Speaker 1: Welcome to Wade You Talked Today, the gold standard of
sports betting shows where we talk the talk and walk
the walk. Jam Pack show for you today. Yannie is
gonna get it started with the Steam Report. Dave Mason
from bet Online is gonna join us with the bookmakers perspective.
Joman Arey's gonna break down the forty nine Ers in
the rant, the injured riddle of forty nine ers versus
the Rams. We're gonna talk Miami and Florida State. I'm
gonna close things out with Thursday Night football props, and
then Dan's gonna jump on. We got to talk about
this game tonight. Do we play the Rams in Survivor?
So we're gonna bring on Dan at the end, and
then don't forget after this show. Immediately after the show,
one o'clock Eastern time, The Blitz, Brian Power, Ralph, Hopefully
Ross is feel better. They're gonna break down all of
the college football and that show is live just like
this one. You got any questions, put it in the chat.
So let's get after it.
Speaker 2: Guys.
Speaker 1: We've got a big, big show. Hit the like button,
please love to get to a hundred likes before the end.
Of the show. Let's bring in Yanni Yannis dates. We
got a game tonight with the line is absolutely ballooned
up to nine. We got college football, we got UFC.
Where do you want to start?
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's start with the NFL ugly game. If you
watch bet on it, I look like a jerk, like
the idiot in the room, because the line kept climbing.
Speaker 4: Here.
Speaker 3: Here's what I thought at the bottom line, is this
as a better that looks for value. Like I don't
bet for action. I don't bet because I'm going to
watch the game. I bet because I think I'm getting
the best of it. Games like this are easy for
me because it's either I like San Francisco or I pass.
Because I didn't get down at the look ahead at
minus three and a half, I didn't get down at
the opener of minus four. I didn't get down at
the first move at four and a half, I didn't
get down at five and a half, didn't get down
at six and a half, then't get down at seven.
So I didn't lay seven at that point, I said,
it's dog or pass situation. And usually what happens is
that the betting market overreacts. Like the book makers adjust
slightly and then the betting market overreacts to injuries. And
I thought that's what we were looking at, and we
touched on it yesterday, that what I'm looking at is
either to look at the dog or if it gets
to seven and a half eight and a half, it's
a teaser ready on the favorite. And that's exactly what
they did. They did the teaser protection. So if you know,
if I ended up if taken the San Francisco plus seven,
which I didn't, fortunately, I would have looked like the
full today because I could have gotten nine. But where
it sits, I think it's still the same exact situation,
where it's either you like San Francisco getting nine points
or you leave the game alone. You can't get to
the window and bet the Rams because even if they
win by twenty one, it's just not a good bet
you're buying at the absolute top. I talk about it
all the time, but I see betters continue to do this,
so I'll continue to remind them that there's just not
a winning formula. You can't continue to be last to
the window and think you're going to beat the betting market,
especially the endfl betting market, which we know the lines
are so tight every point matters.
Speaker 2: So for me, I lean.
Speaker 3: Dog, I haven't betted the dog. I'm probably not going
to get to the window with the dog. If I
am able to find any of my credit shops that
have eight and a half, I will tease down the
rams to what's it called minus two and a half.
I think that the teaser makes a ton of sense,
especially with the total being steamed under, but I would
be careful on the under because I'm seeing the public
betting the under blindly as well. Think in San Francisco
is not going to be able to score any points.
The bottom line is, once the adjustment's made, the value's gone.
Like at under forty seven it made sense. Maybe at
under forty six it made sense, but now it's down
to forty four, so all those injuries have already been
factored into that betting line. Having that information becomes meaningless,
and I would actually look if this continues to drop
to possibly go over at that point, because again, even
though you don't expect a ton of offense turnovers, special
teams like, there's a lot of way to score points
without needing a high profile offense, especially in the NFL,
especially of total below fifty, So for me, I lean
San Francisco and over. But unless I get any confirmation,
especially on the total, because I don't see it on
the side, I probably will sit this one out and
move into the Sunday action because football's been good to us,
and I'll stay selected.
Speaker 1: It's a great game for props. I'll be going over
some props later. Even yeah, it's it's a great game
for props. There's a lot of good, good props out there.
The books are struggling with what numbers to put on
some of these players, so we got some good looks.
I'll go over a few at the end. Let's move
to Sunday. What are you seeing on some of these
NFL games?
Speaker 3: All right, A lot of that the look aheads got hit,
but there hasn't been much followed through. Hasn't been much steam.
And that tends to happen as the season progresses because
the lines get tighter, meaning not that the margin of
a is a lot greater, because it's always around that
ten points that they're off from the point spread on average.
But most of the moves are are based on injuries
and public knocking lines out of whack, which doesn't happen
until later in the week. But some of the moves
that we have seen already start off with the Miami
Dolphins not surprising. There's a little recency bias there. Everybody
just saw them on Monday night. Look good, get the
job done against the Jets, and again it's Carolina. No
one's worried about slight road favorite with Miami. They're one sided.
Denver Denver plus four and a half. Denver actually got
steamed while before actually the game even kicked off the
Monday night game for Denver, so they had already steamed
Denver before their game with Cincinnati. They look ahead at
plus four and a half. Hit the opener plus four.
