Speaker 1: Your happy Saturday. Welcome to last call here on Wager Talk.
I'm the prop Queen Area Epstein, filling in for Kelly
and Vegas all summer long, including holiday weekends. You're welcome
Kelly in Vegas. We had a great Fourth of July yesterday.
It was beautiful in New York. According to Kelly, it
was horrible in Florida. So that's hilarious. Joey Chestnutt goes
under his seventy one and a half seventy and a
half total hot dogs eat in the public prevailed. Shout
out to the pub today. We've got a loaded show
Yanni the Greek and to come on and talk to
us about everything you need to know. Behind the counter,
we do have football in July. Yeah, we are talking
to CFL and Andrew mckinnis from Canada going to answer
all your questions. Teddy Covers he's promoting actually the American NFL,
where we're going to talk all things NFL wins, totals.
Get you've started, because it's kind of like the start
of football season. When the Fourth of July is over,
it's time to crunch those numbers and go look at
those NFL futures. Last, certainly not least. We've got Major
League Baseball questions with Steve Merrill. I've got a few
MLB plays myself. Don't forget too if you like to
bet these Niche Markets Premier Lacrosse All Star Game is
starting at one pm Eastern time. We've got plays for that.
Dan and I, Kelly, we are all on the same
page for how to play it. If you want some
one pm action. I know there's a lot of day baseball,
so let's start with the one, the only, the Vegas Runner,
the Yanni, the Greek lebrom Las Vegas. I think we
never know if he's traveling or not. Yeah, he's in Vegas,
wearing another Phillies hat. He changes colors of Phillies hats
every week. What's up, Yanni?
Speaker 2: All right?
Speaker 3: I just bet if you could believe this three NBA
Summer League games as where as you were talking, I
swear to you. I just sent three to subscribers. I'll
give one out here, I'll give one out.
Speaker 4: I'll give two of them. I'll give you out of three.
Speaker 1: Is this starting now today?
Speaker 4: I believe.
Speaker 3: So it's got to be starting today, got to be
sporting today. So here I'm going to give you two
out of the three that I send subscribers because aeriels
looking nice and happy, ready to go make you guys
some money today.
Speaker 4: So I'm gonna give you two out of the three.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna give you five fifty four Golden State plus
five and a half. They're good at plus five Golden
State plus five or better, five point fifty five Memphis
Memphis minus two or better. We laid one and a
half and we laid minus two. You don't want to
go above two in it, you're better off laye the
minus one twenty to buy and a half a point.
If it goes to two and a half, it's worth
about twelve cents. You only got to pay ten cents,
so it's worth to buy at two two and a half.
I'll just give all three. Why not, subscribers already got them,
They already bet them. They got the best numbers. Hopefully
it's still available for you guys as well. And finally,
five twenty two Miami minus five. So you just got
three premium plays that I just sent to subscribers minutes ago.
You got Golden State Warriors plus five and a half.
You got Memphis minus the two and you got Miami
minus the five Golden State Memphis in Miami. That was
the worth the price of admission alone. Just close the
show off. Now you're good.
Speaker 2: You're good.
Speaker 1: That's hilarious. I didn't even realize that we were starting yet.
And of course I'm on the New Jersey Book right now.
I don't even see anything on FanDuel. Maybe DraftKings will
have it. I'll have to go scoping around for some
of those plays. But Summer League is a real deal.
I know so many people that love to get action
down on it, just like Yanni does on spring training,
like only the best of the best get it down
on this crazy slits of games. Yanni, anything that you
see in Major League Baseball today.
Speaker 3: All right, here's what we got in baseball. Let me
set y'all yesterday yesterday, five minutes, five minutes before the
games went before first pitch for three series. We bet
three series. I couldn't even release these two subscribers because
the cutoff at wager Talk. We do it ten minutes
with my guys. Because a lot of my stuff is
time sensitive. I get a lot of good late information
and I got to give them at least that ten
minute cutoff. I wish we had a five minute cut off.
They probably get even more stuff because a lot of
the biggest stuff comes very late. Would be surprised how
late some of the biggest positions come. I mean, I've
seen some of the biggest bets in MMA happen when
both guys are in the cage, and even some of
the books have taken down the number. But again, you know,
you have to have a cutof because better's got to
be able to get to play and fire. And we
bet three series yesterday.
Speaker 4: All three of them are dogs.
Speaker 3: We bet Athletics in their series at plus one fifty.
We bet the White Sox in their series at plus
one oh five, and we bet Tampa Bay in their
series at plus one twenty. Now, Athletics won last night,
White Sox won last night. So both of those dogs
are up one nothing in their series.
Speaker 5: So far, so good.
Speaker 3: We got to win one at the next two games.
Tampa is down one, so Tampa's got to win the
next two games. They got to win today and tomorrow
for that series. Bet to win for Athletics. In the
White Sox, we just got to win one out of
the next two games for those series. Bet to win.
So just keep that in mind as you're handicapping today's
baseball and tomorrow's baseball. That Athletics White Sox in Tenampa,
we're all bet to win their three game series this weekend. Now,
some of the bets that came in today in Major
League Baseball already nine oh two Cubs up to minus
one thirty nine, ten Toronto good to minus one eighty
nine to twelve, Cleveland plus one twenty. Everybody's on Detroit,
sharups on Cleveland there nine thirteen, Atlanta minus one thirty
nine to twenty nine, Pittsburgh plus one sixty and two
totals for you over eight and a half up to
minus one thirty so they don't have to go over nine.
That's Detroit, Cleveland, and the same thing Cincinnati Philly over
eight and a half good the minus one thirty rather
than having to go over nine even at a minus
one oh five price over eight and a half Cincinnati Philly.
So that's Cubs, Toronto, Cleveland, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh, and then
over Cincinnati over in Detroit both at eight and a half.
You got the series bets, you got NBA Summer League,
you are ready to make some money on this beautiful
Saturday morning.
Speaker 1: I love the over in the Cincinnati game because ever
since Nicolodola screwed me over on two different strikeout props
to start my season, I will fade Nicko Lodolo at
every time time, so over in the Cincinnati game because
Nicolodolo whatever, give up all the runs in the world.
If you guys also have questions in the chat, make
sure to ask them because apinly we love the interaction.
Make sure to like subscribe everything on wager Talk here
on Lat's call, and make sure to comment because we
are always answering your questions. Yanni's one for you.
Speaker 3: You're gonna like right now, just popped in Yankees Yankees
first five only, not game Yankees first five.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, the bulletens.
Speaker 3: Just so that's definitely a starting picture bet because if
you look at the game line.
Speaker 1: So they like I went to this little thing. Rodon
just came off of. I'm pretty sure Rodon just came
off of one of his worst starts of the season,
which wasn't surprising. And Frankie mont is so so uh no,
he gave up two runs were done in Toronto. But
aside for that he's had it somewhat decent season, so again,
put up.
Speaker 3: Runs for him.
Speaker 4: Like he's lost. They've lost four of the.
Speaker 3: Last five games he's pitched, and in only one of
those games did he give up more than three earned runs.
You know what I mean, He's given him five or
six innings every time.
Speaker 1: Arya it's not full game. It's Yankees first five is
the play?
Speaker 4: Yep? Yep?
