1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:01,320 Speaker 1: Your lack. 2 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:04,559 Speaker 2: Welcome to the best sports betting show on the planet. 3 00:00:04,679 --> 00:00:06,519 This is Wager Talk Today and I am your host, 4 00:00:06,559 --> 00:00:10,519 Andy Lang. It is five dollar Tuesday. Every capper has 5 00:00:10,519 --> 00:00:14,560 the best bet up for just five bucks. We've got WNBA, MLB, 6 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:17,039 plenty of opportunities on the board. We're gonna break it 7 00:00:17,039 --> 00:00:20,519 all down, help you find the best spots. Jihnny has 8 00:00:20,559 --> 00:00:22,839 a busy, busy Steam Reports. All of you that love 9 00:00:22,839 --> 00:00:24,600 the Steam Report buckle up. And then g and I 10 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:27,519 are gonna talk about a couple differing views that he 11 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:29,160 and I have, so that should be fun. How keen 12 00:00:29,199 --> 00:00:32,719 Profit's gonna join us break down WNBA the Dream versus 13 00:00:32,799 --> 00:00:34,960 the Aces, and then Steve Marrel is gonna join us. 14 00:00:35,399 --> 00:00:37,560 Red Sox and Philly is one of the most bizarre 15 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:40,039 endings to a game you will ever see last night. 16 00:00:40,759 --> 00:00:42,520 And then Dan and I are gonna break down the 17 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:46,200 Packers nine and a half on their season win total. 18 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:48,840 So thanks for joining us. Everyone, please hit that like button. 19 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:52,359 Let's get started. Let's bring in gann Jeohnny. Understand, we've 20 00:00:52,359 --> 00:00:54,280 got a pretty good morning here in Steam A lot 21 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:55,759 of action. What you got for us so far? 22 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:59,039 Speaker 3: Oh yeah, it's been very very busy so far, subscribers, 23 00:00:59,079 --> 00:01:00,640 you should receive your third. 24 00:01:01,119 --> 00:01:03,320 Speaker 4: You have c bet your third. 25 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 3: You have ce bet And again these lines are moving, 26 00:01:07,719 --> 00:01:10,120 so if you do agree with it, don't hold back. 27 00:01:10,159 --> 00:01:11,000 Speaker 4: This line's gonna move. 28 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:14,480 Speaker 3: It's it's chalk, and it should go off probably like 29 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:16,480 minus three point fifty at least. 30 00:01:16,599 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 4: But I think we got a. 31 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:22,120 Speaker 3: Pretty good number, and real quickly, let me just look. Yeah, 32 00:01:22,239 --> 00:01:26,040 our five percent still line moving in our favor. Always 33 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:28,079 good to see. So there's a five percent of four 34 00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:30,280 percent and a three percent already for. 35 00:01:30,359 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 4: You in MMA. 36 00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:37,959 Speaker 3: Also, more futures came in in NFL. You got that playoff. 37 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:40,040 Will they make the playoffs or not make the playoffs. 38 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:43,159 But here's some steam for today, some actionable information for 39 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:46,280 you guys now. Yesterday, right before first pitch, we placed 40 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:50,000 four series bets. Three of them I used as premium plays. 41 00:01:50,959 --> 00:01:54,280 The one I didn't because we were opposite in Game 42 00:01:54,359 --> 00:01:55,840 one and it worked out in my favor. 43 00:01:55,879 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 4: Here's what I mean. 44 00:01:56,799 --> 00:02:00,120 Speaker 3: We bet the Mets to win the series, very chalky. 45 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:02,920 We bet the Cubs to win the series, very chalky. 46 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:06,920 We bet Saint Louis to win the series. All three 47 00:02:06,959 --> 00:02:10,240 of those I released as premium plays Mets one Game one. 48 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:13,000 Saint Louis won Game one. The Cubs lost Game one, 49 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:14,639 so we need the Cubs to win the next two 50 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:16,560 to win that series. Bet. We need the Mets of 51 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:18,719 Saint Louis to win one of the next two to 52 00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:23,360 win that. Now, we also bet the Yankees right before 53 00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:27,599 first pitch. I didn't release that to subscribers because I 54 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:32,159 was already on Toronto for yesterday. I had Toronto circled 55 00:02:32,159 --> 00:02:34,159 as one of the plays I like one of the 56 00:02:34,199 --> 00:02:37,280 groups that I moved baseball for. They came in on Toronto, 57 00:02:37,719 --> 00:02:39,639 So I ended up betting Toronto. And then, like I 58 00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:42,879 said later on, we got this Yankee series bet. Obviously 59 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:45,000 I moved it because I don't sit on their action, 60 00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:48,759 but I didn't release it the subscribers because we were 61 00:02:48,759 --> 00:02:50,039 already on Toronto in game one. 62 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:53,439 Speaker 4: So that made absolutely no sense. But keep that in mind. 63 00:02:53,479 --> 00:02:56,159 Speaker 3: So two of the teams lost Game one that we 64 00:02:56,199 --> 00:02:59,479 need in the series. That's the Cubbies and that's the Yankees. 65 00:02:59,599 --> 00:03:02,439 Use that information as you see fit. Now here's what 66 00:03:02,479 --> 00:03:06,680 we got bet for today. In WNBA WNBA's back, Baby, 67 00:03:06,719 --> 00:03:09,520 don't overlook the WNBA. I think I'm up almost forty 68 00:03:09,599 --> 00:03:13,960 units in WNBA, so don't overlook that six sixteen Washington 69 00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:16,479 minus one and a half and two. Also a little 70 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:19,240 money line sprinkle action on Washington once it got past 71 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:24,479 that minus two six eighteen, Minnesota minus eleven, eleven and 72 00:03:24,479 --> 00:03:27,400 a half, twelve, twelve and a half thirteen. So somebody's 73 00:03:27,400 --> 00:03:30,360 got to be out because Minnesota got pounded from minus eleven. 74 00:03:30,479 --> 00:03:32,680 The last bet I saw on an account was minus thirteen. 75 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:35,560 And finally, the line's not going to reflect it. And 76 00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:38,840 this is what I'm talking about that there's a lot 77 00:03:38,879 --> 00:03:42,159 of manipulation going on, especially in these smaller markets. If 78 00:03:42,159 --> 00:03:46,240 you look at the betting line for the Indiana fever, 79 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:50,439 it'll look like the favorites the side based on line 80 00:03:50,479 --> 00:03:57,000 movement alone. But that was on the overnight very small 81 00:03:57,120 --> 00:04:01,039 limit bets to move that line, and when they opened 82 00:04:01,039 --> 00:04:05,599 today we blasted Indiana plus eleven and a half and 83 00:04:05,639 --> 00:04:09,159 plus eleven. So if you're just looking at the line screen, 84 00:04:09,599 --> 00:04:12,800 you would probably be put on the opposite side. But again, 85 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:14,479 nothing could be further from the truth. Not telling you 86 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:16,040 how it's going to turn out, but I can tell 87 00:04:16,079 --> 00:04:18,959 you the shriump sign is Indiana, and you know I'll 88 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:20,560 just give it to you now. That's actually the play 89 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:25,120 I released the subscribers. I was thinking about using WNBA 90 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:28,199 as my five percent play because I'm sixty nine percent 91 00:04:28,319 --> 00:04:31,279 on thirty three WNBA bets in twenty twenty five, so 92 00:04:31,319 --> 00:04:34,920 we're running really really well in WNBA. But I just 93 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:37,000 didn't think Indiana, even though it was you know, kind 94 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:39,959 of set up dummied up to get that eleven, I 95 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:43,480 just didn't have a strong opinion myself prior on that side. 96 00:04:43,759 --> 00:04:45,639 So I released it as a three percent play, but 97 00:04:45,759 --> 00:04:48,000 wasn't going to make it the h five dollars play 98 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:51,000 because I isolated a baseball bet that I really really, 99 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:53,600 really really liked. Speaking to baseball, here's what we got 100 00:04:53,639 --> 00:04:55,959 in baseball, So that Indiana was a three percent play 101 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:57,519 in baseball, here's what we got. 102 00:04:58,120 --> 00:04:58,399 Speaker 4: Signs. 103 00:04:58,399 --> 00:05:01,800 Speaker 3: I'm gonna give you all signs fifty six Atlanta minus 104 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:05,600 one oh five minus one ten nine sixty Cleveland minus 105 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:10,319 one twenty five nine fifty three, Cincinnati minus one twenty 106 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:14,279 five uh nine sixty five, The Athletics plus two ten 107 00:05:14,439 --> 00:05:18,759 plus two hundred nine sixty eight, Pittsburgh plus one twenty 108 00:05:19,399 --> 00:05:23,399 nine seventy one LA Angels plus one fifty five and 109 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:26,240 only one total. That's that's the four percent play that 110 00:05:26,319 --> 00:05:29,160 I sent out that I gave out already the subscribers 111 00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:32,360 and is up there for five dollars. Multiple I had 112 00:05:32,399 --> 00:05:35,079 one total circle for today's card. I swear to you 113 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:39,920 one total circle from yesterday, and multiple groups hit that total. 