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See don't miss a single episode. 16 00:00:59.200 --> 00:01:01.920 Hello everyone, and welcome to another episode of eyes On. 17 00:01:02.240 --> 00:01:04.719 I'm Andy Mulburn, I'm Jason. 18 00:01:04.519 --> 00:01:07.840 Lyons, dimeach contacos deee. 19 00:01:07.840 --> 00:01:09.120 What do we have lined up today? 20 00:01:09.280 --> 00:01:12.239 It's a lot of cooking first and foremost. We were 21 00:01:12.239 --> 00:01:15.120 talking before the show about what's going on. It looks 22 00:01:15.480 --> 00:01:18.760 it seems like there's going to be an imminent attack 23 00:01:18.879 --> 00:01:21.239 on Iran from Israel. 24 00:01:24.159 --> 00:01:27.599 Yeah, that's already publicized. Yes, old news, that's not an 25 00:01:27.640 --> 00:01:33.159 open source sadly, Yeah, no, exactly right, that is, you know, 26 00:01:33.239 --> 00:01:35.879 that's that's part of this story. But the attack itself 27 00:01:36.439 --> 00:01:39.480 now is not the main story. The main story is 28 00:01:39.920 --> 00:01:43.319 the fact that news of such an attack was leaked 29 00:01:43.359 --> 00:01:48.400 to number one and number two, that the US administration 30 00:01:49.719 --> 00:01:55.319 is staying or not actually when I say that, not publicly, 31 00:01:56.159 --> 00:01:59.480 but that they are that you know, they are confident 32 00:01:59.560 --> 00:02:06.079 that it's will not attack either nuclear facilities or Iran's 33 00:02:06.319 --> 00:02:10.719 oil infrastructure or reserves, which were the two, you know, 34 00:02:10.759 --> 00:02:14.360 the two big questions, because we didn't want a global 35 00:02:14.439 --> 00:02:20.039 economy to be sent down the toilet, and also you know, 36 00:02:20.240 --> 00:02:26.000 the obvious escalatory ramifications with going after nuclear facilities. Now, 37 00:02:26.039 --> 00:02:31.240 whether we changed metna Who's mind remains to be seen. 38 00:02:31.280 --> 00:02:33.719 In other words, whether this was really a mind change, 39 00:02:33.759 --> 00:02:36.439 or whether he'd already resolved to do what he's going 40 00:02:36.479 --> 00:02:41.240 to do and avoid those two things, or who knows 41 00:02:41.280 --> 00:02:44.120 whether the you know, the extreme right within Israel will 42 00:02:44.159 --> 00:02:48.319 still sway him into taking stronger action, although that does, 43 00:02:48.560 --> 00:02:53.120 you know, admittedly seem unlikely. So so one, you know, 44 00:02:53.680 --> 00:02:56.360 I suppose, I mean, it's so difficult when you are 45 00:02:56.400 --> 00:03:00.400 tracing the cause and effect in this type of thing, 46 00:03:00.759 --> 00:03:03.879 and I'm not trying to do so by mentioning the 47 00:03:04.120 --> 00:03:09.319 his bolodrone attack that exploded near Netnil Who's home on 48 00:03:10.319 --> 00:03:14.479 the nineteenth. He's got like a country home out in Caesar, 49 00:03:14.520 --> 00:03:20.360 a very nice place, and you know it, neither he 50 00:03:20.560 --> 00:03:22.680 nor his wife, no members of his family were home. 51 00:03:22.800 --> 00:03:26.080 The blaster did hit the house, calls damage, no casualties. 52 00:03:26.759 --> 00:03:31.840 But he takes these things. He takes these things very personally. 53 00:03:31.960 --> 00:03:37.479 And there was an incident back in twenty nineteen when 54 00:03:38.800 --> 00:03:44.680 he was he was talking to an audience and an 55 00:03:44.759 --> 00:03:48.000 attack by a rocket attack by I think it was 56 00:03:48.039 --> 00:03:52.879 Palestine in the Islamic Jihad. Yes, it was definitely interrupted 57 00:03:53.080 --> 00:03:55.800 this political rally and he had been rushed off the 58 00:03:55.840 --> 00:04:01.280 stage by his bodyguards. And the photographs were in Israeli. Okay, now, 59 00:04:01.879 --> 00:04:03.800 you know a lot of people would think, okay, that's 60 00:04:03.840 --> 00:04:06.719 that's kind of cool as leader of the country being 61 00:04:06.759 --> 00:04:09.439 shown also to share the same dangers as their people. 