Speaker 1: You are.
Speaker 2: Welcome to Ways You Talk today, the gold standard of
sports betting shows where we.
Speaker 3: Talk to talk and walk the walk.
Speaker 2: It's Tuesday, five dollars Tuesday or diving into a little
bit of everything. Jesse's gonna give us a couple of
college football teams to fade.
Speaker 3: Got two big boys we're fading this week.
Speaker 2: We're gonna break down some college basketball as well. My
good friend Lawrence is going to join us to break
down Chiefs, Cowboys, big NFL Thanksgiving game. Then we got
a good game tonight, Stars and the Oilers. I'm gonna
give you a double header breakdown in the NBA Magic Lakers,
all right, Magic seventy six Ers, Clippers, Lakers, and we'll
do some free.
Speaker 3: Plays in all around the world. Let's get to it.
Shout out to you guys. David. I see you're in
the chat.
Speaker 2: David won a bet against me, So David, congratulations, you
get a three day pass.
Speaker 1: I will be.
Speaker 2: Reaching out to you. Customer service will be reaching out
to and we get you hooked up. Congratulations. I had
the Eagles minus three and half boy twenty one zero.
Speaker 3: I look great.
Speaker 2: David gets the win and the cover, So congratulations to you.
Let's bring in Jesse. Jesse, Let's get right to these fading,
these college these college football teams, because wow, I see
your message come through on Slack and we got some
big boys that were fading today. So let's start with
Let's start with Ole Miss. Feel like it's very polarizing
team and coach. Right now, Why are we fading Ole Miss?
Speaker 4: Well, they're ten and one straight up, six four and
one against the spread. They have a pretty soft schedule,
so there is that to consider. They've won two of
three road games. They've only played three road games, they're.
Speaker 1: Coming off a bye week.
Speaker 4: Prior to the bye, they won thirty four to twenty
four at home versus Florida. But the big news is
Lane Kiffen is rumored to be making an announcement ahead
of this game about his plans for the future. A
lot of people believe he's gonna go to LSU. His
daughter is data the linebacker for LSU wit Weeks, so
it might be a perfect fit, so to speak. I
will point out though we went through this same, similar,
very similar situation a few years back with Auburn. Everybody
thought he was already it was a done deal. He
was already gone to Auburn, and then he just pulled
the old psych you know, and headfake maybe what wasn't
going anywhere. I'm a little bit disappointed in Laane though,
because you know, this time around, ole Miss is in
the middle of a playoff run. They're ten to one,
they have a chance to go to the SEC championship game,
and I don't think they need this distraction. And regardless
of whatever his announcement is gonna be, I don't think
you can make an argument that this isn't an distraction
for the team. So that sets up a tough spot
for ole Miss. But that's not the only reason to
like Mississippi State here in the Egg Bowl. They've had
a pretty good bounce back season. Pat Jeff Levy on
the back six eight and three against the spread, so
they've been covering spreads. They're three and three at home,
and they're playing for Bowl eligibility, and for a lot
of teams that's not a big deal, but for a
team that has lost as many games as Mississippi State
over the last decade, that is a big deal. They've
lost close games in SEC play to Tennessee, Florida and
Texas in overtime. They beat a ranked Arizona State team,
and they do have themselves.
Speaker 1: A quarterback, Blake Shapin.
Speaker 4: Is playing quite well at Mississippi State, coming over from Baylor.
His home away splits particularly interesting. Eleven touchdowns, two picks,
sixty two percent passing. He's averaging eight yards per attempt in.
Speaker 1: His home games. This is a huge game for Mississippi State.
Speaker 4: Cowbells will be ringing, and I like their chances of
winning this game. Out right, we'll take the seven points.
There might be a seven and a half available, but
we're obviously going to sprinkle on the money line as well.
Speaker 2: All right, care to make things interesting. I'm not, I'm not.
Speaker 3: I'm not. I'm not buying this. And by the way,
thank you for saying dating Lane Kiffin's daughter.
Speaker 2: There were a lot of verbs that could have gone
and could have gone in there.
Speaker 1: Thank you.
Speaker 2: All Right, head to head beat time. I I will
I will take this ole miss team. I'm just looking
at some of Mississippi State's performances against ranked opponents. It
just hasn't gone well. Big losses to Missouri, to Georgia.
Speaker 3: And what if what if Lane stays? What if what
if he stays, doesn't the wait, isn't this all like?
Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's the possibility.
Speaker 4: I think there's no question that Mississippi is seven points
better than Mississippi State. I just don't know if this
is the right spot in Starkville in the egg bowl.
I think this game gets interesting. But I'm happy to
place that bet with you tell me the particulars.
Speaker 1: I'm interested to hear the particulars.
Speaker 3: Okay, we'll do seven. We'll do seven points.
Speaker 2: I got Old miss minus the seven, you get Mississippi
State plus the seven. That's the lock number. We're gonna
do exactly what we did on Friday. David was the
big winner on that one.
Speaker 3: So here's what we do. After the show is over.
In the comments section.