That's why we're looking at three and a half right now,
with Philadelphia for seventy two, New Orleans at a pickum
and minus one. Fading that the New York Giants and
their new quarterback Detroit for seventy nine. Detroit, they laid
the ten just like they did last week. They laid
nine and a half last week. Detroit got the money.
They came right back again. It looks public, but they're
betting Detroit and they're betting the over as well. At
forty nine. They looked. They took Tennessee all the way
down to plus eight. They laid the key three with
Seattle and finally New England and Buffalo under fifty. So
we do have some action. It's still only Thursday, but
definitely some action in the NFL.
Speaker 1: I guess I don't understand why money would be coming
in on Cleveland because they changed quarterbacks. Like, no, I
don't like either team, but I'm just wondering. I'm just
wondering who's betting enough to move the line on an
overseas game with a quarterback chains and it just it
just kind of makes a little bit of sense. And
I listen, I'm the prop guy. I don't mess with spreads,
but boy, ten seems doesn't seem like enough for Cincinnati.
What's that Cincinnati team shown any fight, any competency. I
don't know. I'll let the people smarter than me it
spreads do that.
Speaker 3: One out scorts seventy six to ten to thirteen in
the last two weeks.
Speaker 1: Bro, It's really bad. It's really I actually liked Browning
last year. We cast some props on him to go
over his passing total. Boy, as he regressed, he has
just looked awful.
Speaker 2: Now let's move to.
Speaker 1: C Yeah, let's start to uh, let's look to college football,
anything of note that we need to pay attention to,
and then I want to get your thoughts on MLB.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll move it. I'm into Friday and quickly Saturday,
because I do have two four percents up tonight. I
had a strong lean on tonight's game on the side
in the total. One of the groups I worked with
came in on the side. Two of them came in
on the total. So I released the package that's up
at wager Talk for you guys. It's sign in total
on the Sam Houston New Mexico State game. Looking at tomorrow,
we did see some action come in on Colorado State
at six and a half. But now I'm starting to
see the six and a half pop up again because
San Diego State is going to be a heavy public side.
The recreational betters, they don't mind teasing college football, even
though it's it's a negative BB situation.
Speaker 2: They'll still do it.
Speaker 3: And they're gonna tease San Diego State down to pick them,
that's for sure. So the books are trying to limit
their risk and they're moving that six to six and
a half. But when they do, it's kind of getting
picked off, so it lets them know that there is
gonna be some Colorado State sharp action out there at
near a touchdown Saturday action three twenty old Doming and
minus seventeen eighteen and eighteen and a half. Three sixteen
Appalachian State from plus two and a half to minus one.
So they took them as a dog and laid to
pick them as well. Three twenty one Kentucky plus the
twenty one, three twenty five Kansas minus four four and
a half and five three fifty two Georgia State plus twenty.
That's opposite public money. I keep seeing the opposite on
recreational betters for whatever reason. Three sixty Nebraska minus eleven
three ninety six A and M minus to thirteen and
finally a total that we bet yesterday Unlvyoming under fifty
one and a half. So not a lot of moves
early in the week in college football. But today is Thursday,
and that means the totals start coming in. I talked
about it on Ben on It that if you start
looking at the Odds logic screen today at about nine
am our time, which is Now, over the next couple hours,
even into the evening, you'll start seeing a lot of
the totals move for whatever reason Thursdays when they fire
on legit, legit college football totals. So pay attention to
line moves on Thursdays.
Speaker 1: All right, Justin says in the chat, Yeah, ten is
a lot in the NFL. All right, justin moment of truth,
you gotta put your hard earned money on Jake b
that's the question. So let's move to MLB. We got
three games today. I get I gotta tell you, Yanni, I'm.
Speaker 2: So proud of God.
Speaker 1: Go ahead, I I just I have to say, I'm
so proud of Tokyo Brandon. He pegged this Reds team
total over two and a half in both of the games.
He was like, this Dodgers bullpen's complete trash. Take the
team total on the Dodgers opponent, and they easily hit
it both games. I'm so proud of him and I'm
so jealous. I didn't come up with with that bet
on my own, but uh, keep an eye on that
moving forward. The team total over on the Dodgers opponent
with that bullpen.
Speaker 3: So all right, you'll probably get good value, especially against
their ace, like they're one and two's.
Speaker 1: That's that was his points, Like, yeah, you get an
ace out there and then the bullpen comes in and
gives up two runs.
Speaker 3: So they're not let nobody, I'm playoffs. The're letting them
go a little bit longer. You stall the Boston do that,
but they're pulling these guys. You know, they're not letting
them go eight innings or anything like that. We're in
uncharted territory for the new wild card set up because
the trend has been the team that wins game one
wins the series. We don't go to a game three.
In fact, sixteen or the last twenty I think that's
how it ended. Like the team that won game one
ended up winning game two. That was Now we have
three game threes. Obviously, the home team has the advantage,
even though you know home field advantages and is big
in Major League Baseball, and when it comes to the playoffs,
you definitely have to factor that in. It's definitely warranted.
