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Speaker 1: The rate of coming that The problem is is that

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when you look at like the last few times that

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this has happened after that first rake is when we've

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seen a significant downside in the stock market in general.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, where you

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get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to

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thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot

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com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival

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Network now more than.

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Speaker 3: Ever, and welcome. This is Financial Survival Network. I'm your host,

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Carrie Letz. And hey, we just got some job numbers out,

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a few of them, not to mention the massive revision

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where eight hundred and eighteen thousand jobs just disappeared. I

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guess if it didn't exist, it couldn't disappear. But when

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you say it's there and it's not, then you got

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to revise. A expert in this area and all things economic,

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Eddie Gifford. Got a question for myself or Eddie, just

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shoot me at the email kl at Carrie Let's dot com. Eddie,

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great to have you back. So we've been hanging our

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hat for the past year and a half. Oh, we

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can't be in a recession. We got some great job numbers.

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Then they go revise it down eight hundred and eighteen thousand.

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You know, that is equivalent of seventy thousand jobs a

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month that we're vaporware here. What's the deal?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, the crazy thing carry is we're continuing to

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see it. I mean, the last two months were revised

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down as well. As part of today's jobs report, we

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had a job report that chmian under and so it's

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it's kind of crazy because we've been leaning on this,

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you know, quote strong job market for the last year,

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year and a half. That's why we've been higher for longer,

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for as long as we've been and you and I

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have this discussed this and how we've been seeing these

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cracks out of the surface. How when you actually go

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out there and talk to the American people, like what

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the numbers were saying isn't what it didn't seem to

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be what was actually happening, And then bam we get

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hit with the oh, eight hundred thousand and other and

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and and then more recent revisions too, and it's just

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like one of those things where it's like like, who

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are like, who are they fooling? I mean, we saw

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it by just talking to people on a daily basis,

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and unfortunately, what it means is that the higher for

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longer was probably too high for too long, And now

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we have this yield kurt n in version, which which

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typically says hey like slow growth, a head and the whole.

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Speaker 4: Idea of a soft landing. I think that that pretty much.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is off the table at this point,

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and it's just so frustrating because it's not like you

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couldn't see a lot of this stuff happening, and you

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can see this stuff coming, but you know, we one

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into I guess like curb inflation. Well, I mean we

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don't even know if that that's actually fixed at this point,

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but what we do know is that every day people

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are struggling and now it's really really showing up. And

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it's September and we've got an election around the quarter.

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So it's just like all this this leads to like

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buckle up because here comes to volatility.

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Speaker 4: It's going to be wild and probably not so fun.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely, so interest rate cuts in the offering here.

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Speaker 1: Well, I mean I think that power has already come

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forward and saying it's time to change policy, and that's

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always kind of a tell tale that. The nice thing

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about the feed is unless it's some type of black

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Swan event, they always tell you what they're going to

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do before they do it, so we know what cuts

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coming in September in a week. The question is how

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big is that cut. Is it going to be twenty

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five basis points? Is it going to be fifty basis points?

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And you know, I think it's a little bit mixed there.

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With all the revisions, you would lean toward a fifty

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pieces point cut, but at the same time, you know

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the inflation fear and everything, so the rates are coming.

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The problem is is that when you look at like

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the last few times that this has happened after that

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first rate cut is when we've seen significant downside in

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the stockmore hit in general. Don't know if that's going

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to happen again, but history typically rhymes and with everything

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else that we've been talking about, and the fact that

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unemployment or employment is.

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Speaker 4: Just slowing down.

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Speaker 1: Jobs are slowing down, unemployment rate isn't showing it yet

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because a lot of people are probably just fed up

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and like, I'm just not going to look anymore. And

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if I'm not going to look, or if I retire,

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I guess what, you don't get counted in those numbers anymore. So,

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you know, unemployment rate is very very misleading, especially given

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the circumstances that we have right now. So the cuts

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are coming, but unfortunately, I think the cuts are coming

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because they have to do it now, not because they

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want to do it to kind of start strewing some growth.

