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Speaker 1: You are.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to Ways You Talk today, the gold standard of

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sports betting shows where we.

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Speaker 3: Talk to talk and walk the walk.

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Speaker 2: It's Tuesday, five dollars Tuesday or diving into a little

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bit of everything. Jesse's gonna give us a couple of

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college football teams to fade.

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Speaker 3: Got two big boys we're fading this week.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna break down some college basketball as well. My

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good friend Lawrence is going to join us to break

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down Chiefs, Cowboys, big NFL Thanksgiving game. Then we got

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a good game tonight, Stars and the Oilers. I'm gonna

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give you a double header breakdown in the NBA Magic Lakers,

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all right, Magic seventy six Ers, Clippers, Lakers, and we'll

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do some free.

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Speaker 3: Plays in all around the world. Let's get to it.

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Shout out to you guys. David. I see you're in

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the chat.

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Speaker 2: David won a bet against me, So David, congratulations, you

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get a three day pass.

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Speaker 1: I will be.

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Speaker 2: Reaching out to you. Customer service will be reaching out

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to and we get you hooked up. Congratulations. I had

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the Eagles minus three and half boy twenty one zero.

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Speaker 3: I look great.

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Speaker 2: David gets the win and the cover, So congratulations to you.

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Let's bring in Jesse. Jesse, Let's get right to these fading,

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these college these college football teams, because wow, I see

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your message come through on Slack and we got some

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big boys that were fading today. So let's start with

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Let's start with Ole Miss. Feel like it's very polarizing

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team and coach. Right now, Why are we fading Ole Miss?

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Speaker 4: Well, they're ten and one straight up, six four and

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one against the spread. They have a pretty soft schedule,

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so there is that to consider. They've won two of

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three road games. They've only played three road games, they're.

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Speaker 1: Coming off a bye week.

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Speaker 4: Prior to the bye, they won thirty four to twenty

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four at home versus Florida. But the big news is

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Lane Kiffen is rumored to be making an announcement ahead

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of this game about his plans for the future. A

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lot of people believe he's gonna go to LSU. His

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daughter is data the linebacker for LSU wit Weeks, so

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it might be a perfect fit, so to speak. I

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will point out though we went through this same, similar,

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very similar situation a few years back with Auburn. Everybody

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thought he was already it was a done deal. He

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was already gone to Auburn, and then he just pulled

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the old psych you know, and headfake maybe what wasn't

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going anywhere. I'm a little bit disappointed in Laane though,

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because you know, this time around, ole Miss is in

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the middle of a playoff run. They're ten to one,

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they have a chance to go to the SEC championship game,

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and I don't think they need this distraction. And regardless

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of whatever his announcement is gonna be, I don't think

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you can make an argument that this isn't an distraction

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for the team. So that sets up a tough spot

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for ole Miss. But that's not the only reason to

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like Mississippi State here in the Egg Bowl. They've had

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a pretty good bounce back season. Pat Jeff Levy on

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the back six eight and three against the spread, so

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they've been covering spreads. They're three and three at home,

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and they're playing for Bowl eligibility, and for a lot

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of teams that's not a big deal, but for a

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team that has lost as many games as Mississippi State

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over the last decade, that is a big deal. They've

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lost close games in SEC play to Tennessee, Florida and

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Texas in overtime. They beat a ranked Arizona State team,

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and they do have themselves.

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Speaker 1: A quarterback, Blake Shapin.

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Speaker 4: Is playing quite well at Mississippi State, coming over from Baylor.

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His home away splits particularly interesting. Eleven touchdowns, two picks,

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sixty two percent passing. He's averaging eight yards per attempt in.

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Speaker 1: His home games. This is a huge game for Mississippi State.

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Speaker 4: Cowbells will be ringing, and I like their chances of

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winning this game. Out right, we'll take the seven points.

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There might be a seven and a half available, but

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we're obviously going to sprinkle on the money line as well.

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Speaker 2: All right, care to make things interesting. I'm not, I'm not.

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Speaker 3: I'm not. I'm not buying this. And by the way,

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thank you for saying dating Lane Kiffin's daughter.

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Speaker 2: There were a lot of verbs that could have gone

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and could have gone in there.

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Speaker 1: Thank you.

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Speaker 2: All Right, head to head beat time. I I will

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I will take this ole miss team. I'm just looking

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at some of Mississippi State's performances against ranked opponents. It

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just hasn't gone well. Big losses to Missouri, to Georgia.

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Speaker 3: And what if what if Lane stays? What if what

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if he stays, doesn't the wait, isn't this all like?

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's the possibility.

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Speaker 4: I think there's no question that Mississippi is seven points

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better than Mississippi State. I just don't know if this

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is the right spot in Starkville in the egg bowl.

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I think this game gets interesting. But I'm happy to

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place that bet with you tell me the particulars.

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Speaker 1: I'm interested to hear the particulars.

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Speaker 3: Okay, we'll do seven. We'll do seven points.

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Speaker 2: I got Old miss minus the seven, you get Mississippi

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State plus the seven. That's the lock number. We're gonna

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do exactly what we did on Friday. David was the

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big winner on that one.

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Speaker 3: So here's what we do. After the show is over.

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In the comments section.

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Speaker 2: Type whether you think Andy side is the right side

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or Jesse side is the right time right side, and

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then your wager talk use your name, and whoever wins,

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we'll pick one from that side and you get a

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free three day pass Thanksgiving. Might as well be thankful

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for something. So I'm on Old Miss Jesse. And by

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the way, if Lane announces he's leaving before this game,

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that's seven's completely gone.

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Speaker 3: But we'll lock in.

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Speaker 2: We'll lock in the seven, no doubt. So it's a

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really good one I love to take and we'll see

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what happens.

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Speaker 3: That's right out.

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Speaker 2: That's a day after Thanksgiving, so yeah, a lot of

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potential distractions on that one. Oh, you're going to another

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big team here. Let's talk about this Oregon Ducks team.

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You're not buying them this week either?

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Speaker 3: Huh.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's another case Andy of Oregon is the better

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team here. There's no question on paper Oregon should be

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able to win this game by at least a touchdown.

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The Ducks are nine and one, five to four and

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one against the spread. They've won all four of the

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road games, and they're coming off that big forty two

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to twenty seven win over USC. But does that set

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them up for a letdown here at Washington. If you

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look at some of the road games eighteen to sixteen

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at Iowa, thirty to twenty four in overtime at Penn State,

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they did lose at home to Indiana, this Ducks team

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is just three and three straight up in their last

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six at Washington. These two teams very familiar with each other.

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They former Pac twelve rivals, and Oregon has always struggled

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at Washington. In fact, only one of those last six

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head to head meetings in Washington have the Ducks won

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by six points or more. Washington's a good team. They're

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seven and three straight up, five and five against the spread.

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They're five and one at home. Their only loss at

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home came to Ohio State. And I hear a lot

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of people using this game as evidence that Oregon can't

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compete with good teams because they lost twenty four to

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six to Ohio State. I think that score was a

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little bit misleading. I don't like Oregon's chances of holding

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Washington to six points, and the fact that Ohio State

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scored only twenty four I think says a little bit

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about Washington. Speaking of Washington, they scored forty eight points

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at UCLA last week. They scored forty nine points at

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home against Purdue in their last home game. And a

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hot take that I'm sure I'll hear about in the

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comments section, I think Washington actually has the better quarterback.

