Speaker 1: What's going on?
Speaker 2: Everybody.
Speaker 1: Welcome to the very festive edition of the Blitz. As
we are talking the bulls this week, a lot of them.
If you have questions, how about all these bowl games
this week? When you've come to the right place, if
you're watching us live, drop those comments down below. We'll
get to them. We've got four of the bigger bowl
games for this Saturday that we'll be opening up by
breaking down best bets on their way as well. We'll
try to cover as much of these games as we
can here. To help me do so, of course, to
the finest at wager talk dot Com, Steve Merrick and
as always, Ross the Boss Benjamin Steve subbing in for
Ralph Michaels this week. Glad to have you again, Steve,
and guys, what do you say? We start with two
teams that, needless to say, did not anticipate playing in
the Pinstripe Bowl back in August. I think these teams
had national title ass let alone college football asperations, national
title aspirations, Penn State and Clemson. They are playing at
Yankee Stadium twelve pm Eastern on Saturday, ABC. As you
would expect after the disappointing regular seasons for these two teams,
there are going to be plenty of opt outs and
a general lack of motivation as well. Of course, you
got the interim head coach for Penn State, Terry Smith.
In addition to the players opting out for the Allons,
most notable Witch is running back Nicholas Singleton. Smith indicated
several starters may not play deep into this game. As
for Clemson, seven of the top twelve defenders on defense
five and the top twelve players on offense in terms
of staff count will not play. Quarterback Kde Clubnicky Wilbow
and Ross. That is I guess why Clemson is out
to a three point favorite. Here, Kate Clubnick going to
be on the field. What do you make of this
game however?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's just a matter who's more motivated, right,
because I think both schools will travel well to this
game year. You know, you get an opportunity from Clemson
and Penn State to make a trip to Yankee Stadium,
iconic stadium in downtown Brooklyn, and I think that edge
will be pretty even.
Speaker 4: However, I think when you look at.
Speaker 3: The players that have opted out, whether or be for
the NFL Draft or the transfer portal. When you look
at both the players on both sides, I think the
productivity loss clearly lies with Penn State. They lost a
lot of productivity to the players that have either opted
out or a transfer port Also, you know, you can't
make light of it at this time of year. The
continuity and coaching staff, BABEO. Sweeney's still there, even though
he came under a lot of heat this year. And
I think Clemson will be the more motivated team. Yeah,
Penn State finished strong, winning three in a row, but
look who they beat. I mean Nebraska, who fell off
a cliff at the end of the year, Michigan State,
who's absolutely brutal, and Rutgers they only beat them forty
to thirty six and gave up over five hundred yards.
Speaker 4: And they had contest well.
Speaker 3: Clemson finished four and oh straight up and three and
one against the spread, so it's sort of Selvageter season
considering they were three and five after eight games. I
like Clemson the way they've finished the season against who
they finished against a lot better than Penn State's three
and zero, which is less impressive when when considering the
level of competition. Small lean here, you know, again, very
small lead Clemson minus three over Penn State.
Speaker 1: Steve, I guess it's the new normal. Two teams that honestly,
I probably would have preferred to fade. So it kind
of sucks their match up against each other because due
to the lack of motivation. So what do you think here?
I mean, this is you know, this isn't gonna be
the first time we talk about a potentially unmotivated Bowl team,
but we do have two of them here in the
Pinstripe Bowl, noon Eastern on Saturday. What are you thinking
for this game?
Speaker 2: Yeah, when you have two umtivated sides, let's just look
at the total. By the way, the totals really move
nothing forty eight and a half. It's still forty eight
and a half in most spots. And forty seven and
forty eight are both key numbers. Forty nine and fifty
are what we call dead numbers. So at forty eight
and a half all the way up to fifty and
a half, fifty one is really the next key number.
So we'll see if this settles a little bit. I
do see a few forty eight out there, So if
you're going to play the over, maybe wait a little
bit and try to get a forty eight. But I
think this could be a higher scoring game than expect.
And the reason I say that is because when you
have two teams with uncertainty, lack of motivation, opt outs
and what stuff like we talk about in basketball, becomes
a street ball game, right. And when it's like that
in basketball, everyone's trying to pad their stats. It's a
lot of offense no defense. I think we get the
same thing in these bowl games in which teams don't
really necessarily care. I think the defense, the intensity lacks
on the defensive side, and we offer and get more
points than you would expect. And you know, with the
long layoff here in recent years we've seen that sometimes
work good and bad. If teams can't run the ball,
they struggle. But you look at these two attacks, especially
Penn State when they lose their quarterback. You know, halfway
through the season they have to run more. They're avage
almost one hundred and eighty rushing yards five yards to
carry this season and they're taking on a Climpson run
d That's been good. But once again, if the intensity
isn't there, if the focus isn't there on defense, these
two teams have been good statistically defensively, I don't think
it'll be as strong, and they both give up about
twenty one points a game. Both offenses average twenty nine
to thirty one on the season. This is a fairly
low total in my opinion at forty eight and a half,
especially if it drops down to forty eight or less
for two teams that really, as we've stated, do not
have much to play for.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there you go, and guys. Something else to keep
in mind here as I look at this outstanding panel
we've got here on the Blitz is as these games
get near, Steve Ross and I combined are going to
sleep about six hours in the month of December because
the three of us are going to basically we're not
only were doing this show, but and we're giving out plays,
but we're gonna be We're gonna be doing other standalone
videos here on the way to talk to YouTube channel.
Steve I believe is going for the gold medal by
previewing every Bowl game. I mean, I don't know what
bet you, Lusty, but thank you to Steve. I've got
one going up on the go above Sports Bowl I
know which will be coming up later this week, and
I know Ross is in there. He's previewing games as well.
I mentioned the comments if you're watching live, guys, all
you in the chat. I'm gonna take this one right here.
I see a lot of people are talking about the
Toledo Louisville game, which starts here in just a little bit.
Tucker Gleeson is out for Toledo. I assume that that
was announced within the hour. I assume that's why we're
seeing the line move towards Louisville. Toledo, by the way,
their secondary is absolutely decimated. That that's the strength of
the defense. And I think three of the starters aren't
playing in the second. But Louisville's got some key opouts too.