114 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:43,399 I said, my problem, My job's easy. That's the four 115 00:05:43,439 --> 00:05:46,040 percent play, uh, that the five dollars play, so that 116 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:48,639 that's out there already. So I don't have totals, but 117 00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:50,920 those are the size they got some overnight actions, some 118 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:54,439 follow through this morning, and like I said, those are 119 00:05:54,439 --> 00:05:57,879 the series bets we have pending and some WNBA action 120 00:05:58,079 --> 00:06:02,079 for you as well. And there's the NFL and college 121 00:06:02,079 --> 00:06:05,800 football seasons when totals are getting bet each and every day. 122 00:06:05,920 --> 00:06:09,120 So keep your eyes open, watch those lines, pay attention closely, 123 00:06:09,639 --> 00:06:12,600 and hopefully you uncover some gold as well. Like I said, 124 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:14,920 something popped out to Austin yesterday that we hit. So 125 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:18,199 every day, just new stuff coming up in college football 126 00:06:18,199 --> 00:06:19,360 in the NFL. 127 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:21,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, we want to look at injury report here. Johnny 128 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:23,720 asked about the line. Well, Kaitlyn Clark is out. She's 129 00:06:23,759 --> 00:06:26,120 been banged up for a while. Now, this has been 130 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:29,040 a real bummer of a season and aggressive line movement. 131 00:06:29,040 --> 00:06:30,879 When she gets ruled out, I'm not sure it should 132 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:33,759 affect the line that much. She's been fairly ineffective shooting, 133 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:37,759 so maybe overreaction to Kaitlyn Clark. Atkins is still out 134 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:42,560 for Chicago. I'm guessing that's why the movement on Minnesota 135 00:06:42,639 --> 00:06:45,600 and Florida. Yeah, and Howard is out for Atlanta. So 136 00:06:45,639 --> 00:06:47,480 make sure you're paying a ten this big time of 137 00:06:47,519 --> 00:06:48,920 year in wa when you got to be checking the 138 00:06:48,959 --> 00:06:50,759 injury reports. You don't want to get burned with why 139 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:53,240 are we getting sixteen points? Oh, the two best players 140 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:57,560 are hurt, so check those check those injury reports. But 141 00:06:57,600 --> 00:07:00,959 that might explain some of the some of the line moves. Okay, Johnny, 142 00:07:00,959 --> 00:07:03,160 I want to bring this up to you. You and 143 00:07:03,199 --> 00:07:06,199 I have agreed on damn near everything. You and I 144 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:08,240 look at things a little bit different on this topic. 145 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:11,560 And it came up yesterday. You had a bet and 146 00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:13,600 you beat the line, and you said I did my job. 147 00:07:14,199 --> 00:07:16,240 I made the bet and we got the best of 148 00:07:16,279 --> 00:07:19,279 the number. I had a bet where I got the 149 00:07:19,319 --> 00:07:23,040 worst of the number, but mine one. You would say 150 00:07:23,079 --> 00:07:25,399 I didn't make a good bet because I got the 151 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:28,040 absolute worst of the number, and I would say, no, 152 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:31,000 my bet was great because it won. And I look 153 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:33,040 at it as it's a results based business. When we 154 00:07:33,079 --> 00:07:35,519 log into our accounts, a winner is a winner, a 155 00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:37,519 loser is a loser. So you and I look at 156 00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:40,079 it completely different. And there is more than one way 157 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:44,079 to get to a right answer. So let's discuss your 158 00:07:44,199 --> 00:07:46,600 job is to beat the number, and that's what you 159 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:48,160 look at as a great bet. Correct. 160 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:50,519 Speaker 4: Yes, here, because here's what I believe. 161 00:07:50,759 --> 00:07:54,079 Speaker 3: And I learned this after I made enough money where 162 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:57,639 I started investing in other things and not just betting sports. 163 00:07:58,319 --> 00:08:02,079 I realized when I got into stocks, crypto, that kind 164 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:06,519 of trading, that the market's very efficient and it lined 165 00:08:06,560 --> 00:08:09,240 up perfectly with sports and how I learned to win 166 00:08:09,319 --> 00:08:13,040 betting sports. When I started betting, obviously I was booking, 167 00:08:13,199 --> 00:08:17,839 but when I was betting, I was handicapping myself. Okay, win, lose, win, lose, win, lose, 168 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:22,120 until I started working with a betting syndicate and saw 169 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:25,279 what they were doing crushing the line, because when I 170 00:08:25,319 --> 00:08:27,279 didn't get the good line, sometimes I would lose and 171 00:08:27,319 --> 00:08:29,199 they would win. Like I was seeing it in real 172 00:08:29,319 --> 00:08:31,920 time that is, these guys were beating the line and 173 00:08:31,959 --> 00:08:34,960 making money hand over fizz, and all they were talking 174 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:36,039 about was beating that. 175 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:37,759 Speaker 4: Line, beating that line, beating that line. 176 00:08:37,799 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 3: They never taught. These are street guys, so they didn't 177 00:08:40,399 --> 00:08:44,159 talk like traders. But when I got into the trading world, 178 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:47,000 speaking the more guys that were more polished, more educated, 179 00:08:47,279 --> 00:08:51,320 what they leaned on was efficient market hypothesis. 180 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:54,200 Speaker 4: It's called and that means you can't. 181 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:56,720 Speaker 3: It's like, it's very hard for you to beat the 182 00:08:56,799 --> 00:08:59,240 market because as a whole, the market's going to be 183 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:03,240 right more times than wrong, Like the once all the 184 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:06,120 information's factored in, the market's going to be correct more 185 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:09,679 times than wrong. So that's why it's so hard to 186 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:13,600 pick stocks long term and win individually. That's why, just 187 00:09:13,639 --> 00:09:16,120 like with sports betting, ninety nine percent of day traders 188 00:09:16,159 --> 00:09:19,639 lose money long term because of that. Like they're trying 189 00:09:19,639 --> 00:09:22,320 to beat the market, and the market's almost always going 190 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:25,240 to be right because it's got all the information factored 191 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:28,399 into it. So I carry that over to sports to 192 00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:30,840 where it makes perfect sense to me because I know, 193 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:34,159 just a simple example, betting football, we're going to get 194 00:09:34,159 --> 00:09:36,720 the week one lines a week before two weeks before. 195 00:09:36,759 --> 00:09:40,360 What have you that early on? I don't know the weather, 196 00:09:40,639 --> 00:09:42,840 I don't know the injuries. I don't even know if 197 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:44,679 the team won or lost the week prior. I know 198 00:09:44,799 --> 00:09:48,360 nothing like that. I don't know anything. Okay, ten minutes 199 00:09:48,399 --> 00:09:51,080 before the game though, I know all of that. I 200 00:09:51,159 --> 00:09:53,720 know what the weather is, I know who's playing and 201 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:56,720 who's not. All that information is now factored into the line, 202 00:09:57,159 --> 00:10:00,279 So that line should be the sharpest it is because 203 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:03,000 right before the game starts, that's when all the information's 204 00:10:03,039 --> 00:10:04,440 factored into the betting line. 205 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:07,200 Speaker 4: So my conclusion is, once. 206 00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 3: It's factored into the betting line, it's no longer valuable information, 207 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:14,879 kind of like with a with a total, like knowing 208 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:17,080 it's going to snow. If you get down on a 209 00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:20,720 n under before the adjustment you got you it makes sense. 210 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:25,000 But after the line moves from thirty five over under 211 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:28,519 down to thirty one, just because it's snowing isn't helping 212 00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:30,679 you now. But if you got out ahead of that 213 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:33,320 move and you went under thirty five and because of 214 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:35,759 the bad weather the game goes off at thirty one, 215 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:39,879 my conclusion is you beat the market. You got ahead 216 00:10:39,879 --> 00:10:42,600 of where the market's going to conclude this line should 217 00:10:42,639 --> 00:10:44,840 be and if you do that over and over and 218 00:10:44,879 --> 00:10:49,200 over again, you should end up profitable. That's my that's 219 00:10:49,759 --> 00:10:53,919 my defense in CLV closing line value. That is very 220 00:10:53,919 --> 00:10:57,639 hard to argue that the opening line is more efficient than. 221 00:10:57,559 --> 00:10:58,639 Speaker 4: The closing line. 222 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:03,759 Speaker 3: And more importantly, it's also hard to argue that you 223 00:11:03,799 --> 00:11:08,639 can consistently make money not doing that, Meaning if the 224 00:11:08,639 --> 00:11:13,559 line's moving against you, and to consistently make money, I 225 00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:17,320 believe it's impossible. Now there's going to be times again 226 00:11:17,879 --> 00:11:21,759 in the short term, anything's possible. We defy probability all 227 00:11:21,799 --> 00:11:24,320 the time I talk about it. I bring the same 228 00:11:24,639 --> 00:11:27,279 example all the time. At the Roulette Wheel right now 229 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:29,600 down the street from my house as a casino, someone 230 00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:31,919 just hit a number and they got paid thirty five 231 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:34,360 to one. They're happy, they put ten dollars, they won 232 00:11:34,399 --> 00:11:37,080 three hundred fifty dollars. God bless them. But we know 233 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:40,039 that's a bad bet because there's thirty eight numbers on 234 00:11:40,039 --> 00:11:42,440 that Roulett wheel. So they only got paid thirty five 235 00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:45,159 to one. So unless they were getting thirty nine to one, 236 00:11:45,240 --> 00:11:47,639 it wasn't a great bet. If they were getting thirty 237 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:49,399 eight to one, then it was a coin flip fifty 238 00:11:49,399 --> 00:11:51,559 to fifty, no one had an advantage. But since we 239 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:53,840 know they're only getting thirty five to one, we know 240 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:57,000 he placed a terrible bet, but he's still won. I 241 00:11:57,080 --> 00:12:01,639 carry that over to CLV win without CLB, but I 242 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:04,000 don't think you could do it long term. 243 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:07,519 Speaker 2: So I look at it maybe this is just me personally. 