Cincinnati's defense forty seven to forty two. They lost that
game and went on by Zach Taylor afterwards. It's sick.
It's sick to lose like that. It's what happens. So
we got to own it. And again they became the
first team in fifty nine years, in fifty nine years
to score thirty eight points or more in back to
back games and lose them both. And boy, it felt
like there was some pretty the locker room was. Here's
a quote for Chase Brown. We put the ball on
the end zone and go up in the lead to
give the game, finish the f and game. Just end
it like that's it. That's what we need to do.
Just end the f and game. Make them give us
the ball back. Let's go to twenty two victories. Let's
end the game. That's how I feel. That's on your
defense under the bus, my friends. Now, best performance of
Flacco was eighteen year NFL career. Maybe he's rested now,
has a chance to learn the offense a little bit
better rushing. It's in that ball game. By the way,
Chicago two eighty three, Sincy forty six. As for Pittsburgh,
Aaron Rodgers turns forty two next month. He sure looked
at last night. I'll leave it at that.
Speaker 3: Shots fired, Teddy cover, shots fired.
Speaker 2: So every quarterbacks old. Eventually, Warren Moon got old, Eventually
Tom Brady got old. Eventually, you know, Peyton Manning got
all that last year where Manning was you know, he
was a corpse. Yeah, I thought the team around him
was unbelievable. The defense around was unbelievable.
Speaker 3: That is exactly what that was all right. Let's keep
on moving this one along. Houston taking on at Tennessee.
Speaker 1: Teddy, what do you look for when teams won in
such an insane fashion like the Houston Texasan's Like you said,
they were dead on arrival and were able to somehow
win that football game.
Speaker 2: So Denver rally from thirty three down against the Giants
or thirty two down against the Giant and managed to
win again. The next week we saw Chicago and that
crazy win against Cincinnati that I just talked about, rally
to win again the next week. I wouldn't put you know, momentum.
Momentum is a fickle mistress. I'll leave it at that.
You know sometimes, oh, yes they got momentum. Yes, well,
we'll see how much momentum Miami and Miami has when
they traveled to Madrid this week. You know, to me,
that's the ultimate. One team has momentum, one team doesn't.
I tend to think that momentum is overrated in the
betting markets. Momentum last as long as your team plays well.
That being said, Houston look headline minus seven and a half.
Total it was thirty seven and a half and thirty
eight and a halfs out there for the total for
the Texans and the Titans. My paradery number came eight.
The markets opened seven seven and a half thirty eight
last night. He was right between the thirty seven and
a half and thirty eight and a half. We are
seeing over money coming in on this one. Fairly significant
over money. Enough over money right now to say, damn,
let's light up another burgon of non emergency betting alert
over right now. Okay, Houston, Tennessee, you can still find
thirty eight and a half out there. There are thirty
nine's out there. Looks like it's going to forty plus.
So Texans flew over the total yesterday. The Titans have
cost you know, four straight losses since their only win
of the season in that miracle game against Arizona and
coming off of bye you know again, they were twenty
seven to twenty they lost to the Charges. For the bye,
they had ten first downs two and six yar at
the total offense, they had a pick six and a
punt return touchdown and still lost by a TD. But
the markets expect Tennessee rookie QB extra tiny repair. They
expect this offense to be a little bit better with
extra you know, with that extra week off, you tend
to see that learning curve for the rookie QBS in general,
you like them off. A bye for the Texans, I mean,
you know, they trailed twenty nine to ten in the
fourth quarter. But Nico Collins, he made Davis Mills look
real good. Yesterday Houston has finished four or five in
the red zone, ten to fifteen on third downs, yards
per play edge six point zero to three point nine,
game by more than two yards per play. You know,
Will Anderson keep showing up, keep fighting, never quit. Daniell Hunter,
who had a monster game, we just locked in. I
felt we had the feeling of the whole game. We
were gonna come out on top. Tamiko Ryans, I look
at the game as I look at life. Bad things
are gonna happen. Do you hang your head and go
run and hide? Do you quit? Do you give up? No?