I see a lot of people saying, I don't know
about laying this number with Louisville. I don't agree that
they're missing a lot of key players on offense. Toledo
also dealing with an interim coaching staff. And yes, thank
you Joe Jay Boff in the house. Thank you for
the jacket. I liked how it looked on my complexion
when I did Wager Talk today, so I kept it
for the show. All right, that is the early game
for today. We talked about the pin strike bullpen Stateton
Clemson Again. Guys, check back later in the week on
the wage of Talk YouTube channel. A ton of free content,
So why don't you see brand and subscribe?
Speaker 3: Yes, Ross, Yes, I have a deep dive solo video
on this game, that game that you just mentioned on
wager Talk TV as we speak. So for those of
you who want to detail the analysis and free picking
that game, I have it for you.
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, Bron, I'll say real quick on that game
on that line has gotten pricey. My projection, all things
equal this year would have been Louisville like five. But
as you said, Toledo's really beat up defensively, missing guys.
But what jumped out to me, you know when I
was doing a video on that as well, Ross, is
the head to head between the two common opponents. Toledo
gave up twelve points per game this season, but they
gave up a lot more than that against Kentucky and
Bowling Green lost both games outright, gave up like seventy
some points combined, and Louisgo beat both of those teams,
including forty one in their last game. You know, so
you don't want to overreact to common opponents too much.
But that thought that was pretty enlightening and tells you
that Louisgo is a better team. The question is is
there value now that has crossed over that key number
of ten to eleven the floodgates have opened.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Additionally, Toledo's defensive coordinator, who's done such a terrific job
since he's been there, he jumped ship to go to
Syracuse well before Jason Kandall decided to move on, So
you know, it's yeah, I don't think it's as heavy
a number as people think with Louisville when you considered
the level of competition is some of the things that
Steve just brought up.
Speaker 2: Brian, I gotta ask you real quick. You're a MAC guy, yes,
leaving Toledo to go to Yukon. Correct. I thought that
seemed a little strange when I first saw it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the MAC is Yeah, I mean the Mac. Look,
it's it's it's probably it's on its way right now
to being the weakest of the group of five conferences.
So I don't know, maybe Candle just I actually just
think Candle kind of needed a refresh, To be honest
with you, I thought he'd taken the Toledo program as
far as he could. I mean, the narrative was out
there on Toledo with Candle. This is a team obviously,
I have Toledo was the best team in.
Speaker 2: The MAC this year.
Speaker 1: To know, they didn't make the conference championship game, but
they always drop a game or two. Is a double
digit favorite, so we shall see, you know, to be
honest with you, CON's a step up from Toledo. So
there you have it, all right, Let's go to a
next game, the next game on Saturday. Let's go back
to our rundown here, guys, keep those questions coming in
the chat. I know there's some games here. Those of
you watching the show live, there are some games here
on Tuesday. We are recording earlier this week so we
can get as much cover as many of these games
as possible. But three point thirty Eastern on ABC. Next
in our rundown, guys, the Pop Tarts Bowl, Georgia Tech
versus b YU. In addition to giving America what it
really wants to see at being a Pop Tart mascot
coming out of a fake toaster, this should be one
of the better Bowl games in all serious diskuis I
not a ton of opt outs. These are two teams
I think want to that both want to be there.
It's gonna be a high profile game. People were into
the Pop Dart Bowl last year again that people love
seeing a pop Dart maskot come out of a toaster.
My big take on this, I think there's gonna be
point plenty of points in this game. I think the
defenses are gonna have trouble slow and the respective offenses down.
Big picture something that I just want to make that
I think that I just want to throw out there.
Georgia Tech oc Buster Faulkner. He's left for Florida. Big
picture for this program, that is a significant loss for
this Georgia Tech. They are going to miss Buster Faulkner
in the years to come. But as for the Pop
Tarts Bowl, Ross, what is your take on this one?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just think BYU is the more physical team
in this matchup. I mean, you know, that's hard to
say when you have a head coach at Georgia.
Speaker 4: Tech like Brent Key, former offensive lineman.
Speaker 3: But if you look at their whole body of work
this year and especially down the final stretch of a season,
look Byus eleven and two. You know, there are only
two losses game against Texas Tech, row against everybody else,
and in those two losses against Texas Tech, they were
a minus seven turnover margin. In the rest of their
games they were plus thirteen. So Georgia Tech. You know,
I was really high on them before the season started.
As a matter of fact, in my preseason preview I
did with Teddy, I picked them to win the ACC
and it was looking pretty good at one point, guys,
you know, they were eight to zero and then they
felt the wheels fell off.
Speaker 4: They lost three in their last four. Their defense wasn't
very good.
Speaker 3: I mean, the only win in that four game sequence
to end the year was against Boston College thirty six
thirty four, and they allowed over five hundred yards of
offense to a two to ten Boston College team. So
I'm not crazy about the way Texas Tech finished. I
think BYU is firing away the better team in this matchup,
and with all things being equal, because both, like you said, Brian,
both seem like they're virtually intact in terms of the
transfer portal in OPTOS, there's doesn't seem to be any
So I'm.
Speaker 4: Going to take BYU here, I like BYU rut a
four and a half.
Speaker 1: Well, let's a vote for Brigham Young Steve. Would you
concur with that? Georgia Tech's defense was something that was
is generally not very good. I don't know how they
turned in that performance they did against Georgia in the
regular season finale. That was one of the big head
scratchers for me down the stretch at least. What is
your take here on the pop Tarts ball?
Speaker 2: Yeah, Brian, you mentioned the over Ross Minson BYU. I
would concur with both of you, the great state senators
from Ohio and New York in this one. And I
will say it's a little bit of a hedge. By
the way, if you play BYU and the over, I
think it worse. And I mean there's no guarantees it worse.
You probably go one and one, maybe two and oh.
And the reason I say that is because we talked
about not a lot of opt outs for either team.
But I think the one uncertainty in this Bowl game
is Georgia Tech's offensive staff. As you said, they lost
the oc Chris Winky, I believe might be calling the
plays Florida State quarterback Georgia Tech does run the ball well,
powerful rush attack, which when you have a long layoff
like this, I think it's nice to see teams be
able to run because the precision passing, as I said earlier,
sometimes affected. But BYU has the much better run defense.