62 00:04:10.199 --> 00:04:12.520 But this isn't what who wants. He doesn't want to 63 00:04:12.520 --> 00:04:15.479 share the same dangers, and he found those, you know, 64 00:04:15.520 --> 00:04:24.279 the pictures back then very humiliating and and apparently he 65 00:04:25.240 --> 00:04:27.160 you know, he drove to the headquarters they carry at 66 00:04:27.160 --> 00:04:30.800 the headquarters of the Israeli Defense Ministry and ordered the 67 00:04:30.879 --> 00:04:34.959 killing of Islamic jihad leader Bajo Abu al Atta right 68 00:04:34.959 --> 00:04:38.720 twenty nineteen. So you know, my point is he makes 69 00:04:38.800 --> 00:04:44.920 decisions reflexibly based on on frets to himself personally. So 70 00:04:45.000 --> 00:04:48.639 let's not discount that that attack, you know, and the 71 00:04:48.639 --> 00:04:54.879 effect of that attack. That having been said that, you know, 72 00:04:55.000 --> 00:05:01.199 these mysterious Israeli and American security sources who keep discussing 73 00:05:01.319 --> 00:05:06.439 things in sidebars to the media are apparently saying that 74 00:05:06.480 --> 00:05:11.439 there is a US Israeli understanding it's been reached, promising 75 00:05:11.439 --> 00:05:16.000 to reward Israel from refraining from attacking Iran soy industry 76 00:05:16.199 --> 00:05:22.879 and nuclear power infrastructure, and in return, the conversation is 77 00:05:22.879 --> 00:05:25.800 going to include lifting US suspension of certain arms and 78 00:05:25.839 --> 00:05:30.920 ammunition shipments to Israel and even accelerating their supply right 79 00:05:31.279 --> 00:05:36.480 to include the famous D nine bulldozer, which has been 80 00:05:36.560 --> 00:05:40.319 a mainstay of Israeli operations in Gata. Indeed, you know 81 00:05:40.360 --> 00:05:43.639 the D Nines, the D nine. As anyone has been 82 00:05:44.000 --> 00:05:47.879 involved in an urban fight in the last two decades, 83 00:05:48.279 --> 00:05:50.360 the D nine will tell you. Anyone will tell you 84 00:05:50.360 --> 00:05:53.279 it's worth its weight in gold. It's like a combat bulldozer, 85 00:05:53.800 --> 00:05:58.240 and it has multiple uses, and it is in many 86 00:05:58.279 --> 00:06:01.879 ways more useful than it tank that in those environments. 87 00:06:01.920 --> 00:06:04.519 The only thing that lacks, of course, is a significant 88 00:06:04.519 --> 00:06:08.480 direct fire ability capability. But now that the you know, 89 00:06:08.879 --> 00:06:11.480 there's so many ways to protect such a thing, especially 90 00:06:11.519 --> 00:06:13.240 in an environment like Garza. 91 00:06:13.360 --> 00:06:13.680 It is. 92 00:06:15.240 --> 00:06:23.720 It is a it's an iconic, ah and very effective weapon. 93 00:06:24.800 --> 00:06:28.560 Although perhaps we're not going to see a rush to 94 00:06:28.639 --> 00:06:32.240 be a D nine bulldoz a driver anytime soon in 95 00:06:32.639 --> 00:06:38.759 the U us MS lineup, But in any case, so 96 00:06:38.800 --> 00:06:45.120 they are also involved in the apparently in this agreement 97 00:06:45.160 --> 00:06:50.199 to provide compensation for the Israeli restraint has been an 98 00:06:50.199 --> 00:06:52.800 agreement to step up US attacks on hoof you weapons 99 00:06:52.800 --> 00:06:57.759 depots and other strategic targets and Yemen. Cynics might say, 100 00:06:57.800 --> 00:06:59.759 for what it's worth, you know, for all the good 101 00:06:59.800 --> 00:07:02.600 that has done to date, but there is a feeling 102 00:07:02.639 --> 00:07:06.680 now that those are becoming in recently effectives as US 103 00:07:06.680 --> 00:07:11.759 intelligence perhaps gets get gets a little more acute, you know, 104 00:07:11.800 --> 00:07:15.560 on a topic that we have discussed here and and 105 00:07:15.600 --> 00:07:19.240 the US has already you know. The last strike we 106 00:07:19.319 --> 00:07:24.120 did was this on the sixteenth, I think too, and 107 00:07:24.160 --> 00:07:26.720 it was yeah, that's right. And then they went off 108 00:07:26.720 --> 00:07:31.519 for the major Hoofy weapons depot and by all accounts 109 00:07:31.639 --> 00:07:35.079 was effective. So we shall see and maybe I should 110 00:07:35.079 --> 00:07:38.839 not be a synic about our ability to suppress the Hoofees. 