You gotta keep punching in life and football, you gotta
keep punching. And that's what this game showed today. Key
to the entire game was no one blinked. So that
makes Houston a team I were interested in these pick
um type games. I don't know if that makes Houston
a good favorite in the minus seven s last minus
seven and a half range worth noting. I mean the
seven and a half look like this is split line
right now. I think that the books that cater to
recreational betters may have seven and a halfs all week.
The sharp books don't anymore.
Speaker 1: For what that's worth, all right, that is definitely worth something,
because I was already considering teasing the Texans shocker. I
know everybody is surprised. Bear's Vikings, Teddy, the Vikings were
a stinker of a pick by me yesterday.
Speaker 3: I just was not impressed with them, especially at home.
Speaker 1: Was that more of an indication that it was the
Vikings or maybe we'll talk about the Ravens here in
just a few minutes.
Speaker 2: So it's funny because I do powerings for every team
every week, and I adjust my numbers and I think
about them, you know, I do. There's no fall, no
formula for me. Something that I think about and I
look at some stats, I look at some track record
and you know, gang logs and all that kind of stuff,
and I spend time. And the Minnesota Vikings powering number
in particular was the one and every week there's one
or two that I'm like, I really think about for
a little while in Minnesota, Minnesota, where I'm not a
hardtent commont. My number of Minnesota's right that you know.
I ended up splitting the difference between the Vikings. I'm
not sure how good the Vikings are. I don't know
if they're sure how good they are right now. The
team I had a different most difficulty with in creating
a pr number. Look headline Vikings minus three forty six
and a half my powering number. Again, I split the
difference and put it in the middle of where I
was thinking. Ended up with Minnesota minus two. The markets
opened three with some two and a half last night
total of forty six, and look what we're seeing today,
threes two and a half. The markets hadn't decided which
is better for this one. Total has been bet up
like crazy, forty eight forty eight and a half. I
had a Mercy Benning lard, but I think it's gone
already once here on the wrong side of forty eight.
That's one that if you didn't get it early, you
didn't get it because Chicago is that dead nuts over team.
The markets realized that even though yesterday's game finished with
forty four points. In the conditions, you have one hundred
and seventy one rushing yards at six point one yards
per carry and allowed, or they gained one hundred and
seventy one hours yards, they allowed one hundred and sixty
nine rushing yards at five point six yards per carry.
And when you can't stop the run, they're gonna bet
the over. That being said, for the last six games,
Caleb Williams has led them to come from behind, wins
late in the fourth quarters, to beat Vegas, to beat Washington,
They beat Sincy last week, they beat the Jet Giants
this week. You know, quote it does build confidence. You know,
doesn't matter where a deficit we're at, It doesn't matter
how much we're up, doesn't matter what happened throughout the game.
We came through as a team. That's what we did today.
Ben Johnson quote, they have his belief that we're gonna
find a way in the fourth quarter, invided at somewhat close,
we're gonna find a way to come on top of
this thing. It's weekend and week out that they're proving that. CJ.
Gardner Johnson quote, we got some ballers. We're ready to
make a push. Certainly a confident team right now. And
for Minnesota, you know, bizarre game plan in a sense
that they're not going to win. With JJ McCarthy dropping
back forty three times and being the team's leading rusher
and the running back combining for just thirteen carries. That's
not the recipe for success. You know, eight fall start
penalties at home. That's on the quarterback. That's on the
offense not being in sync with one another. They outgained
Baltimore by a yard one point one yards would play,
but you made it three turnovers if defense didn't force
any They got stopped three times on fourth down. And
JJ McCarthy's not very good right now. I don't know
what to do with Minnesota. Probably pass them and pass
on Vikings game until I have a better read on
this team.
Speaker 1: Very fair point. A couple of teams that I also
don't know what to do with. Here, you've got the
Carolina Panthers taken on the Atlanta Falcons. I was heavy
on the Carolina Panthers coming into the season. I thought
this was a year they could take a step forward.
I thought they had a shot to win their division.