So I'm not surprised to see every home team open
as the favorite. But again San Diego and the Cubs
coming into that series, you had already seen love for
San Diego, so I'm not surprised to see that line drop.
So far, what we're seeing, I haven't seen sharp action
get really get into the window and fire. Yet I'm
not surprised because with the playoffs, it's been happening later,
even like an hour ninety minutes before game time, a
lot coming off of after the public unloads. Because again,
during baseball, the recreational betters, even though you know sports
betting's blown up, it's it's still sharps first the books
and a lot of matchups in Major League Baseball. When
the playoffs come, that's just not the case. And they
will influence a lot of these lines. And that's why
I pay attention to some of the later line moves.
But the signs that are being bet the most right now, Cleveland.
I'm seeing like seven eight out of every ten bets
come in on Cleveland and.
Speaker 2: The Yankees.
Speaker 3: They're taking the Yankees tonight, also over Boston. Tough series,
tough series. They like those favorites, and again not surprising,
not surprising.
Speaker 1: All right, Joanni, it's a game show. We just have
made a bet live in the chat, all right, all right,
Justin's putting his money where his mouth is, so am
I if since he covers Justin gets a three day
package on me, if Detroit covers Justin gets a three
day package, that package will start next Friday. That way
you get all UFC, NFL and everything. That's a deal justin.
This is great, this is great. This is awesome. So
let's see anything else of note, Janni, anything else do
you want to talk about?
Speaker 3: I got a five percent comment in the UFC. I
was a oh yeah, ladays. I was there Tuesday, I
was there Wednesday. How the fighters were there?
Speaker 4: Man?
Speaker 3: That's what's cool when they're there for the press conferences
and you're in there walk because they're in the makeup
room too, so you're talking and they all want to
know the gambling guy's opinion, you know, like who do
you like? And even on other sports, like they ask
about football and stuff like that. So while they're doing that,
I'm prying for information as well, because they just see
things I don't you know what I mean, and just
help certain fighters match up. And it's fine because a
lot of times they don't want to say anything negative
about another fighter, so they don't want to even give
an opinion, but they share enough that you know what
they're saying, you know, so, yeah, I got a little
confirmation yesterday, and I really like a fight on this
top top top UFC three twenty car and where I'm
at right now, if you're in Vegas, that's where they're staying.
They're at Trump it's the UFC. No. I ran into
half the production crew when I went down.
Speaker 1: All right, well let's hey, let's talk UFC. We got
a message that Dave Masons sick today, apparently got sick
in his Cubic goal in Aruba. All right, so let's
go over some UFC leans for this weekend, Adam. Yeah,
So UFC guys a lot of big favorites. Yanni, you
were saying, this is like a lot of guys are
minus two to fifty minus three hundred, and you're like, yeah,
they should win, but boy, they're making you pay a
pretty penny. What are some fights you got your eyes on.
I'll go through some of them as well. Pull.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's where I feel like the Boscheronts, the Chasn's
like where I think, like Janna Santos, I think at
plus one seventy she offers value. I don't think Chassan
should be a two to one favorite. Over anybody really
at women's bandam weight. But real quickly as talk main event,
I think on Calive gets it done once again defending Champ.
We know the trend with that rematch. We know the
trend with that, and Beheta hasn't gotten any younger since
last year. I think Unclive has the answer. I like
the Uncle Live side in the Komine event. I'm for
whatever reason, man, I just think san Hagen's live. I'm
on an island by myself. I've been a rob backer
for a long time. I just think at this point
I'm looking for an opportunity to fade them. I'm probably
uh pick the wrong spot at least what the line
movement looks like. But I got to stick to my guns.
I like the Sanagen side. Another one real quickly, Emmett
and the Law. I'm seeing a lot of love for Emmett.
I get it.
Speaker 2: He's got power, so he's always live.
Speaker 3: But he's now lost three of his last four fights,
and they've been to the toughest guys. It was to Murphy,
to Pouria Rodriguez. But those fights take a lot out
of you. When you go five rounds with guys like that,
and he's now forty years old. I think this is
a nice showcase fight for Zillah. So again he's a
minus four hundred.
Speaker 2: He should win.
Speaker 3: But I say that to caution betters because I see
a lot of live dog talk about the Emmett sign,
pra Hashka, and Roundtree. I've always been wrong on Prahashka.
I always says over valued, and he always proves me
wrong and slaps me in my face for doubting him.
So for me, it's prosper past, probably for the rest
of my life. And uh, Piper, I like Piper over ABIs. Again.
I see the argument ABIs has got the wrestling and
Piper hasn't really been tested there. But he's gonna be
so hard to control even if FABS takes him down,
and that powers to equalizer. We see ABIs get rocked again.
So I'm sorry to go along, but I just went
through the whole main card.
Speaker 1: I think I want to touch on this. Josh Emmett's
the law. I'm just waiting and waiting waiting. I'm gonna
takes the law by decision. Here's why I was going
to ask you.
Speaker 3: I want to ask you a prophe because I want
to bet the law I do.
