Speaker 1: Your lack.
Speaker 2: Welcome to the best sports betting show on the planet.
This is Wager Talk Today and I am your host,
Andy Lang. It is five dollar Tuesday. Every capper has
the best bet up for just five bucks. We've got WNBA, MLB,
plenty of opportunities on the board. We're gonna break it
all down, help you find the best spots. Jihnny has
a busy, busy Steam Reports. All of you that love
the Steam Report buckle up. And then g and I
are gonna talk about a couple differing views that he
and I have, so that should be fun. How keen
Profit's gonna join us break down WNBA the Dream versus
the Aces, and then Steve Marrel is gonna join us.
Red Sox and Philly is one of the most bizarre
endings to a game you will ever see last night.
And then Dan and I are gonna break down the
Packers nine and a half on their season win total.
So thanks for joining us. Everyone, please hit that like button.
Let's get started. Let's bring in gann Jeohnny. Understand, we've
got a pretty good morning here in Steam A lot
of action. What you got for us so far?
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, it's been very very busy so far, subscribers,
you should receive your third.
Speaker 4: You have c bet your third.
Speaker 3: You have ce bet And again these lines are moving,
so if you do agree with it, don't hold back.
Speaker 4: This line's gonna move.
Speaker 3: It's it's chalk, and it should go off probably like
minus three point fifty at least.
Speaker 4: But I think we got a.
Speaker 3: Pretty good number, and real quickly, let me just look. Yeah,
our five percent still line moving in our favor. Always
good to see. So there's a five percent of four
percent and a three percent already for.
Speaker 4: You in MMA.
Speaker 3: Also, more futures came in in NFL. You got that playoff.
Will they make the playoffs or not make the playoffs.
But here's some steam for today, some actionable information for
you guys now. Yesterday, right before first pitch, we placed
four series bets. Three of them I used as premium plays.
The one I didn't because we were opposite in Game
one and it worked out in my favor.
Speaker 4: Here's what I mean.
Speaker 3: We bet the Mets to win the series, very chalky.
We bet the Cubs to win the series, very chalky.
We bet Saint Louis to win the series. All three
of those I released as premium plays Mets one Game one.
Saint Louis won Game one. The Cubs lost Game one,
so we need the Cubs to win the next two
to win that series. Bet. We need the Mets of
Saint Louis to win one of the next two to
win that. Now, we also bet the Yankees right before
first pitch. I didn't release that to subscribers because I
was already on Toronto for yesterday. I had Toronto circled
as one of the plays I like one of the
groups that I moved baseball for. They came in on Toronto,
So I ended up betting Toronto. And then, like I
said later on, we got this Yankee series bet. Obviously
I moved it because I don't sit on their action,
but I didn't release it the subscribers because we were
already on Toronto in game one.
Speaker 4: So that made absolutely no sense. But keep that in mind.
Speaker 3: So two of the teams lost Game one that we
need in the series. That's the Cubbies and that's the Yankees.
Use that information as you see fit. Now here's what
we got bet for today. In WNBA WNBA's back, Baby,
don't overlook the WNBA. I think I'm up almost forty
units in WNBA, so don't overlook that six sixteen Washington
minus one and a half and two. Also a little
money line sprinkle action on Washington once it got past
that minus two six eighteen, Minnesota minus eleven, eleven and
a half, twelve, twelve and a half thirteen. So somebody's
got to be out because Minnesota got pounded from minus eleven.
The last bet I saw on an account was minus thirteen.
And finally, the line's not going to reflect it. And
this is what I'm talking about that there's a lot
of manipulation going on, especially in these smaller markets. If
you look at the betting line for the Indiana fever,
it'll look like the favorites the side based on line
movement alone. But that was on the overnight very small
limit bets to move that line, and when they opened
today we blasted Indiana plus eleven and a half and
plus eleven. So if you're just looking at the line screen,
you would probably be put on the opposite side. But again,
nothing could be further from the truth. Not telling you
how it's going to turn out, but I can tell
you the shriump sign is Indiana, and you know I'll
just give it to you now. That's actually the play
I released the subscribers. I was thinking about using WNBA
as my five percent play because I'm sixty nine percent
on thirty three WNBA bets in twenty twenty five, so
we're running really really well in WNBA. But I just
didn't think Indiana, even though it was you know, kind
of set up dummied up to get that eleven, I
just didn't have a strong opinion myself prior on that side.
So I released it as a three percent play, but
wasn't going to make it the h five dollars play
because I isolated a baseball bet that I really really,
really really liked. Speaking to baseball, here's what we got
in baseball, So that Indiana was a three percent play
in baseball, here's what we got.
Speaker 4: Signs.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna give you all signs fifty six Atlanta minus
one oh five minus one ten nine sixty Cleveland minus
one twenty five nine fifty three, Cincinnati minus one twenty
five uh nine sixty five, The Athletics plus two ten
plus two hundred nine sixty eight, Pittsburgh plus one twenty
nine seventy one LA Angels plus one fifty five and
only one total. That's that's the four percent play that
I sent out that I gave out already the subscribers
and is up there for five dollars. Multiple I had
one total circle for today's card. I swear to you
one total circle from yesterday, and multiple groups hit that total.
