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Speaker 1: Well, it feels like they're testing things, right, because we

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did a pandemic. Now we know how that works, We

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know how easy it is to say our conculture and

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so you know, the cyber attack or the you know,

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the major outage is on that list of things they

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want to understand before they actually launch it for real,

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and so this could have been just a trial run.

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You know, Hey, hey, what happens if we shut the

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internet down for ree hours? You know? Move on? Yeah,

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let's just make sure that it's okay for us.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network, where you

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get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to

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thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot

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com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever.

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Speaker 1: And welcome.

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Speaker 3: You are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network.

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I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. John Robido is back with us. John,

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You've been on the road, but you're looking healthy and

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that's the important thing. So hey, the first question world

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War three?

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Speaker 1: Are we there yet? Hey? Carrie? Yeah, it's good to

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be back home and good to talk to you after

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a month of traveling around. And I guess you're gonna

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hit the road pretty soon too yourself. So yeah, well

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have fun if we don't talk before that, but yeah,

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world War three, that might be an important story going forward.

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You know, Trump's all the finance stuff that we're going

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to talk about, because if we're in a shooting war

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with nuclear powers, and you know, it really doesn't matter

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what the treasury yield is or where the NASDAC is

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or in videos president, you know, because we're in danger

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of nuclear annihilation at that point. Why anyhow, we're getting

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closer and closer. First, in Ukraine, we've been feeding so

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many weapons and probably so many advisors and on the

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ground people to this proxy war over there, which was

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originally designed to weaken Russia. Take take an adversary off chessboard,

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and it's been going on forever, and Russia's not off

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the chessboard, and the Ukrainians are basically out of people,

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so they they're starting to do something desperate now, or

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the Ukrainians in the US and partnership are starting to

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do something desperate where they're attacking the interior of Russia.

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And they're hitting nuclear plants and refineries and military bases,

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and so Russia is kind of you know, they're at

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the point where, okay, this is it. You know, they're

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they're just gonna invade Ukraine completely and take it over

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and just basically crush anything that gets in their way.

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The problem with that is is that the US is

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in the way now where we've sent them planes and

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so it's NATO. You know, there are German planes and

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US planes over there on the trainers showing those guys

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how to fly the planes. And apparently there are US

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soldiers embedded with the Ukrainians who are in Russia. Now

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they're back in the rush assets. Yeah, we learned from Vietnam,

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you know. Johnson, Well, that was a long time ago, Carrie.

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It's it's easy to forget in three decades how you

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almost ruined your culture. But so we're reaching the point

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now where Russians and Americans are going to be killing

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each other and blowing up each other's stuff, and boy,

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that is so close to, uh, you know, an actual

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declared shooting war with the two biggest nuclear powers in

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the world, you know. And so that's one thing, and

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then meanwhile you got Israel sinking more and more deeply

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into a broad Middle Eastern war, in the US bringing

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over assets to protect Israel against Iran. And so, you know,

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Iran is not a nuclear power, but it's a it's

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a major Middle East for power, and who knows it

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might at this point be a nuclear power. We don't

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know what the state of their nuclear program is, so

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but we do know that they've got a lot of

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cruise missiles, they've got a lot of people, they've got

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a lot of weaponry for that theater. So that's I

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don't know if you could call that World War three,

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but you could certainly call it a major, broad based

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Middle Eastern war that the US is on the verge

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of involving itself in. And then of course you got

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China over there where We've got China kind of surrounded

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by military base, and one little accident with you know,

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an aircraft carrier or a fighter jet or something like

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that could set things off over there. So we're in

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grave danger of a three front war right now, two

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fronts of which involved nuclear powers, at least two fronts

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of which. So this is a nightmare, and it's all

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our fault, you know, We didn't have to surround China

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with the military basins. There's a funny meme that I

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posted on my substack that is a picture. Well, first

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of all, the headline is Iran once a war, and

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then you scroll down and it's it's a map of

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Iran with all of our military bases and around it,

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and the caption is because why else would they have

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surrounded all our military bases with our country. So that's

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the situation out there. We're picking it everybody, and it

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could end well, could end pretty badly for humanity, or

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at least very badly for the cultures that are involved

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in this WARCE. So you know, here's hoping that we

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get to the braink and we pull back. But in

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the meantime, until we do pull back, there's no other

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story that even comes close to the magnitude and the

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importance of World War three.

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Speaker 3: So so really the election is the only other story

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because one side we know wants to have World War

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three and blow up everybody. I guess real and imagined

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edem east. It's like that song from the seventies by

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Randy Newman. You know, let's drop the big one now

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you'll eat us anyhow, So let's drop the big one now,

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like somebody grew up with that saw. And then there's Trump, which,

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according to Tucker Crlson, Trump's major sin or the military

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industrial complex the neocons, is that he didn't want another war.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, that's I mean, that's that's the main reason

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why he's hated by the establishment, because he's getting in

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the way of their gravy train. Because the way the

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military industrial complex works now is that politicians go out

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there and decide who to invade, or which proxy war

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to finance or whatever, and of course they send a

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bunch of money. That money flows back to General Dynamics

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and raytheon for new weapons, and then they pay their

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CEO's massive year end bonuses. But with a little bit

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of the money that's left, they funnel it back into

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those same politicians election campaigns. So it's a nice closed

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system in which everybody gets rich except for the people

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that are murdered by the proxy wars and the nuclear

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conflagrations that are going to all of our kids if

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they if it goes much further. So, yeah, you don't

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want a politician getting in the way of that, because

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it's billions, hundreds of billions of dollars brillion at stake. Yeah, yeah,

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over time it's trillions. Yeah. So, and you know, I don't,

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I don't. Trump is too erratic for me to come

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out in support of. But you know, we had four

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years of him, We had four years of Biden. Trump

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years were much more peaceful than the Bible Wars suse.