Speaker 1: The Yankees last yesterday, just I mean, losing that game
was absolutely absurd. But Aaron Judge should have a good
game today. I actually like his over what did I
give out it given on the newsletter, I think it's
one and a half. Let me just double check the
exact play that I said in the newsletter. It was
the over one and a half total base Nope, hits
runs in RBI minus one oh five. Great market for props,
by the way, is the hits runs in RBI market,
So over one and a half. He's gone over it
in three games that he's played at the field, all
of them, and he's also gone over in seven of
his last ten road games. So something to just look
at for Aaron Judge today and if he does well,
usually the Yankees too well. Janni. We've got WNBA action
tonight too. Two different games on the slate anything in the.
Speaker 3: W Minnesota and on their Minnesota and on there. I
saw Minnesota at any nine's. I saw nine get picked
off on Minnesota and wait is that Minnesota? Oh yeah,
I'm seeing Summerly, I'm like, wait, where did that go?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Minnesota, any nine's got picked off and under the under.
Speaker 4: Moved a little bit. You could still probably.
Speaker 3: Find fifty five and a half fifty five. I wouldn't
go lower than that because they started bet they stopped
at like one fifty six and a half fifty six
now I've even seeing fifty four and a half's out there,
But if you could have any road, fifty five fifty
five and a.
Speaker 4: Halves are better.
Speaker 3: I think the younger's good there. And Minnesota minus the
nine that probably would get to ten before tidball, but
not nothing really big, nothing really big sticking out.
Speaker 1: Kashawn Michael asked if you like the Star plus five
and a half against the Fever.
Speaker 3: Sparks plus the five and a half. No, I don't really.
I don't have an opinion on that game at all.
What I can tell them is that a decent two
way action from the betting public. That's why that line
has it. It moved off the opener of six and
a half like seven actually, so you saw some short
money take the plus so you're on the side of
the sharper betters. But they took the opener at like
plus seven when it went to like five and a
half or even six is out there. They weren't really
the guys picking them off. I think it's even some
public money that are on the sparks today. So the
books will definitely lean want Indiana because it seems like
sharp betters that took the seven, and then the recreational
betters are taking the six and the five and a
halfs even so it's kind of like the books versus
the betters in that game. So you're on the sharp
side if you're on Indiana, I mean on LA. But
definitely one sided action, both public and sharps on the
same side.
Speaker 1: And no UFC right, No, no UFC right. UFC July twelve,
So we do have soccer and Wimbledon to sports that
aren't getting probably much attention from the public here in America. However,
I know soccer is always huge internationally and then Wimbledon too.
There's a lot of places to find edges. I know
that Pam Maldonado came on the prop Queen Pod went
to and oo in her plays. Have you guys been
getting any action on any of that stuff?
Speaker 3: Yeah, we didn't in the first round, like the first day,
second day, we fired, we lost, we lost. We got
three dogs. All three dogs didn't get the money. I
think at least one for subscribers, maybe two. But it
hasn't been one of those tournaments where they had a
lot of matchups. And again, you know, I tell you
when I win, I tell you when I lose. I
let you know when these guys are running hot when
they're not running hot. Tennis has been one of those
sports where primary historically has been money. I love when
I see tennis plays, but so far nothing has has
been doing really well in Wimbledon. And the only play
I saw today in the account so far was it's
an early game, probably go. I think it goes off
in like ten minutes. It's marin cilic, silicall I see.
Speaker 4: Over moonar, over Moonar.
Speaker 3: They laid like minus one sixty five and minus one
seventy on the favorite thing.
Speaker 1: Chill has just had the major upset in the last round,
so it makes sense to be fading him this time around.
Speaker 3: Yeah, eighty two one, so that I know.
Speaker 1: That a USA is playing Mexico in the CONCACAF Gold Cup,
and you've got USA at plus one oh eight slite
dog to Mexico minus one twenty six to lift the cup.
There's also the tie at two to one, so any
action there on USA Mexico's and so I'm sure USA
will be publicly bet here.
Speaker 3: That's what happened that that you nailed it. You didn't
even have to look. There's like very very low volume.
Like I said, the book I'm looking at right now,
they probably have about fourteen hundred public accounts. Not many
of them will be bet in this game. But the
like six betters that did, they all have the US.
They all have the U. So yeah, you can't blame
they're they're you know, cheering them in, cheering them in for.
Speaker 4: Fourth of July weekend.
Speaker 1: Well, I guess for America they think that the USA
will come through. Yanni, what are you promoting today?
Speaker 5: Baseball? Baseball?
Speaker 3: Baseball, baseball.
Speaker 4: I'll have two at least two.
Speaker 3: Four percent plays in there for you. In the baseball
I already gave out the three NBA plays. Hopefully we
get some more Summer League. Historically those have done really good.
I love those smaller markets, but just not a lot
of time, like if they're time sensitive plays, so you
have to fire. You can't wait too long because there's
just not enough volume from recreational betters to offset the
sharp action. And because that books are forced to move
that line pretty quickly, so you got to be quick
and have your outs ready to go. But those usually
do well, So hoping to get that. I won't have
a package up because I already gave them to you
guys for free. And here's what else I'll do any
else any other summer league that comes in today, it'll
be on my page for free. So over the next
two three hours while I'm still working this morning, stuff
and there's stuff coming in. Anything that I released the
subscribers in Summer League will also be off that way
to talk for free, so check that out on my page,
and of course my baseball package as well.
Speaker 1: That's what I love the best. That's the luck Janni
the Greek, Thank you so much. Enjoy the rest of
your Saturday. Always a winner. Check them out at Greek
Underscore Gambler guys. The gold Sheet, the daily statu sheet.
You have to look because each edition it's loaded by
nine am Eastern time each morning. It features two free plays.
Analysis is in there, tons of stats info on the
MLB slate. Visit WT dot Buzz, slash tgs and scroll
down to the download section access today's complimentary gold sheet.
Definitely go use it. Use all the tools that we
have a wager talk. They are super helpful, like odds
Logic dot com, slash prop Queen. You see Dan posting
all the odds Logic screens and that's what we're using
to see how lines moved throughout the day and you
could get a good feel for sharp action. Yeah prop Queen.
Addslagic dot com, slash prop Queen. Make sure to go
check it out and you guys can utilize the odd screen.
You guys ask if I like strikeout props today, I do.
Like Carlos Rodan under six and a half strikeouts. He's
gone under this and all three starts he's had against
teams with low car rates against lefties. That's the Mets
who have gone under in like sixty percent of games.
I actually have the exact number if you want. Before
we get to Andrew. The Mets have gone under against
lefties in seven, sorry, thirteen of the twenty games that
they face a lefty starter. So thirteen under seven overs
when facing the Mets as a lefty on their kprop
averaging four point four strikeouts a game six and a
half k's way too high for Carlos Rodan, so I
would go take the under bitjuiced minus one forty five
minus one forty But if you could still grab that,
I think that it's good value coming up now because
I know everyone misses football, everyone loves to talk football.
I know we don't have the NFL, yet we do
have the CFL, and that's why we bring on our
own our Canadian he's coming in from Cananada. And yes
I say Canada because it's an inside joke from when
I was in middle school. Andrew mckinnis, thank you for
hopping on on a Saturday.