I said, my problem, My job's easy. That's the four
percent play, uh, that the five dollars play, so that
that's out there already. So I don't have totals, but
those are the size they got some overnight actions, some
follow through this morning, and like I said, those are
the series bets we have pending and some WNBA action
for you as well. And there's the NFL and college
football seasons when totals are getting bet each and every day.
So keep your eyes open, watch those lines, pay attention closely,
and hopefully you uncover some gold as well. Like I said,
something popped out to Austin yesterday that we hit. So
every day, just new stuff coming up in college football
in the NFL.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we want to look at injury report here. Johnny
asked about the line. Well, Kaitlyn Clark is out. She's
been banged up for a while. Now, this has been
a real bummer of a season and aggressive line movement.
When she gets ruled out, I'm not sure it should
affect the line that much. She's been fairly ineffective shooting,
so maybe overreaction to Kaitlyn Clark. Atkins is still out
for Chicago. I'm guessing that's why the movement on Minnesota
and Florida. Yeah, and Howard is out for Atlanta. So
make sure you're paying a ten this big time of
year in wa when you got to be checking the
injury reports. You don't want to get burned with why
are we getting sixteen points? Oh, the two best players
are hurt, so check those check those injury reports. But
that might explain some of the some of the line moves. Okay, Johnny,
I want to bring this up to you. You and
I have agreed on damn near everything. You and I
look at things a little bit different on this topic.
And it came up yesterday. You had a bet and
you beat the line, and you said I did my job.
I made the bet and we got the best of
the number. I had a bet where I got the
worst of the number, but mine one. You would say
I didn't make a good bet because I got the
absolute worst of the number, and I would say, no,
my bet was great because it won. And I look
at it as it's a results based business. When we
log into our accounts, a winner is a winner, a
loser is a loser. So you and I look at
it completely different. And there is more than one way
to get to a right answer. So let's discuss your
job is to beat the number, and that's what you
look at as a great bet. Correct.
Speaker 4: Yes, here, because here's what I believe.
Speaker 3: And I learned this after I made enough money where
I started investing in other things and not just betting sports.
I realized when I got into stocks, crypto, that kind
of trading, that the market's very efficient and it lined
up perfectly with sports and how I learned to win
betting sports. When I started betting, obviously I was booking,
but when I was betting, I was handicapping myself. Okay, win, lose, win, lose, win, lose,
until I started working with a betting syndicate and saw
what they were doing crushing the line, because when I
didn't get the good line, sometimes I would lose and
they would win. Like I was seeing it in real
time that is, these guys were beating the line and
making money hand over fizz, and all they were talking
about was beating that.
Speaker 4: Line, beating that line, beating that line.
Speaker 3: They never taught. These are street guys, so they didn't
talk like traders. But when I got into the trading world,
speaking the more guys that were more polished, more educated,
what they leaned on was efficient market hypothesis.
Speaker 4: It's called and that means you can't.
Speaker 3: It's like, it's very hard for you to beat the
market because as a whole, the market's going to be
right more times than wrong, Like the once all the
information's factored in, the market's going to be correct more
times than wrong. So that's why it's so hard to
pick stocks long term and win individually. That's why, just
like with sports betting, ninety nine percent of day traders
lose money long term because of that. Like they're trying
to beat the market, and the market's almost always going
to be right because it's got all the information factored
into it. So I carry that over to sports to
where it makes perfect sense to me because I know,
just a simple example, betting football, we're going to get
the week one lines a week before two weeks before.
What have you that early on? I don't know the weather,
I don't know the injuries. I don't even know if
the team won or lost the week prior. I know
nothing like that. I don't know anything. Okay, ten minutes
before the game though, I know all of that. I
know what the weather is, I know who's playing and
who's not. All that information is now factored into the line,
So that line should be the sharpest it is because
right before the game starts, that's when all the information's
factored into the betting line.
Speaker 4: So my conclusion is, once.
Speaker 3: It's factored into the betting line, it's no longer valuable information,
kind of like with a with a total, like knowing
it's going to snow. If you get down on a
n under before the adjustment you got you it makes sense.
But after the line moves from thirty five over under
down to thirty one, just because it's snowing isn't helping
you now. But if you got out ahead of that
move and you went under thirty five and because of
the bad weather the game goes off at thirty one,
my conclusion is you beat the market. You got ahead
of where the market's going to conclude this line should
be and if you do that over and over and
over again, you should end up profitable. That's my that's
my defense in CLV closing line value. That is very
hard to argue that the opening line is more efficient than.
Speaker 4: The closing line.
Speaker 3: And more importantly, it's also hard to argue that you
can consistently make money not doing that, Meaning if the
line's moving against you, and to consistently make money, I
believe it's impossible. Now there's going to be times again
in the short term, anything's possible. We defy probability all
the time I talk about it. I bring the same
example all the time. At the Roulette Wheel right now
down the street from my house as a casino, someone
just hit a number and they got paid thirty five
to one. They're happy, they put ten dollars, they won
three hundred fifty dollars. God bless them. But we know
that's a bad bet because there's thirty eight numbers on
that Roulett wheel. So they only got paid thirty five
to one. So unless they were getting thirty nine to one,
it wasn't a great bet. If they were getting thirty
eight to one, then it was a coin flip fifty
to fifty, no one had an advantage. But since we
know they're only getting thirty five to one, we know
he placed a terrible bet, but he's still won. I
carry that over to CLV win without CLB, but I
don't think you could do it long term.