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Biden got into office, he started everything every kind of

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war you can imagine out there. And that was because

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he is in the pocket of the defense establishment and

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the Democrats in Congress and the Republicans too. I mean,

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all of the political class is basically in the pocket

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of big pharma, big food, the military industrial complex, and

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the green energy establishment. So anybody who gets in the

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way that is risking their life and we're seeing that

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with Trump right now. So I think it escalates from here.

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You know, they missed with the one assassination attempt and

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attempt and they we'll come back with more legal stuff. Yeah, yes,

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well yeah, I think so. And who was the guy,

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one of the big Democratic politicians just he was on

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camera and he said, well, you know, if Trump gets elected,

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if he wins the election, then we're going to have

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to prevent him from being able to take on with

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us using this Yeah, yeah, and was it the twenty Jamie, Right.

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I don't remember what the legal mechanism they were going

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to use was, but he just flat out said that

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they were going to use it. So and we'll confirm them.

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Speaker 3: But that would be anarchy because then it would really

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be a constitutional crisis because Trump would not ascend to

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the presidency if he was elected, right, but the statutory

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terms of the Biden or whoever is running things there

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and the clutre would be over, so we would literally

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have nobody.

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Speaker 1: As pressible. We would have a civil war as what

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we would have, you know, that might distract us from

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World War three, so in the end of the US

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civil war might actually kill fewer people. So I don't know,

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I don't know. I mean, Washington State, that's the wrong

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state to be in for a civil war in the

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United States, you know.

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Speaker 3: But I'm sucking see not funny, but I can't help

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but laughing.

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Speaker 1: Why is that? John?

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Speaker 3: I mean, hey, you know a series we're talking the

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end of the world, the end of the living as

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we know it, and I'm finding humor in it.

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Speaker 1: Well because it's so stupid, you know, this is just

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so improbable and so inexplicable that you kind of have

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to laugh. I mean, this is just pat shit crazy

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what we're what we're doing right now. And well, I

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mean it used to be easier to laugh about financial

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crises because they're they are pretty funny. They're they're for

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a lot of people to get through. But it's just

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stupid Wall Street people taking unnecessary risks and government bailing

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them all out. And you know, if you play it right,

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you get rich ships. But World War three there's very

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there are very few ways to come out of that

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better than you went into it, right. I mean, a

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few people will, but it's not a broad based thesis

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that you can use to just Okay, well I'll implement

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this kind of repping and I'll be fine because you can't.

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So it's funny, how Yeah, all you can do is

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laugh sometimes.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well what else are you going to do? But

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you know, it's it really is escalating. I don't know

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about China because China is like had some huge issues

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with flooding. They had like a thousand year floods that

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just washed away whole provinces. Was the most amazing thing

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to watch. And it seems like g is fighting to

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hold power. You know, it's just making for a very

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unstable situation globally. It's making me believe that maybe the

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stars are behind it here. I mean, there is a

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guy who June first, he's a a utic astrologer, he

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does Indian astrology, and he said between July fourth and eleventh,

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there would be an assassination, a political assassination. And two

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days later they tried to take out Trump and by

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all rights, Trump should have been gone. That was like

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a shot that you just don't miss. And then he

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said a terrorist attack. Well they're saying it wasn't. But

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the whole CrowdStrike thing that shut down broke the Internet

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throughout the world. I mean John at my gym, the

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TVs at the Blue Screen of Death, because they were

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all hooked into certain and stuff and they just shut down.

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It was the most amazing thing. Like every other TV

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was shut down. But that was a big deal. Literally

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the Internet broke, and if it had lasted for any

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amount of time we would have had it, we would

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have a major economic depression. Imagine airlines not being able

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to fly for weeks. They couldn't fly for hours and

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it cost them billions. It would have cost them tens

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of billions because under the law, the airlines got to

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make good if there's a computer crash and it's not

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an act of God, they got to make good on

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all those tickets.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, it feels like they're testing things, right, because

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we did a pandemic. Now we know how that works,

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We know how easy it is to sit here convulsion,

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and so you know, the cyber attack or the you know,

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the major outage is on that list of things they

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want to understand before they actually launch it for real.

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And so this could have been just a trial run.

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You know, hey, hey, what happens if we shut the

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internet down for three hours? You know, yeah, let's just

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make sure that it's okay for us. And I think

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that the people who did that now know a lot

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more about what happens when you shut the Internet down

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for a while. So yeah, and there's no reason that

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these things can't happen all at once, you know, a

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declaration of World War three and internet outage and another pandemic.