111 00:07:38.720 --> 00:07:41.839 And a little bit that be to know that B 112 00:07:41.920 --> 00:07:45.120 two hit. There was talk about it being more of 113 00:07:45.240 --> 00:07:49.120 like a strategic play showing Iran, like hey, because like 114 00:07:49.120 --> 00:07:54.120 why we use B two's yeah for hate Goofy targets. 115 00:07:55.360 --> 00:07:57.480 I just wanted to point that out because like what happened, 116 00:07:57.480 --> 00:07:59.560 people were talking about how it's like a strategic move 117 00:07:59.600 --> 00:08:01.319 to show Ran, like hey, what's what's what? 118 00:08:01.639 --> 00:08:02.560 Like we're here? 119 00:08:03.399 --> 00:08:05.480 Yeah, I think there were I think there were three reasons. 120 00:08:05.560 --> 00:08:08.480 One was iron. Second was Israel to show hey, look 121 00:08:08.480 --> 00:08:12.560 we're you know, we really are serious about that and 122 00:08:12.720 --> 00:08:15.680 israelis now care about the whois because the Houthis had 123 00:08:15.759 --> 00:08:19.319 been striking into Israel a limited success, but they did 124 00:08:19.360 --> 00:08:22.600 get a missile into Tel Aviv, which was symbolically a 125 00:08:22.639 --> 00:08:31.120 big deal and inflicted a inflicted casualties, but the well 126 00:08:31.160 --> 00:08:35.320 was yeah. So those two reasons and then the third reason, 127 00:08:35.360 --> 00:08:37.399 of course, is that if you're a B two pilot, 128 00:08:37.639 --> 00:08:40.279 you're watching your career go down the ship it because 129 00:08:40.679 --> 00:08:44.919 all your compadres are, you know, are getting plenty of 130 00:08:45.240 --> 00:08:48.440 trigger time or togal time or whatever they call it 131 00:08:48.480 --> 00:08:50.519 in the Air Force. And you know, even even the 132 00:08:50.600 --> 00:08:54.200 drone dudes you know in NALYS are are getting PTSD 133 00:08:54.399 --> 00:08:58.519 and stuff and medals galore, whereas the B two guys 134 00:08:58.519 --> 00:09:01.440 are stuck in that way where they's stuck in that base. 135 00:09:01.240 --> 00:09:08.480 In the Missouri I mean Middle East, Midwest, yeah, Missouri, Yeah, 136 00:09:08.799 --> 00:09:11.799 and and there's nothing to relieve their their routine. 137 00:09:12.000 --> 00:09:14.840 So I think you know that I'm only half joking 138 00:09:14.879 --> 00:09:18.399 here that plate played into a Tomb'm sure there was 139 00:09:18.440 --> 00:09:22.320 a B two pilot, senior B two pilot involved in 140 00:09:22.360 --> 00:09:25.679 the planning of this whole thing, I mean, the strategic 141 00:09:25.720 --> 00:09:30.360 level decision to use that platform. And then you know, 142 00:09:30.399 --> 00:09:35.360 on the topic of compensation, uh, the Pentagon is said 143 00:09:35.440 --> 00:09:38.240 to be considering all right. I love that vague phrase. 144 00:09:39.519 --> 00:09:42.919 Deployment of a second fad anti missile battery in Israel 145 00:09:43.120 --> 00:09:46.240 and fad IS is also a big deal. You know, 146 00:09:46.279 --> 00:09:50.039 the Israelis, their their three tier air defense system is 147 00:09:50.120 --> 00:09:55.559 effective but not effective enough to you know, to stand 148 00:09:55.559 --> 00:09:58.879 against another onslaught, perhaps like the one that aren't sent 149 00:09:59.120 --> 00:10:02.200 by itself. All right, Israel knows it's never going to 150 00:10:02.240 --> 00:10:05.159 have to do that by itself. But nevertheless, you know, 151 00:10:05.240 --> 00:10:08.320 I don't everyone's aware that perhaps it has not seen 152 00:10:08.399 --> 00:10:11.679 its full saturation where there is an external attack and 153 00:10:11.720 --> 00:10:14.080 then you have two internal groups. Has Bono in her 154 00:10:14.080 --> 00:10:17.440 mass attacking Israel at the same time, a possibility that 155 00:10:17.879 --> 00:10:21.759 until recently seemed very likely but now seems increasingly unlikely 156 00:10:21.799 --> 00:10:25.200 because neither her mask nor his Bolla is probably capable 157 00:10:25.240 --> 00:10:28.519 of launching physically capable launching such an attack in Iran 158 00:10:28.879 --> 00:10:31.879 just doesn't you know, there's nothing to benefit Iran by 159 00:10:31.919 --> 00:10:34.840 doing so. And if you look at all of the 160 00:10:35.919 --> 00:10:38.799 rhetoric coming out of Tehran now, it is de escalatory. 