244 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:09,399 I look at it that I think me and my 245 00:12:09,519 --> 00:12:12,559 team can do the research that we know a little 246 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:14,360 bit more in the market, and maybe it has to 247 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:15,879 do with that we're betting a little bit more of 248 00:12:15,879 --> 00:12:19,519 the obscure bets, like we're not betting NFL money lines, 249 00:12:19,519 --> 00:12:22,919 we're not betting NFL spreads. But you know, for ex, 250 00:12:23,159 --> 00:12:25,519 we got where do you cash to cricket play this morning? 251 00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:27,960 We knew more than the books did on this one. 252 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:30,080 So I look at it and say, listen, you give 253 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:32,799 me one fight. I may or may not hit it, 254 00:12:32,799 --> 00:12:34,639 but you give me twelve fights on a card to research, 255 00:12:34,679 --> 00:12:36,440 I'm going to find that one that I know more 256 00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:38,919 than the market does, and I just think you give 257 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:42,600 me just one or two little inefficiencies. I believe that 258 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:46,279 my research can outdo the market, and so when I 259 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:47,039 look at it. 260 00:12:47,519 --> 00:12:48,360 Speaker 4: I understand that. 261 00:12:48,399 --> 00:12:50,679 Speaker 3: But why I think you found the advantage is that 262 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:54,159 the market hasn't factored in information that you may incover 263 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:56,960 because so you got to remember where you why you 264 00:12:57,000 --> 00:13:00,799 don't always need that CLV, And you're right, it's because 265 00:13:00,799 --> 00:13:03,480 the book's job isn't to predict the outcome. Like when 266 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:06,039 they put a line as minus seven, they're not saying 267 00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:08,480 teammate is going to beat tm B by seven points. 268 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:12,480 What they're saying is that at minus seven, we're either 269 00:13:12,519 --> 00:13:14,960 going to balance the money, which is we're going to 270 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:17,720 get fifty to fifty on both sides, which makes us 271 00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:20,840 a lock to turn a profit because we're just playing broker, 272 00:13:21,159 --> 00:13:23,240 which is almost impossible to do. They're almost never going 273 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:25,919 to get fifty to fifty on everything. So since we 274 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:28,679 can't get fifty to fifty, that's only in a perfect world. 275 00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:31,399 Speaker 4: The other way we could ensure we. 276 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:35,679 Speaker 3: Profit is by shading our line towards biases and making 277 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:38,039 sure they're getting the worst of it, Like they're already 278 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:41,080 getting the worst of it. By laying eleven to win ten, 279 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:42,960 we already have a four and a half percent edge 280 00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:46,240 on them as the book. Now, though I could make 281 00:13:46,279 --> 00:13:48,720 that a six or seven or eight percent edge by 282 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:51,720 shading it towards your biases of what we saw last 283 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:54,840 of you know a player, an overreaction to what a 284 00:13:54,879 --> 00:13:58,639 player's worth, and you being in a stuke kapper maybe like. 285 00:13:58,759 --> 00:14:00,759 Speaker 4: Kaitlin Clark ain't worth that. 286 00:14:00,879 --> 00:14:03,519 Speaker 3: The book may know that as well, and the book 287 00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:05,600 may know that also, but be like, you know what, 288 00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:07,879 we have to do that to protect ourselves. We know 289 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:09,879 she's not worth eight points, but if we only make 290 00:14:09,919 --> 00:14:12,519 it six points, we're gonna get blasted with nothing but 291 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:13,919 money on that side. 292 00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:15,720 Speaker 4: So let's do that. 293 00:14:15,799 --> 00:14:17,440 Speaker 3: And it's okay if guys like you come in and 294 00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:20,000 get the best of it in those situations. I agree 295 00:14:20,039 --> 00:14:22,639 with you. CLV is not going to be the end 296 00:14:22,639 --> 00:14:27,720 all be all, But in a big picture theme. 297 00:14:28,039 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 4: Like I don't think, I think even you. 298 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:32,480 Speaker 3: I bet if you look at your last thousand bets, 299 00:14:33,159 --> 00:14:35,039 I would I would say you beat the closing line 300 00:14:35,039 --> 00:14:37,320 at least seventy percent of the time. I would even 301 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:38,840 the most obscure ones. 302 00:14:38,879 --> 00:14:41,759 Speaker 2: Most likely especially in the props market, I would say 303 00:14:41,799 --> 00:14:44,600 you're a lock to do that, and that's a that's 304 00:14:44,639 --> 00:14:45,399 a low figure. 305 00:14:45,519 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 3: Based on your results over the last three four years, 306 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:50,039 I would say it's even higher than that. It's just 307 00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:54,320 you trust yourself enough that you that that doesn't Sometimes 308 00:14:54,399 --> 00:14:57,320 you will say they are wrong, that number is off still, 309 00:14:57,519 --> 00:14:58,320 and I respect that. 310 00:14:58,399 --> 00:15:01,120 Speaker 4: I love guys to do that, love guys that could 311 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:05,320 do that, like yeah, and I think, don't change, don't change. 312 00:15:05,799 --> 00:15:09,080 Speaker 2: Ain't changing. Yeah, And I you know, maybe the other 313 00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:11,399 thing is because we're so low volume. Like you give 314 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:13,240 me twelve fights, and if I can make money off 315 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:15,120 of one, that's all I care about. You probably can 316 00:15:15,159 --> 00:15:17,679 find eight lines that you can beat it. And so 317 00:15:17,879 --> 00:15:20,320 the higher volume you have a much better chance to 318 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:22,960 do that. I'm not gonna win nine out of twelve 319 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:27,279 bets with research on a UFC card. That's pretty much impossible. 320 00:15:27,399 --> 00:15:30,080 So it's an interesting topic. It's I love it. 321 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:31,240 Speaker 4: I love it. I love it. 322 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:35,159 Speaker 2: It's differing opinions, but it's more than one way to get, 323 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:36,759 you know, winning tickets to the window. And we will 324 00:15:36,799 --> 00:15:39,840 absolutely continue this conversation because the more we can talk 325 00:15:39,879 --> 00:15:42,240 about this and more we can uh. I don't wosta 326 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:44,200 say debate, but just show our differing O. 327 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:48,000 Speaker 3: You see other perspective, bro, Listen. I used to think 328 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:50,639 and I know there's other great guests waiting to be on. 329 00:15:50,919 --> 00:15:54,039 But I was so anti Parlane in MMA, and I 330 00:15:54,159 --> 00:15:56,840 was actually shown long term results of a better that 331 00:15:56,919 --> 00:15:59,240 made money betting MMA parlays. 332 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:00,840 Speaker 4: How am I going to tell this guy not to 333 00:16:00,879 --> 00:16:01,240 do that? 334 00:16:01,879 --> 00:16:04,440 Speaker 3: You have a statistical significant sample size that says you 335 00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:06,840 have an edge over those two fighter Parlay. 336 00:16:06,519 --> 00:16:07,399 Speaker 2: So have at it. 337 00:16:07,519 --> 00:16:09,559 Speaker 4: Who am I to tell you different? I don't. 338 00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:11,440 Speaker 3: I don't have all the answers. I told what works 339 00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:13,360 for me. How I've been able to make my little 340 00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:15,759 corner of the world work for me. And you know, 341 00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:19,039 once you figure it out, bro, keep doing what you're doing. 342 00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:19,759 Speaker 4: And you have it. 343 00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:22,240 Speaker 3: Figured out, obviously, you have a big enough sample size 344 00:16:22,279 --> 00:16:25,240 to prove that. So keep approach it the way it 345 00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:28,679 makes sense to you. Bro, Just it makes sense to you. 346 00:16:28,679 --> 00:16:30,200 You don't have to defend it at all. 347 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:33,399 Speaker 2: Yep, all right, Well we're gonna continue this conversation. It's 348 00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:35,200 five dollars Tuesday, teller, or what do you have about 349 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:35,600 for clients? 