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Did you see the resurrected monkey pocks? Yeah, because because

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that flopped, they brought it out and it flopped because

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the name was too silly. So nobody believed that, but

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they brought it back and now it's a new deadly

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version of monkey pocks and we all need to be vaccinated.

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So got to get Fauci. Where's Fauci when you need

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to bring here back? Wealchi, Yeah that's right, he's retired,

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but he can come back. But yeah, so okay, you

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know you and I are veering off into tinfoil had

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here Terry or can you keep all this stuff on YouTube?

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Or yeah?

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Speaker 3: I think so, like it almost like anything goes now sweets.

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We didn't say anything to that, but hey, you know

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it's you got to kind of speak and try a

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little code or a pig Latin if you're not well.

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Speaker 1: Now that we're heading back into an election, it's probably

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going to get tighter again because you know, they were there,

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were there, people were in charge, so they didn't really

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feel that threatened. But you see what's happening in Britain now,

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yeah with yeah, there's a guy going to prison. We

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were posting memes. Yeah for me, they weren't even know.

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They weren't even explicitly they weren't you the violence or anything.

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They were just I forget what it was. But something

257
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like this is what happens with open borders or it

258
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was a funny scene of protests or riots or something,

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but put him in prison for it. So and then

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they were threatening to extradite Americans stuff we did here

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in our internet.

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Speaker 3: Well did you catch so yesterday? And I should mention

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it's August thirteenth. Yesterday Trump sits down with Musk. But

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before that happened, like two hours before, some hancho from

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the EU sent a Musk a letter saying you can't

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do this. You're putting out disinformation. Disinformation's illegal, blah blah blah,

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and Musk posted if and the thing went on. And

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then again, funny thing happened in denial of service attack.

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It tied it up. But they still with all the

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reposts and everything else. John, they've gotten over one billion views,

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which is a record and is sending the the powers

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that be into absolute conniption?

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Speaker 1: Fits well, yeah, because they they do not well, obviously,

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they don't want Trump to win, and they've got a

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list of options there, and you know, shutting him down

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on public forums is one of their options. That's that's

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not a guarantee of anything, but it makes it harder

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for him to do what he does. You know, he

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hasn't had any big outside rallies, has he since the

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or not very many since the assassination attempt, And it

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was because but but he was having him, you know,

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one after another, and that's that's his big way of

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reaching his people. So I mean, if the lower number

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of outside venues is because it's so much more complicated

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and dangerous to do them now, then that that assassination

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attempt partially succeeded. So I don't know, there's a lot

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of a lot of things that can be tried between

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now and then. And you know what else is interesting

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is this is the first ever election where AI generated

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content is is a controversy like those Kamala Harris crowd scenes. Yeah,

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but I mean some people are saying, well, they're fake,

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and then I've caught a couple of mainstream out that's saying,

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oh yeah, and the Republicans tried to say that these

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totally legit images were fake. And so I don't know

295
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obviously whether they were fake or not, but it's it's

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now a source of uncertainty, right, whatever you see, you

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can think, well is this real or is it AI generated?

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So it wouldn't be a surprise if we get some

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big false flags heading up into the election where they

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use AI generated imagery to make some kind of a point,

301
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you know, to discredit somebody or to make somebody look

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extra good or whatever, and there isn't enough time left

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till the election to completely debunk it, so it stands

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as real video or real audio. And this is the

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first election where that's ever been a thing, so that

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that's a huge deal if it's true.

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Speaker 3: So true, it's it's, you know, one of those things,

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but you gotta wonder with what you're seeing because they

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had one of the Camilla Harris saying stuff that was stupid,

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but it wasn't that much more stupid than what she

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usually says, So it's almost like believable.

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Speaker 1: But wait, you know, with with her and this same

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as true as Trump Trump is, I don't need you

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don't need to make up fake stuff with them. You

315
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could just go through their their their video background and

316
00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:42,640
pull out all kinds of things that you know, thirty

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00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,480
second commercial are pretty damn then, you know, so we'll

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see a lot of that, I mean the next month. Yeah,

319
00:18:48,559 --> 00:18:51,359
she fake fakes as she called it, which you ever

320
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heard of, But they're sei they're not fake, that's whay,

321
00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:59,079
I'm dismissing them. But if it's real video footage, then

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then it's a real thing and it's a completely legitimate

323
00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:06,000
thing to post. The thing is, we won't know for

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00:19:06,079 --> 00:19:09,480
sure whether it's real or fake right away, and we

325
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might not have time to actually do the analysis that

326
00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:14,720
we need to do, or it might never show up.

327
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Like if you're in either of the big medio media silos,

328
00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:25,079
you will never know if something is whatever, you know

329
00:19:25,279 --> 00:19:27,799
if something is real or fake, because they won't tell

330
00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:30,680
you unless it's in their interest to tell you. So

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if you're on Fox or MSNBC, you're only going to

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get the stuff that reinforces your preconceptions, and so you're

333
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going to think those videos are real or you're going

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to know their false, depending on how it plays in

335
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your silo. So yeah, this is very scary stuff.

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Speaker 3: And you can't believe what they say anyway, because they

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said Hunter Biden's laptop was fake and that didn't wear

338
00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:55,119
too well, did it?