Speaker 1: It's a law by decision all day. It's law by
decision all day, all day. Here's why I've I am
constantly told that josh Emmett has this insane power. Okay,
he has one knockout in his last seven fights, you
give give me a break, and it was against a grappler.
But it was so violent that he I mean, listen,
he he he damaged Bryce Mitchell. Bryce Mitchell has has
to have set after that. He's not been the same.
Uh But but one knockout in the last seven fights
is not mean you're this insane knockout guy. He's slowed down,
He's he's forty. My only caution is that you know
who he's training with, TJ. Dillashaw. Oh yeah, all that
the guy that's that's good for the old, for if
any and Zallala is fast. I think he does exactly
what he did to Cater last week, like stick and move,
uses speed, get the wrestling's.
Speaker 3: Minus one sixty and his highs two hundred.
Speaker 1: So yeah, so I like that one. I like round Tree.
I like round Tree as a dog. You and I
go ahead to head. I'm I'm all aboard the morob Tree. Money.
Speaker 3: I hope for Hushka get loses. To be honest with you,
I want you to be right around. That line does
look a little suspect to me. I thought because round
Tree stock went down. His stock went up when he
lost the behead on and then his his win, it
actually went down. So I agree with you there. And yeah, listen,
man fading Morob, no one's gotten rich doing that. So true,
it's not gonna be hard for you to argue the
Morob's side. You know what I mean, I get truth.
Speaker 1: Uh, you got a Chris Gudiera's fight. That means it's
an over. I'm with you on Santos as a live dog.
Patchy actually mixed. I would stay away from I see
a lot of love for Patchie. This guy he's fighting
coming off.
Speaker 3: You know what stucked out to me the most, what
real thin calves like from the cat the cat to
the ankle, because he was just standing next to me
waiting for like the valaid whatever, and like it looked
he looked so thin there. I'm like I'd be topping
those those cab cakes today.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this guy's fighting is a wild card. Wick Laws.
This guy's wick Laws has fought the same guy five
times in his career. It's just a really really strange one, right. Uh.
He can do a little everything. Striking grappler. You have
mister Paige van 'sant fighting.
Speaker 3: I saw I saw him in Page at the restaurant.
Speaker 1: Oh did you really okay?
Speaker 3: Pager here staying at Trump too nice?
Speaker 1: And then uh, Brogan Walker is one of the worst
fighters I've ever seen in the UFC.
Speaker 3: You can probably you're probably right, and rob By Decisions
probably the place.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, uh, I would say Veronica Hardy fight over
or two and a half rounds is minus four ten,
be careful with that. Broken Walkers so bad, she's so
bad on the ground. And Veronica Hardy has got a
brilliant coach, Dan Hardy.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and in that game.
Speaker 1: He's gonna show her how to take Broken Walker down.
Don't be surprised if Hardy wins and blows everybody's parlays
with that with the with the over.
Speaker 4: So.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it's good stuff. It's you're gonna have to
lay juice or get creative with with some of these
UFC fights. So uh uh uh do you do PFL Yeah, yes.
Speaker 3: On occasion, like when I have time, because I handicapped. Like,
if any of my originator, the two that I work
with have a play on it, I use it. I
usually piggyback it because they're they're selective there and if
they have something historically it's done well. But I like
when I have time the handicap, the card. You know,
it's just when it's so many with football and everything,
sometimes I just don't saw a pass, so I don't,
you know, force anything.
Speaker 1: We will have PFL plays for clients that are going
to be a part to the UFC package. The big
matchup is uh Usman Nrgaman met off against Paul Hughes.
That line is ridiculous. Minus two eighty five is laughable.
Paul Hughes is a live dog. He almost almost beat
him last time. Uh Kyla Lochran is fighting, he's making
his PFL debut. You got Sergio Pettis who's probably gonna
get beat. We like Archie Colgan. And then you got
a plus three twenty underdog that we like, Slim Traub
I think it's pronounced trab beezy uh is a really
good wrestler. Here's no world he should be PLUSFL, right, yeah,
this is PFL, so so uh yeah, right, Eric, we
did MLB. We did plenty of MLB.
Speaker 3: TESSI betts real quick. I wish you the best of luck,
my brother.
Speaker 2: I wish you.
Speaker 3: I wish you luck. That's a good bet you have
in your pocket. I got the Fills in my pocket.
I'm just gonna keep it real with you. I bet
the Phillies earlier in the season at ten to one.
I didn't give it the subscribers because I had already
given them Seattle and another future. But now when the
playoffs started, I did give them the Phillies at at
five to one. I have the Phills. I have a
future on the Phills, and I have a future on Seattle.
Those are the team I'm pulling for in the playoffs,
so I'm biased towards both because of those big tickets.
But I wish you lucked, Tessie. It'll be a tough,
tough series Dodgers and Phills. I'll tell you that.
Speaker 1: Last before I let you go, Yanni anything in w
n B A. I was so bummed by the way,
what a brutal is my.
Speaker 2: Five dollars Tuesday.
Speaker 3: At minus eight.
Speaker 1: I was just getting ready to say brutal beat for fever,
but what a cat is by you? Holy cow?