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They gain like they have to do it because if

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they don't, there's going to be absolutely no growth, and

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that's just the recipe for disaster generally speaking.

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Speaker 3: Hey, so what about housing, the housing the major homebuilders,

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they're still doing not so bad, right their share prices.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, of course we're coming off of summer, and you know,

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the one of the primary building seasons. You know, if

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you're looking at the jobs report, where are the most

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jobs being added, it was in construction. That makes sense,

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like heading into like the last couple months before falling winter,

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and then those those payrolls typically slow down. And the

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thing about housing is that it's still the same story

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as it was a year ago. Like the builders are

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the only game in town because all of the resells,

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all the people that have the cheaper se interest rate,

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they're not selling, and so if you're going to buy

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a house, you only got one place to buy it,

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and that's for I'm a builder. Now more inventory is

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beginning to flood the market and that will hurt the

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builders over time, but it's still always a lag of fact,

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like people want the new house if they can get it,

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and the builders are still willing to buy down rates

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so that they get up a low market interust rate

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if you buy a new house. So until the resellers

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actually start competing with the builders from that standpoint, pain

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for closing costs, pain to buy the rate down, doing

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these different types of things, we're not really going to

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see builders get hit now. If things just slow down

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period demand destruction is demand instruction. Everything goes down in

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that scenario, but the builders continue to be the only

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gaming town.

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Speaker 4: If you're only gaming town, it's hard to go down.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's for sure. Okay, So the question is have

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we really been in a recession all this time and

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all the numbers just manipulated and not really reflecting this

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state of reality.

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Speaker 1: Like you said, well, if you talk to the everyday person,

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they've been in a recess for the last three to

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six months, and you know they've been having to make

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those decisions, Uh do I buy milk or do.

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Speaker 4: I hype bread?

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Speaker 1: Like the the the energy costs are going up. It's

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costing more to pay the power bills. You know, the

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cost of water is going up because everybody's in a drought,

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and so all of these things, you know, like they're

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inflationary from the standpoint of just the fact that there's

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higher demand not even doesn't even have to do with

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you know, the fact that we had all this stimulus

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that ramped up inflation everywhere else. So, uh, it would

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it would not surprise me if you know, things start

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getting really bad and then we get the word that says, oh,

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by the way, we've been in the recession for twelve

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months and and and uh that's that that that just

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seems to be the mL right now. The you know, ay,

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everything's good, everything's go, every good, everything's good. And then

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you get six months down the line, just kidding. We

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didn't really have those eight hundred thousand jobs, but we

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wanted to say that we did so that we could

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make the stock market keep going up.

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Speaker 4: On every Bundy field warm and fuzzy inside.

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Speaker 1: So it's not saying I'm good for the next president,

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that's for sure.

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Speaker 4: It doesn't matter who it is.

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Speaker 1: Like it like like things are, things are broken, but

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they're not gonna let them break break, I don't think

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and Dell whoever he gets in and gets in.

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Speaker 3: So Warren Buffett's been on a little selling spree. He

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sold Apple. It sold half his Apple shares. UH Bank

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of America. He sold six billion of that. As if

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we didn't need another negative, negative indicator.

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Speaker 1: Right, well, it's one of those things. But big but

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warm Buffet was never going to sell Make America. And

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and and you know you could say, well, he's trimming

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positioned in Apple like by half. I mean, come on,

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that's that's that's that's a lot. And he's sitting on

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the pilot cash the biggest pile of cash. And if

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you remember, warm Buffett has two rules. Number one, don't

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lose numb, don't lose money. Number two, don't forget rule

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number one. And so for whatever amazing rule number one

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right exactly, And so for a reason he's in this

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situation where he's like, hey, I want to have dry

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powder available, and you know, part of it has been

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that he's had really really good returns. I mean, Apple

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has been amazing over the last ten years. But I

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also think that he's getting ready to pounce. And he's

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the guy that says, be greedy when people are fearful.

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If fear is not there yet, but it will be there.

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And when it happens, it happens fast. And he gets

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really crazy, really fast. And that's where you're going to

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hear about Warren Buffet picking up all these new companies,

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these good businesses at very attractive pricing levels.

