Speaker 1: Hey, I'm Alex and this is the Token Metrics Daily
Speaker 1: Pulse for February eighteenth, twenty twenty six. We've got a
Speaker 1: lot to unpack. Today's smart money is making some big moves,
Speaker 1: and not all of them are in the direction you'd expect.
Speaker 1: Let's get into it. Here's what's moving the needle. Peter
Speaker 1: Thiel just dumped his entire stake in eth Zilla. But
Speaker 1: first a quick word from our sponsor. All right, let's
Speaker 1: get into it. We're talking one hundred percent out Bitcoin
Speaker 1: ETFs are bleeding money with about one hundred five million
Speaker 1: in outflows. And if you're looking for green on the board,
Speaker 1: good luck. Nine out of ten narratives are down this week.
Speaker 1: The only thing that's actually up prediction markets. That's it.
Speaker 1: Everything else is read. Let me give you the quick numbers.
Speaker 1: Bitcoin is sitting around sixty seven thousand, five hundred, basically
Speaker 1: flat on the day. Ethereum is up slightly at about
Speaker 1: nineteen eighty seven. Solana's the weakest of the bunch, down
Speaker 1: around two percent. Total market cap is holding at about
Speaker 1: two point four trillion. Nothing's moving dramatically, but that's almost
Speaker 1: the problem. We're stuck in a holding pattern while the
Speaker 1: narrative underneath is shifting. Here's what's really interesting. The only
Speaker 1: narrative with any green is prediction markets and up about
Speaker 1: seven and a half percent. You know everything else, meme coins,
Speaker 1: ai tokens, gaming, real world assets, they're all down double digits.
Speaker 1: When everything bleeds at once, it's not rotation, it's risk off.
Speaker 1: All right, here's what you need to know. First up,
Speaker 1: Peter Thiel's founder's fund just walked away from eth Zilla completely.
Speaker 1: This is This isn't a trim, this is a full exit,
Speaker 1: zero shares remaining now. THEL is one of the most
Speaker 1: crypto friendly voices in Silicon Valley, the guy who backed
Speaker 1: Facebook when it was worth five hundred thousand dollars. So
Speaker 1: when someone with that track record decides an ethereum treasury
Speaker 1: firm isn't worth holding anymore, that's a signal. Eth Zilla
Speaker 1: had been pivoting toward tokenzation, but apparently Thel didn't want
Speaker 1: to stick around for the pivot. The broader message here
Speaker 1: is that ethereum treasury firms are under real pressure. If
Speaker 1: the smart money is walking, the bar for conviction just
Speaker 1: got a lot higher. Second, Bitcoin ETF's posted one hundred
Speaker 1: five million in outflows. But here's where it gets interesting.
Speaker 1: While the broader ETF complex is bleeding, someone specific is
Speaker 1: buying into black Rocks IBIT fund. That's not retail panic buying.
Speaker 1: That's an institution with a thesis. The question is whether
Speaker 1: they're front running something or just averaging into a position
Speaker 1: they started weeks ago. Either way, the ETF picture isn't
Speaker 1: uniformly negative. It's split. Ibit is absorbing while everyone else leaks.
Speaker 1: That concentration should make you curious. Third, Stripe's stable coin subsidiary,
Speaker 1: Bridge just got conditional approval for a national bank charter
Speaker 1: from the OCC. I read that slowly, a stable coin
Speaker 1: company now has a path to operate as a nationally
Speaker 1: chartered bank. This doesn't move prices today, but it reshapes
Speaker 1: the industry over years. Bridge can now hold deposits, issue
Speaker 1: stable coins with bank grade regulatory cover, and plug directly
Speaker 1: into the US banking system. For every crypto company fighting
Speaker 1: state by state licensing battles, this is the template for
Speaker 1: traditional banks that thought stable coins were a side show.
Speaker 1: Stripe just showed up at your door with a federal charter.
Speaker 1: Fourth prediction, markets are under siege. Nevada sued Calshie a
Speaker 1: federal appeals court rejected Calshie's bid to pause enforcement, and
Speaker 1: the CFTC filed a brief claiming exclusive federal authority over
Speaker 1: the entire sector. Three separate legal actions in one news cycle.