They still run for almost five yards to carry. And
the reason I say it's a little bit of a
hedge with BYU and the OVER. I do like the
OVER in this game, but if we don't get there,
if it's a low scoring game, then you really got
to like BYU. They have a substantial defensive edge in
this game. These are both two top thirty offenses in
my ratings, but I've got BYU substantially better defensively, and
you can the stats bear that out as well. Georgia
Tech gave up on a six yards per play this year.
BYU on the season barely gave up five yards per play.
So BYU and the OVER and I think it worse.
You probably split in go one and one maybe a
two to zer, which would be nice on Saturday pop
Tarts ball. By the way, Brian, you know, we talked
last week about Missouri State and Delaware getting the exemptions
to get in, and my first thought was I wonder
which one got in because Notre Dame opted out. Turns
out neither one of them. It's Georgia Tech got into
the pop Tarts Bowl. That's right, because Notre Dame opted
out well, although they would have been bowling anyway, I guess,
and Kansas State and Iowa State not going to the
bulls is actually why Missouri State and Delaware got in,
and I guess Notre Dame probably opened the spot for
one of them. But yeah, Georgia Tech would not have
been in this bowl very well. Could have been a
I guess Notre Dame BYU matchup, which would have been
very incisive coming out of the toaster.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and correct me if those teams just signed an
agreement to play, I believe if did I see that correctly?
Notre Dame in USC no longer playing. We see some
comments in the chat coming in BYU and Armed Forces.
That was in response to no one takes balls as
serious as BYU does. You guys hit on that a
little bit. Ago Ross and his breakdown as far as
the Armed Forces angle goes, and the Military Academy's treating bowls. Seriously,
stay tuned, guys. I know I'm gonna have a best
bet on the Yukon Army matchup later in the show.
I I think you probably know where going there. But
before we get to that, let's talk more power for
schools in bowl games on Saturday, Virginia and Missouri in
the Gator Bowl. The Gator Bowl seems to have fallen
down the pecking order. Guys, correct me if I'm wrong.
This needs to be like a New Year's Date bowl game,
and now it's being played on the Saturday after Christmas.
Virginia has taken money here against Missouri. It's based on
the news Missouri quarterback bo bo Perbula is not playing
back up Matt Zalars, who did start three games during
the season, will be getting the starting nod instead. You
look at the wedge talk on screen. Guys, Virginia's down
to plus four after opening plus seven. Part of me
thoughts and see if I'll go to you first, being
the senator from Virginia. But my concern originally was taking
the points with Virginia. They're kind of in a letdown,
so like they were that close to the college football playoff,
they were one win away. They lose in heartbreaking fashion.
The Conference championship to Duke. But as I did, a
more of a deep dive into Virginia in bowls. This
is a program that has just one bowl win in
the last fifteen years, so they might be pretty You know,
Missouri's been in some big bowl games the last couple
of years. I remember they beat Ohio State in a
bowl game. I was on misary actually a run up
with a terrible closing line value in that game, but
it didn't matter. Nevertheless, Virginia they more motivated side here, Steve,
you think I.
Speaker 2: Don't know, I haven't dug into it too deep. I will.
I'm gonna be doing a video for every Saturday game
in a couple of days, and I'll kind of try
to get it feel locally here if they want to
be there or not. My gut instinct those what you
said initially, Brian is that this is a pretty big blow.
This is a team that was favored against Duke down
in Charlotte a few weeks ago, and all they had
to do was be the Duke team who they had
routed a few weeks earlier on the road, and they're
in the playoffs. So I can't imagine this isn't a
little bit of a letdown spot just on pay per form.
Whether they rally or not, we'll see. And it is
a because defensively they are pretty good this year. As
I said earlier at the beginning of the show, when
teams aren't focused, I fear that that shows on the
defensive side of the ball. We have seen some sharp money.
I don't know if it's sharp. It's a little bit
of everything. On the under. You mentioned the quarterback out
for Missouri. That's obviously a big reason why this line's
gone from seven down to four. And while the total
has dropped from fifty and a half down to forty five,
not a lot of value left now at forty five,
but the under does make sense. I rate both defenses
as the stronger units on the field, and the other
thing I'll point out is that Missouri does run the
ball well. They had over two hundred rushing yards and
three of their final four games, Oklahoma's the only team
they couldn't run against. Oklahom had the second best yards
per rush defense in the country this year, so if
you take that game out, they ran for over eight
hundred yards in their other three games against decent opponents.
Texas a and m Mississippi State Arkansas, So it'll be
a test for the Virginia rundee that's been fantastic this
season and overall this year. Virginia giving up just I
think about, what is it about three point four yards
per carry? Missouri's allowing just three point two. So I
don't really see either team dominating the line of scrimmage
in this game running the ball, and neither team throws
the ball well, Missouri's starting quarterbacks out, they still were
a below average passing team this year, and so was Uva.
So two teams that were below average passing, two good
pass defenses, two good run defenses. I can understand why
this total has dropped to forty five. My concern would
be if Virginia doesn't come focused. If you think they might,
then that probably helps the under.
Speaker 1: All right, there we go.
Speaker 2: Ross.
Speaker 1: We had a question in the chat. Do you expect
the line to swing back? This is from AWB four
and if so, is this a good time to snag
Missouri if we like them? That is what he asked.
Speaker 3: I think the line move is basically because of the
players that opted out of this game. I mean, Steve
mentioned the starting quarterback opted out two receivers and the
starting tight end is not going to play either. I mean,
you're taking away eighty eight receptions in over nine hundred
yards in offense right there, on top of missing your
starting quarterback. So I think that line move is more
predicated on that than it is on money that moved
the line. So I don't if it does go up
and it swings back toward the opening numbers, I don't
think we're going to see a drastic change. So I
hopefully that answers that question the best I can. Anyway,
you know, I would say brilliant minds think alike when
it comes to the under but I don't want to
insult Steve.
Speaker 4: So I do think this is going to be a
lower scoring game.
Speaker 3: I do think this is in terms of Power Conference
teams facing each other might be one of the more
boring games, boring matchups in the Bowl season. And you
look at both defenses, like Steve said, I mean Virginia
averaging allowing less than nineteen points per game, Missouri less
than nineteen points per game or a little over nineteen
points per game. Missouri has allowed twenty points for fewer
in eight of twelve games this year. A lot of
those were against SEC competition, so they're definitely a stout defense.
