Speaker 1: Donald Trum crashing the economy, were session looming? What happens next?
Speaker 1: Watch what happens?
Speaker 2: Will happen right here on fifty five KRC, the talk
Speaker 2: station eight oh five at fifty five kr CD Talk station.
Speaker 2: Regular listeners know what time it is. Bryan Thomas always
Speaker 2: happy to welcome back to the fifty five KRC Morning Show.
Speaker 2: All were financials. Brian James to do money Monday. Brian,
Speaker 2: welcome back and have you Saint Patrick's day.
Speaker 3: Good morning, regular and irregular listeners, And back to you, Brian,
Speaker 3: same to you.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we've got a couple of irregular listeners out there anyhow,
Speaker 2: so your irregular speakers as well. Yeah, I understand sort
Speaker 2: of uh, reciprocal tariffs, because if someone is tariffing our
Speaker 2: goods going in, then why should they do that. I'm
Speaker 2: level playing field kind of guy. It's difficult to operate
Speaker 2: on a level playing field considering the cost of doing
Speaker 2: business relative to any given countries. You know, ohsha practices
Speaker 2: or not, or the presence of slave labor or not,
Speaker 2: but all things aside. At least I can get my
Speaker 2: head around, Well, if they're charging twenty five percent on
Speaker 2: our goods coming in and then a corresponding tariff on
Speaker 2: their goods coming in, would you know, serve to perhaps
Speaker 2: end the tariffs completely. But if you're trying to tariff
Speaker 2: somebody into doing something they otherwise wouldn't do, and we
Speaker 2: ended up in this trade war because of course they'll
Speaker 2: put reciprocal tariffs on. So tariffs kind of bother me
Speaker 2: and it's one of the things I believe I differ
Speaker 2: with in the Trump administration. But people are freaked out
Speaker 2: about tariffs and kind of panicking and it has impacted
Speaker 2: the stock market at least, although they've been, you know,
Speaker 2: predicting a correction for a long time now, Brian, and
Speaker 2: I know you've read articles about a correction coming. These
Speaker 2: drops in the markets have been attributed to the Trump tariffs.
Speaker 2: So what's the story about this and should we be panicking? Well, yeah,
Speaker 2: that's a lots of unpacked there.
Speaker 3: First thing let's talk about is you mentioned potential correction
Speaker 3: on the way, Well, congratulations, it's here. We are ten
Speaker 3: percent below the highest peak on the S and P
Speaker 3: five hundred.
Speaker 1: That's what's commonly known as a correction.
Speaker 3: We're not calling this a bear mark or anything like that.
Speaker 3: We had a correction as recently as twenty three, we
Speaker 3: have volatility of course comes and goes. Yeah, this is
Speaker 3: of course being driven by the tariffs, and it's not
Speaker 3: so much the tariffs, it's the back and forth. What
Speaker 3: the market can handle bad news, it can handle good news.
Speaker 3: What it can't handle is unknown news. And with the
Speaker 3: Trump administration waffling back and forth on whether we're gonna
Speaker 3: put these tariffs against Canada or no, we're going to
Speaker 3: hold off for a month, that kind of thing. What
Speaker 3: the market wants to know is how likely our company
Speaker 3: is going to be able to make a dollar and
Speaker 3: how many dollars are they going to make? And when
Speaker 3: we've got the rules changing, you know, think of it
Speaker 3: this way. Can we predict if the Bengals are going
Speaker 3: to win a game if they change the length of
Speaker 3: the field during the game. You can't really predict exactly
Speaker 3: anything when kind of the metrics of how we measure
Speaker 3: things are changing all the time. So as tariffs and
Speaker 3: the rules are changing on a daily basis, not only
Speaker 3: the Trumpet minute stration, but also, as you mentioned, countries
Speaker 3: are reciprocating, so we're just moving things back and forth
Speaker 3: on both ends. The market hates that, and that's why
Speaker 3: we're in a bit of a downturn here.
