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Speaker 1: Your happy Saturday. Welcome to last call here on Wager Talk.

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I'm the prop Queen Area Epstein, filling in for Kelly

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and Vegas all summer long, including holiday weekends. You're welcome

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Kelly in Vegas. We had a great Fourth of July yesterday.

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It was beautiful in New York. According to Kelly, it

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was horrible in Florida. So that's hilarious. Joey Chestnutt goes

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under his seventy one and a half seventy and a

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half total hot dogs eat in the public prevailed. Shout

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out to the pub today. We've got a loaded show

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Yanni the Greek and to come on and talk to

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us about everything you need to know. Behind the counter,

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we do have football in July. Yeah, we are talking

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to CFL and Andrew mckinnis from Canada going to answer

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all your questions. Teddy Covers he's promoting actually the American NFL,

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where we're going to talk all things NFL wins, totals.

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Get you've started, because it's kind of like the start

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of football season. When the Fourth of July is over,

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it's time to crunch those numbers and go look at

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those NFL futures. Last, certainly not least. We've got Major

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League Baseball questions with Steve Merrill. I've got a few

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MLB plays myself. Don't forget too if you like to

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bet these Niche Markets Premier Lacrosse All Star Game is

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starting at one pm Eastern time. We've got plays for that.

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Dan and I, Kelly, we are all on the same

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page for how to play it. If you want some

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one pm action. I know there's a lot of day baseball,

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so let's start with the one, the only, the Vegas Runner,

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the Yanni, the Greek lebrom Las Vegas. I think we

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never know if he's traveling or not. Yeah, he's in Vegas,

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wearing another Phillies hat. He changes colors of Phillies hats

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every week. What's up, Yanni?

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Speaker 2: All right?

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Speaker 3: I just bet if you could believe this three NBA

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Summer League games as where as you were talking, I

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swear to you. I just sent three to subscribers. I'll

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give one out here, I'll give one out.

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Speaker 4: I'll give two of them. I'll give you out of three.

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Speaker 1: Is this starting now today?

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Speaker 4: I believe.

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Speaker 3: So it's got to be starting today, got to be

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sporting today. So here I'm going to give you two

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out of the three that I send subscribers because aeriels

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looking nice and happy, ready to go make you guys

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some money today.

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Speaker 4: So I'm gonna give you two out of the three.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna give you five fifty four Golden State plus

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five and a half. They're good at plus five Golden

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State plus five or better, five point fifty five Memphis

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Memphis minus two or better. We laid one and a

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half and we laid minus two. You don't want to

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go above two in it, you're better off laye the

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minus one twenty to buy and a half a point.

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If it goes to two and a half, it's worth

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about twelve cents. You only got to pay ten cents,

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so it's worth to buy at two two and a half.

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I'll just give all three. Why not, subscribers already got them,

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They already bet them. They got the best numbers. Hopefully

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it's still available for you guys as well. And finally,

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five twenty two Miami minus five. So you just got

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three premium plays that I just sent to subscribers minutes ago.

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You got Golden State Warriors plus five and a half.

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You got Memphis minus the two and you got Miami

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minus the five Golden State Memphis in Miami. That was

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the worth the price of admission alone. Just close the

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show off. Now you're good.

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Speaker 2: You're good.

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Speaker 1: That's hilarious. I didn't even realize that we were starting yet.

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And of course I'm on the New Jersey Book right now.

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I don't even see anything on FanDuel. Maybe DraftKings will

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have it. I'll have to go scoping around for some

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of those plays. But Summer League is a real deal.

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I know so many people that love to get action

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down on it, just like Yanni does on spring training,

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like only the best of the best get it down

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on this crazy slits of games. Yanni, anything that you

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see in Major League Baseball today.

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Speaker 3: All right, here's what we got in baseball. Let me

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set y'all yesterday yesterday, five minutes, five minutes before the

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games went before first pitch for three series. We bet

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three series. I couldn't even release these two subscribers because

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the cutoff at wager Talk. We do it ten minutes

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with my guys. Because a lot of my stuff is

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time sensitive. I get a lot of good late information

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and I got to give them at least that ten

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minute cutoff. I wish we had a five minute cut off.

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They probably get even more stuff because a lot of

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the biggest stuff comes very late. Would be surprised how

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late some of the biggest positions come. I mean, I've

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seen some of the biggest bets in MMA happen when

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both guys are in the cage, and even some of

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the books have taken down the number. But again, you know,

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you have to have a cutof because better's got to

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be able to get to play and fire. And we

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bet three series yesterday.

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Speaker 4: All three of them are dogs.

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Speaker 3: We bet Athletics in their series at plus one fifty.

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We bet the White Sox in their series at plus

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one oh five, and we bet Tampa Bay in their

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series at plus one twenty. Now, Athletics won last night,

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White Sox won last night. So both of those dogs

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are up one nothing in their series.

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Speaker 5: So far, so good.

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Speaker 3: We got to win one at the next two games.

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Tampa is down one, so Tampa's got to win the

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next two games. They got to win today and tomorrow

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for that series. Bet to win for Athletics. In the

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White Sox, we just got to win one out of

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the next two games for those series. Bet to win.

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So just keep that in mind as you're handicapping today's

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baseball and tomorrow's baseball. That Athletics White Sox in Tenampa,

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we're all bet to win their three game series this weekend. Now,

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some of the bets that came in today in Major

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League Baseball already nine oh two Cubs up to minus

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one thirty nine, ten Toronto good to minus one eighty

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nine to twelve, Cleveland plus one twenty. Everybody's on Detroit,

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sharups on Cleveland there nine thirteen, Atlanta minus one thirty

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nine to twenty nine, Pittsburgh plus one sixty and two

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totals for you over eight and a half up to

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minus one thirty so they don't have to go over nine.

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That's Detroit, Cleveland, and the same thing Cincinnati Philly over

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eight and a half good the minus one thirty rather

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than having to go over nine even at a minus

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one oh five price over eight and a half Cincinnati Philly.

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So that's Cubs, Toronto, Cleveland, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh, and then

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over Cincinnati over in Detroit both at eight and a half.

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You got the series bets, you got NBA Summer League,

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you are ready to make some money on this beautiful

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Saturday morning.

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Speaker 1: I love the over in the Cincinnati game because ever

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since Nicolodola screwed me over on two different strikeout props

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to start my season, I will fade Nicko Lodolo at

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every time time, so over in the Cincinnati game because

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Nicolodolo whatever, give up all the runs in the world.

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If you guys also have questions in the chat, make

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sure to ask them because apinly we love the interaction.

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Make sure to like subscribe everything on wager Talk here

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on Lat's call, and make sure to comment because we

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are always answering your questions. Yanni's one for you.

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Speaker 3: You're gonna like right now, just popped in Yankees Yankees

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first five only, not game Yankees first five.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, the bulletens.

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Speaker 3: Just so that's definitely a starting picture bet because if

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you look at the game line.

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Speaker 1: So they like I went to this little thing. Rodon

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just came off of. I'm pretty sure Rodon just came

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off of one of his worst starts of the season,

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which wasn't surprising. And Frankie mont is so so uh no,

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he gave up two runs were done in Toronto. But

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aside for that he's had it somewhat decent season, so again,

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put up.

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Speaker 3: Runs for him.

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Speaker 4: Like he's lost. They've lost four of the.

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Speaker 3: Last five games he's pitched, and in only one of

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those games did he give up more than three earned runs.

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You know what I mean, He's given him five or

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six innings every time.

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Speaker 1: Arya it's not full game. It's Yankees first five is

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the play?

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Speaker 4: Yep? Yep?

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Speaker 1: The Yankees last yesterday, just I mean, losing that game

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was absolutely absurd. But Aaron Judge should have a good

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game today. I actually like his over what did I

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give out it given on the newsletter, I think it's

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one and a half. Let me just double check the

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exact play that I said in the newsletter. It was

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the over one and a half total base Nope, hits

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runs in RBI minus one oh five. Great market for props,

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by the way, is the hits runs in RBI market,

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So over one and a half. He's gone over it

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in three games that he's played at the field, all

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of them, and he's also gone over in seven of

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his last ten road games. So something to just look

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at for Aaron Judge today and if he does well,

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usually the Yankees too well. Janni. We've got WNBA action

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tonight too. Two different games on the slate anything in the.

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Speaker 3: W Minnesota and on their Minnesota and on there. I

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saw Minnesota at any nine's. I saw nine get picked

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off on Minnesota and wait is that Minnesota? Oh yeah,

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I'm seeing Summerly, I'm like, wait, where did that go?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Minnesota, any nine's got picked off and under the under.

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Speaker 4: Moved a little bit. You could still probably.

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Speaker 3: Find fifty five and a half fifty five. I wouldn't

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go lower than that because they started bet they stopped

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at like one fifty six and a half fifty six

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now I've even seeing fifty four and a half's out there,

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But if you could have any road, fifty five fifty

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five and a.

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Speaker 4: Halves are better.

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Speaker 3: I think the younger's good there. And Minnesota minus the

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nine that probably would get to ten before tidball, but

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not nothing really big, nothing really big sticking out.

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Speaker 1: Kashawn Michael asked if you like the Star plus five

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and a half against the Fever.

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Speaker 3: Sparks plus the five and a half. No, I don't really.

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I don't have an opinion on that game at all.

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What I can tell them is that a decent two

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way action from the betting public. That's why that line

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has it. It moved off the opener of six and

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a half like seven actually, so you saw some short

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money take the plus so you're on the side of

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the sharper betters. But they took the opener at like

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plus seven when it went to like five and a

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half or even six is out there. They weren't really

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the guys picking them off. I think it's even some

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public money that are on the sparks today. So the

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books will definitely lean want Indiana because it seems like

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sharp betters that took the seven, and then the recreational

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betters are taking the six and the five and a

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halfs even so it's kind of like the books versus

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the betters in that game. So you're on the sharp

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side if you're on Indiana, I mean on LA. But

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definitely one sided action, both public and sharps on the

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same side.

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Speaker 1: And no UFC right, No, no UFC right. UFC July twelve,

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So we do have soccer and Wimbledon to sports that

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aren't getting probably much attention from the public here in America. However,

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I know soccer is always huge internationally and then Wimbledon too.

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There's a lot of places to find edges. I know

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that Pam Maldonado came on the prop Queen Pod went

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to and oo in her plays. Have you guys been

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getting any action on any of that stuff?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we didn't in the first round, like the first day,

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second day, we fired, we lost, we lost. We got

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three dogs. All three dogs didn't get the money. I

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think at least one for subscribers, maybe two. But it

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hasn't been one of those tournaments where they had a

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lot of matchups. And again, you know, I tell you

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when I win, I tell you when I lose. I

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let you know when these guys are running hot when

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they're not running hot. Tennis has been one of those

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sports where primary historically has been money. I love when

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I see tennis plays, but so far nothing has has

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been doing really well in Wimbledon. And the only play

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I saw today in the account so far was it's

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an early game, probably go. I think it goes off

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in like ten minutes. It's marin cilic, silicall I see.

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Speaker 4: Over moonar, over Moonar.

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Speaker 3: They laid like minus one sixty five and minus one

240
00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:16,600
seventy on the favorite thing.

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Speaker 1: Chill has just had the major upset in the last round,

242
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so it makes sense to be fading him this time around.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, eighty two one, so that I know.

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Speaker 1: That a USA is playing Mexico in the CONCACAF Gold Cup,

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and you've got USA at plus one oh eight slite

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00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:34,240
dog to Mexico minus one twenty six to lift the cup.

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There's also the tie at two to one, so any

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action there on USA Mexico's and so I'm sure USA

249
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will be publicly bet here.

250
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Speaker 3: That's what happened that that you nailed it. You didn't

251
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even have to look. There's like very very low volume.

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Like I said, the book I'm looking at right now,

253
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they probably have about fourteen hundred public accounts. Not many

254
00:11:54,919 --> 00:11:56,320
of them will be bet in this game. But the

255
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like six betters that did, they all have the US.

256
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They all have the U. So yeah, you can't blame

257
00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:04,679
they're they're you know, cheering them in, cheering them in for.

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Speaker 4: Fourth of July weekend.

259
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Speaker 1: Well, I guess for America they think that the USA

260
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will come through. Yanni, what are you promoting today?

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Speaker 5: Baseball? Baseball?