And Virginia, to me, they lacked the explosiveness on offense,
especially against some defense to caliber Missouri, so.
Speaker 4: I like this game to go under. I agree with
Steve wholeheartedly on his opinion.
Speaker 1: All Right, that's two votes for a little scoring Gator Bowl,
right there, guys. I see we've got some questions coming
in for one of tonight's games. I'll touch on that
and just a little bit. No, Jay Buffy did not
miss any Hawaii bull discussion either, so we'll maybe touch
on that either. We have one more game in our
rundown and we're going to also all three of us
tell you what we've got going on this week at
Wagertalk dot com. Obviously one of the busiest weeks of
the year and a very challenging week to handicap guys,
not just with these Bulls, but I was doing my
NFL initial work yesterday. It feels like half the league
is down to its backup quarterback there. I just basically
ripped up my power ratings that I usually lean heavily
on this week for pro and college football. I don't
think they matter quite frankly, but that's a different story
for a different day. Ross, your favorite LSU. We know
who their next head coaches. I know you've been watching
this program the last couple of weeks. Ross has made
his opinions clear on Lane Giffen and how he feels. Maybe, uh,
there's a chance to impress the old Lane train here. Ross,
although looking like a lot of opt outs on the
LSU side, take on Houston in the Texas Bowl nine
to fifteen Eastern on ESPN. I think all the opt
outs are why the Tigers opened as the underdogs here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And having said that, you know you're looking at
an LSU team that defensively is deep and played very
well this year. It's their offense was their enigma this year.
I mean you're looking at they played under the total
in their LAB four. They played under the total in
nine of twelve games this year. So that speaks volumes
to me. In Houston, you know, they look good at
times this year, but one thing they're not bad defensively.
You look at their defensive numbers, especially down to stretch,
they were pretty good to one exception being the game
against West Virginia. I just think this one we played
close to the best, and I think we're going to
see a lower scoring affair in the total in this game.
Certainly indicates that, you know, and you're looking at the
total opened at forty three and a half down to
forty one and a half. Some of that might be
for the reasons you said, Brian, in terms of opt
outs in transfer portals, but I think that this game
you're looking at like a seventeen to ten type of game,
seventeen thirteen somewhere in that area. So I'm going to
have a small lean toward the under here. I just
don't like this won't be on my card only because
forty one and a half, you know, is a relatively
low number in terms of college football totals, and with
both of these defenses and their ability to turn the
other people over, and then you're looking at the fac Houston.
I mean, they turned the ball over themselves ten times
in the last four games, and they created eight turnovers
during that time, So you know, too many short.
Speaker 4: Fields to worry about. But put the proverbial gun to
my head, like Steve likes to do, all you're wrong
and I'm gonna go under the toll.
Speaker 1: Merrill be a violent man, I will say no nus
Meyer for LSU, and you know other that you bring
up a great point, and I'll take over to Steve. Yes,
other than an inexplicable first half against West Virginia, And
if memory serves me correct, I'm doing this off the
top of my head. I think that was turnover field.
Houston's defense was outstanding this year, So Steve, it seems
like the consent and certainly these early Bowl matchups backing
up these sort of opinions we're given here on the
under I mean, the offensive execution, particularly with these interim
stabs and whatnot, has not been crisp in a lot
of these Bowl games. So do you think this is
another low scoring one as well between LSU and Houston.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Once again, I go back to motivation. I mean,
the thing that concerns you here with this low of
a total is if the LSU is all over the
place like they might be, does that show on the
defensive side. But I think you're right, you need defense
is more about motivation. It's just athleticism, strength, you know, desire,
get out there, hit somebody. You need more precision on
the offensive side. And now that we'll get into these
late December games. This Saturday, December twenty seventh, you do
start talking about teams being off for more than a
month on this in some cases. In fact, Houston and
LSU both played on November twenty ninth. That's a full
four weeks off for these squads. And let's not forget
LSU was not a good offensive team this year, really
bad rushing attack, one of the worst in the SEC
for sure, and they barely average one hundred rushing yards
a game. And I bring that up because when you're
off for a month, I think it's easier to get
back in there play smash mouth football. You're going to
talk about how service academies do during the bulls and
you know, hey, how do they play right smash mouth football?
And if you look at the two teams here, Houston
runs from US one hundred and seventy five yards a game.
Huge rushing edge here for the Cougars, And you've got
to always respect Cougar's after a long layoff, they come
out and fight. You know that Brian Power and both
defenses are solid LSU. Both of these teams good defenses,
questionable offenses. There's a reason why it's the lowest total
at forty one, but don't underestimate cougars when they've been cornered.
Speaker 1: Well, on that note, perhaps we should talk about the
Frisco gowl tonight, because I think there are some questions
rolling in about all my alma mater head coach Brian Smith.
If you kept if you caught the end of last
week's program here on the blitz, I said, as a
Producia University graduate, was zero chance that man was fired
for alcohol related reasons. If they got rid of everyone
and out in Athens for alcohol related.
Speaker 2: There was an alcohol involved probably by the way, there was.
I got to do a disclaimer here, the Steve Merrill correction.
This doesn't happen often, but I did the video yesterday
and I think I had a slip of the tongue.
Said underage affair, I meant undergraduate.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 2: And as I said in the comments today, because I
reply to the comments, I read them all that she
was probably a little underage for him still as she
was down of cougar, Steve, and you don't know that either,
damn it.
Speaker 1: And that's where we're going here. Yes, so if you
watch some I said, there was no way somebody would
lose their job in Athens, Ohio. Of all places, if
they got rid of people for alcohol in Athens, there
would be no student body. There'd be no teachers, There'd
be no there would be no one. Okay, a bottle,
there would be no Brian Barr. There's there's a bottle
of booze in every drawer in that town. Steve so
I was not surprised to learn there was smoke or
a fire behind that smoke, so to speak. So yeah,
for those of you who are asking, Ohio has he
was on administrative leave early. UNLV took money for this game.
This is Tuesday night UNLV in Ohio and the Frisco Ball.