Speaker 2: So I look at it maybe this is just me personally.
I look at it that I think me and my
team can do the research that we know a little
bit more in the market, and maybe it has to
do with that we're betting a little bit more of
the obscure bets, like we're not betting NFL money lines,
we're not betting NFL spreads. But you know, for ex,
we got where do you cash to cricket play this morning?
We knew more than the books did on this one.
So I look at it and say, listen, you give
me one fight. I may or may not hit it,
but you give me twelve fights on a card to research,
I'm going to find that one that I know more
than the market does, and I just think you give
me just one or two little inefficiencies. I believe that
my research can outdo the market, and so when I
look at it.
Speaker 4: I understand that.
Speaker 3: But why I think you found the advantage is that
the market hasn't factored in information that you may incover
because so you got to remember where you why you
don't always need that CLV, And you're right, it's because
the book's job isn't to predict the outcome. Like when
they put a line as minus seven, they're not saying
teammate is going to beat tm B by seven points.
What they're saying is that at minus seven, we're either
going to balance the money, which is we're going to
get fifty to fifty on both sides, which makes us
a lock to turn a profit because we're just playing broker,
which is almost impossible to do. They're almost never going
to get fifty to fifty on everything. So since we
can't get fifty to fifty, that's only in a perfect world.
Speaker 4: The other way we could ensure we.
Speaker 3: Profit is by shading our line towards biases and making
sure they're getting the worst of it, Like they're already
getting the worst of it. By laying eleven to win ten,
we already have a four and a half percent edge
on them as the book. Now, though I could make
that a six or seven or eight percent edge by
shading it towards your biases of what we saw last
of you know a player, an overreaction to what a
player's worth, and you being in a stuke kapper maybe like.
Speaker 4: Kaitlin Clark ain't worth that.
Speaker 3: The book may know that as well, and the book
may know that also, but be like, you know what,
we have to do that to protect ourselves. We know
she's not worth eight points, but if we only make
it six points, we're gonna get blasted with nothing but
money on that side.
Speaker 4: So let's do that.
Speaker 3: And it's okay if guys like you come in and
get the best of it in those situations. I agree
with you. CLV is not going to be the end
all be all, But in a big picture theme.
Speaker 4: Like I don't think, I think even you.
Speaker 3: I bet if you look at your last thousand bets,
I would I would say you beat the closing line
at least seventy percent of the time. I would even
the most obscure ones.
Speaker 2: Most likely especially in the props market, I would say
you're a lock to do that, and that's a that's
a low figure.
Speaker 3: Based on your results over the last three four years,
I would say it's even higher than that. It's just
you trust yourself enough that you that that doesn't Sometimes
you will say they are wrong, that number is off still,
and I respect that.
Speaker 4: I love guys to do that, love guys that could
do that, like yeah, and I think, don't change, don't change.
Speaker 2: Ain't changing. Yeah, And I you know, maybe the other
thing is because we're so low volume. Like you give
me twelve fights, and if I can make money off
of one, that's all I care about. You probably can
find eight lines that you can beat it. And so
the higher volume you have a much better chance to
do that. I'm not gonna win nine out of twelve
bets with research on a UFC card. That's pretty much impossible.
So it's an interesting topic. It's I love it.
Speaker 4: I love it. I love it.
Speaker 2: It's differing opinions, but it's more than one way to get,
you know, winning tickets to the window. And we will
absolutely continue this conversation because the more we can talk
about this and more we can uh. I don't wosta
say debate, but just show our differing O.
Speaker 3: You see other perspective, bro, Listen. I used to think
and I know there's other great guests waiting to be on.
But I was so anti Parlane in MMA, and I
was actually shown long term results of a better that
made money betting MMA parlays.
Speaker 4: How am I going to tell this guy not to
do that?
Speaker 3: You have a statistical significant sample size that says you
have an edge over those two fighter Parlay.
Speaker 2: So have at it.
Speaker 4: Who am I to tell you different? I don't.
Speaker 3: I don't have all the answers. I told what works
for me. How I've been able to make my little
corner of the world work for me. And you know,
once you figure it out, bro, keep doing what you're doing.
Speaker 4: And you have it.
Speaker 3: Figured out, obviously, you have a big enough sample size
to prove that. So keep approach it the way it
makes sense to you. Bro, Just it makes sense to you.
You don't have to defend it at all.
Speaker 2: Yep, all right, Well we're gonna continue this conversation. It's
five dollars Tuesday, teller, or what do you have about
for clients?
Speaker 4: I think you're Yeah, there's that five dollar MLB play.
I love this play. I swear to you.