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00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:18,159
Speaker 3: Baseball, baseball.

263
00:12:18,399 --> 00:12:20,440
Speaker 4: I'll have two at least two.

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Speaker 3: Four percent plays in there for you. In the baseball

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I already gave out the three NBA plays. Hopefully we

266
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get some more Summer League. Historically those have done really good.

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I love those smaller markets, but just not a lot

268
00:12:33,759 --> 00:12:35,759
of time, like if they're time sensitive plays, so you

269
00:12:35,799 --> 00:12:38,000
have to fire. You can't wait too long because there's

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just not enough volume from recreational betters to offset the

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sharp action. And because that books are forced to move

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that line pretty quickly, so you got to be quick

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and have your outs ready to go. But those usually

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do well, So hoping to get that. I won't have

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a package up because I already gave them to you

276
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guys for free. And here's what else I'll do any

277
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else any other summer league that comes in today, it'll

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be on my page for free. So over the next

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two three hours while I'm still working this morning, stuff

280
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and there's stuff coming in. Anything that I released the

281
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subscribers in Summer League will also be off that way

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to talk for free, so check that out on my page,

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and of course my baseball package as well.

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Speaker 1: That's what I love the best. That's the luck Janni

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00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:18,759
the Greek, Thank you so much. Enjoy the rest of

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00:13:18,799 --> 00:13:21,399
your Saturday. Always a winner. Check them out at Greek

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00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:25,240
Underscore Gambler guys. The gold Sheet, the daily statu sheet.

288
00:13:25,399 --> 00:13:27,600
You have to look because each edition it's loaded by

289
00:13:27,639 --> 00:13:31,159
nine am Eastern time each morning. It features two free plays.

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00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:34,279
Analysis is in there, tons of stats info on the

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00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:40,159
MLB slate. Visit WT dot Buzz, slash tgs and scroll

292
00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:44,879
down to the download section access today's complimentary gold sheet.

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00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:47,240
Definitely go use it. Use all the tools that we

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have a wager talk. They are super helpful, like odds

295
00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:53,200
Logic dot com, slash prop Queen. You see Dan posting

296
00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:56,080
all the odds Logic screens and that's what we're using

297
00:13:56,159 --> 00:13:58,600
to see how lines moved throughout the day and you

298
00:13:58,639 --> 00:14:02,679
could get a good feel for sharp action. Yeah prop Queen.

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00:14:02,799 --> 00:14:05,600
Addslagic dot com, slash prop Queen. Make sure to go

300
00:14:05,679 --> 00:14:08,320
check it out and you guys can utilize the odd screen.

301
00:14:08,759 --> 00:14:11,159
You guys ask if I like strikeout props today, I do.

302
00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:14,240
Like Carlos Rodan under six and a half strikeouts. He's

303
00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:16,320
gone under this and all three starts he's had against

304
00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:19,559
teams with low car rates against lefties. That's the Mets

305
00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:23,519
who have gone under in like sixty percent of games.

306
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I actually have the exact number if you want. Before

307
00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:28,399
we get to Andrew. The Mets have gone under against

308
00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:33,440
lefties in seven, sorry, thirteen of the twenty games that

309
00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:37,039
they face a lefty starter. So thirteen under seven overs

310
00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:39,799
when facing the Mets as a lefty on their kprop

311
00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:42,360
averaging four point four strikeouts a game six and a

312
00:14:42,399 --> 00:14:44,720
half k's way too high for Carlos Rodan, so I

313
00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:48,000
would go take the under bitjuiced minus one forty five

314
00:14:48,080 --> 00:14:50,320
minus one forty But if you could still grab that,

315
00:14:50,399 --> 00:14:53,399
I think that it's good value coming up now because

316
00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:57,080
I know everyone misses football, everyone loves to talk football.

317
00:14:57,320 --> 00:15:00,039
I know we don't have the NFL, yet we do

318
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have the CFL, and that's why we bring on our

319
00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:07,279
own our Canadian he's coming in from Cananada. And yes

320
00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:09,399
I say Canada because it's an inside joke from when

321
00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:12,240
I was in middle school. Andrew mckinnis, thank you for

322
00:15:12,279 --> 00:15:13,759
hopping on on a Saturday.

323
00:15:13,759 --> 00:15:16,240
Speaker 2: How are you good? Good? Great to see you. And

324
00:15:16,279 --> 00:15:18,120
I know it's like a disappointment for people when you

325
00:15:18,159 --> 00:15:21,440
talk football and it's not college football or NFL, it's

326
00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:24,519
still football, and it gets me through the summer. So

327
00:15:24,519 --> 00:15:26,559
I'm happy to talk about it. And when you've got

328
00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:30,000
like forty handicappers just all battling over spots on the

329
00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:33,320
website and for videos and clicks with MLB, it's kind

330
00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:36,120
of refreshing to be like one of four people doing CFL.

331
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So I'll take it.

332
00:15:37,399 --> 00:15:40,159
Speaker 1: AREO, thank you. And I don't know what Shawn Michael said,

333
00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:42,759
isn't it mckinnis McKinnon. I didn't say McKinnon. I don't

334
00:15:42,799 --> 00:15:44,639
even know why I would. I would never say McKinnon.

335
00:15:44,679 --> 00:15:47,759
I don't know. Maybe I did accident, but thank you.

336
00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:51,279
I know it's Andrew mckinness. Okay, anyway, sometimes Sean Michael

337
00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:54,600
throws me off my game. Let's talk some CFL. I

338
00:15:54,759 --> 00:15:56,679
was so pumped because I saw in the chat that

339
00:15:56,720 --> 00:15:58,080
you wrote that you have a prop.

340
00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:01,480
Speaker 2: Yes, what is it? Yeah? It's awesome. Like so, for

341
00:16:02,519 --> 00:16:05,240
years I was hesitant to give out props, whether it

342
00:16:05,279 --> 00:16:08,559
be on wager talk or x or Instagram or wherever

343
00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:11,799
with CFL, because first of all, every book was like

344
00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:14,600
way different with how they graded everything or not greted thing,

345
00:16:14,679 --> 00:16:17,080
how they posted their numbers, and you just don't want

346
00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:19,200
to be given out props where one book has a

347
00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:21,759
guy at sixty six rushing yards. One book has a

348
00:16:21,799 --> 00:16:24,200
guy at fifty eight. I mean, that's just a massive difference,

349
00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:27,440
but most books offer props. Now most of the time

350
00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:31,320
it's relatively the same number here, and this is one

351
00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:34,320
of those ones where we're just going to look at

352
00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:38,440
kind of fading a player against an opponent's strength. And

353
00:16:38,679 --> 00:16:43,039
the BC Lions have been horrid against the run, but

354
00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:46,519
they've been really good against the past, the best passing

355
00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:48,679
defense in the league. So we're going to take a

356
00:16:48,679 --> 00:16:53,639
look at the best receiver statistically on the Monshaw Alouettes

357
00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:56,679
under sixty eight and a half receiving yards. That's Tyson

358
00:16:56,720 --> 00:16:59,799
Philpott under sixty eight and a half receiving yards. The

359
00:17:00,159 --> 00:17:03,159
only game that he has gone over this number so

360
00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:08,279
far this season has been against the Edmonton Elks, and

361
00:17:08,319 --> 00:17:12,200
I will tell you nobody has trouble going over any

362
00:17:12,279 --> 00:17:15,160
yardish numbers when they're playing against the Edmonton Elks, so

363
00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:17,640
it doesn't really matter when you look at them. We

364
00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:21,799
got forty eight, forty two, ninety six and forty one.

365
00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:25,960
In that game against Edmonton, he had four receptions ninety

366
00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:30,359
six yards and his average reception was twelve yards. So

367
00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:33,240
sometimes when you look at a player's numbers, you can

368
00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:35,720
be a little bit overwhelmed by Oh, well, that one

369
00:17:35,839 --> 00:17:38,839
game he looked really good. Well, that one game was

370
00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:42,200
against the worst defense and just overall the worst team

371
00:17:42,279 --> 00:17:44,920
in the whole league. So you know, Montreal very well

372
00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:47,799
could have a good day today. But their offense is

373
00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:50,720
so deep. They have so many weapons both on the

374
00:17:50,759 --> 00:17:53,440
ground and in the air that I think Tyson Philpott

375
00:17:53,519 --> 00:17:56,559
will go under sixty eight and a half receiving yards.

376
00:17:57,039 --> 00:17:59,279
Speaker 1: I love it. I love a prop under. I love

377
00:17:59,359 --> 00:18:02,839
in an each more market. Andrew mccannis, you rock. You

378
00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:04,720
know that you had to get me a prop. I

379
00:18:04,759 --> 00:18:06,920
know that you also have a team total. So for

380
00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:09,440
the people that don't like to bet unders because they're sadistic,

381
00:18:09,519 --> 00:18:10,240
you do like an over.

382
00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:13,720
Speaker 2: What is it? Well, you know this year in the CFL,

383
00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:18,480
every team that has won has hit their team total.

384
00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:22,920
Every team that has won so far has covered the

385
00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:26,960
point spread. Sounds pretty easy, right, we're here in week five.

386
00:18:27,079 --> 00:18:29,759
You pick the winner. That means you pick the point

387
00:18:29,759 --> 00:18:33,359
spread winner. You pick the point spread winner. That means

388
00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:36,079
you pick the team total winner. So you guys can

389
00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:38,720
use that for what it is as far as this

390
00:18:38,839 --> 00:18:42,200
play here, but I'm looking at Ottawa. The current number

391
00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:46,319
over twenty seven and a half points plus one oh four.

392
00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:48,000
You love getting that little I could have laid a

393
00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:50,240
little chalk with the twenty six and a half. We'll

394
00:18:50,279 --> 00:18:52,960
take over twenty seven and a half plus one oh four.

395
00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:56,319
I love these team total bets. This is an Edmonton

396
00:18:56,359 --> 00:18:58,799
team that I just talked about already when I talked

397
00:18:58,799 --> 00:19:03,599
about the previous prop. Edmonton has surrendered on average thirty

398
00:19:03,799 --> 00:19:07,279
five points per game. And Ariel when you look at

399
00:19:07,319 --> 00:19:12,160
teams and you know the quarterback situation, handicapping based on injuries.

400
00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:14,799
I know in a lot of sports you want to

401
00:19:14,839 --> 00:19:18,200
bet on a team maybe when they're starting quarterbacks not

402
00:19:18,319 --> 00:19:21,720
there because of the value. There's maybe one or two

403
00:19:21,759 --> 00:19:25,119
teams you can do that with in the CFL. Winnipeg,

404
00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:27,359
we cash a ticket with them in the first week

405
00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:30,079
of the season when their backup quarterback had to start.

406
00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:32,519
But the problem with the CFL, and you know, I'm

407
00:19:32,559 --> 00:19:35,319
a huge advocate for the league, when you go from

408
00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:38,279
QB one to QB two, or especially to QB two

409
00:19:38,319 --> 00:19:41,920
to QB three, there is a massive massive drop off.

410
00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:45,799
So Ottawa looked really good in Week one their quarterback

411
00:19:45,799 --> 00:19:48,799
put up four hundred yards and then he got injured.

412
00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:52,160
Because in the preview at wager talk dot com, I

413
00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:55,640
said this Ottawa offensive line might not let their quarterback

414
00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:58,160
make it to Week six. Well, he didn't even make

415
00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:00,480
it out of the third quarter of Week one. But

416
00:20:00,599 --> 00:20:04,319
he is back. He is making his return tomorrow night

417
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:08,480
on Sunday, seven pm Eastern Drew Brown, and I think

418
00:20:08,559 --> 00:20:11,759
he will lead his team to success, but it's gonna

419
00:20:11,759 --> 00:20:13,680
be a ton of points. So forget about worrying about

420
00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:17,119
Ottawa winning, although I do think they will win. We'll

421
00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:19,880
just bet the team total over twenty seven and a half.

422
00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:22,759
No matter who Edmonton has played so far this season,

423
00:20:23,079 --> 00:20:25,599
they've given up a ton of points. It hasn't even

424
00:20:25,599 --> 00:20:27,400
been their offense. And that's what makes me laugh. The

425
00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:31,000
media keeps talking about Edmonton's quarterback and the receivers and

426
00:20:31,039 --> 00:20:33,200
all their players on the offensive side of the ball.