I'll just touch on this. I actually did a complete
breakdown of this game on wager Talk today this morning.
I'm sure they'll make that a standalone video as well.
I get look, everyone's gonna say I'm being a homer.
I want to punch back at the market a little bit.
I don't like to see Ross can tell you I've
been pooh pooing this UNLV team all season on this show.
I think they're one of the luckiest teams in the country.
Tip of the cap to Dan Mullen. He outperformed my expectations,
but they were five and one in one score games.
Despite the coaching situation, no one's opting out for Ohio.
And did you know, Steve Merrill, the Ohio University Bobcats
have the nation's second longest bull win streak at six straight.
I think they may be motivated to continue that. I
would take the points with the all ma mater.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, go ahead, Series.
Speaker 3: You're looking at a coach, correct me if I'm wrong.
In Ohio, he's the first year head coach, right, and yeah,
so's There's not like there's been a ton of allegiance
toward him. You know, I'm sure to freshman classy recruited
as Frantz upon what happened. But other than that, and
you this naviral kid at quarterback, I think he could
be a difference maker in this game. And I think
too much is being made of Ohio losing their head
coach in the publicity in which that received.
Speaker 4: And you make some good points along those lines, Brian,
But go ahead, Steve. I'm sorry to interrupt you.
Speaker 2: No, no, I was going to chime in on the
total in this It's good. I was saying about using
this as the free flavor the show, guys, but I
know people will be watching it later into the week,
so I'm going to use a Saturday game here at
the end instead. But I do like the over in
this game tonight. It's one of the biggest of not
the biggest bull total this season, and as you guys know,
the highest totals go over more times than not. It
opens sixty two and a half, it's up to sixty
five and a half. And the thing for me is
un LV is a great offense, terrible defense, right, So
I think even if Ohio is a little shorthand they're distracted,
they're going to still score in this game, and UNLB
will get theirs as well. I believe they averaged like
thirty five points a game this season, and I like
the up and over sixty five sixty five and a
half ton I should be a shootout at Non Eastern.
Speaker 1: Yeah, highest total of the bowlseason as of right now, Steve.
As a matter of fact, I watched the UNLV game
against Air Force a couple of it was on one
of my TVs that Saturday afternoon. I don't think there
was a single defensive stop in that game.
Speaker 3: It was.
Speaker 1: It was absolutely absurd. So yeah, I would co sign
that that number is high for a reason. Don't think
there will be a lot of mets. We've talked about
some unders so far in this show, but that game,
I don't think. I think defense is optional in the FRISCO.
Thank you.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and not to beat a dead horse. But again
we've talked about this, Brian. Alls you need to do
is go back and look at UNLV's opener. They allowed
over five hundred yards to Idaho State, who plays anti clap.
But I don't even think Idaho State made the FCS playoffs.
Speaker 4: I might be wrong.
Speaker 2: There were not a powerhouse FCS team, so yeah, I
don't even know if they made the playoffs either. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, So let's all right, let's take a
brief pause here. We still have our best bets coming.
I think we're gonna between the rundown and our best bets,
I think we're basically got you covered on everything for
Saturday here, So congrats for tuning in here to the Blitz.
We're trying to cover as many of these games as
we can. Again, the three of us combined, we'll have
a ton of standalone content too. So anything that you
may not have heard on this show may have slipped
through the cracks. If you will, I'm sure at least
one of us will be getting to those games here. Guys,
just remember to like and subscribe here on the wager
Talking YouTube channel. And if you didn't, and if you're
catching the show not live, you can still comment down
below and ask us questions. We'll be checking as the
week progresses. All right, I know Wednesdays before Saturday, jay Buff,
we'll get to the Hawaii Ball. Jaye. Buff's a good
friend of mine, but very demanding in the comments section,
What do we say here that we talk about what
we've going on this week? Wednesday is before Saturday, and
I'm sure we've got a lot going on all of
us in between here, Steve, I'll throw it to you first, though.
Why don't you talk about what's going on in your
neck of the woods at wag.
Speaker 2: Talk dot com. Yeah, so right now, let's sell about
those videos once again. I've got all three games for Tuesday.
I've got the Hawaii Bowl that we're talking about. That
Wednesday game is up here right now, and also three
NFL games Thursday. All three underdogs might have third string
quarterbacks on Thursday. What could go wrong? Enjoy your lump
of call, Roger Goodell, you deserve it. Also, all three
Friday Bowl games I'll have up later this week, and
there are eight Bowl games Saturday. I think maybe we
missed a couple, Brian, don't worry. I'm gonna break them
all down, and an eight for one special. We'll see
if I have a voice left for fade the public
this Sunday. But yeah, it's all three. Here a way
to talk TV, click subscribe, click that bell, And tonight
on Tuesday, I do have three best bets my first
boll total best bet tonight and also two NBA best bets.
And if you're joining us on Tuesday, it is five
dollars Tuesday, don't miss out instant eighty percent discount. And
then also some Christmas specials going up tomorrow and Wednesday,
starting at midnight on Wednesday mornings, so check that out.
Wagertalk dot com, Steve Maryland. Don't forget about the bonus
free play. My last cut, just a Bit Outside, goes
up as a free play every day on my page
for free. Steve Merril, wager Talk dot com and get
there quicker wt Dot Buzz Slash sm All right, Steve,
like eight game, well in one video you're covering. So
I checked with the production team. I was like, do
you want me to split this into like, you know, daytime,
night time, four, and four because eight seemed insane, And
then they reminded me that I did it for the
nc DOUBA tournament first round. I did when we have sixteen,
I might have done all sixteen in the video and
those are all about twenty minute videos. So it just
shows Brian, you know, when you have one game, I
go like ten minutes to eight games. It's still like
gain you know that too. Ross. It's like, well you
make it efficient. And I will say thank you for
having me on because I got a lot of the advance.
It's work done already because we've done like half the
games today, So I would think about spitting it out
right now, but like you said, there's so many opt
outs and whatnot. I think I'm going to record it
here in a couple of days, maybe up on Friday
or you know, Friday night.