350 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:37,840 Speaker 4: I think you're Yeah, there's that five dollar MLB play. 351 00:16:37,919 --> 00:16:39,399 I love this play. I swear to you. 352 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:41,679 Speaker 3: Even a cash bet at the window, which you know 353 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:43,919 I lost the last cash bet at the window on 354 00:16:44,000 --> 00:16:47,639 Saturday in MMA, But this one was worth a definite 355 00:16:47,639 --> 00:16:49,960 cash bet. Need to get that back. So there's the 356 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:53,320 four percent playoff only for five dollars WNB I gave 357 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:57,759 you for free. It's Indiana plus eleven NFL college football. 358 00:16:57,799 --> 00:17:00,000 There's about nine or ten picks in there right now 359 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:01,960 with a five percent. The rest are all four percents. 360 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:04,359 Those are really strongness. While we're tying up money, and of. 361 00:17:04,319 --> 00:17:06,920 Speaker 4: Course the UFC package is up for Saturday. It's early. 362 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:11,279 Speaker 3: UFC cards goes nine am Pacific, so it's an early card. 363 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:13,279 The five percents off there, four percents in there, three 364 00:17:13,279 --> 00:17:16,119 percents on there. Bounce back good week this week, So 365 00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:18,839 best luck to everyone again, thanks for giving me extra minutes. 366 00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:20,519 Speaker 4: I know skeets are ready to come on. 367 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:22,480 Speaker 3: I know you got a lot of good guys coming up, 368 00:17:22,559 --> 00:17:25,240 so make sure you guys stick around. 369 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:29,319 Speaker 2: Thank you all right, thank you Giohnny, Yeah, Johnny. Detroit 370 00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:32,799 books very rarely ever kick someone for winning. They boot 371 00:17:32,839 --> 00:17:35,160 you if they see you have an advantage on them 372 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:36,920 on the numbers they post. Yeah. We tell people all 373 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:39,200 this time, if you're betting on the legal books, do 374 00:17:39,279 --> 00:17:41,680 not beat the number on props. Don't do it. You 375 00:17:41,759 --> 00:17:46,039 will get your book limited very very quick, so be 376 00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:48,319 careful with that. So all right, thanks guys, this is 377 00:17:48,319 --> 00:17:50,839 a great discussion. Listen, leave us a comment, tell us 378 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:53,160 your opinion on this topic, and tell us if you're 379 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:55,759 enjoying this. I think it's important that we keep talking 380 00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:58,359 about these things. Like we mentioned before, it is five 381 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:02,200 dollars Tuesday, perfect time to new handicappers a ride with 382 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:05,160 your good old favorites. Every handicapper has a five dollars 383 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:08,759 play up, no limit, Grab as many as you want. MLB, 384 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:11,640 sure there's a ton, I'm sure there's WNBA or may 385 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:14,680 be golf. I have a UFC best bet that is up. 386 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:18,160 We've got something for everyone. Take advantage of today's opportunities, 387 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:21,799 explore some new styles, and as always, bet responsibly. Make 388 00:18:21,799 --> 00:18:23,599 sure we don't have a huge chunk of our bank 389 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:26,039 roll involved in just some of these five dollars plays. 390 00:18:26,079 --> 00:18:28,480 But it's five dollars Tuesday, don't let it pass you by. 391 00:18:29,839 --> 00:18:31,839 Let's bring on hookeeen profit and then we'll do all 392 00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:35,359 around the world. Let's talk a little WNBA with our 393 00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:39,519 good friend here, Keem. How are you doing, sir? How 394 00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:42,319 was your weekend? WNBA was on break, But now we're 395 00:18:42,319 --> 00:18:43,880 back in full swing. How are you, sir? 396 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 5: I've been better, but I'm okay. I enjoyed my little 397 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:51,559 time off from WNBA, I'll say that. And I enjoy 398 00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:54,039 some of the good conversation you guys had before I 399 00:18:54,079 --> 00:18:54,440 came on. 400 00:18:54,559 --> 00:18:57,200 Speaker 2: So good stuff. I appreciate it. What's your take? 401 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:01,880 Speaker 5: A lot of different opinions, but I'll say this, I 402 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:05,279 think on different sports, CoV is more important than others 403 00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:10,359 smaller markets. I don't think it matters as much. And 404 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:14,160 I'll say me specifically this season, I've beaten a lot 405 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:17,240 of lines as far as totals in WNBA, I might 406 00:19:17,279 --> 00:19:20,160 have won two of them, so I don't I'm more 407 00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:22,680 about winning the tickets. I don't care if I you know, 408 00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:24,519 I don't. If I beat the line and I lose, 409 00:19:24,559 --> 00:19:27,559 it doesn't do anything for me. So I just want 410 00:19:27,559 --> 00:19:28,400 to pick winners. 411 00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:32,039 Speaker 2: That's what I believe in as well. So all right, Ski, 412 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:35,039 We've got a lot of games tonight. We've got Aces 413 00:19:35,039 --> 00:19:36,839 in the dream. Can you talk to Aces in the 414 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:38,240 dream for us real quick? And I know you got 415 00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:40,279 some props in the fever as well? Or do we 416 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:41,279 just need to go to the fever? 417 00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:43,799 Speaker 5: No, that's all good. We'll talk a little bit of this, 418 00:19:43,839 --> 00:19:46,799 and Johanni he can talk as long as he wants. 419 00:19:46,839 --> 00:19:48,359 Whenever you see me on the show. You know, I'm 420 00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:51,440 not the most long winded person in general, but I 421 00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:54,559 can talk to any WNBA or basketball anytime. So this game, 422 00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:57,519 I'll say, you have two of the stars missing for 423 00:19:57,559 --> 00:20:00,920 both of these teams. Atlanta Dream will be with Ryan Howard, 424 00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:04,799 she's a big offensive piece for them. And Las Vegas. 425 00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:05,720 Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure. 426 00:20:05,759 --> 00:20:08,119 Speaker 5: I mean, I'm not expecting Jackie Young to be out there. 427 00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:11,319 She's listed as game time decision the game before the break. 428 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:14,559 She went down in the fourth quarter and it was 429 00:20:14,599 --> 00:20:17,240 a hip injury. She did suit up for All Star, 430 00:20:17,319 --> 00:20:19,359 but didn't really play, just you know, go out there 431 00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:20,839 for a one minute so she can be named an 432 00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:23,160 All Star. So when I see stuff like that, it 433 00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:25,160 makes me think she's not gonna play. And if you 434 00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:28,000 watch the end of that Aces versus Wings game, you 435 00:20:28,079 --> 00:20:30,079 saw how and if you just know that the Aces 436 00:20:30,079 --> 00:20:32,839 in general, you know how terrible they look offensively without 437 00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:36,920 Jackie Young. I mean, it's not a whole lot of playmaking, 438 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:37,519 you can trust. 439 00:20:37,599 --> 00:20:37,799 Speaker 1: I know. 440 00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:41,640 Speaker 5: Chelsea Grays is called the point god, but she's getting 441 00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:44,359 up there and things aren't looking the same. So I 442 00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:47,599 do think the Aces are the more hungry team coming 443 00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:49,279 into the break. They were trying to make it to 444 00:20:49,319 --> 00:20:51,920 five hundred. They got there after a disappointing start to 445 00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:54,839 the season. Now you know they're not satisfied just being 446 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:56,839 at five hundred. I think they still have more to. 447 00:20:56,839 --> 00:20:57,680 Speaker 2: Prove being at home. 448 00:20:57,799 --> 00:21:01,480 Speaker 5: So if you get Jackie Young in this game, I 449 00:21:01,559 --> 00:21:04,079 absolutely would love the Aces. But this is one where 450 00:21:04,079 --> 00:21:05,880 I have to wait and see for the injury report 451 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:10,599 to pick aside as far as the total, Again, both 452 00:21:10,599 --> 00:21:13,440 of those players who will be out are very important 453 00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:15,519 for the offensive end. But what I will say is 454 00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:20,400 having four days off, I mean, these teams knew nine 455 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:22,680 times out of ten that they're going to be without them, 456 00:21:22,759 --> 00:21:24,880 so I think they'll have a game plan. I also 457 00:21:25,039 --> 00:21:27,920 think that after all Star break, you know, but both 458 00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:30,279 teams having so much time off, I don't think defense 459 00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:32,960 is the number one priority. Like, I don't think you're 460 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:35,200 going to see the best defensive effort from either team, 461 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:39,119 So I'll lean over. But again, I really want to 462 00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:42,759 see I really want to see Jackie Young status in 463 00:21:42,799 --> 00:21:43,240 this game. 464 00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:46,839 Speaker 2: All right, let's talk a little bit about the Fever. 