161 00:10:39.039 --> 00:10:40.960 You know, that's the last thing Iran wants is to 162 00:10:41.000 --> 00:10:45.919 go to war right now. So the fad battery, yeah, symbolic, 163 00:10:46.000 --> 00:10:50.039 but on the other hand, it does it really does 164 00:10:50.159 --> 00:10:55.799 bolster an element of what the Israeli is used to 165 00:10:55.840 --> 00:10:59.559 be concerned about, being one of their critical vulnerabilities, the 166 00:11:00.559 --> 00:11:05.759 defense they're vulnerability to being overwhelmed by a mass simultaneous attack. 167 00:11:09.480 --> 00:11:11.200 So what are the Israelis going to attack? 168 00:11:11.320 --> 00:11:13.159 I like, yeah, so you said, like it's gonna be 169 00:11:13.240 --> 00:11:15.720 a bit of like an and dyne like kind of attack, 170 00:11:15.799 --> 00:11:18.519 right because we've paid them off. Isn't it a bit 171 00:11:18.559 --> 00:11:22.159 crazy that we're basically or expediting what we were gonna 172 00:11:22.159 --> 00:11:25.720 give them already, that we're talking them off the ledge 173 00:11:25.720 --> 00:11:28.799 of like hitting nuclear facilities or oil fields or whatever, 174 00:11:29.159 --> 00:11:33.440 or like a real deal attack with. 175 00:11:33.440 --> 00:11:38.840 Just uh, you know, arms Like, isn't that nuts? 176 00:11:38.960 --> 00:11:41.360 Or I mean, it's probably the way we do business anyway, 177 00:11:41.519 --> 00:11:45.039 like in the world, but it seems like we're being 178 00:11:45.159 --> 00:11:46.320 very blase about it. 179 00:11:47.159 --> 00:11:50.559 Yeah, I think, I know, I think it's far from nuts, 180 00:11:50.840 --> 00:11:52.360 you know, I mean I think, I mean, if you 181 00:11:52.399 --> 00:11:55.639 look at at some of the best US foreign policy 182 00:11:56.320 --> 00:11:58.320 of the ages, you know, going all the way back 183 00:11:58.360 --> 00:12:03.960 to to the early part of the twentieth century Middle 184 00:12:03.960 --> 00:12:08.720 East in the interactions Middle East history, the you know, 185 00:12:08.759 --> 00:12:13.360 the current the stick. The current stick's always been something 186 00:12:13.360 --> 00:12:16.519 that we use with effective diplomas, seeing we know, persuasion 187 00:12:16.559 --> 00:12:19.240 by itself doesn't matter at all, and it matters doesn't 188 00:12:19.279 --> 00:12:23.320 count much at all, especially arguably as the United States 189 00:12:23.360 --> 00:12:28.039 that our position in the world stage becomes some would 190 00:12:28.039 --> 00:12:30.879 say less prominent, right, and we are no longer the 191 00:12:31.000 --> 00:12:36.279 indispensable ally to Israel that we thought we once were. 192 00:12:36.679 --> 00:12:39.919 You know, I think Israeli is our son who think, hey, 193 00:12:39.919 --> 00:12:42.840 we can do this by ourselves, and especially now with 194 00:12:42.960 --> 00:12:46.759 its leak, you know, we we the United States Alliance 195 00:12:46.840 --> 00:12:50.639 may does seem, especially the right wing Israelis as more 196 00:12:50.679 --> 00:12:55.799 of a liability than a help. And so I suppose 197 00:12:55.879 --> 00:12:59.399 under the principle of striking while the iron is hot, 198 00:13:00.120 --> 00:13:05.559 Secretary of State Blinker Anthony Blinkin arrived in Israel yesterday 199 00:13:05.879 --> 00:13:10.759 morning and his first stop in the regional tour. But 200 00:13:11.000 --> 00:13:15.600 clearly he's there to not just monitor Israeli preparation for 201 00:13:15.639 --> 00:13:19.720 a possible tag, but but but to limit its extent. 202 00:13:20.840 --> 00:13:23.759 And you know, he's probably arguing that, you know, having 203 00:13:23.840 --> 00:13:28.759 killed the heads of both Iran's main range regional proxies 204 00:13:28.799 --> 00:13:33.360 in recent weeks, his Bolla Chief Israela and hermas Had 205 00:13:33.600 --> 00:13:37.679 yahwah Simha, the parts are now clear for Israel to 206 00:13:37.679 --> 00:13:40.440 reach arrangements ending the war on all fronts. So that's 207 00:13:40.440 --> 00:13:43.720 what Israel wants to do, you know. So so in 208 00:13:43.799 --> 00:13:46.159 a sense, I hate say the region has reached this 209 00:13:46.799 --> 00:13:51.879 decision