Speaker 2: Well, I would would putting them in place and just
Speaker 2: saying that's it, they're fixed. Would that provide some stability
Speaker 2: in the market or the market would go down simply
Speaker 2: because it's going to cost more to purchase foreign goods
Speaker 2: and we'll be exporting fewer American goods.
Speaker 1: Well, I don't know.
Speaker 3: I don't think that would happen because we never say
Speaker 3: we're going to put this tariff in place, it's going
Speaker 3: to sit here for two years. We're going to use
Speaker 3: it until we get what we want. And that's the
Speaker 3: unpredictable part. We have gotten the responses, you know, as
Speaker 3: a negotiating tool, these are things that have that have
Speaker 3: elicited responses, and we've gotten other countries to start acting
Speaker 3: as we wanted them to. You know, that's not quite
Speaker 3: a tariff, but our threats to back out of NATO
Speaker 3: has gotten finally European nations to start spending the correct
Speaker 3: or closer to the correct percentages of their GDPs on defense.
Speaker 3: That's the same structure they're trying here. Let's just simply
Speaker 3: make the would change the rule, change the inputs, meaning
Speaker 3: the US is going to put less into these kinds
Speaker 3: of things. That's going to force everybody to react in
Speaker 3: a manner that we're hoping to gain from them, and
Speaker 3: then we can see whether we still need it. We
Speaker 3: don't want permanent tariffs. They're not a way to make money.
Speaker 3: They're a way to change the behavior of those we're
Speaker 3: doing business with, and once we get that, we'll back out.
Speaker 2: All right, Well, pitting over to buy, sell or hold?
Speaker 2: What do we what do we do with a plummeting stock?
Speaker 2: And I mean most of everything I think I'm invested
Speaker 2: in through my financial planner index funds, so it's filled.
Speaker 2: It's comprised of hundreds of different stocks, So I'm not
Speaker 2: picking and choosing which stocks I'm personally holding. It's in
Speaker 2: a you know, a bundle of other stocks. But assuming
Speaker 2: someone is buying a specific stock, like let's just use
Speaker 2: Tesla as an example, which is down fifty percent, how
Speaker 2: do you decide what to do with something like that?
Speaker 3: Brian, Sure, Well, those specific types of examples, it depends
Speaker 3: on what your goal is. If your goal is simply
Speaker 3: to build a financial plan for your household and execute
Speaker 3: on that need growth to keep up with inflation over time,
Speaker 3: but your goal is not to try to be the
Speaker 3: market or to own cool stocks that you can want
Speaker 3: up people on the on the first tee of the
Speaker 3: golf outing every Saturday morning. Yeah, then you're taking the
Speaker 3: right approach. At the end of the day, all that
Speaker 3: matters is that you can you can outpace inflation and
Speaker 3: grow your assets and still live the lifestyle you're trying to.
Speaker 3: That's a little different than I want to own Tesla,
Speaker 3: and I really support Elon Musk, so I'm going to
Speaker 3: ride this out. Well, that better not be your Neste
Speaker 3: because that's going to be a volatile stock, and the
Speaker 3: reasons for volatility in that specific example are completely self inflicted. Yes,
Speaker 3: the man invented a product that everybody wanted and that
Speaker 3: filled a need, and then he chose to throw it
Speaker 3: into the fire for whatever reason.
Speaker 1: I cut you off.
Speaker 2: Go ahead, Oh no, you know, but I mean people
Speaker 2: are holding him personally responsible for, you know, exercising some
Speaker 2: cuts in government, and that's I suppose they're prerogative. But
Speaker 2: you know, five minutes ago, he was the darling of
Speaker 2: the left because he was going to save the planet
Speaker 2: from carbon emissions, and everybody was out buying Tesla's The
Speaker 2: virtue signal or on the mistaken belief that it was environmental,
Speaker 2: the environmentally good thing to do.
Speaker 1: Correct.