Then they go into Lamba kind of shock. Everybody has
a double digit favorite and then lay an egg at
home to the New Orleans Saints.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so look aat line here, Atlanta three and a
half total forty four and a half. My powering number,
which does not factor into the situation. This is a
very negative situation for Atlanta. My powering number has the
Falcons five in this ball game. The markets opened three
and a half slash four last night. Total forty two
and a half slash forty three. I'm looking at my
odds logic live on screen right now. Markets is mostly
three and a half. There's still a couple of fours,
but it's mostly three and a half total forty two
and a half for this ball game. So we've seen
under money and we've seen the market settle with Atlanta
three and a half. And given the situation, I mean,
I get it. You know, they're on a four game
losing streak.
Speaker 3: No buy.
Speaker 2: After a tip to Germany and an overtime loss, they're
three and six. The last two games they've lost on
a missed extra point and then overtime. They've gone three
of twenty nine on third down conversions over the last
three games. You know, they forced two turnovers against the India,
they got two fourth down stops, the Colts missed their
two point conversion try the Falcons made there. They had
the Colts third and twenty one on the final driver
regulation and they still found a way to lose the game.
Even with all of that. You know, in overtime you've
got a Colts penalty to get them started, but that
was it. Penis couldn't move them, and you're not gonna
give win many NFL games allowing three hundred and twenty
three rushing yards or given up forty minutes of possession.
Raheem Marris, we had plenty of opportunities to win it.
We just got to find a way to get better.
Whether it's stopping the run, whether it's covering kicks better,
returning to the ball better, converting on third down, all
the things that kind of hurt us today. That in
my mind not an inspiring quote. I'm not Raheem Morris
fan when it comes to NFL head coaches. That being said,
I know what Carolina is. Caroline is a garbage team,
all right. We talked about him on bet on It
last week. As a team we wanted to sell in
the stock watch section. And Bryce Young is playing like
justin fields. Let's call it how it is, right. He
has one game all year with two hundred plus passing yards.
Last three games for Bryce Young all in the five
yards per pass, the range that's below backups. He's had
at least one reception four times the last five games.
Bryce Young mobile dual threat QB.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 2: He had forty rushing yards week one. Since Week one
is a total of thirty eight rushing yards. Bryce Young's
longest pass of the year forty yards, all right, and
he was lucky yesterday he had a roughing the passer
penalty wiped out an interception. There were two early tip
passes that could have been picked as well. You know
Rico Daudl two point yards and two point nine yards
per carrier. They can't run, they can't win. For the
last four weeks thirteen points nine point, sixteen points, seven points.
This offense isn't working. Ted McMillan, the rookie is the
only receiver with two hundred yards through ten games. That
means no one else in the team is everything twenty
receiving yards per game. Brice Young after the contest quote,
we know we're better than that. As a team, I
want to get so many opportunities in this league and
in life. I want to get so many opportunities. Dave
Canalis quote, we didn't play our best version. We didn't
play our vision of football. That's not us. We can't
have that camping up big plays and turn the ball over.
Office has to be more opportunistic. Blah blah, blah blah blah.
Carolina not a team I'm excited about. Not a team
I'm excited about in this one. But spot wise, I
do worry about Atlanta bouncing back. A pretty rough, pretty
rough couple of.
Speaker 1: Weeks, all right, A couple of interesting weeks, to say
the least for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Right, got lucky to
get out of Las Vegas alive, showing got out of
Houston alive but didn't. And we mentioned the Steelers Chargers
game last night, Saddy. It was a news fat and
Steelers didn't play well, but there was nothing really impressive
outside of a couple of long passes and a couple
of rushes from Justin Herbert that said that, I think
the Chargers should be warranted as road favorites.
Speaker 2: Here look aheadline anywhere were one and a half, there
were two. There were two and a halfs for the Chargers.
Total forty four and a half my powering number. And
I thought there was lots to like about the Chargers
last night as La minus three. That's my powery number.
The market's open one and a half and forty four
last night. And what are we seeing right now? We're
seeing two and a half with juice and threes out there.
That tells us one thing and one thing only. Damn
light it up? Do you want to frick? Now? This
line's going to three. It's thirty there at the many books,
and if you haven't, if you don't get it again,
it's not like I know it's going to hold there,
but it's sure going there. The Chargers from a defensive
standpoint were brilliant in yesterday's bag. And that's the strength
of this Chargers team is on the defense side of
the football. The other thing we like about the Chargers
is justin Herbert, who is a leader and a gutty player,
and every quote out of the locker room as we
believe in this guy, and this guy's leading us to victory.