point or a historic crossroads. But in the sense 210 00:13:51.879 --> 00:13:55.000 it has you know, I mean, according to you know, 211 00:13:55.120 --> 00:13:58.600 Israeli assessments, Hasbala wants to win the war, all right, 212 00:13:58.679 --> 00:14:01.799 not even then, you know, even in two thousand and 213 00:14:01.919 --> 00:14:04.440 six that that message was that they weren't getting such 214 00:14:04.480 --> 00:14:08.519 a clear message. But they've now been dealt the worst 215 00:14:08.519 --> 00:14:12.840 blow in their history. Uh and and and you know 216 00:14:12.879 --> 00:14:17.039 they're exhausted. Iran wants to end it, as I pointed out. 217 00:14:17.159 --> 00:14:20.639 And Hamas has stopped functioning as a government or a 218 00:14:20.639 --> 00:14:24.120 military body. It's got no leadership at all, all right, 219 00:14:24.200 --> 00:14:30.840 Marmwood Cinema. Unlikely you know, or I mentioned his name 220 00:14:31.000 --> 00:14:35.399 is Sinmar's brother because he's he's the most extreme of 221 00:14:35.440 --> 00:14:39.559 those who are left. But he's very deep somewhere in Gaza, 222 00:14:39.759 --> 00:14:43.799 either alive or dead, and has no influence. So the 223 00:14:43.840 --> 00:14:47.200 authority has defaulted to the political leadership. 224 00:14:47.720 --> 00:14:51.440 And they have always been more moderate than you know, 225 00:14:51.480 --> 00:14:58.000 than the military leadership of Hamas, so or situated or 226 00:14:58.000 --> 00:15:01.120 you know, from a point of view of his Israel's adversaries. 227 00:15:01.159 --> 00:15:04.759 Things seem right now, you know, see, things seem to 228 00:15:04.759 --> 00:15:08.120 be in the right place for some kind of settlement, okay, 229 00:15:08.679 --> 00:15:14.480 But all right, black Swan Benivier and the hardliners in 230 00:15:14.720 --> 00:15:19.480 Nefniahu's Likud party who don't want the water to stop 231 00:15:19.559 --> 00:15:22.679 until hisbolla and hamas are crushed to a pole. And 232 00:15:23.360 --> 00:15:27.600 this week on Monday, there was a rally attended by 233 00:15:28.159 --> 00:15:31.720 Benavie and other Knesset members, all right Ben gaver In, 234 00:15:31.720 --> 00:15:35.440 particularly as a Cabinet member, calling for the rebuilding of 235 00:15:35.519 --> 00:15:38.960 Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip, which is ral dismantled 236 00:15:39.000 --> 00:15:41.559 in two thousand and five, in other words, saying, hey, 237 00:15:41.559 --> 00:15:44.440 look now we've purched this whole area, let's move back in. 238 00:15:47.000 --> 00:15:51.440 So and you can't dismiss yeah. I mean, these people 239 00:15:51.440 --> 00:15:55.639 were once a fringe movement within Israeli society, but no longer. 240 00:15:57.120 --> 00:16:03.519 And these kind of meglemannic ambitions you're hearing among your 241 00:16:03.600 --> 00:16:07.639 mainstream politicians like Bendevere, like becos He other guy's Motridge. 242 00:16:07.759 --> 00:16:10.200 And you know, we keep using those two names, but 243 00:16:10.240 --> 00:16:18.720 they represent a sizeable, an influential part of his Rali politics. 244 00:16:19.200 --> 00:16:21.720 And then and then you add to that, okay, so 245 00:16:22.039 --> 00:16:24.120 you know Blncoln's already out there, you add to that 246 00:16:24.320 --> 00:16:33.120 US mediator Amos Hogstein. Okay, he's now on the ground 247 00:16:33.120 --> 00:16:37.000 trying to engineer a deal between Israel and Hezbolla, all right, 248 00:16:37.480 --> 00:16:40.879 and you know, nothing not with a run or anything. 249 00:16:40.879 --> 00:16:45.080 But he's focusing specifically in the local area. And you know, 250 00:16:45.159 --> 00:16:47.879 he's saying that that there needs to be a new 251 00:16:47.919 --> 00:16:51.919 mechanism to enforce you and Resolution seventeen oh one, which 252 00:16:52.000 --> 00:16:55.799 ended the two thousand and six war, which everyone realizes 253 00:16:55.840 --> 00:16:59.240 there needs to be, But the question is who can 254 00:16:59.360 --> 00:17:02.559 enforce that and is it enforceable? Okay, And we've talked 255 00:17:02.600 --> 00:17:05.400 about a little bit that before. Now for the first 256 00:17:05.480 --> 00:17:08.240 time this is from you know, kind of his perspective. 