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Dante More gets all the hype, but Demon Williams. He's

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thrown for twenty seven hundred and twenty one yards, nineteen touchdowns,

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six picks, seventy two percent completion percentage on the year.

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But let's take a look at his home away splits.

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Ten touchdowns, no picks at home, seventy seven percent completion percentage.

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I think Demon Williams is the better course back in

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this game. I think Washington keeps this game close. I

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will take the points plus six and a half and

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we're gonna sprinkle on the money line here as well.

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Speaker 2: Andy, Wow, that is a hot take on the on

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the quarterback. I'm I'm I'm looking at my guy Mendoza

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to throw for a few touchdowns here this weekend and

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see if we can get that that Heisman to Bloomington again.

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I like, are you being a football school and potentially

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having a Heisman winners?

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Speaker 3: Just I still can't.

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Speaker 4: Well, it's too bad that that Penn State game was

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a few weeks ago, because if that was fresh in

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everybody's mind how they won that game and that you know,

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last minute touchdown, I think that that was a he

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his Heisman moment right there.

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Speaker 2: That is a great point. I didn't even think about that,

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but yeah, you're right.

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Speaker 4: It Probably some of the other guys have conference championship

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games and big rivalry week games this week that are

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a grander stage to shine. They'll have the opportunity to

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get that moment fresh in the minds of everybody.

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Speaker 2: How do you approach the end of this college football season?

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But how do you approach these potential coaches leaving these

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opt outs?

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Speaker 3: Is there a particular strategy? You just take it game

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by game.

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Speaker 4: I guess you got to say take it game by game.

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I mean, we don't often see coaches like this. Lane

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Kiffin situation is unprecedented. I mentioned it happened before with

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the Auburn rumors, but they weren't a playoff team at

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that point.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, the coaching situation with Lane Kiffin is a

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bit of a unicorn.

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Speaker 4: But at this point in the season, we've had all

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year to get familiar with these teams. We've got all

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the data to work with, so it's kind of smooth

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sailing at this point. I've always done very well at

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this time of year, both in college and pro football, because,

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like I said, we've spent the entire season doing our

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homework on these teams, so we're not expecting as many

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surprises as we do in the middle of the year.

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Speaker 1: Not to say that there won't be surprises on the field.

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Speaker 4: But we should be seeing these in advance, which is

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exactly what I'm trying to do in this segment right here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so we get to bowl season and you see

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teams with some players like opting out.

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Speaker 3: Is that good or bad?

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Speaker 2: Do you look as like, oh, they're losing their talent

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or oh they get you got some motivated guys coming

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in off the bench, it's their time to shine, maybe

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some seniors. I found there's to be some pretty decent

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spots with some of these guys that actually want to play.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I try to stay away from bowl games where it's

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a meaningless game and players are opting out.

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Speaker 1: I try to go.

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Speaker 4: I try to look for teams that are extremely ecstatic

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to be in a bowl game. You know, these less

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lesser teams from the American Athletic Conference or you know

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the Sun Belt teams that making a bowl game for

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them is like their Super Bowl. I don't want to

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bet on a team that just missed teams that just

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missed the playoffs and all their players are opting out.

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I don't want to bet on them, and I don't

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want to fade them either, because, like you say, some

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of these teams have fantastic backups.

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Speaker 1: That you know will be motivated.

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Speaker 4: It's too many variables, So I like to eliminate those

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games altogether.

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Speaker 2: Let's move to college basketball. And you were saying before,

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like like it's really hard to have a grasp on

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all of these teams. You have how many three hundred

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and sixty teams, and they're.

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Speaker 5: All like.

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Speaker 3: Like dealing with brand new rosters and everything.

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Speaker 2: And case in point, we gave you Michigan versus Auburn,

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and you're telling me it's like all new rosters for

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these new teams.

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Speaker 3: It's like there's no continuity.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I made a comment on last week's

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show about how I handicap college basketball and the fact

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that there's three hundred and sixty teams, so I can't

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be completely up to date and kind of have a

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solid opinion on these these new rosters where you've got

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a couple freshmen, you got starting lineup full of transfers.

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We're only three games into the season. I want to

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wait and see how they gel, how they progress moving forward.

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So I usually lean on betting totals. I gave out

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a total last week.

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Speaker 1: It hit.

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Speaker 4: We got some complaints because of what I said about

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the trying to be up to date with all three

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hundred and sixty teams new rosters. But you know I

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gave you a winning pick, so I hope you're not

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complaining too hard. We're gonna give out a total here

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in this game. We got Michigan and Auburn in Las Vegas.

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Michigan comes in as a four point favorite total one

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sixty and a half money, probably coming in on the over.

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Michigan scored ninety four points in a win over San

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Diego State yesterday. They shot fifty percent from the field.

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Michigan ranked number seven in the A People, number fifteen

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in Ken Palm. They're led by senior forward Yaxel Lendenberg,

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who's a transfer from UAB. As I mentioned both these

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teams loaded with transfers and freshmen. I think Michigan's got

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one guy returning in among their top six storre scores,

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and he wasn't even a starter last year. So yeah,

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five of their six top scorers are new faces to

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the lineup. Auburn comes in five and one. They're coming

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off an eighty four to seventy three win over the

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Oregon Ducks. They shot forty six percent from the field.

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They were really struggling from beyond the arc five of

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twenty three, twenty two percent from three point range. I

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expect Auburn to shoot the ball better here. Auburn ranks

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twenty one in the AP Pole, twenty three in Ken Palm,

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and they're led by senior forward Keishawn Hall, team best

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twenty two points per game. He's transferred in from UCF

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much like Michigan. Five of their top six scorers are

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transfers or freshmen.

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Speaker 1: So new faces. But when we're looking at the total,

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we look at.

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Speaker 4: Pace of play, and that doesn't actually matter as much

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who these new faces are. It's about the system they play,

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the possessions per game, the tempo, the pace, and Michigan

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right now one of the fastest teams in the country,

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averaging eighty possessions per game. That's up from last year.

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They averaged seventy three possessions per game last season Auburn.

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Auburn's gone over in all six of their games. So far,

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they're averaging seventy five possessions per game, which is also

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up from last year they average seventy one. Auburn is

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a team that is happy to run when they play

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a dance partner that wants to run. Michigan likes to

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play with pace. They have a dance partner here. I

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expect a back and forth game, a lot of possessions,

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which will lead to a lot of buckets. This total

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is high. It's high for a reason. We're going to

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go over one sixty and a half.

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Speaker 3: Andy, I like it.

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Speaker 2: You were mentioning totals is a really good way for

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you to kind of to get some plays in on

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college basketball where you don't need to like completely depend

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on the players and the spreads.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, as I said, it's more about the tempo,

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more about how many shots each team's going to put up,

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how fast they're going to play, and how they're going

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to play, how the matchup is going to dictate that pace,

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and whether or not one team's going to be able

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to force the other team to play at their speed.

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Speaker 3: Nice.

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Speaker 2: Nice, it's five dollars Tuesday, Jesse, what do you have

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up for everyone?

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Speaker 4: I have a college basketball total for my five dollars

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Tuesday play. I've already got a five percent play up

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for college football on Saturday. I've cashed in three straight

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college football five percent the last three Saturdays. I'm one

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00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:36,080
hundred percent perfect eight O with five percent money line

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sides in the calendar year of twenty twenty five. So

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we're going for nine to oh this Saturday with a

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00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:43,960
money line play in college football.

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Speaker 3: I love it. Let's make it nine and O.