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: So we got Phoenix in Vegas minus three. I see
a little bit of money on Vegas. Uh Mark was
actually gonna be at that game.
Speaker 3: Totals climbing. But I like the under. I like it's
if I have to bet this, I'm telling you, if
I have to bet this, I would be on Phoenix
and under. And this is I'm in Vegas. It's tough
to win here. This line to me is just it
tells me. I like Phoenix, man, I like Phoenix.
Speaker 1: All right, all right, let's do it. Deianni one more time.
What do you have up for clentsight?
Speaker 3: I got a two pack to night Side and Total
in the college football primetime game number one in college football.
We won in week zero one, in Week one one,
Week two one, and week three one and week four.
We're gonna wow win every single week. We turned the
profit for every single week, and the same thing. NFL
regular season. Didn't do good in preseason, but number one
in regular season. I have an NFL package for Saturday Sunday.
I got the college football for Saturday. No need to
fire five percent because the four percents have been so strong.
But I do have a five percent.
Speaker 2: In the UFC.
Speaker 3: That package will be up probably within the next sixty
minutes and Baseball as well, as soon as I confirm.
So this is a good time to jump on for
a longer term package because we're just so much going
on with betting all those markets and winning as well.
So I'll take it. I'll take it.
Speaker 1: Yanni the Greek, thank you so much for staying on
for extended period of time. Good luck on all your bets.
We'll see everyone. We'll see him tomorrow for Football Friday again. Guys.
Football Fridays have been an absolutely just a smash it
Like the numbers are through the roof. On Football Fridays,
Teddy Covers comes on and we do sell me. He
breaks down games. We've got Marco, We've got Yanni. It
is a massive, massive show, so make sure you're here
on a Football Friday tomorrow. Ethan was asking about McLaren
double podium. McClaren cannot get out of their own way.
I just I'm not gonna be betting on McLaren and yeah,
Shaneian Ginsberg at the Roval in Charlotte. The only problem
is it's the playoffs. He's out of it. So he
might pull out of the way and just let the
guys in the playoffs fight for it. So can't say
I'm that excited to bet on Van Ginsberg. That being said,
he's probably gonna win by five seconds. So we do
have a UFC five percent best bet that is up.
We're hitting sixty percent of our five percent plays this year.
Good number. I'd like that to be about sixty five
percent by the end of the year, so we got
a few months to increase that number. But I absolutely
love a few plays on this UFC card, So we
got a five percent play. You can use the promo code.
You guys are gonna love this promo code. It's a
theme of the week. Bang ten b a G ten
get you ten dollars off this five percent UFC best
bet included we're gonna put in PFL bet of the
week as well as any other plays that we have
in UFC. So use a promo code. Bang ten. It's
time to bang with Andy Lang, as the saying goes,
So take advantage of that. Loving this five percent best bet.
I have already played this across multiple books with my
own money, and I think you guys should too, all right,
Dan let's do all around the world. Chris Big Dog
Allen Dan asked me to do do Big Dog in
the House asks me to do some props for tonight's game.
I mentioned de Yanni. I think this is a fantastic
a prop betting card. We're gonna get some disagreement. I
already see you SF Niner in the chat. You disagree
with the second one. Kyle us Check over nine and
a half receiving yards. This line is incredibly too low
yet Jennings that's out, Pierce All is out, and all
these injuries means guys like DeMarcus Robinson is gonna have
to catch passes. Christ McCaffrey's gonna have to catch passes,
and Kyle Huscheck is gonna have to catch passes. Last week,
with all these injuries, this man had three catches for
thirty two yards. He can catch, He's got good hands,
they trust him, they will run multiple plays for him.
So I love this nine and a half yards he does.
He can get this with one catch. And just also
let you know how much I like this. I think
the books are a little confused on it because they
have his receptions at one and a half. If he
goes over one and a half. He's going to get
over nine and a half receiving. So I like Matthew
Safford to throw at an interception. I know I saw in
the chat there was some people saying we'd like him
to throw an interception. I like him not to throw
an interception. The forty nine Ers don't have an interception
this year, and he didn't throw an interception in either
game against San Francisco last year. If the Rams get up,
he's not gonna throw a whole lot. It could be
a nice Blake korm and Kyraen Williams game. So I'm
looking at Stafford to not throw an interception, and let's
do a same game parlay. This one pays about plus
four to eighty. Blake Koram's usage was very interesting last week,
so I'm gonna take him to get twenty five plus
rushing yards. The forty nine Ers gave up four point
seven yards per carry last week, and Korum got nine carries.
Kyen Williams got thirteen. Short week. I think this is
when they mix in multiple running backs because you don't
want your running backs to be playing on Sunday and
then Thursday with full workload. So I expect both guys
to get plenty of carries. I think this number is
really really good value. So I'll take korm to get
twenty five plus rushing yards. I'll take Stafford to throw
two plus touchdown passes. He's been throwing the ball in
the ends on a lot seven in his last three games.
I think the Rams are able to move the ball.