Speaker 1: Make sure you guys stay tuned for that Ross, and
make sure you guys want to stay tuned for everything
Ross is doing here. On the wayge Hockey Thuugh channel,
and also what he's got going on at wager talk
dot com as well. Ross tells about.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm off to a great start with my college
football postseason picks three and zero this past weekend, with
my college football playoff picks two and one to start
the bowl season, five and one overall this year with
my college football postseason picks folks, going back to the
start of the twenty twenty two college football postseason forty
five and twenty two sixty seven percent up over seventy
four units in that profit my college football overall one
sixty seven and one o nine with my last two
hundred and seventy six college football premi picks up one
hundred and thirty eight units in net profit sixty one
percent winners. NFL coming off a nice winter last night
with the Indian San Francisco game easily going over to
total terrible Sunday in the NFL winter on Thursday in
the NFL, but or Saturday night, I should say, but
twenty one and eight with my last twenty nine in
the NFL. Going good there in all sports, although I'm
having a terrible December, guys, I'm still up one hundred
and fifty one units in net profit since made the
thirteenth in all sports so an MBA by the way,
forty one and twenty eight last sixty nine, So.
Speaker 4: A lot of good stuff going on. Don't forget folks.
Speaker 3: Today two specials end for us for four day special
for sixty nine dollars. I should say all access normally
sixty nine dollars, but for three days, but we're giving
you an additional day for free, so you're getting four
days for sixty nine dollars. Also seven day all access
passed normally ninety nine dollars, you're going to get an
additional three days absolutely free, ten days ninety nine dollars,
less than ten dollars a day. Both of those specials
and tonight at midnight, so you need to act quickly.
And then a big week coming up. And also weekend
Warrior special forty nine dollars, guys, been a very popular
thing for our customers, clients and viewers.
Speaker 4: And not only will you get.
Speaker 3: College football in the NFL this weekend, you also get
every other sport that we put out on the premium
side for just forty nine dollars. On Saturday, and Sunday,
including all five percent best bets.
Speaker 1: All right, those were pressures on me right now to speak.
I heard you say twenty one and eight Ross, Well,
just so happened. I'm twenty one and eight my last
twenty nine college football select including a perfect six and
h start to the Bulls and college football play if
we have turned it on at the most opportune time
in the season, guys, over the weekend we have both
Miami and Florida. That was an outright winner and Miami
of Florida against Texas A and m first half under sure,
if you guys watched that game, it did not get
much e does not get much easier a bet does
than that one. It was zero zero going into the break.
So that was a great play. Six and OHO starts
with the Bulls continues.
Speaker 2: Go over my page. Wtup.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have a lot of big plays this weekend
as well. We've also been seeing it well in the
NFL sixty seven percent in November thirteenth, including the big
five percent winner on Saturday with the Commander's Eagles over
That was, to be quite blunt with you, that was
a fortunate game that we got over. We got a
nice pass INTERFERI it's nice. You guys can attest to that.
A lot of those times it goes against you to
get a pass interference call like that late in the
game to set us up for the garbage time touchdown.
Was I'm not complaining quite frankly about that. I don't
think anyone would complain about a trip to Hawaii on
Christmas Eve. Now it's not a trip for Hawaii, because
of course, sir, it's just a home game, the Hawaii
Bowl on Christmas Eve. But the Warriors will be playing cal.
This was the Hawaii Well. I don't know if you
guys remember this last year that went into three four
fat went into a lot of overtimes. I remember I
was trying very hard not to wake my wife and
daughter while I was sweating that game. But that is
the life we have all chosen here in this industry.
As we are convulsing in bed watching the Hawaii Ball
on Christmas Eve. But did you guys have any takes
on that? Because I know Jay buff did ask and
let's just get to that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, if I can just small take, Okay,
you're you're looking at Hawaii.
Speaker 4: Hawaii will be.
Speaker 3: The more motivated team in this matchup. In my estimation,
California playing with a lame duck coaching staff right now,
several apt outs in transfer portal victims there and Hawaii
really enjoying a tremendous season this year. And uh, I
think there'll be the more motivated team. Is this a
game I'm going to use on my card? No, because
on paper, California should be the super superior team. But
it's not always about who's a better team, Steve, you know,
in these ball games, it's sometimes it's a matter of
just motivation, especially in what's seemed to be a pretty
even matchup.
Speaker 2: I agree, Ross, I mean, I think motivation is the
number one thing when you're handicapping the NFL preseason and
the college postseason. Right it's come opposite ends of the
spectrum here have come full circle and they have been
a good home team as well. And look, if there's
ever a time you're going to take a vacation at
a bowl game, you're going to Hawaii, that's definitely distracting.
Maybe Las Vegas and Hawaii would be the two bowl
games you'd worry about teams being focused on as visitors.
I'll look at the total in this one. And I
gave out a free play video yesterday on this and
it was fifty two and opened fifty five, down to
fifty two, and now it's like fifty to fifty and
a half. So we have lost that key number of
fifty one. Might want to hold off at this point
and see if you get it back tomorrow night, if
the public maybe pushes it a little higher, if we
get some buyback, probably about a three to four percent
chance a game can land on fifty one, you know,
forty one to ten. Lots of margins, twenty seven to
twenty four, a lot of key margins get you there
to fifty one. And both teams cannot run the ball.
Two terrible rushing attacks, and you'd say, hey, normally both
teams throwing the ball that you think there's gonna be
a lot of points. But both teams pass defenses are decent.
They both have been off for a month, so there
again you worry about the consistency. And you also could
get a little bit of win in Hawaii. We'll see
and they think the weather will be nice, but we
could get some breezes. So I think the undermakes sense.
We've definitely seen the sharp money coming on the under.
Some guys out for cal as well, but at fifty
one or more there's some value. Now at fifty to
fifty and a half, it's started to get a little pricey.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the biggest, the most key opt out of that
game is Hawaii's leading receiver. If you have yet to
dig in almost one thousand yards twelve touchdowns, I believe.
Speaker 2: So, you know, we'll see if they can just dial
in place, you know, and time may if he can
plug somebody else back in there.
Speaker 1: But yeah, that's a big loss absolutely. So all right, Uh,
we've covered a lot of games. We've still got more
to go. What do you say we go through our
best bets here, guys, We've got more games to even cover.
I'm going to get us started in the Fenway Bowl
two fifteen Eastern on Saturday, ESPN, of course from Boston, Massachusetts.