339
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Speaker 1: No? No, But they're half the country still believes what

340
00:20:00,079 --> 00:20:04,079
CNN and MSNBC was saying back then. It's a trusted

341
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sources of news, right, Yeah, And but you know, I

342
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don't I don't want to, you know, make this any

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more partisan than it is. There's a there's another group

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of people who watch Fox and they they still think

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that the lies that were told on Fox are are

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true because nobody's disabused them of that notion. So yeah,

347
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it's you know, it's possible to build your own little

348
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media ecosystem that features people who are trustworthy. And that's

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what people, well, people are doing that. You know, they're

350
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migrating over to Tucker Carlson and Joe Rogan and and

351
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realistically a lot of people on the left too, who

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honestly believe what they're saying. Okay, it doesn't mean any

353
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of those guys are right on any given issue, but

354
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it means that they're honestly trying to figure out what's

355
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true and honestly trying to take that truth that they

356
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feel like they've discovered and give it to people. And

357
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so you build a media system like that, a media

358
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ecosystem like that, and you have a way healthier view

359
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of the world because you're getting at least what some

360
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people honestly believe is the truth. And that's better than

361
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just a lot out lies because it fits a narrative,

362
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which is what most people get. Right.

363
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Speaker 3: Now, Hey, wasn't it Abraham Lincoln who said you can

364
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gaslight some of the people some of the time, you

365
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can gaslight all of the people some of the time,

366
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but you can't gaslight all of the people all of

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the time.

368
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Speaker 1: Was that Lincoln that said that, pind I think it's p. T.

369
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:52,960
Barnum who is but Piddy Lincoln? No.

370
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Speaker 3: Hey, you know, like when they said the gaslight district

371
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in San Diego, I think the US has become a

372
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gas light district, you know. But yeah, in the meantime,

373
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in other news, well we got producer prices barely rising,

374
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so convenient for an election, John, So, I guess inflation

375
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:21,119
is over. We don't have to worry about it anymore.

376
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The Fed foot the good fight and they won. And

377
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now you know, prices are higher, but they won't go

378
00:22:27,799 --> 00:22:28,400
much higher.

379
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Speaker 1: Well, we'll have favorable economic numbers going into the election,

380
00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:35,400
because you know, we've had them for the last year.

381
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What they do with, for instance, the jobs number or

382
00:22:37,519 --> 00:22:41,319
whatever is they report a beautiful number, take credit for it,

383
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:45,519
and then revise it back to its much lower number,

384
00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:50,079
real number. Over you know, the insulling months when nobody's

385
00:22:50,079 --> 00:22:53,319
paying attention. Obviously, the same thing is going to happen

386
00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:57,799
with economic numbers going into the election, so we shouldn't

387
00:22:57,799 --> 00:23:03,119
trust them other than for the fact that they're going

388
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:06,920
to justify those numbers, will justify cutting interest rates. So

389
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:09,079
there is going to be a real world impact here

390
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:12,480
where we'll get lower interest rates, maybe you know, maybe

391
00:23:12,519 --> 00:23:15,880
like three quarters of a point lower on the FED

392
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:19,960
funds rate by the time the election happens, and that'll

393
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:23,079
have hand impact, although you know, three quarters of the

394
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:25,720
point is not going to destroy the world or save

395
00:23:25,799 --> 00:23:31,119
the world, but probably Okay, here's the scenario that probably

396
00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:34,599
works out is that the economy still looks reasonably good

397
00:23:35,519 --> 00:23:40,480
in early November, but after the election, bad numbers are

398
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:44,279
allowed to come out, and the natural momentum that we have,

399
00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:47,240
which is downward, really gets going and we have a

400
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:53,039
pretty serious recession in twenty twenty five, which causes the

401
00:23:53,039 --> 00:23:55,640
Fed the panic cut, and then we get back into

402
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:58,000
where we were three or four years ago, when interest

403
00:23:58,039 --> 00:24:04,359
rates are close to zero and you know, inflation has

404
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,240
been replaced by deflation. As the big fear, we're liable

405
00:24:07,279 --> 00:24:10,440
to be back there this time next year. So the

406
00:24:10,559 --> 00:24:13,880
question is how are we going to invest for that

407
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:17,440
kind of a sea change, And I'm not really sure

408
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:20,400
because it's not even necessarily that good for gold and

409
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:24,079
silver early in that process. You know, cutting interest rates

410
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:28,519
is good, but deflation fears are bad. So we'll have

411
00:24:28,599 --> 00:24:30,119
to see this is this is going to be a

412
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:34,440
tricky one to navigate, but it's going to be very different,

413
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:38,440
which means different things make money for us in early

414
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,279
twenty five from what has made money in the past

415
00:24:41,279 --> 00:24:44,519
three or four years. So fascinating times, but we'll have

416
00:24:44,559 --> 00:24:45,359
a lot to talk about.

417
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:50,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, hey, the gaslight Associates, they're now in charge

418
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:53,759
of all the economic statistics, so we know we'll get

419
00:24:53,759 --> 00:24:56,559
the real story from them. But you know, we've been

420
00:24:56,599 --> 00:25:00,359
in a recession for years already. It just it used

421
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:06,000
to be two consecutive orders of negative GDP growth, right,

422
00:25:06,079 --> 00:25:10,480
which we had, and then they said no, no, not

423
00:25:10,559 --> 00:25:11,279
a recession.