And then we'll take DeMarcus Robinson forty plus receiving yards. Again,
no Pierce All, no Jennings, So there's gonna be guys
that come out of nowhere to get catches. DeMarcus Robinson,
he's a sneaky ad in your fantasy leagues. So that's
your same game. Parlay Blake Corn twenty five plus rushing,
Stafford to throw two touchdown passes in DeMarcus Robinson forty
plus receiving yards. All right, Dan, let's talk a little survivor.
Normally we save the survivor talk for tomorrow, but we
got an interesting game tonight.
Speaker 2: Have a devision. We have a decision.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So it's forty nine ers, riddled with injuries. It's
a lot going on, and so you were saying, do
we take the Rams tonight? Make the case for taking
the rams.
Speaker 4: Yeah, one thing real quick, Andy, when you were talking
props there too, my ears kind of perked up because
the thing is with this forty nine ers team, like
someone is going to catch the ball. They're not just
gonna hand it off. They're gonna hand off to Christian
macaffrey probably twenty times. But they're also going to have
to put the ball in the air. So one thing
that I think I'm toying with, I gotta shop around
on the number and see if I find something I
like a little bit more. But Jake Tanjas the backup
tight end here for the San Francisco forty nine ers.
He's filled in nicely in George Kittlestead. It's something that
Kyle Shanahan frequently uses in his offense. Now, they're kind
of pricing you out because they got his receptions on
DK sitting at two and a half, but minus won
sixty two to the over. That's a fine parlay piece,
But we're not laying minus one sixty two on a
bet the receiving yards. Again, I'd like to shop around
because they're hanging it at twenty nine and a half.
I lean that, but he's only averaging just over thirty
one yards per game, and that's when they also had
other receivers.
Speaker 2: So I think anywhere in that.
Speaker 4: Like twenty six to twenty eight range good bet for
Jake toanjis you're eyeing a couple of different guys on
the other side, I think, you know, if the Rams
do get up their nine point favorites, they'll have to
pass the ball. Jake Tons is going to be definitely
involved in that. So four we talk survivor A little
prop there for you, Andy, I know, I knew I could.
I could tickle your lancy there with a little with
a little backup tight end talk, baby, don't don't.
Speaker 1: Don't you threaten me with a good time taking it
over on a backup tight end on Thursday Night football.
These are the ones.
Speaker 4: Because he scored a touchdowns. The secrets kind of out,
you know what I mean. But I think if you
shop around on maybe like a Caesars or something like that,
you should find some better prices them with DraftKings kind
of hanging currently, these.
Speaker 1: Are the props that hit. These are the ones that
the books can't get the numbers right on, Like they're
gonna be big numbers on Justin Jefferson and Bjon Robinson,
but yeah, Tom Tom, just some of these other guys.
Speaker 4: There's one time fast I listened to they call him
Ton just mcbasketball, and I don't know why.
Speaker 2: It cracks me up every time.
Speaker 4: So Ton just mcbasketball over is Andy uh Any thoughts
DeVante Adams anytime touchdown?
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, I'm pulling up his game log right now.
He has a touchdown catch in each of his first
three games. And what's interesting is Puka's only got one. Yeah,
Puka's only got one touchdown pass. So it's like Pooka
moves the chains and then did they get in and
throw it? So I can't argue with it. My My
biggest problem I have with these touchdown props is the
numbers are are laughable, Like like trying to pick a
touchdown prop at one oh five is ridiculous, Like they
had they had the defensive propt like plus four fifty,
but like in one of these things, like do you
how hard it is a preticted defensive touchdown, You're only
gonna give me plus four fifty on it. So there's
a few touchdown props that I like. But the thing
with touch props is you have to play him every
week like what we do with Jalen Hurts. You have
to just you play him every week and you hope
that you're twelve and five at the end of the
year eleven and six. So if you're gonna play Devonte
Adams this week, you just play him every single week
on the streaks and hope to be up at the How.
Speaker 4: About the prop that keeps on giving Andy that's disgusting
to sweat the entire game on Will Matt Stafford moved
forward at all? Matt Stafford every week? Well, I think
he's gone like negative three negative four Neil downs. I
think he's gone over a half yard once this year.
Speaker 2: So if you want to sweat.
Speaker 4: Out a little minus one thirty seven on Matt Stafford
to go under a yard, you know that's that's another
gross prop there for you that that could that.
Speaker 2: Could be a full unch.
Speaker 4: We could just make a disgusting same game parlay with
with plays.
Speaker 2: Like that, like Matt Stafford under.
Speaker 4: Rush yards you know what I mean, Adams not score
a touchdown, to not score a touchdown gross.
Speaker 1: I'll give you a plus one forty prop. Let's just
sit out there and nobody's paying attention to. Uh, you know,
Justin Fields doesn't throw a lot of touchdown passes, but
I get plus one forty for him to throw over
one and a half touchdown passes against the Cowboys. Have
you have you seen that defense?
Speaker 4: Everybody throws it, Andy, you could throw a touchdown against
the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: I'm just saying, Jordan loved to throw over one and
a half was a client play last week, and that
could not have been easier. So I'm just taking quarterbacks
against the Cowboys. Any quarterbacks look ahead, any quarterback against
that Cowboys defense. It just has to be they can't
get pressure on the quarterback and they can't guard anybody
in the secondary. Like it's just a recipe for overs
on that one.