Speaker 2: Type whether you think Andy side is the right side
or Jesse side is the right time right side, and
then your wager talk use your name, and whoever wins,
we'll pick one from that side and you get a
free three day pass Thanksgiving. Might as well be thankful
for something. So I'm on Old Miss Jesse. And by
the way, if Lane announces he's leaving before this game,
that's seven's completely gone.
Speaker 3: But we'll lock in.
Speaker 2: We'll lock in the seven, no doubt. So it's a
really good one I love to take and we'll see
what happens.
Speaker 3: That's right out.
Speaker 2: That's a day after Thanksgiving, so yeah, a lot of
potential distractions on that one. Oh, you're going to another
big team here. Let's talk about this Oregon Ducks team.
You're not buying them this week either?
Speaker 3: Huh.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's another case Andy of Oregon is the better
team here. There's no question on paper Oregon should be
able to win this game by at least a touchdown.
The Ducks are nine and one, five to four and
one against the spread. They've won all four of the
road games, and they're coming off that big forty two
to twenty seven win over USC. But does that set
them up for a letdown here at Washington. If you
look at some of the road games eighteen to sixteen
at Iowa, thirty to twenty four in overtime at Penn State,
they did lose at home to Indiana, this Ducks team
is just three and three straight up in their last
six at Washington. These two teams very familiar with each other.
They former Pac twelve rivals, and Oregon has always struggled
at Washington. In fact, only one of those last six
head to head meetings in Washington have the Ducks won
by six points or more. Washington's a good team. They're
seven and three straight up, five and five against the spread.
They're five and one at home. Their only loss at
home came to Ohio State. And I hear a lot
of people using this game as evidence that Oregon can't
compete with good teams because they lost twenty four to
six to Ohio State. I think that score was a
little bit misleading. I don't like Oregon's chances of holding
Washington to six points, and the fact that Ohio State
scored only twenty four I think says a little bit
about Washington. Speaking of Washington, they scored forty eight points
at UCLA last week. They scored forty nine points at
home against Purdue in their last home game. And a
hot take that I'm sure I'll hear about in the
comments section, I think Washington actually has the better quarterback.
Dante More gets all the hype, but Demon Williams. He's
thrown for twenty seven hundred and twenty one yards, nineteen touchdowns,
six picks, seventy two percent completion percentage on the year.
But let's take a look at his home away splits.
Ten touchdowns, no picks at home, seventy seven percent completion percentage.
I think Demon Williams is the better course back in
this game. I think Washington keeps this game close. I
will take the points plus six and a half and
we're gonna sprinkle on the money line here as well.
Speaker 2: Andy, Wow, that is a hot take on the on
the quarterback. I'm I'm I'm looking at my guy Mendoza
to throw for a few touchdowns here this weekend and
see if we can get that that Heisman to Bloomington again.
I like, are you being a football school and potentially
having a Heisman winners?
Speaker 3: Just I still can't.
Speaker 4: Well, it's too bad that that Penn State game was
a few weeks ago, because if that was fresh in
everybody's mind how they won that game and that you know,
last minute touchdown, I think that that was a he
his Heisman moment right there.
Speaker 2: That is a great point. I didn't even think about that,
but yeah, you're right.
Speaker 4: It Probably some of the other guys have conference championship
games and big rivalry week games this week that are
a grander stage to shine. They'll have the opportunity to
get that moment fresh in the minds of everybody.
Speaker 2: How do you approach the end of this college football season?
But how do you approach these potential coaches leaving these
opt outs?
Speaker 3: Is there a particular strategy? You just take it game
by game.
Speaker 4: I guess you got to say take it game by game.
I mean, we don't often see coaches like this. Lane
Kiffin situation is unprecedented. I mentioned it happened before with
the Auburn rumors, but they weren't a playoff team at
that point.
Speaker 1: So yeah, the coaching situation with Lane Kiffin is a
bit of a unicorn.
Speaker 4: But at this point in the season, we've had all
year to get familiar with these teams. We've got all
the data to work with, so it's kind of smooth
sailing at this point. I've always done very well at
this time of year, both in college and pro football, because,
like I said, we've spent the entire season doing our
homework on these teams, so we're not expecting as many
surprises as we do in the middle of the year.
Speaker 1: Not to say that there won't be surprises on the field.
Speaker 4: But we should be seeing these in advance, which is
exactly what I'm trying to do in this segment right here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so we get to bowl season and you see
teams with some players like opting out.
Speaker 3: Is that good or bad?
Speaker 2: Do you look as like, oh, they're losing their talent
or oh they get you got some motivated guys coming
in off the bench, it's their time to shine, maybe
some seniors. I found there's to be some pretty decent
spots with some of these guys that actually want to play.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 4: I try to stay away from bowl games where it's
a meaningless game and players are opting out.
Speaker 1: I try to go.
Speaker 4: I try to look for teams that are extremely ecstatic
to be in a bowl game. You know, these less
lesser teams from the American Athletic Conference or you know
the Sun Belt teams that making a bowl game for
them is like their Super Bowl. I don't want to
bet on a team that just missed teams that just
missed the playoffs and all their players are opting out.
I don't want to bet on them, and I don't
want to fade them either, because, like you say, some
of these teams have fantastic backups.