424
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:16,119
Speaker 1: Right. And remember that's real GDP growth using the government's

425
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:20,799
inflation numbers to adjust, which are wrong GDP. Yeah, So

426
00:25:21,279 --> 00:25:24,480
I think if we took actual inflation, which is probably

427
00:25:24,759 --> 00:25:27,480
three or four percentage points hired in the government's number,

428
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:32,200
then had we had negative growth for a year and

429
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:36,119
a half there because twenty twenty two we had almost

430
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:39,759
nine percent official inflation, so twenty twenty two had to

431
00:25:39,759 --> 00:25:43,640
be a down year in real terms no matter what, right,

432
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:49,079
And if you're adjusting nominal GDP for nine percent inflation,

433
00:25:49,279 --> 00:25:52,000
you got to end up with the negative nominal or

434
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:56,200
real GDP number, but we didn't, so yeah, So I

435
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:56,519
don't know.

436
00:25:57,839 --> 00:26:00,880
Speaker 3: My mother always used to tell me that thetistics lie

437
00:26:01,519 --> 00:26:03,200
and liars use statistics.

438
00:26:04,079 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 1: And then was it.

439
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:11,680
Speaker 3: Winston Churchill who said there's lies, damn lies, and then

440
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:17,359
there's statistics. So yeah, I bet there are official statistics.

441
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,519
That's the important thing, because the official ones are the

442
00:26:19,519 --> 00:26:25,400
ones who are so grossly manipulated. In today's world, the

443
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:28,240
only number you really can trust is the stock market,

444
00:26:28,599 --> 00:26:32,440
because it might be fake, bakery, whatever, But at least

445
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:34,839
when the stock market goes up, John, you know it

446
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:35,920
went up, right.

447
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:38,680
Speaker 1: Well, that's true. You know that the number is the

448
00:26:38,759 --> 00:26:41,799
number in the stock right, But why it goes up

449
00:26:43,039 --> 00:26:45,759
is a lot more complex. I'm interesting, because you know

450
00:26:46,079 --> 00:26:50,119
our governments behind the scenes buying equities or or when

451
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:52,839
they keep them interest rates at artificially low levels, and

452
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:56,119
that raises the price of financial assets like stocks. Is

453
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:58,759
that real? You know? And I think it's not. I

454
00:26:58,799 --> 00:27:04,160
think financial sets have been artificially elevated for thirty or

455
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:09,359
forty years now. So when the the revaluation to actual

456
00:27:09,519 --> 00:27:14,559
intrinsic value happens, it's going to be pretty brutal. Yeah,

457
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:16,759
we need to be short. That leeds to an extent

458
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:25,880
somewhere somehow. I'm gradually buying Nasdaq good options and deeply

459
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:30,880
but it's slightly out of the money, but to minimize

460
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:34,680
the premium to an extent at least. And all of

461
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:38,680
them are underwater right now except for the most recent one.

462
00:27:38,759 --> 00:27:40,480
That's the only one that's up. And that's the way

463
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:42,039
I how that that works. When when you kind of

464
00:27:42,079 --> 00:27:46,920
throw very into a short position, Yeah, the recent one

465
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:50,079
makes you all the money, and that offsets the older

466
00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:52,480
ones that have lost so much that you can't get

467
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:53,960
back to even on them.

468
00:27:54,640 --> 00:28:01,920
Speaker 3: But that's what's his name to lobbies, a theory of

469
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:05,279
black swan because you keep buying these out of the

470
00:28:05,279 --> 00:28:10,119
money puts like you keep buying them and they keep

471
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:12,519
expiring worthless until one day.

472
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:17,880
Speaker 1: They're worth a ton of money, or like Beiederman. Do

473
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:18,799
you remember Beiederman?

474
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:22,680
Speaker 3: He was a metals guy like fifteen years ago kind

475
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:25,200
of when I got started in this, and he said,

476
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:27,960
silver is the worst asset in the world.

477
00:28:28,039 --> 00:28:28,799
Speaker 1: It's horrible.

478
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:31,680
Speaker 3: No one in their right mind would buy it, except

479
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:35,160
that one day you will wake up and silver will

480
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:37,640
become the best performing asset in the world and you'll

481
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:40,640
be glad you had it, which is still waiting, but

482
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:42,440
it looks like that day is getting closer.

483
00:28:42,519 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 1: Right. Oh, absolutely, When the Fed starts panic cutting and

484
00:28:47,359 --> 00:28:51,440
interest rates get back down towards zero, then silver will

485
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:53,119
outperform gold dramatically.

486
00:28:53,279 --> 00:28:55,799
Speaker 3: So yeah, you got it on silver. Okay, So we

487
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,960
had a little mini crash. I don't really consider this

488
00:28:59,039 --> 00:29:03,079
a crash. I think it was hedge fund induced trying

489
00:29:03,079 --> 00:29:05,920
to screw with the election. Just what happened in eighth

490
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:09,799
nine when the hedge fund trains out hundreds of billions

491
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:14,759
of dollars from the money market funds, they collapse cascading collapse,

492
00:29:15,119 --> 00:29:20,880
and then we had the Great financial collapse. But there's

493
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:25,200
a theory that the collapsing yen carry trade may have

494
00:29:25,319 --> 00:29:28,680
caused it. First explained for me and for those of

495
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:31,599
you listening, what is the carry trade?