Speaker 2: So all right, Andy, So what I like to look
ahead there?
Speaker 4: Last thing I'll say props and then we'll talk is
this potential survivor play. I saw some people in the
chat saying they already switched from Colts to the Rams.
I'll throw a little ice water on that. But I
mentioned Jake Tanjis, how about a plus four to twenty
five anytime touchdown score, little sprinkles, little half unit play.
Jake tonjis if I like him to be involved. I
like him to be involved towards the goal line. It
can't all be Christian McCaffrey plus four twenty five.
Speaker 2: Lock it in.
Speaker 4: I'm betting it myself. Jake Tanjis Tanjas mcbasketball to score.
Speaker 2: We got to figure out.
Speaker 1: Where the mcbasketball's come from.
Speaker 2: I have no clue.
Speaker 4: I have no clue where it came from, but it
gets me every time. All right, Andy, So as far
as this game is concerned, the whole reason that I'm
on here number one because all.
Speaker 2: Of our guests bailed on us.
Speaker 4: But number two because before the show I logged in
and I go, Andy, do we just go rams for
Survivor tonight? Because I'll tell you what, Man, we talked
about how like week three could potentially be a wonky week.
You know Week two is usually overreaction week where it
gets wonky. This board is a landmine of games, you
know what I mean. Like, it's really great betting ats board,
but as far as calling your shot, picking your winner,
it's a tough week to do so. And you know,
I'm looking at some of the bigger favorites. So what
we got the Indianapolis Colts against the Las Vegas Raiders.
That one could be worth a look. Arizona against Tennessee.
Speaker 1: I that's your number one on bet online right now.
It's it's thirty of submissions are on the Cardinals.
Speaker 4: I think Arizona probably wins that game by a field goal.
I don't think they cover. So when I don't think
a team covers a big spread, it makes me a
little bit worried to be laying them. You know, in Survivor,
you got Detroit their road favorites. That's the other one
that I'm toying, like, there's there is there is infinite
amount of universes Andy, and I don't know if there's
one of those universes where Detroit loses to Cincinnati.
Speaker 2: Like like you know, you know what I mean.
Speaker 4: I know, like Cincinnati bad, But not only are they bad, Andy,
the effort is not there. And Jake Browning I kind
of feel for because the offensive line is what's absolutely
killing him. Like he was capable of the year he
came in because the offensive line was holding him down.
This year he's just running for his life. And then
you got Buffalo against New England. That's an eight and
a half point favorite. So I toyed Andy with just saying,
you know, we did it the other week when I
was like, I'm just doing Buffalo. Let me lock it in,
let me just move on with my life on a
Thursday night football. For this one, though, here's something that
gives me a little bit of pause, is yes, the
line has completely moved.
Speaker 2: What was it was like four? Then it was up
to five and a half, six and a half.
Speaker 4: Yeah're looking at the Rams minus nine. Shanahan has absolutely
dominated McVay, and this feels like one of those spots
where if Shanahan really is just better than McVay, that's
not a fluke. This is one of those spots where
it's rallied the troops in some way, somehow they pull something.
Speaker 2: Out of their ass.
Speaker 4: So here, how about the fact that Mike Shanahan, or
excuse me, Kyle Shanahan. It would be incredible if Mike
Shanahan there but Shanahan ten and five straight up, nine
and six against the number when they's looking to have revenge.
They lost both games last year, really rough year for them,
nine and one straight up eight and two, when his
Niners currently have a winning record, like this is a
really good Shanahan spot. And that's not just ats numbers.
We're talking about nine and one straight up trends and
ten and five straight up trends. So I toyed with
it with you, Andy, to start the show. I wouldn't
be shocked that this is one of those weird Thursday
night football games. I'm not betting San Francisco on the
money line, but I think I would be kicking myself
if I used a Thursday night football game, a division
game that the line got out of hand, and I
lose on a game that I know Shanahan has a
leg up on McVeagh.
Speaker 2: Good luck to those who are switching picks to the rams.
Speaker 1: You're not doing on.
Speaker 4: Friday, we decide what we're picking. I can't do it, Andy,
Oh wow, all right, Teas. I know. It was just
it was it was as as the show was going
on and you and Johnny were kicking stuff around. I
was like, let me look up, because I was like,
I think I remember like Shanahan kind of beats up
McVay a little bit. And then I started pulling the numbers.
Those those two trends that I got was from our
friend Mark Lawrence. You know that that does give me pause,
Like that's a big enough sample sized Andy that where
there's fire, there's smoking. Yeah, there's no there's no troops there,
But there was also no troops the other week where
I loved San Francisco with Mac Jones as the quarterback.
When the line moved against them, they win that game
out right, So you know, good luck to those who
are doing it.
Speaker 2: I can't on Thursday night football. I'm just going matan
just mcbasketball touchdown.
Speaker 1: Lord King Guru says, Dan, you're overthinking it. Just trendso
matter when says hey man.
Speaker 2: I agree, I agree.