Speaker 1: That you know will be motivated.
Speaker 4: It's too many variables, So I like to eliminate those
games altogether.
Speaker 2: Let's move to college basketball. And you were saying before,
like like it's really hard to have a grasp on
all of these teams. You have how many three hundred
and sixty teams, and they're.
Speaker 5: All like.
Speaker 3: Like dealing with brand new rosters and everything.
Speaker 2: And case in point, we gave you Michigan versus Auburn,
and you're telling me it's like all new rosters for
these new teams.
Speaker 3: It's like there's no continuity.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I made a comment on last week's
show about how I handicap college basketball and the fact
that there's three hundred and sixty teams, so I can't
be completely up to date and kind of have a
solid opinion on these these new rosters where you've got
a couple freshmen, you got starting lineup full of transfers.
We're only three games into the season. I want to
wait and see how they gel, how they progress moving forward.
So I usually lean on betting totals. I gave out
a total last week.
Speaker 1: It hit.
Speaker 4: We got some complaints because of what I said about
the trying to be up to date with all three
hundred and sixty teams new rosters. But you know I
gave you a winning pick, so I hope you're not
complaining too hard. We're gonna give out a total here
in this game. We got Michigan and Auburn in Las Vegas.
Michigan comes in as a four point favorite total one
sixty and a half money, probably coming in on the over.
Michigan scored ninety four points in a win over San
Diego State yesterday. They shot fifty percent from the field.
Michigan ranked number seven in the A People, number fifteen
in Ken Palm. They're led by senior forward Yaxel Lendenberg,
who's a transfer from UAB. As I mentioned both these
teams loaded with transfers and freshmen. I think Michigan's got
one guy returning in among their top six storre scores,
and he wasn't even a starter last year. So yeah,
five of their six top scorers are new faces to
the lineup. Auburn comes in five and one. They're coming
off an eighty four to seventy three win over the
Oregon Ducks. They shot forty six percent from the field.
They were really struggling from beyond the arc five of
twenty three, twenty two percent from three point range. I
expect Auburn to shoot the ball better here. Auburn ranks
twenty one in the AP Pole, twenty three in Ken Palm,
and they're led by senior forward Keishawn Hall, team best
twenty two points per game. He's transferred in from UCF
much like Michigan. Five of their top six scorers are
transfers or freshmen.
Speaker 1: So new faces. But when we're looking at the total,
we look at.
Speaker 4: Pace of play, and that doesn't actually matter as much
who these new faces are. It's about the system they play,
the possessions per game, the tempo, the pace, and Michigan
right now one of the fastest teams in the country,
averaging eighty possessions per game. That's up from last year.
They averaged seventy three possessions per game last season Auburn.
Auburn's gone over in all six of their games. So far,
they're averaging seventy five possessions per game, which is also
up from last year they average seventy one. Auburn is
a team that is happy to run when they play
a dance partner that wants to run. Michigan likes to
play with pace. They have a dance partner here. I
expect a back and forth game, a lot of possessions,
which will lead to a lot of buckets. This total
is high. It's high for a reason. We're going to
go over one sixty and a half.
Speaker 3: Andy, I like it.
Speaker 2: You were mentioning totals is a really good way for
you to kind of to get some plays in on
college basketball where you don't need to like completely depend
on the players and the spreads.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, as I said, it's more about the tempo,
more about how many shots each team's going to put up,
how fast they're going to play, and how they're going
to play, how the matchup is going to dictate that pace,
and whether or not one team's going to be able
to force the other team to play at their speed.
Speaker 3: Nice.
Speaker 2: Nice, it's five dollars Tuesday, Jesse, what do you have
up for everyone?
Speaker 4: I have a college basketball total for my five dollars
Tuesday play. I've already got a five percent play up
for college football on Saturday. I've cashed in three straight
college football five percent the last three Saturdays. I'm one
hundred percent perfect eight O with five percent money line
sides in the calendar year of twenty twenty five. So
we're going for nine to oh this Saturday with a
money line play in college football.
Speaker 3: I love it. Let's make it nine and O.
Speaker 2: Let's have a great Thanksgiving Jesse show everyone great breakdowns,
and don't forget Jesse and I are going head to
head in the Mississippi State Old Miss game. Put in
the comments after the show. If you put it in
the live chat, we're not going to see it. It's
got to be after the show. In the comments section,
put whether you think Jesse side is the right side,
Ady side is the right side, and then put your
wager talk user name. Whatever side is right. We'll go
in there and we'll pick a winner and you get
a free three day pass. It is five dollars Tuesday,
heitikappers could put up a five dollars play. We encourage
you to get as many as you feel comfortable with.
I do a player prop every single day in NBA
and NHL.
Speaker 3: Today's Today's play is only five dollars. Not a ton
of games.
Speaker 2: There's a couple of good spot one jumped out and
that is a plus money play. So the only thing
better than a plus money winner is a plus money
winner at five bucks, hitting fifty seven percent over the
last couple of seasons. So player props have been pretty good.
Last night kind of a wash. We had a winner
in Monday Night Football, winner in NHL, loser in NBA.
Speaker 3: So we're back at it today with a five dollars play.