Speaker 2: How are you good? Good? Great to see you. And
I know it's like a disappointment for people when you
talk football and it's not college football or NFL, it's
still football, and it gets me through the summer. So
I'm happy to talk about it. And when you've got
like forty handicappers just all battling over spots on the
website and for videos and clicks with MLB, it's kind
of refreshing to be like one of four people doing CFL.
So I'll take it.
Speaker 1: AREO, thank you. And I don't know what Shawn Michael said,
isn't it mckinnis McKinnon. I didn't say McKinnon. I don't
even know why I would. I would never say McKinnon.
I don't know. Maybe I did accident, but thank you.
I know it's Andrew mckinness. Okay, anyway, sometimes Sean Michael
throws me off my game. Let's talk some CFL. I
was so pumped because I saw in the chat that
you wrote that you have a prop.
Speaker 2: Yes, what is it? Yeah? It's awesome. Like so, for
years I was hesitant to give out props, whether it
be on wager talk or x or Instagram or wherever
with CFL, because first of all, every book was like
way different with how they graded everything or not greted thing,
how they posted their numbers, and you just don't want
to be given out props where one book has a
guy at sixty six rushing yards. One book has a
guy at fifty eight. I mean, that's just a massive difference,
but most books offer props. Now most of the time
it's relatively the same number here, and this is one
of those ones where we're just going to look at
kind of fading a player against an opponent's strength. And
the BC Lions have been horrid against the run, but
they've been really good against the past, the best passing
defense in the league. So we're going to take a
look at the best receiver statistically on the Monshaw Alouettes
under sixty eight and a half receiving yards. That's Tyson
Philpott under sixty eight and a half receiving yards. The
only game that he has gone over this number so
far this season has been against the Edmonton Elks, and
I will tell you nobody has trouble going over any
yardish numbers when they're playing against the Edmonton Elks, so
it doesn't really matter when you look at them. We
got forty eight, forty two, ninety six and forty one.
In that game against Edmonton, he had four receptions ninety
six yards and his average reception was twelve yards. So
sometimes when you look at a player's numbers, you can
be a little bit overwhelmed by Oh, well, that one
game he looked really good. Well, that one game was
against the worst defense and just overall the worst team
in the whole league. So you know, Montreal very well
could have a good day today. But their offense is
so deep. They have so many weapons both on the
ground and in the air that I think Tyson Philpott
will go under sixty eight and a half receiving yards.
Speaker 1: I love it. I love a prop under. I love
in an each more market. Andrew mccannis, you rock. You
know that you had to get me a prop. I
know that you also have a team total. So for
the people that don't like to bet unders because they're sadistic,
you do like an over.
Speaker 2: What is it? Well, you know this year in the CFL,
every team that has won has hit their team total.
Every team that has won so far has covered the
point spread. Sounds pretty easy, right, we're here in week five.
You pick the winner. That means you pick the point
spread winner. You pick the point spread winner. That means
you pick the team total winner. So you guys can
use that for what it is as far as this
play here, but I'm looking at Ottawa. The current number
over twenty seven and a half points plus one oh four.
You love getting that little I could have laid a
little chalk with the twenty six and a half. We'll
take over twenty seven and a half plus one oh four.
I love these team total bets. This is an Edmonton
team that I just talked about already when I talked
about the previous prop. Edmonton has surrendered on average thirty
five points per game. And Ariel when you look at
teams and you know the quarterback situation, handicapping based on injuries.
I know in a lot of sports you want to
bet on a team maybe when they're starting quarterbacks not
there because of the value. There's maybe one or two
teams you can do that with in the CFL. Winnipeg,
we cash a ticket with them in the first week
of the season when their backup quarterback had to start.
But the problem with the CFL, and you know, I'm
a huge advocate for the league, when you go from
QB one to QB two, or especially to QB two
to QB three, there is a massive massive drop off.
So Ottawa looked really good in Week one their quarterback
put up four hundred yards and then he got injured.
Because in the preview at wager talk dot com, I
said this Ottawa offensive line might not let their quarterback
make it to Week six. Well, he didn't even make
it out of the third quarter of Week one. But
he is back. He is making his return tomorrow night
on Sunday, seven pm Eastern Drew Brown, and I think
he will lead his team to success, but it's gonna
be a ton of points. So forget about worrying about
Ottawa winning, although I do think they will win. We'll
just bet the team total over twenty seven and a half.
No matter who Edmonton has played so far this season,
they've given up a ton of points. It hasn't even
been their offense. And that's what makes me laugh. The
media keeps talking about Edmonton's quarterback and the receivers and
all their players on the offensive side of the ball.
The real problem is, it doesn't matter who the quarterback
is for Edmonton if they can't get a stop. So
let's get some points in that one. And I got
a big five percent play going tonight in the CFL.
It's a side bet really like this one here, really
like the spot play sets up perfectly for us and
long term up fifty units on CFL five percent play.
It has been really selective, and you know, I think
back to a couple of years ago where I had
a really bad down year in the CFL, and even
in that down year, I crushed the five percent plays,
So very selective with these. We do well with the
big plays, and we step out and if you guys
are ready for a big week and a big night,
we got no UFC. Hey I got to play for
in the CFL five percent big bet?
Speaker 1: What time is it that, Andrew?
Speaker 2: Seven pm Eastern?
Speaker 1: There you go, seven pm Eastern. If you want some
football action, you got it up there in Canada. Andrew mckinnis,
thank you as always for coming on here on a Saturday.
And I know you said what you're promoting, So is
there anything else left or you got it all?
Speaker 2: Oh well, I believe we still have some time for
that Fourth of July special. I think that there's still
a couple of days left of that. So it's a
really good deal. Sixty nine dollars for a full week.
And I was honored to make the graphic as a
Canadian on here, so I love bet shout out to
the team at wager Talk there. So yeah, fourth of
July it was Canada Day, Yes exactly, I'm the first,
so I'm happy to get included since there was no
graphic for Canada Day. Sixty nine dollars all CFL plays,
the occasional MLB plays as well, and anything else that
I throw out there. Obviously five percent plays they're thirty
five dollars. So thirty five dollars in this one week
is sixty nine dollars. You guys do the math, you
know what's best for you. Hopefully you guys join me today.
Let's have a great day.
Speaker 1: Andrew mckinnis, thank you, as always, we appreciate you. Good
luck tonight. For the people that want some football action,
go ahead. It starts seven pm Eastern time for mckinness's plays.
Coming up. Now, we're going to talk some NFL. So
if you want some American football now that the fourth
of July is over, you want to start handicapping. You
know that this guy, Teddy Covers has been covering the
NFL for the last few weeks. He's talking with totals.
He's got you covered on all things futures and like
Shawn Michael said, we've got an NFL game in twenty
four days. It's time to bring on Teddy Covers. Thanks
for coming on, great to be here.
Speaker 4: How's Rockland today?
Speaker 1: Hi, it's great, it's beautiful. The weather's been awesome. The
weather apparently in Flora for Kelly, it was terrible. So
I was laughing because Kelly told me that New York
sucks and she says Florida's the best. And don't get
me wrong, I love Florida. I just was laughing that
her karma hit her on her favorite holiday, the Fourth
of July, that she got rain and we got eighty
five and sunny.