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Speaker 4: So he's smart investor. You know things are near the top.

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Speaker 1: You look at like all the earnings multiples, you look

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at all the pees, you look.

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Speaker 4: At all that stuff.

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Speaker 1: We are any overvalued market, like, there's no doubt about

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it if you're if you're using like Kate Mitchers for

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secular bears, like, we've been there for a while. And

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so he's just getting ready. And again that's not exactly

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like a great indicator. When the person who's considered the

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greatest investor of all time is building a significant cash position.

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Speaker 3: He's sitting on two hundred and seventy seven billion dollars

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in cash, right, So what does that tell you and

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we'll have to see the future reports. If he continues

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to liquidate, but you know, the market takes a hit,

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then he'll go back and probably buy some of those

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same stocks back and increase his ownership position in Apple

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and in Bank of America, or maybe he'll switch to

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another sector.

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Speaker 4: Yeah. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: One. The other thing is is that you know you're

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going to have depending on what happens in November, you're

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going to have a lot of activity because as people

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think one person's going to get in or the other,

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they're going to buy or sell. You know, a lot

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of like tax motivated selling, I'm sure because of the

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RAMITNP and if people are scared the taxes are going

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to go up, you know, let's just take the twenty

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percent now and not get hit with a twenty eight

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or thirty three percent later type thing. We're seeing the

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same thing with people asking about roth Ken versions with

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sunsets happening in two years, and people are just like,

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I just want to I just want to pay the tax,

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only know what it is, and so so there you're

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there's there's a lot of reasons to exit right now,

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whether it's tax monivator, just the fact that we're near

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our top. But at the same time, if you're gonna exit,

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you got to have a reason.

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Speaker 4: To get back in.

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Speaker 1: And I think that that's the thing that's missing from

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a lot of portfolios in general, is we buy for

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no real reason, and then when we buy, we don't

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have our reason to get out. You should always have

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a reason to get out. You should follow reason, and

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then when you get out, you should have a reason

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to get in again. And you should follow that. And

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if you can stick to your discipline, that's your opportunity

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to win compared to like a passive portfolio. But unfortunately,

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a lot of people get emotional, and that's the thing

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that ends up hurting us. And when Warren Buffett is

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buying the stock, you know, unfortunately the every day investor

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is the one selling it.

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Speaker 3: You self. Interesting, all right, Well, I guess we're going

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to find out more as time goes by. Hey, the

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dollar is definitely well below it's frior levels. It's you know,

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trading close to one hundred. Generally, when Republicans are going

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to win the White House, the dollar takes a hit.

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And we saw, you know last time, the last election,

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the dollar was going up, which was definitely an indication

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of who is going to win that election. I guess

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we're just going to have to see Eddie. Just tell

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us where we find you, how we connect with you

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on the web.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you can just google Eddie Gifford and you'll find me.

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I'm right there at the top. But the website is

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tactivewealth dot com slash Eddie Dash Gifford, and you can

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go there. You can see how we do things, kind

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of learn a little bit more about our background.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 1: We always encourage anytime you're checking out a financial advisor

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that or broker scheck, look them up. Make sure that

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they don't have any crazy things that they've done in

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the past.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, we're here for you.

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Speaker 1: The flexibility that you need in your portfolio right now

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is something that we practice on a daily basis. We're

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not going to ride that roller coaster down to the bottom.

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We're going to make sure that we're trying to protect

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you if that catalyst does happen that really springs us

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into this crazy recession that we're all worried about.

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Speaker 3: All right, well, hey, hopefully it'll be short and not

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too deep. But he always pays to be optimistic. The

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link to Eddie's site is in the show. That's this

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interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. Please go there

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check out his site. While you're there, sign up for

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your free newsletter Eddie. It's always a pleasure. Gutting questions

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or comments, Shoot me an email kl at Carrie lets

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dot com. Eddie will talk to you again real sin.

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Speaker 4: All right, Thanks, Kerry, have a good one.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to carry Letz's Financial Survival Network your

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solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to

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Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,