427
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:36,079
The real problem is, it doesn't matter who the quarterback

428
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:38,200
is for Edmonton if they can't get a stop. So

429
00:20:38,519 --> 00:20:40,720
let's get some points in that one. And I got

430
00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:44,680
a big five percent play going tonight in the CFL.

431
00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:47,400
It's a side bet really like this one here, really

432
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:50,279
like the spot play sets up perfectly for us and

433
00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:54,559
long term up fifty units on CFL five percent play.

434
00:20:54,599 --> 00:20:56,920
It has been really selective, and you know, I think

435
00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:58,680
back to a couple of years ago where I had

436
00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,839
a really bad down year in the CFL, and even

437
00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:05,039
in that down year, I crushed the five percent plays,

438
00:21:05,079 --> 00:21:07,680
So very selective with these. We do well with the

439
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:10,039
big plays, and we step out and if you guys

440
00:21:10,079 --> 00:21:11,680
are ready for a big week and a big night,

441
00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:13,799
we got no UFC. Hey I got to play for

442
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,079
in the CFL five percent big bet?

443
00:21:16,319 --> 00:21:17,599
Speaker 1: What time is it that, Andrew?

444
00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:19,440
Speaker 2: Seven pm Eastern?

445
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:22,000
Speaker 1: There you go, seven pm Eastern. If you want some

446
00:21:22,039 --> 00:21:25,559
football action, you got it up there in Canada. Andrew mckinnis,

447
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:27,960
thank you as always for coming on here on a Saturday.

448
00:21:28,039 --> 00:21:29,599
And I know you said what you're promoting, So is

449
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:31,200
there anything else left or you got it all?

450
00:21:31,799 --> 00:21:33,559
Speaker 2: Oh well, I believe we still have some time for

451
00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:36,400
that Fourth of July special. I think that there's still

452
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:38,039
a couple of days left of that. So it's a

453
00:21:38,079 --> 00:21:41,359
really good deal. Sixty nine dollars for a full week.

454
00:21:41,799 --> 00:21:44,440
And I was honored to make the graphic as a

455
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,599
Canadian on here, so I love bet shout out to

456
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:51,000
the team at wager Talk there. So yeah, fourth of

457
00:21:51,079 --> 00:21:54,759
July it was Canada Day, Yes exactly, I'm the first,

458
00:21:54,799 --> 00:21:56,920
so I'm happy to get included since there was no

459
00:21:57,039 --> 00:22:01,359
graphic for Canada Day. Sixty nine dollars all CFL plays,

460
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:03,960
the occasional MLB plays as well, and anything else that

461
00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:06,839
I throw out there. Obviously five percent plays they're thirty

462
00:22:06,839 --> 00:22:10,759
five dollars. So thirty five dollars in this one week

463
00:22:11,079 --> 00:22:13,480
is sixty nine dollars. You guys do the math, you

464
00:22:13,519 --> 00:22:15,960
know what's best for you. Hopefully you guys join me today.

465
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:16,680
Let's have a great day.

466
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:20,720
Speaker 1: Andrew mckinnis, thank you, as always, we appreciate you. Good

467
00:22:20,839 --> 00:22:23,960
luck tonight. For the people that want some football action,

468
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:27,880
go ahead. It starts seven pm Eastern time for mckinness's plays.

469
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:30,319
Coming up. Now, we're going to talk some NFL. So

470
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:32,480
if you want some American football now that the fourth

471
00:22:32,519 --> 00:22:35,519
of July is over, you want to start handicapping. You

472
00:22:35,759 --> 00:22:39,400
know that this guy, Teddy Covers has been covering the

473
00:22:39,559 --> 00:22:42,240
NFL for the last few weeks. He's talking with totals.

474
00:22:42,279 --> 00:22:44,279
He's got you covered on all things futures and like

475
00:22:44,319 --> 00:22:47,240
Shawn Michael said, we've got an NFL game in twenty

476
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:52,359
four days. It's time to bring on Teddy Covers. Thanks

477
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,200
for coming on, great to be here.

478
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:55,160
Speaker 4: How's Rockland today?

479
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,559
Speaker 1: Hi, it's great, it's beautiful. The weather's been awesome. The

480
00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:01,400
weather apparently in Flora for Kelly, it was terrible. So

481
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:04,440
I was laughing because Kelly told me that New York

482
00:23:04,559 --> 00:23:07,400
sucks and she says Florida's the best. And don't get

483
00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:10,279
me wrong, I love Florida. I just was laughing that

484
00:23:10,319 --> 00:23:12,839
her karma hit her on her favorite holiday, the Fourth

485
00:23:12,839 --> 00:23:15,480
of July, that she got rain and we got eighty

486
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:16,160
five and sunny.

487
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 4: Perfect.

488
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:19,359
Speaker 1: Thank you?

489
00:23:19,039 --> 00:23:20,119
Speaker 2: What have you been up?

490
00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:21,359
Speaker 1: Did you have a good Fourth of July?

491
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:24,440
Speaker 4: Sure? So, you know, it's one hundred every day here

492
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:26,880
in Vegas, so it's not like you're the weather change

493
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:31,200
a whole lot. In the summertime, it's hot and it's a.

494
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:32,359
Speaker 1: Great combers eat.

495
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:36,240
Speaker 4: On the fourth of July, I had a burger burgery.

496
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:38,079
Speaker 1: You're a burger over hot dog guy.

497
00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:41,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's just that's what the wife made me to

498
00:23:41,799 --> 00:23:45,039
fire up on the grill. So it was burger's not hot.

499
00:23:45,279 --> 00:23:47,680
Speaker 1: Well, let's get into some NFL action, because I know

500
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:50,599
it's something that you've really been focusing on, Teddy. What

501
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:53,279
could the people expect and what have you been doing

502
00:23:53,319 --> 00:23:55,119
so far? Here at wager Talk for the NFL.

503
00:23:55,759 --> 00:23:59,839
Speaker 4: So the NFL. My NFL Wind Report came out on Wednesday,

504
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:02,519
So it is basically hot off the presses right now.

505
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:05,279
It's one hundred and ninety nine dollars. For those of

506
00:24:05,279 --> 00:24:07,160
you who want to buy it separate, you can use

507
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:10,720
promo code NFL one hundred, take one hundred bucks off

508
00:24:10,759 --> 00:24:12,960
my full NFL season and get this report for free,

509
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:17,039
absolutely free right now on my pageby dot buzz, backslash TC.

510
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:20,960
This is something I've been in Las Vegas since nineteen

511
00:24:21,039 --> 00:24:24,079
ninety eight. I started doing win reports in two thousand

512
00:24:24,079 --> 00:24:26,039
and one was the first year that I released a

513
00:24:26,079 --> 00:24:29,799
win report, and in that time one oh three and

514
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:33,319
fifty two sixty six percent over a twenty four year

515
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:36,440
sample size. And you're talking about locking up your money

516
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:38,440
long term. You don't want to do it unless you

517
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,319
have a darn good reason to. I think one three

518
00:24:41,319 --> 00:24:44,039
and fifty two is a pretty darn good reason, and

519
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:46,400
I have chosen to lock my money up year after

520
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:50,240
year long term. The Big Ticket's been even better, you know,

521
00:24:50,279 --> 00:24:53,640
sixty six percent counting every play, the five percent seventeen

522
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:55,960
and four eighty one percent. Last year, the New Orleans

523
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:59,319
Saints under were my five percent, and obviously they were

524
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:02,799
they there, uh rough start, they started too it. Oh,

525
00:25:02,799 --> 00:25:04,599
it looked like the best team in football and then

526
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:07,039
proceeded to win only three games the rest of the season.

527
00:25:07,039 --> 00:25:08,799
So the clients and I cash with New Orleans with

528
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:12,640
rum despair on that five percent Big ticket and the report.

529
00:25:12,839 --> 00:25:14,240
You know, I mean you said it was a few weeks.

530
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:17,079
I've been working on this basically since about Memorial Day.

531
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:19,319
You know, after the draft you start to sit down.

532
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:21,400
I start to sit down and start looking at teams.

533
00:25:21,599 --> 00:25:23,960
A Memorial Day you started really taking down notes and

534
00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:26,880
getting ready. So it's been about six weeks worth of prep.

535
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:30,279
That's my standard for the NFL Wind Report, and it's

536
00:25:30,319 --> 00:25:32,400
up and available right now on my home page w

537
00:25:32,519 --> 00:25:34,359
dot Buzz, backslash TC.

538
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:38,039
Speaker 1: For anyone that has any questions for Teddy about the

539
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:42,079
NFL Wind Report or NFL futures wins totals in general,

540
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:44,119
write them in the chat. We could answer them as

541
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:47,200
soon as as long as Teddy is on So get

542
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:50,240
your questions in as as soon as you can, Teddy,

543
00:25:50,319 --> 00:25:52,359
I know the Commanders are a team that you've got

544
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:55,079
your eye on. What have you seen out of Washington?

545
00:25:55,799 --> 00:25:57,240
Speaker 4: Well, we have more than all right on, We've got

546
00:25:57,279 --> 00:25:59,640
a bet against the Commanders under nine and a half wins.

547
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,039
Wevice my clients to make that same bet. You get

548
00:26:02,039 --> 00:26:04,240
plus money right now on under nine and a half

549
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,920
for the Washington. And there's five basic rationales why I

550
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:10,200
don't like Washington command And again it's not like I

551
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:11,799
hate this team. I think they were a five hundred

552
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:13,759
level team. I expect them to win eight or nine games.

553
00:26:13,799 --> 00:26:15,359
They are not expecting to win ten or more, which

554
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:16,759
is what they need to do to go over nine

555
00:26:16,759 --> 00:26:20,160
and a half. So it starts with last year, all right.

556
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:23,799
Then this team went from four to thirteen to twelve

557
00:26:23,799 --> 00:26:26,000
and five last year, and then that included five straight

558
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:28,279
winscho out of the regular season, a couple wins in the postseason.

559
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:32,599
We look at their strength of schedule, the opposing quarterbacks,

560
00:26:32,599 --> 00:26:35,279
the opposing team that they faced, every one of those

561
00:26:35,319 --> 00:26:37,519
wins down the stretch came against a backupper third string

562
00:26:37,599 --> 00:26:42,079
quarterback for a full season. My numbers, I don't use

563
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:46,559
the mainstream numbers. I use my power rating on the

564
00:26:46,599 --> 00:26:51,079
week the game was played, and based on my powering

565
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:54,839
number the week the game was played. Last year, the

566
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:58,920
Washington Commanders played the single easiest schedule in the NFL,

567
00:26:59,279 --> 00:27:01,240
and when you look at what they did down the stretch,

568
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:03,720
you gonna understand why they got that. So, yes, they

569
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,079
were a good team last year, but a we expect

570
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:08,640
regression from a team that goes from four to thirteen

571
00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:11,880
to twelve and five one season, natural aggression. That's part one,

572
00:27:12,319 --> 00:27:14,440
part two. Last year they faced the easiest schedule in

573
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:18,799
the NFL period based on my numbers, This year they

574
00:27:18,839 --> 00:27:22,119
do not face the easiest schedule in the NFL, and

575
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:24,160
they have all kinds of rest differential problems. They plays

576
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:26,720
an NFL high three teams coming off of bye, they

577
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:28,839
face two other teams coming off many by They won't

578
00:27:28,839 --> 00:27:30,960
have the rest edge this year the way they did

579
00:27:31,039 --> 00:27:34,480
a season ago. Something else happened last year that really

580
00:27:34,519 --> 00:27:36,920
stands out that is not going to repeat in twenty

581
00:27:37,079 --> 00:27:40,599
twenty five. Washington on fourth downs, and there's no more

582
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:43,039
important play than fourth downs when it comes to winning

583
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:46,200
or losing. When it comes to high leverage plays, fourth

584
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:49,240
downs matter more than any other, and Washington won twenty

585
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:51,319
of twenty three on fourth downs last year. Off the

586
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:54,640
charts unheard of good. Literally, no team's ever had a

587
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:58,240
better ever with that many conversions. Shouldn't say ever, because

588
00:27:58,279 --> 00:28:00,200
all we have is this century data for fourth But

589
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:01,920
I don't think anyone was going for four downs in

590
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:03,680
the nineties and the eighties and the seventies the way

591
00:28:03,759 --> 00:28:06,799
Washington last year. So twenty to twenty three on fourth downs,

592
00:28:06,839 --> 00:28:12,240
we expect some regression in that particulars Tisco category. Last,

593
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:15,319
but not least, look at the rosters. Washington is the

594
00:28:15,519 --> 00:28:19,160
single oldest team in the NFL. It's not close. All

595
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:22,000
they did this offseason. Let's sign old guys, let's sign

596
00:28:22,079 --> 00:28:25,359
veteran guys. We like teams that are a little bit

597
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:27,880
younger than Washington when it comes to full season numbers,

598
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:30,119
not guys who have already been paid and are on

599
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:32,960
the wrong side of thirty. So commanders under nine and

600
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:34,839
a half wins. It's a bet for me, it's a

601
00:28:34,839 --> 00:28:36,640
bet for the clients, and I'm happy to give it

602
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,359
to you here. If you're watching wait your talk, last call.