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Speaker 2: Let's have a great Thanksgiving Jesse show everyone great breakdowns,

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and don't forget Jesse and I are going head to

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00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:55,639
head in the Mississippi State Old Miss game. Put in

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00:15:55,679 --> 00:15:57,639
the comments after the show. If you put it in

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00:15:57,679 --> 00:15:59,360
the live chat, we're not going to see it. It's

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got to be after the show. In the comments section,

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00:16:02,279 --> 00:16:04,519
put whether you think Jesse side is the right side,

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00:16:04,559 --> 00:16:06,879
Ady side is the right side, and then put your

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00:16:06,879 --> 00:16:09,440
wager talk user name. Whatever side is right. We'll go

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00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:10,919
in there and we'll pick a winner and you get

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00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:15,480
a free three day pass. It is five dollars Tuesday,

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00:16:15,559 --> 00:16:18,200
heitikappers could put up a five dollars play. We encourage

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you to get as many as you feel comfortable with.

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I do a player prop every single day in NBA

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and NHL.

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Speaker 3: Today's Today's play is only five dollars. Not a ton

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of games.

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00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:30,320
Speaker 2: There's a couple of good spot one jumped out and

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that is a plus money play. So the only thing

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00:16:33,039 --> 00:16:34,799
better than a plus money winner is a plus money

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00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:38,240
winner at five bucks, hitting fifty seven percent over the

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last couple of seasons. So player props have been pretty good.

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Last night kind of a wash. We had a winner

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in Monday Night Football, winner in NHL, loser in NBA.

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Speaker 3: So we're back at it today with a five dollars play.

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So partner up.

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Speaker 2: Let's get this Thanksgiving week started off right, and let's

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cash in a winner. Let's bring in pres let's get

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his thoughts on some of these games. Will break down

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to some NBA games.

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Speaker 3: Lawrence, my man, you're back. He's back. It's been a while.

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00:17:08,559 --> 00:17:12,720
Where have you been? You wrote me vacation poker both.

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00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:17,480
Speaker 5: Last Tuesday, I was supposed to be playing poker. I

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00:17:17,599 --> 00:17:21,920
ended up canceling because my dad had surgery. I was

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00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:24,960
able to do this show, but Chris Allen had already

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00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:28,960
booked another guest. I did not pull my owner's card

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and have your other guests forcibly removed instead.

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Speaker 6: I just I just let it happen. I let it happen.

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Speaker 5: I missed you though, dude, new helmets, what did you get?

359
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Speaker 6: Well, they're not new. I just rotated I wrote it.

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Speaker 2: They're new to us, they're new to our background. So yes,

361
00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:53,920
but by the way, what a missed opportunity. You all

362
00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:57,480
need to have actual owners cards. And by the way,

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00:17:57,799 --> 00:18:01,680
I'm implementing that in my production company right after the show,

364
00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:05,519
because that is a fantastic idea. Like, no, you're covering Friday,

365
00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:08,720
No owner card? Okay, so the owner card.

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Speaker 5: So how many staff do you have in your aren't

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you not the only employee?

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Speaker 3: No? No, no, it's my business partner.

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Speaker 2: We have a head engineer, and then we have a

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bunch of independent contractors.

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Speaker 5: Oh okay. Owner's card then required, and you probably should

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get one to your wife, as she's the actual boss.

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Speaker 3: Yes, yes, he's properly dressed. That's so he always dresses.

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Speaker 5: So I, oh wait, that's is that my boy who

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doesn't like the way I dress? Oh?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, underdressed.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I got that too with my With my sweatshirt,

378
00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:46,519
somebody said I was wearing a ten year old sweatshirt

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that costs fifteen dollars. My brother, I wish my sweatshirts

380
00:18:50,279 --> 00:18:53,839
cost fifteen dollars. Holy cow, where are you getting fifteen

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00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:54,680
dollars sweatshirt?

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Speaker 5: Well, this is a true classic waffle hoodie. I buy

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00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:01,160
them in packs of six. I want in every single color.

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Speaker 2: Nice Nice the Amazon special. All right, Lawrence, we gotta

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00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:06,359
break down a couple of games here.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna go.

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Speaker 2: Let's start in the NFL. We got Thanksgiving, we got

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Chiefs and at the Cowboys, and then we got an

389
00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:15,519
interesting game Stars and at the Oilers. But let's start

390
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with this NFL game. Chiefs coming off of huge win,

391
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Cowboys coming off of a huge win.

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Speaker 3: This is turned into.

393
00:19:22,759 --> 00:19:25,319
Speaker 2: Maybe game of the week. What an interesting game here?

394
00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:29,359
Casey three and a half on the road. Okay, over

395
00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:30,640
under fifty one?

396
00:19:30,839 --> 00:19:31,799
Speaker 3: What do you think of this game?

397
00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:34,640
Speaker 5: Eddie, I'm gonna I'm gonna talk a little bit about

398
00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:36,240
this game, and then I'm gonna give you the most

399
00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:44,519
mind blowing trend of the 're maybe ever. Okay, so earstly,

400
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:49,960
you know, originally you gotta look at Dallas here. You know,

401
00:19:50,319 --> 00:19:53,119
we're in a very similar situation to what Dallas had

402
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:56,119
to deal with with Philadelphia last week. Plus three and

403
00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:58,599
a half at home against a real good team, a

404
00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:01,400
team that went to the Super Bowl last year, and

405
00:20:01,599 --> 00:20:03,960
Dallas showed a lot of moxie. They went down twenty

406
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:07,359
one nothing, they missed a kick, and then they really

407
00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:10,200
started to play well. One thing we know about Dallas

408
00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:12,920
is their defense is not the same as their defense

409
00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:17,440
was prior to the trade. This team is playing well defensively.

410
00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:21,400
They held in Las Vegas to sixteen. Okay, that doesn't

411
00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:24,920
sound as good as we thought at one time. Philadelphia

412
00:20:25,039 --> 00:20:27,839
to twenty one and Philadelpia didn't score again. They showed

413
00:20:27,839 --> 00:20:30,279
a lot of moxie coming back as well, and Dak

414
00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:33,359
Prescott's numbers are sensational this year.

415
00:20:33,839 --> 00:20:35,440
Speaker 6: Ceedee Lamb is playing good.

416
00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:38,680
Speaker 5: This team is really coming together, and they're coming together

417
00:20:38,839 --> 00:20:43,519
at the right time. My initial reaction is take Dallas,

418
00:20:43,599 --> 00:20:46,079
take them at plus the three and a half, and yes,

419
00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:49,960
I think they could win this game. But then I

420
00:20:50,079 --> 00:20:53,799
did the best betting show ever with Art de Caesar

421
00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:56,000
and Joe and Aari and I did it this morning,

422
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and Joe came on and gave out a trend that

423
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messed me up.

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00:21:01,599 --> 00:21:01,960
Speaker 6: Andy.

425
00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:08,599
Speaker 5: In the last twenty six Thanksgiving games where a team

426
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:16,400
was the road favorite, that road favorite one twenty five

427
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:23,880
out of twenty six times against the spread, that road

428
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:30,039
favorite was twenty and six. So let's talk about that trend. Andy,

429
00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:38,119
because some trends carry weight and some don't. Twenty five

430
00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:42,519
and one straight up for a road favorite team on

431
00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:47,839
Thanksgiving twenty and six against the spread, Kansas City is

432
00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:53,440
a road favorite. I cannot bet into that trend. I

433
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:58,359
like Dallas, but I can't bet into that trend. I

434
00:21:58,559 --> 00:22:01,160
respect that trend thoughts.