Speaker 3: And if it's hard to even point at what the
Speaker 3: motivations are, because if it was about you know, usually
Speaker 3: we blame greed and the greed of corporate America and
Speaker 3: so on and so forth. Well, he had to know,
Speaker 3: he's not a stupid man. He had to know that
Speaker 3: he was going to take some hits, a few politions,
Speaker 3: oh yeah, spots along the way, and many of his
Speaker 3: companies by making these moves. And he made them anyway,
Speaker 3: which tells us that he's a leader who is not
Speaker 3: driven by profit and efficiency. He's driven at least in
Speaker 3: some part by power.
Speaker 1: Indeed.
Speaker 2: Well, okay, so I understand you. Managing emotions is important.
Speaker 2: And of course, if you have you know, a financial
Speaker 2: planner managing your portfolio and it is in all these
Speaker 2: you know, mixed index funds, then just ride it out.
Speaker 2: It's all going to go away. Don't divest because the
Speaker 2: market's gone down. Hell, I've been through the downs and
Speaker 2: ups over my life, and as you always point out,
Speaker 2: Brian James, it always ends up going up over time,
Speaker 2: at least historically, that's always been the trend. Unless something
Speaker 2: like the Fiat currency collapses because of our overspending and
Speaker 2: government that's a completely different scenario that we can't plan for.
Speaker 2: But beyond that, it just continues to go over time
Speaker 2: in spite of the downturns from time to time.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and thanks for their minder that we weren't even
Speaker 3: discussing the article at ant here with my little side
Speaker 3: tour on Elon Musk. But no, this is what I
Speaker 3: tell my clients every time we have any kind of
Speaker 3: a concern, which is that it is long as long
Speaker 3: as there is greed in the market, as long as
Speaker 3: someone outs there out there once more dollars than they
Speaker 3: currently have, then there is going to.
Speaker 1: Be a stock market.
Speaker 3: Stock market has existed in some fashion for the last
Speaker 3: four or five hundred years. This is why you learned
Speaker 3: about the Dutch East India Company in the fifth grade.
Speaker 3: You didn't know why you were learning it. Your fifth
Speaker 3: grade teacher didn't know why they were teaching it. But
Speaker 3: this is why it was the origin of the stock market.
Speaker 3: That's five hundred years ago. So now fast forward to today,
Speaker 3: and every company under the sun worth at salt. You
Speaker 3: can buy shares of and sometimes they go up and down.
Speaker 3: I think what it boils down to, Brian Thomas is
Speaker 3: that there are five years that I consider attention getters
Speaker 3: within the last century. That's two thousand and eight, nineteen
Speaker 3: thirty seven, seventy four, two thousand and two, and twenty
Speaker 3: twenty two.
Speaker 1: We just had one.
Speaker 3: These are all years where the market was down more
Speaker 3: than fifteen percent. What they all have in common is
Speaker 3: every last one of them was followed by a year
Speaker 3: where the pendulum swung back the other way and got
Speaker 3: back most, if not all, of the of what had
Speaker 3: been lost. So if you can make sure you hang
Speaker 3: on for a two three year time period, then you're
Speaker 3: gonna be okay. And we do that by making sure
Speaker 3: that the dollars we need in that period aren't exposed
Speaker 3: to this in the first place. That's an emergency fund,
Speaker 3: all right.
Speaker 2: For those out there buying individual stocks, I mean, your
Speaker 2: options when the thing goes down is buy seller, hold.
Speaker 2: And I like to buy option because if you believe
Speaker 2: in the business and you think it has legs and
Speaker 2: will ultimately come back because it's providing a service or
Speaker 2: good that people value, then you may be good in
Speaker 2: buying more. It's a buying opportunity because it's probably going
Speaker 2: to go back up, although that's not the case with
Speaker 2: Boeing of late.
Speaker 3: That's true, but again, that's the whole point we were
Speaker 3: talking about before any one stock is going to have
Speaker 3: its issues that you can't see coming out of left field.