Speaker 4: Perfect.
Speaker 1: Thank you?
Speaker 2: What have you been up?
Speaker 1: Did you have a good Fourth of July?
Speaker 4: Sure? So, you know, it's one hundred every day here
in Vegas, so it's not like you're the weather change
a whole lot. In the summertime, it's hot and it's a.
Speaker 1: Great combers eat.
Speaker 4: On the fourth of July, I had a burger burgery.
Speaker 1: You're a burger over hot dog guy.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's just that's what the wife made me to
fire up on the grill. So it was burger's not hot.
Speaker 1: Well, let's get into some NFL action, because I know
it's something that you've really been focusing on, Teddy. What
could the people expect and what have you been doing
so far? Here at wager Talk for the NFL.
Speaker 4: So the NFL. My NFL Wind Report came out on Wednesday,
So it is basically hot off the presses right now.
It's one hundred and ninety nine dollars. For those of
you who want to buy it separate, you can use
promo code NFL one hundred, take one hundred bucks off
my full NFL season and get this report for free,
absolutely free right now on my pageby dot buzz, backslash TC.
This is something I've been in Las Vegas since nineteen
ninety eight. I started doing win reports in two thousand
and one was the first year that I released a
win report, and in that time one oh three and
fifty two sixty six percent over a twenty four year
sample size. And you're talking about locking up your money
long term. You don't want to do it unless you
have a darn good reason to. I think one three
and fifty two is a pretty darn good reason, and
I have chosen to lock my money up year after
year long term. The Big Ticket's been even better, you know,
sixty six percent counting every play, the five percent seventeen
and four eighty one percent. Last year, the New Orleans
Saints under were my five percent, and obviously they were
they there, uh rough start, they started too it. Oh,
it looked like the best team in football and then
proceeded to win only three games the rest of the season.
So the clients and I cash with New Orleans with
rum despair on that five percent Big ticket and the report.
You know, I mean you said it was a few weeks.
I've been working on this basically since about Memorial Day.
You know, after the draft you start to sit down.
I start to sit down and start looking at teams.
A Memorial Day you started really taking down notes and
getting ready. So it's been about six weeks worth of prep.
That's my standard for the NFL Wind Report, and it's
up and available right now on my home page w
dot Buzz, backslash TC.
Speaker 1: For anyone that has any questions for Teddy about the
NFL Wind Report or NFL futures wins totals in general,
write them in the chat. We could answer them as
soon as as long as Teddy is on So get
your questions in as as soon as you can, Teddy,
I know the Commanders are a team that you've got
your eye on. What have you seen out of Washington?
Speaker 4: Well, we have more than all right on, We've got
a bet against the Commanders under nine and a half wins.
Wevice my clients to make that same bet. You get
plus money right now on under nine and a half
for the Washington. And there's five basic rationales why I
don't like Washington command And again it's not like I
hate this team. I think they were a five hundred
level team. I expect them to win eight or nine games.
They are not expecting to win ten or more, which
is what they need to do to go over nine
and a half. So it starts with last year, all right.
Then this team went from four to thirteen to twelve
and five last year, and then that included five straight
winscho out of the regular season, a couple wins in the postseason.
We look at their strength of schedule, the opposing quarterbacks,
the opposing team that they faced, every one of those
wins down the stretch came against a backupper third string
quarterback for a full season. My numbers, I don't use
the mainstream numbers. I use my power rating on the
week the game was played, and based on my powering
number the week the game was played. Last year, the
Washington Commanders played the single easiest schedule in the NFL,
and when you look at what they did down the stretch,
you gonna understand why they got that. So, yes, they
were a good team last year, but a we expect
regression from a team that goes from four to thirteen
to twelve and five one season, natural aggression. That's part one,
part two. Last year they faced the easiest schedule in
the NFL period based on my numbers, This year they
do not face the easiest schedule in the NFL, and
they have all kinds of rest differential problems. They plays
an NFL high three teams coming off of bye, they
face two other teams coming off many by They won't
have the rest edge this year the way they did
a season ago. Something else happened last year that really
stands out that is not going to repeat in twenty
twenty five. Washington on fourth downs, and there's no more
important play than fourth downs when it comes to winning
or losing. When it comes to high leverage plays, fourth
downs matter more than any other, and Washington won twenty
of twenty three on fourth downs last year. Off the
charts unheard of good. Literally, no team's ever had a
better ever with that many conversions. Shouldn't say ever, because
all we have is this century data for fourth But
I don't think anyone was going for four downs in
the nineties and the eighties and the seventies the way
Washington last year. So twenty to twenty three on fourth downs,
we expect some regression in that particulars Tisco category. Last,
but not least, look at the rosters. Washington is the
single oldest team in the NFL. It's not close. All
they did this offseason. Let's sign old guys, let's sign
veteran guys. We like teams that are a little bit
younger than Washington when it comes to full season numbers,
not guys who have already been paid and are on
the wrong side of thirty. So commanders under nine and
a half wins. It's a bet for me, it's a
bet for the clients, and I'm happy to give it
to you here. If you're watching wait your talk, last call.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that you're fading the public there because
I know that people are going to be on them.
And then somewhat Titan CT said, I see you like
the Raiders versus the Pats Week one, could you do
a big game breakdown.
Speaker 4: Let's absolutely do a big game for breakdown for the
Raiders and the Pats. But before I get into it again,
that promo code NFL one hundred is gonna get you
a one hundred bucks off my NFL season pass and
you'll get my season win report absolutely free. You get everything,
but I've already released Season Wins obviously, you'll get part
two of that report. You get the entire preseason, the
regular season, everything through the Super Bowl. NFL one hundred
at checkout will give you a hundred bucks off and
you get the win report absolutely free. I've already released
a couple of plays four Week one. The only reason
to bet Week one games right now is if you
think the line's gonna move and this one. There are
two and a half's out there, there are threes out there.
I'm like, let's lock in a three right now with
the Raiders plus three at New England. And there's two
basic components to this. First, Patriots can't be laying. They
can't be laying again. If you're laying three, they have
to win by more than a field goal. They gotta
win by four points or more in order for you
to cast that bet. And the Patriots aren't that team yet.
I understand they're supposed to be better this year. I
expect they will be better this year, but they weren't
favored in any games last year. The year before that,
I think they covered one in five tries. Mike Vrabel's
not a favorite. Head coach Mike Vrabels covered one in
his last five tries. When is worried about winning this game,
not winning it by margin, And again, three points can
be a mountain between two even teams, which this is
the Raiders are. Certainly their schedule is tougher than New Englands.
That's why their win total is lower, not because they're
a power rating is a whole big different. And everything
that the Raiders did this offseason, not to win a
Super Bowl and not bottoming out, it's let's be competitive,
let's not be bottom feeders. Whether it comes to Pete Carroll,
whether it comes to Gino Smith, whether it comes to
the free agent signings. A bunch of free agent signings
on defense that are win now type of moves or
slight upgrade now type of moves. I think they're competitive.
You talk about Week one early start games, well that's
when they running Star game. Don't matter. Teams aren't in
their regular season rhythm, and if they play at ten
am Pacific time, it's no big deal. I think it's
a tight game. I think it's a field goal game
at most. I think the Raiders are live to win.