603
00:28:40,519 --> 00:28:43,039
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that you're fading the public there because

604
00:28:43,039 --> 00:28:45,160
I know that people are going to be on them.

605
00:28:45,319 --> 00:28:48,359
And then somewhat Titan CT said, I see you like

606
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:50,759
the Raiders versus the Pats Week one, could you do

607
00:28:50,839 --> 00:28:52,039
a big game breakdown.

608
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:55,359
Speaker 4: Let's absolutely do a big game for breakdown for the

609
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:57,480
Raiders and the Pats. But before I get into it again,

610
00:28:57,519 --> 00:29:00,759
that promo code NFL one hundred is gonna get you

611
00:29:00,759 --> 00:29:03,079
a one hundred bucks off my NFL season pass and

612
00:29:03,119 --> 00:29:06,640
you'll get my season win report absolutely free. You get everything,

613
00:29:06,839 --> 00:29:09,920
but I've already released Season Wins obviously, you'll get part

614
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:11,599
two of that report. You get the entire preseason, the

615
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:15,480
regular season, everything through the Super Bowl. NFL one hundred

616
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:18,240
at checkout will give you a hundred bucks off and

617
00:29:18,279 --> 00:29:21,359
you get the win report absolutely free. I've already released

618
00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:23,680
a couple of plays four Week one. The only reason

619
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:25,839
to bet Week one games right now is if you

620
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:29,079
think the line's gonna move and this one. There are

621
00:29:29,079 --> 00:29:30,759
two and a half's out there, there are threes out there.

622
00:29:30,799 --> 00:29:32,720
I'm like, let's lock in a three right now with

623
00:29:32,839 --> 00:29:35,920
the Raiders plus three at New England. And there's two

624
00:29:36,079 --> 00:29:41,000
basic components to this. First, Patriots can't be laying. They

625
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:43,400
can't be laying again. If you're laying three, they have

626
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:45,279
to win by more than a field goal. They gotta

627
00:29:45,319 --> 00:29:48,079
win by four points or more in order for you

628
00:29:48,119 --> 00:29:51,200
to cast that bet. And the Patriots aren't that team yet.

629
00:29:51,359 --> 00:29:53,640
I understand they're supposed to be better this year. I

630
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:57,680
expect they will be better this year, but they weren't

631
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:01,279
favored in any games last year. The year before that,

632
00:30:01,279 --> 00:30:03,839
I think they covered one in five tries. Mike Vrabel's

633
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:06,119
not a favorite. Head coach Mike Vrabels covered one in

634
00:30:06,119 --> 00:30:08,880
his last five tries. When is worried about winning this game,

635
00:30:09,279 --> 00:30:13,000
not winning it by margin, And again, three points can

636
00:30:13,039 --> 00:30:16,519
be a mountain between two even teams, which this is

637
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:21,319
the Raiders are. Certainly their schedule is tougher than New Englands.

638
00:30:21,319 --> 00:30:23,119
That's why their win total is lower, not because they're

639
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:26,440
a power rating is a whole big different. And everything

640
00:30:26,559 --> 00:30:29,440
that the Raiders did this offseason, not to win a

641
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:33,279
Super Bowl and not bottoming out, it's let's be competitive,

642
00:30:33,759 --> 00:30:36,599
let's not be bottom feeders. Whether it comes to Pete Carroll,

643
00:30:36,599 --> 00:30:38,160
whether it comes to Gino Smith, whether it comes to

644
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:40,359
the free agent signings. A bunch of free agent signings

645
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:43,279
on defense that are win now type of moves or

646
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:47,880
slight upgrade now type of moves. I think they're competitive.

647
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:51,400
You talk about Week one early start games, well that's

648
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:53,160
when they running Star game. Don't matter. Teams aren't in

649
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:55,200
their regular season rhythm, and if they play at ten

650
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:58,359
am Pacific time, it's no big deal. I think it's

651
00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:00,000
a tight game. I think it's a field goal game

652
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:02,119
at most. I think the Raiders are live to win.

653
00:31:02,279 --> 00:31:06,359
And I took the three with l V and I'd

654
00:31:06,359 --> 00:31:08,200
advise my clients to make that same bet.

655
00:31:09,319 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 1: Wow, listen, Week one. I will never forget Last year,

656
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:16,480
everyone and their mother was on the Bengals. Everyone in

657
00:31:16,519 --> 00:31:19,799
Survivor was on the Bengals, and I said, guys, I

658
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:22,680
like the Pats, so it's funny Week one Now I'm

659
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:24,839
gonna be fade in the Pats. But they the Pats

660
00:31:24,839 --> 00:31:27,440
made me so happy last year in Week one with

661
00:31:27,559 --> 00:31:29,559
the upset, I took the plus six in the half

662
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:31,480
and I also had them on the money line, and

663
00:31:31,519 --> 00:31:33,960
I was super pumped, and everyone was like, what, that's

664
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:37,559
so stupid. Just because people are low on teams, it's

665
00:31:37,559 --> 00:31:39,839
the best time to go grab them on Week one

666
00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:42,920
while the other team with the Pats coming in feeling high,

667
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,359
looking at the chat, seeing if anyone else has anything

668
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:49,400
else for the NFL. Teddy, who do you like to

669
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:51,839
win the super Bowl? Chris Dagan asked, I'd.

670
00:31:51,599 --> 00:31:54,119
Speaker 4: Never make that bet. Of all the bets to make,

671
00:31:54,279 --> 00:31:56,599
all right, literally, of all the bets to make, that

672
00:31:56,680 --> 00:32:00,160
might be this. I'm not gonna call anyone dumb. It

673
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:02,960
is not a profitable bet, all right, Not short term,

674
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:04,640
not long term. If you want to have a ticket

675
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:06,200
and say I got the super Bowl winner and you

676
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:08,920
can brag to your friends, bet all thirty two teams

677
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:13,279
and do that. Literally, but odds to win the super Bowl.

678
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:18,079
One team's gonna win, thirty one is gonna lose in July.

679
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:21,119
It's there's twenty teams that can win the super Bowl

680
00:32:21,119 --> 00:32:23,400
that I can make a realistic case for winning Super Bowl.

681
00:32:23,599 --> 00:32:25,759
And you don't even get twenty to one on half

682
00:32:25,799 --> 00:32:29,119
of those teams. So it's not a bet that I make.

683
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,200
I bet season wins. Season wins is a betable, a

684
00:32:32,319 --> 00:32:35,119
beatable market odds when the Super Bowl is not.

685
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:38,759
Speaker 1: Sorry, Betty, how do you tell people to approach betting

686
00:32:38,839 --> 00:32:42,079
NFL futures when there's so much uncertainty going into training camp,

687
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:43,720
especially when it comes to injuries.

688
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:46,839
Speaker 4: So sometimes you end up on the wrong side of

689
00:32:46,839 --> 00:32:48,400
injury luck. Sometimes you end up on the right side

690
00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:51,079
of injury luck. All right, plain and simple. One of

691
00:32:51,119 --> 00:32:54,440
the things that I do in my handicapping for the

692
00:32:54,480 --> 00:33:00,240
season win report. Depth is a huge factor. Sat a

693
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:03,200
five percent big ticket on the under last year because

694
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:06,839
they had absolutely no quality depth and it took two

695
00:33:06,839 --> 00:33:08,640
weeks for the team to get real with injuries and

696
00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:10,720
that was that. You know, they two great weeks and

697
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:13,119
the rest of the season they were bottom feeders. So

698
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:18,079
I pay a lot of attention to quality depth. And

699
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:21,440
I'm not betting over as on teams but don't have any,

700
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:23,440
and I'm not betting unders on teams that have a ton.

701
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:26,440
So I guess that's the way I answer that question.

702
00:33:26,519 --> 00:33:29,400
Is this part of my handicap, and injuries are gonna happen.

703
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:31,279
They can happen in August, that could happen in September,

704
00:33:31,279 --> 00:33:34,200
they can happen in December. It doesn't matter. They're gonna happen.

705
00:33:34,759 --> 00:33:37,599
You have to plan for injuries with your season long

706
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:41,440
bets and my handicapping. I think does that.

707
00:33:43,079 --> 00:33:45,880
Speaker 1: One more question from Sean Michael, he asked Bears under

708
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:46,640
eight and a half.

709
00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:53,720
Speaker 4: So the NFC North is a really good division, all right,

710
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:57,599
it really is. I like the Bears, I like the Lions,

711
00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:00,880
I like the Vikings, I like the Pack. I could

712
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:03,720
see all four of those teams making the playoffs. And

713
00:34:03,799 --> 00:34:06,079
obviously the team that gets hurt is the one that's

714
00:34:06,119 --> 00:34:08,159
gonna the injuries are gonna be the one that the

715
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:12,679
rails one of those team seasons. But I'm not looking

716
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:16,239
to fade Chicago. We believe in the new coach, we

717
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:19,679
believe in the quarterback. That's a good football team. The

718
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:24,800
offseason moves that they made win now, moves, not win

719
00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:27,599
two three years from now. The offensive line should be

720
00:34:27,639 --> 00:34:29,519
a whole lot better, the defensive line should be a

721
00:34:29,519 --> 00:34:33,280
whole lot better. On paper, Chicago's a team that can

722
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:36,599
contend for the playoffs. So under eight and a half there,

723
00:34:36,599 --> 00:34:40,559
it didn't make my card. And again, I don't know

724
00:34:40,559 --> 00:34:46,079
if the Bears look pretty good. I think they're not

725
00:34:46,119 --> 00:34:48,000
a team I'm looking to fade right now. Of the

726
00:34:48,039 --> 00:34:51,360
four NFC WET North teams, the one I was most

727
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:54,679
interested in a season win over was the Minnesota. I

728
00:34:54,679 --> 00:34:56,360
got a little bit priced out of that market, so

729
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:58,800
Chicago wasn't really on that list, but I'm not looking

730
00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:02,199
to fade the Bears. All four of those teams have

731
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:03,840
bet on potential.

732
00:35:05,079 --> 00:35:07,559
Speaker 1: Roger Long asked, do you expect Kansas City to bounce

733
00:35:07,599 --> 00:35:09,199
back after losing in the Super Bowl?

734
00:35:10,159 --> 00:35:12,840
Speaker 4: So Casey under eleven and a half was on my season,

735
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:15,280
was on my short list. You know, again, my short

736
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:17,800
list is half the league. But you know, those are

737
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:21,320
the teams when I'm going through my research. You know,

738
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:23,360
I started all right, hey, this team looks pretty good.

739
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,199
I put him on the over the short list. This

740
00:35:25,199 --> 00:35:26,960
team looks pretty shitty, Let's put him on the under

741
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:29,079
short list. And you go through division by division and

742
00:35:29,079 --> 00:35:30,920
you end up with you know, I think it was fifteen.

743
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:33,679
The thirty two teams were on one of the two lists,

744
00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:36,719
which means the seventeen teams I thought were priced correctly

745
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:39,440
and fifteen teams there was some value perhaps to go

746
00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:42,039
against from a season win standpoint. And the Chiefs were

747
00:35:42,079 --> 00:35:43,760
one of the teams that I went that I had

748
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:47,639
on the underlist, and I started look at Andy. I mean,

749
00:35:47,679 --> 00:35:50,760
I was familiar with Andy's track record. Do you know

750
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:52,800
how many unders Andy Reid as cash as a head

751
00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:58,719
coach in County, Philadelphia and Kansas City. Not many, you know,

752
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:01,800
you can fit them on. I think three fingers, and when.