496
00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:34,559
Speaker 1: John? Yeah, And I think it's the culprit this time around.

497
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:38,640
So basically the carry trade is a few years ago,

498
00:29:39,079 --> 00:29:42,960
Japan had incredibly low interest rates, like zero point five

499
00:29:43,039 --> 00:29:45,599
percent you could borrow, yeah, a half a percentage point.

500
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:48,240
But the rest of the world had really low interest

501
00:29:48,319 --> 00:29:52,119
rates too. But then the US and Europe started raising

502
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:56,599
their interest rates and that created this this really juicy

503
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,359
spread where you can buy in for point five percent

504
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:02,240
because Japan did not raise their rates, and then you

505
00:30:02,319 --> 00:30:05,960
invest that money in US Treasury bonds for four point

506
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:09,720
five percent, and you make a four percent spread for

507
00:30:09,839 --> 00:30:14,160
basically just a couple of mouse clicks. Risk free. Yeah yeah,

508
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:18,079
well people thought it was risk free. But then Japan,

509
00:30:18,319 --> 00:30:21,160
by keeping their interest rates so low for so long,

510
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:23,839
started to affect the value of the end and it

511
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:26,920
started to plunge. You know, everybody else had high interest rates,

512
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,680
Japan had low interest rates. It made the end less

513
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:33,920
attractive for certain groups to own, and so the end

514
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:37,079
started to fall in a disorderly way. Japan had to

515
00:30:37,119 --> 00:30:41,000
step in and prop up the end, and that made

516
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:43,759
first of all, made the end go up versus the dollar,

517
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:46,839
and it made Japanese interest rates go up, so it

518
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:50,640
blew up the carry trade. All of a sudden, you're

519
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:54,400
not paying that loan back in depreciated y end. You're

520
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:56,920
paying it back in appreciated yen. In other words, that

521
00:30:57,039 --> 00:30:58,440
loan that you thought you were going to make four

522
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:00,720
or five percent unch, it's going to cost you fifteen

523
00:31:00,799 --> 00:31:04,279
or twenty percent. And you did it with size. You know,

524
00:31:04,319 --> 00:31:07,359
you did one hundred million dollars or whatever if you're

525
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:09,640
a hedge fund. Well, in the aggregate, it was a

526
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:13,799
trillion or so dollars. Some analysts think, so you've got

527
00:31:13,839 --> 00:31:18,519
a trillion or so dollars worth of carry trades blowing

528
00:31:18,599 --> 00:31:22,119
up out there, and that means that you know, people

529
00:31:22,119 --> 00:31:23,839
are having to sell their stocks to come up with

530
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:27,599
the margin calls on these things, and that affected all

531
00:31:27,759 --> 00:31:31,759
the financial assets out there, and that's what blew up

532
00:31:31,759 --> 00:31:34,319
the stock market just lately here because you know, you

533
00:31:34,359 --> 00:31:38,960
saw the Japanese stock market tank first, and for a

534
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:42,319
few days it was fallen by like nine percent of day,

535
00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:45,160
you know, trading decks, and then the NATASDAK and the

536
00:31:45,279 --> 00:31:47,319
US collapse, and that pulled the rest of the US

537
00:31:47,359 --> 00:31:50,960
stock market dent. So it would not I think it's

538
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:52,799
a safe bet that it was the end carry trade

539
00:31:52,799 --> 00:31:56,160
blowing up that caused this problem. But the important thing

540
00:31:56,400 --> 00:32:00,079
is there is no fix. If you're Japan, yes you

541
00:32:00,079 --> 00:32:03,119
you can bring your your currency back up, but to

542
00:32:03,119 --> 00:32:05,079
do that you have to sell all your dollars to

543
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:08,440
buy in, and then your porgn ex change reserves are

544
00:32:08,559 --> 00:32:12,319
drain and your government is still borrowing insane amounts of money.

545
00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:15,440
So then you have you have inflation, or you have

546
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:19,599
a crashing currency, or you have a bankrupt government. You know,

547
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:25,359
you can't get out of this without a gigantic existential crisis.

548
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:29,039
And that's what people are realizing right now because yeah, okay,

549
00:32:29,079 --> 00:32:32,119
maybe we stop the carnage in the stock market, we

550
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:35,400
actually didn't fix any of the underlying problems ever do

551
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:41,680
the financial system. Yeah, so that's the crackup boom that

552
00:32:41,799 --> 00:32:43,759
we've got ahead of us at some point in the

553
00:32:43,799 --> 00:32:45,599
not too distant future. And this was like a little

554
00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:48,000
mini version of that. But it's going to be much

555
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:51,279
bigger when it happens, because a trillion dollars will be

556
00:32:51,319 --> 00:32:56,359
a rounding error when the actual crackup boom happens, So

557
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:59,440
it'll be it'll be tens or you know, more than

558
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:03,359
that of trillions of dollars of financial assets all blowing

559
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:06,839
up at once. And that's that's if we avoid World

560
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:10,599
War three, right, I remember that World War All these

561
00:33:10,599 --> 00:33:15,400
three almost financial predictions are only if we survived in

562
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:16,680
order to see them happen.