And I took the three with l V and I'd
advise my clients to make that same bet.
Speaker 1: Wow, listen, Week one. I will never forget Last year,
everyone and their mother was on the Bengals. Everyone in
Survivor was on the Bengals, and I said, guys, I
like the Pats, so it's funny Week one Now I'm
gonna be fade in the Pats. But they the Pats
made me so happy last year in Week one with
the upset, I took the plus six in the half
and I also had them on the money line, and
I was super pumped, and everyone was like, what, that's
so stupid. Just because people are low on teams, it's
the best time to go grab them on Week one
while the other team with the Pats coming in feeling high,
looking at the chat, seeing if anyone else has anything
else for the NFL. Teddy, who do you like to
win the super Bowl? Chris Dagan asked, I'd.
Speaker 4: Never make that bet. Of all the bets to make,
all right, literally, of all the bets to make, that
might be this. I'm not gonna call anyone dumb. It
is not a profitable bet, all right, Not short term,
not long term. If you want to have a ticket
and say I got the super Bowl winner and you
can brag to your friends, bet all thirty two teams
and do that. Literally, but odds to win the super Bowl.
One team's gonna win, thirty one is gonna lose in July.
It's there's twenty teams that can win the super Bowl
that I can make a realistic case for winning Super Bowl.
And you don't even get twenty to one on half
of those teams. So it's not a bet that I make.
I bet season wins. Season wins is a betable, a
beatable market odds when the Super Bowl is not.
Speaker 1: Sorry, Betty, how do you tell people to approach betting
NFL futures when there's so much uncertainty going into training camp,
especially when it comes to injuries.
Speaker 4: So sometimes you end up on the wrong side of
injury luck. Sometimes you end up on the right side
of injury luck. All right, plain and simple. One of
the things that I do in my handicapping for the
season win report. Depth is a huge factor. Sat a
five percent big ticket on the under last year because
they had absolutely no quality depth and it took two
weeks for the team to get real with injuries and
that was that. You know, they two great weeks and
the rest of the season they were bottom feeders. So
I pay a lot of attention to quality depth. And
I'm not betting over as on teams but don't have any,
and I'm not betting unders on teams that have a ton.
So I guess that's the way I answer that question.
Is this part of my handicap, and injuries are gonna happen.
They can happen in August, that could happen in September,
they can happen in December. It doesn't matter. They're gonna happen.
You have to plan for injuries with your season long
bets and my handicapping. I think does that.
Speaker 1: One more question from Sean Michael, he asked Bears under
eight and a half.
Speaker 4: So the NFC North is a really good division, all right,
it really is. I like the Bears, I like the Lions,
I like the Vikings, I like the Pack. I could
see all four of those teams making the playoffs. And
obviously the team that gets hurt is the one that's
gonna the injuries are gonna be the one that the
rails one of those team seasons. But I'm not looking
to fade Chicago. We believe in the new coach, we
believe in the quarterback. That's a good football team. The
offseason moves that they made win now, moves, not win
two three years from now. The offensive line should be
a whole lot better, the defensive line should be a
whole lot better. On paper, Chicago's a team that can
contend for the playoffs. So under eight and a half there,
it didn't make my card. And again, I don't know
if the Bears look pretty good. I think they're not
a team I'm looking to fade right now. Of the
four NFC WET North teams, the one I was most
interested in a season win over was the Minnesota. I
got a little bit priced out of that market, so
Chicago wasn't really on that list, but I'm not looking
to fade the Bears. All four of those teams have
bet on potential.
Speaker 1: Roger Long asked, do you expect Kansas City to bounce
back after losing in the Super Bowl?
Speaker 4: So Casey under eleven and a half was on my season,
was on my short list. You know, again, my short
list is half the league. But you know, those are
the teams when I'm going through my research. You know,
I started all right, hey, this team looks pretty good.
I put him on the over the short list. This
team looks pretty shitty, Let's put him on the under
short list. And you go through division by division and
you end up with you know, I think it was fifteen.
The thirty two teams were on one of the two lists,
which means the seventeen teams I thought were priced correctly
and fifteen teams there was some value perhaps to go
against from a season win standpoint. And the Chiefs were
one of the teams that I went that I had
on the underlist, and I started look at Andy. I mean,
I was familiar with Andy's track record. Do you know
how many unders Andy Reid as cash as a head
coach in County, Philadelphia and Kansas City. Not many, you know,
you can fit them on. I think three fingers, and when.
Speaker 1: They all have to be a little bit psychotic to
be taken unders and fading the Chiefs, so at.
Speaker 4: Some point they don't.
Speaker 1: This is the season on the Chiefs having a problem
this year, I exactly is in the division. I think
everyone's high on Denver. No one's talking about the Chargers,
who have given the Chiefs a run for their money
ever since Justin Herbert's come in. Harball is a great
head coach, and the Chiefs they're getting older, and at
some point there's got to be a regression and most
Super Bowl runner up Steady do end up going under
their win total the next.
Speaker 4: Year, all of which points towards Kate. I don't agree,
disagree with anything of that. You know, yes, Casey's ready
for some regression. Yes, super Bowl losers are supposed to
lose more. You know, they're supposed to have a down
year the following season. Although last time Casey lost Super
Bowl they did not.
Speaker 1: And they're pretty much the anomalies exactly.
Speaker 4: And that's and and again. Andy Reid's track record as
a head coach you can go back to a tenure
in Philadelphia. It's extra ordinary when it comes to season
win totals. And when you look at case again, the
case to be made for them for regression is, well,
they lost the Super Bowl. It's not their personnel as
week last year.
Speaker 1: To be honest, they were the ugly Brady teams.
Speaker 4: Yes, but last year they didn't have a single healthy receiver.
All right. That receiving corps this year is elite if
guys are healthy, all right. Mahomes has weapons they didn't
have a year ago. The oppositive line last year had
some issues this year in theory, and we don't know.
I want to watch this. This is an offsitive line, and
I want to see in August. I do you know,
they're a handful of teams. I'm really interested in taking
a look but u and watching preseason games and seeing
what it feels like, you know, in terms of their
past protector and the like. But this offensive line had
issues last year. They made a bunch of changes this offseason.
I would expect the ol to be a little bit
better in that regard. So with weapons and with protection,
the defense isn't you know, is every bit as good
and Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the world. Uh,
So it's not. It's not. It's not a slam dunk
betting against Casey under the lean was there. Maybe it's
on the second report, part two of the win report,
but it did not make Part one.
Speaker 1: Titans CT asked any thoughts on the Dolphins.
Speaker 4: So everyone seems to be really down on Miami right now.
I'm not. I think they are priced appropriately. I think
they're an eight or nine win team, which is exactly
where they're priced. And I believe in McDaniel as a
head coach. I believe in Two as a quarterback very
much so, both of those guys.
Speaker 1: So I'm sorry you believe in two as staying on
the field. That has to go into the handicap.
Speaker 4: It absolutely has to go on the handicap. And I'm
not gonna call Two a that much more injury riddle
than any other quarterback. You know. Uh, He's played behind
a really crappy offensive line and that looks to be
an issue again this year potentially. And he's a littler guy, obviously,
he's not huge. But I think Miami is lying. I
think they're an eight or nine win team. I think
they're lined appropriately. I'm not seeing again the teams that
you want to jump on that Wow, this team's priced
way off. Miami's not that team. I think they're mediocre.