465 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:48,720 I know you got some props in this one. Caitlyn 466 00:21:48,799 --> 00:21:51,039 Clark is out. We got to wait on the injury report, 467 00:21:51,079 --> 00:21:53,559 but we do know the injury report in this Fever game. 468 00:21:53,559 --> 00:21:54,960 What props are you looking at in this one? 469 00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm looking at a few, But I'll say, first off, 470 00:21:58,599 --> 00:22:01,160 you said Kaitlyn Clark is out. That immediately makes me 471 00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:05,799 think about Ari McDonald. The first game she played when 472 00:22:05,839 --> 00:22:08,039 she was signed to the team, she didn't hit her 473 00:22:08,039 --> 00:22:10,240 as his prop. But the four games after that without 474 00:22:10,319 --> 00:22:12,559 Kaitlyn Clark, she hit it every single time. She had 475 00:22:12,599 --> 00:22:15,640 five plus I think she had seven eight, So she's 476 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:18,880 a really good distributor. They like to play up tempo. 477 00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:20,599 I think four and a half is not a tough 478 00:22:20,599 --> 00:22:22,880 ass for her. And also, if the Fever are going 479 00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:25,240 to be in this game, you're gonna need some people 480 00:22:25,279 --> 00:22:30,640 to score. Kelsey Mitchell, I want to say, without Kaitlyn Clark, 481 00:22:30,839 --> 00:22:33,200 she's averaging a little bit over twenty one points per game. 482 00:22:34,079 --> 00:22:36,680 Kaitlyn Clark has missed I believe, ten games so far 483 00:22:36,759 --> 00:22:41,319 this season, and Kelsey Mitchell I believe has had nineteen 484 00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:42,279 plus and. 485 00:22:42,279 --> 00:22:42,920 Speaker 2: Nine of them. 486 00:22:43,519 --> 00:22:45,119 Speaker 5: Speaking off the top of my head, but you get 487 00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:46,519 the point. If the Fever are going to be in 488 00:22:46,559 --> 00:22:48,960 the game without Kaitlyn Clark out there, you're gonna need 489 00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:51,759 already to distribute. You're gonna need Kelsey Mitchell to score. 490 00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:53,680 Those are the two props that I'm looking at for 491 00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:54,119 that game. 492 00:22:55,039 --> 00:22:57,920 Speaker 2: I love it. I love It's five dollars Tuesday, Ski, 493 00:22:57,960 --> 00:22:59,319 What do you have up for clients? 494 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,599 Speaker 5: I do have a top play in the WNBA. It 495 00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:06,440 is a total for tonight, and I have three. I mean, 496 00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:09,839 if you know about the systems that I put out there, 497 00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:11,640 I have three of them that line up on this play. 498 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:13,519 So if you want to be involved, you can find 499 00:23:13,519 --> 00:23:16,160 it at my page wt dot bus, Bash, last HP 500 00:23:16,759 --> 00:23:19,839 and I will be live with Robbino in about an hour. 501 00:23:20,079 --> 00:23:22,480 We'll go through all five w NBA games, break them 502 00:23:22,519 --> 00:23:24,720 down a little bit more detail, and see if we 503 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:26,519 can find some more winners. So check us out over 504 00:23:26,519 --> 00:23:29,480 there in an hour and check out my five dollars 505 00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:31,079 Tuesday play. 506 00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:35,440 Speaker 2: Ski profit WNBA is back. Thank you so much for 507 00:23:35,519 --> 00:23:37,599 joining us. Don't forget to get that five dollars play 508 00:23:38,079 --> 00:23:41,920 over at wagertalk dot com. From Ski, Let's go all 509 00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:45,880 around the world. Let's take a look at some free 510 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:49,839 plays that we have up. We've got we got a 511 00:23:49,839 --> 00:23:53,039 couple of baseball plays, and then we're gonna do a 512 00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,680 soccer play from our good friend Pavlos. We're gonna start 513 00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,640 with Drew Martin's Yankees at Blue Jays. Play likes the 514 00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:00,640 Blue Jays on the money line. Blue Jay is one 515 00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:03,279 of the hottest lineups coming out of the break. Eighteen 516 00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:07,039 runs in three games against the Giants. Andrew Martin give says, 517 00:24:07,279 --> 00:24:10,519 give us a slight starting pitching advantage to Scherzer and 518 00:24:10,599 --> 00:24:13,400 a slight edge in the bullpen. Blue Jays thirty five 519 00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:16,000 and sixteen at home. So he likes the Blue Jays. 520 00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:19,240 And then we're going to go to soccer the Independente 521 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:23,000 vale Vaya. Sorry at Vasco de Gama that was about 522 00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:26,759 as American as a pronunciation gets Sorry about that, but 523 00:24:26,799 --> 00:24:30,640 Pablos likes the first half to go over one. Vosco 524 00:24:30,759 --> 00:24:33,319 needs to win this game by four or more goals 525 00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:35,160 to have a chance at advancing, so they're going to 526 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:39,039 be pushing the pace. First half goals in Vasco's Code 527 00:24:39,039 --> 00:24:42,079 Americana matches are three, zero and one, and first half 528 00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,480 goals in VIA's road matches are five too. And one. 529 00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:46,400 So we have a lot of trends that like early 530 00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:48,640 goals in this game, and then we'll do the Reds 531 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:51,880 in the Nationals. I really like the Nationals over three 532 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:54,319 and a half on their team total. They basically had 533 00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:57,119 no offense in three games against San Diego, but they 534 00:24:57,119 --> 00:25:00,440 scored ten last night against Cincy. Burns's pitch for the 535 00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:02,720 Reds six point nine one ERA. He had a really 536 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:04,880 good start last time out, but that was against Colorado. 537 00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:08,799 Here's a big thing, Cincinnati fifteenth and bullpen. They used 538 00:25:08,839 --> 00:25:13,920 seven pitchers last night, so their bullpen is absolutely tapped. 539 00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:16,400 I think the national is not a great offense, but 540 00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:18,440 this is a really really good spot coming off a 541 00:25:18,519 --> 00:25:21,319 nice offensive outing last night. So I mean the Nationals 542 00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:25,200 over three and a half on their team total. Let's 543 00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:29,480 bring in Steve Merrill. We're gonna talk Red Sox and Phillies. 544 00:25:29,599 --> 00:25:33,680 We got Fits for Boston, we got Sanchez for Philly, 545 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:38,440 and Steve, first time in fifty years that we've had 546 00:25:38,799 --> 00:25:40,319 a a Blincoln. 547 00:25:40,599 --> 00:25:43,400 Speaker 6: I love you so much on five Kiss camp. 548 00:25:51,279 --> 00:25:54,559 Speaker 2: Great. Now Steve has to step down from his post 549 00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:55,559 at Wager Talk. 550 00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:59,079 Speaker 6: True story this is how Johnny Detroit lost his first 551 00:25:59,079 --> 00:26:01,920 CEO job at a run DMC concert in nineteen eighty six. 552 00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:07,680 Speaker 2: Damn, wouldn't you know it? That's great, Steve. I love 553 00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:10,240 the kiss camp. It's amazing. See see I was gonna 554 00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,759 try and match you with your five dollars. I was gonna, 555 00:26:12,799 --> 00:26:17,559 but like, quarters doesn't exact the quarters. Look at that 556 00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:22,759 pop master doesn't. It's not as sexy as when you 557 00:26:22,799 --> 00:26:26,400 bring out a five dollars bill. So I was smashed. 558 00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:31,160 Whatever I won, all right, I'm like. 559 00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:33,319 Speaker 6: I'm like that, whatever, Ceo. I don't hide my love. 560 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:35,960 Abe and I are an open or an open book. 561 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:38,359 I don't hide for money. 562 00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:43,319 Speaker 2: I don't hide it exactly. Let's talk this. I mean, 563 00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:46,279 first off, what a bizarre ending last night. Catch your 564 00:26:46,279 --> 00:26:50,119 interference walk off loss for Boston, first time in fifty years. 565 00:26:50,279 --> 00:26:52,400 Surely you're going to take that into your handicapping on 566 00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:57,599 this game. Catch your advantage for you have that prop. 567 00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:59,559 Speaker 6: You're the prop master. What were the odds on that prop? 568 00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:02,400 Speaker 2: I didn't see that one. Most books didn't have it. 569 00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:05,400 All right, Well, let's talk about this game fits for Boston, Sanchester, 570 00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:09,039 Phillips Philly minus won ninety five. That's the favorite here 571 00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:11,759 over under eight and a half. What's your breakdown on 572 00:27:11,799 --> 00:27:12,240 this game? 573 00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:15,200 Speaker 6: So neither one of these offenses really hitting the ball 574 00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:17,119 that well. The Red Sox have had single digit hits 575 00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:19,240 in eight straight games. They've gone under six of those 576 00:27:19,279 --> 00:27:21,640 last eight. Even before the break, the Phillies had that 577 00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:25,920 seventeen hit breakout against Verlander the Giants back the last 578 00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:27,920 day of the first half, the last Sunday before the 579 00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,079 All Star break, or I'm sorry, not last Sunday. It 580 00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:32,000 was on the ninth. It was a couple of weeks ago. 581 00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:33,400 But I bring that up because if you look at 582 00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:35,880 the Phillies otherwise eleven of there are other twelve games. 