563
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 3: I think there's a stealth carry trade that we don't

564
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:25,400
know anything about, and I think it involves options, and

565
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:31,640
it involves buying Japanese government debt, bringing that over here,

566
00:33:32,119 --> 00:33:36,319
collateralizing it to buy US debt, and then you never

567
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:39,680
have to go through the currency translations. You've got a

568
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:43,160
secured asset. You know, you probably could. I don't know

569
00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:45,400
that the FED will take it, but any bank will

570
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:50,799
take it and basically give you a US treasuries and

571
00:33:50,839 --> 00:33:53,960
then you know, you never had to go changing money

572
00:33:54,039 --> 00:33:56,799
or anything, you know. I think there's a lot of

573
00:33:56,839 --> 00:34:00,559
ways that's been played that nobody knows about. And when

574
00:34:00,599 --> 00:34:04,640
it blew up, it blew up not so much what

575
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,759
we could see, but what we didn't see. And that's

576
00:34:07,799 --> 00:34:11,760
why you know, Japanese but somehow it just writed itself

577
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:14,719
in three days, John, and then well we can do now.

578
00:34:15,199 --> 00:34:17,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's amazing what we can do in the short run.

579
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:21,280
And we shouldn't forget their derivatives out there are going

580
00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:24,079
on a quadrillion dollars space value of derivatives, some of

581
00:34:24,119 --> 00:34:28,079
which are interest rate sensitives, some of which are currency sensitive.

582
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:32,440
So yeah, the ramifications of the stuff we can see

583
00:34:32,519 --> 00:34:34,960
are dwarfed by what happens to the stuff that we

584
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:38,920
can't see until, you know, until there's an announcement that

585
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:42,280
JP Morgan Chase is going under because of their derivatives

586
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:44,639
book and the government is stepping in to bail them out.

587
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:48,119
Then oh yeah, derivatives, that's right, I remember that from

588
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:49,360
two thousand and eight.

589
00:34:49,559 --> 00:34:53,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, it doesn't mean anything until it means something. In

590
00:34:53,159 --> 00:34:57,760
the meantime, silver is trading at twenty seven bucks the

591
00:34:57,880 --> 00:34:58,800
ounce a.

592
00:34:58,719 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 1: Little bit more.

593
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 3: Twenty eight gold, you know, broke the twenty five hundred market.

594
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:09,920
I think I'm looking at the right app and hey,

595
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:15,800
we got merger activity now. Last last subject, miners Neumont

596
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:21,039
had blowout first quarter earnings. I almost bought some options

597
00:35:21,079 --> 00:35:23,199
on it, like three weeks ago, but of course I

598
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:27,159
didn't kick myself to trading at forty nine bucks. It

599
00:35:27,199 --> 00:35:31,679
was a forty two bucks three weeks ago. And then

600
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:36,559
Anglo Gold just bought a Cisco mining sixty five percent premium,

601
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:41,440
and everybody's a buzz about it. You know, just talked

602
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:45,320
to a junior mining company, one of the real quality

603
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:48,639
issues out there, and they're like ecstatic because they just

604
00:35:48,679 --> 00:35:54,199
had a huge find. And now all of a sudden,

605
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:57,480
the majors are waking up from their stupor saying we

606
00:35:57,559 --> 00:35:59,920
need to start buying juniors because we don't have enough

607
00:36:01,159 --> 00:36:04,320
you know, production for the future. We're going to be

608
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:06,840
going under or dramatically contracting.

609
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:12,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, but well that's what you get when the thing

610
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:15,880
you sell goes up in price, right, And that's what

611
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:20,320
happened with gold. And the price of gold in the

612
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:23,119
second quarter of this year was about seventeen percent higher

613
00:36:23,119 --> 00:36:25,960
than it was in the second quarter of twenty twenty three,

614
00:36:26,079 --> 00:36:29,079
so that gave the big gold miners a nice pop

615
00:36:29,079 --> 00:36:31,840
in revenues. A lot of that fell down to the

616
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:34,199
bottom line, so it was either a free cash flow

617
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:39,440
or net earnings that were both one way up. And

618
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:44,320
what happens then, you know, when big miners are seeing

619
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:48,639
rising free cash flow, they initially help out their shareholders

620
00:36:48,679 --> 00:36:52,800
immediately with the you know, dividend increases or share buybacks. Yeah,

621
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:55,159
but then that cash flow is still coming and so

622
00:36:55,199 --> 00:36:57,119
they started looking around and thinking, wow, I could build

623
00:36:57,119 --> 00:36:59,119
an empire, you know, I could be bigger than this

624
00:36:59,199 --> 00:37:01,840
guy who smaller than him. Now, but let me make

625
00:37:02,079 --> 00:37:05,159
just a couple of acquisitions, and I'll be the one

626
00:37:05,199 --> 00:37:08,159
not taking his calls, you know. And and so I start.

