Speaker 1: The rate of coming that The problem is is that
when you look at like the last few times that
this has happened after that first rake is when we've
seen a significant downside in the stock market in general.
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Speaker 3: Ever, and welcome. This is Financial Survival Network. I'm your host,
Carrie Letz. And hey, we just got some job numbers out,
a few of them, not to mention the massive revision
where eight hundred and eighteen thousand jobs just disappeared. I
guess if it didn't exist, it couldn't disappear. But when
you say it's there and it's not, then you got
to revise. A expert in this area and all things economic,
Eddie Gifford. Got a question for myself or Eddie, just
shoot me at the email kl at Carrie Let's dot com. Eddie,
great to have you back. So we've been hanging our
hat for the past year and a half. Oh, we
can't be in a recession. We got some great job numbers.
Then they go revise it down eight hundred and eighteen thousand.
You know, that is equivalent of seventy thousand jobs a
month that we're vaporware here. What's the deal?
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, the crazy thing carry is we're continuing to
see it. I mean, the last two months were revised
down as well. As part of today's jobs report, we
had a job report that chmian under and so it's
it's kind of crazy because we've been leaning on this,
you know, quote strong job market for the last year,
year and a half. That's why we've been higher for longer,
for as long as we've been and you and I
have this discussed this and how we've been seeing these
cracks out of the surface. How when you actually go
out there and talk to the American people, like what
the numbers were saying isn't what it didn't seem to
be what was actually happening, And then bam we get
hit with the oh, eight hundred thousand and other and
and and then more recent revisions too, and it's just
like one of those things where it's like like, who
are like, who are they fooling? I mean, we saw
it by just talking to people on a daily basis,
and unfortunately, what it means is that the higher for
longer was probably too high for too long, And now
we have this yield kurt n in version, which which
typically says hey like slow growth, a head and the whole.
Speaker 4: Idea of a soft landing. I think that that pretty much.
Speaker 1: I mean, this is off the table at this point,
and it's just so frustrating because it's not like you
couldn't see a lot of this stuff happening, and you
can see this stuff coming, but you know, we one
into I guess like curb inflation. Well, I mean we
don't even know if that that's actually fixed at this point,
but what we do know is that every day people
are struggling and now it's really really showing up. And
it's September and we've got an election around the quarter.
So it's just like all this this leads to like
buckle up because here comes to volatility.
Speaker 4: It's going to be wild and probably not so fun.
Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely, so interest rate cuts in the offering here.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean I think that power has already come
forward and saying it's time to change policy, and that's
always kind of a tell tale that. The nice thing
about the feed is unless it's some type of black
Swan event, they always tell you what they're going to
do before they do it, so we know what cuts
coming in September in a week. The question is how
big is that cut. Is it going to be twenty
five basis points? Is it going to be fifty basis points?
And you know, I think it's a little bit mixed there.
With all the revisions, you would lean toward a fifty
pieces point cut, but at the same time, you know
the inflation fear and everything, so the rates are coming.
The problem is is that when you look at like
the last few times that this has happened after that
first rate cut is when we've seen significant downside in
the stockmore hit in general. Don't know if that's going
to happen again, but history typically rhymes and with everything
else that we've been talking about, and the fact that
unemployment or employment is.
Speaker 4: Just slowing down.
Speaker 1: Jobs are slowing down, unemployment rate isn't showing it yet
because a lot of people are probably just fed up
and like, I'm just not going to look anymore. And
if I'm not going to look, or if I retire,
I guess what, you don't get counted in those numbers anymore. So,
you know, unemployment rate is very very misleading, especially given
the circumstances that we have right now. So the cuts
are coming, but unfortunately, I think the cuts are coming
because they have to do it now, not because they
want to do it to kind of start strewing some growth.
They gain like they have to do it because if
they don't, there's going to be absolutely no growth, and
that's just the recipe for disaster generally speaking.
Speaker 3: Hey, so what about housing, the housing the major homebuilders,
they're still doing not so bad, right their share prices.
Speaker 1: Yeah, of course we're coming off of summer, and you know,
the one of the primary building seasons. You know, if
you're looking at the jobs report, where are the most
jobs being added, it was in construction. That makes sense,
like heading into like the last couple months before falling winter,
and then those those payrolls typically slow down. And the
thing about housing is that it's still the same story
as it was a year ago. Like the builders are
the only game in town because all of the resells,
all the people that have the cheaper se interest rate,
they're not selling, and so if you're going to buy
a house, you only got one place to buy it,
and that's for I'm a builder. Now more inventory is
beginning to flood the market and that will hurt the
builders over time, but it's still always a lag of fact,
like people want the new house if they can get it,
and the builders are still willing to buy down rates
so that they get up a low market interust rate
if you buy a new house. So until the resellers
actually start competing with the builders from that standpoint, pain
for closing costs, pain to buy the rate down, doing
these different types of things, we're not really going to
see builders get hit now. If things just slow down
period demand destruction is demand instruction. Everything goes down in
that scenario, but the builders continue to be the only
gaming town.
Speaker 4: If you're only gaming town, it's hard to go down.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's for sure. Okay, So the question is have
we really been in a recession all this time and
all the numbers just manipulated and not really reflecting this
state of reality.
Speaker 1: Like you said, well, if you talk to the everyday person,
they've been in a recess for the last three to
six months, and you know they've been having to make
those decisions, Uh do I buy milk or do.
Speaker 4: I hype bread?