435
00:22:02,599 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 2: It is a pretty good trend because yet, like there

436
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:05,920
are some trends that.

437
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:07,039
Speaker 3: Are just kind of laughable.

438
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:10,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, most Yann and Yanni and I were talking about

439
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:12,279
that yesterday about like, well, I can make any trend

440
00:22:12,279 --> 00:22:15,119
one hundred percent if I wanted to, But there is

441
00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:19,480
something about Thanksgiving games. You know, they're very unique. So yeah,

442
00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:23,440
it was holiday involved. There's a short week involved, some

443
00:22:23,519 --> 00:22:25,279
of the scheduling thing, and if you're a favorite, you're

444
00:22:25,319 --> 00:22:28,480
expected to win. But as we know, yep, the favorites

445
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:31,880
don't always win. We have seen the dogs play pretty

446
00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:33,799
good on Thursday night games.

447
00:22:33,839 --> 00:22:36,119
Speaker 3: But I think I'm gonna agree with you on this one.

448
00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:38,640
This trend to hold some water. It's too good to ignore.

449
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 6: Yeah, and and.

450
00:22:39,799 --> 00:22:42,920
Speaker 5: And Art the Caesar broke it down from his perspective

451
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:45,480
on the Best Betting Show Ever, which, by the way,

452
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:49,400
most people who have watched that show has renamed it

453
00:22:49,559 --> 00:22:57,039
the Funniest betting show ever. Why Art feels that trend

454
00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:00,680
carries weight from a bookmaker perspective is that it's late

455
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:03,559
in the season, so that a lot of the funky

456
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:07,359
stuff has sort of played itself out. Now the teams

457
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:09,240
that are going to make a run with the playoffs

458
00:23:09,279 --> 00:23:13,839
start making a run. So teams like Buffalo or Philadelphia

459
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,680
every year you see them lose three or games, but

460
00:23:16,759 --> 00:23:20,640
it's always early. Once we hit that last week in November,

461
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:24,400
that first week of December, that the best teams play

462
00:23:24,519 --> 00:23:29,279
their best ball. So from that perspective, we would assume

463
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:33,759
favorites will cover a little bit greater at the end

464
00:23:33,799 --> 00:23:36,039
of the season than they do at the beginning of

465
00:23:36,039 --> 00:23:42,279
the season. Conversely, better teams play better as the playoffs

466
00:23:42,319 --> 00:23:48,680
get closer, and that works as well. And again, better

467
00:23:48,799 --> 00:23:52,960
teams are better off of a short rest, So there

468
00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:57,920
is a lot of merit to that trend. So to

469
00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:02,119
break that game down, I like the Dallas Cowboys at

470
00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:03,279
plus three and a half.

471
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:06,640
Speaker 6: I think that's the right bet.

472
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:11,200
Speaker 5: I am laying off of it simply because of that trend.

473
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:13,599
Speaker 6: It's just too big to ignore, So.

474
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:16,960
Speaker 5: Sorry, I don't have a definitive opinion, but I gave

475
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:19,480
you guys a trend you can write down and use

476
00:24:19,759 --> 00:24:22,519
for the next ten years.

477
00:24:22,319 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 2: And you can use it on Thanksgiving. Yeah, hey day,

478
00:24:26,039 --> 00:24:29,720
did you guys know that? Okay, so I'm looking at

479
00:24:29,759 --> 00:24:31,559
it right here. I think this trend in the last

480
00:24:31,599 --> 00:24:35,839
twenty six games. I believe it goes back to November

481
00:24:36,319 --> 00:24:36,839
twenty sex.

482
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:39,920
Speaker 5: Well, the Giants were the last team to win in

483
00:24:40,039 --> 00:24:42,759
two thousand and nine. I think it was they were

484
00:24:42,799 --> 00:24:46,680
the last team to lose. They were the out of

485
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:51,880
the twenty six times the Giants lost to Denver in

486
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,319
Denver as a favorite.

487
00:24:54,519 --> 00:24:54,799
Speaker 1: Yeah.

488
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:57,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, people are asking about, you know, how many times

489
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:00,480
was it the Lions when they were dogs? But that's

490
00:25:00,759 --> 00:25:04,079
I mean, the trend is all irrelevant against the spread. Yeah,

491
00:25:04,079 --> 00:25:06,799
that's the thing is the books were struggling to get

492
00:25:06,799 --> 00:25:07,960
the spread even right.

493
00:25:08,279 --> 00:25:10,519
Speaker 5: And it's so funny you say that, Andy, And I

494
00:25:10,519 --> 00:25:13,079
don't mean to regress here, but it's a really interesting

495
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:17,480
conversation when you speak to amateur betters and you say, oh,

496
00:25:17,559 --> 00:25:21,839
you know, this team is, you know, twenty five and

497
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:25,200
one road favorites or twenty five and one on Thanksgiving

498
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:28,680
and their response is well, which road favorite or who

499
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:31,640
did they play or what was Detroit?

500
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:32,039
Speaker 3: Like?

501
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:34,880
Speaker 5: Was it all teams against Detroit when they had their

502
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:40,720
fifteen years of horribleness? None of that matters. It's all

503
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:43,000
factored into the line.

504
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,640
Speaker 3: Already, so it's completely irrelevant.

505
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:49,519
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, all right, interesting. I like that's a good one.

506
00:25:49,599 --> 00:25:51,720
I'm totally gonna use that on Thanksgiving. It's gonna be

507
00:25:51,759 --> 00:25:56,119
a good one. You don't do anything on Thursday, right,

508
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,119
You're just you're just you're just chilling. Well, we're all

509
00:25:59,160 --> 00:25:59,880
stuffing our face.

510
00:26:00,759 --> 00:26:03,519
Speaker 5: I'm doing the same shit you're doing, dude. I eat

511
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:06,680
breakfast and lunch, I eat dinner. I mean, I go

512
00:26:06,799 --> 00:26:11,119
to the washroom, my pee, I hang out with family.

513
00:26:13,319 --> 00:26:16,200
Canadians do the same shit you guys do. Bro, I

514
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:19,960
don't eat turkey, thanks, I don't even I don't even

515
00:26:20,079 --> 00:26:23,480
understand the whole turkey. Turkey and cranberry were so good

516
00:26:23,519 --> 00:26:26,000
you wouldn't eat it only one day a year, So

517
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:27,240
I don't get it.

518
00:26:27,319 --> 00:26:28,759
Speaker 3: I am with you.

519
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:31,759
Speaker 2: It's just about the tradition, and there's something that just

520
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:35,559
meshes about being just a complete glutton and stuffing your

521
00:26:35,599 --> 00:26:38,119
face and getting tired and then going back and stuffing

522
00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:39,400
your face even more so.

523
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:44,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, it glutting it on meat? Why turkey?

524
00:26:45,519 --> 00:26:46,640
Speaker 3: Well where so?

525
00:26:46,799 --> 00:26:48,920
Speaker 2: Me and my wife my mom are flying to Phoenix

526
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:51,039
for vacation, and we booked a place where I have

527
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:53,359
the choice of my main course.

528
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:57,039
Speaker 3: So I may not be having turkey. I may have

529
00:26:57,079 --> 00:26:58,240
thought this went out a lot.