The opposite of the quotes that we're seeing from Aaron
Rodgers at this stage of his career. So and that's
why that's the only reason I had the Chargers last time.
I'm like, I believe in this defense, I believe in
this quarterback. And that's two things to like about LA.
That being said, west Coast team traveling east for an
early start game, there's always concerns about that. And the Jags,
I mean, they're like twenty nine to ten going to
the fourth. They missed the two point conversion that ended
up loving very large. Trevor Lawrence twenty eight dropbacks, one
hundred and nineteen total yards. He was sacked five times.
Jakobe Meyer, they got him on Tuesday from the Raiders.
He ended up there being their leading receiver. You know,
Liam Cohen looked pretty frustrated after the game. His quotes
were really frustrated. You got a nineteen point lead. Candelt too,
that's disappointing. That's really disappointing. Aainst the divisional opponent on
the road, where he controlling the game for the majority
of it, with all three phases having an impact. It's
worth noting since they beat Kansas City thanks to the
nine nine yard pick six and Week five they have
one win that came in overtime against the Raiders when
the Raiders went for two. Markets are saying the Jags
aren't a good team, and I don't disagree with that.
You know, I think there's a class difference between these
two squads. And again, if you like La bet him
now at minus two and a half. Don't wait till
it's minus three later in the week.
Speaker 3: All right, let's stay in LA.
Speaker 1: We're gonna go the Seattle Seahawks taking on their divisional
rival to La Rams Teddy.
Speaker 3: You know, we keep hearing about Drake may we keep
hearing about Baker Mayfield.
Speaker 1: I think Samdernoald is getting a little bit of rumblings,
but he's so flying under the radar. I think he
is playing out of his mind there in Seattle, and
this Seahawks team, they're just I'm speechless.
Speaker 3: Every time I bet against him, I'm going, why the
hell did.
Speaker 2: I do that? Yep? I have a you know, I
have a bet against the Seahawks and my season wins.
And on paper, this team was gonna get thrashed this
year and that has not been the case. Nothing more
in press then what their offsive line is done. They've
won four times this year by two touchdowns or more.
They have one hundred plus one hundred and three point
differential that's the second best in the NFL. Yesterday they
won twenty two points despite three turnovers, two of which
set up Arizona touchdowns. And again, games like yesterday's where
there's two early defensive scores, they are up thirty five
nothing by midway through the second. The box score doesn't
tell you much. Most of the game was garbage time. Still,
you got one hundred ninety eight yards on the ground
in that contest. Look head line here, Rams minus two
and a half forty eight my powering number RAMS minus two.
Markets open two and a half forty eight and a
half last night, and I'm seeing two and a half
two and a halfs for this one. Now. I'm not
seeing many threes. I'm not convinced it's gonna get to three.
If it does get to three, I think we'll see
Seattle money at three. This is one of those two
point seventy five you know where you're either gonna see
three with Jews or you know, three even money or
two and a half with juice all week, but I
would not I was debating it's the emergency betting alert.
You want the Rams get them in at two and
a half. I don't think it's going to hold the
three if it gets there. That being said, there's a
lot to like about the Rams too. You know, they
score touchdowns six of their first eight drives of the game.
Against San Francisco yesterday, Matthew Stafford said an NFL record
third straight game with at least four touchdown passes and
no picks. Quote. I was having a good time. I
lose my mind when we score touchdowns. You know, he
leads the league with twenty five touchdown passes. He's thrown
twenty touchdowns with no interceptions over the last six games.
Sean McVay, Stafford has just been total command. It's a
continuation of a guy who really works his tail off
throughout the course of the week. You know, it looks
like the game is really in slow motion to him
right now. Those are bet on quote. Although DeVante Adams
did leave the gayesterday the game with an injury check
his status, he was hoping it wasn't going to force
him to miss any time.
Speaker 3: Teddy last Sunday, I was touting the Cardinals and I
said no, Kyler Murray, no problem.
Speaker 1: That was until this week where Jacoby Brissett got two
sack fumbles for a touchdown against him, and I thought,
oh boy, they miss Kyler. Now San Francisco didn't look
much better against the Rams.