Speaker 1: Like the the the energy costs are going up. It's
costing more to pay the power bills. You know, the
cost of water is going up because everybody's in a drought,
and so all of these things, you know, like they're
inflationary from the standpoint of just the fact that there's
higher demand not even doesn't even have to do with
you know, the fact that we had all this stimulus
that ramped up inflation everywhere else. So, uh, it would
it would not surprise me if you know, things start
getting really bad and then we get the word that says, oh,
by the way, we've been in the recession for twelve
months and and and uh that's that that that just
seems to be the mL right now. The you know, ay,
everything's good, everything's go, every good, everything's good. And then
you get six months down the line, just kidding. We
didn't really have those eight hundred thousand jobs, but we
wanted to say that we did so that we could
make the stock market keep going up.
Speaker 4: On every Bundy field warm and fuzzy inside.
Speaker 1: So it's not saying I'm good for the next president,
that's for sure.
Speaker 4: It doesn't matter who it is.
Speaker 1: Like it like like things are, things are broken, but
they're not gonna let them break break, I don't think
and Dell whoever he gets in and gets in.
Speaker 3: So Warren Buffett's been on a little selling spree. He
sold Apple. It sold half his Apple shares. UH Bank
of America. He sold six billion of that. As if
we didn't need another negative, negative indicator.
Speaker 1: Right, well, it's one of those things. But big but
warm Buffet was never going to sell Make America. And
and and you know you could say, well, he's trimming
positioned in Apple like by half. I mean, come on,
that's that's that's that's a lot. And he's sitting on
the pilot cash the biggest pile of cash. And if
you remember, warm Buffett has two rules. Number one, don't
lose numb, don't lose money. Number two, don't forget rule
number one. And so for whatever amazing rule number one
right exactly, And so for a reason he's in this
situation where he's like, hey, I want to have dry
powder available, and you know, part of it has been
that he's had really really good returns. I mean, Apple
has been amazing over the last ten years. But I
also think that he's getting ready to pounce. And he's
the guy that says, be greedy when people are fearful.
If fear is not there yet, but it will be there.
And when it happens, it happens fast. And he gets
really crazy, really fast. And that's where you're going to
hear about Warren Buffet picking up all these new companies,
these good businesses at very attractive pricing levels.
Speaker 4: So he's smart investor. You know things are near the top.
Speaker 1: You look at like all the earnings multiples, you look
at all the pees, you look.
Speaker 4: At all that stuff.
Speaker 1: We are any overvalued market, like, there's no doubt about
it if you're if you're using like Kate Mitchers for
secular bears, like, we've been there for a while. And
so he's just getting ready. And again that's not exactly
like a great indicator. When the person who's considered the
greatest investor of all time is building a significant cash position.
Speaker 3: He's sitting on two hundred and seventy seven billion dollars
in cash, right, So what does that tell you and
we'll have to see the future reports. If he continues
to liquidate, but you know, the market takes a hit,
then he'll go back and probably buy some of those
same stocks back and increase his ownership position in Apple
and in Bank of America, or maybe he'll switch to
another sector.
Speaker 4: Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 1: One. The other thing is is that you know you're
going to have depending on what happens in November, you're
going to have a lot of activity because as people
think one person's going to get in or the other,
they're going to buy or sell. You know, a lot
of like tax motivated selling, I'm sure because of the
RAMITNP and if people are scared the taxes are going
to go up, you know, let's just take the twenty
percent now and not get hit with a twenty eight
or thirty three percent later type thing. We're seeing the
same thing with people asking about roth Ken versions with
sunsets happening in two years, and people are just like,
I just want to I just want to pay the tax,
only know what it is, and so so there you're
there's there's a lot of reasons to exit right now,
whether it's tax monivator, just the fact that we're near
our top. But at the same time, if you're gonna exit,
you got to have a reason.
Speaker 4: To get back in.
Speaker 1: And I think that that's the thing that's missing from
a lot of portfolios in general, is we buy for
no real reason, and then when we buy, we don't
have our reason to get out. You should always have
a reason to get out. You should follow reason, and
then when you get out, you should have a reason
to get in again. And you should follow that. And
if you can stick to your discipline, that's your opportunity
to win compared to like a passive portfolio. But unfortunately,
a lot of people get emotional, and that's the thing
that ends up hurting us. And when Warren Buffett is
buying the stock, you know, unfortunately the every day investor
is the one selling it.
Speaker 3: You self. Interesting, all right, Well, I guess we're going
to find out more as time goes by. Hey, the
dollar is definitely well below it's frior levels. It's you know,
trading close to one hundred. Generally, when Republicans are going
to win the White House, the dollar takes a hit.
And we saw, you know last time, the last election,
the dollar was going up, which was definitely an indication
of who is going to win that election. I guess
we're just going to have to see Eddie. Just tell
us where we find you, how we connect with you
on the web.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you can just google Eddie Gifford and you'll find me.
I'm right there at the top. But the website is
tactivewealth dot com slash Eddie Dash Gifford, and you can
go there. You can see how we do things, kind
of learn a little bit more about our background.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 1: We always encourage anytime you're checking out a financial advisor
that or broker scheck, look them up. Make sure that
they don't have any crazy things that they've done in
the past.
Speaker 4: But yeah, we're here for you.
Speaker 1: The flexibility that you need in your portfolio right now
is something that we practice on a daily basis. We're
not going to ride that roller coaster down to the bottom.
We're going to make sure that we're trying to protect
you if that catalyst does happen that really springs us
into this crazy recession that we're all worried about.
Speaker 3: All right, well, hey, hopefully it'll be short and not
too deep. But he always pays to be optimistic. The
link to Eddie's site is in the show. That's this
interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. Please go there
check out his site. While you're there, sign up for
your free newsletter Eddie. It's always a pleasure. Gutting questions
or comments, Shoot me an email kl at Carrie lets
dot com. Eddie will talk to you again real sin.
Speaker 4: All right, Thanks, Kerry, have a good one.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to carry Letz's Financial Survival Network your
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,