530
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:02,079
Speaker 7: Turkey is so dry, bro not if you grill it

531
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:07,680
or deep fry it, it's bullshit delicious. I hey, I

532
00:27:07,759 --> 00:27:10,759
eat turkey five times a week because I eat him

533
00:27:10,559 --> 00:27:11,720
in sandwiches.

534
00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:15,880
Speaker 5: I like audrill smoked turkey, so it's different, and I

535
00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:18,039
like clubhouses they have turkey in it.

536
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:21,319
Speaker 3: Anyway, nobody Bill is right.

537
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 2: Turkey cranberry sandwiches are absolutely delicious. Great, they are fantastic.

538
00:27:28,319 --> 00:27:30,880
Seth brings up a good point. I remember, set your

539
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:33,680
scales back fifteen pounds.

540
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:35,359
Speaker 3: We want to get accurate eatings.

541
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:41,079
Speaker 5: Andy, have you watched the Sakuon Barkley documentary? No, this

542
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:42,440
is a shirt he was wearing.

543
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:47,119
Speaker 3: What is it? I can't I can't see.

544
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:49,680
Speaker 6: It, says Grateful Dead.

545
00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:56,880
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, was rocking a dead shirt on his documentary.

546
00:27:57,519 --> 00:28:05,920
Speaker 2: Man Man, let's move to NHL stars oilers. Not a

547
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:08,160
ton of games in NBA or NHL tonight. But let's

548
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:10,319
talk to the store stars Oilers game. What do you

549
00:28:10,319 --> 00:28:12,880
think about this? And Migo ranton and out for this game,

550
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:16,480
suspended for his hit on Saturday that almost tripped me

551
00:28:16,559 --> 00:28:17,200
up on a prop.

552
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:19,160
Speaker 3: So what do you make of this game?

553
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:20,160
Speaker 6: Well?

554
00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:22,880
Speaker 5: Worstly, I think it's the best game on tap also

555
00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:26,720
the worst. Really, the only way to bet this game,

556
00:28:26,759 --> 00:28:29,559
from my perspective is to take the over. Now there's

557
00:28:29,599 --> 00:28:32,559
six and six and a halfs everywhere. Obviously, if you're

558
00:28:32,559 --> 00:28:34,799
gonna take the over, I want you guys on six.

559
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:37,200
And to give you a perspective, I'd rather you be

560
00:28:37,319 --> 00:28:40,680
on six minus one thirty than six and a half

561
00:28:40,799 --> 00:28:44,839
plus one oh five. So please take over six if

562
00:28:44,839 --> 00:28:47,559
you're gonna bet this game. And the bottom line here

563
00:28:47,599 --> 00:28:49,599
Andy is I just don't want to overthink this. This

564
00:28:50,079 --> 00:28:54,440
Edmonton Oiler team is just so horrible Defensively, I can't

565
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:57,680
even wrap my head around it. They just can't keep

566
00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:00,279
the puck out of the net. Now, sure they've had

567
00:29:00,319 --> 00:29:04,200
good games here are there? They kept Florida to one goal.

568
00:29:04,319 --> 00:29:09,680
Oh great? They have allowed nine and seven, five and

569
00:29:10,039 --> 00:29:13,400
five in four of their last nine games. This is

570
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:17,440
a team that allows three or more goals almost every

571
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:20,920
single night. And I understand Ratman is out, but this

572
00:29:21,079 --> 00:29:26,200
Dallas Stars team doesn't score less than two goals every

573
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:27,359
single night.

574
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 6: You can count on.

575
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:32,359
Speaker 5: Dallas getting two or more. So if they get two

576
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:37,319
or more every night they play, that includes playing defensive

577
00:29:37,359 --> 00:29:41,720
teams like Vegas or Tampa Bay. That includes playing defensive

578
00:29:41,759 --> 00:29:46,920
teams like Minnesota or Florida. So what do they do

579
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:51,279
when they play teams that can't play defense. They jack

580
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:54,559
up their goal average. I think we're gonna get Dallas

581
00:29:54,559 --> 00:29:56,960
with three or four tonite. I think we're gonna get

582
00:29:57,079 --> 00:30:00,000
Edmonton with three or four tonite. And yes, I understand

583
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:02,920
Dallas is a team that likes to play to the under.

584
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:07,400
This year, they're pretty much even on the over or under.

585
00:30:07,359 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 6: And Edmonton can score. So here we have.

586
00:30:09,839 --> 00:30:12,759
Speaker 5: A situation where Edmonton is coming home from a long

587
00:30:12,839 --> 00:30:16,279
road trip. They're gonna get last change on the ice.

588
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:19,240
There's gonna be power plays in this game, and both

589
00:30:19,319 --> 00:30:24,240
powerplay units are sexy as hell, and Edmonton can't keep

590
00:30:24,279 --> 00:30:26,880
the puck out of the net. Over six is the

591
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:29,279
only way I would look if I were to bet

592
00:30:29,519 --> 00:30:33,400
this game from a side perspective, I would go for

593
00:30:33,559 --> 00:30:38,880
broke and take Dallas in regulation at plus delicious money.

594
00:30:40,039 --> 00:30:43,839
So that's how I would attack the side. But I

595
00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:45,200
like the over six.

596
00:30:46,759 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 3: I like it.

597
00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:49,519
Speaker 2: I like it over I didn't even think about that.

598
00:30:49,599 --> 00:30:51,279
People were in the chat before you came on trying

599
00:30:51,279 --> 00:30:53,359
to pick the winner. Yeah, no't pick the winner. Let's

600
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:56,519
root for gold. Who doesn't love rooting for goals in

601
00:30:56,599 --> 00:30:58,440
a hockey game? That's the other good thing.

602
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,279
Speaker 5: Well, who doesn't like rooting for goals in any sport?

603
00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:05,559
If you consider runs and touchdowns goals, which technically they

604
00:31:05,599 --> 00:31:06,440
are goals.

605
00:31:06,519 --> 00:31:09,839
Speaker 3: I mean, you set a goal for yourself, you reach it.

606
00:31:09,839 --> 00:31:18,160
It's a it's a goal. So there's a good Why.

607
00:31:15,759 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 6: Johnny why again?

608
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 5: Yeah?

609
00:31:17,799 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 1: Yeay?

610
00:31:18,519 --> 00:31:22,720
Speaker 5: Anyway, Andy, my brother, I've been watching this show a lot,

611
00:31:22,759 --> 00:31:25,039
and I want to congratulate you. The energy on the

612
00:31:25,079 --> 00:31:28,720
show is incredible. This show is a lot of fun

613
00:31:28,759 --> 00:31:29,599
that you're doing. Bro.

614
00:31:30,759 --> 00:31:31,599
Speaker 3: I appreciate it.

615
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:33,799
Speaker 2: I'm glad you keep Art and Cazar in our lives.

616
00:31:34,079 --> 00:31:34,319
Speaker 1: I was.

617
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:35,960
Speaker 2: I was really bummed when he wasn't able to do

618
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:38,960
this show, but I'm glad we still have Art Arts.

619
00:31:39,079 --> 00:31:44,039
Speaker 5: Unbelievable, dude, I'm the best, funniest betting show ever art

620
00:31:44,079 --> 00:31:47,200
is so good, Joe and I just sit back and listen.

621
00:31:48,359 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 2: Now, arts arts arts, art, art is a hidden gem.

622
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:54,799
You you got a good one there. So all right,

623
00:31:54,839 --> 00:31:56,839
it's five dollars Tuesday, Lawrence, What do you have about

624
00:31:56,880 --> 00:31:57,319
for everyone?