So partner up.
Speaker 2: Let's get this Thanksgiving week started off right, and let's
cash in a winner. Let's bring in pres let's get
his thoughts on some of these games. Will break down
to some NBA games.
Speaker 3: Lawrence, my man, you're back. He's back. It's been a while.
Where have you been? You wrote me vacation poker both.
Speaker 5: Last Tuesday, I was supposed to be playing poker. I
ended up canceling because my dad had surgery. I was
able to do this show, but Chris Allen had already
booked another guest. I did not pull my owner's card
and have your other guests forcibly removed instead.
Speaker 6: I just I just let it happen. I let it happen.
Speaker 5: I missed you though, dude, new helmets, what did you get?
Speaker 6: Well, they're not new. I just rotated I wrote it.
Speaker 2: They're new to us, they're new to our background. So yes,
but by the way, what a missed opportunity. You all
need to have actual owners cards. And by the way,
I'm implementing that in my production company right after the show,
because that is a fantastic idea. Like, no, you're covering Friday,
No owner card? Okay, so the owner card.
Speaker 5: So how many staff do you have in your aren't
you not the only employee?
Speaker 3: No? No, no, it's my business partner.
Speaker 2: We have a head engineer, and then we have a
bunch of independent contractors.
Speaker 5: Oh okay. Owner's card then required, and you probably should
get one to your wife, as she's the actual boss.
Speaker 3: Yes, yes, he's properly dressed. That's so he always dresses.
Speaker 5: So I, oh wait, that's is that my boy who
doesn't like the way I dress? Oh?
Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, underdressed.
Speaker 2: Okay, I got that too with my With my sweatshirt,
somebody said I was wearing a ten year old sweatshirt
that costs fifteen dollars. My brother, I wish my sweatshirts
cost fifteen dollars. Holy cow, where are you getting fifteen
dollars sweatshirt?
Speaker 5: Well, this is a true classic waffle hoodie. I buy
them in packs of six. I want in every single color.
Speaker 2: Nice Nice the Amazon special. All right, Lawrence, we gotta
break down a couple of games here.
Speaker 3: We're gonna go.
Speaker 2: Let's start in the NFL. We got Thanksgiving, we got
Chiefs and at the Cowboys, and then we got an
interesting game Stars and at the Oilers. But let's start
with this NFL game. Chiefs coming off of huge win,
Cowboys coming off of a huge win.
Speaker 3: This is turned into.
Speaker 2: Maybe game of the week. What an interesting game here?
Casey three and a half on the road. Okay, over
under fifty one?
Speaker 3: What do you think of this game?
Speaker 5: Eddie, I'm gonna I'm gonna talk a little bit about
this game, and then I'm gonna give you the most
mind blowing trend of the 're maybe ever. Okay, so earstly,
you know, originally you gotta look at Dallas here. You know,
we're in a very similar situation to what Dallas had
to deal with with Philadelphia last week. Plus three and
a half at home against a real good team, a
team that went to the Super Bowl last year, and
Dallas showed a lot of moxie. They went down twenty
one nothing, they missed a kick, and then they really
started to play well. One thing we know about Dallas
is their defense is not the same as their defense
was prior to the trade. This team is playing well defensively.
They held in Las Vegas to sixteen. Okay, that doesn't
sound as good as we thought at one time. Philadelphia
to twenty one and Philadelpia didn't score again. They showed
a lot of moxie coming back as well, and Dak
Prescott's numbers are sensational this year.
Speaker 6: Ceedee Lamb is playing good.
Speaker 5: This team is really coming together, and they're coming together
at the right time. My initial reaction is take Dallas,
take them at plus the three and a half, and yes,
I think they could win this game. But then I
did the best betting show ever with Art de Caesar
and Joe and Aari and I did it this morning,
and Joe came on and gave out a trend that
messed me up.
Speaker 6: Andy.
Speaker 5: In the last twenty six Thanksgiving games where a team
was the road favorite, that road favorite one twenty five
out of twenty six times against the spread, that road
favorite was twenty and six. So let's talk about that trend. Andy,
because some trends carry weight and some don't. Twenty five
and one straight up for a road favorite team on
Thanksgiving twenty and six against the spread, Kansas City is
a road favorite. I cannot bet into that trend. I
like Dallas, but I can't bet into that trend. I
respect that trend thoughts.
Speaker 2: It is a pretty good trend because yet, like there
are some trends that.
Speaker 3: Are just kind of laughable.
Speaker 2: Yeah, most Yann and Yanni and I were talking about
that yesterday about like, well, I can make any trend
one hundred percent if I wanted to, But there is
something about Thanksgiving games. You know, they're very unique. So yeah,
it was holiday involved. There's a short week involved, some
of the scheduling thing, and if you're a favorite, you're
expected to win. But as we know, yep, the favorites
don't always win. We have seen the dogs play pretty
good on Thursday night games.
Speaker 3: But I think I'm gonna agree with you on this one.
This trend to hold some water. It's too good to ignore.
Speaker 6: Yeah, and and.