Speaker 3: Now they play each other.
Speaker 2: Look headline, san Fran minus won forty seven and a half.
My powering number san fran minus one and a half.
The markets opened last night san fran minus two and
a half slash minus three. And we're pretty much seeing
mostly two and a halfs out I'm sorry, mostly threes
out there. There are still a couple of two and
a halfs available. But the forty nine, I mean, for
as bad as Arizona is, the four nine injury report
is disgusting. On the defense side of the football, all right, again,
they give a touchdown six of the Rams first eight
drives yesterday. George Kittle said last week, he said the
Niners offense gonna quote need to score a lot of
points for the team remaining posting contention because of all
the defensive injuries. Kyle Shanahan quote, I'm never gonna put
it on one side of the ball, but obviously we
are wounded at defense. Got more guys down over there.
That does give the other side a bit more of
an advantage. You know, obviously Nick Bosa is out, Fred
warners out. They just lost their first round rookie Michael
Williams to a season ending injury. They didn't make any
additions at the trading deadline, you know, Shanahan quote, we
knew it was gonna be a big challenge going into LA.
We knew how good they are. We thought we could
slow them down. We obviously didn't do that very well.
So you know, there's a decent chance you could see
brock perty back this week. He's been active for six
straight games. Mac Jones was fine yesterday. I don't blame
the loss on mac Jones. It's a forty nine ers
defense that's a problem right now. And the markets are
saying Arizona's offense is even worse. You know, talk about
pat potlit momentum, how about positive mentum? Arizona just beat
Monday night football win in Dallas. Oh no momentum there,
thirty five nothing again midway through the second quarter. Three
touchdowns on defense, two touchdowns they give up on offense.
Back to Kyler Murray stick with Brissette. It really does
not feel like it's gonna end well in Arizona. Right now,
nothing feels right for the Cardinals, and I would not
be surprised. Again. I'm not going to talk anyone out
of the laying two and a half with the forty
nine ers right now. A couple of books still have
that number available.
Speaker 1: All right, back to being sizable front runners to win
the AFC North. The Baltimore Ravens are going to take off,
take on, excuse me, a divisional opponent in the Cleveland Browns. Teddy,
talk to me about this Ravens team because Ariel Epstein's
sitting right next to me, and she needs to know
if she should get her hopes up or not.
Speaker 2: Look at Lyne Baltimore minus seven and a half forty
one and a half, my powering number, Baltimore minus nine.
The market's open eight and a half forty one and
a half last night, and that's basically what we're seeing today.
There are some forty one's out there, but mostly eight
and a half forty one and a half. So the
markets haven't done a whole lot with this game just yet.
We got a fire. It's an even the cornior's fault, right,
We've got a fire Zach orr Well. After allowing more
than thirty five points a game over the first fire,
the Ravens have now given up fifteen points or less
fifteen points per game in their last four. They just
help Justin Jefferson to four receptions for thirty seven yards
on twelve targets. They forced six turnovers over the last
two games. You know, remember they have four takeaways in
the first seven games. It looks like Zach orrz doing
something right. Linebacker Kyle van Noyt quote, we still have
a lot of work to do, a lot of games left.
We're enjoying the process of getting better, and I don't
think we're taking what we're doing lightly. Kyle Hamilton, the
Pro Bowl safety quote, we're starting to hit our stride.
It's not a surprise to us. We're playing to our
potential now and that's got to be sustained. And of course,
three game winning streak for Baltimore. Lamar Jackson one hundred
career starts. Number of quarterbacks that have more wins than
Lamar Jackson through one hundred career starts Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady,
Roger Staubach. Those are not guys that are bad to
be in the same breath with and maybe the best
quote of the weekend. I love the quote from quarterback
Marlon Humphrey quote talking about the Ravens defense yesterday. Quote,
that's been a big key the mind shifts, the mindset
shift of even though we have Lamar Jackson, let's give
him a smoke break, let's give him an off he
bailed it out so many times. How about we do it.