583 00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:38,559 Every other game except that one, they've had single digit hits, 584 00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:41,880 even though they've gone over three the last four. What's 585 00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:43,680 tricky about this game though, Andy, And by the way, 586 00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:45,799 I do leave Phillies in this one. I would probably 587 00:27:45,839 --> 00:27:47,839 play them run line minus one and a half around 588 00:27:47,839 --> 00:27:50,480 even money did not work out last night. They got 589 00:27:50,519 --> 00:27:52,839 the three to two win, didn't cover the run line. Well, 590 00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,240 gives me hesitation. What leaves us off my client card 591 00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:57,359 tonight is the fact that the Red Sox have been 592 00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:00,960 really good against left handed pitchers this year, and Tokyo 593 00:28:01,039 --> 00:28:03,119 Brandon and I talked about this on last call last 594 00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:06,119 weekend when I guest host, and I asked him, and 595 00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:08,160 he's a great baseball handicapper. You know, I was number 596 00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:10,039 one last year and units won in Major League Baseball. 597 00:28:10,079 --> 00:28:11,519 He's been number one, like for three years in a 598 00:28:11,599 --> 00:28:14,319 road combined. And neither one of us rely much on 599 00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:17,000 lefty righty stats. And Tokyo had a great point he's 600 00:28:17,039 --> 00:28:19,480 like those are against other pitchers, and I do agree 601 00:28:19,519 --> 00:28:21,640 with that. With that said, though, it is still a 602 00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:23,039 kind of a little bit of a filter that I 603 00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,359 use when looking at games. And I just wanted to 604 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:28,079 point this out that the Red Sox this year against lefties, 605 00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:30,079 especially on the road, had been much better, and in fact, 606 00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:33,000 overall in all road games this year, they're averaging about 607 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:35,279 four point three runs a game. They're averaging five point 608 00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,960 nine per nine innings against lefties, batting two forty against 609 00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:41,000 lefties on the road, against everyone on the road, two 610 00:28:41,119 --> 00:28:44,480 sixty seven against lefties, So it's about twenty five to 611 00:28:44,519 --> 00:28:47,279 two thirty against right handed pitchers. How do we use 612 00:28:47,279 --> 00:28:49,640 that to our advantage? Well, maybe a first five inning 613 00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:51,799 play with the Red Sox instead of a full game, 614 00:28:51,839 --> 00:28:53,960 you get him at plus one minus one fifteen in 615 00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:56,319 the first five. You get him at plus money plus 616 00:28:56,319 --> 00:28:58,480 one twenty on a half run. So I do like 617 00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:00,680 the Phillies overall in the full game. If you are 618 00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:02,640 looking Red Sox, I think you're much better off playing 619 00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:04,799 them first five or playing them early. And for my 620 00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:07,720 official free play for this game, I'll give you Red 621 00:29:07,759 --> 00:29:10,039 Sox over one and a half runs in the first 622 00:29:10,039 --> 00:29:12,200 five innings. Now, I know Sanchez is a good pitcher, 623 00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:13,799 but once again, the Red Sox have been lightening up 624 00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:16,079 lefties all season. You never know what you're gonna get 625 00:29:16,119 --> 00:29:17,720 with the bullpen in the second half of the game, 626 00:29:18,079 --> 00:29:19,880 but we're gonna get a lefty for the first five innings. 627 00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:22,079 I'm pretty confident of that with Sanchez on the mound. 628 00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:24,720 So why not play the team total over one and 629 00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:26,599 a half? It's three and a half for the game, 630 00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:28,519 it's just one and a half for the first five innings. 631 00:29:28,519 --> 00:29:31,039 I don't think I've ever given out a first five 632 00:29:31,119 --> 00:29:33,240 team total over one and a half. And if you 633 00:29:33,279 --> 00:29:35,279 beat these consistently, you might get banned from your book 634 00:29:35,279 --> 00:29:36,640 as well, But I think it's a good chance to 635 00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:38,039 beat is not all we need is the Red Sox 636 00:29:38,079 --> 00:29:40,319 to get to two runs in the first five innings. 637 00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:44,480 Speaker 2: I love the first five innings team total. I almost 638 00:29:44,519 --> 00:29:46,839 did the Nationals over one and a half. I decided 639 00:29:46,839 --> 00:29:49,640 to go at the full game. But Rakesh wants to 640 00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,319 know what about the Phillies team total over four and 641 00:29:52,319 --> 00:29:54,960 a half today? They three and a half. Moved to 642 00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:56,559 four and a half. Is a big move, Steve? Is 643 00:29:56,559 --> 00:29:59,480 that a little too risky to play pass? Or you 644 00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:00,720 want to sprea on that one? 645 00:30:01,599 --> 00:30:03,680 Speaker 6: So they got to three last night in extra innings 646 00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:05,880 and ten they only got to two against the Angels 647 00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,240 on Sunday. They did get to five against the Angels 648 00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,319 on Friday, but they had two, four to two, three 649 00:30:10,359 --> 00:30:12,359 and one and four of their previous five games before 650 00:30:12,359 --> 00:30:14,960 the break. As I said earlier, they've had single digit 651 00:30:15,039 --> 00:30:17,799 hitch in eleven of their last twelve games. So they're 652 00:30:17,839 --> 00:30:20,000 not exactly lighting the ball up, to say the least. 653 00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:22,599 I do think they get a favorable pitching matchup. And 654 00:30:22,599 --> 00:30:24,000 that's one of the reasons I do like the Phillies 655 00:30:24,039 --> 00:30:26,880 full game is Richard Fits is not going to give 656 00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:29,759 the Phillies Fits. How do you like that four point 657 00:30:29,759 --> 00:30:32,400 three era four point two over his last seven starts 658 00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:34,359 going back to early April. He was out of the 659 00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:38,799 rotation for late April and most of May. Since he's 660 00:30:38,839 --> 00:30:41,400 come back mediocre results. I will say this though, Andy, 661 00:30:41,559 --> 00:30:44,200 his numbers are probably better than his overall numbers because 662 00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:47,279 he had that terrible outing second time he returned back 663 00:30:47,319 --> 00:30:50,759 on June second gave up six runs, five earned in 664 00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,519 one inning. So if you take that out of the equation, 665 00:30:53,759 --> 00:30:55,720 maybe Fits is a little bit better than his overall 666 00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,640 seasonal numbers. I need to see more for him first, 667 00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:01,160 so but yeah, the Phillies offense is not in great 668 00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:03,279 current form, and Fits maybe a little bit better than 669 00:31:03,279 --> 00:31:05,319 that overall four point two era if you take out 670 00:31:05,359 --> 00:31:06,720 that one really bad start. 671 00:31:07,599 --> 00:31:09,559 Speaker 2: And before we let you go, any teams you got 672 00:31:09,559 --> 00:31:11,240 your eye on second half of the season could be 673 00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:13,160 a team you're looking to bet on, team you're looking 674 00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:16,480 to bet against, any any teams that are kind of 675 00:31:16,559 --> 00:31:18,880 jumping off the page here where you're like, eh, the 676 00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:20,640 team's overvalued or undervalued. 677 00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:22,960 Speaker 6: Well you and I've talked a lot about this about 678 00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:25,000 the crazy American League East, how the Blue Jays are 679 00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:27,440 barely a positive run differential and they're winning the division. 680 00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:29,680 The Yankee you know one hundred and nine net run still, 681 00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:32,079 but I don't know. Something just doesn't seem right with 682 00:31:32,119 --> 00:31:34,480 the Yanks. They have gone six to four their last ten. 683 00:31:34,519 --> 00:31:37,799 Now after having that slide, blue Jays will keep winning 684 00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:40,079 seven out of their last ten, four straight. They're now 685 00:31:40,119 --> 00:31:43,000 four games up. I still think when all is said 686 00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:44,599 and done, the Blue Jays are going to regress a 687 00:31:44,599 --> 00:31:46,640 little bit. But the one thing gives me pause for 688 00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:48,319 concern there is the Blue Jays are thirty two and 689 00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:51,440 twenty five against winning teams. Yankees are only twenty eight 690 00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:54,720 and twenty nine. So you know, maybe Toronto is for real. 691 00:31:54,799 --> 00:31:57,359 We'll find out. In the National League, I still think 692 00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:59,400 the Dodgers are probably a play on team. They've only 693 00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:03,079 won three of their last ten games, but they're really loaded, 694 00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:05,319 and I think they're gonna catch lightning here at some point. 