753
00:36:01,639 --> 00:36:04,440
Speaker 1: They all have to be a little bit psychotic to

754
00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:09,920
be taken unders and fading the Chiefs, so at.

755
00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:11,519
Speaker 4: Some point they don't.

756
00:36:12,079 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 1: This is the season on the Chiefs having a problem

757
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:17,960
this year, I exactly is in the division. I think

758
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:20,679
everyone's high on Denver. No one's talking about the Chargers,

759
00:36:20,679 --> 00:36:22,480
who have given the Chiefs a run for their money

760
00:36:22,559 --> 00:36:24,960
ever since Justin Herbert's come in. Harball is a great

761
00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:27,920
head coach, and the Chiefs they're getting older, and at

762
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:30,320
some point there's got to be a regression and most

763
00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:33,039
Super Bowl runner up Steady do end up going under

764
00:36:33,039 --> 00:36:34,039
their win total the next.

765
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:37,159
Speaker 4: Year, all of which points towards Kate. I don't agree,

766
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:40,480
disagree with anything of that. You know, yes, Casey's ready

767
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:43,760
for some regression. Yes, super Bowl losers are supposed to

768
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:45,440
lose more. You know, they're supposed to have a down

769
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:48,719
year the following season. Although last time Casey lost Super

770
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:49,320
Bowl they did not.

771
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:53,840
Speaker 1: And they're pretty much the anomalies exactly.

772
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:57,079
Speaker 4: And that's and and again. Andy Reid's track record as

773
00:36:57,079 --> 00:36:58,840
a head coach you can go back to a tenure

774
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:01,880
in Philadelphia. It's extra ordinary when it comes to season

775
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:05,760
win totals. And when you look at case again, the

776
00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:08,960
case to be made for them for regression is, well,

777
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:13,599
they lost the Super Bowl. It's not their personnel as

778
00:37:13,639 --> 00:37:15,519
week last year.

779
00:37:15,559 --> 00:37:20,599
Speaker 1: To be honest, they were the ugly Brady teams.

780
00:37:21,159 --> 00:37:25,840
Speaker 4: Yes, but last year they didn't have a single healthy receiver.

781
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:30,199
All right. That receiving corps this year is elite if

782
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:34,039
guys are healthy, all right. Mahomes has weapons they didn't

783
00:37:34,039 --> 00:37:37,039
have a year ago. The oppositive line last year had

784
00:37:37,119 --> 00:37:41,599
some issues this year in theory, and we don't know.

785
00:37:41,679 --> 00:37:43,079
I want to watch this. This is an offsitive line, and

786
00:37:43,079 --> 00:37:46,000
I want to see in August. I do you know,

787
00:37:46,039 --> 00:37:48,079
they're a handful of teams. I'm really interested in taking

788
00:37:48,079 --> 00:37:51,719
a look but u and watching preseason games and seeing

789
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:54,000
what it feels like, you know, in terms of their

790
00:37:54,039 --> 00:37:56,360
past protector and the like. But this offensive line had

791
00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:58,800
issues last year. They made a bunch of changes this offseason.

792
00:37:59,119 --> 00:38:02,320
I would expect the ol to be a little bit

793
00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:07,199
better in that regard. So with weapons and with protection,

794
00:38:08,079 --> 00:38:10,280
the defense isn't you know, is every bit as good

795
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:13,320
and Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the world. Uh,

796
00:38:13,559 --> 00:38:16,800
So it's not. It's not. It's not a slam dunk

797
00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:20,039
betting against Casey under the lean was there. Maybe it's

798
00:38:20,079 --> 00:38:22,920
on the second report, part two of the win report,

799
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:24,199
but it did not make Part one.

800
00:38:25,519 --> 00:38:28,320
Speaker 1: Titans CT asked any thoughts on the Dolphins.

801
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:34,599
Speaker 4: So everyone seems to be really down on Miami right now.

802
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:39,400
I'm not. I think they are priced appropriately. I think

803
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:41,280
they're an eight or nine win team, which is exactly

804
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:45,480
where they're priced. And I believe in McDaniel as a

805
00:38:45,519 --> 00:38:49,039
head coach. I believe in Two as a quarterback very

806
00:38:49,119 --> 00:38:50,719
much so, both of those guys.

807
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:55,719
Speaker 1: So I'm sorry you believe in two as staying on

808
00:38:55,760 --> 00:39:00,280
the field. That has to go into the handicap.

809
00:39:00,519 --> 00:39:04,400
Speaker 4: It absolutely has to go on the handicap. And I'm

810
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:06,920
not gonna call Two a that much more injury riddle

811
00:39:07,039 --> 00:39:10,440
than any other quarterback. You know. Uh, He's played behind

812
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:12,400
a really crappy offensive line and that looks to be

813
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:16,440
an issue again this year potentially. And he's a littler guy, obviously,

814
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:21,639
he's not huge. But I think Miami is lying. I

815
00:39:21,679 --> 00:39:23,159
think they're an eight or nine win team. I think

816
00:39:23,159 --> 00:39:26,039
they're lined appropriately. I'm not seeing again the teams that

817
00:39:26,079 --> 00:39:28,000
you want to jump on that Wow, this team's priced

818
00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:30,760
way off. Miami's not that team. I think they're mediocre.

819
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:33,679
Speaker 1: I think our on Johnny, Detroit wants to know what

820
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:34,800
you think about the Lions.

821
00:39:36,239 --> 00:39:41,840
Speaker 4: So there's enormous urgency for the Detroit Lions this year.

822
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:43,679
All right, next year is where all the salary cap

823
00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:48,400
stuff's gonna hit. So Detroit has a window of this

824
00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:50,679
year before they have to start genising some of their talent,

825
00:39:51,039 --> 00:39:53,280
and that roster is as talented as any in football.

826
00:39:54,159 --> 00:39:58,199
Detroit is live to win the NFC, go to the

827
00:39:58,199 --> 00:40:02,559
big game, et cetera, et cetera. My biggest concern about

828
00:40:02,599 --> 00:40:07,280
the Lions is their coordinators. We saw it with Philadelphia.

829
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:09,719
Both coordinators left. The Eagles took a step back the

830
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:12,519
following year until last year when they went back up.

831
00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:15,880
It could well be that situation for Detroit. We're not

832
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:18,800
talking about two media recordage. You know, Glenn and Johnson

833
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:23,320
were instrumental in their success on the defensive NOTTSI side

834
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:26,239
of the football, respectively, and I think losing those two

835
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:30,119
guys matters for the Lions. But what's the upside for

836
00:40:30,159 --> 00:40:32,719
this team. The upside is super Bowl, super Bowl winner.

837
00:40:33,159 --> 00:40:36,199
That's the type of roster Detroit has. They're capable, but

838
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:40,079
will they get there? I mean, if you're a Lions fan,

839
00:40:40,159 --> 00:40:45,840
you know it's been a while, namely forever, and I

840
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:48,639
do worry about the coaching changes for Detroit off the

841
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:52,280
season that was extraordinarily successful in every way but one.

842
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:56,159
Speaker 1: Lions. The time has coming. All right, we've got to

843
00:40:56,159 --> 00:40:58,679
get to Major League baseball. Teddy, what are you promoting today?

844
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:02,679
Speaker 4: Wins Man? Get it now again. It's one ninety nine

845
00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:04,480
for the season win Report, or you can get it

846
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:06,679
for free if you buy my full NFL season get

847
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:08,360
every play every day from the first game of the

848
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:12,760
preseason right through the stuper Bowl promo code NFL one hundred.

849
00:41:12,760 --> 00:41:15,079
At checkout, we'll get you one hundred dollars off, and

850
00:41:15,119 --> 00:41:16,920
of course we will be in action in Major League

851
00:41:16,920 --> 00:41:19,280
Baseball later. Haven't put up anything yet to put I'll

852
00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:21,599
expect the post shortly at Drank get.

853
00:41:21,519 --> 00:41:25,719
Speaker 1: Off their Teddy covers. Happy Fourth of July weekend. Thank

854
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:27,719
you as always for coming on and giving us those

855
00:41:27,760 --> 00:41:30,480
insights into the NFL. For everybody that wants to get

856
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:34,119
involved in the NFL because you are itching for the season.

857
00:41:34,519 --> 00:41:36,679
You all know if you follow me, that I love

858
00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:39,000
major League Baseball. I love it as much as the NFL.

859
00:41:39,079 --> 00:41:41,639
I don't know which one to choose. Major League Baseball season.

860
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:44,239
It's here, We're approaching the All Star break. We've still

861
00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:46,239
got a couple of weeks left, so we're gonna bring

862
00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:48,960
on our final guest of the day. We are going

863
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:53,599
to talk major League Baseball with Steve Merrill. Steve Happy.

864
00:41:53,599 --> 00:41:54,920
Fourth of July weekend.

865
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:57,599
Speaker 5: Damn straight era, it's the fourth of July weekend. It

866
00:41:57,679 --> 00:41:59,400
is still going. I'll even flash you.

867
00:41:59,440 --> 00:42:01,280
Speaker 2: I'm gonna fly shot so again with the past.

868
00:42:02,039 --> 00:42:03,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, everyone loves the shot.

869
00:42:04,079 --> 00:42:05,559
Speaker 5: Yeah, I had to give you the crutch shot because

870
00:42:05,559 --> 00:42:07,880
I know you love the crutch shot. Nothing says America

871
00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:08,760
like got.

872
00:42:08,519 --> 00:42:11,280
Speaker 1: Loves it chat. That's what they That's what they tuned

873
00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:11,679
in for me.

874
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:12,360
Speaker 4: I'll tell you.

875
00:42:12,360 --> 00:42:14,519
Speaker 5: It's July fifth, It's officially the start of our two

876
00:42:14,599 --> 00:42:15,719
hundred and fiftieth year.

877
00:42:15,880 --> 00:42:18,000
Speaker 1: If you think about it, said to take it at

878
00:42:18,039 --> 00:42:20,000
plus one ten that was actually.

879
00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:20,320
Speaker 5: Oh wow, wow.

880
00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:22,320
Speaker 1: I would have taken that action on a plus one.

881
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:24,639
Speaker 5: I can't I can't say if I was involved or not,

882
00:42:24,639 --> 00:42:27,440
because the Cleveland Guardians might suspend me from my next start.

883
00:42:27,559 --> 00:42:29,519
So I won't say anything about that if I was

884
00:42:29,639 --> 00:42:30,559
in on that bet or not.

885
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:33,159
Speaker 1: Hey, the difference between you and Luis Ortiz is that

886
00:42:33,199 --> 00:42:36,280
you're allowed to gamble and he is not Steve. So

887
00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:39,639
everyone in the chat, you know, fire it up all

888
00:42:39,679 --> 00:42:43,639
the questions. I know that we did have one earlier. Dan,

889
00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:46,280
if you see it, let me know. I remember someone

890
00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:49,440
asked a baseball question already. There we go, NAT's game

891
00:42:49,480 --> 00:42:51,119
over ten runs, anywhord on it.

892
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:56,519
Speaker 5: So my Washington Nationals a little bit of a blowout

893
00:42:56,559 --> 00:42:58,760
loss yesterday. I was at that game a year ago,

894
00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:00,719
July fourth, they played them. That's last year in the

895
00:43:00,760 --> 00:43:01,599
eleven I.

896
00:43:01,519 --> 00:43:05,119
Speaker 1: Did actually also do Fourth of July game for at

897
00:43:05,199 --> 00:43:05,679
NAT's Park.

898
00:43:05,719 --> 00:43:08,119
Speaker 5: It was really cool, did you It was at the

899
00:43:08,159 --> 00:43:10,400
eleven the early start at the eleven AM. Because I've

900
00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:12,559
done that for a while, I think it is pretty cool.

901
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:15,079
Speaker 1: It was a blast. It was a really cool bucket

902
00:43:15,119 --> 00:43:17,559
list thing that I didn't even realize was something I

903
00:43:17,599 --> 00:43:20,000
wanted to do bucket list until it worked out.

904
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:22,320
Speaker 5: Well, you have to let me know whenever you're going

905
00:43:22,320 --> 00:43:24,199
to the Nats game, because I'm only a couple hours away,

906
00:43:24,199 --> 00:43:25,719
and I usually hit a few every year.