625
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:00,759
Speaker 5: Yeah, so it's actually have a big day planned for

626
00:32:00,839 --> 00:32:03,519
my clients. By the way, last Tuesday, Andy, I went

627
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:04,319
five and oh.

628
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:06,480
Speaker 6: So I swept last Tuesday.

629
00:32:06,799 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 5: I don't even have five plays today, so I'm not

630
00:32:09,039 --> 00:32:11,680
gonna go ive and oh this, but I hope to sweep.

631
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:14,000
So let me start by telling you that I have

632
00:32:14,079 --> 00:32:18,039
my first four percent NBA play of the year. Now, look,

633
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:22,680
I respect every Andy Capper at wager Talk. Obviously I'm

634
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:25,440
one of the owners that I picked the team.

635
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:26,440
Speaker 6: But guys like.

636
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:29,119
Speaker 5: Adam Trigger have four percent plays every night. Now, there

637
00:32:29,119 --> 00:32:31,559
are low volume players that I have no problem with that.

638
00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:33,759
Carmine has a four percent play every night.

639
00:32:33,839 --> 00:32:35,079
Speaker 6: I got no problem with that.

640
00:32:35,839 --> 00:32:40,359
Speaker 5: Brian Power lots of four percent plays. Ninety percent of

641
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:43,559
my bets are two and three percent bets. Even more,

642
00:32:43,559 --> 00:32:46,960
I would say ninety five percent of my bets stop

643
00:32:47,079 --> 00:32:50,000
at three. So when I have an four percent play,

644
00:32:50,039 --> 00:32:53,079
it is very rare to give you a perspective. This

645
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:56,839
is my first four percent play this year in NBA.

646
00:32:57,000 --> 00:33:00,839
Last year in NBA I had three four percent the

647
00:33:01,079 --> 00:33:04,359
entire year, I went two and one in them. So

648
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:06,960
I have a four percent play up tonight in NBA.

649
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:10,640
I am sixty percent on the NBA season. I am

650
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:12,640
on a seven and one NBA run.

651
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:14,079
Speaker 6: I've made over one.

652
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:17,079
Speaker 5: Hundred units of profitent NBA over the last three and

653
00:33:17,119 --> 00:33:19,680
a half years. I have not had a losing NBA

654
00:33:19,839 --> 00:33:23,519
season in three years. NBA is the sport that I

655
00:33:23,559 --> 00:33:28,079
am becoming best at for some reason. I don't even

656
00:33:28,119 --> 00:33:31,039
know how, but it's like three and a half years

657
00:33:31,039 --> 00:33:34,000
of data supporting that claim.

658
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:36,599
Speaker 6: So I have a my earth four percent play.

659
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:40,440
Speaker 5: It's five dollars, and I also have a five percent

660
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:46,359
NFL bet. You guys can get that for half price. Johnny,

661
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:49,119
why would ask why is there an L in half?

662
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:50,680
Speaker 6: I don't know.

663
00:33:51,359 --> 00:33:55,599
Speaker 5: But if you use the promo code health price, that's

664
00:33:55,880 --> 00:34:01,640
health price, you get my five percent bet our health Bryce.

665
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:04,079
Speaker 6: Thank you for having me, Andy.

666
00:34:05,799 --> 00:34:08,679
Speaker 2: That's a really good one. It's such an unnecessary L

667
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:12,360
in there. Huh.

668
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:15,960
Speaker 3: It's like the l lobby who got involved was like,

669
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:18,320
we need to be in some more words here. Pick

670
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:20,480
a word that we can be in and they're like,

671
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:21,199
all right, we'll give you.

672
00:34:22,199 --> 00:34:25,360
Speaker 5: It's like it's like a game show. I'll take the

673
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:31,440
letter L and insert it in health. Okay, all right,

674
00:34:31,519 --> 00:34:32,840
that's what I got going bro.

675
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 2: Five dollars Tuesday, keep cash and lords, appreciate you as always,

676
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:39,800
and have a great Thursday, whatever you may be doing

677
00:34:40,159 --> 00:34:43,400
on that on that Thursday. So all right, guys, please

678
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:45,559
hit the like button. It really really helps us out.

679
00:34:45,599 --> 00:34:48,440
Leave us a comment below. Remember, Jesse and I are

680
00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:51,000
going to head to head. Put the word Jesse if

681
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:52,719
you think Jesse's going to be right. Put the word

682
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:54,639
Andy if you think I'm gonna be right in the

683
00:34:54,639 --> 00:34:57,199
old miss Mississippi State game. And then also put your

684
00:34:57,199 --> 00:35:00,360
wager talk user name. Whichever side is right, go in

685
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:02,440
there and pick out a winner, and.

686
00:35:02,519 --> 00:35:05,840
Speaker 3: You get a free three day pass. All right, we've

687
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:08,079
got all around the world. Give out some free plays.

688
00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:10,480
Speaker 2: Then we're gonna break down some NBA games. Get you

689
00:35:10,519 --> 00:35:13,000
all ready for some good actions tonight. Again, not a

690
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:15,360
lot of games in the NBA NHL, but let's do

691
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:17,320
some free plays. I'm gonna go to a player prop

692
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:19,159
in the Star Stars oilers game.

693
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:22,920
Speaker 3: This is a really weird one. We're gonna go.

694
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:28,559
Speaker 2: To Colin Blackwell under one and a half shots on goal.

695
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,320
He's only gone over this in two games this season

696
00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:34,000
under and five out of the last six games against Edmonton.

697
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:37,440
He's only getting four minutes of ice time per period. However,

698
00:35:38,199 --> 00:35:40,039
Mikael branton And is out and I went and looked

699
00:35:40,039 --> 00:35:42,559
in last season when branton It was out, Blackwell went

700
00:35:42,599 --> 00:35:44,480
over about fifty percent of the time. So that's why

701
00:35:44,519 --> 00:35:48,440
that did not make this card. Didn't make the client card,

702
00:35:48,559 --> 00:35:52,719
just barely. College basketball Quiepac Quinnipiac at Central Florida, Central

703
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:55,159
Florida minus thirteen and a half. This comes off the

704
00:35:55,159 --> 00:35:58,440
wager Talk Free picks page from Ralph Michaels. Central Florida

705
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:01,159
has rebuilt their team very quick this year. They've got

706
00:36:01,159 --> 00:36:03,800
some good transfers and they've improved a lot over the

707
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:06,280
first few games of the season. They should have a massive,

708
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:11,000
huge rebounding edge. So Ralph like Central Florida. Then we'll

709
00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:15,320
go to the Hawk's Wizard. Nothing screams Thanksgiving Week like

710
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:17,800
a good prop. In the Hawks and Wizards game, we're

711
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,239
gonna go Jalen Johnson over one and a half made threes.

712
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:24,000
He's gone over in seven straight. He's only getting four

713
00:36:24,039 --> 00:36:27,679
attempts per game. That's a little nervous, but he's shooting fifty.

714
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:30,199
Speaker 3: Percent from threes. This guy is so good.

715
00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:33,400
Speaker 2: He's so good if you haven't watched him, he's such

716
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:36,360
a talented player. Washington is twenty third and three point

717
00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:39,679
percentage defense. So look at Colin Blackwell under one half shots,

718
00:36:40,039 --> 00:36:42,920
Cuchral Florida minus thirteen and a half in Jalen Johnson

719
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:45,440
over one and a half made threes.

720
00:36:46,679 --> 00:36:48,800
Speaker 3: All right, we got a double.