Defense obviously made big plays yesterday. The offense got out
game by more than a full yard per play. As
for Cleveland, they were able to find a way to
lose a game that Justin Fields had forty two net
passing yards on fourteen dropbacks. You know, Judy Fannin Judkins,
I don't have weapons. They got above seventeen. Again, they
had a twenty three to twelve first down edge, but
they allowed a kick return touchdown and a putt return touchdown.
You know after the game, Kevin Stefanski, is he gonna
go to Shdor Sanders, No, he's not.
Speaker 3: Quote.
Speaker 2: This is a young player and we're always going to
try to get one game better. In these type of things,
we have to play better as an offense. Miles Garrett
quote frustration is frustration another locker room where there's offensive
defensive not on the same page. Quote frustrations, frustration. You
try your best not to point fingers. You just got
to go out and clean up what you can. We've
just got to be better. That's his way of throwing case.
He's flowing as the offense under the bus. The defense
has played much better than the offense. All see some law.
Speaker 1: All right, we got almost three thousand of you guys
watching us live here on the wager Talk YouTube channel
as well as social media, so shout out to you,
and special shout out to our insiders wt dot Buzz,
Backslash insiders. To join just two dollars and ninety nine
cents a month gets you lots of early access to
things like bat on It the steam room. We've got
some more special things for those insiders in store as well. Teddy,
really quickly before we hit these last few games. You
are fresh off a Sunday sweep. I am very jealous.
Let's hear what you got going on for this week
in the NFL.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think since week four, since I had a
Sunday sweep, so I was I was ready for it.
I was due and we got the fourth quarters worked
out very nicely, and yesterday's contest. I'm in play for
Monday Night Football tonight. Don't buy it, you can get
it for free. Just look at the video on my
homepage WT dot Buzz, backslash TC. I do have a
single NBA Best bet available for tonight, number one at
wager Talk and NBA profits since twenty twenty two, out
more than two hundred and twenty units during that span.
I may add an additional NBA play after the show
is over, but I wanted to lock in for the
one in early start actors, So again, check out the
homepage WT dot buzz, backslash TC and thank you so
much for taking time out of your day to hang
out with Kelly and I right here on Monday morning.
We appreciate it.
Speaker 1: I know I'm running along, but it's my host chair,
so I'm going to ask the questions I want to ask,
and I want to know why the Denver Broncos are
three and a half point underdogs here at home, Daddy.
This is one of the best teams we've seen out
of Denver in a very long time, but Kansas City
continues to be power rated at such a high level.
Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about it. Look aheadline chiefs minus three
forty five and a half. My powering numbers chiefs minus
two and a half. So my powering number agrees with
your assessment. Markets open Casey minus four three and a
half last night as well, total forty four and a half,
and the three and a half have mostly been bought up.
Now it's Casey minus four, So it's certainly worth noting
Andy Reid off all lost to the Bills and a
bye week. If the season ended today, Kansas City loses
the tiebreaker to Jacksonville, the number seven seed, and they
don't make the playoffs. So this urgency for Kansas City
right now. And Andy Reid twenty two and four off
a bye week, thirteen and one at Philadelphia nine to
three in Kansas City. But I believe he's the most
successful coach in NFL history off of bye so that's
certainly factored into this number. And the markets are not
respecting Denver all right. They've won five times this season
when they've lost a turner of battle. They're eight and
two this year, but they've trailed in all but one games,
all right, they were able to win the game last
week they had more penalties eleven than first downs. They
had seven to three and outs in thirteen possessions. But
people are forgetting the Denver defense man. That defense didn't
allow a first down for seven straight Raiders possessions. Keep
up with a turner, round downs and interception, a block punt,
you know, bo Nicks, we gotta do better at some
points ain't gonna be enough. We got to score more.
We got to find some juice somewhere. And that concern
about Denver statistical profile is absolutely the reason and the
situation here for Kansas City is why we're seeing FoST
for this game, not three, it's not two and a half,
and why my powering number feels short. But there are
two schools of thought, you know. The other school of
thought here also is Denver. You know, what are they
won eight straight in a row or no, they won
They're eight and two, the only team sit at eight
and two going to the game, the longest winning streak
in a decade. They've won ten in a row at home.
And then certainly a school of thought out there that, yeah,
you know, this team's not gonna win every game forever.