907
00:43:25,599 --> 00:43:27,840
Speaker 1: So it was a long time ago. I wasn't allowed

908
00:43:27,880 --> 00:43:28,760
to gamble yet.

909
00:43:28,639 --> 00:43:31,880
Speaker 5: You weren't allowed to camp. The MGM sportsbook wasn't right

910
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:33,599
at the entrance to the gate like it is now.

911
00:43:33,679 --> 00:43:36,360
Speaker 1: I mean no, this had to have been when I

912
00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:38,840
was in I used to travel to a different baseball

913
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:42,760
stadium every summer with my grandparents. Awesome, So I went

914
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:44,960
to NAT's one year. I must have been a junior

915
00:43:45,000 --> 00:43:45,920
in high school.

916
00:43:46,039 --> 00:43:47,960
Speaker 5: And they were Baltimore or at least I know your

917
00:43:48,039 --> 00:43:51,280
grandparents were Ravens fans, right, So my dad's.

918
00:43:51,039 --> 00:43:53,039
Speaker 1: Side, this was my mom's side. My mom's side is

919
00:43:53,119 --> 00:43:54,239
the Yankees fans.

920
00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:57,519
Speaker 5: I got my Camaro toad in high school from Camden Park.

921
00:43:57,599 --> 00:43:59,199
That's a story we'll tell on another show. That is

922
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:01,280
a great story. By the way, the tow truck brought

923
00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:03,480
the car back, but that's a story for a different show.

924
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:04,159
Speaker 4: When we have more time.

925
00:44:04,199 --> 00:44:07,760
Speaker 5: Remind me sometime or we're running when we need filler time,

926
00:44:08,119 --> 00:44:10,920
and I'll tell the Camden Yards tow truck story. Two

927
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:13,320
good looking high school girls suckered me into a parking lot.

928
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:15,639
It almost cost me my car. That's a true story.

929
00:44:15,639 --> 00:44:19,079
That's a teaser there for the next episode. Yeah, the

930
00:44:19,159 --> 00:44:21,800
Nets games get up, you get up at like two o'clock,

931
00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:25,079
you hang out, you get fireworks later. I believe they

932
00:44:25,119 --> 00:44:28,280
beat the Nets last year. They were not so fortunate yesterday.

933
00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:31,119
But yeah, look their pitching staff got rocked yesterday. Obviously,

934
00:44:31,159 --> 00:44:34,079
the Tigers have been good offensive for him here in

935
00:44:34,079 --> 00:44:36,559
recent weeks as well. We'll see if things happen with

936
00:44:36,639 --> 00:44:39,159
the Red Sox rather Tigers played them right before that.

937
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:41,960
I always like to play the highest totals over and

938
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:43,400
this one is one of the highest totals on the

939
00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:45,159
board at ten, so they'd be over a pass from

940
00:44:45,199 --> 00:44:46,960
me in that Nets in Red Sox game at four

941
00:44:46,960 --> 00:44:47,719
o'clock Eastern.

942
00:44:49,079 --> 00:44:51,760
Speaker 1: We've also got Richard Lockhart who says he likes the

943
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:53,000
Marlins money line.

944
00:44:53,079 --> 00:44:57,159
Speaker 5: That's there, Marlin's money line. Marlin's always a tough team

945
00:44:57,199 --> 00:44:59,519
to back, but you know, they have played a little

946
00:44:59,519 --> 00:45:02,199
bit better reef the Brewers though. It's funny. I was

947
00:45:02,199 --> 00:45:04,239
watching the Brewers earlier this week. I was thinking how

948
00:45:04,360 --> 00:45:07,360
every year they're a consistent good team, they just absolutely

949
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:11,000
do nothing come postseason, and you get that feel again here.

950
00:45:11,039 --> 00:45:13,000
I probably would not look to be Fadie Milwaukee in

951
00:45:13,039 --> 00:45:15,239
this one. I feel that the better squad two mediocre

952
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:17,960
pitchers on the mound. Over eight and a half might

953
00:45:17,960 --> 00:45:20,239
be in play here. Nine is such a key number

954
00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:22,519
in Major League Baseball that whenever we have an over

955
00:45:22,599 --> 00:45:23,920
eight and a half, I'm always kind of looking for

956
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:25,559
a reason for an over. I don't think either pitcher

957
00:45:25,599 --> 00:45:26,880
is anything special in this one.

958
00:45:27,880 --> 00:45:31,199
Speaker 1: It is sho heey O Tani's birthday today and he's

959
00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:34,519
on the mound of the Los Angeles Dodgers taking on

960
00:45:34,599 --> 00:45:38,519
the Houston Astros. The Astros ended up crushing the Dodgers

961
00:45:38,599 --> 00:45:42,119
yesterday eighteen to one. Great pitching matchup with from Bravaldez

962
00:45:42,159 --> 00:45:46,280
on the mound against Otani, and he thought on the Dodgers.

963
00:45:46,159 --> 00:45:48,119
Speaker 5: Well, I do think the blowout loss is interesting because

964
00:45:48,119 --> 00:45:50,039
the bullpen was taxed a little bit more than normal,

965
00:45:50,079 --> 00:45:52,000
and you do wonder about how much they're going to

966
00:45:52,119 --> 00:45:53,760
let a Tani go in these games. They are going

967
00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:55,920
to be extra cautions with every single time he's on

968
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:58,400
the mound, and for good reason. He's such an incredible hitter.

969
00:45:59,119 --> 00:46:01,320
You can't risk any kind of injury and he's pitching

970
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:03,480
Obviously he's been limited the past few seasons, didn't pitch

971
00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:05,880
at all last year, so that brings a little bit

972
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:08,440
of an uncertain element to this game. I will say

973
00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:11,280
this about the Astros though. Their offense obviously good yesterday

974
00:46:11,280 --> 00:46:14,000
eighteen runs. That was on twenty hits, But keep in

975
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:15,960
mind they've put up five runs or more in four

976
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:19,199
straight games. They put up seventeen runs in the previous

977
00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:21,960
three games, and they did so on thirty seven hits.

978
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:24,639
So they now have fifty seven hits and they have

979
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:27,719
what is it like, forty five runs the last four games.

980
00:46:28,280 --> 00:46:30,239
Over makes a lot of sense here, but once again,

981
00:46:30,280 --> 00:46:32,760
it's just a very difficult handicap from me. With Otani,

982
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:34,360
I just don't know what we're gonna get from him.

983
00:46:35,000 --> 00:46:37,599
Maybe a bit bounce back spot for the Dodgers. They

984
00:46:37,639 --> 00:46:40,159
had won four straight before that loss, but their offense

985
00:46:40,960 --> 00:46:43,400
seven hits are less than for their last five games,

986
00:46:43,440 --> 00:46:45,360
so be a little careful. The Dodgers maybe not in

987
00:46:45,400 --> 00:46:48,800
as excellent current form as everybody thinks. I'd probably lean

988
00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:51,239
Astros here in this one, just due to that offensive

989
00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:52,360
momentum they have right now.

990
00:46:54,280 --> 00:46:57,440
Speaker 1: That's some other questions. Take it from a lifelong Hubs

991
00:46:57,480 --> 00:46:59,679
Ben when the rig Ley totals double digits, it's an

992
00:47:00,760 --> 00:47:02,679
I love to see it. The wind is blowing out,

993
00:47:02,719 --> 00:47:06,719
but like likely I think I saw Steve any thoughts

994
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:09,199
on the Rocks minus one sixteen from Titan c T.

995
00:47:10,519 --> 00:47:12,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean the only thought on the Rocks are

996
00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:14,039
we fade them or we passing on the game? But

997
00:47:14,159 --> 00:47:17,000
oh no, they're playing the White Sox. One thing about

998
00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:18,599
the White Sox, th Ara, I like to look at

999
00:47:18,679 --> 00:47:21,519
one run losses, especially as we get later in the season,

1000
00:47:22,079 --> 00:47:24,840
and the White Sox have been very unfortunate in one

1001
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:26,920
run games. When I checked about a week ago, they

1002
00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:29,920
were five and twenty this year in games decided by

1003
00:47:29,960 --> 00:47:32,800
one run. Now, granted, bad teams are gonna lose more

1004
00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:35,559
close games bad bullpens, but the White Sox bullpen actually

1005
00:47:35,559 --> 00:47:38,199
is not terrible. It's pretty much mediocre, a middle of

1006
00:47:38,239 --> 00:47:41,800
the pack statistically. So do I dare say the White

1007
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:43,840
Sox could be a slight play on team here in

1008
00:47:43,840 --> 00:47:46,039
the near future. The Rockies are definitely not a play

1009
00:47:46,039 --> 00:47:48,920
on team for me. And whenever a bad team in

1010
00:47:48,960 --> 00:47:50,960
baseball is favorite, you know, we always say we don't

1011
00:47:50,960 --> 00:47:54,920
play bad favorites. It actually works in Baseball, And granted,

1012
00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:57,880
the Rockies are about a dollar fifteen favorite here, but

1013
00:47:57,920 --> 00:47:59,760
I'm gonna buck that and go with the White Sox here.

1014
00:47:59,800 --> 00:48:02,559
I think they're the better team overall. Not two teams

1015
00:48:02,599 --> 00:48:04,400
I've used probably in all this season, but if I

1016
00:48:04,440 --> 00:48:05,000
had to play one of.

1017
00:48:05,000 --> 00:48:06,760
Speaker 4: Them, I'd rather get plus money with Chicago.

1018
00:48:08,199 --> 00:48:10,840
Speaker 1: Do you find value with mid bubble teams that played

1019
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:13,480
gritty like the Marlins Angels on a daily basis.

1020
00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:17,000
Speaker 5: I mean, it's so early in the season. I guess

1021
00:48:17,000 --> 00:48:19,079
we're saying bubble as far as playoffs, but I don't

1022
00:48:19,079 --> 00:48:20,679
think we can read too much into that world. About

1023
00:48:20,679 --> 00:48:22,639
little over halfway through the season, we got about seventy

1024
00:48:22,679 --> 00:48:25,960
games to go. Still, as I mentioned earlier, look at

1025
00:48:25,960 --> 00:48:28,880
current form, you know, the Betty Markets price starting pitchers

1026
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:31,280
heavily still even mainly only got about five or six innings.

1027
00:48:31,800 --> 00:48:33,800
But the offensive players, for the most part, you know,

1028
00:48:33,880 --> 00:48:35,280
seven to eight nine of them are in the lineup

1029
00:48:35,320 --> 00:48:36,880
every day, so you're geting about eighty percent of the

1030
00:48:36,920 --> 00:48:40,039
same lineup every day, and that offensive momentum really does

1031
00:48:40,079 --> 00:48:42,559
ev and flow over five and ten game cycles. And

1032
00:48:42,639 --> 00:48:44,440
you can really just look at something as simple as hits,

1033
00:48:44,480 --> 00:48:46,440
you know, I mentioned how hot the Astros have been.

1034
00:48:46,440 --> 00:48:50,559
They were hot before last night and they broke out again. Meanwhile,

1035
00:48:50,599 --> 00:48:52,360
some other teams, like the Indians, the Guardians who have

1036
00:48:52,440 --> 00:48:54,480
lost eight straight nine of their last ten. Their offenses

1037
00:48:54,519 --> 00:48:56,280
really struggled over the past few weeks. Looks like it

1038
00:48:56,360 --> 00:48:59,000
might be turning the corner. Try to catch teams are

1039
00:48:59,039 --> 00:49:01,000
starting to heat up. Maybe teams have been hot for

1040
00:49:01,000 --> 00:49:02,840
a couple of games that Betty markets haven't caught onto

1041
00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:06,599
because the overall seasonal numbers dictate. These stats dictate the

1042
00:49:06,599 --> 00:49:10,039
lines now after eighty ninety games, including the starting pitcher numbers.

1043
00:49:10,039 --> 00:49:12,519
So I think offensive momentum is something that can help

1044
00:49:12,639 --> 00:49:14,719
you find winners on a daily basis.

1045
00:49:16,159 --> 00:49:20,239
Speaker 1: Royal scored nine yesterday, juicy, but team total under four

1046
00:49:20,239 --> 00:49:24,199
and a half looks tempting. According to Andrew Now.