695 00:32:05,319 --> 00:32:06,880 They kind of did it last year. But once again, 696 00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:08,839 the concern I have with the Dodgers, like the Yankees, 697 00:32:08,839 --> 00:32:12,839 they're below five hundred against winning teams. In fact, the 698 00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:15,440 only team in that division that has a winning record 699 00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:18,880 against winning competition is the Giants. Padres are twelve games 700 00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:21,119 below five hundred. Giants are actually twenty eight and twenty 701 00:32:21,119 --> 00:32:23,279 five so San Fran a little bit of a play 702 00:32:23,279 --> 00:32:24,920 on team for me, But I think the Dodgers still 703 00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:26,680 pull away and make a run here in the near future. 704 00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:31,559 Speaker 2: Okay, do that segment real quick again. The winning records 705 00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:34,519 against winning teams in the Giants, Do that again real quick. 706 00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:38,039 Speaker 6: So in the National League West, only one team has 707 00:32:38,079 --> 00:32:40,799 a winning record against above five hundred opponents. It's not 708 00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:43,480 the Dodgers, it's not the Padres. It's the San Francisco 709 00:32:43,559 --> 00:32:46,920 Giants twenty eight and twenty five, Dodgers twenty four and 710 00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:50,839 twenty seven, but the Padres twenty and thirty two against 711 00:32:50,839 --> 00:32:53,680 winning teams. That Diamondbacks are thirty and thirty two. So 712 00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:56,359 in that case, you can maybe say San Diego is 713 00:32:56,359 --> 00:32:58,000 also a little bit of an overrated team. And by 714 00:32:58,039 --> 00:33:01,160 the way, they only have a plus eighteen undifferential they 715 00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:03,759 should be fifty two and forty eight instead of fifty 716 00:33:03,759 --> 00:33:06,200 five and forty five. So Padre is probably overachieving a 717 00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:06,599 little bit. 718 00:33:07,759 --> 00:33:11,000 Speaker 2: That's that's great stuff, Steve. That is really valuable information 719 00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:13,960 to know. You gotta be careful when you're playing these Dodgers, 720 00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:15,960 and you know the Dodgers are gonna be favorites in 721 00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:21,079 those games, So you know, these public teams overvalued in 722 00:33:21,119 --> 00:33:23,839 some of these matchups. That's it's a really really good 723 00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:27,039 look there. So five dollars Tuesday, Steve, what do you 724 00:33:27,039 --> 00:33:28,079 have up for clients? 725 00:33:28,599 --> 00:33:30,799 Speaker 6: So we have an advanced NFL five dollars play which 726 00:33:30,799 --> 00:33:32,960 I put up last week in NFL Season win Total. 727 00:33:33,279 --> 00:33:34,839 It's the only one I've released all year. It's my 728 00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:36,799 favorite win total of the season. That is up for 729 00:33:36,839 --> 00:33:39,160 five dollars right now, and also going to have a 730 00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:41,599 strong Baseball best bet because that five dollars NFL play 731 00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:44,039 is up all summer, So this is actually a rare 732 00:33:44,039 --> 00:33:46,279 opportunity to get two five dollars best bets. My top 733 00:33:46,319 --> 00:33:49,200 baseball best bet tonight. And also that NFL total play 734 00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:50,960 if you didn't get it last week, is still available 735 00:33:51,079 --> 00:33:53,440 really like this season wins play, and by the way, 736 00:33:53,519 --> 00:33:55,319 free plays every day as well. You know, the last 737 00:33:55,319 --> 00:33:57,039 cup for my best bet card always goes up as 738 00:33:57,039 --> 00:33:59,359 a bonus free play, and it is in that Yankees 739 00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:01,920 blue Jays tonight that I just talked about. So get 740 00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:03,680 a free play Yankees blue Jays as well on my 741 00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:06,759 page right now, Steve Merrill wager Talk dot com and 742 00:34:06,799 --> 00:34:12,079 get there quicker with shortcut WT dot slash sm. 743 00:34:11,679 --> 00:34:15,760 Speaker 2: Steve Merrill incredible segment. Those stats are fantastic. Those are 744 00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:18,199 stats you gotta know when you're doing your handicapping. So 745 00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:21,079 thank you so much for joining us once again. Guys, 746 00:34:21,159 --> 00:34:25,239 it is five dollars Tuesday. Take advantage of every capper 747 00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:27,679 on the site is eligible to have a five dollars 748 00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:30,960 play up. My play is in UFC. We hit our 749 00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:33,719 five dollars play last week at the Open Championship, so 750 00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:35,960 looking to make this a nice two and oh in 751 00:34:36,039 --> 00:34:38,679 the last couple weeks here on five dollars plays. We 752 00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:40,519 want you to get as many as possible, try out 753 00:34:40,559 --> 00:34:43,599 new handicappers, try out the handicappers that you've tried out 754 00:34:43,679 --> 00:34:46,519 before and haven't seen in a while. But most important, 755 00:34:46,559 --> 00:34:48,960 bet responsibly make sure we don't have a huge amount 756 00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:51,039 of our bank roll on there, but experiment with as 757 00:34:51,039 --> 00:34:54,840 many handicappers as you want. We've got MLB, we've got WNBA, 758 00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:56,920 we're gonna have UFC that's up there, so a lot 759 00:34:56,920 --> 00:35:00,440 of different sports to take advantage of. All handicappers play 760 00:35:00,599 --> 00:35:03,760 on five dollars Tuesday. All right, let's bring in actually, 761 00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:06,199 let's go to Steve. Let's do Steve Duke's comment here, 762 00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:08,559 any of you all been trying to pair a two 763 00:35:08,599 --> 00:35:11,400 dollars fave with their team total over two and a 764 00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:14,480 half for three and a half just to reduce juice 765 00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:19,559 raised to three runs another option long term, Steve, I 766 00:35:19,599 --> 00:35:22,079 don't think this is profitable, and I'm a guy that 767 00:35:22,199 --> 00:35:25,840 does a lot of parlays. Trying to pair a two 768 00:35:25,880 --> 00:35:29,039 dollars fave in daily sports, I think is asking for trouble. 769 00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:33,199 I'm never going to be pairing moneyline favorites in baseball, 770 00:35:33,559 --> 00:35:39,719 in NHL, NBA, college basketball, there's too much variance. The 771 00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:41,599 only team you could give you can make a case 772 00:35:41,639 --> 00:35:44,360 for is Colorado. The Colorado Rockies have been awful, but 773 00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:46,960 then again they won two games against the Twins. So 774 00:35:47,079 --> 00:35:49,440 I make it a rule that I don't do any 775 00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:52,880 moneyline parlay pieces from any of the daily sports. I 776 00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:56,079 just don't think over the course of a season it's 777 00:35:56,159 --> 00:35:59,000 going to be profitable. And anytime you're adding a parlay 778 00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:02,119 piece in just to reduce juice, like it needs to 779 00:36:02,159 --> 00:36:04,039 be very very well handicapped and you have to have 780 00:36:04,079 --> 00:36:06,480 all the reasoning in the world to make sure it's 781 00:36:06,559 --> 00:36:08,599 in there. But just picking a random favorite just to 782 00:36:08,639 --> 00:36:11,199 say I'm going to reduce juice and not knowing all 783 00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:13,639 about that piece, I think it's really hard to be profitable, 784 00:36:13,679 --> 00:36:15,960 So for me, not really, I don't know if I 785 00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:18,480 would recommend that. So all right, let's bring in Dan 786 00:36:18,519 --> 00:36:21,920 and let's talk the Packers here. Going to the NFC 787 00:36:22,559 --> 00:36:27,599 season win total is nine and a half. I gotta 788 00:36:27,599 --> 00:36:30,000 be honest, Dan, I think they nailed this number exactly. 789 00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:32,760 This one is really hard to find a good way 790 00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:36,559 to go over or under here. I went to Pro 791 00:36:36,559 --> 00:36:38,800 Football Focus. I know they're not to be all end all, 792 00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:42,039 but it's at least a starting point here, and I 793 00:36:42,119 --> 00:36:44,960 was pretty surprised here. They have their defensive line ranked 794 00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:51,800 only twenty fourth, their offensive line fourteenth. They don't seem 795 00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:54,039 too high on this team yet. They were eleven and 796 00:36:54,119 --> 00:36:57,159 six last year, and they had their offense ranked eighth 797 00:36:57,239 --> 00:37:01,079 last year and their defense ranked twelfth. I know they 798 00:37:01,159 --> 00:37:04,599 got some injuries at the wide receiver position, but I'm 799 00:37:04,599 --> 00:37:06,599 interested your take before we go over the schedule. What 800 00:37:06,599 --> 00:37:08,000 are you making this nine and a half number on 801 00:37:08,039 --> 00:37:08,519 the Packers. 