Speaker 5: And Art the Caesar broke it down from his perspective
on the Best Betting Show Ever, which, by the way,
most people who have watched that show has renamed it
the Funniest betting show ever. Why Art feels that trend
carries weight from a bookmaker perspective is that it's late
in the season, so that a lot of the funky
stuff has sort of played itself out. Now the teams
that are going to make a run with the playoffs
start making a run. So teams like Buffalo or Philadelphia
every year you see them lose three or games, but
it's always early. Once we hit that last week in November,
that first week of December, that the best teams play
their best ball. So from that perspective, we would assume
favorites will cover a little bit greater at the end
of the season than they do at the beginning of
the season. Conversely, better teams play better as the playoffs
get closer, and that works as well. And again, better
teams are better off of a short rest, So there
is a lot of merit to that trend. So to
break that game down, I like the Dallas Cowboys at
plus three and a half.
Speaker 6: I think that's the right bet.
Speaker 5: I am laying off of it simply because of that trend.
Speaker 6: It's just too big to ignore, So.
Speaker 5: Sorry, I don't have a definitive opinion, but I gave
you guys a trend you can write down and use
for the next ten years.
Speaker 2: And you can use it on Thanksgiving. Yeah, hey day,
did you guys know that? Okay, so I'm looking at
it right here. I think this trend in the last
twenty six games. I believe it goes back to November
twenty sex.
Speaker 5: Well, the Giants were the last team to win in
two thousand and nine. I think it was they were
the last team to lose. They were the out of
the twenty six times the Giants lost to Denver in
Denver as a favorite.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Yeah, people are asking about, you know, how many times
was it the Lions when they were dogs? But that's
I mean, the trend is all irrelevant against the spread. Yeah,
that's the thing is the books were struggling to get
the spread even right.
Speaker 5: And it's so funny you say that, Andy, And I
don't mean to regress here, but it's a really interesting
conversation when you speak to amateur betters and you say, oh,
you know, this team is, you know, twenty five and
one road favorites or twenty five and one on Thanksgiving
and their response is well, which road favorite or who
did they play or what was Detroit?
Speaker 3: Like?
Speaker 5: Was it all teams against Detroit when they had their
fifteen years of horribleness? None of that matters. It's all
factored into the line.
Speaker 3: Already, so it's completely irrelevant.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, all right, interesting. I like that's a good one.
I'm totally gonna use that on Thanksgiving. It's gonna be
a good one. You don't do anything on Thursday, right,
You're just you're just you're just chilling. Well, we're all
stuffing our face.
Speaker 5: I'm doing the same shit you're doing, dude. I eat
breakfast and lunch, I eat dinner. I mean, I go
to the washroom, my pee, I hang out with family.
Canadians do the same shit you guys do. Bro, I
don't eat turkey, thanks, I don't even I don't even
understand the whole turkey. Turkey and cranberry were so good
you wouldn't eat it only one day a year, So
I don't get it.
Speaker 3: I am with you.
Speaker 2: It's just about the tradition, and there's something that just
meshes about being just a complete glutton and stuffing your
face and getting tired and then going back and stuffing
your face even more so.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it glutting it on meat? Why turkey?
Speaker 3: Well where so?
Speaker 2: Me and my wife my mom are flying to Phoenix
for vacation, and we booked a place where I have
the choice of my main course.
Speaker 3: So I may not be having turkey. I may have
thought this went out a lot.
Speaker 7: Turkey is so dry, bro not if you grill it
or deep fry it, it's bullshit delicious. I hey, I
eat turkey five times a week because I eat him
in sandwiches.
Speaker 5: I like audrill smoked turkey, so it's different, and I
like clubhouses they have turkey in it.
Speaker 3: Anyway, nobody Bill is right.
Speaker 2: Turkey cranberry sandwiches are absolutely delicious. Great, they are fantastic.
Seth brings up a good point. I remember, set your
scales back fifteen pounds.
Speaker 3: We want to get accurate eatings.
Speaker 5: Andy, have you watched the Sakuon Barkley documentary? No, this
is a shirt he was wearing.
Speaker 3: What is it? I can't I can't see.
Speaker 6: It, says Grateful Dead.
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, was rocking a dead shirt on his documentary.
Speaker 2: Man Man, let's move to NHL stars oilers. Not a
ton of games in NBA or NHL tonight. But let's
talk to the store stars Oilers game. What do you
think about this? And Migo ranton and out for this game,
suspended for his hit on Saturday that almost tripped me
up on a prop.
Speaker 3: So what do you make of this game?
Speaker 6: Well?
Speaker 5: Worstly, I think it's the best game on tap also
the worst. Really, the only way to bet this game,
from my perspective is to take the over. Now there's
six and six and a halfs everywhere. Obviously, if you're
gonna take the over, I want you guys on six.
And to give you a perspective, I'd rather you be
on six minus one thirty than six and a half
plus one oh five. So please take over six if
you're gonna bet this game. And the bottom line here
Andy is I just don't want to overthink this. This
Edmonton Oiler team is just so horrible Defensively, I can't
even wrap my head around it. They just can't keep
the puck out of the net. Now, sure they've had
good games here are there? They kept Florida to one goal.