1047
00:49:24,079 --> 00:49:26,239
Speaker 5: I'd like the Royals team total over today. Actually, I'm

1048
00:49:26,239 --> 00:49:28,320
going to do a free play video for this game

1049
00:49:28,639 --> 00:49:31,039
after we get off here with our man Dan. Alexander

1050
00:49:31,039 --> 00:49:33,159
and I are going to produce a duo double videos,

1051
00:49:33,199 --> 00:49:35,679
So be sure to check out wager Talk TV this

1052
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:38,440
afternoon for some free play videos. But one day it

1053
00:49:38,519 --> 00:49:39,719
jumped out to me I was watching some of that

1054
00:49:39,800 --> 00:49:42,119
Kansas City game last night. I was on MLB Network

1055
00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:44,760
and the Royals had what was at six runs on

1056
00:49:44,840 --> 00:49:47,000
seven hits in the third inning already, And that is

1057
00:49:47,039 --> 00:49:49,079
something that kind of made my short list for today. Hey,

1058
00:49:49,119 --> 00:49:52,079
good offensive current form, like we talk about, and keep

1059
00:49:52,119 --> 00:49:56,159
in mind, Kansas City really struggled offensively middle of June

1060
00:49:56,159 --> 00:49:59,280
on into July. Are they maybe turning the corner? They've

1061
00:49:59,280 --> 00:50:01,679
had ten hits from weren't two of their last four games,

1062
00:50:02,360 --> 00:50:04,639
And you know, I think maybe that offensive momentumums started

1063
00:50:04,639 --> 00:50:06,840
to turn. This is a team that had gone under

1064
00:50:06,920 --> 00:50:09,960
sixth straight and like eight out of eleven until last

1065
00:50:10,039 --> 00:50:12,719
night and they won nine to three. Maybe that's the

1066
00:50:12,760 --> 00:50:14,559
by sign with the Royals here over the next couple

1067
00:50:14,559 --> 00:50:14,920
of weeks.

1068
00:50:17,480 --> 00:50:21,880
Speaker 1: Seattle Pirates under Phillies first five under thoughts.

1069
00:50:22,800 --> 00:50:26,599
Speaker 5: Phillies are always a tough team because offensively kick yeah,

1070
00:50:26,599 --> 00:50:28,400
I mean they're capable of getting hot at any point.

1071
00:50:29,000 --> 00:50:31,480
I'd actually probably clean Mariner's side in that game. That's

1072
00:50:31,480 --> 00:50:33,760
the other video I'm gonna do here, so I'll have

1073
00:50:33,760 --> 00:50:35,719
a deep dive into that game. So the video I'm

1074
00:50:35,760 --> 00:50:39,599
doing is that Pirates Seattle game and also that Kansas

1075
00:50:39,599 --> 00:50:41,559
City game that we just talked about against Arizona, so

1076
00:50:41,559 --> 00:50:43,039
I'll have a deep dive there. We'll look a little

1077
00:50:43,039 --> 00:50:45,599
bit at this Phillies game against the Reds. Reds have

1078
00:50:45,639 --> 00:50:48,519
been a good team this year betting wise, definitely flying

1079
00:50:48,519 --> 00:50:50,079
a little bit under the raider. I haven't used them

1080
00:50:50,119 --> 00:50:52,760
quite as much as I probably should have. And as

1081
00:50:52,760 --> 00:50:55,239
far as the current form of these two teams, we

1082
00:50:55,239 --> 00:50:59,280
look at Cincinnati twenty three hits, seventeen runs the last

1083
00:50:59,280 --> 00:51:02,880
two games, Boston. Now at Philly, they've won two straight.

1084
00:51:02,920 --> 00:51:05,719
They've won three of their last five. Phillies meanwhile, being

1085
00:51:05,760 --> 00:51:08,559
kind of alternating wins and losses for the last several weeks.

1086
00:51:09,119 --> 00:51:11,039
They had that run against Houston, those three games at

1087
00:51:11,039 --> 00:51:13,719
Houston where they scored one total run. Then they go

1088
00:51:13,760 --> 00:51:16,880
to Atlanta they score thirteen on seventeen hits, and then

1089
00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:18,760
they score two or less than the next two games.

1090
00:51:18,800 --> 00:51:21,159
So once again, that's why I'm talking about current form. Offensively,

1091
00:51:21,159 --> 00:51:23,320
you don't just look at one game, because any pitcher

1092
00:51:23,719 --> 00:51:25,039
can have a bad out. You kind of want to

1093
00:51:25,039 --> 00:51:27,800
look at a three, like five game sample. It does

1094
00:51:27,840 --> 00:51:30,400
look like Philly is starting to trend up, though they've

1095
00:51:30,440 --> 00:51:32,440
had four runs or more now in four straight games,

1096
00:51:32,440 --> 00:51:35,119
eleven runs on twenty four hits the last two days.

1097
00:51:35,840 --> 00:51:37,119
I kind of like the over in this one. I

1098
00:51:37,159 --> 00:51:39,239
think maybe it's the buy side with Philly going forward.

1099
00:51:39,280 --> 00:51:41,800
And don't say that too loud, Dan Alexander's going to

1100
00:51:41,840 --> 00:51:42,599
get extra excited.

1101
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:46,559
Speaker 1: Sean Michael also has Guardians team total under three and

1102
00:51:46,599 --> 00:51:51,119
a half with the offense against miz Do you agree, Yeah.

1103
00:51:50,920 --> 00:51:53,480
Speaker 5: I mean I think mis actually might get hit, just

1104
00:51:53,480 --> 00:51:56,039
because the current Guardian lineup, the Cleveland lineup today that's

1105
00:51:56,079 --> 00:51:59,440
batting has over a career three hundred average against myes.

1106
00:52:00,000 --> 00:52:02,679
As I said earlier, Cleveland in terrible current form otherwise

1107
00:52:02,719 --> 00:52:06,800
eight straight losses. This is a team that's lost nine

1108
00:52:06,800 --> 00:52:09,480
of their last ten games, and it's really coincided with

1109
00:52:09,519 --> 00:52:12,360
the offense be nice cold. So the question is are

1110
00:52:12,400 --> 00:52:14,920
they starting to turn the corner? I don't know. I mean,

1111
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:16,519
they had four runs a couple of games ago and

1112
00:52:16,559 --> 00:52:18,880
they filed it up with one run total last two games.

1113
00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:21,639
So it'd be Detroit or passed for me on the side.

1114
00:52:21,639 --> 00:52:25,280
Speaker 1: In that one, I think someone asked somewhere if there's

1115
00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:27,800
a whole Yeah, Ian Gomez, do you do home run

1116
00:52:27,840 --> 00:52:30,199
props at all, I don't like home run props.

1117
00:52:30,480 --> 00:52:33,079
Speaker 5: I don't mess a lot with MLB props in general.

1118
00:52:33,360 --> 00:52:36,159
One thing, Tokyo Brandon, who's a very good baseball handicappers,

1119
00:52:36,199 --> 00:52:39,400
you know, former MLB scout has I've heard him say before, Aaron,

1120
00:52:39,440 --> 00:52:41,079
I'm sure you have as well as that he never

1121
00:52:42,000 --> 00:52:44,000
plays the home run well, he never plays the Yes

1122
00:52:44,079 --> 00:52:46,320
home run props. I guess that's kind of a general question,

1123
00:52:46,360 --> 00:52:47,800
but I assume we're talking about will they hit a

1124
00:52:47,840 --> 00:52:51,280
home run? And Tokyo says like even the best players

1125
00:52:51,320 --> 00:52:55,000
ever like Otani are like what maybe one out of six?

1126
00:52:55,079 --> 00:52:56,840
I forget what the math is, and he'll get priced

1127
00:52:56,880 --> 00:52:58,480
at well like what three to one, four to one,

1128
00:52:59,360 --> 00:53:02,320
And so just the ath alone doesn't work there. And

1129
00:53:02,320 --> 00:53:04,039
I'll go back to something Teddy's. I know we don't

1130
00:53:04,039 --> 00:53:05,719
have a lot of time, but the NFL wins report

1131
00:53:05,760 --> 00:53:09,039
stuff had Teddy was actually about, actually very correct about

1132
00:53:09,159 --> 00:53:11,719
NFL futures and why I don't play Super Bowl if

1133
00:53:11,719 --> 00:53:13,960
you now over under win totals are not the same

1134
00:53:14,000 --> 00:53:16,320
as futures in my opinion, because it's a two way bet.

1135
00:53:16,760 --> 00:53:19,559
The problem with most future bets, including like home run props,

1136
00:53:20,039 --> 00:53:21,719
is that it's a one way bet. It's a yes

1137
00:53:21,760 --> 00:53:24,000
bet at plus money. Will they win the Super Bowl? Yes,

1138
00:53:24,039 --> 00:53:25,760
plus four hundred. They don't let you take the no

1139
00:53:26,440 --> 00:53:29,199
at minus five hundred. Some sportsbooks do, but most don't,

1140
00:53:29,760 --> 00:53:31,519
So as a rule of thumb, unless you're getting a

1141
00:53:31,519 --> 00:53:34,360
two way market, you're probably getting screwed pretty bad on

1142
00:53:34,400 --> 00:53:36,519
the payout. And the other thing I'll mention too about

1143
00:53:36,519 --> 00:53:38,199
season wins in the NFL before I forget, is that

1144
00:53:38,239 --> 00:53:41,360
you talked about injuries and those concerns. The under always

1145
00:53:41,400 --> 00:53:43,440
helps you, So in general, I always defer to the

1146
00:53:43,559 --> 00:53:46,480
under with season wins in any sport because everything's kind

1147
00:53:46,480 --> 00:53:48,119
of priced to how it should play out, and if

1148
00:53:48,119 --> 00:53:50,440
you get a key injury, especially to a quarterback, it's

1149
00:53:50,480 --> 00:53:52,880
going to definitely help the under, whereas if you have

1150
00:53:52,920 --> 00:53:54,559
the over, it's obviously going to hurt you a lot more.

1151
00:53:55,519 --> 00:53:58,559
Speaker 1: Steve Merrill, he comes on with us most of these Saturdays,

1152
00:53:58,639 --> 00:54:00,880
talks great stuff on Major League Well what are you

1153
00:54:00,920 --> 00:54:01,599
promoting today?

1154
00:54:02,239 --> 00:54:05,039
Speaker 5: I think I might be hosting next week aarro you are.

1155
00:54:05,320 --> 00:54:08,840
Speaker 1: You want to assignment next weekend? Then I think someone

1156
00:54:08,840 --> 00:54:12,239
else you might be hosting the last weekend of July

1157
00:54:12,320 --> 00:54:15,360
because Hurricane Kelly is coming to New York, and I

1158
00:54:15,400 --> 00:54:17,119
am not dumb enough to do this show on a

1159
00:54:17,199 --> 00:54:20,199
day that Kelly is here. But yes, next weekend it

1160
00:54:20,239 --> 00:54:22,760
will be Steve hosting here on Last Call. I have

1161
00:54:22,840 --> 00:54:25,800
some family stuff to tend to. But anything else you

1162
00:54:25,840 --> 00:54:26,840
got going on, well.

1163
00:54:26,679 --> 00:54:28,280
Speaker 5: First of all, I think you and Kelly should host

1164
00:54:28,280 --> 00:54:30,760
together that day. That would be fantastic.

1165
00:54:30,800 --> 00:54:33,719
Speaker 1: Hammread at Yankee Stadium by the time this show probably starts.

1166
00:54:33,800 --> 00:54:36,480
Speaker 5: Then you guys can do it live from Yankee Stadium.

1167
00:54:36,480 --> 00:54:38,039
I mean that might break an all time record if

1168
00:54:38,079 --> 00:54:40,400
we promote that. Right, you guys could tag each other ring.

1169
00:54:40,239 --> 00:54:42,360
Speaker 1: Going live and doing something. I don't know what.

1170
00:54:43,280 --> 00:54:44,719
Speaker 5: One does it, the other one rest, the other one

1171
00:54:44,760 --> 00:54:45,679
tags the other one back again.

1172
00:54:45,760 --> 00:54:48,800
Speaker 1: You know. One takes a shot, the next one does

1173
00:54:48,840 --> 00:54:50,599
the show. The next one takes a shot. Yeah, it's

1174
00:54:50,599 --> 00:54:51,840
going to be a take a quick nap.