Speaker 4: But in the chat for for the most for the
most part, I have one thousand percent three with Lord
King Guru. And with a name like that, how could
you not agree with the He's not only kings, not
only a king, he is also a guru. So I
do agree with you, and I'm not I'm not a oh.
I put all my eggs in the trends basket. I
think people fall into that way too much. But when
I look at some of these trends, I'm not looking
at who's good on grass on Wednesday nights when it's raining.
Speaker 2: You know what?
Speaker 4: I mean, like, I'm looking at things like this where
it's clear domination from one coach over another, and you
can say, oh, they're decimated. There's still NFL players that
are on this roster, Like, I think that's one thing
where maybe we, uh we turn a blind eye and
put too much stock into injuries. These injuries are spread
out all over. There's maybe a cluster injury here and there.
Cluster injury would be in the in the wide receiver
corps for this San Francisco forty nine ers team, but
they're not a let's air it out in pass first
offense anyways. And they do have a capable back who
can who can get things, you know, in the flat
and move it down. So Lord King Guru, I typically
would agree with you in that sense. Maybe I am
overthinking at a week five of survivor I'm still alive.
This is when you do maybe do a little over
analysis because there's other games on the board that I
still like, why force myself into it? If this is
week sixteen and I only have rams, Oh my god,
we did amazing, right, But I got the Coltons, I
got the Lions, I got you know, it's the Buffalo Bills.
I mean, I use them, but there's some some other
spots that you can pick. So that's the thought for me.
And I don't know, let's circle.
Speaker 2: Back, Dandy. Maybe there is an outright winner for the
forty nine ers.
Speaker 4: And then and then I will bow to the Lord
King Guru and say told you so.
Speaker 1: My good sir, I got a sneaky, disgusting one. And
that's the Houston Texans. I was thinking at Baltimore, that's
gonna be no defense. This is a bit. This is
a brutal, brutal week that Texans defense is good and
their offense is good enough to score on that decimated
defense of Baltimore. I see zero injuries in the bed
online contest for Houston. That's that's stunny.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, because it's the road.
Speaker 4: You had a team who has now flipped complete favorites.
Speaker 2: It's a giant line move there.
Speaker 4: But but that's something A contest pick for me is
going to be Houston, you know, even if I have
to lay the two simply because I think there's there's
more going on than just the injuries for Baltimore. I
think a lot of people aren't discussing that whole blow
up that happened on the sidelines between Lamar, between Harbaugh
and and you know, Lamar ends up sitting out. Clearly
the injury was, you know, a little smoke where there's
fire there.
Speaker 2: But uh, yeah, I'm with you.
Speaker 4: I don't know if I could do it in Survivor
because I already got yelled at by Kelly. I was like,
I kind of want to take New Orleans and Survivor.
I love New Orleans. This week to beat the giants.
I think they get their first win. New Orleans isn't
gonna go winless, folks, They're just not They're not going
on in seventeen. We're going to win one game. I
think the one game is. People are really overrating how
good Jackson Dart looked because it was us the new
shiny toy. The passing yards weren't that great, you know,
the Reids weren't that great. He made really good decisions
running when he had to, But you were doing that
at home.
Speaker 2: Now you're going on the road to a very hostile place. Yet.
Speaker 4: Do I love Spencer Ratler No, I think he's disgusting.
But I think we're getting a little bit ahead of ourselves.
And you have the kind of internal thing where you
lose your best player in elite neighbors too. Oh we
have other guys who can step up. We have Camp Scattabo.
There's still all rookies that are going to one of
the hardest places in the NFL to play. I don't
care who's on the other side. It's a screamer New
Orleans spot. So uh so we'll decide what.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're just just would like to point out to
the where to the part of the NFL season where
people are spending a lot of their fab free agency
budget on Darius Slayton, then DeMarcus Washington or DeMarcus Robins.
So that's where we are right now in the NFL.
So all right, guys, Dan, thank you so much. You
you threw it for Loop. I thought you were coming
on and taking the rams, but.
Speaker 2: I thought so too.
Speaker 4: I thought so too, and then I saw those numbers
and then I was like, wait, it's Thursday night football,
and weird shit happens in Thursday night football.
Speaker 1: So that was stuff, all right? All right? Special thanks
to the guest on Today show.
Speaker 4: Bave Mai Joe's m i A. So you're stuck with
Andy and so you can Thanks Agle.
Speaker 1: Today was banging with lang in here. So yeah, So
shout out to all of our guests today, h shout
out to Chat. You guys were the real MVP today.
You guys crushed it. Thank you so much. And again,
Football Friday is tomorrow the most important episode of the
show that we do every single week. We're gonna get
you ready for Saturday and Sunday again. Don't forget to
use the promo code bang ten. That's bang ten gets
you ten dollars off my five percent UFC best bet,
and that best bet is gonna come with more UFC
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NFL prop that we have for Sunday and Monday, coming
off of a three and oh stretch in the primetime games.
Let's get this, let's get the street going good. All right,
Thanks everyone for joining us. Good luck on all your
bets tonight. Good luck if you're in play on the
rams in Survivor, We're gonna do it again tomorrow. Good luck.
Take care,