Speaker 3: Even a cash bet at the window, which you know
I lost the last cash bet at the window on
Saturday in MMA, But this one was worth a definite
cash bet. Need to get that back. So there's the
four percent playoff only for five dollars WNB I gave
you for free. It's Indiana plus eleven NFL college football.
There's about nine or ten picks in there right now
with a five percent. The rest are all four percents.
Those are really strongness. While we're tying up money, and of.
Speaker 4: Course the UFC package is up for Saturday. It's early.
Speaker 3: UFC cards goes nine am Pacific, so it's an early card.
The five percents off there, four percents in there, three
percents on there. Bounce back good week this week, So
best luck to everyone again, thanks for giving me extra minutes.
Speaker 4: I know skeets are ready to come on.
Speaker 3: I know you got a lot of good guys coming up,
so make sure you guys stick around.
Speaker 2: Thank you all right, thank you Giohnny, Yeah, Johnny. Detroit
books very rarely ever kick someone for winning. They boot
you if they see you have an advantage on them
on the numbers they post. Yeah. We tell people all
this time, if you're betting on the legal books, do
not beat the number on props. Don't do it. You
will get your book limited very very quick, so be
careful with that. So all right, thanks guys, this is
a great discussion. Listen, leave us a comment, tell us
your opinion on this topic, and tell us if you're
enjoying this. I think it's important that we keep talking
about these things. Like we mentioned before, it is five
dollars Tuesday, perfect time to new handicappers a ride with
your good old favorites. Every handicapper has a five dollars
play up, no limit, Grab as many as you want. MLB,
sure there's a ton, I'm sure there's WNBA or may
be golf. I have a UFC best bet that is up.
We've got something for everyone. Take advantage of today's opportunities,
explore some new styles, and as always, bet responsibly. Make
sure we don't have a huge chunk of our bank
roll involved in just some of these five dollars plays.
But it's five dollars Tuesday, don't let it pass you by.
Let's bring on hookeeen profit and then we'll do all
around the world. Let's talk a little WNBA with our
good friend here, Keem. How are you doing, sir? How
was your weekend? WNBA was on break, But now we're
back in full swing. How are you, sir?
Speaker 5: I've been better, but I'm okay. I enjoyed my little
time off from WNBA, I'll say that. And I enjoy
some of the good conversation you guys had before I
came on.
Speaker 2: So good stuff. I appreciate it. What's your take?
Speaker 5: A lot of different opinions, but I'll say this, I
think on different sports, CoV is more important than others
smaller markets. I don't think it matters as much. And
I'll say me specifically this season, I've beaten a lot
of lines as far as totals in WNBA, I might
have won two of them, so I don't I'm more
about winning the tickets. I don't care if I you know,
I don't. If I beat the line and I lose,
it doesn't do anything for me. So I just want
to pick winners.
Speaker 2: That's what I believe in as well. So all right, Ski,
We've got a lot of games tonight. We've got Aces
in the dream. Can you talk to Aces in the
dream for us real quick? And I know you got
some props in the fever as well? Or do we
just need to go to the fever?
Speaker 5: No, that's all good. We'll talk a little bit of this,
and Johanni he can talk as long as he wants.
Whenever you see me on the show. You know, I'm
not the most long winded person in general, but I
can talk to any WNBA or basketball anytime. So this game,
I'll say, you have two of the stars missing for
both of these teams. Atlanta Dream will be with Ryan Howard,
she's a big offensive piece for them. And Las Vegas.
Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure.
Speaker 5: I mean, I'm not expecting Jackie Young to be out there.
She's listed as game time decision the game before the break.
She went down in the fourth quarter and it was
a hip injury. She did suit up for All Star,
but didn't really play, just you know, go out there
for a one minute so she can be named an
All Star. So when I see stuff like that, it
makes me think she's not gonna play. And if you
watch the end of that Aces versus Wings game, you
saw how and if you just know that the Aces
in general, you know how terrible they look offensively without
Jackie Young. I mean, it's not a whole lot of playmaking,
you can trust.
Speaker 1: I know.
Speaker 5: Chelsea Grays is called the point god, but she's getting
up there and things aren't looking the same. So I
do think the Aces are the more hungry team coming
into the break. They were trying to make it to
five hundred. They got there after a disappointing start to
the season. Now you know they're not satisfied just being
at five hundred. I think they still have more to.
Speaker 2: Prove being at home.
Speaker 5: So if you get Jackie Young in this game, I
absolutely would love the Aces. But this is one where
I have to wait and see for the injury report
to pick aside as far as the total, Again, both
of those players who will be out are very important
for the offensive end. But what I will say is
having four days off, I mean, these teams knew nine
times out of ten that they're going to be without them,
so I think they'll have a game plan. I also
think that after all Star break, you know, but both
teams having so much time off, I don't think defense
is the number one priority. Like, I don't think you're
going to see the best defensive effort from either team,
So I'll lean over. But again, I really want to
see I really want to see Jackie Young status in
this game.
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk a little bit about the Fever.
I know you got some props in this one. Caitlyn
Clark is out. We got to wait on the injury report,
but we do know the injury report in this Fever game.
What props are you looking at in this one?