Speaker 3: Hopefully most of the people were talking to were on
Speaker 3: their way to work, and you have a four oh
Speaker 3: one K, four h three B or something like that,
Speaker 3: you are congratulations. You are already doing the right thing,
Speaker 3: as long as you haven't gone into your payroll department
Speaker 3: and told them to stop pulling money out to contribute
Speaker 3: to your bi weekly or weekly paycheck or whatever you have,
Speaker 3: because you are investing through this downturn. I love this situation, Brian,
Speaker 3: for people who have just gotten started. In the last
Speaker 3: five years, we have seen the absolute best the markets
Speaker 3: can be, and we could have seen the worst. Those
Speaker 3: of you who remember twenty two into twenty three and
Speaker 3: twenty four, you'll remember that you saw your four to
Speaker 3: oh one K grow very very quickly, and it might
Speaker 3: have confused you. That's the pendulum swinging, pendulum swinging back
Speaker 3: the other way, and that's those dollars that you invested
Speaker 3: at the bottom getting a nitro boost all the way
Speaker 3: back to the top. So if you leave it alone,
Speaker 3: you're doing the right thing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're acquiring more stock for less money when it's
Speaker 2: in a downturn. So I like that advice for folks
Speaker 2: to starting out. You're doing it at the right time, right, Congratulations.
Speaker 2: Now you're seeing them all up and down of the
Speaker 2: entire cycle. Now I just wait for it and watch
Speaker 2: your money grow, because it ultimately will. It's possible being
Speaker 2: prying back to talk about apparently one in three folks
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Speaker 2: Hey twenty here fifty five KRCD talk station Brian Thomas.
Speaker 2: One more segment here with Money Monday's Brian James. Here's
Speaker 2: just some frightening statistics on the amount of fraud and
Speaker 2: scam that's going on out there. Brian James.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, so we're seeing a spike.
Speaker 3: I go figure, whenever there is a crazy market activity,
Speaker 3: we wind up with people trying to take advantage. So
Speaker 3: about one in three adults have experienced financial fraud in
Speaker 3: the past twelve months. About two and five have actually
Speaker 3: lost money. So that includes nineteen percent of people who
Speaker 3: lost money because somebody accessed their personal information. At about
Speaker 3: a quarter of them actually sent money themselves to a
Speaker 3: scammer or paid for some kind of phony service or something.
Speaker 3: This isn't new. We've had fraud, of course, there was.
Speaker 3: There were counterfeit currencies as long as there have been currencies.
Speaker 3: We had our friend Charles Ponzi, I remember him, Oh yeah,
Speaker 3: in the eighteenth century, and then ever since it's been
Speaker 3: the rise of telecommunications and social media has just made
Speaker 3: it all louder.
Speaker 1: But the endgame is pretty much still the same.
Speaker 2: It really is. And we talk every week with Dave
Speaker 2: Hatter for Tech Friday at six thirty on Fridays and
Speaker 2: a week doesn't go by, he isn't highlighting or elevating
Speaker 2: another form of fraud our attention and the FBI quite
Speaker 2: often will issue with warnings and alerts about new scams.
Speaker 2: It's just so easy to do because so many people
Speaker 2: are connected with social media and the Internet, and there
Speaker 2: are a lot of gullible people out there, and most
Speaker 2: notably the senior community. I'm not taking a poke at them,
Speaker 2: it's just they tend to be more believing and and
Speaker 2: and and more prone to being subject to these attacks.
Speaker 2: Are we looking at any particular type or style of
Speaker 2: financial fraud that this are highlights?
Speaker 3: Well, I think what we're seeing most you kind of
Speaker 3: hinted at it already, or seniors are being taken advantage of,
Speaker 3: because you know, at some point, for every last one
Speaker 3: of us, the shields go down just a little bit,
Speaker 3: and the scammers out there know that. And there are
Speaker 3: up team ways to get in touch with people nowadays
Speaker 3: and can and convince them how to think a little
Speaker 3: differently using social media, of course. So the ways to
Speaker 3: kind of protect here is if you feel like you
Speaker 3: might be in a situation like this, you might have
Speaker 3: a loved one in a situation like this, then make
Speaker 3: sure you have alerts set up on all of your
Speaker 3: financial accounts. There are ways that you if you look
Speaker 3: deep in the settings and those kinds of things that
Speaker 3: you know, normally people log into their financial sites and
Speaker 3: get what they need and get back out. We'll spend
Speaker 3: some time poor a pot of coffee and look at
Speaker 3: the different bells and whistles inside your credit card provider
Speaker 3: in your bank's website, they will text you if transactions
Speaker 3: are happening, if somebody logs in from a different computer
Speaker 3: that the bank has not seen before. There are a
Speaker 3: lot of ways that you can be informed that something's
Speaker 3: going wrong, and consider having those texts go to somebody
Speaker 3: who isn't you, If you have a trusted adult child,
Speaker 3: or you know, even just anybody, just a second set
Speaker 3: of eyes, just like anything else, can be really really
Speaker 3: helpful and protect us from these things.