Oh great? They have allowed nine and seven, five and
five in four of their last nine games. This is
a team that allows three or more goals almost every
single night. And I understand Ratman is out, but this
Dallas Stars team doesn't score less than two goals every
single night.
Speaker 6: You can count on.
Speaker 5: Dallas getting two or more. So if they get two
or more every night they play, that includes playing defensive
teams like Vegas or Tampa Bay. That includes playing defensive
teams like Minnesota or Florida. So what do they do
when they play teams that can't play defense. They jack
up their goal average. I think we're gonna get Dallas
with three or four tonite. I think we're gonna get
Edmonton with three or four tonite. And yes, I understand
Dallas is a team that likes to play to the under.
This year, they're pretty much even on the over or under.
Speaker 6: And Edmonton can score. So here we have.
Speaker 5: A situation where Edmonton is coming home from a long
road trip. They're gonna get last change on the ice.
There's gonna be power plays in this game, and both
powerplay units are sexy as hell, and Edmonton can't keep
the puck out of the net. Over six is the
only way I would look if I were to bet
this game from a side perspective, I would go for
broke and take Dallas in regulation at plus delicious money.
So that's how I would attack the side. But I
like the over six.
Speaker 3: I like it.
Speaker 2: I like it over I didn't even think about that.
People were in the chat before you came on trying
to pick the winner. Yeah, no't pick the winner. Let's
root for gold. Who doesn't love rooting for goals in
a hockey game? That's the other good thing.
Speaker 5: Well, who doesn't like rooting for goals in any sport?
If you consider runs and touchdowns goals, which technically they
are goals.
Speaker 3: I mean, you set a goal for yourself, you reach it.
It's a it's a goal. So there's a good Why.
Speaker 6: Johnny why again?
Speaker 5: Yeah?
Speaker 1: Yeay?
Speaker 5: Anyway, Andy, my brother, I've been watching this show a lot,
and I want to congratulate you. The energy on the
show is incredible. This show is a lot of fun
that you're doing. Bro.
Speaker 3: I appreciate it.
Speaker 2: I'm glad you keep Art and Cazar in our lives.
Speaker 1: I was.
Speaker 2: I was really bummed when he wasn't able to do
this show, but I'm glad we still have Art Arts.
Speaker 5: Unbelievable, dude, I'm the best, funniest betting show ever art
is so good, Joe and I just sit back and listen.
Speaker 2: Now, arts arts arts, art, art is a hidden gem.
You you got a good one there. So all right,
it's five dollars Tuesday, Lawrence, What do you have about
for everyone?
Speaker 5: Yeah, so it's actually have a big day planned for
my clients. By the way, last Tuesday, Andy, I went
five and oh.
Speaker 6: So I swept last Tuesday.
Speaker 5: I don't even have five plays today, so I'm not
gonna go ive and oh this, but I hope to sweep.
So let me start by telling you that I have
my first four percent NBA play of the year. Now, look,
I respect every Andy Capper at wager Talk. Obviously I'm
one of the owners that I picked the team.
Speaker 6: But guys like.
Speaker 5: Adam Trigger have four percent plays every night. Now, there
are low volume players that I have no problem with that.
Carmine has a four percent play every night.
Speaker 6: I got no problem with that.
Speaker 5: Brian Power lots of four percent plays. Ninety percent of
my bets are two and three percent bets. Even more,
I would say ninety five percent of my bets stop
at three. So when I have an four percent play,
it is very rare to give you a perspective. This
is my first four percent play this year in NBA.
Last year in NBA I had three four percent the
entire year, I went two and one in them. So
I have a four percent play up tonight in NBA.
I am sixty percent on the NBA season. I am
on a seven and one NBA run.
Speaker 6: I've made over one.
Speaker 5: Hundred units of profitent NBA over the last three and
a half years. I have not had a losing NBA
season in three years. NBA is the sport that I
am becoming best at for some reason. I don't even
know how, but it's like three and a half years
of data supporting that claim.
Speaker 6: So I have a my earth four percent play.
Speaker 5: It's five dollars, and I also have a five percent
NFL bet. You guys can get that for half price. Johnny,
why would ask why is there an L in half?
Speaker 6: I don't know.
Speaker 5: But if you use the promo code health price, that's
health price, you get my five percent bet our health Bryce.
Speaker 6: Thank you for having me, Andy.
Speaker 2: That's a really good one. It's such an unnecessary L
in there. Huh.
Speaker 3: It's like the l lobby who got involved was like,
we need to be in some more words here. Pick
a word that we can be in and they're like,
all right, we'll give you.
Speaker 5: It's like it's like a game show. I'll take the
letter L and insert it in health. Okay, all right,
that's what I got going bro.
Speaker 2: Five dollars Tuesday, keep cash and lords, appreciate you as always,
and have a great Thursday, whatever you may be doing
on that on that Thursday. So all right, guys, please
hit the like button. It really really helps us out.
Leave us a comment below. Remember, Jesse and I are
going to head to head. Put the word Jesse if
you think Jesse's going to be right. Put the word
Andy if you think I'm gonna be right in the
old miss Mississippi State game. And then also put your
wager talk user name. Whichever side is right, go in
there and pick out a winner, and.