Speaker 1: I think our on Johnny, Detroit wants to know what
you think about the Lions.
Speaker 4: So there's enormous urgency for the Detroit Lions this year.
All right, next year is where all the salary cap
stuff's gonna hit. So Detroit has a window of this
year before they have to start genising some of their talent,
and that roster is as talented as any in football.
Detroit is live to win the NFC, go to the
big game, et cetera, et cetera. My biggest concern about
the Lions is their coordinators. We saw it with Philadelphia.
Both coordinators left. The Eagles took a step back the
following year until last year when they went back up.
It could well be that situation for Detroit. We're not
talking about two media recordage. You know, Glenn and Johnson
were instrumental in their success on the defensive NOTTSI side
of the football, respectively, and I think losing those two
guys matters for the Lions. But what's the upside for
this team. The upside is super Bowl, super Bowl winner.
That's the type of roster Detroit has. They're capable, but
will they get there? I mean, if you're a Lions fan,
you know it's been a while, namely forever, and I
do worry about the coaching changes for Detroit off the
season that was extraordinarily successful in every way but one.
Speaker 1: Lions. The time has coming. All right, we've got to
get to Major League baseball. Teddy, what are you promoting today?
Speaker 4: Wins Man? Get it now again. It's one ninety nine
for the season win Report, or you can get it
for free if you buy my full NFL season get
every play every day from the first game of the
preseason right through the stuper Bowl promo code NFL one hundred.
At checkout, we'll get you one hundred dollars off, and
of course we will be in action in Major League
Baseball later. Haven't put up anything yet to put I'll
expect the post shortly at Drank get.
Speaker 1: Off their Teddy covers. Happy Fourth of July weekend. Thank
you as always for coming on and giving us those
insights into the NFL. For everybody that wants to get
involved in the NFL because you are itching for the season.
You all know if you follow me, that I love
major League Baseball. I love it as much as the NFL.
I don't know which one to choose. Major League Baseball season.
It's here, We're approaching the All Star break. We've still
got a couple of weeks left, so we're gonna bring
on our final guest of the day. We are going
to talk major League Baseball with Steve Merrill. Steve Happy.
Fourth of July weekend.
Speaker 5: Damn straight era, it's the fourth of July weekend. It
is still going. I'll even flash you.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna fly shot so again with the past.
Speaker 1: Yeah, everyone loves the shot.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I had to give you the crutch shot because
I know you love the crutch shot. Nothing says America
like got.
Speaker 1: Loves it chat. That's what they That's what they tuned
in for me.
Speaker 4: I'll tell you.
Speaker 5: It's July fifth, It's officially the start of our two
hundred and fiftieth year.
Speaker 1: If you think about it, said to take it at
plus one ten that was actually.
Speaker 5: Oh wow, wow.
Speaker 1: I would have taken that action on a plus one.
Speaker 5: I can't I can't say if I was involved or not,
because the Cleveland Guardians might suspend me from my next start.
So I won't say anything about that if I was
in on that bet or not.
Speaker 1: Hey, the difference between you and Luis Ortiz is that
you're allowed to gamble and he is not Steve. So
everyone in the chat, you know, fire it up all
the questions. I know that we did have one earlier. Dan,
if you see it, let me know. I remember someone
asked a baseball question already. There we go, NAT's game
over ten runs, anywhord on it.
Speaker 5: So my Washington Nationals a little bit of a blowout
loss yesterday. I was at that game a year ago,
July fourth, they played them. That's last year in the
eleven I.
Speaker 1: Did actually also do Fourth of July game for at
NAT's Park.
Speaker 5: It was really cool, did you It was at the
eleven the early start at the eleven AM. Because I've
done that for a while, I think it is pretty cool.
Speaker 1: It was a blast. It was a really cool bucket
list thing that I didn't even realize was something I
wanted to do bucket list until it worked out.
Speaker 5: Well, you have to let me know whenever you're going
to the Nats game, because I'm only a couple hours away,
and I usually hit a few every year.
Speaker 1: So it was a long time ago. I wasn't allowed
to gamble yet.
Speaker 5: You weren't allowed to camp. The MGM sportsbook wasn't right
at the entrance to the gate like it is now.
Speaker 1: I mean no, this had to have been when I
was in I used to travel to a different baseball
stadium every summer with my grandparents. Awesome, So I went
to NAT's one year. I must have been a junior
in high school.
Speaker 5: And they were Baltimore or at least I know your
grandparents were Ravens fans, right, So my dad's.
Speaker 1: Side, this was my mom's side. My mom's side is
the Yankees fans.
Speaker 5: I got my Camaro toad in high school from Camden Park.
That's a story we'll tell on another show. That is
a great story. By the way, the tow truck brought
the car back, but that's a story for a different show.
Speaker 4: When we have more time.
Speaker 5: Remind me sometime or we're running when we need filler time,
and I'll tell the Camden Yards tow truck story. Two
good looking high school girls suckered me into a parking lot.
It almost cost me my car. That's a true story.
That's a teaser there for the next episode. Yeah, the
Nets games get up, you get up at like two o'clock,
you hang out, you get fireworks later. I believe they
beat the Nets last year. They were not so fortunate yesterday.
But yeah, look their pitching staff got rocked yesterday. Obviously,
the Tigers have been good offensive for him here in
recent weeks as well. We'll see if things happen with
the Red Sox rather Tigers played them right before that.
I always like to play the highest totals over and
this one is one of the highest totals on the
board at ten, so they'd be over a pass from
me in that Nets in Red Sox game at four
o'clock Eastern.
Speaker 1: We've also got Richard Lockhart who says he likes the
Marlins money line.
Speaker 5: That's there, Marlin's money line. Marlin's always a tough team
to back, but you know, they have played a little
bit better reef the Brewers though. It's funny. I was
watching the Brewers earlier this week. I was thinking how
every year they're a consistent good team, they just absolutely
do nothing come postseason, and you get that feel again here.
I probably would not look to be Fadie Milwaukee in
this one. I feel that the better squad two mediocre
pitchers on the mound. Over eight and a half might
be in play here. Nine is such a key number
in Major League Baseball that whenever we have an over
eight and a half, I'm always kind of looking for
a reason for an over. I don't think either pitcher
is anything special in this one.
Speaker 1: It is sho heey O Tani's birthday today and he's
on the mound of the Los Angeles Dodgers taking on
the Houston Astros. The Astros ended up crushing the Dodgers
yesterday eighteen to one. Great pitching matchup with from Bravaldez
on the mound against Otani, and he thought on the Dodgers.
Speaker 5: Well, I do think the blowout loss is interesting because
the bullpen was taxed a little bit more than normal,
and you do wonder about how much they're going to
let a Tani go in these games. They are going
to be extra cautions with every single time he's on
the mound, and for good reason. He's such an incredible hitter.
You can't risk any kind of injury and he's pitching
Obviously he's been limited the past few seasons, didn't pitch
at all last year, so that brings a little bit
of an uncertain element to this game. I will say
this about the Astros though. Their offense obviously good yesterday
eighteen runs. That was on twenty hits, But keep in
mind they've put up five runs or more in four
straight games. They put up seventeen runs in the previous
three games, and they did so on thirty seven hits.