802 00:37:09,159 --> 00:37:12,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, honestly, Andy, we're a little bit at odds here 803 00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:15,320 because I think this is a full game low on 804 00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:19,079 the Packers. Really, let's go, Yeah, this is this is 805 00:37:19,119 --> 00:37:23,239 a strong over bet for me. Absolutely the nine and 806 00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:27,280 a half for me. Just again, it feels at least 807 00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:29,480 a half when like this sham should be sitting at ten. 808 00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:32,159 So all right, let's start with the fact that this team, 809 00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:35,440 as you mentioned, they win eleven games last year, Andy, 810 00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:38,880 since the Eagles and the Packers had to play on 811 00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:42,400 that absolute joke of a field in Brazil, Jordan Love 812 00:37:42,519 --> 00:37:44,960 wasn't healthy the entirety of the year. 813 00:37:45,079 --> 00:37:47,880 Speaker 2: Even when he was good, he was not good. 814 00:37:48,119 --> 00:37:50,800 Speaker 1: And and the fact that they were able to amass 815 00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:54,599 eleven wins I think is a huge heartbringer of what's 816 00:37:54,599 --> 00:37:57,480 to come for this team. You know, they had a 817 00:37:57,480 --> 00:38:01,440 great draft. They finally shake off not taking a wide 818 00:38:01,519 --> 00:38:04,119 receiver high in the draft, thumbing their nose all those 819 00:38:04,199 --> 00:38:06,760 years at Aaron Rodgers. He sees what they do in 820 00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:08,800 the draft this year and was like, where was that 821 00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:12,079 when I was here. I think they have weapons galore. 822 00:38:12,079 --> 00:38:14,559 In short, Yes, there's injuries heading into the year, but 823 00:38:14,639 --> 00:38:17,000 they kind of have an embarrassment of riches in that 824 00:38:17,119 --> 00:38:19,559 wide receiving corps. No one who's going to be the 825 00:38:19,599 --> 00:38:23,679 absolute stud runaway one, but for how this offense is 826 00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:27,280 predicated on spreading the ball around. You don't really need 827 00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:30,199 a guy who's the number one wide receiver. You don't 828 00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:33,239 need a DeVante Adams, and then the rest they have 829 00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:38,480 audition by a strong wide receiving corps. There you wonder 830 00:38:38,519 --> 00:38:40,719 what the NFL thinks about him right out the gate, 831 00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:43,559 they have like four different primetime games. So this is 832 00:38:43,559 --> 00:38:46,840 a team that the NFL expects to be pretty solid. 833 00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:49,239 And I view it the same way. I think that 834 00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:52,360 this team's not only a contender to be winning their division, 835 00:38:52,639 --> 00:38:55,719 a contender to go over this win total. I think 836 00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:57,880 this is a contender to potentially be winning the Super 837 00:38:57,880 --> 00:38:59,639 Bowl for this year. This is a team I'm very 838 00:38:59,639 --> 00:39:03,480 bully sean. I think, starting the fact that they're here 839 00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:06,639 in the NFC North, they're going to be sharpened. You know, 840 00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:09,440 they're the iron sharpens iron. So they're they're playing in 841 00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:12,960 arguably the toughest division in all the football outside of 842 00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:15,360 maybe you know, I would say that the AFC West, 843 00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:17,760 where each of those kind of has the bottom feeder 844 00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:19,360 and the Bears and the Raiders that are. 845 00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:20,320 Speaker 2: Kind of the wild card. 846 00:39:20,599 --> 00:39:22,840 Speaker 1: But for me, I think you have the wrong team 847 00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:25,920 favored to start this division, right, you got the Lions 848 00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:27,960 favored to win the division. I think it should be 849 00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:30,400 the Packers heading end of the year. So over nine 850 00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:32,400 and a half for me, and give me the Packers 851 00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:34,719 to win the NFC North plus two sixty. I think 852 00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:36,679 you can get it plus as high as two ninety. 853 00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:39,760 So I'm all in, Go pack Go. That's the way 854 00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:41,039 I'm viewing this team. Andy. 855 00:39:41,599 --> 00:39:43,760 Speaker 2: I love the conviction. Dan, all right, let's do their 856 00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:47,800 schedule real quick. Lions commanders to start the season, but 857 00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:51,280 then at Browns at Dallas. I hate this buye so 858 00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:54,719 early in the season. What is what is this buying? 859 00:39:54,800 --> 00:40:00,880 Like we nuts, it's it's worthless. Come on, go Bengals 860 00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:04,880 at Cardinals at Steelers Panthers. That's a good winning stretch 861 00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:10,239 potential there, Eagles at Giants, Vikings at Lions, Bears at 862 00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:15,400 Broncos at Bears, Ravens at Minnesota. I'm leaning to the 863 00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:18,440 over as well. I'm not fully on board as you, 864 00:40:18,519 --> 00:40:21,280 but uh, looking at the schedule, and I agree that 865 00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:23,920 the Jordan Love injury was so swept under the rug. 866 00:40:24,039 --> 00:40:27,599 It's like, yeah, don't we always talk about quarterback injuries 867 00:40:27,639 --> 00:40:29,599 and yet it was just like, well, Jordan Love's not 868 00:40:29,679 --> 00:40:33,039 running as much. It's like, yeah, knees swollen up to 869 00:40:33,119 --> 00:40:35,239 the size of his head. Of course he's not running 870 00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:37,639 like oh, the offense may not be clicking like, of 871 00:40:37,639 --> 00:40:41,039 course not. He's hurt. So I'm with you. It's a 872 00:40:41,119 --> 00:40:44,719 completely undervalued story. I think ten is the is the 873 00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:48,719 right number as well. Yeah, I'm rolling with you. Then 874 00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:51,360 you sold me you feel any The. 875 00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:54,639 Speaker 1: Detroit fans are coming out in full force. We got 876 00:40:54,719 --> 00:40:58,119 Johnny Detroit, who's who's a member of the wader Talk Insiders. 877 00:40:58,159 --> 00:41:01,079 You can join wader Talk Insiders here. You get some 878 00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:03,039 special perks that we have coming up. 879 00:41:03,159 --> 00:41:03,880 Speaker 2: It's really cool. 880 00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:06,280 Speaker 1: Shout out to the guy who who joined us here. 881 00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:10,320 We got Ronald Blackledge who joined in wager Talk Insiders. 882 00:41:10,320 --> 00:41:13,440 You can become an exclusive member here on YouTube. Johnny 883 00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:15,840 one of those he must know someone he had early 884 00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:20,239 access to become a wager Talk insider. But Johnny stick 885 00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:23,480 to Lacrosse buddy dropping a full pie when doing a video. 886 00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:28,000 They're they're angry Andy. But we had Chris Chris Allen, 887 00:41:28,039 --> 00:41:29,960 the guy we work with. He messaged me just saying 888 00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:33,840 you op. Andrew Wojanick Detroit in the house they're not 889 00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:37,039 happy with me, brother. They're not happy with me, brother. 890 00:41:37,119 --> 00:41:40,880 But when the wheels fall off Detroit and and I 891 00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:42,639 can come on the show and say, hey, guys, I 892 00:41:43,079 --> 00:41:46,039 tried to tell you so ride the Packers in this division. 893 00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:48,840 Then then then we can circle back. But until then 894 00:41:49,119 --> 00:41:51,280 we'll allow them to besmirch me as long as they're 895 00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:54,079 commenting after the video. Tell me what a jackass I am. 896 00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:56,239 Make sure you do that. Don't just drop it in 897 00:41:56,239 --> 00:41:58,199 the live chat. Tell me I'm an asshole in the 898 00:41:58,199 --> 00:41:59,679 comments after the show. 899 00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:05,599 Speaker 2: That those comments Dan smells like insecurity to me, it 900 00:42:05,719 --> 00:42:06,519 sells like it. 901 00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:09,840 Speaker 1: Does it does. I do smell a slight amount of 902 00:42:09,840 --> 00:42:13,119 fear in the chat here today, so who knows. We'll 903 00:42:13,119 --> 00:42:15,679 see when we when we circle back. I'm shocked they're 904 00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:17,719 not bashing me more for the Penn State hat, you 905 00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:19,480 know what I mean? Like, oh, the Penn State guys 906 00:42:19,480 --> 00:42:21,599 telling us that we're gonna go over, We're gonna go under. 907 00:42:21,639 --> 00:42:24,119 So so yeah, keep the hate coming, but keep it 908 00:42:24,159 --> 00:42:25,639 coming after the video goes live. 909 00:42:26,199 --> 00:42:28,480 Speaker 2: Most this might be one of the most polarizing over 910 00:42:28,559 --> 00:42:31,400 unders that we've had in the Chat this season. Who 911 00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:33,840 would have thunk it would have been the Packers, Darrel say, 912 00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:37,119 Chicago Bears winning that conference. All right, I guess a 913 00:42:37,159 --> 00:42:40,320 lot of geography around there, Green based, Chicago, Detroit, like 914 00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:42,840 all right there, so you get get a lot of 915 00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:44,559 a lot of the fan bases there. All right, Well, 916 00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:46,840 we got to get out of here. Guys. Enjoy five 917 00:42:46,920 --> 00:42:48,880 dollars Tuesday. Make sure you pick that up. Get my 918 00:42:49,039 --> 00:42:52,239 UFC five dollars. Best bet we hit ours last week. 919 00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:54,320 Let's get a nice streak going here. Take advantage of 920 00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:57,480 all handicappers at wager talk, and I was always a 921 00:42:57,519 --> 00:43:01,119 bet responsibly, absolutely fantastic show. Leave us the comment section, 922 00:43:01,159 --> 00:43:04,159 tell us what you thought about myself and Geoanny's discussion. 923 00:43:04,159 --> 00:43:06,840 Tell us what you think about the Packers over at 924 00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:08,920 nine and a half. Good luck on all your plays. 925 00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:10,960 We're gonna do it again tomorrow. Take care