Speaker 2: And two factor authentication, changing your passwords, getting a password
Speaker 2: manager that creates really complex passwords that people can't hack into,
Speaker 2: and shut off your credit. I mean you can contact
Speaker 2: trans and Union and Experience and close your credit out
Speaker 2: so no one can you know, can can try to
Speaker 2: open credit in your name. That's something I did years ago. Yeah,
Speaker 2: that's a great point. Freeze your credit.
Speaker 1: You can do that. You can turn it on and off.
Speaker 1: It adds an extra step.
Speaker 3: But if you don't really need to apply for a
Speaker 3: new credit all that often, and most people shouldn't be,
Speaker 3: that's a whole other conversations you are, then Yeah, freeze
Speaker 3: it off and just make it impossible to use.
Speaker 1: One mora' throw out there.
Speaker 3: If you have not logged in or set up your
Speaker 3: own social security profile a my social Security profile, then
Speaker 3: you should go do that.
Speaker 1: You may not be.
Speaker 3: Receiving social Security or maybe you don't have any questions
Speaker 3: about it or whatever, but you should still go claim it.
Speaker 3: That way, you'll know that you're the one who got it.
Speaker 3: That's another way that people are stealing identities.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 3: If someone has never set up their SOBI security profile
Speaker 3: and they get a hold of your SOLFI security number, well,
Speaker 3: they can begin to impersonate you a lot more easily.
Speaker 1: So go set that up and lock it down.
Speaker 2: Well, and they can begin in personing you a lot
Speaker 2: more easily if they have access to all the information
Speaker 2: on your computers. And you know, as Dave points out
Speaker 2: all the time every week, don't click on suspicious links
Speaker 2: or emails. I mean I don't click on I mean
Speaker 2: my friends with my mom sends me links, and my
Speaker 2: friends will send me links, and I am loath to
Speaker 2: click on any of them because it literally could be
Speaker 2: something that would maliciously launch software into my computer.
Speaker 3: Yeah, if you suspect you might get an email that
Speaker 3: looks like your bank, Yeah, it's gonna have the logo,
Speaker 3: it's going to look like something they legitimately sent you.
Speaker 3: If you have a suspicion that maybe this is a
Speaker 3: real thing I need to deal with, don't click that link.
Speaker 1: Log into the bank's website.
Speaker 3: If it's truly an important problem, it'll be the first
Speaker 3: thing in your face and in a form of a
Speaker 3: notification or something like that. But don't click the email
Speaker 3: in or the link inside the email. Go straight to
Speaker 3: the bank or call them and ask if there's anything
Speaker 3: they need or if they're noticing any problems on their end.
Speaker 2: Amen to that. And you got to be very proactive
Speaker 2: on this. And if your proactive, the likelihood of getting
Speaker 2: scammed or having your money ripped off it drops precipitously.
Speaker 2: Brian Jamis appreciate the sound advice as always and it's
Speaker 2: important to get a financial planner that's working in your
Speaker 2: court and feed based financial planets have a fiduciary obligation
Speaker 2: to you to maximize the return on your investment. So
Speaker 2: do that and then you don't have to worry about it.
Speaker 2: Brian James, thanks for the time you spill my listeners
Speaker 2: each and every week. Here for money Monday, and I'll
Speaker 2: look forward to having another discussion with you next week.
Speaker 3: Happy Saint Patrick's Day. May all things stay green all
Speaker 3: day long.
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