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm looking at a few, But I'll say, first off,
you said Kaitlyn Clark is out. That immediately makes me
think about Ari McDonald. The first game she played when
she was signed to the team, she didn't hit her
as his prop. But the four games after that without
Kaitlyn Clark, she hit it every single time. She had
five plus I think she had seven eight, So she's
a really good distributor. They like to play up tempo.
I think four and a half is not a tough
ass for her. And also, if the Fever are going
to be in this game, you're gonna need some people
to score. Kelsey Mitchell, I want to say, without Kaitlyn Clark,
she's averaging a little bit over twenty one points per game.
Kaitlyn Clark has missed I believe, ten games so far
this season, and Kelsey Mitchell I believe has had nineteen
plus and.
Speaker 2: Nine of them.
Speaker 5: Speaking off the top of my head, but you get
the point. If the Fever are going to be in
the game without Kaitlyn Clark out there, you're gonna need
already to distribute. You're gonna need Kelsey Mitchell to score.
Those are the two props that I'm looking at for
that game.
Speaker 2: I love it. I love It's five dollars Tuesday, Ski,
What do you have up for clients?
Speaker 5: I do have a top play in the WNBA. It
is a total for tonight, and I have three. I mean,
if you know about the systems that I put out there,
I have three of them that line up on this play.
So if you want to be involved, you can find
it at my page wt dot bus, Bash, last HP
and I will be live with Robbino in about an hour.
We'll go through all five w NBA games, break them
down a little bit more detail, and see if we
can find some more winners. So check us out over
there in an hour and check out my five dollars
Tuesday play.
Speaker 2: Ski profit WNBA is back. Thank you so much for
joining us. Don't forget to get that five dollars play
over at wagertalk dot com. From Ski, Let's go all
around the world. Let's take a look at some free
plays that we have up. We've got we got a
couple of baseball plays, and then we're gonna do a
soccer play from our good friend Pavlos. We're gonna start
with Drew Martin's Yankees at Blue Jays. Play likes the
Blue Jays on the money line. Blue Jay is one
of the hottest lineups coming out of the break. Eighteen
runs in three games against the Giants. Andrew Martin give says,
give us a slight starting pitching advantage to Scherzer and
a slight edge in the bullpen. Blue Jays thirty five
and sixteen at home. So he likes the Blue Jays.
And then we're going to go to soccer the Independente
vale Vaya. Sorry at Vasco de Gama that was about
as American as a pronunciation gets Sorry about that, but
Pablos likes the first half to go over one. Vosco
needs to win this game by four or more goals
to have a chance at advancing, so they're going to
be pushing the pace. First half goals in Vasco's Code
Americana matches are three, zero and one, and first half
goals in VIA's road matches are five too. And one.
So we have a lot of trends that like early
goals in this game, and then we'll do the Reds
in the Nationals. I really like the Nationals over three
and a half on their team total. They basically had
no offense in three games against San Diego, but they
scored ten last night against Cincy. Burns's pitch for the
Reds six point nine one ERA. He had a really
good start last time out, but that was against Colorado.
Here's a big thing, Cincinnati fifteenth and bullpen. They used
seven pitchers last night, so their bullpen is absolutely tapped.
I think the national is not a great offense, but
this is a really really good spot coming off a
nice offensive outing last night. So I mean the Nationals
over three and a half on their team total. Let's
bring in Steve Merrill. We're gonna talk Red Sox and Phillies.
We got Fits for Boston, we got Sanchez for Philly,
and Steve, first time in fifty years that we've had
a a Blincoln.
Speaker 6: I love you so much on five Kiss camp.
Speaker 2: Great. Now Steve has to step down from his post
at Wager Talk.
Speaker 6: True story this is how Johnny Detroit lost his first
CEO job at a run DMC concert in nineteen eighty six.
Speaker 2: Damn, wouldn't you know it? That's great, Steve. I love
the kiss camp. It's amazing. See see I was gonna
try and match you with your five dollars. I was gonna,
but like, quarters doesn't exact the quarters. Look at that
pop master doesn't. It's not as sexy as when you
bring out a five dollars bill. So I was smashed.
Whatever I won, all right, I'm like.
Speaker 6: I'm like that, whatever, Ceo. I don't hide my love.
Abe and I are an open or an open book.
I don't hide for money.
Speaker 2: I don't hide it exactly. Let's talk this. I mean,
first off, what a bizarre ending last night. Catch your
interference walk off loss for Boston, first time in fifty years.
Surely you're going to take that into your handicapping on
this game. Catch your advantage for you have that prop.
Speaker 6: You're the prop master. What were the odds on that prop?
Speaker 2: I didn't see that one. Most books didn't have it.
All right, Well, let's talk about this game fits for Boston, Sanchester,
Phillips Philly minus won ninety five. That's the favorite here
over under eight and a half. What's your breakdown on
this game?
Speaker 6: So neither one of these offenses really hitting the ball
that well. The Red Sox have had single digit hits
in eight straight games. They've gone under six of those
last eight. Even before the break, the Phillies had that
seventeen hit breakout against Verlander the Giants back the last
day of the first half, the last Sunday before the
All Star break, or I'm sorry, not last Sunday. It
was on the ninth. It was a couple of weeks ago.