Casey certainly a step up in class. Casey, hungry and
focused Broncos are not in my short list this week.
Speaker 3: Alright, a game that I'm very excited for next Sunday.
Speaker 1: We've got the Lions taken on the Philadelphia Eagles, but
they got to get past the Packers tonight.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, the Eagles wi play the Lions, whether they
get past the Packers or not, I'm pretty sure I hope.
So minus one and a half forty eight and a
half was look my powering number, minus one and a half.
The markets open one and a half and forty nine
last night and we're seeing one and a half and
forty nine this morning. This line's not gonna move at
all until we see what happens on Monday Night football.
A Philly will be six and three off a loss,
seven to two off a win. That's for the Lions.
You know, we saw Jared Goff three and twenty passing yard,
three touchdowns, no picks. They toured in twenty six rushing
yards to six point eight yards per carry. They didn't
forget the playoff loss. They were didn't play for revenge
to Washington. They bit some knee caps again, eight point
eight yards per play when the offense was on the
phone that started on the field forty four points. Dan
Campbell relieved offensive play calling duties from the offing corneer
John Morton, and Campbell called the great game yesterday. But
this line is only gonna move based on what we
see tonight. When how Philadelphia looks, they look good, we'll
see Eagles money. They look bad, We'll see Lions money.
Speaker 3: Yeah. I may be putting the Lions in a few teasers.
Totals a little high for me though.
Speaker 1: Monday Night football, Teddy, and we're gonna take us home
into Wader Talk today with Andy Lang up next the Raiders,
just that team I can continue not to want to
back here your thoughts on Monday night football.
Speaker 2: Yeah, just real quick, I want to thank all you
guys for watching. If you like this type of analysis,
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w dot buzz backslash tc look headline for Dallas and
the Las Vegas rate the Cowboys three and a half
point favorites total of fifty and a half. My powery
number came Dallas minus four for this ball game. Markets
opened three and a half three slash three and a
half last night and we don't have not see any
threes out there now. I'm not seeing many threes out
there right now, mostly three and a half's this morning,
total sitting at fifty slash fifty and a half. I
would not be surprised to see some under money come in,
but I haven't seen any signs of it yet, so
I'm not gonna emergency betting alert this. But I mean
the Cowboys. You know, when you pick up Quinn Williams,
that makes a difference on your defense. It should. They
rank thirty first in the NFL and yards end points
per game in theory off of buy that defense should
be a little bit better after what happened against Arizona
and the previous game they got lit up as well.
They'll have as many fans at Allegian as the Raiders will,
maybe more. You know, three to five and one team
was a buyer at the trade deadline, which you know
tells us they're not throwing the towel in on their season.
As for the Raiders, I mean, everything's gone wrong for
the Raiders this year. You know, found another way to
lose a game that they could have won Gino Smith
because he used to be pretty often. They've been held
under ten points four times this season. They've been held
a fewer than thirty points and twenty nine sigular games.
Let's call it how it is. Chip Kelly's offense has
been an absolute disaster at all. They've just filed a
special team coordinator after Carson missed a field goal that
they you know, that would have tied the game and
they never got the ball back after that. And Carlson
had a field goal attempt blocked that would have won
a game against the Bears, and he had an extra
point that got missed in the one point loss against Jacksonville.
You know, so it's a Raiders team. It's hard to
like anything that's that's going on with the Raiders right now.
I'm surprised a little bit the Marcus haven't crashed on
them more. But it's not like the marks are excited
about the three five and one Cowboys right here coming
off their own national TV debacle. That being said, Raiders
ain't taking money. Cowboys the only team has a chance
state money. If you like Dallas again, you can find
a minus three right now. I'm not convinced that'll be
available for much longer. There's not enough of them out
there for me to say run and hurry because there's
you know, there's one or two books that have the
minus threes. Everyone else already at minus three and a half.
Speaker 1: All right, Thank you to Teddy Covers for all of
his insight in to NFL Week eleven.
Speaker 3: We made it.
Speaker 1: See you guys again here next week opening line report.
No palm tree behind me then, apologies again. Shout out
to all of you guys, including our wager Talk insiders.
Speaker 3: We got wager Talk today with Andy Lange up next