1175
00:54:51,840 --> 00:54:53,079
Speaker 5: The other one wakes up, does.

1176
00:54:52,880 --> 00:54:58,599
Speaker 1: A segment that she has a forty chance of making

1177
00:54:58,639 --> 00:55:01,679
her flight on Sunday she didn't make it last year.

1178
00:55:01,800 --> 00:55:06,519
For anyone that's looking to handicap afterwards, I got you Sunday. Yeah,

1179
00:55:06,960 --> 00:55:08,000
we go to the game Saturday.

1180
00:55:08,159 --> 00:55:09,079
Speaker 5: Got you the way home?

1181
00:55:09,920 --> 00:55:12,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, chance of making it.

1182
00:55:12,519 --> 00:55:14,920
Speaker 5: That's a two way market. So we got a yes. No,

1183
00:55:15,000 --> 00:55:17,719
that's a two way market. That's an acceptable bet. Ill

1184
00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:19,280
I will take the yes on that she'll make the

1185
00:55:19,360 --> 00:55:21,119
damn flight. She's a veteran, she knows how to do

1186
00:55:21,159 --> 00:55:22,199
these things. She'll learn.

1187
00:55:22,440 --> 00:55:24,639
Speaker 1: Look at you, Yes, I'm gonna put the yes at

1188
00:55:24,920 --> 00:55:26,800
plus one twenty.

1189
00:55:27,079 --> 00:55:28,639
Speaker 5: I need to know what side you're betting on, because

1190
00:55:28,639 --> 00:55:30,519
if you bet to know, you could definitely make sure

1191
00:55:30,559 --> 00:55:32,800
that she does not make that flight on Sunday. That's

1192
00:55:32,800 --> 00:55:34,480
the kind of inside information.

1193
00:55:34,719 --> 00:55:36,480
Speaker 1: We need to have from No, I can't make her

1194
00:55:36,519 --> 00:55:39,079
do anything. Unfortunately, last year she laid in my bed

1195
00:55:39,119 --> 00:55:42,119
and said, can I just stay one more day? I

1196
00:55:42,119 --> 00:55:44,320
don't think I can make it? And I looked at

1197
00:55:44,320 --> 00:55:46,840
her and said, that's fine, but I work tomorrow, so

1198
00:55:46,880 --> 00:55:49,000
you have to be out the door for the early flight.

1199
00:55:49,039 --> 00:55:52,119
And she said, no problem. So listen, she's got to

1200
00:55:52,159 --> 00:55:53,960
do what she's got to do. If I can't make

1201
00:55:54,000 --> 00:55:55,960
the girl go on, she has a fear of flying.

1202
00:55:56,000 --> 00:55:57,480
For a girl that flies all the time, she's a.

1203
00:55:57,400 --> 00:55:57,719
Speaker 4: Fear of you.

1204
00:55:57,960 --> 00:56:00,199
Speaker 5: Oh, Kelly has a fear of flying.

1205
00:56:00,559 --> 00:56:03,320
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, it's bad. And I if I let her

1206
00:56:03,360 --> 00:56:06,039
get on that flight hungover. I would have been getting

1207
00:56:06,039 --> 00:56:08,400
it worse on the texting end. She was better off

1208
00:56:08,440 --> 00:56:09,559
just sleeping more.

1209
00:56:09,880 --> 00:56:13,440
Speaker 5: Wow, I learned something every day Hurricane Kelly. At first

1210
00:56:13,480 --> 00:56:15,119
second there, I was like, how do you know hurricanes

1211
00:56:15,159 --> 00:56:17,320
coming in three weeks? Honestly thought there was a Florida

1212
00:56:17,400 --> 00:56:19,880
hurricane coming for a second and didn't rose it was

1213
00:56:19,960 --> 00:56:23,320
Kelly Stewart, Vegas Las Vegas insider Kelly Stewart. Yeah, I've

1214
00:56:23,320 --> 00:56:26,679
got special promotion for everybody seven days for sixty nine

1215
00:56:26,760 --> 00:56:28,760
the fourth of July. Celebrate because like Gariel said, it

1216
00:56:28,800 --> 00:56:31,320
is the fourth of July weekend. It ain't over till

1217
00:56:31,320 --> 00:56:33,960
it's over. Look at all those pretty faces. There's even

1218
00:56:33,960 --> 00:56:36,199
a Canadian on there, Andrew McGuinness. We still let you

1219
00:56:36,199 --> 00:56:38,400
get sixty nine dollars for seven days with the Canadians

1220
00:56:38,400 --> 00:56:41,719
as well. But seriously, any cap you'd like multiple uses

1221
00:56:41,840 --> 00:56:44,719
lock in my seven days of MLB action, Get one

1222
00:56:44,760 --> 00:56:47,079
of these other guys and get some golf and some hockey,

1223
00:56:47,199 --> 00:56:51,280
or there's no hockey soccer soccer without the sticks. Hockey

1224
00:56:51,280 --> 00:56:53,719
without the sticks is called soccer. Lots of other sports

1225
00:56:53,719 --> 00:56:55,280
going on. He could also make it a seven day

1226
00:56:55,280 --> 00:56:57,400
Flex Pass in which you can jump around and do

1227
00:56:57,440 --> 00:56:59,039
a different cap for every day. So once again seven

1228
00:56:59,079 --> 00:57:02,320
days all access sixty nine. That's an instant thirty percent

1229
00:57:02,400 --> 00:57:05,159
discount off the normal rate and there's no promo codead now.

1230
00:57:05,199 --> 00:57:07,559
By the way, check out my daily free plays. I

1231
00:57:07,639 --> 00:57:09,760
have won six of my last seven free plays which

1232
00:57:09,760 --> 00:57:11,480
are last cuts from the best bet cards, so it

1233
00:57:11,559 --> 00:57:13,679
kind of pisses me off, but the best bets are

1234
00:57:13,679 --> 00:57:15,880
at an over sixty percent this week as well. I

1235
00:57:15,920 --> 00:57:18,400
do have a bonus free play in Major League Baseball

1236
00:57:18,440 --> 00:57:21,480
for tonight on my page right now Steve Merrill wager

1237
00:57:21,559 --> 00:57:23,400
talk dot com, along with two best bets and get

1238
00:57:23,440 --> 00:57:29,000
there quicker with shortcut WT dot buzz slash sm.

1239
00:57:28,400 --> 00:57:30,960
Speaker 1: Steve Merrill, You're the best. Thanks as always for coming

1240
00:57:31,000 --> 00:57:32,960
on here on the last Saturday. Make sure to check

1241
00:57:33,039 --> 00:57:36,079
them out next week hosting here on Last Call for

1242
00:57:36,159 --> 00:57:39,440
Scott c. In the chat you said about Summer League NBA.

1243
00:57:39,599 --> 00:57:42,159
Yanny the Greek came on earlier on the show and

1244
00:57:42,239 --> 00:57:45,159
gave out some Summer league sharp action. You could go

1245
00:57:45,280 --> 00:57:47,079
back at the beginning of the show. Check out our

1246
00:57:47,119 --> 00:57:49,559
YouTube page on wager Talk and you could check out

1247
00:57:49,559 --> 00:57:52,199
the beginning of the show here on last Call. Togyo

1248
00:57:52,239 --> 00:57:54,559
Brandon is coming up next, so make sure to check

1249
00:57:54,559 --> 00:57:57,159
out his show. He'll talk all things major League baseball.

1250
00:57:57,199 --> 00:58:00,360
I'm sure for me the prop queenera Epstein, I will

1251
00:58:00,360 --> 00:58:03,119
give you one last parting wish. Dan and I are

1252
00:58:03,199 --> 00:58:05,440
on the East in Premier Lacrosse starting at one pm

1253
00:58:05,480 --> 00:58:07,920
Eastern time, they're All Star game. We also like the

1254
00:58:07,960 --> 00:58:10,840
over because well, first off with the East, the West

1255
00:58:11,280 --> 00:58:14,559
very banged up and their goalie he's out, so that's

1256
00:58:14,559 --> 00:58:16,880
a big problem. Which is also why we are going

1257
00:58:16,960 --> 00:58:20,320
to go with the over. Because Atlanta twenty seven last year,

1258
00:58:20,400 --> 00:58:22,360
which was obviously low, and you're seeing this total go

1259
00:58:22,400 --> 00:58:23,920
from thirty three and a half to thirty four and

1260
00:58:24,199 --> 00:58:27,639
a half last year. This is an overreaction to it.

1261
00:58:28,440 --> 00:58:31,880
The last three years before last season, forty plus were

1262
00:58:31,920 --> 00:58:34,880
scored in the Premier Lacrosse All Star Game that's coming

1263
00:58:34,960 --> 00:58:37,239
up at one pm. You could go bet that as well.

1264
00:58:37,760 --> 00:58:40,480
Major League Baseball logan Web under twenty and a half outs.

1265
00:58:40,519 --> 00:58:42,760
This number is way too high for a team averaging

1266
00:58:43,159 --> 00:58:46,760
eighteen outs when any kind of righty faces. The Athletics

1267
00:58:47,000 --> 00:58:49,760
Web had eight inings that he went last start against

1268
00:58:49,760 --> 00:58:51,719
the a's. I never liked to bet the same thing

1269
00:58:51,760 --> 00:58:55,760
that happened twice. He's projected Web to go about eighteen outs,

1270
00:58:55,800 --> 00:58:58,320
so I would take the underhear of twenty and a

1271
00:58:58,320 --> 00:59:01,320
half outs for Logan Web on the road. Nonetheless, way

1272
00:59:01,320 --> 00:59:04,199
too much of an overreaction. If you got Carlos Radon

1273
00:59:04,320 --> 00:59:05,760
under six and a half k's in at the start

1274
00:59:05,800 --> 00:59:08,239
of the show, congratulations that number is now down to

1275
00:59:08,320 --> 00:59:10,519
five and a half everywhere else. So I did a

1276
00:59:10,599 --> 00:59:12,559
nice little SGP which you could check out on my

1277
00:59:12,599 --> 00:59:16,639
picket sports page at Ariel Epstein. I did a SGP

1278
00:59:16,800 --> 00:59:19,679
for the Subway series because of what Yanni said. Actually,

1279
00:59:19,719 --> 00:59:22,719
so I included something Yanni gave out to something that

1280
00:59:22,800 --> 00:59:25,280
I liked today in the props market and combining the

1281
00:59:25,360 --> 00:59:28,880
two for a plus one forty ish payout. So we'll

1282
00:59:28,880 --> 00:59:30,519
see or plus one eighty plus one forty. I have

1283
00:59:30,519 --> 00:59:33,159
to go double check that anyway, all my players for

1284
00:59:33,199 --> 00:59:35,880
today on picket Sports or the prop Queen dot com newsletter,

1285
00:59:35,880 --> 00:59:37,760
I gave out a bunch of props there. Gonn to

1286
00:59:37,800 --> 00:59:40,320
dive into a little WNBA as well, but I got

1287
00:59:40,320 --> 00:59:41,800
some Major League Baseball out there.

1288
00:59:42,360 --> 00:59:42,840
Speaker 4: Of course.

1289
00:59:43,320 --> 00:59:46,320
Speaker 1: Last Call Saturday you guys are awesome. Everyone who tuned

1290
00:59:46,320 --> 00:59:49,960
into the chat like, subscribe, comment, everything of the above.

1291
00:59:50,320 --> 00:59:53,920
Dan behind the scenes, always crushing it. We absolutely love you.

1292
00:59:54,000 --> 00:59:54,199
Speaker 4: I know.

1293
00:59:54,239 --> 00:59:57,119
Speaker 1: He just planned his honeymoon to Hawaii, so when he's gone,

1294
00:59:57,199 --> 01:00:01,400
remind me to take a vacation because I hate anything

1295
01:00:01,400 --> 01:00:04,800
without Dan. Just kidding. Uh, thank you guys for tuning in.

1296
01:00:04,920 --> 01:00:06,599
We will see you next week. Steve Merrell is gonna

1297
01:00:06,599 --> 01:00:08,719
be hosting, and then I'll be back the week after that.

1298
01:00:08,760 --> 01:00:15,800
Good luck with your rests today. M hm hmm.