257 00:17:08.279 --> 00:17:11.160 I think now for the first time, the Lebanese government 258 00:17:11.240 --> 00:17:14.319 no longer has the buller constrictor of Hesbala around its neck, 259 00:17:14.599 --> 00:17:18.160 and it can make policy decisions such as enforcing and 260 00:17:18.279 --> 00:17:24.160 internationally agreed mandate without opposition. Okay. That's how the US 261 00:17:24.240 --> 00:17:29.279 is thinking. However, on the ground, a little bit different. Okay. 262 00:17:29.400 --> 00:17:34.319 So the seventeen oh one resolution calls for all aren't 263 00:17:34.400 --> 00:17:37.279 militias to be pulled back north of the Litani River, 264 00:17:38.039 --> 00:17:41.359 and okay, that makes sense, all right, But there's a 265 00:17:41.400 --> 00:17:46.559 couple of couple of reasons why that alone, it's going 266 00:17:46.599 --> 00:17:48.599 to be hard to enforce, and even if they do enforce, 267 00:17:48.640 --> 00:17:51.079 it's not going to be particularly in effective. Okay, effective 268 00:17:51.160 --> 00:17:55.599 Number one is there, you know, the the rank and 269 00:17:55.720 --> 00:17:59.720 file of Hasboala isn't heavily embedded in the towns and 270 00:17:59.759 --> 00:18:03.400 villain is south of Latani. In other words, you know, 271 00:18:03.799 --> 00:18:09.200 you could there are families whose husband and brothers within 272 00:18:09.279 --> 00:18:12.599 that family, all the male members are part of his Bolla, 273 00:18:12.920 --> 00:18:15.200 right and you know they may do other things that 274 00:18:15.279 --> 00:18:17.200 may not be a full time job, but they are 275 00:18:17.440 --> 00:18:19.240 his Boller fighters and for number of them, it is 276 00:18:19.279 --> 00:18:23.359 a full time job, right. So it's more than just 277 00:18:23.839 --> 00:18:26.359 moving a militia north. You know, when you have an 278 00:18:26.480 --> 00:18:30.480 organization like that heavily embedded in the local community. And 279 00:18:30.559 --> 00:18:33.000 number two, you know even I mean obviously with ranges 280 00:18:33.039 --> 00:18:35.720 of the rockets and missiles that his Bolla has now, 281 00:18:36.440 --> 00:18:38.920 most of the long range rockets, those that are surviving 282 00:18:39.079 --> 00:18:41.960 are up north are in the par valley or vicinity 283 00:18:41.960 --> 00:18:44.640 of Bay Route. They're not south of the Latani rivers. 284 00:18:44.680 --> 00:18:50.880 So simply moving people, militias weapons is not going to work. 285 00:18:50.920 --> 00:18:56.640 But what might work is a concerted attempt effort to disarm, 286 00:18:57.000 --> 00:19:01.519 you know, to make disarmed people out of the Latani River, right, 287 00:19:01.720 --> 00:19:06.759 so leave in place, but disarmed, Yeah, I just don't 288 00:19:06.799 --> 00:19:09.039 see how they have any other option to leave them 289 00:19:09.039 --> 00:19:10.359 in place. You know, what are you gonna do. You're 290 00:19:10.359 --> 00:19:12.640 gonna try to drive the whole population north of the 291 00:19:12.680 --> 00:19:17.759 Latani River. And that's not what the resolution says, you know, 292 00:19:17.839 --> 00:19:22.440 but but uh, I mean nevertheless, okay that that's kind 293 00:19:22.440 --> 00:19:25.319 of my Sinicis and the Israelis are still saying we 294 00:19:25.400 --> 00:19:27.680 need an arrangement that moves his baller north of the 295 00:19:27.839 --> 00:19:34.960 Tani River and strengthens the Lebanese central government because if 296 00:19:35.039 --> 00:19:38.680 if seventeen or one is not enforced, then you know, 297 00:19:38.720 --> 00:19:42.839 the Israelis will remain there to to do so, you know, arguably, 298 00:19:42.960 --> 00:19:44.839 although they don't want to obviously, they don't want to 299 00:19:44.880 --> 00:19:50.519 remain there, and then so so his Bolla. But you know, 300 00:19:50.559 --> 00:19:56.160 the advantage though, for the side of of peace. I 301 00:19:56.160 --> 00:19:59.759 guess the advantage here is that his Boller, as I said, 302 00:19:59.759 --> 00:20:06.359 does seen now to want to want to respine, right obviously, 303 