721
00:36:48,599 --> 00:36:51,079
Speaker 2: Header in the NBA tonight, so we're gonna break down

722
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:54,719
a couple of these games. Let's start with the Magic

723
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:59,920
and seventy six Ers doubleheader tonight on NBC. Magic opened

724
00:37:00,519 --> 00:37:03,199
at one point favorites. That is up to minus two

725
00:37:03,199 --> 00:37:05,239
and a half with the total over two twenty nine

726
00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:07,360
and a half. Obviously, the first thing that we have

727
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:08,800
to do is we have to look at the rosters,

728
00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:11,360
and there's a lot going on tonight. Ben Caro is

729
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:14,840
still out for Orlando. More on that in a second.

730
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:17,360
Because Orlando is playing with house money and they can

731
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:19,679
rest him until he's one hundred percent healthy. They do

732
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:22,920
not have to rush him back. Maxi and Paul George

733
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:27,800
are probable tonight. Joel Embiid is questionable. If he plays,

734
00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:30,119
there is going to be a minutes restriction, That's what

735
00:37:30,159 --> 00:37:32,199
I'm reading. And coming back from this knee injury, the

736
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:35,199
knee injury that's plagued him most of his career. So

737
00:37:36,159 --> 00:37:39,079
six games with Ben Caro out of the lineup, this

738
00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:41,920
Orlando team, their offense has got better. They're up to

739
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:45,559
seventh in points eighth and three point percentage. Now the

740
00:37:45,639 --> 00:37:49,400
rebounding has slipped to eighteenth, but they're fourteenth in field

741
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:52,679
goals made against. And with the seventy six ers. They're

742
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:57,199
really struggling with inconsistency in starting lineups and injuries. They

743
00:37:57,199 --> 00:38:00,480
are shuffling guys inside and out. Edgecombe is going to

744
00:38:00,519 --> 00:38:03,000
be out tonight. And they started off the season with

745
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:05,719
four straight wins. I don't think it was a coincidence

746
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:07,920
that they didn't have Paul George and Joel Embiid to

747
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:10,039
worry about how many minutes are these guys gonna places.

748
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:12,679
They just had their team that had their way to

749
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:15,480
play and they won four straight. Now they're eight and seven.

750
00:38:15,679 --> 00:38:18,880
Their last three wins have been in overtime, or one

751
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:21,320
score games. I really think moving forward, this team is

752
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:23,880
just gonna have to try and figure out Paul George,

753
00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:24,880
Joel Embiid, are you in.

754
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 3: Er you're out?

755
00:38:25,639 --> 00:38:28,679
Speaker 2: Like we gotta know one way or the other. I

756
00:38:28,719 --> 00:38:30,679
am gonna go with the over two twenty nine and

757
00:38:30,679 --> 00:38:33,400
a half. In this game, Orlando's offense is playing well,

758
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:37,159
their defense and rebounding not so much. The last three games,

759
00:38:37,199 --> 00:38:39,639
this Orlando team is up to tenth in pace. That's

760
00:38:39,639 --> 00:38:41,239
a stat that would have been unheard of if you

761
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:44,559
watched them last year. Philly is eleventh last three games

762
00:38:44,559 --> 00:38:47,320
in pace and all three of these games easily have

763
00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:49,880
gone over for both teams in each of their last

764
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:52,639
three games. So I would take over at two twenty

765
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:54,480
nine and a half. If you're looking at player props,

766
00:38:54,519 --> 00:38:57,440
trendon Watford over two and a half assists. He's gone

767
00:38:57,480 --> 00:38:59,400
over in all three games that Paul George has played,

768
00:38:59,639 --> 00:39:02,519
getting six point seven potential assists. And he has played

769
00:39:02,559 --> 00:39:05,800
one game this season without Edgecombe in the lineup and

770
00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:08,159
Paul George in and he had seven assists in that one.

771
00:39:08,159 --> 00:39:10,920
Now he went seven for seven on all this potential assists.

772
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:14,800
But that stat cannot be ignored. Five dollars Tuesday. Guys,

773
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:17,079
my five dollars best bet is in the NBA. We

774
00:39:17,199 --> 00:39:20,000
hit fifty seven percent of our plays the last two seasons,

775
00:39:20,079 --> 00:39:23,440
so profitable this season. Dropped a couple of units last night,

776
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:25,360
but we're looking forward to get back to our winning ways.

777
00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:28,159
Really happy with how we're building bank rolls with props,

778
00:39:28,159 --> 00:39:30,840
and every Tuesday we do my favorite player prop on

779
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:31,760
the board for five.

780
00:39:31,599 --> 00:39:33,400
Speaker 3: Dollars Tuesday, so go grab that.

781
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 2: Having a really good run, we're in the top three

782
00:39:36,119 --> 00:39:38,519
in last thirty days, so we're seeing all sports really well.

783
00:39:38,679 --> 00:39:40,840
NBA has been one of them. Let's take a look

784
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:45,320
at this Clippers and Lakers game. Lakers minus five over

785
00:39:45,400 --> 00:39:48,239
under two twenty nine. I will just start off by

786
00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:51,880
saying I am so out on this Lakers team, it's

787
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:54,960
not even funny. The Clippers twenty first in offensive raiding,

788
00:39:55,079 --> 00:39:58,960
twenty fifth in defensive rating. Their wins are to Charlotte, Dallas,

789
00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:00,760
New Orleans, Portland, in Phoenix.

790
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:03,440
Speaker 3: The Lakers have won four in a row.

791
00:40:03,639 --> 00:40:06,880
Speaker 2: Lebron is back, Ayton is going to be out tonight,

792
00:40:07,639 --> 00:40:10,199
Kawhi is supposed to be playing tonight. I don't know

793
00:40:10,199 --> 00:40:12,760
if I totally believe that but when he does play,

794
00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:16,559
he clearly does not look healthy. I've watched this team

795
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:19,400
and the eye test is really bad. This team is

796
00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:21,360
a lot of James Harden dribble the ball up the

797
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:25,800
court and shoot a three. I've watched Brook Lopez have

798
00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:28,320
a lot of possessions where they're calling for ISOs. For him,

799
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:32,039
it is an offense that is completely stagnant. I don't

800
00:40:32,079 --> 00:40:34,920
know why they are struggling so much with this team,

801
00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:39,039
but losing Norm powell as seems to really really hurt them.

802
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:41,480
I'm just gonna take the Lakers minus five. Luca is

803
00:40:41,519 --> 00:40:44,440
averaging thirty two points, eight rebounds, and seven point four

804
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:48,519
assists versus the Clippers. He absolutely loves playing the Clippers.

805
00:40:49,519 --> 00:40:52,159
I don't know where the animosity came from, but he

806
00:40:52,360 --> 00:40:55,840
just goes ballistic. And in two games last year when

807
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:58,719
Luca got to the Lakers, they were two to zero

808
00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:01,280
against this Clippers team. I don't have a great player

809
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:03,199
prop for you because I'm in play for my five

810
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:05,760
dollars Tuesday play. That is what my five dollars play

811
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:07,559
is in this one. But I will tell you there's

812
00:41:07,599 --> 00:41:10,679
a really interesting trend here. This game is in La

813
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:14,559
it is it's in LA, but it is technically at

814
00:41:14,559 --> 00:41:16,480
the Lakers, and the Clippers are wrapping up a big

815
00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:20,840
road trip, so even though they're in their home city, they're.