But I bring that up because if you look at
the Phillies otherwise eleven of there are other twelve games.
Every other game except that one, they've had single digit hits,
even though they've gone over three the last four. What's
tricky about this game though, Andy, And by the way,
I do leave Phillies in this one. I would probably
play them run line minus one and a half around
even money did not work out last night. They got
the three to two win, didn't cover the run line. Well,
gives me hesitation. What leaves us off my client card
tonight is the fact that the Red Sox have been
really good against left handed pitchers this year, and Tokyo
Brandon and I talked about this on last call last
weekend when I guest host, and I asked him, and
he's a great baseball handicapper. You know, I was number
one last year and units won in Major League Baseball.
He's been number one, like for three years in a
road combined. And neither one of us rely much on
lefty righty stats. And Tokyo had a great point he's
like those are against other pitchers, and I do agree
with that. With that said, though, it is still a
kind of a little bit of a filter that I
use when looking at games. And I just wanted to
point this out that the Red Sox this year against lefties,
especially on the road, had been much better, and in fact,
overall in all road games this year, they're averaging about
four point three runs a game. They're averaging five point
nine per nine innings against lefties, batting two forty against
lefties on the road, against everyone on the road, two
sixty seven against lefties, So it's about twenty five to
two thirty against right handed pitchers. How do we use
that to our advantage? Well, maybe a first five inning
play with the Red Sox instead of a full game,
you get him at plus one minus one fifteen in
the first five. You get him at plus money plus
one twenty on a half run. So I do like
the Phillies overall in the full game. If you are
looking Red Sox, I think you're much better off playing
them first five or playing them early. And for my
official free play for this game, I'll give you Red
Sox over one and a half runs in the first
five innings. Now, I know Sanchez is a good pitcher,
but once again, the Red Sox have been lightening up
lefties all season. You never know what you're gonna get
with the bullpen in the second half of the game,
but we're gonna get a lefty for the first five innings.
I'm pretty confident of that with Sanchez on the mound.
So why not play the team total over one and
a half? It's three and a half for the game,
it's just one and a half for the first five innings.
I don't think I've ever given out a first five
team total over one and a half. And if you
beat these consistently, you might get banned from your book
as well, But I think it's a good chance to
beat is not all we need is the Red Sox
to get to two runs in the first five innings.
Speaker 2: I love the first five innings team total. I almost
did the Nationals over one and a half. I decided
to go at the full game. But Rakesh wants to
know what about the Phillies team total over four and
a half today? They three and a half. Moved to
four and a half. Is a big move, Steve? Is
that a little too risky to play pass? Or you
want to sprea on that one?
Speaker 6: So they got to three last night in extra innings
and ten they only got to two against the Angels
on Sunday. They did get to five against the Angels
on Friday, but they had two, four to two, three
and one and four of their previous five games before
the break. As I said earlier, they've had single digit
hitch in eleven of their last twelve games. So they're
not exactly lighting the ball up, to say the least.
I do think they get a favorable pitching matchup. And
that's one of the reasons I do like the Phillies
full game is Richard Fits is not going to give
the Phillies Fits. How do you like that four point
three era four point two over his last seven starts
going back to early April. He was out of the
rotation for late April and most of May. Since he's
come back mediocre results. I will say this though, Andy,
his numbers are probably better than his overall numbers because
he had that terrible outing second time he returned back
on June second gave up six runs, five earned in
one inning. So if you take that out of the equation,
maybe Fits is a little bit better than his overall
seasonal numbers. I need to see more for him first,
so but yeah, the Phillies offense is not in great
current form, and Fits maybe a little bit better than
that overall four point two era if you take out
that one really bad start.
Speaker 2: And before we let you go, any teams you got
your eye on second half of the season could be
a team you're looking to bet on, team you're looking
to bet against, any any teams that are kind of
jumping off the page here where you're like, eh, the
team's overvalued or undervalued.
Speaker 6: Well you and I've talked a lot about this about
the crazy American League East, how the Blue Jays are
barely a positive run differential and they're winning the division.
The Yankee you know one hundred and nine net run still,
but I don't know. Something just doesn't seem right with
the Yanks. They have gone six to four their last ten.
Now after having that slide, blue Jays will keep winning
seven out of their last ten, four straight. They're now
four games up. I still think when all is said
and done, the Blue Jays are going to regress a
little bit. But the one thing gives me pause for
concern there is the Blue Jays are thirty two and
twenty five against winning teams. Yankees are only twenty eight
and twenty nine. So you know, maybe Toronto is for real.
We'll find out. In the National League, I still think
the Dodgers are probably a play on team. They've only
won three of their last ten games, but they're really loaded,
and I think they're gonna catch lightning here at some point.
They kind of did it last year. But once again,
the concern I have with the Dodgers, like the Yankees,
they're below five hundred against winning teams. In fact, the
only team in that division that has a winning record
against winning competition is the Giants. Padres are twelve games
below five hundred. Giants are actually twenty eight and twenty
five so San Fran a little bit of a play
on team for me, But I think the Dodgers still
pull away and make a run here in the near future.