00:20:06.799 --> 00:20:09.640 and so you know, if there's any time to do this, 304 00:20:09.759 --> 00:20:15.200 it is now. And at the same time, with Hermas, 305 00:20:15.279 --> 00:20:19.319 there's an opportunity to renew negotiations for a deal. There's 306 00:20:19.440 --> 00:20:22.400 you know, people forget, well not not families of hostages, 307 00:20:22.480 --> 00:20:24.839 but in the States it is sometimes forgot. And there 308 00:20:24.960 --> 00:20:30.200 is still some one hundred and so hostages in Gaza, right, 309 00:20:30.359 --> 00:20:32.680 haven't been recovered one hundred and five I think it is, 310 00:20:34.559 --> 00:20:38.160 And so negotiations to freedom and Holpy the fighting in 311 00:20:38.200 --> 00:20:43.079 Gaza is still a priority. And as I mentioned earlier, 312 00:20:43.079 --> 00:20:47.000 you know, now there's been this shift in the balance 313 00:20:47.039 --> 00:20:52.559 of power within Hamas since Saintmar's killing that passes the 314 00:20:53.160 --> 00:20:59.799 baton to Harmas is exiled political leadership, which, as I've said, 315 00:20:59.839 --> 00:21:03.839 is is far more in a far more moderate And 316 00:21:03.880 --> 00:21:07.240 then the last time you mentioned the Egyptians, right, and 317 00:21:08.079 --> 00:21:12.559 you know, as being kind of unhelpful, Well, you know, 318 00:21:12.599 --> 00:21:14.480 I think a lot of Israelis might agree with you. 319 00:21:15.119 --> 00:21:21.400 But but interestingly enough, so the Egyptians had a long 320 00:21:21.480 --> 00:21:25.599 time a long time head of their intelligence and this 321 00:21:25.720 --> 00:21:30.079 is quite unusual in any intelligence service, perhaps except for 322 00:21:30.160 --> 00:21:34.720 Western you know, c I A for an intelligence chief 323 00:21:34.839 --> 00:21:42.720 to almost have kind of rock star status. But the 324 00:21:42.839 --> 00:21:46.200 but but a basque Kmal did you know he was 325 00:21:46.319 --> 00:21:50.519 he was very he was very well, he was feared 326 00:21:50.559 --> 00:21:53.839 and feared and revered I suppose within certain circles in 327 00:21:53.960 --> 00:21:56.359 unless a basque kamal, and he's well known to the 328 00:21:56.400 --> 00:22:01.079 Israelis and and they certainly they could negotiate with him, 329 00:22:01.079 --> 00:22:03.599 but there was always a feeling that he, you know, 330 00:22:03.680 --> 00:22:06.359 he was keeping some cards on the side and not 331 00:22:06.440 --> 00:22:10.559 giving you know, a full full court press to Israeli 332 00:22:10.599 --> 00:22:17.160 harmss negotiations. Well, his replacements a guy named Hassan Mahmoud Rashad, 333 00:22:18.000 --> 00:22:23.799 unknown quantity, but certainly determined to prove himself and seems, 334 00:22:25.519 --> 00:22:30.119 you know, for him, the perhaps the sign of success 335 00:22:30.160 --> 00:22:32.440 would be for the negotiations to go ahead, and it 336 00:22:32.480 --> 00:22:35.640 would be just kind of great feather in his cap 337 00:22:35.680 --> 00:22:39.240 if he could make that happen. So the conditions are 338 00:22:39.319 --> 00:22:42.960 ripening for for that to be a peace settlement. That's 339 00:22:43.000 --> 00:22:45.519 not to say that there will be one. 340 00:22:46.240 --> 00:22:47.720 Do you think any of this is going to be 341 00:22:48.359 --> 00:22:51.160 or is being slow rolled for the sake of the 342 00:22:51.240 --> 00:22:53.680 US elections to see what the outcome is going to 343 00:22:53.680 --> 00:22:54.960 be in you know. 344 00:22:55.440 --> 00:22:58.720 Yeah, yeah, that's great. That's a great point, Jason. And 345 00:22:59.319 --> 00:23:01.440 there is no doubt about it that around the world 346 00:23:01.519 --> 00:23:06.079 everyone is watching US election speaker for for possible outcome. 347 00:23:06.119 --> 00:23:08.960 There is no doubt about it that, you know, I 348 00:23:08.960 --> 00:23:13.319 mean Trump and Netne, who are far closer than anyone 349 00:23:13.599 --> 00:23:16.440 likely in the Democratic candidacy. 