816
00:41:20,679 --> 00:41:25,599
Speaker 3: At a different building. The trend is first quarter total over.

817
00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:28,360
Speaker 2: On the road is seven and one for the Clippers

818
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:30,719
in their road games, their starting unit just does not

819
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:33,280
play any defense. They come out, they can score, but

820
00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:35,920
they don't guard anyone, and the first quarter total is

821
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:38,800
fifty six and a half. You get Luca that loves

822
00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:40,599
scoring a lot of points to get this Clippers team,

823
00:41:40,599 --> 00:41:42,719
and you get a Clippers team that doesn't play defense early.

824
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:45,280
I look at this first quarter over fifty six and

825
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:47,960
a half really has my attention. So look at the

826
00:41:48,039 --> 00:41:51,280
Lakers minus five and we're looking at the Clippers Lakers

827
00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:54,119
first quarter over fifty six and a half. If you

828
00:41:54,119 --> 00:41:56,199
guys could do me favorite, please hit the like button

829
00:41:56,480 --> 00:41:59,800
and leave a comment below tell me which props, which

830
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:01,960
game that you like in this doubleheader should be a

831
00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:05,679
good night in the NBA. All right, thank you very

832
00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:09,360
much guys for joining us on wager Talk today. Uh yeah,

833
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:11,880
normOn Powell trade was bad for the Clippers. I mean

834
00:42:12,639 --> 00:42:14,440
when he went to Miami, didn't you just know what

835
00:42:14,559 --> 00:42:16,679
was gonna happen. It was like, oh great, the Norm

836
00:42:16,800 --> 00:42:17,800
Norm Powell.

837
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:21,440
Speaker 3: Norm Powell going to Miami. Now we know what's gonna happen.

838
00:42:21,679 --> 00:42:23,559
Speaker 2: Pile has been great, and it was just like, Lord,

839
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:32,559
oh no, that's a that's a rough one. So Bill,

840
00:42:32,719 --> 00:42:34,679
all right, well we'll try and get your We'll try

841
00:42:34,679 --> 00:42:35,920
and get your badge next to your name.

842
00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 3: I promise you're one of the real ones. We at

843
00:42:38,079 --> 00:42:39,159
least owe you that. I'll look into.

844
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:39,360
Speaker 5: No.

845
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:42,079
Speaker 8: So, in the in the chat, Andy, anyone who is

846
00:42:42,119 --> 00:42:44,639
in the chat that is a Wager Talk insider, they

847
00:42:44,679 --> 00:42:47,159
have a badge that denotes how long they've been an

848
00:42:47,159 --> 00:42:49,639
insider for. So it starts, you know, with a jersey.

849
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:52,679
It gets a little bit more involved as it goes on.

850
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:56,519
So Bill and og O g Wager Talk insider. Uh yeah,

851
00:42:56,559 --> 00:42:59,079
you better put some respect on him. So, so whenever

852
00:42:59,119 --> 00:43:01,199
you see when it pops on the show and you

853
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:04,920
see this little mark next to anyone's name, that means

854
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:07,159
that they're a way to Talk insider and what these

855
00:43:07,199 --> 00:43:09,760
folks get with Wager Talk insiders. As a matter of fact,

856
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:12,840
we just recorded the bet on It Thanksgiving edition. They

857
00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:16,280
did all three games and the Eagles Games members can

858
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:19,239
watch that live now. Other people probably not going to

859
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:21,239
be able to see it until around five pm when

860
00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:24,000
it goes public. But if you want the lines before

861
00:43:24,039 --> 00:43:26,559
they move with the bet on It crew thinks members

862
00:43:26,679 --> 00:43:29,519
get early access to every single video we post, and

863
00:43:29,559 --> 00:43:32,719
it's only two ninety nine. That and so much more.

864
00:43:32,840 --> 00:43:35,280
So that's what he was talking about. Put a little

865
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:37,800
respect on Bill's name as he is a wager Talk

866
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:40,480
insider and we appreciate everyone doing. It's a great way

867
00:43:40,679 --> 00:43:43,000
to say thank you to the channel. Obviously, the likes

868
00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:46,159
the subscribes are amazing. You want to take that, you know,

869
00:43:46,519 --> 00:43:49,119
family to the next level. Wager Talk insiders a great

870
00:43:49,119 --> 00:43:49,639
way to do that.

871
00:43:50,920 --> 00:43:53,599
Speaker 2: Yeah, I believe our UFC breakdown videos get released early

872
00:43:53,639 --> 00:43:56,039
as well the insiders, so whenever we upload it, you're

873
00:43:56,039 --> 00:43:56,960
gonna get it first credit.

874
00:43:57,000 --> 00:44:00,760
Speaker 8: Basically, you know how the YouTube background works, Andy, we

875
00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:02,880
like peeling back the curtain here, but you know how

876
00:44:02,880 --> 00:44:06,400
the background works on the YouTube, And while while it's

877
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:10,280
doing all the processing and everything and optimizing it in YouTube,

878
00:44:10,599 --> 00:44:13,519
members they get access to it. So once the video

879
00:44:13,599 --> 00:44:15,440
is loaded, if you're a member, you get to see

880
00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:16,559
it before anybody else.

881
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:21,119
Speaker 2: Perfect, Perfect, all right, love it, Love it Okay, schedule

882
00:44:21,159 --> 00:44:23,559
for the rest of the week. We have our usual

883
00:44:23,639 --> 00:44:27,719
start time on Wednesday. We're off on Thursday for Thanksgiving.

884
00:44:27,800 --> 00:44:29,400
Then we will be back for our usual time for

885
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:31,679
football Friday. I will be out of town, but I

886
00:44:31,679 --> 00:44:34,559
will have all my stuff with me, so fingers crossed.

887
00:44:35,119 --> 00:44:37,280
Speaker 3: Looks like the Wi Fi and our Airbnb is going

888
00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:40,639
to be good to go. So we'll have our usual Football.

889
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:44,800
Speaker 2: Friday cast and crew with Yanni, with Marco, with Teddy David.

890
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:46,199
Speaker 3: I will be doing our.

891
00:44:46,519 --> 00:44:49,039
Speaker 2: Super contest coming off of three and two week. Panthers

892
00:44:49,039 --> 00:44:52,000
didn't get home, neither did the Eagles. But anytime you

893
00:44:52,119 --> 00:44:54,079
have a winning week, we'll take it all right, five

894
00:44:54,119 --> 00:44:56,519
dollars Tuesday, get as many plays as you feel comfortable with.

895
00:44:56,719 --> 00:44:57,679
Speaker 3: Make sure responsible.

896
00:44:57,719 --> 00:45:00,199
Speaker 2: We don't have a ton of our bank roll in Tuesday,

897
00:45:00,239 --> 00:45:01,519
but it's a great night to have some fun.

898
00:45:01,559 --> 00:45:02,840
Speaker 3: We got some really big games.

899
00:45:03,000 --> 00:45:06,119
Speaker 2: My five dollars play is in that Lakers and Clippers game,

900
00:45:06,199 --> 00:45:08,800
So partner up. Let's make some money tonight. Let's get

901
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:11,440
Thanksgiving week started off right. Thank you very much for

902
00:45:11,559 --> 00:45:13,559
joining us. Shout out to you chat. You guys killed

903
00:45:13,559 --> 00:45:15,880
that today. We'll see everyone tomorrow's same time. Good luck

904
00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:18,119
on your bets tonight, we'll say everyone tomorrow, take care,