Speaker 3: You get a free three day pass. All right, we've
got all around the world. Give out some free plays.
Speaker 2: Then we're gonna break down some NBA games. Get you
all ready for some good actions tonight. Again, not a
lot of games in the NBA NHL, but let's do
some free plays. I'm gonna go to a player prop
in the Star Stars oilers game.
Speaker 3: This is a really weird one. We're gonna go.
Speaker 2: To Colin Blackwell under one and a half shots on goal.
He's only gone over this in two games this season
under and five out of the last six games against Edmonton.
He's only getting four minutes of ice time per period. However,
Mikael branton And is out and I went and looked
in last season when branton It was out, Blackwell went
over about fifty percent of the time. So that's why
that did not make this card. Didn't make the client card,
just barely. College basketball Quiepac Quinnipiac at Central Florida, Central
Florida minus thirteen and a half. This comes off the
wager Talk Free picks page from Ralph Michaels. Central Florida
has rebuilt their team very quick this year. They've got
some good transfers and they've improved a lot over the
first few games of the season. They should have a massive,
huge rebounding edge. So Ralph like Central Florida. Then we'll
go to the Hawk's Wizard. Nothing screams Thanksgiving Week like
a good prop. In the Hawks and Wizards game, we're
gonna go Jalen Johnson over one and a half made threes.
He's gone over in seven straight. He's only getting four
attempts per game. That's a little nervous, but he's shooting fifty.
Speaker 3: Percent from threes. This guy is so good.
Speaker 2: He's so good if you haven't watched him, he's such
a talented player. Washington is twenty third and three point
percentage defense. So look at Colin Blackwell under one half shots,
Cuchral Florida minus thirteen and a half in Jalen Johnson
over one and a half made threes.
Speaker 3: All right, we got a double.
Speaker 2: Header in the NBA tonight, so we're gonna break down
a couple of these games. Let's start with the Magic
and seventy six Ers doubleheader tonight on NBC. Magic opened
at one point favorites. That is up to minus two
and a half with the total over two twenty nine
and a half. Obviously, the first thing that we have
to do is we have to look at the rosters,
and there's a lot going on tonight. Ben Caro is
still out for Orlando. More on that in a second.
Because Orlando is playing with house money and they can
rest him until he's one hundred percent healthy. They do
not have to rush him back. Maxi and Paul George
are probable tonight. Joel Embiid is questionable. If he plays,
there is going to be a minutes restriction, That's what
I'm reading. And coming back from this knee injury, the
knee injury that's plagued him most of his career. So
six games with Ben Caro out of the lineup, this
Orlando team, their offense has got better. They're up to
seventh in points eighth and three point percentage. Now the
rebounding has slipped to eighteenth, but they're fourteenth in field
goals made against. And with the seventy six ers. They're
really struggling with inconsistency in starting lineups and injuries. They
are shuffling guys inside and out. Edgecombe is going to
be out tonight. And they started off the season with
four straight wins. I don't think it was a coincidence
that they didn't have Paul George and Joel Embiid to
worry about how many minutes are these guys gonna places.
They just had their team that had their way to
play and they won four straight. Now they're eight and seven.
Their last three wins have been in overtime, or one
score games. I really think moving forward, this team is
just gonna have to try and figure out Paul George,
Joel Embiid, are you in.
Speaker 3: Er you're out?
Speaker 2: Like we gotta know one way or the other. I
am gonna go with the over two twenty nine and
a half. In this game, Orlando's offense is playing well,
their defense and rebounding not so much. The last three games,
this Orlando team is up to tenth in pace. That's
a stat that would have been unheard of if you
watched them last year. Philly is eleventh last three games
in pace and all three of these games easily have
gone over for both teams in each of their last
three games. So I would take over at two twenty
nine and a half. If you're looking at player props,
trendon Watford over two and a half assists. He's gone
over in all three games that Paul George has played,
getting six point seven potential assists. And he has played
one game this season without Edgecombe in the lineup and
Paul George in and he had seven assists in that one.
Now he went seven for seven on all this potential assists.
But that stat cannot be ignored. Five dollars Tuesday. Guys,
my five dollars best bet is in the NBA. We
hit fifty seven percent of our plays the last two seasons,
so profitable this season. Dropped a couple of units last night,
but we're looking forward to get back to our winning ways.
Really happy with how we're building bank rolls with props,
and every Tuesday we do my favorite player prop on
the board for five.
Speaker 3: Dollars Tuesday, so go grab that.
Speaker 2: Having a really good run, we're in the top three
in last thirty days, so we're seeing all sports really well.
NBA has been one of them. Let's take a look
at this Clippers and Lakers game. Lakers minus five over
under two twenty nine. I will just start off by
saying I am so out on this Lakers team, it's
not even funny. The Clippers twenty first in offensive raiding,
twenty fifth in defensive rating. Their wins are to Charlotte, Dallas,
New Orleans, Portland, in Phoenix.
Speaker 3: The Lakers have won four in a row.