Speaker 2: Okay, do that segment real quick again. The winning records
against winning teams in the Giants, Do that again real quick.
Speaker 6: So in the National League West, only one team has
a winning record against above five hundred opponents. It's not
the Dodgers, it's not the Padres. It's the San Francisco
Giants twenty eight and twenty five, Dodgers twenty four and
twenty seven, but the Padres twenty and thirty two against
winning teams. That Diamondbacks are thirty and thirty two. So
in that case, you can maybe say San Diego is
also a little bit of an overrated team. And by
the way, they only have a plus eighteen undifferential they
should be fifty two and forty eight instead of fifty
five and forty five. So Padre is probably overachieving a
little bit.
Speaker 2: That's that's great stuff, Steve. That is really valuable information
to know. You gotta be careful when you're playing these Dodgers,
and you know the Dodgers are gonna be favorites in
those games, So you know, these public teams overvalued in
some of these matchups. That's it's a really really good
look there. So five dollars Tuesday, Steve, what do you
have up for clients?
Speaker 6: So we have an advanced NFL five dollars play which
I put up last week in NFL Season win Total.
It's the only one I've released all year. It's my
favorite win total of the season. That is up for
five dollars right now, and also going to have a
strong Baseball best bet because that five dollars NFL play
is up all summer, So this is actually a rare
opportunity to get two five dollars best bets. My top
baseball best bet tonight. And also that NFL total play
if you didn't get it last week, is still available
really like this season wins play, and by the way,
free plays every day as well. You know, the last
cup for my best bet card always goes up as
a bonus free play, and it is in that Yankees
blue Jays tonight that I just talked about. So get
a free play Yankees blue Jays as well on my
page right now, Steve Merrill wager Talk dot com and
get there quicker with shortcut WT dot slash sm.
Speaker 2: Steve Merrill incredible segment. Those stats are fantastic. Those are
stats you gotta know when you're doing your handicapping. So
thank you so much for joining us once again. Guys,
it is five dollars Tuesday. Take advantage of every capper
on the site is eligible to have a five dollars
play up. My play is in UFC. We hit our
five dollars play last week at the Open Championship, so
looking to make this a nice two and oh in
the last couple weeks here on five dollars plays. We
want you to get as many as possible, try out
new handicappers, try out the handicappers that you've tried out
before and haven't seen in a while. But most important,
bet responsibly make sure we don't have a huge amount
of our bank roll on there, but experiment with as
many handicappers as you want. We've got MLB, we've got WNBA,
we're gonna have UFC that's up there, so a lot
of different sports to take advantage of. All handicappers play
on five dollars Tuesday. All right, let's bring in actually,
let's go to Steve. Let's do Steve Duke's comment here,
any of you all been trying to pair a two
dollars fave with their team total over two and a
half for three and a half just to reduce juice
raised to three runs another option long term, Steve, I
don't think this is profitable, and I'm a guy that
does a lot of parlays. Trying to pair a two
dollars fave in daily sports, I think is asking for trouble.
I'm never going to be pairing moneyline favorites in baseball,
in NHL, NBA, college basketball, there's too much variance. The
only team you could give you can make a case
for is Colorado. The Colorado Rockies have been awful, but
then again they won two games against the Twins. So
I make it a rule that I don't do any
moneyline parlay pieces from any of the daily sports. I
just don't think over the course of a season it's
going to be profitable. And anytime you're adding a parlay
piece in just to reduce juice, like it needs to
be very very well handicapped and you have to have
all the reasoning in the world to make sure it's
in there. But just picking a random favorite just to
say I'm going to reduce juice and not knowing all
about that piece, I think it's really hard to be profitable,
So for me, not really, I don't know if I
would recommend that. So all right, let's bring in Dan
and let's talk the Packers here. Going to the NFC
season win total is nine and a half. I gotta
be honest, Dan, I think they nailed this number exactly.
This one is really hard to find a good way
to go over or under here. I went to Pro
Football Focus. I know they're not to be all end all,
but it's at least a starting point here, and I
was pretty surprised here. They have their defensive line ranked
only twenty fourth, their offensive line fourteenth. They don't seem
too high on this team yet. They were eleven and
six last year, and they had their offense ranked eighth
last year and their defense ranked twelfth. I know they
got some injuries at the wide receiver position, but I'm
interested your take before we go over the schedule. What
are you making this nine and a half number on
the Packers.
Speaker 1: Yeah, honestly, Andy, we're a little bit at odds here
because I think this is a full game low on
the Packers. Really, let's go, Yeah, this is this is
a strong over bet for me. Absolutely the nine and
a half for me. Just again, it feels at least
a half when like this sham should be sitting at ten.
So all right, let's start with the fact that this team,
as you mentioned, they win eleven games last year, Andy,
since the Eagles and the Packers had to play on
that absolute joke of a field in Brazil, Jordan Love
wasn't healthy the entirety of the year.
Speaker 2: Even when he was good, he was not good.