So they now have fifty seven hits and they have
what is it like, forty five runs the last four games.
Over makes a lot of sense here, but once again,
it's just a very difficult handicap from me. With Otani,
I just don't know what we're gonna get from him.
Maybe a bit bounce back spot for the Dodgers. They
had won four straight before that loss, but their offense
seven hits are less than for their last five games,
so be a little careful. The Dodgers maybe not in
as excellent current form as everybody thinks. I'd probably lean
Astros here in this one, just due to that offensive
momentum they have right now.
Speaker 1: That's some other questions. Take it from a lifelong Hubs
Ben when the rig Ley totals double digits, it's an
I love to see it. The wind is blowing out,
but like likely I think I saw Steve any thoughts
on the Rocks minus one sixteen from Titan c T.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean the only thought on the Rocks are
we fade them or we passing on the game? But
oh no, they're playing the White Sox. One thing about
the White Sox, th Ara, I like to look at
one run losses, especially as we get later in the season,
and the White Sox have been very unfortunate in one
run games. When I checked about a week ago, they
were five and twenty this year in games decided by
one run. Now, granted, bad teams are gonna lose more
close games bad bullpens, but the White Sox bullpen actually
is not terrible. It's pretty much mediocre, a middle of
the pack statistically. So do I dare say the White
Sox could be a slight play on team here in
the near future. The Rockies are definitely not a play
on team for me. And whenever a bad team in
baseball is favorite, you know, we always say we don't
play bad favorites. It actually works in Baseball, And granted,
the Rockies are about a dollar fifteen favorite here, but
I'm gonna buck that and go with the White Sox here.
I think they're the better team overall. Not two teams
I've used probably in all this season, but if I
had to play one of.
Speaker 4: Them, I'd rather get plus money with Chicago.
Speaker 1: Do you find value with mid bubble teams that played
gritty like the Marlins Angels on a daily basis.
Speaker 5: I mean, it's so early in the season. I guess
we're saying bubble as far as playoffs, but I don't
think we can read too much into that world. About
little over halfway through the season, we got about seventy
games to go. Still, as I mentioned earlier, look at
current form, you know, the Betty Markets price starting pitchers
heavily still even mainly only got about five or six innings.
But the offensive players, for the most part, you know,
seven to eight nine of them are in the lineup
every day, so you're geting about eighty percent of the
same lineup every day, and that offensive momentum really does
ev and flow over five and ten game cycles. And
you can really just look at something as simple as hits,
you know, I mentioned how hot the Astros have been.
They were hot before last night and they broke out again. Meanwhile,
some other teams, like the Indians, the Guardians who have
lost eight straight nine of their last ten. Their offenses
really struggled over the past few weeks. Looks like it
might be turning the corner. Try to catch teams are
starting to heat up. Maybe teams have been hot for
a couple of games that Betty markets haven't caught onto
because the overall seasonal numbers dictate. These stats dictate the
lines now after eighty ninety games, including the starting pitcher numbers.
So I think offensive momentum is something that can help
you find winners on a daily basis.
Speaker 1: Royal scored nine yesterday, juicy, but team total under four
and a half looks tempting. According to Andrew Now.
Speaker 5: I'd like the Royals team total over today. Actually, I'm
going to do a free play video for this game
after we get off here with our man Dan. Alexander
and I are going to produce a duo double videos,
So be sure to check out wager Talk TV this
afternoon for some free play videos. But one day it
jumped out to me I was watching some of that
Kansas City game last night. I was on MLB Network
and the Royals had what was at six runs on
seven hits in the third inning already, And that is
something that kind of made my short list for today. Hey,
good offensive current form, like we talk about, and keep
in mind, Kansas City really struggled offensively middle of June
on into July. Are they maybe turning the corner? They've
had ten hits from weren't two of their last four games,
And you know, I think maybe that offensive momentumums started
to turn. This is a team that had gone under
sixth straight and like eight out of eleven until last
night and they won nine to three. Maybe that's the
by sign with the Royals here over the next couple
of weeks.
Speaker 1: Seattle Pirates under Phillies first five under thoughts.
Speaker 5: Phillies are always a tough team because offensively kick yeah,
I mean they're capable of getting hot at any point.
I'd actually probably clean Mariner's side in that game. That's
the other video I'm gonna do here, so I'll have
a deep dive into that game. So the video I'm
doing is that Pirates Seattle game and also that Kansas
City game that we just talked about against Arizona, so
I'll have a deep dive there. We'll look a little
bit at this Phillies game against the Reds. Reds have
been a good team this year betting wise, definitely flying
a little bit under the raider. I haven't used them
quite as much as I probably should have. And as
far as the current form of these two teams, we
look at Cincinnati twenty three hits, seventeen runs the last
two games, Boston. Now at Philly, they've won two straight.
They've won three of their last five. Phillies meanwhile, being
kind of alternating wins and losses for the last several weeks.
They had that run against Houston, those three games at
Houston where they scored one total run. Then they go
to Atlanta they score thirteen on seventeen hits, and then
they score two or less than the next two games.
So once again, that's why I'm talking about current form. Offensively,
you don't just look at one game, because any pitcher
can have a bad out. You kind of want to
look at a three, like five game sample. It does
look like Philly is starting to trend up, though they've
had four runs or more now in four straight games,
eleven runs on twenty four hits the last two days.
I kind of like the over in this one. I
think maybe it's the buy side with Philly going forward.
And don't say that too loud, Dan Alexander's going to
get extra excited.
Speaker 1: Sean Michael also has Guardians team total under three and
a half with the offense against miz Do you agree, Yeah.
Speaker 5: I mean I think mis actually might get hit, just
because the current Guardian lineup, the Cleveland lineup today that's
batting has over a career three hundred average against myes.
As I said earlier, Cleveland in terrible current form otherwise
eight straight losses. This is a team that's lost nine
of their last ten games, and it's really coincided with
the offense be nice cold. So the question is are
they starting to turn the corner? I don't know. I mean,
they had four runs a couple of games ago and
they filed it up with one run total last two games.
So it'd be Detroit or passed for me on the side.
Speaker 1: In that one, I think someone asked somewhere if there's
a whole Yeah, Ian Gomez, do you do home run
props at all, I don't like home run props.
Speaker 5: I don't mess a lot with MLB props in general.
One thing, Tokyo Brandon, who's a very good baseball handicappers,
you know, former MLB scout has I've heard him say before, Aaron,
I'm sure you have as well as that he never
plays the home run well, he never plays the Yes
home run props. I guess that's kind of a general question,
but I assume we're talking about will they hit a
home run? And Tokyo says like even the best players
ever like Otani are like what maybe one out of six?
I forget what the math is, and he'll get priced
at well like what three to one, four to one,
And so just the ath alone doesn't work there. And
I'll go back to something Teddy's. I know we don't
have a lot of time, but the NFL wins report
stuff had Teddy was actually about, actually very correct about
NFL futures and why I don't play Super Bowl if
you now over under win totals are not the same
as futures in my opinion, because it's a two way bet.