Where else with the Fenway Bowl b Yukon versus Army guys.
I am not a military man. I have many friends
who are. But unless they've changed the rules on us,
you can't opt out of bowls if you're in the Army.
That's the one edge they've got these service academies. You
can't opt out, so it should be the normal Army
squad on the field Saturdays. They look to bounce back
from that heartbreaking Losston Navy at the end of the
regular season. Ralph Michael's a few weeks ago on the program,
let us know about this service academies in bowl games
have been printing money an insane run. I believe eighteen
and two against the number the last twenty appearances between Army,
Navy and Air Force. As for Yukon, well, oh boy,
three starting offensive linemen the portal yikes. They could be
down to a four string quarterback. Double yikes. Their defense
horrible against the run, triple yikes facing the triple option.
If you guys saw this defense against Rice, who runs
the triple option, and against air Force, they were not
gonna They were very lucky. Against air Force, they could
not stop that. They had no early down success rate
in that game. The Yukon, and also we've harped on
this in other games. You're dealing with an interim coaching
staff with Yukon. Jim Mora junior leads for Colorado State.
Jason Kandell, as we've already mentioned, he's coming in from Toledo,
so it's an interim staff here, guys. At some point,
maybe we do get to a number where I wouldn't
feel comfortable laying it with Army. But we're not there yet.
Chances are this game gets very ugly in a hurry.
Army minus nine and a half in the Fenway Bowl
is my show? Best bet Ross, you want to go next?
Speaker 4: I'm sorry, I want to go next to Ross with
yours are? Yeah.
Speaker 1: I realized I punctuated that with such a b was
just like, okay, and now what do we do?
Speaker 4: So I was for one of us.
Speaker 2: The beauty of the analysis had me frozen.
Speaker 4: Yes, I mean I will play on your game. Army.
Speaker 3: Also, you know, you look at that Army team. They
started to hear slow, but you know, uh, that's a
team that lost by seven to two, Lane by seven
in North Texas, and uh a one point loss against Navy.
Those were all three very good teams and two of
them played for, uh the title in the American Athletic Conference.
So uh, that's that's a better than advertised Army team.
Speaker 1: And it is with Sabby Fenway Ball that is a
that is some sort of technology thing. It's not for sushi.
So just a case of for we needed to. These
bull sponsors have gotten real dire, guys.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: People talk about motivation of the balls. These bull sponsors
aren't what they used to be. Man, I don't know
where they pulled some of these cups, but he's from
but Ross, what are you pulling for your best bets?
Speaker 3: Well, I'm looking at the Miami of Ohio and Fresno
State game. I don't know what its name, what bullet is,
but I'm looking at the matchup. Maybe you could help
me out, Brian in terms of the name of the
bowl game.
Speaker 1: But in any dog bowl, yeah, a super dog ball.
Speaker 4: Yeah snoop DOGG. There you go.
Speaker 3: So in any event, yeah, Look again, it's a matter
of motivation for me. I'm not crazy about Miami Ohio. Look,
and in their non conference portion of the schedule, they
went on three. They did face two Big Ten teams,
but look at the Big Ten teams. They faced Wisconsin
and Rutgers, bottom of the barrel Big Ten teams this year.
They were outscored you know, those two games, sixty two
to seventeen. They also lost to unov in a non
conference game forty one thirty eight, giving.
Speaker 4: Up over five hundred yards of total offense.
Speaker 3: They lost three of their last five against the including
the MAC Championship game against Western Michigan where they are
only able to muster up two hundred and seventy two
yards of total offense.
Speaker 4: We talk about their.
Speaker 3: Starting quarterback to Kwan Finn, who left several weeks back.
Quit the team because he wanted to get ready for
the NFL Draft. I think maybe he should have opted
for the transfer portal first guys, because he would have
got a strong dose of reality. Not a lot of
Power Conference teams or mid conference teams would be opting
for services anyway. Having said all that, Fresno State new
coaching staff this year. They opened with a thirty one
seven loss at Kansas game. You were pretty competitive until
the second half, and they end up going eight and
four this year and including a win at Boise State
thirty to seven. So Boise State the Mountain West Conference champion,
and I just think that this team, with a new
coaching staff and the success they had, they're going to
ride that momentum against a team that struggled down to
stretch in Miami, Ohio didn't farewell and they're non conference
portion of the schedule. I'm going to have uh a
lean air toward Fresnel State is my uh pick? Here
weigh in the points five and a half. I believe
it is over Miami, Ohio.
Speaker 1: Yes, and that is the Arizona Bowl presented by Snoop DOGG.
That smoke at halftime will not be from the fireworks,
needless to say, fun times there.
Speaker 4: We'll come to when you name a bull after Snoop dog.
Speaker 1: They needed Hey you could buy I guess he just
gave it. You know, he's all over the place.
Speaker 2: He's on the man.
Speaker 4: Next is going to be the M and M Bull.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, hey they got one in Detroit, so there
he could.
Speaker 2: Who knows that?
Speaker 4: What the money? The money that Steve makes it Wade
you talking?
Speaker 2: He was, by the way, that wasn't me this month.
I don't know who it was.
Speaker 1: It was not met here a little bit.
Speaker 2: It was not me. I wish it had been.
Speaker 4: Months, man, it really is.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, speaking of us sponsors, Brian, every time
we've talked about this day, I get hungry. So we're
going to talk about again the Pop Tarts Bowl. That's
got to be the best one. And like you said,
you could take A. I love mascots. In fact, back
when I played high school football, I always want to
be Robbie ram Our mascot was the ram My. Dad
always found that comical that I wanted to be the Ram.
I thought it halftime. I could run out there and
do it. But I've always had a respect for mascots.
I think they're cool, and the pop tart would be
like as cool as it gets. It's Camping World Stadium,
Georgia Tech b YU Camping World Bowl. I think they
had that at one time. I don't know why it's
not the Camping World Bowl once again. By the way,
Snoop Dog probably doing the Olympic coverage here in a
couple of months like he did a couple of years ago,
So maybe they're gonna promo that. My guess is maybe
that's connected to NBC or the Olympics somehow, but we
shall find out. We talked about this game earlier. I
mentioned that b YU and the Young I like BYU
minus the four and a half though, as the side
in this game and open two and a half three,
it's up to four and a half five. I agree
with that move. Georgia Tech's offensive staff not many opt
outs from the players, but the offensive staff, the coaching
staff for Georgia Tech is a concern. Chris Winky likely
calling the plays as the assistant offensive coordinator this season.