Speaker 1: And and the fact that they were able to amass
eleven wins I think is a huge heartbringer of what's
to come for this team. You know, they had a
great draft. They finally shake off not taking a wide
receiver high in the draft, thumbing their nose all those
years at Aaron Rodgers. He sees what they do in
the draft this year and was like, where was that
when I was here. I think they have weapons galore.
In short, Yes, there's injuries heading into the year, but
they kind of have an embarrassment of riches in that
wide receiving corps. No one who's going to be the
absolute stud runaway one, but for how this offense is
predicated on spreading the ball around. You don't really need
a guy who's the number one wide receiver. You don't
need a DeVante Adams, and then the rest they have
audition by a strong wide receiving corps. There you wonder
what the NFL thinks about him right out the gate,
they have like four different primetime games. So this is
a team that the NFL expects to be pretty solid.
And I view it the same way. I think that
this team's not only a contender to be winning their division,
a contender to go over this win total. I think
this is a contender to potentially be winning the Super
Bowl for this year. This is a team I'm very
bully sean. I think, starting the fact that they're here
in the NFC North, they're going to be sharpened. You know,
they're the iron sharpens iron. So they're they're playing in
arguably the toughest division in all the football outside of
maybe you know, I would say that the AFC West,
where each of those kind of has the bottom feeder
and the Bears and the Raiders that are.
Speaker 2: Kind of the wild card.
Speaker 1: But for me, I think you have the wrong team
favored to start this division, right, you got the Lions
favored to win the division. I think it should be
the Packers heading end of the year. So over nine
and a half for me, and give me the Packers
to win the NFC North plus two sixty. I think
you can get it plus as high as two ninety.
So I'm all in, Go pack Go. That's the way
I'm viewing this team. Andy.
Speaker 2: I love the conviction. Dan, all right, let's do their
schedule real quick. Lions commanders to start the season, but
then at Browns at Dallas. I hate this buye so
early in the season. What is what is this buying?
Like we nuts, it's it's worthless. Come on, go Bengals
at Cardinals at Steelers Panthers. That's a good winning stretch
potential there, Eagles at Giants, Vikings at Lions, Bears at
Broncos at Bears, Ravens at Minnesota. I'm leaning to the
over as well. I'm not fully on board as you,
but uh, looking at the schedule, and I agree that
the Jordan Love injury was so swept under the rug.
It's like, yeah, don't we always talk about quarterback injuries
and yet it was just like, well, Jordan Love's not
running as much. It's like, yeah, knees swollen up to
the size of his head. Of course he's not running
like oh, the offense may not be clicking like, of
course not. He's hurt. So I'm with you. It's a
completely undervalued story. I think ten is the is the
right number as well. Yeah, I'm rolling with you. Then
you sold me you feel any The.
Speaker 1: Detroit fans are coming out in full force. We got
Johnny Detroit, who's who's a member of the wader Talk Insiders.
You can join wader Talk Insiders here. You get some
special perks that we have coming up.
Speaker 2: It's really cool.
Speaker 1: Shout out to the guy who who joined us here.
We got Ronald Blackledge who joined in wager Talk Insiders.
You can become an exclusive member here on YouTube. Johnny
one of those he must know someone he had early
access to become a wager Talk insider. But Johnny stick
to Lacrosse buddy dropping a full pie when doing a video.
They're they're angry Andy. But we had Chris Chris Allen,
the guy we work with. He messaged me just saying
you op. Andrew Wojanick Detroit in the house they're not
happy with me, brother. They're not happy with me, brother.
But when the wheels fall off Detroit and and I
can come on the show and say, hey, guys, I
tried to tell you so ride the Packers in this division.
Then then then we can circle back. But until then
we'll allow them to besmirch me as long as they're
commenting after the video. Tell me what a jackass I am.
Make sure you do that. Don't just drop it in
the live chat. Tell me I'm an asshole in the
comments after the show.
Speaker 2: That those comments Dan smells like insecurity to me, it
sells like it.
Speaker 1: Does it does. I do smell a slight amount of
fear in the chat here today, so who knows. We'll
see when we when we circle back. I'm shocked they're
not bashing me more for the Penn State hat, you
know what I mean? Like, oh, the Penn State guys
telling us that we're gonna go over, We're gonna go under.
So so yeah, keep the hate coming, but keep it
coming after the video goes live.
Speaker 2: Most this might be one of the most polarizing over
unders that we've had in the Chat this season. Who
would have thunk it would have been the Packers, Darrel say,
Chicago Bears winning that conference. All right, I guess a
lot of geography around there, Green based, Chicago, Detroit, like
all right there, so you get get a lot of
a lot of the fan bases there. All right, Well,
we got to get out of here. Guys. Enjoy five
dollars Tuesday. Make sure you pick that up. Get my
UFC five dollars. Best bet we hit ours last week.
Let's get a nice streak going here. Take advantage of
all handicappers at wager talk, and I was always a
bet responsibly, absolutely fantastic show. Leave us the comment section,
tell us what you thought about myself and Geoanny's discussion.
Tell us what you think about the Packers over at
nine and a half. Good luck on all your plays.
We're gonna do it again tomorrow. Take care