627
00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:12,159
They started empire building and and like you said, legitimately

628
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:17,119
rebuilding their resource basis. And they do that by buying out,

629
00:37:17,519 --> 00:37:22,159
buying up the really good quality explorers and junior producers

630
00:37:22,519 --> 00:37:24,719
who were big enough to move the needle for a

631
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:29,840
big company. H And Osisco that, as you mentioned, was

632
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:32,199
brought out by Anglo Gold for a really nice premium,

633
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:34,960
sixty some percent one day to the next in that stock.

634
00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:40,360
And it's just a really good quality resource that Osisco

635
00:37:40,519 --> 00:37:45,880
has delineated. And that's not a company maker for somebody

636
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:48,079
like Anglo, but it's a really good They called it

637
00:37:48,119 --> 00:37:51,079
a bolt on acquisition. You know. You just add that

638
00:37:51,119 --> 00:37:53,760
to your other reserves and everything looks great. You don't

639
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:56,760
miss a beat, you know. And so there's a lot

640
00:37:56,920 --> 00:38:02,719
of small miners and explorers who aren't producing yet, but

641
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:05,440
who found a lot of gold in the ground. Who

642
00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:09,840
are you know, in the conversation of who's next after

643
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:12,320
a Cisco? You know, when once people saw that kind

644
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:15,360
of a premium, then they want to know who hasn't

645
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:18,480
gone up yet, but who is capable of being bought

646
00:38:18,519 --> 00:38:21,280
out for that? And there's a bunch, So let a

647
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:25,760
couple more deals like that happen and the junior mining

648
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:29,119
space will be a very exciting place to be. So again,

649
00:38:29,159 --> 00:38:31,639
here's hoping that would be very cool because I owned

650
00:38:31,679 --> 00:38:34,199
a lot of beating up junior miners. You know that

651
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:36,440
it would be nice to see them just to get

652
00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:38,760
back to or I paid for them. But you know,

653
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:41,960
another sixty or one hundred percent or whatever on top

654
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:44,039
of that would still feel good in the short run.

655
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:49,079
Speaker 3: And we shall also mention that Neumont up their dividend.

656
00:38:49,440 --> 00:38:54,599
You know, between Numont and Barrack and Ignika, they're all

657
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:58,360
giving a two percent yield. Now. So when a company

658
00:38:58,599 --> 00:39:02,159
like has already haing a dividend and they start getting

659
00:39:02,199 --> 00:39:06,199
all this excess cash flow, you know that they can't

660
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:10,599
reinvest because there's only so many decent juniors out there,

661
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:13,039
and they don't want to go so far out in

662
00:39:13,159 --> 00:39:17,559
the junior space that they're just basically speculating with the public, right,

663
00:39:18,199 --> 00:39:21,280
So they all go for sure things they're going to

664
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:24,440
be up in their dividend, and if gold goes up

665
00:39:24,639 --> 00:39:27,599
twenty five hundred three thousand bucks, a lot of that

666
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:30,119
cash flow is going to find its way into dividends.

667
00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:35,079
You'll see them, you know, yielding huge dividends. Again, Yeah,

668
00:39:35,079 --> 00:39:36,639
that makes them good byes.

669
00:39:36,679 --> 00:39:38,840
Speaker 1: But you know what, you can get those big stocks

670
00:39:39,239 --> 00:39:42,320
in one of the ETFs that own the big stocks,

671
00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:44,400
and in that space, you know there's rot has one

672
00:39:44,599 --> 00:39:46,679
and then GDX is another one. You just buy that

673
00:39:46,800 --> 00:39:51,320
and then you get Agnico Eagle and yeah, it's true.

674
00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:55,119
Who do I want to say, who's the gold right? Oh, Berrick,

675
00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:58,400
you get Peric, Yeah, you get those guys. So incident,

676
00:39:58,639 --> 00:40:02,760
you don't really have to analyze the big gold miners because,

677
00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:04,239
first of all, it's really hard to do because they've

678
00:40:04,239 --> 00:40:07,400
got ten different world class minds spread out all over

679
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:10,519
the world. Oh, Reggae in person can make sense of that.

680
00:40:11,159 --> 00:40:14,639
But so you just buy those stocks via a large

681
00:40:14,679 --> 00:40:18,480
gold miner ETF and you're instantly exposed to them.

682
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:22,559
Speaker 3: Yeah, that has a lot of advantages buying ETFs. We

683
00:40:22,599 --> 00:40:26,039
won't get into that now in any event. That is

684
00:40:26,079 --> 00:40:31,039
it for today. Hopefully we'll catch up before I get well,

685
00:40:31,079 --> 00:40:33,880
we definitely will, but make sure you go over to

686
00:40:34,039 --> 00:40:40,000
John's Substackorbido dot substack dot com our site, Financial Survival

687
00:40:40,119 --> 00:40:44,480
Network dot com subscribe and John. If you got any

688
00:40:44,559 --> 00:40:47,480
questions for John or myself, shoot me an email kl

689
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:49,440
at Carrie Let's dot com.

690
00:40:49,519 --> 00:40:52,320
Speaker 1: John, We'll catch up to you in a few weeks. Great, Krey,

691
00:40:52,639 --> 00:40:53,280
talk to you soon.

692
00:40:53,519 --> 00:40:57,679
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Lets's Financial Survival Network your

693
00:40:57,760 --> 00:41:01,559
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to

694
00:41:01,760 --> 00:41:07,960
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,