350 00:23:16.000 --> 00:23:16.240 And. 351 00:23:17.920 --> 00:23:21.279 In fact Netne who has called I mean Trump called Netnia, 352 00:23:21.319 --> 00:23:24.079 who a good man recently, you know, I mean it, 353 00:23:24.240 --> 00:23:27.559 so Israeli certainly have an eye on that. When I 354 00:23:27.559 --> 00:23:29.880 say the Israelis, I shouldn't say that, I shouldn't act 355 00:23:29.920 --> 00:23:32.519 as there you know, homogeneous and all that, But I 356 00:23:32.559 --> 00:23:36.720 mean the right wing of the Lacude Party undoubtedly is 357 00:23:37.279 --> 00:23:41.200 awaiting that eventuality, well possible possibility. 358 00:23:41.720 --> 00:23:42.000 M h. 359 00:23:43.799 --> 00:23:47.839 Are you guys? So before we get into this leak, uh, 360 00:23:49.440 --> 00:23:53.799 which is you know in the end, I mean, like 361 00:23:53.880 --> 00:23:56.680 we've said before, when you look at what was in 362 00:23:56.720 --> 00:24:02.160 that leak, it's nothing really to see, you know. But 363 00:24:02.160 --> 00:24:05.759 but nevertheless the leak itself is significant, I mean top 364 00:24:05.799 --> 00:24:14.720 secret information leak on purpose and and what so what 365 00:24:14.720 --> 00:24:21.279 what this stuff shows and it looks you know, the 366 00:24:21.400 --> 00:24:25.759 if you're following this on on Twitter, you know, there's 367 00:24:26.480 --> 00:24:30.599 there's a a school of thought and Twitter, right, an 368 00:24:30.599 --> 00:24:33.440 informed school of thought that thinks that this came from 369 00:24:33.720 --> 00:24:37.920 the office of the Secretary of Defense himself. You can't 370 00:24:37.960 --> 00:24:41.759 prove that obviously at this stage, because actually, this is 371 00:24:41.799 --> 00:24:44.759 this is stuff that comes from what am I thinking 372 00:24:44.759 --> 00:24:51.960 at Jason, the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency, right, So it's yeah, 373 00:24:52.359 --> 00:25:01.599 it's yeah to which analyzes satellite imagery and also you know, 374 00:25:01.640 --> 00:25:07.039 the the NSA, which which does communications intercepts. So it's 375 00:25:07.039 --> 00:25:09.640 coming from more than one. It's coming from two agencies. 376 00:25:10.119 --> 00:25:12.440 So the leak is likely to have been more central, 377 00:25:13.079 --> 00:25:15.680 but that's not to say that, you know, it could 378 00:25:15.680 --> 00:25:18.240 have come through any number of hands as it was 379 00:25:18.279 --> 00:25:22.079 passed into IST's office. 380 00:25:22.160 --> 00:25:25.720 I was reading that, I'm sorry, Jerusalem. I was reading 381 00:25:25.759 --> 00:25:29.119 a Jerusalem Post or Jerusalem Post that apparently a name 382 00:25:29.200 --> 00:25:33.079 is being floated around as a possible source of the leak, which. 383 00:25:32.880 --> 00:25:34.200 The Pentagon denies. 384 00:25:35.079 --> 00:25:40.480 Her name is Ariyan Tabatabi Tabataba, chief of staff for 385 00:25:40.519 --> 00:25:45.319 the of the Assistant Secretary of Defense will Spressal operations. Again, 386 00:25:45.799 --> 00:25:49.599 Pentagon is saying that's not true. You know, FBI obviously 387 00:25:49.640 --> 00:25:51.359 would have the lead on this, so they would be 388 00:25:51.440 --> 00:25:55.000 the the final sale on whether that's true or not. 389 00:25:55.079 --> 00:25:59.000 But apparently she was under Yeah, she was under fire 390 00:25:59.039 --> 00:26:02.039 back in twenty twenty three, members of Congress. 391 00:26:02.160 --> 00:26:06.960 Yeah, I wanted her Iranian Iranian connections. Yeah, because her Yeah, 392 00:26:07.200 --> 00:26:11.359 her family communication. Yeah so she but I guess she's 393 00:26:11.359 --> 00:26:12.400 in the spotlight again. 394 00:26:13.680 --> 00:26:17.559 Yeah, not not just Iranian family members, but pro Ranian 395 00:26:18.200 --> 00:26:21.359 you know, allegedly pro Iranian family members. Yeah, I remember 396 00:26:21.359 --> 00:26:25.279 all that. Yeah, I I haven't heard anything more on that, 397 00:26:26.680 --> 00:26:31.759 but I do know you know, the documents, Uh, what 398 00:26:31.880 --> 00:26:37.279 they describe it is, it's nothing surprising. It's just you know, 399 00:26:37.359 --> 00:26:40.799 it involves and Jason, I don't even know. Can we 400 00:26:41.079 --> 00:26:42.920 do we talk about it? But finally I don't think 401 00:26:42.920 --> 00:26:43.920