So I think BYU has a little bit of an
edge there. And we talk about the military academies traveling well.
Do the Mormon schools travel well? I don't know. I
mean BYU always seems to show up for Bowl games.
Both teams run the ball well, but BYU throws a
little bit better. And the huge edge in this game,
as I said earlier, is a substantially better defense for BYU,
and they're taking on an offensive coaching staff that might
be a little shaken up. I like BYU minus the
four and a half, and we'll see if it continues
to climb. It's hitting five in a lot of spots.
That's a three point thirty eastern Saturday afternoon in sunny Orlando, Florida.
Speaker 1: All right, that is three best best for Let's get
that fancy graphic on the screen. Dan Alexander if you
could the blitz squad right. Ross likes Fresno State minus
five and a half. Steve like b YU minus four
and a half, and I like Army three favorites here.
We don't see that all that often.
Speaker 2: Wow, there we go money line parlay.
Speaker 1: Yes, you could do that, and these lines could go
and hey and all we're recording this Tuesday again, guys,
these lines obviously could go up between now and Saturday.
Speaker 2: I will say this real quick, that Broight, I probably
wouldn't recommend. I mean, I very well ever recommend money parlay.
It's you're not changing the math that you I've had
that whole discussion. But we talk about the preseason and
how we've come full circle. These lines are soft, and
once again, a two and a half to four and
a half five point move in that BYU game is
not like a regular season game. It's information based, just
like in the preseason where we see a lot You
talk about the Army game is a perfect example. You know,
we see Lions move because one team is motivated and
players are sitting, and so don't think like you've lost value.
That other line was never correct based on the new
known information. With that said, though, these lines aren't nearly
as sharp as we fifteen or sixteen NFL lines have
been the last couple of weeks. And you know, if
you like an underdog, especially in a bowl game, you
probably should be putting some of it on the money line.
I say that in all sports every week, but especially
the ball season, right because a lot of these dogs
can win outright, and you don't always need the point.
Speaker 3: Yeah, not only the motivation, Steve, but you know when
you factor in, like you said, the transfer portal and
players opting out. I've always been a proponent when people say,
do you know so and so's out?
Speaker 4: You're not making a new discovery.
Speaker 3: Okay, if we know it, the odds makers know it,
and I always say, that's all factored into the line.
Speaker 4: So some of that is factored into the line right
from where it was in the opener, and then finding
out players available for each team, so you have to
dive into it a little deeper at this. It's not
like it used to be, Steve, you know, Brian. It's
we used to be able to put out college football
bull picks early and get them up in volume. But
you're pretty foolish if you do that these days. In
my estimation anyway.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I will say the one thing that hasn't changed,
just like the preseason in the NFL, it's all about motivation. Still,
but you'd used to not get the opt outs, you'd
had to dig a little bit deeper, like which team's
going to show up? Everybody was still playing, but the
guys were just going through the motions on the defensive line,
not tackling, not hitting. So it's it's different, but it's
the same in that regard. It still comes down to
motivation and a lot of times too, I'll point this
out real quick. You know, we talked about these minor
bowl teams like the Max and stuff, the SEC, the
you know, the Big Ten, these conferences, the backups a
lot of times are just as good as a guy's
opted out. Even the quarterbacks are just as good. Remember Moss,
who's gonna play in his bowl game now with another school.
Remember when he stood in for USC a couple of
years ago. I had them that was Caleb Williams, probably right,
Caleb Williams was sitting out, and you know he was
still a monster. So keeping I always feel like the
smaller conference teams get hurt more by any opt outs.
You know, when a starter is out that's played seven
hundred snaps or whatnot than one of these power you know,
Power five. I don't know what the terminology is the
SEC the Big ten, you know what I'm talking about. Yes, absolutely,
they reload instead of having to rebuild. That's the yeah.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I talked about one of those games. Well,
if it's a game that does have a lot of
opt out, you guys can check this out. I think
it's gonna available tomorrow or maybe tonight if you're if
you're an insider here on the Waychchuck channel, you can
get it.
Speaker 2: I believe right now.
Speaker 1: Actually I previewed the go above sports ball between Northwestern
and Central Michigan. That's a game you guys can check out.
I I lean towards the That's another game where I've
got to lean it towards the under. It seems like
we've been saying that we're under quite a bit here
on the show. A damaham Lincoln, Did I get that
name right? Don't be so hard on yourself. I saw
you just He's being quite a hard on himself for
missing much of the show. He noted. He he he
wanted to know about the Louisville game. Guys, let's just
hit this real quick because it starts, it kicks off
actually just the matter of minutes Louisville just keeps taking money.
That's up to twelve and a half. I don't know
if anywhere so.
Speaker 4: Too, you know, at cornerback.
Speaker 2: So yeah, we talked about the situation. Now, guys, we're
maybe trying to get an in game line below ten.
I mean ten and eleven are semi key numbers. Yes,
And I just said, how the line don't let the
line move scare you. Well, this one's pretty substantial, and
once again, you do want to have a starting point
on what the line should be. All things zeke one.
As I said, my ten thousand game simulation would have
had Louvio by five in the regular season. So you
got to decide now or all these opt outs and whatnot.
These changes Toledo guys missing worth seven points probably where
it should be now at this point.
Speaker 1: All right, guess what that doesn't I thought this was
a fantastic program. I'm gonna hit the like button to
be honest with you, when we're done. Next week we
will have the college football playoff preview. We will be
talking about before quarter final matchups, probably mixed in some
of the other New Year's we'll call them New Year's
Day ish bowl games as well as information continues to
trickle in. Big thanks to Steve, Big Things to Ross
for helping me out here on the Blitz. We will
be live on Tuesday again next week. They're not gonna
make us work New Years Day or New Year's Eve.
Sorry about that, and I know Dan doesn't want to either,
so we're all happy. We'll get you that information out
a little bit easier. Check these guys out, what's going
on a wager talk dot com check me out as well.
Until next time, let's cash some tickets