Speaker 2: Lebron is back, Ayton is going to be out tonight,
Kawhi is supposed to be playing tonight. I don't know
if I totally believe that but when he does play,
he clearly does not look healthy. I've watched this team
and the eye test is really bad. This team is
a lot of James Harden dribble the ball up the
court and shoot a three. I've watched Brook Lopez have
a lot of possessions where they're calling for ISOs. For him,
it is an offense that is completely stagnant. I don't
know why they are struggling so much with this team,
but losing Norm powell as seems to really really hurt them.
I'm just gonna take the Lakers minus five. Luca is
averaging thirty two points, eight rebounds, and seven point four
assists versus the Clippers. He absolutely loves playing the Clippers.
I don't know where the animosity came from, but he
just goes ballistic. And in two games last year when
Luca got to the Lakers, they were two to zero
against this Clippers team. I don't have a great player
prop for you because I'm in play for my five
dollars Tuesday play. That is what my five dollars play
is in this one. But I will tell you there's
a really interesting trend here. This game is in La
it is it's in LA, but it is technically at
the Lakers, and the Clippers are wrapping up a big
road trip, so even though they're in their home city, they're.
Speaker 3: At a different building. The trend is first quarter total over.
Speaker 2: On the road is seven and one for the Clippers
in their road games, their starting unit just does not
play any defense. They come out, they can score, but
they don't guard anyone, and the first quarter total is
fifty six and a half. You get Luca that loves
scoring a lot of points to get this Clippers team,
and you get a Clippers team that doesn't play defense early.
I look at this first quarter over fifty six and
a half really has my attention. So look at the
Lakers minus five and we're looking at the Clippers Lakers
first quarter over fifty six and a half. If you
guys could do me favorite, please hit the like button
and leave a comment below tell me which props, which
game that you like in this doubleheader should be a
good night in the NBA. All right, thank you very
much guys for joining us on wager Talk today. Uh yeah,
normOn Powell trade was bad for the Clippers. I mean
when he went to Miami, didn't you just know what
was gonna happen. It was like, oh great, the Norm
Norm Powell.
Speaker 3: Norm Powell going to Miami. Now we know what's gonna happen.
Speaker 2: Pile has been great, and it was just like, Lord,
oh no, that's a that's a rough one. So Bill,
all right, well we'll try and get your We'll try
and get your badge next to your name.
Speaker 3: I promise you're one of the real ones. We at
least owe you that. I'll look into.
Speaker 5: No.
Speaker 8: So, in the in the chat, Andy, anyone who is
in the chat that is a Wager Talk insider, they
have a badge that denotes how long they've been an
insider for. So it starts, you know, with a jersey.
It gets a little bit more involved as it goes on.
So Bill and og O g Wager Talk insider. Uh yeah,
you better put some respect on him. So, so whenever
you see when it pops on the show and you
see this little mark next to anyone's name, that means
that they're a way to Talk insider and what these
folks get with Wager Talk insiders. As a matter of fact,
we just recorded the bet on It Thanksgiving edition. They
did all three games and the Eagles Games members can
watch that live now. Other people probably not going to
be able to see it until around five pm when
it goes public. But if you want the lines before
they move with the bet on It crew thinks members
get early access to every single video we post, and
it's only two ninety nine. That and so much more.
So that's what he was talking about. Put a little
respect on Bill's name as he is a wager Talk
insider and we appreciate everyone doing. It's a great way
to say thank you to the channel. Obviously, the likes
the subscribes are amazing. You want to take that, you know,
family to the next level. Wager Talk insiders a great
way to do that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I believe our UFC breakdown videos get released early
as well the insiders, so whenever we upload it, you're
gonna get it first credit.
Speaker 8: Basically, you know how the YouTube background works, Andy, we
like peeling back the curtain here, but you know how
the background works on the YouTube, And while while it's
doing all the processing and everything and optimizing it in YouTube,
members they get access to it. So once the video
is loaded, if you're a member, you get to see
it before anybody else.
Speaker 2: Perfect, Perfect, all right, love it, Love it Okay, schedule
for the rest of the week. We have our usual
start time on Wednesday. We're off on Thursday for Thanksgiving.
Then we will be back for our usual time for
football Friday. I will be out of town, but I
will have all my stuff with me, so fingers crossed.
Speaker 3: Looks like the Wi Fi and our Airbnb is going
to be good to go. So we'll have our usual Football.
Speaker 2: Friday cast and crew with Yanni, with Marco, with Teddy David.
Speaker 3: I will be doing our.
Speaker 2: Super contest coming off of three and two week. Panthers
didn't get home, neither did the Eagles. But anytime you
have a winning week, we'll take it all right, five
dollars Tuesday, get as many plays as you feel comfortable with.
Speaker 3: Make sure responsible.
Speaker 2: We don't have a ton of our bank roll in Tuesday,
but it's a great night to have some fun.
Speaker 3: We got some really big games.
Speaker 2: My five dollars play is in that Lakers and Clippers game,
So partner up. Let's make some money tonight. Let's get
Thanksgiving week started off right. Thank you very much for
joining us. Shout out to you chat. You guys killed
that today. We'll see everyone tomorrow's same time. Good luck
on your bets tonight, we'll say everyone tomorrow, take care,