The problem with most future bets, including like home run props,
is that it's a one way bet. It's a yes
bet at plus money. Will they win the Super Bowl? Yes,
plus four hundred. They don't let you take the no
at minus five hundred. Some sportsbooks do, but most don't,
So as a rule of thumb, unless you're getting a
two way market, you're probably getting screwed pretty bad on
the payout. And the other thing I'll mention too about
season wins in the NFL before I forget, is that
you talked about injuries and those concerns. The under always
helps you, So in general, I always defer to the
under with season wins in any sport because everything's kind
of priced to how it should play out, and if
you get a key injury, especially to a quarterback, it's
going to definitely help the under, whereas if you have
the over, it's obviously going to hurt you a lot more.
Speaker 1: Steve Merrill, he comes on with us most of these Saturdays,
talks great stuff on Major League Well what are you
promoting today?
Speaker 5: I think I might be hosting next week aarro you are.
Speaker 1: You want to assignment next weekend? Then I think someone
else you might be hosting the last weekend of July
because Hurricane Kelly is coming to New York, and I
am not dumb enough to do this show on a
day that Kelly is here. But yes, next weekend it
will be Steve hosting here on Last Call. I have
some family stuff to tend to. But anything else you
got going on, well.
Speaker 5: First of all, I think you and Kelly should host
together that day. That would be fantastic.
Speaker 1: Hammread at Yankee Stadium by the time this show probably starts.
Speaker 5: Then you guys can do it live from Yankee Stadium.
I mean that might break an all time record if
we promote that. Right, you guys could tag each other ring.
Speaker 1: Going live and doing something. I don't know what.
Speaker 5: One does it, the other one rest, the other one
tags the other one back again.
Speaker 1: You know. One takes a shot, the next one does
the show. The next one takes a shot. Yeah, it's
going to be a take a quick nap.
Speaker 5: The other one wakes up, does.
Speaker 1: A segment that she has a forty chance of making
her flight on Sunday she didn't make it last year.
For anyone that's looking to handicap afterwards, I got you Sunday. Yeah,
we go to the game Saturday.
Speaker 5: Got you the way home?
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, chance of making it.
Speaker 5: That's a two way market. So we got a yes. No,
that's a two way market. That's an acceptable bet. Ill
I will take the yes on that she'll make the
damn flight. She's a veteran, she knows how to do
these things. She'll learn.
Speaker 1: Look at you, Yes, I'm gonna put the yes at
plus one twenty.
Speaker 5: I need to know what side you're betting on, because
if you bet to know, you could definitely make sure
that she does not make that flight on Sunday. That's
the kind of inside information.
Speaker 1: We need to have from No, I can't make her
do anything. Unfortunately, last year she laid in my bed
and said, can I just stay one more day? I
don't think I can make it? And I looked at
her and said, that's fine, but I work tomorrow, so
you have to be out the door for the early flight.
And she said, no problem. So listen, she's got to
do what she's got to do. If I can't make
the girl go on, she has a fear of flying.
For a girl that flies all the time, she's a.
Speaker 4: Fear of you.
Speaker 5: Oh, Kelly has a fear of flying.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, it's bad. And I if I let her
get on that flight hungover. I would have been getting
it worse on the texting end. She was better off
just sleeping more.
Speaker 5: Wow, I learned something every day Hurricane Kelly. At first
second there, I was like, how do you know hurricanes
coming in three weeks? Honestly thought there was a Florida
hurricane coming for a second and didn't rose it was
Kelly Stewart, Vegas Las Vegas insider Kelly Stewart. Yeah, I've
got special promotion for everybody seven days for sixty nine
the fourth of July. Celebrate because like Gariel said, it
is the fourth of July weekend. It ain't over till
it's over. Look at all those pretty faces. There's even
a Canadian on there, Andrew McGuinness. We still let you
get sixty nine dollars for seven days with the Canadians
as well. But seriously, any cap you'd like multiple uses
lock in my seven days of MLB action, Get one
of these other guys and get some golf and some hockey,
or there's no hockey soccer soccer without the sticks. Hockey
without the sticks is called soccer. Lots of other sports
going on. He could also make it a seven day
Flex Pass in which you can jump around and do
a different cap for every day. So once again seven
days all access sixty nine. That's an instant thirty percent
discount off the normal rate and there's no promo codead now.
By the way, check out my daily free plays. I
have won six of my last seven free plays which
are last cuts from the best bet cards, so it
kind of pisses me off, but the best bets are
at an over sixty percent this week as well. I
do have a bonus free play in Major League Baseball
for tonight on my page right now Steve Merrill wager
talk dot com, along with two best bets and get
there quicker with shortcut WT dot buzz slash sm.
Speaker 1: Steve Merrill, You're the best. Thanks as always for coming
on here on the last Saturday. Make sure to check
them out next week hosting here on Last Call for
Scott c. In the chat you said about Summer League NBA.
Yanny the Greek came on earlier on the show and
gave out some Summer league sharp action. You could go
back at the beginning of the show. Check out our
YouTube page on wager Talk and you could check out
the beginning of the show here on last Call. Togyo
Brandon is coming up next, so make sure to check
out his show. He'll talk all things major League baseball.
I'm sure for me the prop queenera Epstein, I will
give you one last parting wish. Dan and I are
on the East in Premier Lacrosse starting at one pm
Eastern time, they're All Star game. We also like the
over because well, first off with the East, the West
very banged up and their goalie he's out, so that's
a big problem. Which is also why we are going
to go with the over. Because Atlanta twenty seven last year,
which was obviously low, and you're seeing this total go
from thirty three and a half to thirty four and
a half last year. This is an overreaction to it.
The last three years before last season, forty plus were
scored in the Premier Lacrosse All Star Game that's coming
up at one pm. You could go bet that as well.
Major League Baseball logan Web under twenty and a half outs.
This number is way too high for a team averaging
eighteen outs when any kind of righty faces. The Athletics
Web had eight inings that he went last start against
the a's. I never liked to bet the same thing
that happened twice. He's projected Web to go about eighteen outs,
so I would take the underhear of twenty and a
half outs for Logan Web on the road. Nonetheless, way
too much of an overreaction. If you got Carlos Radon
under six and a half k's in at the start
of the show, congratulations that number is now down to
five and a half everywhere else. So I did a
nice little SGP which you could check out on my
picket sports page at Ariel Epstein. I did a SGP
for the Subway series because of what Yanni said. Actually,
so I included something Yanni gave out to something that
I liked today in the props market and combining the
two for a plus one forty ish payout. So we'll
see or plus one eighty plus one forty. I have
to go double check that anyway, all my players for
today on picket Sports or the prop Queen dot com newsletter,
I gave out a bunch of props there. Gonn to
dive into a little WNBA as well, but I got
some Major League Baseball out there.
Speaker 4: Of course.
Speaker 1: Last Call Saturday you guys are awesome. Everyone who tuned
into the chat like, subscribe, comment, everything of the above.
Dan behind the scenes, always crushing it. We absolutely love you.
Speaker 4: I know.
Speaker 1: He just planned his honeymoon to Hawaii, so when he's gone,
remind me to take a vacation because I hate anything
without Dan. Just kidding. Uh, thank you guys for tuning in.
We will see you next week. Steve Merrell is gonna
be hosting, and then I'll be back the week after that.
Good luck with your rests today. M hm hmm.