Speaker 1: That's not a coincidence. It's a coordinated squeeze. The CFTC
Speaker 1: wants federal control, states want their cut. Calshi is caught
Speaker 1: in the middle. And here's the irony. Prediction markets is
Speaker 1: the only narrative that's actually up this week, and the
Speaker 1: market is literally betting on the future of betting markets. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: Wall Street is filing ETFs to package prediction market exposure
Speaker 1: for retail. The demand is real. The legal framework is
Speaker 1: a mess. Fifth, Brevin Howard's crypto fund bh Digital lost
Speaker 1: thirty percent in its worst year since inception. Bitcoin itself
Speaker 1: only lost six percent in twenty twenty five, So one
Speaker 1: of the most sophisticated macro hedge funds on the planet
Speaker 1: ran a crypto strategy that underperformed a simple buy and
Speaker 1: hold of bitcoin by twenty four percentage points. You hired PhDs,
Speaker 1: built models, paid two to twenty fees, and would have
Speaker 1: been better off buying bitcoin on coinbase and going to
Speaker 1: the beach. It's a warning sign for the institutional crypto narrative.
Speaker 1: If the pros can't beat the index, what exactly are
Speaker 1: LPs paying for quick hits? Blackrock is seating and Ethereum
Speaker 1: staking etf and actively buying eth to do it. California
Speaker 1: is starting to enforce state level crypto licensing through DFAL,
Speaker 1: and firms serving Californians need to secure licenses or file applications.
Speaker 1: By mid twenty twenty six, Moonwell got hit with one
Speaker 1: point eight million in bad debt after an Oracle error.
Speaker 1: Another reminder that defi's weakest link is almost always the oracle.
Speaker 1: And Kathy Woods Arc invest just bought six point nine
Speaker 1: million in coinbase shares after selling earlier in February. Classic
Speaker 1: would move, buying the dip she helped create. So taking
Speaker 1: what should you be watching for? Three things? First, narrative exhaustion.
Speaker 1: Nine of ten tracked narratives are negative this week, with
Speaker 1: loss ranging from nine percent to twenty three percent. When
Speaker 1: everything bleeds simultaneously, it's not sector rotation, it's risk off.
Speaker 1: The only green narrative prediction markets at plus seven point
Speaker 1: sixty seven percent. All right, before we talk about the
Speaker 1: risks and what to watch for. Quick word from our sponsor. Okay,
Speaker 1: we're back. Now, let's look at the risks is too
Speaker 1: small at five point two billion to carry the market. Second,
Speaker 1: smart money exits are accelerating, Thiel dumping, e th Zilla,
Speaker 1: Bitcoin ETF's posting outflows, and Bravon Howard's crypto fund losing
Speaker 1: thirty percent all point in the same direction. Institutional conviction
Speaker 1: is thinning. The only counterweight is concentration in e BIT
Speaker 1: and one buyer isn't a trend. Third, oracle and infrastructure fragility.
Speaker 1: Moonwell's one point eight million bad debt from a single
Speaker 1: oracle error is a reminder that de fis plumbing brakes
Speaker 1: in quiet markets. Two. If this happened during a volatility spike,
Speaker 1: the damage would be multiples worse. Under collateralized lending, risk
Speaker 1: is always lurking. Looking ahead, there are three things on
Speaker 1: the calendar. Mar Alago is hosting a crypto forum this
Speaker 1: week and WLFI is already jumping ahead of the event.
Speaker 1: High profile political crypto gatherings tend to generate headline risk
Speaker 1: in both directions. Blackrock is actively seeding an ethereum staking
Speaker 1: ETF right now, and the size of that seed could
Speaker 1: set the tone for Ethereum's next leg. And California is
Speaker 1: enforcing state level crypto licensing with a mid twenty twenty
Speaker 1: six deadline. California is the largest state market for crypto,
Speaker 1: so firms that can't or won't comply may exit, which
Speaker 1: reduces competition but also reduces access for forty million residents.
Speaker 1: That's the daily pulse for two. If you got value
Speaker 1: from this episode, do me a favor. Hit subscribe so
Speaker 1: you don't miss tomorrow's market moves. And if you know
Speaker 1: someone who's trying to make sense of crypto, send them
Speaker 1: this episode. Seriously, just text it to them right now.
Speaker 1: I'm Alex. Remember this isn't investment advice, just educational content.
Speaker 1: See you tomorrow,